Q4 2023 Brighthouse Financial Inc Earnings Call
Yes.
Livia: Thanks for watching! Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Brighthouse Financial's fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings conference call. My name is Livia, and I'll be your coordinator today.
[music].
Okay.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.
Speaker Change: I'll come to Brighthouse Financial's fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings conference call.
Livia: My name is Livia and I'll be your coordinator today.
Operator: At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. We will facilitate a question and answer session towards the end of the conference call. In fairness to all participants, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to send the presentation over to Dana Amante, Head of Investor Relations. Ms. Amante, you may proceed. Thank you, and good morning.
Livia: At this time all participants are in a listen only mode.
Livia: We will facilitate a question and answer session towards the end of the conference call.
Livia: In fairness to all participants please limit yourself to one question and one follow up.
Livia: As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.
Livia: I would now like to turn the presentation over to Dana Ahmad head of Investor Relations. Mr. <unk> you May proceed.
Livia: Okay.
Dana Ahmad: Thank you and good morning, welcome to Brighthouse Financial's fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call materials for today's call were released last night and can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website.
Dana Amante: Welcome to Brighthouse Financial's fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call. Materials for today's call were released last night and can be found in the investor relations section of our website. We encourage you to review all of these materials.
Dana Ahmad: I encourage you to review all of these materials.
Dana Amante: Today, you will hear from Erik Steigerwalt, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Ed Spehar, our Chief Financial Officer. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call up for a question and answer period. Also here with us today to participate in the discussion are Myles Lambert, our Chief Distribution and Marketing Officer, David Rosenbaum, Head of Product and Underwriting, and John Rosenthal, our Chief Investment Officer. Before we begin, I'd like to note that our discussion during this call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal Securities Law. Brighthouse Financial's actual results may differ materially from the results anticipated in the forward-looking statements as a result of risks and uncertainties described from time to time in Brighthouse Financial's filings with the SEC. Information discussed on today's call speaks only as of today, February 13, 2024. The company undertakes no obligation to update any information discussed on today's call. During this call, we will be discussing certain financial measures that are not based on generally accepted accounting principles, also known as non-GAAP measures.
Dana Ahmad: Today, you will hear from Eric Steigerwalt, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Ed <unk>, Our Chief Financial Officer. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call up for a question and answer period.
Dana Ahmad: Also here with us today to participate in the discussions are Myles Lambert chief distribution, and marketing officer, David Rosenbaum head of product and underwriting and John Rosenthal, Our Chief investment Officer.
Dana Ahmad: Before we begin I'd like to note that our discussion. During this call may include forward looking statements within the meaning of the federal Securities laws Brighthouse Financial's actual results may differ materially from the results anticipated in the forward looking statements as a result of risks and uncertainties described from time to time in Brighthouse Financial's filings with the.
Dana Ahmad: SEC <unk>.
Dana Ahmad: Information discussed on today's call speak only as of today February 13th 2024.
Dana Ahmad: The company undertakes no obligation to update any information discussed on today's call.
Dana Ahmad: During this call we will be discussing certain financial measures that are not based on generally accepted accounting principles also known as non-GAAP measures reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures on a historical basis to the most directly comparable GAAP measures and related definitions may be found in our earnings release slide presentation and financial.
Dana Amante: Reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures on a historical basis to the most directly comparable GAAP measures and related definitions may be found in our earnings release, slide presentation, and financial supplement. And finally, references to statutory results, including certain statutory-based measures used by management, are preliminary due to the timing of the filing of the Statutory State. Now, I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Erik Steigerwalt. Thank you, Dana, and good morning, everyone.
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Dana Ahmad: And finally references to statutory results, including certain statutory based measure used by management are preliminary due to the timing of the filing of the statutory statements.
Dana Ahmad: And now I'll turn the call over to our CEO Eric Steigerwalt.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: Thank you Dana and good morning, everyone looking back on 2023 I'm proud of the progress we made as we continued to execute on our strategic priorities. We bought back a substantial amount of common stock delivered strong sales results enhanced and grew our core products suite and nicely controlled expenses.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: Looking back on 2023, I'm proud of the progress we made as we continued to execute on our strategic priorities. We bought back a substantial amount of common stock, delivered strong sales results, enhanced and grew our core product suite, and nicely controlled expenses, all while maintaining our strong balance sheet and robust liquidity. We continue to return capital to shareholders through the company's common stock repurchase program. For the full year 2023, we repurchased $250 million of our common stock, reducing shares outstanding relative to year-end 2022 by approximately 7%, further demonstrating our ongoing commitment to return capital to our shareholders over time. In November, we announced a new share repurchase authorization of up to an additional $750 million. Additionally, we delivered strong sales results and further strengthened our annuity and life insurance product portfolio.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: All while maintaining our strong balance sheet and robust liquidity, we continue to return capital to shareholders through the Companys common stock repurchase program for the full year 2023, we repurchased $250 million of our common stock.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: Using shares outstanding relative to year end 2022 by approximately 7% further demonstrating our ongoing commitment to return capital to our shareholders over time in November we announced a new share repurchase authorization of up to an additional 750 million.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: We delivered strong sales results and further strengthened our annuity and life insurance product portfolios.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: For full year 2023, total annuity sales were $10.6 billion, and total life insurance sales were $102 million, both of which exceeded our 2023 target. Contributing to the strong total annuity sales results for the full year 2023 was a record sales year for our flagship shield level annuity product. Shield sales totaled $6.9 billion, an increase of 17% on a full-year basis.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: For full year 2023, total annuity sales were 10 $6 billion in total life insurance sales were $102 million, both of which exceeded our 2023 targets.
Contributing to the strong total annuity sales results for the full year 2023 was a record sales year for our flagship shield level annuity products fueled sales total totaled $6 9 billion, an increase of 17% on a full year basis.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: Sales of our fixed-rate annuities were also a strong contributor to the overall annuity sales, totaling $2.7 billion, down from $3.7 billion in total fixed-rate annuity sales in 2022. As I mentioned, in 2023, we continue to strengthen our annuity and life insurance product portfolios. In May, we introduced new enhancements to our shield-level annuity product suite as we continue to be a leader in the buffered annuity marketplace that we helped to create. In November, we launched Brighthouse SecureKey fixed-indexed annuities, expanding our distribution footprint in the fixed-indexed annuity market. And we also expanded our life insurance suite with the launch of Brighthouse SmartGuard Plus, our first registered index-linked universal life insurance policy. Turning to expenses, we recognize that being a low-cost producer is a great way to gain a sustainable competitive advantage in this industry.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: Sales of our fixed rate annuities were also a strong contributor to the overall annuity sales totaling $2 $7 billion.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: Down from $3 7 billion in total fixed rate annuity sales in 2022.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: As I mentioned in 2023, we continue to strengthen our annuity and life insurance product portfolios in May we introduced new enhancements to our shield level annuities product suite as we continue to be a leader in the buffered annuity marketplace that we helped to create in November we launched Brighthouse secure key.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: <unk> fixed indexed annuities, expanding our distribution footprint in the fixed indexed annuity market and we also expanded our life insurance suite with the launch of Brighthouse Smart Guard plus.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: Our first registered index linked Universal life insurance policy, turning to expenses, we recognize that being a low cost producer is a great way to a sustainable competitive advantage in this industry efficiency gains or what will allow us to consistently offer competitive products in the marketplace.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: Efficiency gains are what will allow us to consistently offer competitive products in the marketplace while also generating an appropriate return for shareholders. Our focus on controlling expenses was illustrated in 2023, with full-year corporate expenses up only 2% to $885 million, that's a pre-tax number, in an environment with core inflation of approximately 4%. Finally, we continued to focus on maintaining the strength of our balance sheet at the end of the year, with an estimated combined risk-based capital or RBC ratio of approximately 420% and liquid assets at the holding company of $1.3 billion. The composition of the RBC ratio has changed, largely driven by the implementation of a new statutory requirement to reflect the effects of all anticipated future hedging on our Variable Annuity, or VA, reserves and required capital.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: I'll also generating an appropriate return for shareholders.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: Our focus on controlling expenses was illustrated in 2023.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: With full year corporate expenses up only 2% to $885 million, that's a pretax number.
