Q2 2023 Kemper Corporation Earnings Call
[music].
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Kemper's second quarter 2000, <unk> earnings Conference call. My name is JP and I will be required to nature today.
At this time all participants are in a listen only mode.
Later, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will follow at that time.
As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded for replay purposes.
I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference call.
Gara.
First vice President of Investor Relations Mr. <unk>.
You may begin.
Thank you operator, good afternoon, everyone and welcome to Kemper's discussion of our second quarter 2023 result.
This afternoon, you'll hear from Joe Lacher, Kemper's, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Chairman, Jim Mckinney, Kemper's, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Matt Hutton.
As executive Vice President and President of Kemper Auto will make a few opening remarks to provide context around our second quarter results followed by a Q&A session. During the interactive portion of our call. Our presenters will be joined by John with Shelley Kemper's Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer.
After the market's close today, we issued our earnings release and published our earnings presentation financial supplement and Form 10-Q, you can find these documents on the investors section of our website <unk> Dot com. Our discussion today may contain forward looking statements within the meaning of the safe Harbor provisions of the private Securities Litigation Reform Act of <unk>.
1995. These statements include but are not limited to the company's outlook and its future results of operations and financial condition, our actual future results and financial condition may differ materially from these statements for information on additional risks that may impact. These forward looking statements. Please refer to our 2020 Form 10-K.
As well as our second quarter earnings release. This afternoon's discussion also includes non-GAAP financial measures. We believe are meaningful to investors in our financial supplement earnings presentation and earnings release, we have defined and reconciled all the non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP, where required in accordance with the SEC rules you can.
Find each of these documents on the investors section of our website <unk> Dot com all comparative references will be to the corresponding 2022 period, unless otherwise stated I will now turn the call over to Joe.
Thanks, Karen and good afternoon, everyone and thank you for joining us today.
The industry continues to operate in what I believe is the most disrupted personal lines environment, we've ever experienced.
Competitors earnings reports underscore this.
While our financial results through the first half of 2023 fell short of our targets. We believe the actions we've taken and continue to take have positioned us to succeed in this difficult environment.
Before talking about our results I want to take a moment to explain a bit about this operating environment.
Traditional traditionally historical patterns are used by the industry.
To predict future behavior.
Okay.
Skus me used by the industry to predict future behavior, and they are producing patterns outside the historical norms.
This variance is seen in broader aspects of consumer behavior. A few examples include buying triggers price elasticity and changes in driving patterns propensity is to file claims seek medical treatments and repair of vehicles and the willingness to litigate.
These pattern changes are exacerbated by subsequent broad swings in competitors' actions.
We believe this environment will continue for at least the next couple of years correspondingly. It has created a hard market that will likely persist for an extended period of time.
Our specialty market expertise and our nimble and efficient operating model position us to effectively navigate this environment.
We're continuing to evolve our capabilities. This includes investing in broad enhancements and business intelligence and accelerating the speed that we digest and execute on insights.
We have and continue to increase the forward looking predictive analytics, we use to operate our business.
At the same time, we've increased our execution margin of safety.
Our ultimate priority is to achieve target returns and we are continuing to focus ourselves and our business to facilitate this.
And ultimately to position ourselves to grow profitably and safely at the right time.
Against this backdrop, let's discuss our results turning to our presentation I hope you'll take away the following.
First we had strong sequential improvement in the underlying profitability of each of our businesses.
Second the strategic initiatives, we announced last November are on track to realize the anticipated benefits and produce meaningful value for our stakeholders.
Third we reiterate our guidance, we expect to achieve an underwriting profit in the second half of 2023 and.
And for 2024, we expect to generate a return on equity equal to or greater than 10%.
Moving to page four.
The consolidated results included strong underlying profitability improvement against the backdrop of elevated catastrophe losses and adverse prior year development largely related to the second half of 2022.
The six point sequential improvement in specialty P&C was the result of accelerating impacts of earned rate and non rate actions exceeding loss trend as well as the normalizing of the episodic items, we experienced last quarter.
