Q1 2023 QuidelOrtho Corp /DE/ Earnings Call
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Prudel Auto First Calls, Earth23 financial results, conference call and web fast. At this time, all participants lines are in the Simone mode. Those of you participating in one conference call that we are an opportunity for your questions at the end of today's prepared remarks.
Speaker 2: Please note that the conference floor is being recorded. Know what your retake of the conference hall will be available on the company's website shortly after this call.
Speaker 2: I'm now going to turn the call over to Brian Brottmire, Vice President of Investor Relations. Brian ? Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Kuala Del Orto's first quarter financial results conference call. With me today to discuss our financial results are Doug Bryant, Kuala Del Orto's president and CEO .
Speaker 3: and Joe Busky, quite a lot of those chief financial officer. This conference call is being simultaneously broadcast on the Investor Relations page of our website and a version of today's presentation can be downloaded there. Before we begin, I will cover our safe harbor season. The statements we will make during this call about the company's future expectations, plans, and prospects.
Speaker 3: are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Security's litigation reform act of 1995, which provide the safe harbor for such statements.
Speaker 3: For looking statements are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties, and other factors that can cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these to one.
Speaker 3: These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors under, identified under risk factors in our annual report on form 10K, filed with the SEC on February 23, 2023, and subsequent reports filed with the SEC.
Speaker 3: Please refer to our SEC filings for more detailed discussion of forward-liven statements and the risks and uncertainties of such statements.
Speaker 3: We cannot assure you that the forward-looking statements we make or are implied by our statements will be realized furthermore, such forward-looking statements represent management's judgment and expectations as of today. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements or any time-sensitive information to reflect future events, developments, or change circumstances, or for any other reason. Also, during today's call to facilitate a comparison of the company's operating performance from the first quarter of 2022,
Speaker 3: Before the Quaidel Ortho combination to the first quarter of 2023, we will be discussing supplemental revenue and other supplemental adjusted operating results. As if Quaidel and Ortho have been combined for the applicable periods.
Speaker 3: We refer to this information as our supplemental combined information. Certain supplemental combined information as well as certain other items we will discuss do not conform to US generally accepted accounting principles or GAP. Please see slide three for a list of non- GAAP measures .
Speaker 3: Reconciliation of these non- GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the appendix to the investor presentation and press release issued this afternoon, both of which are available on the investor relations page of our quite of the quite out ortho website.
Speaker 3: Lastly, unless stated otherwise, all year-over-year revenue growth rates, including revenue growth ranges, given on today's call, are given on a comparable constant currency basis.
Speaker 3: our performance in the first quarter, discuss our areas of focus, and the clear opportunities for growth in 2023 and beyond.
Speaker 3: Looking at our first quarter, we again exceeded expectations reporting revenue of roughly $846 million with non-respiratory revenue up 7% on a supplemental combined basis.
Speaker 3: Our respiratory revenue, which began to accelerate from mid Q3 and throughout Q4 last year due to the early and severe onset of the respiratory season.
Speaker 3: with an integrated install base up 11% in automation up 24%. We saw sizable gains across all major geographic regions, notably in North America, as well as in China, following the suspension of their zero COVID policies and subsequent recovery for non-COVID laboratory testing. We reduced our instrument backlog and our last business by more than 20% enabling us to ship more instruments than previously anticipated in the quarter.
Speaker 3: these shift instruments. Once installed, validated, and online, we'll have a modest positive impact in 2023.
Speaker 3: setting us up for 2024 growth. Continued progress on this instrument backlog is due in large part to the success of our operations team.
Speaker 3: which has expanded output across multiple product lines and is creating resiliency and redundancy within our supply chain while driving sustainable process improvements.
Speaker 3: This is a big deal and I'm proud of their work thus far. In addition, new customer orders increased by approximately 11% from the end of Q4 to the end of Q1, which is the leading indicator of strong reagent growth later in the second half of 2023 and 2024.
Speaker 3: Second, our point of care business exceeded our expectations in the quarter despite the respiratory season pull forward from Q1 into Q4.
Speaker 3: We shipped more COVID tests to the government against the two contracts we had on hand and with the public health emergency order set to expire this month.
Speaker 3: Consumers acquired significantly more COVID-19 at home testing kits in the first quarter than expected.
Speaker 3: It's important to note that in this endemic phase,
Speaker 3: We're operating in a new world. We've undergone a paradigm shift where consumers are more in control of their healthcare decisions than ever before. Consumers and lawmakers formed a greater appreciation for the value of diagnostic testing.
