Cincinnati Financial Corporation Q1 2023 Earnings Call
Speaker 1: Hello, this is the operator. I just have an announcement that Cincinnati Financial's meeting will be starting at 11.02. Just please hang on and we'll be with you soon. Thank you.
Speaker 2: The.
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Speaker 1: Good day and welcome to the Cincinnati Financial First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.
Speaker 1: All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal with conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero.
Speaker 1: After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.
Speaker 1: To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on a touchtone phone.
Speaker 1: To withdraw your question, please press star then 2.
Speaker 1: Please note this event is being recorded.
Speaker 1: I would now like to turn the conference over to Dennis McDaniel, Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.
Speaker 3: Hello, this is Dennis McDaniel at Cincinnati Financial.
Speaker 3: Thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2023 earnings conference call.
Speaker 3: Late yesterday, we issued a news release on our results along with our supplemental financial package including our quarter-end investment portfolio.
Speaker 3: To find copies of any of these documents, please visit our investor website, cinfin.com slash investors.
Speaker 3: The shortest route to the information is the quarterly results link in the navigation menu on the far left.
Speaker 3: On this call, you will first hear from Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Steve Johnston, and then from Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Mike Sewell.
Speaker 3: After their prepared remarks, investors participating on a call may ask questions.
Speaker 3: At that time, some responses may be made by others in the room with us, including President Steve Sprague and Cincinnati Insurance's Chief Investment Officer Steve Soloria, Chief Claims Officer Mark Shambaugh, and Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance, Theresa Hopper.
Speaker 3: First, please note that some of the matters to be discussed today are forward looking.
Speaker 3: These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties.
Speaker 3: With respect to these risks and uncertainties, we direct your attention to our news release and to our various filings with the SEC.
Speaker 3: Also, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures was provided with the news release.
Speaker 3: Statutory accounting data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules and therefore is not reconciled to GAAP. For now, I'll turn over the call to Steve.
Speaker 4: Thank you, Dennis, and good morning. And thank you for joining us today to hear more about our results.
Speaker 4: Net income of $225 million for the first quarter of 2023 rebounded from a net loss position for the same quarter a year ago. As gains and losses from securities still held in our equity portfolio run through net income, we'll continue to experience these swings.
Speaker 4: Last year, we saw a reduction in portfolio fair value, and this year we recognized a significant investment gain.
Speaker 4: We aren't concerned with these quarterly fluctuations in our equity portfolio. We believe the value will continue to grow over the long term. Currently, our equity portfolio holds $5.7 billion in appreciated value.
Speaker 4: non-GAAP operating income of $141 million for the quarter was down $119 million from a year ago, including catastrophe losses that were $163 million higher on an after-tax basis.
Speaker 4: Our 100.7% first quarter 2023 property casualty combined ratio was 10.8 percentage points higher than last year's first quarter, driven by an increase of 11.0 points for catastrophe losses.
Speaker 4: Our first quarter 90.1% XCAT accent year combined ratio was 0.8 percentage points worse than the same period a year ago, but 0.1 points better than the full 2022 XCAT accent year combined ratio of 90.2% that we reported at our last conference call.
Speaker 4: Despite the increase in catastrophe losses in the persistency of elevated inflation effects, we see several reasons to be confident about performance for the remainder of the year.
Speaker 4: Pricing during the first quarter of this year was higher than the fourth quarter of last year for each major line of business.
Speaker 4: To help address inflation, we also make changes to factors that adjust premiums to account for rising property costs.
Speaker 4: On a current accident year basis measured at March 31st before catastrophe losses, our 2023 consolidated property casualty loss and loss expense ratio improved from 2022 by 6.7 percentage points on a case incurred basis, which includes a 1.6% loss.
Speaker 4: point improvement on a paid basis. However, we increase the incurred but not reported, or IBNR component of the ratio by 9.2 points as we continue to recognize uncertainty regarding ultimate losses remaining prudent in our reserve estimates until longer-term loss cost trends become more clear.
Speaker 4: We also earned a small underwriting profit on our commercial umbrella line for the quarter, another positive given recent quarter challenges we and the industry have experienced in various casualty lines of business.
Speaker 4: We're proud of our underwriters who are working with Cincinnati's appointed insurance agencies to overcome various challenges facing our industry. They continue to emphasize retention of profitable accounts, addressing ones that we determine have inadequate pricing while also seeking profitable new business.
Speaker 4: While the first quarter of last year was a record high for new business at that time and created a difficult comparison for growth this year, we believe our associates pricing and underwriting discipline was also a factor in our 14% reduction in commercial lines new business written premiums in the first quarter of this year.
