Q2 2023 MEG Energy Corp Earnings Call

Good morning. My name is Sylvie and I will be your conference operator today. At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the MEG Energies 2023 Q2 results conference call. Note that all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks there will be a question and answer session.

If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star then number 1 on your telephone keypad. And if you would like to withdraw from the question queue, please press star followed by 2. Thank you. Mr. Derek Evans, CEO , you may begin your conference.

Thank you, Sylvie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to review Mega Energy's 2023 Q2 operating and financial results.

With me on the call this morning are Ryan Kubik, our Chief Financial Officer, Darlene Gates, our Chief Operating Officer, and Lyle Yuzdetsky, our General Counsel and Corporate Secretary.

I'd like to remind our listeners that this call contains forward-looking information.

Please refer to the advisories in our disclosure documents while they're on C-DAR and on our website.

I will keep my remarks brief today and refer listeners to yesterday's press release for more detail.

Our top priority at MEG is our focus on health, safety and the environment that ensures nobody gets hurt, eliminates serious incidents and delivers operational excellence.

I'm extremely proud of the safety, operating and financial performance delivered by our team.

Their focus on plant reliability, steam utilization, and ongoing well optimization have all contributed to a strong operational quarter.

I want to congratulate and thank the MEG team on the execution of a safe and successful second quarter turnaround despite the challenging labour market and ongoing supply chain constraints.

Before I turn the call over to Darlene and Ryan to share details of our results, I'd like to briefly touch on the second quarter highlights.

Pitchman production in the second quarter averaged 86,000 barrels a day, a 28% increase over Q2 2022.

In the quarter, our bitumen realization after net transportation and storage expense of $57.64 was a 33% increase over the first quarter and was primarily driven by an almost US $10 per barrel improvement in the WCS differential since Q1.

These excellent operational results enable our ongoing commitment to debt reduction and share buybacks.

In the first half of 2023, we have repurchased US $126 million or $171 million Canadian of the outstanding 7 and 8 senior unsecured notes.

Share buybacks in the same period totaled $169 million through the repurchase and cancellation of 8 million shares. The recash flow remains allocated at 50% to debt reduction and 50% to share buybacks.

Once the US $600 million debt repayment target is achieved, MEG will return 100% of free cash flow to shareholders. We anticipate achieving the $600 million debt target mid 2024.

I will now ask Darlene Gates, our COO, to speak to the operating results and ask Ryan Kubik, our CFO , to talk to our financial results. Before I open the call to questions, I'll provide an update on the Pathway Alliance's efforts this quarter. Darlene, over to you.

I will now ask Darlene Gates, our COO, to speak to the operating results and ask Ryan Kubik, our CFO , to talk to our financial results. Before I open the call to questions, I will provide an update on the Pathway Alliance's efforts this quarter. Darlene, over to you. Thank you, Derek. And good morning, everyone. The

Our top priority at MEG remains health, safety and environmental performance. This quarter we continue to advance our Operations Excellence and Safety Leadership Development Program.

It is our approach to continuous improvement that enables us to be a leader in responsible and sustainable energy development.

This resulted in a quarterly production impact of approximately 20,000 barrels per day.

Operating expenses net of power revenue that averaged $6.63 per barrel in the second quarter. This is a 48% reduction from the same period last year.

The completion of our second, our schedule turnaround was a key milestone in the quarter. It was the largest in our history in terms of work hours, at just over 220,000 hours, and was completed on schedule with zero recordable injuries and zero recordable skills. The completion of our second, our schedule turnaround was a key milestone in the quarter.

Increased turnaround costs in the second quarter reflect a larger plan turnaround scope, sound work, inflationary pressures on labor costs, and supply chain challenges.

I want to take this opportunity to thank our maintenance, operations and contractor crews for their commitment to delivering and executing a safe turnaround.

Moving forward, we are focused on optimizing second half production, which is forecasted to be approximately 105,000 barrels per day.

Third quarter volumes will be impacted by planned facility and infrastructure and field infrastructure projects required to distribute high pressure steam to the future well paths.

This will be partially offset by the startup of infill and redevelopment wells drilled earlier this year.

Steam injection to our newest pad in the third quarter will also commence and ramp up to its full production by year end. We expect a strong finish to the year again with an exit rate of 110,000 barrels a day. With that I'll turn it over to Ryan to provide the Q2 financial results.

Thanks Darlene.

MEG's cash operating net back in the second quarter of this year was $42 per barrel, generating $278 million of adjusted funds flow in the quarter, or 96 cents per share.

As Darlene mentioned, our production averaged 86,000 barrels per day during the quarter and was significantly improved differential since the start of the year. Our Q2 bitumen realization after net transportation and storage expense was $57.64 per barrel. Non-energy operating costs averaged $5.66.

reflecting low 2023 natural gas prices.

