Q4 2023 Cameco Corp Earnings Call
Operator: Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Cameco Corporation fourth quarter 2023 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. Following the introductory remarks, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To join the question queue, you may press star then 1 on your telephone keypad.
Thank you for standing by this is the conference operator.
Speaker Change: Come to the Cameco Corporation fourth quarter 2023 results conference call.
Speaker Change: As a reminder, all participants are in listen only mode and the conference is being recorded.
Speaker Change: The introductory remarks, there will be an opportunity to ask questions and join the question queue. You May Press Star then one on your telephone keypad.
Operator: Should you need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star then 0. Webcast participants are asked to wait until the Q&A session before submitting their questions, as the information they are looking for may be provided during the presentation. The Q&A session will conclude at 9 a.m. Eastern time. I would now like to turn the conference over to Rochelle Girard, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Speaker Change: Should you need assistance during the conference call you may should learn an operator by pressing star zero.
Speaker Change: Jess participants are asked to wait until the Q&A session before submitting their questions as information here looking for may be provided during the presentation.
Speaker Change: The Q&A session will conclude at nine a M eastern time.
Speaker Change: I would now like to turn the conference over to Michelle Girard, Vice President Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Rochelle Girard: Thank you, Operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Cameco's fourth-quarter conference call. I would like to acknowledge that we are speaking from our corporate office, which is in Treaty 6 territory, the traditional territory of Cree peoples and the homeland of the Métis. With us today are Tim Gitzel, our President and CEO, Grant Isaac, our Executive VP and CFO, Heidi Shockey, Senior VP and Deputy CFO, Brian Riley, Senior VP and Chief Operating Officer, Sean Quinn, Senior VP, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary, Alice Wong, Senior VP and Chief Corporate Officer, and Dominic Kieran, Global Managing Director of Cameco UK Ltd.
Michelle Girard: Thank you operator, and good morning, everyone welcome to chemicals fourth quarter conference call I would like to acknowledge that we were speaking from our corporate office, which is on treaty six territory. The traditional territory of Cree people and homeland at the May team with US today are Tim <unk>, our president and CEO.
Michelle Girard: Grant Isaac our executive VP, and CFO, Heidi Sharkey senior VP and Deputy CFO, Brian Reilly Senior VP, and Chief operating Officer, Sean Quinn Senior VP, Chief Legal officer, and corporate Secretary, Alice Wong Senior VP, and Chief Corporate Officer, and Dominic Kieran globally.
Michelle Girard: <unk> director of chemical UK limited.
Rochelle Girard: I'm going to hand it over to Tim in just a moment to briefly discuss the current nuclear market environment, our 2023 performance, and how it provides the basis for Cameco's plans and outlook for 2024. Then, we will open it up for your questions. Today's call will be approximately one hour long, concluding at 9 a.m. Eastern Time.
Michelle Girard: I'm going to hand, it over to Tim in just a moment to briefly discuss the current nuclear market environment, Our 2023 performance.
Michelle Girard: And how it provides a basis for chemicals plans and outlook for 2024.
Tim: After we will open it up for your questions.
Today's call will be approximately one hour concluding at nine a M eastern time.
Rochelle Girard: As always, our goal is to be open and transparent with our communication. However, we do want to respect everyone's time and conclude the call on time. Therefore, should we not have time for your questions during the call, or if you have detailed questions about our quarterly financial results, we will be happy to follow up with you after the call. There are a few ways to contact us with additional questions. You can reach out to the contacts provided in our news release. You can submit a question through the contact tab on our website, or you can use the ask a question form at the bottom of the webcast screen, and we will be happy to follow up after this call.
Tim: As always our goal is to be open and transparent with our communication. However, we do want to respect everyones time and conclude the call on time, therefore should we not have time for your questions. During the call or if you have detailed questions about our quarterly financial results, we will be happy to follow up with you after the call.
Tim: There are a few ways to contact us with additional questions you can reach out to the contacts provided in our news release you can submit a question through the contact tab on our website or you can use the ask a question form at the bottom of the webcast screen and we will be happy to follow up after this call.
Rochelle Girard: If you join the conference call through our website event page, there are slides available which will be displayed during the call. In addition, for your reference, our quarterly investor handout is available as a PDF file on our website at Cameco.com. Today's conference call is open to all members of the investment community, including the media. During the Q&A session, please limit yourself to two questions and then return to the queue.
