Q1 2024 GMS Inc Earnings Call
Hello, and welcome to the Gms, Inc. First quarter 2024 earnings conference call. If anyone should require operator assistance. Please press star zero on your telephone keypad.
And answer session will follow the formal presentation you may ask a question at any time by typing star one on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded its now my pleasure to turn the call over to your host Carey Phelps Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead Gary.
Thanks, Kevin Good morning, and thank you for joining us for the Gms earnings Conference call for the first quarter of fiscal 2024, I am joined today by John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Scott Deakin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
In addition to the press release issued this morning, we have posted Powerpoint slides to accompany this call in the investors section of our website at Www Dot G. M S Dot com.
Starting with slide two on todays call managements prepared remarks and answers to your questions may contain forward looking statements as defined in the private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Forward looking statements address matters that are subject to risks and uncertainties many of which are beyond our control and may cause actual results to differ from those discussed today.
As a reminder, forward looking statements represent management's current estimates and expectations. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward looking statement in the future.
Listeners are encouraged to review the more detailed discussions related to these forward looking statements contained in the company's filings with the SEC, including the risk factors section in the company's 10-K and other periodic reports.
Today's presentation also includes a discussion of certain non-GAAP measures.
The definitions and reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures are provided in the press release and the presentation slides.
Please note that references on this call to the first quarter of fiscal 2024 relate to the quarter ended July 31 2023.
Finally, once we begin the question and answer session of the call in the interest of time, we kindly request that you limit yourself to one question and one follow up.
With that I'll turn the call over to John Turner Who's discussion will begin on slide three J D.
Thank you Carrie and thank you all for joining us today.
We are pleased to report another quarter of solid performance for Gms with one $4 billion in net sales up three 7% compared to a year ago net.
Net income was $86 $8 million and adjusted EBITDA was $173 $3 million.
Net income margin was six 2% and adjusted EBITA margin remained strong at 12, 3% for the quarter.
Cash flow was improved year over year, and we improved our net debt leverage to one five times from one eight times in the first quarter of last year.
Continued strength in multifamily construction and resilient growth in commercial activity combined with moderate inflationary pricing in most product categories offset softness in the new single family market as well as deflationary pricing in steel framing.
Continued growth in our complementary business lines as well as expansion and maturation of our Greenfields and recent acquisitions were also positive contributors.
Our scale and mix of customers now roughly equally weighted between commercial and residential along with the expertise and dedication of our team have allowed us to pivot as needed to best serve each of our end markets.
Despite mortgage rates being at 20, plus year highs, we are encouraged by sequentially improving single family starts and permits.
And the associated positive builder sentiment, indicating that the worst of the pullback in single family construction activity appears to be behind us.
While year over year volume declines in this business are expected through the end of the calendar year as compared to the relative strength of the prior year period, we expect that the magnitude of these declines will lessen as we progress through the coming months.
Looking forward the medium to long term outlook for new single family housing remains very compelling with a current fundamental shortage of housing availability and interest rate driven constraints on existing home inventory available for sale.
Meanwhile, with numerous apartment condo mixed use and dormitory projects underway or breaking ground. This fall, we expect multifamily to remain a solid contributor to our results for at least the next several quarters.
With some progressive tempering sequentially as the market works to complete the current backlog.
And while tenant improvement work in the office space is still slow, particularly in large urban centers. We are very pleased with the activity. We have continued to see in other sectors of the commercial construction market.
Notably, we've seen particular strength in the medical sector and recently secured work on at least 10 hospital expansions or new builds.
We also have commitments to deliver product for hospitality projects, such as the new Gaylord resort in San Diego and a convention center and hotel in Fort Lauderdale.
We've secured numerous manufacturing and data center developments and various education projects.
We are even engaged on some office activity, including our commitment to supply the pier in Boston ongoing deliveries for a large scale project to renovate government office towers in Quebec.
And our new office tower in Bellevue, Washington.
This is just a sampling of the types of projects were either actively delivering or expect to start fulfilling in the next several months as our teams work hard to grow our business and execute against our strategic priorities, which I will go through now beginning on slide four.
First our team's relentless commitment to provide outstanding service, regardless of the end market has helped us expand our share in each of our core product categories.
