Q2 2023 Molson Coors Beverage Co Earnings Call
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Operator: Good day, and welcome to the Molson Coors Beverage Company Q2 fiscal year 2023 earnings conference call. You can find related slides on the investor relations page of the Molson Coors website. Our speakers today are Gavin Hattersley, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Tracy Joubert, Chief Financial Officer. With that, I'll hand it over to Greg Tierney, Vice President of FP&A, Commercial Finance, and Investor Relations.
Operator: Good day, and welcome to the Molson Coors Beverage Company Q2 fiscal year 2023 earnings conference call. You can find related slides on the investor relations page of the Molson Coors website. Our speakers today are Gavin Hattersley, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Tracy Joubert, Chief Financial Officer. With that, I'll hand it over to Greg Tierney, Vice President of FP&A, Commercial Finance, and Investor Relations.
Good day and welcome to the Molson Coors beverage company second quarter fiscal year 2023 earnings Conference call you can find related slides on the Investor Relations page of the Molson close website.
Speakers today are Gavin Hattersley, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Tracey Joubert, Chief Financial Officer with that I'll hand, it over to Greg Kenny Vice President of S. P N, a commercial finance and Investor Relations.
Greg Tierney: Thank you, operator, and hello, everyone. Following prepared remarks today from Gavin and Tracy, we will take your questions. In an effort to address as many questions as possible, we ask that you limit yourself to one question. If you have technical questions on the quarter, please pick them up with our IR team in the days and weeks that follow. Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements. Actual results or trends could differ materially from our forecast. For more information, please refer to the risk factors discussed in our most recent filings with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements. GAAP reconciliations for any non-GAAP measures are included in our news release. Unless otherwise indicated, all financial results the company discusses are versus the comparable prior year period in US dollars, and in constant currency when discussing percentage changes from the prior year period.
Greg Tierney: Thank you, operator, and hello, everyone. Following prepared remarks today from Gavin and Tracy, we will take your questions. In an effort to address as many questions as possible, we ask that you limit yourself to one question. If you have technical questions on the quarter, please pick them up with our IR team in the days and weeks that follow. Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements. Actual results or trends could differ materially from our forecast. For more information, please refer to the risk factors discussed in our most recent filings with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements. GAAP reconciliations for any non-GAAP measures are included in our news release. Unless otherwise indicated, all financial results the company discusses are versus the comparable prior year period in US dollars, and in constant currency when discussing percentage changes from the prior year period.
Thank you operator, and Hello, everyone. Following prepared remarks today from Gavin and Tracey, we will take your questions in an effort to address as many questions as possible. We ask that you limit yourself to one question you have technical questions on the quarter. Please pick them up with our IR team in the days and weeks that followed.
Today's discussion includes forward looking statements actual results or trends could differ materially from our forecast.
For more information please refer to the risk factors discussed in our most recent filings with the SEC.
Assume no obligation to update forward looking statements.
GAAP reconciliations for any non U S. GAAP measures are included in our news release.
Unless otherwise indicated all financial results. The company discusses are versus the comparable prior year period in U S dollars and in constant currency when discussing percentage changes from the prior year period.
Greg Tierney: Also, US share data references are sourced from Circana. Further, in our remarks today, we will reference underlying pre-tax income, which equates to underlying income before income taxes on the condensed consolidated statements of operations. With that, over to you, Gavin.
Also, US share data references are sourced from Circana. Further, in our remarks today, we will reference underlying pre-tax income, which equates to underlying income before income taxes on the condensed consolidated statements of operations. With that, over to you, Gavin.
So U S share data references are sourced from Sir.
Further in our remarks today, we will reference underlying pre tax income, which equates to underlying income before income taxes on the condensed consolidated statements of operations.
With that over to you Gavin thanks.
Gavin Hattersley: Thanks, Greg, and thank you all for joining today's call. Molson Coors just finished the single best quarter of reported net sales revenue since the merger of Molson and Coors in two thousand and five. That achievement is not only a measure of those three months, it's a measure of the past three years. It's about the work we've done to strengthen our business, which puts us in a position to attract consumers when they began looking for alternatives. That's what allowed us to deliver these results today. Now, to try and remove any skepticism that you may have, I want to show you one chart in our slides that summarizes exactly what I'm talking about. Up until three years ago, our biggest brand in our biggest market was losing dollar share quarter after quarter and year after year.
Gavin Hattersley: Thanks, Greg, and thank you all for joining today's call. Molson Coors just finished the single best quarter of reported net sales revenue since the merger of Molson and Coors in two thousand and five. That achievement is not only a measure of those three months, it's a measure of the past three years. It's about the work we've done to strengthen our business, which puts us in a position to attract consumers when they began looking for alternatives. That's what allowed us to deliver these results today. Now, to try and remove any skepticism that you may have, I want to show you one chart in our slides that summarizes exactly what I'm talking about. Up until three years ago, our biggest brand in our biggest market was losing dollar share quarter after quarter and year after year.
Thanks, Greg and thank you all for joining today's call.
Most <unk> just finished the single best quarter of reported net sales revenue since the merger of Molson and Coors in 2000 and fun.
That achievement is not only a measure of those three months, it's a measure of the past three years.
It's about the work we've done to strengthen our business, which puts us in a position to attract consumers when they began looking for alternatives.
That's what allowed us to deliver these results today.
Now to try and remove any skepticism that you may have I wanted to show you one charge in our slides that summarizes exactly what I'm talking about.
Up until three years ago, our biggest brand in our biggest market was losing dollar share quarter after quarter and year. After year. Shortly after we launched our revitalization plan, we changed our marketing approach on Coors light and launched the made to chill campaign and the brand's results begin to improve.
Gavin Hattersley: Shortly after we launched our revitalization plan, we changed our marketing approach on Coors Light and launched the Made to Chill campaign, and the brand's results began to improve. In Q1 of this year, Coors Light revenue was up high single digits. In Q2, Coors Light grew more industry dollar share than any other beer brand, and it grew industry dollar share faster than Modelo Especial and Corona Extra combined. If you overlay Miller Lite's performance, it looks remarkably similar, and the reason for that is simple. Three years ago, we generated cost savings and have been reinvesting them back into our brands and back into our business. Three years ago, we completely changed our approach to marketing and media, which unlocked growth for our biggest brands. Over the past three years, we have improved our supply chain.
Shortly after we launched our revitalization plan, we changed our marketing approach on Coors Light and launched the Made to Chill campaign, and the brand's results began to improve. In Q1 of this year, Coors Light revenue was up high single digits. In Q2, Coors Light grew more industry dollar share than any other beer brand, and it grew industry dollar share faster than Modelo Especial and Corona Extra combined. If you overlay Miller Lite's performance, it looks remarkably similar, and the reason for that is simple. Three years ago, we generated cost savings and have been reinvesting them back into our brands and back into our business. Three years ago, we completely changed our approach to marketing and media, which unlocked growth for our biggest brands. Over the past three years, we have improved our supply chain.
In the first quarter of this year, Chris like revenue was up high single digits.
In the second quarter Coors light grew more industry dollar share than any other beer brand and it grew industry dollar shift faster than modelo especial and Corona extra combined.
If you overlay melilot performance it looks remarkably similar and the reason for that is simple.
Three years ago, we generated cost savings and have been reinvesting them back into our brands and back into our business.
Three years ago, we completely changed our approach to marketing and media, which unlock growth for our biggest brands.
Over the past three years, we have improved our supply chain, we've diversified our network of material supplies and our shipping methods. We've adjusted our brewery and packaging operations, we've streamlined our ordering systems for customers and we've invested in our facilities.
Gavin Hattersley: We've diversified our network of material suppliers and our shipping methods. We've adjusted our brewery and packaging operations. We've streamlined our ordering systems for customers, and we've invested in our facilities. Collectively, we believe this has made us much more nimble and much more prepared to meet elevated demand. Over the past three years, our strategy has made our brands demonstrably stronger in 2023 than they were in 2019. So while we didn't plan on our largest competitor's largest brand declining volume by nearly 30% during the quarter, if this had happened in 2019, we would surely not have seen the sales benefit that we did in 2023, or even been able to meet the demand.
We've diversified our network of material suppliers and our shipping methods. We've adjusted our brewery and packaging operations. We've streamlined our ordering systems for customers, and we've invested in our facilities. Collectively, we believe this has made us much more nimble and much more prepared to meet elevated demand. Over the past three years, our strategy has made our brands demonstrably stronger in 2023 than they were in 2019. So while we didn't plan on our largest competitor's largest brand declining volume by nearly 30% during the quarter, if this had happened in 2019, we would surely not have seen the sales benefit that we did in 2023, or even been able to meet the demand.
Collectively we believe this has made us much more nimble and much more prepared to meet elevated demand.
Over the past three years, our strategy has made our brands demonstrably stronger in 2023 than they were in 2019.
So while we didn't plan on our largest competitors largest brand declining volume by nearly 30% during the quarter.
If this had happened in 2019, we would surely not as seen in the sales benefit that we did in 2023 or even being able to meet the demand.
Gavin Hattersley: Now, a lot has been said about the US beer industry trends over the past few months, but I thought it would be helpful to provide a deeper level of detail than what you've seen in tracked channel data and give more insights about what we believe the current trends mean for the future. First, Molson Coors is number one in retail display dollar gains year to date. This is the easiest way for retailers to adjust space on short notice, so we see it as a strong early indicator of shelf reset sentiment. And it's also worth remembering that our largest brands had already experienced a display lift in the first quarter due to our Super Bowl retail execution.
Now, a lot has been said about the US beer industry trends over the past few months, but I thought it would be helpful to provide a deeper level of detail than what you've seen in tracked channel data and give more insights about what we believe the current trends mean for the future. First, Molson Coors is number one in retail display dollar gains year to date. This is the easiest way for retailers to adjust space on short notice, so we see it as a strong early indicator of shelf reset sentiment. And it's also worth remembering that our largest brands had already experienced a display lift in the first quarter due to our Super Bowl retail execution.
Now a lot has been said about the U S beer industry trends over the past few months, but I thought it would be helpful to provide a deeper level of detail than what you've seen in tracked channel data and <unk>.
Give more insights about what we believe the current trends mean for the future.
First Molson Coors is number one in retail display dollar gains year to date. This is the easiest way for retailers to adjust space on short notice. So we see it as a strong early indicator of shelf state segment.
And it's also worth remembering that our largest brands had already experienced a display lift in the first quarter due to us, but both retail execution.
Gavin Hattersley: We also know a number of retailers have moved their shelf reset timing from the spring to the fall, which we expect will make some portion of the current trends structural. For the retailers who stayed with spring resets, those conversations are well underway. Currently, nearly 20 of our top retailers are updating their planograms to drive more space for our brands and keep them in stock based on the latest demand. Continuing with retail, we are seeing particularly strong growth in the convenience channel, with both volume sales, and dollar sales up double digits in the quarter. In the United States, convenience is the number one channel where we have historically under-indexed. So to capitalize on this momentum, we are planning to increase our investment behind C-store shopper marketing in the second half of the year.
We also know a number of retailers have moved their shelf reset timing from the spring to the fall, which we expect will make some portion of the current trends structural. For the retailers who stayed with spring resets, those conversations are well underway. Currently, nearly 20 of our top retailers are updating their planograms to drive more space for our brands and keep them in stock based on the latest demand. Continuing with retail, we are seeing particularly strong growth in the convenience channel, with both volume sales, and dollar sales up double digits in the quarter. In the United States, convenience is the number one channel where we have historically under-indexed. So to capitalize on this momentum, we are planning to increase our investment behind C-store shopper marketing in the second half of the year.
We also note a number of retailers have moved their shelf reset timing from the spring to the fall.
Which we expect will make some portion of the current trend structural.
For the retailers you stayed with spring resets those conversations are well underway.
Currently nearly 20 of our top retailers are updating the plan agreements to drive more space for our brands and keep them in stock based on the latest demand.
Continue with retail we are seeing particularly strong growth in the convenience channel with both volume sales and dollar sales up double digits in the quarter.
In the United States convenience is the number one channel where we have historically under indexed so to capitalize on this momentum we are planning to increase our investment behind C store shopper marketing in the second half of the year.
Gavin Hattersley: In the on-premise, Molson Coors gained over 12,000 new tap handles in the second quarter alone, and we grew sales at double the rate of the category on leading e-commerce platforms. We're proud of this execution, and we're equally proud of the work our supply chain team has done over the past several years to ready us for this quarter, when in May and June, our US breweries had their highest levels of production since 2019. Lastly, it's important to note that the competitive pricing moves around Memorial Day and the Fourth of July did not appear to have a negative impact on our brands as our share gains continued. Given their relative size, Coors Light and Miller Lite in the United States naturally had an outsized impact on our second quarter results.
In the on-premise, Molson Coors gained over 12,000 new tap handles in the second quarter alone, and we grew sales at double the rate of the category on leading e-commerce platforms. We're proud of this execution, and we're equally proud of the work our supply chain team has done over the past several years to ready us for this quarter, when in May and June, our US breweries had their highest levels of production since 2019. Lastly, it's important to note that the competitive pricing moves around Memorial Day and the Fourth of July did not appear to have a negative impact on our brands as our share gains continued. Given their relative size, Coors Light and Miller Lite in the United States naturally had an outsized impact on our second quarter results.
In the on premise Molson Coors gained over 12000, new tap handles in the second quarter alone.
And we grew sales at double the rate of the category on leading e-commerce platforms.
We're proud of this execution and we're equally proud of the work our supply chain team has done over the past several years to really us for this quarter.
And in May and June are U S breweries at the highest levels of production since 2019.
And lastly, it is important to note that the competitive pricing moves around memorial day in the fourth of July did not appear to have a negative impact on our brands as our share gains continued.
Given the relative size Coors light to mid of that in the United States naturally had an outsized impact on our second quarter results.
Gavin Hattersley: To put the growth of these brands into perspective, Coors Light and Miller Lite combined were 50% bigger than Bud Light by total industry dollars and 30% bigger than Modelo Especial in the second quarter. And to put that further in perspective, in the second quarter of last year, Bud Light was bigger than Coors Light and Miller Lite combined. But the momentum we're seeing isn't confined to a specific brand, segment, channel or geography. Globally, we grew the top line by double digits and the bottom line by more than 50% in the second quarter. We grew volume and share in the United States. We grew volume and share in Canada. We grew volume and share in the United Kingdom. And our top three brands globally, Coors Light, Miller Lite, and Miller High Life, are all growing volume globally.
To put the growth of these brands into perspective, Coors Light and Miller Lite combined were 50% bigger than Bud Light by total industry dollars and 30% bigger than Modelo Especial in the second quarter. And to put that further in perspective, in the second quarter of last year, Bud Light was bigger than Coors Light and Miller Lite combined. But the momentum we're seeing isn't confined to a specific brand, segment, channel or geography. Globally, we grew the top line by double digits and the bottom line by more than 50% in the second quarter. We grew volume and share in the United States. We grew volume and share in Canada. We grew volume and share in the United Kingdom. And our top three brands globally, Coors Light, Miller Lite, and Miller High Life, are all growing volume globally.
To put the growth of these brands into perspective, Coors light and Miller Lite, combined with 50% bigger than Bud light total industry and.
And 30% bigger than Madela, especially out in the second quarter.
And to put that further in perspective in the second quarter of last year, <unk> was bigger than Coors light and Melilot combined.
But the momentum we're seeing isn't confined to specific brands segment channel or geography.
Globally, we grew the top line by double digits and the bottom line by more than 50% in the second quarter, we grew volume and share in the United States, We grew volume and share in Canada, We grew volume and share in the United Kingdom, and our top three brands globally Coors Light Miller Lite and Miller high life are all growing volume globally.
Gavin Hattersley: In the US, we were the top dollar share gainer nationally, with Coors Light, Simply Spiked, and Miller Lite representing three of the top five franchises in the quarter. Every single one of our top five US brands grew dollar share in the quarter as well. Coors Banquet gained share of the US beer industry for the eighth consecutive quarter, an impressive feat for a hundred and fifty-year-old brand of its size. Our economy brands grew dollar share of industry, including volume growth for High Life and Keystone. We also gained the second-most dollar and volume share in total flavored in the second quarter. We now have the number three and number five hard seltzer brands in the United States, and Simply Peach was the best performing new product in the quarter by dollar share. In energy drinks, ZOA is continuing its upward trajectory.