Speaker 3: The centralization proliferated as physician offices added point of care systems and learned of the value these systems provided through the speed to diagnosis. This resulted in more informed treatment decisions before patients left the office setting. Ultimately, increased practice demand for a broader menu of point of care tests.
Speaker 3: Moreover, the greater availability of at-home tests led consumers to learn how to perform nasal swabs, read test results, and obtain medical care via virtual doctor visits.
Speaker 3: Third, in our transfusion medicine business, revenues were down 8% from the year ago period.
Speaker 3: due to strong revenue in the prior year and a broader macro trend of declining blood donations in the United States. Blood donations at business hosted blood drives were down by 50 percent in 2022 from 2019. An extreme weather across the US in recent months has had a compounding effect.
Speaker 3: business declined 75% compared to the first quarter of 2022 due to weakness in our Lyra sales as higher volume laboratory COVID-19 testing declined.
Speaker 3: Offset modestly by revenue from early Savannah adopters. While we recognize there are broader macroeconomic and supply chain challenges,
Speaker 3: Our combined organization has been agile, innovative, and unrelenting. We are one of the larger pure play diagnostic companies with a broad portfolio spanning the diagnostics continuum.
Speaker 3: from labs, transfusion medicine, and molecular diagnostic point of care with a total addressable market of $48 billion. The entire healthcare sector is facing long-term secular trends from the aging population and the surge of chronic conditions and diseases.
Speaker 3: to increasing global access to care, escalating costs of health care and emerging infectious diseases. If you combine these trends with the shift to patient empowerment and the increase in self-care, there is a significant increase in global demand for global testing that could accelerate market growth far beyond the 5-7% market growth rate.
Speaker 3: that we had previously forecast for the market, which boathed well for the entire diagnostics market segment.
Speaker 3: and for our long-term growth expectation of high single digits.
Speaker 3: We are witnessing crucial developments in our immediate industry, such as the miniaturization of devices, consumerization of care, and cost reductions.
Speaker 3: technological advancements are unlocking new biomarkers.
Speaker 3: and advancing proteomics, liquid biopsy, and anti-microbial resistance capabilities. New care modalities are also emerging, including remote monitoring and both synchronous and asynchronous care. Cost-effectiveness, supply chain and scalability.
Speaker 3: will remain essential for all of us, but make no mistake.
Speaker 3: Diagnostics is evolving rapidly and is the place to be. In the meantime, we remain focused on our three near-term growth drivers, the vitro system and our last business, the Sophia platform within the point of care business.
Speaker 3: and the Savannah Moleco platform in our molecular diagnostics business.
Speaker 3: These are the three growth engines that matter most to us in the near term, and we are executing at speed on each of these programs.
Speaker 3: Growth in our labs business is fueled by the placement of our integrated analyzers and the pull-through of higher growth, higher margin amino assays.
Speaker 3: alongside our historical strength and clump chemistry.
Speaker 3: Our focus on mid and high throughput hospital labs, where we offer the lowest cost of ownership in the market, coupled with our award-winning customer service, have further added to our strengths.
Speaker 3: Looking ahead, we have 20 to 25 new and refreshed assays planned for launch by the end of 2024.
Speaker 3: On the instrument side, we continue to make progress toward a planned refresh of our vitro systems and software.
Speaker 3: new automation and informatics launches and the rollout of VTRO's duo, which is an easy to implement VTRO's automation solution that is faster than traditional feature-rich automation solutions.
Speaker 3: accelerate both integrated and automation growth from new customers and new to automation current customers.
Speaker 3: Our next growth priority is the development of assays for the Sophia platform.
Speaker 3: with over 87,000 cumulative instrument placements globally, this is an incredible asset that should be leveraged fully.
Speaker 3: In the meantime, we expect our existing Sophia essays to continue to drive point of care market share gains in the respiratory disease category. While we continue to augment our Sophia offering through research and development efforts.
Speaker 3: that expand single and combination assay menu options for our customers.
Speaker 3: Finally, the launch of our revolutionary Savannah Molecular Platform is a near-term priority.
Speaker 3: Savannah uses real-time PCR and syndromic panels to address a variety of pain points across the diagnostic continuum.
Speaker 3: The platform offers speed and flexibility and is easy to use, making it suitable for use in multiple customer environments, including physician office labs, emergency departments, pharmacies, and urgent care settings, as well as hospital and reference labs. Savannah, it's currently available throughout Europe .
Speaker 3: with plans to commercialize worldwide upon additional regulatory clearances. We're anticipating an expanded global launch ahead of the next respiratory season.
Speaker 3: We are pursuing parallel paths to and 510 clearance. Progressing toward a late Q2 submission. With a follow up 5 10-K shortly thereafter.
