Q2 2023 Euronav NV Earnings Call
Good day and welcome to the <unk> second quarter 2023 earnings call. All participants will be in listen only mode should you need assistance. Please signal conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero.
After todays presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions to ask a question you May Press Star then one on you touched on phone to withdraw your question. Please press Star then two please note. This event is being recorded I would now.
To turn the conference over to Brian Gallagher. Please go ahead. Thank you good morning, and afternoon to everyone and thanks for joining <unk> Q2, 2023 earnings call before I start I'd like to say a few words.
Information discussed on this call is based on information as of today Thursday. This vertical grew 2023 and may contain forward looking statements that may involve risks and uncertainties forward looking statements reflect current views with respect to future events and financial performance and May include statements concerning plans objectives goals strategies future events performance underlying.
<unk> and other statements, which are not statements of historical facts.
All forward looking statements attributable to the company off the persons acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by reference to the risks uncertainties and other factors discussed in the company's filings with the SEC, which are available free of charge unless you see website at Ww adult FCC don't come in or on our own company website at Www Dot youre in half two.
Come.
You should not place undue attention or reliance on forward looking statements. Each forward looking statement speaks only as of the date of the particular statement and the company undertakes no obligation to publicly update to revise any forward looking statements actual results may differ materially from these forward looking statements. Please take a moment to read off safety I'll say public statements rather on page.
Two of the slide presentation.
I'll now pass on to our interim Chief Executive and CFO leave a lager to start with the content slide on slide three levo over to you.
Thank you, Brian and good morning, or afternoon to wherever you are and as I'll come to our call.
Those run through the Q2 highlights and financials before bouncing back to Bryan or head of Investor Relations and communications.
Right. Some further wider market thoughts I there'll be turned to summarize to be out.
The current tier continues to confound tanker market convention.
It would be more usual to be discussing Q2 and contacts and contract there's no slow down in freight activity and refinery maintenance programs.
However, the freight market for Q2 was very similar in outcome to Q1.
This included a spike in rates towards the end of the quarter.
Predicting a relatively tight <unk> dynamic between supply of vessels and demand for crude movements.
But these results also underline is these are you of the you don't have that for them and it's striking ability to harness this market dynamic for the benefit of shareholders.
This was our best ever Q2 operating performance outside the Covid pandemic.
I'll say a bit more about operating leverage in a minutes.
There's a new supervisory board in place a strong balance sheet and good visibility very positive medium term fundamentals.
Do you have enough investors stand to continue benefiting in different terms.
Our Q2 dividend.
<unk> per share reflects boards confidence and the euronext for them and the strength of the current and upcoming tanker cycle.
Turning now to the financials in more depth.
This slide reflects the strength of the euro enough platform financially.
Additionally, and strategically.
Operationally the operational leverage is reflected in strong returns with a net profit at 168, one 161 excuse me like $8 million similar to Q1 results.
Financially balance sheet leverage is at 47.5%.
Do you find in steam has further boosted our liquidity with a new facility to $742 million.
Those little piece strategically do you have enough platform continues to grow.
During the first half we have added three brand new vlccs with maximum optionality to deal with the challenges of fueling tankers going forwards.
Last month, we took delivery of a new suezmax and look forward to adding four mark such vessels in the next 12 months at the start of what we have come since consistently said over the past here is what we believe to be a multiyear up cycle for the large crude tanker markets.
Did that I don't know pass it over to Brian to give some further thoughts on the current market cycle.
Thank you Lisa thank.
The tanker market has always remained very dynamic, but in all sense also very constructive.
Forecast for oil demand to continue to grow consistently over the last nine to 10 months.
On slide eight.
<unk> forecast consistent upgrades to this number I'm used to support the tanker markets along with positive ton mile development on the left hand side, you can see the loadings west of Suez and therefore heading for the far east of continued to grow at the expense of those coming into the direction.
Put very simply crude.
Crude is troubling much further than it was previously and that's helping to drive a higher demand for shipping even if consumption and production alright, so similar numbers.
Oh I'm sorry.
No I mean, if we now move to a project, which we've been involved with over the recent months and operationally, we'll continue to be engaged with off the Yemeni coast.
The salvage of the episodes safer.