This improvement demonstrates that our actions are taking hold and producing the anticipated benefits.
One final financial highlight I'd like to point out is our recent approval of approximately 30 points of rate by the California Department of insurance for our specialty P&C private passenger auto book.
The collaborative effort between our teams and the CDI enabled a successful outcome.
The rate change was effective August 4th.
I'd like to now move to our strategic projects as a reminder, last November we announced a series of initiatives to unlock additional shareholder value.
All of these programs are on track to be completed on time and produce or exceed their financial targets and operational benefits.
Key updates on these initiatives include.
We received approval from the Illinois Department of insurance for the formation of our reciprocal.
Phase two of our Bermuda optimization effort is outperforming initial benefit projections.
We completed the strategic review of our preferred P&C segment and announced our decision to exit that business.
This action will enhance our return on capital and support profitable growth in our core businesses.
And finally, we are achieving the expected expense savings with our cost structure initiatives.
We are highly focused on maximizing shareholder value and this begins with returning the business to profitability.
Solid progress we achieved this quarter is proof that the actions we've taken are generating the intended outcomes all.
All the while we are advancing our long term initiatives to enhance kemper's strategic and financial profile.
I'll now turn the call over to Jim to talk about more details.
Thank you Joe I'll begin on page five with our consolidated financial results.
We are pleased that each of our segments had strong underlying improvements that position us for profitability in the back half of the year. Several factors offset this progress, including goodwill impairment catastrophes and prior year development.
For the quarter, we had a net loss of $1 52 per diluted share and an adjusted consolidated net operating loss of 26.
The net loss included approximately $46 million of goodwill impairment charge connected to the strategic review of the preferred P&C segment.
Non cash charge represents the full value of the goodwill associated with this business.
The net loss and adjusted consolidated net operating loss included $39 million of current year catastrophe losses. The result of a very active cat quarter for the industry and $26 million of adverse reserve development.
Turning to the prior year reserve development on page six.
The adverse development was primarily driven by bodily injury and property damage activity that occurred during the second half of 2022.
This was caused by pattern changes between the second and the third quarters of 2022. These include an extension in claim reporting timelines and more claims closing with payments the first quarter of 2023 and accident quarters. Prior to the third quarter of 2022, generally aligned with or favorable to our prior loss selections the show.
Tail nature of our business and the speed with which we collect and assess data provide us with high confidence in our reserving processes and their continued ability to react quickly to evolving conditions.
Turning to page seven.
As Joe mentioned, we are reiterating our previous financial guidance. Despite the dynamic environment. We are committed to producing an underwriting profit in the second half of 2023, and achieving an roe equal to or greater than 10% in 2024.
Turning to page eight.
Here, we outlined specialty auto's path to underwriting profitability, our second quarter underlying combined ratio guidance was 103 to 107, we reported and underlying combined ratio of 102 slightly below the low end of our range in the third quarter, we expect further improvement and to generate an underlying combined ratio between 99 and 101.
Assumptions, our risks are outlined on pages seven and eight.
Pages, nine and 10 provide an update on our strategic initiatives.
Each program is on track to be completed on time and produced or exceed its targeted financial and operational benefits.
Starting with the reciprocal the Illinois Department of insurance approved the formation of Kemper reciprocal we expect to write business within the reciprocal in the third quarter, we will provide additional programs scheduled details during our third quarter call.
Our Bermuda optimization initiative launched in 2022 is expected to unlock a higher amount of life dividend to the parent we expect at least $200 million to be released before year end up from $100 million as previously indicated.
As Joe mentioned, we recently completed a review of the preferred P&C segment.
The business will be wound down and the focus will be on our people policyholders and working with our regulators to achieve the best possible outcome. The wind down of the business will enable the redeployment of more than $300 million in capital to our core segments. This will simplify the business and enhanced capital deployment efficiency.
As a result, starting in the third quarter, our segment reporting will only reflect our specialty P&C and life and health businesses.
