Q4 2023 Smith & Wesson Brands Inc. Earnings Call
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Good day, everyone and welcome to Smith, <unk> Wesson brands, Inc, fourth quarter and full fiscal 2023 financial results Conference call. This call is being recorded at this time I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Maxwell Smith, and Wesson General counts.
So who will give us some information about today's call.
Yeah.
Thank you and good afternoon.
Our comments today may contain forward looking statements.
Our use of the words anticipate project estimate expect intend believe and other similar expressions are intended to identify forward looking statements.
We're looking statements May also include statements on topics such as our product development objectives strategies market share demand consumer preferences inventory conditions for our products growth opportunities and trends and industry conditions in general.
Forward looking statements represent our current judgment about the future and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by our statements today.
These risks and uncertainties are described in our SEC filings, which are available on our website along with a replay of today's call. We have no obligation to update forward looking statements.
We referenced certain non-GAAP financial results.
Our non-GAAP financial results exclude costs related to the planned relocation of our headquarters and certain manufacturing and distribution operations to Tennessee.
Been off of our outdoor products and accessories business in fiscal 2021, COVID-19 related expenses and other costs.
Reconciliations of GAAP financial measures to non-GAAP financial measures can be found in our SEC filings and in today's earnings press release, each of which is available on our website.
Also when we reference EPS, we are always referencing fully diluted EPS and any reference to ebitdas is to adjusted Ebitdas.
Before I hand, the call over to our speakers I would like to remind you that when we discuss mix results, we are referring to adjusted mix.
Metric published by the National shooting Sports Foundation based on FBI next data.
Adjusted mix removes those background checks conducted for purposes other than firearms purchases.
Adjusted mix is generally considered the best available proxy for consumer firearm demand at the retail counter.
Because we transfer firearms only to law enforcement agencies, and federally licensed distributors and retailers and not to end consumers.
<unk> generally does not directly correlate to our shipments or market share in any given time period, we believe mostly due to inventory levels in the channel.
Joining us on today's call are Mark Smith, our president and CEO and Dana Mcpherson, our CFO with that I will turn the call over to Mark.
Thank you, Kevin and thanks, everyone for joining us today.
Before we move into a discussion of our results on behalf of the company our board and the entire Smith <unk> Wesson family I want to take a moment technologies. The significant contributions to Smith <unk> Wesson of Mike Gordon who passed away unexpectedly earlier this month.
Mike served as our president and CEO from 2004 to 2011.
And as a member of our board of directors since 2004.
The impact of his leadership and dedication to our industry our company and most of all our employees cannot be understated.
Mike had a long and very successful professional career across multiple industries and he will be remembered fondly for accomplishing so much with the management philosophy and style of kindness generosity and general guidance.
We are grateful for our memories of mic and deeply appreciate his commitment to the success of Smith <unk> Wesson, our thoughts and prayers are with his family and friends.
Now onto a review of our business in.
Fiscal 2023 ended with a very solid fourth quarter as the headwinds we face from elevated channel inventory throughout the first half of the fiscal year abated.
Focus consumer promotions in the second half were successful in driving retail and distributor inventories down significantly and we are now at or below targeted levels with every major customer.
And most importantly, our retail market share data indicates that we've maintained our leadership position at the sales counter with the firearm consumer.
Combined with lower inventory levels. This points to continued success throughout fiscal 2024.
This is all thanks to our seasoned team, who navigated through an extremely busy and challenging year never losing sight of our long term focus.
Our operations team leveraged our flexible manufacturing model adjusting production rates to match normalizing demand patterns, while still delivering impressive profitability.
Our sales and marketing teams worked to maintain a strong presence with our consumers and our channel partners designing and executing strategic promotions to take advantage of opportunities as they arose to maintain our market share leadership.
And the impressive slate of new products launched throughout the year. Thanks to our new product development team have bolstered Smith <unk> Wesson position as an innovation leader.
Last but not least none of this would be possible without the tireless dedication of our back office support functions of HR finance legal compliance and it without whom we simply could not run the business day to day.
And all of this while simultaneously navigating the challenges associated with our move to Tennessee, which is fully on track as I'll cover in a few moments.