Off the Yemeni coast is a critical mission, but youre in half is provided to the OCC to the U N in order to take the excess 1.2 million barrels of oil away from this particular site.
Alright.
This careful exchange is currently ongoing with your in African Sydney to provide operational support and staff to the wider salvage operation we've been proud to be involved in this operation and hope it will conclude successfully in the coming weeks.
We now turn on slide 10, two industry, which continues to arise in the minds of oil market and tanker investors alike.
Hum.
On slide 10, we refer to the recent speculation that again resurfaced in may regarding you're wrong on a potential deal involving the nuclear talks I remember it tends to a more normal oil market engagement for the country.
We believe it is important to remind investors of the outsized effect. This would have on the tanker market should this event to car audio and partial or total terms.
As the charts on slide 10 on the left hand side shows, Iran has ramped up production to a five year high at around one 5 million barrels per day.
Most of this production is being exported by the talk fleet.
Yeah, and it remains a very big if Iran, but to return to the world economic order.
And they committed to export crude block commercial tonnage. This would imply around 1.5 million barrels per day of export opportunity that is currently denied commercial players like youre announcing.
This is likely to expand as the right hand side of the chart shows as Iran has recently.
As 2017, and producing up to $3 5 million barrels per day of crude Iran remains one of the few nation capable of expanding production relatively quickly.
So again, whilst it remains the biggest.
In the world, but the world.
I'll start again.
So Boston remains a big if.
The world is already consuming Iranian oil any production uplift from here it would increase the net supply for global consumption.
However, the shipping out the effect you saw a larger but this would benefit from the 1.5 million barrels per day currently being consumed so they cannot access.
Any increase and this would also benefit our market exponentially.
Clearly some of the shipping would come from Iran doesn't baked, but everyone's return remains a potential seismic positive for tanker markets and should not be forgotten.
With that I will turn it back to leave it for any summer. So many comments and I'll focus on the traffic lights. They go back to you.
Thanks, Brian Q2 was the second best quarter for rates since 1919, and VLCC terms. It was seven best his gifts context to how well underpinned and strong our markets are.
Demand continues to remain robust supported by ton mile growth.
OPEC cuts are beginning to gain traction, but the impact needs to be seen against stronger seasonal demand, which we expect from later this current quarter.
We've made no change to our traffic lights, but anticipate a positive seasonal trading pattern to it.
Merch support has been there.
So to sum up the euro enough got firm isn't a rubbish shape. We are positioned for further growth and have a balance sheet to support further strategic opportunities as they arise.
And in the meantime, the platform is delivering returns to shareholders via dividends.
All of this means that we can look to the future with confidence.
And with that Brian and I will be very happy to take your questions. So I'll hand, it back to the operator for the Q&A.
Thank you we will now begin the question and answer session.
Ask a question you May press Star then one on your Touchtone phone.
If youre using a speakerphone please pick up your handset before pressing the keys to withdraw your question. Please press Star then two.
In the interest of time, please limit yourself to one question and one follow up at this time, we'll pause momentarily to assemble our roster.
And our first question comes from Jon Chappell from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Thank you and good morning, or good afternoon.
We have a first question for you I'm sure. The answer is its a board decision on a quarterly basis. However, a noteworthy that the payout ratio moved up to 100% this quarter are.
Not just within the context of your liquidity being so strong in the market being as robust as it is but also with the with the new board members in tow so.
Should we read this sense of being a one quarter anomaly and will take it as it goes or is this maybe the view of the new board that given the market strength.
Payout ratio it could be above the 80% threshold.
Hi, Joe Good to hear you good morning, or good afternoon. So indeed, a very good question and we don't know if it's a one off fee, but the supervisory board clearly has made a decision based on our current LTV, which is 30% and they don't see bad days coming so be it.
So that's a Q2 payout ratio was 100%. If this continues is something that we have to see and have a look at Ah. Indeed, Q3, but as you rightfully mentioned in the past it wasn't an 80% payout ratio and to be looked at what the Q3 brings them absolutely. It's like you say, it's a supervisory.
Bart decision, we propose but it it's Cindy and the supervisory board, representing the shareholders, who are taking into decisions and there you have all the dependent shareholders. But you also then board members, but also our undefended board members, who are representing the minority share.
