Q4 2023 The Southern Company Earnings Call
Operator: Good afternoon. My name is Malika, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Southern Company Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. At that time, if you have a question, please press the 1 followed by the 4 on your telephone. If at any time during the conference you need to reach an operator, please press star 0. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, February 15, 2024. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Scott Gammill, Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead, sir.
Yeah.
Okay.
Oh.
[music].
Okay.
Maria: Good afternoon, My name is Maria and I will be your conference operator today.
Maria: This time I would like to welcome everyone to the Southern company fourth quarter 2023 earnings call.
Maria: All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.
Operator: After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. At that time, if you have a question, please press the 1 followed by the 4 on your telephone. If at any time during the conference you need to reach an operator, please press star 0.
Maria: After the speakers remarks, there will be a question and answer session at that time. If you have a question. Please press the one followed by the four on your telephone.
Maria: If at any time during the conference you need to reach an operator, Please press star zero.
Operator: As a reminder, this conference is being recorded February 15, 2024. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Scott Gammill, Vice President, Investor Relations, and Treasurer. Please go ahead, sir.
Maria: As a reminder, this conference is being recorded February 15th 2024, I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Scott Gammill, Vice President Investor Relations.
Scott Gammill: And Treasurer. Please go ahead Sir.
Scott Gammill: Thank you, Malika. Good afternoon, and welcome to Southern Company's fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. Joining me today are Chris Womack, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Southern Company; and Dan Tucker, Chief Financial Officer. Let me remind you, we'll be making forward-looking statements today in addition to providing historical information. Various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, including those discussed in our Form 10-K and subsequent securities filings. In addition, we'll present non-GAAP financial information on this call. Reconciliations to the applicable GAAP measure are included in the financial information we released this morning as well as the slides for this conference call, which are both available on our Investor Relations website at investor.southerncompany.com. At this time, I'll turn it over to Chris.
Scott Gammill: Thank you Monica good afternoon, and welcome to Southern company's fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. Joining me today are Chris Womack, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Southern Company, and Dan Tucker Chief Financial Officer.
Speaker Change: Let me remind you we'll be making forward looking statements. Today. In addition to providing historical information various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in the forward looking statements, including those discussed in our Form 10-K and subsequent securities filings.
Scott Gammill: In addition, we'll present non-GAAP financial information on this call. Reconciliations to the applicable GAAP measure are included in the financial information released this morning, as well as the slides for this conference call, which are both available on our Investor Relations website at investor.southerncompany.com. At this time, I'll turn it over to Chris. Thank you, Scott. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today.
In addition, we'll present non-GAAP financial information on this call. Reconciliations to the applicable GAAP measure are included in the financial information released this morning, as well as the slides for this conference call, which are both available on our Investor Relations website at investor.southerncompany.com. At this time, I'll turn it over to Chris.
Speaker Change: In addition, we will present non-GAAP financial information on this call reconciliations to the applicable GAAP measure are included in the financial information released this morning as well as the slides for this conference call, which are both available on our Investor Relations website at Investor <unk> Southern company Dot Com.
Chris Womack: Thank you, Scott. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. 2023 was an exceptional year for Southern Company, a year in which we proved once again that we can do extraordinary things, including delivering strong financial results in the face of unprecedented headwinds and the successful completion of Plant Vogtle Unit 3, the first newly constructed nuclear unit in the United States in over three decades. Since its July 30th in-service date, Unit 3's performance has exceeded our expectations, delivering over 5 million megawatt hours of safe, reliable, carbon-free energy across Georgia. Other noteworthy items for 2023 included, constructive resolution of the Vogtle 3 and 4 prudence process, resolving all issues of reasonableness, prudence and cost recovery; successfully completed construction and commissioning for a brand new 720-megawatt combined cycle plant on schedule and on time at Alabama Power's plant Barry; acquired two new solar projects at Southern Power, which once construction is complete, will add an additional 350-megawatts of carbon-free generation to its portfolio of fully contracted renewable generation; continued progress toward our greenhouse gas emission reduction goals, including our interim goal of a 50% reduction versus 2007 levels by 2030; achieving a 49% reduction in 2023; earned a National Accounts Award for outstanding customer engagement by the Edison Electric Institute and top honors from J.D. Power for residential and business customer satisfaction.
Speaker Change: At this time I will turn it over to Chris. Thank you Scott Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today.
Chris Womack: 2023 was an exceptional year for Southern, A year in which we proved once again that we can do extraordinary things, including delivering strong financial results in the face of unprecedented headwinds and the successful completion of Plant Vogel Unit 3, the first newly constructed nuclear unit in the United States in over three decades. Since its July 30th in-service date, Unit 3's performance has exceeded our expectations, delivering over 5 million megawatt-hours of safe, reliable, carbon-free energy across Georgia. Other noteworthy items for 2023 included. Constructive resolution of the Vogel 3 and 4 prudence process, resolving all issues of reasonableness, prudence, and cost recovery, successfully completed construction and commissioning for a brand new 720 megawatt combined cycle plant on schedule and on time at Alabama Power's Plant Barracks, acquired two new solar projects at Southern Power, which once construction is complete, will add an additional 350 megawatts of carbon-free generation to its portfolio of fully contracted renewable generation.
Chris Womack: 2023 was an exceptional year for southern company.
Chris Womack: A year in which we proved once again that we can do extraordinary things, including delivering strong financial results in the face of unprecedented headwinds and the successful completion of plant Vogtle unit three the <unk>.
Chris Womack: First newly constructed nuclear unit in the United States and over three decades.
Chris Womack: Since its July 30th in service date unit Three's performance has exceeded our expectations delivering over 5 million megawatt hours of safe reliable carbon free energy across Georgia.
Chris Womack: Other noteworthy items for 2023 included.
Chris Womack: A constructive resolution of the vogtle, three and four points process.
Chris Womack: Resolving all issues of reasonableness prudence and cost recovery.
Chris Womack: Successfully completed construction and commissioning for a brand new 720 megawatt combined cycle plant on schedule and on time, and Alabama powers plant Barry.
Chris Womack: Acquired two new solar projects at southern power, which once construction is complete we'll add an additional 350 megawatts of carbon free generation to its portfolio of fully contracted renewable generation.
Chris Womack: Continued progress toward our greenhouse gas emission reduction goals, including our interim goal of a 50% reduction versus 2007 levels by 2030 and achieving a 49% reduction in 2023, earned the National Accounts Award for Outstanding Customer Engagement by the Edison Electric Institute and top honors from J.D. Power for residential and business customer satisfaction, and just last week. Southern Company was ranked as the number one most admired electric and gas utility on Fortune Magazine's World's Most Admired Companies list for 2024.
Continued progress toward our greenhouse gas emission reduction goals, including our interim goal of a 50% reduction versus 2007 levels by 2030 and achieving a 49% reduction in 2023, earned the National Accounts Award for Outstanding Customer Engagement by the Edison Electric Institute and top honors from J.D. Power for residential and business customer satisfaction,
Chris Womack: Continued progress toward our greenhouse gas emission reduction goals, including our interim goal of a 50% reduction versus 2007 levels by 2030, achieving a 49% reduction in 2023.
Chris Womack: Earned in National Accounts award for outstanding customer engagement by the Edison Electric Institute.
Chris Womack: And top honors from J D power for residential and business customer satisfaction.
Chris Womack: And just last week, Southern Company was ranked as the number one most admired electric and gas utility in Fortune magazine's World's Most Admired Companies list for 2024. These achievements reflect our team's steadfast commitment to keep the customers and the communities we are privileged to serve at the center of everything we do. Throughout 2023, our electric and gas franchises continue to excel at the fundamentals and started this year strong as evidenced through our preparations and execution during January's winter storm, Heather, when electricity demands reach all the time winter peaks and Southern Company gas system continue to reliably serving customers throughout severe weather conditions across its four-state territory. Our ability to navigate through such severe weather events further demonstrates how our customers benefit from the combination of outstanding operational performance by each of our utilities and the value of our vertically integrated state-regulated business model.
Chris Womack: And just last week Southern company was ranked as the number one most admired electric and gas utility in Fortune magazine's world's most admired companies list for 2024.
Chris Womack: These achievements reflect our team's steadfast commitment to keep the customers and the communities we are privileged to serve at the center of everything we do. Throughout 2023, our electric and gas franchises continued to excel at the fundamentals and started this year strong, as evidenced by our preparations and execution during January's winter storm Heather. When electricity demands reached all-time winter peaks, and Southern Company Gas's system continued reliably serving customers throughout severe weather conditions across its four state territories.
Chris Womack: These achievements reflect our team's steadfast commitment to keep the customers and the communities. We are privileged to serve at the center of everything we do.
Chris Womack: Throughout 2023 high electric and gas franchises continued to excel at the fundamentals and started this year is strong as evidenced through our preparations and execution. During January is one of storm Heather.
Electricity demands reached all time winter peaks and southern company gas is system contingent reliably serving customers throughout severe weather conditions across its four state territory.
Chris Womack: Our ability to navigate through such severe weather events further demonstrates how our customers benefit from the combination of outstanding operational performance by each of our utilities and the value of our vertically integrated state-regulated business model. Our state's long-term integrated planning processes, which include adoption of important planning assumptions like a 26% winter reserve margin for our electric utilities, benefit our customers by providing a reliable and resilient mix of energy resources. Before turning the call over to Dan for a financial update, I'd like to provide an update on Vogel Unit 4. We continue to make meaningful progress toward the completion of Unit 4, with initial criticality achieved yesterday. Initial criticality represents a key step during startup, whereby operators for the first time safely begin the self-sustaining nuclear reaction to create heat for steam production.
Our ability to navigate through such severe weather events further demonstrates how our customers benefit from the combination of outstanding operational performance by each of our utilities and the value of our vertically integrated state-regulated business model.
Chris Womack: Our ability to navigate through such severe weather events further demonstrates how our customers benefit from the combination of outstanding operational performance by each of our utilities and the value of our vertically integrated state regulated business model.
Chris Womack: Our state's long-term integrated planning processes, which include adoption of important planning assumptions like a 26% winter reserve margin for our electric utilities benefit our customers by providing a reliable and resilient mix of energy resources. Before turning the call over to Dan for a financial update, I'd like to provide an update on Vogtle Unit 4. We continue to make meaningful progress toward the completion of Unit 4 with initial criticality achieved yesterday. Initial criticality represents a key step during startup whereby operators for the first time safely begin the self-sustaining nuclear reaction to create heat for steam production. As we approach the initial sync with the grid, Unit 4 continues with the remaining start-up and preoperational testing activities that perceive the declaration of in service, which is projected in the second quarter of 2024. Our 2024 adjusted earnings per share guidance range, which Dan will detail, shortly assumes Unit 4 achieves commercial operation in April. Dan, I’ll now turn the call over to you.
Chris Womack: Our state's long term integrated planning processes, which include adoption of important planning assumptions like a 26% when our reserve margin for our electric utilities benefited our customers by providing a reliable and resilient mix of energy resources.
Chris Womack: Before turning the call over to Dan for financial update.
Dan Tucker: Like to provide an update on Vogtle unit four.
Dan Tucker: We continue to make meaningful progress towards the completion of unit four with initial criticality achieved yesterday.
Dan Tucker: Initial credit initial criticality represents a key step doing startup.
Dan Tucker: Goodbye operators for the first time safely begin to self sustaining nuclear reaction to create heat for steam production.
Chris Womack: As we approach the initial sync with the grid, Unit 4 continues with the remaining startup and pre-operational testing activities that precede the declaration of end service, which is projected in the second quarter of 2024. Our 2024 Adjusted Earnings per Shared Guidance Range, which Dan will get to shortly, assumes Unit 4 achieves commercial operation in April. Dan, I'll now turn the call over to you. Thanks, Chris. And good afternoon,
As we approach the initial sync with the grid, Unit 4 continues with the remaining startup and pre-operational testing activities that precede the declaration of end service, which is projected in the second quarter of 2024. Our 2024 Adjusted Earnings per Shared Guidance Range, which Dan will get to shortly, assumes Unit 4 achieves commercial operation in April. Dan, I'll now turn the call over to you.
Dan Tucker: As we approached the initial thing with the grid.
Dan Tucker: For continuous with the remaining startup and pre operational testing activities that perceived the decoration of in service, which is projected in the second quarter of 2024.
Dan Tucker: Our 2024 adjusted earnings per share guidance range, which Dan will detail. Shortly assumes unit four achieved commercial operation in April Dan I'll now turn the call over to you.
Daniel S. Tucker: Thanks Chris and good afternoon everyone. As you can see from the materials we released this morning, we reported strong adjusted earnings per share of $3.65 for 2023, which was the very top of our 2023 guidance range. The primary drivers of our performance compared to 2022 are higher utility revenues and lower non-fuel O&M expenses and income taxes, somewhat offset by higher depreciation and interest expenses. Mild weather was also a significant headwind with 2023 marking the mildest year in our history for our electric service territories. Our ability to deliver 2023 adjusted results at the very top of guidance is a great testament to our team and to the resilience and strength of our portfolio of companies. A detailed reconciliation of our reported and adjusted results compared back to 2022 is included in today’s release and earnings package.
Dan Tucker: Thanks, Chris and good afternoon, everyone. As you can see from the materials. We released this morning, we reported strong adjusted earnings per share of $3 65 for.
Dan Tucker: As you can see from the materials we released this morning, we reported strong adjusted earnings per share of $3.65 for 2023, which was the very top of our 2023 guidance range. The primary drivers of our performance compared to 2022 are higher utility revenues and lower non-fuel O&M expenses and income tax, somewhat offset by higher depreciation and interest expenses. Mild weather was also a significant headwind, with 2023 marking the mildest year in our history for our electric service territory.
Dan Tucker: For 2023, which was the very top of our 2023 guidance range.
Dan Tucker: The primary drivers of our performance compared to 2022 or higher utility revenues and lower non fuel O&M expenses and income taxes somewhat offset by higher depreciation and interest expenses.
Dan Tucker: Mild weather was also a significant headwind with 2023, marking the mildest year in our history for our electric service territories.
Dan Tucker: Our ability to deliver 2023 adjusted results at the very top of guidance is a great testament to our team and to the resilience and strength of our portfolio of companies. A detailed reconciliation of our reported and adjusted results compared back to 2022 is included in today's release and earnings pack. Turning now to electricity sales and the economy, weather-adjusted retail electric sales were down 0.4% in 2023 compared to 2022.
Our ability to deliver 2023 adjusted results at the very top of guidance is a great testament to our team and to the resilience and strength of our portfolio of companies. A detailed reconciliation of our reported and adjusted results compared back to 2022 is included in today's release and earnings pack.
Dan Tucker: Our ability to deliver 2023 adjusted results at the very top of guidance is a great Testament to our team and to the resilience and strength of our portfolio of companies.
A detailed reconciliation of our reported and adjusted results compared back to 2022 <unk>.
Dan Tucker: This is included in today's release and earnings package.
Dan Tucker: Turning now to electricity sales in the economy.
Daniel S. Tucker: Turning now to electricity sales in the economy. Weather-adjusted retail electric sales were down 0.4% for 2023 compared to 2022. Strong usage drove commercial sales growth of 1.3% for the year, which was partially offset by lower residential usage with both commercial and residential sales impacted by the return to the office dynamic. We continue to see robust residential customer growth with the addition of over 46,000 residential electric customers and nearly 27,000 residential gas customers. Since 2020, we’ve added over 200,000 residential electric customers, which represents the highest four-year total in decades. Industrial sales finished down for the year nearly 2%, largely due to continued slowing in housing and construction-related sectors as well as lower sales to chemical companies due to outages and long planned plant closures.
Dan Tucker: Weather adjusted retail electric sales were down 0.4% for 2023 compared to 2022.
Dan Tucker: Strong usage drove commercial sales growth of 1.3% for the year, which was partially offset by lower residential usage, with both commercial and residential sales impacted by the return to the office. We continue to see robust residential customer growth, with the addition of over 46,000 residential electric customers and nearly 27,000 residential gas customers. Since 2020, we've added over 200,000 residential electric customers, which represents the highest four-year total in decades. However, industrial sales finished down for the year, nearly 2%, largely due to continued slowing in housing and construction-related sectors, as well as lower sales to chemical companies due to outages and long-planned plant closures.
Dan Tucker: Strong usage drove commercial sales growth of one 3% for the year, which was partially offset by lower residential usage with both commercial and residential sales impacted by the return to the office dynamic.
We continue to see robust residential customer growth with the addition of over 46000 residential electric customers and nearly 27000 residential gas customers.
Dan Tucker: Since 2020, we've added over 200000 residential electric customers, which represents the highest four year total in decades.
Dan Tucker: Industrial sales finished down for the year nearly 2% largely due to continued slowing in housing and construction related sectors as well.
Dan Tucker: As well as lower sales to chemical companies due to outages and long planned plant closures.
Dan Tucker: Consistent with the drivers detailed in Georgia Power's recently filed 2023 integrated resource plan update, economic development in our Southeast Service Territory remains incredibly strong. Several years of extraordinary success in attracting new and expanding businesses to our states underpins our long-term electricity sales forecast. While electricity sales growth is projected to remain around 1 to 2% for 2024 and 2025. Growth from 2025 to 2028 is projected to accelerate to an average of approximately 6% annually, with Georgia Power's total retail electric sales growth projected to be approximately 9% annually over this same period. The magnitude and velocity of this growth are significant drivers for the increased capital investments reflected in our current outlook. This projected growth also represents a tremendous opportunity to de-risk our outlook and benefit customers, as the substantial projected growth in kilowatt-hour sales from new manufacturing facilities and data centers has the potential to put downward pressure on existing customers' rates.
Daniel S. Tucker: Consistent with the drivers detailed in Georgia Power’s recently filed 2023 Integrated Resource Plan update, economic development in our Southeast service territory remains incredibly strong. Several years of extraordinary success in attracting new and expanding businesses to our states, underpins our long-term electricity sales forecast. While electricity sales growth is projected to remain around 1% to 2% for 2024 and 2025, growth from 2025 to 2028 is projected to accelerate to an average of approximately 6% annually, with Georgia Power’s total retail electric sales growth projected to be approximately 9% annually over this same period. The magnitude and velocity of this growth are significant drivers for the increased capital investments reflected in our current outlook.
Dan Tucker: Consistent with the drivers detailed in Georgia, Power's recently filed 2023 integrated resource plan update.
Dan Tucker: Economic development in our southeast service territory remains incredibly strong.
Dan Tucker: Several years of extraordinary success in attracting new and expanding businesses to our states underpins our long term electricity sales forecast well.
While electricity sales growth is projected to remain around 1% to 2% for 2024 and 2025.
Dan Tucker: Growth from 2025 to <unk> 28 is projected to accelerate to an average of approximately 6% annually with Georgia Power's total retail electric sales growth projected to be approximately 9% annually over the same period.
Dan Tucker: The magnitude and velocity of this growth are significant drivers for the increased capital investments reflected in our current outlook.
Daniel S. Tucker: This projected growth also represents a tremendous opportunity to de-risk our outlook and benefit customers as a substantial projected growth in kilowatt hour sales from new manufacturing facilities and data centers has the potential to put downward pressure on existing customers’ rates. Turning now to our earnings projections for 2024 and beyond. Our adjusted earnings per share guidance range for 2024 is $3.95 to $4.05, and our projected long-term adjusted EPS growth rate is 5% to 7% from that range. In early 2021, we provided the investment community with a stable post Vogtle 3 and 4 construction and EPS projection, with an initial and reasonably wide 2024 guidance range. It is perhaps the greatest of understatement to say that the world has changed a lot since early 2021.
Dan Tucker: This projected growth also represents a tremendous opportunity to derisk, our outlook and benefit customers as a substantial predict projected growth in kilowatt hour sales from new manufacturing facilities and data centers has the potential to put downward pressure on existing customers' rates.