Speaker 3: We are currently in a stocking position for both the Savannah instrument and the RVP4 cartridge. And our second cartridge manufacturing line is in the final stages of validation as we work to build inventory in anticipation of Savannah's launch in the US following regulatory clearance.
Speaker 3: Our initial menu includes our RVP4 respiratory viral panel followed by an HESV-VZV lesion panel, RVP11,
Speaker 3: A panel for sexually transmitted infections, including chlamydia, gonorrhea, microplasma, genitalia, and trichomonas vaginalis.
Speaker 3: plus two gastrointestinal panel, one bacterial and or viral, and the second parasitic.
Speaker 3: a pharyngitis panel, and a vaginitis panel.
Speaker 3: We focused our offerings on syndrome, my testing needs to take advantage of the unique features of Savannah, including rapid turnaround time, simple workflow, and test flexibility allowing more, clinically relevant information to be generated closer to the patient.
Speaker 3: in a time frame that can impact treatment.
Speaker 3: So, Savannah's coming, the platform is robust, and the total addressable market is huge.
Speaker 3: the outlook is exciting. Beyond these near-term priorities, our ability to serve the full diagnostics continuum, from home to hospital, lab to clinic.
Speaker 3: unlocks additional growth opportunities for us. We're the sixth largest company in the space, but we offer competitive differentiation in the market. As more customers demand converging capabilities and connected systems, we offer a more efficient and more efficient way to manage their growth opportunities.
Speaker 3: We are strategically positioned to explore and capitalize on these emerging needs with over 100 active R&D clinical and regulatory projects underway.
Speaker 3: We intend to be just as prolific in product development as we have been in the past.
Speaker 3: In terms of product differentiation, our dry slide technology delivers higher first-pass yields, greater instrument uptime, faster turnaround time, and the lowest cost of ownership in the mid and high throughput market. In our point of care business, our long history has a trusted leader in the respiratory
Speaker 3: global leader in market share in the patient testing market with trusted partner status and decades long relationships with loyal customers. We are well positioned to expand access to a safe and reliable supply of the life saving gifted blood.
Speaker 3: Finally, in molecular diagnostics, we are focused on regulatory approvals and ramping up our manufacturing lines for our Savannah molecular platform.
Speaker 3: Across all four businesses, we are steadfast in our efforts to provide diagnostics access to more patients in more places.
Speaker 3: around the world. We are nearing the one-year anniversary of combining two great companies.
Speaker 3: Our thoughtful and disciplined approach to integrating the two organizations is proceeding.
Speaker 3: At a healthy pace we are focused on reducing complexity enhancing our culture and Executing on the initiatives that matter most Cross-selling has materialized and the strength of our combined organization is clear We continue to take out unnecessary costs enhance our productivity
Speaker 3: increase our profitability.
Speaker 3: We identified $90 million in cost synergies over the next three years and believe there could be even more upside.
Speaker 3: We exited 2022 at a $30 million savings run rate and continue to execute on additional opportunities.
Speaker 3: We are confident we can exceed our 2023 target of $30 million. In summary, quite a little or so delivered excellent results in the first quarter of 2023.
Speaker 3: which is a true reflection of the strength of our combined organization.
Speaker 3: Our business model is solid and durable and our teams across the globe are functioning extremely well and delivering results every day. We're poised to see and act on leveraging leveraging mega trends in a large and growing diagnostics market segment.
Speaker 3: With that, I'll turn the call over to Joe to further discuss our 1st quarter financial results and our guidance for the rest of the year. Joe. Okay, thanks Doug and good afternoon everyone before I discuss our financial results for the 1st quarter. I want to remind you that to facilitate a year over year comparison of the company's operating performance, all growth rates.
Speaker 4: that I referenced are presented on a supplemental combined basis as if CODEL and ORTHO has been combined for the applicable periods and may be referred to as supplemental combined information. As Doug just mentioned, we exited 2022 with strong momentum that continued into the first quarter of 2023. Starting with a breakdown of Q1 revenue on slide 8.
Speaker 4: Non-reparatory revenue grew 7% in constant currency to 581 million, driven by strength in our lab's business unit. The growth was strong in our lab's business unit, even excluding the approximate $21 million settlement award from a third party related to one of our collaboration agreements.
Speaker 4: Respiratory revenue totaled $266 million in the quarter, including $216 million in COVID-related revenue.
Speaker 4: Respiratory revenue was stronger than expected despite the earlier respiratory season that pulled forward revenue in the Q4 last year versus the normal Q1 peak respiratory season.
Speaker 4: In total revenue was down 44% to 846 million, reflecting the strong flu and COVID related revenue in the first quarter of 2022.