In the US, we were the top dollar share gainer nationally, with Coors Light, Simply Spiked, and Miller Lite representing three of the top five franchises in the quarter. Every single one of our top five US brands grew dollar share in the quarter as well. Coors Banquet gained share of the US beer industry for the eighth consecutive quarter, an impressive feat for a hundred and fifty-year-old brand of its size. Our economy brands grew dollar share of industry, including volume growth for High Life and Keystone. We also gained the second-most dollar and volume share in total flavored in the second quarter. We now have the number three and number five hard seltzer brands in the United States, and Simply Peach was the best performing new product in the quarter by dollar share. In energy drinks, ZOA is continuing its upward trajectory.
In the U S with the top dollar share gainer nationally with Coors light simply Sparks and Miller, representing three of the top five franchises in the quarter.
Every single one of our top five U S brands grew dollar share in the quarter as well.
Coors banquet gained share of the U S beer industry for the eighth consecutive quarter, an impressive feat for 150 <unk> brand of its.
Our economy brands grew dollar share of industry, including volume growth for highlights and Keystone.
We also gained a second mass dollar and volume share in total flavor in the second quarter.
We now have the number three and number five hard seltzer brands in the United States and simply piece was the best performing new product in the quarter by $1 a share.
And energy drinks <unk> is continuing its upward trajectory.
Gavin Hattersley: Since the end of the first quarter, more than 11,000 additional retail outlets have placed the brand's new 12-ounce cans. We believe ZOA has a bright future, and just last month announced a new marketing campaign featuring some of the country's most prominent college athletes as brand ambassadors. All of the points I just shared led to our best quarterly US brand volume trend since the MillerCoors joint venture in 2008. It led to revenue growth in every channel, in every segment, and in every region. In Canada, the story is similar. We saw double-digit brand volume growth in the quarter, led by Coors Light and the Molson brand franchise, which also grew share of the industry. These trends were actually well on their way even before the start of the second quarter.
Since the end of the first quarter, more than 11,000 additional retail outlets have placed the brand's new 12-ounce cans. We believe ZOA has a bright future, and just last month announced a new marketing campaign featuring some of the country's most prominent college athletes as brand ambassadors. All of the points I just shared led to our best quarterly US brand volume trend since the MillerCoors joint venture in 2008. It led to revenue growth in every channel, in every segment, and in every region. In Canada, the story is similar. We saw double-digit brand volume growth in the quarter, led by Coors Light and the Molson brand franchise, which also grew share of the industry. These trends were actually well on their way even before the start of the second quarter.
Since the end of the first quarter of more than 11000 additional retail outlet that place the brand's new 12 ounce cans.
We believe <unk> has a bright future and just last month announced a new marketing campaign, featuring some of the country's most prominent college athletes as brand ambassadors.
All of the points I just shared later, our best quarterly U S brand volume trends since the Millercoors joint venture in 2008.
It led to revenue growth in every channel in every segment and in every region.
And in Canada. The story is similar we saw double digit brand volume growth in the quarter led by Coors light and the Molson brand franchise, which also grew share of the industry.
These trends were actually well on their way even before the start of the second quarter at the end of March Quizlet became the number one <unk> and number two overall beer in the country, surpassing Bud light.
Gavin Hattersley: At the end of March, Coors Light became the number one light beer and number two overall beer in the country, surpassing Bud Light. While the hard seltzer segment in Canada was down in the second quarter, Molson Coors was the only large brewer to hold share of the segment. In EMEA and APAC, I'll start with our performance in the UK, where we grew volume, share, and revenue, and our on-premise share performance hit its highest levels in over a decade. Madri delivered triple-digit volume growth and is now the fourth largest above premium brand in our global portfolio. Based on track data in the UK, Madri is now a top five brand for on-premise value sales. What this brand has achieved in three years is incredible.
At the end of March, Coors Light became the number one light beer and number two overall beer in the country, surpassing Bud Light. While the hard seltzer segment in Canada was down in the second quarter, Molson Coors was the only large brewer to hold share of the segment. In EMEA and APAC, I'll start with our performance in the UK, where we grew volume, share, and revenue, and our on-premise share performance hit its highest levels in over a decade. Madri delivered triple-digit volume growth and is now the fourth largest above premium brand in our global portfolio. Based on track data in the UK, Madri is now a top five brand for on-premise value sales. What this brand has achieved in three years is incredible.
While the hard Seltzer segment in Canada was down in the second quarter Molson Coors was the only large brewers to hold share of the segment.
In EMEA and APAC I'll start with our performance in the UK, where we grew volume share and revenue and our on premise share performance hit its highest levels in over a decade.
<unk> delivered triple digit volume growth and is now the fourth largest above premium brand and our global portfolio.
Based on track data in the U K Madrid is not top five brand for on premise value. So.
But this brand has achieved in three years is incredible.
Gavin Hattersley: Backed by Madri and Coors, more than half of our total EMEA and APAC revenue, as of Q2, was generated by brand volumes from the above-premium segment. Ozujsko, our second-largest brand in the region, surpassed a 50 share of segment in the Croatian market and is benefiting from new enhancements we've made to our canning lines in the region. We had an incredible Q2, the best in years by many counts. While our two biggest brands in our biggest market played a large role, you can see that our entire business contributed meaningfully. We're proving this business can grow the top and bottom line sustainably. We're proving we have the resilience and wherewithal to navigate macro challenges affecting our industry and the world.
Backed by Madri and Coors, more than half of our total EMEA and APAC revenue, as of Q2, was generated by brand volumes from the above-premium segment. Ozujsko, our second-largest brand in the region, surpassed a 50 share of segment in the Croatian market and is benefiting from new enhancements we've made to our canning lines in the region. We had an incredible Q2, the best in years by many counts. While our two biggest brands in our biggest market played a large role, you can see that our entire business contributed meaningfully. We're proving this business can grow the top and bottom line sustainably. We're proving we have the resilience and wherewithal to navigate macro challenges affecting our industry and the world.
<unk> more than half of our total EMEA and APAC revenue as of the second quarter was generated by brand volumes from the above premium segment.
And I was just our second largest brand in the region surpassed a 50 share of segment in the Croatian market and is benefiting from new enhancements, we've made to outstanding loans in the region.
So we had an incredible second quarter the best in years by many counts and while our two biggest brands in our biggest market played a large role you can see that our entire business contributed meaningfully.
We are proving this business can grow the top and bottom line sustainably. We are proving we have the resilience and wherewithal to navigate macro challenges affecting our industry and the world.
Gavin Hattersley: We believe we're proving that when we stick to a clear strategy over the long term, results will continue to follow... That's what we've done for the past three years. It's why we are where we are today. It's what we expect will drive sustainable growth for our business moving forward, and it's why we're confident in raising our guidance for the remainder of the year. Now, before I pass it over to Tracy for more detail, I wanted to share that on 3 October, we will be hosting a Strategy Day in New York City. More details are to come, but we look forward to providing a longer-term view of our strategy and outlook at that time. Tracy?
We believe we're proving that when we stick to a clear strategy over the long term, results will continue to follow... That's what we've done for the past three years. It's why we are where we are today. It's what we expect will drive sustainable growth for our business moving forward, and it's why we're confident in raising our guidance for the remainder of the year. Now, before I pass it over to Tracy for more detail, I wanted to share that on 3 October, we will be hosting a Strategy Day in New York City. More details are to come, but we look forward to providing a longer-term view of our strategy and outlook at that time. Tracey?
And we believe we are proving that when we stick to a clear strategy over the long term results will continue to follow.
That's what we've done for the past three years, it's why we are where we are today.
What we expect will drive sustainable growth for our business moving forward.
It's why we are confident in raising our guidance for the remainder of the year.
Now before I pass it over to Tracy for more detail I wanted to share that October the third we will be hosting a strategy day in New York City more details to come but we look forward to providing a longer term view of our strategy and outlook at that time.
Tracy.
Tracey Joubert: Thank you, Gavin, and hello, everyone. In the second quarter, on a constant currency basis, we delivered tremendous results. Net sales revenue grew 12.1%, and underlying pre-tax income grew 52.6%. We achieved this while continuing to invest in our business, reduce net debt, and return cash to shareholders. As Gavin discussed, we have built our business to sustainably grow both the top and bottom line. We achieved this in 2022 and in the first quarter of 2023, before this recent period of accelerated demand in the US. While we remain mindful of the dynamic global macroeconomic environment and recent beer industry softness, the foundation we have laid, coupled with our strong second quarter performance, provide us confidence to increase our full-year 2023 guidance, meaningfully accelerating growth from our prior expectations.
Tracey Joubert: Thank you, Gavin, and hello, everyone. In the second quarter, on a constant currency basis, we delivered tremendous results. Net sales revenue grew 12.1%, and underlying pre-tax income grew 52.6%. We achieved this while continuing to invest in our business, reduce net debt, and return cash to shareholders. As Gavin discussed, we have built our business to sustainably grow both the top and bottom line. We achieved this in 2022 and in the first quarter of 2023, before this recent period of accelerated demand in the US. While we remain mindful of the dynamic global macroeconomic environment and recent beer industry softness, the foundation we have laid, coupled with our strong second quarter performance, provide us confidence to increase our full-year 2023 guidance, meaningfully accelerating growth from our prior expectations.
Thank you, Kevin and Hello, everyone.
In the second quarter on a constant currency basis, we delivered tremendous results.
Net sales revenue grew 12, 1%.
And underlying pretax income increased to 56%.
We achieved this while continuing to invest in our business.
And return cash to shareholders.
As Kevin discussed we have built our business to sustainably.
Top and bottom line.
<unk> 15000, <unk> and in the first quarter of 2023 before this recent period of accelerated demand in the UK.
And while we remain mindful of the dynamic global macroeconomic environment and recent industry softness the foundation, we have laid coupled with our strong second quarter performance.
This confidence to increase our full year 2020 guidance meaningfully accelerating credit from our prior expectation.
Tracey Joubert: Now, before we get to that, let's talk about some of the drivers of the second quarter performance. Net sales per hectoliter grew 9% in the quarter. This was driven by positive global net pricing due to rollover pricing benefits from higher than typical increases taken in 2022 and favorable sales mix, driven by geographic mix and premiumization. Financial volume increased 2.8%, and consolidated brand volume increased 5%. The volume growth was driven by strength in our Americas business, partially offset by a decline in our EMEA and APAC business. Turning to costs, underlying costs per hectoliter were up 5.9%. As expected, inflationary pressures continue to be a headwind. As you may recall, we bucketed COGS into three areas. First is cost inflation other, which includes cost inflation, depreciation, cost savings, and other items.
Now, before we get to that, let's talk about some of the drivers of the second quarter performance. Net sales per hectoliter grew 9% in the quarter. This was driven by positive global net pricing due to rollover pricing benefits from higher than typical increases taken in 2022 and favorable sales mix, driven by geographic mix and premiumization. Financial volume increased 2.8%, and consolidated brand volume increased 5%. The volume growth was driven by strength in our Americas business, partially offset by a decline in our EMEA and APAC business. Turning to costs, underlying costs per hectoliter were up 5.9%. As expected, inflationary pressures continue to be a headwind. As you may recall, we bucketed COGS into three areas. First is cost inflation other, which includes cost inflation, depreciation, cost savings, and other items.
Now before we get today, let's talk about some of the drivers of the second quarter performance.
Net sales per hectoliter grew 9% in the quarter. This was driven by positive global net pricing due to value the pricing benefits from higher than typical increases taken in 2022.
Favorable sales mix, driven by geographic mix and premium amortization.
Financial volume increased two 8% and consolidated brand volume increased 5%.
The volume growth was driven by strength in our Americas business, partially offset by decline in our EMEA and APAC.
Turning to costs.
Underlying cogs per hectoliter Wap five not 15.
Expected inflationary pressures continue to be a headwind.
As you may recall, we bucket cogs into three areas.
If cost inflation and other which includes cost inflation depreciation cost savings and other items.
Tracey Joubert: Second is mix, and third is volume leverage or deleverage. The cost inflation bucket drove 80% of the increase and was mostly due to higher materials and manufacturing costs, partially offset by cost savings. Volume leverage had a meaningfully positive impact on COGS per hectoliter in the quarter, providing a 100 basis point benefit. Other COGS per hectoliter drivers included mix, which accounted for the remainder of the increase. This is largely due to the impact of non-owned brands as well as premiumization. And while premiumization is a negative for COGS, it is a positive for gross margin per hectoliter. Underlying marketing, general, and administrative expenses increased 4.1%. The increase was driven by higher incentive compensation expense, which is a variable expense tied to our operating performance, as well as higher marketing investments. Now let's look at our quarter results by business unit.
Second is mix, and third is volume leverage or deleverage. The cost inflation bucket drove 80% of the increase and was mostly due to higher materials and manufacturing costs, partially offset by cost savings. Volume leverage had a meaningfully positive impact on COGS per hectoliter in the quarter, providing a 100 basis point benefit. Other COGS per hectoliter drivers included mix, which accounted for the remainder of the increase. This is largely due to the impact of non-owned brands as well as premiumization. And while premiumization is a negative for COGS, it is a positive for gross margin per hectoliter. Underlying marketing, general, and administrative expenses increased 4.1%. The increase was driven by higher incentive compensation expense, which is a variable expense tied to our operating performance, as well as higher marketing investments. Now let's look at our quarter results by business unit.
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And third is volume leverage or deleverage.
The cost inflation drove 80% of the increase and with mostly due to higher materials and manufacturing costs, partially offset by cost savings.
Volume leverage had a meaningfully.
Positive impact on Cogs per hectoliter in the quarter, providing a 100 basis point benefit.
At the Cogs per hectoliter drivers included mix, which accounted for the remainder of the increase.
This is largely due to the impact of non iron brands as well as premium amortization.
And while premium amortization is a negative for Cogs. It is a positive for gross margin per hectoliter.
Underlying market general in marketing general and administrative expenses increased four 1%.
The increase was driven by higher incentive compensation expense, which is a favorable expense touch operating performance as well as higher marketing in basin now.
Now, let's look at our quarter results by business unit.
Tracey Joubert: In the Americas, net sales revenue grew 11.5%, and underlying pre-tax income grew 40%. Americas net sales per hectoliter increased 6.2%, benefiting from positive net pricing across the region, as well as favorable sales mix. The strong net pricing growth included benefits from higher than typical US and Canada pricing in 2022. As a reminder, in the US in 2022, we took two price increases, a spring and a fall, each averaging approximately 5%. We lapped last year's spring increase in Q1 and will begin to lap last year's fall increase this September. Financial volume increased 5%. This was due to a 4.8% increase in US domestic shipments, driven by higher brand volumes due to a shift in consumer purchasing behavior, largely within the premium segment in the quarter.
In the Americas, net sales revenue grew 11.5%, and underlying pre-tax income grew 40%. Americas net sales per hectoliter increased 6.2%, benefiting from positive net pricing across the region, as well as favorable sales mix. The strong net pricing growth included benefits from higher than typical US and Canada pricing in 2022. As a reminder, in the US in 2022, we took two price increases, a spring and a fall, each averaging approximately 5%. We lapped last year's spring increase in Q1 and will begin to lap last year's fall increase this September. Financial volume increased 5%. This was due to a 4.8% increase in US domestic shipments, driven by higher brand volumes due to a shift in consumer purchasing behavior, largely within the premium segment in the quarter.
In the Americas net revenue grew 11, 5% and underlying pretax income three four.
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America's net sales per hectoliter increased six 2% benefiting from positive net pricing across the region as well as favorable sales mix.
The strong net pricing growth included benefits from higher than typical U S and Canada pricing in 2022.
As a reminder, in the U S. In 2020, we took two price increases a spring and fall each averaging approximately 5%.
