Q3 2023 Moog Inc Earnings Call
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[music].
Good morning, and welcome to the third quarter.
Fiscal year 2023 conference call. Today's conference is being recorded at this time I would like to turn the conference over to Aaron Astro can please go ahead Sir.
Good morning, and thank you for joining <unk> third quarter of 2023 earnings release Conference call I'm, Aaron Astrakhan director of Investor Relations.
With me today is Pat Roche, Chief Executive Officer, and Jennifer Walter Our Chief Financial Officer.
Earlier. This morning, we released our results and our supplemental financial schedules, both of which are available on our website.
Our earnings press release or supplemental financial schedules and remarks made during our call today contains adjusted non-GAAP results.
Conciliations for these adjusted results to GAAP results are contained within the provide the materials.
Lastly, our comments today may include statements related to expected future results and other forward looking statements.
These are not guarantees as our actual results may differ materially from those described in our forward looking statements and are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earnings press release and in our other SEC filings.
Now.
I'm pleased to turn the call over to Pat.
Good morning, and welcome.
Today, we will share our update on the quarter notable for record sales strong underlying operating performance improvement masked by a space vehicle charge and cash demands above expectation.
We are also increasing our full year earnings per share guidance, while reflecting the stronger demand on cash.
It's almost two months since our Investor Day Conference in New York City.
Our team was delighted to have the opportunity to make public our business plans for the first time, we were explicit on our goals for the business, namely revenue CAGR of 5% to 7% from fit to fiscal 'twenty six from our 'twenty two baseline.
Average annual adjusted operating margin expansion of 100 basis points to fiscal 2006 <unk>.
Adjusted earnings per share CAGR of 15% to 20% to 26 and free cash flow returning to the 75% to 100% conversion by 'twenty five 'twenty six.
We took the time in New York City to explain how we're going to deliver on these significant improvements in performance.
And talked in detail about our simplification of pricing activities to deliver margin enhancement.
During today's call I will give several specific examples of such activity within the quarter.
Two months ago, two months on I remain confident that we have a great business that is growing and becoming more profitable over the next few years.
Let me start right away with an update on our operational performance covering each of my three themes.
Starting with customer focus we.
We delivered record sales, while managing the ongoing challenges of supply chain and labor availability.
These challenges have an impact on inventory holding product flow and overall efficiency.
Our enhanced maintenance repair and overhaul service was recognized by both Boeing and Airbus.
Achieving a top two ranking with Boeing.
We continue to simplify how we're organized we have made internal reporting structure changes within our $330 million space business that empower business leaders to better meet operational needs of our customers and to achieve financial performance.
Secondly people community and planet are <unk> site, which is core to our commercial aircraft operations was recognized by the employers' Confederation of the Philippines for our commitment to operational excellence sustainability employee relations and ethical behavior.
We are thankful that our people are safe following this week's super typhoon.
And finally, let me return to financial strength.
We are relentlessly driving simplification and pricing across our business, let me share some examples.
Within industrial systems, we continue to refine our portfolio with the launch of a sales process for our business in Luxembourg for context. This is a $15 million revenue operation with 70 staff manufacturing cartridge valves manifolds.
We are refining our footprint with several moves for example, we've changed from a direct channel to market in South Africa to a distributor model exiting our leased facility.
In aircraft controls, we have announced the closure of the Cincinnati based operation of short like and its transfer to our Genesis Aerospace facility in Texas.
While each change yields relatively small impact today. It is the accumulation of these changes over the next couple of years that delivers footprint benefit.
We are seeing <unk> 20 gain further traction within our business.
We have the data analytics unprofitability complete for over two thirds of our revenue base across the entire organization.
We have trained well over 100 leaders on the 80 20 approach and we are growing capability as pilot sites mature the process and expand scope from profitability analysis to include reduction of cash conversion cycle.
Ultimately 80, 20 is accelerating decisions that increase our profitability.
For example, we have identified several product lines that we feel are at end of life and we're even working with customers to closeout production are finalizing agreements with other companies, who will continue to support the products.
Now, let me turn my attention to pricing.
We are driving pricing activity across all markets that we serve.
We have a systematic approach pursuing high impact opportunities early and using 800000 to focus further margin enhancement.
Our philosophy is to ensure the pricing reflects the value that we deliver.
Aircraft controls has made very significant margin improvement through pricing that are now reflected in our full year forecast.
In addition, industrial systems has delivered substantial operating margin enhancement in this quarter with prices being the pricing being the most important contributor.
Across all businesses pricing is driving margin enhancement.
Now, let me turn to the macro economy.
