Q4 2022 Lendingtree Inc Earnings Call

Speaker 2: Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Lending Tree 4th, quarter 2022 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session.

Speaker 2: Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Andrew Wessel, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3: Thank you, Michelle, and good morning to everyone joining us on the call this morning to discuss Lending Trade's fourth quarter of 2020 Q's natural results. On the call today are Doug Ledda, Lending Trade's Chairman and CEO , JD Moriarty, President of Marketplace and COO, Trent Ziegler, CFO , and Scott Parid, President of Insurance. As a reminder to everyone, we posted a detailed letter to shareholders on our investor relations website earlier today. And for the purposes of today's call, we will assume that listeners have read that letter and will focus on Q&A. Before I hand the call over to Doug for his remarks, I remind everyone that during today's call we may discuss Lending Trade's expectations for future performance. Any forward-looking statements that we make are subject to risks and uncertainties.

Speaker 4: introduction in the reimagining of the My Lending Tree offering that was announced this morning. We believe the win card offered exclusively to My Lending Tree members will improve user engagement as the 2% cash back feature is only unlocked when cardholders log into their My Lending Tree account. And because the win card is among the first cards to be integrated with our TreeQuall product, we're expecting approval rates to be substantially higher.

Speaker 4: which will also improve our unit economics and customer satisfaction. We have many new features and products like this planned for introduction as we move through 2023 and beyond. The focus of all of this work is to combine our market leading partner network with a best in class customer experience. We believe the innovative products such as the win card in addition to the planned enhancements we are hard at work on will make my lending tree the leading destination for our customers to shop for all of their product needs. Moving on to our results. In the fourth quarter, our insurance division posted excellent results. This can be attributed to initiatives that Scott and our insurance team put in place to focus on higher intent customer traffic to help our insurance partners improve conversion rates.

Speaker 4: Because of this, we were able to capture increased budgets from insurance carriers, and at the same time, reducing marketing costs. The team did a tremendous job executing on all of these projects, which led to margin improvements by a full six points from the third quarter. When carriers spend returns to normalized levels, we expect these initiatives will be rewarded with increased market share. Our home segment, not surprisingly, faces a very challenging part of the interest rate cycle. The Fed's commitment to higher rates to subdue inflation will continue to have a negative impact on new mortgage loan demand.

Speaker 4: Additionally, lenders are seeing lower conversion rates because there is less benefit to refinancing as interest rates rise. Our close integration with our largest partners helps us to quickly pivot to sourcing cash out borrowers who are looking to tap the substantial amount of equity they enjoy as homeowners today. This year we expect cash out transaction will remain the bulk of our revenue opportunity at home. However, our key growth initiative within the segment is to gain share in the purchase market by improving close rates for our partners. To the extent we see a pick up in purchase application rates as we move through the year, we believe this project will have a positive impact on our financial results.

Speaker 4: In our consumer segment, we saw throughout the second half of 2022 lenders tighten underwriting criteria due to higher interest rates and the slowing effect they have on our economy. A stricter credit environment generally leads to lower close rates for our lenders, which reduces our revenue. Despite the decline in fourth quarter consumer revenue, we are able to grow segment profit by relentlessly focusing on unit economics. Our growth initiatives in consumer include completing technology enhancements for our credit card business, which we believe will help to improve financial results going forward.

Speaker 4: In small business, we are also implementing technology solutions to automate capture of applicant financial data, which will help better segment our traffic for our lending partners to also increase close rates. Additionally, we remain intensely focused on operating expenses. We recognize it is a key financial metric that is entirely within our control. The variable marketing model this company was built around is designed to avoid outspending the revenue opportunity available. And similarly, it is our job to properly manage our fixed costs based on our outlook for future revenue.

Speaker 4: We will invest in projects when we see an attractive risk adjusted return. We are doing that currently to support the improved customer experience and our other key growth initiatives. However, we will also move quickly to decreased funding for parts of our business that are unable to meet return targets evidenced by our exit from the reverse mortgage segment in the fourth quarter. For more information, visit www.fema.gov

Speaker 4: This commitment to financial discipline will remain a key tenant of our day-to-day activities as a leadership team. Now, operator, I'd be happy to open the call for questions.

Speaker 2: As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from...

Speaker 3: to kind of reverse that. Maybe can you speak to?

Speaker 3: exactly what you're doing there to help re-accelerate that business in 2023. And then on this obligatory question about large language models and like Chad Gpp and potential So maybe can you at a high level talk about how you're expecting that to impact both the Warn you have been ?mer UWD O B T , C T, JP C T, F C T, F T, B E GA E One L?1s.

Speaker 4: marketplace on the internet. You typically have what we refer to as a click-out model. What we're trying to do there with both Trequal and the WingCard is to have access to the real underwriting criteria of lenders so that we can improve close rates. On AI and ChatGPT, we're using more machine learning and AI right now.

Speaker 4: calls and we have a lot of things on the docket to address that but I would say AI is not one of them yet but as it develops I can certainly see that helping us improve our communications with consumers but we're not there yet.

Speaker 4: J.D.? Just, Yusuf, let me focus on the first credit card question, which is really with regard to our credit card marketplace. We have a tech platform migration going on right now. Internally, we call that to the Lightspeed platform. That will make our page loads be faster. It will make partners interacting with us.

Speaker 4: easier. It will make compliance, which is a very important thing in the credit card world, way more efficient and so benefit for us and for all of our partners. So we're excited that work is going on in Q1. We are on schedule with it and it will probably...

Speaker 4: finish sometime in Q2. Now, that's not the only solution to the credit card business for us. And we've talked about this in the past. We are way too dependent on paid search. And so we need to grow other marketing channels. So we've got actually very good. We're very happy thus far with the progress in both CRM for credit card and specifically for SEO for credit card. Those are two focus areas for us in terms of expanding marketing. Why is that important? Because all of our partners in credit card need us to get to certain volume targets.

Speaker 4: And if we hit those volume targets, we get paid more. And it becomes prohibitively expensive to do that if you were very dependent on one channel. So that's what we're doing in part. The other very important part of becoming more integrated with our partners and delivering them more volume is Trequal. And so we continue to add partners there. It has been admittedly slower than we projected at the beginning of last year. But we think we are on the right track with the solution because ultimately that is driving conversion rates. Right. In a typical experience, a typical click out experience. We redirect a consumer from our site to that of a partner.

Speaker 4: it will get approved, you know, I'd call it, you know, low team percentage rates. When we're talking about something that is pre-approved, it is being, it is converting at an 80% approval rate, right? So that's the definition of higher conversion. That is what we're focused on with 3QAL, and there are different paths for 3QAL with every partner. Each partner is what we found...

Speaker 4: we think we'll be able to take market share, but take market share in a way that does not hinder our financial performance. And the only thing I'd add to what JD said is on the SEO front as you move from our compare from the primary domain name for SEO being compare cards and you move that content over to LendingTree, we expect that

Speaker 4: You have to take a dip first on your SEO traffic, and then as that builds up, we think the LendingTree domain will yield much better performance in SEO over time.

Speaker 2: Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from Jed Kelly with Oppenheimer. Your line is now open. Hey, great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 3: Going to insurance, I think at the end of your shareholder letter, you gave an outlook for insurance, sort of that you're waiting for the carriers to sort of come back. Judging by how some of your competitors have reported, it seems like carriers' spending is sort of accelerating. So can you just talk about the arc of the recovery we should be expecting? And then can you just help us around the unit economics with WNCARD? Thank you. Yeah, hi, this is Scott. I'll start on insurance first and then throw it back to the rest of the team for the WNCARD. But yeah. He doesn't ink for markets.

Speaker 5: On the recovery of insurance, what I would call it and what I've been calling it is we're in the very early innings of the recovery, you know, literally, like, the first inning of the recovery. It is happening. Revenue is going up. There's one large carrier in particular is spending more aggressively than the rest in general. A lot of the rest of the carriers are still proceeding with caution at this point, but the conversations are more and more optimistic. There's more conversations. There's discussions of when and how the spinner's gonna go up. There's testing in certain states with the carriers, but, you know, we're seeing pretty good growth in our auto insurance segment quarter over quarter, going from Q4 to Q1, and as we've been talking about, we've been focused on the unit economics and the V&D of our insurance business instead of trying to over-deliver on the market.

