Q4 2023 Enbridge Inc Earnings Call
Rebecca Morley: Good morning, and welcome to the Enbridge fourth quarter and year-end 2023 financial results conference. My name is Rebecca Morley, and I'm the Vice President of the Investor Relations Team. Joining me this morning are Greg Ebel, President and CEO, Pat Murray, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and the heads of each of our business units, Colin Grending, Liquid Pipelines, Cynthia Hansen, Gas Transmission and Midstream, Michelle Herodance, Gas Distribution and Storage, and Matthew Ackman, Renewable Power. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.
Good morning, and welcome to the Enbridge fourth quarter and year end 2023 financial results Conference call. My name is Rebecca Morley and I'm, the Vice President of Investor Relations team joining.
Speaker Change: Joining me. This morning are Greg Evo, President and CEO, Pat Murray Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and the heads of each of our business units all in granting liquids pipelines.
Speaker Change: Thea Hansen gas transmission, and midstream Michel inheritance gas distribution and storage and Matthew Ackman renewable power.
Speaker Change: At this time all participants are in a listen only mode.
Rebecca Morley: Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session for the investment community. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press the star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the pound key. Please note that this conference call is being recorded. As usual, this call is being webcast, and I encourage those listening on the phone to follow along with the supporting slides. We'll try to keep the call to roughly one hour, and in order to answer as many questions as possible, we will be limiting the questions to one plus a single follow-up, if necessary.
Speaker Change: During the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session for the investment community. If you would like to ask a question. During this time simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question press. The pound key. Please note that this conference call is being recorded.
Speaker Change: As per usual this call is being webcast and I encourage those listening on the phone to follow along with the supporting slides.
Speaker Change: We will try to keep the call to roughly one hour and in order to answer as many questions as possible, we will be limiting the questions to one plus a single follow up if necessary.
Rebecca Morley: We'll be prioritizing questions from the investment community, so if you're a member of the media, please direct your inquiries to our communications team, who will be happy to respond. As always, our investor relations team will be available following the call for any follow-up questions. On to slide 2, where I'll remind you that we'll be referring to forward-looking information in today's presentation and Q&A. By its nature, this information contains forecast assumptions and expectations about future outcomes, which are subject to the risks and uncertainties outlined here and discussed more fully in our public disclosure filing. We will also be referring to non-GAAP measures summarized below. And with that, I'll turn it over to Greg Ebel. Well, thanks very much, Rebecca, and good morning, everyone.
Speaker Change: We'll be prioritizing questions from the investment community. So if you remember of the media. Please direct your inquiries to our communications team, who will be happy to respond.
Speaker Change: As always our Investor relations team will be available following the call for any follow up questions.
Speaker Change: Onto slide two where I'll remind you that we'll be referring to forward looking information on today's presentation and Q&A by its nature. This information contains forecasts assumptions and expectations about future outcomes, which are subject to the risks and uncertainties outlined here and discussed more fully in our public disclosure.
Speaker Change: Finally, well.
Speaker Change: Well also be referring to non-GAAP measures summarized below and with that I'll turn it over to Greg evil.
Greg Evo: Well, thanks, very much Rebecca and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining US again I am pleased to be here today to recap a record fourth quarter and 2023 results throughout the year. The Enbridge team worked hard to execute on our strategic priorities and ensure enbridge remains the first choice for energy delivery in North America.
Greg Ebel: Thanks for joining us again. I'm pleased to be here today to recap a record fourth quarter and 2023 results. Throughout the year, the Enbridge team worked hard to execute on our strategic priorities and ensure Enbridge remains the first choice for energy delivery in North America and beyond. These efforts further enhanced our long-term value proposition, which we'll talk about today, along with providing you an update on our business. Pat will then walk you through our financial performance, our capital allocation priorities, and our outlook.
Greg Evo: Beyond.
Greg Evo: These efforts further enhanced our long term value proposition, which we'll talk about today, along with providing you an update on our businesses.
Greg Evo: Pat will then walk you through our financial performance, our capital allocation priorities and our outlook and that's always the enbridge team will be available to answer any questions. You may have at the end of the presentation.
Greg Ebel: And as always, the Enbridge team will be available to answer any questions you may have at the end of the presentation. You know, folks, I'm really proud of the Enbridge team for all its achievements in 2023. We met our financial guidance for the 18th straight year and once again exceeded the midpoint for both EBITDA and DCF per share, demonstrating the low-risk, predictable nature of our business. Sustainably returning capital to shareholders remains a key priority, and our investors are benefiting from that as we increased our dividend by 3.1% this year, marking our 29th consecutive annual increase. Our debt to EBITDA, including the pre-funding, was 4.1 times, leaving ample balance sheet room in preparation for the closing of the U.S. gas utility acquisitions in 2024. In addition to the outstanding financial performance, we had an equally impressive year operationally. Enbridge employees matched our best ever company safety performance.
Greg Evo: Folks I'm really proud of the Enbridge team for all of its achievements in 2023, we met our financial guidance for the 18th straight year and once again exceeded the mid point for both EBITDA and DCF per share demonstrating the low risk predictable nature of our business.
Patrick Murray: Sustainably returning capital to shareholders remains a key priority and our investors are benefiting from that as we increased our dividend by three 1% this year, marking our 29th consecutive annual increase.
Patrick Murray: Our debt to EBITDA, including the pre funding was $4 one times, leaving ample balance sheet room in preparation for the closing of the U S gas utility acquisitions in 2024 in.
Patrick Murray: In addition to the outstanding financial performance, we had an equally impressive year operationally.
Patrick Murray: Enbridge employees matched our best ever company safety performance, we had high utilization rates across our systems and set record throughput on the mainline gray oak and at our Ingleside export facility.
Greg Ebel: We had high utilization rates across our systems and set record throughputs on the mainline, Grey Oak, and at our Ingleside export facility. We also concluded open seasons on Flanagan South, Southern Lights, and Algonquin Gas Pipeline and are about to initiate an open season for the expanded capacity on the Grey Oak Pipeline, which we expect to be very positively received. On the execution front, we filed the mainline tolling agreement with unanimous customer approval with the Canadian Energy Regulator and expect approval in the coming months. The settlement we filed is consistent with the terms we outlined for you in May and is a win-win-win for the customers, the industry, and for Enbridge. And I'll touch on that more later in the presentation.
Patrick Murray: We also concluded open seasons on Flanagan, South Southern lights, and Algonquin gas pipeline and are about to initiate an open season for the expanded capacity on gray oak pipeline, which we expect to be very positively received on.
On the execution front, we filed with unanimous customer approval the mainline tolling agreement with the Canadian energy regulator and expect approval in the coming months.
Patrick Murray: The settlement, we filed is consistent with the terms we outlined for you and me and is a win win win for the customers for industry and for Enbridge and I'll touch on that more later in the presentation.
Greg Ebel: The sale of our interest in Alliance and Oxfable continues our track record of recycling capital at attractive multiples and puts us in a position where we have largely completed the funding for our utility acquisition. I'm extremely proud of the organic growth projects we announced in 2023, securing an additional $10 billion to our growth backlog, which will help to drive low-risk returns to shareholders for years to come. We announced the acquisition of three gas utilities, which will create the largest integrated gas utility in North America, as well as several accretive tuck-in acquisitions in other business sectors. These transactions will enhance our service offering to customers and blend and extend our growth for years to come. Lastly, we placed over $2 billion of growth capital into service, primarily through our GTM modernization and utility growth capital programs.
Patrick Murray: The sale of our interest in alliance and Ox table continues our track record of recycling capital at attractive multiples and put us in a position where we have largely completed the funding for our utility acquisitions.
Patrick Murray: I'm extremely proud of the organic growth projects, we announced in 2023, securing an additional 10 billion to our growth backlog, which will help to drive low risk returns to shareholders for years to come.
Patrick Murray: We announced the acquisition of three gas utilities, which will create the largest integrated gas utility in North America as well as several accretive tuck in acquisitions and other business units.
Patrick Murray: These transactions will enhance our service offering to customers and blend and extend our growth for years to come.
Patrick Murray: Lastly, we placed over $2 billion of growth capital into service, primarily through our GT, a modernization and utility growth capital programs of.
Greg Ebel: Of course, sustainability continues to be a key component of our license to operate. Last May, we published our 22nd Annual Sustainability Report, which highlights our industry-leading performance on environmental, social, and governance issues, as well as progress on our Indigenous Reconciliation Action Plan. Today, I'm pleased to report that we've already met 10 of those commitments, with continued efforts on the remaining elements. When it comes to emission reductions, our approach continues to be leading edge, not bleeding edge.
Patrick Murray: Of course sustainability continues to be a key component of our license to operate.
Patrick Murray: Last may we published our 20 <unk> annual sustainability report, which highlights our industry, leading performance on environmental social and governance issues as well as progress on our indigenous reconciliation action plan.
Patrick Murray: Today I am pleased to report that we've already met 10 of those commitments with continued efforts on the remaining elements.
Patrick Murray: When it comes to emission reductions our approach continues to be leading edge not bleeding edge and our recent R&D investments as well as the NGO side Blue ammonia project. We're partnering with you are on are strategically aligned with this philosophy.
Greg Ebel: And our recent R&G investments, as well as the Ingleside Blue Ammonia project we're partnering with Yaron, are strategically aligned with this philosophy. Before I move on to business, I want to take a moment to highlight our record financial performance. 2023 EBITDA is up 6% from last year, primarily due to the strong performance from our liquids business unit. DCF per share is up 1%, even after absorbing the dilution impact from the upfront $4.6 billion equity issuance in September to finance the utility acquisition.
Patrick Murray: Before I move on to the business I want to take a moment to highlight our record financial performance two.
Patrick Murray: 2023, EBITDA is up 6% from last year, primarily due to the strong performance from our liquids business unit.
Patrick Murray: DCF per share is up 1%, even after absorbing the dilution impact from the upfront $4 6 billion dollar equity issuance in September to finance the utility acquisitions.
Greg Ebel: And our balance sheet is well positioned ahead of the closings of the gas utilities at 4.1 times that of EBITDA. All together, another excellent year of financial performance ahead of the midpoint of our guidance and in line with our multi-year outlook. Paddle will walk you through the main drivers of the strong fourth quarter short.
Patrick Murray: And our balance sheet is well positioned ahead of the closings of the gas utilities at four one times debt to EBITDA.
Patrick Murray: Altogether another excellent year of financial performance ahead of the midpoint of our guidance and in line with our multiyear outlook Pat will walk you through the main drivers of the strong fourth quarter shortly.
Greg Ebel: As we reflect on 2023, I want to remind everyone why our business is a first-choice investment opportunity. Our assets generate strong, reliable, and growing cash flows that are underpinned by low-risk commercial frameworks and a stable balance. We consistently and sustainably return capital to shareholders, and late last year, we announced our 29th consecutive annual dividend increase.
Patrick Murray: As we reflect on 2023 I want to remind everyone why our business as a first choice investment opportunity.
Patrick Murray: <unk> generated strong reliable and growing cash flows that are underpinned by low risk commercial frameworks and a stable balance sheet, we consistently and sustainably return capital to shareholders and late last year announced our 29th consecutive annual dividend increase.
Greg Ebel: 2023 was a hallmark year for growth at Enbridge, with approximately $23 billion of announced acquisitions and $10 billion of new projects adding both greater visibility and duration to our growth outlook. And consistent with our vision, we continue to develop Enbridge's lower carbon strategy, benefiting the enterprise and supporting an appropriately paced global energy transition. Enbridge is operating from a position of strength, and its predictable cash flow growth, low business risk, and strong total return profile make it a first-choice investment opportunity. So let's take a minute and revisit the low-risk nature of Enbridge's business. As I mentioned earlier, 2023 marked the 18th consecutive year of meeting our financial guidance. And, as indicated up front, we achieved this without needing to adjust the bought deal equity issuance from our financial results.
Patrick Murray: 2023 was a hallmark year for growth at Enbridge was approximately $23 billion of announced acquisitions and 10 billion of new projects, adding both greater visibility and duration to our growth outlook.
Patrick Murray: And consistent with our vision, we continue to develop Enbridge is lower carbon strategy benefiting the enterprise and supporting and appropriately paced global energy transition.
And bridge is operating from a position of strength and its predictable cash flow growth low business risk and strong total return profile. It makes it a first choice investment opportunity. So, let's take a minute and revisit the low risk nature of Enbridge as businesses.
Patrick Murray: As I mentioned earlier 2023 marked the 18th consecutive year of meeting our financial guidance.
Patrick Murray: And as indicated upfront we achieved this without needing to adjust the bought deal equity issuance from our financial results.
Greg Ebel: 2023 showcased the predictability of our business amid continued geopolitical instability, persistent inflation, and rising interest rates. This is as a result of 98% of Enbridge's earnings being generated from either cost of service or take-or-pay contract assets. Our debt portfolio is less than 10% exposed to floating rate volatility, our customer base is over 95% investment grade, and 80% of our EBITDA is earned from assets with protection against inflation. We are rated triple B plus by all rating agencies and remain committed to our long-held leverage target of four and a half times to five. Our business risk is sector leading amongst our midstream peers, and the gas utilities acquisition will only enhance that. Now let's spend a few minutes on the key accomplishments of each of the business units, and we'll start with liquid. Liquid's pipeline really delivered record utilization once again in 2023. The mainline transported over 3.2 million barrels of oil per day during the fourth quarter and averaged 3.1 million barrels of oil per day for the full year.
Patrick Murray: 2023 showcase the predictability of our business amid continued geopolitical instability persistent inflation and rising interest rates. This is as a result of the 98% of Enbridge is earnings being generated from either cost of service or take or pay contract assets our debt portfolio is less than 10.