Department of defense budget for fiscal 'twenty four is still on its way through the house and Senate. The requested increase of three 2% is looking to protect new platforms significantly. This includes maintaining the future vertical lift funding stream moving next generation air dominance aircrafts and collaborative combat aircraft too.
Programs of record in 2024 and.
An increasing to $30 billion to funding for the space Force.
Unfortunately, the war in Ukraine is now stretch beyond 500 days.
Politically the obstacles to Sweden succession to NATO have been overcome and ratification by Turkish and Hungarian Parliament as anticipated.
The significant demands of army, Ukraine is driving missile replenishment orders and increased equipment MRO activity occur.
According to Lockheed Martin the fleet of F 35 fighters operating in Europe is expected to increased four fold by 2000 22030.
U S. China tensions continue with the trade dispute over semiconductors, now extending to cloud computing and precious minerals.
It appears that important diplomatic efforts continue with Anthony Blinken, Janet Yellen, Henry Kissinger, and John Kerry all visiting China in recent weeks.
Whilst the slowdown in Chinese economic activity is a minor concern escalating trade embargoes would be a greater concern and potentially more disruptive.
Our philosophy remains to be in China for China.
The recovery of commercial aircraft continues consequently, we are seeing real strength in aftermarket.
And consistent with Investor day, Boeing and Airbus continue to project doubling of rates and wide body production by fiscal 'twenty six.
Industrial automation remains a watch item for June purchaser of managers index for manufacturing chose contraction in the U S and for 12 straight months and the eurozone.
Our order intake for industrial automation is down about 4% in the last six months relative to the prior six months.
However, we have a healthy backlog carrying us into fiscal 2024.
Now turning to what was notable in the quarter, we returned to the Paris Air show after four years absence.
A remarkable show in which the sentiment was extremely positive.
Both commercial aerospace and defense markets are anticipating continued strong growth in.
In fact record breaking gross orders for 1000 aircraft replaced with Oems in the month of June .
There was quite a notable presence of EV tells that the show and we are pleased to supply hardware. So far on two of these aircraft.
In May the C 909 entered revenue service with China Eastern.
This is a significant step for coal Mac.
We are planning a handful of shipments in calendar year, 'twenty, three and a gradual increase through calendar year 'twenty four.
As noted at Investor Day, the engineering and manufacturing development Phase of <unk> hundred 80 started in June we are making good progress in ramping our engineering team.
It was notable that Collins aerospace was sold by RPX to Safran given no new commercial platform development over the next decade, the sale does not in our opinion changed the competitive landscape for flight control systems.
Now turning attention to our financial performance.
Our second consecutive quarter of record sales was a great achievement for our entire staff.
We are starting to see the benefits of simplification and pricing feeding through in our operational performance.
We delivered sales of $850 million up over 10% on prior year with every segment posting double digit organic growth.
We're seeing the recovery of commercial aircraft.
Reconfigurable integrated weapons platform at full rate and high levels of activity in space components industrial automation and simulation.
Our bookings remained strong overall with 12 month backlog at $2 3 billion up 2% over prior year.
We do see some softening within industrial automation as noted earlier.
Our adjusted operating margin was down 30 basis points on prior year excluding.
Excluding space vehicle charges, our margin performance would have been up 120 basis points. This margin enhancement is due to pricing and business growth.
Our cash flow is clearly pressured in this quarter with a $19 million use of cash arising from growth of physical inventory.
Before I hand over to Jennifer I'd like to explain that my view of the two key issues impacting performance in this quarter and for the full year, namely space vehicle charges on cash flow.
Firstly, we incurred $14 million charge on our space vehicle fixed price contracts.
You may ask since we were 90% complete on our last call our further charge could arise.
The charge is driven by two factors, namely additional software development effort required to resolve all remaining open issues necessary to achieve flight ready software.
And additional integration and test the effort required to rework issues arising in integration of the last couple of flight units.
These are complex systems in which the final stages of integration can flush out unanticipated challenges.
Despite incurring year to date charges of $25 million in space vehicles, I remain very confident in that business. These.
These charges represent additional investment in gaining a much deeper understanding of satellite bus system integration and building our capability to deliver.
Our achievements to date include the development of two spacecraft both platforms, namely meteorite in <unk>, which were 120, <unk> 650 <unk> respectively.
These buses share many common components in particular, the avionics unit and the software base.
We have now fully built and tested six payload ready meteorite class satellites, and we have shipped all flight hardware required under two contracts as of last week.
We will deliver the final software release within the next two weeks.
From my perspective, we have a great offering with two satellite both platforms that can carry a variety of customer payloads.
