Q4 2023 Edgewell Personal Care Co Earnings Call
Hello, and welcome to the edge well personal care fourth quarter 'twenty twenty-three earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen only mode should you need assistance. Please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.
To ask a question you May Press Star then one on your Touchtone phone. Please note. This event is being recorded I would like now to turn the conference over to Chris Gough Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Everyone and thank you for joining us this morning for edge, while its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023 earnings call with me. This morning are Rod Little our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Dan Sullivan, Our Chief Financial Officer, Rod will kick off the call then hand, it over to Dan to discuss our results and full year of fiscal 2024 outlook before we transition to Q&A.
Call is being recorded and will be available for replay via our website www dot <unk> dot com.
During the call we may make statements about our expectations for future plans and performance.
Might include future sales earnings advertising and promotional spending product launches savings and costs related to restructuring and repositioning actions acquisitions and integrations changes to our working capital metrics currency fluctuations commodity costs category value future plans for return of capital to shareholders and more.
Sure.
Any such statements are forward looking statements for the purposes of the Safe Harbor provisions under the private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Which reflect our current views with respect to future events plans or prospects. These statements are based on assumptions and are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including those described under the caption risk factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended September 30th 2022 as may be amended in our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q.
Which is on file with the SEC. These risks may cause our actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by our forward looking statements.
We do not assume any obligation to update or revise any of these forward looking statements to reflect new events or circumstances, except as required by law.
During this call we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is shown in our press release issued earlier today, which is available at the Investor Relations section of our website. This non-GAAP information is provide.
And as a supplement to not as a substitute for or superior to measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. However management believes these non-GAAP measures provide investors with valuable information on the underlying trends of our business with that I'd like to turn the call over to Rob.
Thanks, Chris Good morning, everyone and thanks for joining us on our fourth quarter and fiscal 2023 year end earnings call two.
2023 provided further evidence of progress in the transformation of our business as evidenced by a stronger portfolio of brands markedly better retail presence and improved commercial activation and execution.
In 2023, we delivered our third consecutive year of mid single digit organic net sales growth once again outpacing our long term algorithm.
We remain disciplined in the face of rising macroeconomic challenges accelerated our cost savings efforts realized meaningful price gains across the business and generated healthy cash flow.
We continue to operate with both focus and urgency all of which positions us for another year of top and bottom line growth in fiscal 'twenty four.
For fiscal 'twenty three our organic growth was broad based as we grew in all segments of the business and across both North America and international.
Amidst the challenging macro environment, we again focused on controlling the controllable.
Driving cost out of the business and investing with discipline, all of which underpin constant currency adjusted earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA growth of 14% and 9% respectively.
We generated $170 million in free cash flow, enabling the continued investment in the business.
Supporting our capital allocation strategy and meaningful debt repayment.
The fourth quarter played out as expected the consumer remained resilient and as we exit the fiscal year, our categories are largely healthy aggregate consumption across our U S segments increased five 5% in the quarter.
Market share performance was solid.
As we held share across the portfolio in the U S.
By gains in our women's systems men's systems, and disposables businesses, while we held share in Sun care.
In the quarter, we delivered organic net sales growth in line with our expectations and adjusted earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA growth ahead of our outlook.
Since the initiation of our growth strategy in November of 2020, our business has delivered consistent top line growth fueled by a stronger portfolio of brands and underpinned by the strides we have made across brand building product innovation retail execution and e-commerce activation.
We have fundamentally reshaped our leadership team and organization.
We strengthened our critical capabilities in areas like digital brand building and retail execution.
Our focus on consumer centric innovation and new product development has improved with the acquisition of the disruptive brand building capabilities of the criminal and really teams and more recently in international markets. We are realizing the benefits from our revised simplified go to market approach with better capabilities and <unk>.
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Overall, we exit fiscal 2023 with a stronger more capable team that is better equipped to drive the next phase of our transformation.
Over that same three year time horizon organic net sales growth has been driven by a healthy combination of growth from both unit volume and price importantly.
Importantly, the composition of our growth has been consistent with our long term profile as we benefit from the portfolio shift towards higher growth categories. Our right to win businesses, which include Sun care grooming and skin care have increased organic net sales by double digits on a three year CAGR basis.
With those businesses now approaching one third of total company sales compared to just 25% of sales when we launched the strategy three years ago.
We've also made good progress with our right to play portfolio, taking a historically declining subset of our business in shave and fem care and delivering organic net sales growth of over 1% on a three year CAGR.