In an environment with core inflation of approximately 4%. Finally, we continued to focus on maintaining the strength of our balance sheet ended the year with an estimated combined risk based capital or RBC ratio of approximately 420%.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: And liquid assets at the holding company.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: Of $1.3 billion.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: The composition of the RBC ratio has changed largely driven by the implementation of a new statutory requirement to reflect the effects of all anticipated future hedging.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: On our variable annuity or VA.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: <unk> and required capital the implementation of this new requirement had a favorable impact on our required capital with an offsetting increase in statutory reserves.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: The implementation of this new requirement had a favorable impact on our required capital, with an offsetting increase in statutory reserves. So, while our total combined adjusted capital, or TAC, declined to $6.3 billion as of year-end 2023, there was an insignificant impact on our RBC ratio. Ed will discuss our preliminary statutory results and the new statutory requirement in more detail in a moment.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: While our total combined adjusted capital.
Tac declined to $6 $3 billion as of year end 2023, there was an insignificant impact to our RBC ratio and we'll discuss our preliminary statutory results and the new statutory requirement in more detail in a moment.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: But I want to highlight that our overall risk management strategy remains unchanged, and we do not anticipate that this new statutory requirement will have a material impact on our long-term statutory free cash flows. Before turning the call over to Ed to discuss our fourth quarter financial results, I'd like to touch just for a moment on our priorities for 2024. First, we will continue to strengthen our product suite and leverage the depth and breadth of our expertise, along with our strong distribution relationships, to competitively position ourselves in the markets we choose to compete in. We believe that this combination will lead to continued growth in shield sales, an expanded presence in the fixed-indexed annuity market, and first-dollar contributions into our worksite product offering in partnership with BlackRock. We remain very excited about our expanded relationship with BlackRock to deliver BlackRock's Lifepath Paycheck. They are working with 14 plan sponsors at this point to implement this product offering. These 14 plan sponsors total $27 billion in target date fund assets and include more than 500,000 individual employees.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: But I want to highlight that our overall risk management strategy remains unchanged and we do not anticipate that this new statutory requirement, we will have a material impact on our long term statutory free cash flows before turning the call over to add to discuss our fourth quarter financial results I'd like.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: To touch just for a moment on our priorities for 2024 first we will continue to strengthen our product suite and leverage the depth and breadth of our expertise along with our strong distribution relationships to competitively position ourselves in the markets. We choose to compete and we believe that this combination will lead to continued.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: Growth in field sales and expanded presence in the fixed indexed annuity market.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: And the first dollar contributions into our Worksite product offering in partnership with Blackrock, We remain very excited about our expanded relationship with Blackrock to deliver Blackrock lifetime paycheck.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: They are working with 14 planned sponsors at this point to implement this product offering.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: These 14 planned sponsors.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: Total $27 billion in target date fund assets.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: And include more than 500000 individual employees initial plan sponsor funding is expected to occur this year.
Edward A. Spehar: Initial plan sponsor funding is expected to occur this year. Additionally, we intend to continue to manage our expenses with the expectation that our corporate expenses will be down in 2024 versus 2023. Finally, balance sheet strength always remains a key priority, and we believe that our strong RBC ratio and substantial holding company cash position will allow us to continue to return capital to shareholders. I'm proud of all that we achieved in 2023 and look forward to 2024 as the Brighthouse Financial franchise continues to grow and evolve into a more diversified company. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Ed to discuss our fourth quarter financial results. Thank you, Erik, and good morning, everyone.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: Second we intend to continue to manage our expect our expenses.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: With the expectation that our corporate expenses will be down in 2024 versus 2023, finally balance sheet strength always remains a key priority and we believe that our strong RBC ratio and substantial holding company cash position will allow us to continue to return capital to shareholders I'm proud.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: <unk> of all that we achieved in 2023 and look forward to 2024 as the Brighthouse financial franchise continues to grow and evolve to a more diversified company and with that I'll turn the call over to Ed to discuss our fourth quarter financial results.
Ed: Thank you, Eric and good morning, everyone.
Edward A. Spehar: I am pleased with our results in the fourth quarter and for the full year 2020. Our estimated combined risk-based capital, or RBC ratio, increased approximately 10 points sequentially to 420 percent, even after $350 million in subsidiary dividends were paid to the holding company in the fourth quarter. And the subsidiary dividends explain the sequential increase in holding company liquid assets to $1.3 billion a year.
Ed: I am pleased with our results in the fourth quarter and for the full year 2023.
Ed: Our estimated combined risk based capital or RBC ratio increased approximately 10 points sequentially to 420%, even after $350 million in subsidiary dividends paid to the holding company in the fourth quarter.
Ed: And the subsidiary dividends explain the sequential increase in holding company liquid assets to $1 $3 billion at year end.
Edward A. Spehar: Liquid Assets at The Holding Company increased from $1 billion at year-end 2022, even though we repurchased $250 million of stock in 2020. As Erik touched on earlier, our preliminary statutory results as of year-end 2023 reflect the impact of a new statutory requirement, which mandates that life insurers reflect all anticipated future hedging in variable annuity reserves and capital. There are three things that I believe are important to highlight related to this new statutory requirement.
Ed: Liquid assets at the holding company increased from $1 billion at year end 2022, even though we repurchased $250 million of stock in 2023.
Ed: As Eric touched on earlier, our preliminary statutory results as of year end 2023 reflect the impact of a new statutory requirement.
Ed: Which mandates that life insurers reflect all anticipated future hedging in variable annuity reserves and capital.
Ed: There are three things that I believe are important to highlight related to this new statutory requirement.
Edward A. Spehar: First, our total asset requirement at CTE 98 was reduced by $1.14 billion because we now include the benefits from all anticipated future hedges. As a reminder, CTE 98 is a conditional tail expectation that is the average of the worst 2% of capital markets scenarios for the company. There is a substantial decrease in the total asset requirement at CTE 98 from this new requirement because we now reflect the benefit of hedging over the life of the block of business, versus previously only reflecting the benefit from existing hedges. Second, the inclusion of all anticipated future hedges increased our total asset requirement at CTE 70 by $870 million.
Ed: First our total asset requirement at Cte 98 was reduced by $1. One 4 billion because we now include the benefits from all anticipated future hedging.
Ed: As a reminder, Cte 98 is a conditional tail expectation that as the average of the worst 2% of capital market scenarios for the company.
Ed: There is a substantial decrease in the total asset requirement at Cte 98 from this new requirement.
Because we now reflect the benefit of hedging over the life of the block of business.