Patrick Murray: 10% exposed to floating rate volatility our customer base is over 95% investment grade and the 80% of our EBITDA is earned from assets with protection against inflation well.
Patrick Murray: We're rated triple B plus by all rating agencies and remain committed to our long held leverage target of four five times to five times, our business risk is sector, leading amongst our midstream peers and the gas utilities acquisition will only enhance that now.
Speaker Change: Now, let's spend a few minutes on the key accomplishments of each of the business units and we will start with liquids.
Speaker Change: <unk> pipeline really delivered record utilization once again in 2023.
Speaker Change: The mainline transported over three 2 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter and to average $3 1 million barrels per day for the full year.
Greg Ebel: These numbers are a new all-time high and result from our team's continuous efforts to optimize our pipeline network. Growing production out of the Permian Basin and increased export demand continue to draw record crude oil volumes through our integrated Grey Oak Pipeline and, of course, Ingleside Export Terminal. We also concluded an oversubscribed Binding Open Season on Southern Lights, which will lock up 165,000 barrels per day of existing capacity that was coming up for renewal in 2025.
Speaker Change: These numbers are a new all time high and result from our team's continuous efforts to optimize our pipeline network growth.
Speaker Change: Growing production out of the Permian Basin and increased export demand continues to drive record crude oil volumes through our integrated Gray oak pipeline and of course Ingleside export terminal.
Speaker Change: We also concluded an oversubscribed binding open season on southern lights, which will lock up 165000 barrels per day of existing capacity that was coming up for renewal in 2025.
Greg Ebel: We filed our mainline tolling settlement with the Canadian Energy Regulator in December and expect an expedited review process so that our customers will receive the competitive and responsive service they are accustomed to. Enbridge will earn attractive risk-adjusted returns, and the mainline will continue to feed North American and global markets with a long-term source of safe, secure, and affordable energy. When approved, the mainline will continue to earn an attractive risk-adjusted return on equity between 11% and 14.5%. The agreement also includes customer support for Line 5 capital expenditures, ensuring that this critical piece of infrastructure remains operational, and Enbridge can continue to deliver reliable and affordable energy to Michigan, Ohio, and Eastern Canada. The settlement was unanimously approved by the representative shipper group, and we're grateful for the support from our customers.
Speaker Change: We filed our mainline tolling settlement with the Canadian energy regulator in December and expect an expedited review process, our customers will receive the competitive and responsive service. They are accustomed to enbridge will earn attractive risk adjusted returns in the mainline will continue to feed North American and global Mark.
Speaker Change: That's with a long term source of safe secure and affordable energy.
Speaker Change: When approved the mainline will continue to earn an attractive risk adjusted return on equity between 11% and 14, 5%.
Speaker Change: The agreement also includes customer support for line five capital expenditures, ensuring that this critical piece of infrastructure remains operational and Enbridge can continue to deliver reliable and affordable energy to Michigan, Ohio in Eastern Canada.
The settlement was unanimously approved by the representative shipper group and we're grateful for the support from our customers.
Greg Ebel: Downstream of the mainline, we successfully concluded the 110,000 barrel per day open season on Flanagan South Pipeline. This secures full-path transportation from Western Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast, ensuring the mainline remains well-utilized. Earlier in 2023, we sanctioned the initial phase of the Enbridge-Houston oil terminal. This greenfield project, located at the terminus of the Seaway pipeline, will provide shippers with 2.7 million barrels of premier storage that is accessible by the Houston refinery.
Speaker Change: Downstream of the mainline we successfully concluded the 110000 barrel per day open season on Flanagan South pipeline.
Speaker Change: This secures full path transportation from Western Canada to the U S Gulf coast, ensuring the mainline remains well utilized.
Speaker Change: Earlier in 2023, we sanctioned the initial phase of the Enbridge Houston oil terminal.
Speaker Change: This Greenfield project located at determined as of the Seaway pipeline will provide shippers with $2 7 million barrels of premier storage that is accessible by the Houston refineries.
Greg Ebel: In the Permian region, we're still planning to initiate an open season for the Grey Oak Pipeline in the coming months that will offer full-path export service from the Permian Basin all the way to our Ingleside dock. And on the low carbon front, we're progressing the feed engineering for a blue ammonia production facility at Ingleside. This potential investment highlights the value of existing and diversified infrastructure to the energy transition. The proposed facility will source feed gas from our Texas Eastern Gas Pipeline, and the associated emissions will be sequestered in a nearby carbon storage facility through our partnership with Oxy. All of which further underlines the value enhancement opportunities our integrated liquids, natural gas, and lower carbon platform offers customers and investors. Finally, we continue to advance the technical evaluation work for the planned carbon capture utilization and storage hub in the Wabamin area.
Speaker Change: In the Permian region, we're still planning to initiate an open season for the Gray oak pipeline in the coming months that will offer a full path exports service from the Permian Basin, all the way to our Ingleside docs.
Speaker Change: And on the low carbon front were progressing the feed engineering for a blue ammonia production facility at Ingalls side. This.
Speaker Change: This potential investment highlights the value of existing and diversified infrastructure to the energy transition.
Proposed facility will source feed gas from our Texas Eastern gas pipeline and the associated emissions will be sequestered in a nearby carbon storage facility through our partnership with Oxy all of which further underlines the value enhancement opportunities are integrated liquids natural gas and lower carbon platform offers.
Speaker Change: <unk> and investors.
Speaker Change: Finally, we continue to advance the technical evaluation work for the planned carbon capture utilization and storage hub in the Washington area. So let's move on to gas transmission.
Greg Ebel: So let's move on to gas transmission. Starting in Canada, we closed the acquisition of Aitkin Creek Gas Storage, a 77 BCF working capacity facility in British Columbia, which is uniquely positioned to support local demand and upcoming Canadian LNG exports. And in December, we sold our interest in Alliance and Oxfable for proceeds of $3.1 billion, continuing our track record of exposing value for shareholders through ongoing capital recycling.
Speaker Change: Starting in Canada, we closed the acquisition of Aitken Creek gas storage are 77 Bcf working capacity facility in British Columbia, which is uniquely positioned to support local demand and upcoming Canadian LNG exports.
Speaker Change: In December we sold our interest in alliance and ox Sable for proceeds of $3 $1 billion, continuing our track record of servicing value for shareholders through ongoing capital recycling.
Greg Ebel: This transaction reduces our commodity price exposure, and proceeds help to finance the upcoming utility acquisition. We've also refined our engineering estimates for the 300 million cubic feet per day expansion of the T-South gas pipeline in British Columbia. The total project is estimated to cost $4 billion, up from $3.6 billion originally. The increased costs are based on recent Class IV estimates, which include extensive engineering analysis, community consultation, and also lessons learned from recently completed projects in the region.
Speaker Change: This transaction reduces our commodity price exposure and proceeds helped us finance the upcoming utility acquisitions.
Speaker Change: We've also refined our engineering estimates for the 300 million cubic feet per day expansion of the T South gas pipeline in British Columbia.
Speaker Change: The total project is estimated to cost $4 billion up from $3 $6 billion originally.
Speaker Change: The increased costs are based on recent class four estimates, which includes extensive engineering analysis community consultation and also includes lessons learned from recently completed projects in the region.
Greg Ebel: Of course, before proceeding, we will ensure that the full investment and return is recoverable through our cost of service framework on the West Coast Pipeline. In the U.S., we continue to extend our LNG service offering as we progress the Rio Bravo pipeline and the Venice extension pipeline, which we expect to place into service later this year, including an open season on the Algonquin pipeline system for additional gas delivery to New England. We're pleased with the results and are currently evaluating potential options to satisfy our customers' needs. In March, we acquired Tres Palacios, which adds 35 BCF of working gas storage and enhances our customer service offering in the area.
Of course before proceeding we will ensure that the full investment and return is recoverable through our cost of service framework on the West Coast pipeline.
Speaker Change: In the U S. We continue to extend our LNG service offering as we progressed, the Rio Bravo pipeline and the Venice extension pipeline, which we expect to place into service later this year.
Speaker Change: We've concluded an open season on the Algonquin pipeline system for additional gas delivery to new England and we are pleased with the results and are currently evaluating potential options to satisfy our customers' needs.
Speaker Change: In March we acquired <unk>, which adds 35 Bcf of working gas storage and enhances our customer service offering in the area.
Greg Ebel: This facility is a key piece of infrastructure that serves local gas fired power generation, LNG exports, and pipeline capacity to Mexico. Finally, we announced the acquisition of several high-quality operating landfill waste to R&G assets in Texas and Arkansas from Morrow Renewables. These investments align with Enbridge's utility-like cash flow framework and are underpinned by long-term off-take contracts. The landfills we acquired are expected to double in size by 2040 with minimal capital investment, which will supplement our growth for years to come.
Speaker Change: This facility is a key piece of infrastructure that serves local gas fired power generation LNG exports and pipeline capacity to Mexico.
Speaker Change: Finally, we announced the acquisition of several high quality operating landfill waste R&D assets in Texas, and Arkansas for Morro renewables.
These investments align with Enbridge as utility like cash flow framework and are underpinned by long term offtake contracts. The landfills. We acquired are expected to double in size by 2040 with minimal capital investment, which will supplement our growth for years to come.
Michelle Herodance: The Morrill Renewables investment aligns well with our corporate strategy and supports our energy transition and growth expectations. Turning to gas distribution and storage, Enbridge Gas had a strong year. We added 46,000 new customers, which was ahead of expectations.
Speaker Change: Moral renewables investment aligns well with our corporate strategy and supports our energy transition and growth expectations.
Speaker Change: Turning to gas distribution and storage Enbridge gas had a strong year. We added 46000, new customers, which was ahead of expectations, we invested $1 2 billion modernizing and expanding the distribution network during 'twenty three to support the growing needs for reliable and affordable energy in the province.
Michelle Herodance: We invested $1.2 billion in modernizing and expanding the distribution network during 2023 to support the growing needs for reliable and affordable energy in the province. In December, the Ontario Energy Board issued its decision on our rebasing application for 2024, and overall, we're not pleased with the outcome as it doesn't align with the provincial government's policy on the future of natural gas within Ontario, nor the affordability and reliability of gas for our residential and industrial customers. While the decision itself isn't material to Enbridge's 24 guidance, we filed a Notice of Appeal with the Divisional Court and a Notice of Motion with the OEB regarding several aspects of the decision that we believe are inconsistent and amount to an error in law.
Speaker Change: In December the Ontario Energy Board issued its decision on our Rebased <unk> application for 2024 and overall, we're not pleased with the outcome as it doesn't align with the provincial government's policy on the future of natural gas within Ontario, nor the affordability and reliability of gas for our residential and industrial customer.
Speaker Change: <unk>.
Speaker Change: While the decision itself isn't material to Enbridge is 24 guidance, we filed a notice of appeal with the divisional court and a notice of motion with the <unk> regarding several aspects of the decision that we believe are inconsistent and amount to an error in la.
Michelle Herodance: In the meantime, we will continue to focus on delivering safe and reliable energy for our customers in Ontario. Now moving to the gas utility acquisitions in the U.S., we continue to be very excited about the transaction, including the fact that it was executed at a historically attractive valuation of 1.3 times the forward rate base. The assets all operate in supportive and transparent jurisdictions and will add low-risk regulated earnings and quick-cycle rate-based investment opportunities to our backlog.
Speaker Change: In the meantime, we will continue to focus on delivering safe and reliable energy for our customers in Ontario.
Speaker Change: Now moving to the gas utility acquisitions in the U S. We continue to be very excited about the transaction, including the fact that it was executed at a historically attractive valuation of one three times the forward rate base.
Speaker Change: The assets all operated supportive and transparent jurisdictions and will add low risk regulated earnings and quick cycle rate based investment opportunities to our backlog.
Greg Ebel: As you can see on the slide, we've pre-funded approximately 85% of the aggregate purchase price since we announced the transaction in September last year, and all three are on track to close in 2024. So with that, let's jump into renewables. Our scale and diversification and investing approach to renewables allows us to continue to find attractive opportunities, even as returns compress for many across the sector. In Germany, we acquired an additional interest in the Hohi Sea and Albatross offshore wind farms. These are high-quality operating assets that we know well, and the transaction is immediately accretive to our DCF. In France, we continue to approach the commercial operation dates for both FECOMP and Provence Grand Large in early 2024, and Calvados is scheduled to come into service in 2025.
Speaker Change: As you can see on the slide we've pre funded approximately 85% of the aggregate purchase price since we announced the transaction in September last year and all three are on track to close in 2024.
So with that let's jump into the renewables are scale and diversification and investing approach to renewables allows us to continue to find attractive opportunities even as returns compressed for many across the sector.
Speaker Change: In Germany, we acquired additional interest in the whole you see an albatross offshore wind farms. These are high quality operating assets that we know well and the transaction is immediately accretive to our DCF.
Speaker Change: In France, we continue to approach the commercial operation dates for both comp and Provence Grande large in early 2024.
Speaker Change: <unk> is scheduled to come into service in 2025.
Greg Ebel: Enbridge was also awarded the right to develop a 1 gigawatt offshore wind farm in Normandy, which we expect could enter service around 2030. We'll be developing that wind farm with EDF, continuing a partnership of successful developments in the renewable space. And then last November, we extended the partnership onshore in North America, where we jointly are constructing and operating the 577-megawatt Fox World solar facility in Ohio. The initial phase of this project generates about 150 megawatts and was placed into service in December 2023. Our portfolio of late-stage onshore development projects continues to approach the construction ready phase, with expected 2025 in-service dates. And finally, we also placed three solar self-power projects into service during the year, adding some 30 megawatts of capacity and reducing our mainline emissions. So now I'll pass it off to Pat to walk you through our financial results. Thanks, Greg. And good morning, everyone.