These results and the progress we've made since outlining our long term vision and growth goals in 2020 demonstrate that our strategy is working.
And through our transformation is not complete we believe we are firmly on the right trajectory and have confidence that we can continue to drive sustained growth and lasting value creation.
Before moving to our outlook for 2024 I'd like to thank our teams across the globe for their dedication and for their continued focus on delighting, our consumers and executing our strategy over the past three years. This has been an incredibly difficult period to deliver on it.
Face significant macroeconomic challenges, including a global pandemic supply chain disruption.
Once in a generation levels of cost inflation.
Currency headwinds and more <unk>.
Fight this our teams focus and resilience has put us in the improved position we're in today.
Now I'd like to turn to the new fiscal year and provide some insight into our plans and then Dan will take you through the detailed assumptions.
Our outlook for fiscal 'twenty four calls for further top and Bottomline growth, reflecting four core drivers first continued organic sales growth.
Our outlook is for organic net sales growth in the range of plus two to plus 4% with growth again expected across both North America, and international markets and driven by a mix of higher volumes and price and revenue management.
Second further gross margin accretion.
By our productivity initiatives and further price and revenue management, which is expected to more than offset continued cost of goods inflation and currency headwinds.
Third we plan to increase investment in our brands and organization capabilities with advertising and promotion spending expected to increase in a disciplined and prioritize cadence growing both in dollars and as the rate of sale.
We plan to prioritize our incremental investments across critical brand initiatives, including supporting the 1 billion brands move into adjacent body categories.
Pelling innovation in Sun care, and the re platforming of our Fem care Master brand strategy.
And lastly, we anticipate improved operating margin driven by gross margin expansion and improved SG&A as the rate of sale, which will benefit from operational leverage as we improved efficiency across the organization.
This outlook calls for strong earnings growth.
Potential free cash flow generation and a disciplined approach to capital allocation and continued deleveraging of the business we.
We are confident we can deliver on this outlook.
Given our improved go to market position across our portfolio of brands and the markets in which we operate creating we believe a very compelling value proposition for shareholders.
And now I'd like to ask Dan to take you through our fourth quarter and full year results and also provide some additional detail on our outlook for fiscal 'twenty four Dan.
Thank you Rob Good morning, everyone. As you just heard we're pleased with both our financial and operational performance in the quarter and for the full year.
And while there's always more to do the fundamental improvements we've made across the business are delivering the expected results and give us confidence that the strategic choices. We've made are driving the desired outcomes.
Consumer demand was reasonably healthy for the year the broader macro environment was challenging further pressuring financial results and requiring both urgency and agility in.
In 2023, our business model absorbed approximately $125 million and incremental pre tax headwinds from Cogs inflation currency movements and higher interest expense.
And we responded by realizing significant productivity savings executing price actions across the portfolio.
Driving mid single digit organic sales growth and a three X increase in free cash flow generation.
All of which underpinned constant currency EPS growth of 14%.
We're proud of this operational performance in a very difficult macro environment.
Now, let me turn to the detailed results for the quarter and the fiscal year.
Organic net sales decreased one 9% in Q4 with fairly consistent percentage declines in both North America and international markets.
The results were as we expected, reflecting three specific transitory items previously referenced first the planned inventory buy down in wholesale in our wet shave business in Japan, which alone had an approximate two and a half point impact on total company organic sales in the quarter.
Second the negative effect of weather across the peak of the U S. Some fees.
And lastly, cycling the spike in demand in Q4 last year in Fem care as retailer inventory levels normalized after a period of supply disruption.
We continue to see the benefit from higher pricing in the quarter. So that was more than offset by a mid single digit decline in volumes largely due to the items just mentioned.
Wet shave organic net sales were down two 3% with North America, essentially flat, while international declined approximately 4%, which was largely a result of the inventory buy down in Japan completed in the fourth quarter.
In the U S razors and blades category consumption was up one 8% in the quarter and our market share in aggregate increased 60 basis points with meaningful gains in our women's systems portfolio led by continued strong beliefs share performance.
The brand continues to gain share as it expands in retail and has now reached about a 10 share of the category.
Despite the heightened competitive environment on shelf, our volume share gains of 330 basis points were above trend.
We also saw modest share gains in our men's systems and disposable businesses in the quarter a marked improvement in trends.
Sun and skin care organic net sales increased one 1% as strong growth in grooming wet ones and double digit growth in international Sun care was partly offset by declines in North America Sun care of about 14%.
In the U S. The declines were largely as expected and were a result of poor weather conditions earlier in the season, which led to lower retail replenishment orders, particularly at Walmart.