Speaker 4: disclose that we are doing that in partnership with upgrade one of our partners. They will be managing all of the balance sheet, risk, and the credit scoring, etc. We will get a substantial bounty for every car that we've originated through our platform, as well as ongoing share of the interchange. But I guess it relates to

Speaker 4: the financial impact of that. You know, we obviously think it's positive and it will be a contributor this year, but that is more than anything else as much about, you know, it is the first of many features that we think are differentiated and will help us continue to evolve the value prop for My Lending Tree and for our members and continue to drive engagement as we move forward. So expect more of these things as we progress throughout the year. And I would argue that that's, you know, that piece of it is as important, if not more important than the financial impact that we expect to see near term. Yeah, the only thing I would add to that is, if you think about a normal credit card bounty in the industry, but then you can apply higher conversion rates to it, your unit economics should be higher. We believe we can actually market this as a separate panel in proposition.

Speaker 4: And again, as part of the My Lending Tree, as part of being part of My Lending Tree, the 2% cash back, which I referred to as unlocked when you were logging into My Lending Tree once a month, where you're gonna be seeing action to improve your financial life. And we think that'll really help My Lending Tree in total.

Speaker 5: Yeah, I would say, you know, as we look at 23, you know, we would like to keep those margins in the mid to high 30s. You know, when the entire...

Speaker 5: industry starts getting more aggressive and I'm talking about the carrier standpoint. You know, when everyone's back in and playing the news, you may start going a little higher food on the tree where you're trying to get per revenue that is at lower margins. But honestly, a lot of scenarios right now, that revenue isn't always the highest quality traffic and you have to run it at lower margins and the carriers in today's market aren't really begging for it. So we're not trying to force it down the road, so to speak. Sorry, you mid to high 30s forever. Like if you get into serious, like, top-end revenue growth mode and like all the carriers are getting really aggressive, that might change. But I don't foresee that.

Speaker 4: in the next six to nine months. Thank you. And Jed, based on Scott's commentary, I'd say implied in our full year guide is pretty modest revenue growth based on what we're seeing today. Sort of in the mid single digit percent range, but we do assume that those margins hold in kind of the mid to high 30s.

Speaker 2: Obviously, that can evolve as the market evolves throughout the year, but that's our baseline expectation. Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from Chris Kennedy with William Blair. Your line is now open. Please take your seat. How is the spreadland evolving again?

Speaker 4: Good morning and thank you for taking the questions. Can you give us an update on your advertising initiatives that you started last year and kind of what your plans are going forward? Sure, so the advertising we ran last year worked extremely well. It elevated our brand again to in the right direction across all of our metrics. if you say Vend deteriorating in this market but otherwise I figure this may make a total mess easier to equipment and even seekBy

Speaker 4: One of the things that we're doing this quarter is implementing something we call multi-touch attribution, which uses data to allocate your marketing returns over the channels that you run. Right now, we're not looking at any significant brand investment.

Speaker 4: because of the unit economics and where they are, it wouldn't make sense. However, with the win card, we do have Molly Shannon doing some fantastic videos that we can do and put on YouTube and other sites. So we expect to use more of that and we can do that much more inexpensively than running big-

Speaker 4: for this year and thanks for taking the question. Sure, so on capital allocation, so one thing that we're doing, first off, I don't see us doing any acquisitions, Trent can talk more about just other things. We are very, very focused on EBITDA, cashflow generation, maintaining costs and then investing. One of the things that we've done is

Speaker 4: really across all of our products and all of our key initiatives, whether it be Trequal, working on the post-submit mortgage experience, the purchase initiative, the win card, those are all aimed at improving conversion rates, which improves customer satisfaction and gives us more unit economics to go market against.

Speaker 4: Yeah, just add on to that. And the release of the balance sheet and our primary focus is on the elaborate. Obviously all the things don't just hit on our focus on driving near term cash flows. And that is obviously an important part of it, but we are looking at. Of opportunistic ways to retire some to that on the balance sheet.

Speaker 2: Understood. Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from Ryan. Thomas Sello with KBW. Your line is open.

Speaker 3: Hi everyone, thanks for taking the questions. In the mortgage business, I think investors are trying to understand where trough performance shakes out for the core purchase and refi products. So maybe you could discuss at a high level how you're thinking about the glide path for that business.

Speaker 3: What type of environment we would need to see for it to stabilize and recover from here? And if that's solely dependent on rates moving lower to spur refi Or if you think the business has a line of sight to thrive in an environment where refi remains structurally depressed And on the home equity side given how much more significant that business has become It would be helpful to understand how sustainable you think that performance is and perhaps

Speaker 4: where the market will go. The point being, we obviously have been through an awful lot in terms of rate increases and our partners are going through a lot. So one of the things that we track is the behavior of our partners.

Speaker 4: The point being, we obviously have been through an awful lot in terms of rate increases, and our partners are going through a lot. So one of the things that we track is the behavior of our partners, and we watch.

Speaker 4: load officer counts at each of our partners because there was a ton of capacity load officer capacity that was added in 2020 and 2021 and in the consumer direct channel which is the majority of our partners right as opposed to the retail.

Speaker 4: officer counts at each of our partners, because there was a ton of capacity, loan officer capacity that was added in 2020 and 2021. And in the consumer direct channel, which is the majority of our partners, right? As opposed to retail, they tend to focus.

Speaker 4: on refinance and the environment like what we're going through in 2022 and continue to go through is really challenging in terms of getting the conversion rates that they need. And fundamentally, as you know from all the MBA data, there just aren't that many Americans who would benefit from a refinance right now.

Speaker 4: So our assumptions are that refinance for all of the 23 is de minimus. And that is why we are so focused on driving purchase. So how are we going to drive purchase? One of the things we have observed is that starting around the second quarter of 2020,

Speaker 4: our market share in purchase started to drop off. And it started to drop off largely because of the behavior of our partners, right? They were focused on refinance because it converted and that was where they could make money. And so, critically, we looked at ourselves last year and said, okay, we've got to regain share in purchase. So we looked at ourselves last year and we looked at ourselves last year and we looked at ourselves last year and

Speaker 4: That's hard to do because purchase has a longer journey from when the consumer comes to our site to when they actually convert. One of the things we're trying to do is get better information as to where that consumer is in there.

Speaker 4: in their process, right, if they are late in the funnel closer to buying a home, closing on a home, we want to know that and share that information with our partners that will make them convert better. So that is our...

Speaker 4: Fundamentally, that is our strategy why we're so focused on purchase, because we're assuming that refi does not come back anytime soon. We've been thrilled with the performance of home equity. Two years ago, I don't think anybody in our company thought that a home equity product could reach the scale that it has reached.

Speaker 4: And what we're encouraged by is that many of our lender partners are adding that product. And so we're getting to real home equity, right? Historically, we talked about the fact that we had lenders who would buy volume from us of consumers interested in home equity and try to convince them.

Speaker 4: to do a cash out refinance. That still goes on. It's just a lesser percentage than it used to be.

Speaker 4: Right. And so the health of the home equity product is quite good. We're really happy with the progress that we've made there as a replacement.

Speaker 4: We obviously would love to see an environment where we're not so dependent on it. Now one thing we obviously focus on with home equity is it is, they are smaller loan sizes than typical purchase or refi.

And so our unity got mixed there. That's one of the things we've been watching closely. The flip side of that is many of our lenders were recently having dialogue with lenders who think they can close more quickly on home equity. So this automation is helping the growth in that market, which is great.

So, as you think about our guide, we've been very conservative with respect to revise. We do think there's just some pure market share in purchase. Purchase is always weak in the beginning of the year, and it will start to lift in March and April . We want to be prepared for purchase season.

And then, you know, we've assumed that we can hold the performance of home equity. And we're just trying to navigate this home segment right now. I will say I had a lender say to me in early to mid-January, they said, you know, what we achieved last week was our best week in seven.

And we were thrilled, but obviously we've seen rates jump even since then. And we have to kind of navigate this cycle with our partners.

So when you see a little bit of a give back in rates, we're encouraged not because all of a sudden there's some huge pool of refinance, but we know that it does help our lenders with respect to lender help.

And that's what I think we're going to be in for that for the remainder of 23. And, you know, our guide on home.

I think we're going to be in for that for the remainder of 23. And, you know, our guide on home.