So it's a common decision, let's just take in each quarter.
Okay. Thank you.
For my follow up Brian as it relates to the back half outlook. So the Saudi cuts it seems like they're finally biting from an output perspective, but maybe not so much on the tanker rates how much of this is what's called substitution.
As you laid out kind of on on slide eight and how much of it is a more of the fact that just the demand is improving at a greater pace than people had expected.
A little bit of a inventory build ahead of the winter in the northern hemisphere.
Well I think it's both of those John but I think we would factor in another.
Hi, Chris good to hear you.
Yeah, you as well.
The question for either review this is just around the cash breakeven levels currently for the company. So if you could just walk through that.
Yeah. So the number cruncher here. It's so just the number sad to give you an end and insight and discrete so our suezmax cash break even for the time being a 16000 and VLCC 19, thousands <unk>. So this is what we are currently having as a cash breakeven.
Uhm, a piano breakeven most in the presentation 18000, Swiss Max's and it's 23004 four V. L. C C.
Okay, great. Thank you try and this might be a question for you. So over the past few days referred from the some of the product tanker companies talking about their agent sweet, especially as it relates to LR twos and they'd mentioned a few times about 15 year olds choose potentially going dirty.
Coming into the crude trade at some point I just wanted to get your thoughts around that and is there any worry from your end I know you guys don't operate in the aftermath segment, but is there any worry on your end that that supply could be coming.
No no Julie I think we've always had a strong view that we've we've never really understood. The view that there'll be a lot of jumping between the two segments.
And of course this is quite costly in an operation that you still have an asterix <unk>. When you do flip between the two sectors and I saw some of the product guys talk about more than the Creek is we don't really see anything that I still think the <unk> you know you've got this potential another leg of growth right from X coming from the <unk>.
<unk> with some of it was that was the pipelines potentially opening the on the on the Pacific Coast. So uhm no <unk>, it's not somebody will keeps us awake at night far from it and we've always felt that any any switching between the products and the crude is reasonably marginal unreasoning specialized under the trends at too great really that listening to give us any sort of concern on that front.
Alright got it yeah. Thanks for that alternate over thank you.
Thanks, Chris.
The next question comes from Chris sung from Weber Research. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon Weaver, Brian how are Ya.
<unk>. Thank you.
Hi, I wanted to just ask about your complete renewal you guys have a few 17 year old <unk> like how do you think about that.
And you know and and <unk> <unk>.
<unk> prices.
Here, we we continue on over strategy <unk>, there is an opportunity <unk> and indeed continue the policy we had to previously a N D to selling and then taking opportunities for you to come in for your information you've read to be still have four to come on to Walter Smith Max's.
Often depressing, which has been delivered in in the in July . So we could continue that strategy going forward anything oppurtunity speed remain interested and absolutely no proposes to our supervisory board.
Okay, Sir nothing just my follow up and noticed the Janice I'll significantly is that more than outliers.
How should we think of it on like a monthly going forward.
Yeah. Good question. Indeed, we touched upon it also last time <unk> is still a bit loaded tomato pickle corporate crusty in the first quarter, we still had those legal costs.
Which were kicking in and now also like you to we still have some extra loot there, but indeed it goes to the good direction, it's absolutely very clear focus for us to have that cost under control as much as possible, but good good shot.
Okay alright. Thanks, so much that's it for me I turn it over.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Chris whether it be from Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. This is Madeleine for Chris Thanks for taking my question. If we could just go over to the Red like Reading My chart and just thinking about the demand for crude specifically.
You think about the state of the global macro playing out just wanted to get your sense of the puts and takes you know about the remainder of 2023 regarding any incremental changes that you might see specific to China, you know as they attempt to emerge from a little bit of a you know a weaker economic period. I know you noted that in the past that China's a crucial swing factor. So I just wanted to hear.
Any thoughts fares as well as you know, how how Iran, Iran could play into the scenario.
Yeah. The question I mean, I mean, the three things on the joint aside as the clearly from.
From our perspective, we don't see the Chinese just buying from from an economic G. D. P perspective is clearly very important part of what they're doing the second factor, which we think is is not bringing them properly focused on partly cause it's very hard to get some numbers is by continuing to buy from rationale from a strategic perspective, so there's still the building reserves.
