Q1 2023 Antero Midstream Corporation Earnings Call

Greetings and welcome to the Antero Midstream first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance. During the conference. Please press star zero on your telephone keypad.

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded it is now my pleasure to introduce your host Justin Agnew director of Finance and Investor Relations. Thank you you may begin.

Good morning, and thanks for joining us for Antero Midstream first quarter Investor Conference call, we'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operating highlights and then we'll open it up for Q&A.

Also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at Www Dot Antero midstream Dot com, where we've provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

Today's call May also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measure.

Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman, CEO , and President of Antero resources and Antero midstream.

Randy Krueger CFO of Antero midstream and Michael Kennedy CFO of Antero resources, and director I mean chairman stream.

That I will turn the call over to Paul.

Thanks, Justin.

I will start my comments on slide number three titled increasing lateral lengths enhancing.

<unk> economics.

The left hand side of the page illustrates the increase in lateral lengths of completed wells over the last several years.

In 2023, the average lateral length for our completed wells.

Expected to be approximately 13 five.

500 feet.

During the first quarter longer laterals and higher completion stages per day drove a 41% increase in fresh water delivery volumes year over year.

This was despite servicing only two additional wells year over year.

As shown on the right hand side of the page longer laterals improve am economics by approximately $1 7 million per well for every 1000 feet of incremental lateral given that there is no additional well connect capital required.

2017 lateral lengths have increased by approximately 4000 feet on average.

This has resulted in nearly $7 million of incremental revenue per well, assuming an EUR of 2.0 Bcf per thousand feet.

Yes.

The longer laterals. In addition to incremental locations are a result of ar's consistent organic leasing program.

During the first quarter and invested $72 million organic leasehold, adding the equivalent of over 50 drilling locations.

AAM servicing 23, well completions during the first quarter. These organic leasing efforts replenished the wells completed and added 27 more locations.

Now, let's move to slide number four titled.

Operational performance.

Sure.

This slide highlights the operational efforts at AAR that resulted in record performance at.

Supported by Ams water business.

Our average 11 completion stages per day, which is approximately 40% higher than the 2022 average of eight stages per day.

In addition, <unk> set a new daily company record of 16 stages per day from one completion crew, which is an incredible achievement.

Importantly, we continue to be very encouraged by the well productivity we are seeing on am dedicated.

<unk> acreage.

This operational performance and well productivity helped to drive record throughput and earnings at a well ahead of expectations.

These achievements are only possible with aam's integrated water system, which has not missed or caused a delay in completions since <unk> acquired the business in 2015.

Lastly, I want to highlight.

Differentiated liquid strategy on slide number five.

For the last decade, our strategy has been to develop low cost liquids rich locations in Appalachia and avoid local basis.

As depicted on the top half of the page a ourselves 100% of its gas outside of Appalachia, and approximately 75% of its gas to the LNG fairway.

This allows <unk> to avoid volatile local basis in Appalachia, particularly in the shoulder season, the bottom half of this slide illustrates the liquids contribution to overall revenues as a result of its diversified product mix almost half of <unk> revenues are from Ngls and oil.

Given the relative strength in liquids prices relative to gas. This provides further support for <unk> development program.

While we expect this downward cycle in gas prices to be shorter than prior cycles. These two characteristics insulate AAM from any significant development risk.

In summary, our operational performance during the first quarter allowed us to generate record results and increase our guidance ranges for the year.

With that I will turn the call over to Brendan Kruger Brandon. Thanks, Paul I'll start my comments by briefly highlighting the year over year results on slide six titled strong start to 2023 during the first quarter low pressure gathering and compression volumes increased by 8%.

And 11%, respectively compared to the prior year quarter.

This year over year growth was driven by both organic throughput growth and a full quarter contribution from our bolt on acquisitions.

This allowed us to generate adjusted EBITDA of $242 million, which was a 16% increase year over year and a new company record.

Capital expenditures declined by 64% from the prior year quarter to $34 million. This quarter. This decline was driven by a M. Completing a majority of its core infrastructure projects supporting volumetric growth in 2022 and 2023.