Speaker Change: Enbridge was also awarded the right to develop a one gigawatt offshore wind farm in Normandy, which we expect could enter service around 2030.
Speaker Change: We will be developing that wind farm with EDF, continuing a partnership of successful developments in the renewable space and then last November we extended the partnership onshore in North America, where we jointly are constructing and operating the 577 megawatt Fox squirrel solar facility in Ohio.
Speaker Change: The initial phase of this project generates about 150 megawatts and was placed into service in December 2023.
Speaker Change: Our portfolio of late stage onshore development projects continues to approach the construction ready phase with expected 2025 in service States and.
Speaker Change: And finally, we also placed three solar self power projects into service during the year, adding some 30 megawatts of capacity and reducing our mainline emissions footprint.
Speaker Change: So now I'll pass it off to Pat to walk through our financial results.
Patrick Murray: Thanks, Greg and good morning, everyone I'm very pleased to present, a record quarter and full year financial results here at Enbridge and as Greg mentioned earlier, we exceeded the midpoint of our 2023, EBITDA and DCF per share guidance, representing our 18th straight year of achieving or beating our outlook year over year fourth quarter EBITDA was up over 5% and D C.
Patrick Murray: I'm very pleased to present a record quarter and full year of financial results here at Enbridge. And, as Greg mentioned earlier, we exceeded the midpoint of our 2023 EBITDA and DCF per share guidance, representing our 18th straight year of achieving or beating our guidance. Year-over-year, fourth-quarter EBITDA was up over 5%, and DCF is up 3%. However, our DCF per share is down 2%, including the dilution related to the de-risking of the financing plan for the gas utility acquisition. These quarterly results cap off a fantastic year for Enbridge and are underpinned by high utilisation across all our systems. For liquids, our mainline transported a record 3.2 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter. Our mid-continent and Gulf Coast assets also delivered strong operational results, with Ingleside and Grey Oak setting new quarterly volume records. However, these record volumes were partially offset by the lower mainline toll which took place on July 1.
Patrick Murray: Jeff is up 3%, our DCF per share is down 2%, including the dilution related to the derisking of the financing plan for the gas utility acquisition.
Patrick Murray: These quarterly results cap off a fantastic year for Enbridge and are underpinned by our high utilization across all of our systems and liquids our mainline transported a record $3 2 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter, our mid continent and Gulf Coast assets also delivered strong operational results with Ingalls item Gray oak setting new quarterly volume.
Patrick Murray: Records.
Patrick Murray: These record volumes were partially offset by the lower mainline toll which took place on July one.
Patrick Murray: Gas transmission is down marginally over the quarter due to the timing of revenue recognition related to the Texas Eastern case in the fourth quarter of last year. EGI continues to benefit from higher distribution rates from its incentive rate mechanism despite a mild winter, negatively impacting fourth quarter results by about $30 million compared to normal conditions. Our renewable business improved during the quarter primarily due to the increased interest in our German offshore wind assets, which closed in early November. Energy services results improved compared to the same quarter last year due to the expiry of transportation commitments, as we have noted in prior quarters, and less pronounced backwardation in commodity markets. Realized foreign exchange head losses were lower in the fourth quarter as our hedge rate was right around the spot rate of 135. Below the line in DCF per share, and as expected, higher interest expense, the effect of the bought deal I mentioned earlier, and lower distributions and excess earnings from our equity investments partially offset the higher EBITDA and operations this quarter.
Patrick Murray: Gas transmission is down marginally over the quarter due to the timing of revenue recognition related to the Texas Eastern case in the fourth quarter of last year.
Patrick Murray: <unk> continues to benefit from higher distribution rates for <unk> incentive rate mechanism. Despite a mild winter negatively impacting fourth quarter results by about $30 million compared to normal conditions.
Patrick Murray: Our renewable business improved during the quarter, primarily from the increased interest in our German offshore wind assets, which closed in early November.
Patrick Murray: Energy services results improved compared to the same quarter last year due to the expiry of transportation commitments as we have noted in prior quarters and less pronounced backwardation in commodity markets.
Realized foreign exchange hedge losses were lower in the fourth quarter as our hedge rate was right around the spot rate of $1 35.
Patrick Murray: Below the line in DCF per share and as expected higher interest expense the effect of the bought deal I mentioned earlier and lower distributions in excess of earnings from our equity investments, partially offset by higher EBITDA in operations this quarter.
Patrick Murray: With that, let's quickly review the year ahead. I'm pleased to reaffirm Enbridge's 2024 EBITDA guidance range of $16.6 billion to $17.2 billion and DCF per share guidance of $540 to $580 per share. This represents 4% EBITDA growth versus a 2023 guidance midpoint. As a reminder, our 2024 guidance is set on the base business, excluding the EBITDA, CAPEX, and associated financing impact of the U.S. gas utilities expected to close throughout this year. The reason we chose to issue guidance excluding the acquisition is that we want to showcase the strength of our base business and how it is performing relative to the growth outlook we shared at our Investor Day last March.
Speaker Change: With that let's quickly review the year ahead.
Speaker Change: I am pleased to reaffirm <unk> 2020 for EBIT guidance range of $16 6 billion to $17 2 billion and DCF per share guidance of $5 40 to $5 80 per share.
Speaker Change: This represents 4% EBITDA growth versus the 2023 guidance midpoint.
Speaker Change: As a reminder, our 2024 guidance is set on the base business, excluding the EBITDA capex and associated financing impact of the U S gas utilities expect it to close throughout this year.
Speaker Change: The reason we chose to issue guidance. Excluding the acquisition is that we want to showcase the strength of our base business and how it is performing relative to the growth outlook, we shared at our Investor Day last March.
Speaker Change: There is some uncertainty around the timing of the close for the <unk>, but we do expect some level of contribution from all three utilities this year and I'll discuss that on the next slide.
Patrick Murray: There's some uncertainty around the timing of the close for the LDCs, but we do expect some level of contribution from all three utilities this year, and I'll discuss that on the next slide. There are a few key assumptions underpinning our 2024 guidance. Our 2024 mainline volume forecast is approximately 3 million barrels per day. This estimate was made using TMX's public and service date estimates when we released guidance. For reference, production on the main line rose throughout the fourth quarter, and our December throughput averaged 3.26 million barrels per day.
Speaker Change: There are a few key assumptions underpinning our 2024 guidance. Our 2024 mainline volume forecast is approximately 3 million barrels per day.
Estimate was struck using <unk> public in service date estimate when we released guidance for reference apportionment on the mainline rose throughout the fourth quarter and our December throughput averaged 326 million barrels per day today, we have more conviction than ever that the mainline will continue to be very well utilized for years to come.
Patrick Murray: Today we have more conviction than ever that the main line will continue to be very well utilized for years to come. We also included the sale of our interest in Alliant Sox Sable in the guidance we provided in November. As is practice at Enbridge, we've minimized our foreign exchange and interest rate exposure for the upcoming year. The U.S. dollar denominated DCF is almost entirely hedged at the 135 and less than 10% of our total debt portfolio exposed to interest rate volatility in 2024. Now let's look briefly at the EBIT implications from the expected closing of the gas utilities. We continue to expect staggered closures of the utilities throughout the year. Each will provide incremental contributions above our base business guidance. However, given that the timeline for regulatory approvals is fluid, we've omitted the associated incremental contributions from our guidance.
Speaker Change: We also included the sale of our interest in livestock Sable and the guidance we provided in November.
Speaker Change: As is practice at Enbridge, we've minimized our foreign exchange and interest rate exposure for the upcoming year U S. Dollar denominated DCF is almost entirely hedged at the $1 35, and less than 10% of our total debt portfolio exposed to interest rates volatility in 2024 now.
Speaker Change: Now, let's look briefly at the EBIT implications from the expected closing of the gas utilities.
Speaker Change: We continue to expect staggered closes of utilities throughout the year, each will provide incremental contributions above our base business guidance given that the timeline for regulatory approvals are fluid we've omitted the associated incremental contributions from our guidance that being said if the utilities closed on schedule, our overall EBITDA could exceed the upper band of.
Patrick Murray: That being said, if the utilities close on schedule, our overall EBITDA could exceed the upper band of the guidance range, while per-share metrics in 2024 will be impacted by the full year of share dilution. Now, let's turn over to our Secured Growth Outlook. Our Secured Growth Program sits at $24 billion.
Speaker Change: The guidance range, while per share metrics in 2024 will be impacted by the full year of share dilution.
Speaker Change: Let's turn over to our secured growth outlook.
Speaker Change: Our secured growth program, so it's a $24 billion.
Patrick Murray: New to the table this quarter is the addition of the Fox Squirrel Solar Phase II and the incremental capital for the T-South Sunrise expansion, as well as another year of utility growth and GTM modernization capital. In 2023, we added an additional $10 billion of new secured capital to our backlog, adding visibility and duration to our multi-year growth outlook, which I look forward to discussing more at Enbridge Day in March. We placed over $2 billion of organic capital into service, primarily from our utility growth program in Ontario and our GTM modernization program. With that, let's revisit Enbridge's capital allocation priorities before I turn the presentation back to Greg to wrap things up. Our approach to capital allocation is focused on maximizing shareholders' returns.
Speaker Change: New to the table. This quarter is the addition of the Fox squirrel solar phase II and the incremental capital for T cell Sunrise expansion.
As well as another year of utility growth in GTS modernization capital.
Speaker Change: In 2023, we added an additional $10 billion of new secured capital to our backlog, adding visibility and duration to our multi year growth outlook, which I look forward to discussing more at Enbridge day in March.
Speaker Change: We placed over $2 billion of organic capital into service, primarily from our utility growth program in Ontario, and our GTS modernization program.
Speaker Change: With that let's revisit enbridge as capital allocation priorities before I turn the presentation back to Greg to wrap things up.
Speaker Change: Our approach to capital allocation is focused on maximizing shareholders' return.
We're excited by all the opportunities ahead of us, but we're going to grow in a disciplined manner, while sticking to our leverage and payout targets Enbridge is fully committed to our leverage guardrails of four 5% to five times debt to EBITDA and we'll continue to operate within this range post the utility acquisitions with.
Patrick Murray: We're excited by all the opportunities ahead of us, but we're going to grow in a disciplined manner while sticking to our leverage and payout targets. Enbridge is fully committed to our leverage guardrails of 4.5 to 5 times debt to EBITDA and will continue to operate within this range post-utility acquisition. With the announced sale of Allianz Laxable in 2023, we continue our track record of successfully high-grading our capital and will continue to look for opportunities to recycle assets at attractive multiples. In November, we announced a 3.1% increase in the Enbridge dividend, our 29th consecutive annual increase.
Speaker Change: With the announced sale of Alliance Ox able in 2023, we continue our track record of successfully high grading our capital and we will continue to look for opportunities to recycle assets at attractive multiples in November we announced a three 1% increase to the enbridge dividend, our 29th consecutive annual increase.
Speaker Change: Our long held dividend payout policy is 60% to 70% of DCF and will continue to grow the dividend up to our medium term DCF per share growth.
Speaker Change: And with that I'll turn it back to you Greg.
Greg Evo: Well, thanks, very much Pat as I reflect on my first year, leading the team here at Enbridge, who are tasked with delivering on behalf of our investors I'm pretty pleased with how 2023 came in and extremely excited about 2024 and beyond.
Patrick Murray: Our long-held dividend payout policy is 60-70% of DCF and will continue to grow the dividend up to our medium-term DCF per share growth. And with that, I'll turn it back to you, Greg.
Greg Ebel: You know, as I reflect on my first year leading the team here at Enbridge, who are tasked with delivering on behalf of our investors, I'm pretty pleased with how 2023 came in and extremely excited about 2024 and beyond. The financial results from the businesses reached record levels, and the same was true of the operational results right across our business units, whether it was continuing to execute on our organic growth project. Picking up Tuck-In Assets Across Our Liquids, Gas Pipeline, and Renewables, We're reaching value-enhancing regulatory outcomes like the mainline toll settlement that serve our customers and investors. The team really delivered in 2023 and set up the company for continued long-term growth. We also continue to deliver record operational and safety results, which further underlines Enbridge's reputation as the first choice provider of energy logistics for all of our stakeholders.
Greg Evo: The financial results from the businesses reached record levels and the same was true of the operational results right across our business units.
Greg Evo: Whether it was continuing to execute on our organic growth projects picking up tuck in assets across our liquids gas pipeline and renewable systems or reaching value enhancing regulatory outcomes like the mainline total settlement that serve our customers and investors. The team really delivered in 2023 and set up the company for <unk>.
Continued long term growth.
Greg Evo: We also continued to deliver record operational and safety results, which further underlines enbridge as <unk> reputation as the first choice provider of energy logistics for all of our stakeholders and equally important we further diversified and extended our geographic reach and opportunity set in the natural gas utility.
Greg Evo: Business with a significant acquisition of three great gas utilities in growth regions of the U S, which will extend our growth aspirations through the decade.
Greg Ebel: And equally important, we further diversified and extended our geographic reach and opportunity set in the natural gas utility business with a significant acquisition of three great gas utilities in growth regions of the U.S., which will extend our growth aspirations through the decade. So, great job by the team on behalf of our investors and customers. I'm less pleased, of course, with the stock performance in 2023, yet very excited about its future. With growing earnings and dividends underpinned by not one, not two, but three of the top positions businesses of their kind in North America, Liquids Pipelines, Gas Transmission, and Gas Distribution, and a fourth business, Renewables, very prudently becoming a top player, we expect to deliver excellent returns for our investors.
Greg Evo: So great job by the team on behalf of our investors and customers.
Unless pleased of course with the stock performance in 2023, yet very excited about its future with growing earnings and dividends underpinned by not one not two but three of the top position businesses of their kind in North America liquids pipelines gas transmission and gas distribution and a fourth business.
