Q1 2023 Centerspace Earnings Call

Speaker 1: Thank you all for joining. I would like to welcome you to Centerspace Q1 2023 earnings call.

Speaker 1: All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise and after the speakers remarks we will conduct a question and answer session.

Speaker 1: If you ask a question at this time please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind any time and would like to remove your request to speak please press star two.

Speaker 1: And for operator assistance anytime, it's the star zero key. Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Jo McAnish. So please go ahead, Jo.

Speaker 2: CenterSpace's Form 10Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2023, was filed with the SEC yesterday after the market closed. Additionally, our earnings release and supplemental disclosure package have been posted to our website at centerspacehomes.com and filed on Form 8K.

Speaker 2: It's important to note that today's remarks will include statements about our business outlook and other forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties discussed in our filing under the section titled Risk Factors and in our other filings with the FCC. We cannot guarantee that any forward-looking statement will materialize, and your caution not to...

Speaker 3: With me this morning is Bharat Patel, our Chief Financial Officer. Notably missing this morning is Mark Decker, who led CenterSpace for the last six years and transitioned out of the CEO role at the end of March.

Speaker 3: Mark is a tremendous leader who is key in building the foundation of our culture and drove a strategy that provided our team opportunities to learn and grow. Mark's accomplishments over the last six years are many, and I know Mark and the board have confidence in the opportunity ahead for CSR. I share that confidence and am both humbled and excited to lead the company into its next chapter.

Speaker 3: Same-store revenue growth was 10.5% driven by increases in scheduled rent, leading to NOI growth of 11% over the prior comparable quarter. The expense pressure we experienced in 2022 is leveling off. The first quarter same-store expenses were flat over Q4 of 2022.

Speaker 3: a sign of easing inflation and efficacy of our cost control measures. Our positive operational results, coupled with the impact of the CEO transition and associated reduction of G&A, give us confidence that we can reiterate our guidance for this year.

Speaker 3: Barav will provide more detail in his remarks.

Speaker 3: With respect to our revenue trends, in the first quarter we achieved 2.5% increases on SameStore New Lease tradeouts and 5.8% increases on SameStore renewals. This leads us to a 3.9% blended rent increase in Q1. These trends continued in April with 4.5% increases on SameStore New Lease tradeouts and 5.8% increases on SameStore.

Speaker 3: 5.1% increases on same-store renewals, which results in a 4.7% blended run increase in April .

Speaker 3: We are experiencing broad strength across our markets, which are differentiated by our mid- and mountain-west presence. As positive leasing in 2020 demonstrated, our market exposure provides good stability and consistency in times of uncertainty, and we are seeing that play out again today.

Speaker 3: Hallmarks of our portfolio are lower supply, low unemployment, and the affordability of rent, with our average monthly rental rate in the first quarter of $1450 and the portfolio rent to income of our resident households is just under 25%. With respect to supply, weighted average units under construction is 8.2% of inventory in our institutional markets of Denver and many other cities.

Speaker 3: we continue to like Denver and believe that the fundamentals of the Mountain West are holding up.

Speaker 3: Transaction volume in Metro Denver was down significantly at 69% in Q1 compared to Q1 2022. And though velocity has tapered, we continue seeing deep competition on well-located opportunities.

Speaker 3: We have been quiet on the acquisitions front since Q3 of 2022, but we are very pleased with the disposition of nine communities that closed during the first quarter. In keeping with our strategy to improve our portfolio construction and exposure, and thus our earnings quality, we disposed of communities in the St. Cloud, Omaha, and Minneapolis markets that had lower rent and growth profiles and higher costs of operations.

Speaker 3: The nine communities had an average monthly revenue per unit of $944 in Q1 2023 compared to our post-sale portfolio average monthly revenue per unit of $1378, and the pricing we achieved was a 6% cap rate based on 2022 NOI for those communities.

Speaker 3: Given the dearth of acquisition opportunities and our stock price trading at an implied cap rate around 7.5%, we also used $6.7 million of those proceeds to buy back our stock at an average of approximately $54.17, a price we feel confident about given our ability to execute sales of our less desirable assets at a cap rate inside of where we are trading.

Speaker 3: We believe in our portfolio, its diversity and stability, and our internal opportunity to enhance our portfolio quality. For these reasons, our stock is a good investment for us at this time. Now I'll turn it over to Bharav to discuss our overall financial results in 2023 outlook. Thanks, Ann, and good morning, everyone.