In addition, we continue to enjoy strong power revenue from our cogeneration facilities, which offsets 75% of energy operating costs in the current quarter.

Our Christina Lake project reached post-payout royalty status this quarter, resulting in an increase in the effective royalty rate to 13% of bitumen realization after net transportation and storage expense.

After funding $149 million of capital expenditures, about 45% of which was related to the turnaround.

Make generated $129 million of free cash flow.

That free cash flow was used to buy 3.1 million mag shares for $66 million and repay US $40 million of senior notes in Q2.

We ended the quarter with just under $1 billion US of net debt.

and still forecast reaching our US $600 million net debt target around mid next year at current oil prices.

With production forecast average about 105,000 barrels per day in the second half of this year, we've maintained our 100 to 105,000 barrel per day annual guidance range.

But we'll trend to the low end of that range.

Per barrel operating costs and G&A guidance is also unchanged, but we'll trend to the top end of those ranges under the current production forecast.

With rising second half production and continued strong oil prices, MEG is now positioned to generate even more free cash flow in the second half of this year for share buybacks and debt reduction.

Thanks, and with that I'm going to hand it back to Derek.

Thanks Ryan. Before we move on to questions, I'd like to share an update on the Pathways Alliance.

MEG, along with its Pathway Alliance peers, is progressing pre-work on the proposed foundational carbon capture and storage project, which will transport CO2 by a pipeline from multiple oil sense facilities to be stored safely and permanently in the Cold Lake Region of Alberta.

During the second quarter of 2023, the Alliance continued to evaluate its proposed storage hub and is working to obtain a carbon sequestration agreement from the Government of Alberta by year end 2023. In addition, the Alliance continued to advance engineering and fieldwork related to the proposed CCS project.

in order to support a regulatory application anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2023 for the CCS network.

Formal consultation with about 25 Indigenous groups along the proposed CO2 Transportation and Storage Network corridor has commenced and follows early engagement with these groups over the last two years.

The Alliance continues to work collaboratively with both the federal and Alberta governments on the necessary policy and co-financing frameworks required to move the project forward.

The government of Alberta recently recognized that a coordinated approach with the federal government and industry is needed to compete with the United States, Europe and others for investment in wide-scale carbon capture and storage deployment, which is essential to achieve emissions reductions goals.

The Alberta and Federal governments are in discussions relating to the formation of a bilateral working group to incentivize carbon capture and storage and other emissions reduction technologies.

As I bring my remarks to a close, I once again want to extend my thanks to our team for their commitment and perseverance. I'm proud of what we've been able to accomplish and confident in our future and our commitment to sustainable, innovative and responsible energy development.

On behalf of MEG's Board of Directors and our management team, I want to thank you for your continued support.

With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Sylvie to begin the Q&A.

Thank you sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, as mentioned, please press star followed by 1 on your touchtone phone. You will hear a 3 tone prompt acknowledging your request. And should you wish to withdraw from the question queue, please press star 2. And if you are using a speakerphone, you will need to lift the handset before pressing any keys.

Please go ahead and press star 1 now if you have a question. And your first question will be from Menu Harshal at TD Securities. Please go ahead.

Thanks and good morning everyone. So you touched on this in your opening remarks but can you elaborate on what drove the decision to adjust the outlook to the low end of the production guidance range and I guess more specifically what's changed in the plan relative to the beginning of the year and then finally and I think the answer to the last part is no but is there any sort of a knock on

If you look at when we were in the turnaround, our hope was to bring that into the turnaround scope so it didn't impact production in Q3, Q4. And we were not able to do that, you know, based on some of the supply chain challenges that we were experiencing. That's really the key difference when I look at what's different from the second half to what we were hoping to achieve versus what is in the plan now.

Okay, thank you. And so if you look to similarly on GNA and OpEx at the higher end of the range, I'm assuming a lot of that is volumetric, but it sounds like there's a bit of an inflationary component in there as well.

We're managing the inflation and pressure but for sure it's really more the production impact that you're seeing that's driving that metric.

Okay, thanks Darlene. And then finally, could we just get a refresh on your expectations for the trajectory for sustaining capital on a dollar per barrel basis and maybe the base decline in the SOR over the next couple of years as well?

So, I mean I will take that, I mean I think you should expect our sustaining capital will be somewhere in that 400 to 425 million dollars on a go forward basis, absent any adjustment for inflation that may be required.

And I think as we think about some of the pressures we've seen on G&A and operating costs, the single biggest inflationary pressure is coming from the people costs of all those business which we have seen a sustained and unrelenting pressure in that regard.

And then the base decline in the SOR.

Sorry, yeah, base decline is relatively stable in that probably closer to 15% range and the SOR continues on its downward trajectory. I think Darlene talked about the fact that we're looking to...

