Q1 2023 AT&T Inc Earnings Call

This approach establishes a long term growth trajectory that thoughtfully balances customer additions with profitable returns.

Now, let's turn to our fiber business.

Quarter after quarter, our teams proved that wherever we build fiber we win.

In the first quarter was no exception with 272000 AT&T fiber net adds this marks 13th straight quarters with more than 200000 net ads.

These net adds were a significant achievement with the number of household moves key growth metric for fiber sales decreasing nationwide.

As we noted at the end of last year, our fiber subscribers now outnumber non fiber and DSL subscribers.

We now have about $7 5 million AT&T fiber subscribers with fiber adoption and margin expansion driving consumer wireline revenue and EBITDA growth.

We believe that AT&T offers the best Wired Internet service available anywhere.

Elevated AT&T fiber experience.

Is providing a strong tailwind.

So overall across both <unk> and fiber I'm very happy with the high quality subscriber adds we achieved in the quarter.

These long term customer relationships provide a great and profitable revenue stream now and into the future.

Even in the midst of increased macroeconomic uncertainty we're.

Executing more sharply inefficiently after repositioning our operations around our connectivity strengths.

We remain on track to achieve our $6 billion plus cost savings run rate target by the end of the year if not sooner.

As we mentioned before the benefits from these efforts are expected to increasingly fall to the bottom line.

While we've largely delivered what we set out to accomplish three years ago.

Our journey is only raised our confidence that we can continue to evolve and improve.

Fact, we.

We believe we can further accelerate cost takeouts as we progressed through the year.

Part of this entails transforming our network as we ultimately replace our copper services footprint with best in class fiber connectivity and where it makes sense for customers.

Placement products built on our wireless network.

Think about a cost structure, that's no longer anchored the legacy network technologies and software stacks.

For example, in addition to all of fibers enhanced resiliency.

Purion transport characteristics, we're already seeing that fiber uses less energy cost less to maintain and requires fewer service dispatches.

And as we reduce our copper services footprint and related legacy infrastructure, we expect to consistently improve our margins grow EBITDA and ultimately improve our capital efficiency.

Another contributing element relies on unlocking new capabilities that make it easier to collaborate and get work done by leaning into our digital transformation.

We're seeing this already come to life through early trials and our collaboration with Nvidia, where we're testing the use of artificial intelligence to improve fleet dispatches. So our field technicians can better serve customers.

Separately, we're using AI to match customers with the right customer care support path, resulting in more effective issue resolution.

We think this is only the tip of the spear of what's possible.

Now, let's turn to our final priority, which centers on how we're allocating capital.

We continue to invest in our fiber and fiber networks at record levels in order to deliver long term sustainable earnings growth.

Our goal is to build a network that not only meets today's demands, but will serve the needs of our customers for decades to come.

This is at the core of what we do and who we are as a company. It's also why we continue to be one of America's largest capital investors.

We're investing in our connectivity infrastructure and using our team's proven expertise to not only maintain our network advantages but to advance them.

And we're doing this while moving forward on our commitment to provide more Americans with access to reliable high speed broadband.

We plan to actively pursue bead funding to support the transition of our wireline footprint and expect to be a significant participant in public private partnerships.

And while we're clearly committed to investing in our networks. We also remain focused on the strengthening of our balance sheet and reducing our net debt.

We expect to increase cash generation over time.

Which will allow us to continue delivering an attractive dividend with improving credit quality.

And by executing on the simplified capital allocation framework, we expect to improve our financial flexibility in the long run.

This will provide us with the opportunity to take additional actions such as investing to accelerate our business growth.

Generation and incremental values and returns for our shareholders.

Now before I wrap up.

I'd like to quickly touch on some developments, we're seeing in the macroeconomic environment.

We started the year with the expectation that we'd be operating against a less predictable macro backdrop.

This belief has proven true thus far.

And what we're seeing is in line with the expectations, we built into our guidance in January including a moderation of growth for wireless services.

We expected to transition back to more historical cost of debt.

That is certainly underway.

With the added dose of tighter credit availability to some segments of the economy.

I'm clearly not breaking any ground with these observations.

This is why we have been focused on reducing our leverage and optimizing our use of capital over the last few years.

As the economy adjusts to a likely period of tighter capital availability and a higher interest rates.

I take comfort in the state of our business for two reasons.

The first is the <unk>.

Heavy lifting we did to strengthen our balance sheet over the last several years.

We've reduced our debt.

The advantage of the prior low interest rate environment on our remaining debt and managed our debt towers for the next several years.

As a result more than 95% of our debt is now fixed and the average rate of four 1%.

The second is the repositioning of our business to focus on exclusively communication services, particularly <unk> and fiber.

As the last few years have demonstrated the solutions, we provide are more critical than ever before and we only expect the demand for purpose built best in class Internet access to grow.