And finally, our cost reduction initiatives are on track to produce their intended benefits consistent with our timing expectations. Since the program's inception, we have achieved approximately $117 million in run rate savings of roughly 80% of the intended run rate savings goal previously anticipated to be achieved by 2025.
Once completed we expect these initiatives will significantly enhance kemper's financial profile, including enhancing cash flow generation and reducing volatility.
Moving to page 11.
Our insurance companies are appropriately capitalized and have significant sources of liquidity at the end of the quarter, we had approximately $1 billion in availability.
We continue to have the capital needed to navigate this environment, while continuing to appropriately invest in our advancing our core capabilities.
Further as previously disclosed we are committed to reducing debt outstanding by $150 million and bringing our debt to capital ratio back to our long term target of 17% to 22%.
Moving to page 12 net.
Net investment income for the quarter was $106 million a pretax equivalent annualized book yield was four 5%.
Average investment grade new money yields for the quarter were 5% to 6%.
Now I'll turn the call over to Matt to discuss the specialty P&C business.
Thank you Jim and good afternoon, everyone moving to page 13 in our specialty P&C business, we closed the second quarter with an underlying combined ratio improvement of six points. This was driven by the combination of incremental earned rate tightened underwriting actions the normalizing of episodic items and expense efficiencies, we observed loss trend continuing to moderate frequency.
<unk> was flat year over year, and severity was up 2% sequentially.
<unk> losses in the quarter were elevated the two points are 17 million, we experienced was above average.
It included a higher level of events from Florida floods to Texas Hailstorms.
Including the recent California rate approvals, Joe mentioned, the cumulative written rate since the second quarter of 2021 is expected to increase to 54 points next quarter.
Of this rate 17 points have earned in and that will increase to approximately 23 points by the end of the third quarter we.
We expect earned in rate to accelerate.
The California book Renews in future quarters.
We will continue to file for additional rate in all states as needed.
Shifting to the commercial vehicle business, our underwriting and rate actions are continuing to positively impact loss performance in the second quarter. The underlying combined ratio was 93, 9% the.
The business is expected to deliver strong underwriting profits in the second half of 2023.
The loss environment continues to be volatile and we are being appropriately cautious in writing new business. We expect to continue to suppress new business throughout the third quarter and the fourth quarter, we plan to selectively right incremental new business to test new customer cohort buying and claim behavior particular items of interest include price.
Elasticity reporting patterns and treatment and repair propensity this will enhance our ability to optimally manage customer acquisition in a more disruptive operating environment.
We will make monthly and quarterly evaluations on the gradual expansion of new business based on first our current view of underwriting profitability as well as the learnings from these tests.
In summary, we expect a continued volatile operating environment for at least the next couple of years. We believe our actions will provide continued improvement to underwriting performance delivering on our profitability targets during the second half of 2023 and 2024.
Through this period, we will continue a test and learn approach to safely and profitably manage new customer acquisition I will now turn the call over to Joe to cover the preferred and life businesses.
Thanks, Matt.
Moving to page 14 in our preferred P&C segment.
This quarter the benefits of profit restoration actions, including the continuation of lower frequency from non rate actions offset higher catastrophe losses of $21 million.
Both auto and home another had sequential improvement in their underlying combined ratios.
Through the second quarter, our personal auto book had 10 points of rate earned that will increase to approximately 14 points in the third quarter.
As previously discussed our strategic review is complete going forward. This segment will be noncore.
Turning to our life and health business on page 15.
I think we're all still getting used to how to read and interpret life financial statements Post L. D T I adoption.
To help provide clarity into items that impact distributable cash flow trends my comments will focus on the drivers that impact. This measure these items had not been impacted by L. D T I adoption.
This quarter, we saw the lowest level of mortality mortality frequency and at least the last 10 years.
It is 12% below the 2018 in 2019 averages.
Year over year, the average incurred gross death benefit is down over 1%.
Issued premium is up a half a percent.
Life Persistency is aligned with pre pandemic levels.
The combination of these items positions the business for continued improved profitability and attractive distributable cash flow.
Turning to page 16.
In summary.
I'll leave you and remind you this the.