Speaker 4: The strength of our COVID-related revenue a year ago highlights what we and others in the diagnostic space have been saying for several quarters now. We believe COVID-19 is transitioning to an endemic state. And will continue to circulate like any other respiratory disease and appropriately we now bucket COVID-19 revenue with our other respiratory revenue.
Speaker 4: Turning to our quarterly performance by geography on a constant currency basis and excluding respiratory revenue, all major geographic regions grew nicely in the quarter. North America revenue grew 5%, EMEA grew 4%, China grew 21%, and our other region, which includes Latin America, Japan, and other specific markets, grew 9%.
Speaker 4: North America, which is our largest geography by revenue delivered notable non-respiratory revenue growth driven by the strong underlying performance of our lab's business.
Speaker 4: Looking at North America respiratory, during the quarter, we shipped a total of $143 million on the two previously discussed government contracts for Quick View at home COVID-19 tests.
Speaker 4: We ship the final 4M dollars in April and don't anticipate any further government revenue for the remainder of the year.
Speaker 4: The revenue for these contracts was more profitable than the public contract pricing may imply, as we were able to use some shorter dated product in reverse, a previously recognized inventory reserve.
Speaker 4: In EMEA, solid non-respiratory revenue growth was driven by labs, partially offset by transfusion medicine. The solid growth in the corridor was particularly encouraging to see given that we shipped a large number of instruments to the region which take longer to get through customs and begin pulling through consumable revenue.
Speaker 4: Our China region, which makes up about 10% of our total company revenue, saw a surge of demand at hospitals that drove more than 25% growth in our last business in the quarter, following the end of the COVID-19 lockdown at the end of 2022.
Speaker 4: This strength in revenue included both a COVID-19 halo effect as well as durable demand for both clinical, chemistry, and immunoassays as patient visits to the hospital resume and selective surgery volumes increase.
Speaker 4: Importantly, double-digit growth of our triage products and the fast market penetration of the newly launched Sophia II within our Point of Care business unit are the most quantifiable demonstration of revenue synergies to date.
Speaker 4: Now, turning to our Q1 non-respiratory revenue by category, recurring revenue, which includes reagent service and other consumables grew 6%.
Speaker 4: Instrument revenue grew 26% as instrument demand was robust and we worked down our open labs instrument orders by over 20% to approximately 500 instruments from 650 at the end of 2022. And while global supply chain challenges appear to be easing and we are cautiously optimistic that we'll be able to keep up this unexpected pace of instrument
Speaker 4: One quarter doesn't make a trend, so we continue to expect elevated open orders to persist into early 2024 as we work toward our goal of a normalized 150 open orders.
Speaker 4: Now, turning to slide 9, I'd like to comment on our first quarter financial performance below revenue versus the prior year, again, on a supplemental combined basis.
Speaker 4: Gross profit margin for the quarter was 53.8%, including 110 basis point positive impact from the previously mentioned settlement award. And it's consistent with our full year expectation for low to mid 50 gross margins.
Speaker 4: The gross margin is down from prior year to a more normalized level, largely due to the slow end of COVID related revenue as we transition from a pandemic state to an endemic state. Adjusted EBITDA also declined year over year again due to the transition from a COVID-19 pandemic state to an endemic state.
Speaker 4: resulting in adjusted EBITDA of $245.3 million ahead of our expectations due to the strong revenue. Adjusted EBITDA margin contracted year over year to 29%, which includes 150 basis point positive impact from the previously mentioned settlement award, again, better than our expectations.
Speaker 4: Net interest expense for the period was $36 million, an increase of $5 million versus the prior years as anticipated due to the modest increase in the average outstanding debt balances related to the combination.
Speaker 4: Our provision for income taxes was 33 million compared to 149 million for the prior year period. This represents the first quarter adjusted tax rate of 21.5% up from the prior period due to discrete items.
Speaker 4: And our adjusted earnings per fully diluted share for the quarter were $1.80 compared to $8.03 in the first quarter of 22 on a supplemental combined basis. The decrease in EPS was again driven by an exceptionally strong prior year period of COVID transitioning to an endemic state. Turning to cash flow and balance sheet on slide 10 in the first quarter of 22 on a supplemental combined basis.
Speaker 4: We estimate recurring free cash flow to be a hundred and fifty seven million Which is a hundred and thirty percent of adjusted net income and sixty four percent of our adjusted EBITDA for the quarter In terms of capital deployments in the first quarter. We paid down fifty two million of debt
Speaker 4: working towards the 206 million minimum payments in 2023, and while we did not buy back any shares in the quarter, we intend to maintain a balanced and opportunistic approach to share with purchases, while also continuing to prioritize our debt pay down going forward.