Tim: If you joined the conference call through our website event page there are slides available which will be displayed during the call.
Tim: In addition for your reference our quarterly Investor Handout is available for download in a PDF file on our website at cameco Dot com.
Tim: Today's conference call is open to all members of the investment community, including the media.
Tim: During the Q&A session. Please limit yourself to two questions and then return to the queue.
Rochelle Girard: Please note that this conference call will include forward-looking information, which is based on a number of assumptions, and actual results could differ materially. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements, and we do not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements we make today, except as required by law. Please refer to our most recent annual information form and MD&A for more information about the factors that could cause these different results and the assumptions we have made. With that, I will turn it over to Tim. Well, thank you, Rochelle. And good morning, everyone.
Tim: Please note. This conference call will include forward looking information, which is based on a number of assumptions and actual results could differ materially.
Tim: You should not place undue reliance on forward looking statements actual results may differ materially from these forward looking statements and we do not undertake any obligation to update any forward looking statements. We make today, except as required by law. Please refer to our most recent annual information form and MD&A for more information about the factor.
Tim: That could cause these different results and the assumptions, we have made with that I will turn it over to Tim.
Tim: Well, thank you Michelle and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for today's call and belated happy new year.
Tim Gitzel: We appreciate you joining us for today's call and a belated Happy New Year. Our fourth quarter conference calls always provide a great opportunity to discuss the past year's developments in the uranium and nuclear fuel market. It's also a good time to touch on a few annual highlights that demonstrate how well our strategy is performing and to provide some insights into our current expectations for the year ahead. So that's the outline I'll follow today. This past year, we've been consistently talking about positive market momentum. So I think I can be fairly brief on that side.
Our fourth quarter conference calls always provide a great opportunity to discuss the past year's developments in the uranium nuclear fuel markets.
Tim: It's also a good time to touch on a few annual highlights that demonstrate how well our strategy is performing.
Tim: And to provide some insights into our current expectations for the year ahead.
Speaker Change: So that's the outline all follow today.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Speaker Change: This past year, we've been consistently talking about the positive market momentum.
Speaker Change: So I think I can be fairly brief on that side of things.
Tim Gitzel: We spent a great deal of time on our calls, in our presentations, and on our webcasts talking about our optimism and positive view of the constructive market conditions we've seen throughout 2023. And we are absolutely maintaining that enthusiasm moving into 2024. Those listening today that tuned in for a few of our calls and presentations prior to 2020 would be very familiar with the phrase positive long-term fundamentals. I say tongue-in-cheek that we use that message more than just a few times to reinforce our optimism through the lowest points of the market cycle. Back when we initially made that statement, we certainly couldn't forecast the timing of a market transition.
Speaker Change: We spent a great deal of time on our calls in our presentations in our webcast is talking about our optimism.
Speaker Change: Positive view of the constructive market conditions, we've seen throughout 2023.
Speaker Change: And we are absolutely maintaining that enthusiasm moving into 2024.
Speaker Change: Those listening today that tuned in for a few of our calls and presentations prior to 2020 would be very familiar with the phrase positive long term fundamentals.
Speaker Change: I would say somewhat tongue in cheek that we use that and message more than just a few times to reinforce our optimism through the lowest points of the market cycle.
Speaker Change: Back when we initially made that statement, we certainly couldnt forecast the timing of a market transition.
Tim Gitzel: But we remain convinced that once the excess, uncommitted primary supply and mobile inventories cleared the market and as demand continued to grow, our industry would recover, and our company would be stronger than ever. So now, as we watch the uranium contracting cycle shift closer to a replacement rate level, I can say with confidence that we have entered the early part of that long-term window we've been talking about. And those fundamentals we were referring to? They are even more positive than we had anticipated. On the demand side, we use the term durable at every opportunity as we believe it accurately describes and effectively differentiates today's fundamental demand picture from previous cycles. The previous peaks in our market typically lasted for weeks. However, the valleys have lasted for years.
Speaker Change: But we remain convinced that once the excess uncommitted primary supply and mobile inventories cleared the market and as demand continued to grow our industry would recover and our company would be stronger than ever.
Speaker Change: So now as we watch the uranium contracting cycle shift closer to a replacement rate level I can say with confidence that we have entered the early part of that long term window, we'd been talking about.