As a result of increasing EBITDA and declining capital we transitioned from a 30 $38 million outspend during the prior year quarter to generate $46 million of free cash flow after dividends this quarter.

This was a company record for AAM and this cash flow was used to pay down debt as we look to the remainder of the year, we forecast investing approximately 60% of our capital budget in the second and third quarter, which we expect to result in lower free cash flow during those quarters before picking back up in the fourth quarter.

I'll finish my comments on slide seven titled operational performance drives increased guidance for 2023.

Driven by the exceptional operational results in the first quarter all discussed in his remarks, we increased our adjusted EBITDA guidance by $20 million to a range of 952 $990 million.

This was the result of both an acceleration in the completion schedule that will drive slightly higher throughput in the back half of the year and encouraging well productivity.

From a freshwater delivery timing perspective, it will result in modestly lower freshwater delivery volumes in the second quarter as a result of those budgeted volumes accelerated into the first quarter drawing.

Truing up our capital for the first quarter results continued efficiency gains and the deferral of one capital project into 2024, we are revising our capital budget down $15 million to a midpoint of $190 million.

Higher EBITDA and lower capital resulted in a $35 million increase to our free cash flow before dividends to $570 million at the midpoint of guidance, which reflects an attractive 12% free cash flow yield at today's prices.

Lastly, we expect to generate $140 million of free cash flow after dividends at the midpoint of guidance. This free cash flow will be used for continued debt reduction throughout 2023, as we make progress towards our three times leverage target in 2024.

Importantly, as we look ahead to 2024, we expect free cash flow after dividends to continue to expand north of $200 million driven by Derisked EBITDA growth at the low pressure gathering rebate expires at the end of this year.

Before concluding my remarks, I would also like to highlight that <unk> received.

<unk> received a positive ratings outlook from S&P. This morning on a double b plus corporate rating.

With a further upgrade from S&P.

Would achieve investment grade status, given the investment grade rating at Fitch already.

In summary, AAM continues to block and tackle and deliver strong operations quarter after quarter, our strategy of enhancing our organic growth by integrating strategic bolt on acquisitions or third party business continues to pay dividends for our shareholders. As we look ahead, we will continue to grow our free cash flow generated by our highly visible hi, rich.

Turn projects that deliver shareholder value for the decades ahead.

With that operator, we are ready to take questions.

Okay.

Thank you at this time, we will be conducting a question and answer session.

I would like to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone keypad. The confirmation tone will indicate that your line is another question queue. You May press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue for participants using speaker equipment and may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys.

Our first question is coming from the line of Colton Bean with Tudor Pickering Holt. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning, So just wanted to start off on your capital allocation priorities for 2024, and I think based on the guidance update this year and the Rollouts of the rebate framework that you mentioned it seems likely to hit that leverage target heading into next year. So as we sit here today can you just frame what your priorities might be as you achieve that leverage target whether thats further debt reduction.

Return to distribution growth or ramping share repurchases.

Yes, no great question Goldman I think as we look to 2024, we will certainly evaluate where we're at at that point I think if we were at the same price. We are at today from a share price perspective share repurchases would certainly be an attractive option to us.

We've talked about it in the past, but AAR continues to add organic inventory.

Which is all dedicated to am so that inventory and length of inventory continues to grow.

It just makes the share repurchases that much more attractive as you look at just the implied valuation of AAM out relative to the price today. So as we as we look out share repurchases would be would be at the top of the stack, but we'll continue to evaluate as we get closer to that three times target.

Great and then shifting to operations within Q1 saw a bit of a step up in gathering Opex do you view that as a new run rate for the business or was there anything specific to Q1, which might result in lower unit opex through the balance of the year.

No. We did we did have some heavy maintenance at <unk>.

Into Q1 on some of our compression so I would not expect that to be a consistent run rate number going forward should see some of that come off.

Perfect I appreciate the time.

Thanks, Paul.

Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Mark Sollecito with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, Good morning, So you mentioned the acceleration of completion activity in well performance driving the upward revision in 'twenty three EBITDA guidance I'm wondering if you could just comment on the carryforward into 2024 or <unk>.