We are operating in a rapidly expanding market and see plenty of new opportunities ahead.
Our execution risk is reduced due to our improved capability and the commonality of hardware and software across both the meteorite and <unk> platforms.
Now turning my attention to our cash situation, we adjusted our free cash flow guidance from zero to minus $60 million for FY2023 let.
Let me describe what has changed.
First our sales have come in much stronger than anticipated.
We also believe 90 days ago that there would be less growth in physical inventory during the second half of the year. We now recognize that it will take longer for our actions to slow the growth of inventory as we work to strike the right balance between slowing material inflow and meeting growing customer requirements.
Our efforts have begun to reduce the underlying rate of increase of physical inventory and we expect this improvement to continue.
Given our leverage the demand on cash is manageable with free cash flow turning strongly positive in Q4, reversing a three quarter use of cash.
We are actively managing the situation first we are working to reduce material inflow, while dealing with material constraints and ensuring a healthy supply chain.
We are unlocking production challenges to improve throughput and material flow, while dealing with material availability and labor constraints.
We reflected during investor day that cash flow would take until fiscal 'twenty five 'twenty six before it would normalize.
We are confident that this is getting the necessary attention and oversight throughout the organization.
We have executed and will continue to drive many tactical changes that are slowing inventory.
We are now focused on longer term actions to drive improvement by fiscal 'twenty five 'twenty six.
On these two key issues I believe we are making progress with significantly reduced risk in our space vehicle contracts and.
And we've made initial progress on physical inventory and will drive progressive improvement over the coming quarters.
Overall I remain very optimistic for our business, we have a strong growth, which I see as a sign that we are creating value for our customers. In addition, we have made excellent progress on our journey to improve margins through simplification and pricing.
Now I'll hand over to Jennifer to review our financials in more detail.
Thanks, Pat I'll begin with a review of our third quarter financial performance.
And provide an update on our guidance for our fiscal year 'twenty three.
There was another exceptional quarter from a sales perspective for the second quarter in a row, we hit a record level of sales for the company.
Our adjusted operating margin was 10, 2%, including $14 million of charges on space vehicle program.
Our underlying operational performance was strong this quarter, we achieved $1 37 of adjusted earnings per share, which was negatively impacted by 33 cents from the space vehicle charges and was positively impacted by 13 from tax adjustments associated with higher R&D tax.
Credit.
This suggests performance near the high end of our guidance when carving out these two factors.
Sales in the third quarter were $850 million.
Total company sales increased 10% over the same quarter a year ago.
Excluding the impact of divestitures sales were up 11%.
The largest increase in segment sales wasn't aircraft control.
Sales of $355 million increased 12% over the same quarter a year ago.
Commercial OE sales in the quarter were especially strong driven by the continued market recovery and Wi Fi platform as well as growth in business jet.
Commercial aftermarket sales were at a record high with strong sales on the <unk> hundred 50 program, which has been steadily ramping over the past several quarters.
Military aircraft sales declined in the third quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. The military sales decrease reflects lower funded development activity, including the delayed start on the fire program.
In addition, military aftermarket sales were down slightly from the same quarter a year ago.
Sales in space and defense control of $242 million increased 8% over the third quarter last year.
Adjusting for the divestiture of our security business last year sales increased 11%.
The ramp up in production on our Reconfigurable turret program, which hit full rate production levels in the first quarter of this year.
Sales this quarter.
The sales growth was also driven by increased activity on avionics and components for satellites.
Industrial systems sales increased 9% to $253 million.
Excluding the divestiture of our sonar business last year sales were up 11%.
Within industrial systems, our industrial automation sales growth was driven by demand for capital equipment.
This business has recovered nicely since the pandemic that we're now seeing order slowdown in line with global capital spend.
Our growing construction business is also contributing to the industrial automation sales strength.
Simulation and test sales were also strong driven by high demand on flight simulation system.
Sales in energy adjusting for the divestiture last year were up nicely compared to a year ago.
These sales increases were partially offset by lower sales in medical which is impacted by supply chain issues.
I will now shift to operating margin.
Adjusted.
Operating margin of 10, 2% in the third quarter decreased 30 basis points from the third quarter last year.
The space vehicle charges pressured our total operating margin by 150 basis points.
These pressures were mostly offset by strong operational performance on our underlying business and a marginal return on the sales increase.
Adjustments to operating profit this quarter in the same quarter, a year ago were $2 million and $1 million respectively.
These adjustments reflect restructuring and other charges.
I'll now describe the key drivers of our adjusted operating margins for each of our segments.
Operating margin in aircraft controls was 10, 9% in the third quarter compared to 11 <unk> percent in the same quarter a year ago.