International Sun care sales increased nearly 12% despite cycling over 60% growth last year, driven by both price and volume gains as we continue to see strong growth in Latin America.
In the U S Sun care category consumption was up approximately 11% rebounding from the sluggish results last quarter.
Importantly, our Sun care portfolio maintained market share in the quarter and banana boat retained its number one share position.
Grooming organic net sales increased about 10% led by chromo growth in North America, and Bulldog growth internationally.
Wet ones organic net sales grew over 8% and our share was approximately 80%.
Fem care organic net sales were down five 5% for the quarter as mid single digit price gains were offset by lower volumes.
Category continues to cycle through last year's spikes in demand and the resulting out of stocks on shelf and we exited the year in a better position in terms of supply and demand and inventory levels on shelf.
For the year consumption in the category was up just under 5% and our share of the market was essentially flat now.
Now moving down the P&L gross margin on an adjusted basis increased 135 basis points or 225 basis points at constant currency.
In the quarter gains from price execution fully offset persistent yet easing cogs inflation.
Approximately 300 basis points of price gains and 265 basis points of productivity savings helped to offset a 225 basis point headwind from inflationary pressures and 115 basis point impact from negative category end market mix and other items.
A&P expenses were seven 5% of net sales in broadly in line with the prior year.
Adjusted SG&A increased 260 basis points in rate of sale versus last year as higher incentive compensation and people related costs and the impact of unfavorable currency movements were only partially offset by savings realized from ongoing operational efficiency programs.
Adjusted operating income was $68 million compared to $66 6 million last year.
GAAP diluted net earnings per share were <unk> 57.
Compared to <unk> 64 in the fourth quarter of fiscal 'twenty, two and adjusted earnings per share were <unk> 72.
Compared to 79 in the prior year period, including an estimated <unk> <unk> impact from unfavorable currency.
Adjusted EBITDA was $83 8 million compared to $94 $7 million in the prior year inclusive of an estimated $6 million unfavorable impact from currency.
Cash flow generation was strong in the quarter and net cash from operating activities for the full year ended September 30th more than doubled to $216 million.
Compared to a $102 million in the prior year.
We ended the quarter with $216 million in cash on hand access to the $297 million Undrawn portion of our credit facility and a net debt leverage ratio of three four times.
In the quarter share repurchases totaled $30 million we.
Tenured our quarterly dividend payout and declared another cash dividend of <unk> 15 per share for the fourth quarter.
In total we returned nearly $38 million to shareholders during the quarter and $107 million for the full year.
Now, let me turn briefly to our full year results organic net.
Net sales for the year increased four 3%.
Our right to win portfolio grew almost 11% fueled by 12% growth in Sun care, driven by both international and North America markets, while our grooming brands grew just over 9% for the year.
Our right to play portfolio delivered its third consecutive year of organic sales growth growing at about 2%.
From a geographic perspective organic net sales increased in North America by 3% driven by increased pricing, while <unk> international markets grew over 6%, realizing both volume and price gains.
Importantly, our in market performance was again solid and value market share across key global markets remained stable in fiscal 'twenty three.
In the U S aggregate market share declined about 40 basis points, primarily reflective of the expected decline in Sun care as competitive products returned to shelves following last year's product recalls.
Our aggregate market share on a volume basis increased 80 basis points for the year.
Importantly, our market share performance in the U S improved as the year progressed and as mentioned we held share in aggregate in the fourth quarter.
In the international markets share results were also stable with strong performance in key markets, such as Germany, where we saw a healthy share gains across the full shape portfolio of men's women's and disposables are.
Our Sun care portfolio performed well outside of the U S. Also led by share gains in Canada, and Germany, and meaningful consumption growth in Mexico and Australia.
Adjusted gross margin rate decreased 20 basis points year on year.
Positive pricing of just over 300 basis points and productivity savings of 230 basis points were more than offset by 400 basis points of higher Cogs inflation of 100 basis points of unfavorable currency and 55 basis points of negative mix.
On a constant currency basis, adjusted gross margin expanded 80 basis points year on year.
A&P expense was 10, 2% as a rate of sale as we continue to invest behind our brands A&P spend levels were below prior year in part due to a reduction in activation costs for Sun care related to the lower replenishment orders late in the season.
Adjusted operating profit increased $13 million or 6% and operating margin for the year was 10, 8% up 20 basis points in rate of sale and inclusive of $27 million unfavorable impact from currency on.
On a constant currency basis, <unk> margin increased 130 basis points year over year.
