Q3 2023 Rover Group Inc Earnings Call
Yeah.
Yeah.
Good day and thank you for standing by welcome to the Rover third quarter 2023 earnings Conference call.
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If I had that today's conference is being recorded and I would now like to hand, the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Walter Roddy, Vice President of Investor Relations and capital markets Sir.
Please go ahead.
Okay.
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us to discuss third quarter 2023 earnings results.
In this call we will be discussing the results announced in our press release issued today, which is available on our Investor Relations website at investors got Rover Dot com.
As a reminder, this call is being webcast live.
Investor Relations website and is being recorded and will be available for replay from there shortly after the call.
With me today is Aaron easterly Chief Executive Officer, and co founder Frank.
Brent Turner, President and Chief operating Officer.
Charlie Wickers, Chief Financial Officer and Rover.
Before we begin I'd like to.
Everyone that management will make certain forward looking statements within the safe Harbor provisions of the Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
These include future GAAP, and non-GAAP financial and operating results.
And trends.
This metric performance in 2023 financial guidance marketing products and investment in other strategies.
<unk> future growth prospects margins profitability and liquidity.
Investments and initiatives and their impact macroeconomic public health pet care industry.
Actual real estate and travel expectations factor.
And trends.
<unk> growth and expansion expectations and opportunities.
Regarding our share repurchase program and other future events industry and market conditions.
Forward looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or performance to differ materially from those expressed or implied during the call, including the risks and uncertainties included under risk factors and elsewhere in our most recent Form 10-K, and recently filed Form 10-Qs.
All forward looking statements speak only as of today and are based on current expectations estimates forecasts and projections and are beliefs and assumptions of management.
We undertake no duty to update this information unless required by law.
You should not place undue reliance on forward looking statements as they are not guarantees of future performance.
We will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures.
The directly comparable GAAP financial measures and historical reconciliations to their most directly comparable GAAP measure can be found in the non-GAAP reconciliation supplement posted under news and events presentations.
<unk> got Rover Dot com.
For the reasons discussed in the non-GAAP reconciliation supplement we have not provided the most directly comparable forward looking GAAP measure or a reconciliation.
Any future non-GAAP measures.
non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to GAAP financial measures.
Unless otherwise noted we will compare all Q3 2023 metrics to Q3 2022 in this call.
Let's get started I'll now turn the call over to Aaron easterly co founder and CEO Erin.
Thanks, Walter and thank you everyone.
Joining us today I will start by discussing our third quarter 2023 earnings results and give a few highlights before turning the call over to Brent to outline a booking performance.
And marketing product.
The prepared remarks by providing additional detail on the financials and our guidance before we take questions.
We had a spectacular third quarter reporting net income of $10 $5 million and adjusted EBITDA of $17 5 million or 26% margin on.
On the topline gross booking value grew to $266 million.
Increased to $66 million.
As a result of our strong performance and reduced expected macro risks in the remainder of 2023.
Getting to increasing our revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year.
Beyond these headline results, we continue to build on our priorities.
First we demonstrated continued strong operating leverage in our business with substantial adjusted EBITDA and net.
Income margin expansion.
We were able to continue investing in product and marketing, while increasing adjusted EBITDA margin from 20% in the prior year to 26% this year.
These results suggest that the lower bound of our long term adjusted EBITDA margin target should be higher than the 30% that we have.
We communicated and we are evaluating how much to increase it.
Second we achieved record new customer bookings of 290000 up 8% over last year's record levels. This result, outpaced our measure of new business demand by approximately 20 points.
Third our non U S markets had another quarter of strong growth GBP in Europe grew 71% and 35% in Canada.
Resulting in a non U S market, representing 10% of the total.
G B V for casually bookings continued its tremendous growth.
134% in Europe, and 58% in Canada.
Our continued strength with cat parents.
Fourth LTV from customers acquired in Q3 are pacing to all time records, while the Q1 and Q2 cohorts have continued their record pace. Additionally, last year's cohorts continue to surpass prior years.
And finally improvements to our product are driving topline growth. We have continued to roll out more initiatives to help pet parents find their best.
We expect these changes to provide enduring benefits beyond this quarter.