Speaker 4: Turning to net written premiums, the consolidated property casualty result rose 6% for the first quarter. That included a 10% increase in the first quarter renewal written premiums, with a significant portion from higher levels of insured exposures as we factor in elevated inflation.
Speaker 4: Our Commercialized Insurance Segment had estimated average renewal price increases near the high end of the mid-single digit range.
Speaker 4: Our excess and surplus lines insurance segment moved higher in the high single-digit range.
Speaker 4: personalized average renewal price increases were in the mid single-digit range including both auto and homeowner.
Speaker 4: As we previously disclosed, we expect premium rates will continue to rise for our personal auto line of business, reaching a full year 2023 premium rate increase of approximately 10%.
Speaker 4: I'll briefly highlight premium growth and profitability by insurance segment. Commercial lines grew first quarter 2023 net ren premiums 4%. Its combined ratio was 8.1 percentage points higher than a year ago, including 9.0 points from catastrophe losses.
Speaker 4: Personal lines grew net written premiums 20%, largely from planned expansion of Cincinnati private client business for high net worth clients of our agencies. Its combined ratio was 28.6 percentage points higher than a year ago, including 23.0 points from catastrophe losses. Access and surplus lines had a combined ratio of 89.9%
Speaker 4: Cincinnati REE had a 79.6% combined ratio. While net written premiums decreased by 9%, we benefited from the firm reinsurance market. Our pricing is stronger relative to the risk we assumed and we tightened terms and conditions while also exercising underwriting discipline.
Speaker 4: We reallocated capacity to participations where seating companies selected higher loss retention levels and non-renewed certain quota share reinsurance treaties where we had previously assumed risk on a retrocessional basis.
Speaker 4: Cincinnati Global's combined ratio was 87.5%, with Net Written Premium growing 25%.
Speaker 4: Our life insurance subsidiary had another good quarter with net income up 12% from last year's first quarter and term life insurance earned premium growth of 4%. I'll conclude as usual with the value creation ratio, our primary measure of long-term financial performance. Our first quarter 2023 VCR was 3.1%.
Speaker 4: Net income before investment gains or losses contributed 1.3%, while favorable valuation of our investment portfolio added another 1.9%. Now, our Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell, will comment on other key factors of our financial performance.
Speaker 3: Thank you, Steve, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Investment income continued to grow up 14% for the first quarter 2023 versus last year and outpacing the 12% we reported for the fourth quarter.
Speaker 5: Dividend income increased by 2% for the quarter as dividend rates are increasing more slowly.
Speaker 5: Looking ahead to next quarter's dividend growth, you may remember we received a $5 million special dividend from one of our stock holdings in last year's second quarter that will make for a tough comparison in the second quarter of 2023.
Speaker 5: Net equity security purchases for the first quarter totaled $18 million.
Speaker 5: Bond interest income was up 14% in the first quarter compared with the first quarter of 2022.
Speaker 5: We added more fixed maturity securities to our investment portfolio with net purchases totaling $303 million.
Speaker 5: for the first three months of the year. The pre-tax average yield of 4.25% for the fixed maturity portfolio was 24 basis points higher than a year ago. The average pre-tax yield for the total purchase taxable tax exempt bonds.
Speaker 5: during the first quarter of 2023 was 6.18%. Evaluation changes for our investment portfolio during the first quarter of 2023 were favorable and aggregate for both our stock and bond holdings.
Speaker 5: The overall net gain for the quarter was $269 million before tax effects.
Speaker 5: At the end of the quarter, total investment portfolio net appreciated value was approximately $5 billion.
Speaker 5: The equity portfolio was in a net gain position of $5.7 billion, while the fixed maturity portfolio was in a net loss position of $684 million.
Speaker 5: Cash flow continued to augment rising bond yields, helping to grow interest income.
Speaker 5: Cash flow from operating activities for the first three months of 2023 was $250 million, up 26% from a year ago.
Speaker 5: Regarding expense management, we intend to appropriately balance controlling expenses with making strategic investments in our business.
Speaker 5: The first quarter 2023 property casualty underwriting expense ratio was 1.7 percentage points lower than last year.
Speaker 5: Most of the decrease was from a small ratio for accrued profit sharing commissions for agencies and related expenses. Moving on to loss reserves, we maintain a consistent approach that targets net amounts in the upper half of the actuarially estimated range of net loss and loss expense reserves.
Speaker 5: As we do each quarter, we consider new information, such as paid losses and case reserves, and then updated estimated ultimate losses and loss expenses by year and line of business.
Speaker 5: During the first quarter of 2023, our net increase in property casualty loss loss expense reserves was $271 million, including $266 million for the IBNR portion.
