Q1 2023 JELD-WEN Holding Inc Earnings Call
Thank you for standing by my name is Kayla Baker and I will be your conference operator today at this time I would like to welcome everyone to the Gentleman holding Inc. First quarter 2023 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session.
If you would like to ask a question. During this time simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad if.
If you would like to withdraw your question again press Star and one I would now like to turn the call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations James Armstrong.
Thank you and good morning, we issued our first quarter 2023 earnings release last night and posted a slide presentation to the Investor relations portion of our website, which can be found at investor Dot <unk> Dot com, we will be referencing this presentation during our call today I'm joined by Bill Chris.
<unk>, Chief Executive Officer, and Julie Albrecht Chief Financial Officer, before I turn it over to Bill I would like to remind everyone that during this call. We will make certain statements that constitute forward looking statements within the meaning of the private Securities Litigation Reform Act of $19 95. These statements are subject to a variety of risks.
Uncertainties, including those set forth in our earnings release and provided in our forms 10-K, and 10-Q filed with the SEC Shield. One does not undertake any duty to update forward looking statements, including the guidance, we are providing with respect to certain expectations for future results. Additionally, during today's call.
We will discuss non-GAAP measures, which we believe can be useful in evaluating our performance.
Presentation of this additional information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable financial measures calculated under GAAP can be found in our earnings release and in the appendix of our earnings presentation with that I would like to now turn the.
The call over to Bill.
Thank you James and thank you everyone for joining our call today.
I am happy to report that we are making solid progress on our short term measures to simplify the business improve our cost structure and strengthen our balance sheet.
Thanks to our employees around the world are first quarter came in better than we expected.
During the quarter, we reduce cost while improving service to our customers all during a very uncertain macro environment.
Turning to our first quarter highlights on slide four.
We began the year with both sales and earnings coming in above our expectations.
During the first quarter demand was down year over year, however, not as soft as expected and.
And we outperformed our plan for price cost.
We also took steps to rightsize, our inventories, while still improving customer satisfaction metrics like on time in full deliveries.
Julia will talk more in depth about our financial performance in a few minutes.
Turning to slide five.
We continue to focus on a two pronged approach paying close attention to both the short as well as the long term with the transformation framework structured around people performance and strategy.
We're making good progress in strengthening the foundation of our business with an emphasis on both culture and capabilities.
This is augmented by the active deployment of value creation plans to deliver on margin expansion through operational and organizational efficiency initiatives.
We are pushing down line of business accountability, rationalizing, our global footprint and establishing detailed improvement targets around our sourcing and commercial excellence activities.
And finally, we are focused on delivering improved cash flow to fund the value creation projects that will support our margin improvement.
We are planning to focus future investments in areas, such as factory automation demand management and digital commerce.
We're also developing a plan to deliver more consistent profitable growth.
As I have said before we need to simplify our long term strategy established.
Establishing clear deliverables designed to drive improved market performance and shareholder returns, while giving customers more of what they value.
Although we are not insulated from the weakening macro conditions in housing across the globe. We are gaining momentum from actions we already have in progress.
One of the most significant near term actions, we have taken relates to our Australia Asia business and this is seen on slide number six.
On April 17, we announced the completion of our strategic review.
<unk> in a sale to platinum equity for approximately 688 million Australian dollars.
This was an important step towards executing our near term strategy of simplifying our business and strengthening our balance sheet.
We plan to use the net proceeds of approximately 450 million U S dollars to repay debt and expect our leverage to be below three times net debt to EBITDA on a pro forma basis by the end of this year.
In addition, we expect minimal tax leakage and anticipate the deal closing in the third quarter.
I personally want to thank our entire Australia Asia team for their continued hard work.
We have an active separation management office, which is currently working with platinum equity on the transition plan and relevant closing details.
Last quarter, we noted that we are focused on strengthening the foundation and on slide seven you see the three key areas for our work.
We have a tremendous amount of activity underway there.
We expect will deliver notable profitability improvements in the near and medium term.
Our teams are consolidating numerous ideas that range from just do it improvements to more complex projects that are run through a review process and then sequenced.
Knowing that we are in the early days of improving our profitability.
I wanted to provide some insights into a few of the projects that are helping drive approximately $100 million and lower costs in 2023.
These activities are incremental to actions we've already taken in late 2022 and early this year to improve our cost base across our operations and in SG&A.
First we're improving our operating efficiency and driving cost out of the system.
For example.
We have recently started to implement a centralized logistics program in North America that will allow us to better optimize our transportation network and improved shipment visibility for us as well as our customers.