We left last year's spring increase in the first quarter and will begin to lap last year's full increase this September .
Financial volume increased 5% this.
This was due to a four 8% increase in UA domestic shipments driven by higher brand volumes due to a shift in consumer purchasing behavior largely within the premium statement in the quarter.
Tracey Joubert: In addition, Canada shipments increased, in part due to cycling the impacts of the Quebec labor strike in the second quarter last year. This was partially offset by lower Latin American and contract brewing volumes. America's brand volumes were up 8%. US brand volume increased 8.7%, largely due to growth in our core brands, with Coors Light, Miller Lite, and Coors Banquet all up double digits. Growth was also driven by strength in our above-premium portfolio, led by Flavor. In Canada, brand volume increased 11.3%. While cycling the Quebec labor strike was a driver, we also achieved growth in each of our Canadian regions. In Latin America, brand volume was down 5.9%, largely due to industry softness in some of our major markets in that region. On the cost side, America's underlying COGS per hectoliter increased 2.5%.
In addition, Canada shipments increased, in part due to cycling the impacts of the Quebec labor strike in the second quarter last year. This was partially offset by lower Latin American and contract brewing volumes. America's brand volumes were up 8%. US brand volume increased 8.7%, largely due to growth in our core brands, with Coors Light, Miller Lite, and Coors Banquet all up double digits. Growth was also driven by strength in our above-premium portfolio, led by Flavor. In Canada, brand volume increased 11.3%. While cycling the Quebec labor strike was a driver, we also achieved growth in each of our Canadian regions. In Latin America, brand volume was down 5.9%, largely due to industry softness in some of our major markets in that region. On the cost side, America's underlying COGS per hectoliter increased 2.5%.
In addition, Canada shipments increased in part due to stocking the impacts of the Quebec labor strike in the second quarter last year. This was partially offset by lower Latin American.
Contract brewing volumes.
America's brand volumes were up 8%.
U S brand volume increased eight 7% largely due to quality of our core brands with Coors Light Miller Lite, and Coors banquet, all up double digits.
Growth was also driven by strength in at that premium portfolio led by flavor.
In Canada brand volume increased 11, 3%.
<unk> talking with Big Labor strike was a driver we also achieved growth in each of our Canadian region.
In Latin America brand volume was down five 9% largely due to industry softness in some of our major markets in that region.
On the cost side, and maybe because underlying Cogs per hectoliter increased two 5% inflation remained the leading driver of the increase but the impact was partially offset by the benefits of volume leverage and lower logistics cost.
Tracey Joubert: Inflation remained the leading driver of the increase, but the impact was partially offset by the benefits of volume leverage and lower logistics costs. SG&A was up on higher incentive compensation and higher marketing investments, particularly for key innovations like Simply Spiked. Turning to EMEA and APAC, net sales revenue increased 14.7%, and underlying pre-tax income increased 82.7%. Net sales per hectoliter grew 18.3%. This was driven by positive net pricing, largely related to the rollover benefits from increases taken in 2022, favorable sales mix on continued premiumization in the UK, fueled by the strength of brands like Madri, and positive geographic mix. Financial volume declined 3%, relatively in line with brand volume, which was down 2.9%.
Inflation remained the leading driver of the increase, but the impact was partially offset by the benefits of volume leverage and lower logistics costs. SG&A was up on higher incentive compensation and higher marketing investments, particularly for key innovations like Simply Spiked. Turning to EMEA and APAC, net sales revenue increased 14.7%, and underlying pre-tax income increased 82.7%. Net sales per hectoliter grew 18.3%. This was driven by positive net pricing, largely related to the rollover benefits from increases taken in 2022, favorable sales mix on continued premiumization in the UK, fueled by the strength of brands like Madri, and positive geographic mix. Financial volume declined 3%, relatively in line with brand volume, which was down 2.9%.
And G&A was up on higher incentive compensation and higher marketing investments, particularly for key innovation like Synthes spine.
Turning to EMEA and APAC net sales revenue increased 14, 7% and underlying pretax income increased 82, 7%.
Net sales per hectoliter grew 18, 3%.
This was driven by positive net pricing largely related to the rollout of the benefits from increases taken in 2022 favorable sales mix and continued premium amortization in the U K fueled by the strength of brands like Marie and positive geographic mix.
Financial volume declined 3% relatively in line with brand volume, which was down two 9%.
Tracey Joubert: Looking by market, financial volume grew in the UK on strong brand volume due to the resilience of the UK consumer and our strong on-premise performance, as well as higher-end brand sales. But this was more than offset by declines in Central and Eastern Europe due to industry softness, including the impact of the continued inflationary pressures on the consumer. On the cost side, underlying costs per hectoliter increased 17.7%. This was largely due to inflation-related brewing, packaging materials, and logistics costs, as well as the mixed impact of premiumization and higher-end brands. SG&A was relatively flat. Underlying free cash flow was $570 million for the first six months of the year, and this was an improvement of $282 million, primarily due to higher net income and lower cash capital expenditures. Turning to capital allocation.
Looking by market, financial volume grew in the UK on strong brand volume due to the resilience of the UK consumer and our strong on-premise performance, as well as higher-end brand sales. But this was more than offset by declines in Central and Eastern Europe due to industry softness, including the impact of the continued inflationary pressures on the consumer. On the cost side, underlying costs per hectoliter increased 17.7%. This was largely due to inflation-related brewing, packaging materials, and logistics costs, as well as the mixed impact of premiumization and higher-end brands. SG&A was relatively flat. Underlying free cash flow was $570 million for the first six months of the year, and this was an improvement of $282 million, primarily due to higher net income and lower cash capital expenditures. Turning to capital allocation.
Looking by market financial volume grew in the U K on strong brand volume due to the resilience of the UK consumer and our strong on premise performance as well as high effective brand sales.
But this was more than offset by the content thankful in eastern Europe .
Two industry softness, including the impact of the continued inflationary pressures on the consumer.
On the cost side underlying Cogs per hectoliter increased 17, 7%.
This is largely due to inflation related moving in packaging materials and logistics costs as well as the mix impact of premium amortization and high effected brand.
And G&A was weighted to be flat.
Underlying free cash flow was $570 million for the first six months of the year and this was an improvement of $282 million.
Primarily due to higher net income and lower cash capital expenditures.
Turning to capital allocation capital expenditures paid with $335 million for the first six months of the year. This was down $54 million and was due to the timing of capital projects.
Tracey Joubert: Capital expenditures paid was $335 million for the first six months of the year. This was down $54 million and was due to the timing of capital projects. Capital expenditures continue to focus on our Golden brewery modernization, and expanding our capabilities in areas that we believe drive efficiencies and savings. We reduced our net debt by $308 million since 31 December 2022, ending Q2 with net debt of $5.7 billion. In July, we repaid our CAD 500 million debt in cash upon its maturity on 15 July. As a reminder, our outstanding debt is essentially all at fixed rates. Our exposure to floating rate debt is limited to our commercial paper and revolving credit facilities, both of which had a zero balance outstanding at quarter end.
Capital expenditures paid was $335 million for the first six months of the year. This was down $54 million and was due to the timing of capital projects. Capital expenditures continue to focus on our Golden brewery modernization, and expanding our capabilities in areas that we believe drive efficiencies and savings. We reduced our net debt by $308 million since 31 December 2022, ending Q2 with net debt of $5.7 billion. In July, we repaid our CAD 500 million debt in cash upon its maturity on 15 July. As a reminder, our outstanding debt is essentially all at fixed rates. Our exposure to floating rate debt is limited to our commercial paper and revolving credit facilities, both of which had a zero balance outstanding at quarter end.
Expenditures continued to focus on a golden brewery modernization and expanding our capabilities in areas that we believe drive efficiencies and savings.
We reduced our net debt by $308 million.
December 31, 2022, ending the second quarter with Nic data of five $7 billion.
And in July we repaid our 500 million Canadian debt in cash upon its maturity on July the 15th.
As a reminder, our outstanding debt is essentially all at fixed rates.
Pfizer to floating rate debt is limited to our commercial paper and revolving credit facilities.
Of which had a zero balance outstanding at quarter end.
Tracey Joubert: We paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.41 per share and maintain our intention to sustainably increase the dividend. Given our strong EBITDA performance and lower net debt, our net debt to underlying EBITDA ratio as of quarter end reached our longer-term leverage ratio target of 2.5x. Our capital allocation priorities remain to invest in our business, reduce net debt, as we remain committed to maintaining and in time, improving our investment grade rating and return cash to shareholders. Our greatly improved financial flexibility does provide us increased optionality among these priorities, and we will utilize our models to determine the best anticipated return for our shareholders. Now let's discuss our outlook. First, please recall that we cite year-over-year growth rates in constant currency.
We paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.41 per share and maintain our intention to sustainably increase the dividend. Given our strong EBITDA performance and lower net debt, our net debt to underlying EBITDA ratio as of quarter end reached our longer-term leverage ratio target of 2.5x. Our capital allocation priorities remain to invest in our business, reduce net debt, as we remain committed to maintaining and in time, improving our investment grade rating and return cash to shareholders. Our greatly improved financial flexibility does provide us increased optionality among these priorities, and we will utilize our models to determine the best anticipated return for our shareholders. Now let's discuss our outlook. First, please recall that we cite year-over-year growth rates in constant currency.
And we paid a quarterly cash dividend of 41, <unk> and maintain our intention.
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Given our strong EBITDA performance and lower net debt, our net debt underlying EBITDA ratio as of quarter end reached a longer term leverage ratio target of two five times.
Our capital allocation priorities remain to invest in our business reduced net dates as we remain committed to maintaining anytime improving our investment grade rating and returned cash to shareholders.
But our greatly improved financial flexibility does provide us increased optionality. Among these priorities and we will utilize our models to determine the best anticipated returns for our shareholders.
Now, let's discuss our outlook.
Please recall that we start year over year growth rates in constant currency.
Tracey Joubert: We are raising our 2023 key financial guidance to reflect the continued strength we are seeing in our core brands in the US, while remaining mindful of the softness in the beer industry and continued caution around the consumer. We now expect high single-digit net sales revenue growth, as compared to low single-digit growth previously. We now expect 23% to 26% underlying pre-tax income growth, as compared to low double-digit growth previously. We also now expect underlying free cash flow of $1.2 billion ±10%, as compared to $1 billion ±10% previously. Now, let me break down some of the guidance assumptions. From a top-line perspective, given the strong demand in the US, we now expect growth to be driven not only by rates, but also by volume.
We are raising our 2023 key financial guidance to reflect the continued strength we are seeing in our core brands in the US, while remaining mindful of the softness in the beer industry and continued caution around the consumer. We now expect high single-digit net sales revenue growth, as compared to low single-digit growth previously. We now expect 23% to 26% underlying pre-tax income growth, as compared to low double-digit growth previously. We also now expect underlying free cash flow of $1.2 billion ±10%, as compared to $1 billion ±10% previously. Now, let me break down some of the guidance assumptions. From a top-line perspective, given the strong demand in the US, we now expect growth to be driven not only by rates, but also by volume.
We are raising our 2023 key financial guidance to reflect the continued strength we are seeing in our core brands in the U S. While remaining mindful of the softness in the beer industry and continued caution around the consumer.
We now expect high single digit net sales revenue growth as compared to low single digit growth previously.
We now expect 23% to 26% underlying pretax income growth as compared to low single digit growth previously.
And we also now expect underlying free cash flow of $1 2 billion, plus or minus 10% as compared to $1 billion plus or minus 10% previously.
Now, let me break down some of the guidance assumptions.
From a top line perspective, given the strong demand in the U S. We now expect growth to be driven not only by rate, but offset by volume.
Tracey Joubert: We continuously expect a headwind related to the large US contract brewing agreement that has begun to wind down ahead of its termination at the end of 2024. As discussed on our Q1 call, we expect volume declines under this contract to accelerate in Q4. For context, the headwind impact of this is expected to be approximately 2% to 3% of Americas' financial volume in Q4. We continue to view the termination of this contract as a positive, because while a headwind from a volume perspective, we believe it is positive for us in terms of freeing up capacity and enhancing margins. As for distributor inventories, recall that we had both higher US distributor inventory levels at the end of the Q1 this year versus the prior year.
We continuously expect a headwind related to the large US contract brewing agreement that has begun to wind down ahead of its termination at the end of 2024. As discussed on our Q1 call, we expect volume declines under this contract to accelerate in Q4. For context, the headwind impact of this is expected to be approximately 2% to 3% of Americas' financial volume in Q4. We continue to view the termination of this contract as a positive, because while a headwind from a volume perspective, we believe it is positive for us in terms of freeing up capacity and enhancing margins. As for distributor inventories, recall that we had both higher US distributor inventory levels at the end of the Q1 this year versus the prior year.
But we continue to expect a headwind related to the large UAS contract brewing agreement that has begun to wind down ahead of its termination at the end of 2024.
As discussed in our first quarter call, we expect volume to cost under this contract to accelerate in the fourth quarter.
For context, the headwind impact of this.
<unk> to be approximately 2% to 3% of Americas financial volume in the fourth quarter.
We continue to view the termination of this contract as a positive.
Because while a headwind from a volume perspective, we believe it is positive for us in terms of freeing up capacity and enhancing margins.
As for distributed inventories before that we had both higher U S distributor inventory levels at the end of the first quarter this year versus the prior year.
Tracey Joubert: However, given the strong consumer demand, distributor inventory levels in the US declined following both the Memorial Day and Fourth of July holidays. We expect they will further decline following the Labor Day holiday. Recall that declines in distributor inventory levels through the summer, and particularly post the holidays during this period, are typical. Also, as usual, we anticipate rebuilding inventory in the shoulder quarters being the first and fourth quarters. So while supply is currently tight, our brewery operations have done an excellent job of meeting the demand. As for pricing, given the strength of our brands, we continue to anticipate taking a general increase in the US this fall. At this point, we expect our pricing increase to be in line with industry average historical annual levels of 1% to 2%.
However, given the strong consumer demand, distributor inventory levels in the US declined following both the Memorial Day and Fourth of July holidays. We expect they will further decline following the Labor Day holiday. Recall that declines in distributor inventory levels through the summer, and particularly post the holidays during this period, are typical. Also, as usual, we anticipate rebuilding inventory in the shoulder quarters being the first and fourth quarters. So while supply is currently tight, our brewery operations have done an excellent job of meeting the demand. As for pricing, given the strength of our brands, we continue to anticipate taking a general increase in the US this fall. At this point, we expect our pricing increase to be in line with industry average historical annual levels of 1% to 2%.
Given the strong demand distributor inventory levels in the U S declined following both the memorial day and photos July holidays.
We expect that will further decline following the labor day holiday.
Recall that the client in distributor inventory levels through the summer and particularly post the holidays. During the this period are typical.
Also as usual, we anticipate rebuilding inventory and the shoulder quarters being the first and fourth quarters.
So while supply is currently tied our brewery operations have done an excellent job of meeting the demand.
As for pricing given the strength of our brands. We continue to anticipate taking a general increase in the U S. This fall.
At this point, we expect our pricing increase to be in line with industry average historical annual levels of 1% to 2%.
Tracey Joubert: In terms of costs, we continue to expect the impact of inflation on COGS to be a headwind for the year, but we expect it to moderate in the second half. While spot rates for a number of commodities have declined, we, like most CPG companies, have a hedging program which we expect will largely smooth out the impacts of swings in commodity pricing. Further, our business in EMEA and APAC is expected to continue to experience relatively high inflationary pressure. In addition, we expect favorable volume leverage to partially offset cost increases. This, combined with continued premiumization and lower contract brewing volumes, are expected to drive gross margin expansion for the year.
In terms of costs, we continue to expect the impact of inflation on COGS to be a headwind for the year, but we expect it to moderate in the second half. While spot rates for a number of commodities have declined, we, like most CPG companies, have a hedging program which we expect will largely smooth out the impacts of swings in commodity pricing. Further, our business in EMEA and APAC is expected to continue to experience relatively high inflationary pressure. In addition, we expect favorable volume leverage to partially offset cost increases. This, combined with continued premiumization and lower contract brewing volumes, are expected to drive gross margin expansion for the year.