Ed: Versus previously only reflecting the benefit from existing hedges.
Ed: Second inclusion of all anticipated future hedges increased our total asset requirement at Cte 70 by $870 million.
Edward A. Spehar: And this translated to an equivalent increase in reserves, reducing combined total adjusted capital, or CAC. CTE 70 is a conditional tail expectation that is the average of the worst 30% of capital market scenarios for the company. Given that we are hedging to protect CTE 98, which is a more conservative calculation, it is understandable that this new statutory requirement is a cost at CTE 7. And third, the net impact on the RBC ratio from this new statutory requirement was insignificant.
Ed: And this translated to an equivalent increase in reserves, reducing combined total adjusted capital or Tac.
Cte 70, as a conditional tail expectation that as the average of the worst 30% of capital market scenarios for the company.
Ed: Given that we are hedging to protect Cte 98, which is a more conservative calculation. It is understandable that this new statutory requirement is a cost at Cte 70.
Ed: And third the net impact on the RBC ratio from this new statutory requirement was insignificant.
Edward A. Spehar: The impact of reflecting future hedges has a favorable impact on required capital because the total risk is lower, and more of the risk is now reflected in reserves. As a result, the decline in TAC associated with the new statutory requirement was effectively offset by a decline in required capital. Importantly, our risk management strategy remains unchanged.
Ed: The impact from reflecting future hedges has a favorable impact on required capital because the total risk is lower and more of the risk is now reflected in reserves.
Ed: As a result, the decline in Tac associated with the new statutory requirement was effectively offset by a decline in required capital.
Ed: Importantly, our risk management strategy remains unchanged.
Edward A. Spehar: We continue to manage the existing shield and variable annuity blocks on a combined basis, with a statutory hedge target and a $500 million maximum first loss tolerance. In addition, we do not anticipate material changes in hedge costs under the normal, moderate, and adverse scenarios that were the basis for the long-term statutory free cash flow projections we provided in September 2023. As of December 31st, 2023, our TAC was $6.3 billion, which compares with $7.3 billion as of the end of the third quarter of 2021. The key drivers of the sequential decline were the impact of the new statutory requirement and $350 million in subsidiary dividends to the holding, with $266 million from Brighthouse Life Insurance Company or BLIC and $84 million from New England Life Insurance. Additionally, we realized the capital benefits associated with the internal reinsurance transaction between Blick and its New York affiliate that we had discussed with you previously.
Ed: We continue to manage the existing shield and variable annuity blocks on a combined basis with a statutory hedge target and a $500 million maximum first loss tolerance.
Ed: In addition, we do not anticipate material changes in hedge costs under the normal moderate and adverse scenarios that were the basis for the long term statutory free cash flow projections, we provided in September 2023.
Ed: As of December 31, 2023, our Tac was $6 3 billion.
Ed: Which compares with $7 3 billion as of the end of the third quarter of 2023.
Ed: The key drivers of the sequential decline, where the impact of the new statutory requirement.
Ed: And $350 million in subsidiary dividends to the holding company.
Ed: With $266 million from Brighthouse life insurance company are black and $84 million from New England life Insurance company.
Also we realize the capital benefits associated with the internal reinsurance transaction between Black and its New York affiliate that we had discussed with you previously.
Edward A. Spehar: And this included the release of approximately $200 million of asset adequacy testing. I also want to note that, largely because of the reserve increase associated with the new statutory requirement, we had a negative unassigned funds balance at BLIC of approximately $1.1 billion. Therefore, any potential dividend from BLIC in 2024 would be subject to regulatory approval as an extraordinary dividend, given the substantial amount of cash at the holding company. Our capital return plan is not dependent on dividends from BLIC. Now, turning to adjusted earnings results for the fourth quarter. Adjusted earnings for the quarter of $177 million reflected a $12 million unfavorable notable item, or $0.19 per share, related to legal matters.
And this included the release of approximately $200 million of asset adequacy testing reserves.
Ed: I also want to note that largely because of the reserve increase associated with the new statutory requirement, we had a negative unassigned funds balance at <unk> of approximately $1 1 billion at year end.
Ed: Therefore, any potential dividend from black in 2024 would be subject to regulatory approval as an extraordinary dividend.
Given the substantial amount of cash at the holding company.
Our capital return plan is not dependent on dividends from Blake.
Ed: Now turning to adjusted earnings results in the fourth quarter.
Ed: Adjusted earnings for the quarter of $177 million reflected a $12 million unfavorable notable items or <unk> 19 per share related to legal matters.
Edward A. Spehar: Adjusted earnings, excluding the impact of the notable item, were $189 million, which compares with adjusted earnings on the same basis of $275 million in the third quarter of 2023 and $282 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. Excluding the impact of the notable item, the adjusted earnings results in the fourth quarter were below our average quarterly run rate expectation. This was driven by lower alternative investment returns and seasonally higher expenses. Alternative investment income was approximately $60 million, or $0.95 per share, below our average quarterly run rate expectation.
Ed: Adjusted earnings excluding the impact from the notable items were $189 million, which compares with adjusted earnings on the same basis of $275 million in the third quarter of 2023.
Ed: And $282 million in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Ed: Excluding the impact of the notable items the adjusted earnings results in the fourth quarter were below our average quarterly run rate expectation.
Ed: This was driven by lower alternative investment returns and seasonally higher expenses.
Ed: Alternative investment income was approximately $60 million or 95 per share below our average quarterly run rate expectation.
Edward A. Spehar: The alternative investment yield was 0.7% in the fourth quarter. Additionally, corporate expenses are typically higher in the fourth quarter. This seasonality resulted in higher expenses compared with our average quarterly run rate expectation. Turning to the segment results in the fourth quarter, the annuity segment reported adjusted earnings of $245 million.
Ed: The alternative investment yield was 0.7% in the fourth quarter.
Ed: Additionally, corporate expenses are typically higher in the fourth quarter.
Ed: This seasonality resulted in higher expenses compared with our average quarterly run rate expectation.
Ed: Turning to the segment results in the fourth quarter.
Ed: The annuity segment reported adjusted earnings of $245 million.
Edward A. Spehar: Sequentially, annuity results were driven by lower fees, higher expenses, and a lower underwriting margin. Adjusted earnings in the life segment were $4 million. On a sequential basis, life segment results reflect a higher underwriting margin, partially offset by lower net investment income and higher expenses. The runoff segment reported an adjusted loss of $50 million.
Sequentially annuity results were driven by lower fees higher expenses and a lower underwriting margin.
Ed: That earnings in the life segment were $4 million.
Ed: On a sequential basis life segment results reflect a higher underwriting margin, partially offset by lower net investment income and higher expenses.
Ed: The run off segment reported an adjusted loss of $50 million.
Edward A. Spehar: sequentially, results reflect a lower underwriting margin and lower net investment income. Corporate and other had an adjusted loss, excluding notable items of $10 million, and sequentially reflects lower expenses partially offset by a lower tax rate. In closing, we ended the year with a strong statutory balance sheet and substantial cash at the holding. Our financial position allowed us to support growth as well as return capital to shareholders in 2023. And we expect this to continue in 2024. We would now like to turn the call over to the operator for your questions. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, you will need to press star 1-1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.
Ed: Sequentially results reflect the lower underwriting margin and lower net investment income.
Ed: Corporate and other had an adjusted loss, excluding notable items of $10 million and.