Operating margin in space and defense controls was seven 8% down 360 basis points from 11, 4% a year ago.
Pat described we incurred significant charges on space vehicle programs again, this quarter over 500 basis points for masking the benefit associated with higher sales and improvements in the core business.
Operating margin in industrial systems was 11, 5% up nicely over the eight 7% of last year's third quarter.
Benefits associated with our pricing initiatives accounted for three quarters of this improvement.
In addition, last year's margin was pressured by supply chain disruption and the pandemic impacting our operations in China.
Interest expense is another area, that's impacting our financial results in the third quarter interest expense was $17 million up $8 million over the third quarter last year.
The increase in interest expense relates to higher interest rates and to a lesser extent higher levels of debt.
Our adjusted effective tax rate in the third quarter was 16 <unk> percent about the same as in the third quarter last year.
We're benefiting from higher levels of R&D tax credits and have captured these benefits and a return to provision third quarter adjustments in both years.
Putting it altogether adjusted earnings per share came in at $1 37 within the range, we provided a quarter ago.
<unk> is down 15% from the same quarter, a year ago due to higher interest expense and corporate expense, partially offset by increased operating profit.
Let's shift over to cash flow.
In the third quarter, we had negative free cash flow of $19 million.
Net earnings were solid and capital expenditures were on plan, however, networking capital in particular physical inventories grew substantially.
Growth in physical inventories of Unbilled receivables for long term contracts and inventories as shown on the balance sheet resulted from continuing to receive and materials at a faster rate than shipping product to customers.
We've maintained material flow to ensure we're positioned well for customer deliveries.
However, a combination of staffing shortages supply chain challenges and production inefficiencies have limited our ability to convert inventory to cash.
In addition, this quarter, we took ownership of some inventory from a vendor to prevent a supply chain disruption.
Capital expenditures were $35 million.
Thats pretty much in line with our average spending last year and just over the average quarterly spend this year, excluding the facility we purchased last quarter.
We're investing in facilities to accommodate our growth focus our factories and enhance our capabilities through automation.
Our leverage ratio calculated on a net debt basis as of the end of the third quarter was two seven times within our target range of two in a quarter to two and three quarter time.
Our capital deployment priorities, both long term and near term are unchanged. Our current priority continues to be investing for organic growth.
I will now shift over to guidance for the full year.
Compared to a quarter ago were increasing sale adjusted operating profit and adjusted earnings per share and modifying operating margin down slightly.
Based on continuing pressures on cash we are decreasing our free cash flow guidance for the year.
Let's take a more detailed look at our guidance.
We're projecting sales of $3 3 billion in fiscal year, 'twenty, three which is up $60 million over our previous guidance.
That's a 7% sales increase compared to FY 'twenty, two and 9% when we adjust for divestitures over the past year and the impact of foreign currency movements.
We expect high single digit organic sales growth in each of our segments.
Aircraft control sales are projected to increase 8% to $1 4 billion.
The increase is all on the commercial side of the business.
Commercial OE will be up across the board with growth on Airbus and Boeing platform business, Jeff and the Genesis business, we acquired a couple of years ago.
We will also see growth in an already strong commercial aftermarket business.
To account for the strong sales this quarter were increasing our commercial OE forecast by $35 million and our aftermarket sales forecast by $20 million.
We expect a decline in military aircraft sales driven by lower funded development and aftermarket sales were.
We're decreasing our military aircraft sales guidance by $30 million to reflect the results, we're seeing especially related to funded development activities.
Space and defense control sales are projected to increase 7% to $930 million.
Adjusting for the divestiture of our security business late last fiscal year sales will be up 9%.
When looking at our numbers within this segment you may recall that we shifted our product line from defense anticipate at the beginning of our first quarter. We've now adjusted last year's numbers for that shift in our supplemental materials.
Space sales will increase for satellite components and space vehicles, and defense sales will increase our production ramps for the Reconfigurable turret and tactical missile program.
Our sales forecast is up $10 million over our previous forecast, reflecting the strong sales levels, we're achieving in both space and defense.
Industrial systems sales are projected to increase 6% to $965 million.
<unk> for the sale of the sell in our business and foreign currency movements the increase of 10%.
Most of the growth will come from industrial automation and stimulation test both of which were particularly strong this quarter.
Our sales forecast is up $25 million from our previous forecast and record sales this quarter.
Let's shift over to operating margins.
We've updated our segment operating profit and margin guidance to reflect retroactive pricing benefits, we'll get in the fourth quarter on aircraft programs.
The higher level of sales, we're now projecting and the charges we incurred this quarter on space vehicle programs.