This program, we expect to drive $15 million of annual cost out of our system.
Further we are scoping similar programs that leverage the enterprise to reduce costs through sourcing and centralized order and supply chain management.
Second.
We are focused on commercial excellence throughout the organization in.
In Europe , we are reviewing our go to market structure, including people process and systems as well as end markets searched X.
Expected results include sales and customer service efficiency targets as well as country level details to better calibrate pricing actions.
Finally, we continue to optimize our network footprint, which includes improving how we plan and execute our production.
In North America's interior door business, we have reallocated production to sites to be closer to customers and to optimize production efficiencies.
As we move forward, we anticipate expanding such opportunities across additional product categories.
Additionally, and another step towards rationalizing our footprint in January of this year, we announced the ongoing closure of Atlanta door facility, which we expect to deliver cost savings of about 11 million annually.
As you can see from these examples in our results in the quarter, we are focused on delivering cost reduction and profit improvement initiatives.
To reiterate these are a few of the projects. We are working on to drive improved performance and I look forward to sharing more examples in the quarters and years to come.
As we implement our plans laid out on slide eight we have significant self help opportunities that we expect to drive improved performance in the quarters and years to come.
We are in the process of setting clear targets.
With well defined value creation plans, and we will actively monitor them to ensure accountability.
As we develop these plans we are focusing on investment returns and a longer term runway of innovation to drive future growth.
On capital allocation, we remain committed to reducing our leverage below three times, which we expect to achieve on a pro forma basis by the end of this year.
And includes the completion of our pending Australia Asia divestiture.
We are also prioritizing investing in strong payback projects to further improve profitability.
And finally, we continue to focus on transparency with investors to help you understand the drivers and underlying fundamentals of our business.
We are underway with developing our long term goals.
We're also committed to sharing more information when appropriate and giving mile markers to these go. So you can evaluate our progress along the way.
However, in the near term or.
Our focus is on detailing our transformation plan that will reduce operating costs rationalize our footprint improve our commercial excellence.
And deliver on the large actions that we've already laid out.
I'll now hand, it over to Julie to discuss our detailed financial results.
Thanks, Dale turning to slide 10, you'll see our consolidated results for the first quarter of 2023 as a reminder, all of our first quarter financial results include Australasia as the announced sale was a subsequent event to the quarter end.
We delivered sales and earnings that were ahead of our internal expectations, mostly driven by volume and price cost results that were better than our original outlook.
More specifically market conditions in North America benefitted, our top and bottom line results, while lower cost inflation in Europe with a tailwind for earnings.
Our first quarter revenue was approximately $1.2 billion up 4.4% from year ago levels.
Our core revenue growth was a solid 7% while foreign exchange translation had an adverse topline impact of 3%.
I'll provide additional comments about our first quarter sales versus the prior year when I cover the next slide.
Our adjusted EBITDA was approximately $94 million in the quarter, leading to an adjusted EBITDA margin of seven 7%.
With our margin improvement year over year and sequentially. We view this as a validation of our near term cost reduction activities and.
In a few minutes I'll provide more color about the drivers of our year over year EBITDA improvement.
On slide 11, you'll see that our increased first quarter revenue was driven by higher selling prices that added 10% to sales year over year, which primarily reflects our price increases in the second half of 2022 to offset cost inflation.
Our volume mix declined by 3% with a further negative 3% impact from foreign exchange translation.
You'll find our first quarter revenue work, including segment details in the appendix of our earnings presentation.
On slide 12, we have added a new adjusted EBITDA bridge to improve transparency for our investors.
Year over year, our adjusted EBITDA improved by approximately $14 million driven by positive price cost and productivity gains that were partially offset by reduced volume mix and headwinds from nonrecurring other income and realized foreign exchange.
Gains.
As inflation continues to be a major topic I want to give you more detail on what we have experienced during.
During the first quarter of this year, we recognized an increase of approximately $70 million in total cost inflation compared to the prior year period.
Of this approximately 85% was driven by raw materials energy and freight costs with the remainder driven by labor.
While our total material and labor inflation were in line with our expectations, we experienced lower inflation rates in energy, mostly in Europe and in outbound freight in North America.
Moving to our segment results on slide 13 in the first quarter, our North America segment generated $768 million of sales up 6% from year ago levels. Additionally.
Additionally, this segment had adjusted EBITDA of $79 million up 18% year over year, while margins increased a solid 100 basis points to 10, 3% driven by positive price cost results.
While demand was down year over year first quarter market conditions were better than expected and our sales mix improved year over year, all of which supported north America's top and bottom line results.