Ed: <unk> reflects lower expenses, partially offset by a lower tax benefit.
Ed: In closing we ended the year with a strong statutory balance sheet and substantial cash at the holding company.
Ed: Our financial position allowed us to support growth as well as return capital to shareholders in 2023.
Ed: And we expect this to continue in 2024.
Speaker Change: We would now like to turn the call over to the operator for your questions.
Speaker Change: Thank you, ladies and gentlemen to ask a question you will need to press star one on your telephone and wait planning to be announced to withdraw. Your question you May Press Star one again.
Operator: To withdraw your question, you may press star 1-1 again. As a reminder, in fairness to all participants in the queue, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. And with our first question coming from the line of Thomas Gallagher from Abercorry, let us open. Good morning, guys.
Speaker Change: As a reminder, in fairness to all participants in the queue. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow up please standby, while we compile the Q&A roster.
Speaker Change: And our first question coming from the line of Thomas Gallagher from Evercore. Your line is open.
Thomas Gallagher: Good morning, guys.
Thomas Gallagher: The first question is, can you talk about this rule change and its impacts? Ed, I think I heard you say you now have negative assigned surplus, which probably has some limitations on dividend flows to the holding company. But just kind of a broader question on, practically speaking, what does this mean for you with regard to near-term capital management plans? Will it prevent you from taking dividends out for a bit from the subs, and what might this mean for cash flows and buybacks? Thanks. Good morning, Tom.
Thomas Gallagher: First question is can you talk about this rule change.
Thomas Gallagher: The impacts.
Net.
Thomas Gallagher: And I think I heard you say you now have negative assigned surplus so that.
Thomas Gallagher: Probably has some limitations on dividend flows to the holding company.
Thomas Gallagher: But just kind of a broader question on what.
Thomas Gallagher: Practically speaking what does this mean for you with regard to near term capital management plans.
Thomas Gallagher: Will it prevent you from taking dividends out for a bit out of the subs.
Thomas Gallagher: And what this might mean for cash flows and buybacks. Thanks.
Speaker Change: Good morning, Tom.
Edward A. Spehar: There are a lot of questions here, but I'll try to go in order here. So, first, you asked about unassigned funds. Number one, our capital return plans do not depend on subsidiary dividends. So you see, we have a lot of cash at the holding company. We don't need it.
Tom: There are a lot of questions in there, but I'll try to go in order here. So first you asked about unassigned funds.
Speaker Change: Number one our capital return plans do not depend on subsidiary dividends. So you see we have a lot of cash at the holding company.
Edward A. Spehar: We had strong dividends to cover holding company expenses, and blick dividends to cover holding company expenses. There are no debt maturities until 2027, so we're in a very strong position from the ability to continue our capital..." The second thing I would point out is our current financial plan, for 2024, does support us taking capital up from Brighthouse Life Insurance Company or BLEC. So this suggests that
Don't need.
Speaker Change: Dividends to cover holding company expenses uplift dividends to holding to cover holding company expenses.
Speaker Change: There are no debt maturities for until 2027, so we're in a very strong position from the ability to continue our capital plan.
Speaker Change: The second thing I would point out is our current financial plan.
Speaker Change: For 2024 does support us taking capital up from Brighthouse life insurance company or Blake.
Speaker Change: So this suggests that the negative unassigned funds is more of a technical consideration than it is a fundamental one for us.
Edward A. Spehar: The negative unassigned funds is more of a technical consideration than it is a fundamental one for us. But it's fair to say that given we have negative unassigned funds and we need regulatory approval for any dividends from BLIC in 2024, we don't think it's appropriate to provide any dollar outlook for BLIC dividends at this point. The broader question of what this means for us, I would say, you know, the summary sentence is that including all of our hedges in our financial statements today highlights the effectiveness of our strategy because you see that the total risk is reduced and the range of outcomes is narrowed. So that's specifically, you know, CTE 98 is down by $1.14 billion, and you have about $2 billion of convergence between 98 and 70. So on a broader basis, I'd say it doesn't really mean anything in terms of how we manage the risk or how we think about our cash flow. Specifically, the comments I made about hedge costs under this new requirement.
Speaker Change: But it's fair to say that given we have negative unassigned funds and we need regulatory approval for any dividends from Blake in 2024, we don't think it's appropriate to provide an eight dollar outlook for dividends at this point.
Speaker Change: The broader question of what does this mean for us I would say.
Summary sentence is that including all of our hedges in our financial statements today highlights the effectiveness of our strategy because you see that the total risk is reduced.
Speaker Change: And the range of outcomes is narrower.
Speaker Change: So that's specifically Cte 98 is down by <unk>, one $4 billion and you have about $2 billion of convergence between $98 70.
Speaker Change: So on a broader basis I'd say it.
Speaker Change: It doesn't really mean anything in terms of how we manage the risk or how we think about our cash flows.
Speaker Change: Specifically the comments I made about hedge costs under.
Speaker Change: Under this new requirement.
Edward A. Spehar: We see that there's more immediate interest rate sensitivity under this new requirement than we had previously, so we have purchased some additional rate protection. I'd say the additional rate protection that we've purchased is modest relative to the significant change we made in our interest rate positioning back in 2022. As a reminder, when interest rates went up a lot, we decided to put on a lot of protection.
We see that there is more immediate interest rate sensitivity under this new requirement than we had previously so we have purchased some additional rate protection I'd say the additional rate protection that we've purchased is modest relative to the significant change we made in our interest rate positioning back in 2022.
Speaker Change: As a reminder, when interest rates went up a lot we decided to put on a lot of protection and so I would say this change is modest relative to that the reason that hedge costs do not change.
Edward A. Spehar: And so I would say this change is modest relative to that. The reason that hedge costs do not change under this new requirement for the scenarios that we've disclosed to you for our long-term statutory free cash flows is that in the moderate scenario, we assume rates follow the forward curve. And adding additional hedges will not have any cost if rates follow the forward curve because that is factored into your hedging that you're doing today.
Speaker Change: Under this new requirement for the scenarios that we've disclosed to you for our long term statutory free cash flows is that the moderate scenario, we assume rates follow the forward curve.
Speaker Change: And adding additional hedges.
Speaker Change: We will not have any cost if rates follow the forward curve because that is factored into your hedging that youre doing today.
Edward A. Spehar: Under the normal scenario, the 20-year U.S. Treasury is mean reverting to about $4.25 in our projection model. And if you look at where forwards are for the 20-year Treasury, 10-year forward, it's like north of $4.50 right now. So again, not materially different.
Speaker Change: Yeah.
Speaker Change: Under the normal scenario, the 20 year U S. Treasury is mean reverting to about $4 25 in our.
Speaker Change: Our projection model.
Speaker Change: And if you look at where forwards are for the 20 year Treasury 10 year forward, it's like north of $4 50, right now so again not materially different.
Thomas Gallagher: And then I'd say on the adverse scenario, that has rates going to 1%, so a significant drop in interest rates, and obviously any additional interest rate hedging for an adverse scenario is a good thing. So I'm not sure if I missed anything, but I'm sure you'll follow up. No, that yeah, that's great. That was a helpful color.
Speaker Change: And then I'd say on the adverse scenario.
Speaker Change: That has rates going to 1% so a significant drop in interest rates and obviously any additional interest rate hedging for an adverse scenario is a good thing.