Greg Evo: Renewables very prudently, becoming a top player we expect to deliver excellent returns for our investors.
Greg Evo: As a balanced view of energy transition and the key elements of that become increasingly clear to investors and policymakers alike. Enbridge is diversified and balanced portfolio looks increasingly like the first choice for investors and while I'm not predicting interest rates the inevitable easing of monetary policy will be.
Greg Ebel: As a balanced view of the energy transition and the key elements of that become increasingly clear to investors and policy makers alike, Enbridge's diversified and balanced portfolio looks increasingly like the first choice for investors. And while I'm not predicting interest rates, the inevitable easing of monetary policy will bring dividend yields on utility-like stocks such as Enbridge back into a more typical range relative to government bonds, with our prudent Capital Allocation Act. Strong commitment to the balance sheet, low risk, and growing earnings and dividends.
Greg Evo: Dividend yields on utility like stocks, such as Enbridge back into a more typical range relative to government bonds with our prudent capital allocation actions strong commitment to the balance sheet low risk and growing earnings and dividends, we will deliver long term value for our investors and serve our various stakeholders.
Greg Evo: Along the way with excellence.
Greg Evo: Pat and I, along with our four business unit leaders look forward to discussing our continued growth opportunities and this investment thesis at our upcoming Investor Day in New York on March six hope to see you there and now let's open the lines for your questions.
Operator: We will deliver long-term value for investors and serve our various stakeholders along the way with excellence. Pat and I, along with our four business unit leaders, look forward to discussing our continued growth opportunities and this investment at our upcoming Investor Day in New York in March. Hope to see you there, and now we'll open the lines for your questions. Please stand by while we prepare for our question and answer session. At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star, then the number 1 on your telephone keypad.
Speaker Change: Please standby, while we prepare for our question and answer session.
Speaker Change: At this time I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question Press Star then the number one on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from the line of Robert <unk> from <unk>.
Robert: CIBC capital markets. Your line is open.
Robert: Hey, good morning, Congratulations on the results. This question is probably better suited for Michelle I was wondering if you could characterize the progress youre, making towards regulatory approval for the U S utilities, and specifically can you comment on.
Robert Catellier: Your first question comes from the line of Robert Catellier from CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Hey, good morning, and congratulations on the results.
Speaker Change: We're trying to demonstrate a net benefit.
Michelle Herodance: This question is probably better suited for Michelle. I was wondering if you could characterize the progress you're making towards regulatory approval for U.S. utilities, and specifically, can you comment on where you're trying to demonstrate a net benefit? Can you provide your view on rate case stayout periods compared to other benefits that you might have as options to offer rate payers? Sure, so let me start just with regulatory approval. We have two out of the three federal regulatory approvals in hand, so CFIUS and HSR. We're waiting on the FCC for a couple of the utilities. We received North Carolina, I think, earlier this week and expect the rest of those by mid-month.
Speaker Change: Can you provide your view on rate case stay out periods compared to other benefits.
Speaker Change: You might have as options to offer rate pairs.
Michelle: Sure. So let me start just with the regulatory approval.
Speaker Change: Two out of the three federal regulatory approvals in a handset it's an HSR.
Speaker Change: We are waiting on FCC for a couple of the utilities, we received North Carolina I think earlier this week and we expect the rest of those by mid month.
Speaker Change: And then things are progressing really well with the three utilities from a stable perspective, we expect we still expect Ohio to go first then Utah and North Carolina.
Speaker Change: And.
Speaker Change: All of that through the course of this year.
Michelle Herodance: And then things are progressing really well with the three utilities from a state-level perspective. We still expect Ohio to go first, then Utah, then North Carolina, and all of that through the course of this year. As you pointed out, with a couple of the utilities, we do want to be able to demonstrate a net benefit. But we think overall, for all of the utilities, we can demonstrate a net benefit. And a lot of that is going to be leveraging the fact that this creates the largest natural gas platform, 7 million customers, that ability to bring together the strengths of the different utilities. So if you think of, as an example, Ohio is very technically strong, Utah, very good cost to serve, very commercially strong in North Carolina, and of course, the benefit of 175 years of multiple areas of growth in Ontario, and just already having 4 million customers really allows So we're looking at all of those things and demonstrating all those things to the utilities. In terms of the stayouts, we will consider those if it's appropriate. It's part of any discussion. I mean, we expect to have some requests for stayouts.
Speaker Change: You pointed out with a couple of the utilities, we do want to be able to demonstrate a net benefit we think overall for all of the utilities demonstrating.
Speaker Change: Demonstrating that benefit and a lot of that is going to be off of leveraging the fact that this creates the largest natural gas platform 7 million customers that ability to bring together the strengths of the different.
Speaker Change: The different utilities, rather so if you think of as an example of Ohio is very technically strong Utah very good cost to serve very commercially strong in North Carolina and of course, the benefit of 175 years.
Speaker Change: Multiple areas of growth in Ontario, and <unk>.
Speaker Change: Already having 4 million customers really allows us to scale up so we're looking at all of those things and demonstrating all of those things to the utility in terms of the stay out.
Speaker Change: We will consider those if it's appropriate as part of any discussion I mean, we expect to have some requests for status I think we had one of the Interveners in Utah last week.
Speaker Change: Just to stay out earlier this week and that will be something that we'll see we're quite confident we can come to you.
Speaker Change: Beneficial terms with everybody and like I said by bringing these four utilities together and the strengths age have there's no question that it will be able to demonstrate net benefit.
Michelle Herodance: I think we had one of the interveners in Utah last week request to stay out earlier this week, and that will be something we will see. We are quite confident we will come to beneficial terms with everybody, and like I said, by bringing these four utilities together and the strengths they each have, there is no question that we will be able to demonstrate. Okay, thank you for that.
Speaker Change: Okay. Thank you for that.
Second question here with respect to the regulatory.
Speaker Change: Process around rerouting line five around the bad River lands understanding that you have.
Greg Ebel: And just a second question here with respect to the regulatory process around rerouting Line 5 around the Bad River lands. Understanding that you've appealed the 2023 decision, I wondered if you could give an update on the timeline that was contemplated in the previous judgment, specifically where the regulatory process is vis-a-vis that timeline, and do you expect any protection from the 1977 Pipeline Treaty? Thank you. Yeah, for sure, Robert. Thanks for the questions. Colin's on the line, so he's probably the best one to update you on. Hey Robert,
Speaker Change: The appeal of the.
Speaker Change: 2023 decision.
Speaker Change: Wondered if you could give an update on the timeline.
Speaker Change: Contemplated in the previous judgment.
Speaker Change: Specifically where the.
Speaker Change: The regulatory process to vis vis that timeline and do you expect any protection from the 1977 pipeline tree. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Yes for sure Robert Thanks for the questions and Collins on the line. So it was probably the vessel and update on that.
Speaker Change: Hey, Robert Yes, sure so.
Speaker Change: The appeal hearing has started.
Speaker Change: Both both Enbridge and the Bad River band appeal that decision.
Colin Grending: Yeah, sure. So the appeals hearing has started. Both Enbridge and the Bad River Band have appealed that decision.
Speaker Change: That hearing has begun and we expect a decision on that later this year.
Colin Grending: And that hearing has begun. We expect a decision on that later this year. In the meantime, we continue to try to work cooperatively with the band to come to an amicable settlement. The original decision, if that survives, would have us re-route the 41-mile re-route around the community by June 2026. That is doable.
Speaker Change: Meantime, we continue to try to work cooperatively.
Speaker Change: Cooperatively with with the band to come to an amicable settlement.
Speaker Change: The.
Speaker Change: Original decision.
Speaker Change: That survives.
Speaker Change: What would have us reroute the 41 mile reroute around.
Speaker Change: The community.
Speaker Change: By by June 2026.
Colin Grending: We are ready to go. The critical path permit is a Wisconsin DNR permit, which we expect here in the next month or two, which would allow us over a year or two to build that, which is doable. So that's the plan. That's the plan, um... And your second question was with regard to the treaty. Yeah, and we think that that holds. Obviously, that's the reason that the treaties were created. And we expect that to, to injure. Hey, Robert, I just sat on the treaty.
Speaker Change: That is doable, we are ready to go the critical path permit is the Wisconsin, DNR permit, which we expect here in the next month or two.
Speaker Change: <unk> would allow us.
Speaker Change: Over a year.
Speaker Change: Sure.
Speaker Change: Our two to build out which is which is doable so thats the.
Speaker Change: That's that's the plan.
Speaker Change:
Speaker Change: And your second question was with regard to the Treaty and we think.
Speaker Change: That holds obviously that that's the reason.
Speaker Change: The treaties.
Speaker Change: <unk> are created and we.
Speaker Change: We expect that to.
Speaker Change: Two to endure.
Speaker Change: Hey, Robert I'd, just add on the <unk> I think that the.
Greg Ebel: I think that the one thing I'll say is that I give a lot of credit to the Canadian government, and provincial governments, for being very strong supporters of this, just understanding the just really criticality of Line 5 to so many different areas, labor unions, etc. So, you know, we feel good about that. We'll have to see.
Robert: Well one thing I'll say is I gave a lot of credit to the Canadian government provincial governments and very strong supporters on this so just understanding the just really criticality.
Robert: Line five to so many different areas labor unions et cetera. So we feel good about that we'll have to see.
Greg Ebel: And I know there's been a request for the U.S. government to have a viewpoint on this. We'll see whether or not that happens. But just really strong support on both sides of the border and making sure we get through this in the right way so that all those consumers can be served. So, you know, you never know with court things, but I feel very good about the level of support. Okay, thanks for those very fulsome answers, everyone.
Robert: I know there's been a request.
Robert: The U S government to have a viewpoint on this we'll see whether or not that happens, but just really strong support on both sides of the border and making sure we get through this in the right way so that all of those consumers can be served so.
Robert: Well you never know with core things that we feel very good about the level of support that we've got.
Speaker Change: Okay. Thanks for those very fulsome answers everyone.
Speaker Change: Thanks Robert.
Theresa Chen: Your next question comes from the line of Theresa Chen from Barclays. Your line is open. Good morning.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Theresa Chen from Barclays. Your line is open.
Speaker Change: Yes.
Theresa Chen: Good morning Blake.
Colin Grending: I'd like to touch on the liquid side as well. In terms of your mainline outlook for 2024, given the apportionment, you know, many consecutive months, the delays in TMX, and likely tracking, you know, above where we all originally thought mainline would be at this point, and heading into, you know, summer 2024, what is your outlook for the system for the remainder of the year? And what kind of, you know, upside can it bring relative to the 3 million barrels per day throughput assumption embedded in guidance? And, you know, how does that translate to the upper end of the guidance range or above? Yeah, Theresa, I can, I can take that. It's calling.
Theresa Chen: I'd like to touch on the liquid side as well.
Theresa Chen: In terms of your mainline outlook for 2024.
Theresa Chen: Given the apportionment many consecutive months.
Theresa Chen: The delays in <unk>.
Theresa Chen: I'd likely tracking above.
Theresa Chen: Where we are operationally thought mainline would be at this point and heading into summer 2024.
Theresa Chen: What is your outlook for the system.
Speaker Change: The remainder of the year and what kind of upside can a brain relative to that 3 million barrels per day.
Speaker Change: Throughput assumption embedded in guidance, how does that translate to the upper end of the guidance or above.
Speaker Change: Yeah Theresa.
Colin Grending: Yeah, so listen, we're very confident in the mainline full path to the U.S. Gulf Coast. We think it will be substantially full for the foreseeable future. I think we've used numbers like 95 to 100 percent, even in 24, through the piece. And I guess to your point, I mean, the main line's been basically full for 75 years, so it's a trend that continues, and there are a bunch of fundamental reasons for that. So, as Pat said, we're confident in our 24 guidance of 3 million barrels per day on average. That assumes the April 1 TMX service date. To the extent that it is delayed, that's a slight tailwind.
Theresa Chen: You can take that it's call yes. So.
Theresa Chen: Listen, we're we're very confident in the mainline full pad.
Theresa Chen: To the U S. Gulf Coast, we think it will be substantially full.
Theresa Chen: The foreseeable future I think we've used numbers like 95% to 100%.
Theresa Chen: Even in 'twenty four through through the through the piece and.
Theresa Chen: And I guess to your point I mean, the main lines being basically full for 75 years. So it's a trend that continues and there is a bunch of fundamental reasons.
Theresa Chen: For that.
Theresa Chen: As Pat said, we're confident in our two.
Theresa Chen: 24 guidance of 3 million barrels per day on average that assumes the April one cemex in service date.
Theresa Chen: To the extent it is delayed that's a slight tailwind again.
Colin Grending: Again, we believe we're going to be substantially full anyway, so a slight delay doesn't provide a massive increase for us, but there is some upside to that. I'm sure we'll get into this more at Enbridge Day. But there's, yeah, to your point, there's a lot of demand pull on the mainline path, a total of 39 refineries, directly and indirectly connected traditional markets. You know, they pull that that way.
Theresa Chen: We believe we're going to be substantially full anyway, so so a slight delay.
Theresa Chen: It doesn't provide a massive increase.
Theresa Chen: For us, but there is some upside to that I'm sure we'll get into this more at Enbridge day.
Theresa Chen: But to your point there is there's a lot of demand call on mainline pipe.
Theresa Chen: 39 refineries directly indirectly connected traditional markets.
Theresa Chen: They call that that way, we've got a very competitive toll.
Colin Grending: We've got a very competitive toll. We've contracted as much as we can on Flannigan South, and that was very successful.
Theresa Chen: Contracted.
Theresa Chen: As much as we can on Flanagan south that was very successful and that's what that should be a strong market endorsement for that for that coal as well I won't make any comments on <unk>.