As we close out the remainder of the year. Our Q3 performance improved outlook is the engagement we're driving for.
Our performance over the last two years is a testament to the fundamental power of the business model, our market position and the opportunity to continually improve the platform and most importantly, the dedication and discipline of our team.
We believe that we are well positioned to further our mission of making it possible for everyone to experience the unconditional love of a pet.
Our opportunity for growth is tremendous with approximately 87 million pet owning households in the U S and a similar amount in Europe.
And we are excited about what's to come.
With that I'll turn it over the call to Brent to discuss our bookings and operational performance.
Thanks, Darren and good afternoon to everyone.
By providing a bit more commentary on our success in driving booking volumes.
Then I will discuss the execution of our marketing strategy.
Finally, I'll wrap up by highlighting some of our product investments during the quarter.
In Q3, we generated record levels of new and repeat business on the platform total bookings increased 20% versus Q3, 2022 repeat bookings were over $1 5 million or 23% increase year over year.
New bookings totaled 290000 up 8% over a record third quarter in 2022.
Bookings performance was especially encouraging as it represents our highest level in a quarter to date.
It provides further evidence that our product enhancements and marketing efforts have continued to drive gains in market share.
Turning to marketing in Q3, non-GAAP marketing expense was 19% of revenue.
Lower end of our target range of 18% to 25%.
<unk> was active in Q3, as we launched our latest video AD concept to Mohammed.
It's become a celebrated discussion topic in several online magazine.
Is that is yet another innovation in support of our strategy to cost effectively drive new bookings and build the category through upper funnel channels.
Further continued maturation of our conversion drivers in our European markets has enabled us to expand our channel beds into a puddle media channels as well as helping to further accelerate new customer acquisitions.
Now I'll turn to product investments.
In Q3, we continued to execute our strategy of driving new and repeat bookings by improving conversion rates and platform stickiness.
First we were pleased to respond to pet parent feedback by launching a beta version of our star Cedar program in select markets.
This program helps rover to better identify care providers, who provide particularly exemplary experiences.
We address the pet parent pinpoint in Europe by Rolling out recurring booking functionality.
This capability allows them to easily schedule ongoing care for their pets, particularly for daytime services like daycare and dog walking.
Third we implemented refinements to our scheduling functionality as well as the contact more cities program.
These improvements were in response to customer testing of recent enhancements about capabilities.
In total we expect these changes to drive approximately 50000 incremental bookings in 2024.
Importantly, I would like to highlight the product improvement efforts of our operations team.
We have recently completed a global implementation of App based support messaging.
Pet parents and care providers as well as our reengineering every self service center. These.
These improvements are responses to long standing feedback from our community members, who have won it easier and more contexts appropriate ways to contact us for help.
Getting these capabilities to market as required non trivial preparation and technical development on the part of our teams.
Adoption of this capability has been very strong and we expect for it to enable us to accomplish those rarest of double wins.
Higher customer satisfaction and improved efficiency at the same time.
I'm proud of our team's accomplishments and momentum and I look forward to more progress.
Our work, though is never complete.
And we continue to test additional product improvements to drive both new and repeat bookings.
Now I will turn the call over to Charlie to provide detail on our financial performance.
Start by discussing the quarter followed by guidance.
Rover produce phenomenal financial results during the quarter, including strong revenue growth.
Net income and continued adjusted EBITDA margin expansion.
Further as Aaron indicated.
SaaS clearly demonstrates our ability to scale margins and gives us confidence to consider raising the low end of our adjusted EBITDA margin target.
For the quarter <unk> was up 25%.
<unk> was up 30% to $66 million.
Increase in revenue was primarily driven by three factors.
First approximately two thirds of the revenue increase was driven by the 20% growth in bookings that Brian described.
Second.
A fifth of the revenue increase was due to the higher recognize take rate of 23, 6%.
Up from 22, 4% a year ago.
Benefited from the shift of all U S owners to the 11% fee structure and a 90 basis point cancellation rate improvement and third approximately 13% of the revenue increase was driven by higher ABB is of $142.
Which were up 4% year over year.
The main driver of ABB growth was an increase in average price per unit of service.