We're now projecting an adjusted operating margin of 10, 9% in fiscal year, 'twenty, three which is up from 10, 2% in fiscal year 'twenty two.
Industrial systems will increase 190 basis points to 11, 4% largely due to progress on pricing initiatives.
Aircraft controls will increased 70 basis points to 10, 8% also reflecting the benefit we'll see from pricing initiatives.
Factory utilization will improve as sales in the commercial OE business increased however, this benefit will be largely offset by an unfavorable mix with the relative increase in commercial OE.
Operating margin in space and defense control will decrease 40 basis points to 10, 5%, reflecting $25 million of charges incurred on space vehicle programs. This year offset by incremental return on higher sales.
Higher interest expense will depress adjusted earnings per share by 62 relative to fiscal year 'twenty two.
First fiscal year 'twenty three we're now projecting adjusted earnings per share of $5 75.
Plus or minus 10.
Which is up three.
3% over fiscal year 2002.
Adjusting for interest EPS would be <unk> 37, an increase of 15% reflecting strong operational performance.
Next quarter, we are forecasting earnings per share to be $1, 71, plus or minus 10%.
Finally, turning to cash we're projecting free cash flow for fiscal year, 'twenty three to be negative $60 million.
Down from zero that we were projecting 90 days ago with.
The change largely reflects our third quarter growth in physical inventories.
As we move into the fourth quarter, we expect working capital to be a source of cash the first time in several quarters.
Receivables will be the largest generator of cash within working capital.
Accruals for compensation will normalize from a timing perspective in the fourth quarter also contributing to free cash flow generation.
Those sources of cash will be partially offset by continued growth in physical inventories. So we're beginning to see the growth in physical inventories trend downward.
Outside of working capital, we're projecting a strong earnings quarter, and we are maintaining our forecast of <unk> of $165 million and capital expenditures for the year.
Overall, we had a solid third quarter and our outlook for the fourth quarter looks strong we're positioned well from a liquidity and leverage standpoint, enabling us to invest for future growth in our business.
And now I'll turn it over to Pat.
Thank you Jennifer as you've heard we closed out a solid quarter delivering record sales and we're on a path to deliver a fiscal year with 9% organic sales growth and 70 basis points margin improvement.
We are now happy to take your questions.
If you would like to ask a question. Please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad, if you're using a speaker phone. Please make sure. Your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment again. Please.
Please press Star one and our first question is going to come from Christina Wang from Morgan Stanley . Please go ahead.
Great Hey, guys. Thanks for putting me in queue.
First on pricing you guys mentioned aircraft controls youre getting the pricing increases rolling through can you quantify that and are you seeing that and specific aircraft programs are all programs and how much of a pricing increases.
Hi, Kristine good morning, how are you.
Great Great Happy Friday.
Thank you. So I think we've made really strong progress during the course of this year in.
And pricing conversations with our customers it's across all of our customers on the commercial aircraft side of the business and in the other businesses as I've emphasized in the Investor day.
In those conversations we also said at Investor day that some of them have been going on for a very extended period of time, and we reached agreement with with our customers.
The negotiation would be retrospective through the first of January and so now that we've concluded those conversations with our customer we were able to in the fourth quarter reflect an increased operating margin in our aircraft group as those prices flow through the gain our step up in performance of the aircraft group in Q4 is including.
That retrospective pricing elements and so it'll be in our business going forward, but not at the same high level of operating margin is Q4 will show for aircraft group.
So I would say in answer to your question Christine will you don't want to be specific about which customer it is and it is across multiple customers within our aircraft group business.
And.
I don't think we want to share the increment of the of the increase at this point, although in Q4, we will do a retrospective that shows how much gain has come through pricing in our business and how much has come through simplification.
Jennifer do you have anything you'd like to add.
No I think Thats fair Pat I think we've made a lot of progress as Pat said, we've got a retro coming up in the fourth quarter. So when we look at it for the full year pricing is a substantial contributor to the margin enhancement for all of fiscal year 'twenty three compared to all of fiscal year 2000 to occur.
Ross our aircraft business.
Okay.
Great. It's great to see you guys make progress there and.
So when we think about this pricing reset is this a one time reset on all of the on the programs that you have or is this something that we should expect to occur on an annual basis.
I would describe it as a progressive program Chris.
Christine we have still more work to do on pricing with other customers. So it's ongoing and in addition, the pricing that we have negotiated with our customers to date has included provision.
Provision in the contracts for escalation year over year, and so we have a framework on a mechanism for further increases over time, depending on certain indices that we're tracking.
Great. Thanks, and if I could squeeze one last one on free cash flow.
