Q1 Delta Air Lines Inc Earnings Call
Speaker 1: financial results conference call.
Speaker 1: My name is Matthew and I will be your coordinator.
Speaker 1: At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode until we conduct a question-and-answer session following the presentation.
Speaker 1: As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.
Speaker 1: If you have any questions or comments during the presentation, you may press star 1 on your phone to enter analyst questions queue at any time.
Speaker 1: I would now like to turn the conference over to Julie Stewart, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Matthew, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us for our March quarter 2023 earnings call.
Speaker 2: Joining us from Atlanta today are our CEO Ed Bastian, our President Glenn Hauenstein, and our CFO Dan Janki. Ed will open the call with an overview of Delta's performance and strategy, Glenn will provide an update on the revenue environment, and Dan will discuss costs and our balance sheet. After the prepared remarks, we'll take analyst questions. We ask you please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up so we can... Formersmith emeritus rebuilding manager glenn integeking manager
Speaker 2: statements. Some of the factors that may cause such differences are described in Delta's SEC filings. We'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures and all results in excluded special items unless otherwise noted. You can find a reconciliation of our non-GAAP measures on the investor relations page at IR.delta.com. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Jen to explain what we should look at.
Speaker 3: Thanks, Julie. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today.
Speaker 3: 2023 is off to a strong start for Delta with record advanced summer bookings, the launch of free Wi-Fi, and continued recognition as the industry leader not only by our customers, but by Fortune, Serum, and the Wall Street Journal.
Speaker 3: During the March quarter, we generated earnings of 25 cents per share on revenue that was 45% above last year and a record for the March quarter. Delta's operating income was $550 million, a more than $1 billion improvement year over year.
Speaker 3: bringing our trailing 12-month operating profit to nearly $5 billion.
Speaker 3: We generate close to $2 billion of free cash flow in the quarter, reflecting robust demand for summer travel.
Speaker 3: Better than expected cash generation enabled us to accelerate that reduction, moving us closer to our goal of returning to investment grade metrics. A fall in of very solid performance by our team in the seasonally weakest quarter of the year.
Speaker 3: Delivering safe and reliable service remains our top priority and no airline does this better than Delta. I'd like to thank our teams for all they do for our customers each and every day.
Speaker 3: The dedication, professionalism, and hard work of Delta's 90,000 people worldwide are the foundation of our company.
Speaker 3: Sharing our financial success with our people has always been an important part of our DNA. Our industry leading profitability in 2022 enabled us to pay out more than $550 million in profit sharing in February . More profit sharing than the rest of the industry combined.
Speaker 3: And we're looking forward to larger payouts next year as we expect to deliver significant earnings improvement.
Speaker 3: We also rewarded eligible employees with a 5% pay increase on the 1st of April and received strong ratification from our pilots on the new four-year contract, providing well-deserved increases for all of our people.
Speaker 3: The performance of our people and the momentum of our brand was recognized when Delta was ranked number 12 overall on Fortune's World's Most Admired company list. A remarkable statement about the resiliency of our company given the pandemic challenges of the last few years.
Speaker 3: Our brand is built on a foundation of service and operational reliability, and we are committed to delivering the level of service our customers expect as we ramp operations for the coming summer season. The operating teams have done a great job getting ready and we are planning to grow June quarter capacity 17% over last year to meet strong customer demand.
Speaker 3: This growth is though a couple points below our initial plan to fully restore capacity this summer as we focus on delivering the best operation in the industry and remain prudent in our capacity restoration.
Speaker 3: As I mentioned at last December's Capital Market State, aviation infrastructure is still fragile. But collectively, we're working to ensure resiliency as we manage constraints around the supply chain, aircraft delivery delays, and training needs. I want to commend the FAA for collaborating with the industry.
Speaker 3: to help improve the customer experience in New York by temporarily relaxing minimum flight requirements given ATC staffing challenges.
Speaker 3: Turning to our outvote, with solid first quarter performance and visibility into the strength of summer travel demand, we are confident in our full year guidance for revenue growth of 15 to 20% year over year.
Speaker 3: earnings of $5 to $6 per share, and free cash flow of over $2 billion, the three main guideposts we shared with you last December .
Speaker 3: For the June quarter, we expect to deliver the highest quarterly revenue in our history.
Speaker 3: a 15% operating margin and EPS of $2 to $2.25 a share.
Speaker 3: Our forecast operating profit of $2 billion matches Q2 of 2019, demonstrating that the earnings power of this franchise is intact.
Speaker 3: Glenn and Dan will provide more details on the components of our outlook.
Speaker 3: As we look to our upcoming investor day in June , we'll outline the long-term opportunities that we've cultivated through years of investment.
Speaker 3: building on our industry leadership position and further enhancing our long-term financial profile.
Speaker 3: One focus area will be innovation in digital technology, where we continue to grow our leadership position. Increasingly, it's one of the reasons customers are choosing Delta, with significant growth in direct bookings and higher engagement through our digital channels.
Speaker 3: We have reached an important step in our digital transformation with the rollout of fast, free, high-quality Wi-Fi, which has been a tremendous success. We began this effort several years before the pandemic, and it has required significant investment and resources to achieve.
Speaker 3: In addition, this month we begin rolling out Delta Sync for SkyMiles members, which will unlock a more personalized customer experience in the air and on the ground.
Speaker 3: When customers join the SkyMiles loyalty program, it enables us to deepen our trusted relationship and create stronger brand preference.
Speaker 3: As we've rolled out fast free Wi-Fi, as well as other benefits, new Skymiles memberships have accelerated at a record pace. Growth has been particularly strong among younger customers with a record 3 million total enrollments during the quarter. Thanks to the size and growth of our loyalty program, the value of our Amex Co-Brand card portfolio continues to reach new heights.