Third element is obviously, there's a very strong train of refinery expansion in that country, which needs to crude as a free to talk to me then repatriated as diesel another product back into into the global markets. So there's a diversity to the Chinese angle, which we think it gives it a certain amount of resilience better.
You'll guess is as good as ours in terms of if if they're gonna have a substantial slowdown from here, but we're not seeing any entity of that and we get a lot of confidence in those three factors I think all of US <unk> from six months ago was surprised how resilient the global GDP background has been and the gang that's been sort of reasonably well documented and his underpins and you say.
<unk> presentation with CIA upgrading almost consistently since November .
November and they'll get you sent over the investment banks have upgraded this the last a few weeks and with regard to the wrong. It's not somebody that we we we sort of hanging you'll hats on it was just it's just the fact that it just it's just the way the refuses to go away. We were surprised anyone a few weeks ago, and we sort sort of being talked about.
And of course, because it's a source of of quote rapid production gross potentially and then <unk>.
It could happen there could be some sort of of deal which remain around with come back into into the phone and I think it just we need to we wanted to <unk> <unk> I'm invested in a comatose just to make sure that they're aware of of how outside the impact would be on <unk>. They would have a much bigger impact in <unk>, Illinois markets. So round trip, yeah, we we feel that <unk>.
A number of resilience seems with regards to the outlook for for crude demand and that's being reflected short term and and then the the pricing of of the crude but also in particular as we see from office specific market. You know very good fright rights and what is traditionally a very very quiet time of year.
Fantastic and really appreciate that and then just just following up on the on their own comment. You know is there is there sort of any type of timeline that that you guys would be you know.
Sort of eyeballing in terms of you know when that potential benefit could come online and then you know what what exactly would that how how exactly would that translate for you or not specifically.
Oh no no. It was the week on the timeline I mean, it's almost anyone a quote I think we've got a hotline two m's divide in or anything but no. It it's more of a flag the potential changes it could happen. It's obviously the <unk> the <unk>.
<unk> very relatively few sources that can be tapped to immediately increase the supply of oil and if it but you know with.
The war against inflation, that's could become a very important factor in terms of timelines in the background. So that no. There's there's there's no sense of when it would happen how it would impact on your enough and other commercial players and the coaches space lock ourselves is that you're opening up barrels which are currently not available to us if they're available will be shipped by around.
Oh, sorry, if we're able to ship from Iran. Then at 1.5 anybody else, but they are a potential market, which is is completely books away from all of us on the commercial side of the moment. That's the reason to plug it but look it's it's it's a it's a black Swan if you like opposed to the one but one which we don't have any move any price of visibility to anyone else but.
We felt it was worth flagging given it had been a a story, which it's sort of arisen out of nowhere early on in the future.
Understood. Okay. Thank you very much for the clarification very good I'm so proud of it.
Thank you.
The next question comes from <unk> from Jeffries. Please go ahead.
Thank you good afternoon, Brian Uhm I just wanted to ask about how things are kind of operating from from a corporate standpoint, clearly from the results today things look like they're running quite well, but just wanted to ask you know given all the changes that have been taken place you know with Hugo gone in and a new supervisory board in place Uhm have there been any changes.
And how the business you're an app is running day today and really how how involved as a new board with with management's decision making.
Omar Indeed, good afternoon.
Also for stakeholders in there and then the new Supervisory Board currently gives us a positive dynamic I think it's professional and contribute <unk>. That's the current to order a new supervisory board is challenging us in terms of cough.
Renewal and for sure they are wanting us to be the best contact a competition and this gives us a positive dynamic making is very focused on the way forward and hands you saw the results.
<unk> and even beating expectations. There so from that perspective, I think it's a very positive plus that'd be good mentioned here.
Okay, alright, thanks leave it that that's that's that's a good color because I was gonna ask just sort of strategically about about where you see you're not heading you. You. You. Obviously you mentioned that the strategy in it whether it's disposable disposal of athletes looking at new buildings I did want it may be asking is there some kind of.
Uhm.
As a as a restructuring of your nap a foregone conclusion, you think or can the business sort of operate as it is and is there perhaps maybe a strategic.
