Q4 2022 Summit Midstream Partners LP Earnings Call

February 24, 2023

The conference will begin shortly to raise and lower Johan during Q&A, you can dial star one one.

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Yes.

Good morning, and thank you for standing by welcome to the Summit Midstream partners fourth quarter 2022 earnings Conference call.

At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation. There will be a question and answer session to ask a question. During the session you will need a press star one on your telephone you will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised to withdraw your question. Please press star one again, please be advised today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand, the conference over to your Speaker today Randall Burton. Please go ahead.

Thanks, operator, and good morning, everyone. If you don't already have a copy of our earnings release. Please visit our website at Www Dot summit midstream Dot com, where youll find it on the homepage events and presentations section of our quarterly results section with me.

Me today to discuss our fourth quarter of 2022 financial and operating results is Heath Deneke, Our President Chief Executive Officer, and Chairman Bill Moore, Our Chief Financial Officer, along with other members of our senior management team.

Before we start I'd like to remind you that our discussion today may contain forward looking statements. These statements may include but are not limited to our estimates of future volumes operating expenses and capital expenditures. They may also include statements concerning anticipated cash flow liquidity business strategy and other plans and objectives for future operations although.

We believe that the expectations reflected in such forward looking statements are reasonable we can provide no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Please see our 2021 annual report on Form 10-K, which was filed with the SEC on February 28 2022.

Our 2022 annual report on Form 10-K, which will be filed soon.

As well as our other SEC filings for a listing of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expected results.

Please also note that on this call we use the terms EBITDA adjusted EBITDA distributable cash flow and free cash flow. These are non-GAAP financial measures and we've provided reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our most recent earnings release and with that I'll turn the call over to Keith.

Great Alright, Thank you Randall and good morning, everyone.

On the call with a recap of key highlights on summit performance of major accomplishments. During 2022, and then set the stage for what we think is a very exciting outlook for 2023, which is expected to generate 40% or more year over year adjusted EBITDA growth.

I'll hand, the call over to bill to provide more details on our fourth quarter segment results as well as additional details on our 2023 financial guidance.

Starting with our 2020 financial results, we generated $212 3 million of adjusted EBITDA for the year, which exceeded the midpoint of our original guidance range as Bill will elaborate further on in the call. Our fourth quarter results were negatively impacted by approximately $4 million of one time adjustments.

Compensated compensation related expenses and some production shut ins that were caused by extreme weather along the front range in December .

Right.

We should have come in closer to the top end of our guidance range.

On the strategic front summit made a tremendous amount of progress executing on our plan to high grade our portfolio of assets generates and generate scale and a balance sheet enhancing manner.

During the year, we sold our underperforming lane G&P system and bison gas system for approximately 15 times, LTM, EBITDA, multiple which generated about $150 million of cash proceeds.

Within utilize those proceeds along with a well executed $85 million second lien tack on financing, which by the way. It was executed in a very challenging high yield market and we use those proceeds to help fund two synergistic and value accretive bolt on acquisitions around our Hereford DJ system.

Clothing for separate A&D transactions over roughly a six month period is no small task and I want to recognize and thank all of the sudden employees for their extraordinary efforts and accomplishments to not only close the deals, but also superbly manage a safe smooth transition and integration of the assets employed into our operations.

I am pleased to report that within two months from closing the DJ transactions. We're now fully now running a fully integrated super system in the DJ Basin, which is driving a lot of growth in our 2023 outlook.

We also launched our first fulsome ESG annual report in the second quarter, which has been very well received by our employees and stakeholders and we also set up a new group that we referred to internally as summit climate solutions, which is focused on energy transition and emission reduction opportunities in the U S.

Our BD and commercial team originated several new commercial opportunities and contracts around our existing footprint. It really help expand our dedicated inventory and acreage around our footprint.

And also our <unk> team has stepped up in a big way to really help plan for a busy year.

300, new wells that are slated to come online during 2023 and roughly about two thirds of which are actually scheduled to come online during the first half of the year and that's on top of connecting roughly 50, new wells during the fourth quarter of 2022.

So it's been a very busy year and very productive year for summit and our employees for sure.

So let's shift gears now to our 2023 outlook.

Earlier. This morning, we announced full year 'twenty, three adjusted EBITDA guidance of $290 million to $220 million, which at the midpoint represents again over 40% year over year growth on an absolute basis and approximately 15% growth. After you normalize for the 2022 acquisitions and divestitures.