I could not be more proud of the team and humbled to lead such a tremendous organization.
Moving on now to a discussion of market conditions.
All factors continue to point towards stable demand and normal seasonality.
Next was down low single digits on a year over year basis during our fourth quarter modestly below trends in Q3 and within normal variability.
And May next results continue to support the view that overall consumer demand remained steady compared to a year ago.
Therefore, we expect that mix will continue this trend throughout FY 'twenty four.
Largely following the same demand pattern at the retail counter as we experienced in FY2023.
Taking into account the channel inventory declines I just covered we expect that our results will compare favorably to last year.
We are still seeing a somewhat bifurcated market at retail with entry level price points and fully featured premium products both remaining strong.
In our view this continues to reflect overall macroeconomic conditions, where the average consumer spending is being squeezed by inflation.
Importantly, we continue to be in a strong position to succeed. Despite these headwinds as evidenced by our solid Q4 results.
In this competitive environment. In addition to constantly monitoring and adjusting key aspects of production pricing and promotion to ensure supply is aligned with demand.
We remain very focused on innovation.
We view new product introductions as a key point of competitive differentiation.
Our new product launches in the second half of FY2023 the MMP FPC the MMP five seven A&P metal the competitor and the equalizer have all been top selling products not just for us, but for our retailers as well.
With a robust pipeline of upcoming releases you can expect us to continue this cadence throughout FY 'twenty four.
Before I hand, the call over to Dana just a quick update on the move to Tennessee.
As I mentioned in my earlier comments. The project continues on track with construction nearing completion.
We have begun hiring and training our operations workforce and equipment installation and testing is well underway.
We expect to begin operations in August with the distribution go lives and are planning to have a front office employees in place by the fall.
It is also worth noting that with our upcoming move to Tennessee at the end of Q1 inventory.
Inventory on the balance sheet will remain elevated compared to historical levels consistent with our plan for mitigating any potential disruptions.
And with that I'll hand, the call over to Diana to cover the financials.
Thanks Mark.
Net sales for our fourth quarter and $144 8 million.
With $36 5 billion.
Our 21% below the prior year comparable quarter, which was as expected given the change in the competitive environment from last year.
We are pleased that inventory in our distribution channel continues to decline from January resulting in five consecutive quarters of inventory reduction.
Gross margin of 29% was below the 39, 8% realized in the prior year comparable quarter and reflects a combination of reduced sales volumes unfavorable fixed cost absorption due to lower production volume the impact of inflation on material and labor costs and the impact of promotional programs that were run during the quarter.
Operating expenses of $24 $1 million for our fourth quarter were $1 $4 million lower than the prior year comparable quarter due to a reclassification of sublease income from other income to operating expense excluding.
Excluding this adjustment operating expenses were slightly above the prior year due to increased employee costs, mostly stemming from relocation factors along with higher depreciation.
We also had higher consulting expense, but this was almost entirely offset by lower profit related compensation expenses lower marketing costs, resulting from the launch of the brand anthem in the prior year and lower co op advertising.
Net income of $12 8 million in the fourth quarter compared to $36 $1 million from the prior year comparable quarter was entirely due to lower net sales and gross margin.
GAAP earnings per share of <unk> 28.
Down from 79%.
While non-GAAP earnings per share of 32% was down from 82% in Q4 fiscal 2022.
Turning to cash flows.
During the fourth quarter, we generated $38 million in cash from operations and spent $25 million on capital projects, resulting in net free cash of $13 million.
We paid $4 6 million in dividends and ended the quarter with $53 $6 million in cash and $25 million and borrowings on our line of credit.
During a full year, we generated $16 $7 million in cash from operations and spent $89 8 million on capital projects, resulting in $73 million and net free cash use for the year.
This use of cash represented a replenishment of depleted inventory combined with approximately $73 2 million in capital projects related to the relocation as.
As Mark noted the timing of the relocation is on target and we expect to begin distributing product from Tennessee in our second quarter.
We will incur an additional investment of $85 million to $90 million during fiscal 2024 related to this important project.
But the relocation nearing the final phase our board has authorized a 20% increase in our quarterly dividend raising it to 12.
