Q3 2023 Patrick Industries Inc Earnings Call

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Patrick Industries' third quarter 2023 earnings Conference call. My name is Rob I'll be your operator for today's call.

At this time, all participants are in listen only mode.

Question and answer session will follow the formal presentation.

If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference. Please press star zero on your telephone keypad.

Please note this conference is being recorded.

And I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Steve O'hara, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Harris, you may begin.

Good morning, everyone and welcome to our call. This morning, I am joined on the call today by Andy Nemeth, CEO, Jeffrey Dino President and Matt Filer interim CFO certain statements made in today's conference call regarding Patrick industries and its operations may be considered forward looking statements under the securities laws. There are a number of factors many of which are beyond the company's <unk>.

Troll, which could cause the actual results and events to differ materially from those described in the forward looking statements. These factors are identified in our press releases our Form 10-K for the year ended 2022 and in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We undertake no obligation to update these statements to reflect circumstances or events that occur.

After the date the forward looking statements are made I would now like to turn the call over to Andy Nemeth.

Thank you Steve Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us on the call today.

Before discussing the results for the third quarter and first nine months of 2023, I want to take a moment and continue to thank our amazing team members for their dedication and commitment and driving solid organizational performance during incredible dynamic market conditions are.

Our success would not be possible without their hard work attention to detail and commitment to excellence in quality customer service.

Our team continues to be driven by our purpose and passion for the great outdoors any impact our branded quality innovative products and services can have as we strive to elevate the customer experience for our valued partners in the outdoor enthusiast and housing markets.

Over the past few years, our strength resilience and results have reflected the benefits of our strategic diversification and this quarter was no exception.

<unk> the fluid dynamics of our end market landscape in the face of challenging macroeconomic environment, specifically related to the highest interest rates and more than 20 years, our team and flexible business model continued to adapt and perform our balance sheet remains well capitalized with plenty of liquidity and our cash flow as evidenced the underlying strength of our portfolio.

Branded companies that drive our organizational model.

In addition to the benefits of our diversification and strategic model. Our three end market focused businesses have unique advantage is the complement each other in our portfolio.

Our RV focused business units generally have highly leverage would variable cost structure that is also highly scalable up and down in alignment with real time changes to production levels.

Our marine focused business units generally have a higher fixed cost structure that generally delivers a higher engineered core competency value proposition now.

Our housing focused businesses generally offer us a more stable low overhead platform with a low fixed cost structure that is highly leverage able, especially in the event production volumes improve.

Many of our businesses cross pollinate and manufacturing competencies continuous improvement opportunities product lines capacities and markets, allowing us to constantly synergize and continue to bring new innovations to our customers.

The current general theme across our end markets from our perspective can be broadly centered around the overhang of high interest rates and their impact on retail consumer sales conversion dealer inventory stocking and overall increased hurdle rates of return on capital.

Over the last 15 months Oems in the RV industry have skillfully manage their production downward showcasing industry's real time scalability adaptability and maturity as.

As we head into the fourth quarter, we see the industry currently matched in a period, where retail registrations and wholesale production are closely aligned and positioned for a one to one basis and very nimble ready to pivot.

Our teams have done an exceptional job of flexing, our cost model and alignment and executing on numerous automation initiatives to improve our productivity throughput and efficiency and we will continue to support our OEM partners diligence and remain prepared to respond swiftly when we need to ramp up production or scale back further if needed.

On the Marine front as we noted last quarter Marine Oems have responded in real time to inventory restock calibration in the field in partnership with what we believe similar to the RV industry is a cautious dealer base that it appears extremely sensitive to inventory imbalance in the channel and the high carrying cost of floor plan financing.

Retail on the Marine side has held up better than we expected with Oems and dealers alike intent on keeping dealer inventories and their floor plant costs as low as possible in this environment and extremely manageable.

On the housing front, our housing markets, both manufactured and single family multifamily have also been very disciplined in their production and build schedules in markets, where we believe there is and expect we will continue to be a shortage of overall housing inventory.

Beginning in mid fiscal 2022 and carrying through fiscal 2023, we have worked to identify and eliminate costs without compromising the quality and reliability of our operations.

On an annualized basis in 2023, we eliminated an estimated $100 billion in total costs enhancing our ability to maintain margins as we respond to market conditions and industry trends.

Our margins have remained resilient amid slowing marine production and what we now expect to be the lowest RV production in 10 years.

Our team's disciplined execution on labor and cost management. In addition to our investments in automation and continuous improvement helped drive gross margin improvement of 170 basis points, while our operating margin declined just 10 basis points. Despite the 22% reduction in net sales.

Additionally, our adjusted EBITDA margin increased 130 basis points from the third quarter of 2022.

From a working capital perspective, as well we have continued our disciplined inventory management strategy that enabled us to reduce inventory by $37 million in the third quarter of 2023, and $150 million year to date and more than $215 million in the last 12 months further evidenced the nimbleness of our opera.

<unk> model and our team's ability to have definitely and successfully manage working capital.

These measures have not only bolstered our financial stability, but it also paved the way for us to seize opportunities and maximize the profitability of our business when production increases in the future.

The core of our business is built around a brand fronted foundation anchored in the entrepreneurial spirit focused on our innovative full component solutions model with.

We strategically and organically built the product offering that strives to deliver a good better best value proposition with our strategic diversification, representing a further extension to bring the best solutions to our customers.

We offer customers a full line of products, both up and down scale in order to meet their needs a lot of continuum of feature and price.

Our goal is for our customers to be confident that we have what they need to design engineer and build their rv's boats and houses no matter what category of product line they are producing.

With RV Oems looking to reduce their asp's in this environment the importance of our good better best model is clear and evident and it remains the cornerstone of our brand forward go to market strategy.

With this model, we expect to continue to gain share, which will continue to pay dividends when production levels increase.

The strength and resilience of our operating model liquidity and competitive leveraged position has enabled us to be proactive and strategic in a cautious environment and further invest in our foundational model to continue to future proof our business and drive off of our already solid foundation.

As mentioned our brands and the strength of their teams are the foundation of our company driving our innovation, Andy engineering of new products every year, bringing new ideas and solutions to our OEM partners.

As we continue to be forward thinking we plan to further enhance and embed our strategic value proposition.

One example, as we head into the last quarter and upcoming model year is our deep focus on collaboration across business units to create a seamless process to improve product solution innovation through the creation of Patrick's advanced products evolution group.

This independent focused engineering team work closely with our already established innovation team and together will help our brands collaborate shortened product development times and elevate our commitment to excellence as we look ahead to the exciting rollout of model year 2025 units and beyond in our markets.

Before we highlight our third quarter year over year financial performance, let's revisit the 2019 comparison, we've made in the past two quarters that we believe demonstrates the improved resiliency and profitability of Patrick.

In the third quarter of 2023, RV wholesale unit shipments were 21% lower than the same period in 2019.

Despite the sharply lower unit volumes total revenue in the third quarter of 2023 was 53% higher than 2019.

Gross margin was 460 basis points higher in operating margin was 160 basis points higher helping drive a 97% increase in EPS versus the same period in 2019.

In addition, this quarter, we generated $105 million of free cash flow versus $24 million in 2019.

Compared to our results last year, our third quarter revenues decreased 22% to $866 million and on a trailing 12 month basis. Our consolidated revenues were approximately $3 6 billion.

Our net income in the third quarter decreased 33% to approximately $40 million and net income per diluted share was $1 81.

As a reminder, we are comparing to a prior year period, where we hit third quarter records related to revenue and net income.

Our team delivered another impressive cash flow performance this quarter with operating cash flow of $115 million, implying free cash flow in the quarter of $105 million.

We ended the third quarter with total net liquidity of approximately $700 million, which along with our free cash flow reflects our prudent financial management and heightened ability to execute on growth opportunities, while maintaining the flexibility to continue to pivot and whether current and future macroeconomic challenges and opportunities.

I'll now turn the call over to Jeff, who will highlight the quarter and provide more detail on our end markets.

Thanks, Andy and good morning, everyone.

On third quarter, RV revenues, which represents 46% of our consolidated total decreased 24% to $400 million when compared to the same period in 2022.

Our RV content per unit decreased.

2% on a TTM basis to $4957 per unit driven by our actions to pass along favorable pricing to our customers, reflecting certain declining commodity costs and smaller units, taking larger percentage of production mix.