Unlike some distributors as a part of our value added fulfillment model, we don't merely drop our products off the curb instead, we delivered to a point of views whether that's in a single family home or high volume off hours deliveries to the 20th floor of an office building or a multifamily complex.
This capability is increasingly in demand as the availability of skilled tradespeople is constrained.
Our customers know that they can count on Gms to provide best in class service and they depend on us to secure the products, they need when and where they need them.
Moving to our second pillar, which is to grow the sales of our complementary products.
Our teams are committed to enhancing the value we can provide to our customers by leveraging the sales of our core products and customer relationships to satisfy a broader array of our customers needs.
In some cases. This means we are introducing new brands and types of materials redesigning our stores to better highlight all of our offerings or in other cases, we are reallocating or investing in personnel and heightened capability to drive more focused sales.
For example, our subsidiary tool source warehouse or Tfw continues to expand its operations and product mix. After recently, adding a third distribution center in Lenexa, Kansas Tfw is in the process of tripling its Reno, Nevada operation, allowing it to serve a much larger customer base.
With a more complete product offering.
As market conditions, and our customer needs evolve our commitment to service only grow stronger and this expanded service offering is just one example of this commitment and the dedication of our team to enhance the value we provide to our customers.
Our third pillar to expand our platform through accretive acquisitions and Greenfield opportunities serves to grow both the sales of our core products and those that are complementary to our core.
In addition to realizing the benefits of the steady maturation of our investments in Greenfield locations, including our recent ceilings focused location in New York City.
We expanded our presence on Vancouver Island in Canada during the quarter through the acquisition of jaw Lumber Corporation.
<unk> operates under the home lumber and building supplies brand name and is a leading supplier of lumber engineered wood doors framing packages and siding as well as other key complementary building materials that are offered by our Canadian operations we.
We are very pleased to bring home lumber into the Gms family of brands and we intend to continue to focus on expanding our footprint scale and product offerings with an active M&A pipeline.
Our fourth strategic priority relates to our efforts to drive improved productivity and profitability by leveraging our scale and employing technology and best practices to deliver a best in class customer experience, while further driving profit improvement.
We are continually arming our teams with the tools they need to become better operators, such as providing our forklift drivers with automated tablets to increase the efficiency of our picking and loading activities.
<unk> software solutions to provide better analysis of customer and supplier performance.
Utilizing centralized dispatch where most beneficial.
Adding job tracking capabilities deploying.
Deploying internal scorecards to drive maximum productivity and asset utilization.
And broadly, bringing a much more scaled data driven approach to our inventory management purchasing and pricing efforts.
At the corporate level, we are simplifying our subsidiary structure to improve back office efficiencies standardize our product and customer data streamline our processes and drive complexity cost out of the business, while maintaining our focused localized presence and customer connection in regional markets.
<unk>.
Initiatives like these have been integral to our consistently delivering solid low double digit adjusted EBITDA margins in recent years.
Our team did a fantastic job this quarter in an environment that is notably more challenging than a year ago.
We delivered solid results and we are confident that we are well positioned for the quarters ahead with that I will turn the call over to Scott.
Thank you J T and good morning, everyone, starting with slide five I'll now provide some further perspective on our first quarter results.
Net sales increased three 7% year over year to $1 4 billion for the quarter organically.
Organically sales were up 1%.
Adjusting for one additional selling day year over year net sales increased two 1% with.
With daily organic sales declined slightly by less than 1%.
From a U S end market perspective, total residential sales dollars grew three 5% year over year on a per day basis with continued strength in multifamily and resilience in wallboard pricing.
U S commercial sales dollars declined slightly by <unk>, 6% per day has increased volumes of steel and commercial grade wallboard were more than offset primarily by significant steel price deflation.
Now looking at these first quarter results for each of our product segments.
Wallboard sales of 571 4 million increased nine 6% in total and seven 9% on a per day basis.
Comprised of a seven 6% increase in price and mix with an increase in both multifamily and commercial wallboard volume.
Partially offset by the slowdown in the single family residential market, which most heavily impacted this product segment.
Organically first quarter wallboard sales on a per day basis grew seven 6% year over year comprised of an eight 2% increase from price and mix.
And a slight decrease in volume.
Multifamily again led the way in terms of U S. Wallboard volume was 22, 1% growth for the quarter compared to a year ago.