The resiliency of the services, we provide coupled with our improved financial flexibility provide us with the right tool set to navigate the economic environment.

We remain on track to deliver the 2023 financial and operating commitments, we made to our shareholders at the start of the year.

However, should the need arise we feel comfortable using the tools, we have at our disposal to align our actions with a more challenging economic backdrop, whether that's accelerating cost transformation actions being more deliberate with our capital spend or increasing our liquidity.

To conclude my remarks, I'd simply reemphasize that I'm proud of how our team started the year.

Last quarter, I said that our approach and strategy for 2023 was to do it again in.

In the first quarter of the year our teams have done just that.

With that I'll turn it over to Pascal Pascal.

Thank you John and good morning, everyone. As you know we typically provide a brief review of our subscriber trends at this point in our prepared remarks, but today I'd like to zoom out and connect the dots on the progress we've made so far on a multiyear journey to reposition our core operations.

Our goal has been to take advantage of the expected increased demand for wireless broadband connectivity by adding customers the right way with a focus on long term value. We recognize that in order to do that we had to increase our investment in the business to enhance our customer value proposition and make more memorable and lasting.

<unk> with our customers we understood that these investments would have a short term impact on wireless aqua profits, but overtime with durable customer relationships and deliver attractive returns.

Speaker 1: We, our large business unit, were growing subscribers and taking share. We also continue to see very healthy our growth. This translates to growth in wireless service revenues and EBITDA while improving margins. We've grown both revenues in EBITDA year-over-year for four consecutive quarters and this past quarter was the best first quarter for mobility EBITDA in the company's history. In Consumer Wildlife, we've invested to increase our fiber footprint to provide customers with best-in-class access technology. Over the course of the past three years, we added about six million fiber locations that we can now serve. By doing this, we successfully transformed a business that was incentive to climb into a growth business with fiber growth outpacing the legacy of our line declines. The consistency of our results across 5G and fiber provides us with confidence that our go-to-market approach.

Speaker 1: from a water line, we're partially set by an expected decline in business water line.

Speaker 1: Adjusted EPS was 60 cents compared to 63 cents in the year ago quarter. In the quarter there were about 6 cents of our Gated EPS headwinds from higher pension, lower direct TV, equity income, and higher effect tax rate.

Speaker 1: This was partially upset by strong growth and mobility.

Speaker 1: Cash from operating activities came in at 6.7 billion versus 7.6 billion last year. This was largely due to the timing of working capital, which includes lower securitization. As a reminder, the first quarter is typically the high water mark for device payments, and we expect payments to progressively get lower as we make our way through the balance of the year.

Speaker 1: Capital investments were 6.4 billion as we continue to make historically high levels of investment to 5G and fiber.

Speaker 1: Free cash flow for the quarter was a billion dollars. This was consistent with our expectation and accounts for several seasonal and anticipated working capital impacts. We remain confident in our full year outlook for free cash flow of 16 billion or better. This expectation is largely due to the timing of capital investments, device payments, adequate taxes, clear toll, issue reduction, internal Development, high-quality elections,

Speaker 1: instead of compensation which all peaked in the first quarter. Now let's look at our mobility operating machine on slide 7.

Speaker 1: Before we get started, we disclosed early March that we modified our business unit reporting and no longer record prior service credits to our individual business units.

Speaker 1: Prior period business unit results have been recast for this change. There is no impact to consolidate operating income as price service credit continued to be recorded another income. Looking at our mobility results, revenues were up 2.5 percent and service revenues were up 5.2 percent.

Speaker 1: Driven by subscriber, growth and hierarchy. Mobility EBITDA with up 621 million or 8% for the quarter. Driven by growth and subscribers, service ref, and the ASUS 3G network shutdown call cost burst is the first quarter of 2022.

Speaker 1: Mobility post paid phone RPRU was $55.05, up $1.05 or nearly 2% year over year. RPRU grew up remains largely driven by higher RPRU on legacy plans from last year's pricing actions. A continued mix shift to higher value rate plan.

Speaker 1: and a continued improvement in consumer international rolling trends.

Speaker 1: Postpaid phone charge remains low at 0.81% for the quarter.

Speaker 1: We believe our team's ongoing success can be largely attributed to the consistent investment we've made to build a fast and reliable 5G network and the access we're taking to ensure our customers feel valued and appreciated.

Speaker 1: In prepaid, we had 40,000 phone net additions. Our total prepaid term was below 3%.

Speaker 1: Primarily driven by loyalty from cricket customers who stayed with us as a result of our value and reliability.

Speaker 1: Overall, I'm really pleased that the team achieved solid subscriber growth even against a moderation in industry demand.

Speaker 1: I'd like to also quickly acknowledge the strong results posted by our team in Mexico.

Speaker 1: We're very pleased with the performance of our Mexico Wireless Operations, which boasted strong revenue and steady profit growth thanks to improved operational execution and scale. Now let's move to consumer and business wildlife results, which are on slide 8.