Partially offset by market share gains. Additionally.

Additionally, from our operating perspective Oems returned to a more predictable production schedule in the third quarter, which allowed us to better allocate our resources and plan further ahead for better efficiencies.

Our RV wholesale unit shipments of approximately 73300 units decreased by 20% or more than 18000 units from the third quarter of 2022.

We currently estimate third quarter retail registrations were approximately a 105800 units and estimated decline of approximately 13% compared to the third quarter of 2022.

The metrics, we have outlined imply a net decrease in dealer inventories of approximately 32500 units during the quarter and approximately 78000 units year to date.

Our estimates indicate that the T. T M dealer inventory weeks on hand at the end of the third quarter of 2023 had declined to approximately 12 to 14 weeks from 19% to 21 weeks at the beginning of fiscal 2023, and 16 to 18 weeks at the end of the second quarter of 2023.

This is well below historical levels of approximately 26 to 30 weeks.

From a model year mix perspective, as it relates to the current dealer inventory levels. We believe the ratio of prior model year units that currently sit on dealer lots reflects a more normal relationship compared to what we experienced over the first half of the year.

For context, we estimate just 300000 model year 'twenty three units were built versus an estimated 650000 model year 'twenty two units.

Our marine revenues, which represents 24% of our third quarter 2023, consolidated sales decreased 24% to $205 million on wholesale shipments that are estimated to have declined 23% in the quarter. We.

We believe dealer inventory restocking reached an equilibrium towards the end of the quarter and marine Oems and dealers are acting in a very disciplined manner as they manage the slower part of the selling season with model year inventory mix that appears close to normal.

As noted we estimate marine wholesale unit shipments were down 23% in the quarter to approximately 35 to 40000 units on retail unit shipments that were up 1% to a range of $45 to 50000 units.

We estimate more than 20000 units were taken out of inventory in the second quarter of 2023 and more than 10000 units in the third quarter of 2023.

Our estimated marine content per wholesale unit increased 3% on a TTM basis to $5009 compared to the same period of 2022.

We estimate overall dealer inventories are at approximately 20 to 22 weeks on hand at the end of the third quarter decreasing from an estimated second quarter level of 23% to 25 weeks historical averages weeks on hand, approximated 35 to 40 weeks.

Revenues in our housing market decreased 18% to 261 million and represented 30% of our consolidated sales.

Rob: Good morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome to Patrick Industries' third quarter 2023 earnings conference call My name is Rob, I'll be your operator for today's call If this time all participants are in listen only mode The question and answer session will follow the formal presentation If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference please press star zero on your telephone keypad Please note that this conference is being recorded And oh now turn the call over to Mr. Steve OHara, Vice President of Vest Relations Mr. OHara, you may begin Good morning everyone and welcome to our call this morning I'm joined on the call today by Andy Nemeth, CEO Jeffrey Dino President and Matt Filer and RMCFO Certain statements made in today's conference call regarding Patrick Industries and its operations may be considered forward-looking statements under the securities laws There are a number of factors many of which are beyond the company's control which could cause the actual results and events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements These factors are identified in our press releases, our form 10k for the year ended 2022, and in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission We undertake no obligation to update these statements to reflect circumstances or events that occur after the date the forward-looking statements are made I would now turn the call over to Andy Nemeth Thank you, Steve Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us on the call today Before discussing the results for the third quarter in first nine months of 2023, I want to take a moment and continue to thank our amazing team members for their dedication and commitment in driving solid organizational performance during incredible dynamic market conditions Our success would not be possible without their hard work, attention to detail and commitment to excellence and quality customer service Our team continues to be driven by a purpose and passion for the great outdoors and the impact our branded quality innovative products and services can have as we strive to elevate the customer experience for our valued partners in the outdoor enthusiast and housing markets Over the past few years, our strength, resilience, and results have reflected the benefits of our strategic diversification and this quarter was no exception In spite of the fluid dynamics of our end-market landscape in the face of challenging macroeconomic environment specifically related to the highest interest rates in more than 20 years Our team and flexible business model continue to adapt and perform, our balance sheet remains well capitalized with plenty of liquidity and our cash flows evidence, the underlying strength of our portfolio of branded companies that drive our organizational model In addition to the benefits of our diversification and strategic model, our three end-market focus businesses have unique advantages that complement each other in our portfolio Our RV focus business units generally have highly leveraged world variable cost structure that is also highly scalable up and down in alignment with real-time changes to production levels Our marine focus business units generally have a higher fixed cost structure that generally delivers a higher engineered core competency value proposition And our housing focus businesses generally offer us a more stable, low overhead platform with a low fixed cost structure that is highly leverageable, especially in the event production volumes improve Many of our businesses cross-pollinate in manufacturing competencies, continuous improvement opportunities, product lines, capacities and markets allowing us to constantly synergize and continue to bring new innovations to our customers The current general theme across our end markets from our perspective can be broadly centered around the overhang of high interest rates and their impact on retail consumer sales conversion, dealer inventory stocking, and overall increased hurdle rates for return on capital. Over the last 15 months, OEMs in the RV industry have skillfully managed their production downward, showcasing the industry's real-time scalability, adaptability, and maturity.

The housing side of our business is primarily tied to manufactured housing.

Single multi single and multifamily housing with manufactured housing, making up 56% of the total.

And Mitch estimated wholesale unit shipments were down 22% in the quarter. While total residential housing starts for the third quarter decreased 6% and single family starts increasing 7% and multifamily starts decreasing 28%.

Our estimated MH content per unit increased 8% to $6498 on a TTM basis compared to the same period in 2022 as a result of market share gains. Our team has continued to make consistent CPU gains.

As we collaborate with the Oems as they strive to exceed sustainability and energy efficiency guidelines Manny.

Manufactured homes continue to offer an accessible and cost effective solution compared to the site built homes, particularly in the face of the acute affordable housing shortage, we are experiencing today.

Further we believe our housing businesses have significant long term potential given the structural and supply demand imbalances.

Continue to plug consumer searching for affordable housing alternatives.

As noted the overarching theme of higher interest rates is affecting both dealer floor plans cost and consumer monthly payments across our markets.

We continue to be optimistic about the earning power of our business, especially given our past and present cost reduction initiatives.

And see interest rate stabilization as a potential tailwind.

As we look at the opportunity landscape from new product introductions market share gains and the scalability of our RV business through our highly engineered suite of products in our marine portfolio, which includes both design capabilities.

Our portfolio of aftermarket solutions, we offer to a larger used boat market, we remain confident in our outdoor enthusiast business and their targeted future growth.

We expect to continue to invest in these spaces and believe in the industry's long term health.

Additionally, our teams are constantly modeling future scenarios in our markets, giving us the ability to react quickly to on our plans as markets and the economy dictate.

Moving to our growth objectives, our team remains focused on evaluating evaluating acquisitions in our current pipeline well, adding potential targets for future consideration.

These targets include businesses within our current end markets with similar product offerings.

Those that might be in adjacent markets and those that add new products and services to our portfolio.

While we continue to pursue tuck in acquisitions, we also carefully consider larger acquisitions that align with our long term vision and strategic objectives.

We have a track record of identifying and integrating accretive acquisitions and continue to have a full pipeline of potential targets.

Any acquisitions, we complete we will operate within our brand forward.

Go to market strategy.

Related to capital allocation, we continue to invest in our automation and innovation and efforts as we further refine our operational and production processes and.

An example of these investments is our expanded use of robotics solutions through robots as a service.

Which allows us to structure, our capital spending more efficiently on targeted automation efforts, while mitigating operational risks.

We were impressed with the results from the initial autumn autonomous robotic cell and.

And its capabilities to complete multiple surface treatments on composite parts.

Watch the first standing cell application in 2023 and are now implementing robots as a service sell across multiple business units.

We will continue to expand our scalability and operational efficiencies, including through ongoing efforts to seek out and develop new solutions for a broad range of manufacturing capabilities.

Steve OHara: As we head into the fourth quarter, we see the industry currently matched in a period where retail registrations and wholesale production are closely aligned and positioned for a one-to-one basis and very nimble, ready to pivot. Our teams have done an exceptional job of flexing our cost model in alignment and executing on numerous automation initiatives to improve our productivity, throughput, and efficiency. And we will continue to support our OEM partners' diligence and remain prepared to respond swiftly when we need to ramp up production or scale back further if needed.