Dan Tucker: Turning now to our earnings projections for 2024 and beyond. Our adjusted earnings per share guidance range for 2024 is $3.95 to $4.05, and our projected long-term adjusted EPS growth rate is 5-7% from that range. In early 2021, we provided the investment community with a stable post-Vogel 3 and 4 construction EPS projection with an initial, and reasonably wide, 2024 guidance range. It is perhaps the greatest of understatements to say that the world has changed a lot since early 2021. On a macro basis, we've seen significant inflation and higher and then higher for longer interest rates, which alone has translated to interest expense for 2024 being hundreds of millions of dollars higher than any of us assumed three years ago.
Turning now to our earnings projections for 2024 and beyond. Our adjusted earnings per share guidance range for 2024 is $3.95 to $4.05, and our projected long-term adjusted EPS growth rate is 5-7% from that range. In early 2021, we provided the investment community with a stable post-Vogel 3 and 4 construction EPS projection with an initial, and reasonably wide, 2024 guidance range. It is perhaps the greatest of understatements to say that the world has changed a lot since early 2021.
Dan Tucker: Turning now to our earnings projections for 2024 and beyond.
Our adjusted earnings per share guidance range for 'twenty 'twenty four is $3 95 to $4 and five sets and our projected long term adjusted EPS growth rate is 5% to 7% from that range.
Dan Tucker: In early 2021, we provided the investment community with a stable post vogtle, three and four construction EPS projection.
With an initial and reasonably wide 2024 guidance range.
Dan Tucker: It is perhaps the greatest of understatement to say that the world has changed a lot since early 2021.
Daniel S. Tucker: On a macro basis, we’ve seen significant inflation and higher and then higher for longer interest rates, which alone has translated to interest expense for 2024 hundreds of millions of dollars higher than any of us assumed three years ago. Additionally, relative to our projection in early 2021, the projected in-service date for Vogtle 4 moved into 2024 from 2023. In the face of these challenges, we’ve continued to work extremely hard to grow our business and to create value for investors. Compared to our projections in early 2021, our state-regulated utility rate base for 2024 is projected to be approximately $6 billion higher, while lower O&M expenses and higher sales are projected to contribute hundreds of millions of dollars more than previously projected to help maintain affordability and help pay for those investments.
Dan Tucker: On a macro basis, we've seen significant inflation and higher and then higher for longer interest rates, which alone has translated to interest expense for 2020 for hundreds of millions of dollars higher than any of us assumed three years ago. Additionally.
Dan Tucker: Additionally, relative to our projection in early 2021, the projected end service date for Vogel 4 moved into 2024 from 2023. In the face of these challenges, we've continued to work extremely hard to grow our business and to create value for our investors. Compared to our projections in early 2021, our state-regulated utility rate base for 2024 is projected to be approximately $6 billion higher, while lower O&M expenses and higher sales are projected to contribute hundreds of millions of dollars more than previously projected to help maintain affordability and help pay for those investments. We estimated adjusted earnings of $0.90 per share for the first quarter of 2020.
Additionally, relative to our projection in early 2021, the projected end service date for Vogel 4 moved into 2024 from 2023. In the face of these challenges, we've continued to work extremely hard to grow our business and to create value for our investors. Compared to our projections in early 2021, our state-regulated utility rate base for 2024 is projected to be approximately $6 billion higher, while lower O&M expenses and higher sales are projected to contribute hundreds of millions of dollars more than previously projected to help maintain affordability and help pay for those investments.
Dan Tucker: Additionally, relative to our projection in early 2021, the projected in service date for Vogel for moved into 2024 from 2023 and.
Dan Tucker: In the face of these challenges we've continued to work extremely hard to grow our business and to create value for our investors compared to our projections in early 2021, our state regulated utility rate base for 2024 is projected to be approximately $6 billion higher while lower O&M expenses.
Dan Tucker: And higher sales are projected to contribute hundreds of millions of dollars more than previous previously projected to help maintain affordability and help pay for those investments.
We estimated adjusted earnings of 90 cents per share for the first quarter of 2024.
Daniel S. Tucker: We estimated adjusted earnings of $0.90 per share for the first quarter of 2024. Our capital investment plan continues to be well over 95% attributable to our state-regulated utility businesses. The current five-year capital investment forecast, totaling $48 billion, reflects a $5 billion increase in state-regulated utility investments relative to our forecast a year ago. This 12% increase in capital spending reflects our ongoing efforts to further increase the resiliency of our electric and gas networks and our technology infrastructure. It also partially reflects new resources proposed in Georgia Power’s 2023 IRP update, about 60% of the brick-and-mortar megawatts proposed. We have maintained our disciplined measured approach to capital forecasting for our state-regulated utility businesses.
Dan Tucker: Our capital investment plan continues to be well over 95% attributable to our state-regulated utility business. The current five-year capital investment forecast, totaling $48 billion, reflects a $5 billion increase in state-regulated utility investments relative to our forecast a year ago. This 12% increase in capital spending reflects our ongoing efforts to further increase the resiliency of our electric and gas networks and our technology infrastructure. It also partially reflects new resources proposed in Georgia Power's 2023 IRP update. About 60% of the brick-and-mortar megawatts proposed. However, we have maintained our disciplined, measured approach to capital forecasting for our state-regulated utility businesses.
Dan Tucker: Our capital investment plan continues to be well over 95% attributable to our state regulated utility businesses.
Dan Tucker: The current five year capital investment forecast totaling $48 billion reflects a $5 billion increase in state regulated utility investments relative to our forecast a year ago.
This 12% increase in capital spending reflects our ongoing efforts to further increase the resiliency of our electric and gas networks in our technology infrastructure.
Dan Tucker: It also partially reflects new resources proposed in Georgia, Power's 2023 IOP update.
Dan Tucker: About 60% of the brick and mortar megawatts proposed.
Dan Tucker: We have maintained our disciplined measured approach to capital forecasting for our state regulated utility businesses.
Dan Tucker: Given the magnitude of change in our projected sales growth and the time frame in which new resources are needed to serve higher peak demands, we felt it was appropriate to go ahead and reflect certain new resources in our capital plan. Additionally, our capital investment forecasts tend to grow, especially in later years, as the visibility into customer additions improves, regulatory processes unfold, compliance obligations evolve, and our long-term integrated system planning is refined. While the increases in this year's five-year forecast represent an outsized upward adjustment due to the scale and velocity of the projected growth in the near term, we do believe it's reasonable to expect a historical trend of capital increases to continue going forward. On its own, our capital investment forecast of $48 billion supports annualized, state-regulated rate-based growth of approximately 6%, providing a solid foundation for our long-term outlook. Any upsides to the capital forecast will simply serve to add durability to an already strong outlook. Strong investment grade credit ratings remain a priority.
Daniel S. Tucker: Given the magnitude of change in our projected sales growth and the timeframe in which new resources are needed to serve higher peak demands, we felt it was appropriate to go ahead and reflect certain new resources in our capital plan. Additionally, our capital investment forecast tend to grow, especially in the later years as the visibility into customer additions improves, regulatory processes unfold compliance obligations evolve and our long-term integrated system planning is refined. While the increases in this year’s five-year forecast represent an outsized upward adjustment due to the scale and velocity of the projected growth in the near-term, we do believe it’s reasonable to expect a historical trend of capital increases to continue going forward.
Dan Tucker: Given the magnitude of change in our projected sales growth in the timeframe in which new resources are needed to serve higher peak demands. We felt it was appropriate to go ahead and reflect certain new resources and our capital plan.
Dan Tucker: Additionally, our capital investment forecast tend to grow, especially in the later years as the visibility into customer additions improves regulatory processes unfold compliance obligations evolve and our long term integrated system planning as refined.
The increases in this year's five year forecasts represent an outsized upward adjustment due to the scale and velocity of the projected growth in the near term.
Dan Tucker: We do believe it's reasonable to expect the historical trend of capital increases to continue going forward.
Dan Tucker: On its own our capital investment forecast of $48 billion supports annualized state regulated rate base growth of approximately 6% providing.
Daniel S. Tucker: On its own, our capital investment forecast of $48 billion supports annualized state-regulated rate base growth of approximately 6%, providing a solid foundation for our long-term outlook. Any upside to the capital forecast will simply serve to add durability to an already strong outlook. Strong investment-grade credit ratings remain a priority. We continue to believe that in order to be a high-quality equity investment, a company must also have high-quality credit. As we near completion of Vogtle Unit 4, the reduction in major project construction risk and the improvement in our FFO should strengthen and meaningfully improve our credit profile to help ensure we preserve what we believe will be a positively differentiated profile. We are also turning on our internal equity plans to fund the incremental capital investment at our subsidiaries that I highlighted earlier.
Dan Tucker: Providing a solid foundation for our long term outlook.
Dan Tucker: Any upsides to the capital forecast will simply served to add durability to an already strong outlook.
Dan Tucker: Strong investment grade credit ratings remain a priority we continue to believe that in order to be a high quality equity investment. The company must also have high quality credit.
Dan Tucker: We continue to believe that in order to be a high quality equity investment, a company must also have high quality credit. As we near completion of Vogel Unit 4, the reduction in major project construction risk and the improvement in our FFO should strengthen and meaningfully improve our credit profile. To help ensure we preserve what we believe will be a positively differentiated profile, we are also turning to our internal equity plans to fund the incremental capital investment at our subsidiaries that I highlighted earlier. These plans typically provide approximately $350 million of new equity annually.
We continue to believe that in order to be a high quality equity investment, a company must also have high quality credit. As we near completion of Vogel Unit 4, the reduction in major project construction risk and the improvement in our FFO should strengthen and meaningfully improve our credit profile. To help ensure we preserve what we believe will be a positively differentiated profile, we are also turning to our internal equity plans to fund the incremental capital investment at our subsidiaries that I highlighted earlier.
Dan Tucker: As we near completion of Vogtle unit four the reduction in major project construction risk and the improvement in our F. F O should strengthen and meaningfully improve our credit profile.
Dan Tucker: To help ensure we preserve what we believe will be a positively differentiated profile. We are also turning on our internal equity plans to fund the incremental capital investment at our subsidiaries that have highlighted earlier.
Dan Tucker: These plans typically provide approximately $350 million of new equity annually.
Daniel S. Tucker: These plans typically provide approximately $350 million of new equity annually. Additionally, we’ll preserve our financing flexibility and optionality with a continuous focus on preserving and improving shareholder value. For example, we will continue to maintain an at-the-market or ATM plan to partially finance potential additional increases in capital spending in our subsidiaries or potentially, to partially refinance callable hybrid securities, if we determine doing so preserves or improves our credit and long-term EPS objectives. Southern Company strives to deliver a superior risk-adjusted total shareholder return, and we believe the plan that we’ve laid out supports that objective. Our customer and community-focused business model the growing investments in our premier state-regulated utility franchises and the priority that we place on strong credit quality and our remarkable dividend history all contributes toward making Southern Company a premier investment. Chris, I’ll now turn the call back over to you.
Dan Tucker: Additionally, we will preserve our financing flexibility and optionality with a continuous focus on preserving and improving shareholder value. For example, we will continue to maintain an at-the-market, or ATM, plan to partially finance potential additional increases in capital spending on our subsidiaries or potentially to partially refinance callable hybrid securities if we determine doing so preserves or improves our credit and long-term EPS objectives. Southern Company strives to deliver a superior risk-adjusted total shareholder return, and we believe the plan that we've laid out supports that objective. Our customer and community-focused business model, the growing investments in our premier state-regulated utility franchises, and the priority that we place on strong credit quality, and our remarkable dividend history, all contribute toward making Southern Company a premier investment.
Dan Tucker: Additionally, we will preserve our financing flexibility and optionality with our continuous focus on preserving and improving shareholder value. For example, we will continue to maintain an at the market or ATM plan too.
Dan Tucker: To partially finance potential additional increases in capital spending at our subsidiaries or potentially to partially refinance callable hybrid securities. If we determine doing so preserves or improves our credit and long term EPS objectives.
Dan Tucker: Southern company strives to deliver a superior risk adjusted total shareholder return and we believe the plan that we've laid out supports that objective or.
Dan Tucker: Our customer and community focused business model the growing investments in our Premier state regulated utility franchises and the priority that we place on strong credit quality and a remarkable dividend history, all contributes towards making southern company, our Premier investment Chris I'll now turn the call back over to you.
Chris Womack: Chris, I now turn the call back over to you. Thank you, Dan. Again, let me say that nney had an exceptional year in 2023.
Chris, I now turn the call back over to you.
Chris Womack: Thank you Dan again, let me say.
Chris Womack: Thank you, Dan. Again, let me say, Southern Company had an exceptional year in 2023. We didn’t just meet challenges head on. We rose above them while remaining committed to keeping customers and communities in the center of everything that we do. I am extraordinarily proud of the hard work, the collaboration, the perseverance and the leadership that our teams show throughout the year to enable us to achieve these outstanding results. Having a team prepared to rise to such new heights doesn’t just happen. For decades, Southern Company has prioritized investing in our people, with a focus on positioning our leaders and their teams to provide the exceptional service customers expect to deliver the innovative solutions needed in an evolving energy landscape and to support growing the communities we are privileged to serve.
Southern company had an exceptional year in 2023.
Chris Womack: We didn't just meet challenges head on; we rose above them while remaining committed to keeping customers and communities in the center of everything that we do. I am extraordinarily proud of the hard work, the collaboration, the perseverance, and the leadership that our team showed throughout the year to enable us to achieve these outstanding results. Having a team prepared to rise to such new heights doesn't just happen.
Chris Womack: We didn't just meet challenges head on we rose above them, while remaining committed to keeping customers and communities in the center of everything that we do.
Chris Womack: I am extraordinarily proud of the hard work the collaboration the perseverance and the leadership that our team show throughout the year to enable us to achieve these outstanding results.
Chris Womack: Having the team prepared to rise to such new Heights doesn't just happen.
Chris Womack: For decades, Southern Company has prioritized investing in our people with a focus on positioning our leaders and their teams to provide the exceptional service customers expect, to deliver the innovative solutions needed in an evolving energy landscape, and to support growing the communities we are privileged to serve. As you all know, our company implemented a leadership transition in early 2023 rather than simply fill a handful of vacant seats. We embraced it as a grand opportunity. During 2023, we facilitated 75 officer-level changes throughout the company.
For decades, Southern Company has prioritized investing in our people with a focus on positioning our leaders and their teams to provide the exceptional service customers expect, to deliver the innovative solutions needed in an evolving energy landscape, and to support growing the communities we are privileged to serve.
Chris Womack: For decades, Southern company is prioritize investing in our people with a focus on positioning our leaders and their teams to provide the exceptional service customers expect to deliver the innovative solutions needed in an evolving energy landscape and to support growing the communities we are privileged to serve.
As you all know our company implemented a leadership transition in early 2023.
Chris Womack: As you all know, our company implemented a leadership transition in early 2023. Rather than simply fill a handful of vacant seats, we embraced it as a grand opportunity. During 2023, we facilitated 75 officer level changes throughout the company. The changes brought renewed energy and excitement, and more importantly, and intentionally, the movement served to further strengthen what we believe to be the deepest and best bench in the industry. I am excited about the future of this company, and I’m excited about our team and its ability to deliver the results, all our stakeholders, customers and investors alike expect from Southern Company. Thank you again for joining us this afternoon and for your continued interest in Southern Company. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.
Chris Womack: Rather than simply feel a handful of vacant seats.
Embraced it as a grant opportunity.
Chris Womack: During 2023, we facilitated 75 officer level changes throughout the company the changes brought renewed energy and excitement and more importantly, and intentionally the moon to serve to further strengthen what we believe to be the deepest and best bench in the industry.
Chris Womack: The changes brought renewed energy and excitement, and more importantly and intentionally, the movement served to further strengthen what we believe to be the deepest and best bench in the industry. I'm excited about the future of this company. And I'm excited about our team and its ability to deliver results for all our stakeholders, customers, and investors alike. Respect from Southern Company.
Chris Womack: I am excited about the future of this company.
Chris Womack: And I am excited about our team and its ability to deliver the results all our stakeholders customers and investors alike.
Chris Womack: Expect from Southern company.
Operator: Thank you again for joining us this afternoon and for your continued interest in Southern Company. Operator, we are now ready to take questions. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen on the phone lines, if you would like to register for a question, please press 1 followed by the 4 on your telephone. You will hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request. If your question has been answered and you would like to withdraw your registration, please press the 1 followed by the 3.
Thank you again for joining us this afternoon and for your continued interest in Southern Company. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.
Speaker Change: Thank you again for joining us this afternoon and for your continued interest in Southern company operator, we're now ready to take questions.
Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen on the phone line, if you'd like to register for a question, please press the 1 followed by the 4 on your telephone. You will hear a three tone prompt to acknowledge your request. If your question has been answered and you'd like to withdrawl your registration, please press the 1 followed by the 3. Once again a reminder, you can press 14 to ask a question. One moment, please. Our first phone question is from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: Ladies and gentlemen on the phone lines, if he would like.
Speaker Change: Like to register for a question. Please press the one followed by the four on your telephone.
Speaker Change: Here at <unk> Com technology request. If your question has been answered and I would like to withdraw your registration. Please press. The one followed by the three months' again as a reminder, you can pass one four to ask a question.
Shar Pourreza: Once again, as a reminder, you can press 1-4 to ask a question. Our first phone question is from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead; your line is open.
Speaker Change: Please.
Speaker Change: Yeah.
Speaker Change: Our first question is from the line of Shar <unk> with Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Speaker Change: Hey, Shar, what Chris and Dan.
Shar Pourreza: Hey, Chris and Dan. Good afternoon. Just quickly on the new guidance that you rolled forward. Does the new '24 estimate range still include a Vogtle charge? So should we be adding back $0.05 or so to grow off the 5% to 7% like you’ve talked about in the past? And sort of that new 6% rate base growth estimate now comes with equity, I guess, what’s the comfort level of hitting the midpoint of that EPS growth range, which you just reiterated? Thanks.
Good afternoon.
Dan Tucker: Just quickly on the new guidance that you rolled forward. Does the new 24-estimate range still include a Vogel chart? So should we be adding back 5 cents or so to grow off the 5 to 7% like you've talked about in the past? And sort of that new 6% rate-based growth estimate now comes with equity? I guess what's the comfort level of hitting the midpoint of that EPS growth range, which you just reiterated? Thanks.
Shar: Just quickly on the new guidance that you rolled forward.
Shar: Does the new 24 estimate range still include a vogel charge, so should we be adding back five.
Shar: Or so to grow off the 5% to 7% like you've talked about in the past and sort of that new 6% rate base growth estimate now comes with equity I guess, what's the comfort level of hitting the midpoint of that EPS growth range, which you just reiterated thanks.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yes. Thanks for the question, Shahriar. And I know there’s a lot of focus on this. I think we’re always fascinated with the precision with which everyone wants to inhale all this down. So, let’s start with the guidance range. Yes, I think, it absolutely includes impacts from Vogtle 4, not only being in 2024 at all, but certainly going into, as we’ve assumed in the guidance range, April. I mean, if you add all that up, that’s $0.08 of incremental impact on 2024 relative to what it would have been if the project been lined in 2023. But we haven’t adjusted a range by that full amount, by any means. And what we’re doing is using the flexibility, not unlike what we did in 2023 with the mildest year ever to kind of mitigate that.
Speaker Change: Yeah. Thanks for the question Shar and I know, there's a lot of focus on this I think we're we're always fascinated with the precision with which everyone wants the to nail this down.
The.
Speaker Change: So let's start with the guidance range, Yes, I think it absolutely includes impacts from Vogel for not only being in 24 at all but certainly going into as we've assumed in the guidance range April I mean, if you add all that up that's.