Speaker 1: Let's start with Consumer Wireline, where our growth was led by our investment in fiber, which is consistently yielding strong returns.

Speaker 1: We added 272,000 fiber customers in the quarter. This speaks to the quality of the service we're providing and continued demand for the best Internet technology available today.

Speaker 1: With our fiber subscribers now outnumbering our non-fiber subscribers, the increasing mixed shift from legacy products to fiber continues to drive strong broadband results.

Speaker 1: Broadband Repu's group by more than 7% year-over-year, including accelerated year-over-year, fiber-revenue growth of more than 30%.

Speaker 1: Fiber Arpoo was $65.92 up more than a dollar sequentially with Arpoo for new Fiber customers at about $70.

Speaker 1: Customers are increasingly choosing to take advantage of the benefits offered by faster speed tiers which is also supporting ARPU grow.

Speaker 1: Consumer waterline need that I grew 3.2% for the quarter due to growth in fiber revenues and transformation savings partially are set by higher storm costs on the west coast, which hurt growth by about...

Speaker 1: I need that I grew 3.2% for the quarter due to growth in fiber revenues and transformation savings partially are set by higher storm costs on the West Coast, which hurt growth by about 250 basis points in the quarter.

Speaker 1: Overall, we could not be more confident in the future of our consumer wireline business with fiber well-positioned to lead our growth in the decade ahead.

Speaker 1: Turning the business wire line, EBITDA was down $230 million year over year, which was in line with our expectations. This was partially driven by about $50 million in year over year, comparability factors, including favorable compensation justice from the first quarter of last year.

Speaker 1: Our rationalization process and business wireline also continues as we remain focused on the opportunities that 5G and fiber expansion creating, particularly in the small and mid-sized business category.

Speaker 1: Our business solutions wireless service revenue school nearly 7% despite a moderation in industry growth as we continue growth faster than our peers.

Speaker 1: One driver of this group continues to be first that where wireless connections grew by about 300,000 sequentially about 40% of which are post paid phones.

Speaker 1: Ultimately, we're making progress on transforming our business wireline operations. And when we normalize out for one time comparison items in the quarter, we still see the same underlying trends in continued to expect for-year results aligned to what we guided in January .

Speaker 1: Now to wrap up my comments, I'll restate that we embedded expectations for a comparatively slow macro backdrop in our full year outlook and therefore remain on track to deliver on our full year guidance. We will continue to moderate the economy closely and if we find ourselves operating in a more challenging macro environment than we anticipated, there are lovers to pull.

Speaker 1: Ultimately, we feel like we have found the right formula to deliver sustainable results with profitable 5G and Fibre subscriber gains.

Speaker 1: We demonstrated this by growing consolidated EBITDAO, improving our prudence and growing broadband and wireless service revenues with consistently low post-paid phone turns, and we are confident that this formula will continue to work. A near that's our presentation. We're now ready for the Q&A.

Speaker 2: Thank you, Pascal. Operator, we're ready to take the first question. Of course, and ladies and gentlemen, if you do wish to ask a question, please press 1 and zero on your telephone keypad. You may withdraw your question at any time by repeating the 1 and zero command.

Speaker 2: Our first question today comes from the line of Phil Qsick with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2: I guess, thanks for the question. You know, let's start with free cash flow. Given the 2Q free cash flow guide down last year, what can you add to your comments already to get investors comfortable that we aren't walking into another one of those?

Speaker 3: Hey, hey Phil, thank you for the question.

Speaker 3: exactly as we anticipated. Remember, in my commentary on at the ERN when we gave guidance, we said that Q1 was going to be the low water more often free cash flow for several reasons. One, it's the highest quarter of the vice payments. Recall Q4, how they sailed.

Speaker 3: is the heaviest volume for the biases we pay for those in Q1. You saw our capital spend is elevated relative to the annual guidance that we gave. And Q1 is the quarter we paid center of comp. When you factor all those things then along with our expectations that we will continue to grow.

Speaker 3: EBITDA, we feel really good about delivering $16 billion or better.

Speaker 2: Maybe if I can follow up there and forgive me if this is a little amateur, but I was looking at the balance sheet as a June of 22 and net net today is $3 billion higher than it was nine months ago. Given all the things that are happening, I understand there are other uses of cash, but there is a point at which.

Speaker 2: The cash generation over and above the dividends starts to actually pay down the net and debt of the company.

Speaker 3: Thank you. We expect that doesn't decline this year and thereafter.

Speaker 4: That can be best done.

Speaker 5: Thanks very much.

Speaker 2: Operator, next question please. Our next question comes from the line of Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley . Please go ahead.

Speaker 6: Great, thank you very much. Good morning. I wonder if you could just give us a little bit more color on the fiber. How is the build program going? I think I saw about 600,000 passings in the or new locations on the consumer site, but just update us on that 2 to 2.5 million build program. And also what you're seeing in terms of cohort penetration and take rates, you did site the...