Speaker 3: constructive and we are well positioned to grow earnings and cash flow in 2023, 24 and beyond. Delta continues to set itself apart. We are on our way to transcend the industry with our leading consumer brand and deliver financial outcomes that create significant long-term value for our owners.
Speaker 3: Thank you again, and with that, let me hand it over to Glenn for more details on our commercial performance.
Speaker 3: Thank you, Ed. I'd like to start by thanking our employees for the difference that they make every day.
Speaker 3: We delivered record March quarter revenue at $11.8 billion, 14 percent higher than 2019 on 2 percent less capacity. Total unit revenues or the PRASM was 16 percent higher than the same period in 2019.
Speaker 3: These results include approximately one point impact from flying less capacity than initially planned.
Speaker 3: Consumer demand was well ahead of pre-pandemic levels and drove strength in domestic and international travel.
Speaker 3: Business travel improved in the quarter with small and medium businesses ahead of 19 levels, while managed corporate travel showed steady progress led by international.
Speaker 3: Diverse revenue streams, including premium and loyalty, generated 56% of total revenue in one queue.
Speaker 3: Premium revenue growth continued to outpace the main cabin.
Speaker 3: Total loyalty and revenue grew 28% versus the prior year with continued momentum in our American Express co-brand portfolio.
Speaker 3: We saw cards spend up more than 20% year over year. This supported a record $1.7 billion of remuneration from American Express during the quarter, keeping us on track to deliver over $6.5 billion in 2023.
Speaker 3: Throughout the recovery, travel behaviors and patterns continue to evolve.
Speaker 3: The hybrid workplace is blurring the lines between business and leisure trips while the removal of change fees has increased customer flexibility allowing them to book trips earlier.
Speaker 3: This dynamic was more pronounced in the March quarter, so we are continuing to adopt and see opportunities to further optimize our revenue management approach to these new travel behaviors in future months. We expect June quarter revenue to be up 15 to 17% year over year on capacity that is 17% higher.
Speaker 3: This implies unit revenues will be flat to down 2% compared to prior year, including a couple of point impact from higher international mix as well as lapping record cargo revenues.
Speaker 3: For comparison to the March quarter, the midpoint of this outlook is a three-point sequential improvement in total unit revenues versus 2019 driven by improvements in both domestic and international.
Speaker 3: Moving forward, we are sunsetting the comparisons to 2019 and returning to year-over-year metrics.
Speaker 3: Domestically, we are growing our seats mid-single digits over last year, with our core hub rebuild beginning to take hold in June and accelerating through the fall.
Speaker 3: On International, we are excited with the momentum we're seeing and expect record revenues and profitability for the summer travel season.
Speaker 3: To meet increasing demand, we are growing our international seats by more than 20% in the June quarter compared to prior year.
Speaker 3: and we already have about 75% of our bookings on hand.
Speaker 3: In the transatlantic we're seeing strong demand on our largest ever summer schedule. Our Amsterdam hub performance continues to improve and we are pleased with the outlook for all of our new markets.
Speaker 3: In Latin America, momentum is continuing to build. The breadth of Delta's long-haul network to South America continues to improve as we begin to leverage our partnership with LATAM.
Speaker 3: Pacific demand is accelerating and we expect record margins meaningfully ahead of pre-pandemic levels. Our multi-year restructuring efforts in the Pacific are paying dividends and our partnership with Korea and Air is performing extremely well providing us future growth opportunities.
Speaker 3: In closing, consistent execution of our long-term commercial strategy is supporting industry-leading margin performance in demonstrating the resiliency of our business model.
Speaker 3: The long-term investments we made in our fleet, global network, and technology paved the way for future growth and margin expansion.
Speaker 3: Thank you and with that I'd like to turn the call over to Dan to talk about the financials.
Speaker 3: Thank you, Glenn, and good morning to everyone. For the March quarter, we delivered earnings of 25 cents per share and a 4.6% operating margin in line with our guidance.
Speaker 3: Our non-fuel costs were 4.7% higher than the first quarter of 2022, including a one-point impact from lower capacity primarily due to winter storms.
Speaker 3: Fuel price for the quarter averaged $3.06 per gallon.
Speaker 3: This including a 25 cent benefit from our refinery which continues to provide a unique hedge to fuel volatility.
Speaker 3: Our operating cash flow was $2.9 billion. That was the highest March quarter result in Delta's history.
Speaker 4: After investing 1.1 billion back into the business.
Speaker 4: we generated $1.9 billion of free cash flow. Strong cash generation enabled $1.2 billion of debt reduction.
Speaker 4: This including accelerated debt repayment of $700 million with an average interest rate of 7%.
Speaker 4: Liquidity ended the quarter at $9.5 billion and adjusted net debt of $21 billion.
Speaker 4: Our leverage ratio improved from five times at year end to 3.9 times at the end of March on a trailing 12 month basis.
Speaker 4: We now expect to complete our full year plan debt reduction in the first half of the year, and will continue to evaluate opportunistic debt repayment.
Speaker 4: Over the last year, we accelerated more than $3 billion in debt reduction.
Speaker 4: targeting our highest cost debt and reducing our interest expense. Recognizing this progress we are making, S&P and Fitch both upgraded their outlook for our ratings.
Speaker 4: Returning to investment grade metrics is a key priority. We remain focused on reducing that debt and achieving our targeted 2 to 3 times leverage ratio in 2024 while continuing to consistently reinvest in the business.
Speaker 4: Returning to investment grade metrics is a key priority. We remain focused on reducing that debt and achieving our targeted 2 to 3 times leverage ratio in 2024, while continuing to consistently reinvest in the business. Now, moving to guidance for the June quarter.