We've seen fairly dramatic cuts in free cash flow outlook now for two consecutive quarters I mean.
Wood.
Is this what makes you confident that you know negative $60 million for the year and.
Is that a conservative enough number if.
Revenue, maybe picks up even more than you thought and then also at some point, we will see an inventory unwind at what pace do you think that unwind that will be for 2024 could we see all of that come back and you get your normal course of positive free cash flow plus the inventory unwind.
Yes.
I'll start and then I'll hand over to Jennifer as well for some comments on this.
I think the difference.
Where we sit today is that we know it's taking longer to slow the rate of growth. We we took a lot of actions in the last 90 days, which have had an impact and have slown slowed down the growth of inventory.
It's striking that right balance between the inflow of materials and sufficient material on hand to meet our customers' requirements. So.
That's a little bit longer.
Going and taking more time than we anticipated it will to your point it will unwind Christine the inventory that we have is is nonperishable and it will get used in our programs that unwind will.
We will begin to come through in future quarters, what you've got to bear in mind that our especially our commercial aircraft programs are ramping we are currently running at <unk> five.
On our Boeing production, so thats up from the rate four we were previously running and we are getting we are ahead because of our lead times of goings on rates. So.
The unwind is balanced in some way by a pickup in inventory required for those higher rates in the future. So that will play out during the course of fiscal 'twenty four our cash used in 'twenty four.
Is.
As the demand for next year, our free cash conversion will be I don't know if we give the figure in investor day, it will be lower than it will be in 'twenty five 'twenty six but we get back to the normalized levels. In 2526. So there are demands through the course of next year. So you'll see it is multiple quarters as we go through this.
Transitioning now.
Jennifer do you have anything to add to that yes, maybe just to complement that so for our forecast this year for a $60 million use of cash.
To your point.
I'd say its balanced two year claim if we have higher sales, we may be pressured from the receivable standpoint associated with that.
But I would say overall, it's balanced.
Area, we give confidence to it when we're looking at how the fourth quarter is going to shape up as we do have we.
We have some customer advances that were build late in Q3 and just on the normal terms associated with that we will get the collection of that advance in Q4.
With our high level of sales in Q3, we will also collect on those sales as well so there's definitely some things, especially on the receivable side that will help us as we move into the fourth quarter.
We're also seeing a slowdown in the need for growth in physical inventories. So it's still growing but over the past few quarters. It's been decreasing so in the first quarter. It was about $71 million in the second quarter. It was 67, although in the third quarter was $65 million that included about <unk> <unk>.
$10 million of the payment we made to prevent a supply chain disruption by taking some inventory from a vendor and we're projecting that to improve to $40 million in.
Q4, so we are seeing.
Slowdown in the growth of physical inventories, but we're not yet projecting that to turn.
As we look into next year, we're expecting a modest level of free cash flow generation, which is consistent with what we said a month or two ago as well.
So definitely physical inventories is an area that will take us a while too.
To work here.
Great. Thank you for the color guys.
Yes, we welcome.
And our next question is going to come from Michael <unk> from <unk> Securities. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions.
Just.
Jennifer I guess to to stay on that.
Inventory and cash side of things can you kind of specify.
What end markets from a material standpoint, I guess that you are trying to reduce.
Is it is it more aerospace related or industrial and then any color on where you are with 77 inventories I know you guys have been building ahead Darrin it sounds like Boeing.
Pushing for five a month by year end and kind of how that.
That fits into.
The equation.
Yes.
From a market perspective, we are seeing the supply chain pressures and many of our markets. Each of our markets are reacting a little bit different but we're still seeing supply chain constraints in many areas for electronics some areas have eased up a little bit, but there's also some store gains in other areas that.
Continue to pop up as well on that I would say in our industrial businesses.
Easing up from a standpoint of our matching of incoming material to what is being able to be processed. However, there is different things that are happening in the aerospace business.
They still seem like theyre changing associated with it. So for instance, we're.
Still keeping our incoming receipts for the most part fairly level from our supply chain, we want to make sure that we've got everything that we need so that we can meet customer requirements and also to make sure that we've got a healthy supply chain now obviously, we want to balance that so that we're not carrying excess amount of safety stock.
So we're being very careful but it's a very tedious process to go through and make these decisions and then <unk>.
Put them into our system and then wait for it to actually manifest through our numbers.
But in some of the A&D sides of the business and it's in different parts of it. Some places we've got we're short on staff a little bit so when we've got the materials and it still takes a while.
<unk>.
Push those products through based on our staffing.