Yeah, we're very conservative there. We think that it's gonna be entirely, mostly home equity throughout the year. And the only thing I'd add to it, JD, so I just put a finer point, a couple things. So just think about consumer behavior. You're coming in, looking to refinance your entire $400,000 house. You've got a mortgage rate from four years ago. That's where the consumer benefit doesn't make sense to refinance, but your home value's gone up. So a second mortgage makes a lot of sense. Then you flip to the lender side. The last time we had home equity growth like this was literally 2001 to 2009 until the...

until the housing market had a major correction, as we all know. And it wasn't until losses from lenders mounted in the second mortgage business until they pulled back. And now what we're seeing is a resurgence of that. As J.D. said, some of our consumer direct lenders are getting back into that business. It can be highly automated.

oftentimes doesn't require complete appraisal. So that gets re-automated. We expect that to help us out as refinancing your entire mortgage doesn't make sense. Thanks, appreciate all that color. And then second one for me on the expense side, can you put a finer point around the additional levers you have to pull from here depending how performance trends.

throughout 23, you know, perhaps you could quantify, you know, a range of the additional cost that you think you could theoretically remove from the system and also what type of environment we would need to see in order for those plans to start to be more seriously considered. Thanks. Yeah, I'll start and then I'll let Trent put some details. I doubt we're gonna we're gonna give you a range, but I could tell you that we're continually looking at things as we move to a more project oriented company with our quarterly cycles I talked about. You are investing on a variable basis on a few things that you think are going to move the needle and then everything else is quote-unquote fixed and

And we're taking a continuous and very hard look at that. Trent? Yeah, I just sort of continuing what Doug said, right? We've obviously taken some actions throughout the last 12 months in the form of workforce reductions and otherwise. Really, when you get past advertising, which obviously we'll continue to look at and optimize the advertising line on it as well, but beneath that, the vast majority of our fixed expenses are people and our technology.

businesses continue to get tougher, right? We've got to raise that hurdle rate and draw a bit of a harder line as to what we're choosing to invest in. And so that's the approach that we're taking.

We'll get the next question please. Please stand by for our next question.

Our next question comes from John Campbell with Stevens. Your line is now open.

Hey guys, good morning. Good job. Hey, within consumer, I mean if we back out personal loans, credit cards, and small business, I think that implied consumer other was up pretty sharp, I think 28% year over year. That's now about a fourth of the mix, so curious about what drove the strength there and how you're thinking about that other business within consumer for the rest of the year.

Sorry, John , consumer X personal loans and what else? I'm sorry. X personal loans, credit cards and SMBs, just the ones, you know, the larger businesses you guys typically call out. I mean, if I look at that kind of implied bucket of other, that's about a 28% growth rate. So really good results there. Just curious about the structure of that stream. Yeah. I think we've seen, um,

So under the hood growth in two areas. One unsurprisingly would be our deposit business, right? As interest rates continue to rise, there's more interest in shopping around yields on checking savings and CD rates. So the relative scale of that is not huge, but that continues to be an area from a MAC risk.

a personal loan or in another product perhaps don't meet the criteria for those loans, we offer subsequent solutions to them in the form of credit repair or debt relief based on their needs. That's been an area that has grown a little bit throughout the last year.

Okay, that's helpful. And then from a strategic standpoint, I guess also from a modeling standpoint, I saw you guys mentioned you're discontinuing the reverse mortgage business. I guess first, why now? And then secondly, how much revenue did that contribute in 2022? And any kind of discussion on segment margin or VMM impact? Yeah, John , that business was one that we stood up several years ago, and the opportunity there has...

simplify the business in many respects and focus it on the core value drivers. That's one that, relative to my comment earlier about raising the hurdle rate, they didn't quite meet it. That's just a business where we can streamline focus and resources into bigger priorities.

Go ahead, J.D., sorry. John , I just get that. I think, you know, as Trent said, financially it's not a needle mover, but what we're doing is looking at all of our businesses and saying okay, what's the natural margin in this business? What's the opportunity in the business relative to the partner set?

And then what does it do in terms of burden on our fixed costs or impact on our fixed costs, right? So, when we talk about our cost structure, these things are closely aligned, right? We're trying to make sure that we're in the right segments where we're getting maximum leverage off of our fixed costs. And if there is…

do in terms of burden on our fixed costs or impact on our fixed costs, right? So when we talk about our cost structure, these things are closely aligned, right? We're trying to make sure that we're in the right segments where we're getting maximum leverage off of our fixed costs. And if there is a cost...

A hidden cost aspect, right, associated with being in a business that's not delivering a big impact, we want to redeploy those six costs or cut them, right? And so it's obviously reverse in of itself is not a big impact, but it's indicative of the scrutiny that we're putting them into the whole business. Next, guys. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from Rob Wildhack with a Tornumist Researcher line that's now open.

Good morning, guys. You called out some competitive factors on the credit card side. Obviously, a lot going on in that space, whether it's Trequal or competing products, different business models. Now you even have a competitor paying out consumers who don't get approved. Bigger picture, can you just share how you think about the competitive landscape and positioning there and really the rationality of it all right now?

Rob, could you repeat the last part of that question? I apologize. It should nearly have tailed off. Just curious how you are thinking about the competitive landscape in credit card and really the rationality of it with all these different offerings that are out there. At the end of the day, we are trying to, we are coming at credit card where it is a small business relative to our portfolio businesses, relative to our competitors. The competitor that you are mentioning.

is obviously credit karma. That's I believe what you're referring to when they talk about the guarantee, where cards are assured. That's an extension of their lightbox pre-approval.

and they've just changed the verbiage around it to assure somebody the degree of guarantee that they would actually get the card. Now, why are we doing 3QAL? One, for consumers we think it's a better outcome, right? We don't like a Lending Tree consumer coming to our experience, clicking out and having...

effectively a 80 plus percent chance of being denied a card. That's not great for us, and, you know, it's fine for our partners because they only pay us on approvals, but it's not great for customer experience. So, Trigual started from that perspective. Now, ultimately, though, for our partners to want to deal with Credit Karma, NerdWallet, ourselves, and others, they need to get volume, right? There's no point in working with us if they can't get volume from us.

So we are from a marketplace perspective embarking on a strategy to increase the volume we can get them at a reasonable price. And so we just need to diversify the marketing channels to do that. Trequal is going to rely on our My Lending Tree base, right, largely. And then there are opportunities to use Trequal in our existing experiences that we're actually quite excited about....

So for instance, a consumer could be coming in and looking for a given product. Let's say they're looking for a personal loan, but the size of the loan they're looking for doesn't really make sense for a personal loan. And we can show them a card that they are pre-approved for. That we think would be a good experience for the consumer and it's another opportunity to drive volume.

and we need to get better there. Now core to your question is the competition in the card space?

Interestingly, we're coming into this.

where it's a very small part of our overall business. So any incrementality is improvement.

That is a business that is in the, from a margin perspective, for us, it operates in the P.

So if we can take market share and even just hold our current margin profile, which obviously we want to improve over time.

we can see great gains in credit card that are meaningful for us, perhaps less meaningful for some of our competitors who started from cards. So that is, that's our strategy. Now, when we talk about the competition, we probably talk about that competition more than others.

because we feel it more than others, because we're so dependent on search.

As we diversify our marketing mix for the card business, it won't be quite as profound. But that's where we are today and we've been very candid about that. We need to improve that. So there are a number of aspects to it. There's a tech aspect, that's the lightspeed migration. There's a marketing aspect that's developing the other channels. And then there's a new product aspect and that is treat wall. That's the strategy. And the only thing I would add to that, if you first off, we relate to the credit card business.

of the carmen's white box. Our response to that is trequal, the wind guard.

lightbox. Our response to that is treewall, the wind guard, the lightspeed

Tech work that JD talked about and SEO on LendingTree and the nice thing is with you know our competitors being public we get to you know, see the target of where we want to head and We're very focused on it Thanks, that's really helpful Just a quick one, you know I think we have some at least qualitative commentary on insurance in home as it relates to 23

from a revenue-grass standpoint, and then we assume pretty consistent margin relative to what we saw last year.

Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from Melissa Wiedel with JP Morgan. Your line is now open.

some organic growth from my lending tree there. So as we think about margin into 23, should we be thinking sort of mid 40s or a sort of a normalized run rate, or are you looking at 4Q given the current mix?

across products is something that's a more sustainable run rate. Yeah, I'd say, Melissa, for mid to high 40s, and if you unpack the moving pieces within that, right, you've got the personal business is a

is business that's incredibly high margin for us. The current environment with everything going on in the macros, where rates moving higher and the health of the lenders in that space, there are just the orientation of the lenders in that space such that they are sort of protecting their current portfolios as opposed to.

you know, interested in massive origination growth. The unit economics and personal loans are harder, right? And so we have to be conscious of the impact of that on the margin profile. Obviously, that's a big driver of the segment. That said, you know, there are other areas where we're seeing really good margins. All the work that we just talked about around the credit card business are clearly intended to improve the margins of that business, but the margins there are not great today. But we're doing a lot of work that we think improves them.

Small business is the other big driver within consumer. That's an incredibly high margin business for us. We think that is an increasing contributor to the segment as we progress throughout this year. To sum it all up, I think we did 44 percent margins in consumer. On the full year last year, we did 48 percent margins in the fourth quarter. Somewhere between those two is our going in expectation for 23. Okay, that's really helpful. Thanks, Trent.

And then I guess as a follow up on tree quality, are you able to share with us just sort of on an aggregate partner basis what percentage of partners are now participating in the tree quality platform and what portion D of left to convert? Sure. Well, it's, it's, it's been the single digit area right now, but it's actually not really how we're looking at it. We're looking at it as partners who can offer us.

broader coverage, right, in terms of the cards that they represent, depending on whether that card is intended for, you know, super prime, prime, mid-prime, or sub-prime. And so we want to be able to match up with partners who have an array of cards. That's why we're excited about getting upgrades onto the network, as we mentioned in the letter, because they're bringing five cards to us. Obviously, over time, we want to have all of our partners working on some form of pre-qual.

And what we were excited about in the third and fourth quarter of last year is the momentum in terms of just pipeline of dialogue with partners. We're getting more visibility as to how partners want to work with us. Right now there's a path for pre-qual that is working with a third party, trusted third party that many of the card issuers work with today.

They work with them on direct mail. And so that is kind of the easiest path. And that was why we went down that path.

not all of our partners, however, want to work with it that way. Some of us want to do embedded integrations with us without a third party involved. And so that takes more time to work on from a technology perspective on both sides with us and the partner. But it's obviously without come when we get there. So I'd say that the dialogue has increased. We're happy about upgrade.

and we're happy with the existing partners and the results that they're experiencing. But as we look at our, let's put it this way, the

The natural impact of tree qual will manifest itself in credit card, potentially down the road in personal loans. It is not in our...

In our 23 guide in any material way. We look at this as a year of onboarding partners. And we know that we will have a healthier credit card business on the back of it. But with our guide is not dependent on incremental revenue from frequent.

question. Our next question comes from Mike Grundle with North Lynn Capital Market. Your line is now open.

Hey, thanks guys. I wanted to dig into the strategy a little bit. I think the tree branded win card is the first time you've put your name on a product.

And you mentioned more products to come.

Are you trying to put one of these tree branded products in each vertical? Or how should we think about kind of the rollout and some of the new products that will be coming over the course of the year?

Yeah, so I'll start in another JD will follow up as well. So think of my lending tree, I've talked about this before, as bringing the best customer experience to the consumer and that's why we launched a branded card there.

as opposed to having our My Lending Tree members be clicking out to search for cards and not getting approved. We think it's a great product. We think it's best in class. It's innovative. I've always wanted to do this, but we hadn't found a set of offerings that we thought would be different in the industry.

lending tree, you could expect us not necessarily to always do a single product offering, but I would say that whatever we do on my lending tree, we want it to be the best in class product so that consumers come back to us again and again without us having to be as dependent on paid marketing to continually drive people back into the marketplace.

I think that. You know what I would add Mike is, you know, we spent a lot of time last year doing consumer research on what specific financial jobs consumers would trust us with. Of course, there were these.

We've got, as Doug mentioned, it's kind of a multi-year approach. We've got eight or so products that we would expect to launch over a multi-year period. So you don't expect eight this year, but effectively the win card is the first one. And the theme is really the adjacency to why somebody came to LendingTree in the first place. And what somebody, what problem they're trying to address. So I don't think it's specifically going to be a

product for every vertical area that we have, we will roll these out really relative to what we think is the most adjacent thing. We don't want it to become a feature factory. We want it to be things that genuinely add value for the consumer and drive engagement. I was thinking about it earlier, you think about historically, we talked about

pushing our consumers and my lending free to connect their accounts. And you know, you could come in and use Plaid to connect your accounts. And there was obviously potential benefit for us in terms of the information that we were gathering, but there wasn't really anything on the other side for the consumer. Right? And if you think about what we're doing with the win card, we're saying, here are these financial behaviors where we know you will be better off on the other side.

And if you come and log in and show engagement with us, you'll get your cash back. And we know that we're gonna improve your credit score and your access to other financial products over time. Our research showed that that would resonate with our consumer base and with the consumers who we want to be in my lending tree. So the wind card is indicative of...

how we're trying to position ourselves with consumers, which is access to more products over time, because of good sound for the age of behavior. And so you can envision that we're going to be helping consumers over time address their debt stack, address which debt they should pay off first, that sort of thing, and really be an advocate for the consumer. That's where we want, that's where we want to be. We talk often internally about being a digital ally for the consumer. And the wind card is the start of that. Got it, got it, thanks. And I'm trying to understand, is it?

kind of a pivot or the beginning of a big new direction for you guys, you know, legacy was sort of when banks compete, you win. And now it's more of a, hey, you might have a financial need. We got a product to meet that. I'm just trying to understand that evolution. Yeah. Yeah. So again, think of the marketplace and my lending tree as, you know, too, as connected, but also separate. So when you come to lending tree, when banks can be to beat you in and expect to see.

choice in comparison shopping. When you upgrade to my lending tree, you expect to get instantly approved because we have all of your credit data. We've been giving you a free credit score probably for multiple months and a lender integrated with us can be really interesting stuff on the underwriting side.

enough to cover really most of the credit spectrum, the approval rate aspect, improve the unit economics and the features of it are targeted to exactly what my lending tree is, which is a financial journey and ally to help you improve your financial standing and get you the best offers at the lowest price. And Mike, just from a marketplace strategy perspective.

Those are click-out businesses where we're not really delivering a lot of information on the consumer.

we are authenticated in small business. We spend a lot of time talking about how much value are we delivering to our partners in terms of the type of information on that consumer where they can make informed lending decisions.

So that's the strategy within Marketplace, or Marketplace businesses, I should say. If you think about the strategy that Doug is articulating for My Lending Tree, it's very consumer centric. Right? And historically, we have been guilty of really thinking about My Lending Tree as more of a marketing channel. So …

may have a slightly different strategy that is very oriented towards partners and what they want to see, you can understand how the two interact, right? At the end of the day, Trequal is all about authentication in the marketplace.

The wind card, but it's also on the consumer side about giving you an assured outcome as opposed to a potential denial. The wind card is about that as well. And so I actually think the two strategies work hand in hand quite well. And that's actually the best approach that we could take.

Got it. Hey, that explanation was really helpful. Thanks guys. Please stand by for our next question.

Our next question comes from Jamie Freedom with Susquehanna International Group. Your line is now open. Hi. Good results in a difficult environment. I just wanted to ask if you could possibly Trent, double click on the...

assumptions on page 8 in the shareholder letter, especially or specifically, if you could, with regard to the quarterly cadence. I realize we have the first quarter, we've got the year, but some of these segments have what look like increasingly easy comps.

So, since we have to quarterize our models for this year, any call outs you could make on the segments by quarter. Thank you. Yeah, Jamie, totally fair question. Obviously the. You know, the Q1 guide relative to the full year guide implies. Some improvement throughout the year, a couple couple things going on there, I guess.

as we progress throughout the year. The other big one is obviously within home and within mortgage in particular, given our increased reliance on purchase within that business, that's a business that clearly we expect to be better in the in the role.

spring and summer home buying season than in the first couple months of the year. Okay, I show no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the conference back to Doug for closing remarks. Great, I'll make this brief.

This company right now, as I characterize 2023, is really the year of discipline and execution. I want to also everybody to know that we're confident in our position. We've been through this twice before as financial markets have corrected. This is a longer one and the diversification that we have put in place over the last few years has certainly helped Bullwork the company in what's a very, very tough environment.