Speaker Change: So I'm not sure if I missed anything but I'm sure you'll follow up.
Speaker Change: Yes, that's great.
Speaker Change: Helpful color.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: And so really, it sounds like it's more a technicality from their perspective of you need approval before getting dividends out. And I see your RBC looks, So that shouldn't be a gating item, I wouldn't think, from regulators. So I guess my only follow-up is, Erik, I heard you mention long-term free cash flow is not impacted at all by this. But is intermediate-term cash flow? I'm just trying to get a sense for, I guess you mentioned, Ed, a little bit of higher interest rate hedging costs. Should we expect the next two, three years of your best guess for free cash flow to be impacted by this? And if so, could you quantify it?
Speaker Change: So.
Speaker Change: Really it sounds like it's more of a technicality from their perspective of you need approval before getting dividends out and I see your RBC looks like.
Speaker Change: Strong so that shouldnt be a gating item I wouldn't think from regulators.
So I guess my only follow up is Eric I heard you mentioned long term free cash flow is not impacted at all by this is intermediate term cash flow I'm, just trying to get a sense for I guess, you mentioned add a little bit of higher interest rate hedging costs.
Speaker Change: Should we expect the next couple of two or three years.
Speaker Change: Of your best guess for free cash flow is impacted by this and if so could you quantify it.
Thomas Gallagher: Thanks. Hey Tom, we said long term, and I'm saying intermediate is not affected either. So we don't really see any change. I liked your word technical.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: Hey, Tom.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: And we said long term and I'm, saying intermediate has not affected either.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: So we don't really see any change I like your word technical this is a technical accounting change here.
Eric Thomas Steigerwalt: This is, you know, a technical accounting change here, but we don't see any changes in cash flows, and we're not gonna change our buyback plans. We will continue to buy back stocks. Great.
Tom: But we don't see any changes in cash flows and we're not going to change our buyback plans. We will we will continue to buy back stock.
Thomas Gallagher: Thanks, guys. Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Ryan Krueger with KBW. Your line is open. Hi, thanks. Good morning.
Speaker Change: Great. Thanks, guys.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: And our next question coming from the line of Ryan Krueger with <unk>. Your line is open.
Hi, Thanks. Good morning. My first question was on the 50 basis point increase in the statutory mean reversion rate on January one.
Ryan Krueger: My first question was on the 50 basis point increase in the statutory mean reversion rate on January 1st. Can you give us an update on the sensitivity there? I guess, in particular, is it any different than it would have been prior to the change in the reflection of the hedges, or is it the same as you would have thought previously? Good morning, Ryan. It's Ed.
Ryan Krueger: Can you give us an update on the sensitivity there I guess in particular is it any different than it would have been prior to the change in the reflection of the hedges or is it the same as you would have thought previously.
Speaker Change: Good morning, Ryan It said.
Edward A. Spehar: So we will get the 50 basis points in the first quarter. We have said in the past that 25 basis points equates to $200 to $250 million of an impact. It does look like it will be different under the new statutory requirement. I think it's too early to quantify, though, how much different it will be. Okay, thanks. And then, I guess maybe just a higher level, I think.
Ryan Krueger: So we will get the 50 basis points in the first quarter. We have said in the past that 25 basis points equates to $200 million to $250 million of an impact.
Ryan Krueger: It does look like it will be different under the new statutory requirement I think it's too early to quantify though how much different it will be.
Speaker Change: Okay. Thanks.
Speaker Change: And then I guess, maybe just higher level I think.
Ryan Krueger: I think previously you would have had the option to reflect all the hedges in your statutory reserves and total asset requirements. I think some VA companies were already doing that, but I guess maybe just... Curious, kind of from a high level, it seems like it doesn't really have, other than the impact on the science surplus, it doesn't really have any negative impact.
I think previously you would've had the option to reflect all the hedges in in your statutory reserves in total asset requirement I think some companies were already doing that I guess, maybe just.
Speaker Change: Curious kind of from a high level. It seems like it doesn't really have other than the impact of unassigned surplus. It doesn't really have any negative impact I guess I'm. Just curious what was the thought process on not already doing this previously.
Edward A. Spehar: But I guess I'm just curious, kind of, what was the thought process on not already doing this previously? Sure, so let me start by saying that... You know, obviously, we can't speak for other companies, but I think there are a couple things to consider for us. The first is that, based on peer commentary and industry sources, we do have a different approach to managing the risk. I'd say first, you know, you hear us, obviously, we're focused on statutory. Secondly, we do hedge VA and SHIELD on a combined basis. And then, within that statutory framework, we have a maximum loss tolerance of up to $500 million, and that is calibrated to limit the downside to the RBC ratio. So I think all of those, in total, mean that we have somewhat of a different approach than some others. You are correct, though.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Speaker Change: Sure. So let me, let me start by saying that.
Speaker Change: Obviously, we can't speak for other companies, but I think there are a couple of things to consider for US. The first is that based on peer commentary and industry sources, we do have a different approach to managing the risk.
Speaker Change: I'd say first.
Speaker Change: So obviously, we're focused on statutory.
Speaker Change: Secondly, we do hedge VA and shield on a combined basis and then within that statutory framework, we have a max loss tolerance of up to $500 million and that is calibrated to limit the downside to the RBC ratio.
Speaker Change: So I think all of those in total mean that we have somewhat of a different approach than some other companies. You are correct, though the second thing that I'd point out is we had been using a hedge runoff calculation.
Edward A. Spehar: The second thing that I'd point out is that we had been using a hedge runoff calculation. And if we had implemented a clearly defined hedging strategy or a CDHS, the impact of the requirement would have been different. When we think about CDHS, I think it's important to sort of go through a little bit of a timeline and history here for the company. You know, since we separated from MetLife, there was a lot of stuff that we needed to accomplish, and I would say that there were two significant initiatives related to VA that I think necessitated putting consideration of a CDHS out further in the future. The first was the meaningful change we had in our risk tolerance back in late 19, early 2020 when we de-risked our VA hedging strategy. We lowered the first loss tolerance significantly from where it was and where it was initially intended to go at separation.
Speaker Change: And if we had implemented clearly defined hedging strategy or a C. DHS the impact from the requirement would have been different.
Speaker Change: When we think about CHS I think it's important to sort of go to a little bit of a timeline and history here for the company.
Speaker Change: Since we separated.
For Metlife, there was a lot of stuff that we needed to accomplish and I would say that there were two significant initiatives related to VA.
Speaker Change: I think necessitated putting consideration of a C DHS out further in the future.
Speaker Change: The first was the meaningful change we had in our risk tolerance back in late <unk> early 2020, when we derisked our.
Speaker Change: Our VA hedging strategy, we lowered that.
Speaker Change: First loss tolerance significantly from where it was and where it was initially intended to go to at separation and we also changed the nature of our hedging strategy back in <unk>.
Edward A. Spehar: And we also changed the nature of our hedging strategy back in late 19, early 2020. And as you may know, to effectively implement a CDHS, you need a sufficient performance history for that strategy to get the full benefit of the CDHS. And so when we did reset the max loss and the type of hedging we were doing, we viewed that as restarting the clock in terms of the performance history needed to get the maximum benefit for CDHS. The other thing that occurred around that time and into through the end of 2022 was the significant amount of focus we put on actuarial transformation. So moving from multiple valuation systems to one valuation environment was a very significant initiative. And you may recall that the last conversion we did was for variable annuities, which was by year end 2022. So we didn't think it made sense to go into doing a CDHS when we were in the middle of converting the VA valuation system.