While U S commercial wallboard volumes were up for the fifth consecutive quarter in a row at five 9% year over year.
Single family Wallboard volume in the U S was down 12, 5% as compared to the very strong results, we recorded a year ago.
Despite significant year over year declines in single family construction. This calendar year wallboard pricing has remained resilient.
Collecting the realities facing manufacturers, which are rising and put in production costs. The lack of excess capacity in the market and increasingly pressured access to synthetic gypsum.
For the first quarter, the average realized wallboard price was $475 per thousand square feet down slightly from our fiscal fourth quarter, but up seven 6% as compared with a year ago.
While we are seeing sequential strength in single family volumes, given pressured demand as compared with a year ago, we expect modest sequential declines in wallboard price and mix through at least our fiscal third quarter.
First quarter ceiling sales of $175 $2 million increased four 7% year over year or three 1% on per day basis comprised of a one 5% benefit from price and mix.
One 6% increase in volumes.
Organic sales in ceilings grew 2%.
4% on a per day basis, with a one 5% benefit from price and mix.
We offset by a one 1% decrease in volume.
Tile and grid volumes lagged relative strength in architectural specialties, given the continued softness in the large office sector.
First quarter steel framing sales of $236 $8 million were down 13, 9% versus the prior year quarter or 15, 2% on a per day basis as deflationary pricing drove a 29% decline in price and mix.
Oil volumes increased 13, 8%.
Organically steel framing sales were down 16, 3% on a per day basis with a 29, 2% decline in price and mix, partially offset by a 12, 9% increase in volume.
As J P mentioned in addition to strength in multifamily many of our regional markets are experiencing favorable commercial activity.
With active projects underway or scheduled to start by the end of this calendar year.
This said supply chain constraints in the prior year led to short term dislocation of demand and increases in channel inventory, which unfavorably affected the prior year period.
Prices for steel framing products were down as expected with specific declines of 25, 5% year over year, and one 7% on a sequential basis.
The underlying commodity pricing for cold rolled and galvanized steel has declined over the last several months with signs pointing towards continued near term pricing pressure.
As there is typically at least a four to six month lag from the commodity market to what we see from our value add supply partners. We are currently expecting steel prices to remain challenged with low single digit sequential declines expected for each over the next several quarters.
Complementary product sales of $426 $2 million for the quarter grew seven 7% year over year or 6% on a same day basis as we benefited from positive contributions from acquisitions.
Organically sales of complementary products declined less than 1% on a per day basis.
As a reminder included in this product segment, our Canadian lumber sales, which comprised nine 9% of the category in the quarter.
Compared with 11, 2% a year ago, when commodity lumber prices were higher.
Excluding lumber net sales for complementary products in the first quarter grew nine 4% or seven 7% on a per day basis.
I'll also note that within complementary products because of their high potential for growth and accretive margins. We've indicated that we are especially focused on the growth of our tools and fasteners and.
Stucco and installation product lines.
In aggregate, despite some regional softness versus our expectations for the quarter.
These lines realized higher sales growth in the broader complementary category with first quarter combined sales growth of 13, 5% were 11, 7% on a same day basis.
Now turning to slide six which highlights our profitability for the quarter.
Gross profit of $456 million increased three 6% as compared with the prior year period, principally due to incremental profit from recent acquisitions. Our continued successful pass through of product inflation growth in commercial and multifamily volumes and increase sales of higher margin complementary products.
Gross profit of $456 million increased three 6% as compared with the prior year period, principally due to incremental profit from recent acquisitions. Our continued successful pass through of product inflation growth in commercial and multifamily volumes and increase sales of higher margin complementary products.
Gross margin of 32% was unchanged from a year ago.
<unk> with both our expectations for the quarter and our long term trend.
Selling general and administrative expenses increased during the quarter to $286 8 million.
Compared to the prior year's $267 7 million.
Primarily driven by recently acquired businesses, but also the result of inflationary wages and higher maintenance costs.
Demand pullbacks in single family construction, which resulted in a mix shift into multifamily and commercial end market volumes, which require a higher cost to serve.
Also impacted increased SG&A for the quarter.
SG&A as a percentage of net sales was 23% for the quarter, an increase of 60 basis points from nine 7% a year ago <unk>.