The strong sequential results, we generated this quarter demonstrate a meaningful step in the right direction I continue to be confident about our ability to return the business to underwriting profitability in what is a difficult and dynamic operating environment.
Highlights for the quarter again include significant rate progress in the state of California, receiving approximately 30 points of specialty personal auto rate.
Strong progress on our strategic initiatives, including our Bermuda optimization effort and the establishment of the reciprocal exchange the realization of over half of the desired benefits from the restructuring and integration initiatives and the completion of the strategic review of our preferred P&C segment in.
In closing I'd like to thank our entire Kemper team for their continued dedication to executing our strategic priorities to generate consistent long term shareholder value.
With that operator, we may now take questions.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, we will now conduct the question and answer session. If you have a question. Please press star followed by the number one on your Touchtone phone you will hear at three phone prompt acknowledging your request.
I would like to cancel your request please press star two.
Enter you lift the headset, if you're using a speaker phone before pressing any keys.
Your first question comes from the line of Greg Peters from Raymond James.
Now open.
Okay. Good afternoon, everyone.
So.
I'll ask a couple of calls.
Greg I'm not sure. Unfortunately, we can't hear you.
It seems like Greg's line.
But as we move from the podium if Greg Good Press Star one again. Please so why don't we go ahead and move to the next question and we'll get Greg back in queue when he's back.
Okay. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.
Hello, Thanks for the call.
I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about the impact.
Non.
Rate actions.
In the quarter on the underlying business.
We have seen the full impact there.
And it's just going to be sort of the impact of greet prospectively or if theres. Some other things that are happening under the hood.
It would be helpful.
Sure, Paul and maybe I'll take a start and we'll tag team. This a little bit I'm going to give you a broad comment and then you guys can talk a little bit specifically.
We're going to continue to have a set of non rate actions that are going on and they're gonna have differing potential impacts.
As an example, we significantly slowed down new business.
Last quarter.
And we will likely have that slowed down largely in the third quarter.
That provides its a non rate action that provides an immediate benefit to calendar year losses, when we think about a cohort or its experience. It tends to have higher losses in its first year and lower losses in subsequent years. So if you slow that new business down in the period you do it it gives you a little juice.
Eventually we're gonna be writing more new business and that will expand Matt was very careful in his comments and so as I that we are likely to do some gradual expansion in the fourth quarter, but very much with a test and learn orientation to look at the patterns of what's going on in the environment.
That may provide a nominal pressure, but we're going to be focused first on underwriting profitability.
And making sure that it's not a significant driver there in that we're using are to learn.
What patterns are going on that will likely cause us to add underwriting tools.
To our to our toolbox or or how we use them given the volatile nature of the current environment. So I'm going to expect we're going to continue to find different non rate actions to manage things going forward.
What you're asking is how to model in.
Your what Youre looking for and what I might guide you to is you might want to take an earned rate measure.
For improvement for a while until we target or we get close to target profitability.
And then.
Youre going to work off work off our guidance from there.
The measure should be focus you on our guidance and the timing that comes from that.
As we hit those targets, we don't anticipate dropping to a 75 combined ratio, we anticipate that once we've clearly and solidly in comfortably gotten there with our expanded margin of safety.
Will will move towards.
Growing again, I'm not signaling a growing in the third or fourth quarter, but will move in that direction. So it will start offsetting some of that.
Yeah.
Paul This is Jim the only thing I would add on to what Joe said is.
I think you have a couple a little bit of incremental benefit that you might see coming in in the third quarter from underwriting actions, but most of them to see at this stage is going to be incremental earned rate.
That will flow into the book and that will again similar aligned with Joe's comments. The other that will begin to offset and take the place of.
Some of the underwriting actions that have been put in place today to help us get.
To this position.
We move forward.
We started giving you guys some rate and non rate.
Direction.
A year or so ago, partly to try to help get to a number.
And we acknowledged at the time that is the rate came in we might unwind some of those non rate actions.