And what I can tell you is this entire company doesn't like to lose. We love winning. We're very focused. The teams are all working hard. We're getting stuff done at the lowest cost as fast as possible with new ways of working together. And the team, the entire company is highly energized. We're getting people back to the office post-COVID. And we feel very confident that we can do better.

work and do the best we can. Thank you all very, very much. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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There will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press store 1-1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand to trace. To withdraw your question, please press store 1-1 again.

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Andrew Wessel, Vice President Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Thank you, Michelle. Good morning to everyone joining us on the call this morning to discuss LendingTreat's fourth quarter of 2020 Q- I'm Andrew Wessel, LendingTreat's Chairman and CEO .

J.D. Moriarty, President of Marketplace and COO, Trend Ziegler, CFO , and Scott Parikh, President of Insurance. As a reminder to everyone, we posted a detailed letter to shareholders on our Investor Relations website earlier today, and for the purposes of today's call, we will assume that listeners have read that letter and will focus on Q&A.

Before I hand the call over to Doug for his remarks, I remind everyone that during today's call we may discuss Lending Tree's expectations for future performance. Any forward-looking statements that we make are subject to risks and uncertainties, and Lending Tree's actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Many but not all of the risks we face are described in our periodic reports filed with the FCC. We will also discuss a variety of non-GAAP measures on the call today, and I refer you to today's press release and shareholder letter, both available on our website, for the comparable GAAP definitions and full reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to GAAP.

login to their MyOpenToTheirLendingTree account. And because the win card is among the first cards to be integrated with our TreeQuall product, we are expecting approval rates to be substantially higher, which will also improve our unit economics and customer satisfaction.

We have many new features and products like this planned for introduction as we move through 2023 and beyond. The focus of all of this work is to combine our market leading partner network with a best in class customer experience. We believe the innovative products such as the win card in addition to the planned enhancements we are hard at work on will make my lending tree the leading destination for our customers to shop for all of their product needs.

Moving on to our results. In the fourth quarter, our insurance division posted excellent results. This can be attributed to initiatives that Scott and our insurance team put in place to focus on higher intent customer traffic to help our insurance partners improve conversion rates. Because of this, we were able to capture increased budgets from insurance carriers and at the same time, reducing marketing costs. The team did a tremendous job executing on all of these projects, which led to margin improvements by a full six points from the third quarter. When carriers spend returns to normalized levels, we expect these initiatives will be rewarded with increased market share.

Our home segment, not surprisingly, faces a very challenging part of the interest rate cycle. The Fed's commitment to higher rates to subdue inflation will continue to have a negative impact on new mortgage loan demand. Additionally, lenders are seeing lower conversion rates because there is less benefit to refinancing as interest rates rise. A close integration with our largest partners helps us to quickly pivot to sourcing cash out borrowers who are looking to cap the substantial amount of equity they enjoy as homeowners today. This year, we expect cash out transaction will remain the bulk of our revenue opportunity in the home. However, our key growth initiative within the segment is to gain share in the purchase market by improving close rates for our partners. To the extent we see a pickup in purchase application rates as we move through the year, we believe this project will have a positive impact on our financial results.

In our consumer segment, we saw throughout the second half of 2022, lenders tighten underwriting criteria due to higher interest rates and the slowing effect they have on our economy. A stricter credit environment generally leads to lower close rates for our lenders, which reduces our revenue. Despite the decline in fourth quarter consumer revenue, we are able to grow segment profit by relentlessly focusing on unit economics. Our growth initiatives in consumer include completing technology enhancements for our credit card business, which we believe will help to improve financial results going forward. In small business, we are also implementing technology solutions to automate capture of applicant financial data, which will help better set segment our traffic for our lending partners to also increase close rates. Additionally, we remain intensely focused on operating expenses.

We recognize it is a key financial metric that is entirely within our control. The variable marketing model this company was built around is designed to avoid outspending the revenue opportunity available. And similarly, it is our job to properly manage our fixed costs based on our outlook for future revenue. We will invest in projects when we see an attractive risk adjusted return. We are doing that currently to support the improved customer experience and our other key growth initiatives. However, we will also move quickly to decrease funding for parts of our business that are unable to meet return targets evidenced by our exit from the reverse mortgage segment in the fourth quarter. This commitment to financial discipline will remain a key tenet of our day-to-day activities as a leadership team.

Now operator, I'd be happy to call for questions. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please send by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from you.

exactly what you're doing there to help reaccelerate that business in 2023. And then on this obligatory question about large language models and like chat GPT and potential impacts on the business. So maybe can you at a high level talk about how you're expecting that to impact both the search for financial products, etc.

So the demand side, but also on the content creation side, which could actually be a nice, or potentially a good. AI chat GPT. Yeah, thank you. Sure, so I got a card and I got AI slash chat GPT, right? Yep. If I got that correct. So on card, and I'll let JD chime in here, I'll hit the high level high notes. With every credit card marketplace on the.

using more machine learning and AI right now, although it's something that we would potentially want to look at. One of the key initiatives that we have is we talked a lot about close rates and if you dig into mortgage, which is a long cycle.

as it develops, I could certainly see that helping us improve our communications with consumers, but we're not there yet. JD. Just Yusef, let me focus on the first credit card question, which is really with regard to our credit card marketplace. We have a tech platform migration going on right now. Internally, we call that to the light speed.

platform that will make our page loads be faster. It will make partners interacting with us easier. It will make compliance, which is a very important thing in the credit card world, way more efficient and so benefit for us and for all of our partners. So we're excited that work is going on in Q1. We are on schedule with it and it will probably finish sometime in Q2.

Now, that's not the only solution to the credit card business for us, and if we talk about this in the past, we are way too dependent on paid search.

And so we need to grow other marketing channels. So we've got actually very good. We're very happy thus far with the progress in both CRM for credit card and specifically for SEO for credit card. Those are two focus areas.

for us in terms of expanding marketing. Why is that important? Because all of our partners in credit card need us to get to certain volume targets. And if we hit those volume targets.

we get paid more. And it becomes prohibitively expensive to do that if you are very dependent on one channel. So that's what we're doing in part. The other very important part of...

becoming more integrated with our partners and delivering them more volume is trepohaw. And so we continue to add partners there. It has been admittedly slower than we projected at the beginning of last year, but we think we are on the right track with the solution because ultimately that is driving conversion rates, right? In a typical experience, a typical click-out experience.

we redirect a consumer from our site to that of a partner and it will get approved, you know, let's call it low team percentage rates. When we're talking about something that is pre-approved, it is being, it is converting at an 80% approval rate. Right? So that's the definition of higher conversion.

That is what we're focused on with 3Qua and there are different paths for 3Qua with every partner. Each partner is what we found, what we've learned over the last year as partners want to work with us in different ways. All of which we view to be an improvement over the current status quo. And so Cara did you look at our, you know, each of our big businesses? It is the one that needs the most work in terms of...

what I'll call the structural margin profile. As we fix that, we think we'll be able to take market share but take market share in a way that does not hinder our financial performance. And the only thing I'd add to what JD said is on the SEO front, as you move from our compare, from the primary domain name for SEO being compare cards, and you move that content over to LendingTree, we expect that you have to take a dip.

first on your SEO traffic. And then as that builds up, we think the LendingTree domain will yield much better performance in SEO over time. Thank you. Please stand by for our next question.

Our next question comes from Jed Kelly with Oppenheimer. Your line is now open. Hey, great. Thanks for taking my questions. Going to insurance, I think at the end of your shareholder letter, you're going to have

You gave an outlook for insurance, sort of that you're waiting for the carriers to come back. Judging by how some of your competitors have reported, it seems like carriers' spending is accelerating. Can you just talk about the arc of the recovery we should be expecting? And then, can you just help us around the unit economics with WinCard? Thank you.

Yeah, this is Scott. I'll start on insurance first and then throw it back to the rest of the team for the win card. But, yeah. On the recovery of insurance, what I would call it and what I've been calling it is we're in the very early innings of the recovery, literally, like the 1st, ending of the recovery. It is happening. Revenue is going up.

One large carrier in particular is spending more aggressively than the rest in general. A lot of the rest of the carriers are still proceeding with caution at this point, but the conversations are more and more optimistic. There's more conversations, there's discussions of when and how the spin is gonna go up. There's testing in certain states with the carriers, but.