Now turning to our outlook for fiscal 2024.
As we enter year four of our transformation, we are increasingly confident in our ability to deliver sustainable topline growth continued gross margin accretion and further profit growth.
While inflation is easing it will remain a headwind in 2024 as well foreign currency given the expected strong dollar.
In this challenging and somewhat increasingly uncertain environment, we will continue to focus on the fundamentals and manage the aspects of the business that are directly in our control.
For the fiscal year, we anticipate organic net sales growth to be in the range of 2% to 4% with similar growth rates in half one and half to growth.
Growth is expected to come from both price and volume, although this will vary by geography and segment.
We anticipate reported net sales to be up 1% to 3% inclusive of about 60 basis points of currency headwinds.
As we look to adjusted gross margin, we anticipate about 80 basis points of year over year rate accretion or 100 basis points at constant currency. However, we expect gross margin to decline approximately 160 basis points in the first quarter.
Due to the timing of the release of unit cost inflation currently trapped in inventory as well as the result of unfavorable absorption impacts compared to the prior year as a result of our decision to structurally reduce inventory levels in 2024 after a prolonged period of inventory build coming out of the pandemic.
We expect approximately 200 basis points of productivity and a 100 basis points of price gains to more than offset approximately 130 basis points of Cogs inflation 50 basis points impact from the unfavorable absorption 20 basis points of negative mix and 20 basis points of unfavorable currency.
We remain committed to investing in our brands through A&P to support our growth outlook with A&P expected to increase in both dollars and rate of sale to approximately 11%.
Adjusted operating profit margin is expected to increase approximately 50 basis points inclusive of about 10 basis points of unfavorable FX, though we expect significant operating margin rate contraction in the first quarter.
Adjusted EPS is expected to be in the range of $2 65.
The $2 85.
Inclusive of approximately <unk> 20 per share of currency headwinds.
An increase of over 7% at the midpoint of the range or 15% in constant currency.
The EPS outlook reflects the impact of share repurchases of approximately $50 million and an assumed effective tax rate of 22%.
Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of 340 million to $352 million.
Lucid of an estimated $14 million currency headwinds.
On a constant currency basis, adjusted EBITDA growth at the midpoint of the range is expected to be approximately 6%.
In terms of phasing, we expect organic net sales growth in half one to be largely consistent with half two and that we will generate about 70% of our full year adjusted EPS in half two of the fiscal year.
With Q1, adjusted EPS meaningfully below prior year.
And finally free cash flow for the year is expected to be approximately $170 million.
For more information related to our fiscal 2024 outlook I would refer you to the press release and now I'd like to return the call to the operator for the Q&A session.
We will now begin the question and answer session to ask a question you May Press Star then one on your Touchtone phone if youre using a speakerphone. Please pick up your handset before pressing the keys to withdraw your question. Please press Star then two at this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster.
Our first question comes from Peter Grom of UBS.
Please go ahead.
Hey, Good morning, guys. This is Brian Adams on for Peter Graham. Thanks for taking my question. So just on the 2% to 4% organic range for 'twenty four I'm curious as we stand today.
What you guys see as the biggest flux point looking out next year is that the consumer or outcomes that shelf or something else. Thanks.
Yeah, Good morning, Brian.
I think the.
Outcomes at shelf, we don't have full visibility to that one yet we are in that cycle right. Now example, I was with.
Top retailer yesterday talking about our plans for next year. So.
Monogram shelf outcomes.
Not going to be a driver I don't believe I think we will have distribution kind of where we have it. This year some puts and takes probably a little better in some cases in total it is our view there thats baked into the plan and the consumer.
<unk>.
Had healthy categories.
Quarter four in line with the past 52 week trend right. So the consumer has been resilient and healthy to this point our categories are healthy.
We've planned for that to continue but as you might imagine within the guide range.
If the consumer gets hit.
That might take us towards the lower end of the guide range, where we're not planning, we're not expecting that at the midpoint at three.
But it is possible, maybe even probable depending on which economic outlook you see so I think the consumer health.
Is probably the biggest thing that puts variability into our growth projections and I believe at this moment, that's more of a U S comment for us I believe outside the U S. In our categories the consumers potentially relatively healthier as we are still seeing some recovery in some of the international.
Markets.
Brian the only thing I would add just maybe to put answer the question. The other way we said in the remarks, we expect about.
Three points at the mid point of organic growth you can kind of think about that the way. We've modeled it is two thirds of that through price and one third through through volume within the price piece I would say that.