Speaker Change: Late <unk> early 2020, and as you may know to effectively implement the CHS you need a sufficient performance history for that strategy to get the full benefit of the CHS and so when we did reset the Max loss and the type of hedging we were doing we viewed that as a restarting the clock.
Speaker Change: In terms of the performance history needed to get the maximum benefit for CHS.
Speaker Change: The other thing that occurred.
Speaker Change: Around that time and into through the end of 2022 was the significant amount of focus we put on actuarial transformation. So moving from multiple valuation systems to one valuation environment that was a very significant initiative and you may recall that the last conversion we did was variable annuities.
Speaker Change: Which was by year end 2022, so we didn't think it made sense they'd go into doing a CHS. When we were in the middle of converting the VA evaluation system and then obviously we're into 2023 and we have this new requirement so implementing.
Edward A. Spehar: And then obviously, you know, we're into 2023, and we have this new requirement. So, you know, implementing a CDHS was sort of not even an option because we knew we were going into this new, this new revision to VM21. I know that's a long answer to the question, but I think it is important to understand, you know, maybe how we're a little different in terms of how we manage risk and also everything that we've been doing for the last several years since our separation. Thank you. No, that's really helpful.
Speaker Change: Implementing a C DHS was sort of not even an option because we knew we were going into this new.
Speaker Change: This new revision to VM 21.
Speaker Change: I know Thats, a long answer to the question, but I think it is important to understand.
Speaker Change: How were a little different in terms of how we manage the risk and also everything that we've been doing for the last several years since separation.
Ryan Krueger: I appreciate it. Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of John Barnidge with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.
Speaker Change: Thank you no that's really helpful. Appreciate it.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: Our next question coming from the line of John Barnidge with Piper Sandler Your line is open.
John Bakewell Barnidge: Good morning. Thank you. Appreciate the opportunity. Previously, you talked about your outlook for surrender activity being a bit above what the prior run rate was. Given where the rate environment has gone, with the visibility of another year's experience, how should we be thinking about surrender activity, given your outlook for sales volume? Thank you. Sure. Thanks. Thanks, John. So I'll start.
John Bakewell Barnidge: Good morning, Thank you I appreciate the opportunity.
John Bakewell Barnidge: So you talked about your outlook for surrender activity being a bit above what the prior run rate was.
John Bakewell Barnidge: Given where the rate environment has gone with the visibility of another year of experience how should we be thinking about surrender activity given your outlook for sales volume. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Sure. Thanks, Thanks, John So I'll start.
Edward A. Spehar: You know, as you said, and as we've said on previous earnings calls, given the blocks of business that came out of the surrender charge period in 2023, coupled with the higher rates, we did expect higher outflows in 2023, and we saw that, and that was consistent with pricing assumptions. So, when we think about the outflows, they are weighted to VA, but given the mix of business that we've sold over the last several years as Brighthouse, coupled with the higher rates, the contribution of outflows from SHIELD and fixed annuities in certain years is growing, but again, in line with pricing assumptions. So, you know, maybe just for some context, so what changed in 2023 relative to 2022? So, the overall dollar amount of contract holders using their benefits, so partial withdrawals, annuitizations, death benefits, that was about the same amount that was used in 2022. But what changed was the level of full withdrawals increased, again because of the blocks of business coming out of surrender, as well as the higher rates.
Speaker Change: As you said as we've said on previous earnings calls.
Speaker Change: Given the blocks of business that came out of the surrender charge period in 2023, coupled with the higher rates. We did expect higher outflows in 2023, and we saw that and that was consistent with with pricing assumptions. So.
Speaker Change: When we think about the outflows they are weighted to VA, but given the mix of business that we sold.
Speaker Change: Over the last several years as Brighthouse cut.
Speaker Change: Coupled with the higher rates the contribution of outflows from shield and fixed annuities in certain years is growing but again in line with with pricing assumptions. So.
Speaker Change: Maybe just for some context so.
Speaker Change: What changed in 2023 relative to 2022.
Speaker Change: So the overall dollar amount of contract holders using their benefits. So part partial withdrawals annuity <unk> death benefit that was about the same that was it was.
Speaker Change: Used in 2022.
Speaker Change: But what changed with the level of full withdrawals increased again because of the blocks of business coming out of surrender as well as the higher rate.
Edward A. Spehar: So, that was all consistent with pricing assumptions. So, when we look forward to 2024, I would say that kind of the same holds.
Speaker Change: So that was all consistent with pricing assumption. So when we look forward to 2024.
Speaker Change: I would say that.
Edward A. Spehar: The blocks of business coming out of the surrender charge period and the higher rates, even though they've come back a little bit, if you think about rates over the last handful of years, still higher than at that point in time. We expect a similar level of outflows to what we experienced in 2023 to recur in 2024, but the mix will be a little different based on the blocks of business coming out of the surrender charge period. That's very helpful. Thank you very much. You normally put out your distributable earnings scenarios in March, but you put it out in September last year because of LBTI. Are you anticipating to go back to that normal cadence? Hey, John, it's Ed.
Speaker Change: Kind of the same holds the blocks of business coming out of surrender charge period, and the higher rates, even though they have come back a little bit as you think about rates over the last handful of years still still higher than that point in time.
Speaker Change: We expect a similar level of outflows to what we experienced in 2023 to recur in 2024, but the mix will be a little different based on the blocks of business coming out of the surrender charge period.
That's very helpful. Thank you very much.
Speaker Change: You normally put out or distributable earnings scenarios.
Speaker Change: March and put it out in September last year, because of <unk> are you anticipating to go back to that normal cadence.
Ed: Hey, John It's Ed.
So we do plan on publishing the long term statutory free cash flows we don't have.
Edward A. Spehar: So we do plan on publishing the long-term statutory free cash flows. We don't have a specific timeline at this point, but we will keep you up to date when we get closer to when we think we'll do it. Thank you. I appreciate the answer. Thank you. And as a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star 1 1. And our next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Ed: A specific timeline at this point, but we will keep you up to date, when we get closer to when we think we'll do it.
Ed: Okay.
Speaker Change: Appreciate the answers.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: And as a reminder, ladies and gentlemen to ask a question. Please press star one.
Speaker Change: And our next question coming from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Elyse Greenspan: Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question, you know, the kind of normalized EPS, and if we adjust for alternative assets, went down a little bit in the quarter, and I know, Ed, you alluded to higher Q4 corporate costs. So, as we think about kind of run rate earnings, when you put it, you know, kind of back into the range of something, you know, in the range of $4, assuming normal alternative assets. And then, with that being said, can you just give us a sense of just expectations for VII, you know, for the Q1, and any thoughts for 2024 as well? Sure, hi, Elyse.
Elyse Greenspan: Hi, Thanks, Good morning, My first question.
Elyse Greenspan: The kind of normalized EPS and if we adjust for all went down a little bit in the quarter and I know Ed.
Elyse Greenspan: Alluded to higher Q4 corporate costs. So as we think about kind of run rate earnings when you kind of back into the range or something.
Elyse Greenspan: In the range of $4, assuming normal and then with that being said can you just give us a sense of just expectations for VII.
Elyse Greenspan: The Q1 and any thoughts for 2024 as well.
Speaker Change: Sure Hi, Elyse.
