Q4 2022 B&G Foods Inc Earnings Call

February 28, 2023

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Speaker 2: Good afternoon.

Speaker 3: Welcome to the B&G Foods fourth quarter 2022 earnings call.

Speaker 3: Today's call, which is being recorded, is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by B&G Foods Management and the question and answer session.

Speaker 3: I would now like to turn the call over to Sarah Jirellam, Senior Director of Corporate Strategy and Business Development for B&G Foods. Please go ahead, ma'am.

Speaker 4: Good afternoon and thank you for joining us.

Speaker 4: With me today are Casey Keller, our Chief Executive Officer, and Bruce Wauka, our Chief Financial Officer.

Speaker 4: You can access detailed financial information on the quarter and full year in the earnings release we issued today Which is available at the investor relations section of BG foods.com

Speaker 4: for a more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact our company's future operating results and financial conditions.

Speaker 4: B&G FOODS undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether it is the result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

Speaker 4: We will also be making references on today's call to the non-GAAP financial measures, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income, adjusted diluted earnings per share, and base business net sales. Reconciliations of these financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided in today's earnings release.

Speaker 4: Casey will begin the call with opening remarks and discuss various factors that affected our results, selected business highlights, and his thoughts concerning the outlook for fiscal 2023 and beyond.

Speaker 4: Bruce will then discuss our financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal 2022 and our guidance for fiscal 2023. I would now like to turn the call over to Casey.

Speaker 5: Good afternoon. Thank you, Sarah, and thank you all for joining us today for our fourth quarter and fiscal 2022 quarter earnings call. Fourth quarter performance demonstrated strong recovery with cumulative pricing actions covering inflationary costs as we expected.

Speaker 5: Net sales increased plus 9% versus last year, with adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of net sales at 15% compared to 14.9% last year.

Speaker 5: Excluding items affecting comparability, gross profit as a percentage of net sales improved to 20.6% in Q4 2022, increasing versus 19.7% in Q4 2021. This is the first quarter in 2022 where margins were at least flat for improving year over year.

Speaker 5: corn, but costs still remain at historically high levels. In addition, freight transportation and warehousing costs moderated from last summer highs, although still above last year.

Speaker 5: pricing. In total pricing realization including product mix contributed $99.2 million in Q4 compared to $75.5 million in Q3. Net pricing actions fully recovered input cost inflation in the quarter following final price increases for 2022 implemented in August and October .

Speaker 5: In total, pricing realization, including product mix, contributed $99.2 million in Q4, compared to $75.5 million in Q3. Net pricing actions fully recovered input cost inflation in the quarter, following final price increases for 2022 implemented in August and October . In total, pricing realization, including product mix, contributed $99.2 million in Q4, compared

Speaker 5: Q4 sales volumes were relatively resilient against the significant price increases to offset inflation, partly reflecting the improvement in year-over-year customer service levels. In total, sales volume declines were approximately $45 million in Q4.

Speaker 5: In particular, spices and seasonings net sales grew plus 17.4% in Q4, driven by improved production and service performance. More than half of the Q4 volume declines were on Green Giant, driven by the exit of a low profit canned business in the dollar channel and higher elasticity following fall seasonal pack price increases.

Speaker 5: Supply and service. Customer service and fill rates improved during the quarter, reaching over 95% in December . Last year, December service levels were less than 90%, impacted by disruptions from the Omicron COVID variant in the supply and distribution network.

Speaker 5: At this stage, some supply issues remain behind materials availability and COPAC availability, but those are becoming more isolated situations.

Speaker 5: In totality, fiscal year 2022 was challenging, with rapidly rising inflationary inputs across key commodities, particularly following the Ukraine war, and the constant pressure of implementing pricing actions that lagged cost increases to adhere to customer lead time requirements.

Speaker 5: But we are encouraged by Q4 results and performance, reflecting the catch-up of pricing against costs across the portfolio.

Speaker 5: a moderating inflationary environment, and the recovery of our higher margin spices and seasonings business.

Speaker 5: In fiscal year 23, we expect inflation to continue but at lower rates, currently estimated at plus 5 to 6 percent, with the biggest new pressures on tomatoes, glass, etc. So far, we have not seen significant declines on key commodities, for example, soybean oil, corn wheat, etc.

Speaker 5: from average cost levels in fiscal year 22. Again, we have raised prices selectively to recover higher input costs, but only against key commodity categories versus the broader actions required in fiscal year 22.

Speaker 5: We have also modified our pricing approach with customers on Chrisco, some more accurately adjust to market costs on a quarterly basis.

Speaker 5: Finally, price elasticities are estimated to increase somewhat as the economy tightens and some consumers trade down on the margin to cheaper alternatives.

Speaker 5: As a result, we expect fiscal year 23 to demonstrate continued margin recovery as previously implemented pricing actions offset year-over-year inflation, particularly in the first half. Net sales, excluding investors, are expected to increase at plus 1 to 2 percent, driven by pricing benefits offset by volume elasticities.

Speaker 5: We expect that sales growth will also be impacted by moderate price declines on Crisco to reflect projected lower soybean oil costs in the second half of the year, while maintaining gross margin dollars.

Speaker 5: Bruce will discuss Fiscal Year 23 guidance in more detail.

Speaker 5: Further, we are continuing to make progress on reshaping the B&G Foods portfolio. The sale of the Back to Nature brand to Borula was completed in early January . It is a proactive step to exit the small, fragmented, lower margin snacks portfolio that is outside of the future of B&G Foods' core.

Speaker 5: The proceeds from the back-of-nature divestiture were used to make a partial prepayment of our variable rate term loan.

Speaker 5: We are actively reviewing other investor possibilities to sharpen the portfolio focus and reduce leverage in debt. Finally, the transition to four business units, spices and flavor solutions, meals, frozen and vegetables, and specialty, remains on track and they are largely up and running. As discussed, these units clarify the portfolio focus and future platforms for acquisition.

Speaker 5: to Bruce for more detail on the quarterly performance and outlook for the year.

Speaker 5: Thank you, Casey. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our fourth quarter in fiscal 2022 earnings call.

Speaker 5: As you can see, we had a fairly strong finish to the fourth quarter.

Speaker 5: can see we had a fairly strong finish to the fourth quarter to an otherwise challenging year.

Speaker 5: The primary challenges that we faced at the onset of the year, inflation, inflation, and inflation, continue to plague us throughout the remainder of the year. We expected these inflationary pressures from the beginning.

Speaker 5: tool to help combat inflation, but the structural delays involved in implementing price increases resulting from customer advance notice requirements limited our ability to fully offset these costs for much of the year.

Speaker 5: The inflation was fierce and it flowed into our numbers from the beginning of the year. Our pricing model was back half weighted though and so as we discussed in our previous earnings calls, our financial performance in the first and second quarters was extremely challenged.

Speaker 5: The third quarter was also difficult, but we began to see green shoots as the pace of inflation began to moderate and our pricing began to catch up with costs.

Speaker 5: This dynamic set up a nice fourth quarter for us, which benefited from our pricing actions, a moderation in the pace of inflation, and a relatively benign comparison when looking at the fourth quarter of 2021, which was negatively impacted by supply chain disruption in the closing month of the year from the Omicron variant of COVID. In fiscal 2022, we generated $2.163 billion.

Speaker 5: Our fourth quarter 2022 compares favorably to the prior year period when we generated $571.8 million in net sales, $85.1 million in adjusted EBITDA, and $0.39 in adjusted diluted earnings per share.

Speaker 5: I will now highlight the performance of some of our larger brands. Net sales of Crisco, the largest beneficiary of full year pricing in the overall B&G Foods portfolio increased $16.8 million or 15.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2021.

Speaker 5: Net sales of Crisco increased by $78.5 million, or 26.8%, for fiscal 2022 as compared to 2021.

Speaker 5: CRISCO was expected to deliver $270 million in net sales annually when we acquired it in late 2020, generated more than $370 million in net sales this year. While costs are up significantly and margins are down, we were able to manage CRISCO to deliver profit dollars that were generally in line with our acquisition model.

Speaker 5: Clabber Girl had another great year under B&G Foods ownership. Net sales increased $7 million, or 28.8%, in the fourth quarter of 2022, as compared to the fourth quarter of last year.

Speaker 5: And for fiscal 2022, Clabber's net sales increased by $17.5 million, or 22%, compared to 2021.

Speaker 5: Net sales of premium wheat increased by $5.1 million or 26.1% for the quarter and $14.1 million or 21% for the fiscal year.

Speaker 5: Net sales of Ortega increased by $3.5 million, or 10.4%, for the quarter and increased by $3.1 million, or 2%, for the fiscal year. Our investments in supply chain appear to be paying off for Ortega, which had a strong second half of the year finish following a challenging first half, which was plagued by negative sales performance when compared to fiscal 2021.

Speaker 5: Maple Grove farms increased by $1.3 million, or 6.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the prior year period. Maple Grove finished the year up $3.2 million, or 4%, compared to the prior year.

Speaker 5: Our spices and seasonings business, which had been plagued with supply chain challenges throughout much of the year and had the lap peak 2021 performance also had a strong finish.

Speaker 5: Net sales of spices and ceasings were up 13.4 million dollars or 17.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Despite the slow start, spices and ceasings finished the year down. Just $12 million or 3.2% compared to the prior year.

Speaker 5: Fourth quarter performance represents a huge turnaround from the prior nine months of the year which had decreased by $25.4 million or 8.6%.

Speaker 5: Net sales of green giant, including the Lassaur, decreased by $11.3 million or $6.9% for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2021.