And I think I'm going to go back to what I said, a moment ago all of those crossing items are in our guidance and we're trying to give you the answer rather than ask you to sort of work the components underneath because its own be almost impossible to for you to work the individual components or just trying to give you. The answer at this point and it's probably a little less important to try to break that.
Two apart.
Going forward and we're gonna have more trouble, helping you break them apart because they're going to move in multiple directions.
But still nevertheless, so helpful.
Understand what could be happening so we see it.
I wanted to ask a little bit more about the life operation and the capital optimization.
So a couple of million bucks potentially remove from real life use subsidiary to the parent.
Maybe you could talk about sort of what ends up being the actual capital behind the life operation because I.
And I was looking at the statutory statements and it looks like there's not that much more than a couple of hundred million dollars statutory capital.
In the life subsidiaries at least according to the U S.
Personnel and.
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But I've also presume that there is an amount of life care.
Whats sitting in the Bermuda subsidiary as well so.
Can you talk about sort of where that total life capital ends up in maybe bolt and size as well as.
Where it ends up being distributed.
Yeah happy to kind of walk through I'll call. It good question they.
Big Picture Wise, Yes, there is capital in the Bermuda entity. When you think about it across both youre talking about $280 million that would be sitting there today.
In total one of the things I think you need to look at it is we're resetting or there's a component that is resetting.
Some of our reserves that will release.
<unk> and equity.
That is currently held inside those entity. So it will increase up so you won't see a meaningful change in the actual capital level, that's inside the life companies.
Some of the things that we've done.
It's essentially we had initial filings and placements with the department of Illinois and others.
That go back many years as it relates to our mortality trends when we said that we would come back and update those appropriately.
Once we had really strong mortality tables and experience we have.
Done that coupled with our Bermuda initiative and that is essentially freeing up equity basically from a statutory perspective that will then be able to come up and so you won't see a meaningful change in the overall capital dollars that you'll just see a difference in the reserve level in total is those reserves are reset.
Represent more of a true mortality curve and the benefits that we've had from an experience perspective.
Great that's very clear thank you very much.
Your next question comes from the line of Greg Peters from Raymond James Your line is now open.
Good afternoon, hopefully you can hear me now welcome back.
That's good.
So I wanted to start my question. The first question off with.
Joe in your comments, you talked about the screen and unprecedented time for our personal lines business and you mentioned buying triggers Mb.
Embedded in that is retention I'm just curious.
With all the rate that's being thrown at the consumer and.
And it's just not your company, it's other companies, but particularly when I think about your company being in the specialty business, which has lower limits.
I'm curious how the consumer is responding to this because it.
It feels like you are probably pushing the envelope of what the consumers can afford so just your perspective on that.
Yeah sure, let's let's tag team as I know, Matt has a couple of thoughts and I'll I'll add something in a second.
Okay.
Hey, Greg.
So what we're seeing from a consumer perspective is that persistency or take rates retention rates are are at or or higher than what we would have observed historically.
That is against right. What we would have modeled in normal times. The function of this is less of a demand dynamic and more of a lack of supply dynamics. So as we're seeing competitors in the market slow down appetite, specifically in markets like California, and Florida and now we're starting to see it a rise in Texas, we're seeing that the take rate.
On pretty high average premium dislocations is actually sticking.
You know and we will see as the markets start to get more rate adequate level consumers are moving through sort of elasticity maturing if those persistency rates will hold but for now we're actually seeing that that rate is sticking but when we think about the outlook of our business and how we're managing through that's a highly sensitive variable for us in terms of our predictions.
A part of what we're thinking Greg as we go through this.
Give you. An example, and this is a generalization not a specific item, but you know of a rule of thumb might've been that if somebody gets more than a 10% rate increase they are likely to shop, and that's likely to start to impact your retention or persistency.
In a normal environment.
There's a this is a supply issue Matt is talking about theres generally broad availability.
And Theres some place to go.
In a more restricted environment, where folks are either tightening.
Tightening underwriting care competitors are tightening underwriting are also raising rates they might not have an option. That's more competitive so that 20 or 30 point rate change they might take.