Colin Grending: That's it. That should be a strong market endorsement for that product as well. I won't make any comments on TMX's, you know, timeline or capabilities, but we're very confident in the mainline path and, of course, we're building EHOD, I forgot about that, in Houston to further strengthen that path. So yeah, confident in the 3.0, that's relative to the 3.1 delivered just this year. We've seen that before; that's your point.
Theresa Chen: Timeline or capabilities, but.
Theresa Chen: Very confident in the mainline path and of course, we're building E Hot I forgot about that in Houston to further strengthen that part.
Theresa Chen: We are confident in the 3.0.
Theresa Chen: That's that's relative to the $3 one delivered just this year in.
Theresa Chen: We've seen that to your point.
Colin Grending: You know, massively oversubscribed nominations in the last number of months, uh... including January and February so that the trend continues. Got it. And then in terms of the Dominion asset acquisitions, as we consider the remaining funding, just to clarify the list of funding options that you put out there, is that consistent with your preference as far as, you know, prioritization, i.e., aside from additional asset sales, you would rather do drip ATM over additional hybrids and bonds? No, I wouldn't look at it like that, Theresa. It's great!
Theresa Chen: <unk>.
Theresa Chen: Massively oversubscribed.
Theresa Chen: Nominations in the last number of months.
Theresa Chen: <unk>, including January and February so the trend continues.
Speaker Change: Got it.
Speaker Change: And then in terms of the.
Speaker Change: Dominion asset acquisitions as we consider it.
Speaker Change: Meaning funding.
Speaker Change: Just to clarify the list of funding options.
Speaker Change: You put out there is that consistent with your preference as far as prioritization I E.
Speaker Change: <unk> from additional asset sales you would rather do drip.
ATM over additional hybrid bonds.
Speaker Change: No I wouldn't look at it like that it's Greg I think we just yes, I wouldn't read anything into the listing there.
Greg Ebel: I think we just, I wouldn't read anything into the listing there. I think we just wanted to make the point that, look, we've got all options available to us. And, you know, we may not use all those options. So, yeah, we've got the debt markets on secured notes and hybrids. And, you know, I guess if I had to go down any list, I would say drip is probably the least interesting from that perspective.
Speaker Change: I think we just wanted to make the point that look we've got all options available to us and we may not use all of those options. So yes, we've got the debt markets unsecured notes and hybrid.
Speaker Change: I guess, if I had to go down any list I would say, Jeff is probably the least interest.
Speaker Change: From that perspective, but frankly everything's on the table from that perspective, and as you know we've done a good job on recycling too. So it's going to be it's going to be a situational as you know we brought in much of the financing. So if somebody came along tomorrow. So that you can close this utility are that one we're ready to go so I think that creates a ton of flexibility.
Greg Ebel: But frankly, everything's on the table from that perspective. And as you know, we've done a good job on recycling too. No, it's going to be situational.
Greg Ebel: As you know, we've brought in much of the financing. So, you know, if somebody came along tomorrow and said, you can close this utility or that one, we're ready to go. So I think that creates a ton of flexibility, which is why we went out early. Pat, I don't know if you want to add to that. I think you already added it.
Speaker Change: <unk>, which is why we went out early.
Speaker Change: And also you want to add to that I think that it has with us.
Patrick Murray: With us, I think you hit it. With us securing well over 85% of that funding, we're in really good shape to be selective about what we do and make sure we're making the best decision for our shareholders as we move forward. Great, thank you. Next question comes from the line of Robert Kwan from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Good morning.
Speaker Change: With us.
Speaker Change: Securing well over 85% of that funding we're in really good shape to be selective of what we do and make sure we're making the best decision for for our shareholders as we move forward.
Speaker Change: Great. Thank you. Thanks.
Speaker Change: Thanks, Thanks, Jason.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Robert Kwan from RBC capital markets. Your line is open.
Robert Kwan: Great Good morning.
Robert Kwan: If I can just continue on the funding side for the Dominion Utilities acquisitions. So, you've got that roughly $3 billion left to go. You've been out in front of the hybrids and the Align Soxable transaction. I guess I'm just wondering, how are you thinking about the timing of addressing the rest of the need vis-Ã -vis the closing? And as you mentioned around asset monetizations, can you just give a sense as to, obviously, you don't want to necessarily get into assets, but how much is in flight in terms of processes right now relative to that $3 billion? Well, I'd say we're always looking at asset recycling. So I wouldn't necessarily tie it to the transaction. I mean, I'm trying to think about if there's been a year in the last four or five where we haven't recycled.
If I can just continue on the funding side for the Dominion.
Robert Kwan: Utilities acquisition, so you've got that roughly $3 billion left to go you've been out.
Robert Kwan: The hybrid I mean your line is Akshay will transaction I guess I'm just wondering how are you thinking about the timing of addressing that.
Rest of the need vis vis the closing and as you mentioned around asset monetization.
Robert Kwan: Can you just give a sense as to you obviously don't want to necessarily into assets.
Robert Kwan: How much is in flight in terms of processes right now.
Robert Kwan: Relative to that $3 billion.
Speaker Change: Well I'd say.
Speaker Change: We're always looking at assets recycling, so I wouldn't even necessarily tie it to the transaction.
Speaker Change: I'm trying to think about if there has been a year in the last four or five where we haven't recycled. So we're always looking at assets.
Greg Ebel: So we're always looking at assets. So I wouldn't necessarily tie it, you know, the dollars are going back and forth. From a timing perspective, I would again go down the, you know...
So I wouldn't necessarily tie the dollars of back and forth fungible from a timing perspective, I would again go down.
Speaker Change: In many respects, depending on which ones happened in the first two are basically finance. So we're going to have to look at what is the timing of those actual approvals and thats going to determine which.
Greg Ebel: In many respects, depending on which ones happen, the first two are basically finance. So we're going to have to look at what the timing of those actual approvals is, and that's going to determine which instrument we actually use. Obviously, some are quicker to implement than others.
Speaker Change: Which instrument, we actually use obviously some are quicker to exercise than others, so not meaning to be evasive forever, but.
Greg Ebel: So I'm not meaning to be evasive, Robert, but I wouldn't necessarily tie recycling, GETTP, I think we look at it like if someone has an asset with greater value If someone has an asset with greater value that we've put on it, then you pull that trigger if they can do something different. And I think Knox able is exactly that. I think Knox able has exactly that Promoted exposure was relatively low, And it And probably, they could take more risk of it than we're willing to do given our utility-like structure. So I wouldn't tie any one of these instruments just to a transaction. I'd tie it more to... We'll know more as each one of these comes closer, which ones we'll pull at the end, understood. I guess that answer was a segue into the second question.
Wouldn't necessarily tie risk cycling to just this transaction I think if you look at it look at somebody else's got greater value.
Speaker Change: On an asset that we put on it.
Speaker Change: Then you pull that trigger and if it doesn't seem to have the growth or they can do something different with it and I think alliance on our table is exactly that it had commodity exposure, but relatively low growth and it fit the buyers.
Speaker Change: <unk>.
Speaker Change: The desire to kind of be more in that business and probably they could take more risk than we're willing to do given our utility like structure. So.
Speaker Change: I wouldn't tie any one of these instruments just to the transaction I would tie it more to do.
Speaker Change: We'll know more as each one of these close which funds will pull at that point in time.
Speaker Change: Understood Yes.
Speaker Change: Does that answer that was a segue into the second question and on the other side just.
Greg Ebel: And on the other side, just, If we're thinking about, you know, capital allocation in 2024, you also acquired some other businesses, German Wind, Incremental Sale or Estate, Morrow, and Fox Squirrel. Yeah, generically, are other acquisitions budgeted into guidance here? And I understand that I'm trying to color code this to a degree that anything else you do does, to kind of lead the Dominion funding outstanding. So how are you thinking about acquisitions in 2024, given you're still short? Right, so, first of all, there are no other acquisitions in our budget, right, or in the forecast that we've put out. So that's one.
Speaker Change: If we're thinking about.
Speaker Change: Capital allocation in 2024.
Speaker Change: Following the announcement of the acquisition you also acquired some other businesses German wind incremental sale or stake.
Speaker Change: Aro Fox squirrel.
Speaker Change: Yes.
Speaker Change: Generically.
Speaker Change: Our other acquisitions budgeted into.
Speaker Change: Get into guidance here, and I guess I'm trying to color code. This to a degree but anything else you do does.
Speaker Change: Leeds Dominion funding outstanding so.
Speaker Change: How are you thinking about acquisitions in 2024, given youre still short.
Speaker Change: Right. So first of all there are no other acquisitions in our budget right or in our forecast that we've that we've put out a budget for that matter. It's the same.
Speaker Change: So that's one two if anything came along and as you can imagine is a big player in the sector in North America, we get to see things all the time it would have to be tuck in like first of all so nowhere near like what we did last year secondly, we'd have to be immediately accretive to our share per share.
Greg Ebel: Two, if anything came along, and as you can imagine, as a big player in the sector and throughout North America, we get to see things all the time. It would have to be Tuckin-like, first of all, so nowhere near like what we did last. Secondly, it would have to be immediately accretive to our share per share metric. And thirdly, it would have to be neutral or accretive to our debt metrics as well. And you know, when I think about different parts of the business, and I'm sure Colin will speak to this, Investor Day, you know, we've got some great builds that can be done that are, you know, low, medium, single digit. So the competition for capital will be challenging given the position our base businesses are in today and the growth opportunities that they see. But we'll have to look at it.
Speaker Change: Metrics and thirdly, it would have to be neutral or accretive to our debt metrics as well and you know when I think about different parts of the business and I am sure Collyn I'll speak to this on Investor day, we.
Speaker Change: We've got some great builds that can be done.
Speaker Change: Low medium single digit so there is a competition for capital will be challenging given the position of our base businesses are in today and the growth opportunities that they see.
Speaker Change: Well have to look at it so again no M&A is in our in our forecast other than the ones that were closing to date, it's a high hurdle rate on the M&A front and we're very focused on integrating these new assets with excellent right across the board, whether it's the renewable stuff.
Greg Ebel: So again, no M&A is in our forecast other than the ones that we're closing today. It's a high hurdle rate on the M&A front, and we're very focused on integrating these new assets with excellence right across the board, whether it's the renewable stuff that Matthew manages or whether it's the Moro assets. And remember, we bought a couple of storage assets. Making sure that's all running exactly as we want it to do is gonna be. Okay, that's great. Thanks, Greg. Your next question comes from the line of Linda Ezergailis from TD Cowen. Your line is open.
Speaker Change: That Matthew manages or whether it's the tomorrow assets.
Speaker Change: And remember we bought a couple of storage assets, making sure that's all running exactly as.
Speaker Change: We wanted to do is going to be a key focus.
Speaker Change: Okay, that's great. Thanks, Greg Thanks.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Linda <unk> from TD Cowen Your line is open.
Linda: Thank you this is a bit of a foundational question.
Linda Ezergailis: Thank you. This is a bit of a foundational question on just the regulatory compact in North America or specifically the U.S., and it relates to the Chevron Doctrine. It's been about 40 years since the Supreme Court decided that the court should defer to a federal agency's reasonable interpretation of an ambiguous statute.
Linda: On the regulatory compact in North America, specifically the U S.
Linda: And it relates to the Chevron doctrine, it's been about 40 years since the Supreme Court.
Speaker Change: <unk> decided that.
Speaker Change: The court should defer to in agencies and federal agencies reasonable interpretation of an ambiguous statute.
Greg Ebel: If that gets discarded or removed this summer, what impact might that have on your business, and how might that inform your approach to, you know, for example, a likely higher frequency of settlements in your gas transmission business? How you might see federal agencies maybe shifting their approach. I think there could be a few moving parts there if you could just comment on how you're thinking of that evolving situation. Yeah, it's a good question, you know, we'll probably have to give that some more consideration at Investor Day and walk through that a little bit. I mean, obviously, there are several pieces to this; it depends on which part of the business, as you point out, it's probably a much more relevant issue to our utility businesses that are coming in, particularly in the United States. Because many of our other businesses, as you know, we're often seeking settlement, whether it's Texas Eastern or the mainline tolling settlement. We like to work with customers and get more of a deal out of that.
Speaker Change: If that gets discarded are removed this summer what impact might that have on your business and how might that inform your approach to for example.
Speaker Change: Unlikely.
Speaker Change: A higher frequency of settlements in the gas transmission business, how you might see federal agencies, maybe shifting their approach.
Speaker Change: And I think there could be a few moving parts. There. If you could just comment on how you are thinking of that evolving situation.
Speaker Change: Yes, it's good question.
Speaker Change: We'll probably have to give that some more consideration at investor day, and we'll walk through that a little bit I mean, obviously there are several pieces of this it depends on which part of the business as you pointed out it's probably a much more relevant issued to our utility businesses.
Speaker Change: That are coming in particularly in the United States because many of our other businesses. As you know we are often seeking to settle whether it's Texas eastern whether it's the mainline tolling settlements.
Speaker Change: We'd like to work with customers and get more of a deal in that regard, but as it is with utilities.
Greg Ebel: But, as it is with utilities... I'll even go as far as things like long-term incentive deals like we've been able to do historically in Ontario. I think that limits some of our exposure if there's a change in the Chevron doctrine, but I think it's a good point, Linda, and we should probably give it a more fulsome discussion and answer as we kind of move into Investor Day. I don't know, Michelle, do you want to add anything to that or not?
Speaker Change: I'll, even go as far as things like incentives long term incentive deals like we've been able to do historically in Ontario, I think that limits some of our exposure to some of the if theres a change in the Chevron Doctor and but I think it's a good point Linda.
Linda: We should probably give it a more fulsome discussion and answer.