Speaker 5: Net sales of Green Giant were somewhat challenged in the back half of fiscal 2022, declining in both the third and fourth quarters, although performance in the fourth quarter showed relative improvement to our third quarter shortfall.

Speaker 5: On a full year basis, net sales of Green Giant were down $19.5 million, or 3.6%, when compared to the prior year.

Speaker 5: Base business net sales of all other brands in the aggregate increased by $15.4 million or 12.1% for the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 and increased by $22.1 million or 4.7% for fiscal 2022 compared to fiscal 2021.

Speaker 5: Gross profit was $126.1 million for the fourth quarter of 2022, or 20.2% of net sales.

Speaker 5: Excluding the negative impact of $2.5 million of acquisition divestiture-related expenses and non-recurring expenses included in costs of goods sold during the fourth quarter of 2022, the company's gross profit would have been $128.6 million or 20.6% of net sales. Gross profit was $101.9 million.

Speaker 5: for the fourth quarter of 2021, or 17.8% of net sales. Excluding the negative impact of $10.8 million of acquisition divestiture related expenses and non-recurring expenses included in cost of goods sold during the fourth quarter of 2021, the company's gross profit would have been $112.7 million.

Speaker 5: or 19.7% of net sales. Gross profit as a percentage of net sales, excluding the impact of acquisition, divestiture, and non-recurring expenses, was up approximately 100 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to last year's fourth quarter.

Speaker 5: The improved margins represent a significant turnaround from the first three quarters of the year, which saw gross profit at the percentage of net sales, excluding the impact of acquisition divestiture related, and non-recurring expenses down 530 basis points compared to the prior year periods.

Speaker 5: Selling general and administrative expenses decreased by $0.4 million or 0.9% to $51.9 million for the fourth quarter of 2022 from $52.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2021. The decrease was composed of reductions in acquisition divestiture related and non-recurring expenses.

Speaker 5: percentage of net sales selling general and administrative expenses improved by 0.8 percentage points to 8.3% for the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to 9.1% for the fourth quarter of 2021.

Speaker 5: We generated $93.6 million in adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to $85.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Speaker 5: The increase in adjusted EBITDA was primarily attributable to our pricing initiatives, which finally caught up to industry-wide input costs and logistics inflation. Additionally, we had a relatively strong finish to the year in 2022 that compared favorably to the fourth quarter of 2001, which was negatively impacted by the Omicron COVID variant. Northwest

Speaker 5: as a percentage of net sales. The improved margins represent a significant turnaround from the first three quarters of the year, which had a decrease in adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of net sales of nearly 490 basis points compared to the prior year periods.

Speaker 5: Interest expense was $36.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $26.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. The primary driver for the increase in interest expense was an increase in our outstanding variable rate debt, which is currently tied to LIBOR, as well as an increase in LIBOR.

Speaker 5: Depreciation and amortization was $19.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $21.6 million in the fourth quarter of last year.

Speaker 5: We generated 40 cents in adjusted diluted earnings per share in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to 39 cents in the prior year.

Speaker 5: While we certainly had our share of challenges in 2022, we are very happy with our finish to the year. As a reminder, our first and second quarters of 2022 were the most challenging. The third quarter began to show improvement. Our fourth quarter was the culmination of a lot of hard work on the part of our organization over the course of the year.

Speaker 5: as we adapted and responded to the cost pressure and supply chain challenges that we faced. As we look forward, we are cautiously optimistic about our outlook for 2023 and beyond. We expect to have the most favorability as compared to 2022 in the first half of the year as we lap the greatest cross-tracks from 2022.

Speaker 5: We believe that our third quarter will show a modest improvement in 2023 versus 2022, and that the fourth quarter of 2023 is expected to look similar in many regards to the fourth quarter of 2022.

Speaker 5: With that said, we have lived in an uncertain world for the last three years, and we don't fully know what the next set of challenges will be.

Speaker 5: But based on what we know today, we expect 2,023 net sales of $2.13 to $2.17 billion, adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $310 to $330 million, and adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in a range of $95 to $1.15. Our guidance.

Speaker 5: assumes pricing benefit throughout the year and modest volume declines coupled with elevated cost environment and more modest levels inflation throughout the portfolio. While the economy is still turbulent, we believe that we have seen the worst of the escalation in inflationary pressures.

Speaker 5: and that unlike last year pricing is finally being given the opportunity to catch up to costs. Additionally, we expect

Speaker 5: For full year 2023, interest expense of $145 to $150 million, including cash interest of $140 to $145 million. Depreciation expense of $47.5 million to $52.5 million. Depreciation expense of $20 million to $22 million.

Speaker 5: an effective tax rate of 26.5 to 27.5 percent, and CAPEX of $35 to $40 million. In addition to the risk factors discussed in our annual report, key factors that could lend to either upside or downside risk to our guidance include the level of elasticity that we may face given the price increases that we have already executed.

Speaker 5: as well as any additional elasticity as a result of our trade spend optimization efforts. And while we are hoping for at least a pause in the levels of inflationary pressures that we are seeing in certain input costs, we still live in a very uncertain world and must still expect the unexpected. We are also closely watching the promotional activity levels in our key categories and private label trends. We believe that the combination of a better operating performance is 2023.

Speaker 5: coupled with more favorable working capital trends and a reduction in our dividend announced last November , will help drive our efforts to reduce leverage and improve our balance sheet. Now I would like to turn the call back over to Casey for further remarks. Thank you, Bruce. In closing, we are making progress to turn around and strengthen B&G Foods portfolio and performance.

Speaker 5: Q4 results demonstrated recovery with pricing covering inflationary costs and a positive reduction in leverage. We also completed a first step in reshaping the brand portfolio with a back-to-nature divestiture and have implemented the focused business unit structure to manage the portfolio with greater clarity and accountability. This concludes our remarks and now we would like to begin the Q&A portion of our call. Operator? We'll begin in about a minute or so. We would like to close the call. We would like to begin in about a minute and we will close out the call.

Speaker 5: results demonstrated recovery with pricing covering inflationary costs and a positive reduction in leverage. We also completed a first step in reshaping the brand portfolio with a back-to-nature divestiture and have implemented the focused business unit structure to manage the portfolio with greater clarity and accountability. This concludes our remarks and now we would like to begin the Q&A portion of our call. Operator? Thank you, Phil.

Speaker 3: We will now be conducting the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star and then 1. The confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star and then 2 if you would like to remove yourself from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key.

Speaker 5: The first question we have is from Andrew Lazar from Barclays. Please go ahead. Great. Good afternoon. Good afternoon, Andrew. I guess to start off, I think you mentioned 1 to 2 percent net sales growth guidance for the year. Does that incorporate the $50 million or so in lost sales from the sale of Back to Nature?

Speaker 5: Yeah, but that would be an organic number with back to nature out of both the fiscal year 22 base and the fiscal year 23 numbers. Okay, so one to two is organic then. Okay, so in light of that, I guess I'm trying to get a better sense or any additional color you can give us on how that breaks down, best guess, in terms of the net benefit from pricing that you'll still have this year versus the type of volume offset.

Speaker 5: You obviously had 17% pricing benefit in 4Q. You still, as you said, in the first half have somewhat easier comps on pricing before you start to lap more significant price. I'm trying to get a sense also of how you expect volume to play out, at least at this stage. I know it's dynamic. Yeah. I mean, I think we expect to get pricing benefit in that 1% to 2%, but part of that pricing benefit will get offset when we...

Speaker 5: you know, because we have a plan on Crisco that we will lower prices as soybean oil costs go down. So remember, we will go to retailers and adjust prices as soybean oil commodity costs move, and we expect them to move downward, particularly in the back half of the year, year over year. So there is a little bit of offset to our pricing benefit with Crisco, but, you know, our pricing plan will preserve gross margin dollars, but will have a net sales effect. You know, a typical commodity business kind of profile. The other impact is that, you know, we

Speaker 5: You know, the last year in the first quarter, you know, we had fairly heavy demand behind that kind of thing.

Speaker 5: The Omicron variant boosting demand people staying home and other things so that was that's a little bit of a volume offset in the first quarter You know we expect to get you know the pricing benefit flowing through in the first quarter But you know demand maybe a little bit down and you I think you've seen that in most of the other you know peer company reports So look I mean we will probably have modest volume decline Offset by pricing benefit that yield the one to two percent offset by you know Crisco pricing going down as soybean oil costs go down, which is what we expect

Speaker 5: Okay, and then Gross margins obviously a couple years ago prior to the pandemic and such in 19 and even 20 were sort of closer to that 24 to 25 percent level. Fourth quarter obviously you started to finally see the recovery year over year in Gross margin. I know there's a long way to go, but as you think through the outlook for 23, what sort of Gross margin recovery do you think we can get that's built into at least your Irribe forecast? Yeah, go ahead. Yeah, I was going to say directionally it's going to be comparable to the movement that you're going to see in EBITDA margins. We don't typically give the Gross margin forecast for the year. We're going to be moving back toward that direction, but we're not going to get all the way there in 2023.

Speaker 5: some of this is structural if you think about, you know, Crisco for example, you know, that business is generally speaking generating the profit dollars of the business that we bought but sales are a hundred million dollars higher.

Speaker 5: Right, and so when you think about that, what that just does from an algebra standpoint to your margins, it's going to compress them, just structural compression even though you're generating the same amount of profit margin dollars. We have that same impact across our portfolio, but in a smaller way in some of the brands and categories, we had to take price but maybe not as much price to protect dollars.

Speaker 5: I think the easiest way to say that, Andrew, is that we expect to recover most of the gross profit dollars that we had in 2021 and 23 with our pricing actions, but obviously, as Bruce said, margins won't be the same because you've got a higher sales base that you're comparing the gross profit dollars to.