Speaker Change: And those fundamentals, we were referring to there even more positive than we had anticipated.
Speaker Change: On the demand side, we use the term durable at every opportunity as we believe it accurately describes in effectively differentiates today's fundamental demand picture from previous cycles.
Speaker Change: The previous peaks in our market have typically lasted for weeks.
Speaker Change: While the values have lasted for years.
Tim Gitzel: That was the case when the excitement about uranium and nuclear power was driven by one or two discrete events, mineshaft failure, the end of the megatons to megawatts program, the Flooded Mine in Development, and Chinese contracting that absorbed significant supply. Those types of events all added speculative, shorter-term, momentary pressure to supply and demand.
Speaker Change: That was the case when the excitement about uranium of nuclear was driven by one or two discrete events.
Speaker Change: Our mine shaft failure, the end of the megatons to megawatts program.
Speaker Change: Flooded mine development.
Speaker Change: Chinese contracting that absorbed significant supply.
Speaker Change: Those types of events all added speculative shorter term momentary pressure to supply and demand.
Tim Gitzel: However, in today's environment, the uranium market is certainly experiencing more than just a moment. Instead, we're seeing full-cycle growth in the near, mid, and long terms, with broad interest in nuclear energy like never before. And it's being driven by global-scale factors that are widely expected to persist for years to come. Geopolitical tension is prompting governments all over the world to re-evaluate energy security and enact policies to reduce risk and eliminate reliance on unstable jurisdictions.
Speaker Change: However in today's environment, the uranium market is certainly having more than just a moment.
Speaker Change: Instead, we're seeing full cycle growth in the near mid and long term with broad interest in nuclear energy like never before.
Speaker Change: And it's being driven by global scale factors that are widely expected to persist for years to come.
Speaker Change: Geopolitical tension is prompting governments all over the world to reevaluate energy security and enact policies to reduce risk and eliminate reliance on unstable jurisdictions.
Tim Gitzel: And as they do so, climate change and electron accountability remain top of mind, which truly puts nuclear energy in the spotlight. There is a growing consensus that there is no net zero without nuclear energy, and 28 countries have now signed on to an international declaration that calls for a tripling of nuclear energy capacity by 2050. The EU, US, UK, Canada, France, and Japan are just some of the jurisdictions where bipartisan support is translating to political action, with a few already introducing financial incentives to back nuclear development.
Speaker Change: And as they do so climate change and electron accountability remain top of mind, which truly puts nuclear in the spotlight.
Speaker Change: There's a growing consensus that there is no net zero without nuclear in 28 countries have now signed on to an international declaration that calls for a tripling of nuclear energy capacity by 2050.
Speaker Change: The EU U S U K, Canada, France, and Japan are just some of the jurisdictions, where bipartisan support is translating to political action with a few already introducing financial incentives tabak nuclear development.
Tim Gitzel: As a result of this support, we are seeing life extensions, reactor refurbishments, and a call for new builds to provide secure, reliable, and clean baseload power. And we have technological evolution on the horizon as well, with SMRs and advanced reactors extending the use case for nuclear beyond just electricity, further strengthening the outlook for growing demand. The demand is durable and growing with more support than ever. So how does that stack up against the supply-side funding? Well, that's where significant uncertainty remains. The geopolitical tensions that are pushing the re-evaluation of energy security are also adding negative pressure to supply.
Speaker Change: As a result of this support we are seeing life extensions reactor refurbishments and the call for new builds to provide secure reliable and clean baseload power.
Speaker Change: And we have a technological evolution on the horizon as well with <unk> in advanced reactors extending the use case for nuclear beyond just electricity further strengthening the outlook for growing demand.
Speaker Change: So demand, it's durable and growing with more support than ever.
Speaker Change: So how does that stack up against the supply side fundamentals.
Speaker Change: Well, that's where significant uncertainty remains.
Speaker Change: The geopolitical tensions that are pushing the reevaluation of energy security.
Speaker Change: We're also adding negative pressure to supply.