Speaker Change: So you are correct you are still going to get to a run rate type of number that's in the $4 range and.
Edward A. Spehar: So you're correct. You're still going to get to a run rate type of number that's in the $4 range, and if you start with 292X, the notable number.
Speaker Change: You start with the 292 ex the notable.
Edward A. Spehar: If you adjust for the VII, or alts, that's 95 cents a share off of normal, approximately. And then the normal kind of corporate expense run rate because the fourth quarter is, as you can see from our results, historically, the fourth quarter is typically high relative to the average quarter. And that's probably in the neighborhood of 20 cents a share or something. So, you know, you're going to get to that $4, $4 plus type of number as a normal quarter. And in terms of alts, I'm going to pass that over to John. Yeah, hi, Elyse.
Speaker Change: You adjust for the VIII our ops that's.
Speaker Change: Thats 95, a share off of normal approximately and then the normal kind of corporate expense run rate because the fourth quarter is as you can see from our results historically the fourth quarter is typically high relative to the average quarter and thats probably in the neighborhood of <unk>.
Speaker Change: <unk> <unk> a share or something.
Speaker Change: So youre going to get to that four $4 plus type of number as a normal quarter.
Speaker Change: And in terms of all it's I'm going to pass that over to John.
John: Yes, Hi, Elyse I think as we suggested in the past, we really don't want to get into the business of predicting near term ultra returns.
John L. Rosenthal: I think, as we've suggested in the past, we really don't want to get into the business of predicting the near term. So we'll just have to wait and see. And as a reminder, we invest in alternatives, which for us is essentially all private equity for the long term. And the asset class is a good fit for our long-term liabilities. We continue to expect to earn 9% to 11% over the life of these assets. Recognizing there will be short-term volatility in the interim, and we use that midpoint of the 9-11% for planning purposes.
John: So we will just have to wait and see and as a reminder, we invested in alternatives, which for US is essentially all private equity for the long term and the asset class is a good fit for our long term liabilities, we continue to expect to earn 9% to 11% over the life of these assets rec.
John: Recognizing there will be short term volatility in the interim and we use that midpoint of the 911% for planning purposes.
Thanks.
Speaker Change: And then my my second question.
John L. Rosenthal: And then my second question, you know, going back to some of the capital discussion and recognizing you guys have a good amount of capital to hold, but with that being said, I mean, Ed, did you guys buy back 60 million in the fourth quarter and 30 million year to date? Does it feel like that's kind of the cadence we should think about from a buyback perspective? Hey, Elyse.
Speaker Change: Going back to some of the capital discussion.
Speaker Change: And recognizing you guys have a good amount of capital at the Holdco, but with that being said I mean does the you guys bought back.
Speaker Change: 60 million in the fourth quarter and $30 million year to date does it feel like that's kind of the cadence we should think about from a buyback perspective.
Elyse Greenspan: Hey, Elyse so.
Elyse Greenspan: We have we made a decision a while back that we're not going to give a forward look on pace of repurchase.
Edward A. Spehar: So, you know, we made a decision a while back that we're not going to give a forward look on the pace of repurchase. I think you heard Erik and I both said that buybacks are something that you should expect to continue this year. You can look at our history and what we've done in terms of amount and timing, and you, I would just say you can base it off of that. One of the things that we have said. I guess, starting back in late 22 was that we were a little more cautious about the environment. We haven't had a credit cycle in a long time. Obviously, this year or last year was a good year.
Elyse Greenspan: I think you heard Eric and I, both said that buybacks are something that you should expect to continue this year you can look at our history.
Elyse Greenspan: And what we've done in terms of amount and timing and.
Elyse Greenspan: No.
Speaker Change: I would just say you can base it off of that one of the things that we have said.
Speaker Change: Starting back in.
Speaker Change: Late 'twenty two was that we.
Speaker Change: We were a little more cautious on the environment.
Speaker Change: Havent had a credit cycle in a long time, obviously this year or last year was it was a good year there was.
Edward A. Spehar: There was a market that was strong, but we do think it's been a long time since a credit cycle, and it makes sense to be a little bit prudent about that. Thanks. Thank you. And our next question coming from the lineup is from Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Hi, good morning.
Speaker Change: Market.
Speaker Change: Strong.
Speaker Change: But we do think it's been a long time since credit cycle and it makes sense to be a little bit prudent about that.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: And our next question coming from the line of Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Alex Scott: Hey, good morning.
Alex Scott: The first one I have for you is going back to the CTE 98 level, and it being lower. I just wanted to get a feel for how it changes the emergence of CTE over time. I think, If we go back far enough, you guys used to give us an indication of when the CTE requirement would peak in different scenarios, and, you know, obviously not providing that level of detail, but I was hoping maybe you could give us an indication of, you know, how far away at this point we are from that, and whether this accounting change is affected at all.
Alex Scott: First one I have is going back to the Cte 98 level.
Alex Scott: Lower I just wanted to get a feel for how it changes the emergence of Cte overtime I think.
Alex Scott: If we go back far enough you guys used to give us an indication of when the Cte requirement would peak in different scenarios.
Alex Scott: Obviously, we're not providing that level of detail, but was hoping maybe you could give us an indication of.
Alex Scott: How far away at this point already from that and did this accounting change.
Affected at all.
Edward A. Spehar: Hey Alex, our initial view is that it's not going to change that much, that the sort of timing of that would be similar to what it was prior to this new requirement. Got it. Okay. The second one I have for you is on normalized statutory earnings. You know, it was weaker this year, a little negative, and I think that included one-time benefits from both the mean reversion and point change, and it sounded like some AAT release, some 4Qs. You know, the run rate there seems pretty low.
Alex Scott: Hey, Alex So our initial view is that it's not going to change that.
Alex Scott: That much that the sort of the timing of that would be similar to what it was prior to this new requirement.
Alex Scott: Got it okay.
Alex Scott: The second one I have is on the normalized statutory earnings.
Speaker Change: Yes, we do.
Speaker Change: This year, a little negative and I think that included one time benefits from both the mean reversion point change.
Speaker Change: And it sounded like some.
Speaker Change: And these <unk> so.
Speaker Change: The run rate there it seems pretty low.
Alex Scott: Any help you can give us in thinking through how that will unfold over the next year or two, or any kind of way to maybe further normalize it? I know it's an already normalized number, but any help in just thinking where we are in terms of the statutory earnings power of the economy? So, Alex, I don't think I can give you any help on a one-year view, and the reason for that is that there is still a fair amount of volatility. So, you know, you're correct. We had an approximately $200 million loss in 2023. If you look at 2022, we had a billion dollars of normal stat earnings.
Speaker Change: Any help you can give us in thinking through how that works.
Speaker Change: It will unfold over over the next year or two or any.
Speaker Change: Any kind of way to maybe further nor I know isn't already normalized number but any help on just thinking where we are in terms of the SaaS carry earnings power of the company.
Speaker Change: Yeah.
Speaker Change: So Alex I don't think I can give you any help on a one year view.
Speaker Change: And.
Speaker Change: The reason for that is that there is still a fair amount of volatility.
Speaker Change: No.
You are correct, we the approximately $200 million loss in 2023, if you look at 2022, we had $1 billion of norm Stat earnings.