Speaker 5: We experienced $59 million of property casualty net favorable reserve development on prior accident years that benefited the combined ratio by 3.2 percentage points.
Speaker 5: On an all-line basis by accident year, net reserve development for the first three months of 2023 included favorable $44 million for 2022, unfavorable $2 million for 2021, and zero billion for 2023, which areside h
Speaker 5: favorable $34 million for 2020, and unfavorable $17 million in aggregate for accident years prior to 2020.
Speaker 5: We remain steadfast in how we approach capital management.
Speaker 5: and we repurchase shares that include maintenance intended to offset shares issued through equity compensation plans.
Speaker 5: We believe our financial flexibility is quite good and that we have excellent financial strength.
Speaker 5: During the first quarter of 2023, we repurchased nearly 202,000 shares at an average price per share of $123.84.
Speaker 5: As in the past, I'll conclude with a summary of the first quarter contributions to book value per share. They represent the main drivers of our value creation ratio.
Speaker 5: Property casually underwriting decreased book value by five cents.
Speaker 5: Life insurance operations increased book value 12 cents. Investment income other than life insurance and net of non-insurance items headed 46 cents.
Speaker 5: Net investment gains and losses for the fixed income portfolio increase book value by 81 cents.
Speaker 5: 75 cents per share in dividends to shareholders.
Speaker 5: The net effect was a book value increase of $1.12 per share during the first quarter to $68.33 per share.
Speaker 4: And now I'll turn the call back over to Steve. Thanks, Mike. Before we open the call for questions, I'd like to comment on some transitions within our Cincinnati REE team. Later in the first quarter, Mini's director and head of Cincinnati REE, Jamie Hole, resigned to pursue other interests. We thank Jamie for his significant contributions to our reinsurance business.
Speaker 4: and for his work in assembling a strong team of seasoned reinsurance professionals.
Speaker 4: We wish him well with his motorsports ambitions and with any other future endeavors.
Speaker 4: Phil Sandercocks, who has led our Casualty Reinsurance Division since 2016, is now leading Cincinnati RE. Phil has more than 35 years of reinsurance experience, including leadership roles with Aspen ReAmerica and GenRE. We are all confident in the future of Cincinnati RE under Phil's leadership and leadership development.
Speaker 4: and look forward to continuing to grow this aspect of our business over time.
Speaker 4: As a reminder, with Mike and me today are Steve Spray, Steve Soloria, Mark Shambaugh, and Teresa Hopper.
Speaker 1: Marlise, please open the call for questions. Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your touchtone phone.
Speaker 1: If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys.
Speaker 1: If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then 2. At this time we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster.
Speaker 1: Our first question comes from Greg Peters from Raymond James.
Speaker 3: Greg, please go ahead. Well, good morning everyone. Morning, Greg. Yeah, I'd like to begin, you know, I was going through your press release and on page four.
Speaker 6: you talk about how the commercial lines average renewal pricing was near the high end of the mid single digit percent range. In the next sentence, you commented this in your prepared remarks, you talked about the 14% decrease in the
Speaker 6: in new business written by agencies. So it seems to be moving in two different directions, strong pricing or increasing pricing. And is it increased competition? Maybe you could give us a sense of why pricing's holding up yet there's more competition or for new business at least.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Greg thanks. Deep spray here. You know, first of all on that higher end of the mid-single digit range on average, I think the key to that for us as well, and I like to talk about it, is just the segmentation that we have in the book. So the average certainly doesn't tell.
Speaker 5: the entire story. We're segmenting the book, we're getting more rate on those risks that we feel like we need more, and then really focused on retaining those accounts that we feel we've got an adequate price on.
Speaker 5: Rates are still strong on the renewal book. And then to your question on new business.
Speaker 7: the field reps across the country whose primary responsibility is to underwrite and price new commercial lines business.
Speaker 7: they have just executed precisely the way we have wanted them to. And it is around underwriting and pricing discipline. We've got the tools for them to use per risk to know how their pricing is on each one of those risks. And they've just been showing
Speaker 7: Just great discipline on the pricing. So it is really around, I would say, price adequacy is where we're feeling the pressure and competition, I think, from other markets.
Speaker 6: Just as a follow up to that answer, is there any geographic areas that seem to be running a little hotter from a competition standpoint or is it just fairly broad based?
Speaker 7: I would say there are areas that get hotter than others from time to time, Greg. And the way we look at the business is we still think insurance and commercial insurance is a local business. So we'll have local competitors or regional competitors in probably almost every state.
Speaker 7: where we do business. Obviously we compete with the Nationals as well. But yeah, there are different jurisdictions that will run hotter or colder than others or you'll see increased competition more so in a specific state than you will another but...