Tim Gitzel: The resulting impact on mining activity, fuel cycle services, supply chains, and global transportation continues to create significant challenges. Last week, we saw a tangible impact on supply resulting from those challenges when our Kazakh partner, KazAtomProm, revised their expected 2024 production volumes down in response to limited access to acid and development delays. We're now working with Kazatomprom to determine the impact on our share of 2024 production from the J.V. Supply chain challenges combined with ongoing mine depletion, declining and finite secondary supplies, and a decade of underinvestment in exploration and mine capacity amid low market prices have led to what is a very tight market today, something that is expected to persist into the next decade. So considering both demand and supply, I think we can safely reiterate that strong long-term fundamentals are still a message that continues to resonate, creating the full cycle growth we've been talking about.
Speaker Change: The resulting impact on mining activity fuel cycle services supply chains in global transportation continues to create significant challenges.
Speaker Change: Last week, we saw tangible impact on supply, resulting from those challenges when our Kazakh partner because Adam from revised their expected 2020 for production volumes down in response to limited access to asset and development delays.
Speaker Change: We're now working with Kazatomprom to determine the impact on our share of 2024 production from JV income.
Speaker Change: Fly chain challenges combined with ongoing mine depletion.
Speaker Change: Declining in finite secondary supplies in the decade of Underinvestment in exploration and mine capacity amid low market prices has led to what is a very tight market today something that is expected to persist into the next decade.
Speaker Change: So considering both demand and supply I think we can safely reiterate that strong long term fundamentals is still a message that continues to resonate creating the full cycle growth we've been talking about.
Tim Gitzel: Looking back at the very difficult supply discipline decisions we had to make and the strategy we put in place in the context of that persistent positive long-term view, I can now say it was all to prepare us for today's market and for the second half of this decade and beyond. We at Cameco have maintained a disciplined approach to managing the financial, contracting, and operational facets of our strategy during those tough times.
Speaker Change: Looking back at the very difficult supply disciplined decisions, we had to make him. The strategy we put in place in the context of that persistent positive long term view.
Speaker Change: I can now say it was all to prepare us for today's market.
Speaker Change: And for the second half of this decade and beyond.
Speaker Change: We at Cameco have maintained a disciplined approach to managing the financial contracting and operational fastest of our strategy during those tough times.
Tim Gitzel: We did what we said we were going to do, which positioned us well to capture full-cycle demand with a supply pipeline that was only going to respond to real end-user demand as it evolved. Considering customer fuel requirements into the future, we knew that the focus had to return to the long-term market because, as always, the total volume of requirements is far greater than what is available in the near-term spot market. It evolved quickly, just as we predicted it would.
Speaker Change: We did what we said we're going to do.
Speaker Change: Which position us well to capture full cycle demand with the supply pipeline that was only going to respond to real end user demand as it evolved.
Speaker Change: And considering customer fuel requirements into the future we knew that the focus had to return to the long term market.
Speaker Change: As always the total volume of requirements is far greater than what is available in the near term spot market.
Speaker Change: Did evolve quickly just as we predicted it would and our patients and our experience are paying off with positive results.
Tim Gitzel: And our patients and our experience are paying off with positive results. We saw a significant improvement in our financial performance metrics in 2023 thanks to higher sales volumes and higher realized prices in our uranium and fuel services segment. This drove improved net earnings, adjusted net earnings, and cash from operations, which all more than doubled in 2023 compared to the year before, with a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA. And our continued discipline and our tried and tested long-term contracting strategy help to mitigate risks related to our capital decisions and mining plans. Our strategy is designed to allow us to align production decisions with our customer needs and the commitments in our contract portfolio and ensures we don't add excess supply and capacity when there's no demand in the market. We understand that to generate full cycle value, we can't be mining on spec.
Speaker Change: We saw a significant improvement in our financial performance metrics in 2023, thanks to higher sales volumes and higher realized prices in our uranium and fuel services segments.
Speaker Change: This drove improved net earnings adjusted net earnings and cash from operations, which all more than doubled in 2023 compared to the year before and with a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA.
Speaker Change: And our continued disciplined and our tried and tested long term contracting strategy helped to mitigate risks related to our capital decisions and mining plans.
Speaker Change: Our strategy is designed to allow us to align production decisions with our customer needs and the commitments in our contract portfolio and ensures we don't add excess supply and capacity when there's no demand in the market.
Speaker Change: We understand that to generate full cycle value, we can't be mining on spec.