Speaker 4: On fuel, we expect our fuel price per gallon to be $2.55 to $2.80.
Speaker 4: including a 10 to 15 cent contribution from the refinery.
Speaker 4: While lower than that last year, I'd note that fuel prices remain volatile and are still approximately 30% higher than 2019.
Speaker 4: On non-fuel, we expect unit costs to be 1 to 3 percent higher than prior year. For the first half, we expect to grow capacity 17 percent, approximately two points less than our initial expectations, with a similar two-point impact.
Speaker 4: expected honor unit cost. More than three months into the year, our absolute costs are tracking as expected.
Speaker 4: Higher labor rates are fully incorporated across the mainline and Regionals.
Speaker 4: Inflation is stabilizing and we are in the final stages of our rebuild.
Speaker 4: By the end of June , aircraft reactivation will largely be complete.
Speaker 4: By the end of June , aircraft reactivations will largely be complete and training is starting to step down.
Speaker 4: with a third of our pilots moving into production.
Speaker 4: As I outlined on our call in January , core maintenance is higher year over year in the first half of the year. We expect it to decline in the second half, resulting in a 5 point year over year progression and our unit costs from the beginning of the year to the end.
Speaker 4: Secondly, achieving scale while restoring efficiency are Delta's largest chasm levers. The pace of capacity restoration remains the primary level.
Speaker 4: In summary, we are confident in our year-over-year decline in the second half and expect a 10-point improvement in our unit cost progression as we progress through the year.
Speaker 4: Running the most reliable operation in the industry is key to delivering a competitive cost structure and underpins our industry leading margins.
Speaker 4: Combined with our outlook for revenue, we expect the June quarter operating margin to be 14 to 16%.
Speaker 4: and earnings to be between $2 and $2.25 per share. With a quarter behind us and the visibility we have in the summer.
Speaker 4: We have higher confidence in our full year guidance for significant improvement in earnings and free cash flow. We are reaffirming our full year guidance for operating margins of 10 to 12 percent, earnings of five to six dollars per share, and more than two billion dollars of free cash flow. And we remain on track to earn over seven dollars per share in 2025.
Speaker 1: I'd like to turn it back to Julie for Q&A. Matthew, can you please remind the analysts how to queue up for a question? Certainly. At this time, we'll be conducting the analyst question and answer session. If you have any questions or comments, please press star 1 on your phone at this time.
Speaker 1: We do ask that while posing a question, please pick up your handset if you're listening on speakerphone to provide optimum sound quality.
Speaker 1: We do ask that all participants please limit to one question and one follow-up.
Speaker 1: Once again, if you have any questions or comments, please press star 1 on your phone.
Speaker 1: Your first question is coming from Mike Lienenburg from Deutsche Bank. Your line is live.
Speaker 1: Hey, good morning everyone. I have one question but it's a two-part sort of pronged revenue question maybe for Glenn or Ed. There is this ongoing debate about the pace of revenue growth and whether it's moderating and domestic versus international. I know Glenn you gave some color on that but you did also talk about
Speaker 1: a shift in the booking curve, which I think you referred to as being pronounced. One, can you dig into that a little bit deeper and maybe how that could be having some impact on the data? And then number two, when I think about Delta and your network, I mean, you do have the most exposure to the industrial heartland, and you look at the FMM number over the last five months, we've been
Speaker 1: contracting, right? The manufacturing sector may now be in a recession and that's a part of the world that you have a decent amount of exposure to. What both corporate and or discretionary that flow through sort of Detroit mini, is there any additional color that you've seen that you can sort of elaborate with respect to that comment? Thanks.
Speaker 3: that's starting to decline. Usually those occur earlier in the year. So I think that just points to the strength of
Speaker 3: of the core demand for our products and services, be it domestic or international, just at a combined level, the number two sales day in our total history, occur in this wee.
Speaker 5: And so.
Speaker 5: behind that backdrop a really strong consumer demand across the board, I think what we've seen is travel patterns changing and shifting a little bit more than they did pre-pandemic. We had a lot of stability pre-pandemic and we're adjusting here into what I would call a new normal and we'll figure out exactly where that lands over time. What that meant in the quarter...
Speaker 5: was materialization rates actually went down a bit throughout the quarter and materialization rates to us is book to flown ratios. Normally just a couple of points, accelerating a couple more points more than usual, probably attributing that to the flexibility without change fees that we're seeing in the marketplace.
Speaker 5: That's really easy to accommodate as we just turn up slightly our overbooking levels to make sure that we capture the higher load factors. And then secondly is the booking trends inside of 30 days. And we were knowing that inside of 30 days, we were going to be able to capture the higher load factors.
Speaker 5: was declining And the strong demand was just outside of 30 days And so the demand is very strong and it's a matter of how many you let through the gate at what point in time And we had for example Wanted to go into month three to four points ahead We're tiling that up a little bit to be more like five to six points ahead
Speaker 5: given that the combination of the materialization rates, which has some impact on that of course, but also where consumers are booking. I think those are just RM tactics that we're using to adjust to this new demand set, and I don't think that it indicates that there is any softness in core demand strength. So I think we feel really confident in the summer in what we have on track.
Speaker 5: is one tick below the rest of the system. But you've also had rationalization in competing hubs in the region. And so there's, you know, will you say, okay, well, maybe some of the industrials, these hubs are not point to point like Boston or New York, they're really the connecting flow within the US.
Speaker 5: There's opportunity as we continue to restore those networks to put more flow on the network. Not 100% resilient, reliant of course on Detroit, mostly reliant on the flow traffic that flows over Detroit. I think what we're seeing, we see strength in all of our core hubs. Our core hubs are less restored than our coastal gateways and that's one of the upsides that we have for the rest of the year.