Speaker 6: It bounces around quite a bit quite frankly. Yeah I guess the second and another question I have is just like on the underlying margin in commercial It seems like inflation running there, you know, it's going over your your statistics in the commercial casualty property and auto
Speaker 4: and I think per your question we still see inflation.
Speaker 4: We feel that we're in a good position in terms of as Steve described the and I described in the in the set
Speaker 4: presentation, the increases that we are getting in terms of keeping pace and exceeding our lost cost inflation. Keep in mind for us it's always prospective. We're basically always trying to look at data that we have, forecast out what we think will be the lost cost.
Speaker 4: in prospective policy periods and then do our best to charge premiums that cover those loss costs and provide our target profit returns. And we feel we're in a good position to do that and also our underwriting.
Speaker 4: Everybody on the team is chipping in on this in terms of underwriting. Steve mentioned the segmentation. Our book continues to shift to a mix that we feel is a mix that contains more of the policies with the high profit potential.
Speaker 4: and the low profit potential. That's an ongoing effort that we have and we feel very optimistic about our future prospects.
Speaker 6: Those are good points. Thanks for the answers. Thank you, Greg.
Speaker 1: Our next question comes from Mike Zaremski from BMO. Mike, please go ahead....
Speaker 8: Hey, great. Good morning. I guess first question on stick with commercial lines and talk about pricing versus exposure. I feel like you and others have talked about updating replacement costs.
Speaker 8: which I believe is more on the property side, you know, to reflect the inflationary levels of inflation to, you know, per square foot to replace things. And am I correct that runs through exposure, not through pricing and...
Speaker 8: And if so, is there any numbers you can put around where you are in terms of getting your exposure levels to be in line with the updated replacement costs? Is that also …
Speaker 7: Is this phenomenon also driving up pure pricing x exposure too? Thanks. Mike again, Steve Sprague, great point and yes for guys for quite a few quarters now we have continued to Quite frankly, we're always taking increases in the exposure on the property side
Speaker 7: as far as a breakdown between
Speaker 7: net rate and exposure change on commercial property. I would say it's about 50-50 for the first quarter of, I'll just speak to the first quarter of 23, but it's about about half and half rate and exposure. And I know you're not asking this right on that specific question, but you have the same
Speaker 8: premium growth, is it the premium growth just already a lot?
Speaker 8: Is it just there were some tough comps or are there some types of maybe corrective actions being taken to get the combined ratio down to lower levels? My next question is on the catastrophe load so I don't know if that delves into that too.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think this is Steve Sprague. Steve, Justin may want to weigh in here as well. I do think, yes, it is. It's pricing and underwriting discipline that is showing up. Our retentions remain strong, you know, but mix of business can change a bit that can affect that. Obviously, the new business.
Speaker 7: being under a bit of pressure from our underwriting action and our pricing. You know, if you would note, in the last several quarters, we've had some increased loss experience and umbrella.
Speaker 7: We're taking corrective action as an example in our umbrella line of book, reducing capacity, increasing pricing. That's putting pressure on the umbrella policy retention. So it's a multitude of things. It's a great question, but there's a lot of moving parts there as you pointed out.
Speaker 8: My final question was just, is it fair for us and I appreciate one of the reasons we're all in business is to protect against catastrophe losses. It's just inherently going to be volatile.
Speaker 8: Catastrophe levels, I feel like it's been a bit of a trend higher than expected if I think over the last decade plus. So is it fair for us in our models to just look at an average of since these catastrophe losses by segueing over, you know, we can do, you know, we can go back 15 years or so. Is that the way?
Speaker 8: you guys think about it. I know there's just changing dynamics too with higher reinsurance costs too which some companies have kind of told us. I know there's still ongoing negotiations but they've kind of hinted at we might be retaining more which you guys gave some disclosure to which could also increase.
Speaker 8: the catastrophe load level. So any thoughts on whether, you know, Spincy is also kind of thinking that, you know, maybe catastrophe levels are expected to be a bit higher on a forward basis. This is Steve Johnston and Mike. The way we go about it, and we don't give guidance on the cats, is we...
Speaker 4: do a combination of looking at our past experience the way you described it, but also using our models, you know, the catastrophe models in terms of building the loads that we have in. And there is just volatility across time. I think one of the makeups of our business
Speaker 4: that might be different is that we have a more exposure to severe convective storm, which has a higher frequency, but lower severity distribution. And we have just seen more of that type of loss, particularly here.
Speaker 4: in the first quarter, but you know over a period of time. So we focus on the overall and
Speaker 4: realizing we're going to have losses whether they be cats or they are in the X-cat bucket and focus on making sure that we can keep that combined ratio to our target level. I think we've been successful with it now with 11 years in a row with a combined ratio under 100. And so we'll continue to take...