Thank you. Next question will be from Greg Party at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Hey, yeah, thanks. Good morning. Thanks for the rundown. If I guess it's probably a question directed towards one on the ops side, but if we

Fast forward to year-end when you're at 110,000 barrels a day. When you look at how much field capacity you have, how much horsepower there is to actually produce bitumen in the field and then compare that with what the processing facility can take right now.

is 110,000 barrels a day, what does that balance look like? And then what is the plan or is there a plan to de-bottle neck the facility and what would that involve?

I'll take that one Greg, it's Derek. I think this year we have figured out and really hit the top end of the facility capacity which is really in that 110 to a little over 110,000 barrels a day.

So fundamentally, we can achieve that when we're bringing on new wells, new pads, which is what we're planning on doing as we move through the second half of the year at low steam oil ratios. But, you know, as we've talked about in the past, we're going to have to add a third processing train…

to the facility and we've talked about not doing that until we hit our 600 million debt target. But once we got there, it's somewhere in the neighborhood of 250 to 300 million dollars to move that facility productive capacity from 110 to 200 million dollars.

to about 125,000 BOEs a day and will take somewhere in the neighborhood of three years to do that.

So I've talked pretty well exclusively about the...

the facility. Obviously, as we're investing to put that third processing train in place, we would also, incumbent in that 250 to 300, is the new well patch that we would be drilling to fill that production and grow that production to that level as well.

Okay, thanks for that and then I'll maybe just completely shift gears on you a little bit but just curious what you're seeing in the Gulf Coast right now as it relates to AWS and WCSV to the WTI. Are you, you know, are you sending cargos to China, India right now? Like what's the international appetite and then I think just more broadly.

what happens, what's your view I guess on spreads with TMX next year?

What's your view on spreads with TMX next year?

A bunch of questions in that question. So let me start with where we see the differential today. That WCS differential appears to be in that 1550 in Edmonton, quite a move from the $10 that we saw earlier.

Part of the rationale or the reason for that is that...

there was a lot of

production off, offline in that July-August period and BP Whiting probably, they moved their turnaround up from September into August and we think that really impacted the amount of crude that there was a, I would call a semi-distressed situation in terms of...

having a lot more heavy oil on the market, which really pushed that differential down. And I think is a very good indication of what's going to happen in PAD 2 to those differentials we bring TMX on.

A good color there as we think about what TMX may do in terms of bringing differentials down. I think as we look to that differential going forward for the remainder of the year, I think we are pretty comfortable that it has widened out as much as it is going to and already has some...

just obliged me if you wouldn't mind but just worse WCS and AWS kind of trading in the Gulf right now.

It's about 5th in the Gulf. AWB is trading in a 545, 560 range yesterday.

So WCA would be probably about a buck and a half lower than that. Okay, thanks very much. Thank you. And your next question will be from Neil Mehta at Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning. This is Nicolette Susser, I'm for Neill Data. Thanks for taking the time. So a couple of questions here just on the cost side of things. I think two key topics is just a little bit higher than maybe what some were initially anticipating and probably just a function of turnaround and maintenance in the corridor, but I know full year. A lot of people have said that you can do a lot of analysis, sort of little Something address some of those a little high also.

is unchanged at that $450 million. Can you just comment if there's anything else we should have been looking out for in the 2Q CapEx and then if it is just maintenance, the 3Q, 4Q, any type of color you can share there?

Absolutely driven by the timing of the turnaround so you got that absolutely correct. And then as we look ahead, no new signposts where we built the capital profile at $4.50 with the room for the inflation and some of those surprises.

and we're managing through that. So no upward vector on our capital profile.

Thank you. Great, thank you. And then the quick follow-up here is just on the OpEx side of things, and I'm not sure if there's ever been kind of a longer-term, you know, OpEx per barrel target you guys have put out there, but is there any sort of, you know, drivers we should be looking towards as you approach that 110,000 barrel per day exit rate towards the end of the year? No, we've maintained, again, the team is on an out...

Ladies and gentlemen, if you do have a question, please press star followed by 1 on your touchtone phone.

And your next question will be from John Royall at JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Absolutely, let me take that question. Yes, the net debt floor is 600 million US. We have no plans to go lower than $600 million US and once we hit that 600 million US target, which we anticipate will be mid next year, we are going to go to 100% return of free cash flow to shareholders.

Okay, thank you. That's very clear. And any updated thoughts on mainline apportionment from here? We think mainline apportionment is going to be de minimis in terms of actual published numbers and in terms of economic impact.

the barrels again de minimus.

again, de minimis. Great, thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. And at this time, Mr. Evans, it appears we have no further questions. Please proceed.

Thank you Sylvie and thank you to everybody that joined us this morning for our Q2 results conference call. We are excited about what we were able to achieve this quarter and look forward to updating you on our operational performance and return of capital program when we release our Q3 results in November .

Enjoy the remainder of your summers. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude the conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending. And at this time, we do ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a good weekend. Thank you, Sylvie. My pleasure, sir. Thank you.