Dan Tucker: Yes, it absolutely includes, impacts from Vogel 4, not only being in 24 at all, but certainly going into, as we've assumed in the guidance range, April. I mean, if you add all that up, that's... That's $0.08 of incremental impact on 2024 relative to what it would have been if the project had been in line in 2023, but we haven't adjusted our range by that full amount by any means, and what we're doing is, using the flexibility not unlike what we did in 2023 with the mildest year ever to kind of mitigate that those are the kind of mitigations and flexibility items that aren't necessarily available every year you you have to maintain the system you've got to make sure you're prioritizing service to customers and so the that flexibility is limited we're using it this year and and that will diminish what we have the opportunity to do going forward But also, I think what's not factored in is a couple of other important nuances, you know, we, we thought 40 slides was enough, but maybe we needed one more slide to kind of draw how we always think about, our guidance range and our growth range. We don't think about, The 5 to 7% being off of the midpoint, we've always kind of drawn those trajectories off the top of it and off the bottom of it. So 7% off the top, 5% off the bottom.
Yes, it absolutely includes, impacts from Vogel 4, not only being in 24 at all, but certainly going into, as we've assumed in the guidance range, April. I mean, if you add all that up, that's... That's $0.08 of incremental impact on 2024 relative to what it would have been if the project had been in line in 2023, but we haven't adjusted our range by that full amount by any means, and what we're doing is, using the flexibility not unlike what we did in 2023 with the mildest year ever to kind of mitigate that
That's <unk> <unk> of incremental impact on 2024 relative to what it would have been if the project in line in 'twenty, two 'twenty, three and but we haven't adjusted our range.
Speaker Change: That full amount by any means and what we're doing is.
Speaker Change: Using the flexibility not unlike what we did in 2023 with the mildest year ever.
Daniel S. Tucker: Those are the kind of mitigations and flexibility items that aren’t necessarily available every year. You have to maintain the system, you’ve got to make sure you’re prioritizing service to customers. And so that flexibility is limited. We’re using it this year and that will diminish what we have the opportunity to do going forward. But also, I think what’s not factored in is a couple of other important nuances. We thought 40 slides was enough, but maybe we needed one more slide to kind of draw how we always think about our guidance range and our growth range. We don’t think about the 5% to 7% being off of the midpoint. We’ve always kind of drawn those trajectories off the top of it and off the bottom of it. So 7% off the top, 5% off the bottom. I think if you do that from this current range, it captures every reasonable estimate that’s out there for 2025 and 2026. When it comes to the rate base growth, look, we were at 6% last year. We just added $5 billion of capital to the plan. We didn’t add all the capital that we see as possible. That kind of incremental capital additions opportunity still exists. So yeah, our ability to grow rate base, and yeah, it’s mitigated ever so slightly by a fraction of a percent of increased shares over time. Our ability to hit our numbers is as solid as it’s ever been.
Speaker Change: Kind of mitigate that those are the kind of mitigation and flexibility items.
Speaker Change: Aren't necessarily available every year.
Speaker Change: To maintain the system, you've got to make sure you're prioritizing service to customers and to the that flexibility is limited we're using it this year and that will diminish what we have the opportunity to do going forward.
Speaker Change: But also I think what's not factored in as a couple of other important nuances.
Speaker Change: We thought 40 slides was enough, but maybe we needed one more slide to kind of draw how we always think about.
Speaker Change: Our guidance range and our growth range, we don't think about.
Speaker Change: The 5% to 7% being off of the midpoint, we've always kind of draw on those trajectories off the top of it and off the bottom of it so 7% off the top 5% off the bottom I think if you do that from this current range. It captures every reasonable estimate that's out there for 2025 and 2026 when it come.
Dan Tucker: I think if you do that from this current range, it captures every reasonable estimate that's out there for 2025 and 2026. When it comes to rate-based growth, look, we were at 6% last year. We just added $5 billion of capital to the plan. We didn't add all the capital that we see as possible.
Speaker Change: The rate base growth look we were at 6% last year and we just added $5 billion of capital to the plan, we didn't add all the capital that we see as possible that that kind of incremental capital additions opportunity still exists. So yeah, our ability to grow rate base in.
Dan Tucker: That kind of incremental capital additions opportunity still exists. So, yeah, our ability to grow rate-based and, yeah, it's mitigated ever so slightly by a fraction of a percent of increased shares over time. But our ability to hit our numbers is as solid as it's ever been.
Speaker Change: Yes, it's mitigated ever so slightly by a fraction of a percent of increase shares over time, our ability to hit our numbers is as solid as it's ever been.
Shar Pourreza: Got it. Okay. That’s helpful, Dan. And then just lastly, I know one of your peers has spoken pretty extensively on sort of nuclear PTCs, and obviously expects to receive hundreds of millions of dollars a year to fund sort of that capital plan. I guess, does the plan today — do you expect to receive anything material on the nuclear PTC fund? Is it part of any of your credit metrics or funding plans? Thanks.
Speaker Change: Got it Okay. That's helpful. And then just lastly, I know.
Speaker Change: One of your peers.
Spoken pretty extensively on sort of nuclear Ptc's, and obviously expects to receive hundreds of millions of dollars a year to fund sort of the capital plan I guess does the plan today do you expect to receive anything material on the nuclear PTC fund is it part of any of your credit metrics or funding plans.
Speaker Change: Yes, yes.
Speaker Change: Thanks, Shar, we have not factored.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yeah. We — yes, thanks, Shar. We have not factored any cash flow from nuclear PTCs into our outlook. We’ve got a terrific plan with an improving FFO to debt metric that’s several hundred basis points above any of our threshold over time, and frankly improves every year in the forecast that I look at without those nuclear PTCs. Is there the opportunity for us to capture some of those PTCs? We think there very well could be. We’re not counting on it. And to the extent we do, we’ll flow those to customers to the most practical amount of time possible. And so we’re — it’s not going to be a factor in kind of how our metrics or earnings look.
Speaker Change: Any cash flow from nuclear P. T CS into our outlook, we've got a terrific plan with an improving <unk> to debt metric, that's several hundred basis points above any of our threshold overtime and frankly improves every year in the forecast that I look at without those nuclear Ptc's is there the opera.
Speaker Change: <unk> for us to capture some of those ptc's.
Dan Tucker: We think there very well could be, but we're not counting on it, and to the extent we do, we'll flow those to customers in the most practical amount of time possible, and so it's not going to be a factor in kind of how our metrics are earned. Terrific. Thank you, guys. Super helpful, Dan, really.
We think there very well could be, but we're not counting on it, and to the extent we do, we'll flow those to customers in the most practical amount of time possible, and so it's not going to be a factor in kind of how our metrics are earned.
Speaker Change: There very well could be we're not counting on it and to the extent, we do we will flow those to customers in the most practical amount of time possible and so it's not going to be a factor in kind of how our metrics our earnings look.
Speaker Change: Terrific. Thank you guys Super helpful. Dan really thank you.
Shar Pourreza: Terrific. Thank you, guys. Super helpful, Dan, really thank you.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yeah, you bet. Thanks, y'all.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yeah, you bet.
Dan Tucker: Yeah, you bet. Thanks Shar.
Chris Womack: Thanks, Shar.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: Our next question is from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
Chris Womack: Good afternoon, Steve. Yeah, hi, good afternoon. Hey, Chris, Dan.
Chris Womack: Good afternoon, Steve.
Steve Fleishman: Good afternoon, Steve Hi, Good afternoon, Hey, Chris Dan So.
Steve Fleishman: Hi. Good afternoon. Hey, Chris, Dan. So just — I think you’ve talked about targeting a 17% FFO to debt, which is differentiated. When do you expect you’ll be there, let’s say, in 2025, when you have first full year of bulk units running? When do you expect to be there?
Dan Tucker: So, just... I think you've talked about targeting a 17% FFO to debt, which is differentiated, when do you expect you'll be there, let's say in 2025 when you have the first full year of both units running? Yeah, when do you expect to be there? Yeah, so I've always kind of said we see a forecast that gets us to 17-ish. That's the way I've characterized it in the past. So let me tell you where we are as a speaker today. And I think it's still differentiated and a terrific story.
So, just... I think you've talked about targeting a 17% FFO to debt, which is differentiated, when do you expect you'll be there, let's say in 2025 when you have the first full year of both units running? Yeah, when do you expect to be there?
Speaker Change: <unk>.
Steve Fleishman: I think you've talked about targeting a 17% <unk> to debt.
Steve Fleishman: Which is differentiated when do you do.
Steve Fleishman: Do you expect you'll be there, let's say in 2025, when you first full year of volatile.
Steve Fleishman: Both units running.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yeah. So, I’ve always kind of said we see a forecast that gets us to 17-ish, it’s the way I’ve characterized it in the past. So, let me tell you where we are, Steve, here today, and I think it’s still differentiated and a terrific story and we’re doing everything we can to make sure we’re being conservative in the way we think about this. So, if we just think about Moody’s metrics, our actual result for 2023 was 14%. Keep in mind, that’s before Vogtle 4 is in service. 2024, with Vogtle in service on the timeline, we believe those metrics will improve by more than 100 basis points in 2024. The weight of the incremental capital that we’re deploying and the fact that some of this is kind of long live construction, you think about building new gas plants at Georgia or other things, there’s a bit of regulatory lag that weighs a little bit on credit metrics.
Steve Fleishman: When do you expect to be there.
Yeah. So we've always kind of said, we'd see a forecast that gets us to 17 ish is the way I've characterized it in the past. So let me tell you where we are sitting here today and I think it's still differentiated and a terrific story and were doing everything we can to make sure we're being conservative in the way we think about.
Dan Tucker: And we're doing everything we can to make sure we're being conservative in the way we think about this. So if we just think about Moody's metrics, our actual result for 2023 was 14%. Keep in mind, that's before Vogel 4 was in service.
Steve Fleishman: This so we just think about Moody's metrics. Our actual result for 2023 was 14% keep in mind, that's before vote before is in service.
Dan Tucker: In 2024, with Vogel in service on the timeline, we believe those metrics will improve by more than 100 basis points in 2024. The weight of the incremental capital that we're deploying and the fact that some of this is kind of long-lived construction, you think about building, you know, new gas plants in Georgia or other things, there's a bit of regulatory lag that weighs a little bit on credit metrics. And as that resolves itself, cash flow improves. So with the forecast that I see, it goes from 14 to over 15 and 24, and about a 50 to 60 basis point improvement every year after that, over time. And that's a function of that capital. It's, you know, we're issuing equity to kind of continue the improvement. And then there's a little bit of impact in the short term for under-recovered fuel as that gets collected.
In 2024, with Vogel in service on the timeline, we believe those metrics will improve by more than 100 basis points in 2024. The weight of the incremental capital that we're deploying and the fact that some of this is kind of long-lived construction, you think about building, you know, new gas plants in Georgia or other things, there's a bit of regulatory lag that weighs a little bit on credit metrics.
Steve Fleishman: <unk> 2024, with Vogel and service on the timeline, we believe those metrics will improve by more than 100 basis points in 2024.
Steve Fleishman: The weight of the incremental capital that we're deploying and the fact that some of this is kind of long live construction you think about building.
Steve Fleishman: New gas plants in Georgia, or other things there is a bit of regulatory lag that weighs.
Daniel S. Tucker: And as that resolves itself, cash flow improves. So with the forecast that I see go from 14 to over 15 in 2024, and about a 50 to 60 basis point improvement every year after that over time and that’s a function of that capital, it’s — we’re issuing the equity to continue the improvement. And then there’s a little bit of impact in the short-term for under-recovered fuel that as that gets collected and the debt goes away, that also adds to that upward trajectory. So, in my five-year forecast, we get kind of in that mid-16 towards 17 range. But again, every year in the five years is an improving story, and still hundreds of basis points above our thresholds.
Steve Fleishman: A little bit on credit metrics and as that resolves itself cash flow improve so with a forecast that I see go from 14.
Steve Fleishman: Over 15 in 'twenty, four and about a 50 to 60 basis point improvement every year after that overtime and that's a function of that capital.
Steve Fleishman: <unk> were issuing the equity to kind of continue the improvement and then there's a little bit of impact in the short term for under recovered fuel that as that gets collected in the debt goes away that also kind of adds to that upward trajectory. So in my five year forecast, we get kind of in that mid 16.
Steve Fleishman: And the debt goes away, that also kind of adds to that upward trajectory. So in my five-year forecast, we get, you know, kind of in that mid-16 towards 17 range. But again, every year in the five years is an improving story, and still hundreds, hundreds of basis points above our threshold. Great, thanks. And my other question just, The I mean, the Can you just talk about this growth, particularly, I guess, in Georgia, the 9% a year? growth, which is at least, It seems kind of unprecedented, at least in my lifetime, that... Steve, how are you? Bye. No, go ahead, go ahead.
And the debt goes away, that also kind of adds to that upward trajectory. So in my five-year forecast, we get, you know, kind of in that mid-16 towards 17 range. But again, every year in the five years is an improving story, and still hundreds, hundreds of basis points above our threshold.
Steve Fleishman: <unk> 17 range, but again every year in the five years is an improving story and still hundreds hundreds of basis points above our thresholds.
Speaker Change: Great. Thanks, and my other question just.
Steve Fleishman: Great. Thanks. And my other question, just the — I mean the — can you just talk to this growth, particularly, I guess, in Georgia, the 9% a year sales growth, which is at least seems unprecedented, at least for my — [inaudible] — go ahead, Chris.
The.
Speaker Change: I mean can.
Speaker Change: Can you just talk to just growth, particularly in Augusta, Georgia opened 9% a year.
Speaker Change: Sales growth, which is at least.
Speaker Change: Seems kind of unprecedented at least for my lifetime with us.
Okay.
Speaker Change: How are you yeah.
Speaker Change: Go ahead, Chris.
No go ahead go ahead Phil.
Chris Womack: Finish your question. Well, I just, I guess... How are you differentiating? uh, kind of proposed growth projects between ones that are in your plan or ones that you're kind of holding back from because you're not sure they're going to happen and just, You know, is this a conservative risk-adjusted number? Or how should I think about that? How are you?
Chris Womack: No, go ahead, go ahead. Finish your question.
Finish your question why I, just I guess just.
Steve Fleishman: I guess, just how are you differentiating proposed growth projects between ones that are in your plan or ones that you’re holding back from because you’re not sure they’re going to happen? And just — is this a conservative risk-adjusted number, or how should I think about that? How are you doing it against your peers because it’s so huge?
Speaker Change: How.
Speaker Change: How are you differentiating.
Phil: Kind of proposed growth projects between.
Phil: One is that our.
Phil: In your plan or ones that you're kind of holding back from because youre not sure theyre going to happen and then just.
Phil: Is this a conservative risk adjusted number.
Phil: How should I think about that how are you doing it yes device peers, because yes, Idaho huge.
Dan Tucker: How are you doing it? Yes, they're my peers. Yeah, so huge.
Chris Womack: Yes, it is an unprecedented growth that we continue to witness from economic development activities. And so yeah, this is a very conservative look. I mean, we look for — we factor in build permits, building permits in terms of actual announcements of ground has been broken. I mean, so we look at not just companies that are forward looking and making site visits, but there’s been some demonstrated commitment that they will, in fact, be building a project in the state. So, we go through those thresholds before, we make those filings in terms of being — having some certainty that these projects are, in fact, real. We’ve just seen unprecedented economic development activity, say, for the past three years. And we continue to have an aggressive pipeline. But as we go to the commission for this updated IRP, we just factored in those companies, those businesses that has clearly demonstrated and taken actions that we think of – that shows some firmness in their participation, in their operating businesses in the state.
Phil: Yes. It is an unprecedented growth that we continue to witness from economic development activities.
Phil: So yes. This is a very conservative look I mean, we look for.
Phil: We factor in Bill permits building permits in terms of actual announcements ground has been broken. So we look at not just companies that are looking at and making site visits.
Phil: Theres been some demonstrated commitment that they will in fact be building a project in the state.
Phil: We go through those thresholds before we make those filings in terms of having some certainty that these projects are in fact real we've just seen.
Dan Tucker: We've just seen unprecedented economic development activity, say, for the past three years, and we continue to have an aggressive pipeline. But as we go to the commission for this updated IRP, we have factored in those companies, those businesses that have clearly demonstrated and taken actions that we think of that show some firmness in their participation in their operating businesses in the state. Yeah, and I'll just add to that the momentum in that economic development activity has continued even since filing that 2023 IRP update. And so, you know, thank goodness we've got a filing in 2025, and we do this periodically. It's going to continue to evolve. There's a lot still lingering out there that, in our conservative nature, we're not counting on yet, but it's not unlikely.
We've just seen unprecedented economic development activity, say, for the past three years, and we continue to have an aggressive pipeline. But as we go to the commission for this updated IRP, we have factored in those companies, those businesses that have clearly demonstrated and taken actions that we think of that show some firmness in their participation in their operating businesses in the state.
Phil: Unprecedented economic development activity say for the past three years and we continue to have an aggressive pipeline, but as we go to the commission for this updated RFP, we just factored in those companies those businesses that has clearly demonstrated and taken actions.
Phil: That we think.
Phil: Yeah.
Phil: That show some firmness in there in their participation and their operating businesses in this state.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yeah. And I’ll just add to that, that the momentum in the economic development activity has continued even since filing that 2023 IRP update. And so thank goodness, we’ve got a filing in 2025, and we do this periodically. It’s going to continue to evolve. There’s a lot still lingering out there that, in our conservative nature, we’re not counting on yet, but it’s not unlikely.
Speaker Change: I'll just add to that that the momentum and that you cannot development activity has continued even since filing that 2023, RP update and so you know.
Speaker Change: Thank goodness, we've got a filing in 2025 and we do this periodically.
Speaker Change: It's going to continue to evolve there is a lot still lingering out there that and our conservative nature, we're not counting on yet, but it's not unlikely yes. Steve. This is a very conservative look as we make these decisions.
Steve Fleishman: Yeah, but Steve, this is a very conservative look as we make these decisions. And just one last thing on this, the 9%. Since everybody's very focused on data center growth, like how much of it is data centers relative to manufacturing or other growth, datacenters represent, right now, we think somewhere around 80% of that emerging load. Okay, thank you. Thanks, Steve. Have a good day.
Chris Womack: Yeah. But Steve, this is a very conservative look as we make these decisions.
And then just one last thing on this the 9%.
And just one last thing on this, the 9%. Since everybody's very focused on data center growth, like how much of it is data centers relative to manufacturing or other growth, datacenters represent, right now, we think somewhere around 80% of that emerging load. Okay, thank you. Thanks, Steve. Have a good day.
Steve Fleishman: And then just one last thing on this. The 9% since everybody is very focused on data center growth, how much of it is data centers relative to manufacturing or other growth?
Speaker Change: Since everybody is very focused on data center growth like how much of it is data centers relative to.
Speaker Change: Manufacturing or other gross yes.
Speaker Change: Data center represent right now, we think somewhere around 80% of that emerging load.
datacenters represent, right now, we think somewhere around 80% of that emerging load. Okay, thank you. Thanks, Steve. Have a good day.
Chris Womack: Data centers represent right now, we think somewhere around 80% of that emerging load.
Speaker Change: Yeah.
Speaker Change: Okay. Thank you.
Steve Fleishman: Okay, thank you. Thanks, Steve. Have a good day.
Steve Fleishman: Okay, thank you.
Thanks, Steve have a good day.
Chris Womack: Thanks, Steve. Have a good day.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: Our next question is from the line of currently Devon Park with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
Carly Davenport: Hey good afternoon and thanks for taking the questions. Hey how are you? Thank you. Maybe just to start on the new five-year plan. Could you just talk a little bit about what drove the assumptions you made around including some of that spend on the incremental resource needs in the Georgia IRP? And then, with the commission order sort of expected there in April, how would you think about updating the capital plan if it’s necessary after that decision?
Devon Park: Hey, good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking the questions Hey, how are you. Thank you.