Big picture, that's gonna be announced here in the next perhaps few quarters a few months that says okay. This is what you're not plan to do going forward Here's our new strategy is there anything like that that's on the horizon based off of your conversations with the management team and the board how would you.
Characterize what are you an avid strategically here in the coming in the coming months.
<unk>, Oh mercy from that perspective, and I can understand the question. Because this is I think a lot of shareholders and stakeholders here, having that question on the top of their mind, but here I can confirm to you that apparently currently there is absolutely no change in strategy, we ran the vertical integrated platform.
His delivery and this is where we continue our journey.
I could imagine if there was a change be there'll be informed and everything and there'll be announced at directly to the market, but for the time being no changes to be continue and we enjoy the current upcycle. This is very standing for and I cannot say more here than that'd be continue the journey with it.
Teams, we have on this strategy, which is in place.
Nope that Thanksgiving now that that that's helpful color I, just obviously very sensitive questions and sensitive dynamic overall I just wanted to hear.
<unk>. Thank you I'll I'll pass it over.
No. Thank you Omar.
The next question comes from <unk> from Clark's in Securities. Please go ahead.
Thank you I ever what.
Discuss the.
Yeah.
Could we discuss the impact of a Russian crude exports.
How are the cuts from August .
The market and what's your outlook.
<unk>.
Perfect.
<unk>, Yeah, as we mentioned before we've seen some evidence that there's been some drink you too bye as of what would previously been sort of dark trade or or sanction trade from from Russia that the I'd also India, who jumped into the commercial play.
Gage commercial tanker companies like ourselves.
Taken some barrels from more lightly from the Atlantic than anywhere else. So it hasn't been as Jonathan said earlier might be a bit of a substitution effect, but the dark proceeded any sort of real cuts we'd seen in production next bills from Russia, So <unk> or any sort of strengthening that trend is not a trade with doing ourselves, though she says I'm sure you're aware and of course with the pricing.
Now with the the crude underlying where it is against the year was pricing. We think that person is gonna continue so I think what we would expect to see that.
The dog fleets gonna sort of have to sort of shoulder.
More exaggerated elements of that Uhm tried disappearing, partly because I've been doing most of it themselves, but also partly because it's an inefficient tried we think a lot of those players will just sort of pop Netflix for a period of time. So we we actually think that it can be reasonably muted impact on the commercial players like ourselves but.
It's only being.
Those cuts become very very profound and we don't really say that outlook either but so so for the moment. We thought we don't we think it can be a relatively limited impact on us.
Okay are there any other reasons for a week from access <unk> you've seen.
You know how do you see that those relative to the help with it.
They used to try the premium to <unk> and.
Yeah. So that's a come back hat without the premium or <unk>.
Now behind Us.
Over time, we would expect to fill out that that longer term as you're starting a medium term.
It's sort of structure in profile to return with a V as will be more leading we felt the babies has been <unk> fighting back as a sub sector they've been more and more involved in this <unk> <unk> I'm, taking some of that oil ultimately to join her into into India <unk>.
Expect to see.
<unk>, we're seeing very long, who tried to beginning to develop on a substitution basis from the Atlantic to the far east that that would reestablish itself. We're still gonna be C. Pockets as you mentioned before they're from Mexico feels reasonably well physician to us with some new growth opportunities in particular start coming from Canada, but the suezmax will be somewhere in between but this isn't it.
Be an incident sort of reestablishment of that only market I think he's gonna take another we think it's gonna take another six to 12 months, we see that but we're very comfortable and the view that would the <unk> wrist. So there were preeminence pulling more lightning 2024.
Okay sounds great. Thank you.
Next Friday.
The next question comes from Ben One from Stifel. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks, So I have a couple the first is I believe that there.
Has been an expansion of corpus just recently or an expansion to some of the Corpus Christi.
Export capacity that enables.
Later loading curvy L P C's Ah, which removes a little old to reverse laddering dynamic just trying to think through Bryan. If if you guys have considered sort of what how we should think about or how how you think about the impact.
That is it draw and mommy's and that's helped the the the market or does the inefficiency of reverse spidery sort of.
I'll set that.
No I think it's the same as before.
In particular from where we were if we go back to the ancient times, just sort of 2017 19. When there was looking arms race between each of those locations down there with with Corpus Christi being one of the most prominent ones. We think it's sort of re establishing itself now as as as a theme.