Speaker 3: Hey, good morning everybody. I'm Glenn as we think about the swing year on year in the second quarter from domestic strength last year to international momentum this year. Do you recall what the domestic portion of international journey contributed to last year's second quarter domestic revenue, what it's likely to contribute this year?
Speaker 3: and what the normal second quarter contribution used to be.
Speaker 5: Domestic portion of international journey is right around 10.
Speaker 5: percent of domestic travel.
Speaker 5: So it's not that big of an impact and last year was probably seven or eight and this year is probably going to be eight or nine so I wouldn't say there's significant changes in that. The summer of course is highly reliant on the local demand since we sit in very big local markets for international marketplace so New York and JFK being the largest in particular.
Speaker 5: Generally, if you can take local, you prefer local because yields are higher. JFK is largely 80% local for international travel. Maybe let's rely on Atlanta. Of course, it has more flow on it, but still a large local component.
Speaker 3: Okay, helpful. And as we assess the, I guess, achievability of the second quarter revenue guide, could you disclose what percent of revenue is already booked by entity? International tends to book, you know, further in advance, so I'm assuming that's your highest confidence.
Speaker 3: Are we 70% booked internationally and 40 domestically, 60, 30? We are 75% internationally and we're significantly less than that domestically.
Speaker 6: Okay. All right, perfect. Thank you. Appreciate it. Thank you. Your next question is coming from David Vernon from Bernstein.
Speaker 6: All right, perfect. Thank you. Appreciate it. Thank you. Your next question is coming from David Vernon from Bernstein. Your line is live.
Speaker 1: Hey, good morning guys. Glenn, please don't drop the mic. Question for you. Can you walk us through why revenues maybe came in at the lower end of the 1Q range and talk to us if there's anything in there that was trailing off through the quarter? I ask this because the market's really struggling with whether Delta's limping or leaping into the June quarter.
Speaker 7: and any color on what drove the source of weakness in 1q and whether that may carry forward in 2q could help a lot. Thanks.
Speaker 5: Clearly, I think we talked a little bit about the two components. One was we have one point less capacity driven by some weather events and recovering from those weather events.
Speaker 5: The second is the fact of the lower materialization rates and the RM systems adapting to those that we couldn't do it real time because you have to see if they're stable before you adjust for them. So I think that's what we're looking at in the second quarter. And as we mentioned in the...
Speaker 5: Versus 19, we have positive momentum, one Q to two Q, both domestically and internationally. So I think we're feeling, I know there's a lot of anxiety about domestic demand for the summer, but we don't share that anxiety. Okay, thanks for that. And maybe just as a quick follow up.
Speaker 7: You mentioned corporate domestic or core domestic corporate bookings is 85% recovered. Is the expectation, can you talk a little bit bigger picture about how you expect that to trend throughout the rest of this year based on the research work you've done, based on what your bigger corporate flyers are telling you right now and the level of certainty that maybe they have on some of those plans? Well it depends what we call it.
Speaker 5: Our corporate travelers are telling us they expect that to continue to accelerate. We are not counting that, we are counting a stable at 85% revenue and 75% of traffic.
Speaker 6: That's in the TQ guide? Yes. All right. Thank you. Thank you. Your next question is coming from Savi Sith from Raymond James. Your line is live.
Speaker 8: Hey, good morning everybody. Maybe switching gears a little bit, it looks like capacity in 2Q is a couple points lower than you were thinking back in December . Where is that? Is that mostly coming out of the domestic market and along those lines as you go into the summer months? How do you think about the four entities?
Speaker 5: covering from weather events. So we canvassed where those short-haul falls were, and they were primarily in the domestic narrowbodies that we want to ensure we have the right resources behind them, because we know we'll have weather events in the summer, as we always do. So it was just a bit of a step back, not really by demand, but really by supply, that our supply was a little bit more constrained than we had hoped. And that should be a-
Speaker 4: We're just deeper into the restoration. I think as we've gotten deeper in, we've continued to have better visibility to that. We have all the labor dialed in as we've talked about. You're seeing stabilization in the regionals. That was one that we chased last year. As it relates to third-party suppliers. We first looked at it, it's hard to imagine. We didn't need to say that from an honesty standpoint, it's hard for the state to understand what we did.
Speaker 4: You know, the, the peak of the contract. Inquiries and re, pricing was heavy. In 4th quarter of 21 began in the 1st, half of 22 and if you look at those requests. Coming in, they've dropped off meaningfully.
Speaker 4: for that, so I think you're starting to see that stabilization in the inflation component of third party and coming in very in line with what we expected from that perspective. So just better visibility, I think we're deeper into the restoration, so operationally arms on it.
Speaker 4: Related to that, so our absolute cost disability is good at this point in time. Certainly the unit cost metric as we've talked about is impacted by the ultimate capacity that we fly. Thank you.
Speaker 4: of cost visibility is good at this point in time. Certainly, the unit cost metric, as we've talked about, is impacted by the ultimate capacity that we fly. Thank you.
Speaker 6: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Duane Finningworth from Evercore ISI. Your line is live.
Speaker 9: Hey, thanks. Good morning. Most of the sort of short-term revenue questions have been asked, but just on corporate, can you talk a little bit about maybe the changes, if any, that you saw since mid-March? Any commentary on financial services or banking in particular?
Speaker 9: And then relatedly, there's so many headlines around technology and layoffs, and I know you're less levered to that, but could you contrast how recovered is the technology vertical from a corporate travel perspective relative to other industries that you serve?
Speaker 9: Relatedly, there's so many headlines around technology and layoffs, and I know you're less levered to that, but could you contrast how recovered is the technology vertical from a corporate travel perspective relative to other industries that you serve? She is one of the least...