Speaker 5: Yep, that's helpful. And then last thing, Casey, I think as you started to go through this more significant sort of portfolio review, we know it's resulted in a couple of smaller sort of divestitures so far, but there is one larger asset, Green Giant and Frozen, that you've kind of said you need to start to get a little more clarity on whether that's a business that you're going to sort of be all in on or all out on.

Speaker 5: And if you're going to be all in on it, it probably would require gaining more scale. But either way, you had to improve the profitability first before we could kind of make that call. So I guess I'm trying to get a sense of where we are in that sort of journey of discovery. If you've got new thoughts, one way or the other on higher leaning, and where that temperature state and that business sort of fits into the portfolio going forward. Thanks so much.

Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, the portfolio reshaping, I think, is an exercise where we're trying to obviously improve the margin profile of our core business and also the growth prospects of the core business and also platforms where we think we can acquire and build value. So the jury, I mean, the jury to me is not out on Green Giant. We're still working to improve the business. We're still evaluating, longer term, do we want to scale up in Frozen? But it's an active discussion that we're having internally. There are other things in our portfolio reshaping.

Speaker 6: Thank you. I had just two quick questions. Can you give us the variable rate paydown that occurred after the back of nature sale? Or the dollar rose?

Speaker 6: Yeah, we've paid down $60 million to the term loan so far this year. Great, thank you, Bruce. And the second question is, as you look across the portfolio and you think about the volume versus pricing versus the last-of-the-city kind of discussion.

Speaker 6: Which segments or brands, you know, you're watching most closely, do you think that are most susceptible to private label where you may not have that pricing or may have to adjust pricing over time? I think it's a combination. I mean, clearly when you think about something like Green Giant on the can side, that's an area where we're always watching market share, seeing what the branded competitors are doing and with the private label.

Speaker 6: competitors are doing that that's less of a value add category. So there's some there's definitely some sensitivity there and that's an area where we took price. So that's one area for one reason. Crisco is obviously another one. It's the brand in vegetable oil and it's the only brand in shortening, but we still have to watch what's going on because the amount of prices from the increased standpoint was was so great. So there's two examples on different sides of the coin. One positioning, you know, it's commodity category. The other one it is the brand, but there was a lot of pricing and you have that across the portfolio to a lesser degree with everything. Great. Thank you very much. I appreciate it. The next question we have is from David Palmer from Evercore.

Speaker 6: February as we've kind of come through that Omicron, you know, kind of stay-at-home office closure environment last year in January , early February . So I think, like I said, I think we'll have a little bit of a tougher comp in the early part of first quarter, but we expect it will get better when pricing will flow through more on a positive side.

Speaker 6: in the back half of the quarter. Well, I mean, in the fourth quarter, your shipments were ahead of consumption, right? Is that a dynamic you would expect in the first quarter as well? No, the reason, I'm sorry, I thought you were asked about the first quarter. In the fourth quarter, we remember last year, we had trouble shipping towards the end of the fourth quarter because of Omicron call-outs.

Speaker 6: difference in consumption and shipments in Q4, but consumption was still reasonably strong in Q4 overall.

Speaker 6: And you don't have any of that Omicron disruption from last year? No, what we saw was that a surge in demand in January and early February from the Omicron disruption. So it moved from kind of a supply problem to an elevated demand with stay-at-home consumption of food. It moved to a demand issue. So we had elevated demand last year.

Speaker 6: going to be the case. I think we'll be shipping closer to consumption profiles this year because you don't have the disruption going on. The, just wanted to follow up on price elasticity for 23. Do you expect price elasticity levels to remain similar to the recent levels that we?

Speaker 6: that you are witnessing in the measure channel data. And I'll just wrap in another question about price elasticity in there. What are some of the things that we're seeing going on when we look at Green Giant and SPICES? It looks like the price elasticity is much higher in those parts of the business. Maybe is there something temporary that's causing that? Any thoughts about your price elasticity levels moving forward? Thanks.

Speaker 6: You know, it obviously varies by category. Spice and Seething, I think, is less of an impact of price elasticity. It's normally where we still have a hangover from the first half of 21 where we had service issues, so we are kind of rebuilding some of the distribution that we couldn't supply in that period. So, I don't really think that's an elasticity issue.

Speaker 6: I do believe that we are forecasting slightly higher lastities on what I'd call the commodity businesses, number one, Chris Goe and Green Giant, particularly on the can side, but also on some of the frozen vegetable side. We expect velocities will be below one, but a little bit higher than what we've seen in the past, as consumers become more sensitive to the higher prices, and even if the percentage spread to private label is the same.

Speaker 6: the absolute dollar spread is growing a little bit. So, we are expecting a little bit higher elasticities, but still expect to see some positive pricing benefit in 2023, if that helps. Yeah, but was there anything particular happening with with

Speaker 6: Green Giant or SPICES where you were taking outsize measures on pricing that was out of step with the with the category that was causing what we're seeing here? I mean, we don't think so in SPICES and again SPICE had a great fourth quarter, had a slow start to the year in 2022 which was for us at least was a lot more about

Speaker 6: supply chain. I know that there is a large public company that sometimes has different explanations for their trends, but they have a little bit different business than us. Certainly, 2021 was a phenomenal year for Splices. It was challenging to lap that in 2022. Those challenges probably were exaggerated for us in the first half, even the first three quarters of the year, but a pretty strong finish there. And a hundred percent, Green Giant Canned is a very different business than Splices. It's a much more commoditized category. Remember, our spices business is not really in A to Z. It's more in blends and other things. So it doesn't...

Speaker 6: I don't believe that it was last issue that I said it was we had some supply problems in the first and second quarters of last year that we had difficulty supplying and we had to kind of rebuild distribution in which you saw kind of happening in the fourth quarter. So I think it's more around our supply and service, you know, portfolio, I mean, excuse me, performance, and recovering all of that lost distribution and getting back in business, which is what you're seeing happening now in Q4 and we project into 23.

Speaker 5: Thank you. Next question we have. It's from Michael Lovery from Python Sound Love. Please go ahead. Thank you. Good afternoon. With the elevated snap benefits rolling off, I guess technically tomorrow, can you give a sense of how you've factored that into your thinking on guidance and maybe even specifically are there any cases where consumers trading down?

Speaker 6: in kind of lower middle income, consumer base next year, which is why we've factored up some of our elasticities on our more commodity driven businesses.

Speaker 6: where you know we have higher private label penetration. So I think we factored in some element of that that you're talking about, but it's more around overall price sensitivity and a little bit higher elasticity from what we saw in 22. Okay, that's helpful.

Speaker 5: Just when you touched on close to the end of the prepared remarks, the potential for some trade optimization, can you unpack a little bit how that might look and how difficult that may or may not be to achieve and what potentially share implications could be?

Speaker 6: I think this is an ongoing efficiency and productivity effort that we've been working on for the past year, which is just to take a look at our trade performance and ensure that we're getting appropriate returns for it and moving towards our better promotion events. We're not reducing trade spending in 2023.

Speaker 6: as kind of a percentage basis, but we're trying to optimize the performance of it to make sure that we're producing stronger returns and stronger lifts on the events that we do run with customers. Historically, we haven't, in my opinion, we have not done enough post-promotion analysis to really understand that to adjust our plans and to drive efficiency. So I don't think you're going to see a reduction in our trade spend. You're going to see an optimization that hopefully will drive better performance and lift off the spending that we do have. Could there be upside to trade spending, just given that most of the industry is still below pre-COVID level?

Speaker 6: I mean, we've brought trade spending back to get closer to the pre-COVID levels. I think the upside to me is if we can get stronger event performance with the spend that we're doing by readjusting the way we're spending our money and what types of events and vehicles we're using. So that to me is the upside of trying to get a more efficient trade spend program and optimizing the spending performance.

Speaker 6: We've brought trade spending back to get closer to the pre-COVID levels. I think the upside to me is if we can get stronger event performance with the spending that we're doing by readjusting the way we're spending our money and what types of events and vehicles we're using. So that to me is the upside of trying to get a more efficient trade spend program and optimizing the spending performance. Okay that's helpful thank you.

Speaker 5: Thank you. The next question we have is from Robin Moskow from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Hey, Rob. Happy birthday. Oh, that's very kind of you and heartwarming. Appreciate it, Bruce. What better way to spend it, right? Absolutely. And now my question. What gives you visibility on pricing on Crisco going lower in the back half? Is it because it's lower now and then you know you're going to be able to flow that through in the back half? Or is it just kind of you just think vegetable oil prices are really high and they have to go lower? I think we had a follow up.

Speaker 6: I think it's really, we don't know, Rob, we don't know for certain, but the reason why we're saying that is, we saw prices, if you just think about the market, we had prices above 80 cents a pound on soybean oil last year, moderating down to probably 70 cents a pound as we were going into fourth quarter. Now we're down in kind of the low to mid 60s.

Speaker 6: and price per pound, and just our intelligence says we expect it to kind of stay there or maybe go a little bit lower, which means that as we get into the back half where we were experiencing those big pricing moves last year, we think it will be probably below where, you know, the, before, below where the market was last year in, you know, in the third and fourth quarters in particular. Okay. And then I wanted to know about your CapEx guide.

Speaker 5: it's really pretty low. It's really no different than it was in 2019. And at the CAGNY conference, we heard a lot about companies investing in CapEx, not just for capacity, but also to automate and digitize their supply chains, put in more up-to-date equipment to gain efficiencies, and I think just keep up with a more volatile demand environment. Are you concerned that

Speaker 6: that your supply chain may not be keeping up with your peers that are making these investments. So I think the couple pieces that you have to remember is call it roughly 50% or so of our business is made through co-packers or contract manufacturers. And so there is a little bit less probably demand from a percentage of sales, if you want to think about it that way, from our factories.