Adjusted SG&A expense as a percentage of net sales was 19, 8% up 60 basis points from 19, 2% in the prior year quarter as the net impact of product price changes, most notably steel price deflation drove 50 basis points of deleverage during the quarter.
Another 10 basis points of deleverage was attributable to recent acquisitions.
Therefore on an organic basis and excluding the net impact of price changes, we were flat year over year as a percentage of sales even with the volume mix shift into higher cost to serve in markets and net inflationary increases in operating costs.
Our right sizing of the business earlier in the year, coupled with efficiencies gained from ongoing productivity initiatives enabled us to achieve these favorable SG&A results in this challenging environment.
Oh, including notably higher interest expenses, and a onetime charge related to the May 2023 refinancing of our term loan.
Partially offset by the realization of a one time tax planning benefit.
Net increase excuse me net income decreased 3% to.
To $86 $8 million for the quarter.
Our $2.09 per diluted share compared to net income of $89 5 million.
Our $2 seven per diluted share a year ago.
Growth in earnings per share for the quarter outpaced net income as a result of the continued execution of our share repurchase program during.
During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 469000 shares for $35 million.
At an average cost of $65 seven per share.
Adjusted EBITDA of $173 $3 million, which was consistent with our previously communicated expectation decreased $1 7 million as compared with a year ago.
Given the single family demand pressure steel framing price declines and the inflationary and activity based operating cost increases in the quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased to 12, 3% compared to last year's first quarter level of 12, 9%.
Now shifting to our balance sheet, which is highlighted on slide seven.
At quarter end, we had cash on hand of $81 $4 million and $816 2 million of available liquidity under our revolving credit facility.
We have no near term debt maturities and our net adjusted EBITDA debt leverage at the end of the quarter was one five times improved from one eight times a year ago.
Cash provided by operating activities for the first quarter, which seasonally represents our highest use of cash.
With $6 6 million.
Compared to cash used by operating activities of $4 4 million in the prior year period.
Free cash flow use for the quarter was $6 9 million improved from a use of $15 $3 million a year ago.
Capital expenditures of $13 5 million for the quarter compared to $10 $9 million a year ago. We.
We continue to expect full year fiscal 2020 for capital expenditures will be approximately $50 million with free cash flow generation of approximately 50% to 60% of adjusted EBITDA.
To wrap up our cap excuse me to wrap up our attractive capital structure, and well positioned balance sheet with no near term maturities.
Provide the foundation and support for the execution of our strategic priorities we expect.
To continue to balance investing in our strategic initiatives, including M&A with paying down debt or otherwise strengthening the balance sheet and opportunistically leveraging favorable market conditions per share repurchases.
Echoing Jay's opening sentiments, thanks to our team for again successfully navigating ever changing market dynamics and delivering these results and continuing to perform for our customers our supply partners and our shareholders I will now turn the call over to Jay for a review of our outlook starting on slide eight.
Thank you Scott.
We are operating in a complex and dynamic market right now with strong fundamental demand for new housing strengthened further by a shortage of existing homes for sale disc.
Despite rising mortgage rates and other supply side factors continuing to exacerbate affordability issues multi.
Multifamily is still very active although we started to anniversary the historic highs in this market.
And while office is still muted other sectors within commercial are providing growth.
With that as our backdrop.
Let me move to our expectations for the second quarter.
First looking at wallboard.
Multifamily growth is expected to temper somewhat but still lead the way with high single digit volume gains expected for our fiscal second quarter.
Commercial wallboard volumes are expected to be up low single digits, while single family wallboard volumes are expected to be down low double digits versus the strong prior year.
Given our assumption that today's high mortgage rates will continue to keep some prospective buyers on the sidelines for the time being.
In total we expect wallboard revenue to be down low single digits for the quarter as compared with the prior year period.
In ceilings, given our successful business development in this product category. Despite continued pressure on the office space, our backlog and project outlook indicate that second quarter ceiling volumes should be up low single digits year over year.
With price and mix offsetting down low single digits.
And for steel framing.
Prices are expected to again declined low to mid single digits sequentially for the second quarter were down about 25% year over year.
Conversely, as compared to the transitory weakness of the prior year volumes for steel framing are expected to be roughly flat sequentially or up high single digits as compared with the second quarter of fiscal 2023.