Specifically interior doors wood windows, VPI and lock cantina performed well as did our Canadian business. Meanwhile, we experienced some softness in the vinyl window market and weather negatively impacted the west coast market.
We've delivered a number of operational efficiency improvements in North America. Examples include being more proactive with flexing our operations to meet demand to implementing standardized and data driven processes to reduce inventory levels.
These improvements positively affected first quarter results driving both improved cash flow from inventory reduction and an 8% year over year improvement in units per labor hour.
Europe generated $312 million in revenue and $18 million and adjusted EBITDA.
Adjusted EBITDA was 20% higher year over year, leading to 110 basis points of EBITDA margin improvement due to positive price cost and productivity gains.
Core revenues increased in the quarter, driven by higher price realization of 10%.
Partially offset by lower volume mix of 7% and then addition, Europe had a negative top line impact of 6% from foreign exchange translation.
During the quarter Europe continues to suffer from weak macro economic conditions across most of the region.
New residential construction rates are down 15% to 30% depending on the country. However, we have had opportunities to capture market share as certain suppliers in the region have struggled to serve customers and in addition, despite the headwind from lower volumes Europe <unk>.
<unk> improved productivity from operational excellence initiatives focused on both labor and material savings.
Australasia had solid first quarter results reporting revenue of $142 million and adjusted EBITDA of $13 million with margins at eight 9%.
As a result of the announced sale of our Australasia business. This segment will move to discontinued operations and this will be the final quarter, we breakout its segment detail within our continuing operations.
Now turning to the market outlook on slide 14.
We've updated our outlook to exclude Australasia, but it is very similar to what we expected at the beginning of this year.
In North America higher interest rates continued to impact single family starts and permits and we expect new construction declines of 15% to 20% year over year as well as a decline in repair and remodel activity at a mid to high single digit rate.
All of this combines for an expected low double digit reduction in volume for our North America business consistent with the outlook we discussed in February .
In Europe , which is also consistent with our previous outlook, we anticipate that demand will be down by high single digits as the market remains soft due to the regions ongoing macroeconomic challenges.
On the residential side, we see declines of 15% to 30% and new residential construction depending on the country.
Commercial construction is expected to be flat in the near term.
Construction on current projects has continued but there is evidence that new commercial projects are being delayed or put on hold in a number of markets, which may impact demand in the medium term.
On slide 15, we provide our updated full year 2023 outlook for sales and adjusted EBITDA.
Our updated outlook accounts for our stronger than anticipated first quarter results and ongoing cost reduction activities. While also removing the Australasia segment from our continuing operations.
We've included a slide in the appendix of our earnings presentation that shows how the Australasia divestiture impacts our guidance change.
When we gave our original outlook in February we were prudently cautious and we remain so given the continued uncertainty in the operating environment.
We now expect full year 2023 revenues to be between four and $4 $4 billion and full year adjusted EBITDA to be between 330 and $370 million.
After removing Australasia from continuing operations, we are raising the midpoint of our adjusted EBITDA guidance by $30 million.
Now turning to slide 16, you can see how our first quarter results combined with our outlook for the remainder of this year to result in our updated 2023 full year guidance again, reflecting our Australasia segment as a discontinued operation.
As I've described in my comments. This morning, our first quarter volume mix and price cost were better than our expectations. However, we do remain comfortable with our original outlook for the balance of this year based on what we know today.
Our updated sales guidance reflects our expectation that core revenue is down 4% to 8% driven by the low double digit reduction in demand that I've described partially offset by carry forward price realization.
Our revised EBITDA guidance reflects the impact from lower volume mix, which drops through at a 25% to 30% decremental margin.
Most of this earnings headwind is expected to be offset by both new and ongoing productivity and cost savings actions as well as slightly improved price cost results versus our original guidance.
Due to the strong EBITDA in the first quarter and excluding Australasia, we now anticipate first half and second half EBITDA to be split roughly equally.
Now shifting to cash flow, we remain keenly focused on improving our cash flow generation over our 2022 results.
In addition to generating high quality earnings each segment continues to actively work on its action plan focused on reducing our net working capital by at least $100 million with more than half of this coming from inventory reduction.
I'll now turn it over to James to move to Q&A.
Thanks, Julie operator, we are now ready to begin Q&A.
And at this time I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question press star and the number one on your telephone keypad.
And our first question comes from the line of John Lovallo with UBS. Your line is open.
Good morning, guys. Thank you for taking my questions.
First one is how should how should we think about the cadence of the cost saves realizations from the $100 billion of programs that you put in place.