Some of the supply chain challenges are happening as well and its this throughput through our factories of making that all happen, though if we get a huge slug of inventories and even from our supply chain. The time that it still takes to processes through on it.
It doesn't necessarily mean that we'll catch up right away. So there is <unk>.
<unk> level challenges that we're facing.
Even though that we are getting materials in the door.
As it relates to <unk> 78.
As it relates to 787 inventories currently it's not having a significant amount of impact on our free cash flow.
However, we are carrying inventory that we had built up in previous periods, especially in fiscal year 'twenty two that's going to help us as we start going into this ramp and where FX five.
Five a month rate right now on that so right now it's stable not causing any further pressure.
And we do have stock in hand, so that we can manage as we move forward.
Got it and then what about you called out.
Think earlier, the Unbilled receivables, what's sort of the line of sight in terms of.
Driving driving that down.
Is it more milestone based or they presumably you are more on the on the space and defense side and should we expect that to be.
More of a tailwind out in 'twenty five 'twenty six or do you think you can start unwinding some of that.
In the shorter term.
Yes, so the unbilled receivables or there is a number of things are happening first of all with our level of activity. We've got continuing growth with our sales growth a lot of our business on the A&D side is on long term contracting so it does happen to go through.
The unbilled receivables as we have progress on that.
Certain things have gotten delayed and the unbilled and converting that over into cash for instance, a space VSO charges that we described the delays associated with that higher expenses.
Has delayed our activity on that such that the cash that we would have expected to get in next year. We're now projecting getting into next year and stuff. So there's different things on different programs.
Okay.
And then Pat can I just tried.
The pricing in aircraft will more time can you maybe even I know you don't want to give a lot of specifics, but are you having more success.
Immediately in the aftermarket or are you getting some on <unk>.
OE side, I figured that the conversations with Boeing and Airbus might be a bit more challenging there and then.
Are you getting some across the military as well and then I guess with that price you talked about some of the escalators, but.
You're trying to.
Manage I guess.
Future price step downs with volumes are those components and the conversations as well.
Well thanks, Michael.
Pricing activity is across all of the Oems in all of the aftermarket. So it is not limited to OEM activity and as you know in some of our OEM contracts aftermarket is an element of the contract and Thats part of the contract with <unk>. So so all those factors are rolling into the conversations that we're having.
<unk>.
But my position is that we've made great progress with those conversations with the customers. There is a recognition on both sides that to have a sustainable business.
There has to be an adjustment and that has come through now.
Okay. So got.
Got it.
Im really pleased Michael where we got through with those conversations and the impact then as we say will show through in Q4 and throughout next year.
Perfect perfect, Okay, great I'll jump back in the queue. Thanks, guys.
And our next question is come from Cai von rumor from TD Cowen.
Yes, thanks, so much for taking my call. So.
Maybe switching back for a second to space.
Another large charge how close are we to the end of this and what should we be looking for as a milestone to say from here on out we shouldnt expect more space vehicles charges.
Hi Kai.
Welcome and thank you for the question.
I think we have really done a good job over the last.
Two months in and burning down the risk associated with that space vehicle program. There are two programs on which we have shipped units. The first six of our meteorite class units.
Those shipments completed two weeks ago or last week was the last shipment out of our facility to our customer's facility. So in terms of the integration and test activities. All of those have been completed for all six units. So thats one element that reduces the risk down we know that the hardware is functional and it is with our custom.
At this point the software.
We have a revision of software to be delivered to the customer on August 11th So thats within the next two weeks. So we are in the final stages of working through.
That will state code and so again, because we're so close to the finish line now with the software.
We have really high confidence that we have the issues addressed in terms of delivery there and we don't expect to see a change in the cost of development of the software as.
As a consequence of being so close to the finish line at this point. We also sent an expert team about two months ago to do an assessment on work left to be completed and that was part of revising the estimate to complete so 90 days ago. I would have said we were 90% complete if I look at the estimates to complete as of.
Last week, we were 97% to 98% complete.
We are.
Most of the way almost entirely through those two programs.
So is that both media and media rights to both the two vehicles basically.
HUD shipments, although six all media rights. So it is on the media rights class that we have shipped six.
Satellites.
On <unk> and the.
<unk>, we will ship the first of those in the latter part of this calendar year.
But my point around Meteor in Meteor right is that they have a common platform of avionics, which is the electronics that controls the system and a common base of software and so a lot of the complexity in the integration risk is actually associated with those parts of the system.
Many of the hardware components are also similar what might vary from one to the next is the propulsion system and the size of the solar array panels.
High level of commonality, so I would look at them as a.
Modular platforms Chi, which is another reason why we have confidence.