Finally in complementary products, we expect to see mid single digit sales growth over the prior year quarter.
All in we expect net sales for our fiscal second quarter to be down low single digits. Gross margin is expected to continue to be in line with our long term trend at or around 32% also consistent with our fiscal first quarter.
All considered we expect adjusted EBITDA of approximately $160 million to $165 million.
Gms remained focused on executing our strategy utilizing our scale, our breadth of product offerings and our commitment to deliver outstanding service to bring value to our customers and other stakeholders. We remain confident as we look to the days ahead.
Thank you for joining us today.
Operator, we are ready to open the line for questions.
Thank you well now be conducting a question and answer session. As a reminder, please ask one question and one follow up then return to the queue if you'd like to be placed in the question queue. Please press star one on your telephone keypad you May press star two if you'd like to move your question from the Q1 moment. Please while we poll for questions.
Our first question is coming from Kurt Yinger from D. A Davidson your line is now live.
Great. Thanks, and good morning, everyone.
Hi, Kurt.
I just wanted to start off on the wallboard side I mean, as you kind of look at your fifth straight quarter of commercial volume growth. There. How do you think that compares to kind of the broader industry and any thoughts you have around your performance within that market specifically.
Well I can give you.
We use the gypsum association data to calculate market share and we picked up some share over the course of the last 12 months as well as a little additional share this last calendar second quarter.
Some association works on a calendar year basis. So we know we're picking up some share whether it's specifically in commercial or not I think we probably reflect.
About what's happening in that market.
Quite frankly, I mean were very good there, but we have a couple of competitors who are also very good there. So I wouldn't claim to specifically be gaining any share there.
But.
Again, I think that if we are.
It's a little bit.
Got it Okay. That's helpful and then second just on.
On platform expansion I guess could you talk about your appetite or current approach with.
With Greenfield at this point and second you guys have added a number of facilities. The past two years, how should we think about the ramp up curve for those in and kind of the margin impact as they presumably you start to get more productive and more efficient over time.
Well I mean, usually a ramp up period is about 18 months or so to a year to 18 months to kind of a breakeven and then depending on the geography of the Greenfield and the size of the market right. The impact can be can be very different.
Historically with our Greenfields, we're not entering into large markets. The ceilings with the exception of what we did in New York City, obviously trying to get into something there, where we have been out of that market for a long period of time.
I think youll continue to see greenfields contribute as they have in the past because we'll put another six to eight in which will be a drag and then you'll have eight to 10.
Maturing so I don't see any difference in the way, they're contributing going forward because we will continue to grow the business. We still have opportunity. Therefore, I think we've got 10 to 12 in our pipeline identified now, but probably six to eight we'll execute this this fiscal year.
And on the acquisition front in the first part of your question.
We're busy the pipelines full our corporate development team is actively engaged on a number of fronts valuations.
Sure.
A little higher a couple of quarters ago, but I think they're temporary and becoming a little bit more sort of stabilized versus our expectations. So we're equally busy on the acquisition front.
Got it okay, well I appreciate the color guys and good luck here.
Fiscal Q2.
Alright, Thank you Kurt.
Thank you. Your next question is coming from Noma Cuzco from Stephens. Your line is now live.
Good morning, and thanks for taking my question.
Sure. So first wanted to touch on.
The wallboard pricing continues to remain resilient here and I appreciate the commentary, which I think is is basically reiterated what you said last quarter.
Expect a modest decline sequentially through fiscal <unk>.
But there is at least one of the major wallboard producers that have announced a price increase for early October it doesn't sound like that's factored into guidance, but.
Just wanted to get your thoughts on that or is it still too early.
To really be expecting any traction on a price increase and what would it take do you think for the market to accept that.
If commercial and multifamily remain healthy and we continue to see this.
Uptrend in single family is there an opportunity there do you think.
The degree of single family recovery will will drive what.
It drove the last cut.
A couple of years of price increases and that is that demand will will get up to a level, where particularly in Q2 and Q3 of each calendar year, you are kind of up against capacity.
Producers capacity capability right that that was the primary driver more than anything else of the pricing that we.