Tim Gitzel: We must build a home for our pounds years ahead of time before we pull them out of the ground in order to avoid having to sell material into a thinly traded and discretionary spot market. That means in today's contracting cycle, we can link the pounds that we have previously left in the ground to the long-term contractual commitments that are being negotiated today. And those contracts are being executed in the context of a significantly improved market environment, generating value for Cameco as we deliver into them now and in the years to come. We ended 2023 with a healthy contract book and total long-term commitments of 205 million pounds of uranium with 37 customers worldwide. That total commitment level of over 200 million pounds only represents about 20% of our current reserve and resource base, providing us with plenty of exposure to improving demand from our customers as they look to secure their long-term needs. To deliver on those commitments, we must continue to plan for the sourcing of the uranium we need well ahead of time. In the near and mid-term, we always start with our expected production from MacArthur River Key Lake, Cigar Lake, and Inkai.
Speaker Change: We must build a home for our pounds years ahead of time before we pull them out of the ground in order to avoid having to sell material into a thinly traded and discretionary spot market.
Speaker Change: That means in today's contracting cycle, we can link the pounds that we previously left in the ground to the long term contractual commitments that are being negotiated today.
Speaker Change: And those contracts are being executed in the context of a significantly improved market environment.
Speaker Change: Generating value for cameco, as we deliver into them now and in the years to come.
Speaker Change: We ended 2023 with a healthy contract book in total long term commitments of 205 million pounds of uranium with 37 customers worldwide.
Speaker Change: That total commitment level of over 200 million pounds only represents about 20% of our current reserve and resource base.
Speaker Change: Providing us with plenty of exposure to improving demand from our customers as they look to secure their long term needs.
Speaker Change: To deliver on those commitments, we must continue to plan for the sourcing of the uranium we need well ahead of time.
Speaker Change: In the near and mid term, we always start with our expected production for Mcarthur River key Lake Cigar Lake and <unk>.
Tim Gitzel: We can then draw material from our inventory, and with the licensed storage facilities that we operate, we have secured the ability to borrow product under the terms of some of our storage agreements. Additionally, we have the ability to pull forward long-term purchase arrangements that we put in place in a much lower price environment. Our marketing team can also source material for market purchase. While those purchases would be more expensive than our production and other available supply, our strategy and long-term portfolio position us to benefit when there's increased near-term demand for scarce nuclear fuel supplies and services. However, when it comes to sourcing for the longer term, based on our existing contract portfolio and the contracting momentum that is building in the market, we do expect to need more than our current annual production volume. That includes the more than 130 million Tier 1 pounds that we left in the ground when we shifted into supply discipline from 2016 to 2022. As a major producer, we don't often discuss our pipeline of reserves and resources.
Speaker Change: And then draw material from our inventory and with the license storage facilities that we operate we have secured the ability to borrow product under the terms of some of our storage agreements.
Speaker Change: Additionally, we have the ability to pull forward long term purchase arrangements that we put in place in a much lower price environment.
Speaker Change: Our marketing team can also source material for market purchases.
Speaker Change: While those purchases would be more expensive than our production and other available supply and our strategy and long term portfolio positions us to benefit when there's increased near term demand for scarce nuclear fuel supplies and services.
Speaker Change: However, when it comes to sourcing for the longer term based on our existing contract portfolio and the contracting momentum that is building in the market.
Speaker Change: We do expect to need more than our current annual production volumes.
Speaker Change: That includes the more than $130 million tier one pounds that we've left in the ground when we shifted into supply discipline from 2016 to 2022.
Speaker Change: As a major producer, we don't often discuss our pipeline of reserves and resources.
Tim Gitzel: But when we consider that pipeline in the context of the more than 200 million pounds we've committed under long-term contracts that include escalated prices and escalated floors and ceilings, we have an exposure rate of about 80%. That means we have about 800 million pounds of current in-ground inventory that is not contracted or priced, representing future potential value. That's part of a very deliberate strategy.
Speaker Change: But when we consider that pipeline in the context of the more than 200 million pounds. We've committed under long term contracts that include escalated prices and escalated floors and ceilings, we havent exposure rate of about 80%.
Speaker Change: That means we have about 800 million pounds of current in ground inventory that is not contracted or priced representing future potential value.
Speaker Change: That's part of a very deliberate strategy.