Improvements in take rate and cancellation rates have driven both growth in revenue as well as an expansion of our margins.
In Q3, our non-GAAP contribution margin increased to approximately 82% from 81% in Q3 2022.
Moving to expenses, we continue to invest in our funnel marketing through the summer peak season, while managing costs across the business.
Beyond the strong revenue performance and contribution margin improvement the Bottomline beat for the quarter was driven by three items.
First continued leverage in operations and support and Q3 non-GAAP operations and support was 11% of revenue an improvement from 14% of revenue in Q3 2022.
Efficient marketing investment continues to drive scale in our business.
In Q3, we were able to invest in marketing, while keeping our non-GAAP marketing expense as a percentage of revenue in the low end of our target range.
Third our commitment to managing fixed costs, and non-GAAP product development and non-GAAP G&A.
non-GAAP product development was 10, 5%.
non-GAAP G&A was 15% of revenue.
Creasing from 11, 4% and 19% of revenue respectively in Q3 of 2022.
Continue to believe that there are additional investments that will allow us to drive incremental improvement in our current offerings.
We believe it is best to sequence our investments in product only adding additional investments if they were expected to be accretive to our medium term trajectory.
With this approach our year over year incremental margins have continued to demonstrate the high margin leverage potential of Rover and our ability to generate and during annual net income.
Moving to an update on our buyback program.
Through November one we have repurchased a total of $9 1 million shares for an aggregate purchase price of $49 million nearing.
Nearing the full amount of our authorized program.
As of November one our shares outstanding of approximately $179 6 million.
A decrease of $4 9 million from year end 2022.
We're happy with our current cash balance and the multiyear cash generation potential of the business and we believe that a repurchase of our shares continues to be an effective investment of our capital.
Accordingly.
<unk> is authorized an extension of our repurchase program to February of 2025, and refresh the available capital with an additional $100 million.
Now turning to guidance.
As Aaron discussed.
We're excited by our performance as we head into the final few months of the year and are raising our full year 2023 guidance.
We continue to see that our performance has outpaced the macro headwinds.
As a result, the increase in guidance takes into account our over performance in Q3, and our higher confidence in our ability to execute in the current environment.
Similar to previous guidance, we continue to account for potential illness related impacts and we're also keeping an eye on pet adoption and spend trends home sales volumes and leisure travel trends.
The full year 2023.
We now expect revenue of $230 million to $232 million.
At the midpoint would be a 33% increase in revenue over 2022.
And adjusted EBITDA of $46 million to $48 million or 20% adjusted EBIT margin at the midpoint.
Fourth quarter, we expect 64% to $66 million in revenue, which at the midpoint would be a 25% increase in revenue over Q4, 2022, and $17 million to $19 million and adjusted EBITDA or 28% adjusted EBITDA margin at the midpoint.
In summary, Rob.
<unk> generated fantastic topline growth expanded adjusted EBITDA margins produced net income all while investing in our product and delivering capital to shareholders.
These results are a demonstration of our focus and dedication of the rubber team and our ability to capitalize on the market opportunity.
We will now turn to questions operator can you open it up for Q&A.
Thank you.
As a reminder to ask a question. Please press star one one on your phone.
Standby as we compile the Q&A roster.
Yes.
And one moment please for our first question.
Our first question will come from Ralph Scott of William Blair. Your line is open.
Hi, Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question first question just on the really strong trends, you're seeing new customer acquisition and I think on the call you talked about.
The final media trends accelerating new customer growth, maybe just a little bit more color on that.
Media strategy and are you finding more <unk>.
<unk> are becoming more efficient as a combination of both that I have.
Thanks Ralph.
Yeah, I think what we're starting to see is the accumulation of efforts to that.
We did we've had going for a while I think.
<unk> talked in previous calls about how the returns in the upper funnel channels you get some of it immediately and then you get a lot of it.
In future months, and because we've had our upper funnel channels not only on but accelerating.
Our growing at a steady rate, we're starting to kind of see.
<unk>.
Rolling trend of increasing our funnel bookings, we have an internal measure where we try to.
Let's take a look at what we think the category is doing and what we think were doing from a customer acquisition standpoint.