About half of that is carryover price and about half of that is new which we have a really good line of sight to and feel really good about execution. So if you kind of think about organic through the lens of price and volume, what we've modeled and contemplated around price.
There's a high degree of confidence in it on our site.
Okay Awesome. Thank you both and then one more quick one on <unk>.
You don't mind I think this time last year, you guys were expecting A&P for 'twenty three to come in at around 11, 6% for the year. Obviously it came in lower and I know you mentioned some.
Some lower activation cost in Sun care here with the lower replenishment orders, but now we're expecting 11% for 24, so I'm just curious what's kind of changed.
The way you guys are thinking about that level of A&P year.
Yes look I think in principle I know A&P as a topic gets a lot of attention as it should our stance is pretty consistent Brian we're going to remain very disciplined in our approach of where we allocate dollars and what we place bets behind and we're going to we're going to continue to be return driven.
So said another way, where we feel like there is a high degree of execution and opportunity and where we feel like we can get really good returns, we're going to do that right and so and that's going to obviously.
Sort of way differently by quarter by brand by segment by geography, as we look forward I think youre seeing a couple of things happening we are getting much better at.
At the efficiency of spend.
Nominally digital activation much better clarity for us around where to deploy the next dollar and what returns it will generate.
Getting far more productive spend less non working dollars more working dollars and so we're able to bifurcate within our thinking what are we investing behind on a structural level day to day brand support retail activation and what big bets are we placing in in 2024, we've got a pretty good line.
Site around three initiatives that are getting significant spend which is around the work in our fem care business to re platform the portfolio behind carefree.
Exciting innovation in Sun, and Billy making its way into.
The body category, if you will on our retail pilot. So so we do feel like there's ample support behind the core of the business now that we are a healthier portfolio and adequate spend behind big commercial bets and activation.
Really helpful guys I'll pass it on thanks.
Thank you Brian Operator next question please.
Our next question comes from Susan Anderson from Canaccord. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, Thanks for taking my questions.
I had a quick question on the gross margin for first quarter I guess, how much of the decline has to clear through the excess inventory and I guess what categories is that mainly end versus the higher cost product. That's in inventory base. Currently and then also do you still have productivity savings flowing through and gross margin for the PR.
Yes, good morning, Susan stand, so I'll take them in reverse order.
On the productivity savings, we are contemplating another year of meaningful savings we've estimated it at about 200 basis points for the year fairly consistent quarter over quarter. So the answer there is yes on the margin profile and I'm, just going to ladder up for a minute because I think it's important to capture all of the elements and then I'll speak to <unk>.
Q1, we continue to see and have a really good line of sight to the structural elements of margin in other words.
Inflationary concerns and pressures, which are absolutely easing, but we are not yet net net deflationary. So there are still headwinds in 2024, we've sized that at about 130 basis points FX.
FX headwinds will continue although moderate versus 2023 levels.
Then the offsets around pricing and productivity pricing, we estimate about 100 basis points further tailwind and then.
Activity as I mentioned 200, so really good line of sight to that I think if you look back at 2023, and what we said a year ago.
We're pretty close to the Mark on all of those elements. So we feel confident that structural margin improvement is happening and therefore margin accretion is.
Is it realistic to your question on Q1, you've got two different headwinds that disproportionately are affecting Q1, hence the margin step back. One you mentioned, which is costs that are tied up in inventory that still need to pull through that's still carry what I'll call excessive inflation with them Sun care would be a great example of.
That right. If you think about the rising Sun chemicals, which was double digits for most of the year last year.
And then you think about the fourth quarter, where we didn't ship what we would've expected to ship, you've got a higher inventory level and song with disproportionately higher inflation trapped there that needs to come out the second item, though is around absorption and we've called this out just to be transparent and give everyone. The puts and takes we.
We're estimating about a 50 basis point full year headwind around absorption and.
That's really related to our decision to structurally reduce inventory levels. We will take just over 10 days of inventory out but.
But that's disproportionately felt where we manufacture shave and sun and so and we expect that to happen largely in the first quarter. So you've got to step back in margin you've got the trailing effect of the high inflation items trapped in inventory and you've got the structural decision to take days out with an absorption hit in the first quarter.
Okay, Great that's really helpful.
Just really quick at retail I guess on the Sun category I think it ended up maybe being a little bit better at retail. So do you guys feel like the inventory did you in the quarter and a much better position than when you started or is there still some clear through there and then also just on the Fem care side, if I understood it right it sounds.
Maybe a little bit too much inventory and they're also at retail was that a category because I know there was obviously some supply chain issues that the retailer kind of restock too much and now just kind of need to level that out.