So sort of the timing of the realization there and also it appears that $50 million was attributable to the first bucket just curious how the second two bucket sort of split out.
Yes.
John Thanks, Julie can go into some of the detail as as we've talked in the Q4 call. This is obviously a combination of what we started last year with just rolling forward into 2023, but also additional measures. We gave a couple of examples today in the prepared remarks.
The Atlanta closure some of the things we're doing around managed transportation and our freight systems in North America. So those are things, obviously that are being realized as we speak and we will have an impact in the year Julie can talk through kind of some of the buckets in more of the detail on that yes, sure Hey, John .
Yes, well I guess actually the first part of your question as far as the phasing I would say that we're probably like 40 60 between first half and second half of the $100 million.
We're delivering roughly $20 million a quarter Q1 of two and then that leaves again roughly 60% in the second half of the year.
And then when it comes to I think Youre looking at slide seven the three boxes. There accurately say its 70 30, when it comes to improving operating efficiency and that's those.
Lower cost of goods sold as well as lower SG&A.
From an expense perspective, and then that leaves you know again.
Optimizing the network between.
Wrapping up the year over year benefits from the site closures of last year, and then things we've already announced this year and things, we're continuing to evaluate and potentially action in the second half of this year all of that work that network footprint as roughly again I'd say around 30%.
The reduction.
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you and then as you guys talked about new construction in the U S has held up better than feared.
Should benefit you guys given your given your exposure there whats your latest kind of what Youre hearing from your builder customers in North America, and then quickly on Europe .
How are you thinking about the consumer there I mean could there actually be a benefit.
Consumer spending given declining energy cost is still pretty good wage growth. There. So just curious about those two markets and how you're thinking about the consumer.
Yes, John So it's obviously, it's a very mixed picture I would say builders in the North America, and North America, you see different views.
Certainly in the southeast Theres strong demand expected through the building cycle. So I would say the typical summer build and starts are progressing as expected, but there is obviously a geographic benefit to that region of North America, just when we look at it from a broader standpoint. There is there is still caution around.
For a couple of reasons number one inflation is an issue and also affordability of homes is an issue just in general we have higher interest rates, which are clearly creating.
More reflection on people when they start thinking about purchasing homes and that adds to the affordability challenge and the third point is that there is.
Mixed views on how long rates will stay where they are and kind of the runway rolling forward is one of the things that we see creating some pretty significant views on how things will play out in the back half of the year in this market in North America. So it's a very mixed theres not one clear view.
We remain very cautious 15% to 20% down is what our view is and that hasnt changed since the beginning of the year Europe is different.
So there is still a risk that interest rates can and will go higher in Europe . There are still significant inflation. If you just think about labor inflation or inflation in certain eastern European countries, which are delivering a lot of the products into the building product sector, that's double digit and as Ben.
There for a period of time, so we see starts in northern Europe down as much as 30% or 40%. So some markets are really in pretty bad shape, I think it's going to take a while for the consumer to really take a step back and figure out.
When will the turbulence in Europe .
Decline there.
Unfortunately, no end in sight to the conflict in the Ukraine energy costs and headwinds are softer than expected, which is good news.
However, we need to remember, Russia shut gas off last year in the summer and this is now when the European Union needs to start reloading. The reserves. So there is also an additional potential threat on energy that the gas reserves and the reload needs to be progressing as expected. So there is still a.
A lot of uncertainty and I think the general sentiment that we're seeing in Europe as people are cautious and waiting.
The good news is that the commercial projects as Julian noted are still being finished because there is a pretty long gestation period, but the new projects are fewer and the pricing.
Activity around acquiring those projects is getting more competitive so thats why we also remained very cautious in Europe for the back half of the year.
Thank you guys.
Welcome.
And the next question comes from the line of Susan Macquarie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Good morning, everyone. This is charles thrown in for Susan today, Thanks for taking my questions sure.
First would you maintain your volume mix guide for North America, and Europe unchanged, despite the better than expected.
First quarter volume versus what our expectations were.
Have you seen any change maybe that leads you to be more cautious on the balance of this year or is it more conservative given like obviously the.
Uncertainty out there in the market.
Yes, so what I just said based on John's question, I think kind of rolls into this question, where we are seeing some additional clouds on the horizon is an R&R in North America.
Typically summer as the building.
Building season, especially when we're looking at retail sell out in R&R volumes and clearly we're seeing limited destocking, we would actually expect loading of inventory in the channel at this point in time during the kind of pre loading for the summer build and we're not seeing that yet and we're seeing obviously REIT.