Speaker 4: action to help mitigate the catastrophe losses in our underwriting and selection and so forth. I would say since we did increase the retention on our CAT program and talked about that in the last call, that would not have an impact on the
Speaker 4: cats that occurred in the first quarter this year. They were all under $100 million which was our retention prior to our change.
Speaker 9: Thank you.
Speaker 9: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Speaker 1: Our next question comes from Paul Nielsen from Piper Sandler. Paul, please go ahead.
Speaker 10: Good morning, Dr. Well, I was hoping first you could maybe dumb down for the IV&R increase in the quarter and where the pieces of that added conservativeness is coming from and just how we should.
Speaker 5: maybe just a little bit more of how you think we should interpret that piece in particular. Paul, this is Mike Sewell. I'll make a brief comment and then.
Speaker 5: whether or not anyone else wants to add on to that. But, you know, for the IBNR or for the quarter, we do lay that out really nicely, I think on page 10 in the supplement. And so you obviously know that you can see from there that through March we added $209 million of net loss IBNR.
Speaker 5: And that compared to an increase of 52 million through the same quarter of last year. The largest increase of that IBNR in the first quarter was related to the commercial casualty, which was about 101 million. We did add 50 million of IBNR between.
Speaker 5: CGU and Cinci Re. We added some on the ENS, $26 million there. And then also commercial auto $24 million and homeowner $21 million. Part of the $209 million in total, $25 million
Speaker 5: that was added. There was a 19 million decrease in IBNR related to catastrophe. So we had some favorable development in there. But of course, IBNR is only one ingredient to the entire
Speaker 5: loss combined ratio, etc. So, but that's kind of a summary and.
Speaker 4: Maybe, Steve, if you've got anything else to add. Yes, excellent coverage by Mike there. And I thought I would also maybe talk a little bit about more, maybe a little more detail on the comment I made in my fixed talk about the...
Speaker 4: current accident year quarter having an improvement on a case incurred basis. When we speak case incurred, and I think it's pretty common for the industry, it would be the paid losses plus the case reserve. And that's where we saw
Speaker 4: when we look at those two elements, a 6.7 percentage point improvement over the first quarter a year ago. However, we did add IBNR of 9.2 loss ratio points. So we think it's...
Speaker 4: It's a good point to make in that we see the improvement in the underlying case-incurred ratio, but prudent as we always are with reserves, as we recognize that the first accent quarter is very green, we did add a pretty substantial amount of IBNR.
Speaker 4: And so I think it gives us a good position in that we're seeing improvement in the page, in the case, yet we're still being true to our prudent reserving and the strong balance sheet that we always advocate. And actually, while it wasn't in the script, the same would hold.
Speaker 4: for our first-quarter calendar year loss ratio, improvement in the paid, improvement in the changing case, and we added about 10 1?2 points of IBNR. And so in total, it was up 1.7%. But just kind of decomposing that...
Speaker 4: total loss ratio into paid case.
Speaker 4: IBNR and comparing it to the quarter prior. Just thought I'd give it a little more color on that.
Speaker 10: I think on the last earnings conference call, you folks mentioned that you thought that the company was capable this year of getting a sort of mid to low 90s combined ratio. Maybe you could square those comments with what happened in the actual results of the first quarter and we look forward to your
Speaker 10: Should we think about the remainder of the year differently, given what happened in the fourth quarter? Just to kind of maybe…
Speaker 4: Square those comments with what happened and how we should think about perspectives. Sure, Paul. And you're never slow on anything. You always are on top of things. We still feel confident in the same guidance that we gave the last time. I think catastrophe losses are a little higher than...
Speaker 4: we would have probably anticipated for a first quarter, but we still have three quarters to go. And with all the positives we see happening in terms of pricing, segmentation, underwriting, loss control, the whole team effort that we're putting forth, we still stand by the same guidance.
Speaker 1: from KVW.
Speaker 1: Mayor, please go ahead.
Speaker 11: Great, thanks and good morning all. First question, I guess, it seems like at 1-1 there was no shortage of well-priced property premium, reinsurance premium available for anyone that wanted it. We didn't see the
Speaker 4: oh we thought decline in re-insurance premiums, I don't know breakdown between property and other lines. I was hoping you could sort of describe your current appetite for physically protect re-insurance business. Yes you know excellent question. You know the net written premium for Cincinnati RE was down.
Speaker 4: you know, I think it was due to intentional action that we took in a couple of areas. One, we were assuming business, retrocessional business.
Speaker 4: I think it was due to intentional action that we took in a couple of areas. One, we were assuming business, a retrocessional business, and as part of...