Speaker Change: As we kind of move into Investor Day, I don't know Michelle do you want to add anything to that or well I think at the end of the day a lot of what we deal with at the utilities is determined it is inside the jurisdiction at the state level so in that sense.
Michelle Herodance: Well, I think at the end of the day, a lot of what we deal with at the utilities is determined and is inside the jurisdiction of the state level. So in that sense, we'll be looking to them. And I think we'd better. Yeah, I look forward to that because, yeah, even renewable policy and stuff like that could be good, but just maybe, as a follow-on, just with respect to your appeal and motion in Ontario, can you give us an update on how you're partnering with the provincial government because they were, I think they had an intention to introduce legislation to overturn a certain aspect of the OAB decision as it related to eliminating the And then maybe you can just comment on the timeline for these processes and when you expect them to be resolved, and if you're fully successful, kind of what the upside is versus the current decision as it stands. Sure, I can cover a few of those things.
Michelle: We will be looking to them I think we better take that one yes.
Michelle: I look forward to that because even renewable policy and stuff like that.
Speaker Change: But just maybe as a follow on.
Speaker Change: With respect to your appeal in motion.
Speaker Change: <unk> can you give us an update on how youre partnering with the provincial government because they were I think they have an intention to introduce legislation to overturn a certain aspect of the OLED decision as it related to eliminating amortization of new gas connections for for homes and affordability and then maybe you can just comment on.
Speaker Change: On the timeline of these processes and when you expect them to be resolved and if youre fully successful kind of what the upside is versus.
Speaker Change: Kind of the current decision as it stands.
Speaker Change: Sure I cannot I cover a few of those things. So I wouldn't say, we're partnering with the government of Ontario, but we've certainly made our concerns cleared to them, although as you saw by the.
Michelle Herodance: So I wouldn't say we're partnering with the government of Ontario, but we certainly made our concerns clear to them. However, as you saw by the pretty swift and decisive statements they made within hours of the release, they were well ahead of us on those concerns. I mean, at the end of the day, obviously, we're disappointed, but this is a case where the regulators made a decision that's just simply not in keeping with the policies of the government. That's exactly what Minister Smith said right away.
Speaker Change: Pretty swift and decisive statements they've made within hours of the release.
Speaker Change: The concerns I mean.
Speaker Change: At the end of the day, obviously, we are disappointed but this is a case, where the regulators made a decision that is just simply not in keeping with the policies of the government that's exactly what Mr. Smith said right away.
Michelle Herodance: You know, we don't expect it to be material to Enbridge's overall 2024 financial guidance, but it's frustrating and disappointing on a lot of fronts. I mean, there's a strong bias against natural gas in there. There's a presumption that we'll rapidly electrify all the heating load and abandon the gas network. And fundamentally, it limits access to affordable energy. I mean, the fact of the matter is, I think there are short-term issues, and there may be some short-term struggles here, but long-term, the fact of the matter is, Ontario's not going to meet its economic growth aspirations without the flexibility and affordability of natural gas, and the government knows that.
Speaker Change: Don't expect it to be material to Enbridge is overall 2024 financial guidance, but frustrating and disappointing on a lot of fronts. I mean, there is a strong bias against natural gas in there.
Speaker Change: They pre suppose that will rapidly electrify all the heating load abandon the gas network.
Speaker Change: Fundamentally it limits access to affordable energy.
Speaker Change: I mean, the fact of the matter is I think there are short term issues and that there may be some short term struggles here, but long term. The fact that matter I'm not going to meet its economic growth aspirations without the flexibility and affordability of the natural gas and natural gas infrastructure provided the government knows that.
Michelle Herodance: I mean, they've said very clearly that they need to build 1.5 million new homes in the next 10 years. And there are almost 3 million people expected to move to Ontario in the next decade. And I don't know that folks fully recognize this, but our, for example, industrial and contract market growth has been really strong in the last few years. And that's coming from things like the electric vehicle battery and the manufacturing sector. I was just down looking at the Nexstar plant. They need our cost-effective natural gas to support their manufacturing processes. The greenhouse developers that we have in southwestern Ontario absolutely rely on natural gas to provide their product affordably.
Speaker Change: <unk> said very clearly they need to bill at $1 5 million new homes in the next 10 years. There is almost 3 million people are expected to move to Ontario in the next decade, and I don't know that folks are fully recognize that our for example, our industrial and contract market growth has been really strong in the last few years and thats coming from things like the electrical electric vehicles battery.
The manufacturing sector I was just down looking at the next started plant they need are cost effective natural gas to support their manufacturing processes. The greenhouse developers that we havent southwestern Ontario, absolutely.
Speaker Change: Rely on natural gas.
Speaker Change: Provide their product affordably and things like.
Michelle Herodance: And things like steelmaking, whether that's DeFasco and Hamilton or others, need natural gas to reduce the carbon intensity of what they have. You know, we're certainly working with the Government of Ontario to make sure they understand the full implications of this decision, that it goes well beyond the revenue horizon, to state the obvious, that impacts their ability to deliver those homes, and is further reaching than that over the long term, should it stay in place. I mean, in the near term, it's about $300 million in capital that it pulls back this year for us. But again, it remains to be seen what actions are taken. We, of course, have preserved our interest by filing a notice of appeal and a motion with the Ontario Divisional Courts and a motion to review. The motion to review would likely go first.
Speaker Change: Steelmaking, whether that Vasco in Hamilton or others need natural gas to reduce the carbon intensity of what they have to.
Speaker Change: We are certainly working with the government, Ontario, making sure they understand the full implications of this decision that it goes well beyond the revenue horizon piece I mean, just to state the obvious that impacts their ability to deliver those homes.
Speaker Change: Further reaching than that over the long term should it stay in place I mean in the near term, it's about $300 million in capital that it pulled back this year for us, but again it remains to be seen what.
Speaker Change: Actions are taken.
Speaker Change: Of course, it preserved our interest by filing a notice to appeal and emotions with the inter divisional courts.
Speaker Change: Motion to review the.
Speaker Change: The motion to review would likely go first that's what the Ontario Energy Board itself, where we had set out.
Michelle Herodance: That's what the Ontario Energy Board itself, where we would set out a number of things, including the fact that there are new facts on the table, the new facts pointing to the press release from the government that clarifies its policy, the energy and electrification transition panel, that sort of thing will be out there. Typically, the timeline for something like a review motion like this would be different. Can it be anywhere from 135 to 165 days?
Speaker Change: A number of things, including the fact that there are new facts on the table that new fact, pointing to the press release from the government.
Speaker Change: Clarify if its policy energy in electrification transition panel that sort of thing will be out there typically.
Speaker Change: Typically the timeline for something like a.
Speaker Change: The review motion of this can be anywhere from 130 565 days.
Michelle Herodance: And we'll go through those steps, certainly. But as you said, the government has said that they will take action and take that action much more immediately. You know, the legislature is coming back, I think it's February 20th.
Speaker Change: We'll go through those steps certainly, but as he said the government has.
<unk> said that they will take action and take that action much more immediately.
Speaker Change: Lasers coming back I think in February 20th.
Michelle Herodance: And they certainly do understand the immediacy of the issue, that this impacts us right here and right now, should we reduce those levels of capital, and that it's important to them to maintain and ensure Singapore is an attractive place to invest. So I'm pretty confident we're going to get this one resolved. It's always good to be on the side of where government wants to go and on the side of their policies. And in the meantime, like we talked about earlier, we've got lots to focus on, such as finalizing the acquisitions of the three utilities in the U.S. and integrating them. Yeah, Linda.
Speaker Change: They certainly do understand that the immediacy of the issue that impacts us right here and right now should we reduce those.
Speaker Change: The capital and that <unk>.
Speaker Change: <unk> to them to maintain on terrorists an attractive place to invest so I'm pretty confident we're going to get this resolved.
Speaker Change: It's always good to be on the side of where.
Speaker Change: Government wants to go and on the side of their policy and in the meantime, I'd like we talked about earlier, we've got lots to focus onto with finalizing the acquisitions of the three utilities in the U S and integrating them, yes, Linda I think the real milestone as Linda.
Greg Ebel: I think the real milestone, as Michelle said, is, you know, let's see what happens at the end of February. Yes, exactly. I mean, that's a triggering event for us as to where things look like they're going. But, as she said, it doesn't really have an impact on 24.
Speaker Change: Michelle said is.
Speaker Change: Let's see what happens at the end of February.
Speaker Change: That's a triggering event for us as to.
Speaker Change: Where things look like Theyre going as you said doesn't really have an impact on 'twenty. Four issue is from a long term perspective as they get this right and they want to see continued economic growth.
Greg Ebel: The issue is, from a long-term perspective, if they get this right and they want to see continued economic growth and reach their sustainability goals, that means there's going to be a greater rate base in the natural gas business, and that's what it's all about. And you know, it's kind of, not that obviously we saw this coming, but it's kind of serendipitous for us that there are three other jurisdictions that would love to have our investment opportunities and actually are very positively disposed and have legislation even giving the choice that we want Ontario consumers to have. So I think from an Enbridge perspective, the net opportunity is still more rate-based, and Mark Rose, hopefully, in four jurisdictions in North America. And that's kind of what we're focused on. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from J.P. Morgan. Your line is open. Hi, good morning.
Speaker Change: <unk> reached their sustainability goals that means there's going to be a greater rate base in the natural gas business and thats, what its all about and it's kind of up and obviously, we saw this coming but it's kind of serving dividends for us that there are three other jurisdictions that would love and have our investment opportunities and actually.
Speaker Change: Very positively disposed and have legislation, even giving the choice that we want Ontario consumers to have so I think from a enbridge perspective, the net opportunity is still more rate base or earnings opportunity and more growth hopefully in four jurisdictions in North America.
Speaker Change: And that's kind of what we're focused on achieving.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from Jpmorgan. Your line is open.
Jeremy Tonet: Hi, good morning.
Jeremy Tonet: Just want to follow up, I guess, on the last point as it relates to Enbridge Gas there, and wondering if you might be able to talk a little bit more about the timeline, how things could unfold here, and as you think about OEB Phase 2, Phase 3, just, you know, thoughts at this point given what's transpired so far. And, you know, at the same time, what you're touching on there as far as, I guess, when the Dominion acquisition concludes successfully, could you see, kind of, capital being pulled away from those jurisdictions given, kind of, what you've seen for, you know, regulatory outcomes so far? Thank you.
Jeremy Tonet: Yes.
Jeremy Tonet: Just wanted to follow up I guess on the last point as it relates to Enbridge gas there.
Jeremy Tonet: Wondering if you might be able to.
Jeremy Tonet: Talk a little bit more about the timeline, how things could unfold here and as you think about <unk> phase II phase III just.
Jeremy Tonet: Thoughts at this point, given what's transpired so far and at the same time, what you're touching on there as far as I guess, Wendy Dominion acquisition conclude successfully could could you see kind of capital being pulled away towards those jurisdictions given kind of what <unk>.
Jeremy Tonet: Scene for.
Regulatory outcomes so far.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Michelle Herodance: Yeah, you know, like I said earlier, the real, and as Greg said, the really indicative point will be later this month when we see what the Government of Ontario comes out with in terms of how they propose to rectify this issue and follow through on Minister Smith's statement. That being said, there is the motion to review process that I mentioned that will take a few months. I mean, it would likely take till till the summer for us to resolve things.
Speaker Change: Like I said earlier, I mean, the real and as Greg said that really indicative point will be later this month, when we see what the government of Ontario comes out.
Speaker Change: In terms of how they proposed to rectify this issue and followed through administer Smith statement that being said there.
Speaker Change: The motion to review process that I mentioned that will take a few months I mean not that bad.
Speaker Change: Likely take till by summer for us, resulting but that being said there is plenty of work for us to do in Ontario, and we're continuing to certainly always focus on investing and ensuring the safety and the reliability of the assets, we have and that they continue to flow and provide the gas that people need and want we're big fans.
Michelle Herodance: But that being said, there's plenty of work for us to do in Ontario, and we're continuing to certainly always focus on investing in and ensuring the safety and the reliability of the assets we have and that they continue to flow and provide the gas that people need and want. We're big fans of a set of customer choice, and that's really where, as Greg alluded to, that goes to the US jurisdictions and the three utilities that we've acquired there. I mean, they all have very strong equity thickness.
Speaker Change: Set of customer choice, and Thats really where as Greg alluded to that goes to the U S jurisdictions and the three utilities that we've acquired there I mean, they all have very strong equity thickness.
Michelle Herodance: They all have good ROEs, and we'll be looking to make sure that we understand exactly what the growth opportunities are. I mean, we've looked at it through our due diligence, of course, and we feel very good about the growth opportunities. For example, Ohio has a strong modernization program with a very quick return on its capital.
Speaker Change: Have good Roe's and we'll be looking to make sure that we understand exactly what the growth opportunities are I mean, we've looked at it through our due diligence of course, we feel very good about the growth opportunities.
Speaker Change: Ohio has strong modernization program with very quick return on its capital.
Michelle Herodance: We see in Utah very strong customer growth. We're also using natural gas for some decarbonization activities. There's a lot of commercial growth there. And then, similarly, in North Carolina, very strong, very strong, commercial and residential growth, and again, the de-carbonization where they're looking to reduce the intensity of their power production moving off of coal and into natural gas. You know, we've seen really good growth in our regulated business in Ontario. I think I've mentioned why I really believe we'll continue to see really good growth in Ontario. People are moving to Ontario, and lots of homes are wanting to be built. It's got all the pieces.
Speaker Change: You see in Utah, and very strong customer growth. They are also using our natural gas for some decarbonization activities. There is a lot of commercial growth there and then similarly in North Carolina very strong.
Speaker Change: Strong commercial and residential growth and again, the determination where they're looking to move.
Speaker Change: It is the intensity of their power production moving off of coal and it is natural gas.