Speaker 4: In my comments today, I will review results for the first quarter of 2023, highlight actions we have recently taken to optimize our balance sheet and liquidity, and discuss our outlook for 2023. Last night, we reported Core FFO for the quarter ending March 31, 2023 of $1.07 per diluted share.

Speaker 4: which was in line with our expectations and driven by another strong quarter of operating performance, with same-store NOI increasing 11% year-over-year. As Anne mentioned in her remarks, leasing trends remain positive across our portfolio showcasing the stability of our markets.

Speaker 4: Please note that G&A expenses during the quarter included one-time expenses and charges totaling $3.2 million related to the CEO transition which we have excluded from Core FFO.

Speaker 4: Turning to our balance sheet, we took several steps during and subsequent to the first quarter of 2023 to enhance our balance sheet strength and maximize financial flexibility.

Speaker 4: First, we use the initial proceeds from the asset sales to fully repay the $100 million loan they put in place at the end of last year.

Speaker 4: We received approximately $48 million of proceeds from the sale subsequent to quarter end, which we promptly used to pay down the outstanding balance on our line of credit.

Speaker 4: Second, we further reduced our floating rate exposure by repaying another $90 million of our line of credit balance with proceeds from fixed-rate secure financing we closed last week.

Speaker 4: The financing has a term of 12 years at a fixed rate of 5.04%, which represented a spread of under 140 basis points on the then existing 10-year treasury rate.

Speaker 4: We are extremely pleased with the execution as we were able to close it ahead of schedule despite the disruption in the capital markets caused by the onset of the banking crisis. Pro forma for the impact of those actions, our floating rate exposure has been reduced to approximately $20 million or less than 2% of our total current debt outstanding of approximately 800,000.

Speaker 4: which as I mentioned earlier has been almost fully repaid with proceeds from the asset sales and refinancing..

Speaker 4: With less than $25 million of our total debt outstanding coming due in the next 24 months and pro forma leverage of less than seven times net debt to adjusted EBITDA, we believe we are in one of the strongest positions we have ever been from a balance sheet perspective.

Speaker 4: And we are able to immediately leverage the strength of our balance sheet by repurchasing $6.7 million of our own stock at an average price of $54.17 per share, which we believe is a significant discount to the underlying value of our portfolio as Anne previously discussed. Now, I will discuss our financial outlook for 2023, which is presented on the

Speaker 4: from Core FFO, leading our expectations for Core FFO relatively unchanged.

Speaker 4: Excluding the one-time charge, the impact of the transition is GNA's savings of approximately a million dollars for 2023, and we are currently determining how much of the potential savings may need to be reallocated as we reorganize the support functions.

Speaker 4: Our strong first quarter results and potential GNA savings give us confidence that we will be above the midpoint of our current guidance range for Core FFO.

Speaker 4: We will provide an updated outlook next quarter which comprehensively incorporates the impact of operating activity during the first half of the year and any G&A savings we expect to realize. We will provide an updated outlook next quarter which comprehensively incorporates the impact of operating activity during the first half of the year and any G&A savings we expect to realize.

Speaker 4: To conclude, I would like to congratulate Mark for his many accomplishments as CEO of CenterSpace and wish him all the very best in his future endeavors.

Speaker 4: I'm thankful for the opportunity to work with him over the past year and a half and have greatly benefited from his leadership and guidance during my time at Center Space.

Speaker 4: As Anne said, we do have a tremendous opportunity ahead of us and I believe we are very well positioned to capitalize on the opportunity under her leadership. I look forward to assisting her in shaping the next chapter in the evolution of center space.

Speaker 4: And with that, I will turn it over to the operator to open it up for questions.

Speaker 1: Thank you.

Speaker 1: If you would like to ask a question, please press star then 1 on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, please press star 2.

Speaker 1: We have the first question from Brad Heffern of RBC Kabatou Markets.

Speaker 5: Yeah, thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. And first of all, congratulations on your first call as CEO . I'm wondering if you can talk about your vision for the company and call out any potential differences in either focus or strategy versus how things were done under Mark's leadership. Alright.

Speaker 3: Yeah, good morning, Brad. Thank you. I think, you know, I've been here for six years and really worked closely with Mark on the strategy of the company and how we execute. And so we're not expecting a lot of huge changes. I do think that as we moved into 2023, as a team, we refocused our...