Our customer focus brand led go to market strategy extends to customization and collaboration as we work in partnership with our valued customers to build innovative and compelling compelling products and solutions to improve the end customer's experience.

As an example of this is the Harley Davidson audio powered by Rockford Fives Gate partnership.

This partnership between two legendary brands cements Rockford as the leading provider of high performance branded audio for Harley Davidson enthusiasts.

Steve OHara: On the marine front, as we noted last quarter, marine OEMs have responded in real-time to inventory restock calibration in the field. In partnership with what we believe, similar to the RV industry, is a cautious dealer base that appears extremely sensitive to inventory imbalance in the channel and the high-carrying cost of floorplant financing. Retail on the marine side is held up better than we expected, with OEMs and dealers alike intent on keeping dealer inventories and their floorplant costs as low as possible in this environment and extremely manageable.

Our teams do a tremendous job of collaborative innovation and partnership with our customers, while offering high quality customization and full solutions product offering as Andy noted, we are expanding our product and innovation through Patrick's advanced products evolution group a team committed to enhancing the solutions, we can offer to our <unk>.

Valued customers.

I'll now turn call over to Matt who will provide additional comments on our financial performance.

Steve OHara: On the housing front, our housing markets, both manufactured and single-family multifamily, have also been very disciplined in their production and build schedules. In markets where we believe there is, an expected will continue to be a short Israel overall housing inventory.

Thanks, Jeff and good morning, everybody.

Our consolidated third quarter, net sales decreased 22% or $246 million to $866 million driven by a 20% decrease in RV shipments a 23% decrease in marine shipments and a 22% decrease in manufactured housing shipments.

Andy Nemeth: Beginning amid fiscal 2022 and carrying through fiscal 2023, we have worked to identify an eliminate cost without compromising the quality and reliability of our operations. On an annualized basis in 2023, we eliminated an estimated $100 billion in total costs, enhancing our ability to maintain margins as we respond to market conditions and industry trends. Our margins have remained resilient amid slowing marine production and what we now expect to be the lowest RV production in 10 years.

Gross margin increased 170 basis points to 23%, which was the result of our strategic diversification acquisitions cost reduction initiatives investments in automation and continuous improvement and operational efficiencies.

Warehouse and delivery expenses declined $2 million to $38 million in Q3, 2023, increasing 70 basis points as a percentage of sales due to lower revenue and partially due to acquisitions completed this year.

Andy Nemeth: Our team's disciplined execution on labor and cost management, in addition to our investments in automation and continuous improvement, help drive gross margin improvement of 170 basis points, while our operating margin declined just 10 basis points, despite the 22% reduction in that sales. Additionally, our adjusted EVADOM margin increased 130 basis points from the third quarter of 2022. From a working capital perspective as well, we have continued our disciplined inventory management strategy that enabled us to reduce inventory by $37 million in the third quarter of 2023, and $150 million a year to date, and more than $215 million in the last 12 months, further evidencing the nibbleness of our operating model and our team's ability to adapt and successfully manage working capital. These measures have not only bolstered our financial stability, but have also paved the way for us to seize opportunities and maximize the profitability of our business when production increases in the future.

SG&A expense declined $14 million or 17% to $71 million in the third quarter of 2023, SG&A increased 60 basis points as a percentage of sales on lower revenue additional factors included higher insurance software and technology and nonrecurring reorganization.

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Operating income decreased $22 million, our operating margin remained resilient decreasing just 10 basis points to eight 2% driven by the previously described factors.

Net income decreased 33% to $40 million, which equates to $1 81 per diluted share.

Adjusted EBITDA was $113 million versus $131 million last year. However, adjusted EBITDA margin increased 130 basis points to 13, 1% for the third quarter of 2023.

Andy Nemeth: The core of our business is built around a brand-fronted foundation anchored in the entrepreneurial spirit focused on our innovative, full-component solutions model. We strategically and organically built a product offering that strives to deliver a good, better, best value proposition with our strategic diversification representing a further extension to bring the best solutions to our customers. We offer customers a full line of products both up and down scale in order to meet their needs along a continuum of feature and price.

Our overall effective tax rate was 27% for the third quarter compared to 24, 1% in the prior year.

We continue to estimate our overall effective tax rate for 2023 to be approximately 25% to 26%.

Looking at cash flows cash provided by operations for the first nine months of 2023 was approximately $294 million, an increase of $64 million or 28% compared to approximately $230 million in the prior year's period.

Andy Nemeth: Our goal is for our customers to be competent that we have what they need to design, engineer, and build their RVs, boats, and houses no matter what category of product line they are producing. With RV OEMs looking to reduce their ASPs in this environment, the importance of our good, better, best model is clear and evident and remains the cornerstone of our brand-forward go-to-market strategy. With this model, we expect it to continue to gain share, which will continue to pay dividends when production levels increase.

As Andy noted our solid financial results, coupled with our prudent balance sheet management and resulted in strong cash flow.

This quarter capital expenditures were $11 million as Jeff noted, we continue to invest in our operations to drive innovation efficiencies and long term value for our customers and stakeholders.

Andy Nemeth: The strength and resilience of our operating model, liquidity, and competitive leverage position has enabled us to be proactive and strategic in a cautious environment and further invest in our foundational model to continue to future-proof our business and drive off of our already-spotted foundation.

We continue to expect Capex to range from $65 million to $70 million in 2023.

During the quarter, we generated operating cash flow of $115 million, implying free cash flow during the quarter of $105 million.

Andy Nemeth: As mentioned, our brands and the strength of their teams are the foundation of our company driving our innovation and the engineering of new products every year bringing new ideas and solutions to our OEM partners. As we continue to be forward-thinking, we plan to further enhance and embed our strategic value proposition. One example, as we head into the last quarter, an upcoming model year, is our deep focus on collaboration across business units to create a seamless process to improve product-solution innovation through the creation of Patrick's Advanced Products Evolution Group.

For the trailing 12 month period, we generated $412 million of free cash flow compared to $250 million for the same period last year.

We remain committed to our disciplined capital allocation strategy.

At the end of the third quarter after paying down $112 million on our debt, including $110 million on our revolving credit facility. We had approximately $700 million of total net liquidity comprised of $17 million of cash on hand, and unused capacity on our revolving credit facility of six.

Andy Nemeth: This independent, focused engineering team will work closely with our already-established innovation team and together will help our brands collaborate, shorten product development times, and elevate our commitment to excellence as we look ahead to the exciting roll-out of model year 2025 units and beyond in our markets.

<unk> hundred $83 million.

Total net leverage was two five times.

We continue to see the tangible results of our cost balance sheet and financial management with no major debt maturities until 2027, and approximately $700 million of liquidity, we have a solid financial foundation to capitalize on opportunities and successfully navigate current and future market conditions.

Andy Nemeth: Before we highlight our third quarter year-over-year financial performance, let's revisit the 2019 comparison we've made in the past two quarters that we believe demonstrates the improved resiliency and profitability of Patrick. In the third quarter of 2023, RV wholesale unit shipments were 21 percent lower than the same period in 2019. Despite the sharply lower unit volumes, total revenue in the third quarter of 2023 was 53 percent higher than 2019. Gross margin was 460 basis points higher and operating margin was 160 basis points higher, helping drive a 97 percent increase in EPS versus the same period in 2019.

We returned $10 million in the form of dividends during the quarter.

We remain opportunistic on share repurchases and have $84 million left authorized under our current plan at the end of the third quarter.

Moving to our end market outlook, we continue to expect higher interest rates to negatively impact dealers' willingness to hold inventory during the fourth quarter.

As Jeff discussed earlier, RV retail registrations have exceeded wholesale shipments during the quarter and the year to date period, implying a significant reduction in the number of units on dealer lots.

Andy Nemeth: In addition, this quarter we generated $105 million of free cash flow versus 24 million in 2019. Compared to our results last year, our third quarter revenues decreased 22 percent to 866 million, and on a trailer 12 month basis, our consolidated revenues were approximately 3.6 billion. Our net income and the third quarter decreased 33 percent to approximately 40 million, and net income per deluded share was $1.81. As a reminder, we are comparing to a prior year period where we hit third quarter records related to revenue and net income.

This has been the result of continued discipline by Oems and dealers and positions the industry favor favorably for 2024.