Dan Tucker: Thank you. Maybe just to start on the new five-year plan. Could you just talk a little bit about what drove the assumptions you made around including some of that spend on the incremental resource needs in the Georgia IRP? And then with the commission order sort of expected there in April, how would you think about updating the capital plan if it's necessary after that decision? Yeah, Carly, that's a great question.
Thank you. Maybe just to start on the new five-year plan. Could you just talk a little bit about what drove the assumptions you made around including some of that spend on the incremental resource needs in the Georgia IRP? And then with the commission order sort of expected there in April, how would you think about updating the capital plan if it's necessary after that decision?
Devon Park: Just to start on on the new five year plan could you just talk a little bit about what drove the assumptions you made around including some of that spend on the incremental resource needs in the Georgia ERP and then what the commission order sort of expected there in April how would you think about updating the capital plan, if that's necessary after that decision.
Devon Park: Yes, Carla it's a great question so.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yes, Carly, it’s a great question. And I think I alluded to this a few minutes ago, it really is about the velocity and magnitude of this growth that we just kind of characterized for Steve. It’s right in front of us. These resources are needed sooner than later. And so we think there’s — it was reasonable to kind of break trend for us a little bit and get slightly ahead of regulatory outcome to reflect directionally what’s happening. And so just to kind of peel the curtain back a little bit, we were very specific in what we included. If you go back and look at the proposal that Georgia Power put in front of the commission back in the fall, it included a lot of various owned resources. And what we’ve included in the capital plan is essentially the new combustion turbines, there’s three of those, and then two specific storage projects that are kind of located near military bases in [inaudible] Air Force base. That leaves hundreds, I think, over 800 megawatts of storage projects and a small storage or solar kind of not included in there. We will get a decision in April, but again, as a reminder, there’s a whole another process coming in 2025. So, there may be a degree of clarity in April. There may be further clarity coming out the 2025 process. And as those play out, we’ll continue to obviously keep the investment community apprised and update our projections accordingly.
Dan Tucker: So I think I alluded to this a few minutes ago, it really is about the velocity and magnitude of this growth that we just kind of characterize for Steve. It's, it's right in front of us; these resources are needed sooner than later. And so we think it was reasonable to, you know, kind of break trend for us a little bit and get slightly ahead of regulatory outcomes to reflect directionally what's happening. And so, to kind of peel the curtain back a little bit, we were very specific in what we included.
Carla: I think I alluded to this a few minutes ago. It really is about the velocity and magnitude of this growth that we just kind of characterize for Steve. It's it's right in front of US. These resources are needed sooner than later and so we think there's it was reasonable to us.
Kind of break trend for us a little bit and get slightly ahead of regulatory outcome to reflect directionally, what's happening and so if.
Carla: Just to kind of Peel the curtain back a little bit we were very specific in what we included a if you go back and look at the proposal that the Georgia power put in front of the commission back in the fall. It included a lot of various owned resources on what we've included in the capital plan is essentially the new combustion.
Dan Tucker: If you go back and look at the proposal that Georgia Power put in front of the commission back in the fall, it included a lot of various owned resources. And what we've included in the capital plan is essentially the new combustion turbines, there are three of those, and then two specific storage projects that are kind of located near military bases, Moody's and Robbins Air Force Base. That leaves hundreds, I think over 800 megawatts of storage projects, a small storage of solar energy kind of not included in there.
If you go back and look at the proposal that Georgia Power put in front of the commission back in the fall, it included a lot of various owned resources. And what we've included in the capital plan is essentially the new combustion turbines, there are three of those, and then two specific storage projects that are kind of located near military bases, Moody's and Robbins Air Force Base.
Carla: Turbines, there's three of those and then too specific.
Carla: Storage projects that are kind of located near military basis, Moody's Robins Air Force base that leaves hundreds I think over 800 megawatts of storage projects and a small storage with solar kind of not included in there we will get a decision in April but.
Daniel S. Tucker: That leaves hundreds, I think over 800 megawatts of storage projects, a small storage of solar energy kind of not included in there. We will get a decision in April. Again, as a reminder, there's a whole other process coming in 2025. So there may be a degree of clarity in April; there may be further clarity coming out of the 2025 process. And as those play out, we'll continue to obviously keep the investment community apprised and update our projections accordingly.
Dan Tucker: We will get a decision in April. Again, as a reminder, there's a whole other process coming in 2025. So there may be a degree of clarity in April; there may be further clarity coming out of the 2025 process. And as those play out, we'll continue to obviously keep the investment community apprised and update our projections accordingly. Great. Thank you for that. That's super helpful.
We will get a decision in April. Again, as a reminder, there's a whole other process coming in 2025. So there may be a degree of clarity in April; there may be further clarity coming out of the 2025 process. And as those play out, we'll continue to obviously keep the investment community apprised and update our projections accordingly.
Carla: Again as a reminder, there's a whole another process coming in 2025. So there may be a degree of clarity in April there may be further clarity coming out of the 25 process and as those play out we'll continue to obviously keep the investment community apprised and update our projections accordingly.
Carly Davenport: Great. Thank you for that. That’s super helpful. And then maybe just as we think about executing on Vogtle Unit 4. Just any insights on kind of the near-term milestones that we might get updates on that we can gauge project progress there? And then, to the extent that timeline does slip beyond kind of the April that’s embedded into current guidance, can you talk a little bit about some of the levers that you might have to pull there to sort of offset those impacts?
Speaker Change: Great. Thank you that's super helpful.
Carly Davenport: And then maybe just as we think about executing on Vogel Unit 4, just any insights on kind of the near-term milestones that we might get updates on so we can gauge project progress there. And then to the extent that the timeline does slip beyond kind of April that's embedded into current guidance. Can you talk a little bit about some of the levers that you might have to pull there to sort of offset those impacts?
Speaker Change: And then maybe just as we think about executing on on Vogtle unit four.
Just any insights on kind of the near term milestones that we might get updates on that we can gauge project progress there.
Speaker Change: Then to the extent that the timeline does slip beyond kind of the April that's embedded into the current guidance can you talk a little bit about some of the levers that you might have to pull there to sort of offset those impacts.
Chris Womack: Yes. Carly, let me start by saying with initial criticality achieved yesterday, we continue to progress through testing and start-up. The next major milestone is thinking to the grid, and that could occur later this month. We expect Unit 4 completion during the second quarter. And as we take in account the experiences we got from last year with our Unit 3, as we look at moving through Unit 4, and we could have worked through these units — how we work through these issues that could arise. But we view this as a long-term investment and we’ll make sure we’re taking time to get it right. But right now, as we look at where we are, we are planning on the Unit being online in April, and we think we have a number of weeks of margin to accomplish that objective.
Speaker Change: Yes, Karl let me start by saying with initial Creel Academy achieved yesterday we.
We're continuing to progress through testing and startup the next major milestone.
Speaker Change: To the grid and that could occur later this month.
Speaker Change: We expect unit for completion during the second quarter.
Chris Womack: And as we take into account the experiences we got from last year with our unit three, as we look at moving through unit four, and we, you know, We could have worked through these issues that could arise, but we view this as a long-term investment, and we'll make sure we take the time to get it right. But right now, as we look at where we are, we are planning on the unit being online in April, and we think we have a number of weeks of margin to accomplish that objective. That's partially why we have a range, right? I mean, it's a 10 cent range out there.
And as we take into account the experiences we got from last year with our unit three, as we look at moving through unit four, and we, you know, We could have worked through these issues that could arise, but we view this as a long-term investment, and we'll make sure we take the time to get it right. But right now, as we look at where we are, we are planning on the unit being online in April, and we think we have a number of weeks of margin to accomplish that objective.
Speaker Change: And as we take into account the experiences we got from last year with our unit three as we look at moving through units.
Speaker Change: And we could have worked through these units.
Speaker Change: Work through these issues that could arise but.
Speaker Change: But we view this as a long term investment and make sure we take the time to get it right, but right now as we.
Speaker Change: We look at where we are we are planning on unit being online in April and we think we have a number of weeks of margin to accomplish that objective.
Speaker Change: Carla I'll speak to the flexibility I mean, obviously I mentioned earlier, we were kind of already deploying some of that flexibility to address what we expect to be as I sit here today in April in service because beyond that we've laid out is roughly three cents for every month, but that's partially why we have a range right I mean, it's a 10 cent range.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yes. And Carly, I’ll speak to the flexibility. I mean, obviously, I mentioned earlier, we’re kind of already deploying some of that flexibility to address what we expect to be us here today in April in service because beyond that, we’ve laid out, it’s roughly $0.03 for every month, but that’s partially why we have a range, right? I mean it’s a $0.10 range out there. So, it could be a function of moving us within the range for the year or depending on the circumstances as the year plays out, whether it’s weather or something else, we might have some greater degree of flexibility. It’s just too early in the year to really be that detailed about exactly how that might play out.
Dan Tucker: So it could be a function of moving us within the range for the year, or depending on the circumstances as the year plays out, whether it's weather or something else, we might have some greater degree of flexibility. It's just too early in the year to really be that detailed about exactly how that might play out. But I appreciate all that color.
So it could be a function of moving us within the range for the year, or depending on the circumstances as the year plays out, whether it's weather or something else, we might have some greater degree of flexibility. It's just too early in the year to really be that detailed about exactly how that might play out.
Speaker Change: Out there so it could be a function of moving us within the range for the year or depending on the circumstances as the year plays out whether it's weather or something else. We might have some greater degree of flexibility. It's just too early in the year to really be that detailed about exactly how that might play out.
Carly Davenport: All right. Appreciate all that color. Thank you, both.
Speaker Change: Got it I appreciate all that color. Thank you both.
Carly Davenport: Thank you both. You bet, Carl. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Julian Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
Thank you both.
You bet, Carl. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Julian Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
Daniel S. Tucker: You bet, Carly.
Speaker Change: You bet. Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Julian Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
Chris Womack: Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Julien Dumoulin Smith with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith: [inaudible]. Hey, pleasure, guys. Thanks so much for the time. Appreciate it. A couple of quick questions, following up on what you guys have said of late. Just on this big number on sales growth. Just to clarify, I mean, in your forecast, I know you’ve got this pending IRP that technically lines up against that sales. Are you seeing an improving ROE in the outlook? Or is this really underpinned at this point by just the IRP and the extent to which the IRP doesn’t fully reflect that sales outlook? Is there something more to go as you work through the process? Question one, if you will.
Speaker Change: Hey, Jay good afternoon.
Speaker Change: Hey, pleasure guys. Thanks, so much for the time appreciate it Hey couple of quick questions. Following up on what you guys have set of late I'm just on this big number on sales growth just to clarify.
Dan Tucker: Appreciate it. Hey, a couple quick questions following up on what you guys have said of late. Just on this big number on sales growth, just to clarify, I mean, in your forecast, I know you've got this pending IRP that technically lines up against that sales. Are you seeing an improving ROE in the outlook? Or is this really underpinned at this point by just the IRP and the extent to which the IRP doesn't fully reflect that sales outlook? Is there something else to go as you work through the process?
Speaker Change: In your forecast I know you've got this pending RFP that that technically lines up against that sales are you seeing an improving ROE and the outlook or is this really underpinned at this point by just the RFP into the extent to which the RFP doesn't fully reflect that sales outlook is there something more to go as you work through the process question I Wonder if you want.
Dan Tucker: Question one. So I'm not sure where you're headed with improved ROE, so maybe you can clarify that. Thank you all, certainly not improving returns from an overall, you know, say, regulated utility perspective is from a, we really view that as the opportunity to, Kind of, put downward pressure on existing customers' rates. I mean, our objective from an ROE perspective is regular, predictable, sustainable. I think you'll continue to see it play out that way.
Question one.
So I'm not sure where you're headed with improved ROE, so maybe you can clarify that. Thank you all, certainly not improving returns from an overall, you know, say, regulated utility perspective is from a, we really view that as the opportunity to, Kind of, put downward pressure on existing customers' rates. I mean, our objective from an ROE perspective is regular, predictable, sustainable. I think you'll continue to see it play out that way.
Daniel S. Tucker: So I’m not sure where you’re headed with improved ROE.
Speaker Change: So I'm not sure where youre headed with improved ROE E. Just maybe clarify that from the additional sales.
so maybe you can clarify that. Thank you all, certainly not improving returns from an overall, you know, say, regulated utility perspective is from a, we really view that as the opportunity to, Kind of, put downward pressure on existing customers' rates. I mean, our objective from an ROE perspective is regular, predictable, sustainable. I think you'll continue to see it play out that way.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Just from improving returns from the additional sales, if you will.
Speaker Change: If you will.
Daniel S. Tucker: Certainly, not improving returns from an overall, say, regulated utility perspective. We really view that as the opportunity to kind of put downward pressure on existing customers’ rates. I mean, our objective from an ROE perspective is regular, predictable, sustainable, I think you’ll continue to see it play out that way. Just to be clear, Julien, on the sales growth that we’ve laid out here, so this is roughly 6% in the long term for Southern that 9% number for Georgia Power, this is actually based on a more conservative view than what’s in the IRP update because the IRP update had to put some degree of expectation for additional success from an economic development perspective so that we do stay ahead of this from a resource perspective. It’s not a huge differential, but what it also kind of reinforces is as this continues to play out, those numbers have the potential to continue to go up.
Speaker Change: Certainly not improving returns from our overall.
Speaker Change: Regulated utility perspective from a we really view that as the opportunity to.
Speaker Change: Put downward pressure on existing customers rates I mean, our objective from an ROE perspective is regular predictable sustainable I think youll continue to see it play out that way.
Dan Tucker: Just to be clear, Julian, on the sales growth that we've laid out here, so this is, you know, roughly 6% in the long term for Southern, and that 9% number for Georgia Power. This is actually based on a more conservative view than what's in the IRP update, because the IRP update had to put some degree of expectation for additional... Success from an economic development perspective so that we do stay ahead of this from a resource perspective.
Speaker Change: Just to be clear Julien on the sales growth that we've laid out here. So this is roughly 6% in the long term for southern that 9% number for Georgia power. This is actually based on a more conservative view than what's in the ERP update because the RP update had to put some degree.
Speaker Change: Of expectation for additional success from an economic development perspective, so that we do stay ahead of this from a resource perspective, it's not a huge differential but what it also kind of reinforces is as this continues to play out those numbers have the potential to continue to go up.
Dan Tucker: It's not a huge differential, but what it also kind of reinforces is as this continues to play out, those numbers have the potential to continue to go up. Excellent. And then just pivoting back to the FFO to debt quickly.
It's not a huge differential, but what it also kind of reinforces is as this continues to play out, those numbers have the potential to continue to go up.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Yeah. Excellent. And then just pivoting back to the FFO to debt quickly, I mean, the 17% that you guys were talking about once, I mean, has that changed at all? Just in terms of how you’re thinking about pro forma Vogtle 4 coming on?
Speaker Change: Excellent and then just pivoting back to the F. A photo that quickly I mean, this 17% that you guys were talking about once I mean, what is.
Dan Tucker: I mean, this 17% that you guys were talking about once, I mean, what is it, does that change at all, just in terms of how you're thinking about, you know, pro forma for V4, Vogel 4, coming up? No, nothing's changed in terms of what I believe the financial profile supports, which again, my objective, as I've stated this before, I think that our parent company being at triple B plus, kind of the A category for all the utilities, I think the profile we see ahead of us fully supports that. The only thing that's changed is a slightly slower ramp-up in those metrics because of the incremental capital that we're deploying. But in terms of where we stand relative to any of our thresholds, it's several hundred basis points above any of those, and every year, every year improves.
I mean, this 17% that you guys were talking about once, I mean, what is it, does that change at all, just in terms of how you're thinking about, you know, pro forma for V4, Vogel 4, coming up?
Speaker Change: Is that changed at all just in terms of how youre thinking about pro forma for V Vogel for coming up.
Speaker Change: No no nothing has changed in terms of.
Daniel S. Tucker: No, nothing’s changed in terms of what I believe the financial profile supports which, again, my objectives, I’ve said this before, I think our parent company being a BBB+, kind of the A category for all the utilities, I think the profile we see ahead of us fully supports that. The only thing that’s changed is a slightly slower ramp-up in those metrics because of the incremental capital that we’re deploying. But in terms of where we stand relative to any of our thresholds, it’s several hundred basis points above any of those in every year, and every year improves.
Speaker Change: I believe the financial profile supports which again my objectives I've stated this before I think the our parent company being at Triple B plus kind of the eight category for all of the utilities I think the profile. We see ahead of US fully supports that the only thing that's changed is a slightly slower ramp up in those metrics because of the increment.
Speaker Change: Capital that we're deploying.
Speaker Change: And in terms of where we stand relative to any of our thresholds. It's several hundred basis points above any of those in every year and every year improves.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Wonderful. And then just quickly on the reactor cooler pumps, I know there was a little bit of talk in the K here. What’s sort of the status on V4? And then just to the extent to which that there is some root cause impact on some of the other — there’s a need to evaluate the adjacent reactor cooler pumps, if you will. I know there’s some language in the K on this.
Wonderful and then just quickly on the reactor coolant pumps I know there was a little bit of talk in the K here, what's sort of the status on before it and then just to the extent to which that there is some root cause impact on some of the other.
There is a need to evaluate the adjacent reactor coolant pumps, if you will.
Speaker Change: I know there was some language in the cabinet.
Chris Womack: Yes. And so yes, we’ve done all the analysis, we sent the pump back to the manufacturer. And we think we identified the cause of the issue, but a root cause analysis has not been performed yet. But we have tested all the other pumps. And with the new pump, we made sure there were not any similar issues, but we think we’re in pretty good shape with the pumps as we go forward.
Speaker Change: Yes, and so yes, we've done all the analysis, we tend to come back to the manufacturer and we think we identified the cause of the issue, but a root cause analysis has not been has not been performed yet.
Chris Womack: But we have tested all the other pumps and, with a new pump, made sure there were not any very similar issues, but we think we're in pretty good shape with the pumps as we go forward. Got it. Okay. So stay tuned on that front. Thank you guys very much.
But we have tested all the other pumps and, with a new pump, made sure there were not any very similar issues, but we think we're in pretty good shape with the pumps as we go forward.
Speaker Change: But we have tested all the other pumps and.
Speaker Change: With the new made sure there were not any very any similar issues, but we think we're in pretty good shape.
Speaker Change: With the pumps as we go forward.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Got it. Okay. So stay tuned on that front. Thank you guys very much. I really appreciate it.
Speaker Change: Got it okay. So stay tuned on that front. Thank you guys very much I really appreciate it.
Julien Dumoulin: I really appreciate it. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Nick Campanella with Barclays.
I really appreciate it.
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Nick Campanella with Barclays.
Chris Womack: Thank you.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Nick Campanella with Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Speaker Change: Yeah.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Nick <unk>.
Nick: <unk> with Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
Nicholas Campanella: Please go ahead. Your line is open now. Hey, Nick.
Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
Daniel S. Tucker: Hey, Nick.
Nicholas Campanella: Hey, good morning or good afternoon. I am sorry. I guess just to follow up on the question that Julian had on the root cause, I think you just mentioned the possibility of having to go look back at unit three pumps in the K. And just what's the actual risk, in your mind? And when is that no longer going to be an issue? I guess, man, as we have looked at the pump that we sent to the manufacturer, as we have identified what we think the issue was, we think it's not an issue with the other pumps.
Nicholas Campanella: Hey, good morning or good afternoon. I am sorry. I guess just a follow-up on the question that Julien had on the root cause. I think you just mentioned the possibility of having to go look back at Unit 3 pumps in the Vogtle. And just what’s the actual risk line? And when is that no longer going to be an issue?
Nick: Hey, thanks.
Nick: Hey, good morning, or good afternoon, rather alright.
I guess you could follow up on the.
Nick: On the question that Julien.
Speaker Change: Cause I think you just mentioned the possibility of having to go look back at unit three pumps in the K and just what's the actual risks in your mind.
Speaker Change: One is that no longer going to be an issue.