With more than 350, new well connects on a producer scheduled this year 23 is shaping up to be a year that is much more in line with our historical levels of activities on our systems versus what we have experienced and frankly endured over the past couple of years during the pandemic.

There are currently 12 active rigs running on our system as we speak and we already have a roughly 235 docks drilled but uncompleted wells in our inventory across our footprint.

While crude prices have held up relatively well in the upper 70 plus levels.

We're very mindful that gas prices have declined by more than 45% since October .

And therefore, we are really intensified our efforts to update and reconfirmed all of our producer plans, particularly those in our gas weighted basins.

As always our producer plans can and do change at times throughout the year, but our well count and the turn in line date schedules reflect real time feedback from each of our producers.

And we have taken steps to further with those plans and the 2023 guidance range that we have provided.

If our producers hit their current turn in line dates and production targets, we expect to be at the high end of our adjusted EBITDA guidance range.

The low end of our range reflects roughly a 20% reduction in planned welcome that and we have further risk the timing of wells that are slated to come online in the second quarter and beyond.

As always we will continue to monitor customer activity and will provide updates as we progress throughout the year.

While we're certainly seeing a ramp up in activity levels and volumes will continue to benefit from the fact that our systems are largely built out and have plenty of available capacity to handle the anticipated volume growth.

For our 2023 capital guidance ranges from $45 million to $65 million this year, including maintenance and it also reflects $10 million to $15 million of one time expenditures to kind of fully integrate and optimize.

The Hereford out rigor and Sterling systems in the DJ.

Moving to the balance sheet, which remains at the top of our priority list, we expect to generate between $100 million to $130 million of free cash flow that's available for debt paydown within a range.

At the midpoint of the range, we expect total leverage at year end to be around four five times, which keeps us on track to achieve our long term target leverage ratio of three five times or less by the year end of 2024.

So before I turn it over the call to Bill I wanted to spend a minute on <unk> and other strategic objectives for summit in 2023.

Been discussing.

The rentals and new Mexico continue to support further commercialization of our <unk> pipeline system.

As you all know new Mexico has been extremely active with over 100 rigs running for several quarters now, which we continue to believe will lead to residue gas pipeline constraints. So as early as late 2023 early 2024.

<unk> continues to progress and gain traction on commercial discussions with various customers along the pipeline system and we remain optimistic.

It will be successful in securing new ft commitments to fill up our existing capacity, which would have a very meaningful impact starting in 2024 and beyond.

On the M&A front, while we will continue to opportunistically evaluate both value and credit accretive bolt ons as well as non core divestitures that could further accelerate delevering and improve our credit metrics.

Our focus is on executing and optimizing our existing business and the footprint that we have.

Fully capturing the synergies and the opportunity set around our newly acquired DJ assets and building liquidity, while we maximize debt pay down throughout the year.

So with that I'll hand, it over to bill to provide additional details on our financial results in 'twenty three guidance Bill.

Thanks, Keith and good morning, everyone. As Heath mentioned, we had a great year and are extremely excited about how 2023 is shaping up I will start by discussing our financial performance followed by providing a bit more color on our 2023 guidance.

<unk> reported a fourth quarter net loss of $23 9 million adjusted EBITDA of $53 million, resulting in full year 2022, adjusted EBITDA of $212 3 million above the midpoint of our original guidance range and free cash flow of over $70 million for the year.

There were approximately $4 million of weather and unusual compensation related expenses incurred during the quarter.

And obviously there is a bit of noise going on in the fourth quarter, given we sold bison in September of 2022 and closed on the DJ acquisitions on December one.

If we had owned the Doj businesses for the full fourth quarter. We estimate we would have generated an additional $8 million of adjusted EBITDA.

We wanted to provide some clarity as we know a lot of our investors look at run rate EBITDA. So at $50 million of as reported plus $4 million of weather and unusual expenses plus another $8 million for a full quarters contribution of the DVA acquisitions that would suggest a run rate EBITDA closer to $62 million for the fourth quarter.

<unk>, providing a little bit more context for everyone. As we look forward into 2023.

Capital expenditures totaled $10 6 million for the quarter and $31 5 million for the full year 2022.

And with respect us ethanol <unk> balance sheet, we had approximately $330 million outstanding under our $400 million ABL credit facility.

And just over 11 million of unrestricted cash on hand.

Our available borrowing capacity at the end of the fourth quarter totaled approximately $64 1 million, which included $5 9 million of Lcs.