You know, we're seeing pretty good growth in our auto insurance segment, quarter over quarter, going from Q4 to Q1. And as we've been talking about, we've been focused on the economics and the V&D of our insurance business, instead of trying to over deliver on budget, which we're asking for, we're focusing on the quality of traffic, we're sending the clients and the profitability of that traffic. I think we're doing a very good job of that. And for the carriers in general, even the carrier that's gotten a lot more aggressive, at some level, they're still conservative and concerned about profit, very concerned about profitability. And it's not just like pedal to the metal.

So, you know, I do expect the recovery to continue. It's going to probably take 9 to 18 months in total for, like, the entire industry to be fully back at a full bore, but it is happening, yes. Hey, Jay, this is Trent. I'll hit on economics on the win card. I guess what I'd say is, you know, the way that that's going to work, obviously, we've already disclosed that we are doing that.

But that is more than anything else as much about, you know, it is the first of many features that we think are differentiated and will help us continue to evolve the value prop for my lending tree and for our members and continue to drive engagement as we move forward. So expect more of these things as we progress throughout the year, and I would argue that that's

you know, that piece of it is as important, if not more important than the financial impact that we expect to see near term. Yeah, the only thing I would add to that is if you think about a normal credit card bounty in the industry, but then you can apply higher conversion rates to it, your unit economics should be higher. We believe we can actually market this as a separate stand-alone proposition. And again, it's part of the My Lending Tree, as part of being part of My Lending Tree, the 2% cash back, which I referred to as unlocked when you were logging into My Lending Tree once a month.

As we look at 23, we would like to keep those margins in the mid to high 30s. When the entire

you know, we would like to keep those margins in the mid to high 30s. You know, when the entire industry

starts getting more aggressive. And I'm talking about from a carrier standpoint, you know, when everyone's back in and playing, then you may start going a little higher fruit on the tree where you're trying to get per revenue that is at lower margins. But honestly, in a lot of scenarios right now, that revenue isn't always the highest quality traffic and you have to run it at lower margins and the carriers in today's market aren't really begging for it. So we're not trying to force it down the throats, so to speak. So you're mid to high 30s forever, like if you get into serious.

like, hop in revenue growth mode, and like, all the carriers start getting really aggressive, that might change, but I don't foresee that, you know, in the next six to nine months.

Thanks, Jed. Based on Scott's commentary, I'd say implied in our full year guide is pretty modest revenue growth based on what we're seeing today. Sort of in the mid single digit percent range, but we do assume that those margins hold in kind of the mid to high 30s. Obviously, that can evolve as the market evolves throughout the year, but that's our baseline expectation.

Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from Chris Kennedy with William Blair. Your line is now open.

Good morning and thank you for taking the questions. Can you give us an update on your advertising initiatives that you started last year and kind of what your plans are going forward?

Sure, so the advertising we ran last year worked extremely well. It elevated our brand again in the right direction across all of our metrics. One of the things that we're moving, we're doing this quarter, is implementing something we call multi-touch attribution.

which uses data to allocate your marketing returns over the channels that you run. So right now, we're not looking at any significant brand investment because of the unit economics and where they are. It wouldn't make sense.

running big brand on on TV and and that will happen as the Uniteconomics get better and demand returns, but I'm I'm I'm guessing that's going to be when interest rates are to fall a little bit. Okay, very helpful. And then just an update on your capital allocation priorities for this year. And thanks for taking the question.

Sure, so on capital allocation, so one thing that we're doing, first off I don't see us doing any acquisitions Trent can talk more about just other things. We are very, very focused on EBITDA, cash flow generation.

maintaining costs and then investing. One of the things that we've done is we've moved to a quarterly planning cycle where every three months we are prioritizing initiatives based on where we expect the returns to be and we're willing to make pivots inside of the quarter.

And right now we're working, as I said earlier, on improving conversion rates really across all of our products and all of our key initiatives, whether it be Trequal, working on the post-submit mortgage experience, the purchase initiative, the win card. Those are all aimed at improving conversion rates, which improves customer satisfaction and gives us more unit economics to go market against. Yeah, I'll just add on to that.

As it relates to the balance sheet, our primary focus is on the elaborate. Obviously, all the things Doug just hit on are focused on driving near-term cash flows, and that is obviously an important part of it, but we are looking at sort of opportunistic ways to retire some of that on the balance sheet.

Understood. Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from Ryan. Tom Acello with KBW. Your line is open. Hi everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. In the mortgage business, I think investors are trying to understand where TORRF performance shakes out for the core purchase and refive products. So maybe you could discuss at a high level how you're thinking about the glide path for that business. What type of environment we would need to see for it to stabilize and recover from here.

And if that's solely dependent on rates moving lower to spur refi, or if you think the business has a line of sight to thrive in an environment where refi remains structurally depressed. And on the home equity side, given how much more significant that business has become, it would be helpful to understand how sustainable you think that performance is and perhaps how much more runway there could be for growth. Thanks. Well, hey Ryan, it's JD. Thanks for the question. It's a good one.

Obviously, when we think about the year ahead, we want to be able to manage the business without making a huge projection on where the market will go. The point being we obviously have been through an awful lot in terms of rate increases and our partners are going through a lot. So one of the things that we track is the behavior of our partners.

and we watch load officer counts at each of our partners because there was a ton of capacity, load officer capacity that was added in 2020 and 2021. And in the consumer direct channel, which is the majority of our partners, right? As opposed to resale, they tend to focus on the consumer direct channel, which is the majority of our partners, right? As opposed to resale, they tend to focus

on refinance and the environment like what we're going, what we went through in 22 and we continue to go through is really challenging in terms of getting the conversion rates that they need and you know, fundamentally as you know from all the MBA data, there just aren't that many Americans who would benefit from a refinance right now. So our assumptions are that refinance for

So all of the 23 is diminimous. And that is why we are so focused on driving purchase. So how are we going to drive purchase? One of the things we've observed is that starting around the second quarter of 2020, our market share in purchase started to drop off. And it started to drop off largely because of the behavior of our partners. Right? They were focused on refinance because it's converted and that was where they could make money. And so critically, we looked at ourselves last year and said, okay, we've got to regain share in purchase.

That's hard to do because purchase has a longer journey from when the consumer comes to our site to when they actually convert. Well, one of the things we're trying to do is get better information as to where that consumer is in their process, right? If they are late in the funnel, closer to buying a home, closing on a home, we wanna know that and share that information with our partners that will make them convert better. So that is our, fundamentally that is our strategy and why we're so focused on purchase and we're assuming that refi is.

volume from us of consumers interested in home equity and try to convince them to do a cash-out refinance. That still goes on. It's just a lesser percentage than it used to be. Right? And so the health of the home equity product.

is quite good. We're really happy with the progress that we've made there as a replacement. We obviously would love to see an environment where we're not so dependent on it. Now one thing we obviously focus on with home equity is it is, they are smaller loan sizes than typical purchase or refi. And so are the unity comics there?

That's more of things we've been watching closely. The flip side of that is many of our lenders who are recently having dialogue with lenders who think they can close more quickly on home equity.

Since automation is helping the growth in that market, which is great. So as you think about our guide, we've been very conservative with respect to refi. We do think there's just some pure market share and purchase. This is always weak in the beginning of the year.

and it will start to lift in March and April . We want to be prepared to purchase season. And then, you know, we've assumed that we can hold the performance of home equity. And we're just trying to navigate this home segment right now. I will say I had a lender say to me in...

You know, early to mid January , they said, well, last week was our best week in seven. And we were thrilled, but obviously we've seen rates jump even since then. And we have to kind of navigate this cycle with our partners.

So when you see a little bit of a give back in rates, we're encouraged not because all of a sudden there's some huge pool of refinance, but we know that it does help our lenders with respect to lender help.

And that's what I think we're going to be in for that for the remainder of 23. And, you know, our guide on home.