In terms of costs, we continue to expect the impact of inflation on Cogs to be a headwind for the year, but we expect it to moderate in the second half.
While spot rates for a number of commodities have declined.
Like most CPG companies have a hedging program, which we expect will largely smooth out the impact of swings in commodity pricing.
Further our business in EMEA and APAC is expected to continue to experience relatively high inflationary pressure.
In addition, we expect favorable volume leverage partially offset cost increases.
This combined with continued premium amortization and lower contract brewing volumes are expected to drive gross margin expansion for the year.
Tracey Joubert: Underlying SG&A expenses is expected to be approximately $100 million higher in the second half as compared to the first half of this year, and up approximately 15% versus the second half of 2022. This is primarily due to higher marketing spend, which is expected to be up approximately $100 million, as well as higher people-related costs as compared to the same period last year. As for our second guidance metrics, we continue to expect capital expenditures incurred of $700 million, ±5%, underlying depreciation and amortization of $690 million, ±5%, and an underlying effective tax rate in the range of 21% to 23%.
Underlying SG&A expenses is expected to be approximately $100 million higher in the second half as compared to the first half of this year, and up approximately 15% versus the second half of 2022. This is primarily due to higher marketing spend, which is expected to be up approximately $100 million, as well as higher people-related costs as compared to the same period last year. As for our second guidance metrics, we continue to expect capital expenditures incurred of $700 million, ±5%, underlying depreciation and amortization of $690 million, ±5%, and an underlying effective tax rate in the range of 21% to 23%.
Underlying in G&A expenses is expected to be approximately $100 million higher in the second half as compared to the first half of this year and up approximately 15 sustained basis, the second half of 2022.
This is primarily due to higher marketing spend which is expected to be up approximately $100 million.
As well as higher people related costs as compared to the same period last year.
As for our secondary guidance metrics, we continue to expect capital expenditures incurred of $700 million plus or minus cost of ethane.
Underlying depreciation and amortization of $690 million plus or minus 5%.
And an underlying effective tax rate in the range of 21% to 23%.
Tracey Joubert: However, we are reducing our net interest expense guidance of $225 to $225 million ±5%, as compared to $240 million ±5% previously. This decrease is driven by the July payoff of the Canadian debt maturity, higher interest income due to higher cash levels and higher interest rates on deposits, and lower short-term borrowings than previously anticipated. In closing, we are extremely pleased with our second quarter performance. While we could not have foreseen the shifts that we have seen in consumer behavior that began in the second quarter, our strategy has positioned us well.
However, we are reducing our net interest expense guidance of $225 to $225 million ±5%, as compared to $240 million ±5% previously. This decrease is driven by the July payoff of the Canadian debt maturity, higher interest income due to higher cash levels and higher interest rates on deposits, and lower short-term borrowings than previously anticipated. In closing, we are extremely pleased with our second quarter performance. While we could not have foreseen the shifts that we have seen in consumer behavior that began in the second quarter, our strategy has positioned us well.
However, we are reducing our net interest expense guidance of 225 to 225 million pets, a modest 5% as compared to $240 million plus or minus 5% previously.
This decrease is driven by the July payoff of the Canadian debt maturity higher interest income due to higher cash levels and high interest rates on deposits.
Lower short term borrowings than previously anticipated.
In closing we are extremely pleased with our second quarter performance.
While we could not have foreseen the shifts that we have seen in consumer behavior that began in the second quarter.
Strategy has positioned us well.
Tracey Joubert: With a strong portfolio of brands across all price segments and the financial flexibility that enables us to continue to invest prudently in our business, we are confident in our ability to sustainably deliver top and bottom line growth, not only in full year 2023, but also beyond. We look forward to sharing more details on our strategic initiatives, capital allocation, and longer-term outlook at our upcoming Strategy Day on 3 October. With that, we look forward to answering your questions. Operator?
With a strong portfolio of brands across all price segments and the financial flexibility that enables us to continue to invest prudently in our business, we are confident in our ability to sustainably deliver top and bottom line growth, not only in full year 2023, but also beyond. We look forward to sharing more details on our strategic initiatives, capital allocation, and longer-term outlook at our upcoming Strategy Day on 3 October. With that, we look forward to answering your questions. Operator?
With a strong portfolio of brands across all price segments, and the financial flexibility that enables us to continue to invest prudently in our business. We are confident in our ability to sustainably deliver top and bottom line growth not only in full year 2023, but also beyond.
We look forward to sharing more details on our strategic initiatives capital allocation and longer term outlook at our upcoming strategy day on October the food.
With that we look forward to answering your questions operator.
Operator: Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, you may do so by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. To revoke your question, press star followed by two. When preparing for your question, please ensure your phone is unmuted locally. Our first question comes from Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Operator: Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, you may do so by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. To revoke your question, press star followed by two. When preparing for your question, please ensure your phone is unmuted locally. Our first question comes from Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Thank you if you'd like to ask a question you may do so by question stall followed by one on your telephone keypad.
Thanks for your question and staff on it by chain.
When preparing for your question. Please ensure your phone as Amit had lately.
Our first question comes from Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Bonnie Herzog: All right, thank you. Hi, everyone.
Bonnie Herzog: All right, thank you. Hi, everyone.
Alright, Thank you hi, everyone.
Gavin Hattersley: Hi, Bonnie.
Gavin Hattersley: Hi, Bonnie.
Bonnie Herzog: I had a question on your guidance. You raised your underlying pre-tax income growth guidance a fair amount, but, you know, given the Q2 beat, it does imply a healthy deceleration in the second half. So I guess I wanted to better understand the drivers of this, and really ultimately how much of the top line strength you now plan to, you know, reinvest versus maybe letting it flow to the bottom line. You know, also, are there any other, you know, headwinds we should be aware of, you know, for the second half? Or is there maybe some level of conservatism baked into your updated full year guide? Thanks.
Bonnie Herzog: I had a question on your guidance. You raised your underlying pre-tax income growth guidance a fair amount, but, you know, given the Q2 beat, it does imply a healthy deceleration in the second half. So I guess I wanted to better understand the drivers of this, and really ultimately how much of the top line strength you now plan to, you know, reinvest versus maybe letting it flow to the bottom line. You know, also, are there any other, you know, headwinds we should be aware of, you know, for the second half? Or is there maybe some level of conservatism baked into your updated full year guide? Thanks.
Okay.
I had a question on your guidance you raised your underlying pretax income growth guidance, a fair amount, but you know given the Q2 beat it does imply a healthy deceleration in the second half. So I guess I wanted to better understand the drivers of this and really ultimately how much of <unk>.
Offline strength, you now plan to reinvest versus maybe letting it flow to the bottom line also are there any other headwinds we should be aware of for the second half or is there may be some level of conservatism baked into your updated full year guide.
Gavin Hattersley: Thanks, Bonnie. Let me start with just a couple of facts, and then I'll pass it over to Tracy. Firstly, I would tell you that the momentum behind our brands in Q3 has not slowed down, it has maintained. And then secondly, we intend to invest very strongly behind the momentum that we've got, hence the $100 million extra in marketing, which, Tracy referred to in her remarks. You know, our job is to maintain those gains that we've got. We've gained, as I said, 12,000 new tap handles. We're working closely with our retailers to change the shelf sets to meet this new reality. We're the number one share gainer in dollars in the displays.
Gavin Hattersley: Thanks, Bonnie. Let me start with just a couple of facts, and then I'll pass it over to Tracey. Firstly, I would tell you that the momentum behind our brands in Q3 has not slowed down, it has maintained. And then secondly, we intend to invest very strongly behind the momentum that we've got, hence the $100 million extra in marketing, which, Tracy referred to in her remarks. You know, our job is to maintain those gains that we've got. We've gained, as I said, 12,000 new tap handles. We're working closely with our retailers to change the shelf sets to meet this new reality. We're the number one share gainer in dollars in the displays.
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Thanks, Bonnie let me start with just a couple of effects and I'll pass it over to Tracy Firstly I would tell you that the momentum behind our brands in the third quarter has not slowed down.
Maintained.
And then secondly, we intend to invest very strongly behind the momentum that we've got.
Hence the $100 million extra marketing, which Tracy referred to in her remarks.
Our job is to maintain those gains that we've that we've got we've gained over 12000, new tap handles.
We're working closely with our retailers to change the shelf rates to meet this.
This new reality with a number one share gainer in dollars.
In displays.
Gavin Hattersley: And we're gonna invest behind the momentum that we've got, mostly in the Americas business unit, but also in our EMEA and APAC business unit behind brands such as Madri. So I'll make those two points. Tracy, is there any-
And we're gonna invest behind the momentum that we've got, mostly in the Americas business unit, but also in our EMEA and APAC business unit behind brands such as Madri. So I'll make those two points. Tracy, is there any-
And we're going to invest behind the momentum that we've got mostly in the Americas business unit, but also in.
EMEA and APAC business unit behind brands, such as such as <unk>. So I'll make those two points Tracey Mizuna, yes, there's more you want to add to that yes.
Tracey Joubert: Yeah.
Tracey Joubert: Yeah.
Gavin Hattersley: Sure, there's more you want to add to that.
Gavin Hattersley: Sure, there's more you want to add to that.
Tracey Joubert: Yeah. Bonnie, yeah, the one thing that I would add is, you know, the PEPs contract that's winding down. So, you know, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, you know, we will see a headwind in terms of volume and revenues from that contract. We expect on a volume basis for that to have a headwind in Q4 of around 2% to 3% of our American volumes. And then just also, you know, don't forget the sort of pricing as we lap the larger price increases, you know, that we took last year in twenty twenty-two, you know, so we'll see that impact declining, you know, through the back half of the year as well.
Tracey Joubert: Yeah. Bonnie, yeah, the one thing that I would add is, you know, the PEPs contract that's winding down. So, you know, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, you know, we will see a headwind in terms of volume and revenues from that contract. We expect on a volume basis for that to have a headwind in Q4 of around 2% to 3% of our American volumes. And then just also, you know, don't forget the sort of pricing as we lap the larger price increases, you know, that we took last year in twenty twenty-two, you know, so we'll see that impact declining, you know, through the back half of the year as well.
One thing that I would add is.
The pecs contract that's winding down so as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we will be a headwind in terms of volume and revenues from from that contract we expect for on a volume.
Volume basis for that to have a headwind.
In Q4 of around 2%, 3% of our American volumes and then just also.
Don't forget the sort of pricing as we lap the larger price increases that we took.
Net loss in 2022.
So we will see that that impact on the economy through the back half of the year as well.
Gavin Hattersley: Thanks, Bonnie.
Gavin Hattersley: Thanks, Bonnie.
Bonnie Herzog: Okay, thank you.
Bonnie Herzog: Okay, thank you.
Thanks, Jorge Thank you.
Operator: Thanks, Bonnie. Our next question comes from Bill Kirk from Roth MKM. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Operator: Thanks, Bonnie. Our next question comes from Bill Kirk from Roth MKM. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Bonnie our next question comes from Bill Quirk from Roth.
Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Bill Kirk: ... Thank you. I just wanted to follow up and try to be super clear. So, the guidance in the US includes US volume increases and rate. Is that changed just for what you've experienced year to date? Or is your guidance now including those market share shifts that you've seen for them to continue in the back half of the year?
Bill Kirk: ... Thank you. I just wanted to follow up and try to be super clear. So, the guidance in the US includes US volume increases and rate. Is that changed just for what you've experienced year to date? Or is your guidance now including those market share shifts that you've seen for them to continue in the back half of the year?
Thank you Ed I, just wanted to follow up and try to be Super clear so.
The guidance in the U S includes U S volume increases and rate.
Is that has that changed just from what you've experienced year to date or year. Now is your guidance now, including those market share shifts that you've seen for them to continue in the back half of the year.
Gavin Hattersley: Hi, Bill, thanks for that question. Look, I don't think we're gonna break down individual components of our guides, but you know, I'll just reiterate that we haven't seen any slowdown in momentum for our brands. One big difference is the extra $100 million versus the first half of this year, and actually also versus the back half of last year. To Tracy's point, pricing, you know, we are and have already lapped one of the big price increases we put through last year, and we lapped the other one, obviously, in the fall.
Gavin Hattersley: Hi, Bill, thanks for that question. Look, I don't think we're gonna break down individual components of our guides, but you know, I'll just reiterate that we haven't seen any slowdown in momentum for our brands. One big difference is the extra $100 million versus the first half of this year, and actually also versus the back half of last year. To Tracy's point, pricing, you know, we are and have already lapped one of the big price increases we put through last year, and we lapped the other one, obviously, in the fall.
<unk>. Thanks for that question look I don't think we're going to breakdown the individual components of our of our drugs, but.
I'll reiterate that we haven't seen any slowdown in momentum for our <unk> for our brands.
One big difference is the extra $100 million.
Versus the first half of this year and actually also versus the back half of <unk>.
Last year.
To Tracy's point pricing.
We are and have already left one of the big price increases we put through last year and we left the other one obviously in the fall and we've.
Gavin Hattersley: And, you know, we've been pretty consistent about the fact that we're expecting pricing to fall back to more historical levels of that sort of 1 to 2% range. And then, of course, there are some employment-related costs, which we refer to in our script as well. So those are the sort of big four things which I would point you to. Next question, operator.
And, you know, we've been pretty consistent about the fact that we're expecting pricing to fall back to more historical levels of that sort of 1 to 2% range. And then, of course, there are some employment-related costs, which we refer to in our script as well. So those are the sort of big four things which I would point you to. Next question, operator.
Been pretty consistent about the fact that we are.
We're expecting pricing to fall back to more historical levels of sort of 1% to 2%.
Range and then of course, there is there are some.
Employment related costs, which we referred to in our script as well. So those are the two.
Big four things which are.
You too.
Next question operator.
Operator: Thanks, Bill. Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira from J.P. Morgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Operator: Thanks, Bill. Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira from J.P. Morgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Our next question comes from Andrea <unk> from J P. Morgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Andrea Teixeira: Thank you. Good morning. Gavin, Tracy, it seems that you're obviously embedding a strong deceleration in the second half, and even accounting for the 2% to 3% headwind that you mentioned in Q4 in particular. Can you comment on the underlying assumptions, perhaps for depletions, as you go into the second half? And then embedding to that, you had this 5% increase in cost per acre. I understand, Tracy, you mentioned that it's gonna actually decelerate, the inflation is gonna decelerate in the second half, which is, it just obviously makes sense.
Andrea Teixeira: Thank you. Good morning. Gavin, Tracy, it seems that you're obviously embedding a strong deceleration in the second half, and even accounting for the 2% to 3% headwind that you mentioned in Q4 in particular. Can you comment on the underlying assumptions, perhaps for depletions, as you go into the second half? And then embedding to that, you had this 5% increase in cost per acre. I understand, Tracy, you mentioned that it's gonna actually decelerate, the inflation is gonna decelerate in the second half, which is, it just obviously makes sense.
Okay.
Thank you good morning Gavin.
Kevin.
It seems that you're obviously embedding.
A strong deceleration in the second half and even accounting for.
The 2% to 3%.
The headwind that you mentioned in the fourth quarter in particular.
Can you comment on the underlying assumptions, perhaps for Depletions.
As you go into the second half and then embed into that you had this 5% increase in cost per <unk>.
I understand you mentioned that it's going on.
It's going to actually to salary inflation is going to decelerate in the second half of which is.
Obviously, it makes sense to the extent that you can comment on the margin.
Andrea Teixeira: To the extent that you can comment on the margin, and by the same token, I think it flows through not only the deceleration in top line, but also more conservative assumptions for reinvestment, if you can comment on that. Thank you.
Andrea Teixeira: To the extent that you can comment on the margin, and by the same token, I think it flows through not only the deceleration in top line, but also more conservative assumptions for reinvestment, if you can comment on that. Thank you.
And by the same token I think it flows through not only the deceleration in top line, but also more conservative assumptions for reinvestment. If you can comment on that thank you.