Yeah, I'll start with the Sun care point, and I think you're right look the category came back quite well in the fourth quarter. It was up 11% and you saw the good weather across most of the U S and consumption followed that.
What we saw in we called out lower replenishment orders anticipating this in the quarter that was largely a Walmart discussion.
And Walmart performed quite well in the Sun care category, we lost share at Walmart, we lost share in the quarter Omar and yet we held share total retail in Q4. So I think it speaks to where we were on shelf, where we had adequate inventory.
<unk> responded quite well to.
To your point on total inventory levels, we feel quite good we're exiting the year in a really healthy spot going into next year. Some season. So no no expected overhang there on Fem care, Yes, I think it's a good way to think about it there was a small sort of.
Take down of inventory on shelf, mostly around playtex sport.
But again I think we entered the year, maybe not in a perfect inventory position because we're still cycle through this choppiness around supply and demand in the broader category, but in a in a healthier position than a year ago.
Okay, great. Thanks, so much for all the details good luck for SCR.
Thank you. Thank you Susan operator next question please.
The next question comes from Chris Carey of Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, Good morning, guys. So just on this.
Inventory dynamic.
So can you just maybe help us.
Help us understand volume cadence.
Through the year competence around volumes and then.
How much is dependent on.
Feel better sell through such that you can get back to shipping in line with consumption again, just any any sort of help on volte.
Volume assumptions and.
How we should be thinking about selling versus sell through.
Which is typically a thing.
Comes to mind, when we hear.
Inventory corrections in these circumstances.
Yes, so Chris.
Morning.
We don't have an inventory issue.
I don't think we are at retail or in our own system. I think we finished fiscal 'twenty three.
In a very good position and as you know we took some some very aggressive steps within fiscal 'twenty three to address this situation specifically in Japan, where we right size the inventory that was out there with wholesalers and retailers in Japan. It was a material impact.
Points of growth on quarter. Four for example that we cleaned up in 'twenty three that wasn't in our original guide by the way when we put that out there so.
We cleaned that up and there were other cleanups that we did.
Around the world. So we headline areas from an inventory perspective of what we know is that retail in every category in every country and what we have in our system here were clean and good Theres no inventory bubble or issue to correct as we get into 'twenty four as you look at volumes and you get into.
Where we've come from in fiscal 'twenty, three we delivered our 4% with roughly 500 basis points of pricing volume down 100 basis points. So that's what's happened over the past 12 months.
As we now flip into what we have line of sight to for 'twenty four as Dan referenced earlier.
In our three points at the midpoint.
Rejection for net sales growth on an organic basis.
About 100 basis points of that being volume at 200 being a combination of price revenue management mix all of those things and so it's effectively a 200 basis point step up in unit volume and it's a combination of everything you have to look category by country.
It's a very different outcome as you might imagine as you look at it but broadly as we have less pricing in than we did a year ago, we see some volume recovery.
As we play that out I think we're confident in our full looking 3% and how it how it builds out Dan Arnold.
Yes, all good comments right, Chris I would add a couple of things just on our volume outlook.
I think it's there's two fundamental drivers to this call at a point of growth that we're going to.
Dissipate inorganic I think one of the drivers is some of the new and exciting.
<unk> portfolio of product that you heard us talk about in the prepared remarks, whether that's innovation in Sun, whether that's the new carefree Master brand launch both of which we think come with incremental distribution or whether it's the ability play now as it moves into its rightful place outside of shape also new distributions. So there is.
Volume growth in for example in those three specific areas.
Then.
The second piece is what Ron alluded to what we're cycling, which is Japan in the fourth quarter, where we made the decision to take distributor inventory out you put those two together.
Two what we would consider about a point of organics coming from from volume how it flights during the year pretty consistent other than the fourth quarter. When we step up in volume growth year over year again, because we're cycling Japan. The only other comment I would make is and I think maybe this is just to avoid any confusion.
This is <unk>.
Talking about inventory levels on shelf.
And also inventory levels for us across the enterprise, we are structurally taking inventory out of the system next year, we have that opportunity now that we're sort of past the COVID-19 time of disruption and supply chain challenges and the like we think we can deliver the same level of high service at lower cost.
Lower inventory burden. So so we will do that to the tune of about 10 days.
That's different than the comments rod was making around retail shelf inventory levels, which are far more normalized than makes them hopefully that's helpful.
That is helpful.
One follow up would be I believe you said that you're expecting SG&A leverage in fiscal 'twenty for <unk>.