Yeah, we're very conservative there. We think that it's going to be entirely, mostly home equity throughout the year. And the only thing I'd add to it, JD, just to put a finer point, a couple things. So just think about consumer behavior. You're coming in looking to refinance your entire $400,000 house. You've got a mortgage rate from four years ago. That's where the consumer benefit doesn't make sense to refinance, but your home value's gone up. So a second.

until they pulled back. And now what we're seeing is a resurgence of that. As JD said, some of our consumer direct lenders are getting back into that business. It can be highly automated, oftentimes doesn't require complete appraisals. So that gets re-automated. We expect that to help us out as we finance.

refinancing your entire mortgage as it picks up. Thanks, appreciate all that color. And then second one for me on the expense side, can you put a finer point around the additional levers you have to pull from here, pending how performance trends throughout 23, perhaps you could quantify a range of the additional costs that you think you could theoretically remove from the system and also what type of environment we would need to see in order for those plans to start to be more seriously considered. Thanks. Yeah, I'll start and then I'll let Trent put some details. I doubt we're going to give you a range, but I can tell you that we're continually looking.

You know, really when you get past advertising, which obviously will look at and optimize the advertising line on as well, but beneath that, the vast majority of our fixed expenses are people and our technology stack, right? And so some of those things are easier to move the needle on than others. But as Doug said,

We sort of look at the body of work that we have going on and sort of the best that we're placing and the discrete initiatives. And we have to continue to kind of raise the hurdle rate as to what we funded, what we choose to invest in. And so, you know, relative to the commentary and the shareholder letter. You know, should you need economics and some of our core businesses continue to get tougher rather that we've got to raise that hurdle rate and draw a bit of a harder line as to what we're choosing to invest in. And so, that's the approach that we're taking.

or other was up pretty sharp, I think 28% year over year, that's now about a fourth of the mix. So curious about what drove the strength there and how you're thinking about that other business within consumer for the rest of the year. Sorry, John , consumer X personal loans and what else? I'm sorry. X personal loans, credit cards and SMBs, just the ones, the larger businesses.

As interest rates continue to rise, there's more interest in shopping around yields on checking savings and CD rates. So that's the relative scale of that is not huge, but that continues to be an area from a macro standpoint that we continue to see opportunity. The other area is

in our credit services business, right? So we have, you know, both credit repair and debt relief where folks come to us and express interest in a personal loan or in another product, perhaps don't meet the criteria for those loans. We offer subsequent solutions to them in the form of credit repair or debt relief based on their needs. And that's been an area that has grown a little bit throughout the last year.

Okay, that's helpful. And then from a strategic standpoint, I guess also from a modeling standpoint, I saw you guys mention your discontinuing the reverse mortgage business. I guess first, why now? And then secondly, how much revenue did that contribute in 2022 and any kind of discussion on segment margin or VMM impact? Yeah, John , that business was one that we, you know, we stood up several years ago and the opportunity there has.

has been declining over the last several years. The regulatory environment for there is not particularly supportive. You know, and to give you some sense, that was a business that was doing sub-5 million in revenue for the last several years. So it's really not a needle mover. You know, when you think about strategically sort of where we are as a business, we're really trying to simplify the business in many respects and focus in on the core value drivers. And that's one that, you know, relative to my comment earlier about raising the hurdle rate, it didn't quite meet it.

on our fixed costs or impact on our fixed costs, right? So when we talk about,

our cost structure, these things are closely aligned, right? We're trying to make sure that we're in the right segments where we're getting maximum leverage off of our fixed costs. And if there is...

cost structure, these things are closely aligned, right? We're trying to make sure that we're in the right segments where we're getting maximum leverage off of our fixed costs. And if there is a

a hidden cost aspect associated with being in a business that's not delivering a big impact, we want to redeploy those fixed costs or cut them. And so it's obviously reverse in and of itself is not a big impact, but it's indicative of the scrutiny that we're putting into the whole business. Makes sense. Thanks guys. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from Rob Wildhack with Autonomous Research. Your line is now open.

Morning, guys. You called out some competitive factors on the credit card side, obviously a lot going on in that space, whether it's tree quality or competing products, different business models, and now you even have a competitor paying out consumers who don't get approved. Bigger picture, can you just share how you think about the competitive landscape and positioning there and really the rationality of it all right now? I'm curious to keep you repeat those.

you're mentioning is obviously credit karma. That's I believe what you're referring to when they talk about the guarantee.

where cards are assured. That's an extension of their lightbox pre-approval and they've just changed the verbiage around it to assure somebody the degree of guarantee that they would actually get the card. Now, why are we doing 3QAL? One,

for consumers we think it's a better outcome, right? We don't like a lending-tree consumer coming to our experience, clicking out and having effectively a 80 plus percent chance of being denied a card. That's not great for us. And it's fine for our partners because they only pay us on approvals, but it's not great for customer experience. So, Treesquall started from that perspective.

Now, ultimately though, for our partners to want to deal with Credit Karma, NerdWallet, ourselves and others.

They need to get volume, right? There's no point in working with us if they can't get volume from us. So we are, from a marketplace perspective, embarking on a strategy to increase the volume we can get them at a reasonable price. And so we just need to diversify the marketing channels to do that. Every qual is going to rely on our My Lending Tree base.

Right largely and then there are opportunities to use Treek Wall in our existing experiences that we're actually quite excited about so for instance a consumer could be coming in and looking for a Given product. Let's say they're looking for a personal loan But the size of the loan they're looking for it doesn't really make sense for a personal loan and we can show them a card That they are pre-approved for that we think would be a good experience for the consumer and it's another opportunity to drive volume

and we need to get better there. Now core to your question is the competition in the card space. Interestingly, we're coming into this where it's a very small part of our overall business. So any incrementality is improvement. That is a business that is in the margin perspective for us.

you know, it operates in the team. So if we can take market share and even just hold our current margin profile, which obviously we want to improve over time, we can see great gains in credit card that are meaningful for us, perhaps less meaningful for some of our competitors who started from cards.

So that's our strategy. Now, when we talk about the competition, we probably talk about that competition more than others because we feel it more than others, because we're so dependent on search. As we diversify our marketing mix for the card business.

it won't be quite as profound, right? But that's where we are today, and we've been very candid about that. We need to improve that. So there are a number of aspects to it. There's a tech aspect, that's the light speed migration. There's a marketing aspect that's developing the other channels, and then there's a new product aspect, and that is Trequal, that's the strategy. And the only thing I'd add to that, if you, first off, we relate to the credit card business, and the reason was because,

We didn't like the approval rate dynamics that JD just talked about. However, we did add our with acquisition and we're in it now and we're just continuing to make it better. So when I think of a competitive environment, we've got one competitor that's better at us and we've got a card FEO and another one that's better at us, better at not some approval rates because of light, because of the comments of light box. Our response of that is, tree-qual, the wind guard, the light speed tech work that JD talked about and FEO on lightning trees.

And the nice thing is with our competitors being public, we get to see the target of where we want to head and we're very focused on it. Thanks. That's really helpful. Just a quick one. I think we have some at least qualitative commentary on insurance and home as it relates to 23. Can you just close the loop and share where you're thinking on growth in consumer and margin or growth in consumer and the margin there for 2023? Thanks. Yeah, I mean our baseline expectation as we kind of outlined in the letter from a revenue standpoint.

Again, sort of mid single digits from a revenue graph standpoint, and then we assume pretty consistent market relative to what we saw last year. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from Melissa, which AP Morgan your line is now open. Good morning, thanks for taking my questions today.

A lot of them have already been asked, but I thought it would be worth touching on or following up on the consumer margin. Definitely saw that nice pop. And for Q, your shareholder letter also referenced some organic growth from my lending tree there. So as we think about margin into 23, should we be thinking sort of mid-40s or a sort of a normalized run rate, or are you looking at 4Q given the current mix?

across products is something that's a more sustainable run rate. Yeah, I'd say, Melissa, for mid to high 40s, and if you unpack the moving pieces within that, right, you've got the personal business is.

It's an incredibly high margin for us. The current environment with everything going on in the macros are great moving higher and the health of the lenders in that space. They're just the orientation of the lenders in that space such that they are protecting their current portfolios as opposed to interested in massive origination growth. The unity, economic and personal lives are.

They're harder, right? And so we have to be conscious of the impact of that on the margins for a while. Obviously, that's a big driver of the segment. That said, you know, there are other areas where we're seeing really good, you know, really good margins. All the work that we just talked about around the credit card business are clearly intended to improve the margins of that business, but the margins there are not great today. But we're doing a lot of work that we think improves them.