Speaker 5: financial services is actually showing some momentum surprisingly.
Speaker 5: And so, you know, I think as we think about our geographic poll, one of the things we're excited about is New York was really not back last year, and of course we have a lot of exposure to New York. We're seeing really good New York not only as an origin market improvement, but New York as a destination market improvement as well.
Speaker 5: So that should bode well for us for the summer. And again, I think what's really interesting is more of the blurred lines between the yields of corporate and high-yield leisure that didn't exist back pre-pandemic five years ago. And so where we're not selling those premium seats to corporates, we are selling them at near corporate. $10 range from Bazan join34 with v1. The
Speaker 5: rates to high-end leisure customers and that's really providing a very nice insulation for us. Wayne, one thing I'd add to that is that you're seeing corporately a pretty significant push to get workers back in the office and we have seen a high correlation between the opening of offices
Speaker 5: with the return of corporate travel, principally with consultancies, advisors, people being available to take meetings. And so that underlies the strength, and I think you're gonna continue to see that over the course of the year. It's gonna be, I think, a good tailwind for us on the corporate revenue front.
Speaker 9: Thanks. And then just on for my follow up with respect to the Core Hub restoration and maybe getting back some of your RASM premium to the extent that you see that as a driver. You know, where are we on Core Hub restoration and sort of what part of the calendar as we think about the balance of 2023?
Speaker 5: Would you expect that to really contribute? Thanks for taking the questions. No, thanks for that question because I think it's very important. I think when we outlined back in December , coral restoration is one of the highlights of 2023 that is distinctive about deltas. What we didn't say is when that occurred in 2023 and kind of a mea culpa on that because
Speaker 5: In the first half of the year, that really wasn't what happened. It starts right around now and it goes through the fall, so that should be really a key driver for us as we move through the back half of the year, both on costs and on revenue. Yeah, revenue and costs, yes. Thank you.
Speaker 6: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Connor Cunningham from Malleus Research. Your line is live.
Speaker 10: Hi, everyone. Thank you for the time. So the range of outcomes on revenue is still pretty wide for the full year. I'm just curious if you could unpack the high and low assumptions. Presumably you have pretty good visibility on the first half. Just curious on the swing factors as you think about the second half for your revenue.
Speaker 5: I think we see the same reports that everybody sees. I think Ed outlined very well that we think there is still remaining pent up demand from the $300 billion that was not spent on airline travel during the pandemic. So we'll see how that plays out in the fall and we have a lot of flexibility in terms of what we offer as we get out of the summer. What we're seeing today is we are confident through the summer.
Speaker 5: And then we'll take another look as we get closer to it. Do we see any demand trends changing? I think what we hear from the marketplace, everybody's looking for those signs. We don't see them right now. So we would tell you if we did. And if we do see them, we'll make the adjustments that would be required for the fall. Okay, and then maybe following up on Savi's earlier question. Dan, I think you mentioned that you have.
Speaker 4: that had a two point impact on unit cost. We're still sitting here in April , so we have a lot of the year to play out as it relates to capacity, and as we progress through the year and set that, that will ultimately determine it. If you went through the year and you made that up, you picked that up, if not, it would have a corresponding impact on unit cost as you progress.
Speaker 4: But as we talked about on the point, what's obvious, our visibility to absolute cost is clear and better than it's been in the restoration. And as you go through the back half, you get that inflection point, the points that we've talked about with core maintenance stepping down from being a headwind to a two to three point benefit. And as Glenn talked about with the restoration it helps you start to pick up scale and efficiency.
Speaker 4: associated with that and the rebuild steps down. So that gives us confidence in the progression. Ultimately we'll be where on a unit basis, where do you fall out as it relates to capacity impact that has.
Speaker 4: But as you know here, we're focused on running a great operation, and the alignment is to the primary financial outcomes, which is margins, earnings, and cash.
Speaker 6: Okay, thank you. Thank you. Your next question is coming from Catherine O'Brien from Goldman Sachs. Your line is live.
Speaker 11: Hey, good morning everyone. Maybe just a follow up on the cost side. Just a clarification on that 10 point cost progression. You know, with March quarter up just under 5%, does that mean we should be modeling December quarter to be down 5% or how should we be thinking about that 10 points? And then, you know, that improvement, that's driven by costs you have really good visibility on right.
Speaker 4: down mid single digits from that perspective. The maintenance is the five points, four to five points related to first half being up to back half being down. The other drivers there is rebuilt, those transition rebuild costs we incur about 80-85% of them in the first half of the year.
Speaker 4: really aircraft reactivation, its training, its hiring components, those step down. And I mentioned that in the prepared remarks, pilots being one of the crews, being one of them, we're putting 600 pilots into production. So it's really the first time.
Speaker 4: over the last 18 months that are actually, Schoolhouse will actually step down here during the second quarter. And then the other components are the efficiency, scale and efficiency that start to step in as you get the core rebuild. About five points of aircraft utilization and we just get a better use of our facilities and our people as we progress through the back half.
Speaker 11: Great, makes a lot of sense. Then maybe one for Glenn. Can we just dig into the corporate sales international ex-China 90% recovered? Can you just walk us through how that looks from your different cabins? Are business class cabins running at a similar level restored? And then by type of trip, are you still seeing a similar number of out and back road warrior type trips as you were pre-COVID? Thanks so much.
Speaker 5: Most of the business travel internationally is in the front cabin. So I'd say 75 to 80 percent is in the front cabin.
Speaker 5: So that's fueling front cabin strength. I'd say all of our premium products in the long haul international markets are doing incredibly well. This is really the first year we have premium economy at scale. About 85% of our flights long haul now have it. So that will be 100% by next year.