Speaker 4: a re-underwriting effort or looking at the Cincinnati RE-book, we didn't feel that we wanted to do that anymore. And so we exited doing property retrocession assuming and that premium decrease really represented all of the decrease in the Cincinnati RE-book.
Speaker 4: premium for the quarter as a result of not no longer doing property retrocession reinsurance.
Speaker 4: We also, as we look at each contract quantitatively, qualitatively, and look at the risk-reward, felt that we were best served to go higher as other companies increased their retention the way we did.
Speaker 4: those that we were re-insuring were doing the same. We-
Speaker 4: stayed with those, you know, at better rates, at better terms and conditions, I'd say on that property part, strong, you know, strong double-digit increases. And so, you know, with the reinsurance business, it's profit first and we are looking at every avenue of growing and growing profitably.
Speaker 4: This quarter, we thought we needed to take some action there with the retro sessions, but we are very confident on a go forward basis of continued growth. As you kind of suggest in your question, it's out there. We have a very talented team that is well positioned to take advantage of the opportunities.
Speaker 11: Okay, that's helpful. I really appreciate the clarification. Second question, this is more of a process question. We're hearing a lot of discussion of catastrophe-exposed primary property moving from admitted paper to an E&S market. I was wondering, within Cincinnati, is there an official capability to transfer that program?...
Speaker 7: from your admitted segments to E&S? Mayor Steve Spray, you know with E&S business, I guess the official process is every state's a little different. When you have an account that's admitted, you need to typically get a certain number of admitted market explanations.
Speaker 7: before you can export that to the non-admitted market. And so I think to answer your question, if I don't hit it, follow up on that with me, but to just move something from our admitted market into non-admitted, you cannot do that. You need to follow what they call a diligent search.
Speaker 7: to do that. That being said, you know, we are, you know, our E&S business, CSU, is about 90% casualty. We are writing an increased amount of homeowner business on an excess and surplus basis.
Speaker 7: And I think we're doing an excellent job providing our agents and the policyholders in their communities with alternatives and with capacity.
Speaker 7: in areas that
Speaker 7: that are maybe a little more, you know, they're just prone to an E&S solution. And I think we've been able to be very nimble, very flexible, and really step up for our agents on E&S on all fronts. So hopefully that answers your question.
Speaker 11: Oh, it does, very thoroughly, thank you. And then one final question, and it's going to sound like mid-picking, so I'll apologize in advance, but Steve Johnson was... An introductory comment, you talked about uncertainty over loss trends, and I guess I was wondering whether it's actual uncertainty or whether we're seeing, practically speaking...
Speaker 4: in casualty lines, like real signs of lost transit. Maybe the word uncertainty surprised me. Yeah, no, I think uncertainty had to do with, you know, when you're making trends coming out of a pandemic and the time period that you look at and when you look at, you know, increasing inflation in different areas and how it's...
Speaker 4: How it's evolving social inflation, I think, you know, economic conditions in terms of, you know, what one might expect in terms of a possible recession, you know, just all the various different things of uncertainty. That that go into it was more of a, I think, a general statement mayor. Okay, thank you so much for your patience and for clarification.
Speaker 1: No, that's a good question. Thank you. Our next question comes from Mark Dwelli from RBC. Mark, please proceed. Yeah, good morning. I think what I want to try to do is just knit together some of the things that we've been talking about already this morning. virus but to have some molecule adversity that might have some information on me from this morning. Okay. I'm going to go ahead and roll the clock. Here's my last question. I think anyone involved will agree this is hard to just hang and know.
Speaker 1: In the 10k, there's a comment with respect to the commercial umbrella that it suggested that it added about 1 point.
Speaker 1: to the commercial lines combined ratio in the quarter. It also suggested in the same, in a subsequent paragraph that there was a substantial IVNR ad. And then I think you said in your opening remarks that you were kind of pleased with the fact that that line had become profitable this quarter after that was a line that had been difficult over the last.
Speaker 1: the last several quarters, and certainly gave rise to some reserve ads earlier last year. So I guess what I wanted to try to ask is maybe using that particular line as a lens, what are you trying to communicate there? Is this a line that you like, or a line that is rehabilitating?
Speaker 1: I guess I feel like there's a lot of different noise going on in the different things that you're trying to communicate there. Yeah, I guess cutting right to the chase, it is a line that we like.
Speaker 4: It is a line that, you know, we saw challenged last year. It is a line where we've taken corrective action on multiple fronts, and we see it in an improving fashion now. And it did produce a small underwriting profit for the
Speaker 4: first quarter that we were happy to see. And so I think the most important point is it's been a line of business that has been good to us for decades in terms of growth and profitability, and we think it will in the future and that it's needed a little bit more attention here of late and that we've given it that attention.