<unk> 23 exit rate heading into next year, and ultimately whether you anticipated timing and get into your leverage target has perhaps been pulled forward at all.

Yes, I mean, I think overall, we've communicated we still expect to hit that three times targeted in 2024. So.

No change on that.

Good progress this year with the free cash flow after dividends expected it at $140 million.

I will go to debt.

Pay down so.

Youll move down nicely from our three seven times leverage at year end.

But still expect to achieve that three times target in 2024.

Got it and maybe just to clarify I think before it was later in 2024.

Any acceleration there.

Yes, you may see a quarter acceleration just due to the increase that we've seen this year in the updated guidance.

Got it I appreciate the time.

Sure. Thanks, Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Sunil Sibal with Seaport Global Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, hi, everybody. So I just wanted to touch upon.

The acquisitions that you completed last year I was curious you know how has that integration gone and then you know how is the crestwood assets.

Contributing.

Due to the Q1 results.

Yes.

The integration has gone.

Terrific. So far we have two acquisitions crestwood in that small small acquisition from Anne Lake on the compression side.

Fully integrated now.

And from a contribution standpoint, roughly $8 million to $9 million from those acquisitions.

In the quarter.

So a nice nice contribution from those assets and we will.

We'll look to continue.

With those assets going forward.

Thanks for that and then.

Could you remind us how much is your third party business.

Has that changed in any significant way with this acquisitions.

Acquisitions I know.

So it's all good.

<unk> volumes.

Yes, no change there.

As we've talked about nice fold in acquisitions, just given the.

The.

The primary unsold.

Customer on those assets driving all the volume and so very comfortable with the volume projections from those assets going forward.

Understood and then one broader question with regard to your three <unk> leverage.

I was kind of curious.

Trying to hit.

Credit ratings also when you look at <unk> leverage.

How do you kind of you know is it only nuomi TX leverage number.

When you think about this conceptually.

Yes, I mean, I think if you look at the midstream landscape.

Three times leverage would certainly put you.

Kind of ahead of the pack relative to our others are at I think we've certainly had conversations with the with the rating agencies.

We talked about the operator.

<unk> received from S&P in terms of the.

Ratings outlook this morning.

And so I think from the AAM standpoint, continuing to reduce the debt there should pay off from a ratings standpoint down the road as well.

Got it thanks for that.

Sure.

Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of net Bahram of with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, Thanks for thanks for taking the questions one on Capex. So in light of the lower Capex budget in 2023, and some of the efficiencies and.

Lower materials costs could you maybe talk about.

Any potential reductions in the cumulative capex backlog through 2027, I believe that said $950 million.

Yeah. So from that standpoint, I think we will continue to evaluate and I think you've seen that every single year at AAN, where capital has come in lower than what we've guided.

We haven't changed in the five year right now but as.

As you've seen we are we are always working to lower that capital through the efficiencies and we've.

We've talked about it on past calls, but the acquisitions that could come with.

With the <unk>.

Incremental compression Thats certainly been helpful in terms of being able to reuse that compression and avoid further build out of compression down. The road. So we will look to continue to optimize the assets as we move forward and would look to hopefully bring that number down over time as we have historically.

That makes sense and then one housekeeping item.

How much of the 317 Bcf per day of low pressure gathering volumes were were from Crestwood and I guess similar question on the high pressure volumes or what was the Crestwood Marcellus share in the 2.8 Bcf per day of high pressure volumes.

Yes, so the Crestwood is really just a low pressure and compression and so it's about 200 200, a day as it related to the Crestwood assets.

Great. Thank you that's all I had.

Alright, thank you.

As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question at this time. Please press star one on your telephone keypad.

It appears we have no additional questions at this time, so I'll pass the floor back over to Mr. Agnew for any additional concluding remarks.

Thanks, operator, and thanks to everybody for joining today's call. If you have any further questions or follow ups.

Please feel free to reach out.

Thank you ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation and you may disconnect your lines at this time.

Okay.

Yes.

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Yeah.