To be paid stockholders of record on July 13th with payment to be made on July 27th.
Looking forward to fiscal 2024, we expect consumer demand in fiscal 'twenty four to resemble fiscal 'twenty three.
That being said, we anticipate that our topline revenue will grow at a higher rate given the significant decline in inventory in the distribution channel that we experienced during the last fiscal year.
Or given the recent competitiveness of the promotional environment, we expect asps to be down by 5% to 10% in fiscal 'twenty four.
With regard to seasonality, we expect fiscal 'twenty four to follow a similar pattern to fiscal 'twenty three with a higher proportion of revenue in the first quarter than we realized in Q1 'twenty three again due to channel inventory.
We expect margins to continue to be pressured by promotions and higher costs due to inflation and rising interest rates.
In addition, the opening of the Tennessee facility will include additional onetime costs related to startup inventory movement, and continuing employee severance and relocation resulting in margin pressure.
Operating expenses will also likely to be higher due to increased profit related compensation cost inflation and onetime transition costs.
We currently expect a total of $10 million to $12 million in transition costs spread primarily in cost of goods solid marketing and general and administrative expenses.
Finally, our effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 24%.
Operator can we please open the call to questions from our analysts.
Thank you as a reminder to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone.
And wait for your name to be announced to withdraw your question. Please press star one again.
Our first question comes from Mark Smith with Lake Street, You May proceed.
Hi, guys first off just wanted to ask about long guns, good to see what the flexible coverage there.
Clearly the new products or was there anything else to help drive demand there.
Sorry, Marc you broke up there a long time, hey, Mark.
None that increase the improvement there.
That's your question.
Alright.
You broke up.
This is markets.
Driven by new product.
So as you know we launched the MMP FPC at.
In the March timeframe.
Fourth quarter, there and it was.
Successful continues to be very successful in.
Over a third of our of that number.
Excellent and then any more update on the competitive environment, especially as we look at pricing you know maybe any thoughts on inventory throughout your competitors and throughout the industry, but really want to hear about pricing competition.
Yes, I mean for us our pricing, we've been able to hold our pricing nicely actually so we're very pleased with that as you can see what the asps in this quarter and I think Dan covered.
A little color on what we expect them to be going forward, we expect to hold 90% 95%.
On the gains we have been able to achieve there.
In the marketplace overall are definitely as I kind of talked about in my prepared comments Theres definitely bifurcation. There is kind of that lower end is.
Is doing well and a lot of volume there.
And at the higher end is less price sensitive consumer probably and that's doing well as well we've been able to be successful.
As you know we run the gamut.
On our product line between good better best and we've got plenty of product offerings in both of those categories and we continue to believe that we won't have to.
Promote aggressively anybody any more beyond what we've been doing already.
That said.
The inventory in the channel right now were experiencing a normal summer just like we did last summer for US specifically, we're very pleased as we talked about in the comments with where our inventory in the channel is that promotion we ran.
And in the beginning of the calendar year.
Was very very successful in kind of correcting the lag.
Last few pockets of inventory out there in the channel.
For us and so we're very pleased with where inventory sits coming into the summertime and into this new fiscal year. So.
As far as the channel inventory for other competitors.
Okay.
Time kind of commenting on that would be that'd be kind of.
Giving you some some.
More opinion in fact on that side im going to kind of leave that to you to do some channel checks.
No that's fair thanks.
The last one for me just it sounds like the timing of the move here to Tennessee is going really well and your comments kind of on budget, you've still got a fair amount of capex here to spend any thoughts on kind of how the project has been moving relative to budget.
Yes.
As you know I think we talked about in some previous calls we are definitely over our initial.
Estimates when we came into the project just given the inflationary environment. If you think about in the last year and we started this project two years ago and think about what the inflation.
It's done in that timeframe, so where we that said, though it's really as plateaued, we don't anticipate that.
From our last estimate which was in the 160 $170 million range in total we still very much expect that it's going to come into that range. So no further.
Inflation creep on that project.
Excellent. Thank you.
Got it thanks Mark.
Thank you and as a reminder to ask a question you will need to press star one on your telephone.