And we're staying well ahead of the category and we think a lot of that is attributable to our momentum.
With apparel channels too early to say with the new spot is doing although very early signals have been positive.
Great maybe just a follow up kind of bigger picture Erin I think you talked about just seeing still weakness in the drivers that you track yet you still posted really really strong growth.
Maybe if you can just sort of reconcile that as I'm guessing a lot of it's product driven and then on the weakness in the drivers are still at the same level are they getting better on a relative basis, just any more color on that would be awesome. Thank you.
Sure.
So over the last several years a lot of focus has been on travel and Covid because that was kind of the dominating inputs into our business, but the reality is always been a lot more complex and people are more likely to consider rover sidor when they make a move and are moving into a place without the same network of friends family.
We have neighbors.
So housing market impacts Rover.
Interest in pet adoption and kind of what people are willing to spend on their pets are also big factors and we're seeing that those are starting to matter a little bit more as the travel and COVID-19 environment becomes a little bit steadier.
The growth, we're seeing is really a testament to how well the business can work, especially as it scales.
We believe we have a competitive advantage and what we do we are by far the largest share player in terms of.
Online transactional marketplace for pet services.
And we have really good word of mouth. So.
So we hope to continue to outgrow category, although all the different factors that contribute to category has become more complicated.
That's helpful. Thanks, guys. Thanks, Brian.
Thank you.
One moment please for our next question.
Our next question.
Will it come from the line of Andrew Boone of JMP Securities. Your line is open.
Thanks, so much for taking the questions I wanted to start with repeat bookings growth accelerated Darren just another strong quarter.
And to your comments to Ralph's question is there anything else that you kind of unpack to help us understand just the strength that you're seeing.
Sure.
<unk> bookings is something that for our business has been.
I am continually year over year, if you look pre COVID-19, our cohorts didn't go up every year.
Driving force varies a little bit year to year, sometimes it may be a little bit more on pricing, sometimes it may be more on bookings per customer, sometimes it's better long term retention, sometimes it's the introduction of new services.
Kind of the normal trend we saw pre pandemic.
And so over the last three years, we've just seen a return to the underlying fundamentals of the business around our cohorts.
This quarter, specifically, we saw a little bit of an acceleration in the bookings per customer compared to last year on our daytime services. So the bookings per customer or was that more year over year than the overnight services. It's too early to say whether or not that's a return to work phenomenon, but it's nice to see hasnt.
Move the overall mix that much yet a little bit.
But we're seeing that dynamic as well.
That's helpful and then I wanted to go to long term margins.
Incremental kind of EBITDA margins on revenue was I think 47% just last quarter. You guys are part of something over 40 throughout 2023 understood. It's very early here and you guys may not want to give us.
That much guidance here, but is that the right way to think about the potential long term margins is kind of look at the 2023 steady state is kind of that 40% plus and then imply from there or how do you guys think about it.
Okay.
Hey, Andrew Yeah, our last couple of quarters that the incremental margins have been quite strong about 40%.
I would say it is too early for us to provide guidance on this at this time, but it is one of the main reasons why we are looking at adjusting the low end of our long term adjusted EBITDA Guide previously that was set at 30%, but based on the performance this year.
The wins that we're getting from the product side, the health that we're getting from new customer growth as well as the repeat booking dynamic, it's just causing us.
Take a step back and take a second look at that number but too early to give you incremental guide beyond that.
Just adding to Charlie's point.
The fact that we felt compelled to bring it up suggests that we believe it's a material change to that lower bound.
So we're talking percentage points or more not basis points.
We think that your proposal in terms of looking at the incremental flow through way is a very good way to think about.
The incremental flow through and how that could drive our long term margins.
We use the term long term, we typically talking about three to five years. So that's actually the work. We're doing right now is kind of saying Hey, what do we think is appropriate range for that three to five year timeframe, but if you were to go out longer.
Yes, we think it could be even higher.
Thank you so much.
Thank you.
One moment please for our next question.
Yes.
Our next question will come from Maria risks of Canaccord. Your line is open.
Great Good afternoon, and thanks for taking my questions.