Speaker 5: So we're flying this for the first time with Ubiquity in the international arena and we're seeing amazing results on the premium economy count, on the premium select.
Speaker 5: So, very excited about the rebound in international travel, both leisure as well as business.
Speaker 11: What was the second part of your question? I'm sorry. Yeah, just like on the type of trip, are you still seeing those kind of like shorter road warrior out and back type trips to the same degree, or are you seeing the length of trip change at all here? We are seeing the length of trip change. And road warriors are
Speaker 5: not staying one day, day trips are down. And that's really what we're trying to harness here as we move forward is normally we would use AP Advanced Purchase as one of the big key drivers for separating out business versus leisure. Now it's really stay, and even with stay, it's not as defined as it used to be.
Speaker 5: Those are the fences we're trying to rearrange how we think about our pricing systems and fencing. We don't want to get too much into how we think about that, but clearly AP is one that we're leaning out of.
Speaker 5: fences we're trying to rearrange how we think about our pricing systems and fencing. We don't want to get too much into how we think about that but clearly AP is one that we're leaning out of. Thanks for the caller.
Speaker 6: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Scott Group from Wolf Research. Your line is live. Hey, thanks. Good morning. I got just a couple of near-term thoughts and then a longer-term question. So the 70% books for Europe and significantly less domestically, how does that compare with you?
Speaker 6: pre-pandemic sort of levels entering Q2 and then the overall unit revenue flat down slightly. Is there a difference domestically, internationally, on the year-over-year trend?
Speaker 5: 75% is about where we would expect to be at this point in time for international long haul. Domestic, we are within a couple of points of where we would expect to be. It's really how much you want to take in advance and when you think about 90 days, it's not all 90 days. Inside of 30 days, we want to be ahead. You have all tired of riding the
Speaker 6: So that's the difference. Second question, I'm sorry. There was just like the resin for the unit revenue flat to down slightly for Q2, is there a difference domestic international?
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, it's a mixed difference. International is up significantly and domestic is relatively flat, versus year over year.
Speaker 6: And then, Ed, on the prepared comments, you said you expect strong earnings growth again in 2024. Is that a market macro comment or are there company specific tailwinds that you have that you can share? When I look at the second half guide, it's sort of
Speaker 6: flat issue year over year. So what changes in 24 to get back to strong earnings growth, anything company specific?
Speaker 5: Well, I don't know what you're inferring on the second half guide. We haven't given a second half guide. I think you're just backing into the overall. We haven't updated our full year. I think it's too early in the year to give an updated 23 guide. But if you look at our 24 guide, it's to get to the north of $7 a share.
Speaker 4: And that's the trajectory we're on into.
Speaker 5: One comment I made which I haven't heard anyone pick up on that for the second quarter forecast. We were forecasting to be already at 2 billion dollars of operating profit, which is the same amount that we were at the second quarter of 19. It's quite a statement in terms of how the recovery is going.
Speaker 4: and you consider that at a much higher fuel price, it's at much higher labor rates, and it's also with the system not restored. So I think all of that gives you continued opportunities. We're looking to take the non-fuel chasm down in the back half of the year, which is going to be a meaningful tailwind for us. We don't see revenue declines in terms of demand strength. I know everyone-
Speaker 12: Thank you.
Speaker 6: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Andrew Tedora from Bank of America. Your line is live.
Speaker 7: Hi, good morning everyone. So the 11 billion dollar traffic liability pretty staggering number here versus the 6 to 7Billion that you had in 2019. I assume it's this number that gives you a lot of the confidence in your outlook. But I guess my question is just curious if any of the dynamics
Speaker 7: within the ATL have changed today versus a pre-pandemic where maybe a lower percentage gets translated into revenues because of no change views or something else. Just just curious there.
Speaker 4: Yeah, let me a few things 1 and think the level of it is what gives us confidence in the 2nd quarter and the 2nd quarter revenue and revenue through this summer. The strength that we're seeing both internationally and domestic. You get the benefit of the people more comfortable. Booking longer elongation of the curve, you certainly have bears.
Speaker 4: And we've seen the behavior within that to be very consistent in regards to how it's been performing. So, yes, it's a step up, but I think it's a sign of strength. And in regards to the customers feeling comfortable with the policies and changes that we've made.
Speaker 7: Thanks, and just as a follow up, Ed, we spoke about kind of, I know you've been tweaking down capacity a little bit, but what have you done from an operational perspective to minimize the risk of having the disruptions that you saw during last year's summer peak? Thanks. Sometimes the teams have...
Speaker 4: Well, we spent a lot of time in regards to just ensuring that we have the right resources in the right places with the right level of training. So a lot of effort has gone into this over the past month after month after month across the operating teams. to you guys that youprate Seattle is created that you Widow k combining from.
Speaker 4: the crew activity and ensuring that we're aligned network to crewing all the way down into tech operations in regards to the Staffing that we have in place as it relates to line maintenance They're continuing to focus on turnaround time regarding aircraft out of service and the associated items So we continue to be you know, ensuring that we're putting those types of capabilities
Speaker 4: buffers in place for the readiness and then the proactive actions that we talked about with adjusting June capacity based on Glenn mentioned it the resiliency and ability to recover from storms. We know that they will happen in the summer and we're targeting that around areas that we want to ensure that we have deeper resilience around and the teams are focused on that. If I could add to Dan's comments, one major thing in addition.
Speaker 5: is that our team has another year under their belt of experience. We have a very young team out there and leaders as well as frontline employees. And getting through another year gives you a lot more confidence in terms of what we're seeing. Secondly, we are pretty much through the hiring. We've been, you know.