SG&A as a percentage of sales.
Down year over year.
You had mid single digit growth in fiscal 'twenty, three and at the top.
Is the volume leverage a key component of that or are there. Other factors that you have in your control like like savings or other initiatives that are it can be that capital. Thanks.
Yeah. So good question on G&A, because I think there's been there's been some some math challenges here.
I think total G&A for the year 2024 on a dollar basis, Chris we're profiling basically flat dollars and the way that we get there is factoring in all of the inflationary challenges continued merit increases and everything that comes with that being offset dollar for dollar by structural.
Cost reduction part of our continued efforts to become more productive and more efficient. So we feel pretty good about that the work's been done we have a line of sight to the savings we're actually executing many of the steps. This week. So so you've got a model that says you know inflation is getting offset dollar for dollar by structural cost reduction.
Then along comes the growth profile and Theres your leverage.
The one thing I would also call out is.
If you if you want to get what we think is a good proxy for quarterly G&A levels I would look to Q2 Q3 of last year 102 million $103 million is a really good proxy we will see a step up in Q1. This year against last year, mostly because we're cycling some good guys that hit in 2020.
Three related to changes in compensation and benefits and as we disclosed we had a step up in Q4 of 2023, mostly related to higher incentive costs. So there's some choppiness by quarter, but I think flat year over year is what we see Q2 Q3 levels being the proxy for each of the quarters in <unk>.
24 is what we see and correct, Chris I would just ladder ladder up on the SG&A point because youre.
Youre, making a good point here on the leverage and how it comes together, we're seeing leverage right as we put this together with which is good and I think we are.
We're excited about that but as we look at SG&A more broadly.
We look at the forward looking period, and say we need to control what we can control in SG&A as much as anything else is in our control.
So we've been very focused on being smart and very efficient with how we allocate spend for next year, but we also have lots of opportunity as we reduce cost to actually improve the effectiveness of how we run the business and so I'll just give you two examples we're eliminating layers.
Did exist in the business today historically, we've had an international layer between the global leadership team in the local markets in our international markets, we've effectively eliminated that layer and as a result.
In addition to having better leadership capability and talent in the local markets.
We've now got a direct connection it's faster.
It's simpler theres less handoffs it actually ends up leading to a better result, and I think some of what youre seeing in our international markets and the growth rates Youre seeing come out of those markets is a direct result from that change equally as we talk about innovation.
We have historically had a global structure in this company that built innovation and then slowed that down to local markets.
Path from a consumer insight.
To a product or an offering or a solution to a consumer has been very long slow with too. Many handoffs as we eliminate some of those handoffs and streamline and de layer that innovation process <unk> cheaper, but b, it's better it's faster and ultimately then what we.
Put into market is better received by consumers. So we I guess, we have a good fortune by having a historical structure and set up the offers opportunity for cost reduction, but at the same time for better outcomes on the sales line.
This comprehensive and thank you very much.
Thanks, Chris Operator next question please.
Our next question comes from Dara <unk> from Morgan Stanley.
Hold one moment.
Hello.
Please go ahead.
Uh huh.
Hey, guys can you hear me.
We can hear you that there are good morning, okay.
Great. So I just wanted to return to the subject of AD spend totally get the point about the internal efficiencies, but we've seen your H P. C peers really increased spend at pretty significant rates this year, but sort of in the opposite direction.
Granted some of those are direct competitors, but.
You're now basically at a level are expected to be at a level. This year, that's at or below a lot of your HBC peers. Despite.
Then be larger and theoretically having more leverage is as a percent of sales. So.
Just wanted to get longer term context is 11% of sales really the right levels should that go back up over time.
And then just be near term with the increases we're seeing elsewhere in the industry are you comfortable with the share of voice in your categories and how do you think about that short term. Thanks.
Yes, so dara I think 11% that you see that we've got in our outlook for 'twenty for that is roughly a point at rate of sale of improvement.
Year over year, and so as we've landed 23 and we look forward to 'twenty four we definitely believe much like you've seen in referenced from some of our peers.
A good time to lean in and increase AD spend which we're doing.
We're being very intentional in specific on where we're doing that Dan referenced it before we've got an expansion opportunity with a strong Billy shave business now thats roughly 10%.
Market share after.
After the national rollout, which has been very successful we've earned the right to take that brand into Adjacencies and we've got good acceptance from.
From a lead retailer that will do that with here in the year ahead, we will fund that we will have what I believe will be the number one innovation in Sun care.
This coming year around a form factor change.