Edward A. Spehar: You know, if you look at the range of Normstadt earnings over the last five years or so, it's been pretty wide. Now, obviously, we think that over time, we're gonna have more predictable cash flows and more predictable earnings. But at this point, it's still, you know, it's still been pretty volatile. And I don't think even as you look at our cash flows that we talked about, where we see convergence between the scenarios. We're not talking about any single year of an outlook. If you go back over the years since 2018, our Normstadt earnings have averaged slightly less than four hundred million dollars a year.
Speaker Change: Yeah.
Speaker Change: If you look at the range of norm Stat earnings over the last.
Five years or so it's been pretty wide now obviously, we think that over time, we're going to have a more predictable cash flows more predictable earnings but at this point it's still.
Speaker Change: It's still been pretty volatile and I don't think even as you look at our cash flows that we talked about where we see them.
Speaker Change: Convergence between the scenarios.
Speaker Change: We're not talking about any single year of of an outlook. If you go back over the since 2018, our norm stat earnings as average slightly less than $400 million, a year and our net cash flow to the holding company has averaged like $335 million a year.
Edward A. Spehar: And our net cash flow to the holding company is averaged around three hundred and thirty five. Got it. So is that, is that a rough way to think about recovering this negative unassigned funds and how long it can take to rebuild? I mean, that's what I'm trying to get at, is just trying to understand the period of time it could take to have that go away.
Speaker Change: Got it.
Speaker Change: Is that.
Speaker Change: Is that a rough way to think about recovering the negative unassigned funds and how long it could take to rebuild.
That's what I'm trying to get at is just trying to understand is the period of time it could take.
Speaker Change: How does that go away.
Edward A. Spehar: Yeah, so our ability to predict what's going to happen to unassigned funds is very difficult because you will see a lot of movement in CTE70 versus CTE98, depending on the market environment. And obviously, CT70 is driving TAC, and that's going to have an impact because it's driving reserves, and that's going to impact TAC, and that's driving the movement in unassigned funds. So I would just go back to what I said, I think, in response to Tom's question, which is, when we look at our capital plan or expectation, what we could support over time. Our financial plan would suggest that we should be able to take capital up from Blick in 2024. Now, obviously, with negative unassigned funds, we would need to have regulatory approval to do that.
Speaker Change: Yes, so the.
Speaker Change: Our ability to predict what's going to happen to an assigned funds very difficult because you will see a lot of movement in.
Speaker Change: Cte 70 versus Cte 98, depending on the market environment.
And obviously <unk> 70 is driving Tac and thats going to have the.
Speaker Change: The impact.
Speaker Change: And because it's driving reserves and thats going to impact tack and that's driving the movement in unassigned funds. So I would just go back to what I said.
Speaker Change: In response to Tom's question, which is when we look at our <unk>.
Speaker Change: Capital plan, our expectation, what we could support over time.
Speaker Change: Our financial plan, which suggests that we should be able to take.
Speaker Change: Capital up from Blake in 2024 now.
Speaker Change: Now, obviously with negative unassigned funds, we would need to have regulatory approval to do that.
Edward A. Spehar: But, as you can imagine, when we think about our financial position, we're looking at our risk-based capital ratio, and you see where it was at the end of the year, and, you know, we have an expectation that would suggest that we should be able to support taking capital up in 2024. Thank you. Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Suneet Kamath with Jeffrey C. Alanisopan. Thanks.
Speaker Change: But as you can imagine when we think about our financial position, we're looking at our.
Speaker Change: Our risk based capital ratio and you see where it was at the end of the year and we have an expectation that would suggest that.
Speaker Change: We should be able to support taking capital up in 2024.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: Thank you and our next question coming from the line of Sunil Kumar with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Suneet Kamath: So I just want to go back to the September distributable earnings deck that you guys put out. If we looked at kind of the longer, longer term, sort of years six through 10, in that scenario, it would seem to have implied sort of a step up in distributable earnings. So I'm just wondering, does any of that change as a result of this in any kind of material way?
Sunil Kumar: Thanks, Good morning.
Sunil Kumar: I just wanted to go back to the September distributable earnings deck that you guys put out if we looked at kind of the.
Longer longer term sort of years six through 10 in that scenario. It would seem to have imply sort of a step up in.
Sunil Kumar: Distributable earnings.
Sunil Kumar: So I'm just wondering does any of that change as a result of this and any kind of materially.
Edward A. Spehar: And what I mean by this is obviously the accounting. Yeah, hey, Suneet, I would not think the pattern is going to change that much based on this new requirement. Okay, got it. And then I guess we've been talking a lot about Blick and Nelco, but we haven't really talked about your captive reinsurance subsidiary. Does that come into play at all in terms of a source of holdco cash?
Sunil Kumar: Mean by this is obviously the accounting change.
Speaker Change: Yeah, Hey, Nate I would not think that pattern is going to change that much.
Speaker Change: Based on this new requirement.
Nate: Okay got it and then I guess.
Been talking a lot about Blake and nalco, but we haven't really talked about your.
Nate: Captive reinsurance subsidiary does that come into play at all in terms of a source of Holdco cash.
Suneet Kamath: So you're talking about Brighthouse Reinsurance Company of Delaware, BRCD. That's right. Correct. Right. So I would just repeat what I've said in the past, which is we do not view BRCD as a source of ongoing capital for the holding company or for Blick or for the holding company. As you know, we took two $600 million dividends out of BRCD, so $1.2 billion. We think that brings the capitalization of that entity to a level that is appropriate, and it's a run-off business. It's our life risk; a life risk with a lot of the concentration of the ULSG risk is in that entity. So I would not view that entity as an ongoing source of capital to BRCD, to the holding company, to Blick, or to the holding company.
Nate: So you are talking about Brighthouse reinsurance company of Delaware BRC day threat correct. So.
Nate: I would just repeat what I've said in the past, which is we do not view BRC D. As a source of ongoing capital to the holding company.
Nate: Or to Blake.
Nate: Or the holding company.
Nate: As you know, we took to $600 million dividends at a b or C. D. So $1 $2 billion, we think that brought the capitalization of that entity to a level that is appropriate.
Nate: And it's a run off its a run off business. It's our it's our life risks life risk with a lot of.
Nate: The concentration of the.
Nate: The U S. G risk is in that entity, so I would not view that entity as an ongoing source of capital to.
To the holding company.
Nate: Black or to the holding company.
Edward A. Spehar: Okay, thanks. And then maybe if I could just sneak one more in, just in terms of your new sales and the strain associated with that, I think, Ed, in the past, you talked about maybe five points of RBC. Is that still kind of where we are in terms of the new business and the plan for 24? I think that's still a reasonable expectation.
Speaker Change: Okay. Thanks, and then maybe if I could just sneak one more in just in terms of your new sales and the strain associated with that I think Ed in the past you talked about maybe five points of RBC is that still kind of where we are in terms of the new business and the plan for 2004.
Ed: I think thats still a reasonable expectation.
Speaker Change: Okay. Thanks.
Suneet Kamath: Okay, thanks. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I'm showing no further questions in the queue at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Dana Amante for closing remarks. Thank you, Livia. Thank you, everyone, for joining our call this morning. Have a great day. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: I'm showing no further questions in the queue at this time I will now turn the call back over to Dana for closing remarks.
Thank you Olivia and thank you everyone for joining our call. This morning have a great day.
Speaker Change: Ladies and gentlemen that does mean our conference for today. Thank you for your participation you may now disconnect.
Speaker Change: Okay.
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