Speaker 4: Notably, following the end of the quarter, we made our final $40 million payment to Abbott for the $680 million purchase of the Alire cardiometabolic assets.
Speaker 4: We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalence and marketable securities of $431 million, and total debt of $2.6 billion. We ended with $2.2 times net debt to EBITDA on a supplemental combined basis.
Speaker 4: And as COVID related revenue declines to an endemic level over the remainder of the year, we expect leverage to increase up to approximately 2 and a half by the end of the year. The deleveraging is a top priority for us and we have a goal to be at or below 2 times net leveraged by the end of 2024.
Speaker 4: while maintaining flexibility for strategic M&A opportunities. Now, turning to our fiscal 2023 guidance on slide 11, first I'd like to provide some broader contests on our outlook. Lab instrument supply issues are expected to continue to alleviate as we move through the year, which along with the continued recovery in China or expected to drive solid growth.
Speaker 4: that is back half loaded. The end of the public health emergency calls consumers to buy over the counter COVID-19 test, while the test was still covered by insurers, pulling forward respiratory revenue into the first half. The end of the public health emergency calls consumers to buy over the counter COVID-19 test, while the test was still covered by insurers, pulling forward respiratory revenue into the first half.
Speaker 4: Savannah sales in Europe are expected to ramp as we move through the year, which along with expected US volumes after anticipated receipt of regulatory clearance are expected to drive meaningful revenue in the back half of the year.
Speaker 4: In light of these dynamics, we are raising our fiscal 2023 guidance as follows. Total revenue of $2.87 to $3.18 billion, which is up from our prior guidance of $2.8 to $3.1 billion.
Speaker 4: Break it down a little further, non- respiratory revenue is expected to grow four and a half to six and a half percent on a constant currency basis to $2.26 to $2.31 billion compared to our prior guidance of four to six percent growth or $2.21 to $2.25 billion. Respiratory included COVID revenue of $300 to $500 more to them.
Speaker 4: 27.2% to 28.3% for Adjusted EBITDA in the range of 815 to 865 million, which is up from our prior guidance of 800 to 859. Adjusted diluted EPS is now expected to be in the range of $5.15 to $5.70 up from our prior guidance of 5.
Speaker 4: As previously discussed and consistently prior to years, the first and the fourth quarters are seasonally the strongest quarters of the year for us. We expect Q2, 23 margins to reflect the lowest revenue quarter of the year and the investments we are making ahead of the Savannah launch in the U.S.
Speaker 4: Net interest expense continues to be expected in the range of $145 to $150 million for the full year, and we continue to expect the full year adjusted tax rate to be approximately 23.5%.
Speaker 4: We continue to expect recurring free cash flow to be at the low end of the 50 to 65% of adjusted EBITDA, which translates into more than 100% of adjusted net income.
Speaker 4: And finally full year diluted weighted average share count of 67.2 million.
Speaker 3: With that, I will now turn the call back to Doug to make a few summary comments. Thank you, Joe. I'll now conclude the prepared remarks portion of the call by recognizing my quite a ortho colleagues for the ongoing passion collaboration and engagements that they bring to work each and every day. They are the core to our mission.
Speaker 3: transforming the power of diagnostics into a healthier future.
Speaker 3: while improving countless lives along the way. I'm very pleased with our strong track record and performance in the first quarter with the transformation of healthcare and shifting diagnostics trends, the opportunities ahead of us are plentiful and significant. It's a great time to be involved in the diagnostic industry and it's a great time.
Speaker 2: to be here at Quiet Out Orthon. Now let's open up the line for Q&A. Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press staff followed by one on your telephone key mat. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press staff followed by two. If I'm prepared to ask your question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally.
Speaker 2: Our first question comes from Conor Mutt-Nemara from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Hey guys, please put the question at the same place here and you can graph that on a solid quarter. Just two quick questions, one for the general and the other. Can you remind us when you have a quarter without large box shimms like the bid?
Speaker 2: How does that flow through the P&L? And then Doug, just on the Savannah launch, what gives you confidence that you'll be able to get the markets up for the respiratory season? Let's get. Connor, can you repeat the first part of that question? It was a little bit of background noise. I'm sorry. Sorry.
Speaker 2: Sorry about that. You have a quarter with a large shipment of boxes like you do, boxes coming out of backbones. How does that flow through the P&L? I know you don't put the entire revenue in the first quarter. So just trying to figure out when does revenue start flowing through the P&L.