Speaker 3: you know, execution standards and accountability systems in line with some of the transformation we had done to our back office with respect to technology enhancements and investments that we had made over the past couple of years. So I do think it feels a little bit different. That was planned as part of both the

Speaker 3: 2023 goals when Mark was here and as part of the transition that we would really accelerate our focus on you know our internal opportunity to better the company and better the results and then also strategically you know really think about incremental improvements to continue to enhance both the platform and our portfolio construction.

Speaker 5: It might feel a little bit different, but it's all kind of part of the same plan and vision. Okay, thank you for that. And then on the repurchase, obviously, you did a little bit in the first quarter. I'm curious how you think about doing more in the context of it, either increasing leverage if you do it on the balance sheet or potentially reducing scale if you did it through dispositions.

Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a great question. I mean, our approach has been to be very judicious. We really want to keep an eye on the balance sheet and be very careful with how we use that balance sheet and what the best investment for us is at the time.

Speaker 3: I do think as we guided at the beginning of the year and reiterated, we do have a couple more dispositions that we would like to undertake this year and that will have an impact both on our ability, some additional pay down of debt and potentially make sure we have enough dry powder to take advantage of any external opportunities that come our way.

Speaker 5: Okay, and then finally, on the rent growth side of things, what's been the change in market rent in your market so far this year, and can you talk about where that sits relative to what the expectation was in guidance?

Speaker 3: So I think we're running a little bit ahead on market rent of where where our expectations were. But you know, with only one quarter behind us, that's not a lot of our lease expirations. I think the first quarter is actually our smallest lease expiration profile at 16%. So I think we're running a little bit ahead on market rent of where our expectations were at 16%. But you know, we're running a little bit ahead on market rent of where our expectations were at 16%.

Speaker 3: And so, we really want to get into the meat of the leasing season. We feel good about the April results, as you probably noted in our remarks. April was a little bit ahead on new lease trade outs than the first quarter. So that bodes well. It remains to be seen. The big chunk of leasing comes in the middle of the year for us and that's when we're really gonna see the projections that we have in our guidance, our full year projections. So running a little bit ahead of them at the beginning of the year.

Speaker 5: It doesn't tell us too much about how the rest of the year is going to go. Okay, thank you. Thank you. We now have Barry Oxford of Colliers. Great, thanks guys. Just to build on that question,

Speaker 6: … regarding debt pay down. You –

Speaker 6: clearly have taken care of any short term maturities, but what type of debt would you be going after in your capital stack when you guys do disposition should you choose to pay down more debt? Yeah, I mean.

Speaker 4: Barry, this is Barav. Yep, yep. So we, I mean, I think as we look at dispositions, and mentioned we have a couple more dispositions included in our guidance, we do expect that as we go through the year, we will have a little more floating rate debt on the line of credit that we would be able to pay down. So that is really the only debt that we are looking to pay down.

Speaker 4: Because the fixed rate debt is fixed and you know, it doesn't really give you a lot of flexibility in terms of paydowns So we would be looking to pay down more floating rate debt Which we expect will kind of ramp up a little bit as we go through the year So with the planned dispositions, that would be the goal.

Speaker 6: Okay, great. And then, Anne, question for you. With the 7.5 implied cap rate, do you have a cap rate of 7.5?

Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we are not seeing the acquisitions at that level right now that would be accretive. I mean, we're still seeing in our targeted markets, you know, sub four cap transaction or sub five cap transaction, sorry. And I do think you're right that are the best use of our capital right now is to look internally, not just our stock, but also our value add program where we, you know, are really getting the returns that we envisioned. And so, you know, as the year progresses, we're hopeful that the transaction market picks up and there's some leveling off of price, there's a pretty big disparity right now between the bid and ask. And as that, you know, maybe works itself out, we think that acquisitions hopefully will become a little bit more.

Speaker 3: what's behind that? Yeah, so you know, we have quite a few projects in the pipeline now. And with respect to the pipeline, it's always growing, because, you know, four years ago, we buy an asset that was built in 2010, that looks clearly stable that that right now is becoming, you know, coming into the value add pipeline.

Speaker 3: So, and you're right on, we have about 25 million scheduled for this year. Our value add pipeline is not only unit renovations, it's also things like additions of smart home technology which that can affect the entire portfolio. So all 14,000 units are ripe for that, those kind of investments.

Speaker 3: So I feel good if I look at both the pipeline now, which I think we have about a little over 1,000 units kind of under renovation or being touched, that will continue to change and grow. So over time it's never ending, never ending pipeline as product gets older or new enhancements come out that we're able to.