Firstly, you shed contribution to revenue growth in the quarter, but can you maybe just talk about some of the areas of strength in the quarter versus your internal expectations at the time you provided guidance back in August.
I guess, how sustainable some of those factors factors heading into Q4.
Hi, Mario this is Charlie I'll take.
With regards to how we were thinking about the business last quarter. One of the biggest things that was an unknown for US was how the macro is going to play out starting here in Q3 and continuing into Q4.
At that time, the best estimates that we have seen externally.
Regarding a recession with a chance of hitting in Q4 as we went through the quarter. We just continue to see strength from the business.
Not only that our product wins.
Lay out, but whatever whatever level.
Macro disruption there was we were able to overcome it and so that contributed quite a bit.
The quarterly beat with regard to revenue I walked through those but with regards to the expense dynamic we have pretty good line of sight to our costs they are controllable.
A team that is dedicated to staying within the parameters that they have set for themselves within a quarter. So really the biggest if you want to call. It a surprise was with regards to the macro but it was still positive.
Yes.
Okay got it that's very helpful. And then is there any color you can share in terms of how you're thinking about the level of investments next year and to what extend your investment cadence predicated on the macro environment.
Well, it's worth kind of define that a little bit into our investments in product versus marketing.
Brent has talked about for several quarters now our desire to move a little bit more up funnel and to reach more of that friends family neighbors segment that we think is our primary Tam opportunity.
We expect that to continue but to Charlie's point. The team is very disciplined about working within the construct of our unit economic parameters.
To drive growth for the sake of driving growth, we drive growth because we believe its profitable growth in a very profitable growth.
So we think that that dynamic plays out naturally in a weaker environment, we will probably spend less than we otherwise would in a stronger environment, we'll probably spend a little bit more.
With regards to the product side.
And our investments in new capabilities, we continue to think that we are generally.
Staffed appropriately.
We expect to continue to invest heavily into our existing product and make it work better and better and better but we also expect to continue to experiment in new opportunities to address pet parents pain points.
And so there'll be a continued mix of that for.
For our product investments, we have a longer horizon. So we wouldn't expect to whipsaw that investment around too much based on the ebbs and flows on a quarter to quarter basis on the macro.
Got it that makes sense. Thanks, so much for the call and congrats on the strong quarter.
Thank you.
Thank you.
And again to ask a question. Please press star one one on your phone and wait for your name to be announced to withdraw your question. Please press star one again.
A moment please for our next question.
Our next question will come from Eric Sheridan of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Thanks, so much for taking the questions maybe two if I can.
One would be a longer term one how do you continue to sort of think about pricing of your services longer term in terms of elasticity and what that might mean for incremental margin our ability to reinvest back in the business over the long term when you see some of the supply demand dynamics around the services layer of the platform that would be.
Number one and then you talked a little bit about cancellation rates I think they are still below.
Sort of pre COVID-19 levels any update on things youre doing to sort of address cancellation rates over the medium to long term, maybe you bring them back into sort of a normative state tax.
Yeah.
Hi, Eric.
We believe that the.
Pricing in the marketplace continues to drift up although not as quickly as it did before.
If you look pre COVID-19, we generally saw a drift up in the price points that providers charge, both as a function of market maturity as well as developing their own reputation on the platform.
That drift up in price has been somewhat counteracted by market mix, yes.
If we expand more into geographies.
That are less developed and have lower cost of living does may have lower price points, but when you look within service lines and with end markets, There's a pretty clear drift up.
We do believe that the overall improvement in our cohorts. It is one of the things that contributes to our confidence in our ability to invest in both marketing and product.
It's nice to see the return to normal almost with regards to our cohorts just improving year over year.
We think part of that improvement gets automatically funneled back into our marketing because it can increase what we're willing to spend for a new customer without any change to our earn back period, our LTV to CAC ratio.
But we can also invest some of it and product as well.
We have a longer term view, but we don't expect the pricing changes could be so material that that would materially change how we're approaching our fixed cost structure.
Eric I'll take your question on the cancellation rate.
So a couple of quarters ago I brought up.
Product enhancement that we've rolled out and has been burning down with time and Thats what that.