Speaker Change: We're seeing really good growth in our regulated business in Ontario, I think Ive mentioned why I really believe we will continue to see really good growth in Ontario.
Speaker Change: People are moving to Ontario lots of homes wanting to be built.
Speaker Change: Got all the pieces I mean, we're towards the end of our modernization program in Ontario, but we still have lots of work to do to help industrial's reduce their intensity.
Michelle Herodance: I mean, we're towards the end of our modernization program in Ontario, but we still have lots of work to do to help industrials to reduce their intensity. But, you know, the fact is we currently have an equity thickness for the gas utility there that, although it went up marginally by a couple of percentage points with the decision of the OEB, it's still one of the lowest in North America. And as LDCs, we need to compete for capital, whether that's here within Enbridge or we're on a North American scale. These jurisdictions that are new to us, these new-to-us utilities, they operate in strong jurisdictions that recognize that part of ensuring the sustainability of their energy systems and their economies includes ensuring they have a transparent, predictable, and competitive regulatory regime.
Speaker Change: But the fact is we currently have an equity thickness for the gas utility there that although it went up marginally.
Speaker Change: Couple of percentage points with the decision the OTB its still one of the lowest in North America.
Speaker Change: Ldc's, we need to compete for capital whether that's here within Enbridge or were on a north American scale. So.
Speaker Change: In these jurisdictions that are needed on these new utilities, the operate and stronger sections that recognize the part of ensuring the sustainability of their energy systems in their economies.
Speaker Change: <unk>, ensuring they have a transparent predictable and competitive regulatory regime. So we're really really excited about bringing them in as quickly as possible integrating them smoothly and looking towards where else theres growth.
Michelle Herodance: We're really, really excited about bringing them in as quickly as possible, integrating them smoothly, and looking towards where else. Got it, makes sense. Thank you for that. And just one second question real quick here. Suppose you're not going to give us everything that's going to be happening at Analyst Day, but I was just wondering if there's any foreshadowing or overall objectives that you see for the upcoming Analyst Day that you want the investment community to come away with?
Speaker Change: Got it makes sense. Thank you for that and just second question real quick here.
Suppose youre not going to give us everything that can be happening at the analyst day, but just wondering if theres any foreshadowing our overall objectives that you see for the upcoming analyst day that you want the investment community to come away with.
Greg Ebel: Yeah, well, you're right. We're not going to give you that idea, though. That might make March 6 that much fun, actually.
Speaker Change: Yes.
Speaker Change: You're right, we're not going to give you.
Speaker Change: Sorry to hear that would might make march six that much actually but.
Greg Ebel: But look, the fundamental fact is, and I don't believe that the stock currently reflects it in any way, shape, or form, is that we've got a growth plan that extends beyond the three-year forecast that we put out and our expectations. I don't think that's being realized in the market, you know, both from an efficiency perspective in terms of the blending and extending of growth with the new assets that we've picked up and that we're building. And we're really going to walk through that for all of you and how all of these pieces fit together. And I'll just give you a brief example. Rebecca's looking at me and saying, don't give too much.
Speaker Change: Look the fundamental fact is and I don't believe that currently.
Speaker Change: The stock reflects it in any way shape perform is that we've got a growth plan that extends beyond.
Speaker Change: The three year forecast that we put out in our expectations I don't think thats being realized in the market.
Speaker Change: Both from an efficiency perspective in terms of the blending and extending of growth with the new assets that we picked up and that we're building.
Speaker Change: And we're really going to walk through that for all of you and how all of these pieces fit together and I'll just give a brief example, Rebecca is looking at me. So I don't give too much but just a brief example would be you know think about Ohio itself, you're just talking about the utilities, we have all of our business is located.
Greg Ebel: But, you know, just a brief example would be, you know, think about Ohio itself. You're just talking about the utilities. We have all of our businesses located in Ohio.
Speaker Change: In Ohio, It's a good example, where we see opportunities to provide customers shareholders and stakeholders with with real value added. So we have liquids lines that serve refineries. There we have gas transmission that goes through Ohio will have a great utility there that wants to see growth and.
Greg Ebel: It's a good example where we see opportunities to provide customers, shareholders, and stakeholders with real value added. So we have liquid lines that serve refineries there. We have gas transmission that goes through Ohio.
Greg Ebel: We'll have a great utility there that wants to see growth. And, you know, Matthew's got renewable assets there. So we think that is a real opportunity to create value on all fronts, and I don't think that's being realized. So that's my thesis, and that's what I want you to walk away with on March 6th. Got it. Thank you for that. I appreciate it. Your next question comes from the line of Rob Hope from Scotiabank. Your line is open. Good morning, everyone.
Speaker Change: Matthew get renewable assets. There. So we think that is a real opportunity to create value on all fronts and I don't think thats being realized so that's that's the thesis and that's what I want you to walk away.
Speaker Change: From March six with.
Speaker Change: Got it thank you for that.
Speaker Change: I appreciate it.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Rob Hope from Scotiabank. Your line is open.
Robert Hope: Good morning, everyone.
Michelle Herodance: A bit of a broader question from me, you know, in your conversations, you've talked about some good regulatory jurisdictions versus, you know, a more challenging decision from Ontario. You know, historically, Ontario has been seen as a relatively pro-gas and, you know, relatively good regulatory regime. So when you look forward, especially given the fact that you will be, you know, introducing some incremental jurisdictions here, how do you ensure that the good regulatory jurisdictions stay that way? And then, as you move forward, how do you expect to continue to interact with governments and regulators such that they see the value and need of the natural gas system? Sure, I can take that.
Robert Hope: A a broader question for me.
Robert Hope: In your conversations you've talked about some good regulatory jurisdictions versus a more challenging decision from Ontario, Historically, Ontario has been seen as a relatively pro gas in relatively good regulatory regime. So when you look forward and especially given the fact that you will be introducing some incremental jurisdictions here.
Robert Hope: How do you ensure that the good regulatory jurisdictions stay that way and then as you move forward. How do you expect to continue to interact with the governments and regulators such that that they see the value and need of the natural gas systems.
Speaker Change: Sure I can take that.
Michelle Herodance: Well, first of all, let's be clear, Ontario is still pro-gas. I mean, that's, I think if you take nothing from the statement from the Minister of Energy, take that. I'd also refer you to things like the Powering Ontario Growth Plan that they have. But at the end of the day, I think with all of these jurisdictions, one of the things we really believe is that strong local presence is important. So we will, and we will maintain very strong local leaders for each of these utilities. So the vice presidents and GMs for Ohio, Utah, and North Carolina are there, they're very well known by the regulators, well known by the folks in government in each of those jurisdictions. Just like our folks in Ontario, they are very well known and well respected.
Speaker Change: Well first of all let's be clear, Ontario is still his program I mean, I think if you take nothing from them. The statement from the Minister of energy take that I'd also refer you to things like the powering Ontario's growth plan that they have so but at the end of the day I think with all of these jurisdictions one of the things. We really believe is that strong local presence is important.
Speaker Change: So we will we have and will maintain very strong local leaders of each of these utilities Vice president in Gms.
Speaker Change: Utah, and North Carolina, there Theyre very well.
Speaker Change: Known by the regulators well known by the <unk>.
Speaker Change: Folks in government and each of those jurisdictions, just like our folks in Ontario are very well known and well respected I mean, it's really important that is to be seen as trusted advisers to be transparent in our dealing to do what's best for the communities we operate in.
Michelle Herodance: I mean, it's really important to us. We are seen as trusted advisors to be transparent in our dealings, to do what's best for the communities we operate in. We think of ourselves as being in service, and in fact, that service name is in some of the utilities' names. So those are all critical.
Speaker Change: We think of ourselves as being in service and in fact that service name as is in some of the utilities name.
Speaker Change: These are all critical but in order in order to ensure that when we make the transition smoothly. Its been very important for let's say go out and meet with that with the regulators I personally met with the head of every public utility.
Michelle Herodance: But in order to ensure that we make the transition smoothly, it's been very important for us to go out and meet with the regulators. I've personally met with the heads of every public utility that has jurisdiction over the assets we're acquiring, whether that's Wyoming, Utah, North Carolina, or Ohio. I've met with their staff, and I've met with various members of the government. Greg, I think you've met with at least two of the governors. You met with Ohio, and you and I met together with Utah. I think I'm meeting with North Carolina here in a couple of weeks. I met with the lieutenant governor of North Carolina a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker Change: We are.
Speaker Change: It has jurisdiction over the assets, we're acquiring whether that's Wyoming, Utah, North Carolina, Ohio, I've met with their staff.
Speaker Change: Various members of government, Greg I think you've met with at least two of the governors met with Ohio.
Speaker Change: And then I met together with Utah, I think I'm meeting with that.
Speaker Change: The North Carolina here in a couple of weeks the Governor of North Carolina, I met with the <unk>.
Speaker Change: And the Governor of North Carolina couple of weeks ago, that's an important part of it that they understand who we are that we're credible that we'll do the right thing by these jurisdictions and I can tell you all four of them what they talk to me about is wanting to ensure that gap continues to be delivered reliably and affordably and thats something that is a real advantage that all.
Michelle Herodance: I mean, that's an important part of it, that they understand who we are, that we're credible, that we'll do the right thing by these jurisdictions. And I can tell you that all four of them, what they talk to me about is wanting to ensure that gas continues to be delivered reliably and affordably. And that's something that is a real advantage that all of these utilities have. I mean, if you look at the storage, we haven't talked about our Dawn Storage Facility, because maybe we haven't had the extreme colds that we've had in the past, but Dawn has continued to just set records in Ontario. Ohio has six major pipelines that are serving it, and Utah with the WEXPRO assets. Again, all of those things really help keep the price stable, keep it affordable, keep it reliable. Same thing happened in North Carolina.
Speaker Change: All of these utilities have I mean, if you look at the storage, we haven't talked about our dawn storage facility.
Speaker Change: Haven't had the extreme cold that we've had in the past, but Don has continued to.
Speaker Change: Just set records out of Ontario, Ohio heads.
Speaker Change: Much of the six major pipelines that are serving it.
Speaker Change: With the <unk> assets again that really all of those things really helped keep the prices stable keep it affordable keep it reliable same thing in North Carolina, We've got an LNG facility there and we.
Speaker Change: We will have an LNG facility that I can't get ahead of myself and we of course.
Speaker Change: And North Carolina are proposing a second one so that's really what they care about it's important to keep those relationships openness and important that they know that they can reach out to us at any time and it's important for us to be listening closely to what they want for their for their people.
Michelle Herodance: We've got an LNG facility there, or we will have an LNG facility there. I can't get ahead of myself. And we, of course, the folks in North Carolina, are proposing a second one. So that's really what they care about. It's important to keep those relationships open. It's important that they know that they can reach out to us at any time. And it's important for us to be listening closely to what they want for their people.
Speaker Change: Robert I think you've taken it up to the overall enbridge level I think whether it's cynthia's business Collins business, you've heard Bob Michel or Matthews I think we work real hard at our regulatory relationships. We have do much harder than we did historically because of some of the what I'll say confusion about energy <unk>.
Speaker Change: <unk> and I think the whole portfolio. When you look at it from top to bottom really fits the current state and actually.
Greg Ebel: You know, Rob, I think in taking it up to the overall Enbridge level, I think whether it's Cynthia's business, Colin's business, you've heard about Michelle or Matthew's, I think we work real hard on our regulatory relationships. We have to do much harder than we did historically because of some of the, what I'll call, confusion about the energy transition. And, you know, I think the whole portfolio, when you look at it from top to bottom, really fits the current state and actually, you know, probably the state that it'll be in for some period of time, the long, long tail and future for oil and natural gas. It's not a destination fuel; it's There isn't really a future without natural gas in most parts of the planet, and that doesn't take away from renewables.
Probably the state that it will be in some period of time long long tail and future for oil and natural gas be it's not a destination fuel, it's an ultimate yield thats going to be there isn't really a future without natural gas in most parts of the planet and that doesn't take away from renewables and we get into those communities were in <unk>.
Speaker Change: Plus states in eight provinces and we've got to make sure that they value our investment I think if you look at our <unk>.
Speaker Change: Indigenous reconciliation action plan is another good example, and you look at projects we've done to include.
Speaker Change: Groups that Havent historically been involved that's how you build strong.
Speaker Change: Alliances and those strong alliances actually make the regulator's job easier and when you get something off balance that seems to be counter to.
Greg Ebel: And we get into those communities; we're in 40 plus states and eight provinces, and, you know, we've got to make sure that they value our investment. I think if you look at our Indigenous Reconciliation Action Plan, which is another good example, and you look at projects we've done to include groups that haven't historically been involved, that's how you build strong alliances, and those strong alliances actually make the regulator's job
Speaker Change: A regulatory outcome, that's counter to policy or the communities. Then you see those changes and that's what you had in Ontario, right. So the regulators require two independently regulate consistent with government policy that is not what happened in Ontario, but it's our job to keep working with these communities and when you have issues to make sure that the homebuilders understand the obligation.
Greg Ebel: And then when you get something off balance that seems to be counter to a regulatory outcome that's counter to policy or the communities, then you see those changes, and that's what you had in Ontario, right? So regulators required to independently regulate consistent with government policy, that's not what happened in Ontario, right? But it's our job to keep working with these communities, and when you have issues, make sure that the home builders understand the implications, make sure that the manufacturers understand the implications, that our union brothers and sisters understand the implications. So I think it's much bigger than regulatory, and as an industry, and definitely as a company, I think we've continued to improve that, and we've got to keep getting better and better. All right, I appreciate that. That's it for me.
Speaker Change: Make sure that the manufacturers understand the implications that are Union brothers and sisters understand the implications. So I think it's much bigger than regulatory and as an industry and definitely as a company I think we've continued to improve that and we've got to keep getting better and better at that and selling our message.