Speaker 4: getting out and hiring people, we can take the people that have been doing the training and put them back in the business because our employees train and we have some of our very best employees that do the training. So getting them back focused into the business for the summer will also be a very nice benefit as we go through this. But there's a there's a list of 50 things that we're doing that we
Speaker 4: We review in great detail and we're confident it's going to be a very, very strong operational summer for Delta customers.
Speaker 7: That's great. Thank you all. Thank you. Your next question is coming from Brandon Oglinski from Barclays. Your line is live. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking the question. Glenn, I'm going to ask kind of a nerdy one, but your load factor did seem to step down sequentially in the first quarter.
Speaker 5: Did that have an impact from this actualization factor that you're talking about? I guess can you expand on how you control for that in the future with your RM system? Do we even get to backwardation on yields or no?
Speaker 5: I think really there's two things I talk about in that realm. One, I just want to mention, even though it wasn't in the question, was there's two things we need to do better next year. One is harness the demand set better that is the new normal post-pandemic world. For more information on COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines, visit our website www.covid19.com
Speaker 5: And I think we're getting that real time now, and we'll make those adjustments. And so materialization rate is relatively easy to combat because it just relates to your overbooking model. So if you were at 103% on average and you have two extra points, you just go to 105 in terms of what your ability to take is. There's a little bit of risk in that. And so we probably...
Speaker 5: careful on getting that.
Speaker 5: real time but
Speaker 5: The other piece is doing the whole network over better next year, right, is that we saw travel patterns evolve that are very different than pre-pandemic and where people are flying and so as we get to one of the things that gives us real confidence about improving next year over this year is when we look at what we did in January .
Speaker 5: being able to do that better in terms of where we have our capacity placed. And that's the part I think I'm really excited about is we now have the real post-pandemic travel patterns which are very different in terms of cities that people fly to and places they want to go.
Speaker 5: You take New York to Florida, which has never been bigger There's a reason why right as people have decided that they can live in Florida and work in New York And those are the things that we're now incorporating into our analysis as we move forward and things I think we're really excited about in the future
Speaker 5: Appreciate that, Glenn. And then very quickly, you know, related to the ATL being close to $11 billion and your free cash flow guidance for $2 billion this year, does that guidance incorporate the payment to the pilots? And how do we think about free cash as the year progresses now? Free cash flow, as we mentioned...
Speaker 4: in December and on first quarter, the one-time ratification payment that was made was not the special item you see at this quarter, it's not in the free cash flow. And certainly going back to the ATL, the cash performance in total as it relates to
Speaker 4: The operating cash and where we are in free cash flow, you know, gives us confidence in being greater than $2 billion for the year. All right, thank you, Dan. First quarter and through the half.
Speaker 6: Thank you. Thank you. Your next question is coming from Helen Becker from TD Cohen. Your line is live. Thanks very much, operator. Hi, everybody, and thank you very much for the time. Ed, you talked about something I had a question about actually, and that was productivity improvements.
Speaker 13: which you mentioned that so many people have a year or more's worth of experience. Is there any way you or Dan can put any numbers around that and just say it's like X percent of chasm improvement or cost improvement?
Speaker 4: When you, when there's a lot of different benchmarks you'll use, and you certainly look at this at every operating group and. And things have changed, you know, we, we use 2019 as a benchmark as a way marker, but I don't know that that's always. Your operations changed how the teams execute has changed, but it's an anchoring point that we use.
Speaker 4: and we look at our operating groups, each of those by where they were, what's changed, how are they tracking to those levels. We certainly have by group metrics and we know where we're at. But when you look at the total, when you bring it back up and you think about what's in our run rate, take out the rebuild component, but just around efficiency.
Speaker 4: There's two to three points, four points of opportunity in there as it relates to us getting better as we move forward through the back half of the year into next year. And those are all going to move at different paces in regards to it. The one that's going to be, for instance, probably the slowest here will be around regionals and the regional flying that we do. You know, where elevated levels were underutilized by.
Speaker 14: of dollars a year.
Speaker 14: Obviously, a lot of that's going to dissipate now that we get into a more normalized pattern. We're going to get the employees, not just at the cost of that training, but the instructors who are doing the training back into the operation and providing that leadership. The other thing is that, as Glenn mentioned, the network is continuing to evolve. What we've seen is that the
Speaker 14: staffing has been a bit lumpy, you know, during this this recovery from the pandemic and getting your employees and your shifts to the schedule and understanding what the schedule looks like. There's a lot of opportunity in there at the airport level and efficiency across the board. So I think efficiency is certainly a big part of the reason why we expect in the second.
Speaker 13: you know, being in New York, the FAA asked you to cut capacity by 10% this summer. So that adds to your inability to be back to where you really want to be. Does that continue into the fourth quarter and then...
Speaker 13: Have you talked to them about getting more, you know, more experienced controllers in the region A, B, and B, is this something we need to look forward to every single summer? I mean, don't they have to do their part too in terms of improving their infrastructure?
Speaker 14: Hello, hi, it's Peter Carter. Thanks for the question. Peter. So good, good to hear from you. So that that releases until. Uh, September 15, so it does not get into the 4th quarter. Um, but what I would say is that, um, it is. Hopefully going to be only something we would need to do.
Speaker 14: this summer because we are engaged in ongoing discussions with the FAA precisely on the topic of ensuring that they have the appropriate staffing for that New York. And frankly, it's beyond New York, but for
Speaker 14: our national air system. And I think the one thing you've probably seen from them in their granting this waiver is that they are acknowledging that they have an issue that they need to solve, which is really an important, I think, acknowledgement because it allows us.
Speaker 14: to work together to try to solve it, help them solve it together. So, you know, we're, it is the most efficient and safest air traffic control system in the world and we need to continue to invest in it.