Gavin Hattersley: Look, Bonnie, not Bonnie, sorry, Andrea. You know, I've... As I said, our momentum has not slowed down, at all, and we're now towards the end of July. Our guidance assumes US brand volume growth in the second half of the year, which implies continued share growth based on current industry trends. You know, it does consider continued caution around the consumer and the competitive environment. And, you know, we... Tracy referred to the PEPs winding down and price increases. And then, of course, there's the extra $100 million that we've got going through from a marketing point of view. So, you know, we've factored all of those items into our guidance.
Gavin Hattersley: Look, Bonnie, not Bonnie, sorry, Andrea. You know, I've... As I said, our momentum has not slowed down, at all, and we're now towards the end of July. Our guidance assumes US brand volume growth in the second half of the year, which implies continued share growth based on current industry trends. You know, it does consider continued caution around the consumer and the competitive environment. And, you know, we... Tracy referred to the PEPs winding down and price increases. And then, of course, there's the extra $100 million that we've got going through from a marketing point of view. So, you know, we've factored all of those items into our guidance.
Okay.
Good morning, Bonnie.
Sorry Andrea.
As I said our.
Momentum has not slowed down.
At all and we're not towards the towards the end of July .
Our guidance assumes U S brand volume growth in the second half of the year.
Which implies continued share growth based on current industry trends.
It does consider continued caution around the consumer and the competitive environment.
We have Tracy referred to the to the pips winding down in price increases and then of course, there's the extra $100 million that we've got going through from a from a marketing point of view so.
Factored all of those items into into our guidance, Yes, and then just on the Cogs inflation question Sir.
Tracey Joubert: Yeah. And then just, you know, on the, on the COGS inflation question. So, you know, as we said, we do expect the impact of cost inflation to continue for this year, but then moderate in the back half of the year. And look, we've got good line of sight to our COGS right now, you know, based on hedging our contract prices and the expected cost savings. But we again do expect inflationary pressures to continue, particularly in our EMEA and APAC region, you know, as we've mentioned.
Tracey Joubert: Yeah. And then just, you know, on the, on the COGS inflation question. So, you know, as we said, we do expect the impact of cost inflation to continue for this year, but then moderate in the back half of the year. And look, we've got good line of sight to our COGS right now, you know, based on hedging our contract prices and the expected cost savings. But we again do expect inflationary pressures to continue, particularly in our EMEA and APAC region, you know, as we've mentioned.
As we said, we do expect the impact of cost inflation to continue for this year, but then moderates in the back half of the year and if we've got good line of cost Jack Cogs right now based on hedging.
Our contract prices and the expected cost savings to be again do expect inflationary pressures to continue particularly in our EMEA and APAC region. As we've mentioned so from a from a margin expansion point of view.
Tracey Joubert: So from a margin expansion point of view, you know, because of some of these factors as well as, you know, the benefit from our efficiency project, you know, as we've invested more in our business around efficiencies and cost savings, and, you know, really looking at a more normalized cost of goods sold environment, you know, in the medium term, we are expecting a margin expansion.
Tracey Joubert: So from a margin expansion point of view, you know, because of some of these factors as well as, you know, the benefit from our efficiency project, you know, as we've invested more in our business around efficiencies and cost savings, and, you know, really looking at a more normalized cost of goods sold environment, you know, in the medium term, we are expecting a margin expansion.
Cost of of <unk>.
Some of these sectors as well as the benefit from our efficiency project.
<unk> invested more in our business around efficiencies and cost savings.
And really looking at a more normalized cost of goods sold environment in the medium term, we are expecting and margin expansion.
Andrea Teixeira: Mm-hmm. And when the capacity increases, I also wanna make sure that we all stick on that. The 2 to 3% headwind, right, that you spoke about volumes that you might do this contract, it also gives you more capacity, right? So are you, together with what you mentioned, Gavin, in the beginning of your call, your prepared remarks, that you have some of the top 12 retailers in the US taking on adjusting shelf space for you, would we see that capacity flipping into your own brands, or should we wait for that to settle before we can count on that as you go into the balance of the year? Thank you.
Andrea Teixeira: Mm-hmm. And when the capacity increases, I also wanna make sure that we all stick on that. The 2 to 3% headwind, right, that you spoke about volumes that you might do this contract, it also gives you more capacity, right? So are you, together with what you mentioned, Gavin, in the beginning of your call, your prepared remarks, that you have some of the top 12 retailers in the US taking on adjusting shelf space for you, would we see that capacity flipping into your own brands, or should we wait for that to settle before we can count on that as you go into the balance of the year? Thank you.
Yeah.
And when that is that the capacity increase and I also want to make sure that we all circle and that the 2% to 3% headwind right that you spoke about volumes that you reminded us.
This contract. It also gives you more capacity right. So.
Together with what you mentioned gathering at the beginning of your call. Your prepared remarks that you have some of the top 12 retailers in the U S. Taking on adjusting shelf space for you.
Would we see that capacity flipping to your own brands or we should wait for that to settle before we can count on that as you go into the balance of the year. Thank you.
Gavin Hattersley: Thanks, Andrea. It's our top twenty retailers that are gonna make changes in the fall reset. Some of them actually have already made those changes. And frankly, that number grows every week when I talk to our head of sales. So it's actually somewhat higher than what it was when I made these prepared remarks. From a supply chain point of view, I think our supply chain team has done an amazing job keeping up at such short notice. You know, we always run close to full capacity in summer. So, you know, of course, we're gonna be a little tighter than normal. And so there are some distributors in some pockets where they may be out of stocks, particularly where the momentum is really strong.
Gavin Hattersley: Thanks, Andrea. It's our top twenty retailers that are gonna make changes in the fall reset. Some of them actually have already made those changes. And frankly, that number grows every week when I talk to our head of sales. So it's actually somewhat higher than what it was when I made these prepared remarks. From a supply chain point of view, I think our supply chain team has done an amazing job keeping up at such short notice. You know, we always run close to full capacity in summer. So, you know, of course, we're gonna be a little tighter than normal. And so there are some distributors in some pockets where they may be out of stocks, particularly where the momentum is really strong.
Thanks, Andrew.
Top.
It's 20 retailers that are going to make changes in the in the full reset some of them actually have already made those changes and frankly that number grows every week, we're not talk to to talk to our head of sales. So it's actually somewhat higher than that.
And what it was.
Many of these prepared remarks.
From a supply chain point of view I think our supply chain team has done an amazing job keeping up with it.
Such short notice, we always run close to full capacity in from us.
And of course, we're going to be a little tighter than the normal and so there are some distributors in some pockets where they may be out of stocks, particularly where the momentum is really strong and we've got some distributors growing 30 40, 50% at the moment.
Gavin Hattersley: We've got some distributors growing 30%, 40%, 50% at the moment. We rebuilt inventory coming out of Memorial Day. We're doing the same now as we rebuild heading into Labor Day. And, you know, we came into the second quarter with good inventories. So, you know, I think we're doing a great job of keeping up with this unexpected demand. I think we've got the capacity to do that, and of course, when PEPs starts coming out, we will be able to replace that volume with our own brands, and it'll free up a little bit more capacity for us as we head into 2024.
Gavin Hattersley: We've got some distributors growing 30%, 40%, 50% at the moment. We rebuilt inventory coming out of Memorial Day. We're doing the same now as we rebuild heading into Labor Day. And, you know, we came into the second quarter with good inventories. So, you know, I think we're doing a great job of keeping up with this unexpected demand. I think we've got the capacity to do that, and of course, when PEPs starts coming out, we will be able to replace that volume with our own brands, and it'll free up a little bit more capacity for us as we head into 2024.
We rebuilt inventory coming out of Memorial day.
We're doing the same now as we as we rebuild hitting into labor day.
We came into the second quarter with good inventories.
<unk>.
I think we're doing a great job of keeping up with the with this unexpected demand I think we've got the capacity to do that and of course, we and perhaps thoughts coming out we will be able to replace that volume with our own with our own brands. It will free up a little bit more capacity for us as we head into into 2024.
Operator: Thanks, Andrea. Our next question comes from Vivian Azer from TD Cowen. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Operator: Thanks, Andrea. Our next question comes from Vivian Azer from TD Cowen. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Sanjay our next question comes from Vivien <unk> from TD Cowen. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Vivian Azer: Hi, good morning. Thank you. Gavin and Tracy, I'm hearing some concern from investors that there seems to be perhaps a disconnect in terms of what would've been expected from a depletion standpoint, just using the publicly available data. I have Nielsen; you guys are obviously citing Circana, relative to the shipments. I think we've certainly covered the capacity point pretty well at this point. But were there any other timing factors to consider in terms of understanding why your Americas shipments fell below what we would've seen in Nielsen-tracked channels from a volume growth perspective? Thanks.
Vivian Azer: Hi, good morning. Thank you. Gavin and Tracy, I'm hearing some concern from investors that there seems to be perhaps a disconnect in terms of what would've been expected from a depletion standpoint, just using the publicly available data. I have Nielsen; you guys are obviously citing Circana, relative to the shipments. I think we've certainly covered the capacity point pretty well at this point. But were there any other timing factors to consider in terms of understanding why your Americas shipments fell below what we would've seen in Nielsen-tracked channels from a volume growth perspective? Thanks.
Hi, good morning, Thank you.
Gavin and Tracey I'm hearing some concern from investors that there seems to be perhaps a disconnect in terms of what would've been expected from a depletion standpoint, using the publicly available data I have Nielsen and you guys are obviously siding zircon.
Relative to the shipments I think we've certainly.
Covered the capacity point, producing well at this point, but were there any other timing factors to consider in terms of understanding.
Y ear America shipments fell.
Fell below what we would've seen in Nielsen tracked channels from a volume growth perspective. Thanks.
Gavin Hattersley: Yeah, a couple of points I'd make. One is that we came into the second quarter with very high invent... Well, not very high inventory. We came in with higher inventories than we normally did because we wanted to make sure we could supply our consumers and distributors through summer. Now, we obviously weren't planning for the current situation, but we certainly had higher shipments coming into Q2. We always run close to full capacity in summer, so, you know, frankly, there isn't a lot of, from a shipments point of view, you know, a significant increase possible as we operate in summer. Notwithstanding that, our breweries had a record May and June since 2019, and are functioning extremely well.
Gavin Hattersley: Yeah, a couple of points I'd make. One is that we came into the second quarter with very high invent... Well, not very high inventory. We came in with higher inventories than we normally did because we wanted to make sure we could supply our consumers and distributors through summer. Now, we obviously weren't planning for the current situation, but we certainly had higher shipments coming into Q2. We always run close to full capacity in summer, so, you know, frankly, there isn't a lot of, from a shipments point of view, you know, a significant increase possible as we operate in summer. Notwithstanding that, our breweries had a record May and June since 2019, and are functioning extremely well.
You are a couple of points I'd make one is that we came into the into the second quarter was very high.
Very high and we came in with higher inventories than we normally do it because we wanted to make sure we could supply.
Consumers and distributors through summer, we obviously weren't planning for the for the current.
Situation, but we certainly had higher shipments coming into Q2.
We always run close to full capacity in summer so.
Frankly, there isn't a lot of.
From a shipments point of view.
A significant increase possible as we as we operate in from a notwithstanding that.
<unk> had a record may and June since 2019.
Gavin Hattersley: So, you know, those are the two factors that I would point you to, Vivian. From a capacity point of view, you know, of course, we don't have unlimited capacity, but we're keeping up, I think, amazingly well, given the short notice of this demand shift. And we'll rebuild our inventory heading into Labor Day, and we'll rebuild inventory post Labor Day as we head towards the back of the year.
Gavin Hattersley: So, you know, those are the two factors that I would point you to, Vivian. From a capacity point of view, you know, of course, we don't have unlimited capacity, but we're keeping up, I think, amazingly well, given the short notice of this demand shift. And we'll rebuild our inventory heading into Labor Day, and we'll rebuild inventory post Labor Day as we head towards the back of the year.
Functioning extremely well so those are the two factors that I would that I would.
You too.
Vivien from a from a capacity point of view.
Of course, we don't have unlimited capacity, but we're keeping up.
Thank amazingly well given the.
The short notice of this of this demand shift and move.
We will rebuild our inventory hitting into labor day, and we will build rebuild inventory post labor day, as we head towards the back of the year.
Operator: Our next question comes from Nadine Sarwat from Bernstein. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Operator: Our next question comes from Nadine Sarwat from Bernstein. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Our next question comes from Nadine <unk> from Bernstein. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Nadine Sarwat: Hi. Thank you. Good morning, guys. So last time we spoke, I know you mentioned your expectations at the time were that shelf resets could be more modest in the fall than some other brewers were expecting. But it sounds from your prepared remarks that you believe, you know, these are gonna be bigger than initially expected. So could you provide a bit more color based on what you're seeing? I know you touched on it, but, you know, the puts and takes of those fall resets, and then how you're thinking of going into the spring next year. And then one more, if I may ask, in the US, were your on-trade and off-trade trends meaningfully different or broadly in line? And if so, a little color on that as well. Thank you.
Nadine Sarwat: Hi. Thank you. Good morning, guys. So last time we spoke, I know you mentioned your expectations at the time were that shelf resets could be more modest in the fall than some other brewers were expecting. But it sounds from your prepared remarks that you believe, you know, these are gonna be bigger than initially expected. So could you provide a bit more color based on what you're seeing? I know you touched on it, but, you know, the puts and takes of those fall resets, and then how you're thinking of going into the spring next year. And then one more, if I may ask, in the US, were your on-trade and off-trade trends meaningfully different or broadly in line? And if so, a little color on that as well. Thank you.
Hi, Thank you good morning, guys.
Last time, we spoke I know you mentioned your expectations at the time, where the shelf resets could be more modest in the fall than some other brewers were extended expecting but it sounds from your prepared remarks that you believe you know these are going to be bigger than initially expected. So could you provide a bit more color based on what youre seeing I know you touched on it but.
The puts and takes of this fall resets and then how youre thinking of going into the spring next year and then one more if I may ask in the U S. Where you are on trade and off trade trends meaningfully different are broadly in line and if so a little color on that as well. Thank you.
Gavin Hattersley: Thanks, Nadine. I'll take your second question first. Yes, our on-premise trends were better than our off-premise trends in the US. As far as your shelf reset question is concerned, yes, we are in a better place now than we were necessarily thinking at the end of the first quarter. A lot more retailers have already moved some of their shelf resets and are planning to move their full shelf resets than we had initially expected. You know, as I said, nearly 20 of our retailers are updating their planograms right now. That number grows every week. Every time, as I said, I talk to our head of sales, that number grows.
Gavin Hattersley: Thanks, Nadine. I'll take your second question first. Yes, our on-premise trends were better than our off-premise trends in the US. As far as your shelf reset question is concerned, yes, we are in a better place now than we were necessarily thinking at the end of the first quarter. A lot more retailers have already moved some of their shelf resets and are planning to move their full shelf resets than we had initially expected. You know, as I said, nearly 20 of our retailers are updating their planograms right now. That number grows every week. Every time, as I said, I talk to our head of sales, that number grows.
Thanks, David and I'll take your second question first yes, or on premise trends were better than our off premise trends in the in the U S.
As far as your shelf reset Christian is concerned yes, we are in a better place now than then.
Then we were necessarily thinking at the end of the first quarter.
A lot more retailers have have already moved some of this shelf resets and are planning to move the full shelf resets than we had initially.
Expected.
As I said nearly nearly 20 of our retailers up there getting the 10 agreements right now that number grows.
Every week as I said, our talk to our head of sales that number grows we are working really closely with our retailers to recommend space and assortment solutions too.
Gavin Hattersley: We're working really closely with our retailers to recommend space and assortment solutions to, you know, just drive a sustained category growth for the retailers. And given those recent trends, we have seen a number of retailers make interim adjustments to displays and space this summer. And we do expect that to continue into the fall and also next spring. And as I said, I think in my prepared remarks, or maybe in Q&A, I can't remember, but Coors Banquet, you know, Coors Banquet is the number one in retail dollar display gains year to date.