Given the D J basin acquisitions in the fourth quarter, we should see that ABL balance continued to reduce throughout the course of the year.

Now turning to the segments.

In the northeast, which is inclusive of our SMU system, our proportionate share of Ohio gathering joint venture and our Marcellus system. The segment average 135 Bcf per day during the quarter, which was inclusive of 754 million a day of eight eight OTC volumes and.

And segment adjusted EBITDA totaled $19 1 million.

Slight decrease of <unk> 3 million from the third quarter of 'twenty two.

The variance was largely due to natural declines on wells on the system, partially offset by higher margin mix behind our OTC joint venture and 14, New wells brought online during the quarter.

Which six for connected behind our wholly owned Utica system and the remainder behind OTC.

There are currently four rigs running behind our system to behind our wholly owned SMU system and more than 40 docs behind the OTC and SMU SMU and mountaineer systems.

The Rockies segment, which is inclusive of our DJ and Williston Basin systems generated adjusted EBITDA of $13 8 million, which was down by <unk> 4 million relative to the third quarter largely due to a winter storm in December that caused several days of outages and their interruptions in North Dakota and Colorado.

We estimate the winter storm negatively impacted gross margin by approximately $1 million during the quarter.

Liquids volumes averaged 64000 barrels a day a decrease of 2000 barrels a day in natural gas volumes averaged 42 million a day, an increase of 24 million cubic feet per day relative to third quarter.

This was primarily due to the addition of the outrigger and DJ outrigger in Sterling assets that closed in December of 'twenty two.

The Rockies segment currently has two rigs running behind our systems and more than 150 docks, which represents nearly every well connection we are expecting in 2023.

Under the Permian Basin segment, which includes our 70% interest in the <unk> pipeline reported adjusted EBITDA of $4 2 million was down 0.7 million relative to the third quarter, primarily due to lower volumes on <unk>.

We believe that the low natural gas prices in <unk> were the primary driver for customers diverting some of their volumes off of <unk> to other higher priced end markets during the quarter.

The PFS segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $14 7 million up <unk> 4 million relative to third quarter due primarily to lower operating expenses during the quarter, partially offset by natural production declines and no new wells connected to the system.

Volumes averaged 295 million cubic feet per day, a slight decline relative to third quarter.

There is one rig running behind the system today and 17 wells are started coming online here in late February 2023.

The Barnett segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $7 2 million a decrease of <unk> 6 million relative to the third quarter, primarily due to lower natural gas sales and an increase in direct operating expenses.

<unk> were up 8 million cubic feet per day quarter over quarter due to eight new wells connected to the system during the second half of 2022.

There are currently three rigs running and 13 docs behind the system today.

And with that I'd like to focus now on our 2020 through guidance.

And to reiterate a few of his comments the.

The midpoint of our guidance range risk the timing of well connections relative to our customers provided the low end risk all of that even further and the high end assumes customers hit their timing targets.

We have 12 rigs banner system, and 235 docks, which represents just over 70% of the expected well connections at the midpoint of the range.

In addition, nearly 65% of those well connections are expected in the first half of 2023, which provides great visibility into the level of activity we are expecting.

Breaking the activity down even further 50% is in crude oriented areas, 35% is in liquids rich gas areas and only 15% is in dry gas areas.

We also spent a significant amount of time reviewing customer hedge portfolios and believe a significant portion of 2020 through three volumes in the northeast are fairly well hedged.

The breadth and depth.

Breadth and diversity of the increasing activity is driving volume and EBITDA in every region.

Behind solid systems.

In the northeast we are currently expecting 75 to 85 well connects in 2023, which is nearly double the 41 well connects in 2022.

With that level of activity along with the significant volume growth we've experienced beyond OTC in the third and fourth quarter of 2022, we are expecting more than a 10% increase in volume throughput year over year.

As we've mentioned on prior calls banker customer behind our SMU system recently acquired 27000 net acres in the Utica is beginning to develop on that acreage with two rigs running currently.

In the Rockies, which compared to last year. The region has seen quite a transformation and just as a reminder, that segment includes our Williston oil and produced water gathering businesses, the Hereford gathering and processing system and now the recently acquired DJ Basin gathering and processing systems two.

2022 included nine months worth of Bison midstream assets, which we sold in September and only one month of the DJ acquisitions.