Based on recent trends, we currently estimate full year RV retail registrations will be down approximately 15% to 17%, implying retail registrations of approximately 370000 to 380000 units.

Andy Nemeth: Our team delivered another impressive cash flow performance this quarter with operating cash flow of 115 million, implying free cash flow in the quarter of 105 million. We ended the third quarter with total net liquidity of approximately $700 million, which along with our free cash flow reflects our prudent financial management and heightened abilities execute on growth opportunities, while maintaining the flexibility to continue to pivot and weather current and future macroeconomic challenges and opportunities.

Assuming consistent dealer weeks on hand levels as Jeff noted this approximate based on a retail estimates full year 2023, RV wholesale unit shipments of 300000 to 310000 units, implying a decline of approximately 37% to 40% from 2022.

For 2024, we currently estimate wholesale and retail unit shipments at 350000 units.

Jeff: I now turn the call over to Jeff who will highlight the quarter and provide more detail on our end markets. Thanks Andy and good morning everyone. On third quarter RV revenues, which represents 46% of our consolidated total, decreased 24% to 400 million when compared to the same period in 2022. Our RV content per unit decreased 2% on a TTM basis to $4,957 per unit driven by our actions to pass along favorable pricing to our customers, reflecting certain declining commodity costs and smaller units taking larger percentage of production mix, partially offset by market share gains.

In our marine market, we estimate 2023 wholesale shipments will be down 15% to 17%.

We continue to believe dealer inventories are calibrated. However, as noted dealers are acting with an abundance of caution given higher floorplan cost as we head into the winter.

Retail has outperformed our expectations and we currently estimate retail registrations will decline, 5% to 10% for 2023.

For 2024, we currently estimate marine retail and wholesale will be down 15%.

On the housing side of the business, we continue to expect MH wholesale shipments to be down 20% to 25% for 2023 with retail sales absorbing available wholesale production on a real time basis.

Jeff: Additionally, from our operating perspective, OEMs return to a more predictive production schedule in the third quarter, which allowed us to better allocate our resources and plan further ahead for better efficiencies. Our RV wholesale unit shipments of approximately 73,300 units decreased by 20% or more than 18,000 units from the third quarter of 2022. We currently estimate third quarter retail registrations were approximately 105,800 units and estimated decline of approximately 13% compared to the third quarter of 2022.

In our residential housing end market, we expect 2023, new housing starts will be down 10% to 15%.

We currently expect the housing market to be flat in 2024, and that MH will be up 10%.

We estimate our full year 2023 operating margin will be between seven 5% seven 8% and continue to expect to generate operating cash in excess of $400 million. This year as working capital lines with revenues, implying free cash flow of $330 million or more based on our.

Jeff: The metrics we have outlined imply a net decrease in dealer inventories of approximately 32,500 units during the quarter and approximately 78,000 units a year today. Our estimate indicates that the TTM dealer inventory weeks on hand at the end of the third quarter of 2023 had declined to approximately 12 to 14 weeks from 19 to 21 weeks at the beginning of fiscal 2023 and 16 to 18 weeks at the end of the second quarter of 2023.

Capex estimates.

That completes my remarks, we are now ready for questions.

Thank you.

At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session.

If you'd like to ask a question today. Please press star one from your telephone keypad, a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue.

You May press star two if he like to remove your question from the queue.

For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys one.

Jeff: This is well below historical levels of approximately 26 to 30 weeks. From a model year mix perspective as it relates to the current dealer inventory levels, we believe the ratio of prior model year units that currently sit on dealer lives reflects a more normal relationship compared to what we experienced over the first half of the year. For context, we estimate just 300,000 model year 23 units were built versus an estimated 650,000 model year 22 units.

One moment, please while we poll for questions Thats Star one thank you.

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Scott <unk> with Roth M. Kam. Please proceed with your questions.

Mr. Sam perhaps your line is muted sorry about that my question, Yeah, I forgot what the mute button sorry about that.

Could you guys talk about apparently a little bit of a stalemate going on.

Jeff: Our marine revenues, which represents 24% of our third quarter 2023 consolidated sales decreased 24% to 205 million on wholesale shipments that are estimated to have declined 23% in the quarter. We believe dealer inventory restocking reached an equilibrium toward toward the end of the quarter and marine OEMs and dealers are acting in a very disciplined manner as they manage the slower part of the selling season with model year inventory mix that appears close to normal.

With dealers and Oems, whether it's pricing on 24 product or dealers.

Looking for some help on floor plan could you just maybe talk about what Youre here has there been any movement on that front on the order process.

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When would you expect.

To start to break for you a little bit.

Yes, Scott this is Jeff really coming out of open house, we didn't expect a lot of orders immediately from from the open house more of a planning between Oems and dealers, how they wanted to to spread their orders between the fourth quarter and getting into the selling season of the first quarter. So we've continued to see.

Jeff: As noted, we estimate marine wholesale unit shipments were down 23% in the quarter to approximately 35 to 40,000 units on retail unit shipments that were up 1% to a range of 45 to 50,000. Units. We estimate more than 20,000 units were taken out of inventory in the second quarter of 2023 and more than 10,000 units in the third quarter of 2023. Our estimated marine content per wholesale unit increased 3% on a TGM basis to $5,000,000 compared to the same period of 2022.

Production levels pretty consistent through the end of the third quarter into the fourth quarter.

We will see some shutdowns around Thanksgiving and Christmas are pretty pretty traditional from what we've seen in the past and we expect with the dealer inventory levels at the at the level that they are currently that we will see some upsides going into the first quarter based on their need to have.

Our product for the selling season so.

I will tell you that the Oems continue to remain disciplined with their production levels, which I think is.

Jeff: In summary to 25 weeks, historical averages, weeks on hand approximated 35 to 40 weeks. Revenues in our housing market decreased 18% to 261 million and represented 30% of our consolidated sales. The housing side of our business is primarily tied to manufactured housing, single multifamily housing with manufactured housing making up 56% of the total. MH estimated the wholesale unit shipments were down 22% in the quarter while total residential housing starts for the third quarter decreased 6% and single family starts increasing 7% and multifamily starts decreasing 28%.

Managing the inventories out in the field and putting them in a really good position as we move forward.

Got it and then on the aftermarket side of the business, maybe talk about how that performed in the quarter, mainly marine I suppose.

And off road vehicle and just talk about the prospects for.

For next year, particularly as if we are going into some form of recession.

Sure. Scott. This is Andy I think that our aftermarket business was actually down just a little bit which has been consistent with where it's been for a lot of the year that being said the margin profile on that business for us is very strong and so it's performing you know a little bit better than our expectations as it were.

Jeff: Our estimated MH content per unit increased 8% to $6,498 on a TGM basis compared to the same period in 2022 as a result of market share gains. Our team has continued to make consistent CPU gains as we collaborate with OEMs as they strive to exceed sustainability and energy efficiency guidelines. Manufactured homes continue to offer accessible and cost effective solution compared to the site built homes, particularly in the face of the acute affordable housing shortage we are experiencing today.

Related to the margin, which is some of the benefit we've seen on that aftermarket side. So we're optimistic about it I think especially as you look at <unk>.

Trends that we would expect as it relates to discipline.

And where this financing environment is at from a from a purchase of new units. We certainly would expect to see the aftermarket play a more countercyclical Raul as it relates to the.

The average user out there upgrading their unit with aftermarket products.

Jeff: Further we believe our housing businesses have significant long-term potential given the structural and supply demand imbalances that continue to pled consumer searching for affordable housing alternatives. As noted, the overarching theme of higher interest rates is affecting both dealer floor plans costs and consumer monthly payments across our markets. We continue to be optimistic about the earning power of our business, especially giving our past and present cost reduction initiatives and see interest rate stabilization as a potential tailwind.

We're optimistic about it has held up from our perspective, it's been I should say, it's been down a little bit, but but held up from a margin perspective, which we feel really good about.

Alright, just last question a lot of news about one of your top RV customers.

Starting to do or starting to bring some functions in house, becoming more vertically integrated can you talk about how that would affect Patrick and just from a bigger picture. What we can expect from a content impact going forward.

Yes.

Sure I think that you know as we look at our product portfolio out there Scott we've got as we talked about a little bit of a good a good better best product offering.