Speaker 6: And then when you think about our CapEx spending over time, FairPoint, it's similar in dollar terms to where we were probably 2018, 2019. We were in the process back then of implementing the GDE ERP systems, and so there was a couple years of elevated spend that was probably plus $10 million annually to get that done. And so that going away allowed us to kind of continue to spend a comparable dollar amount, but probably more of those projects in line with what you're thinking about.

Speaker 6: Even kind of 2021, parts of 2022, we still have pretty large spend on the projects that we did around Ortega, both from Otaku, Shell and Otaku Sauce, where we increase some capacity there. And so there are examples of what you're talking about. I don't disagree with your comment other than there's some offsets to it, which regards to...

Speaker 6: you know, this year potentially not having a big spend project like JDE or a new taco shell line? I would say that, you know, our, because our capital is shifting from, you know, the ERP implementation to what we're doing with capacity additions. This coming year, we will be more focused on kind of BI software enhancements, also planning software enhancements, planning systems. I mean, we see a big opportunity to improve the effectiveness of our supply operations, our planning operations, and, you know, pulling down inventory levels and other levels and other things. So.

Speaker 5: That's becoming a larger focus of where we're shifting our time and attention from a capital and upgrade standpoint. Okay. Very good. Thank you. Thanks. The next question we have is from Rob Dickerson from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Great. Thanks so much. Just a clarification question on Q1. Bruce, I think I heard you say that Q1 would probably look like Q4. Was that comment made kind of with respect to actual absolute EBIT dollars, EBIT.dollars?

Speaker 6: Sorry, I think you may be misheard or I must have mis-spoken. So I think our expectation this year is Q1 and Q2 were pretty bad last year. Q2 is actually worse than Q1. So when we think about lapping and getting some EBITDA recovery, first quarter and second quarter of 2023, we'll have some favorability built in just from lapping really bad performance from 2022. 2023 in the third quarter should be probably a little bit better than 22.

Speaker 6: but the degree probably won't be the same as the expectations around Q1 and Q2. And then Q4 in 23 probably look more similar to Q4 in 22, meaning kind of we had a pretty good fourth quarter, was relatively normal from a margin standpoint. I wouldn't expect material upside in fourth quarter of 2023, you know, when we go to LAPID, but you should have some pretty good margin upside in the first quarter and particularly in the second quarter of this year. Okay, got it. Perfect. And then I guess just to come back to this trade optimization.

Speaker 5: strategy, kind of vis-a-vis the share trends that we're seeing. I realize that there's been some supply constraints in the system. I also realize what you said earlier, right? It's not that you're reducing that trade, but you're optimizing it. I'm just curious, as we think forward through 23, I'm assuming obviously the point of optimizing a trade program is kind of like regain share, at least in some of those categories. Maybe you just provide any additional color as to kind of how you're optimizing the trade and maybe if there are areas where you think might be a bit more supported relative to history. That's it. Thanks.

Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it's as simple as, you know, we want to make sure that we are promoting and that we're promoting at competitive levels in key windows. We want to make sure that we're getting the right lift from that spending. So on, you know, some of our businesses like, you know, Crisco and Green Giant or Tega, we will be competitive in the key, you know, promotion windows, merchandising windows. We will adjust to kind of our performance.

Speaker 6: based on what we're learning about, you know, where we're most effective. As I said before, I don't really expect that we're gonna reduce promotion spending. We just wanna make it more effective and we wanna drive efficiency and lift behind the existing spend that we're doing and we wanna make sure that we're promoting in the right places.

Speaker 6: And, you know, coming off this inflationary environment, we've got to make sure that we're at the right price points, competitive price points, relative to competition and private label, which is, you know, what we're doing, and we think we're well planned to be able to do that in our key merchandising programs. All right. Great. Thank you. ammunition artillery

Speaker 6: Thank you. The next question we have is from Kairou Martinson from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Good afternoon. When you look at the pricing, are you getting pushback from the retailers on where you are? Is that part of the rationale for bringing down Crisco? And what are you seeing in terms of the competitive response on pricing?

Speaker 6: And we go to them once a quarter and say, here's the trailing oil costs and what we believe we need to be priced at based on that moving up or down. So we're treating it more like a pure commodity, like coffee in the way we're managing with retailers and they're pretty happy with that.

Speaker 6: because there's more transparency and visibility to what is driving the pricing decisions and how we're driving that. And they're doing the same thing with their private label and other things. So it's just, we've moved to that model in the last, you know, at the very end of 22. So this is new. We weren't operating this way in 21, which is, excuse me, for the most of 2022. This is something that we are carrying into 2023 that will be a different way that we're managing pricing that I believe will be a cleaner way of kind of moving our price up and down in a volatile soybean oil market that's moving kind of in correlation with oil and also allowing us to preserve our gross margin dollars at different price levels.

Speaker 6: Okay, and then I'm sorry if I missed it. Did we say what the BACTA nature divestiture generated? And then when we look at the potential for additional assets for divestiture, what is the dollar range that we should be thinking about as we look at the overall capital structure and the maturities in 2025 and beyond? Yeah, we actually didn't disclose what the dollar amount was for BACTA nature. It was a reasonable, not earth-shattering amount.

Speaker 6: I think going forward, hard to really predict what the dollar amount of future M&A activity is going to be. I think the primary thing for us is shaping the portfolio. We're moving in the direction of business units, greater focus on what we're good at, greater focus on buying what we think we're good at, and potentially divesting things that are less core, and that will be the primary driver. I think the additional benefit from that will be opportunistically reducing debt in a high interest rate environment, I think is great, but really the primary driving force is going to be portfolio optimization.

Speaker 7: All right, then. Thank you very much. Appreciate it. Yep. Thank you. The next question we have is from Cara Casella from JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Okay. This is – sorry, just a couple follow-ups. Just a comment on your leverage target. You talked about getting to mid-sixes by the end of this year. Any sense for timing or trajectory of that, and does that include any potential –

Speaker 6: additional further asset sales? Yeah, I don't think we set an actual leverage target for this year. You know, not really commenting on what the number is. We do expect to bring it down substantially. I mean, we've got a ratio that we need to be inside of, and we're gonna work towards that. We have a plan to get there just organically, increasing EBITDA paying down debt.

Speaker 6: That can be enhanced by any portfolio moves that result in divestitures. But again, we're not in a world where we're setting divesture targets and an amount of proceeds that we expect to raise. That's not the expectation that we want to set for investors and it's not how we're planning to run the business necessarily. Okay. Great.

Speaker 7: And then you mentioned on the green giant self-stable product, the KAND, that you exited another low margin account. How much more of this is there to go? Or are we at a more of a base level where you're comfortable with the margin profile of the remaining green giant?

Speaker 6: I don't think we have any other exits of low margin business on Green Giant. I think this was a particular.

Speaker 6: dollar channel account that we weren't making a lot of money yet that we exited last fall. But we don't have any other active accounts that were driving changes in our distribution profile. I mean, for the most part, we are focused on Green Giant on improving our profitability, improving our mix, improving the...

Speaker 6: profitability of our new innovations coming into the market, that's been our primary focus. On the canned business, it's about maintaining stability and in terms of our volume and margins on that business, we don't see the canned vegetable business as a place we're gonna grow, we just wanna maintain a stable margin profile and keep it steady. Okay, great. And then within your kind of sales guidance for the year, can you give us any more granularity in terms of...

Speaker 6: and seasonings is in a higher growth rate category and you know that's our expectation there. I'm not going to give a number on it. As we said earlier when you think about Crisco, if we are in an environment where input costs come down and therefore pricing starts to normalize a little bit, you know hard to imagine that being a growth driver in a year where costs are going down.

Speaker 6: and price comes down. Outside of that, really would hesitate to try to give you actual numbers on a brand by brand basis.

Speaker 7: outside of that, really would hesitate to try to give you actual numbers on a brand by brand basis. Okay, that's great. And then just one last one. Retailer inventory levels, any comments there? Are there any retailers that...

Speaker 6: the same new carrying a little bit more inventory. Any kind of permanent or bento we have a permanent reduction in our stock levels. Thank you. The final question we have is from Eric Lawson from C-Port Research. Please go ahead. Yeah, thanks guys. Thanks for squeezing me in. So no birthday wishes for me.

Speaker 5: Is today your birthday, miss? No, it was two weeks ago. But it was close enough. Hey, happy, related birthday. All right. Now, so thanks. I guess I'm still in love. I guess I'm two weeks older and that much two weeks wiser than maybe Rob. But you know, who? You said that, not us. No, happy birthday, Rob, by the way. So anyway, my question's on cash. And so your third quarter is always your your seasonally.

Speaker 5: You see, you're a seasonally biggest bill for working capital because of the vegetable pack and all that sort of thing. It starts to come off pretty meaningfully in your fourth quarter. When I look at your, I don't know exactly what happened with inventory in a fourth quarter. I see your full year number is still up about 20%. And you used a little cash for networking capital in the fourth quarter this year, not as much as the year before. But...

Speaker 5: You know, do you have maybe some high cost oil inventories you've got to work off your yet? Can you give me a feel for how the flow of your cash will be for kind of For your first maybe first quarter second maybe first half second half or whatever you'd like to maybe you're talking 2023 not 2022 right correct correct

Speaker 6: So, the overarching theme both for 22 and 21 was input costs came up pretty significantly. We saw that in margin compression. Obviously, we benefited from pricing, but that flowed through our inventory. And so, you do have that seasonality where third quarter is always pretty rough. Fourth quarter is usually pretty good. This year's fourth quarter was pretty good, not as good as the prior year's fourth quarter, but it was pretty reasonable.