Chris Womack: I guess, as we have looked at the pump that we sent to the manufacturers, as we identified what we thought the issue was, we think it’s not an issue with the other pumps. I mean, we test the other pumps. We assess the pump, the new pump that we installed. And we think we just have a good handle. And on these pumps, I think you consider the run time. I think that provides good color to kind of, I guess, the confidence we have in the pump and what we’ve identified as the issues and things we have to do to make sure we don’t have similar issues as we go forward.
Speaker Change: I guess I mean, as we have looked at the pump that we sent to the manufacturer's we identified what we thought the issue was.
Speaker Change: We think is not an issue with the other pumps I mean, we test the other pumps.
Chris Womack: I mean, we've tested the other pumps, and analyzed the pump, the new pump that we installed. And we think we just have a good handle. And on these pumps, and I think you consider the runtime, I think that provides good color to kind of, I guess, the confidence we have in the pump and what we've identified as the issues and things we have to do to make sure we don't have similar issues as we go forward. Yeah, I think globally, there are 24 of these things running like a champ right now.
I mean, we've tested the other pumps, and analyzed the pump, the new pump that we installed. And we think we just have a good handle. And on these pumps, and I think you consider the runtime, I think that provides good color to kind of, I guess, the confidence we have in the pump and what we've identified as the issues and things we have to do to make sure we don't have similar issues as we go forward.
Speaker Change: The pump the new pump that we installed and we think we just have a have a good handle.
Speaker Change: And on these pumps I think you've considered the run time I think that provides good color to kind of I guess the confidence we have in the pop and what we've identified the issues and things we have to do to make sure. We don't have similar issues. As we go forward I think globally. There's 24 these things running like a Champ right now.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yes. I think globally, there’s 24 of these things running like a champ right now.
Nicholas Campanella: Absolutely. Yes, that’s helpful. And then just on the capital plan, and reflecting roughly 60% of the IRP, I know that you kind of get a decision in the first half of this year. So, just how do we kind of think about tweaks to the financing plan? Is it just going to be another fourth quarter update this time next year? Or is there a mid-period opportunity in the cards?
Speaker Change: Absolutely Yeah. That's helpful and then just.
On the capital plan, and reflecting a roughly 60% of the ERP.
Speaker Change: Now that you kind of get a decision in the first half of this year. So just.
How do we kind of think about tweaks to the financing plan is it just going to be another fourth quarter update on next year or is there a mid period opportunity in the cards.
Daniel S. Tucker: Look, none of these regulatory outcomes will be — they’ll all be in the light of day. I think it will be clear what’s approved and what’s yet to be approved. I kind of laid out what we’ve included already, which is those combustion turbines and two very specific storage projects. And so, I think we’ll be able to provide color along the way. We’ll certainly do more formal updates every year as we normally do, but I think there’ll be interim opportunities. And the other interim opportunity that will continue to exist is we’ve remained extremely conservative when it comes to owning in renewables in any of our electric service territories. We also are very optimistic that, that will happen. And as that gets clarity, we’ll make sure that, that’s known as well.
Speaker Change: Well look.
Speaker Change: None of these regulatory outcomes will be.
Speaker Change: So they'll all be in the light of day I think it will be clear.
Speaker Change: Clear, what's approved and what's yet to be approved kind of laid out what we've included already which is those combustion turbines in two very specific storage projects.
Speaker Change: So I think we'll be able to provide color along the way.
Speaker Change: We will certainly do more formal updates.
Speaker Change: Every year as we normally do but I think there'll be interim opportunities in the other interim opportunity that will continue to exist as we remained extremely conservative when it comes to owning in renewables in any of our electric service territories, where we also are very optimistic that that will happen and as that.
Dan Tucker: But we are also very optimistic that that will happen. And as that happens, Gets clarity, we'll make sure that that's known as well. But you'll also see great transparency through this process, man. As the commission in Georgia works through the process, I mean, staff is filing testimony today. They may have a different perspective, but you'll see that process play out, and that will lead to a decision in April by the commission. But You've seen these RP processes before.
But we are also very optimistic that that will happen. And as that happens, Gets clarity, we'll make sure that that's known as well.
Speaker Change: It gets clarity, we'll we'll make sure that that's known as well.
Chris Womack: But you’ll also see great transparency through this process, man, as the commission and Georgia works through the process, many staff is filing testimony today, and they may have a different perspective. But you’ll see that process play out and that leads us to the decision in April by the commission. But you’ve seen these IRP processes before. So those processes will continue as we go forward, and you’ll see real time kind of how it unfolds.
Speaker Change: You will also see great transparency through this process manage the commission in Georgia works through the process staff is filing testimony today.
Speaker Change: They may have a different perspective, but you'll see that process play out.
Speaker Change: And that lead us to the decision in April by the commission, but you've seen these RFP processes before so those processes will continue as we go forward and you will see real time kind of how it unfolds.
Chris Womack: So those processes will continue as we go forward, and you'll see real-time kind of how it unfolds. All right, thanks so much. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open now. How are you?
So those processes will continue as we go forward, and you'll see real-time kind of how it unfolds.
All right, thanks so much. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open now. How are you?
Nicholas Campanella: All right. Thanks so much.
Speaker Change: Alright, thanks, so much.
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open now. How are you?
Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
Speaker Change: Yeah.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: Our next question is from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
David Arcaro: How are you? Thanks so much. Hey, thank you. Let's see, thinking about that load growth trajectory, 6% rate-based growth... Still the right kind of parameter to think about longer term, you know, 6% load growth, 6% rate-based growth, is that enough to kind of handle the system strain, the generation need, just strain on the T&D system over time, or is there potential upward growth rate pressure on that rate-based growth number as you get into, you know, later years of this? We've remained incredibly conservative and measured in how we forecasted, not trying to get too far ahead of any regulatory processes.
David Arcaro: Thanks so much. Hey, thank you. Let’s see. Thinking about that load growth trajectory, is 6% rate base growth still the right kind of parameter to think about longer term? 6% load growth, 6% rate base growth, is that enough to kind of handle the system strain, the generation need to strain on the T&D system over time? Or is there potential upward growth rate pressure on that rate base growth number as you get into later years of this decade?
And then David you. Thanks, so much.
David Arcaro: Thanks so much. Hey, thank you. Let's see, thinking about that load growth trajectory, 6% rate-based growth... Still the right kind of parameter to think about longer term, you know, 6% load growth, 6% rate-based growth, is that enough to kind of handle the system strain, the generation need, just strain on the T&D system over time, or is there potential upward growth rate pressure on that rate-based growth number as you get into, you know, later years of this? We've remained incredibly conservative and measured in how we forecasted, not trying to get too far ahead of any regulatory processes.
David Arcaro: Thank you.
David Arcaro: Let's see.
David Arcaro: Thinking about that load growth trajectory.
David Arcaro: 6% rate base growth.
David Arcaro: It's still the right kind of parameter to think about longer term, 6% load growth, 6% rate base growth is that enough to kind of handle the system.
David Arcaro: Strain the generation needs a strain on the T&D system over time or is there potential.
David Arcaro: Upward growth rate pressure on that rate base growth number as you get into the later years of this decade.
David Arcaro: Yes.
Speaker Change: Dave what we've tried to imply there certainly is upward potential here, we've remained incredibly conservative and measured in how we forecasted not trying to get too far ahead of any regulatory processes. We'll get these decisions in April will have a 2025 process. We believe there is more economic development activity that is likely.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yes. Look, I think, Dave, what we’ve tried to imply is there certainly is upward potential here. We’ve remained incredibly conservative and measured in how we forecasted. We’re not trying to get too far ahead of any regulatory processes. We’ll get these decisions in April. We’ll have a 2025 process. We believe there’s more economic development activity that is likely to come to fruition. And so given all of that, it is certainly not unreasonable that our capital budget will continue to rise to serve that incremental load. And so, there certainly could be upward using your words, pressure on that rate base.
Dan Tucker: We'll get these decisions in April, and we'll have a 2025 process. I believe there's more economic development activity that is likely to come to fruition. And so given all of that, it is certainly not unreasonable that our capital budget will continue to rise to serve that incremental load. And so there certainly could be upward, using your words, pressure on that rate base. Okay. That makes sense.
We'll get these decisions in April, and we'll have a 2025 process. I believe there's more economic development activity that is likely to come to fruition. And so given all of that, it is certainly not unreasonable that our capital budget will continue to rise to serve that incremental load. And so there certainly could be upward, using your words, pressure on that rate base.
Speaker Change: To come to fruition.
Speaker Change: And so given all of that it is certainly not unreasonable that our capital budget will continue to rise to serve that incremental load and so there certainly could be.
Speaker Change: Upward using your words pressure on that rate base.
Dave: Got it that makes sense.
David Arcaro: Got it. That makes sense. And I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on how you’re thinking about the rate impacts, coming from that load growth? Are these low-priced, new commercial customers when you’re thinking about data center and manufacturing customers, such that there is a lot of grid investment that has to be covered by others within the system or other opportunities here? It sounded like you kind of see the opposite where you’re bringing in a lot of revenue that ends up being downward pressure on the rest of the system. So, I’m wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on how you see rates progressing over time?
Chris Womack: And I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on how you're thinking about the rate impacts coming from that load growth, you know, these low-priced new commercial customers when you're thinking about data center and manufacturing customers, there's a lot of good investment that has to be covered by others within the system or other opportunities here. It sounded like you kind of see the opposite, where you're bringing in a lot of So, I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on how you see rates progressively coming in. Yeah, no.
And I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on how you're thinking about the rate impacts coming from that load growth, you know, these low-priced new commercial customers when you're thinking about data center and manufacturing customers, there's a lot of good investment that has to be covered by others within the system or other opportunities here. It sounded like you kind of see the opposite, where you're bringing in a lot of So, I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on how you see rates progressively
Dave: And I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on how you're thinking about the rate impact coming from that load growth are these.
Dave: Are these low low priced new commercial customers, when you're thinking about data center and manufacturing customers.
Dave: Such that there's a lot of great investment that has to be covered by others within the system or.
Dave: Or are there opportunities here at Sao.
Dave: Like you kind of see the opposite where you're bringing in a lot of revenue that ends up being a downward pressure on the rest of the system. So I'm wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on how you see rates progressing over time.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yes - no, go ahead, Chris.
David Arcaro: Yeah, go ahead, Chris. No, we do expect to see rate decreases for our customers with these additional sales and the customer growth that we'll experience. We think it should more than offset the cost of the resources needed to serve, and so affordability is something we pay a lot of attention to, and there are things we do internally. And we think that one of the benefits of this sales growth is having the opportunity to put downward pressure on rates for our customers across the board, and so that's kind of how we see it and how we evaluate each project to make sure that it's in fact putting downward pressure on rates. We see this as a tremendous opportunity to de-risk our outlook. Excellent, thanks for that. Really helpful. I appreciate it.
Yeah, go ahead, Chris.
Chris Womack: No, we do expect to see rate decreases for our customers with these additional sales and the customer growth that we'll experience. We think it should more than offset the cost of the resources needed to serve, and so affordability is something we pay a lot of attention to, and there are things we do internally. And we think that one of the benefits of this sales growth is having the opportunity to put downward pressure on rates for our customers across the board, and so that's kind of how we see it and how we evaluate each project to make sure that it's in fact putting downward pressure on rates. We see this as a tremendous opportunity to de-risk our outlook. Excellent, thanks for that. Really helpful. I appreciate it.
Chris Womack: No, we do expect to see rate decreases for our customers with these additional sales and the customer growth that we’ll experience. We think that should more than offset the cost of the resources needed to serve. And so we — affordability is something we pay a lot of attention to, and there are things we do internal. And we think that one of the benefits of this sales growth is having the opportunity to put downward pressure on rates for our customers across the board. And so that’s kind of how we see it and how we evaluate each project. I want to make sure that is, in fact, putting downward pressure on rates.
Speaker Change: Yes, no yes, no we do expect to see rate decreases for our customers with these additional sales and the customer growth that we will experience we think.
Speaker Change: More than offset the cost of the resources needed to serve and so we.
Speaker Change: Portability, something we pay a lot of attention to and there are things, we do internally and we think one of the benefits of this sales growth is having.
Speaker Change: Having the opportunity to put downward pressure on rates for our customers across.
Speaker Change: Across the board and so that's kind of how we see it in how we evaluate each project I want to make sure that that is in fact, putting downward pressure on rates. If you think about where probably every utility company. It was a year ago, one of the greatest risk facing all of US was affordability, we see this as a tremendous opportunity to derisk our hour.
Chris Womack: We see this as a tremendous opportunity to de-risk our outlook. Excellent, thanks for that. Really helpful. I appreciate it.
Daniel S. Tucker: If you think about where probably every utility company was a year ago, one of the greatest risks facing all of this was affordability. We see this as a tremendous opportunity to derisk our outlook.
Speaker Change: Look.
David Arcaro: Excellent. Thanks for that. Really helpful. Appreciate it.
Speaker Change: Excellent. Thanks for that really helpful. I appreciate it.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Jeremy Tonet with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hey, Jeremy.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: Our next question is from the line of Jeremy Tonet with J P. Morgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Chris Womack: Hey, Jeremy.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: Hi, good afternoon. Good afternoon. I just wanted to come in, I guess, on the debt funding side, if I could start, understand the Georgia-powered debt funding increase driven by the IRP there, but at HOLTCO, just wondering, what's the main contributor to the kind of big step-up there of expected debt issuance? It looks like, you know, several billion in the 2024 plan now, and I think it was much less than that before, so just kind of curious Yeah, so in terms of the change kind of plan versus plan, Jeremy, it's largely driven by the CapEx as well, right? I mean, ultimately, the parent company is funding Georgia Power's equity contribution.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: Hi, good afternoon.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: Hey, Jeremy Hi, good afternoon.
Good afternoon. I just wanted to come in, I guess, on the debt funding side, if I could start, understand the Georgia-powered debt funding increase driven by the IRP there, but at HOLTCO, just wondering, what's the main contributor to the kind of big step-up there of expected debt issuance? It looks like, you know, several billion in the 2024 plan now, and I think it was much less than that before, so just kind of curious Yeah, so in terms of the change kind of plan versus plan, Jeremy, it's largely driven by the CapEx as well, right? I mean, ultimately, the parent company is funding Georgia Power's equity contribution.
Chris Womac: Good afternoon.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: I just wanted to come in, I guess, on the debt funding side, if I could start, understand the Georgia-powered debt funding increase driven by the IRP there, but at HOLTCO, just wondering, what's the main contributor to the kind of big step-up there of expected debt issuance? It looks like, you know, several billion in the 2024 plan now, and I think it was much less than that before, so just kind of curious Yeah, so in terms of the change kind of plan versus plan, Jeremy, it's largely driven by the CapEx as well, right? I mean, ultimately, the parent company is funding Georgia Power's equity contribution.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: Just wanted to come in, I guess, on the debt funding side, if I could start. I understand the Georgia Power debt funding increase driven by the IRP there. But at the holdco, just wondering what’s the main contributor to the kind of big step up there of expected debt issuance? It looks like several billion in the 2024 plan now, and I think it was much less than that before. So, just kind of curious, I guess, on the holdco debt issuance step-up expectations.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: Good afternoon.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: I just wanted to come in I guess on the.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: That funding side, if I could start.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: Stand the Georgia power debt funding increase driven by the IOP there, but at the Holdco. Just wondering what is the main contributor to the kind of big step up there of expected debt issuance it looks like.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: Several billion dollars in the 2024 plan now and I think it was that much less than that before so just kind of curious I guess on the holdco.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: Debt issuance step up expectations.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yes. So, in terms of the change kind of planned versus plan, Jeremy, it’s largely driven by the CapEx as well, right? I mean, ultimately, the parent company is funding Georgia Power’s equity contribution. And while we’re financing that partially with new equity through our plans, it’s certainly not all being funded directly with new shares. So, there’s incremental debt there. And then just the overall magnitude of the parent company issuances is largely driven by maturities. If you look a couple of pages beyond, there’s, I think, over $5 billion worth of maturities in the same time period. So, the amount that’s kind of new money is much smaller.
Speaker Change: Yes, so in terms of the change kind of planned versus planned Jeremy it's largely driven by the capex as well right I mean ultimately the parent company is funding, Georgia Power's equity contribution and while we're financing that partially with new equity through our plan certainly it's certainly not all.
Dan Tucker: And while we're financing that partially with new equity through our plans, it's certainly not all being funded directly with new shares. So there's incremental debt there. And then just the overall magnitude of the parent company issuance. This is largely driven by maturities.
Speaker Change: Being funded directly with new share so there's incremental debt there and then the just the overall magnitude of the parent company issuances is largely driven by maturities. If you know if you look a couple of pages beyond there's I think over $5 billion worth of maturities at the same time period. So the the amount that's kind of new money is much smaller.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: If you look a couple pages further down, there's, I think, over $5 billion worth of maturities in the same time period. So the amount that's kind of new money is much smaller. Got it, thanks for that. And I'm just curious if you're able to share any thoughts on the Georgian PSC elections here. Just as far as from what you guys see inside the state for those pending elections, do you expect the ballot and the elections to happen before the November general election? Or do you think it all kind of comes together in November?
If you look a couple pages further down, there's, I think, over $5 billion worth of maturities in the same time period. So the amount that's kind of new money is much smaller.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: Got it. Thanks for that. And just curious if you’re able to share any thoughts on the Georgia PSC elections here. Just as far as from what you guys see inside the state for those pending elections. Do you expect the ballot in the elections to happen before the November general election? Or do you think it all kind of comes in November? Just kind of curious, I guess, how you think timing could shape up there?
Speaker Change: Got it thanks for that and just curious if you're able to share any thoughts on the Georgia PSC elections here just as far as from what you guys see inside the state for those pending elections do you expect the ballot.
Speaker Change: The election has to happen before the November general election, or do you think it all kind of comes in November just kind of curious I guess, how do you think timing could shape up there.
Chris Womack: Just kind of curious, I guess, how you think the timing could shape up there? I have no idea. I mean, that matters are still in the court system.
Just kind of curious, I guess, how you think the timing could shape up there?
Chris Womack: I have no idea. I mean that matter is still in the court system. And so we’ll observe it, just like you are. But I have no insight into how that’s going to play out at this time.
Speaker Change: I have no idea I mean that matter is still in the court system and so we'll.
Chris Womack: And so we'll observe it just like you are, but I have no insight into how that's going to play out at this time. Got it. Just a quick last one, if I could. If you guys are running an RFP process in the Georgia IRP, and how you think Southern Power, Georgia Power stacks up, I guess, in the RFP process? Look, I just.
And so we'll observe it just like you are, but I have no insight into how that's going to play out at this time.
Speaker Change: Servers, just like you are but I have I have no insight into how that is going to play out at this time.
Speaker Change: Got it just a quick last one if I could.
Got it. Just a quick last one, if I could. If you guys are running an RFP process in the Georgia IRP, and how you think Southern Power, Georgia Power stacks up, I guess, in the RFP process? Look, I just.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: Got it. And just a quick last one, if I could. If you guys are running an RFP process in the Georgia IRP, and how you think Southern Power — Georgia Power stacks up, I guess, in RFP process there?
Speaker Change: If.
Speaker Change: You guys are running an RFP process and the Georgia, IOP and how you think.
Speaker Change: Power.
Speaker Change: Georgia power stacks up I guess in RFP process there.
Daniel S. Tucker: Look, just in answering that, generally, Jeremy, I mean, and we’ve said this before, the IRA is going to position all of our electric utilities to be much more competitive in these self-build options when it comes to resources, whether or not it plays out in this particular RFP, or it’s a subsequent RFP, or it’s a customer-specific siding, those things will happen over time. But it’s also likely a function of something later in the plan. So not a '24, '25, maybe not even '26 kind of resource. We’re talking really towards the back end of the plan where that becomes a real opportunity.
Speaker Change: Look just in.