We saw over the course last several years there is real inflation, we talked about it theres real inflation in our business real inflation and the manufacturers businesses too. So we certainly don't begrudge the.
The manufacturers are attempting to recover that inflation, whether or not that actually happens in October feels early to me but.
I guess, we'll see in that respect, but also remember it takes US 30 days to 60 days to 90 days, depending on the product.
And market excuse me to get that pricing in and so our guide over the course of the next couple of quarters really takes that into account anyway that.
We probably wouldn't see any actual inflationary pricing, even if that price increase sticks until kind of late in the calendar year.
Got it that makes sense and then just a quick follow up the guidance for fiscal <unk> ceilings pricing down low single digits.
Historically I thought of that segment of having generally strong pricing we saw that in the quarter. So just what's driving the decline in pricing now.
Principally a mix factor reflected in that guidance.
Got it makes sense alright, I appreciate the time and good luck going forward.
Absolutely. Thanks Noah.
The next question is coming from Steven Ramsey from Thompson Research Group. Your line is now live.
Hi, good morning.
I thought the commentary around.
The distribution expansion behind the tool business.
It was interesting.
How do you how much capex that on the on the first question and kind of a quick follow up how do you expect this to help.
Health sales kind of the timing and improved operating effectiveness as those come online and then roll into.
How that improves customer interactions and demand.
Capex is minimal I. Appreciate the question Capex is minimal these are leased facilities or some leasehold improvements for the office portion fit out for some of the equipment that goes into it but it's relatively minimal and reflected in the numbers that we gave you both in terms of the actuals in any additional.
Spending thats in the forecast.
First growth in sales and supporting sales.
It gives us basically.
The full product offering of that business across the balance of the United States. We've been kind of limited on the West Coast. It's also a little bit of the continued integration of Ames into our business, where it will be integrating and Ames distribution center into that location as well so kind of a cost play as well as the ability to grow.
That entire product mix into the west coast.
Okay. Okay helpful and then to make sure I understand on the on the guidance thinking sequentially with sales.
It seems to be implied flattish gross margin flattish and then EBITDA down 10 or so million.
Sequentially can you maybe talk to the SG&A deleverage.
Factors, there that seem to be in play or if there is any other factors to consider thinking sequentially with the guidance.
Mostly pricing.
It's mostly steel and we're rolling into of what period of time, where wallboard prices towards the end of the quarter are going to be differ.
A difficult against the prior year compare.
Even with just a very small degree of decline on a sequential basis with the bulk of the downturn is I don't know what we're talking.
50, 60 $70 million in steel difference in.
In sales.
Okay perfect. Thank you.
Yes.
Thank you next question is coming from Jeffrey Stephens him from loop capital markets. Your line is now live.
Hi, Thanks for taking my questions today.
In ceilings, you reported a volume pickup in June last earnings call and then you're guiding to positive volume growth in the second quarter. Just wanted if you could expand on the primary drivers of modest improvement in ceilings demand then if you've seen anything that gives you confidence that the R&R side could improve as we move through fiscal 'twenty four.
It's basically all of the categories other than office.
It seemed to be okay. So education, good good summer selling season throughout the schools, which again thats part of the mix earlier question asked about.
What was going on with pricing really youre seeing a more commodity mix of ceiling tiles because it's.
Education, that's driving a lot of that in general commercial.
Driving that small stores, etc, storefront strip malls.
There's a little bit of offset to that is the hospital activity that is a little bit richer mix, we talked earlier about 10 hospitals right now.
Yes.
Out there between Remodels and new so that's driving ceilings business for sure a little bit of offset on our architectural specialties as well and so that's.
That continues mix shifted architectural specialties continues into like in the transportation sector in particular airports and transit stations et cetera.
The big drag of course is office still not not much happening.
In an office a lot of discussion.
About it of course, it feels like we've got a lot of discussion about four years now but.
A lot of discussion about what is going to go on with all this turnover and ownership in office.
And what can be done to to utilize that space, but when that starts inevitably there'll be some of that for sure and.
We will benefit from that as will be the ceilings producers.
No. That's helpful. And then I just wanted to if you could talk more about the recent improvement in single family housing starts and what you've been hearing from your builder customers.
Appreciate your comments about single family demand will kind of continue to improve as we move through the back half of the calendar year, but when do you think the recent uptick in starts will.