Hill partners that remain pretty cautious there is a lot of signals out their spend rates savings credit card bills et cetera that would lead us to believe that it is still going to be a pretty challenging R&R environment. So we feel that our expectations of kind of down mid to high single digit is very reasonable and we are seeing.
<unk>.
Additional signals that would support that so that's why we remain cautious.
And our expectation for the next I'd say two five quarters of this year.
That's helpful color Bill and then following up on this R&R pointed to just mentioned have you have you noticed any change in the tone from the channel partner about distress in the banking system over the last month and also the access for financing for Windows and door projects. How important is this for basically for for your end market.
Do you have a sense of how much your end market product sold our finance versus paid cash more specifically.
Okay. So maybe on the last point I don't know Theres too many layers between us and the install to really understand what's the financing mix of cash versus kind of a debt financing or mortgage and it's hard for us to predict.
Has the banking.
Turbulence kind of rolled over into the retail space.
You guys are probably closer to that from a macro view that we are so I wouldn't want to comment on that I would just say that our retail partners are cautious and typically summer is a build season, we're not seeing that and I think that ties into the macro environment interest rates are high they're going to stay sticky for a while inflation is still a challenge of affordability is an issue.
So we don't see any direct impact of correlation.
Currently.
Thank you for your time.
You are welcome.
And the next question comes from the line of Matthew Bouley with Barclays. Your line is open.
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions good morning.
Good morning, guys. So North America, the volume mix the down 3% in Q1.
I just wanted to get a better sense of it's obviously a difficult operating environment out there and so that as we just spoke about was it was a.
A better result than I think most of us expected.
Genesis of my question is.
What did drive that because we're trying to figure out as we go forward you know what.
What could be the potential upside or downside.
As we kind of build out the model through the year. Thank you.
Okay, maybe I'll start and then bill can add some color I mentioned in my comments.
Already this morning that North America did have positive impacts from sales mix and so when we look at their true volume decline it was more than that like 6% to 7% down which was still below our expectations for the quarter, but they were positively impacted by call. It <unk>.
3% from mix I.
I mentioned in my comments.
With Windows VPI law cantina, some of our stronger performing.
Products and lines had pretty strong quarter in Q1, a little bit better than expectations and so I think when you dig a little deeper you do see that when we look at unit volumes and just volume dollars they were down.
Kind of in that.
Mid to upper single digit range that positively impacted by mix to get us down to that net 3%.
Matt Let me just maybe add something in more on a broader level and what we're really trying to achieve Fairchild one we've talked a number of times about pushing down responsibility and authority into lines of business. So John Cross and his team in North America, Nigel dose and his team in Europe are really starting to get a couple theres down into your organization.
We are identifying pockets in areas, where our performance is actually strong.
But we're also seeing areas, where we think we're maybe not at a level of competitiveness that we require.
So currently we're saying all right how do we strengthen the areas that we're doing well to Julie's point wood Windows is something where we have I think pretty appealing lead times right now and some of the other players in the market are struggling and this is an area, where we know how to make wood windows exceptionally well.
We're good at it so we really want to force those things. So this is some of the things that getting lower into the organization gives us the ability to really start identifying with our teams in the different regions, what they really want to focus on and how we can drive that profitable growth and not just push everything out the door.
Got it alright, thank you for all that color very helpful.
Second one.
The price.
The majority of that was the result of carryover from actions taken in the second half of 'twenty two I'm curious.
Additional pricing taken.
Perhaps at the beginning of this year and sort of how we should think about pricing flowing through the model over the next three quarters.
And Matt you dropped your dropped at the beginning of your question can you just repeat that for US just so we're clear specifically what you're asking.
Yes, sorry about that so the price.
And I'm curious if there was additional pricing taken at the beginning of this year I know you said most of it was from.
From 'twenty, two and then how do we think about pricing over the balance of the year, yes. So.
It was it was carryover.
From 'twenty two into 'twenty three as we had signaled as anticipated in our Q4 call. If you remember the second thing what we're doing is we're starting to look on the commercial excellence side in more details at specific country specific segments just to make sure that we feel we're in the right position number one with the data and the <unk>.
<unk> ability, but number two of the pricing actions, but there is very limited new price almost all of whats dropped in Q1 was carried through from 2022 pricing actions.
Obviously, we're starting to get into the quarters, where we're going to have pretty tough comps on the pricing side. So thats also something you need to kind of think through when we're looking at the back half of the year.
Got it alright, thanks, Bill Thanks, Julie Good luck guys Youre welcome. Thank you and have a good day.
And the next question comes from the line of Steven Ramsey with Thompson Research Group. Your line is open.
Sure.