Speaker 6: Thank you, Peter. Thanks, everybody. Thanks, Elaine. Now we'll go to our final analyst question. Thank you. Your final analyst is Sheila Kahuliglu from Jefferies. Your line is live.
Speaker 15: Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just to switch gears a little bit, maybe talking about the loyalty program, it continues to be pretty successful. Revenue is up 27% year over year in the quarter, and I know you've laid out 2024 targets, but generally, how are you thinking about growth runway from here?
Speaker 10: What levers are there to pull and how do you think about the correlation to the broader economy and the broader macro? And if there's any metrics you watch more carefully with that I Think there are two components of that one is the accounts enforced and that is of course related to our ability to bring new customers in and we have posted record acquisitions in the last Year, and we just had another
Speaker 5: In the month of March, it was a record monthly acquisition in the history of the cart. So I'd say we see real strength in the brand, and that's really what drives the acquisitions. People want to associate with Delta, and they want to associate with the SkyMiles program because it does supply great value to those customers. So put that in one side, and then put them the actual spend on the accounts in force, and that, I think, is more a fluctuation of the economy. We see that continuing to be strong as we sit here today.
Speaker 5: But that's the piece I think that could shift up or down a little bit depending on how the economy rolls out in the second half of the year. But what we're counting on is that being more than offset by our new acquisitions, accounts and force, and really more and more premium customers. And I think that's an exciting thing that we'll talk about in June . So stay tuned on details on that. We'll give you some more details on how we see that evolving.
Speaker 10: That will wrap up the analyst portion of the call. I'll now turn it over to Trevor Banster from our Corporate Communications Department to start the media questions. Thank you, Julie. And just to remind everyone, we've got time for one question and one follow-up each, and we'll get to as many as we can in the time remaining. Matthew, if you could please reiterate for the members of the media the instructions for joining the question queue.
Speaker 6: Certainly. At this time we'll be conducting the media question and answer session. Once again, if you have any questions or comments, please press star one on your phone at this time. We do ask that while posing your question, please pick up your handset if you're listening on speakerphone to provide optimum sound quality. Once again, if you have any questions or comments, please press star one on your phone.
Speaker 11: Hi, thanks so much.
Speaker 11: I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the recent near-miss or safety incidents that we've been seeing. You know, has Delta, have you looked at your own data? Have you noticed any, anything concerning or any kinds of trends or anything that would suggest if there's sort of a cause behind some of these incidents?
Speaker 5: Hi, Elliot said we talked about this several weeks ago around the time of the summit that the, the convened and. We thought was a was a very positive step to bring all the stakeholders together to talk about. What we're seeing and what we can do to continue to improve upon the very best safety.
Speaker 5: aviation system in the world. Yeah there's there's no question that we've had we've had some additional incidents than you would see that are a bit out of the norm in terms of timing. Fortunately the safety systems caught those incidents but we've got to be vigilant at all times and continue to...
Speaker 5: find ways to get better in that environment. So nothing that gives us pause. It is by far the safest form of travel period of any form of travel. But we want to make certain the stakeholders are all focused as this industry works through the infrastructure rebuild that FAA is seeing as well as the airlines are seeing.
Speaker 2: And you mentioned sort of like the relative newness or an experience of the workforce as a factor in the operational issues. Do you think that that has played a role in kind of that uptick in safety incidents as well? There's no evidence that that is necessarily the case.
Speaker 4: Listen, we have the world's foremost safety management systems and risk mitigation focus in the aviation community. And we knew that we have younger people and so we get out ahead of that. We don't wait for something to happen. We are on the front end.
Speaker 5: of that with training and added procedures, added buffers, added focus in the operation. So no, I would not lay it necessarily at the hands of experience.
Speaker 5: and added procedures, added buffers, added focus in the operation. So no, I would not lay it necessarily at the hands of experience. Thank you.
Speaker 1: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Mary Schlenkenstein from Bloomberg News. Your line is live. Thank you. I want to take it one quick clarification and then I have a quick question. When you were talking about corporate recovery and you were saying you've recovered 85% of revenue, 75% of traffic in the second quarter, is that like total...
Speaker 1: business or first class seats? Are they buying up only to the top premium economy level? And if it's the the former, is that something that you expect to continue long term where these passengers are buying up into into your ultimate highest classes?
Speaker 5: They're buying all the way up to domestic first and Delta One on the long haul international. And this is a phenomenon that we've seen in making it more accessible. I think that's really been part of our long-term journey that we've been talking about for many years. It is something we wanted to achieve is to make those products more accessible to people. And I think we've seen success through the pandemic and coming out of the pandemic, we
Speaker 6: Thank you. Once again everyone, if you have any questions or comments, please press star, then one on your phone at this time.
Speaker 6: Your next question is coming from David Slotnick from TPG. Your line is live. Good morning everyone. Thank you for the question.
Speaker 10: You touched on this a little bit in the analyst portion, but I wondered if you could talk a bit about staffing levels, both on the flight deck, elsewhere throughout the operation, and really with your third-party vendors. Have you had any disruption, and do you expect any disruption because of your error?
Speaker 10: say with caterers or refuelers or anything like that.
Speaker 5: We said on the call that we're getting into our normal staffing ranges and the amount of churn and turnover we're seeing both on the third party support staff as well as the added staffing we've hired is starting to get in a pretty good place. So no, I don't.
Speaker 10: Again, there's always a one-off pocket where you have some unique pressure. But on balance, no, that's not a problem. Okay, thanks. And then you said that you're 75% booked for international travel this summer. Just with change, wave change fees and everything, what percent of that would you normally expect to see change their flights or maybe cancel and postpone for later?
Speaker 6: Thank you. That concludes today's conference. Thank you everyone for your participation today.
Speaker 6: Thank you, everyone, for your participation today.