Speaker 6: lower move activity, but how the 12-month, 24-month penetration rates are going. Then any updates on timing or structure around gigapower will be great. Thank you. 30 seconds. 30 seconds.

Speaker 7: no concerns whatsoever about ability to execute the build.

Speaker 7: about ability to execute the build supply chain spine.

Speaker 7: and resource and capabilities within the vendor communities all good.

Speaker 7: resources and capabilities within the vendor communities all good. Teams are executing well.

Speaker 7: I don't think I have any different commentary of yeah there's been a little bit of inflationary pressure in some places.

Speaker 7: By far the way, it's all manageable. It's nothing that blows the business case. In fact,

Speaker 7: When you offset the cost per living unit increases against what is actually turning out to be faster penetration and higher our booth and what we had in the I would call the fundamental business case when we started this process it's you know well offsets and anything we have to worry about in terms of first cost.

Speaker 7: So I would tell you from a perspective of do we feel very comfortable with what we've told you about our 30 million commitment and where we're going with that

Speaker 7: That's not the thing that's taking my time or keeping me up at night.

Speaker 7: where we are in terms of our execution. You know, I would probably take my hat off to a couple individuals in the company that have been working very hard in this area. I would tell you relative to what we spend and how we're going about doing it, I think we're doing a much better job of penetrating our base faster than we are.

Speaker 7: are and bring cash flow forward that has an outsized impact on the NPV at the case and the ultimate payback and we're seeing that happen.

Speaker 7: Now I would tell you look we're building in places that are fiber hungry and so I think our effectiveness is indicative of the success of the market and the receptiveness of the market. I don't know if you get three years out on the build if it stays that way we'll have to continue to watch that but I think the tactics and the techniques.

Speaker 7: that we've developed collectively as a team between how we promote the brand, what our operations folks do to raise awareness.

Speaker 7: how we capture those customers, the way we're marketing to them, the effectiveness of which we're marketing to them. I really like what we're seeing that I think as we continue in this path, we're on the learning curve.

Speaker 7: And we're going to get better because we're on that learning curve and we're getting scale at what we're doing and that's all goodness.

Speaker 7: on the gig of power side.

Speaker 7: We are wearing good shape. We're very close to closing on the transaction. You should expect that.

Speaker 7: were very close to closing on the transaction. You should expect that imminently.

Speaker 7: We're trying to do it the right way and feel very comfortable. We're going to get it down the right way I will also tell you we have our first even though the transaction hasn't closed We have our first live customer up in one of our markets, you know, so we are In plays with all the infrastructure that we need to be able to sail and support Customers through our channels and I

Speaker 7: I want to stress, you know, we are the first seller of product on that infrastructure and it's not an insignificant accomplishment for us to be able to have everything through the processes of our activating our distribution channels and out of region markets as they can talk to customers and sell and support the product and service and we can drive the kind of penetration that we want to drive in that infrastructure.

Speaker 7: So feel really good about the progress there and

Speaker 7: I will just tell you how to totally as I work around.

Speaker 7: The organization felt very strongly about our competency and our ability to go and start doing this.

Speaker 7: I like the energy I see in the teams that are involved in it who feel probably even more confident than I do about it and they have a lot of.

Speaker 6: A lot of motivation to do well there and I think that's going to serve as well as we move forward. Great. And just one last thing on fixed wireless. You're getting a lot of more CBAN spectrum of your 3.45 coming on. How are you thinking now about for the copper catch and then potentially out of region doing more in fixed wireless to address the desire for converged bundles?

Speaker 7: Yeah, nothing's changed in my commentary here Simon. We we're out in the market today We have a consumer product that's there that we've recently brought into play

Speaker 7: We are in the process of scaling it so that we make sure that we do it the right way.

Speaker 7: And we are going to use it where we think we can offer a customer a better set of services than what they currently have.

Speaker 7: especially when we have an opportunity to go and use it to hold as we're going to build fiber over the next couple of years and come in behind it.

Speaker 7: where we have that network capacity to your point. We are adding spectrum and we have places where we have foul capacity and it's a smart play for us to do that to keep a customer in the family. Also uses an opportunity in some cases to cross sell and add wireless into the portfolio as we do that.

Speaker 7: And we will run that play in consumer where it makes sense to run that. And we're seeing good feedback from our customers that we've put out the product with in the consumer space.

Speaker 7: We are seeing substantial improvements in their service levels.

Speaker 7: That's a good thing and we feel that that's the right way to kind of target and use the product on the other side of the equation. As I've said many times before, this product is incredibly well suited to parts of the business segment.

Speaker 7: It's not only well suited in the near term, but it can be a long-term viable product given the characteristics of how businesses use data depending on the type of segment you're serving. And we've had really good success in business.