Gavin Hattersley: We're working really closely with our retailers to recommend space and assortment solutions to, you know, just drive a sustained category growth for the retailers. And given those recent trends, we have seen a number of retailers make interim adjustments to displays and space this summer. And we do expect that to continue into the fall and also next spring. And as I said, I think in my prepared remarks, or maybe in Q&A, I can't remember, but Coors Banquet, you know, Coors Banquet is the number one in retail dollar display gains year to date.
Just drops a sustained category growth for the for the retailers.
And given those recent trends we have seen a number of retailers make interim adjustments to two two displays and space.
Summer and we do expect that to continue into the fall and also next spring and as I said I think in my prepared remarks, or maybe in Q&A cant remember but cause.
<unk> is the number one retail dollar display gains year to date so.
Gavin Hattersley: So, you know, we're working hard at making sure that shelf resets reflect the current reality in the marketplace, which shows that there is a strong momentum behind all of our core brands.
Gavin Hattersley: So, you know, we're working hard at making sure that shelf resets reflect the current reality in the marketplace, which shows that there is a strong momentum behind all of our core brands.
We're working hard at making sure that.
<unk> reflect the current reality in the marketplace, which shows that there is a strong momentum behind.
All of our core brands.
Operator: Thanks, Nadine. Our next question comes from Filippo Falorni from Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Operator: Thanks, Nadine. Our next question comes from Filippo Falorni from Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Thanks again, our next question comes from Philippe <unk> from Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Gavin Hattersley: Looks like we may have lost Filippo from Citi, Nadine. No, not Nadine, operator.
Gavin Hattersley: Looks like we may have lost Filippo from Citi, Nadine. No, not Nadine, operator.
Looks like we May have lost <unk> from Citi.
No not at all.
Operator.
Operator: Filippo, if you want to... Your line is now open. Please ask your question. Okay, moving on to the next question. Our next question is from Eric Serotta from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Operator: Filippo, if you want to... Your line is now open. Please ask your question. Okay, moving on to the next question. Our next question is from Eric Serotta from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Philip if you want to.
Your line is now open please ask your question.
Okay moving on to the next question.
Our next question is from Eric <unk> from Morgan Stanley . Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Gavin Hattersley: Doesn't sound like Eric's there either, operator.
Gavin Hattersley: Doesn't sound like Eric's there either, operator.
Sounds like Eric's there either operator.
Eric Serotta: Hello? Can you hear me?
Eric Serotta: Hello? Can you hear me?
Hello can you hear me.
Gavin Hattersley: Now we can hear you, Eric.
Gavin Hattersley: Now we can hear you, Eric.
Operator: All right, we can hear you. Go ahead.
Operator: All right, we can hear you. Go ahead.
Now we can hear you.
Hey, Ken Hey, Hey go ahead.
Eric Serotta: ... Oh, great. Sorry about that. Just wanted to circle back on the shipments versus depletions. Not to beat a dead horse here, but is the implication correct that shipments are expected to again lag depletions for Q3, and that inventory rebuild would happen largely in Q4? And do you expect shipments and depletions to still be broadly in line for the full year? Or do you think it'll take until Q1, early next year in order for the two to converge?
Eric Serotta: ... Oh, great. Sorry about that. Just wanted to circle back on the shipments versus depletions. Not to beat a dead horse here, but is the implication correct that shipments are expected to again lag depletions for Q3, and that inventory rebuild would happen largely in Q4? And do you expect shipments and depletions to still be broadly in line for the full year? Or do you think it'll take until Q1, early next year in order for the two to converge?
Oh, sorry.
Sorry about that.
Just wanted to circle back on the shipments versus Depletions not to beat a dead horse here, but.
Is the implication correct that.
Shipments will are expected to again lag depletions for the third quarter.
That inventory rebuild would happen largely in the fourth quarter and do you expect shipments and depletions to still.
Be broadly in line for the full year or do you think it will take until.
<unk> first quarter early next year in order for that to converge.
Tracey Joubert: Yeah. Hi, Eric, it's Tracy here. So look, you know, we're gonna monitor this very closely. You know, obviously, our, our, distributor inventory levels, as Gavin mentioned, you know, over the sort of, holiday periods will fall, and then, you know, we'll grow it again. Typically, we grow on the shoulder quarters, so, you know, the, the Q1 and Q4. But we're monitoring it very carefully. I mean, right now, you know, we focus on making sure that we have enough inventory to meet the demand, and that, that our distributors have enough, inventory to meet their demand. So, you know, as we get further into the year, you know, we'll continue to, to balance that. And again, just really focus on making sure we've got beer on the floor.
Tracey Joubert: Yeah. Hi, Eric, it's Tracy here. So look, you know, we're gonna monitor this very closely. You know, obviously, our, our, distributor inventory levels, as Gavin mentioned, you know, over the sort of, holiday periods will fall, and then, you know, we'll grow it again. Typically, we grow on the shoulder quarters, so, you know, the, the Q1 and Q4. But we're monitoring it very carefully. I mean, right now, you know, we focus on making sure that we have enough inventory to meet the demand, and that, that our distributors have enough, inventory to meet their demand. So, you know, as we get further into the year, you know, we'll continue to, to balance that. And again, just really focus on making sure we've got beer on the floor.
Yeah, Hi, Eric It's Tracy So look we're going to monitor this very closely obviously.
Distributor inventory levels as Kevin mentioned.
Over this.
Holiday periods will fall and then we'll grow it again typically because on the shoulder quarters.
<unk> quarter in the fourth quarter and battery monitoring it very carefully I mean, right now we focus on making sure that we have in our inventory to meet the demand.
And that our distributors have enough inventory to meet the demand.
As we get further into the year, we will continue to balance that.
And again, just really focused on making sure we've got there on the floor.
Eric Serotta: Great. And then, bigger picture question for you, Gavin. You referenced several times the weaker US beer industry trend. Hoping you could unpack what you see as the key drivers there. Do you think that the situation at your competitor is having a spillover effect in terms of overall industry? You know, we've seen the beer industry, from a volume perspective, weaken this year, at a time when spirit volume growth has certainly slowed quite dramatically. So any color as to your take on what's driving the industry weakness would be helpful.
Eric Serotta: Great. And then, bigger picture question for you, Gavin. You referenced several times the weaker US beer industry trend. Hoping you could unpack what you see as the key drivers there. Do you think that the situation at your competitor is having a spillover effect in terms of overall industry? You know, we've seen the beer industry, from a volume perspective, weaken this year, at a time when spirit volume growth has certainly slowed quite dramatically. So any color as to your take on what's driving the industry weakness would be helpful.
Great and then a bigger quick bigger picture question for you Gavin.
You referenced several times the weaker U S beer industry trend.
Hoping you could unpack what you see as the key drivers there.
Do you think that the situation that your competitor is.
Having a spillover effect in terms of overall industry.
We've seen the beer industry from a volume perspective weekend. This year at a time when spirit's volume growth has certainly slowed quite dramatically. So any color as to your take on what's driving the industry weakness would be helpful.
Gavin Hattersley: Sure. Thanks, Eric. Yeah, look, I mean, the US industry in 2023 has been softer than expected. There are obviously a number of drivers behind that. You know, on the West Coast, particularly California, big beer drinking market, we had some really difficult weather conditions in the first part of the year, and so that challenged the overall industry. And then I think it's true to say that we've had higher than expected declines in the overall seltzer segment. You know, our data from Circana would suggest that there's actually been a slight improvement in Q2 when you compare it with Q1, and an improvement from an overall industry point of view versus the second half of last year.
Gavin Hattersley: Sure. Thanks, Eric. Yeah, look, I mean, the US industry in 2023 has been softer than expected. There are obviously a number of drivers behind that. You know, on the West Coast, particularly California, big beer drinking market, we had some really difficult weather conditions in the first part of the year, and so that challenged the overall industry. And then I think it's true to say that we've had higher than expected declines in the overall seltzer segment. You know, our data from Circana would suggest that there's actually been a slight improvement in Q2 when you compare it with Q1, and an improvement from an overall industry point of view versus the second half of last year.
Sure. Thanks, Eric.
Yes look I mean, the U S industry in 2023 has been softer than expected. There are obviously a number of drivers behind that.
The West Coast, particularly California.
<unk> market, we've had some some really difficult weather conditions in the first part of the year and so that challenge. The overall industry and then I think it's true to say that we've had higher than expected declines in the overall seltzer segment.
Sure.
Our data would from <unk>.
Would suggest that this would be actually been a slight improvement in Q2, when you compare it with them.
With Q1 and an improvement.
Overall industry point of view versus second half of last year.
Gavin Hattersley: You know, we do think that some of the bigger drivers of these trends are lifestyle choices, some buyers shifting to other categories. However, you know, core beer drinkers are incredibly loyal and have maintained their share of dollars and volume in beer. So, you know, while we have seen some pretty seismic shifts across the industry, you know, fueled by the continued growth in Mexican imports and fabs, and obviously the disruption in the ABI portfolio, our brands, Coors Light, Miller Lite, growing industry share. So what really matters here for us is that more consumers are reaching for our beers versus our competitors' beers, regardless of the segment that they are purchasing from.
Gavin Hattersley: You know, we do think that some of the bigger drivers of these trends are lifestyle choices, some buyers shifting to other categories. However, you know, core beer drinkers are incredibly loyal and have maintained their share of dollars and volume in beer. So, you know, while we have seen some pretty seismic shifts across the industry, you know, fueled by the continued growth in Mexican imports and fabs, and obviously the disruption in the ABI portfolio, our brands, Coors Light, Miller Lite, growing industry share. So what really matters here for us is that more consumers are reaching for our beers versus our competitors' beers, regardless of the segment that they are purchasing from.
We do think that some of the bigger drivers of these trends are lifestyle choices some buyers shifting too.
Categories.
However, core beer drinkers are incredibly loyal and have maintained their share of dollars and volume.
MBS.
We have seen some some pretty seismic shifts across the industry.
Fueled by the continued growth in Mexican imports in Fabs and obviously, the the disruption in the ABR.
Portfolio.
Our brands Coors light Miller lite growing industry share.
What really matters.
For us is that more consumers are reaching for obvious.
<unk>.
Competitors bids regardless of the of the segment.
That they are purchasing from.
Gavin Hattersley: So that, those are the comments I would have from an overall industry point of view, Eric.
Gavin Hattersley: So that, those are the comments I would have from an overall industry point of view, Eric.
But those are the comments I would have from an overall industry point of view.
Operator: Thanks, Eric. Our next question comes from Peter Grom from UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Operator: Thanks, Eric. Our next question comes from Peter Grom from UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Erik our next question comes from Peter Grom from UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Peter Grom: Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. So Gavin, this may be a hard question to answer, as we're still really only halfway through this year, but I would love to get your perspective on how you see the company's growth algorithm evolving in light of the share shifts we're seeing. Obviously, you know, great to see the share gains, but you're also kind of increasing your exposure to an area of the industry where growth has been challenged for some time. And I know you'd previously communicated that you expect to exit this year with stronger bottom line growth versus the low single digits originally targeted for this year. So I would just be curious, how do you think about the ability to kind of grow off of this elevated base, especially as some of these share gains prove to be less durable? Thanks.
Peter Grom: Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. So Gavin, this may be a hard question to answer, as we're still really only halfway through this year, but I would love to get your perspective on how you see the company's growth algorithm evolving in light of the share shifts we're seeing. Obviously, you know, great to see the share gains, but you're also kind of increasing your exposure to an area of the industry where growth has been challenged for some time. And I know you'd previously communicated that you expect to exit this year with stronger bottom line growth versus the low single digits originally targeted for this year. So I would just be curious, how do you think about the ability to kind of grow off of this elevated base, especially as some of these share gains prove to be less durable? Thanks.
Thanks, operator, good morning, everyone. So Gavin this is maybe a hard question to answer is we're still really only halfway through this year, but I would love to get your perspective on how you see the company's growth algorithm evolving in light of the share shifts we're seeing obviously great to see the share gains, but you are also kind of increasing your exposure to an area again.
History, where growth has been challenged for some time and I know you had previously communicated that you expect to exit this year with stronger bottom line growth versus the low single digits originally targeted for this year.
I would just be curious how do you think about the ability to kind of grow off of this elevated pace, especially as some of these share gains prove to be less durable. Thanks.
Gavin Hattersley: Yeah, thanks, Peter. Look, obviously, we'll share a lot more detail when we have our Strategy Day in October, but I'll make a few points ahead of that. You know, when we started down the journey of our revitalization plan, we wanted to deliver top and bottom-line growth on a sustainable basis, not just once every now and then. So that's the first thing I would say to you. That's how we measure ourselves. Secondly, we're seeing share and brand improvement in every single one of the markets that we operate in. So this is not just the United States. We're seeing it in Canada, we're seeing it in the United Kingdom. You know, in the US, we're the number one dollar share gainer in Q2.
Gavin Hattersley: Yeah, thanks, Peter. Look, obviously, we'll share a lot more detail when we have our Strategy Day in October, but I'll make a few points ahead of that. You know, when we started down the journey of our revitalization plan, we wanted to deliver top and bottom-line growth on a sustainable basis, not just once every now and then. So that's the first thing I would say to you. That's how we measure ourselves. Secondly, we're seeing share and brand improvement in every single one of the markets that we operate in. So this is not just the United States. We're seeing it in Canada, we're seeing it in the United Kingdom. You know, in the US, we're the number one dollar share gainer in Q2.
Yes, Thanks Peter.
Obviously, we will share a lot more detail when we have our strategy day in October , but I'll make a few points ahead of that when we started on the journey of our revitalization plan, we wanted to deliver top and bottom line growth on a sustainable basis not just once you bring on them. So that's the first thing I would I would say to you that that's how we are.
Sure ourselves.
Secondly, we're seeing our share in.
Brand improvement in every single one of the markets that we operate in so this is not just the United States, we're seeing it in Canada, we're seeing it in the United Kingdom.
In the U S with the number one dollar share gainer in in the second quarter of candidates, one and a half four points from a volume perspective thats through may because we don't have a more recent data than that.
Gavin Hattersley: Canada's up 1.5 points from a volume perspective. That's through May, because we don't have more recent data than that. We grew, you know, premium lights dollar share almost 11%. Canada premium beer is up 2.4. In the FAB segment, we grew industry and the segment. We grew all of our core brands in the United States and Canada, grew industry share, and we continued to grow our economy segment performance from an improvement point of view. Our job is to make sure that we maintain and retain as many, and frankly, more of these consumers that are moving to our brands. It's one of the reasons we're investing $100 million more in the back half of the year.
Gavin Hattersley: Canada's up 1.5 points from a volume perspective. That's through May, because we don't have more recent data than that. We grew, you know, premium lights dollar share almost 11%. Canada premium beer is up 2.4. In the FAB segment, we grew industry and the segment. We grew all of our core brands in the United States and Canada, grew industry share, and we continued to grow our economy segment performance from an improvement point of view. Our job is to make sure that we maintain and retain as many, and frankly, more of these consumers that are moving to our brands. It's one of the reasons we're investing $100 million more in the back half of the year.
Premium large dollar share.
Almost 11%.
Canada premium beer is up to four.
In the F&B segment, we grew industry and the segment. We grew all of our core brands in the United States and Canada grew industry.
Sure and we continued to grow our economy segment performance from pro from an improvement point of view our job is to make sure that we maintain and retain.
And frankly more of these consumers that are moving to our brands is one of the reasons, we're investing $100 million more in the back half of the year, that's a significant investment and commitment to the momentum that we're experiencing and we're seeing that in the data. We're seeing the 12. The handle is the new tap handles we're getting we're seeing the shelf set.
Gavin Hattersley: That's a significant investment and commitment to the momentum that we're experiencing. And we're seeing that in the data. We're seeing the handles, the new tap handles we're getting. We're seeing the shelf set changes. We're seeing the display dollar share gains. And we're gonna push hard to maintain that and more, Peter. So, you know, I think I think I'll stop there ahead of our Strategy Day, but we'll share more with you in early October.