Hi, Good morning, maybe you talked about in the past couple of quarters portfolio pruning clearly Australasia, a big move and you had talked about some moves taken.
In the Europe segment can you talk about the benefits you've seen from pruning, so far and how that builds into the second half.
Yes, so obviously with the Australia Asia Strategic review there was a couple of things that we wanted to achieve with that divestment number. One was we wanted to make sure. We have the right partner to continue the strong growth and really support.
The carve out so we wanted to have a partner who has done it and understands that which we feel we found in platinum equity number two we wanted to de lever.
Strengthen our balance sheet.
I think we will achieve once we close the transaction in the back half of this year. So in Q3 and the third point, obviously, we want to focus on our core regions. So that's North America, and Europe , and Theres, a lot of opportunity to do things.
Differently and better we believe in those two remaining regions. So some of the things that we're already doing.
And I'd say in a smaller dimension, we talked last year about closing some sites in Melton UK, which were window related big drag to earnings. So those are closed and concluded.
Our closing or Atlanta, or we're in the process now of closing our Atlanta facility that will have an impact. So some of the broader footprint actions that we're taking are going to help us strengthen the foundation.
And we're more focused now on kind of the road ahead and how do we make sure that we have the right asset base with the right levels of investment to serve our customers and I said before we're really pushing down into the line of business logic to make sure that the owners of these areas of the business together with John in North America Nigel in Euro.
Our letting us know what do they want to do to improve because clearly we need to improve we need to make sure also that we have capital available to fund those improvement projects and so thats going to be a key focus for us. In addition to delevering our balance sheet, we're going to want to make sure that the free cash flow that we're generating we're going to be able to.
Invest in what are pretty attractive return profile projects. This.
This year, but also next.
Okay helpful and then thinking about the guidance and how North America channel inventory.
Fix that you talked about the lack of retail stocking.
Thus far.
That embedded in the guidance already.
Do not restock or is there some rebuild of inventory in the retail channel and similar.
Curious to hear how you think about distribution inventory will that channel run light through the year do you think they are.
Start to restock at some point to a greater degree.
So it's all baked in is the short answer the longer answer is clearly we remain cautious there is a lot of uncertainty we've gone through it.
Different topics today, whether it be Europe or North America.
Clearly, we're watching and monitoring the R&R channel closely but the expectations of this kind of.
Mid to high single digit down that is baked into the guidance that we've shared with you last night.
So we're effectively focused on really controlling what we can control.
And I feel we're doing a pretty good job coming off of Q1.
Regarding distribution inventory, we're not expecting any significant changes in field that would be kind of matched to what our expectations are for volume down in the back half of the year of course, we have our homework to do and we are balancing obviously labor loads in factories, depending on where we see kind of stronger demand are weaker.
Demand so John in North America, Nigel in Europe are doing a good job of.
Balancing cost to the market reality, which remains quite volatile.
Thank you for the color.
Youre welcome, Steve and I have a good day.
And our next question comes from the line of Michael Rehaut with Jpmorgan. Your line is open.
Hi, everyone. Congrats on the quarter. This is Andrew <unk> on for Mike. Thank you for taking my questions.
Hey.
I just want to ask if you could provide any more details on the sales trends in the quarter and maybe in April .
The traditional and retail channels between your business.
How does that help us think about sales growth next quarter in the back half.
So coming back to kind of where we're guiding I mean, we're thinking that new construction is down 15%, 20% in North America, we were a little better than those expectations. Obviously in Q1 for the topics that truly has talked through.
The price cost.
We're controlling costs as we expected that we would during the year. So it's tough for us to make a more detailed guide.
On a quarterly basis, just because it's a very tough environment we.
We do see and we've shared that clearly clouds on the retail R&R a resin are here.
And that's something that we're watching carefully.
Obviously that will have a big impact not just on us, but I think on the economy in general in North America.
We are seeing some strong pockets of growth, we talked about with Windows, we talked about the southeast region. We're clearly building continues to.
Raw so it's very mixed hard for us to kind of talk through in detail on a quarterly basis, what we see but our volume.
As we've said in the past is kind of mixed 50 50.
Between R&R and new construction, so that should give a pretty good feel on kind of where we think we'll end up at the end of the year.
Thank you for that and then could you speak a little bit to the mix shift that youre seeing and any any noticeable change between coastal and in stock or anything youre expecting as the year goes by.
I'd say nothing nothing significant on the mix side.
We have pockets of business, where we're extremely happy with the way things are progressing for example, multifamily homes, we still have a strong backlog, but I think that's a market topic not necessarily a child with topics. So that remains solid within within the retail side.