We are currently expecting a 140 to 180 well connects in 2023 with $70 to 80 coming from the Williston all of which are docs are currently being drilled and the remainder in the DJ This level of activity will drive significant volume growth in both liquids and gas volumes in 2023.

To add that we've been extremely encouraged by the commercial discussions we've had in the DJ basin in the last couple of months and while we haven't included any upside in our guidance range. We do believe there are some near term opportunities that could provide significant long term value to our stakeholders.

Over the Piceance, we're expecting 55% to 70 well connects in 2023 17 of which have started coming online in February 2023, compared to zero in 2022. We expect this level of activity will result in flat to modest volume growth and approximately 4% EBITDA growth.

Now to the Barnett, we're expecting 25 to 30 wells in 2023, which we expect will result in about 15% volume throughput growth from the prior year.

There are currently three rigs running and 13 docs accounting system and several of these wells are slated to come online in the next few months with the remainder expected in the second half of the year.

While we have seen a sizable decline in expected 2023 natural gas prices over the last couple of months.

Evel of activity and recent cover customer conversations continue to suggest that all of these wells.

I'll turn in line here in 2023.

Shifting to the Permian as Ive mentioned, we remain very optimistic with the long term outlook for <unk> and the commercially <unk> efforts ongoing and we expect to have some material updates for you all throughout the course of the year.

Finally, I'll spend some time discussing capex for the year.

We're expecting $35 million to $50 million in growth Capex for 2023, and $10 million to $15 million maintenance Capex. The majority of the growth Capex for 'twenty three will be spent in the Rockies segment.

In the Williston and DJ we have a number of pack can ask given the increase in well connections expected for the year. Additionally, in the DJ Basin.

Some additional integration work that we will continue to optimize the system beyond what's already operational today. This represents approximately 10% to $15 million of our 2023 capital plan.

With $290 million to $320 million are expected to adjusted EBITDA and 45% to 65 million of capital expenditures.

Fact significant debt paydown throughout the course of the year.

And with that I'll turn the call back over to Heath for closing remarks.

Alright, Thanks Bill.

As we discussed on the call today, we're obviously very pleased with the progress that we made in 2022, and we're really excited about the outlook and opportunity set for summit in 'twenty three and beyond.

We are laser focused on maximizing free cash flow in the business fully commercializing our recently acquired DJ basin businesses as well as our <unk> systems and we're also focused on paying down debt and driving leverage to below four five times by year end.

So thank you for your time and continued support and with that operator, I'd like to open the call up for questions.

Thank you.

Reminder, to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone.

Please wait for your name to be announced to withdraw. Your question you May Press Star one again.

One moment, while we compile our Q&A roster.

And our first question comes from the line of Gregg Brody with Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Good morning, guys. So I appreciate all the very thoughtful throughput.

Uh huh.

And well count forecast and Thats helped us think through whats happening.

Maybe just to start on the on the Permian.

You said youre thinking about.

We should expect to hear some announcements this year.

How do you see the type of filling up in your view is it could we see some additional volumes. This year and you just it's just not in the guidance or is that likely a 24 of it.

Yes, I mean I think we.

Hi, Greg Keith I think we'll see some some volume growth.

Throughout the year on <unk> I think what we're what we're stating is that a lot of the conversations we're having about starting up new contracts.

It's probably going to be more impactful in our 'twenty four 'twenty five time period than in 2023.

That's what I heard so thats helpful.

Sure.

And just.

Turning to the.

On the balance sheet I know you are planning on paying down debt.

I know there is a special provision that you have to make an offer to.

Secondly, there.

I believe in April can you just remind us how that works and then what you'll do with that cash if if the bonds.

If it's not accepted.

Because that accepted.

Yes.

Yes, Greg.

Good morning, and thanks for joining so Greg given the given the DJ basin acquisitions, we actually utilized all of our free cash flow in 2022. So you all should expect.

50 basis points step up here in April .

As we look at 2023 and the cash flow profile for the year.

As a reminder, if we get to that 100 million of cumulative offers by the end of 'twenty three that interest rate will step back down.

Eight 5%.

This was a fairly conscious decision obviously, when we made the decision to acquire the DJ basin assets and.

It's our call it another $3 five $4 million of incremental interest expense for 2023.

Am I correct that you are.

So we offered it wouldnt be made until 'twenty, four though or is there yes.

Yes, yes, so basically after we file our 10-K, we've got a handful of days to make notification to the extent there is cash flow available for sweep and then I think the actual.