Dan Tucker: In answering that generally, Jeremy, I mean... And we've said this before, the IRA is going to position all of our electric utilities to be much more competitive in these kinds of self-build options when it comes to resources. Whether or not it plays out in this particular RFP, or it's a subsequent RFP, or it's a customer-specific siting, those things will happen over time. But it's also likely a function of something later in the plan. So not a 24, 25, maybe not even 26, kind of resource.
Speaker Change: In answering that generally Jeremy I mean.
Speaker Change: And we've said this before the IRA has kind of position all of our electric utilities to be much more competitive in these kind of self build.
Speaker Change: Options when it comes to resources, whether or not it plays out in this particular RFP or a subsequent RFP or it's a customer specific citing those things will happen over time, but it's also likely.
Speaker Change: Function of something later in the plan so not a 'twenty four 'twenty five maybe not even 26.
Dan Tucker: We're talking really towards the back end of the plan, where that becomes a real opportunity. Got it. That's helpful.
We're talking really towards the back end of the plan, where that becomes a real opportunity.
Speaker Change: Of resource, we're talking really towards the back end of the plan where that becomes a real opportunity.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: Got it. That’s helpful. I’ll leave it there. Thanks.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: I'll leave it there. Thanks. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Avocor. Please go ahead. Your line is open now. Hey, good afternoon, team. Hey, hey, good afternoon.
I'll leave it there. Thanks.
Got it that's helpful I'll leave it there thanks.
Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Avocor. Please go ahead. Your line is open now. Hey, good afternoon, team. Hey, hey, good afternoon.
Chris Womack: Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Avocor. Please go ahead. Your line is open now. Hey, good afternoon, team. Hey, hey, good afternoon.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore. Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of <unk> Chopra with Evercore. Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
Chopra: Hey, Jim Hey.
Daniel S. Tucker: Hey, Durgesh. Hey, good afternoon, team. Hey, hey, good afternoon.
Daniel S. Tucker: Hey, Durgesh.
Durgesh Chopra: Hey, good afternoon team. Just [inaudible] is there a way for us to give us a range? And I understand if you can’t. But just in terms of the current capital plan, was that the Georgia IRP? What I’m after is what looks like a successful outcome there as we await the April decision? Just trying to see what is baked into the plan and what to look for in that April decision?
Chopra: Good afternoon.
Durgesh Chopra: Just a good afternoon, Dan. Dan, is there a way for us to give you a range? And I understand if you can't, but just in terms of the current capital plan, what is the Georgia IRP? What I'm trying to, what I'm after is what looks like a successful outcome there as we await the April decision. Just trying to see what is baked into the plan and what to look for in that April Yeah, it's a fair question to our guests. But this is where I want to stop short of getting ahead of any regulatory processes here.
Just a good afternoon, Dan. Dan, is there a way for us to give you a range? And I understand if you can't, but just in terms of the current capital plan, what is the Georgia IRP? What I'm trying to, what I'm after is what looks like a successful outcome there as we await the April decision.
Chopra: <unk>.
Hey, good afternoon criminals.
Chopra: Is there a way for us to give us a range and I understand if you can but just in terms of the current capital plan was.
What I'm what I'm after is what looks like a successful outcome there.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yeah. It’s a fair question, Durgesh. But this is where I want to stop short of getting ahead of any regulatory processes here. We’ve, kind of, characterized in terms of the megawatts that we’ve included that it’s roughly 60% of the brick-and-mortar megawatts that were proposed. And so, the best way for me to characterize it without getting ahead of anything is just say that the incremental capital associated with what we didn’t include won’t be lost in the rounding. It’s a pretty meaningful number.
Chopra: We await the April decision just trying to see what is baked into the plan and what to look for in that April decision.
Speaker Change: Yes, it's a fair question to our guests, but this is where I want to stop short of getting ahead of any regulatory processes here.
Dan Tucker: You know, we've kind of characterized in terms of the megawatts that we've included, that it's roughly 60% of the kind of brick and mortar megawatts that were proposed. And so the best way for me to characterize it without getting ahead of anything is just to say that the incremental capital associated with what we didn't include won't be lost in the rounding. It's a pretty meaningful number. Okay. I appreciate that,
You know, we've kind of characterized in terms of the megawatts that we've included, that it's roughly 60% of the kind of brick and mortar megawatts that were proposed. And so the best way for me to characterize it without getting ahead of anything is just to say that the incremental capital associated with what we didn't include won't be lost in the rounding. It's a pretty meaningful number.
Speaker Change: We've kind of characterized in terms of the megawatts. So we've included that it's roughly 60% of the kind of brick and mortar megawatts that were proposed.
Speaker Change: And so the best way for me to characterize it without getting ahead of anything is just say that the incremental capital associated with what we didnt include won't be lost in the rounding it's a pretty meaningful number.
Speaker Change: Understood I appreciate that Dan and then.
Durgesh Chopra: Understood. I appreciate that, Dan. And then, as we think about just along those lines, incremental CapEx upside. Is there a rule of thumbs, again, just for our models, high level, how should we think about it getting financed? You’ve got some strong load growth. But when we’re thinking about higher CapEx, what percentage could be equity finance versus debt? Any guidance there?
Dan Tucker: And then as we think about just along those lines, incremental capex upsides, is there a rule of thumb, again, just for our models at a high level, how should we think about it getting financed? You've got some strong low growth. But when we're thinking about higher capex, what percentage could be equity finance versus debt? Any sort of guidance there?
When you think about just along those lines.
Speaker Change: Rental capex upside is there a rule of thumb because again just for our models high level, how should we think about getting financed you've got some strong load growth but.
Speaker Change: When we're thinking about the higher capex, what percentage could be equity financed versus debt any sort of guidance there.
Dan Tucker: Yeah, I think what we did with this update is pretty representative of how we think about additional opportunities. So we added 5 billion dollars in capital. This plan was called out for a billion dollars a year on average, and we've added roughly $350 million of equity every year. So that 35 to 40% range is kind of representative of our consolidated equity ratio and represents pretty well what we think is necessary to maintain, if not marginally improved, but really just maintain the credit profile that's already in a really good place. Very clear. Thank you so much.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yeah. I think what we’ve done with this update is pretty representative of how we think about additional opportunities. So we added $5 billion of capital of this plan, let’s call that $1 billion a year on average. We’ve added roughly $350 million of equity every year. So that 35% to 40% range is representative of our consolidated equity ratio and represents pretty well what we think is necessary to maintain if not marginally improve, but really just maintain the credit profile that’s already in a really good place.
Speaker Change: Yeah, I think what we've done with this update is pretty representative of how we think about additional opportunities. So we added $5 billion of capital in this plan and let's call that $1 billion a year on average we've added roughly $350 million of equity every year, so that 35% to 40% range is.
Kind of representative of our consolidated equity ratio and represents pretty well, what we think is necessary to maintain if not marginally improve but really just maintain the credit profile that is already in a really good place.
Durgesh Chopra: Very clear. Thank you so much. Appreciate the time guys.
Speaker Change: Very clear. Thank you so much I appreciate the time guys.
Durgesh Chopra: Appreciate the time, guys. Thanks, Dargis. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Andrew Weisel with Scotiabank. Please go ahead. Your line is now open. Andrew, Hey, good afternoon.
Appreciate the time, guys.
Thanks, Dargis. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Andrew Weisel with Scotiabank. Please go ahead. Your line is now open. Andrew, Hey, good afternoon.
Chris Womack: Thanks, Durgesh.
Speaker Change: Thanks Douglas.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Andrew Weisel with Scotiabank. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Andrew Weisel with Scotiabank. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Speaker Change: Andrew.
Andrew Weisel: Hey, good afternoon.
Andrew Weisel: Couple of quick follow up questions really one just to clarify the equity of $3 50 per year. That's through 26 in the slides it kind of it sounds like Youre, saying Thats through 2008 should we think of that as just a run rate $3 50 per year going forward and potentially more if there's more capex.
Andrew Weisel: Hey, Andrew. A couple quick follow-up questions, really. One just to clarify the equity of 350 million per year that, Yeah, so what that 350 million represents is us turning on what we refer to as our internal plan. So it's issuing new shares through our drip, through our 401k. And, and that's about the run rate.
Daniel S. Tucker: Hey, Andrew.
Andrew Weisel: A couple quick follow-up questions, really. One just to clarify the equity of 350 million per year that, Yeah, so what that 350 million represents is us turning on what we refer to as our internal plan. So it's issuing new shares through our drip, through our 401k. And, and that's about the run rate.
Andrew Weisel: Hi. Good afternoon. A couple of quick follow-up questions, really. One, just to clarify, the equity of $350 million per year. That’s through '26 in the slides. It kind of sounds like you’re saying that’s through '28. Should we think of that as just a run rate of $350 million per year going forward and potentially more if there’s more CapEx?
Daniel S. Tucker: Yes. So, what that $350 million represents is us turning on what we refer to as our internal plan. So, it’s issuing new shares through our DRIP, through our 401K, and that’s about the run rate. And it just happens to match up pretty well with the needs associated with the $5 billion of incremental capital. We typically also maintain an at the market plan as flexibility. And so, to the extent there’s incremental CapEx that emerges, which again, is certainly reasonably possible, given everything we’ve described, the ATM’s the source that we’ll tap into to help finance that.
Andrew Weisel: Yeah, so what that $350 million represents as us turning on what we'd refer to as our internal plan. So it's issuing new shares through our drip through our 401K and.
Andrew Weisel: And thats about the run rate and it just happens to match up pretty well with the needs associated with the $5 billion of incremental capital.
Dan Tucker: And it just happens to match up pretty well with the needs associated with the $5 billion of incremental capital. We typically also maintain an at-the-market plan as a flexibility, and so to the extent there's incremental CapEx that emerges, which, again, is certainly reasonably possible given everything we've described, the ATM's the source that we'll tap into to help finance it.
Andrew Weisel: We typically also maintain an at the market plan.
Andrew Weisel: As flexibility and so to the extent theres incremental cap.
Andrew Weisel: Capex that emerges, which again is certainly reasonably possible given everything we've described.
Andrew Weisel: Atms to source that will tap into to help finance that.
Dan Tucker: Okay, very good. Next on the CapEx update, just to clarify, and sorry if I missed it, does that include anything for Alabama solar, or would that be incremental? The chat went back and forth.
Andrew Weisel: Okay. Very good. Next, on the CapEx update. Just to clarify, and sorry if I missed it. Does that include anything for Alabama Solar? Or would that be incremental?
Speaker Change: Okay very good.
Speaker Change: Next on the Capex update just to clarify Im sorry, if I missed it does that include anything for Alabama solar or would that be incremental.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yes. No, that would be incremental. There’s still no new rate-based solar included. So, we’ve remained conservative in terms of our projections there in the outlook. And hey, just going back, Andrew, real quickly to the equity question. Just to kind of point out since maybe it wasn’t clear because we only put a three-year financing plan out there, yes, leaving the plans on every year. And on average, kind of the average increase to shares every year is a fraction of a percent. So, that’s also kind of in the rounding.
Dan Tucker: Yeah, yeah, no, that would be incremental. There's still no new rate-based solar included. So we've remained conservative in terms of our projections there in the outlook and hey, just, Going back, Andrew, real quickly to the equity question, just to kind of point out, since maybe it wasn't clear because we only put a three-year financing plan out there. Yeah, leaving the plans on every year.
That would be yes, yes, no that would be incremental they are still there is still no new rate based solar included so we remain conservative in terms of our projections, there and the outlook and Hey, just going back Andrew real quickly to the equity question, just kind of point out.
Speaker Change: Since it.
Speaker Change: Maybe it wasn't clear because we only put a three year financing plan out there yeah, leaving the plans on every year and on average kind of the average increase the shares every year is a fraction of a percent. So that's also kind of in the rounding.
Dan Tucker: And on average, the average increase in shares every year is a fraction of a percent. So that's also kind of in the realm. Oh, sounds good. One last one.
And on average, the average increase in shares every year is a fraction of a percent. So that's also kind of in the realm.
Andrew Weisel: Sounds good. One last one, if I may. Dividend growth, you’ve been very consistent at $0.08 per share, about 3%. Given the CapEx outlook, is there any point in time at which you might reconsider the trajectory?
Speaker Change: Sounds good and one last one if I may dividend growth you've been very consistent at eight cents per share about 3% given the capex outlook is there any point in time at which you might reconsider the trajectory.
Dan Tucker: If I may, dividend growth, you've been very consistent at 8 cents per share, about 3%. Given the CapEx outlook, is there any point in time at which you might reconsider the trajectory? Another terrific question. So we had kind of alluded to the possibility of re-evaluating the rate of dividend growth once we got Vogel 4 into service and kind of had, you know, we're kind of in a steady state and into the, you know, kind of below 70% somewhere. Given our current circumstances where we are in a place of issuing equity, you know, that's one of the most efficient sources of equity to remain modest in the way we continue to increase dividends.
If I may, dividend growth, you've been very consistent at 8 cents per share, about 3%. Given the CapEx outlook, is there any point in time at which you might reconsider the trajectory?
Daniel S. Tucker: Another terrific question. So, we had kind of alluded to the possibility of reevaluating the rate of dividend growth once we got Vogtle 4 into service, and kind of had — we’re kind of in a steady state and into the kind of below 70% somewhere. Given our current circumstances where were we are, in a place of issuing equity, perhaps one of the most efficient sources of equity is to remain modest in the way we continue to increase the dividend. So, I think for the foreseeable future, the trajectory we’ve been on is a reasonable expectation for the trajectory we’ll remain on.
Speaker Change: Another terrific question. So we had kind of alluded to the possibility of reevaluating the rate of dividend growth. Once we got both before into service and kind of had.
Speaker Change: We're kind of in a steady state and into the.
Speaker Change: Kind of below 70% somewhere.
Speaker Change: Given our current circumstances, where we are in a place of issuing equity.
Speaker Change: Perhaps one of the most efficient sources of equity is to remain modest in the way we continue to increase the dividend. So I think for the foreseeable future that trajectory we've been on as a reasonable expectation for the trajectory will remain on.
Andrew Weisel: So I think for the foreseeable future, the trajectory we've been on is a reasonable expectation for the trajectory we'll remain on. Very clear. Thank you so much.
So I think for the foreseeable future, the trajectory we've been on is a reasonable expectation for the trajectory we'll remain on.
Andrew Weisel: Very clear. Thank you so much.
Speaker Change: Very clear thank you so much.
Dan Tucker: You bet. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Mizzou Home. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Daniel S. Tucker: You bet.
Speaker Change: You bet. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Mizzou Home. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Chris Wamock: Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Anthony <unk> with Mizuho. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Anthony: Hey, good morning, good morning, Dan.
Anthony: Just if I could just one quick one on the data centers and I guess to load growth.
Anthony Crowdell: If I could just hit you up on the data centers and, I guess, low growth. It seems that we're finally going to get some slow growth in this sector, and we're all looking at data centers as help. But it seems that maybe the rate design question we're all trying to figure out, typically a lower margin customer, a large investment requirement, and earlier you touched on maybe helping with some customer bills. My question is, if you go deeper into that, is it going to have bigger bill impact and bigger fights in rate design, or do you not think that's an issue? Man, there's always that; there will always be issues.
Anthony Crowdell: Hey good morning Chris, good morning Dan. If I could just pitch up one quick one on the data centers and I guess, the load growth. It seems like we finally are going to get some load growth in this sector, and we’re all looking at data centers has helped. But it seems that maybe the rate design question, we’re all trying to figure out typically a lower-margin customer, large investment requirement. And earlier, you touched on maybe helping with some customer bills. My question is, if you go deeper into that on — is it going to be bigger bill impact and bigger fights and rate design or you don’t think that’s an issue?
Anthony: It seems that we finally, you're going to get some loan growth in this sector and we're all looking at data centers has helped but it seems that maybe the rate design question. We're all trying to figure out typically a lower margin customer large investment requirement and early you touch on maybe helping with some customer bills I. Just my question is if you can.
Deeper into that.
Anthony: Is it going to be bigger bill impact and bigger fights and rate design, but you don't think that's an issue.
Chris Womack: I mean there’s always — there will always be issues. But I think as we look at increased sales, as we look at growth in customers, and then as we work with these new customers, we think this provides us the opportunity to have downward pressure on rates. And so we will work with these customers in terms of their pricing. But once again, I just go back to the fundamentals of increased sales opportunity and this customer growth, how that supports the opportunity for us to put downward pressure all across our customer base to see downward pressure on rates. I mean, we’ll evaluate each customer to ensure that, in fact, does happen, that they put downward pressure on overall rates across the company.
Anthony: And there is always that there will always be issues, but I think as we look at increased sales as we look at growth in customers and then as we work with these new customers. We think this provides us the opportunity to have downward pressure on rates and so we will work with many of these customers in terms of their pricing.
Chris Womack: But I think as we look at increased sales, as we look at growth in customers, and then as we work with these new customers, we think this provides us with the opportunity to have downward pressure on rates. And so we will work with many of these customers in terms of their pricing. But once again, I just go back to the fundamentals of increased sales opportunity and this customer growth, how that supports the opportunity for us to put downward pressure all across our customer base to see downward pressure on rates. I mean, we'll evaluate each customer to ensure that that, in fact, does happen, that they put downward pressure on overall rates across the company. And Anthony, what it appears a lot of these data centers are beginning to do is prioritize reliable, resilient service over many other things. That gives us the opportunity.
But I think as we look at increased sales, as we look at growth in customers, and then as we work with these new customers, we think this provides us with the opportunity to have downward pressure on rates. And so we will work with many of these customers in terms of their pricing. But once again, I just go back to the fundamentals of increased sales opportunity and this customer growth, how that supports the opportunity for us to put downward pressure all across our customer base to see downward pressure on rates. I mean, we'll evaluate each customer to ensure that that, in fact, does happen, that they put downward pressure on overall rates across the company.
Anthony: But once again just go back to the fundamentals of increased sales opportunity and this customer growth how that supports the opportunity for us to put downward pressure all across our customer base to see downward pressure on rates.
We'll evaluate each customer to ensure.
Anthony: That that in fact does happen that they put downward pressure on an overall rates across across the company and Anthony what it appears a lot of these data centers are beginning to do is prioritize.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yeah. And Anthony, what it appears a lot of these data centers are beginning to do is prioritize reliable, resilient service over many other things. That gives us the opportunity to price it appropriately for the benefit of everyone else.
Anthony: Liable resilient service over many other things that gives us the opportunity to price it appropriately for the benefit of everyone else and yes, we will look at the size the demand. The timing there are other factors that will go into making sure that we price service appropriately to those customers.
Dan Tucker: And we'll look at the size, the demand, the timing; there are other factors that will go into making sure that we price service appropriately to those customers. Great. Thanks for taking my question. You're welcome.
Chris Womack: And, yeah, we’ll look at the size, the demand, the timing, there are other factors that will go into making sure that we price service appropriately to those customers.
Great. Thanks for taking my question. You're welcome.
Anthony Crowdell: Great. Thanks for taking my question.
Speaker Change: Great. Thanks for taking my question.
Chris Womack: You're welcome. Thank you.
Anthony C. Crowdell: Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Angie Storozynski with Seaport. Please go ahead. Your line is open now. Artist of the Week: Okay, great.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Angie Storozynski with Seaport. Please go ahead. Your line is open now. Artist of the Week: Okay, great.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Angie Storozynski with Seaport. Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
Speaker Change: Youre welcome. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Angie <unk> with <unk>. Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
Angie Storozynski: Good morning. Great. I guess — I know that everybody is asking questions on data centers, but I’m just again, maybe just taking a step back. So when somebody wants to locate a data center in your service territory, do they just get connected to the grid? Or do they develop their own power sources? Do you actually see that they, for instance, have some preference for non-emitting resources. Do they use you more as a backup power source. Again, trying to understand the dynamics of those data centers being added to in Georgia.
Angie: And are you winning.