Speaker 1: And then the drag that it's producing on the overall combined ratio, is that exclusively the result of the the IBNR ad? Or is that just reflective of the fact of where it is in its, I'll call it rehabilitation cycle that...
Speaker 1: It had been a bigger drag and now it is a smaller drag even with an IBNR ad.
Speaker 4: That's right, and it is, I think, comparing to our Xcat combined ratio, but when we talk about the deterioration.
Speaker 1: Right, of course. I think you had commented earlier about some of the pricing action. Can you give a general idea of where, I know the overall growth in the line was about 10% on the premium side, where the range of pricing improvement on that is?
Speaker 7: Yeah, Mark, I would say that that's almost exclusively price in that 10%.
Speaker 1: So the exposure is probably flat to even maybe declining a little bit and the rate is really everything that's happening there. That's correct.
Speaker 1: So we're really not... So the exposure is probably flat to even maybe declining a little bit and the rate is really everything that's happening there. That's correct. Got it. Okay.
Speaker 1: The second thing I again this is building on a question you just answered for mayor I just wanted to make sure I kind of got that right as far as the the decline in premium in the re-insurance unit It sounds like it's it's ultimately sort of two things one being that you've
Speaker 1: exited some portion of the retro, the property retro market. And the second is that you're higher in the tower. So accordingly you're getting less premium. And accordingly in theory should be taking more distant exposure, all else equal. So if I reached the right conclusion on that, you have net reduced your overall cat and property exposure.
Speaker 4: as a result of the underwriting actions you're taking there. That's exactly right, and Mark probably better stated than I did.
Speaker 1: I had the advantage of being able to listen to the answer first. All right, and one more question that I wanted to talk about, and this is on the personal line side, and it's also going to be a catastrophe related kind of question. So you had 30 points of current period cat exposure. In my recollection, that's...
Speaker 1: among the highest ever for that segment of the business. As you think about the 30 points that you had, and we know that there was a certain number of events in the quarter.
Speaker 1: the highest ever for that segment of the business. As you think about the 30 points that you had, and we know that there's a certain number of events in the quarter.
Speaker 1: When I think of a number, is that a product of the particular geographies that were impacted? Was it a product of the changes that you've made and where your reinsurance attaches and how that coverage operates?
Speaker 1: Or is it a change in the fact that you're writing a lot more high net worth homeowners and accordingly, you know, pound for pound if the tornado hits a million dollar house, that's a bigger impact than if it hits a $500,000 house.
Speaker 4: Which of those pieces I guess dominates as far as why that number was quite as large as it was? Yeah, I would say first off I wanted to clarify that it didn't have to do with us buying less reinsurance and that
Speaker 4: For those that occurred in the first quarter, each of them were under a hundred million, which was our retention in 2022. So, our raising our retention did not impact that any. I think that it was just widespread. I think that for the third quarter in a row,
Speaker 4: We had one that happened on virtually the last day of the quarter, which makes it a little bit tougher to estimate in the time frames we have to estimate them, which, you know, leads to a little bit of uncertainty. Still saying we made our best estimate, and, you know, our claims people do a great job of being out there and on the spot and making estimates.
Speaker 1: But it was just a widespread quarter where there were a lot of catastrophes that affected us. Okay, so if I'm hearing you right on that, it's sort of a frequency plus maybe a little extra scoop of conservatism just because it was right at the end of the quarter. Certainly on the frequency. I'm hoping that way on the extra...
Speaker 4: scoop but you know we do go with our best estimate and we'll have to wait and see how that one plays out. I might have tipped my hand a little bit to my personal thoughts on that.
Speaker 12: All righty then. I'll stop there. Thanks for the answers. Thank you. And our next question comes from Grace Carter from Bank of America. Grace, please go ahead. You in the
Speaker 12: All righty then. I'll stop there. Thanks for the answers. Thank you. And our next question comes from Grace Carter from Bank of America. Grace, please go ahead. Hi, everyone.
Speaker 12: I'll stop there. Thanks for the answers. Thank you. And our next question comes from Grace Carter from Bank of America. Grace, please go ahead. Hi, everyone. Hi, Grace.
Speaker 13: So, new business written has been pretty strong in personal lines for the past several quarters. I was just wondering how that's trended relative to expectations as you've ramped up rate increases and how you see that progressing over the course of the year as you continue to do so.
Speaker 13: And if there's just any differences you're expecting, this pricing cycle versus previous periods where you've needed higher rates, just given the increased tilt towards high net worth business. Thanks. Great. Steep spray. Great question. I think a lot of the growth that you're seeing in...