Jeff: As we look at the opportunity landscape from new product introductions, market share gains and the scalability of our RV business to our highly engineered suite of products in our Marine portfolio, which includes both design capabilities, to our portfolio of aftermarket solutions, we offer to a larger use boat market, we remain confident in our outdoor enthusiast business and their targeted future growth. We expect to continue to invest in these spaces and believe in the industry's long-term health.

We certainly expect to continue to partner with our customers.

Like the innovation that we're seeing out there today just across the spectrum and I think that's the push that we can get really excited about especially with our advanced product evolution group and.

And working with those customers to be able to develop products in partnership side by side with them. So you know we look at we have competition in all of our product categories, and we expect to be competitive in the product categories that we're in so.

Jeff: Additionally, our teams are constantly modeling future scenarios in our markets, giving us the ability to react quickly to on our plans as markets and the economy dictate. Moving to our growth objectives, our team remains focused on evaluating acquisitions in our current pipeline while adding potential targets for future consideration. These targets include businesses within our current end markets with similar product offerings. Williams, those that might be in adjacent markets, and those that add new products and services to our portfolio.

We still feel like we've got great partnerships with the Oems in this space.

Got it that's all I have and I'll jump back into the queue.

Thank you.

The next question is from the line of Daniel Moore with CJS Securities. Please proceed with your questions.

Thank you good morning, Thanks for all the color.

Maybe shift gears towards the margins gross margins you know remarkably strong given the current level of demand.

Do you expect to maintain those those levels as we look to Q4 and into you know maybe H one fiscal 'twenty four.

Jeff: While we continue to pursue tuck-in acquisitions, we also carefully consider larger acquisitions that align with our long-term vision and strategic objectives. We have a track record of identifying and integrating accretive acquisitions and continue to have a full pipeline of potential targets. Any acquisitions we complete will operate within our brand-forward, go-to-market strategy. Related to capital allocation, we continue to invest in our automation and innovation in efforts as we further refine our operational and production processes.

Or are you seeing any pricing pressure worked its way back through the supply chain at this stage.

Yes, Dan this is Andy.

I think as it relates to the margins, we expect a little bit of Choppiness in Q4. It typically is one of the softer softer quarter seasonally for us and we would expect just a little bit of choppiness as it relates to that but that's built into our model I think as we look at one H.

2024, we're still feeling like you know our margin profile is solid the investments that we've made in automation without question are paying off our team has done a fabulous job of managing the Labor Force and we've also size the business as you know according to the revenue stream that we're seeing today. So I think when we look across the spectrum.

Jeff: An example of these investments is our expanded use of robotic solutions through robots as a service, which allows us to structure our capital spending more efficiently on targeted automation efforts while mitigating operational risk. We were impressed with the results from the initial autonomous robotic cell and its capabilities to complete multiple surface treatments on composite parts. We launched the first standing cell application in 2023, and are now implementing robots as a service cell across multiple business units.

And all of our businesses and we look at where the industries are at we feel like we've modeled the business too that that platform and can flex up or down if we need to but the leverage ability going up for us will be solid, but I think as we look at our gross margins.

Jeff: We will continue to expand our scalability and operational efficiencies, including through ongoing efforts to seek out and develop new solutions for our broad range of manufacturing capabilities. Our customer-focused brand-led go-to-market strategy extends to customization and collaboration as we work in partnership with our valued customers to build innovative and compelling products and solutions to improve the end customer's experience. As an example of this is the Harley-Davidson audio powered by Rockford Fosgate partnership.

A lot of the investments and the team's just done an absolutely fantastic job of managing the business taking out cost relying on the automation.

To generate throughput and efficiency and then continuous improvement initiatives that we've implemented across the spectrum continue to help drive that so we're going to stay focused on that and the goal would be to continue to again drive efficiencies and throughput.

And then really be able to leverage when we see when we see the markets pick up.

Excellent and then obviously you know great color on your outlook for each of the verticals.

Jeff: This partnership between two legendary brands cements Rockford as a leading provider of high-performance branded audio for Harley-Davidson enthusiasts. Our teams do a tremendous job of collaborative innovation and partnership with our customers while offering high-quality customization and full solutions product offering. As Andy noted, we are expanding our product innovation through Patrick's Advanced Products Evolution Group, a team committed to enhancing the solutions we can offer to our valued customers.

We look into next year in terms of just cadence.

Do you expect much of a difference if any in terms of shipments H one to H two.

How do you see things kind of slow starting out a little slower and then picking up in in either of the three main businesses.

Relatively consistent across the year.

I think what we expect is a more normal seasonality than we've seen in the past as it relates to production.

Matt Filer: On the outline call over to Matt who will provide additional comments on our financial performance.

Production.

In retail and I think when you know you kind of look at where.

Matt Filer: Thanks Jeff and good morning everybody. Our consolidated third quarter net sales decreased 22% for $246 million to $866 million. Driven by a 20% decrease in RV shipments, a 23% decrease in marine shipments, and a 22% decrease in manufactured housing shipments. Gross margin increased 170 basis points to 23% which was the result of our strategic diversification, acquisitions, cost reduction initiatives, investments in automation and continuous improvement and operational efficiencies. Warehouse and delivery expenses declined $2 million to $38 million in Q3 2023, increasing 70 basis points as a percentage of sales due to lower revenue and partially due to acquisitions completed this year, here.

Inventories at today.

Low low level of weeks on hand dealers being very very thoughtful about the inventories that theyre carrying the oes matched up to be able to produce we would expect a more seasonal cadence.

But again like I said I think we are balanced with with what we see today as it relates to production levels and sized appropriately.

So as we look at it what I would tell you is we're watching retail certainly.

But with the balance in the calibration that we see in the field today between manufacturing production and retail we feel really good about the ability to flex across the spectrum.

Excellent last one and I'll jump out.

Free cash flow has been exceptional E is there any more working capital left to unwind there should we expect it to be more neutral going forward at least until demand starts to recover. Thank you.

Matt Filer: S-GNA expense declined $14 million or 17% to $71 million in the third quarter of 2023. S-GNA increased 50 basis points as a percentage of sales on lower revenue. Additional factors included higher insurance, software and technology, and non-recurring reorganization expenses. Operating just 10 basis points to 8.2% driven by the previously described factors. Net income decreased 33% to 40 million, which equates to $1.81 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA was $113 million versus $131 million last year.

Yeah, I think that from a working capital perspective, our team again has done an absolutely fantastic job of managing inventories in partnership with our customers and.

I don't know that there's a ton of working capital to wring out we do expect to be now have over $400 million of operating cash at the end of this year.

Which is really in line with where our expectations were at in fact, I think as we look out into the future one of the things that we're in a really advantaged position it as it relates to the strength of our balance sheet and our liquidity is we're looking and saying okay. Yes, yes. The manufacturing does go up we want to make sure that we're positioned and we can be positioned.

With the appropriate level levels of inventory when it does flex up so we're talking to our OEM partners today about production and where their expectations are to make sure that we're positioned to be able to flex up if we need to add some working capital so.

Matt Filer: However, adjusted EBITDA margin increased 130 basis points to 13.1% for the third quarter of 2023. Our overall effective tax rate was 27% for the third quarter compared to 24.1% in the prior year. We continue to estimate our overall effective tax rate for 2023 to be approximately 25% to 26%. Looking at cash flows, cash provided by operations for the first nine months of 2023 was approximately $294 million. An increase of 64 million or 28% compared to approximately $230 million in the prior year's period.

I think across the platform our team has done a fabulous job of managing working capital.

Okay.

Thank you.

Our next question is from the line of Mike Swartz with true of Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, good morning, guys.

Maybe just to start on the commentary around your outlook for the marine market for 2024, I think if I heard you right. You said you expect retail to be down 15% I think that's one of the more bearish views I've I've heard and I think that would put us right on the cusp of kind of a you know the depth of great risk.

Matt Filer: As Andy noted, our solid financial results coupled with our prudent balance sheet management have resulted in strong cash flow. This quarter capital expenditures were $11 million. As Jeff noted, we continue to invest in our operations to drive innovation, efficiencies, and long-term value for our customers and stakeholders. We continue to expect CAPEX to range from $65 million to $70 million in 2023. During the quarter, we generated operating cash flow of $115 million, implying free cash flow during the quarter of $105 million.

Session demand levels. So maybe just a little color on maybe how you're how you're thinking about the year in marine and maybe how you got to that number.