Speaker 6: But we've had two years in a row of over $100 million increases in inventory. We don't expect to have that phenomenon this year. We expect to have some favorability from a working capital standpoint, modest but favorability. And so working capital, instead of being a drain this year, should be a little bit of a benefit or at least mutual, which will make the whole cash from operations math feel a lot better.

Speaker 6: working capital or cash from operations if you look the last two years just imagine on a full year basis those numbers being you know plus a hundred million dollars higher because that's what the hurt was from any of the workers. Okay. Okay. And so you're caught your comment that that it should be you know at least favor a compare favorably this year it's on a full year basis and you're not you won't it's not necessarily a first or second half benefit it's it's for you're trying to characterize it as a full year. 100% okay. Alright. Plus the use of cash yeah.

Speaker 6: Okay, all right, sounds good. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Katie Keller for closing comments. Please go ahead, sir. Thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate your attention. As we talked, we had a good strong fourth quarter which showed recovery in our, you know, pricing and covering inflationary costs and we look forward to kind of getting in the fiscal year 23. Thank you. Thank you.

Speaker 3: Ladies and gentlemen, that then concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.

Speaker 1: I.

Speaker 1: The right.

Speaker 1: I.

Speaker 1: You.

Speaker 3: Good afternoon and welcome to the B&G Foods 4th Courses 2022 Arning's call.

Speaker 3: Today's call, which is being recorded, the schedule for last about one hour, including remarks by B&G Foods Management and the question and answer session.

Speaker 3: I would now like to turn the call over to Sarah Jarlham, Senior Director of Corporate Strategy and Business Development for B&G Food. Please go ahead, Mum. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us.

Speaker 4: With me today are Casey Keller, our Chief Executive Officer, and Bruce Vaca, our Chief Financial Officer. You can access detailed financial information on the corner in a full year in the earnings release we issued today, which is available at the Investor Relations section of BGfoods.com.

Speaker 4: Before we begin our formal remarks, I need to remind everyone that part of the discussion today includes forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and therefore undue reliance should not be placed upon them. We refer you to B&G Foods' annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent SEC filings for a more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact our company's future operating results and financial conditions. B&G Foods undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any

Speaker 4: begin the call with opening remarks and discuss various factors that affected our results, selected business highlights, and his thoughts concerning the outlook for fiscal 2023 and beyond. Bruce will then discuss our financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal 2022 and our guidance for fiscal 2023. I would now like to turn the call over to Casey. Good afternoon. Thank you, Sarah, and thank you all for joining us today for our fourth quarter and fiscal 2022 quarter earnings call.

Speaker 6: Fourth quarter performance demonstrated strong recovery with cumulative pricing actions covering inflationary costs, as we expected. Net sales increased plus 9% versus last year, with adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of net sales at 15% compared to 14.9% last year.

Speaker 6: Excluding items affecting comparability, gross profit as a percentage of net sales improved to 20.6% in Q4 2022, increasing versus 19.7% in Q4 2021. This is the first quarter in 2022 where margins were at least flat for improving year over year.

Speaker 6: some key perspectives on the results. Inflation. Total fiscal year 22 input cost inflation impact finished at greater than plus 20%. We are starting to see some moderation in key commodities, including soybean oil, wheat, corn, but cost still remain at historically high levels. In addition, freight transportation where housing costs moderated from last summer.

Speaker 6: following final price increases for 2022 implemented in August and October .

Speaker 6: increases for 2022 implemented in August and October . Volume.

Speaker 6: Q4 sales volumes were relatively resilient against the significant price increases to offset inflation, partly reflecting the improvement in year-over-year customer service levels. In total, sales volume declines were approximately $45 million in Q4. In particular, spices and seasonings net sales grew, plus 17.4% in Q4.

Speaker 6: driven by improved production and service performance. More than half of the Q4 volume declines were in green giant, driven by the exit of a low-profit canned business in the dollar channel, and higher elasticity following fall seasonal pack price increases. Supply and service. Customer service and fill rates improved during the quarter reaching over 95% in December . Last year, December service levels were less than 90%. Impacted by disruptions from the Omicron COVID variant in the supply and distribution network.

Speaker 6: Q4 results in performance, reflecting the catch-up of pricing against costs across the portfolio, a moderating inflationary environment, and the recovery of our higher margin spices and seasonings business. In fiscal year 23, we expect inflation to continue, but at lower rates. Currently estimated at plus 5 to 6 percent, with the biggest new pressures on tomatoes, glass, etc.

Speaker 6: So far, we have not seen significant declines on key commodities, for example, soybean oil, corn wheat, etc., from average cost levels in fiscal year 22. Again, we have raised prices selectively to recover higher input costs, but only against key commodity categories versus the broader actions required in fiscal year 22. We have also modified our pricing approach with customers on CRISCO to more accurately adjust to market costs on a quarterly basis.

Speaker 6: Finally, price elasticities are estimated to increase somewhat as the economy tightens and some consumers trade down on the margin to cheaper alternatives. As a result, we expect fiscal year 23 to demonstrate continued margin recovery as previously implemented pricing actions offset year-over-year inflation, particularly in the first half. Net sales, excluding investors, are expected to increase at plus 1 to 2 percent driven by pricing benefits offset by volume elasticities.

Speaker 6: We expect that sales growth will also be impacted by moderate price declines on Crisco to reflect projected lower soybean oil costs in the second half of the year while maintaining gross margin dollars. Bruce will discuss fiscal year 23 guidance in more detail.

Speaker 6: Further, we are continuing to make progress on reshaping the B&G Foods portfolio. The sale of the Back to Nature brand to Borula was completed in early January . It is a proactive step to exit the small, fragmented, lower margin snacks portfolio that is outside of the future B&G Foods core. The proceeds from the Back to Nature disaster were used to make a partial prepayment of our variable rate term loan.

Speaker 6: We are actively reviewing other investor possibilities to sharpen the portfolio focus and reduce leverage in debt. Finally, the transition to four business units, spices and flavor solutions, meals, frozen and vegetables, and specialty, remains on track and they are largely up and running. As discussed, these units clarify the portfolio focus and future platforms for acquisition and push accountability down to improve management and decision making. Business unit leadership is working to drive improved margins.

Speaker 6: better manage supply and demand and build stronger growth plans. We expect to be in a position to share business unit financial performance later this year. Thank you and I will now turn the call over to Bruce for more detail on the quarterly performance and outlook for the year. Thank you Casey, good afternoon everyone. Thank you for joining us on our fourth quarter in fiscal 2022 earnings call. As you can see we had a fairly strong finish to the fourth quarter to an otherwise challenging year. The primary challenges that we faced at the onset of the year, inflation, inflation and inflation.

Speaker 6: Inflation was fierce and it flowed into our numbers from the beginning of the year. Our pricing model was back half weighted though and so as we discussed in our previous earnings calls, our financial performance in the first and second quarters was extremely challenged. The third quarter was also difficult but we began to see green shoots as the pace of inflation began to moderate and our pricing began to catch up with costs. This dynamic set up a nice fourth quarter for us.

Speaker 6: which benefited from our pricing actions, a moderation in the pace of inflation, and a relatively benign comparison when looking at the fourth quarter of 2021, which was negatively impacted by supply chain disruption in the closing month of the year from the Omicron variant of COVID. In fiscal 2022, we generated $2.163 billion in net sales, $301 million of adjusted EBITDA, and $1.08 in adjusted diluted earnings per share. In the fourth quarter of 2022, we generated $623.2 million in net sales.

Speaker 6: 93.6 million dollars in adjusted EBITDA and 40 cents in adjusted diluted earnings per share. Our fourth quarter 2020, compared favorably to the prior year period, when we generated $571.8 million in net sales, $85.1 million in adjusted EBITDA, and $0.39 in adjusted diluted earnings per share. I will now highlight the performance of some of our larger brands. Net sales of CRISCO, the largest beneficiary of full year pricing in the overall B&G Foods portfolio, increased $16.8 million or $15.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022, as compared to the fourth quarter of 2021.

Speaker 6: Net sales of CRISCO increased by $78.5 million or 26.8% for fiscal 2022 as compared to 2021. CRISCO was expected to deliver $270 million in net sales annually when we acquired it in late 2020, generated more than $370 million in net sales this year. While costs are up significantly and margins are down, we were able to manage CRISCO to deliver profit dollars that were generally in line with our acquisition model. Collaboral Girl had another great year under B&G Food Donorship.

Speaker 6: Net sales increased $7 million or 28.8% in the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to the fourth quarter of last year. And for fiscal 2022, the cloud-based net sales increased by $17.5 million or 22% compared to 2021.

Speaker 6: Net sales of Prima Wheat increased by $5.1 million, or 26.1%, for the quarter, and $14.1 million, or 21%, for the fiscal year.

Speaker 6: Net sales of Ortega increased by $3.5 million, or 10.4%, for the quarter and increased by $3.1 million, or 2%, for the fiscal year. Our investments in supply chain appear to be paying off for Ortega, which had a strong second half of the year finish following a challenging first half, which was plagued by negative sales performance when compared to fiscal 2021.

Speaker 6: Maple grow farms increased by $1.3 million or 6.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the prior year period. Maple grow finished the year up $3.2 million or 4% compared to the prior year. Our Spices and Seasonings business which had been plagued with supply chain challenges throughout much of the year and had the lap peak 2021 performance also had a strong finish. Net sales of the Spices and Keyesings were up $13.4 million or 17.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Despite the slow start, Spices and Seasonings finished the year down just $12 million or 3.2% compared to the prior year. Fourth quarter performance represents a huge turnaround from the prior nine months of the year.