And a very low unemployment environment. Those those folks are needing to have the car to get to work.
They've got incoming cash.
So there that likely has a.
A very important.
The value to them they need they need the insurance they need the car they need to work that.
So so that's triggering and part of what we've been highlighting is sort of a normal model.
Hypothetically, if we took take your number 25 points of rate, we'd expect a certain persistence. He dropped we saw persistence. He go up.
If if that in fact occurs one of the questions that comes out is will that result in a buying decision change a year from now.
Or will people just get used to the new rate and we reset them.
Later, when we talk about test and learn.
From from gradual expansion, what we're actually looking for is trying to measure each of those behavior changes.
Right now in this this strong employment low unemployment environment.
Where we're seeing.
Behaviors that just sort of makes sense to us, but it's different than historical patterns.
Asking ourselves and are aware and that's why we have a wider margin of safety going forward.
To say what might might happen in the future and we're very much focused on increasing our business intelligence, increasing our predictive analytics, increasing are very scientific method of testing and watching to see whether those behavior changes will move going forward does that does that help.
Yes. It does it does provide some colors, it's surprising that retention is going up because your rates are going up.
Hey, I wanted to pivot and sort of.
In connection with those comments and then some of the other things you said in your prepared remarks on slide 13.
I liked that one chart you have where do you do the accumulative PPE.
A rate activity since the second quarter 'twenty one.
And what I was intrigued by this chart is the filed rates.
That pops up to 54, 8% in the second quarter, and then only goes to 56% in the third quarter yet in the third quarter of this year, you've just got this 30%.
Rate approval, that's effective so I would've expected the filed rate to go up even more.
Relative to where it was in the second quarter does that question makes sense to you.
It's it is the the red the filed don't over think that much. Its just the delayed youre expecting that to go up further or Atlantic trade.
Yes, I would expect to 54 eight to go up to 70 or 65 or something with the additional California approval. The 54 eight included the California filed rate it hasn't been approved as filed not approved.
Oh got it.
Okay and so.
When it's approved and you're starting to see the written go up because on August 4th we started writing it.
Got it so in the third.
Quarter, It will become part of the written rate.
And remember.
Tire book won't have it but everything written in the quarter, we will have it.
So that's why it moves up there and we will renew them over there of course, it's our policy term.
Got it Alright, and then Greg to your point, that's the secondary piece, which is following that earned right, which is the twenty-three moving towards that 56 without 54 that were representing.
So that's where it earns across the totality of the book.
Got it it makes sense now.
And then and then on slide six and then discussion of your adverse reserve development.
<unk> talked about some <unk>.
Long dated development patterns in the second half of 'twenty two.
More claims closing with payments.
How do you how do you see those trends in the first half of 'twenty three versus what you saw the second half of 'twenty, two and are we going to be looking at it in another situation six months from now where there's going to be another reset because.
There has been another.
Adverse change in how those patterns are booking.
In your book of business.
So yes, great question, a couple of points on that.
The first point is what we saw at least across our book and its really become.
Much more transparent at this stage is a jump up.
In terms of the ultimate losses that we incurred and between Q2 and Q3, which then has continued forward.
Of last year, if you think about the trajectory we're on we were.
You know for three quarters in a row had been down a point and a half two points little bit more at times kind of averaging that two point trajectory and then now as you would see if you push everything back we actually have an increase that occurred in Q3.
And so that pattern.
Changed and we've effectively incorporated that going forward. So I don't think that it's likely to repeat again, when we look at our Q1 <unk>.
<unk>.
Was actually developed favorable from an entry you're about $6 million that was inside of it so modest.
But based on what we're seeing at this stage.
You know, we feel really good about kind of our well we feel really good about our loss picks.
We had you know obviously a pattern or a trend change that was very unusual from an industry perspective and from what we've seen across our book.
<unk>.
You know dove underneath that we continue to segment that out and that pattern change whether it was an environmental or other is essentially what has led to the development that we've had today, it's unfortunate, but we think we've got it covered and we feel pretty good about the book as a whole.