Meaningful begin to show up in wallboard demand moving forward.
Well, it's about six month lag from start to completion rate. So in a normal supply chain environment and I feel like were most products are in kind of normalized environment right now I know youre still hearing some issues with some electrical switches and things like that causing some constraint.
The land development problems for the builders, but the big builders are going to keep building and continue to attempt to take share from the smaller builders.
Going through this they have strong balance sheets and the ability to do that.
Aye.
All of the data we've seen so far obviously was pre seven plus percent mortgage rates.
So that's the one factor that could temper some of this going forward.
I would say, we're still a little bit cautious.
In our expectations over the course of the next three to six months for starts.
Wed like to see the permits and starts continue on the trend that we've seen for the last three months.
But.
Again, we won't know until that actually happens if we get six good months in a row, then we'll get six full months of some growth.
For sure.
And the higher rates as a countervailing part is keeping the availability of existing home sales for sale in the market depressed as well, which is helping the builders and the starts at the same time.
It's just another environment, that's creating more of a lack of availability of housing win ever.
<unk>.
Professional forecaster in this space would say, we need somewhere between one five and 4 million houses 5 million houses in.
Eventually that's going to have to be built.
And you can't read a single day, you cannot read a single days' worth of financial news, where somebody is not reporting on different state and local governments waking up and realizing that it's a supply problem not a demand problem.
When it comes to housing affordability.
Hopefully that leads to deregulation in the space and certainly youre seeing a lot of momentum around that and then the permitting situation.
As well, we're opening up different swaths of real estate for both single family and multifamily housing just.
<unk> had another great example of that up in the Toronto, GTA, where Canada, recognizing with their big goal around $5 million increase in population through immigration between now and the end of the year, but there simply won't be any housing if they don't open things up and they've recently just changed and opened up a tremendous.
This amount of what was previously green space in their city planning for residential development, and I think youre going to see that happen.
At a pace that's going to accelerate over the course of the next couple of years in the U S. Now it doesn't help us in the next six months, but post that period of time I don't see any reason why housing isn't going to be very strong.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you next question is coming from Mike Dahl from RBC capital markets. Your line is ally.
It's actually Chris Kalata on for Mike Thanks for taking our questions.
Just to follow up on the.
The residential single family residential growth trajectory the declines moderating and then and then multifamily.
<unk> moderating can you just remind us of the mixed dynamics, we should be.
Thinking about in terms of both topline and margin and to the extent you provide any quantification there.
Well, 50% of the volume.
Historically in the market would come from single family and 15% for multifamily 35 from commercial.
So any uptick in single family is worth three times the downturn in multifamily.
From a volume perspective, particularly on wallboard in wallboard I'm only talking about wallboard not the whole business as wallboard then.
There is a mixed dynamic change there.
But that impacts the price primarily it's not so much the actual gross margins.
And gross margin dollars, but there is a little bit of an impact there, but we still think and prefer a really robust single family market to anything else when it comes to wallboard volume.
Got it helpful.
And then I guess, maybe could you just.
Walk us through the latest your latest thoughts on commercial.
Given some of that.
The regional bank stress in commercial real estate stress that we're hearing about.
Your conversations with customers.
Like today.
What does that suggest in terms of the more medium term outlook there.
I mean still bidding good activity in the bid side.
As I walked through in the script a lot of.
I'll call it anecdotal evidence around the numbers of projects and types of projects that are in the pipeline.
I do think that it's inevitable that it has softened somewhat.
Both high rates and the banking risk.
The notable exception to any strength that all remains office down.
Activity down quite a bit all that being said the architectural billings index came out at 50 again flat.
Actually the big driver on the downside being multifamily, which.
Which is not a surprise considering how active that market has been.
And then the put in place.
From the census Bureau, and I think they are out.
Tomorrow.
For for July I think they're out tomorrow. So we don't have them yet for July only through June but again all of this all of the parts of the business outside of office that we that we participate in had been growing nicely from a put in place construction perspective.
So if that trend continues we should be able to continue to do this mid to low single digits.
The growth in commercial.
Got it I appreciate all the color.
Thank you we reached end of our question and answer session and ladies and gentlemen that does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect. Your lines at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you. Thank you. Thank you Sir Thank you everyone.