Sure. Mike This is Andy I think as we look out right now we feel again that production in retail are very well aligned to kind of one for one and we were being cautious as we noted marine retail has been stronger than we expected. So I would tell you that we're being cautious in modeling our business around that number.

And we certainly think that there's some upside potential as you look as you look at the numbers that are there, but we want to make sure that we're thoughtful as I talked our business is balanced as it relates to the revenue.

Matt Filer: For the trailing 12-month period, we generated $412 million of free cash flow compared to $250 million for the same period last year. We remain committed to our discipline capital allocation strategy. At the end of the third quarter, after paying down $112 million on our debt, including $110 million on our revolving credit facility, we had approximately $700 million of total net liquidity comprised of $17 million of cash on hand and unused capacity on a revolving credit facility of $683 million.

Revenue stream matched against our cost structure and so as we look at marine right now.

Duction levels that we're seeing tremendous discipline is what I would say in the space. So we're not concerned about over inventory.

Or or the ability to produce we're just staying cautious as it relates to what the what it can look like in this environment and Thats. How we are building our model with upside potential to flex very easily in the event that shipments are better than that so we've got a cautious outlook, but the caution is just simply around where we're centered today and the ability to <unk>.

Matt Filer: Total net leverage was 2.5 times. We continue to see the tangible results of our cost, balance sheet, and financial management with no major debt maturities until 2027 and approximately $700 million of liquidity. We have a solid financial foundation to capitalize on opportunities and successfully navigate current and future market conditions. We returned $10 million in the form of dividends during the quarter. We remain opportunistic on share repurchases and have $84 million left authorized under our current plan at the end of the third quarter.

Flex up very quickly if we need to.

Okay. Okay, that's perfect and then just on.

We've all heard the stories of where model year 'twenty for pricing has gone in in RV in some instances down double digits.

In totals.

A lot of talk about the content to hit some of those price points, maybe give us just a back drop of what youre seeing in I guess, how much risk do you think that the content.

Dynamic presents to Patrick in terms of your content loads going going forward.

Matt Filer: Moving to our end market outlook, we continue to expect higher interest rates to negatively impact dealer's willingness to hold inventory during the fourth quarter. As Jeff discussed earlier, RV retail registrations have exceeded wholesale shipments during the quarter and the year-to-date period, implying a significant reduction in the number of units on dealer lots. This has been the result of continued discipline by OEMs and dealers and positions to industry favorably for 2024. Based on recent trends, we currently estimate full year RV retail registrations will be down approximately 15% to 17%, implying retail registrations of approximately 370,000 to 380,000 units.

Yes, Mike this is Jeff.

I think what we've really seen.

Matt Filer: Assuming consistent dealer weeks on hand levels, as Jeff noted, this approximates based on our retail estimates full year 2023 RV wholesale unit shipments of 300,000 to 310,000 units, implying a decline of approximately 37 to 40% from 2022. For 2024, we currently estimate wholesale and retail unit shipments at 350,000 units. In our marine market, we estimate 2023 wholesale shipments will be down 15 to 17%. We continue to believe dealer inventories are calibrated.

After the model change was not necessarily a lot of <unk>.

But.

The offering or bringing in smaller floor plans.

Introductory floor plans and trying to hit that lower end of the market, we've seen a little bit more of that in the production levels over the last couple of months really kind of the end of the third quarter and into the into the fourth quarter. So to that since it's not necessarily the content as much as not as much content in some of the units that are being built on the on the smaller smaller.

Range up from our Patrick perspective.

I believe we're in pretty good shape with our content per unit, primarily because of the the.

The business, we picked up in the market share we've been able to gain over the last 12 months.

It's been pretty incredible what our team has done they've gone out and really.

It really pushed hard in that in that area and we've seen significant growth in the range of about $150 million over the last 12 months. So I think that's going to really offset anything that is in the lower end units, but on our normal standard.

Units, we haven't seen a ton of content and so we.

We feel pretty good about where we stand today.

Clarification that $150 million is something that you anticipate going forward or is that something that's already been realized.

Matt Filer: However, as noted, dealers are acting with an abundance of caution given higher floor plant costs as we head into the winter. Retail has outperformed our expectations and we currently estimate retail registrations will decline 5 to 10% for 2023. For 2024, we currently estimate marine retail and wholesale will be down 15%. On the housing side of the business, we continue to expect MH wholesale shipments to be down 20 to 25% for 2023, with retail sales absorbing available wholesale production on a real time basis.

Annualized.

Okay. Okay, perfect and then just one more for me if you. If you will just the typical breakout between M&A.

Share price.

And I think you said industry volume was off 22, so that's easy.

Yes.

Hey, Mike This is Matt Pilar.

So the 22% revenue decrease that we saw in the quarter.

As you mentioned industries down across our end markets about 21% our net organic impact is down 3% and then acquisitions had a positive 2% impact.

Matt Filer: In our residential housing and market, we expect 2023 new housing starts will be down 10 to 15%. We currently expect the housing market to be flat in 2024 and that MH will be up 10%. We estimate our full year 2023 operating margin will be between 7.5% and 7.8%. And continue to expect to generate operating cash and excess of $400 million this year as working capital lines with revenues, implying free cash flow of $330 million or more based on our CAPEX estimates.

And if you break down that organic.

Impact pricing is down 5%.

In pure organic growth is up 2%.

Awesome. Thank you so much.

Thank you.

Our next question is from the line of Noah as Atkins with Keybanc capital markets. Please proceed with your questions.

Hi, Thanks for taking my question.

One of my questions have been asked and answered, but just hoping you could provide some color on how youre thinking about M&A in the current environment and valuations.

Matt Filer: That completes my remarks.

Operator: We are now ready for questions. Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. If you like to ask a question today, please press star one from your telephone keypad and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you like to remove your question from the queue. For participants that are using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please, we'll be pulled for questions and that's star one. Thank you.

No. This is Andy yes.

I think again as we talked about from a liquidity perspective, and a leverage perspective, we feel really good about our positioning right now to be able to actively look at and evaluate acquisitions. Our pipeline continues to be fall both organically and we are getting getting deal flow deal flow has actually slowed down from from external.

Participants, but the deals that were <unk>, which we are constantly doing on the organic side continue to be there and as we look at valuations I would tell you that valuations are stable from our perspective, I think as we look at modeling where everybody where the disconnect today is that on a normalized run rate basis with.

Scott Spender: Our first question comes from the line of Scott Spender with Roth MKM. Please receive your question.

<unk> expectations is really kind of just the gap that's there today, but as we look at our model and we look at where we're at and the businesses that are attractive to us.

Jeff: I'm sorry about that. Yeah, I forgot what the mute button was. Could you guys talk about, you know, apparently a little bit of a stalemate going on with dealers and OEMs, whether it's pricing on 24 product or dealers looking for some help on floor plan. And could you just maybe talk about what you're hearing? Has there been any movement on that front on the order process and, you know, when would you expect, you know, that to start to break through a little bit.

We feel like we're in a really good position to be offensive, if we want to hear with the liquidity position that we've got and as well the leverage position. So we're going to take advantage of opportunities.

Pop up but we are also actively cultivating.

Acquisition targets as well.

Thank you.

Yeah.

Our next question is from the line of Craig Kennison with Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Jeff: Yes, got this Jeff, you know, really coming out of open house, we didn't expect a lot of, you know, orders immediately from from the open house. More of a planning between OEMs and dealers, how they wanted to spread their orders between the fourth quarter and getting into the selling season of the first quarter. So we've continued to see, you know, production levels pretty consistent through the end of the third quarter into the fourth quarter.

Yeah. Good morning, Thanks for taking my question.

Many have been addressed already but I wanted to circle back on content per unit came in a little above where we had anticipated, but I know it is an LTM metric and I'm wondering.

As you look into 2020 for whats the whats a reasonable expectation for content per unit in.

RV and marine specifically.

Jeff: We will see some shutdowns, you know, around Thanksgiving and Christmas, pretty, pretty traditional from what we've seen in the past. And we expect with the dealer, you know, inventory levels at the level that they are currently that will see some upside, you know, going into the first quarter based on their need to have product for the selling season. So, you know, I will tell you that, you know, the OEMs continue to remain disciplined with their production levels, which I think is, you know, managing the inventories out in the field and putting them in a really good position as we move forward.