Speaker 7: deploying the product. We will continue to deploy it and feel really good about it in that regard that when we match the product, the right user profile, the right segment profile, it can be a very, very viable opportunity for a sustainable and effective product.

Speaker 7: And we're seeing that in fact play out in the market right now. Great. Thanks so far.

Speaker 1: Thanks very much Simon operator if you can move to the next question. The next question goes from the line of John Hudlick with UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2: Great, thank you. Maybe a question similar to Phil's first question on pre-cassel, but related to evid dye. You guys did 3.9% growth this quarter against 3% guys, but you've got the easy comps on the wire on the side. So anything you can tell us about the color you have or the...

Speaker 2: sort of confidence you have it's been hitting that 3% number you also called out Some some storm cost in California and any other sort of one-timers You know inside of these numbers that can do this more cognitive and then lastly on the cost side You guys have been aggressive taking out taking out headcount and John you mentioned potentially accelerating the headcount

Speaker 2: or the cost reduction initiative. So any additional color there is there more headcount to go. How far through the 6 billion are you and should we see that translate the better margin?

Speaker 3: Here is the way I would characterize the court. It was a really solid 3, nearly 4% growth. There were 3G shutdown in the prior year, but there were also some items that went the other way. So when I pierced through all of that all the one-time items, this is...

Speaker 3: Right in line with the expectations we set at the beginning of the year, 3% or better growth. So, John .

Speaker 7: You know, West Coast, I think, is pretty well publicized and what went on out there relative to the rains and we still have a large, I'll call it legacy footprint that ultimately we're spending a lot of time and energy and working our way out of, and do you see what happens still when...

Speaker 7: You get a lot of wetness on copper, it just doesn't work well. And I think this is one of the things that gives us the high degree of confidence. We have opportunities for additional cost takeout in this business, as we reposition 5G and fiber that cost structure we still carry. And I'm really pleased we made some changes about a year ago.

Speaker 7: and how we organize within the business and how we focus on our operating cost structure that is putting the right kind of exposure on how we execute around that cost migration. So this is partly an answer to your question of what was unusual and also what we expect to do moving forward beyond the six billion.

Speaker 7: We will now start to see some momentum build in that regard as we begin to shutter legacy costs in the business and I think we're making the steps that need to be made to be able to do that on a geography basis as opposed to, you know, we don't need to see the last customer disappear.

Speaker 7: before costs start to come out of the business. And so we have much better instrumentation.

Speaker 7: I think we're building the muscles around how to do this. It's not easy stuff. I will admit to that I would I wish you know we didn't have to spend as much time at energy on it But we are and I think we're getting it into a place that I've watched this business for years that the flywheel will start to turn and we'll get the

Speaker 7: the benefits out of it. And I feel really good about that. And I think that's when I talk about moving beyond the six billion. One of it is it's the fundamental restructuring of the business and getting to the back side of that. You may have noticed as well to show you how serious we are about this and how aggressively we're working it. We made a large filing that's public in California.

Speaker 7: about restructuring the regulatory construct in California. That proceeding will take place over the course of the next year, and it's one that we've been working really hard with policymakers out there to do it the right way, make sure that we step up to serving customers in a way that...

Speaker 7: Accomplishes public policy objectives while at the same time positions the business well for a sustainable cost structure and incentive investment in the state moving forward. And on confident that we can move through that process.

Speaker 7: The last thing I'll just comment on in the first quarter, you probably saw that the weather patterns broadly across the United States were pretty challenging. And so while they were most pronounced on the West Coast, we were chasing a lot of issues broadly with ice and a variety of power dynamics that were moving on.

Speaker 7: And I would say just generally speaking, it was not a friendly quarter to operating costs, just to deal with the things that we need to deal with to make sure the network keeps running and I think we came through it in pretty good shape relative to our commitments. And I think that's one of the things that we believe will be in good shape from a cash production perspective as we move through the year. Got it. Thanks, guys. Thanks, guys. Thanks, guys.

Speaker 2: Thanks very much, John . Operator, we move to the next question. And our next question comes from the line of Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Thanks, too. The first one is actually a quick follow-up to John's question and the second one is a wireless. So the follow-up is...

Speaker 8: which regardless of your head count reductions, typically there are costs associated with your workforce, whether it's severance or other separation costs. I don't think you're adding that back to your adjusted financial. So I'm just curious if you could potentially size what the impact of those costs have been. And then on wireless, as you noted, you're expecting this normalization of wireless seconds.

Speaker 8: your anniversary of the last time you took some price. I'm curious how you're thinking about pricing power Thank you.

Speaker 3: Brad, on the first part of your question, the thing to keep in mind is as it relates to Q1, a lot of the head count reduction we saw in Q1 was accrued for as of the end of the year, so we're in the prior year numbers, so really didn't impact Q1 materially.