Tim Gitzel: As a proven and diversified producer, Cameco is well positioned to add long-term value. And, since we are always adding to a contract portfolio that provides upside participation and downside protection, we expect the development of future production from that in-ground inventory will be funded by the cash flow from product sales, not from dilutive equity raises or significant debt leverage. Thanks to our discipline and our improving financial performance, we can consider the next steps in our strategy and start to invest in our Tier 1 capacity. We now have an updated Cigar Lake Technical Report that we expect to release sometime in March, which includes the conversion of over 40 million pounds of our share of indicated resources to probable reserves. Extending the mine life at Cigar to 2036
Speaker Change: As a proven and diversified producer cameco is well positioned to add long term value.
Speaker Change: And since we were always adding to a contract portfolio that provides upside participation and downside protection.
We expect development of future production from that in ground inventory will be funded by the cash flow from product sales not from dilutive equity raises or significant debt leverage.
Speaker Change: Thanks to our discipline and our improving financial performance. We can consider the next steps in our strategy and start to invest in our tier one capacity.
Speaker Change: We now have an updated cigar Lake technical report that we expect to release sometime in March which includes the conversion of over 40 million pounds of our share of indicated resources to probable reserves extending mine life at cigar to 2036.
Tim Gitzel: And we're undertaking a study to evaluate the work, timelines, and investment required to expand the MacArthur River Mine and the Key Lake Mill from 18 million pounds of annual production today up to the licensed capacity of 25 million pounds, our share being 70%. If we took advantage of all Tier 1 growth opportunities, our annual share of Tier 1 uranium supply could be about 32 million pounds. But beyond our Tier 1 assets, we also continue to assess the future need and economic potential of our fully licensed and permitted Tier 2 assets. Those assets remain on Karen Mains today, but they provide another layer of optionality when it comes to sourcing material for long-term commitments. And remember that unlike a declared or untested asset owned by a developer making promises, our Tier 2 assets are demonstrated assets with an operational history and known cost. And they're in the hands of a proven producer, putting them in a much lower risk category. As one of the world's largest producers, we don't realize any benefit from the voluntary public disclosure of our advanced project work at Millennium, Uliri, and Kintyre or from our ongoing exploration successes.
Speaker Change: And we are undertaking a study to evaluate the work timelines and investment required to expand the Mcarthur River mine and the key Lake Mill from 18 million pounds of annual production today up to the license capacity of 25 million pounds, our share being 70%.
Speaker Change: If we took advantage of all tier one growth opportunities our annual share of tier one uranium supply could be about 32 million pounds.
Speaker Change: But beyond our tier one assets. We also continue to assess the future needs and economic potential of our fully licensed and permitted tier two assets.
Speaker Change: Those assets remain on churn means today, but they provide another layer of optionality when it comes to sourcing material for long term commitments.
Speaker Change: And remember that unlike a declared or untested asset owned by a developer making promises are tier two assets are demonstrated assets with an operational history and known cost <unk>.
Speaker Change: And they are in the hands of a proven producer putting them in a much lower risk category.
Speaker Change: I was one of the world's largest producers we don't realize any benefit from the voluntary public disclosure of our advanced project work at Millennium, Youll Leery, and Kintyre ore from our ongoing exploration successes.
Tim Gitzel: But there, too, we continue to make progress and evaluate future prospects that align with market demand and our long-term contract sourcing requirements. We've provided a bit more background on our exploration framework in our MD&A this year because it's not widely known that we have discovered numerous greenfield prospects and deposits over the years. And those discoveries are underlying the very attractive land position on the most prospective trends, all right in our backyard of northern Saskatchewan, where we have well-established industrial and mine support infrastructure and where our exploration activities continue. Beyond uranium mining, our contracting success and financial strength are also allowing us to grow and enhance the value of our fuel cycle assets and other investments. Similar to our mining assets, we won't increase fuel services production or capacity until we see customer commitment. Thanks to that disciplined approach, we have the capacity to grow at a time when customers are avoiding Russian supplies and services. And the market has identified a significant need in the conversion and enrichment stages of the fuel cycle.
Speaker Change: But there are two we continue to make progress and evaluate future prospects that are aligned with market demand and our long term contract sourcing requirements.
Speaker Change: We've provided a bit more background on our exploration framework in our MD&A. This year because it is not widely known that we have discovered numerous greenfield prospects in deposits over the years.
Speaker Change: And those discoveries are underlying the very attractive land position on the most prospective trends all right in our backyard of northern Saskatchewan, where we have well established industrial and mine support infrastructure and where our exploration activities continue.