The ability for providers to be flexible or adjust our cancellation rate policies.
We've continued to see the adoption of that tick up about 25% of providers on the platform have now opted in correct. A three day cancelation rate policy, a little bit more aggressive that's up about 400 basis points year over year, So thats continuing to burn and.
We also look for other opportunities.
Make make it more known for pet parents as Theyre looking at.
Whether or not a provider has a higher level of last minute cancellations on their side. So we are doing things to make it more rvs.
Users of the platform to understand cancellation rate dynamics, and we're seeing that play out with time.
Here in Q3, we did see some ebbs and flow with regards to illness ways.
During this quarter, we saw our cancellation rates not be as affected as in past quarters. So we do see some normalization taking place relative to illness.
But we think with time, our cancellation rates could probably continue to drift down.
Great. Thank you.
Okay.
Thank you.
Again, one moment please for our next question.
Our next question will come from Tom White of D. A Davidson and company. Your line is open.
Great. Good evening, Thanks for taking my questions. Two if I could I guess first I think there were some comment maybe from you earn about LTV for customers acquired in the quarter or kind of approaching all time Records I was hoping you could just kind of unpack some of the drivers there and then second on.
I'm curious about booking windows, one of the big Otas talked about some expansion of the booking windows on their recent call.
And seeing kind of a strong pipeline of of travel booked.
Maybe for <unk>.
Sorry, I, just kind of the first quarter, but just curious to hear your thoughts on.
Hyphen generally better visibility over the next several months.
Hi, Tom I'll take the first question and then hand, it over to Charlie for the second one.
The Ltvs for this quarter were driven by a couple of things. The first is the fact that we've seen some moderation of the cancellation rates that means that our realized value per customer.
Crews and we've also seen a minor increase in the bookings per customer on a year over year basis. If you compare the first.
Nine months of this year versus the nine months of last year.
A little bit more pronounced in the daytime services historically, the daytime services are capable of much higher frequency in the overnight services people may take only a handful of trips a year, but if you're using doggy daycare walking you can use that a lot more frequently.
So the fact that we've seen it a little bit higher increase there is also positive.
The overall amount of pricing that is.
Driven the LTV expansion. This year is probably fair to say less than.
The portion that it was last year.
Hey, Tom with regards to booking window. There is no major changes in our end to report our overnight services continued to be booked about three weeks in advance and our daytime services continued to be booked about a week in advance.
Okay. Thank you I appreciate the color. Thanks.
Thank you.
Again to ask a question. Please press star one on your phone and wait for your name to be announced to withdraw. Your question. Please press star one again standby as we compile the Q&A roster.
And one moment please for our next question.
Yeah.
Our next question will come from the line of Cory Carpenter of Jpmorgan. Your line is open.
Hey, thanks.
Your line for Charlie and one for you hearing Charlie could you just talk to do you see any impact to bookings in October around some of the political events, whether in the U S or in Europe or could you just talk about.
Could you you have exposure there and then secondly on the bright Horizons partnership could you just give us an update on how that's going and any lessons learned in terms of maybe partnerships you could go from the future. Thank you.
Hey, Corey this is Brent I'll think I'll take both of those.
On the political events, we have not seen anything sort of hit our radar screen in terms of volume impacts that had been noticeable.
Anytime there is something that is going on or whether there's a weather event in florida or theirs.
Political.
Event somewhere in the world, sometimes you can see small things, but nothing that is represented a trend or.
Our is reportable the bright horizons partnership you know not a lot to report in terms of status. We continue the partnership continues to exist we continue to be proud of them as partners.
We continue to.
Acquiring re acquire customers through that partnership we do with there are themes around.
For us that have emerged around.
The occasion, which the Rover offer us.
As surface. It also.
The.
The audiences that we're getting in front of it we think we can learn from them, but in terms of the.
<unk> of those other partnerships nothing to report yet.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Okay.
Im seeing no further questions in the queue I would now like to turn the conference back to the CEO Erin S easterly for closing remarks.
Thank you all for joining our call today, we're pleased with the performance of the business this quarter and we're really excited about what's to come.
Have a wonderful day everyone.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating you may now disconnect and have a pleasant day.
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