Gavin Hattersley: That's a significant investment and commitment to the momentum that we're experiencing. And we're seeing that in the data. We're seeing the handles, the new tap handles we're getting. We're seeing the shelf set changes. We're seeing the display dollar share gains. And we're gonna push hard to maintain that and more, Peter. So, you know, I think I think I'll stop there ahead of our Strategy Day, but we'll share more with you in early October.
Changes we're seeing.
Display.
<unk> guidance.
And we're going to.
Pushed hard to maintain that and.
And more.
Peter So.
I think.
I think I'll stop there ahead of our strategy day, but we will share more with you in early October .
Operator: Thanks, Peter. Our next question comes from Lauren Lieberman from Barclays. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Operator: Thanks, Peter. Our next question comes from Lauren Lieberman from Barclays. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Peter next question comes from Lauren Lieberman from Barclays. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Lauren Lieberman: Great, thanks. I was curious if you could talk a little bit about operating leverage, 'cause I know a couple of times, you know, Gavin and Tracy both referenced that Q2 is normally a time when you're producing, you know, pretty close to, you know, full capacity. So as we think about the balance of the year and starting to see, you know, these structural share shifts in, in, in market share persist, if the higher volume growth, if we start to see more operating leverage kind of on a year-over-year basis, because the delta is bigger in the so-called shoulder quarters than would have been, for example, in Q2, meaning the upside in your production volume is actually higher later in the year versus Q2, because this is already a seasonally very strong volume production period.
Lauren Lieberman: Great, thanks. I was curious if you could talk a little bit about operating leverage, 'cause I know a couple of times, you know, Gavin and Tracy both referenced that Q2 is normally a time when you're producing, you know, pretty close to, you know, full capacity. So as we think about the balance of the year and starting to see, you know, these structural share shifts in, in, in market share persist, if the higher volume growth, if we start to see more operating leverage kind of on a year-over-year basis, because the delta is bigger in the so-called shoulder quarters than would have been, for example, in Q2, meaning the upside in your production volume is actually higher later in the year versus Q2, because this is already a seasonally very strong volume production period.
Great. Thanks.
I was curious if you could talk a little bit about operating leverage because I know a couple of times.
Gavin and Tracey both referenced that <unk> is normally at a time, when you're producing pretty close to full capacity.
As we think about the balance of the year and starting to see these structural share shifts in.
And market share persist.
If the higher volume growth that we start to see more operating leverage kind of on a year over year basis, because the delta is bigger in the so-called shoulder quarters.
<unk> would have been for example in <unk>, meaning the upside in your production volume is actually higher later in the year versus <unk> because it is already a seasonally very strong volume production period.
Tracey Joubert: Yeah. So maybe let me, let me help, maybe give a little bit of color and maybe a little bit more detail around our leverage and operating leverage. So, on an enterprise basis, our fixed costs comprise about 20% of our enterprise underlying COGS. So now that does differ by geography and, you know, the composition, as the composition of our year-over-year volume changes, it can influence that. But on average, for enterprise COGS makeup is about 20% fixed. And then obviously, you know, as we look at operating leverage, our marketing strategy also supports flexibility, which does allow us to put the right commercial pressure behind our brands.
Tracey Joubert: Yeah. So maybe let me, let me help, maybe give a little bit of color and maybe a little bit more detail around our leverage and operating leverage. So, on an enterprise basis, our fixed costs comprise about 20% of our enterprise underlying COGS. So now that does differ by geography and, you know, the composition, as the composition of our year-over-year volume changes, it can influence that. But on average, for enterprise COGS makeup is about 20% fixed. And then obviously, you know, as we look at operating leverage, our marketing strategy also supports flexibility, which does allow us to put the right commercial pressure behind our brands.
Yes, So maybe let me let me help maybe give a little bit of color and maybe a little bit more detail.
Around our leverage and operating <unk>.
And on an enterprise basis.
Cross comprise back at 20% of our enterprise underlying Cogs.
Now that does differ by geography and.
The composition as the composition composition of a year over year volume changes that can influence that but but on average for enterprise Cogs backup is about 20%.
And then obviously as we look at operating leverage.
Our marketing strategy also support flexibility, which does allow us to.
Put the rock commercial push it behind our brands and so it's.
Tracey Joubert: So, you know, as Gavin mentioned, we're gonna be spending $100 million more in marketing in the back half of the year. And then, you know, just from a, you know, overall sort of margin driver as well, you know, we've mentioned the PEPs contract coming to an end. That's certainly going to help our margins, even though, you know, it is a revenue loss, but overall, you know, a margin expansion as well as a lot of these efficiency projects that we've been working on, our ongoing cost savings, that's all gonna help, you know, drive that margin expansion over the medium term and this year.
Tracey Joubert: So, you know, as Gavin mentioned, we're gonna be spending $100 million more in marketing in the back half of the year. And then, you know, just from a, you know, overall sort of margin driver as well, you know, we've mentioned the PEPs contract coming to an end. That's certainly going to help our margins, even though, you know, it is a revenue loss, but overall, you know, a margin expansion as well as a lot of these efficiency projects that we've been working on, our ongoing cost savings, that's all gonna help, you know, drive that margin expansion over the medium term and this year.
Kevin mentioned, we're going to be spending $100 million.
More in marketing in the back half of the year.
And then.
Just from a from a overall sort of margin driver as well we've mentioned the pet contract coming to an end that safely.
To help our.
Our margins, even though it is a revenue loss, but overall.
Our margin expansion as well as a lot of these efficiency projects that we've been working on and our ongoing cost savings that's all going to help.
Drop back margin expansion at the medium to end this year.
Operator: Our next question comes from Robert Ottenstein from Evercore. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Operator: Our next question comes from Robert Ottenstein from Evercore. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Our next question comes from Rob.
<unk> <unk> from Evercore. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Robert Ottenstein: Great, thank you very much. Just a couple of follow-ups. Gavin, first you mentioned that on-premise was stronger than off-premise, but I can't- I'm not sure I heard by how much, you know, how much the on-premise was up. And you mentioned that you won 12,000 tap handles, I think in Q2. Can you give us a sense of what that is as a percentage of total tap handles? And then second, we're seeing and hearing about some weakness in the market overall in the below premium side. Is that something that you're also seeing in your, you know, not just in your business, but in the market overall? Thank you.
Robert Ottenstein: Great, thank you very much. Just a couple of follow-ups. Gavin, first you mentioned that on-premise was stronger than off-premise, but I can't- I'm not sure I heard by how much, you know, how much the on-premise was up. And you mentioned that you won 12,000 tap handles, I think in Q2. Can you give us a sense of what that is as a percentage of total tap handles? And then second, we're seeing and hearing about some weakness in the market overall in the below premium side. Is that something that you're also seeing in your, you know, not just in your business, but in the market overall? Thank you.
Great. Thank you very much just a couple of follow ups.
Kevin.
First you mentioned that on premise was stronger than off but I can't I'm not sure I heard by how much.
How much the on premise was up and you mentioned that you won 12000 tap handles.
I think in Q2 can you give us a sense of what that is as a percentage of total cap tap handles.
And then second.
We're seeing and hearing about some weakness in the market overall and the below premium side is that something that you're also seeing in your.
Not just in your business, but in the market overall, thank you.
Gavin Hattersley: Thanks, Rob. Lots of questions there. I'll take your last one first. No, we're not seeing any slowdown in our economy portfolio. As far as on versus off-premise, you didn't hear it because I didn't say it. And we're not gonna get into that level of detail, but suffice it to say that on-premise grew, you know, I would say maybe low single digits better than the off-premise. What was your second question?
Gavin Hattersley: Thanks, Rob. Lots of questions there. I'll take your last one first. No, we're not seeing any slowdown in our economy portfolio. As far as on versus off-premise, you didn't hear it because I didn't say it. And we're not gonna get into that level of detail, but suffice it to say that on-premise grew, you know, I would say maybe low single digits better than the off-premise. What was your second question?
Thanks, Rob lots of questions there.
I'll take your last one first no we're not seeing any slowdown in our economy portfolio.
As far as on versus off premise you didn't hear because I didn't say it.
We're not going to get into that level of detail, but suffice it to say that on premise grew.
I would say, maybe low single digits better than.
And.
In the off premise.
What was your second question.
Tracey Joubert: Tap handles.
Tracey Joubert: Tap handles.
Gavin Hattersley: Oh, and the tap handles. It's a meaningful number, Rob, and that's only Miller Lite, Coors Light, and Blue Moon, which I referenced. Let's say, I'm not sure we've given this before, but let's say around 10% higher. Meaningful for us.
Gavin Hattersley: Oh, and the tap handles. It's a meaningful number, Rob, and that's only Miller Lite, Coors Light, and Blue Moon, which I referenced. Let's say, I'm not sure we've given this before, but let's say around 10% higher. Meaningful for us.
The tap handles.
It's a meaningful number Rob and Thats already Miller, Coors light and Blue Moon, which are which are our reference and let's say.
Sure we've given this before but let's say around 10% higher.
Meaningful for us.
Operator: Thanks, Rob. The next question comes from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Operator: Thanks, Rob. The next question comes from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Rob Our next question comes from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Christopher Carey: Hey, everyone. One quick question just on, you know, the investment plan for the back half of the year. You know, just given the year-to-date strength, makes total sense. I'm trying to understand, you know, the tight capacity relative to the investment. It sounds like you're keeping up with demand, but just, have you contemplated a dynamic where this accelerated investment into the back half of the year accelerates demand, but you're not able to keep up with the demand? You know, I totally understand the brand building for, you know, the medium to longer term, which makes complete sense. But it does sound like this is going to be supportive of, you know, perhaps even higher demand.
Christopher Carey: Hey, everyone. One quick question just on, you know, the investment plan for the back half of the year. You know, just given the year-to-date strength, makes total sense. I'm trying to understand, you know, the tight capacity relative to the investment. It sounds like you're keeping up with demand, but just, have you contemplated a dynamic where this accelerated investment into the back half of the year accelerates demand, but you're not able to keep up with the demand? You know, I totally understand the brand building for, you know, the medium to longer term, which makes complete sense. But it does sound like this is going to be supportive of, you know, perhaps even higher demand.
Hey, everyone.
One quick question just on the investment plan for the back half of the year just given the year to date strength. Thanks makes total sense I'm trying to understand.
The tight capacity relative to the investment.
It sounds like Youre, keeping up with demand, but just.
Have you contemplated a dynamic where this accelerated investment in the back half year accelerates demand.
We're not able to keep up with demand I totally understand the brand building for the <unk>.
Medium to longer term, which.
Makes complete sense.
But.
Does sound like this is going to be supportive of.
Christopher Carey: I'm just trying to frame, you know, how much excess capacity you might see in the system, if indeed you do see a, you know, step up in line with this, increased investment activity in the back half. So thanks so much for that.
Perhaps you could hire demanded them I'm just trying to frame how much. Thanks.
Christopher Carey: I'm just trying to frame, you know, how much excess capacity you might see in the system, if indeed you do see a, you know, step up in line with this, increased investment activity in the back half. So thanks so much for that.
Yes capacity you might you might see in the system. If indeed, you do see step.
A step up in line with this.
Increased investment activity in the back half so thanks, so much for that.
Gavin Hattersley: Thanks, Chris. Look, our tightest period obviously is always during the summer. We always see a falloff after major holidays, just like we did on July 4. And we're currently rebuilding the inventory as we speak, and we'll continue to rebuild it in August. And then we'll have a falloff coming out of September. And, you know, then, you know, overall, a consumer takeoff traditionally does fall off in the Q4. So it provides us a good opportunity to get inventories back to where we would like to have them going into next year. Our marketing activities, as I said, is not just limited to the US.
Gavin Hattersley: Thanks, Chris. Look, our tightest period obviously is always during the summer. We always see a falloff after major holidays, just like we did on July 4. And we're currently rebuilding the inventory as we speak, and we'll continue to rebuild it in August. And then we'll have a falloff coming out of September. And, you know, then, you know, overall, a consumer takeoff traditionally does fall off in the Q4. So it provides us a good opportunity to get inventories back to where we would like to have them going into next year. Our marketing activities, as I said, is not just limited to the US.
Thanks, Chris look our tightest period, obviously as always during the during the summer we always see a falloff after major holidays, just like we did in July the fourth and we're currently rebuilding the inventory.
As we speak and we will continue to rebuild the team in August .
We will have a fall off coming out of September .
Then.
Overall consumer.
Consumer takeoff traditionally does fall off in the in the fourth quarter. So it provides us.
A good opportunity to get inventories back to where we would like to have them going into into next year.
Marketing activities as I said is not just limited to the United States, we are putting more money into other markets as well behind the momentum of the brand like mid three behind the Coors lots of Molson trademark brands.
Gavin Hattersley: We are putting more money into our other markets, as well, behind the momentum of a brand like Madri, behind the Coors Light and Molson trademark brands up in Canada, behind some strength in certain territories in our Latin America business. But it is also true to say the lion's share is in the United States. And frankly, there, you know, at a very, very high level, there's two kinds of marketing, right, and selling expenses. Some drive shorter term behavior, which we're investing behind, and some drives longer term brand health, and we're going to be doing both.
Gavin Hattersley: We are putting more money into our other markets, as well, behind the momentum of a brand like Madri, behind the Coors Light and Molson trademark brands up in Canada, behind some strength in certain territories in our Latin America business. But it is also true to say the lion's share is in the United States. And frankly, there, you know, at a very, very high level, there's two kinds of marketing, right, and selling expenses. Some drive shorter term behavior, which we're investing behind, and some drives longer term brand health, and we're going to be doing both.
Wrapping up in Canada behind some strength in certain territories in our Latin America business.
It's also true to say the lion's share is in the United States.
Frankly there.
And at a very very high levels, two kinds of marketing and selling expenses some drive shorter term behavior, which we're investing behind and some drives longer term.
Brand health and we are going to be doing so.
Gavin Hattersley: So, you know, as I said, we don't have unlimited capacity, but certainly PEPs coming out of our system, and then the, you know, shoulder quarters, as I think Lauren referenced in the fourth quarter and the first quarter, give us ample opportunity to maintain inventory and supplies where we want them to be.
Gavin Hattersley: So, you know, as I said, we don't have unlimited capacity, but certainly PEPs coming out of our system, and then the, you know, shoulder quarters, as I think Lauren referenced in the fourth quarter and the first quarter, give us ample opportunity to maintain inventory and supplies where we want them to be.
And as I said, we don't have unlimited capacity.
But certainly perhaps coming out of our system and then the.
Shoulder quarters as I think.
Lauren referenced in the fourth quarter and the first quarter gives us ample opportunity to maintain.
Maintain inventory and suppliers, where we want them to be.
Operator: Thanks, Chris. Our next question comes from Brian Spillane from Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Operator: Thanks, Chris. Our next question comes from Brian Spillane from Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Chris Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane from Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Bryan Spillane: Hi. Thanks, operator. Good morning, Gavin. Good morning, Tracy. I just had two sort of related questions about free cash flow. One, Tracy, if you could just talk about the 2.5x leverage target and, you know, just why that's a, you know, kind of an, a desirable target, just given how, you know, much cash flow the company throws off, and it just seems a little bit conservative. So just kind of what the thinking was there in terms of getting to the 2.5x, and then I just had one other related follow-up.
Bryan Spillane: Hi. Thanks, operator. Good morning, Gavin. Good morning, Tracy. I just had two sort of related questions about free cash flow. One, Tracy, if you could just talk about the 2.5x leverage target and, you know, just why that's a, you know, kind of an, a desirable target, just given how, you know, much cash flow the company throws off, and it just seems a little bit conservative. So just kind of what the thinking was there in terms of getting to the 2.5x, and then I just had one other related follow-up.
Alright, Thanks, operator, good morning, Kevin Good morning Tracy.
Yes.
Just had two sort of related question is about free cash flow.
<unk> Tracy.
Could just talk about the.
The two five times leverage target and.
Just just why that.
Kind of.
Desirable target just given how.
How much cash flow tap throughout the company throws off.
It just seems a little bit conservative so just kind of what the thinking was there in terms of getting to the two five times and then I just had one other related follow up.