The process of making those offers probably takes up to 30 days. So you are looking at some time in kind of March April time frame.

Got it so for now the assumption is 50 basis points step up for a year and next year got it.

Got it.

Just the last one coming back to volumes.

I appreciate it.

In the northeast.

It profiles of your of your of your customers. How do you think about 'twenty four I know I know, it's a little early to do that but maybe.

Maybe even greater frame sort of frame that first in terms of risk to volumes.

Yes, I think for 'twenty four look I mean, we're certainly seeing the impact on the gas strip here I think a lot of it is due to just the abnormally warm weather certainly in the northeast and most of the U S. So I actually feel like.

If we continue to see the sustained.

Low gas prices I think that that could probably start adversely impacting 'twenty four but I feel like that we're going to see some normalization and hopefully some more normal like weather.

Upcoming winter.

Kind of continues to support the trajectory that we're on.

Yes, and Greg I'd, just add to that.

While we're seeing some decent growth behind our footprint when we look at kind of the aggregate level of activity of our key customers.

This isn't necessarily suggesting growth from their perspective, probably more maintenance related activity levels.

And when you look at the Utica in general over the past call. It three years rig counts have been actually fairly steady.

You didn't see that dramatic increase in rig count like your data in the Haynesville.

So a lot of these producers are really just kind of keeping volumes in maintenance mode and.

I think this year is a little bit of a tailwind for summit.

More of that activity hitting our systems.

Some of our competitors from a midstream perspective over the past couple of years.

I think thats consistent with what you see subsidiary recover a lot of those those northeast Scott on the E&P side.

It's about maybe in your other basins.

What.

What did you what are you seeing there for 24.

Yes, I think when you think about it yes.

Yes, I mean, it's hard to speculate I'll now again, I think I think.

$3 plus gas price environment, I would expect to see the the programs that our customers for example in the Piceance or are working on getting I think we have over 200 wells that are in the process of getting permitted and we're working with them on the infrastructure to be able to connect and flow those wells and so.

In our 'twenty three guidance, we have shifted some of those volumes and well connect activity out and some have we've actually kind of moves that would likely go back into 2024. So we've tried to reflect that.

A bit in 'twenty three but.

Like I said I think it's really just going to depend on.

Longer term do we start seeing a little bit more recovery in the gas price deck and what we're seeing here in 2003.

Yes, I appreciate that the Barnett, yes, Greg in the Barnett too we've got hotels, one of our large customers, we've got private private equity backed customer.

Customer out there.

Total has various uses for that gas whether it's on the electric.

Our generation side or LNG exports. So I think there's a little bit different equation for a producer like that.

But again I think in a $3 plus environment.

Given the proximity of the Barnett kind of basis differentials in that area.

We think that will continue to support activity.

But.

I think Steve mentioned.

Where we're seeing prices today is a bit of anomaly given.

How warm are aware we had.

Great unless I appreciate that.

So it's very early but I appreciate your perspective.

Last one.

M&A can you talk about the opportunity set.

I think there is there is a lot to do.

Two is on your press release, maybe you can give a little color around that.

Yes, I mean look it's clearly not our focus in 'twenty three we do see a fair amount of good opportunities like we did.

With the Sterling and outrigger system, there's more of that around our footprint.

But that's the focal point here is to continue to build liquidity and reach our target debt level. So.

With that being party number one yes, if we can execute on a deal that improves our credit metrics and.

Or a divestiture that we could sell and accelerate delevering in a non core system. We will certainly continue to look at those things, but I don't think our intent.

Today or at least what we're.

We are staring at today, we feel like we've got a really solid portfolio. We've got a lot of activity, we're seeing a fair amount of.

A lot of growth actually this year on system. So our focus is really just capturing as much.

Just ensuring that we execute this year and that we maximize all the volumes and optimize those assets and really kind of get our debt pay down.

That were targeting here so that's the focal point, but.

On their term and certainly as we look out.

And once we get to R. R.

Levels, we definitely see quite a few systems that fit really well.

We think we can buy it at a good valuation.

Net.

Long term, we can continue to kind of consolidate in and around our footprint, but just not not not a priority for us in 'twenty three.

Thank you for the time guys.

You bet. Thanks.

Thank you.

And this does conclude today's question and answer session.

And ladies and gentlemen. This does also conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect everyone have a great day.

Okay.

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Q4 2022 Summit Midstream Partners LP Earnings Call

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