Speaker Change: Alright, I appreciate that.
Speaker Change: Fulsome answer that's it for me thank you.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Ben Pham from BMO. Your line is open.
Ben Pham: Hi, Thanks, good morning.
Ben Pham: Hi.
Ben Pham: And maybe you can go back to the mainline.
Ben Pham: I'm talking about.
Ben Pham: The positive trends in terms of volumes this year.
Ben Pham: I'm wondering if you can maybe add a bit of color on that.
Robert Hope: Thank you. Your next question comes from a line called Ben Phan from BMO. Your line is open. Hi, thanks. Good morning.
Ben Pham: Do you think some of this is as producer is building ahead of the Max are you.
Speaker Change: I think it's more mostly demand.
Colin Grending: Maybe we can go back to the main line. I know you've been talking about the positive trends in terms of volumes this year, and I'm wondering if you can maybe add a bit of color on whether you think some of this is produced or is building ahead of TMX? Or do you think it's more mostly demand-driven that's driving it? Hey Ben, it's Colin.
Speaker Change: Driven thats that's driving it.
Hey, Ben it's Paul Thanks for your question.
Paul: I kind of flip through most of the analyst estimates and I think.
Paul: Most analysts have.
Paul: Updated there.
Paul: Forecast on this.
Colin Grending: Yeah, thanks for your question and... You know, I've kind of flipped through most of the analysts' estimates, and I think most analysts have updated their forecasts on this. And I think, you know, this notion that the mainline is going to lose a bunch of volume when TMX comes in is a bit of a stale concept. It might have been valid a few years ago, but it's been delayed materially, and in that multi-year period of delay, supply has structurally and permanently grown to rateable production.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Notion that the mainline is going to lose a bunch of volume and <unk> comes in it's a bit of a stale concept. It might've been valid few years ago, but it's been delayed materially.
Speaker Change: And.
Speaker Change: In that.
Speaker Change: Multiyear period of delay.
Speaker Change: Fly has structurally permanently.
Speaker Change: It's ratable production.
Speaker Change: And that demand is there it's basically insatiable.
Colin Grending: And that demand is there; it's basically insatiable. So, I mean, just to run through this.
Speaker Change: So.
Speaker Change: I mean, just just to run through this.
Colin Grending: In 2022, supply grew by 100,000 barrels a day. Last year in 23, supply grew by 150,000. Beryl's pretty in Canada, in 2024, looking to grow between 250,000 and 300,000 barrels a day and 25,000, another couple hundred thousand barrels a day. If you add that up, it's probably 2x what TMX is, likely to practically move. Um, So that's kind of the math that we're looking at and gives us a lot of confidence in that, in the 3 million barrels per day forecast for 2024. There has been a bit of storage growth, maybe to your point, anticipation of that, and we see that in our nominations. I've been oversubscribed, so... Apportionment has been high.
In 2022 supply grew by 100000 barrels a day.
Speaker Change: Last year in 'twenty three supply grew by 150000.
Speaker Change: <unk>, Canada.
Speaker Change: In 2024.
Speaker Change: Looking to grow between 250, and 300000, a day in and 25% another couple hundred thousand barrels per day.
Speaker Change: Add that up its probably to ask what <unk>.
Speaker Change: Likely to practically move.
Speaker Change: So.
Speaker Change: That's kind of the math.
Speaker Change: Matt that we're looking at and gives us a lot of confidence in that.
Speaker Change: And the 3 million barrels per day forecast for 2024.
Speaker Change: There has been a.
Speaker Change: A bit of.
Speaker Change: Storage growth tier maybe to your point.
Speaker Change: Anticipation of that and we see that in our in our nominations.
Speaker Change: Oversubscribed so.
Speaker Change: A portion of that has been high.
Speaker Change: It may we may still have a portion meant once <unk> comes in depending on the month or day, our crude slate.
Colin Grending: It may We may still have apportionment once GMX comes in, depending on the month or day or accrued slate. So we're going to be pretty full.
Speaker Change: So we're going to be.
Colin Grending: I don't know if that answers your question. Yeah, no, that's great. Interesting term events.
Speaker Change: Pretty full I don't if that answers your question.
Speaker Change: Yes.
Speaker Change: Great its interesting turn of events thanks for that Tom.
Colin Grending: Thanks for that. And maybe the second question, maybe for Greg, when you talk about the balanced business mix with Dominion, are you, are you putting renewables in gas? When you think about that percentage and how you frame the business mix, or do you think about that as a separate POD and then your business metrics?
Speaker Change: And then maybe the second question.
Speaker Change: Maybe for Greg.
Greg Evo: When you talk about balanced business mix.
Greg Evo: Dominion.
Greg Evo: Are you are you, putting renewables and gas.
Greg Evo: When you think about that.
Greg Evo: Percentage in and how you frame the business mix are you.
Greg Evo: Do you think about that as a separate.
Greg Evo: Hardin and your business mix.
Greg Evo: Yeah.
Ben Phan: You know, it's interesting because we definitely, you know, we put the four businesses, if you drew a pie chart, if you will, we put them separately, but guess what I was saying is that they're just increasingly more integrated in terms of what our customers and, I think, what investors want as well, even on a proportion basis. So here's the way I would look. Just about 50%, or once the utilities are closed, maybe a little bit less than 50% of the business will be liquids, and 50% or more will be gas and renewables. So that's probably the way to think about it from a split perspective. There's no doubt, as you know, a lot of support for renewables is needed by the gas sector, right, as backup. So they're definitely connected. And often that's done by utilities, but sometimes it's done by, you know, independent power plants or just the gas pipelines as well, making sure that flows.
Greg Evo: It's interesting because we definitely we've put the four businesses. If you drew a pie chart. If you will we put them separately, but I guess, what I was saying is that there just increasingly more integrated in terms of what our customers.
Greg Evo: And I think what investors want as well even on a proportionate basis. So here's the way I would look at it just about 50% or once the utilities are close maybe a little bit less than 50% of the business will be liquids and 50% or more will be gas and renewables. So that's probably the way to think about it from us.
Greg Evo: Split perspective, there is no doubt as you know.
Greg Evo: A lot of support for renewables is needed by the gas sector right. So as backup so theyre definitely connected and often thats done by utilities, but sometimes that's done by.
Greg Evo: Independent other power plants are just the gas pipelines as well as making sure that flows. So I think we kind of youre right, we sort of split the liquids business and then the gas business in renewable business together, but they really aren't working altogether on multiple fronts and again I think we're going to talk about that at Investor day.
Greg Ebel: So I think we kind of, you're right, we sort of split the liquids business and then the gas business and renewable business together, but they really are working all together on multiple fronts. And again, I think we're going to talk about that on yesterday's panel. Okay, that's great. Thank you. Thank you. Our final question comes from a line called Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo. Your line is open
Speaker Change: Okay. That's great. Thank you.
Speaker Change: You.
Speaker Change: Our final question comes from the line of <unk> Satish from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Praneeth Satish: Thanks, maybe on that last point of being split, you know, 50% gas, renewables, LDC, and 50% liquids. I'm just thinking, maybe strategically, how do you think about the company, you know, pro forma for the LDC transactions? Is it more of a utility or midstream company? And then, in the context of that, do you think there should be more focus by investors on PE multiples and earnings rather than EBITDA and free cash flow, and then maybe even more leveraged credit from the rating agencies? Just kind of curious about your thoughts on that.
Satish: Thanks, maybe on that last point of being split, 50% gas renewables, LDC and 50% liquids.
Satish: I'm just thinking maybe strategically how you think about the company pro forma for the LDC transactions is it more of a utility or a midstream company and then I guess.
In the context of that do you think there should be more focus by investors on p/e multiples and earnings rather than EBITDA and free cash flow and then maybe even more leveraged credit from the rating agencies, just kind of curious for your thoughts on that yes.
Greg Ebel: Yeah, it's a bit of a I mean, I guess I would say the entire company we've moved to be more utility-like, right, even if you think about the MTS in Collins, a gang that pulled off that and is about to get approved, or even as you think about the renewable business, you know, we've structured our renewable business very differently from some of the folks that you see out there, i.e. So I think that's very utilitarian. You know, I think DCF's still the right look because, you know, you look at businesses like the liquids business that are generating a lot of cash flow, and they don't look as utility-like. So I think that's the right way to consider it. And then, obviously, I think dividend yield. Dividend yield relative to, you know, long bonds and 10-year bonds of the government.
Yes, it's a bit of it.
Satish: I mean, I guess I would say the entire company, we've moved to be more utility like right. Even if you think about the MTS.
Satish: Collins.
Satish: Gang that.
Satish: Told us that in both to get approved or even as you think about the renewable business, we've structured our renewable business very different from some of the folks that you see out there I E.
Satish: Long term power purchase contracts.
Satish: For projects, even before their belts are immediately upon construction, so I think thats very utility Lake.
Satish: I think I think Dcs still the right look because you may look at businesses like.
Satish: The liquids business that are generating a lot of cash flow and they don't look as utility like so I think that's the right way to consider it and then obviously I think dividend yield dividend yield relative to.
Satish: Long bonds and 10 year bonds of government I think that's the other way people should so I think it's a bit of a mix.
Greg Ebel: I think that's the other way people should look at it. So I think it's a bit of a mix. You know, and you're right. We have a little bit higher leverage for all the right reasons, no more risk than what you'd see in a pure midstream, but considerably less than what you'd see in major utilities in the United States.
Satish: And Youre right, we are a little bit higher leverage for all the right reasons no more risk than what you would see a pure midstream, but considerably less than what you would see major utilities in the United States.
Got it and then maybe just switching gears on Gray oak. It looks like your you are close to launching an open season for the expansion in the coming months.
Colin Grending: And then maybe just switching gears on to Grey Oak, it looks like you're close to launching an open season for the expansion in the coming months. Can you talk about when, if that goes well and you're successful, when that capacity could come into service? And then, you know, whether you'd be offering a joint tariff for transport and exports out of Ingleside? And if so, do you think that concept of bundling the transport and export will give you a competitive advantage? Because as we look at the basin itself, it is kind of overbuilt from a takeaway or egress perspective. Yeah, good question. I think Colin can take that.
Satish: Can you talk about if that.
Satish: It goes well and you are successful when that capacity could come into service and then whether you'd be offering a joint tariff for transport and exports out of Ingalls side.
Satish: And if so do you think that concept of bundling the transport and export will give you a competitive advantage because as we look at the basin itself. It is kind of overbuilt from a takeaway or egress perspective.
Satish: Yeah. Good question I think Colin can take that we've just had the board down at Ingalls side in the last few days for our board meetings a lot of excitement there. So Colin do you want to take that.
Colin Grending: We've just had the board down at Ingleside for the last few days for our board meetings. A lot of excitement there. So, Colin, do you want to take that? Yeah, sure. I wish I was still there. It's snowy up in Calgary here.
Colin: Yes, sure I wish I was still there its still way up in Calgary here. So.
Colin: The answer is yes, and yes, so you should.
Colin Grending: So the answer is yes and yes. So you should, the market should imminently expect, Basically, a grey open on Ingleside, during open season. I hope we can talk more about that at Enbridge Day. It's, as Greg alluded to, very efficient capital deployment here, you know, low, low, low multiples. Um, yes on integrated tariffs. We already have the cheapest path to water there. It's already a competitive advantage, but we can do more of that, and pipeline capacity to Corpus is, effectively, it's full already. Probably some space to Houston, but a very attractive path to Corpus.
Colin: The market should imminently expect.
Colin: Basically a great opening ingleside open season.
Here in the next few weeks.
Colin: I'll be talking about more about that at Enbridge day.
Colin: As Greg alluded to very efficient capital deployment here.
Colin: Low low low multiples.
Colin: Yes, yes on integrated tariffs.
Colin: We already have the cheapest path to the water there and it's already a competitive advantage, but we can do more of that.
Colin: And.
Colin: Pipeline capacity to corpus is.
Colin: Effectively full already probably some space to Houston, but very attractive path to corpus so.
Colin Grending: We want to bring some of that capacity on line. You know, call it 100 to 200,000 barrels a day as soon as we can. There is an appetite for that. It is a relatively efficient, simple, plumbing increase here, so we can bring some of that on. It is already 24 and some in 25. And, as a reminder, we've got a couple of million barrels of new tankage coming into service here in April. Um, independent of that that we sanctioned last year. The Crawl-Walk-Run approach continues towards our large ambition in the Permian to create a light supersystem to rival the heavy supersystem we have.
Colin: We want to bring some of that capacity on.
Colin: Call. It 100 to 200000 barrels a day as soon as we can.
Colin: The appetite for that.
Colin: It is a relatively.
Colin: Efficient simple.
Plumbing increase here. So we can bring some of that on in 'twenty four 'twenty five.
Colin: And as a reminder, we've got a couple of million barrels of new tankage coming into service here in April.
Colin: Independent of that that we sanctioned last year so.
Colin: The crawl walk run approach continues towards our large ambition in the in the Permian to create a.
Colin: Light Super system to rival the have you may have thanks for the question.
Colin Grending: Thanks for the question. Thank you. We have reached the end of our question and answer period. Rebecca, I will turn the call back over to you for some closing remarks. Great, thank you, and we appreciate your ongoing interest. As always, our investor relations team is available following the call for any additional questions that you may have. Again, thank you and have a great day. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: We have reached the end of our question and answer period, Rebecca I turn the call back over to you for some closing remarks.
Rebecca: Great. Thank you and we appreciate your ongoing interest in Enbridge.
Rebecca: As always our Investor relations team is available following the call for any additional questions that you may have once again, thank you and have a great day.
Speaker Change: This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation you may now disconnect.
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