Speaker 6: in the aggregate increased by $15.4 million or 12.1% for the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 and increased by $22.1 million or 4.7% for fiscal 2022 compared to fiscal 2021. Gross profit was $126.1 million for the fourth quarter of 2022.

Speaker 6: $1.9 million for the fourth quarter of 2021, or 17.8% of net sales. Excluding the negative impact of $10.8 million of acquisition divestiture related expenses and non-recurring expenses included in cost of goods sold during the fourth quarter of 2021, the company's gross profit would have been $112.7 million.

Speaker 6: or 19.7% of net sales. Gross profit as a percentage of net sales, excluding the impact of acquisition divestiture and non-recurring expenses, was up approximately 100 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to last year's fourth quarter. The improved margins represent a significant turnaround from the first three quarters of the year, which saw gross profit as a percentage of net sales, excluding the impact of acquisition divestiture-related and non-recurring expenses down 530 basis points compared to the prior year periods. Selling general and administrative expenses

Speaker 6: decreased by $0.4 million or 0.9% to $51.9 million for the fourth quarter of 2022 from $52.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2021. The decrease was composed of reductions in acquisition to best related and non-recurring expenses of $6.5 million and consumer marketing expenses of $0.2 million. Partially offset by increases in general administrative expenses.

Speaker 6: of $2.3 million, warehouse expenses of $2.3 million, and selling expenses of $1.7 million. Expressed as a percentage of net sales, selling general and administrative expenses improved by 0.8 percentage points to 8.3% for the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to 9.1%.

Speaker 6: for the fourth quarter of 2021. We generated $93.6 million in adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $85.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. The increase in adjusted EBITDA was primarily attributable to our pricing initiatives which finally caught up to industry-wide input costs and logistics inflation.

Speaker 6: Additionally, we had a relatively strong finish to the year in 2022 that compared favorably to the fourth quarter of 2001, which was negatively impacted by the Omicron COVID variant. Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of net sales was 15% in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to 14.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021. Fourth quarter of 2022 was the first and only quarter of the year, which had year-over-year increases in Adjusted EBITDA.

Speaker 6: and adjusted evidosa percentage of net sales. The improved margins represent a significant turnaround from the first three quarters of the year, which had a decrease in adjusted evidosa up at the percentage of net sales of nearly 490 basis points compared to the prior year periods. Interest expense was $36.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $26.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. The primary driver for the increase in interest expense was an increase in our outstanding variable rate debt.

Speaker 6: which is currently tied to LIBOR as well as an increase in LIBOR. Appreciation and amortization was $19.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $21.6 million in the fourth quarter of last year. We generated 40 cents in adjusted diluted earnings per share in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $39.00 in the prior year.

Speaker 6: While we certainly had our share of challenges in 2022, we are very happy with our finish to the year. As a reminder, our first and second quarters of 2022 were the most challenging. The third quarter began to show improvement. Our fourth quarter was the culmination of a lot of hard work on the part of our organization over the course of the year as we adapted and responded to the cost pressure and supply change challenges that we faced. As we look forward, we are cautiously optimistic about our outlook for 2023 and beyond.

Speaker 6: We expect to have the most favorability as compared to 2022 in the first half of the year as we lap the greatest cross-drags from 2022. We believe that our third quarter will show a modest improvement in 2023 versus 2022, and that the fourth quarter of 2023 is expected to look similar in many regards to the fourth quarter of 2022. With that said, we have lived in an uncertain world for the last three years, and we don't fully know what the next set of challenges will be.

Speaker 6: But based on what we know today, we expect 2,023 net sales of 2.13 to 2.17 billion dollars, adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of 310 to 330 million dollars, and adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in a range of 95 to a dollar 15.

Speaker 6: Our guidance assumes pricing benefit throughout the year and modest volume declines, coupled with elevated cost environment and more modest levels of inflation throughout the portfolio. While the economy is still turbulent, we believe that we have seen the worst of the escalation in inflationary pressures and that unlike last year, pricing is finally being given the opportunity to catch up to costs. Additionally, we expect for full year 2023, interest expense of $145 to $150 million.

Speaker 6: including cash interest of $140 to $145 million, depreciation expense of $47.5 million to $52.5 million, amortization expense of $20 million to $22 million, an effective tax rate of 26.5 to 27.5%, and capex of $35 to $40 million.

Speaker 6: In addition to the risk factors discussed in our annual report, key factors that could lend to either upside or downside risk to our guidance include the level of elasticity that we may face given the price increases that we have already executed, as well as any additional elasticity as a result of our trade spend optimization efforts.

Speaker 6: And while we are hoping for at least a pause in the levels of inflationary pressures that we are seeing in certain input costs, we still live in a very uncertain world and must still expect the unexpected. We are also closely watching the promotional activity levels in our key categories and private label trends.

Speaker 6: We believe that the combination of a better operating performance in 2023 coupled with more favorable working capital trends and a reduction in our dividend announced last November will help drive our efforts to reduce leverage and improve our balance sheet. Now I would like to turn the call back over to Casey for further remarks.

Speaker 6: Thank you, Bruce. In closing, we are making progress to turn around and strengthen B&G foods, portfolio and performance. Q4 results demonstrated recovery with pricing covering inflationary costs and a positive reduction in leverage.

Speaker 6: We also completed a first step in reshaping the brand portfolio with the Bracton HR divestiture and have implemented the focused business unit structure to manage the portfolio with greater clarity and accountability. This concludes our remarks and now we would like to begin the Q&A portion of our call. Operator

Speaker 3: Thank you. So you will not be conducting the question in answer session. If you were first to ask a question, please press star and then one. The confirmation tone will indicate to your line is in the question queue. You may press star and then two if you would like to remove yourself from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your sunset before pressing the star key. The five question we have is from Andrew Luzoff from Buckley's. Please go ahead. Great. Good afternoon.

Speaker 6: I guess to start off, I think you mentioned 1 to 2 percent net sales growth guidance for the year. Does that incorporate the $50 million or so in lost sales from the sale of Back to Nature? But that would be an organic number with Back to Nature out of both the fiscal year 22 base and the fiscal year 23 numbers. Got it. Okay, so 1 to 2 is organic then. So in light of that, I guess I'm trying to get a better sense or any additional color you can give us on how that breaks down, best guess, in terms of the net benefit from pricing that you'll still have this year versus the type of volume offset.

Speaker 6: Obviously, at 17% pricing benefit in 4Q, you still, as you said, in the first half, have somewhat easier comps on pricing before you start to lap more significant price. And I'm trying to get a sense also of how you expect time to play out. At least at this stage, I know it's dynamic. Yeah, I mean, I think we expect to get pricing benefit in that 1 to 2%. But part of that pricing benefit will get offset when we, you know, because we have a plan on Chrisco that we will lower prices as soybean oil costs go down. So remember, we will go to retailers and adjust prices as soybean oil commodity costs move. And we expect them to move downward, particularly in the back half of the year, year, year, year. So there is a little bit of offset to our pricing benefit with Chrisco.

Speaker 6: But our pricing plan will preserve gross margin dollars, but will have a net sales effect. A typical commodity business kind of profile. The other impact is that we, the last year in the first quarter, we had fairly heavy demand behind kind of the...

Speaker 6: the Omicron variant, boosting demand, people staying home and other things. So that was, that's a little bit of a volume offset in the first quarter. You know, we expect to get, you know, the pricing benefit flowing through in the first quarter, but you know, demand may be a little bit down and I think you've seen that in most of the other, you know, peer company reports. So look, I mean, we will probably have modest volume decline offset by pricing benefit that yield to one to two percent offset by, you know, Crisco pricing going down as soybean oil costs go down, which is what we expect.

Speaker 8: Okay, and then Gross margins obviously a couple years ago prior to the pandemic and such in 19 and even 20 were sort of closer to that 24 to 25 percent level. Fourth quarter obviously you started to finally see the recovery year over year in Gross margin. I know there's a long way to go, but as you think through the outlook for 23, what sort of Gross margin recovery do you think we can get? Um, okemm.

Speaker 6: that's built into at least your EBITDA forecast. Yeah, go ahead. Yeah, I was going to say directionally it's going to be comparable to the movement that you're going to see in EBITDA margins. We don't typically give the gross margin forecasts for the year. We're going to be moving back toward that direction, but we're not going to get all the way there in 2023 and some of this is structural if you think about, you know, Crisco for example, you know that business is generally speaking generating the profit dollars of the business that we bought, but sales are $100 million higher.

Speaker 6: So when you think about that, what that just does from an algebra standpoint to your margins, it's going to compress them just structural compression even though you're generating the same amount of profit margin dollars. We have that same impact across our portfolio, put in a smaller way in some of the brands and categories, we had to take price, but maybe not as much price to protect dollars. And then, thank you so much. The easiest way to say that Andrew is that we expect to recover most of the gross profit dollars that we had in 2021 and 23 with our pricing actions. But obviously, as Bruce said, margins won't be the same because you've got a higher sales base that you're comparing the gross profit dollars to.

Speaker 8: Yep, that's helpful. And the last thing Casey, I think as you started to go through this more significant sort of portfolio review, we know it's resulted in a couple of smaller sort of investors so far. There is one larger asset, Green Giant, and Frozen, that you kind of said you need to start to get a little more clarity on whether that's a business that you're going to sort of be all in on or all out on. And if you're going to be all in on it, it probably would require gaining more scale. But either way, you had to improve the profitability first before we could kind of make that call. I think I'm trying to get a sense of where we are in that in that sort of journey of discovery. If you've got new thoughts one way or the other on how you're leaning.