Super interesting we've had good retailer reaction to it the consumer testing we have on it.
Is very strong we're going to lean in and spend behind that and then Dan also reference to carefree Master brand.
Redo, where we're going to strengthen that brand, we're going to simplify the structure of the portfolio on the brand lineup.
And we've had great retailer response to that lead to some incremental distribution around that we think the consumer is going to love it as well, it's gonna be a simpler category to shop. So we're leaning into those three areas and then were also incrementally funding some shave opportunities.
That we think are interesting as well so it's a it's a very balanced spend its a very disciplined approach and doing more in house model than we traditionally have in the past. So we have paid agencies to do things for us and frankly it has not been super effective we have in house, a lot of that which is cheaper and sometimes it's a mall.
It'll shift out of A&P to G&A as well so we have some of that going on but the other thing I would leave you with is when you factor out our private brands group, which takes zero A&P support and is effectively contribution margin average that 11% looks more like 12 EBIT slightly over <unk>.
<unk> percent on an adjusted basis for that fact, Dan Yeah. All good points are the only thing I would add maybe just for how we think about our business model. I think 2024 is a really good example, you got top line growth you've got gross margin accretion you've got leverage in your G&A line and that and that gross margin accretion.
Funding a step up in A&P spend that is the model now we have to be balanced about that coming out of high inflation and currency headwinds and interest expense. So as Rob said, it's a balancing act, but that model of sustainably grow at the top generate margin accretion tight on costs and fund incremental brand investment that.
Is the model and we just need to sort of balance the view of today and some of the macro challenges and the view of tomorrow all of that goes into how we think about spend.
Thanks, guys.
Okay. Thank you operator next question please.
The next question comes from Olivia Tong with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Great. Thank you my question is around gross margin obviously.
Nice to see the expansion that you're.
Are you expecting for fiscal 'twenty 'twenty.
24.
While this is still a fair bit below historical levels and then you mentioned in your comments about Q1 and in the starting point so.
Why do you think gross margins can eventually get back to.
And the private bank.
Drivers that get you there.
You mentioned, some incremental price what categories.
Or are those price increases coming into and the magnitude and then just.
What what are sort of building blocks and in terms of getting.
Gross margin.
And to continue thank you.
Yes, Thank you Olivia.
We remain very committed and I think a.
Very confident that we can get back to a 45 plus percent gross margin.
Back into the fiscal 18 19 period. If you go back to that time period, and so I think that that's more than an ambition I think it's you know as we worked through our forward looking plans. We've got building blocks to go deliver that so very much committed to do that very much have line of sight to do that what we don't control.
<unk> is short term inflationary bumps or potentially deflation if it comes.
The foreign exchange impact that we have on what is a very globally distributed manufacturing and supply chain network and we've had headwinds last year, we've got headwinds again this year.
<unk> gross margin to roughly 100 basis points, so as foreign exchange overtime normalizes, and as we catch up and get imbalanced with where inflation in pricing and product offerings are that that will normalize I see there being kind of three big buckets of building blocks to the margin.
Line. One is continued cost productivity work that we'll have within our manufacturing logistics and distribution network, we still have lots of opportunity to optimize there. So I think cost productivity will continue to be a driver the second bucket.
Would be price and revenue management, just good hygiene better capability around that in being accretive to margin every year is a building block as we go forward and then the third one I would call out is healthier brands better innovation.
And better brand building showing up.
On shelf and online when consumers choose our brands and that's the journey. We're on it we've made good progress around the.
The desirability of our brands that with consumers I think that will continue to improve and with that we will become incrementally more pricing more margin power as we build that out for the future.
Yes, Olivia just to your question on pricing in 'twenty four I would say to you. The the pure price lever is disproportionately being seen in international you can think about markets, where we have a leading position in segments, So, Japan, shave or Mexico, Sun, where we see further opportunities.
To take price some of which has already been executed I think you'll also see a piece, though disproportionate in North America that Rob referred to around strategic revenue management. So good promotional efficiency improved trade terms just good execution that drives benefit in unit economics unit revenue. So you see both of them.
Price more in international markets.
Good revenue management more in North America, that's how we thought about 24%.
Thanks very much.
Thanks, Olivia operator next question please.
As a reminder, if you have not yet ask a question. Please press star then one to enter the queue.
With no further questions. This will conclude our question and answer session I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Rod Little for any closing remarks.
Yes. Thank you everybody for your time, we look forward to the year ahead, and delivering another year at or above algorithm growth rates. Thank you.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation you may now disconnect.
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