Angie Storozynski: I just, I know that everybody's asking questions about data centers, but I'm just, just, again, maybe just take a step back. So, when somebody wants to locate a data center in your service territory, do they just get connected to the grid, or do they develop their own power sources? Do you actually see that they, for instance, have some preference for non-emitting resources?
Angie: Okay great.
Angie: I know that everybody's asking questions on data centers, but I'm just just again, maybe just taking a step back so.
So when when somebody.
Angie: Once to locate a datacenter and in your service territory do they just get connected to the grid.
Angie: Develop their own.
Power sources do you actually see that they for instance have some preference for non emitting resources today.
Chris Womack: Do they use you more as a backup power source? Source, again, just. Just, again, trying to understand the dynamics of those data centers being added, for instance, in Georgia. Angie, there are a lot of considerations that go into that decision. And yeah, we want to connect them to our grid. And yeah, we'll have conversations with them about renewable resources and the mix. But those are conversations that we do have with them, recognizing what upgrades need to be made on the system, locations, where they are. So yeah, there are a lot of really detailed conversations, engineering conversations that go into making those final decisions, that also then ultimately impact the pricing for that service.
Do they use you more as a backup power source? Source, again, just. Just, again, trying to understand the dynamics of those data centers being added, for instance, in Georgia.
Angie: Is it more as a backup power source again just.
Angie: Just again trying to understand the dynamics of those data centers being added to for instance in Georgia.
Chris Womack: Angie, there are a lot of considerations that go into that decision. And yeah, we want to connect them to our grid. And yeah, we’ll have conversations with them about renewable resources and the mix. But those are conversations that we do have with them, recognizing what upgrade may be made on the system, locations, where they are. So there are a lot of kind of really detailed conversations, engineering conversations that go into making those final decisions that also then ultimately impact the pricing for that service.
Angie: And there are a lot of considerations that go into that decision and yes, we want to connect them to our grid.
Angie: We'll have a conversation with them about renewable resources and the mix, but those are conversations that we do have with them.
Recognizing what upgrades may be made on the system locations, where they are so yes. There are a lot of kind of really detailed conversations.
Angie: Doing conversation that go into making those final decisions that also then ultimately impacted pricing.
Chris Womack: But again, it's not self-supplying, right? So they use Georgia power, for example, as a source of power. Absolutely. Yes, that's correct. Okay, and then secondly, again, I know that this question has been asked over and over.
Angie Storozynski: But again, it’s not self-supply, right? So they use Georgia Power, for example, as a first source of power.
Angie: Oh for that service.
Angie: But again, it's not self supply right. So they use Georgia power for example, as the first semester.
Absolutely. Yes, that's correct. Okay, and then secondly, again, I know that this question has been asked over and over.
Chris Womack: Absolutely. Yes, that’s correct.
Angie Storozynski: Okay. And then secondly, again, I know this question has been asked over and over. Just hard to believe that the load growth is not having a bigger impact on your earnings growth? And again, I don’t even imagine this is like an emerging markets sort of pace of load growth, especially for Georgia and those outer years, and yet there’s no impact from our vantage point on your earnings growth. Is it just because the interest expense drag is so pronounced that it absorbs the help that you’re getting from higher load growth?
Angie: Sure.
Speaker Change: Absolutely, yes, that's correct.
Speaker Change: Okay, and then secondly, again I know this question's been asked over and over.
Angie Storozynski: It's just hard to believe that the load growth is not having a bigger impact on your earnings growth. And again, I don't even imagine this is like an emerging markets sort of case of load growth, especially for Georgia and those early years. And yet, there's no impact, you know, from our vantage point on your earnings growth. Is it just because the interest expense drag is so pronounced that it absorbs the help that you're getting from higher load growth?
Speaker Change: Just just hard to believe that the load growth is not having a bigger impact on your earnings growth.
Speaker Change: And again I don't you can imagine this is like that in emerging markets. So those cases.
Speaker Change: Especially for Georgia in the outer years of yet.
Speaker Change: There is no impact.
Speaker Change: From again from Mountain Vantage point on your earnings growth is it just because the.
Speaker Change: The interest.
Speaker Change: The drag is so pronounced that it absorb.
Speaker Change: <unk> that youre getting some higher nalco.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yes, Angie, it’s a few things. Certainly, relative to where we were a year ago, and I think we’ve said this before, in a higher for longer environment, certainly, interest is a bigger headwind going forward. But the bigger dynamic in your question is around what we’re actually investing in to serve this load or why we’re investing. So keep in mind, the 6% for Southern Company sales growth and 9% for Georgia Power, that’s kilowatt hour usage. That’s the growth in the total kilowatt hours used. What we invest to do is serve the peaks. And so, that looks a little different than the 24/7. We’ve got a lot of resources. We just may have to incrementally add resources to serve the peaks, and that’s what you’re seeing largely in the capital deployment. And net-net, we’re comfortably in that 5% to 7% growth range.
Speaker Change: Yes.
Speaker Change: It's a few things certainly.
Speaker Change: Relative to where we were a year ago and I think we've said this before.
Speaker Change: Higher for longer environment, certainly interest is a bigger headwind going for but the bigger dynamic and your question is around what we're actually investing in to serve this load or why we're investing so keep in mind, the 6% for southern company sales grow.
Speaker Change: The 9% for Georgia power, that's kilowatt hour usage, that's the growth in the total kilowatt hours used what we invest to do is serve the peaks.
Dan Tucker: What we invest in to do is serve the people. And so that looks a little different than the 24-7. We've got a lot of resources. We just may have to incrementally add resources to serve the peaks. And that's what you're seeing largely in the capital deployment. And net net, we're comfortably in that five to seven percent growth. Okay.
What we invest in to do is serve the people. And so that looks a little different than the 24-7. We've got a lot of resources. We just may have to incrementally add resources to serve the peaks. And that's what you're seeing largely in the capital deployment. And net net, we're comfortably in that five to seven percent growth.
Speaker Change: And so that looks a little different than the $24 seven we've got a lot of resources. We just may have to incrementally add resources to serve the peaks and Thats, what youre seeing largely in the capital deployment and net net we're comfortably in that 5% to 7% growth range.
Angie Storozynski: Okay, understood. Thank you.
Angie Storozynski: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Paul Fremont with Aladdinburg. Please go ahead. Your line is open. How are you doing, Paul?
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Okay understood. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Paul Fremont with Aladdinburg. Please go ahead. Your line is open. How are you doing, Paul?
Chris Womack: Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Paul Fremont with Aladdinburg. Please go ahead. Your line is open. How are you doing, Paul?
Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Paul Fremont with Ladenburg. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: Our next question is from the line of Paul Fremont with Ladenburg. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Chris Womack: How are you doing, Paul?
Paul Fremont: How are you doing Paul.
Paul Fremont: Great and congratulations on a good quarter. Thank you very much. Just to clarify, if you were not to get sort of the higher growth rate in sales after 2025, would that have an impact or change, potentially change your five to seven. No.
Paul Fremont: Great. Congratulations on the good quarter.
Paul Fremont: Great and congratulations on a good quarter.
Paul Fremont: Thank you very much Justin just to clarify if you were not to get sort of the higher growth rate in sales. After 2025 would that have an impact or change potentially change your 5% to 7%.
Thank you very much. Just to clarify, if you were not to get sort of the higher growth rate in sales after 2025, would that have an impact or change, potentially change your five to seven. No.
Chris Womack: Thank you very much.
Paul Fremont: Just to clarify, if you were not to get sort of the higher growth rate in sales after 2025, would that have an impact or change, potentially change your five to seven. No.
Paul Fremont: Just to clarify, if you were not to get sort of the higher growth rate in sales after 2025, would that have an impact or change — potentially change your 5% to 7% growth target?
Growth target.
Paul Fremont: No.
Speaker Change: Okay great.
Speaker Change: Uh huh.
Daniel S. Tucker: No.
Yeah.
Paul Fremont: And then I noticed that gas capital spending is roughly unchanged. Can you sort of share with us what you're anticipating is going to happen in Illinois and is there spending that's being shifted from NICOR to? And yeah, I think you got it just right. I mean, we see opportunities to have some increased capital spending in Atlanta and around the operations here in Georgia. So we think that that will allow gas investments to be stable going forward. So I think you've spoken to it just right. Yeah, and any changes in Illinois are modest, to be fair. I mean, and the outcome there for us.
Paul Fremont: Okay. Great. And then I noticed that the gas capital spending is roughly unchanged. Can you sort of share with us what you’re anticipating is going to happen in Illinois? And is there spending that’s being shifted from Nicor to any of the other gas subsidiary?
Speaker Change: And then.
Speaker Change: I noticed that the gas capital spending is roughly unchanged.
Speaker Change: Can you sort of share with us what youre anticipating is going to happen in Illinois.
Speaker Change: And is there is spending thats being shifted from <unk> to any of the other gases.
Chris Womack: And yeah, I think you got it just right. I mean, we see opportunities to have some increased capital spending in Atlanta and around the operations here in Georgia. So we think that that will allow gas investments to be stable going forward. So I think you've spoken to it just right. Yeah, and any changes in Illinois are modest, to be fair. I mean, and the outcome there for us.
Chris Womack: And yes, I think you got it just right. I mean, we see the opportunities to have some increased capital spending in Atlanta around the operations here in Georgia. So we think that allows that gas investments to be stable going forward. So I think you’ve spoken to it just right.
Speaker Change: And yes, I think you've got it just right I mean, we see the opportunities to have some increased capital spending.
Speaker Change: In Atlanta.
Speaker Change: Around the operations here in Georgia. So we think that that allows that gas investments to be stable going forward.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yes. And any changes in Illinois are modest, to be fair. And the outcome there for us, while disappointing, also provided a bit of a road map as to how to be successful going forward in navigating that jurisdiction in terms of just the things we’ve got to make sure we do as we deploy capital. And keep in mind, a huge, vast majority of the capital that’s deployed for Nicor Gas is compliance related. And so, there’s only so much to kind of not do in the first place.
Speaker Change: So I think you've I think you've spoken to it just right and any changes in Illinois are modest to be fair I mean.
Speaker Change: <unk>.
Speaker Change: The outcome there for us.
Dan Tucker: While disappointing, it also provided a bit of a roadmap as to how to be successful going forward in navigating that jurisdiction in terms of just the things we've got to make sure we do as we deploy capital. And keep in mind, a huge, vast majority of the capital that's deployed for NICOR gas is compliance related. And so there's only so much to kind of not do in the first place.
Speaker Change: While disappointing also provided a bit of a roadmap as to how to be successful going forward and navigating that jurisdiction in terms of just the things we've got to make sure. We do as we deploy capital and keep in mind here.
Speaker Change: Huge vast majority of the capital that's deployed.
Speaker Change: For Nicor gas is compliance related and so there's only so much the kind of not do in the first place.
Dan Tucker: And then my last question, I mean, generally speaking, when we think of EPS growth... With respect to rate-based growth, there tends to be... dilution to the rate-based level of right-base ground because a portion or the equity portion, funded either by parent debt or by Parent Equity. So. Can you help us sort of understand, at 6% rate-based growth, is it possible for you to achieve, or how would you achieve, sort of the high-end? Yeah, great question, Paul. So again, we were at 6% growth last year in rate base, and we've added $5 billion of incremental capital to that. It's, we characterize it as approximately 6. But also, the shares we're issuing, I think I mentioned this earlier, that equates to a fraction of a percentage. It's kind of just rounding.
Paul Fremont: Great. And then my last question. I mean, generally speaking, when we think of EPS growth, with respect to rate base growth, there tends to be dilution to the rate base to the level of rate base growth because a portion or the equity portion is funded either by parent debt or by parent equity. So can you help us sort of understand at 6% rate base growth, is it possible for you to achieve? Or how would you achieve sort of the high end of your growth target?
Speaker Change: Great and then my last question I mean, generally speaking when we think of EPS growth.
Speaker Change: With respect to rate base growth.
Speaker Change: There tends to be.
Dilution to the rate base.
Speaker Change: To the level of rate base growth, because a portion or the equity portion is funded either by parent debt or or buy parent equity.
Speaker Change: No.
Speaker Change: Can you help us sort of understand.
Speaker Change: At 6% rate base growth is it possible for you to achieve or how would you achieve sort of the high end of your target.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yes. Great question, Paul. So again, we were at 6% growth last year in rate base. We’ve added $5 billion of incremental capital to that. It’s — we kind of characterize it as approximately 6, but then also the shares we’re issuing, and I think I mentioned this earlier, was that equates to a fraction of a percentage and it’s kind of just in the rounding. We feel very comfortable that net-net, how all these things stack up is a conservative, achievable forecast.
Yeah, Great question, Paul So again, we were at 6% growth last year in rate base, we've added $5 billion of incremental capital to that.
Speaker Change: It's we've kind of characterize it is approximately six.
Speaker Change: But then also the shares or issuing a.
Speaker Change: I mentioned this earlier was that equates to a fraction of a percentage and it's kind of just in the rounding we feel very comfortable that net net how all these things stack up.
Dan Tucker: We feel very comfortable that, net net, how all these things stack up, is a conservative achievable forecast. Great. That's it for me.
We feel very comfortable that, net net, how all these things stack up, is a conservative achievable forecast.
Speaker Change: As a conservative achievable forecast.
Paul Fremont: Great. That's it for me. Thank you very much.
Speaker Change: Great. That's it for me thank you very much.
Travis Miller: Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. Please go ahead. The line is open.
Thank you very much.
Chris Womack: Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. Please go ahead. The line is open.
Chris Womack: Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: Our next question is from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Travis Miller: Hello, everyone, thank you. Thanks, Travis. You've answered almost all of my questions. I do want to follow up on that dividend. It was one of my questions.
Travis Miller: Hello, everyone, thank you.
Travis Miller: Hello, everyone and thank you.
Chris Womack: Thanks, Travis. You've answered almost all of my questions. I do want to follow up on that dividend. It was one of my questions.
Chris Womack: Thanks, Travis.
Travis Miller: You’ve answered almost all of my questions. I do want to follow-up on that dividend, it was one of my questions. Just to clarify what you said, you would expect the dividend growth to stay below earnings growth for at least a couple of more years. Did I hear that correctly?
Travis Miller: Thanks Travis.
Travis Miller: You've answered almost all my questions I do want to follow up on the dividend.
Dan Tucker: Just to clarify what you said, you would expect the dividend growth to stay below earnings growth for at least a couple of more years. Did I hear that correctly? Yeah, yeah, Travis, you did.
Just to clarify what you said, you would expect the dividend growth to stay below earnings growth for at least a couple of more years. Did I hear that correctly?
Speaker Change: My question's just.
Travis Miller: Just to clarify what you said you would expect the dividend growth to stay below earnings growth.
Travis Miller: For at least a couple of more years did I hear that correctly.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yes, Travis. You did. And so again, our cadence of growth has been $0.08 per year for several years. I think it’s reasonable to expect that to continue, of course, it’s all subject to the Board’s oversight and approval. But what that will do is take us during this high period of CapEx, which hopefully goes on for a very long period of time, brings us comfortably down into the 60s from a payout ratio perspective. And so, that’s a good place to be, and we’ll evaluate it every year with what the forecast looks like and what’s appropriate. Right now, I think the reasonable expectation is that continued modest growth, which is just below 3%.
Travis Miller: Yeah, Travis you did and so again, our cadence of growth has been eight cents per year for several years I think it is reasonable to expect that to continue of course, it's all subject.
Dan Tucker: And so again, our cadence of growth has been $0.08 per year for several years. I think it's reasonable to expect that to continue. Of course, it's all subject to the board's oversight and approval. But what that will do is take us during this high period of CapEx, which hopefully goes on for a very long period of time, and brings us comfortably down into the 60s from a payout ratio perspective. And so that's a good place to be.
Travis Miller: The board's oversight and approval, but what that will do is take us. During this high period of Capex, which hopefully goes on for a very long period of time.
Travis Miller: Rings us comfortably down into the Sixty's from a payout ratio perspective, and so that's a good place to be and we will evaluate every year with the weather forecast looks like and what's appropriate but right now I think the reasonable expectation is that continued modest growth, which is just below 3%.
Dan Tucker: And we'll evaluate every year what the forecast looks like and what's appropriate. Right now, I think the reasonable expectation is for continued modest growth, which is just below three percent. Yeah, okay. Very good And then, obviously, let's talk about demand growth. Put another way, what does demand growth mean for operating costs? growth. Is there a tight correlation there if you get six or whatever percent, Daniel DeMangro, who we also see, a similar increase in operating costs, or is there not a link? Yeah, there's certainly a relationship; I wouldn't call it a correlation, but, you know, to the extent we're building a new gas plant, certainly that comes along with incremental O&M. To the extent we're, you know, building new transmission distribution lines, there's some maintenance component to that, but that's also part of the cost structure that we're ensuring these new rates and revenues will cover, such that the Okay, I got it. Thanks so much; let's go ahead.
And we'll evaluate every year what the forecast looks like and what's appropriate. Right now, I think the reasonable expectation is for continued modest growth, which is just below three percent.
Travis Miller: Yeah, okay. Very good And then, obviously, let's talk about demand growth. Put another way, what does demand growth mean for operating costs? growth. Is there a tight correlation there if you get six or whatever percent, Daniel DeMangro, who we also see, a similar increase in operating costs, or is there not a link? Yeah, there's certainly a relationship; I wouldn't call it a correlation, but, you know, to the extent we're building a new gas plant, certainly that comes along with incremental O&M. To the extent we're, you know, building new transmission distribution lines, there's some maintenance component to that, but that's also part of the cost structure that we're ensuring these new rates and revenues will cover, such that the Okay, I got it. Thanks so much; let's go ahead.
Travis Miller: Yes. Okay, very good. And then obviously, a lot of talk about the demand growth. Put another way, what does demand growth mean for operating cost growth? Is there a tight correlation there if you get 6% or whatever percent annual demand growth? Should we also see a similar increase in operating costs? Or is there not a link there?
Speaker Change: Yes, okay very good.
Speaker Change: And then.
Speaker Change: But obviously a lot of talk about the demand growth.
Speaker Change: Put another way what is demand growth mean for operating costs growth is tight.
Speaker Change: Relation there if you get six or whatever percent.
Speaker Change: Annual demand growth should we also see a similar increase in operating costs or is there not a link.
Travis Miller: Yeah, there's certainly a relationship; I wouldn't call it a correlation, but, you know, to the extent we're building a new gas plant, certainly that comes along with incremental O&M. To the extent we're, you know, building new transmission distribution lines, there's some maintenance component to that, but that's also part of the cost structure that we're ensuring these new rates and revenues will cover, such that the Okay, I got it. Thanks so much; let's go ahead.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yes. There’s certainly a relationship, I wouldn’t call it a correlation, but to the extent we’re building a new gas plant, certainly, that comes along with incremental O&M to the extent we’re building new transmission distribution lines, there’s some maintenance component to that. But that’s also part of the cost structure that we’re ensuring these new rates and revenues will cover such that the net result is the opportunity to put downward pressure on the existing rates.
Speaker Change: Yes, there's certainly a relationship I wouldn't call it a correlation but to the extent we're building a new gas plant certainly that comes along with incremental O&M to the extent where.
Speaker Change: Building, new transmission distribution lines or some maintenance component to that but that's also part of the cost structure that we're ensuring these new rates and revenues will cover such that the net result is the opportunity to put downward pressure on existing routes.
Travis Miller: Okay. Got it. Thanks so much. That’s all I had.
Speaker Change: Okay got it.
Speaker Change: Thanks, So much that's all I had.
Orion Levine: Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Orion Levine with Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hi, everybody. Um, are you doing Fogel's? Good. How are you?
Chris Womack: Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Orion Levine with Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hi, everybody. Um, are you doing Fogel's? Good. How are you?
Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Speaker Change #100: Thank you.
Speaker Change #100: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi, everybody. Um, are you doing Fogel's? Good. How are you?
Ryan Levine: Hi, everybody.