Yes, Craig this is Jeff we feel like into the fourth quarter and into the first part of next year. Our content per unit is going to remain relatively flat from where we are there will be some pricing movement in a few areas maybe down in sum up but.

Scott Spender: Got it.

Certainly some of the increased market share we've been able to gain is going to offset anything that we see in the pricing.

And that flat is the comment relative to your Q3 experience.

That's correct.

Okay, great. Thanks, and then again looking at 2020 for I know, it's early but just what are some of the puts and takes as you consider the margin profile of your business and if you can comment on whether labor rates are at all impacted by some of the.

Andy: And then on the aftermarket side of the business, maybe talk about how that formed in the quarter, mainly Marina, I suppose, and an off road vehicle and, you know, just talk about, you know, the prospects for next year, particularly if we are going into some form of recession. Scott, this is Andy. I think that our aftermarket business was actually down just a little bit, which has been consistent with where it's been for a lot of the year.

W contract or any other pressures that are.

Facing.

That environment.

Yes, Craig I think as we look out into 'twenty four again, we feel good about our cost structure today with where we're at we actively partner with our customers from a pricing perspective, as commodities move up and down and worked very well with them in partnership from my perspective.

Andy: That being said, the margin profile on that business for us is very strong. And so it's performing, you know, a little bit better than our expectations as it relates to the margin, which is some of the benefit we've seen on that aftermarket side. So, you know, we're optimistic about it. I think especially as you look at trends that we would expect as it relates to discipline. And where this financing environment is at from a purchase of new units, you know, we certainly would expect to see the aftermarket play a more countercyclical role as it relates to, you know, the average user out there upgrading their unit with aftermarket products. So, you know, we're optimistic about it. Telled up from our perspective. It's been, I should say it's been down a little bit, but, but held up from a margin perspective, which we feel really good about.

So as we look at those that component the labor side of the business is very stable for us we've got a great core group of labor.

Talent out there that is doing a fabulous job that is flexible and nimble. So we feel good about that I think as we just look at the model today.

And where we're where we're stabilized and looking out in the future and positioned you know.

I think we look and say okay. We're in a good spot we can flex up very quickly and leverage off of that and if we need to take some more cost out we certainly can do that and we'll do that very prudently. So overall as we look at the cost structure and the puts and takes I feel like we can continue to be very flexible and nimble with our business model and our team is just is just.

Jeff: I just last question a lot of news about one of your top RV customers starting to do or starting to bring some functions in house, becoming more vertically integrated. Can you talk about how that would affect Patrick and just from a bigger picture, what we can expect from a content impact going forward? Sure, I think that, you know, as we look at our product portfolio out there, Scott, you know, we've got, as we talked about, a little bit of a good, good, better, best product offering.

Really good at that and so been so impressed with what they've been able to do.

And the way that they proactively manage the business has been been Super invigorating from our perspective. So we feel like we can be flexible and nimble and flex you know with wherever volumes are at as we look at going forward. Obviously, there is macroeconomic concerns out there, but we are positioned very well to continue to flex.

Jeff: We certainly expect to continue to partner with our customers. You know, I like the innovation that we're seeing out there today, just across the spectrum. And I think that's the push that we can get really excited about, especially with our advanced product evolution group, you know, and working with those customers to be able to develop products in partnership side by side with them. So, you know, we look at, we have competition in all of our product categories, and we expect to be competitive in the product categories that we're in. So, you know, we still feel like we've got great partnerships with the OEM, in the space.

Great. Thank you.

Scott Spender: Got it.

Thank you.

Scott Spender: That's all I have for now. I'll jump back into the queue.

That's a question you May press Star one.

The next question is from the line of Griffin, Brian with D. A Davidson. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, Thanks, just one for me.

Operator: Thank you.

The alarm.

<unk>.

Marine and RV.

Returning students.

Warren.

The new run rate.

Over the medium to long term.

Driven we're planning our business around the current weeks on hand levels, which we believe are.

Obviously very low given the interest rate environment and we certainly appreciate.

Daniel Moore: The next question is from the line of Daniel Moore with CGS Securities. Please just see what's your question. Thank you.

And the prudence that both Oems and dealers are using today to minimize floor plan financing cost. So from our perspective, we're at up at a low level of weeks on hand, lower than we would have anticipated, but it's been calibrated from our perspective, and so I think our modeling is centered around consistent weeks on hand, we're not we're not planning anything.

Andy: Good morning. Thanks for all the color. Maybe shift gears toward the margins, gross margins, remarkably strong given current level of demand. You expect to maintain those levels as we look to Q4 and into maybe H1 fiscal 24, or you're seeing any pricing pressure work that's way back to the supply chain at this stage. Yeah, Dan, this is Andy. I think as it relates to the margins, we expect a little bit of choppiness in Q4.

If it does go up then we would expect some restocking and we will certainly participate in flex with that but right now we're building our model off of consistent weeks on hand.

Andy: It typically is one of the software quarters seasonally for us, and we would expect just a little bit of choppiness as it relates to that, but that's built into our model. I think as we look at 1H, you know, 2024, we're still feeling like, you know, our margin profile is valid. The investments that we've made in automation without questioning or paying off are teams done a fabulous job of managing the labor force.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, I will turn it over to Andy for closing remarks.

I want to end the call by once again expressing my sincere gratitude to our talented team members who are the reason for our success they're.

Their dedication and commitment are instrumental to Patrick continuing to be customer focused supplier that empowers enthusiasts on the road on the water and at home.

Andy: And we've also sized the businesses, you know, according to the revenue stream that we're seeing today. So I think when we look across the spectrum in all of our businesses and we look at where the industries are at, we feel like we've modeled the business to that platform and can flex up or down, you know, if we need to, but the leverageability going up for us, you know, will be solid. But I think as we look at our gross margins, you know, a lot of the investments, the team's just done an absolutely fantastic job of managing the business, taking out costs, relying on the automation to generate throughput and efficiency, and then continuous improvement initiatives that we've implemented across the spectrum continue to help drive those.

We find inspiration and the resilience displayed by our team despite the wide range of market and industry changes we've seen in the past few years.

This resilience gives us the confidence that we can navigate any challenges that come our way and we will continue to utilize our operational and financial levers appropriately to drive sustainable growth and deliver long term value to our shareholders. We thank everyone, who has joined us on the call today.

Thank you ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect your lines.

Andy: So we're going to stay focused on that, and the goal would be to continue to, you know, again, drive efficiencies and throughput, you know, and then really be able to leverage when we see the markets pick up.

Andy: Excellent. And obviously, you know, appreciate great color on your outlooks for each of the verticals as we look into next year. In terms of just cadence, you expect much of a difference if any, in terms of shipments, H1 to H2, you know, do you see things kind of slow, starting out a little slower, and then picking up in either of the three, you know, main businesses, or relatively consistent across the year.

Andy: I think what we expect is a more normal seasonality than we've seen in the past as it relates to, you know, production and retail, and I think when, you know, you kind of look at where inventories at today, low, low level of weeks on hand dealers being very, very thoughtful about the inventories that they're carrying. The OEs matched up, you know, to be able to produce, you know, we would expect a more seasonal cadence, but again, like I said, I think we're balanced with what we see today as it relates to production levels and size appropriately.

Andy: So as we look at it, you know, what I would tell you is we're watching retail certainly, but with the balance and the calibration that we see in the field today, between manufacturing, production, and retail, we feel really good about the ability to flex across the spectrum.

Andy: Drum.

Andy: Excellent, last one I'll jump out is, you know, free cash flow has been exceptional. Is there any more working capital left unwind? There should be expected to be more neutral going forward, at least until demand starts to recover. Thank you. Yeah, I think that from a working capital perspective, our team again has done an absolutely fantastic job of managing inventories and partnership with our customers. And you know, I don't know that there's a ton of work working capital to ring out.

Andy: We do expect to be, you know, have over $400 million of operating cash at the end of this year, which is really in line with where our expectations were at. In fact, I think as we look out into the future, you know, one of the things that we're in a really advantageous position as it relates to the strength of our balance sheet in our liquidity is we're looking and saying, okay, if, if the manufacturing does go up, we want to make sure that we're positioned and we can be positioned with the appropriate levels levels of inventory.