Speaker 6: and where that temperature state and that business sort of fits into the portfolio going forward. Thanks so much. Yeah, I mean, the portfolio reshaping I think is an exercise where we are trying to, we're trying to obviously improve the margin profile of our core business and also the growth prospects of the core business and also platforms where we can acquire and build value. So the jury, I mean, the jury to me is not out on green giant. We're still working to improve the business. We're still evaluating longer term. Do we want to scale up in frozen, but it's an active discussion that we're having internally. There are other.

Speaker 6: questions. Can you give us the variable rate paydown that occurred after the back of nature sale for the dollar? Yeah we've paid down $60 million to the term loan so far this year.

Speaker 6: Great, thank you, Bruce. And the second question is, as you look across the portfolio and you think about the volume versus pricing versus the last-to-city kind of discussion, which segments are brands, you know, you're watching most closely, do you think they're most susceptible to private label where you may not have that pricing or may have to adjust pricing over time? I think it's a combination. I mean, clearly when you think about something like green giant on the can side, that's that's an area where we're always watching market share seeing what the branded competitors are doing and what the private label.

Speaker 6: Positioning, you know, it's commodity category the other one it is the brand but there was a lot of pricing and you have that across the portfolio to a lesser degree with everything Great. Thank you very much. I appreciate it The next question we have is from David Palmer from ever cool ISI, please go ahead Thanks, just a quick question on shipments versus consumption

Speaker 6: Would you expect the spread to be a positive shipment versus consumption in the first quarter as well? Well, I think what you're probably seeing in the consumption data in the first quarter is that the effect of Omicron shutdowns, I mean, our offices, for example, last January were kind of partially closed. We're seeing a hard comparison to the January , early February time period last year, and we will eventually shift to that consumption profile. We are seeing our consumption trends improve now in the back half of February as we've kind of come through that Omicron, you know, kind of stay at home office closure environment last year in January , early February .

Speaker 6: call outs, where else call outs. So we had trouble shipping towards the end of Q4 in 2021. We did not have any trouble shipping towards the end of the quarter in 2022. So we were basically our supply and distribution network was fully functioning. So I think that's the main difference why you have a slight difference in consumption and shipment.

Speaker 6: in Q4, but consumption was still reasonably strong in Q4 overall. And you don't have any of that Omicron disruption from last year that would... No, what we saw was that we saw a surge in demand in January and early February from the Omicron disruption. So I moved from kind of a supply problem to an elevated demand with stay-at-home consumption of food. And it's a move to a demand issue. So we had elevated demand last year. It was less of a supply and shipping problem. We had... We had service problems in an early part of Q1 last year, but we also had elevated demand going on.

Speaker 6: Q4, but consumption was still reasonably strong in Q4 overall. And you don't have any of that Omicron disruption from last year that would... What we saw was that a surge in, we saw a surge in demand in January and early February from the Omicron disruption, so it moved from kind of a supply problem to an elevated demand with stay-at-home consumption of food. And it's a move to a demand issue, so we had elevated demand last year. It was less of a supply and shipment problem. We had service problems in the early part of Q1 last year, but we also had elevated demand going on. Yeah, no, I'm just wondering because of those disruptions last year, if you're shipping...

Speaker 5: would be above consumption this year, but it doesn't sound like that's clearly going to be the case. I think we'll be shipping closer to consumption profiles this year because you don't have the disruption going on. Yeah. I just wanted to follow up on price elasticity for 23. Do you expect price elasticity levels to remain similar to the recent levels that we are witnessing in the measure channel data? And I'll just wrap in another question about price elasticity in there. What are some of the things that we're seeing going on? When we look at Green Giant and SPICES, it looks like the price elasticity is

Speaker 6: is much higher in those parts of the business. Maybe is there something temporary that's causing that? Any thoughts about your price elasticity levels going forward? Yeah, I think it obviously varies by category. Spice and Seasings, I think, is less of an impact of price elasticity. It's normally we still have a hangover from the first half of 21 where we had service issues so we are kind of rebuilding some of the distribution that we couldn't supply in that period. So I don't really think that's an elasticity issue. I do believe that we are forecasting slightly higher last this Mahstatyse on.

Speaker 6: what I'd call the commodity businesses, you know number one, Chris Goe and Green Giant, particularly on the can side, but also on some of the frozen vegetable side. We expect velocities will be below one, but a little bit higher than what we've seen in the past as consumers become more sensitive to the higher prices. And even if the percentage spread to private label is the same, the absolute dollar spread is growing a little bit. So, you know, we are expecting a little bit higher last-sities, but still expect to see some positive pricing benefit, you know, in 2023. Did that help?

Speaker 6: what I'd call the commodity businesses, number one, Crisco and Green Giant, particularly on the canned side, but also on some of the frozen vegetable side. We expect velocities will be below one, but a little bit higher than what we've seen in the past as consumers become more sensitive to the higher prices and even if the percentage spread to private label is the same, the absolute dollar spread is growing a little bit. So, we are expecting a little bit higher elasticities, but still expect to see some positive pricing benefit in 2023, if that helps. Yeah, but was there anything...

Speaker 6: particular happening with green giant or spices where you were taking outsized measures on pricing that was out of step with the category that was causing what we're seeing here. We don't think so in spices and again, spice had a great worth quarter. It had a slow start to the year in 2022, which for us at least was a lot more about supply chain. I know that there is a large public company that sometimes has different explanations for their trends, but they have a little bit different business than us. Certainly, 2021 was a phenomenal year for spices. It was challenging to laugh at in 2022. Those challenges probably were exaggerated for us in the first half, even the first three quarters of the year, but a pretty strong finish there. And 100 percent green giant canned is a very different business than spices. It's a much more commodified category.

Speaker 6: Remember, our spices business is not really in A to Z. It's more in blends and other things. So I don't believe that it was last issue that I said it was, we had some supply problems in the first and second quarters of last year that we had difficulty supplying and we had to rebuild distribution in which you saw happening in the fourth quarter. So I think it's more around our supply and service portfolio, excuse me, performance and recovering all of that lost distribution and getting back in business, which is what you're seeing happening now in Q4.

Speaker 6: where consumers trading down might give you a benefit. And of course others will wear it be a headwind. Just any, maybe potentially, puts in takes, but how that's factored into your thinking on the year. Yeah, I mean, to be honest, we haven't historically really tried to tie snap benefits into our forecasts. A little bit tricky for us. I know people follow it. It's just not something that we historically commented on.

Speaker 6: But I think net we are expecting more price sensitivity in kind of lower middle income consumer base next year, which is why we've factored up some of our elasticities on our more commodity driven businesses where we have higher private label penetration. So I think we've factored in some element of that that you're talking about, but it's more around overall price sensitivity and a little bit higher elasticity from what we saw in 22.

Speaker 6: I think, net, we are expecting more price sensitivity in kind of lower and middle income, consumer based next year, which is why we factored up some of our elasticities on our more commodity driven businesses, where we have higher private label penetration. So I think we factored in some element of that that you're talking about, but it's more around overall price sensitivity and a little bit higher elasticity from what we saw in 22. Okay, that's helpful and.

Speaker 6: Just when you touched on close to the end of the prepared remarks the potential for some trade optimization, can you unpack a little bit how that might look and how difficult that may or may not be to achieve and what potentially share implications could be? I think this is an ongoing efficiency and productivity effort that we've been working on for the past year, which is just to take a look at our trade performance and ensure that we're getting appropriate returns forward and moving towards our better promotion events. We're not reducing trade spending in 2023 as kind of a percentage basis, but we're trying to optimize the performance of it to make sure that we're producing stronger returns and stronger lifts on the events that we do run with customers. Historically, we haven't, in my opinion, we have not done enough post-promotion analysis to really understand that to adjust our plans and to drive efficiency. So, I don't think you're going to see a reduction in our trade spend, you're going to see an optimization that.

Speaker 6: hopefully will drive better performance and lift off the spending that we do have. Could there be upside to trade spending, just given that most of the industry is still below pre-COVID levels? I mean, we've brought trade spending back to get closer to the pre-COVID levels. Look, you know, I think the upside to me is if we can get stronger event performance with the spending that we're doing by readjusting the way we're spending our money and what types of events and vehicles we're using. So that to me is the upside of trying to get a more efficient trade spend program and optimizing the spending performance. Okay, that's helpful. Thank you. Thank you. The next question we have is from Robin Moskow from Credit Suisse.

Speaker 5: He's good with hand to brawp. Happy birthday. Oh, that's very kind of you and heartwarming. Appreciate it. What better way to spend it, right? Now my question. What gives you the ability on pricing on Chrisco going lower in the back half? Is it because it's lower now and then you know it's going to you're going to be able to flow that through in the back half or is it just kind of you just think vegetable oil prices are really high and they have to go lower and then I had a follow up.

Speaker 6: I think it's really, we don't know, Rob. We don't know for certain, but the reason why we're saying that is, we saw prices, if you just think about the market, we had prices above 80 cents a pound on soybean oil last year, moderating down to probably 70 cents a pound as we're going into fourth quarter. Now, we're down in the low to mid 60s, and price per pound, and just our intelligence says we expect it to stay there or maybe go a little bit lower, which means that as we get into the back half,

Speaker 5: where we were experiencing those big pricing moves last year, we think it will be probably below where, we'll know where the market was last year in the third and fourth quarters in particular. Okay. And then I wanted to know about your CapEx guide. It's really pretty low. It's really no different than it was in 2019. And at the CAGNY conference, we heard a lot about companies investing in CapEx, not just for capacity, but also to automate and digitize their supply chains, put in more up-to-date equipment to gain efficiencies. And I think just keep up with a more volatile demand environment.