Speaker 3: By and large, look, this is a program we've been on for the last several years. And the March will, we expected to continue and it's one that in the normal course will encourage severs on those, but it's all pretty manageable within the context of this company.

Speaker 7: What I would tell you on the go-to-market side is there really hasn't been any change at all. In fact, I think the headline is

Speaker 7: We are doing what we've been doing. And we're going after customers that we think are profitable customers. And we're doing it the same way. And some of that, it's just a matter of.

Speaker 7: I think the variable piece of it is when you're doing subsidy on a customer by customer basis, there's a course adjustment and that so as you see volumes come down, certain equipment costs and the like are going to resize themselves to those volumes.

Speaker 7: But when you start thinking about how we're promoting in the market, I won't say that there's going to be any substantial changes in anything that you see on distribution channel costs or go to market costs. It would be anything different than the variable cost of moving from a volume of 700,000 that adds to 400,000 that adds up my flow through things.

Speaker 7: pretty effective job of that. If there's something I would ask you not to lose is...

Speaker 7: You know, we're coming off the most profitable quarter most lucrative even a generation in our wireless business in its history and it's got the goodness of low-churn higher-r, poor and customer growth and You know that that equation is there

Speaker 7: And we're managing it deliberately and you don't just pull one lever to make that happen. There's all kinds of things that have to come together in the recipe. You know, one of which is where you have opportunities to move customers up and continue them. Or you have opportunities where you may be at a price differently to market. You use those levers and we'll continue to do that as we move through the year. And I think our confidence in doing that.

Speaker 7: is indicative of the guidance that we've given you as we move through it. We dynamically watch credit in the market. That's algorithmic in many instances. We do things as we go through the year. We're looking at a variety of different things and a variety of different segments. We adjust. That's not new to this moment in time. That's something we...

Speaker 7: certain offers in certain places, yes, and have we done that? And is that just a normal course of business, yes, to that as well?

Speaker 1: Thank you. Thanks very much, operator. We can move to the next question. And our next question comes from the line of Michael Rollins with City. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9: Thanks and good morning. Just curious if you could unpack a little bit more of the slowdown in wireless post-paid phone performance in terms of the industry impact versus what you're seeing in the share of gross ads. And within that context, if you could provide some color on the activity levels that you're seeing between the...

Speaker 7: same vehicles you use to sense what's going on in the market and determine. I would tell you that

Speaker 7: My conclusion right now is we're seeing what I will call proportional dynamics going on in the market. I think status quo is the way I would characterize it as things kind of roll out here. I wouldn't, you know, I'll be surprised if it's dramatically different than ratios that we've seen.

Speaker 7: from previous quarters right now, which I feel pretty good about, frankly, given our discipline around how we've been going after the right kind of customers. I think the value proposition is still strong.

Speaker 7: I would tell you that on the customer base side, we've seen probably...

Speaker 7: Places in both segments where consumer at the lower end of the market are probably making the kind of decisions that people make when money's a little bit tighter. There may be extending the use of their device a little bit longer. It's not an issue of them not wanting the service. They're just making a decision to.

Speaker 7: to stick with their current hands at a little bit longer and maybe pushing that discretionary decision to move out so we've seen a little bit of a drop off relative to some of the traditional upgrade rates and the shopping rates associated with that. And then I would tell you in business, it's probably a combination of things going on. One is as we've told you, going through the COVID period, there was better than projected growth. I think and we have been saying all one that some of that was being driven by.

Speaker 7: COVID itself, businesses that needed solutions to deal with the change in their operations, and that could have been how they were dealing with things in a more remote fashion, or it could have been what they were doing with their employees to equip them to work outside of the office, as people have been coming back into work and as economy has been normalizing.

Speaker 7: Some of those products and services have reached their point of you know use that they no longer need them and there's there's a little bit of that going on where people are making their businesses more efficient and trimming and you know the wireless businesses of course correlated headcount and as some businesses have done some things to

Speaker 7: trend their employee ranks. You see that flowing through on handsets and data cards and things like that. It's again nothing that's out of the pattern of what we expected in terms of overall growth in the industry.

Speaker 7: We still have very healthy business services growth. We feel very comfortable about our share.

Speaker 7: We shared with you in the opening remarks that were penetrating in segments like in the public safety area better than the market in total and You know all considered that's pretty consistent with what we expected this year

Speaker 3: Hey, Mike, one other point is to underscore when we look at some of the key measures like porting ratios, our level of churn, those would all suggest as John said, we are doing just fond relatives to the overall population of growth that is out there in the industry. So...

Speaker 5: the next caller.

Speaker 10: And our next question comes from the line of David Barden with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2: Hey guys, thanks so much for taking the questions. I guess two if I could. The first one, Pascal, thank you for sharing the supplemental free cash flow walk to the EJCED EBITDA number. I think that one of the things that stands out there is the negative 2.7 billion working capital. And if I wanted to look.