The World and also traditional we're seeing pockets as we've said wood windows continues for us to be very promising area, where our.
Lead times are in a pretty good place compared to what we think the market reality is in Europe , it's more of a mix between residential and commercial residential is struggling significantly as we know to the tune of 50% down $40 50 down in certain northern European markets.
Herschel is still there and a lot of the commercial projects that were released a year or two years ago are being built out in coming to completion, we do see the pipeline tightening. So we expect that commercial also in the back half of the year will create some additional headwinds into the European market and Thats why we also feel.
That we need to remain.
Cautious because there are I'd say more uncertainties than optimistic signals right now in general as to where the market could go.
Thank you for that Bill that's all for me. Good luck, Thanks, Andrew Yeah take care.
And the next question comes from the line of Phil <unk> with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Hey, guys. Congrats on a really strong start to the year.
Thanks Rocco.
On the price cost side, you guys did an incredible job carriers through May have you seen any increased competition on the on the pricing side, you've called out certainly some on.
Uncertainty on the R&R side via retail and then on the inflation side, Julie you highlighted energy lease freight in North America has been a good guy can you kind of size of how youre thinking about.
Inflation, what you thought coming the year and how it's kind of shaping up relatively at this point, so any color on price cost and how things are progressing.
Yes, let me Phil I'll take I'll take the price side, and maybe I'll ask Julie to jump into the inflation. So on price. So the short answer is no. We're not seeing any significant changes to kind of our expectations and where things are tracking what we do see and I mean I think this is normal as as the market gets tighter the projects coming into the market.
To have a greater competitive bid pressure, so we need to be very careful that the deals that we're taking have appropriate margins and that's one of the reasons why we're working hard on kind of strengthening our foundation to make sure our cost structures in line. So we can be competitive and win some of the projects, but we're being selective.
Coming back to word against buying all we're really focusing on delivering strong value in the wood window business and we think we have a great value proposition.
And as we said there is significant pressure on volume and price in the vinyl area. So we are really being cautious and careful as to what we're doing there, but I'll hand, it over to Giuliani inflation, yes sure Phil.
Yeah, I mean, it is a it's a good news story and we've highlighted this morning, especially in Europe with energy definitely being well below our initial expectations, but we were expecting inflation in the first quarter all in it would be around 10%. We came in at around 8% and that again was driven by lower outbound freight.
And the lower energy, noting however, though that those are relatively smaller pieces of our total inflation and spend but nonetheless, those two items kind of again brought our 10 down to eight expected to actual basis. So all in I think in February I mentioned that.
We thought our inflation this year would be in that 8% to 10% range and so we have dialed that back a little bit to be more like six to eight am again, mostly still driven by these trends and outbound freight and energy all day or as Phil has already talked about a lot today is still a lot of uncertainty in this macro environment and in our Q.
Core regions.
Nevertheless, that's where we're that's what we saw is from the line of what we're looking at for the year.
That's great color guys and then from a capital deployment standpoint going forward Bill you're pretty clear that you want to get on their three times by the end of this year.
When we kind of work through 2023 and beyond what are some of the core priorities. How do you want to keep leverage going forward and he talked about you wanted to invest and what's core to you and clearly north Americas, North American Europe's core to you, but are there any products in areas, where its quarter to you and theres a void that you wanted to kind of get bigger.
And where you see more opportunities from a growth and return standpoint going forward.
Yes.
Thinking about capital allocation in the following way clearly debt repayment is top of our list and we've shared that view and we feel pretty solid we can go through the math if appropriate, but we think we're going to get.
To around three times by the end of the year and we need to be below three times, which is clearly our aspiration then we need to invest in ourselves. So we need to kind of balance the debt repayment versus the investment to strengthen our foundation and obviously as we improve the EBITDA the leverage ratio will decline.
We're continuing to screen the market for bolt ons.
We're not silent here, but we do have some homework to do on the capital structure before we get back into the market, but we are looking and share repurchases clearly a lower priority for us on the list of actions. When we just kind of go through available capital. If we think about where we want to play how we want to win these are the discussions that we.
We're now starting with the organization. So the first thing we're doing is we're pushing down and creating clear visibility on our lines of business second is that we're working together with the North American and the European team to really understand.
How how do they see developing their portfolio and as we know we have a very broad portfolio. So we have a lot of fantastic opportunities. Our view clearly is that we need to pick some of those opportunities and really go at them with the appropriate resources capital allocation.
And innovation pipelines. So that's what we're working on it's too early to share detail on specifics, but we're seeing a lot of great things that we're doing and our challenge as a leadership team is really going to be around the sequencing and funding.