Small business is the other big driver within consumer. That's an incredibly high margin business for us. We think that is an increasing contributor to the segment as we progress throughout this year. To sum it all up, I think we did 44 percent margins in consumer. On the full year last year, we did 48 percent margins in the fourth quarter. Somewhere between those two is our going in expectation for 23. That's really helpful. Thanks, Trent. Then I guess as a follow-up on Trequal,

Are you able to share with us, just sort of on an aggregate partner basis, what percentage of partners are now participating in the TREEQEL platform and what portion do you have left to convert? Sure. Well, it's de minimis as a percentage of partners.

It's in the single digit area right now, but it's actually not really how we're looking at it. We're looking at it as partners who can offer us.

broader coverage, right, in terms of the cards that they represent, depending on whether that card is intended for, you know, super prime, prime, mid-prime, or sub-prime. And so we want to be able to match up with partners who have an array of cards. And so that's what we're excited about.

getting upgrade in onto the network as we mentioned in the letter Because they're bringing five cards to us Obviously over time we want to have all of our partners working on some form of pre-qual and What we were excited about in the third and fourth quarter of last year Is the momentum in terms of just pipeline of dialogue with partners? We're getting more visibility as to how partners want to work with us

You know right now there's a path for pre-qual that is working with a trusted third party that many of the card issuers work with today.

They work with them on direct mail. And so that is kind of the easiest path. And that was why we went down that path. Not all of our partners, however, want to work with it that way. Some of us want to do embedded integrations with us without a third party involved. And so that takes more time to...

to work on from a technology perspective on both sides with us and the partner, but it's obviously a good outcome when we get there. So I'd say that the dialogue has increased. We're happy about upgrade, and we're happy with the existing partners and the results that they're experiencing.

But as we look at our, let's put it this way, the financial impact of TREEQOL will manifest itself in credit card, potentially down the road in personal loans. It is not in our 23 guide in any material way. We look at this as a year of onboarding partners and we know that we will have a healthier credit card business on the back of it.

but our guide is not dependent on incremental revenue from free fall. Got it. Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from Mike Grundle with North Linn Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Hey, thanks guys. I wanted to dig into the strategy a little bit. I think the Tree branded win card

is the first time you've put your name on a product, and you mentioned more products to come, are you trying to put one of these tree-branded products in each vertical? Or how should we think about kind of the rollout and some of the new products you said will be coming over the course of the year?

Yeah, so I'll start in another JD will follow up as well. So think of my lending tree. I talked about this before as bringing the best customer experience to the consumer. And that's why we launched a branded card there as opposed to having our my lending tree members be clicking out to search for cards and not getting approved. We get to great product. We get best in class.

to put a card in their wallet that we think is fantastic and that you could get approved at a very high rate for it. And in My Lending Tree, you could expect us not necessarily to always do a single product offering, but I would say that whatever we do on My Lending Tree, we want it to be.

the best in class products so that consumers come back to us again and again without us having to be as dependent on paid marketing to continually drive people back into the marketplace. JD, anything to add? The only thing I would add, Mike, is we spent a lot of time last year doing consumer research on what specific financial jobs consumers would trust us with. And so, we've got, as Doug mentioned, it's kind of a multi-year approach.

address. So I don't think it's specifically going to be a product for every vertical area that we have. We will roll these out really relative to what we think is the most adjacent thing. We don't want it to become a feature factory. We want it to be things that genuinely add value for the consumer and drive engagement. And I was thinking about earlier, you know, you think about historically we talked about.

pushing our consumers and my lending free to connect their accounts. And, you know, you could come in and use Plaid to connect your accounts. And there was obviously potential benefit for us in terms of the information that we were gathering, but there wasn't really anything on the other side for the consumer, right? And if you think about what we're doing with the WinCard, we're saying, here are these financial behaviors where we know you will be better off on the other side. And if you come and log in and show engagement with us, you'll get your cash back, and we know that we're going to improve your credit score and your access to other financial products over time.

advocate for the consumer. That's where we want to be. We talk often internally about being a digital ally for the consumer, and the win card is the start of that. Got it, got it. Thanks.

I'm trying to understand, is it kind of a pivot or the beginning of a big new direction for you guys? You know, legacy was sort of when banks compete, you win. And now it's more of a...

hey, you might have a financial need and we got a product to meet that. I'm just trying to understand that evolution. Yeah. So again, think of the marketplace and My Lending Tree as two, as connected but also separate. So when you come to Lending Tree, when banks could beat you in, you expect to see choice in comparison shopping. When you upgrade to My Lending Tree.

you expect to get instantly approved because we have all of your credit data. We've been giving you a free credit score probably for multiple months. And a lender integrated with us can do really interesting stuff on the underwriting side, that you can't do in a click out model until Trequal is fully there.

And so My Lending Tree has just given you the best answer, and we've got a lot of really exciting things coming. And we think the win card is broad enough to cover really most of the credit spectrum, the approval rate aspect, improve the unit economics, and the features of it are targeted to exactly what My Lending Tree is, which is a financial journey.

an ally to help you improve your financial standing and get you the best offers at the lowest price. And Mike, just from a marketplace strategy perspective, one of the things we talk about internally is degree of authentication, right? So if you look at our personal loan vertical, our partners

and we're delivering a highly authenticated consumer. That is true in mortgage as well. That is only true to an extent in insurance, that is not true in credit card, that is not true in deposits. Those are click-out businesses where we're not really delivering a lot of information on the consumer.

we are authenticated in small business. We spend a lot of time talking about how much value are we delivering to our partners in terms of the type of information on that consumer where they can make informed lending decisions.

So that's the strategy within Marketplace, or Marketplace businesses, I should say. If you think about the strategy that Doug is articulating for My Lending Tree, it's very consumer-centric, right? And historically, we have been guilty of really thinking about My Lending Tree as more of a marketing channel. So part of your question, is this a pivot?

I would say that this is a meaningful change in terms of how we think about my lending tree and what you're seeing is the beginning of the work that's been going on for the last year in terms of where we want to play on the my lending tree side, how we want to help consumers.

And while Marketplace may have a slightly different strategy that is very oriented towards partners and what they want to see, you can understand how the two interact, right? At the end of the day, Trequal is all about authentication in the Marketplace. The win card, but it's also on the consumer side about...

giving you an assured outcome as opposed to a potential denial. The win card is about that as well. Right, and so I actually think the two strategies work hand in hand quite well and and that's actually the best approach that we could take. Got it. Hey, that explanation was really helpful. Thanks guys.

an assured outcome as opposed to a potential denial. The win card is about that as well, right? And so I actually think the two strategies work hand in hand quite well and that's actually the best approach that we could take. Got it. Hey, that explanation was really helpful. Thanks guys. Thank you.

Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from Jamie freedom with Susquehanna International Group. Your line is now open. Hi, good results in a difficult environment. I just wanted to. Ask if you could possibly trend double click on the. Assumptions on page 8 in the shareholder letter, especially or specifically, if you could with regard to the quarterly cadence, I realize we have the 1st quarter. We've got the year.

But some of these segments have what look like increasingly easy comps. So, since we have to quarterize our models for this year, any call outs you could make on the segments by quarter. Thank you. Yeah, Jamie, totally fair question. Obviously the.

You know, the Q1 guide relative to the full year guide implies some improvement throughout the year. A couple things going on there. I guess in consumer, many of those businesses have a seasonal curve to them where things generally.

Things generally improve from Q1 to Q2 to Q3 and then slow down a little bit in the fourth quarter. We see that in credit card generally. We see that in personal loans for sure. And so that's driving some of the sequential improvement that's implied as we progress throughout the year. The other big one is obviously within home and within mortgage in particular, given our increased reliance on purchase within that, within that business, that's a business that clearly we expect to be better in the.

spring and summer home buying season than in the first couple months of the year. Okay, I show no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the conference back to Doug for closing remarks. I will make this brief.

This company right now is a characterized 2023. It's really the year of discipline and execution. I want to offer everybody to know that we're confident in our position. We've been through this twice before as financial markets have corrected. This is a longer one. And the diversification that we have put in place over the last few years has certainly helped bull work the company in what's a very, very tough environment. And what I can tell you is this entire company doesn't like to lose.

Marketing is working well. We've got teams working on the key levers of the business with dedicated projects against them as we talked about. And we look forward to working with you throughout the year and thank you for your support so far. And we're gonna go get back to work and do the best we can. Thank you all very, very much. This concludes today's conference call.

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