Tracey Joubert: Yeah. So, look, we did a lot of analysis, you know, what was the desirable leverage target for us to have, and we got to the 2.5x. And, you know, remember, we've been very vocal and, you know, made sure that we maintain our investment grade rating. And over time, we want to improve our investment grade rating. And so, you know, it makes sense for us to continue to look at that leverage ratio, you know, reduce our net debt if, you know, that drives us towards that upgrade in terms of investment grade. So, yeah, it's just really important to us, and so we'll continue to look at that, Brian.
Tracey Joubert: Yeah. So, look, we did a lot of analysis, you know, what was the desirable leverage target for us to have, and we got to the 2.5x. And, you know, remember, we've been very vocal and, you know, made sure that we maintain our investment grade rating. And over time, we want to improve our investment grade rating. And so, you know, it makes sense for us to continue to look at that leverage ratio, you know, reduce our net debt if, you know, that drives us towards that upgrade in terms of investment grade. So, yeah, it's just really important to us, and so we'll continue to look at that, Brian.
Yes.
Look we did a lot of analysis.
It was the desirable and leverage target for us to have and we got to the two and a half Thompson.
Linda.
Sure.
Being very.
Vocal and made sure that we maintain our investment grade rating and and over time, we want to improve our investment grade.
Writing and so.
It makes sense for us to continue to look at that leverage ratio.
Reduce our net debt.
And drives us towards that.
Upgrade in terms of investment grade.
Yeah.
It's really important to us and so we'll continue to look at that.
Bryan Spillane: Okay. And then the $1.2 billion ±10% free cash flow guidance increase for the year. You know, I think one of the questions we're getting today is just if you were to hold on to, you know, the benefits that accrued to the company this year, would that be a normal cash flow? Or, you know, were there other things like capital spending coming down or just other things that the free cash flow conversion, you know, if we're sort of rebase the company from here, could be higher, you know?
Bryan Spillane: Okay. And then the $1.2 billion ±10% free cash flow guidance increase for the year. You know, I think one of the questions we're getting today is just if you were to hold on to, you know, the benefits that accrued to the company this year, would that be a normal cash flow? Or, you know, were there other things like capital spending coming down or just other things that the free cash flow conversion, you know, if we're sort of rebase the company from here, could be higher, you know?
Brian .
Okay, and then the $1 $2 billion of breakeven plus or minus 10% free cash flow guidance increase for the year.
Is it I.
I think one of the questions. We're getting today is just if you were to hold on to the benefits that accrue to the company this year.
Would that be a normal cash flow or.
Or were there other things like capital spending coming down or just all the things that the free cash flow conversion.
We're sort of Rebase the company from here.
Could be higher.
Bryan Spillane: Or put another way, you know, would free cash flow necessarily, you know, be higher even for this year if there weren't some other sort of unusual things pulling on cash?
Bryan Spillane: Or put another way, you know, would free cash flow necessarily, you know, be higher even for this year if there weren't some other sort of unusual things pulling on cash?
Or put another way.
Free cash flow necessarily be higher even for this year, if there werent. Some some other sort of unusual things pulling on cash.
Tracey Joubert: No, I mean, look, obviously, you know, capital expenditure is one of the things that we look at, but I think we've been quite consistent with our capital expenditure. And we've also said that, you know, any investments we make is not gonna drive our capital expenditure up significantly. And even the investments that we've made in new breweries in Canada, you know, we've built those two new modern breweries in Canada. We're busy modernizing our G150 brewery in Colorado. You know, we've built capabilities in our breweries, whether that be flavor capabilities or variety packing capabilities. All of that was within that range of around $700 million, which is the guidance that we've given for this year as well.
Tracey Joubert: No, I mean, look, obviously, you know, capital expenditure is one of the things that we look at, but I think we've been quite consistent with our capital expenditure. And we've also said that, you know, any investments we make is not gonna drive our capital expenditure up significantly. And even the investments that we've made in new breweries in Canada, you know, we've built those two new modern breweries in Canada. We're busy modernizing our G150 brewery in Colorado. You know, we've built capabilities in our breweries, whether that be flavor capabilities or variety packing capabilities. All of that was within that range of around $700 million, which is the guidance that we've given for this year as well.
No I mean look obviously.
Yes.
Capital expenditures is one of the things that we look at but I think we've been quite consistent with our capital expenditure and we've also feedback.
And any investments we make is not going to drive our capital expenditure up significantly and even the basis that we have made in new breweries in Canada with purpose to new modern breweries in Canada, we busy modernizing <unk> brewery in Colorado with boats and capabilities in our breweries weighted equity flavor capability.
These overarching packing and capabilities all of that with within that range of around $700 million, which is the guidance that we've given for this year as well so I don't see a significant uptick in in anything capex related or anything unusual I mean, the one thing is at the end of the year all the.
Tracey Joubert: So, you know, don't see a significant uptick in anything CapEx related or anything unusual. I mean, the one thing is, at the end of the year, obviously, working capital will be a driver of our free cash flow. But yeah, nothing out of the ordinary.
Tracey Joubert: So, you know, don't see a significant uptick in anything CapEx related or anything unusual. I mean, the one thing is, at the end of the year, obviously, working capital will be a driver of our free cash flow. But yeah, nothing out of the ordinary.
Working capital will be a driver of our free cash flow.
But yes, nothing nothing out of the orderly.
Operator: Thanks, Brian. Our next question comes from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Operator: Thanks, Brian. Our next question comes from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Brian Our next question comes from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Steve Powers: Yeah. Hey, thanks, and good morning. I wanted to just revisit the capacity question in the US, maybe from a different perspective. I think, you know, both in the quarter and year to date, the financial volumes you shipped in the Americas, you know, lagged what you were able to ship in the first half of both 2020 and 2021. And I guess I'm just... Is that... is there a reason for that? Is that reflective of capacity that you've taken out of the system at that point?
Steve Powers: Yeah. Hey, thanks, and good morning. I wanted to just revisit the capacity question in the US, maybe from a different perspective. I think, you know, both in the quarter and year to date, the financial volumes you shipped in the Americas, you know, lagged what you were able to ship in the first half of both 2020 and 2021. And I guess I'm just... Is that... is there a reason for that? Is that reflective of capacity that you've taken out of the system at that point?
Hey, Thanks, and good morning.
I wanted to just revisit the capacity question in the U S. Maybe from a different perspective.
I think both in the quarter and year to date.
The financial volumes you shifted in the Americas lags, what you were able to ship in the first half of both 2020 in 2021.
I guess I'm just is that.
Is that is there a reason for that is that reflective of capacity that you've taken out of the system at that point.
Greg Tierney: ... I'm thinking about it, you know, as I look to the back half, and just trying to think about a theoretical max on what you might be able to ship and, you know, using that same logic, I think in the back half of 2020 and 2021, you shipped 32, 33 million hectoliters. I just-- Is that, is that feasible in 2023, or is the capacity just not there?
Greg Tierney: ... I'm thinking about it, you know, as I look to the back half, and just trying to think about a theoretical max on what you might be able to ship and, you know, using that same logic, I think in the back half of 2020 and 2021, you shipped 32, 33 million hectoliters. I just-- Is that, is that feasible in 2023, or is the capacity just not there?
And I'm thinking about it.
As I look to the back half, but I'm just trying to think about a theoretical Max on what you might be able to ship in <unk>.
And that same logic I think in the back half of 2020 in 2021 you shift.
$32 million to $33 million extra leaders I just is that is that feasible in 2023 or as the capacity just not there.
Gavin Hattersley: Yeah. Steve, look, we don't have unlimited capacity, as I said. But obviously, we had a strong May and June shipments, well above anything that you would have seen in 2020, 2021, 2022. Just, you know, obviously, I think I've made the point, we had higher inventories coming into the second quarter at the end of March, and, you know, that might have affected, you know, some of our some of our shipments in the sort of first part of April. So there is that as well.
Gavin Hattersley: Yeah. Steve, look, we don't have unlimited capacity, as I said. But obviously, we had a strong May and June shipments, well above anything that you would have seen in 2020, 2021, 2022. Just, you know, obviously, I think I've made the point, we had higher inventories coming into the second quarter at the end of March, and, you know, that might have affected, you know, some of our some of our shipments in the sort of first part of April. So there is that as well.
Yeah, Steve look we don't have unlimited capacity is as I said that.
But obviously.
We we had.
Strong may.
And June shipments well above anything that you would have seen in 2000 22021 and 2022.
Yes.
Obviously, I think I've made the point, we had higher inventories coming into the second quarter at the end of March and that might have affected.
Some of our some of our shipments in the in the sort of first part of <unk>.
Of April so there is that as well.
Gavin Hattersley: You know, we have long had a very robust program of seasonal workers and summer temporary workers, which, frankly, if we needed to, we could continue even into the slower quarters. You know, we traditionally haven't found that to be necessary, but in the event that it did, we could extend our summer, you know, brewery performance into the shoulder quarters. I'd also think, Steve, just to remind you, that we are seeing Pabst come out, and that will free up a lot of capacity for us, and it'll free up and simplify our breweries. There won't be so many changeovers. There'll be longer runs, much more effective and efficient.
Gavin Hattersley: You know, we have long had a very robust program of seasonal workers and summer temporary workers, which, frankly, if we needed to, we could continue even into the slower quarters. You know, we traditionally haven't found that to be necessary, but in the event that it did, we could extend our summer, you know, brewery performance into the shoulder quarters. I'd also think, Steve, just to remind you, that we are seeing Pabst come out, and that will free up a lot of capacity for us, and it'll free up and simplify our breweries. There won't be so many changeovers. There'll be longer runs, much more effective and efficient.
We have long had a.
A very robust program of seasonal workers and temporary workers.
Frankly, if we needed to we could we could continue even into the shoulder quarters.
Traditionally haven't found that to be to be necessary, but in the event that it did we could we could extend.
From a.
In our brewery performance into into the shoulder quarters.
Also I think.
Steve just to remind you that we are seeing perhaps come out and that will free up a lot of capacity for us and that will free up and simplify our breweries there won't be so many.
Changeovers there'll be longer runs much more effective.
Gavin Hattersley: As you know, Tracy said, we start to see the benefit of that coming through at a faster rate in the second half of this year, in the fourth quarter, and then we did it in the first half, and then obviously that'll accelerate even further into 2024. So, you know, based on what we know now, we've got the capacity to supply the market demand.
Gavin Hattersley: As you know, Tracy said, we start to see the benefit of that coming through at a faster rate in the second half of this year, in the fourth quarter, and then we did it in the first half, and then obviously that'll accelerate even further into 2024. So, you know, based on what we know now, we've got the capacity to supply the market demand.
Inefficient and as Tracy said, we start to see the benefit of that coming through at a faster rate in the second half of this year in the fourth quarter than we did in the first half and then obviously that will accelerate even further into into 'twenty 'twenty four so.
Based on what we know now we've got the capacity to supply the market demand.
Operator: Thanks, Steve. Our next question comes from Filippo Falorni from Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Operator: Thanks, Steve. Our next question comes from Filippo Falorni from Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Steve Our next question comes from Philippe <unk> from Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Filippo Falorni: Thanks. Can you guys hear me okay now?
Filippo Falorni: Thanks. Can you guys hear me okay now?
Can you guys hear me Okay now.
Gavin Hattersley: Yes, we can, Filippo.
Gavin Hattersley: Yes, we can, Filippo.
Filippo Falorni: Okay, great. Thank you. So I just wanna go back to your guidance for net sales growth on a constant currency basis of high single digits. It seems like, Gavin, you mentioned the momentum continuing Q3 in terms of Coors Light, Miller Lite, at the consumer level, you should have a little bit of financial volume, kind of recovery as you ship ahead of depletions to recover the inventories. So what, what... Can you help me square, like, what are the other headwinds other than the Pabst volume coming out in Q4, that you're assuming that it kind of slow the momentum as you're expecting the second half? Any other things that we should be aware of? Thank you.
Filippo Falorni: Okay, great. Thank you. So I just wanna go back to your guidance for net sales growth on a constant currency basis of high single digits. It seems like, Gavin, you mentioned the momentum continuing Q3 in terms of Coors Light, Miller Lite, at the consumer level, you should have a little bit of financial volume, kind of recovery as you ship ahead of depletions to recover the inventories. So what, what... Can you help me square, like, what are the other headwinds other than the Pabst volume coming out in Q4, that you're assuming that it kind of slow the momentum as you're expecting the second half? Any other things that we should be aware of? Thank you.
As we can for leber, okay, great. Thank you so much.
Just want to go back to the guidance for net sales growth on a constant currency basis, all of the high single digits. It seems like Kevin you mentioned the momentum continued in Q3 in terms of Coors Light Miller Lite.
Consumer level, you should have a little bit of a.
Financial volume kind of recovery as you ship.
Ed of the play.
<unk> recovered inventories so what.
How many square like what are the other headwinds other than the pubs volume coming out in Q4 that you are assuming that we can.
Slow the momentum you're expecting the second half and the other things that we should be aware of thank you.
Tracey Joubert: Yeah, Filippo, let me maybe I'll take that. So the other thing also just to note is the pricing. So, you know, recall the impact of our pricing increases stepped down in the second half of this year as compared to the first half, because of the pricing that we took in 2022. And then, as you mentioned, we expect the pricing for this year to be more in the historical average of around 1% to 2% in the US. You know, we also are a little bit cautious around the consumer, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe.
Tracey Joubert: Yeah, Filippo, let me maybe I'll take that. So the other thing also just to note is the pricing. So, you know, recall the impact of our pricing increases stepped down in the second half of this year as compared to the first half, because of the pricing that we took in 2022. And then, as you mentioned, we expect the pricing for this year to be more in the historical average of around 1% to 2% in the US. You know, we also are a little bit cautious around the consumer, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe.
Stephanie let me maybe I'll take that so the other the other thing also just to note is the pricing.
And recall the impact about costing increases stepped down in the second half of this year compared to the first half because of the pricing that we took in 2022 and then as you mentioned, we expect the pricing for this year to be more in the historical average of around 1% to 2% in the UAE.
We also.
It'll bit cautious around the consumer.
Particularly in central and Eastern Europe .
Tracey Joubert: You know, as Gavin mentioned in his remarks as well, you know, looking at the competitive environment, and then you mentioned the contract brewing volume coming out as well. So I would say those are the big things to consider.
Tracey Joubert: You know, as Gavin mentioned in his remarks as well, you know, looking at the competitive environment, and then you mentioned the contract brewing volume coming out as well. So I would say those are the big things to consider.
Kevin mentioned in his remarks as well.
At the competitive environment.
And and <unk>.
You mentioned the contract brewing volume coming off as well. So I would say those are if those are the big things to consider.
Operator: We have no further questions at this time. So with that, I will hand back to Greg Tierney for final remarks.
Operator: We have no further questions at this time. So with that, I will hand back to Greg Tierney for final remarks.
We have no further questions at this time, so with that I'll hand back to Greg Kenny for final remarks.
Greg Tierney: Okay, thank you, operator, and thanks to everybody for joining us today. I know if you do have additional questions or may have additional questions that we weren't able to answer today, please follow up with our IR team. We look forward to talking with you, many, many of you, as the year progresses, and certainly looking forward to seeing you at our Strategy Day in October. So with that, thank you all for participating in today's call. Have a great day.
Greg Tierney: Okay, thank you, operator, and thanks to everybody for joining us today. I know if you do have additional questions or may have additional questions that we weren't able to answer today, please follow up with our IR team. We look forward to talking with you, many, many of you, as the year progresses, and certainly looking forward to seeing you at our Strategy Day in October. So with that, thank you all for participating in today's call. Have a great day.
Okay. Thank you operator, and thanks to everybody for joining us today.
I know if you do have additional questions or may have additional questions that we weren't able to answer today. Please follow up with our IR team.
We look forward to talking with you. Many many of you as the year progresses.
And certainly looking forward to seeing seeing you at our strategy day in October so with that thank.
Thank you all for participating in today's call.
Have a great day.
Operator: This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.
Operator: This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.
This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation you may now disconnect your lines.
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