Okay.
Our next question comes from Steve Dyer with Craig Hallum Capital Group You May proceed.
Thank you and good afternoon, along those lines. It looks like I think if I recall, you had guided $1 15 to 120 and Capex for <unk>.
For fiscal 2003, it looks like 30 or 40 of that slipped two to fiscal 'twenty four is that right yes.
A lot of that is.
The way that you report in.
And GAAP financials is that anything thats in accounts payable that didn't get paid before the end of the year. It doesn't sit in your cash flow statement.
So there is a chunk of it that slipped just because of timing of payables and then the rest of it is just going to fall into our first and second quarter, just based on construction timing and when the bills come in.
Got you and then I guess why would payables go into Capex on that statement.
What happens is you have to remove them out of both payables and out of capital because it's a cash flow and the way. The GAAP requires you. If if you haven't paid it by April 30th it's got to come out of your capital spending.
There was a good chunk of it and at the end of the year, where we had received bills, but just based on the timing of payment.
It didn't go out the door until the beginning of May and so it comes out of that number.
Gotcha.
So I guess I'm trying to think back to when you guys first decided to make the move but it's been more expensive it sounds like the spin you expected, which which I understand.
Can you sort of refresh our memory as to the rationale at the time for for the moment. I mean, you guys are going to be a couple of hundred million into this thing and just kind of wondering what the payback looks like of that.
Yes, so I guess, that's two questions.
The primary.
Driver of the move in the beginning of the discussion was due to some unfavorable legislation that was being proposed in the state of Massachusetts that was going to be extremely damaging to our business.
Lay on to us some proposals essentially that would prohibit us from being able to produce about 60% and products that make up about 60% of our revenue. So that was that was kind of the impetus to begin on the project.
As far as the payback goes.
We have.
We've been operating I think as you know Steve out of this facility here in Massachusetts for the specific.
Facilities since the <unk>.
And it's and it's been very good to us and we were going to continue operating our facilities quite frankly on the manufacturing side.
Indefinitely.
Because we moved the assembly operations out, though and plastic injection molding and align that with our distribution operations at our Missouri and now are kind of looking at a big Big open boxes.
If you want to say, it's a once in a lifetime opportunity to look at efficiency improvements on the operational side. So we anticipated those at that time to be in the seven to 10 cents of EPS range.
I believe that to be the case.
So when you think about that as a payback.
It's pretty significant.
<unk> and and still makes the investment worthwhile in the long term aside from that extra central rest of the business.
Yes.
That's helpful. Thank you.
As you flip to fiscal 'twenty four it sounds like.
So to expect consumer demand to be relatively healthy would you expect or are consistent I guess with this last year study.
Would you expect any restocking or do you feel like the channels at a spot where it's going to sort of stay and you guys will sort of shift more towards end demand.
Yes.
I think there is an opportunity for a little bit of restocking with us as I said in some of the.
Prepared remarks were below or at or below.
Our targeted inventory levels as we've talked about before the eight weeks of supply with our with our major distributors. So there is an opportunity for a little bit of restocking with us.
That said, we're not we're not operating at two weeks.
We're in the seven week range.
On average so some of those distributors definitely will have an opportunity to restock.
We are looking though so in answer to your question in short, yes, it will be a lot more tied to what's happening at the retail counter we do anticipate to continue that cadence of new product and Mark's question earlier about where the long gun increase came from that was from a new product and we've got some new products coming out of Australia in the next.
One coming out in the next couple of weeks and that cadence continuing throughout the rest of our fiscal year that are going to be.
That type of <unk>.
Product category, so or that type of product in that category. So we anticipate to be able to.
Very much keep up with the market and in the goal obviously is to continue gaining market share. So.
Yes, it will be in line, but we're working to.
It makes that consumer.
Retail activity higher for us than others.
Sure Yes.
Hey.
Thanks, very much I appreciate the time.
Okay.
Thank you. This concludes the Q&A session I would now like to turn it back over to Mark Smith for any closing remarks.
Alright, Thank you everybody and thanks, everyone for joining US today, we look forward to speaking with you next quarter.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating you may now disconnect.
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