If I can add a little bit Greg.
And I think Jim was completely clear we saw that pattern change between second and third quarter and the new pattern is incorporated in all our current picks.
I think you had a second I think part of your question was did we included in our current picks and part of it is will there be another pattern change.
Yeah, I'd love to be able to forecast that for you.
What we're what we've tried to highlight is this is a disrupted environment.
Your question on pricing is a great one okay. What if somebody gets a 20 or 30 point price increase and then a year later they get another 20.
At what point do they stop buying insurance or what point does a a.
Our claim pattern change, we're watching all of that and when I say our margin of error is wider.
We intentionally.
Or are looking at that and having our radar up watching.
Watching for it we can't tell you if it's going to happen because by definition a pattern changed has like it's a change, but we're way more sensitive to watching it and way more.
<unk> and what we're doing and way quicker to respond.
On a defensive posture.
Due to those items in this environment and we expect to have that margin of safety in defensiveness for some period of time.
Okay.
I guess the final question sort of comment a house.
Gonna be on your your guidance.
Third quarter, but the ROE guidance for for next year or two.
I guess.
<unk> all the volatility that's going on.
Just question, whether it's worthwhile to put out those Scott the guidance, we understand that's your objective, but it seems that there is risk.
You know that we've observed with other companies are putting numbers out there are missing in the search the near charge considering the volatility.
But when I look at your ROE targets, and then you talk about the preferred business being.
Run off does the ROE targets include or exclude the preferred business and from an accounting perspective is that going to go into a discontinued bucket. So it's going to be just below everything below line in the income statement.
So a couple of points.
The guidance does not include.
The redeployment of capital from a personal insurance or the preferred personal insurance business that will be a positive as it comes through or a tailwind.
It does include what our expected results work.
And where we thought the business would triangulate too so it's in from that perspective, but there'll be an enhancement from a capital deployment element that will be a slight tailwind I would not think about that as a major tailwind.
Much more tailwind over the 234 year period.
The secondary component.
That I would highlight is we expect to report.
Our core businesses going forward.
Then noncore would include.
Things likely.
Prefer personal insurance business.
That election would likely be made through our review in the third quarter.
But our core businesses are.
The Kay business and the life business.
So hopefully that's helpful.
Hello, Greg.
We understand completely your question around the guidance.
And we're trying to do a couple of things. One you put you pointed to slide 13, and you saw the you saw the written and filed rate connecting and Jim made a distinct point of saying looking at the difference between the earned rate in the written rate.
That's that.
Right, we'll earn in its filed its approved it's being written right now.
That's not you know any more than we when we filed something in it hasn't been approved you might argue there was some hope involved in that now it's not hope its processing.
That works its way through so we are recognizing that and we're also highlighting that there's a lot of things going on in the environment. We're very quick to respond. It's a very short tail business, but we're also highlighting that there's things we don't know.
And we're we're confident we're on that right path and we're confident we're going to find those things quicker and we're making very significant and thoughtful test and learn investments to respond quickly, but don't in any way shape or form anticipate that we've got a crystal ball and we'll be able to see those things before they happen.
Where we're not promising we're gonna see them.
But we are promised and we're gonna respond quicker.
Got it and just one final clean up question, because I can't help myself, but litigation was mentioned.
Increased attorney Rep is that just state specific or is that across your entire footprint.
Hey, Greg Great question, it's across the entirety of the footprint we're seeing.
<unk>.
Different behavior, there and some might call it social inflation, others might call. It attorney abuse I'll, let you decide which it is but.
We're definitely seeing more of it I think that's something that's an industry pattern and we're doing what we can to.
Create the best outcomes, we can for our customers.
Thank you for the answers.
As a reminder, if you have a question. Please press star followed by the number one on your Touchtone phone.
There are no further questions at this time I will now hand over the call to Joe Lacher. Please continue.
Thank you operator, and thank you everybody for joining our call today. We appreciate your time and attention and look forward to speaking to you again with our third quarter results.
Yes.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation you may now disconnect.