Speaker 8: model and understand and see. So if you could be as granular as possible about explaining how that changes over the course of the year, it would be super helpful. And then, John , if I could ask you a question, something material that's changed over the course of this quarter is that DISH has kind of become a distressed security, both in the equity and in the bond markets....

Speaker 2: And I think that my question is, has that changed your calculus about the potential for a DTV dish combination? And or is that a potential opportunity for new spectrum acquisition if that were to come about or is new spectrum not really a priority for your capital allocation? I'd love to hear your thoughts on how that evolution.

Speaker 3: is impacting your thinking. Thank you. Hey Dave, here's what I would point you to.

Speaker 3: within the first quarter, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, there is

Speaker 3: we are at the high watermark of our device payment. And it's the only quarter that has our annual incentive computation. Those two things coupled with our elevated CapEx relative to our full year guide is the annual incentive computation. And then we have our

Speaker 3: hurt Q1 to the tune of $3 to $4 billion, and we expect that to turn during the course of the year just mechanically. It really isn't much harder than that. Like, based upon our spend, what we expect to spend in those categories, those should turn mechanically. So we feel really good about being able to deliver $16 or better.

Speaker 7: Dave, on your commentary on DSH, I don't want to stipulate necessarily to your characterization. I'm sure Charlie probably doesn't stipulate to him.

Speaker 7: First of all, I've never really commented on my point of view of what the calculus is in a combination of direct EV and dish, and I don't expect to do that today. It's just not something we typically speculate on. I think Charlie's been the one that's largely had commentary on that. He's certainly entitled to do that.

Speaker 7: So you might be a better person to ask, given the circumstances, he's probably far more intimate to his business than I am. Look, I think we step back all the time and ask ourselves what's the structure of the industry moving forward and what's going to occur. And I think I would just say the best way to maybe sometimes predict the future is look at the past, which is...

Speaker 7: when there's been valuable spectrum available through any form or fashion, whether it is a decision to do a combination of a business like what we did with LEAP, or whether it's doing things at auction that we think are responsible and appropriate. We think that we always want to make those investments with the sustainability of the business.

Speaker 7: if there were to be a spectrum reordering for whatever reason, either from auction or asset changes or whatever, would we understand it, want to understand if there's elements of that that are more effective than us putting capital into the network to build density and those types of things, we'll continue to evaluate that and make it more effective.

Speaker 7: appropriate decisions as we can moving forward. And it's a, you know, I'm not going to go into the details of how we think about what the scenarios are and what we can play out, but you can guess that given the amount of money that's involved in it and the importance to the business that we're constantly evaluating those things and determining.

Speaker 7: what scenarios might play out, what we might do, and what makes sense for the company. All right, appreciate it. Thank you so much, guys. Thanks for the question, Dave. Operator, we can move to the next question. And our next question comes from the line of Frank Low, then with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2: Great, thank you. Can you characterize the thresholds that you have to hit for first match to remain within the government guidelines to be the first question? The second was sort of excluding the 30 million homes you passed with Fiber and excluding California. What percentage of the rest of your footprint are you free from a regulatory perspective to

Speaker 7: you to hit for the first net over a certain time period. I'm just curious where you are on that relative to numbers subscribed that you have on the network today. Thanks. I just wanted to make sure I was answering your question in a straightforward fashion. I would tell you we are in really good shape. We're kind of through what I would call the first set of milestones that... all in the third place.

Speaker 7: frame the first seven years of the contract and we've ticked through all those responsibilities and obligations.

Speaker 7: as expected and there's nothing there that's a problem or anything lurking. In fact, broadly speaking, I think we've performed. Thank you for listening and your response was well.

Speaker 7: incredibly well. I don't want to speak on behalf of the first and authority but I think both parties feel like it's been a very productive public-private partnership.

Speaker 7: We continue to plan for what we can do in the future to extend it in other ways and do big things with it.

Speaker 7: So on the rest of the footprint, California is really kind of the outlier. We have freedom from our carrier of last resort obligations in virtually every other territory we operate in. How that gets done is a little bit different in each territory, but we have the latitude to do what we need to do.

Speaker 7: We've been doing a lot of work, and this is one reason we're at the filing stage in California on ensuring that we have the catch products to be able to support customers, and I'm really pleased with where we are. You obviously know what we can do with data services on the wireless network with fixed wireless. I talked about that just a few minutes ago as to...

Speaker 7: where we are in the market, our ability to be there. But we've also been putting in place a scaled wireline replacement for basic phone service that has all the same features and characteristics and meets the regulatory criteria of what has traditionally been copper-fed POTS services that we can support off the wireless network today.

Speaker 7: And those are two examples, there's more that are necessary, but two examples of replacement products that are better suited to play into our forward-looking architecture, which is a scaled wireless network than to serve off low-speed services like copper. And we feel like those are really, really good products, in fact, in many instances.