Speaker 4: Okay, I got it. Thanks, thanks, Tyler. Yeah, so it is a good point to make that as we drill down the lab instrument backlog throughout the year, we will see more instrument placements, which will drive more consumable revenue. And as we've said in the past, our instrument placements are roughly globally about 50% cast deals and 50%.
Speaker 4: have a big impact on Q1.
Speaker 4: And we'll you know We'll keep an eye on that as we go through go through the year and then instrument backlog gets drilled down and then Doug I think he had a Savannah question, too Yeah, thanks for the question Connor. First point is that we're in process of submitting the EUA for RBB 4 and Simultaneously we're working on
Speaker 3: the submission of the 510k package. So from a timing perspective, I think we're in reasonably good shape to to be ahead of the upcoming respiratory season. In addition, I think our confidence comes from having solved supply chain issues and now more reliably making and stocking instruments.
Speaker 3: So that's not going to be a challenge for us and we now have the 2nd line nearly validated on the cartridge manufacturing, which puts us in really good shape through the volumes that we require in 2023 and 2024. So,
Speaker 3: We're pretty confident.
Speaker 2: Great that's more aboutupdate GU we hearnow. Our next question comes from Andrew breakmman. From William Blair, your line is open.
Speaker 2: Hey guys, maybe just to go back to that Savannah commentary that you just talked about, Doug. Can you maybe just sort of talk about the steps for menu development for here? How should we be thinking about additional assays rolling off over the next handful of years? What can you tell us around?
Speaker 3: Your capacity for additional panels here. Thanks. Thanks Andrew. We are well on our way on that development and almost everything that we had. Peed up for what I would call wave one.
Speaker 3: And I would say our clinicians and rec teams are already teed up with respect to the clinical trials. So the assays that I mentioned in the script are very much on track. Is there further work to do here and there? Yes. But for the most part, technical issues are not.
Speaker 3: Not obviously insurmountable. I don't see anything that would preclude us from launching any of those things that we had listed earlier on the call. And then further to that, moving forward, we'll describe additional assays that we also are working on that we haven't yet discussed. But we're in.
Speaker 3: pretty good shape on wave one and I would say wave two you know, stand by but I think we have the obvious things that are going to be needed as we launch They kind of addressed what I called earlier the pain points.
Across the continuum and so I feel really good about where we're at and the menu that we have in development at this stage.
Okay, thanks. And then Joe, maybe a couple for you on the guidance. Just first, can you just sort of reiterate what's included in the guide for their year for Savannah? And then secondly, just on the margin, I think you called out Q2 being the low point for margin for the year, but is there anything you can give us in terms of color and to get a better idea of the magnitude of that change quarter over quarter on that operating margin side? Thanks.
Yeah, so the first question, Andrew and Savannah, there's really no change with what we said on the Q4 call related to Savannah guidance. We are going to continue to ramp.
in Europe and we are expecting regulatory clearance in the US or expecting to have product available for the Q4 respiratory season. So, you know, I wouldn't say...
There's no change really to the guidance that we gave a Q4 related to Savannah. So we'll just continue to click along there. And then as far as the margins that, you know, and specifically Q2, as we've been saying, seasonally for us, Q2 is going to be our lowest revenue quarter.
You know, we expect that the gross margins will be, as we've said, in the low to mid 50s range, and even our margin, as we said, will be in that sort of 27 and a half to 28 and a half percent range in that range. So no change there. Our next question comes from Patrick Donnelly from Citi. Your line is open. Hey, guys, thank you for taking the questions. Doug or Joe, maybe just on China, you know, a nice performance there. You know, you guys sounded pretty good even back when you gave the guidance that January was trending. Well, can you talk about, I guess, what you saw as the quarter progress, you know, how things are trending as we work our way through April ?
And just baseline expectations for China this year in terms of recovery Yeah, it was a great quarter for us for China the training team did a fantastic job recovering from the the lockdowns so quickly it was amazing work
we did see some what I define as we'll call COVID halo impact. You know this is when folks come in to the hospital with COVID symptoms and we saw this in the US a couple years ago. There was no change, no difference. You know there's a lot of vitamin D testing.
and things like that, PCT testing. And so we did see a COVID halo impact. I would estimate it was probably about $4 million. And so maybe like about six or seven points of growth. Even if you pull out that halo impact, which we do think there could be another halo impact if there's additional COVID surges drop.