Got it very good answer thank you very much so getting back to the cash flow.
So what about as we think about next year. So I guess, we can expect the inventory to continue to go up but you know even with some improvement it looks like your dsos have really been going up a fair amount.
Where do you see those going next year.
Where do you see kind of your payables relative to sales and also with the <unk>.
Inventory uptick it looks like even though you are close to 23% of sales, whereas if we go back to 'twenty. Two you had gotten down to below 20%. So it looks like there is really key.
Quite a lot of excess inventory relative to your sales level when do you see that sort of starting to crest.
So I'll take that Cai will give.
Further detailed guidance on fiscal year 'twenty for when we do this.
In 90 days, but just on a general type of basis, what we can expect to see is on physical inventories as you mentioned, we're going to continue to see.
Growth, we expect that to moderate at least in this fourth quarter and we will comment more on next year and next quarter as Paul.
We will have a little bit of lumpiness associated with our customer advances our customer advances level right now is strong but it comes in lumps and we do expect to see some.
Next year, probably in the later part of next year and it's just due to program timing that we've got.
We are still expecting to generate modest levels of free cash flow generation, which is what we shared in the investor day for fiscal year 'twenty four so some of the <unk>.
Inventories that we're talking about now the physical inventory, we would not see a significant turn in that until we're getting out in the out years.
We will return to more normal levels of free cash flow.
Right, but what about the receivables I mean, the Dsos look like they also are higher I mean.
Yes.
Do you expect your collection rate to improve.
There is a couple of forces there is another offsetting forces. So let me describe that right now our <unk> sales are high there is a couple of our receivables are high. So they are high to the level of sales that we have if you look at our balance sheet right. Now there is a gross up between some receivables and advance.
As for advances that we have.
Billed but not collected until the fourth quarter, so that comes through but that just.
Shows up as.
A bad Guy in our receivables in the third quarter, but that convert fully to cash in the fourth quarter.
As our.
Sales continue to grow there is pressure on our.
Receivable that continues to happen, especially on the ramp up associated with our aircraft business, where our terms are less favorable than the average of the company and that's the area of the business that we're growing so there are some pressures associated with that but again, we do have the strong collections that were expect.
<unk> from the Q3 sales that we had as well as the advances that we are collecting in it the timing from Q3 to Q4.
Got it so.
Pat you described lots of improvements.
All sound really very good and better pricing going forward on the aircraft on a normalized basis.
Base defense like we're out of hopefully.
I have less problems from satellite vehicles.
And industrial you've got some price hikes.
You know youre looking for.
I think a 100 basis points on average for the next couple of years I mean, it would look like you would get sort of a proportional percentage.
Next year, I mean, you could be close to 100 basis points on the op margin am I reading that incorrectly.
We are feeling really confident that we're going to deliver on the 100 basis points here on average as we've said in the Investor day.
Everything that we're doing is on track towards that at this point.
Okay. Thank you very much.
You're welcome.
Yeah.
And once again, if you'd like to ask a question. Please press star one.
And Michael CMO Lee from <unk> Securities.
Please go ahead.
Oops.
Did you disconnect.
We'll give them just a moment here if anyone else would like to join please press star one.
And Michael is back. Please go ahead.
Hey can you guys hear me now.
Perfect and Michael Thank you, Okay sorry.
Sorry about that.
Pat just.
Can you give us maybe a little bit more insight into maybe.
Within space and defense do you have a lot of other.
Development contracts or new start contracts.
We are seeing this mix shift across the defense sector of legacy programs winding down new programs ramping up and I mean, just to try and get an assessment of maybe how much risk you see with some of the other contracts in there for example, I don't know if you have any firm fixed development contracts, but.
Just trying to maybe get a framework.
What else could crop up in that sector.
Mhm.
Thanks, Michael.
I think we have in general.
Reducing our exposure to from fixed contracts and our military.
Side of the business, we have some for sure we have some legacy programs that are still to close out.
And there are a couple of.
This is a business in space and defense that are still under fixed price contracts. So.
I think we.
We feel comfortable with the profile that we have there.
Michael I wouldn't say it's degrading.
Thanks for your question.
Okay.
Okay. Okay.
Perfect Yes.
That was the last one I had thanks guys.
Youre welcome. Thank you.
Okay.
And once again, if you have a question please press star one.
And I have no further questions in the queue at this time and I'll turn the call back over to you.
Aaron Astrachan. Please go ahead.
So it's back to Pat.
Appreciate you taking the time to join the call and I look forward to meeting you all again in 90 days' time.
Thank you very much.
And this concludes today's call.
Okay.
At your participation you may now disconnect.