Speaker 7: offer a customer better benefits than what they get today. And I think regulators are interested as we are doing all the right things to move forward. They don't want power-consumptive copper out there, adding to greenhouse gases. They don't want people on technology that was built a hundred years ago that fails when it rains. And so I feel like we're in a very good place to be able to do what we need.

Speaker 11: specifically the iPhone was rolled out. Less so I think probably with tablets.

Speaker 11: You know, there's been a lot of buzz about augmented reality as kind of the next device. I'm just curious what your thoughts are on like what an operator, a wireless operators role will be. Have you had any initial discussions?

Speaker 7: on how those relationships would work with, you know, the number of device makers out there. Hi, Walt. The answer is, look, I think all wireless providers are going to be instrumental to making this happen. And I believe you've heard me talk about the reality is 5G becomes pervasive.

Speaker 7: and actually operates in the way 5G was intended to operate from a design perspective, which is you have the kind of ubiquity in the radio layer that's out there. You have actually the additional spectrum that gives you the right level of performance. This 5G standalone cores are perfected so that they work the way they were intended to work, which...

Speaker 7: You know, as with any new technology, that's been a little bit of a journey to get them to actually operate in the right way with the radio access layer, given the complexity of the radio access layer in the United States. Things like augmented reality are going to in fact become the opportunity of what are the new services that can come in place. And I don't think it's going to be unique to AT&T. I think our competitors are going to do the same thing.

Speaker 7: And as I talk about the reality of usage going up on these networks and why it's so important to have a fixed cost structure, these are the kind of things that I think are really, really important. Because if you're in a variable dynamic and all of a sudden the new device shows up and...

Speaker 7: becomes part of the family plan that drives another couple gigabits of usage and you're paying on a variable basis. That's not going to be a comfortable place to be when the realities of the next generation of applications come in 5G and I expect that's going to happen. I know you do a lot of homework.

Speaker 7: You know what the manufacturers are working on right now. We know what the manufacturers are working on right now. We know when they're likely to come about. They're going to come about when these networks are scaled. The networks are going to be scaled as we exit this year. I think you're going to start to see the new applications start to pop up as a result of that. I also just have a follow-on question on the structure of the industry. I mean, I have cables obviously.

Speaker 11: in many cases giving away free phones and then just reallocating revenue from the broadband business. And they've had success, I think in terms of subs, maybe not at high ARPU, but how do you see AT&T positioned long term in terms of also taking advantage of a bundled approach of offering broadband and mobile in more markets than where you just have your fiber.

Speaker 7: Well, we use the term durable wool for a reason, which is, you know, I don't want to just, I don't want to spend empty calories for something that 18 months from now or 24 months from now just looks like a boat acre.

Speaker 7: I'm trying to keep the business focused on doing the things that are the hard things but position the infrastructure for the next decade. And so I've been pretty consistent in my remarks, which is there are going to be places in our network.

Speaker 7: where we have underutilized capacity and I don't have fixed infrastructure and there's going to be segments.

Speaker 7: where that underutilized capacity can best be used where it's durable. I mentioned earlier in the call, there are many businesses that have usage profiles where I believe

Speaker 7: Fixed wireless bundled in with other wireless services is a very durable offer and it will be durable for a long period of time to come. There are certain consumer segments where that's durable, but it's not most consumer segments in my view.

Speaker 7: So we will continue to take advantage of that where I have confidence that the customer acquisition cost will be worth maintaining the relationship with the customer and will sustain itself. We were looking at our fiber in service life, for example, of what's going on right now.

Speaker 7: Our fiber and service lines are extending over our traditional proper and service lives because it's a great product and people want to keep it.

Speaker 7: And I know what those in-service lives are, and I know how long people keep that product in service. And the great thing is, is when they hold it for, you know, four and a half, five years, I can scale the product over that period of time, and it's highly profitable. And we need to think about every customer we bring on in that regard, and we're being...

Speaker 7: And we're trying to be true to that in what we're doing. And to the extent that you do that in a subscription base, it plays out well for you over time. And it's just about being deliberate and disciplined in making sure that happens.

Speaker 7: Thanks very much. I think that's all the time we have for questions. John , turn it over to you for final remarks. So I appreciate everybody joining us this quarter. From my point of view, it was a solid quarter that set us off on the right path to deliver to you what we've committed for this year. We are focused on something very, very basic.

Speaker 7: It's executing in our markets while we're continuing to restructure the cost of the business and Position our infrastructure for the future as I just wrapped up with what I said with wall And I feel really good about the way we were able to do that in many respects I kind of look at what we did operationally this quarter and I I characterize it as uneventful and As we talked about with the management team right now having a few uneventful things occur where we get to call the point

Speaker 10: service, you may now disconnect.

Speaker 12: We're sorry, your conference is ending now. Please hang up.

Speaker 13: The.

Speaker 13: I have.