To really strengthen those two core areas in North America, and Europe , and obviously the line of businesses and each of them.
That's great color and great glad to hear you guys are narrowing your focus it sounds like a great strategy.
Alright, Thanks have a good day.
And as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question. Please press Star then the number one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from the line of Mike Dahl with RBC capital markets. Your line is open.
Good morning, Thanks for taking my questions. Good morning, Good morning, Mike.
The first question is still on Europe , I guess, when I take a step back and look at this.
The market structures different there you've talked about the current pressures. The risks ahead, if I look back at the profitability over the last five years, it's been lagging both on kind of an absolute basis and relative even with some of the actions that you are now taking youre looking at another restructuring here.
Sure.
I mean, why why is this core to your business at this point, you've already jettison to Australia.
Why why not take a strategic look at Europe , and say Hey, maybe this isn't really the right place for our capital anymore.
So thanks.
Thanks for the question, Mike So clearly we need to Delever and we need to simplify and these are two of the key things that we've been able to achieve by signing the Australasia agreement and we are anticipating obviously getting to a close so that will be a big step forward for us and we don't have done three legs on the chair we have too.
And both need to be strengthened Theres no question. If we look at Europe , Europe , we have some leading brands and leading market. So we have a very strong platform.
And I believe as does our team that we can do a lot more so clearly we're working now through the plans.
The lift the work streams the cost to achieve to get ourselves into.
I would say the level of profitability that we feel is appropriate.
And clearly with the platform and the baseline that we have we really need to deliver first.
And that's also for North America, and then we'll assess after we have kind of our plan to achieve what we really think are the viable bigger picture options, but again, great brands and great markets and a strong portfolio of good local teams. So we're really focused on.
Self help and controlling what we can control and I believe personally that we haven't done a great job of that in the past and that's what we want to prove to the capital market.
That we're capable of doing and delivering.
Okay.
That's helpful. Thanks Bill.
Second question.
Yes, I know Youre always limited on what you can say about to Wanda, but just kind of an update that process is still been dragging out where do we stand and should we also think about given your stated capital allocation.
<unk> when that ultimately comes to fruition.
That capital that you receive would also be funneled towards debt paydown.
Thoughts you can provide on that process.
I appreciate the question Mike Obviously this is a court ordered divestiture, it's an active process as we've shared in the past. Unfortunately currently no new news to report and I am not in a position to say anything more outside of as soon as we have more detail that's relevant to share with the market we will do that.
That's where we are on the <unk> divestment process currently.
Okay understood. Thanks.
Alright, Thank you Mike I have a good day.
Yeah.
And the next question comes from the line of Truman Patterson with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Yes.
Hi, This is Trevor allinson on thank you for taking my questions.
First one previously I think you just talked about reducing inventories by at least $50 million from where you guys were at four <unk>. It looks like you've made some pretty good progress on that already but wondering if you had any update for you.
Take that down further or at $59 still a good target.
Yes, we're still our outlook remain lower working capital by roughly $100 million. During this year, so adding and it really a key part of our cash flow generation.
And yes, I'll, just say inventory is a big part of that and we still are targeting roughly 50% of that coming from lower inventory. So we did have a pretty solid start to the year. I mean Q1 does tend to build working capital for various reasons a lot of seasonality there as we start the year, but coming out of the kind of slower.
Year end, typically, but yes still on track a lot of activity really one of our top priorities along with profit improvement is cash flow generation, including lower working capital.
Yeah.
Okay. Thanks for that and then a quick one on or alignment VPI you guys are ramping those businesses throughout 2020 to just provide any color on what kind of benefit those provided in <unk> or maybe what you're expecting on a year over year basis in 2023 in North America from those businesses.
So we're ramping I was in one of our plants here locally a few weeks back just to see the progress of the lines that were putting in so we're still in the process of ramping up we have a very robust pipeline kind of six months out is where we have visibility and we're locked in so we continue relate to like the business. Obviously, it's a small piece that we are growing rapidly today.
So we won't share details on kind of size, but it's an over proportional growth rate in a very interesting area of the market and we like a lot. So we're going to continue.
That growth just based on the good multifamily market dynamics currently and are positioned to serve that.
Okay. Thank you good luck on the upcoming upcoming quarters.
Okay. Thank you.
And there are no further questions at this time, James Armstrong I'll turn the call back over to you.
Thank you for joining our call today, if you have any follow up questions. Please reach out I would be happy to answer any of your questions. This ends our call and please have a great day.
And this concludes today's conference call you may now disconnect.
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