Speaker 7: any given year, given your staffing, given your subcontractors, etc. I mean how much more can you do than a thousand units in a year?

Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, we would really have to ramp up on the staffing side and that really increases the execution rate. So we feel really good about 25 million. To the extent that might get increased, it would have to be a large kind of portfolio-wide implementation such as a portion of smart home technology.

Speaker 3: And that's not, we're taking that kind of rolling through the portfolio rather than doing it all at once. So we feel really good about the $25 million. I think we feel great about where that puts us with respect to the dispositions this year and how we fund those. So I don't expect that there's going to be a big ramp up past that amount.

Speaker 7: Okay and then what's your exposure these days going looking forward to utility costs? I know that you guys have put a bunch of stuff in place over the last year or so but how much you know when you look forward and do you know the fall of 23 and into 24.

Speaker 7: should your exposure there be reduced as a result of all these programs?

Speaker 3: Great question. As you probably recall, last year we started rolling out in our ratio utility billing system rubs the GAAS portion, which will decrease the volatility of our own expenses with the offsetting revenue. At the end of the first quarter, we're 26% of the way through the portfolio on rolling that out.

And so we really feel like there, as the year goes on, and particularly as we get to fall, we should be about 75% of the way through the fall, maybe even 80 given the larger lease exposure. And that's really gonna help us generate that offsetting revenue to mitigate the volatility and utility costs that we saw, particularly in 2022.

had already been part of our RUBS program across the portfolio.

Okay, thanks guys, appreciate the time. Thank you.

Thanks guys, appreciate the time. Thank you. You now have nice and chill of bed.

Hey, good morning everyone and congrats. Could you talk a little bit more about your revenue management strategy over the next few months? And is the plan to continue pushing rate or really focus more on maintaining occupancy?

significantly which really makes keeping our residents in place and the resident experience to drive retention particularly important as we balance those two factors. Awesome. Thank you for your time.

We now have Buck Horn of Raymond James. Hey, good morning. Thanks, everyone. I wanted to give some extra color on bad debt trends. You know, if there's been any changes recently in delinquency patterns or skips and evicts, and was there any benefit, you know, in the quarter from lower bad debt? Buck, this is Burab. Yes, I mean, we do see stabilization in those trends. So with respect to the first quarter, bad debt was about 25 basis points, which is in line with historical averages. And that did benefit us from a year-over-year perspective, because last year it was higher.

Then the 25 basis points, so we do see some return to pre-COVID trends from a bad debt perspective. And, you know, at 25 basis points, it's slightly ahead of where we had kind of projected it. But again, bad debt tends to be volatile, so we feel pretty good about what we've kind of factored into the numbers at this point.

All right, appreciate that. Very helpful. And post the portfolio disposition here of those nine properties.

How is the CapEx profile of the remaining portfolio changed? What would be a good run rate, would you say, for a kind of annualized recurring CapEx for the remaining portfolio?

Well, when we guided and gave our per door number at the beginning of the year, we had estimated in those dispositions. So I think that guidance remains unchanged about 1100, 1150.

adore. We had already factored that in when we made our projections. It is helping. Appreciate that it is helping getting getting some of those older properties off of the books.

Understood. Understood. And is the elevated level of turn costs, is that just a function of kind of a sole legacy effect of COVID trends or you know?

you know, just very extended tenant days and

When will turn costs kind of normalize as those units come back available? Yeah, I think that the driver of high turn costs is really the increasing inflation on services in particular and also cost of goods. So you know, we really saw that last year. And then also, you know, we saw that the driver of high turn costs was really the increasing inflation on services in particular. So you know, we saw that the driver of high turn costs was really the increasing inflation on services in particular.

Rob, did you have a comment on that? Yeah, I mean last year was also elevated because we had some units from overall turnover costs were elevated because we had units from the KMS portfolio that were turning for the first time. A lot of those units were occupied for a long, long time by...

In our guidance, we have factored turn costs being lower this year versus last year, and a lot of it is a result of some of the cost control measures that we've put in place, and a lot of that is a reflection of some of these units that we've already turned last year.

you

Got it. Very helpful. Thanks for all that, Carl. I appreciate it.

Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask any more questions, please press star than one on your telephone keypad now.

confirm we have had no further questions registered so I'd like to hand it back to the management team.

Well, thank you all for joining us today and a special thanks to our team who are helping us get these great results. And we'll see you hopefully all at NAHREES.

Thank you all for joining. I can confirm this does conclude today's call. Please have a lovely rest of your day and you may now disconnect your line.