So that will pull the overall growth right down, but for X COVID, we do expect to have really, really solid growth for the four year. And just great, Joe, and just to clarify, too. You know, Chinese teams did an excellent job mobilizing and getting back in market, but a lot of it was truly market driven. And when we talk about halo effect, what we're really talking about is the collateral benefit of the patient who presents.
these settings where the vitro instrument sits and in these almost stat labs and so these people end up with a number of immunoassays that are also requested and these are the assays also that generate for us the greatest gross margin. So a really nice job but also benefited.
from all these patients now presenting to the healthcare system. And I think that that will continue, as there's probably still a backlog of patients. Offset, of course, by what Joe said, which was, we do have a tough comp, because we shift $29 million with the COVID, and to Taiwan, last year, that's not going to repeat. Right? OK.
And then maybe just a quick one on the respiratory guide. You know, basically put up a pretty nice beat this quarter, maintain the guide for the full year. Was that essentially a joke to your point about some pull forward of REMs? And then, you know, maybe wanting to de-risk that second half ramp a little bit, you know, that there was quite a bit of focus on that post, the guidance, as you know. So maybe just talk through how you approach that, given the results of the quarter. Thank you guys for it.
Let me let me start and then Joe provide far more detail, but remember in the endemic state we had assuming that we are now in that endemic state we had Forecasted that we would be doing 200 to 400 million dollars per year over the next few years This year next year and perhaps beyond
That was how we de-risked the number. The 300 to 500 was to take in their count federal orders that we knew we had already on and then assumed that there would be some level of shipment. So all of that was shipped in the first quarter. A small amount, I think a tiny amount, maybe $4 million or so. We shipped in April as well, and now we're done with the federal.
programs where patients would order a product online and then we go pick them up, pick the product stores, that sort of offset. So I think we're still very comfortable.
That moving forward will be in that 200 to 400 range for COVID and this year obviously we're forecasting to be slightly higher.
Yeah just to put a bow on that and Patrick you said it right at the beginning your question we do think that we de-risk the balance of your forecasts for respiratory and COVID because we're not changing it and we did overachieve if you want. Our next question comes from Andrew Cooper from Raymond James. Your line is open.
Hey guys, it's Matt Porter and I appreciate the question. Maybe just to start, I do want to make sure I kind of understand a little bit on the margin side. I think the comment was even without the one-timer in labs, it was a little bit better than expected in one queue. When I look at the actual margin, not the dollar basis though, we're sliding a tiny bit lower for the year. Is that, hey, most of the incremental is lab instruments that to your earlier point are lower?
than maybe what you were expecting, then I would say it might be one of three things. It could be the slightly higher amount of instrument revenue that we talked about earlier on this call due to the labs backlog drill down, and then you've got the government orders which Doug mentioned which we fulfilled which
You know, probably had a little bit lower margin than than previously. And then the 3rd thing would be just that the pull forward of the flu revenue into Q4, you know, that flu revenue would come through it at higher revenue. And that would normally fall into Q1 and a lot of that pulled into Q4. So those would be the 3 reasons, but really no change from the business.
You were just referring to the chemistry side or the folks eating up the radio.
No, I meant in terms of guidance, you're raising the revenue by more than you could up. The implied margin is 27.2 to 28.3, which is like I said, just a touch lower. I just wanted to understand, you would think the incremental revenue would come from a contribution margin maybe a little bit higher than it is, but that's really what I wanted to know.
Andrew, sorry about that. I was talking about Q1, but for the full year, for the EBITDA margin, you're totally right. It's a product mix. It's slightly more instrument revenue than we had expected a couple months ago.
I was talking about Q1, but for the full year for the EBITDA margin, you're totally right. It's a product mix. It's slightly more instrument revenue than we had expected a couple months ago.
Okay, very helpful. Then just really quickly on the 21 million one-timer, just want to make sure when you mentioned collaboration agreement or collaboration settlement, any impact there to something that perhaps was going to generate revenues down the road that has changed or do we think of that as put to bed and no impact in any way on a go-forward basis.
Yeah, no impact. I'm going to go for a basis. Yeah. Okay, I'll stop there. Thank you guys. Thanks, Andrew. My next question comes from Alex Noah from Craig Hall. Your line is open. Okay, great. Good afternoon, everyone. I had a couple of calls. I was jumping around, but.
Because my question really is given that COVID is no longer considered an emergency by the White House, do you still think that Savannah can get an EUA and if it's going to be a 5K that's also maybe approval path of you, what is that timeline, what does it do to guide us?
Yeah, so I'm trying to find the. I've got a couple of notes on that, assuming Alex that you would have. That's something.
on that, but the guidance or that we've been given is that existing e-ways will remain in effect.
And the FDA is authorized to continue to accept new ways of certain criteria are met.
And for the purposes of this discussion, you're obviously referring to EUA, you may be referring to the Savannah EUA.
Savannah meets the criteria that the FDA are looking for and it's also part of the I-TEP program which theoretically could position us well for that review. So...