Speaker 6: Are you concerned that your supply chain may not be keeping up with your peers that are making these investments? I think the couple of pieces that you have to remember is call it roughly 50% or so of our business is made through co-packers or contract manufacturers. There is a little bit less to demand from a percentage of sales if you want to think about it that way from our factories. And then when you think about our CAPEX spending over time, fair point it's similar in dollar terms to where we were probably 2018-2019. We were in the process back then of implementing the GDE ERP systems and so there was a couple years of elevated spend that that was probably plus $10 million annually.

Speaker 6: to get that done. And so that going away allowed us to kind of continue to spend a comparable dollar amount, but probably more of those projects in line with what you're thinking about. The even kind of 2021, parts of 22, we still have pretty large spend on the projects that we did around Ortega, well from Otaku Shell and Otaku Sauce, where we increased some capacity there. And so there are examples of what you're talking about. I don't disagree with your comment other than there's some offsets to it with regards to, you know, this year potentially not having a big spend project like JDE or any Taku Shell line.

Speaker 6: I would say that, you know, our, because our capital is shifting from, you know, the ERP implementation to what we're doing with capacity additions. This coming year, we will be more focused on kind of BI software enhancements, also planning software enhancements, planning systems. I mean, we see a big opportunity to improve the effectiveness of our supply operations, our planning operations, and, you know, pulling down inventory levels and other things. So that's becoming a larger focus of where we're shifting our time and attention from a capital and upgrade standpoint. Okay. Very good. Thank you. Thanks. The next question we have is from Rob Dickerson from Jeff.

Speaker 6: First quarter and second quarter of 2023 will have some favorability built in just from from lapping really bad performance from 2022. 2023 in the third quarter should be probably a little bit better than 2022, but the degree probably won't be the same as the expectations around Q1 and Q2. And then Q4 in 2023

Speaker 6: probably look more similar to Q4 in 2022. Meaning kind of we had a pretty good fourth quarter, was relatively normal from a margin standpoint. I wouldn't expect material upside in fourth quarter of 2023, you know, when we go to lapid. But you should have some pretty good margin upside in the first quarter and particularly in the second quarter of this year. Okay, got it. Perfect. And then, I guess just to come back to this, trade optimization strategy, you know, kind of vis-a-vis the share trends that we're seeing, you know, you realize that there's been some supply constraints in the system.

Speaker 8: and I also realized what you said earlier, right, it's not that you're reducing that trade, but you're optimizing it. So I'm just curious, as we think forward through 23, I'm assuming obviously the point of optimizing a trade program is kind of like regained share, at least in some of those categories, so maybe...

Speaker 6: you just provide any additional color as to kind of how you're optimizing the trade and maybe if there are areas where you think might be a bit more supported relative to history. That's it. Thanks. Yeah, I think it's as simple as, you know, we want to make sure that we are promoting and that we're promoting at competitive levels in key windows. We want to make sure that we're getting the right lift from that spending. So on, you know, some of our businesses like, you know, Crisco and Green Giant, Ortega, we will be competitive in the key, you know, promotion windows and merchandising windows. We will adjust kind of our performance based on what we're learning about, you know, where we're most effective. As I said before, I don't really expect that we're going to

Speaker 6: reduce promotion spending, we just want to make it more effective and we want to drive efficiency and lift behind the existing spend that we're doing and we want to make sure that we're promoting in the right places. And coming off this inflationary environment, we've got to make sure that we have the right price points, competitive price points, relative to competition and private label, which is what we're doing and we think we're a well planned to be able to do that in our key merchandising programs.

Speaker 6: Thank you. The next question we have is from Jeffries. Please go ahead. Good afternoon. When you look at the pricing, are you getting pushback from the retailers on where you are? Is that part of the rationale for bringing down Crisco? What are you seeing in terms of the competitive response on pricing?

Speaker 6: I think actually we're in a good place with retailers on Chrisco because we are treating it more like a commodity pricing situation. So we've told them on a quarterly basis we'll adjust pricing up and down on Chrisco to reflect the actual market costs. So we approach, we go to them once a quarter and say here's the trailing oil costs and what we believe we need to be priced at based on that moving up or down. So we're treating them more like a pure commodity like coffee in the way we're managing with retailers and they're quite, they're pretty happy with that. Because there's more transparency and visibility to what.

Speaker 6: is driving the pricing decisions and how we're driving that. And they're doing the same thing with their private label and other things. So it's just we've moved to that model in the last, you know, at the very end of 22. So this is new. We weren't operating this way in 21, which is excuse me for the most of 2022. This is something that we are carrying into 2023. There will be a different way that we're managing pricing that I believe will be a cleaner way of kind of moving our price up and down in a volatile soybean oil market that's moving kind of in correlation with oil.

Speaker 6: and also allowing us to preserve our gross margin dollars with different price levels. Okay, and then I'm sorry if I missed it. Did we say what the back to nature divestiture generated? And then when we look at the potential for additional assets for divestiture, what is the dollar range that we should be thinking about as we look at the overall capital structure and the maturities in 2025 and beyond? Yeah, we actually didn't disclose what the dollar amount was for back to nature. It was a reasonable, not earth-shattering amount. I think going forward, hard to really predict what the dollar amount of future M&A activity is going to be. I think that the primary

Speaker 7: Okay, this is, sorry, just a couple of follow-ups. Just comments on your leverage target. You talked about getting to mid-sixes by the end of this year. Any sense for timing or trajectory of that, and does that include any potential?

Speaker 6: that we need to be inside of and we're going to work towards that. We have a plan to get there just organically increasing EBITDA, paying down debt that can be enhanced by any portfolio moves that result in divestitures, but again we're not in a world where we're setting divestiture targets and an amount of proceeds that we expect to raise. That's not the expectation that we want to set for investors and it's not how we're planning to run the business necessarily. Okay, great. And then you mentioned on the Green Giant self-stable product that you...

Speaker 6: exited another low margin account. How much more of this is there to go? Or are we at a more of a base level where you're comfortable with the margin profile of the remaining green giant? I don't think we have any other exits of kind of low margin business on green giant. I mean, I think this was a particular dollar channel account that we weren't making a lot of money yet, that we exited last fall. But we don't have any other active accounts that were driving changes in our distribution profile. I mean, for the most part, we are folks on green giant on improving our profitability, improving our mix, improving the profitability of our new innovations coming into the market. That's been our primary focus.

Speaker 6: per se. I think certainly you would imagine to see things over time like spices and seasonings is in a higher growth rate category and you know that's our expectation there. I'm not going to give a number on it as we said earlier when you think about Crisco, if we are in an environment where input costs come down and therefore pricing starts to normalize a little bit, you know hard to imagine that being a growth driver in a year.

Speaker 6: of the less need for safety stock. So just thoughts there. We haven't seen any big adjustments in our retailer inventories in, you know, in the last several months. I mean, we've seen the typical pattern of their year end, they kind of pull inventories down a little bit, but we haven't seen any kind of permanent or been.

Speaker 9: Um, uh, thanks for squeezing me in. So no birthday wishes for me. Is today your birthday, man? No, it was two weeks ago, but it was close enough. Hey, happy belated birthday. All right. So thanks. Um, I guess I'm two weeks older and that much two weeks wiser than maybe

Speaker 9: biggest bill for working capital because of the vegetables pack and all that sort of thing. And it starts to come off pretty meaningfully in your fourth quarter. Yet when I when I look at your I don't know exactly what happened with inventories in the fourth quarter, I see your full year number is still up about 20%. And you use the little cash for networking capital in the fourth quarter this year, not as much as the year before, but you know, do you have maybe some

Speaker 9: high-cost oil inventories you've got to work off here yet. Can you give me a feel for how your cash will be for your first maybe first quarter second maybe first half second half or do you like to maybe you're talking 2023 not 2022 right correct correct yeah

Speaker 6: But we've had two years in a row of over $100 million increases in inventory. We don't expect to have that phenomenon this year. We expect to have some favorability from the working capital standpoint, modest but favorability. And so working capital instead of being a drain this year should be a little bit of a benefit or at least neutral, which will make the whole cash from operations. Math be a lot better. Okay. Just imagine.

Speaker 9: working capital or cash from operations if you if you look at the last two years just imagine on a full year basis those numbers being you know plus a hundred million dollars higher because that's what the hurt was from it. Okay and so your comment that it should be you know at least favorably compare favorably this year it's on a full year basis and you're not you won't it's not necessarily a first or second half benefit it's it's for you're trying to characterize it as a full year.

Speaker 9: capital or cash from operations if you if you look at the last two years just imagine on a full year basis those numbers being you know plus a hundred million dollars higher because that's what the hurt was from it okay okay and so you're caught your comment that that it should be you know you know at least favor compare favorably this year it's on a full year basis and you're not you're you won't it's not necessarily a first or second half benefit it's it's for you're trying to characterize it as a full year 100%

Speaker 6: Okay, let's have the use of cash. Yeah. Okay, all right, so long good. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I would not like to tell the floor back over to Kate Kelley for closing comments. Please go ahead, so. Thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate your attention. As we've talked, we had a good strong fourth quarter, which showed recovery in our, you know, pricing, covering inflationary costs. And we look forward to kind of getting into the fifth year, 23. Thank you. Thank you. So.

Speaker 2: Ladies and gentlemen, that then concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.

Q4 2022 B&G Foods Inc Earnings Call

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