Speaker 7: personal lines is our continued growth in the high net worth area. I would also add that you know we're now about as a company we're about 50% high net worth or private client and 50% middle market and we think that gives us an advantage in the marketplace for our agents. And over the last several years personal lines was taking necessary corrective action.
Speaker 7: primarily in the middle market space, pretty tough action in some specific states and that put a lot of pressure on growth over time and we think we've got that turned and so that now bottoming out and coming back up has helped us with growth in personal lines. I would also add that we have continued to improve in pricing sophistication in personal lines that's contributing there as well. I might add that and Steve mentioned it mentioned it in his script.
Speaker 7: what we're doing with with rate increases and as those continue to come in to the written premium and then also as over a longer period time as they continue to earn I would expect that it's going to put some pressure on our new business growth.
Speaker 13: Thank you. And just one more quick question. Is there anything worth calling out from the recent reforms in Florida in the results this quarter? Again, Grace, this is Steve Spray. I would say that we look at the changes in Florida just on the surface as very positive.
Speaker 12: And let me remind you, if you would still like to pose a question, press star 1.
Speaker 12: Our next question is coming from Mike Zaremski with a follow-up at BMO. Mike, please go ahead. Thanks for letting me re-up.
Speaker 8: You know, I guess you gave us some good color on the paid loss ratios improving a bit, which we can also do the math ourselves. I guess you didn't umbrella that issue on a commercial umbrella, which popped up last time.
Speaker 8: You guys didn't specifically mention it. Do you feel that the trends you're seeing are normalizing? Auto for the industry too and for everyone seems to be kind of getting
Speaker 8: again with social inflation potentially or maybe it's just, you know, coming on a severity side. So just kind of curious, you know, pricing is moving in the right direction. It seems like the paid loss ratio moving in the right direction, but, uh, you know, Maybe you could touch on commercial auto and umbrella and do you feel like industry-wide pricing is
Speaker 8: is moving in the right direction because loss costs are also kind of moving a bit higher.
Speaker 4: Yes, this Steve Johnson. Good question. Mike. I do think that, you know, we're taking the appropriate action. I do think that we're seeing, you know, a little bit more of a normalization of the trends in umbrella.
Speaker 4: However, I want to be cautionary in that it's still, for us volume-wise, it's a low frequency, high severity line for us. So it is going to have noise from time to time and that makes the trends a little bit harder. But I do think that...
Speaker 4: You know, we're seeing the action that we're taking both on the pricing and underwriting side having a positive effect. And, you know, I would say basically. The same thing for commercial auto, that's it's an area where we've we've paid good attention to over a long period of time. And I think we're. We're on the right track and feel optimistic about it.
Speaker 8: Okay and that's helpful and maybe last follow-up is just because since he has best-in-class disclosure on the on the property side both on commercial and personal lines it is it fair to look at a ratio excluding large losses and and then looking at the action year that way because it if you do that the you know the action loss ratio is
Speaker 8: is up on the property lines. Any thoughts there?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think, and thank you for the compliment on the transparency and the disclosure, I think what we like to do is lay it out there with as much detail for you so that different people, different analysts have different ways that they go about making their forecasts. And so, you know, if you want to do something, you know, you can do it.
Speaker 4: X-cat, X-large loss and then build in a kind of a long-term provision for both or you want to do it you know just X-cat and build in a long-term provision for X-cat. You can do it that way. So we just you know basically try to...
Speaker 4: You know, lay out as much detail as we can for you, be as transparent as possible, and give you as much information as we can so that you can do your jobs well.
Speaker 8: And so if we do that, the underlying ratios and property have been going higher, getting worse. Is that why there's corrective actions being taken and pricing's moving higher? And is that a fair way of...
Speaker 8: of looking at things and you know, you're getting more exposure to reprice on the replacement costs. Just trying to see if that ratio is okay for us to look at as a trend still looks like it's not improving at this point. Yeah, no, we have been taking the rate in property and corrective action in property for some time. We do.
Speaker 4: that are underwriting as well, improving on our technology and just really addressing it on all fronts and feel pretty good about the way we're going.
Speaker 12: Okay, understood. Thanks for answering a number of tough questions. Thank you. Thank you, Mike. And this concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Johnston for any closing picks.
Speaker 4: Thank you, Marlise. And thanks to all of you for joining us today. We hope to see some of you at our annual meeting of shareholders on Saturday, May 6th at the Cincinnati Art Museum. You're also welcome to listen to our webcast of the meeting available at SynthIn.com slash investors and we look forward to speaking with you again on our second quarter call. Have a great day.
Speaker 12: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending Cincinnati Financial's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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