Andy: When it does flex up, so we're talking to our OEM partners today about production and where their expectations are to make sure that we're positioned to be able to flex up if we need to add some working capital. So again, I think across the platform, our team has done a fabulous job of managing working capital. Thank you.

Mike Swartz: Our next question is from the line of Mike Swartz with true of securities. Please receive your questions.

Andy: Hey, good morning, guys. Maybe just a start on the commentary around your outlook for the marine market for 2024. I think if I heard you right, you said you expect retail to be down 15%. I think that's one of the more bearish views I've heard. And I think that would put us right on the cusp of kind of, you know, the depth of great recession, demand level. So maybe just a little color on maybe how you're how you're thinking about the year in marine and maybe, you know, how you got to that number.

Andy: Sure, Mike. This is Andy. I think as we look out, you know, right now we feel again that that production and retail are very well aligned to kind of one for one. And we were being cautious as we noted, marine retail has been stronger than we expected. So I would tell you that we're being cautious in modeling our business around that number. And we certainly think that there's some upside potential as you look as you look at the numbers that are there, but we want to make sure that we're thoughtful as I talked our business is balanced as it relates to the revenue revenue stream matched against our cost structure.

Andy: And so as we look at marine right now, you know, it's production levels that we're seeing tremendous discipline is what I would say in the space. So we're not concerned about over inventory or the ability to produce. We're just saying cautious as it relates to, you know, what they what it can look like in this environment. And that's how we are building our model with upside potential the flex very easily in the event that the shipments are better than that. So we've got to cautious outlook, but the caution is just simply around where we're centered today and the ability to flex up very quickly if we need to. Okay.

Jeff: That's perfect. And then just on, you know, with with we've all heard the stories of where, you know, model your 24 pricing has gone and in RV and some instances down double digits in in towables. You know, there's there's a lot of talk about decontaining to hit some of those price points, maybe give us just a back drop of what you're seeing. And I guess how much risk do you think the decontaining dynamic presents to Patrick in terms of your content loads going going forward?

Jeff: Yeah, Mike, this is Jeff. I think what we've really seen after the model change was not necessarily a lot of decontaining, but the offering or bringing in smaller floor plans, introductory floor plans and trying to hit that lower end of the market. We've seen a little bit more of that in the production levels over the last couple of months, really kind of the end of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter.

Jeff: So, to that sense, it's not necessarily decontaining as much as not as much content in some of the units that are being built on the smaller range. From a Patrick perspective, I believe we're in pretty good shape with our content per unit, primarily because of the business we picked up in the market share. We've been able to gain over the last 12 months. It's been pretty incredible what our teams done. They've gone out really pushed hard in that area and we've seen significant growth in the range of about 150 million over the last 12 months.

Jeff: So, I think that's going to really offset anything that is in the lower end units, but in our normal standard units, we haven't seen a ton of decontaining. So, we feel pretty good about where we stand today. And clarification, that 150 million is something that you anticipate going forward, or that's something that's already been realized. Annualized.

Matt Filer: Okay, perfect. And then just one more for me, if you will, just the typical breakout between M&A, you know, share, price. And I think you said industry volume was off 22, so that's easy. Hey, Mike, this is Matt Piler. So, the 22% revenue decrease that we saw in the quarter. As you mentioned, industries down across our end markets about 21% are net organic impact is down 3% and then acquisitions had a positive 2% impact. And if you break down that organic impact, pricing is down 5% and pure organic growth is up 2%.

Mike Swartz: Awesome.

Mike Swartz: Thank you so much.

Noah Zatzkin: Thank you. Next questions from the line of Noah Zacken with Keybank Capital Markets. Please receive your questions.

Noah Zatzkin: Hi, thanks for taking my question. Most of my questions have been asked and answered, but just hoping you could provide some color on how you're thinking about M&A in the current environment and valuations. Thanks. No, this is the NES. I think again, as we talked about from a liquidity perspective and a leverage perspective, we feel really good about our positioning right now to be able to actively look at and evaluate acquisitions.

Noah Zatzkin: Our pipeline continues to be full both organically and we are getting getting deal flow. Deal flow is actually slowed down from external participants, but the deals that we're cultivating, which we are constantly doing on the organic side. We continue to be there. And as we look at valuations, I would tell you that valuations are stable from our perspective. I think as we look at modeling where everybody where the disconnect today is at on a normalized run rate basis with valuation expectations is really kind of just the gap that's there today.

Noah Zatzkin: But as we look at our model and we look at where we're at and the businesses that are attractive to us, we feel like we're in a really good position to be offensive. If we want to hear with the liquidity position that we've gotten as well, the leverage position. So we're going to take advantage of opportunities that pop up, but we are also actively cultivating acquisition targets as well. Thank you.

Craig: Thanks for taking my question. Many have been addressed already, but I wanted to circle back on content per unit, came in a little above where we had anticipated, but I know it's an LTM metric, and I'm wondering, you know, as you look into 2024, you know, what's the reasonable expectation for content per unit in RV and marine specifically? Craig, this is Jeff, we feel like in through the fourth quarter and into the first part of the next year, our content per unit is going to remain relatively flat from where we are.

Craig: You know, there will be some pricing movement in a few areas, maybe down and some up, but you know, certainly some of the increased market share, we've been able to gain is going to offset anything that we see in the pricing. And that's flat as a comment relative to your Q3 experience? It's correct.

Craig: Okay, great, thanks. And then again, looking at 2024, I know it's early, but just what are some of the puts and takes as you consider, you know, the margin profile of your business, and if you can comment on whether labor rates are at all impacted by some of the, you know, UAW contract or any other pressures that are facing that environment. Yeah, Craig, I think as we look out into 24, you know, again, we feel good about our cost structure today with where we're at.

Craig: We actively partner with our customers from a pricing perspective as commodity's move, you know, up and down and work very well with them and partnership from my perspective. So as we look at those, that component, the labor side of the business is very stable for us. We've got a great core group of labor, you know, a talent out there that is doing a fabulous job that is flexible and nimble, so we feel good about that.

Craig: I think as we just look at the model today, you know, and where we're stabilized and looking out in the future and positioned, you know, I think we look and say, okay, we're in a good spot. We can flex up very quickly and leverage off of that. And if we need to take some more cost out, we certainly can do that and we'll do that very prudently. So overalls, we look at the cost structure and the puts and takes, you know, I feel like we can continue to be very flexible and nimble with our business model.

Craig: And our team is just, it's just really good at that. And so been so impressed with what they've been able to do and the way that they proactively, you know, manage the business has been super invigorating from our perspective. So we feel like we can be flexible and nimble and flex, you know, with wherever volumes are at as we look at going forward. You know, obviously there's macroeconomic concerns out there, but we're positioned very well to continue to flex.

Craig: Great.

Craig: Thank you.

Griffin Bryan: As a reminder, to ask a question, you may press star one. The next question is from a line of grip from Brian with the A.

Griffin Bryan: Davidson. Please proceed with your questions. Yes, thanks. Just one for me. So in terms of what we've done here in the other inventory, we're both marine and RV. Do you think this returns to its powerful warning or any start level of the new run rate going forward over the medium to long term? Griffin, we're planning our business around the current weeks-on-hand levels, which we believe are obviously very low given the interest rate environment, and we certainly appreciate the prudence that both OEMs and dealers are using today to minimize floorplant financing costs.

Griffin Bryan: From our perspective, we're at a low level of weeks-on-hand lower than we would have anticipated, but it's been calibrated from our perspective, and so, you know, I think our modeling is centered around consistent weeks-on-hand, so we're not planning anything up. If it does go up, then we would expect some restocking, and we will certainly participate in flex with that. But right now, we're building our model off of consistent weeks-on-hand.

Andy Nemeth: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, I'll turn it over to Andy for closing remarks. I want to end the call by once again expressing my sincere gratitude to our talented team members who are the reason for our success. Their dedication and commitment are instrumental to Patrick, continuing to be a customer-focused supplier that empowers enthusiasts on the road, on the water, and at home. We find inspiration in the resilience displayed by our team despite the wide range of market and industry changes we've seen in the past few years.

Andy Nemeth: This resilience gives us the confidence that we can navigate any challenges that come our way, and we will continue to utilize our operational and financial levers appropriately to drive sustainable growth and deliver long-term value to our shareholders. We thank everyone who has joined us on the call today. Thank you.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's teleconference.

Operator: Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect your line.