Chris Womack: How are you doing? Fogel's? Good. How are you?
Chris Womack: How are you doing?
Ryan Levine: Hi, everybody.
Ryan Levine: Good. How are you? With Vogtle’s COD targeted for April freeing up some management attention and the personnel changes that were highlighted, do you see any meaningful opportunities to reduce O&M spending below the current guidance as time progresses? Or are these initiatives tabled, given all the opportunity in Georgia by the IRP process?
Ryan Levine: Are you doing vogels. Good how are you with the <unk> targeted for April of freeing up some management attention in the personnel changes that we're highlighting do you see any meaningful opportunities to reduce O&M spending below the current guidance. This time progresses are these initiatives cable given all the opportunity in Georgia.
Chris Womack: Um, with Fogel's COD targeted for April, freeing up some management attention and the personnel changes that were highlighted, do you see any meaningful opportunities to reduce O&M spending below the current guidance as time progresses? Or are these initiatives tabled given all the opportunities? No, I mean, we're always looking across our hand and finding ways to be more efficient.
Um, with Fogel's COD targeted for April, freeing up some management attention and the personnel changes that were highlighted, do you see any meaningful opportunities to reduce O&M spending below the current guidance as time progresses? Or are these initiatives tabled given all the opportunities?
Chris Womack: No. I mean, we’re always looking across our hand and finding ways to be more efficient. I mean, so there’s ongoing efforts to once again, as we look at affordability, I mean, we think about the opportunities to keep — to drive rates from pricing down because of sales growth and because of customer growth, but also making sure that we’re focused on looking internal in terms of being more efficient and finding ways to also drive down the cost of our O&M expenses. Also making sure, we take full advantage of fuel pricing. I mean, you see where natural gas prices are now. So looking across the entire portfolio, I mean, that is an ongoing continuous exercise that we’ll always focus on in terms of finding ways to drive down O&M and find ways to be more efficient.
Speaker Change #102: P passes.
Speaker Change #102: No.
Speaker Change #102: We're always looking across our hand, and finding ways to be more efficient. So there's ongoing efforts to once again as we look at affordability I mean, we think about the opportunities.
Chris Womack: I mean, so there's ongoing efforts to once again, as we look at affordability, I mean, we think about the opportunities to keep driving rates and prices down because of sales growth and because of customer growth, but also making sure that we're focused on looking internal in terms of being more efficient and finding ways to also drive down and drive down the cost of our O&M expenses. Also, making sure we take full advantage of fuel pricing; you see where natural gas prices are now. So looking across the entire portfolio, I mean, that is an ongoing, continuous exercise that we'll always focus on in terms of finding ways to drive down O&M costs and find ways to be more efficient.
Speaker Change #102: To keep to drive rates from pricing down because of sales growth and because the customer growth, but also making sure that we're focused on look at internal in terms of being more efficient in finding ways to also drive down and drive down the cost of our O&M expenses also making sure we take full advantage of fuel pricing that you see where natural gas.
Speaker Change #102: <unk> are now so looking across the entire portfolio that is an ongoing continuous exercise that will always focus on in terms of finding ways to drive down O&M and find ways to be more efficient.
Dan Tucker: And just as a nuance, all the costs associated with completing Vogel 3 and 4 are capital costs. Yeah, and the last thing I'd add, even though we've had this focus on Vogel, it hasn't kept us from paying attention to the fundamentals, to making sure that we provide the service that customers expect, but also to be focused on the cost of our product. Okay, and then, what's the peak hour load growth forecast in Georgia, and how much lower is that than the total kilowatt hour growth number that you cited, and as you're looking to execute on this plan, Are there any limitations with supply chains that could constrain growth opportunities? by the, Yeah, look, at supply chain... I think we're in terrific shape given our scale and, you know, just we've kind of seen this coming for a little while to the point where we can deploy the resources needed.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yes. And just as a nuance, all the costs associated with completing Vogtle 3 and 4 is a capital cost. And so those aren’t O&M costs that are an opportunity to reduce.
Speaker Change #102: And just as a nuance all all the cost associated with completing both the three and floors of capital cost and so.
Yeah, and the last thing I'd add, even though we've had this focus on Vogel, it hasn't kept us from paying attention to the fundamentals, to making sure that we provide the service that customers expect, but also to be focused on the cost of our product. Okay, and then, what's the peak hour load growth forecast in Georgia, and how much lower is that than the total kilowatt hour growth number that you cited, and as you're looking to execute on this plan, Are there any limitations with supply chains that could constrain growth opportunities? by the, Yeah, look, at supply chain... I think we're in terrific shape given our scale and, you know, just we've kind of seen this coming for a little while to the point where we can deploy the resources needed.
Chris Womack: Yes. And the last thing I’d add, even though we’ve had this focus on Vogtle, but it hasn’t kept us from paying attention to the fundamentals, to making sure that we provide the service that customers expect, but also being focused on the cost of our product.
Speaker Change #102: Those arent O&M cost that are an opportunity to reduce yes last thing I would add.
Speaker Change #102: We've had this focus on vogel, but it hadn't kept us from paying attention to the fundamentals to making sure that we provide the service that our customers expect but also being focused on on the cost of our product.
Ryan Levine: Okay, and then, what's the peak hour load growth forecast in Georgia, and how much lower is that than the total kilowatt hour growth number that you cited, and as you're looking to execute on this plan, Are there any limitations with supply chains that could constrain growth opportunities? by the, Yeah, look, at supply chain... I think we're in terrific shape given our scale and, you know, just we've kind of seen this coming for a little while to the point where we can deploy the resources needed.
Ryan Levine: Okay. And then what’s the peak hour load growth forecast in Georgia? And how much lower is that than the total kilowatt hour growth number that you cited? And as you’re looking to execute on this plan, are there any limitations with supply chains that could constrain growth opportunities via the IRP process?
Speaker Change #103: Okay and then.
Speaker Change #103: What's the peak hour load growth forecast in Georgia, and how much lower is that the total kilowatt hour.
Growth number that you cited and as Youre looking to execute on this plan.
Speaker Change #103: How are there any limitations with supply chain that could constrain growth opportunities.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yeah. Look, on supply chain, I think we’re in terrific shape, given our scale and just — we’ve kind of seen this coming for a little while to the point where we can deploy the resources needed. On your peak question, we’ll have to follow-up with you on that, Ryan. Just let’s connect with the Investor Relations team and get you an answer then.
Speaker Change #103: The RFP process.
Yes look on supply chain.
Speaker Change #104: I think we're in terrific shape, given our scale and.
Speaker Change #104: We've kind of seen this coming for a little while to the point, where we can deploy the resources needed on your peak question, we'll have to follow up with you on that load just let's connect with the Investor Relations team and get you an answer that.
Dan Tucker: On your Pete question, we'll have to follow up with you on that, but just let's connect with the investor relations team and get you an answer. Well, thanks for taking my question. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hey, good afternoon.
On your Pete question, we'll have to follow up with you on that, but just let's connect with the investor relations team and get you an answer.
Speaker Change #105: Well, thanks for taking my questions.
Ryan Levine: Ok. Thanks for taking my question. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hey, good afternoon.
Ryan Levine: Ok. Thanks for taking my question.
Speaker Change #106: Thanks Pat.
Chris Womack: Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hey, good afternoon.
Chris Womack: Thank you.
Chris Womack: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hey, good afternoon.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Speaker Change #106: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Paul Patterson with Glen Rock Associates. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Paul Patterson: Thank you Paul good afternoon.
Paul Patterson: Hi. Good afternoon. Congratulations on this these opportunities that you guys have. Just with respect to the data center stuff, I mean, a; you did indicate in your prepared remarks, it seemed that this was based on actual activity, physical construction activity, etc. Is it correct to assume that these guys — these data centers, et cetera, have a price in mind? I mean, they wouldn’t be doing this. I mean, obviously, they’re using a large amount of electricity. It’s part of the economics of their determination to move that they know how much they’re going to be essentially paying for power if they’re doing this, correct?
Paul Patterson: Hey, congratulations on this, this, , , , , , actual sort of activity, physical construction activity, etc. Is it correct to assume that these guys, these data centers, etc. Sabo, have a price in mind. I mean, they wouldn't be doing this.
Paul Patterson: Congratulations on this.
Speaker Change #108: Uh huh.
Paul Patterson: This these opportunities that you guys have.
Just with respect to the data center stuff I mean.
Paul Patterson: You did indicate your prepared remarks it seemed that this was based on.
Paul Patterson: Actual sort of.
Paul Patterson: Activity physical construction activity et cetera.
Paul Patterson: Is it correct to assume that these guys.
Paul Patterson: It centers et cetera.
Paul Patterson: Have them.
Paul Patterson: Have a price in mind I mean, they wouldn't be doing this obviously, they're using erosion that electricity.
Chris Womack: I mean, obviously, they're using a large amount of electricity. It's part of the economics of their determination to move, that they know how much they're going to be essentially paying for power if they do this, correct? I think there is a yes. I mean, they may not know exactly what the price will be, but once again, as we sit with them and understand their needs, what their desires are, and the level of service, I mean that all goes into consideration of what the ultimate price will be. I mean the value, location, reliability, resiliency, all those things go into consideration as we kind of price these projects out. And so that's a part of the negotiation, that's a part of the conversation that we have with. Okay, in some jurisdictions, because they have their own backup power, because they have to be there in case there is an outage or something, they have to get approval from regulatory commissions, you know, their respective state regulatory commissions.
I mean, obviously, they're using a large amount of electricity. It's part of the economics of their determination to move, that they know how much they're going to be essentially paying for power if they do this, correct?
Paul Patterson: It's part of the economics of their determination to move.
Speaker Change #109: Thank you.
Speaker Change #109: How much theyre going to be essentially paying for power if theyre doing that is correct.
I think there is a yes. I mean, they may not know exactly what the price will be, but once again, as we sit with them and understand their needs, what their desires are, and the level of service, I mean that all goes into consideration of what the ultimate price will be. I mean the value, location, reliability, resiliency, all those things go into consideration as we kind of price these projects out. And so that's a part of the negotiation, that's a part of the conversation that we have with. Okay, in some jurisdictions, because they have their own backup power, because they have to be there in case there is an outage or something, they have to get approval from regulatory commissions, you know, their respective state regulatory commissions.
Chris Womack: I think there is — yes, I mean, they may not know exactly what the price will be. But once again, as we sit with them, understanding their needs, what their desires are and the level of service, I mean that all goes into consideration of what the ultimate price will be. I mean, the value, location, reliability, resiliency, all of those things go into consideration as we kind of price these projects out. And so that’s a part of the negotiation, that’s part of the conversation that we have with it.
Speaker Change #109: Okay.
Speaker Change #109: I think there is a yes I mean, they may not know exactly what the.
Speaker Change #109: Price will be but once again as we sit with them understanding their needs what their desires are and the level of service that all goes into in to consideration of what the ultimate price will be valued location reliability resiliency all of those things go into consideration as we kind of price these projects.
Speaker Change #109: And so that's a part of the negotiation that's part of the conversation that we have with them.
Paul Patterson: Okay. In some jurisdictions, because they have their own backup power, because they have to be there in case there is an outage or something, they have to get approval from regulatory commissions, their respective state regulatory commissions. Is that the case in Georgia?
Speaker Change #109: Okay.
Speaker Change #109: In some jurisdictions because they have their own backup power because they have to be there in case, there was an outage or something.
Speaker Change #109: They have to get approval from regulatory commissions.
Chris Womack: Is that the case in Georgia? No, I mean, like I said, we will, I mean, they'll. Yeah, yeah, there's some customer-sided programs that have been proposed in the IRP, Paul, that, you know, those are being evaluated. And those kind of serve the same purpose, but it's not the dynamic that you're describing.
Is that the case in Georgia?
Speaker Change #109: Their respective state regulatory commissions is that the case in Georgia.
No, I mean, like I said, we will, I mean, they'll. Yeah, yeah, there's some customer-sided programs that have been proposed in the IRP, Paul, that, you know, those are being evaluated. And those kind of serve the same purpose, but it's not the dynamic that you're describing.
Chris Womack: No, I mean, like I said we will - I mean, they'll -
Speaker Change #110: No I mean like I said I mean, we will.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yeah, there’s some customer-sided programs that have been proposed in the IRP, Paul, that those are being evaluated and those serve the same purpose, but it’s not the dynamic that you’re describing in those other states.
Speaker Change #110: Yeah, Yeah, there's some customer sided programs that have been proposed in the ERP Paul that those are being evaluated in those kind of serve the same purpose, but its not the dynamic that you're describing this other stuff.
Dan Tucker: Okay, but just roughly speaking, when we're talking about the average data center rate versus the system rate, is there a rule of thumb as to where that kind of is? Do you understand what I'm saying? In other words, I mean, how much of a percentage of the average system rate for Georgia Power, let's say, would a data center customer be roughly, I mean, just roughly speaking, speaking of getting, I don't think so. I think we may be better informed as we bring some more projects online, and right now, I don't think that would be the case, and plus it could be trade secrets as well. Okay, just finally, when Does that go up a lot? In other words, is it kind of radical?
Paul Patterson: Okay. Then just roughly speaking, when we’re talking about the average data center rate versus the system rate, is there a rule of thumb as to where that kind of is? Do you follow what I’m saying? In other words, I mean how much of a percentage of the average system rate for Georgia Power, let’s say, with a data center customer be roughly, I mean, just roughly speaking, you’re getting?
Speaker Change #110: Okay, and then just roughly speaking what were talking about the average data center versus the system right.
Speaker Change #110: The rule of thumb of as to where that kind of is.
Speaker Change #110: People are what I'm, saying in other words, I mean, how much.
Speaker Change #110: How much of a percentage of the average system rate for Georgia power, Let's say would a data center customer.
Speaker Change #110: I mean, just roughly speaking speaking you are getting.
Speaker Change #111: I don't think so.
Speaker Change #111: I think we may be better informed as we bring some more projects on line.
I don't think so. I think we may be better informed as we bring some more projects online, and right now, I don't think that would be the case, and plus it could be trade secrets as well. Okay, just finally, when Does that go up a lot? In other words, is it kind of radical?
Chris Womack: I don’t think so. I think we may be better informed as we bring some more projects online. Right now, I don’t think that would be the case. And plus it could be trade secrets as well, so.
Speaker Change #112: Right now I think I don't think that would be the case.
Speaker Change #113: Plus it could be trade secrets as well so.
Speaker Change #113: Okay.
Speaker Change #113: Finally, we're looking at 26 27 and 28.
Paul Patterson: Okay. Then just finally, when we’re looking at '26, '27 and '28 in that 9% number, for instance, for Georgia Power, does that go up a lot? In other words, is it kind of — is '28 a lot higher than '26, if you follow what I’m saying? In other words, it’s a three-year period, the number jumps up a lot in that period? Do you follow what I’m saying? In other words, is it roughly ratable over that period of time? Or is this sort of a hockey stick in terms of what you see in terms of demand?
Speaker Change #113:
Speaker Change #113: And that 9% number for instance for Georgia power does that go up a lot but in other words is it.
Paul Patterson: I mean, is 28 a lot higher than 26, if you understand what I'm saying? In other words, it's a three-year period. The number jumps up a lot in that period, um, do you understand what I'm saying? In other words, is it roughly weighted over that period of time, or is this sort of a hockey stick in terms of what you see in terms of demand?
Speaker Change #113: I mean, it's 26.
Speaker Change #113: You need a lot harder than 'twenty six if you follow what I'm, saying in other words, it's a three year period, the number jumps up a lot in that period.
Speaker Change #113:
Speaker Change #113: Do you follow what I'm, saying in other words.
Speaker Change #113: Is it.
Speaker Change #113: Roughly the.
Speaker Change #113: Ratable over that period of time or is this sort of a hockey stick in terms of.
Speaker Change #113: What you what you see in terms of estimating it.
Daniel S. Tucker: Yes. It’s fairly ratable, Paul. It’s obviously not perfectly linear by any means. But the significant load really begins to come in, in, say, late '25 and into '26, which is why a lot of the resource proposals you see at Georgia Power are to really serve the '26-'27 winter peak to make sure they’re in place for that, and then it continues to grow from there.
Speaker Change #113: It's fairly ratable, Paul it's obviously not perfectly linear by any means but.
That the significant load really begins to come in late 25 and into 26, which is why a lot of the resource proposals you see at Georgia Power are to really serve the 26-27 winter peak to make sure they're in place for that, and then it continues to grow from there. Well, thanks so much, and congratulations. Thank you. Thanks, Paul, www.youtube.com.uk, Thank you, and that will conclude today's question and answer session. Sir, are there any closing remarks? Again, let me say Southern Company had an exceptional year in 2023. And I am really excited about the future of this company. Let me thank everybody for joining us today and wish everybody a happy day. Thank you very much. Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Southern Company fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.
That the significant load really begins to come in late 25 and into 26, which is why a lot of the resource proposals you see at Georgia Power are to really serve the 26-27 winter peak to make sure they're in place for that, and then it continues to grow from there.
Speaker Change #113: The significant load really begins to come in and say late 'twenty five 'twenty six which is why a lot of the resource proposals you see a georgia power or to really serve the 'twenty six 'twenty seven winter peak make sure. They are in place for that and then it continues to grow from there.
Speaker Change #114: Well, thanks, so much and.
Paul Patterson: Well, thanks so much, and congratulations. Thank you. Thanks, Paul, www.youtube.com.uk, Thank you, and that will conclude today's question and answer session. Sir, are there any closing remarks? Again, let me say Southern Company had an exceptional year in 2023. And I am really excited about the future of this company. Let me thank everybody for joining us today and wish everybody a happy day. Thank you very much. Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Southern Company fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.
Paul Patterson: Well, thanks so much, and congratulations.
Speaker Change #113: Congratulations.
Paul Patterson: Thank you. Thanks, Paul, www.youtube.com.uk, Thank you, and that will conclude today's question and answer session. Sir, are there any closing remarks? Again, let me say Southern Company had an exceptional year in 2023. And I am really excited about the future of this company. Let me thank everybody for joining us today and wish everybody a happy day. Thank you very much. Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Southern Company fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.
Chris Womack: Thank you.
Speaker Change #115: Thank you thanks Paul.
Paul Patterson: Thanks, Paul, www.youtube.com.uk, Thank you, and that will conclude today's question and answer session. Sir, are there any closing remarks? Again, let me say Southern Company had an exceptional year in 2023. And I am really excited about the future of this company. Let me thank everybody for joining us today and wish everybody a happy day. Thank you very much. Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Southern Company fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.
Daniel S. Tucker: Thanks, Paul.
Paul Patterson: www.youtube.com.uk, Thank you, and that will conclude today's question and answer session. Sir, are there any closing remarks? Again, let me say Southern Company had an exceptional year in 2023. And I am really excited about the future of this company. Let me thank everybody for joining us today and wish everybody a happy day. Thank you very much. Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Southern Company fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.
Operator: Thank you. And that will conclude today’s question-and-answer session. Sir, are there any closing remarks?
Speaker Change #115: Yeah.
Speaker Change #116: Thank you and that will conclude today's question and answer session.
Paul Patterson: Again, let me say Southern Company had an exceptional year in 2023. And I am really excited about the future of this company. Let me thank everybody for joining us today and wish everybody a happy day. Thank you very much. Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Southern Company fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.
Chris Womack: Again, let me say, Southern Company had an exceptional year in 2023. And I am really excited about the future of this company. Let me thank everybody for joining us today, and wish everybody a happy day, and thank you very much.
Speaker Change #117: Are there any closing remarks.
Speaker Change #118: Again, let me say southern company had an exceptional year in 2023 and I am really excited about the future of this company. Let me thank everybody for joining us today and wish everybody a happy day in.
Operator: Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Southern Company fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.
Speaker Change #119: Thank you very much.
Speaker Change #118: Yeah.
Speaker Change #120: Thank you, Sir ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the southern company fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. You May now disconnect have a good day.