Or for the average company that's submitting an EUA, the FPA does have the ability at its discretion to determine whether it will review it or not. I had no reason to believe that the products that we have submitted will not be. In fact, we have 10 COVID-19 product submissions.
including several that are already in active review now and others planned over the coming months. So obviously we wouldn't spend the money and the effort if we didn't think that we would be successful in that process. Having said that simultaneously we are
planning to submit 510ks on a number of these products as well. So that's sort of the answer to that specific question. I would just add on a couple other things that are in play. CMS will no longer pay for at-home tests. So that's why.
to submit 510ks on a number of these products as well. So that's sort of the answer to that specific question. I would just add on a couple other things that are in play. You know CMS will no longer pay for at-home tests so that's why
That's why the push early in the quarter by some patients who are encouraged probably by their retail pharmacies have ordered the product and bought the product. But we do believe that CMS will continue to pay for laboratory tests when ordered by a provider. The state Medicaid programs are going to continue.
as they are until the end of September . And at that time each state will have to determine whether they're going to move forward and then what way they do that. So I probably over answered the question Alex, but but hopefully I did. Our next question comes from Casey Woodring from JP Morgan.
Yeah, hey Casey, it's Joe. Yeah, the flu number was obviously not as strong as previous Q1s. We did say it in the remarks that we did.
About, you can do the math, it was about 50 million of flu and other RSV and strep in the quarter. And so we still think that, you know, relative to the full year guidance, we're in pretty good shape for the full year. As a matter of fact, if you look at the midpoint.
Of our of our 23 guidance in the respiratory bucket relative to what happened in 2022. It's still down about 1010% and so we are not obviously assuming another record. Flu season like we had in Q4 of last year, but.
We do think that given the strong start in respiratory in Q1 and us keeping the guidance the same, we think that we've definitely de-risked the overall respiratory guidance for the full year.
Oh, next question comes from Eliza Garcia from UBS. Your line is open. Hi guys, thanks for taking the questions. So, I'll start off with that. I have to do a quick one. So, so see another.
2000 inch styles. I guess, you know, maybe if you could dig in there a little bit at a kind of where you're placing incremental instruments, I think, you know, just given all the placements that might be a little bit surprising, just maybe customer steps. I know you alluded to strong placements in China, so that was geographic.
I guess, you know, maybe if you could dig in there a little bit to kind of where you're placing incremental instruments, I think, you know, just given all the placements that might be a little bit surprising, just maybe customer stats. I know you alluded to strong placements in China, that was geographic. And then...
On the China piece, I was just wondering if you could maybe level set on timelines there with the joint venture. I think things were a little bit in flock last time. You gave an update, but just sort of frame the manufacturer initiatives for us. And timelines there. That was great. All jump on the first question on the Sophia. The instruments you're referencing are incremental. And I think what you're seeing, as I said, is the curves I'm shift in the way people think about healthcare.
I think the experience in the last couple of years has led physicians to understand that other tests other than COVID can be run in their facility. And you're seeing a lot of placements that are related to flu, RSV, and stress.
and not just COVID. So I think that's what's driving me incremental. And I think it's across a number of geographies, but it's still important the growth here in the United States is still a pretty big factor for us.
Yeah, I can address the second question on the China local manufacturing. So I think we've already talked about the fact that we've got the joint venture related to the consumables manufacturing in place. And up and running it so that's moving down the field.
as far as the instrument of the local instrument manufacturer. And I want to first of all state that there's no impacts to our numbers right now. We're not seeing impacts to our business because we don't have that local instrument manufacturing yet, but we are working very hard to get it in place. And I would expect us to have it in place.
by the earliest end of this year, likely to slip into probably the first half of 24. Our final question comes from Jack Meehan from Nephron Research. Your line is open.
Thank you. Good afternoon. Doug, I wanted just because this is so important, wanted to drill in a little bit more on regulatory pathway for Savannah. You know, I think last quarter, one of the conferences you talked about hoping to get the approval in April or latest early May.
Sounds like you're still working on the package. Can you just talk like what is driven delay has FDA asked for additional data. Just how much of this is blocking and tackling kind of to get to the finish line here. Yeah, we've been working with the group Jack called I tap out of the rad ex program.
and we thought that that was a better path for us to pursue that might have better certainty. And the trial itself is different slightly. So it created a need to go back and do more work. And that's why we've...
We believe that we will have all that submitted, the trials done and the data submitted by second quarter. This concludes our Q&A. I'll hand back to Doug Bryant, CEO , for any final remarks. Well, thanks everybody for the great questions. On behalf of the entire management team, thank you.
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