Consistently now in the <unk> five many barrels per day of of U S. Exports. So now we think it's gonna become.
A new great quote and the good news for the commercial sector in particular and I was quoted companies is that you know, it's it's a reasonably focused market and uhm suppliers. It can enjoy that that market all those big commercial plays like ourselves.
We'd like to train that's really beginning to three reasserts itself again, and as we know that <unk>.
Oh, sorry production of U S crude as is being exported so no. It's it's a bit of a reheating I mean, it should be the paper and if you're in one of our annual reports I think it was in 2017.
No no that was supposed to be taken away with COVID-19, but with a lot of those things you're worried about that and we are relevant today again.
Okay, and then as it relates to the advisory Board and I appreciate that.
You know a there's some degree of <unk>, we'll see how it plays out but uhm I'm thinking about the <unk> acknowledging that it's business as usual but.
<unk> is it fair to assume that in the near term, there's probably unlikely to be any material changes and the fleet mix between other than the new buildings you know just.
You're not really being active in buying or selling anything at that at a fair or something.
Oh <unk>.
From that perspective also I only can reiterate what I'm, saying is that having the supervisory board currently that ethical made good good topics. They are absolutely supportive and they'll contribute to the nets bottom line.
Okay.
Alright, thank you.
<unk>. Thank you ma'am.
Yeah, and if you have a question. Please press Star then one.
And the next question comes from <unk> from a B N Amro Auto VHF. Please go ahead.
<unk> can you maybe gave a <expletive> beta <unk> on on how we should look at the procedure or finding or appointing a new C E O and whether you are <unk>.
Part of the procedure.
<unk>. Thank you first of all good afternoon. So indeed for your information the entering position continue C and honestly, we don't what was the question I raised the question, we have no a bit of confidence because of the good results and thanks to the team. This is the only me, but this is the <unk>.
And asked him.
<unk> for the time being there is no urgency in one or the other direction <unk>. The team continues to be focused on the platform delivering results for our shareholders proceed from that perspective, there is no urgency and let's see where it brings us if you need to get a bit of reasonable time to all stakeholders to settle in and see what comes <unk>.
Nothing on the horizon in one or the other direction days.
But it's not that let's say recruiters has been hi, Eric.
To find someone else or so.
Not that I'm aware of it and I think yeah.
Nope that type of all set days nope.
Okay, then a follow up question on potential till changed it says <unk>.
Is it possible or happening already right. Nowadays you proposed facial capex and other official class of <unk>.
Pardon.
<unk> to be to be clear on this E V. R. Smith, Max's TLC Cecil Derby have absolute expertise. So you could imagine that if you go with files that this will be primarily oriented towards suezmax vlcc's, you'll never know that the reason interested in doing something else with for the time being the continue with our expertise what.
We have with the teams and which is very much focused on says Mexican vlcc's.
Okay.
Good.
That's a good day.
Thank you you too.
The next question comes from Sharif Uhm like Robbie from B T. I G. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question I wanted to ask about forward bookings almost half of Q3 has been fixed at about $45000 prescriber fitted vlccs and can you remind us how much of your VLCC fleet has scrubbers and is there a program to outfit the rest of the flea over time.
So currently he I I see it as one with Mexico as well as if you don't see <unk> squibb upset the specials on a total of about 70 <unk>. So this is currently <unk> a good diversification that'll balance the from that perspective, so all our new bills.
Having scrubbers and we do indeed for for some Vlcc's, who are below 10 years old to be have done some <unk>.
So in total 20 on the total a fee for the time being.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
This concludes our question and answer session I would like to turn the conference back over to leave a logger for any closing remarks.
Thank you Jason So thank you to give me the opportunity to thank Brian and any out to stand by my side for this call I would like to thank the <unk> for the <unk> the quarter, which has been run the very very well and I'm looking forward to what comes next and I would like to thank all the listeners to this call for this.
The interest and the Internet I.
I think as a concluding remark or a conclusion I can say do you have enough platform is it all positioned to continue his journey for all its shareholders and taking advantage of the upcycle.
Wishing you all a very good day and here in the next time. Thank you bye bye.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation you may now disconnect.
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