Speaker Change: Beyond uranium mining our contracting success and financial strength is also allowing us to grow and enhance the value of our fuel cycle assets and other investments.
Speaker Change: Similar to our mining assets, we won't increase fuel services production or capacity until we see customer commitments.
Speaker Change: Thanks to that disciplined approach, we have the capacity to grow at a time when customers are avoiding Russian supplies and services.
Speaker Change: And the market has identified a significant need in the conversion and enrichment stages of the fuel cycle.
Tim Gitzel: To meet those growing commitments in our fuel services segment, we are increasing our 2024 UF6 production at Port Hope to 12,000 tons, which would represent a record production level for the facility, exceeding the record production levels we set in both 2022 and again in 2023. We've now contracted 75,000 tons of UF6 conversion with 33 customers worldwide, which we expect to underpin the operation of our Port Hope conversion facility for years to come. We also have a 49% interest in Global Laser Enrichment, which holds the exclusive license to deploy a third-generation uranium enrichment technology. Subject to its continued progress towards commercialization, if successful, GLE could have the ability to help meet the evolving enrichment needs of the industry, such as Re-Enriching Depleted Uranium Tails.
Speaker Change: To meet those growing commitments in our fuel services segment, we are increasing our 2024 you have six production at Port hope to 12000 tonnes.
Speaker Change: Which would represent a record production level for the facility exceeding the record production levels, we set in both 2022 and again in 2023.
Speaker Change: We've now contracted 75000 tons of U F. Six conversion with 33 customers worldwide, which we expect to underpin the operation of our Port Hope conversion facility for years to come.
Speaker Change: We also have a 49% interest in global laser enrichment, which holds the exclusive license to deploy a third generation uranium enrichment technology.
Speaker Change: Subject to its continued progress towards commercialization if successful <unk> could have the ability to help meet the evolving enrichment needs of the industry from.
Speaker Change: From re enriching depleted uranium tails to producing commercial low enriched uranium for the global reactor fleet in operation today to.
Tim Gitzel: Producing commercial, low-enriched uranium for the global reactor fleet in operation today, and delivering high-assay, low-enriched uranium for the SMRs and advanced reactors of tomorrow, GLE represents a significant opportunity for Cameco to participate in every stage of the fuel cycle. We're also excited to have added a 49% share of Westinghouse to our portfolio of investments in 2023. Westinghouse is a well-established and critical business to the nuclear power industry, which gives us more exposure to the light water side of the nuclear fuel cycle while adding potential growth opportunities related to their conventional and advanced reactor sales.
Speaker Change: To delivery of high assay low enriched uranium for the SM ours, and an advanced reactors of tomorrow GLA represents a significant opportunity for cameco to participate in every stage of the fuel cycle.
Speaker Change: We're also excited to have added a 49% share of Westinghouse to our portfolio of investments in 2023.
Speaker Change: Westinghouse has a well established and critical business to the nuclear power industry.
Speaker Change: Which gives us more exposure to the lightwater side of the nuclear fuel cycle, while adding potential growth opportunities related to their conventional and advanced reactor sales.
Tim Gitzel: We expect our share of adjusted EBITDA from Westinghouse in 2024 to be between $445 million and $510 million. And we believe the business is well positioned for long-term growth driven by the expected increase in global demand for nuclear power. Over the next five years, we expect Westinghouse's adjusted EBITDA to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6 to 10 percent. But even with the significant acquisition of Westinghouse, we have maintained the capacity for further investments should value-adding opportunities emerge. Our balance sheet remains strong with $567 million in cash.
Speaker Change: We expect our share of adjusted EBITDA from Westinghouse in 2024 to be between $445 million and $510 million.
Speaker Change: And we believe the business is well positioned for long term growth driven by the expected increase in global demand for nuclear power.
Speaker Change: Over the next five years, we expect westinghouse's adjusted EBITDA to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6% to 10%.
But even with the significant acquisition and Westinghouse we have maintained the capacity for further investments should value adding opportunities emerge.
Speaker Change: Our balance sheet remains strong with $567 million in cash.
Tim Gitzel: Approximately $1.8 billion in total debt and a $1 billion undrawn credit facility. In our uranium segment, we expect this past year's strong financial performance to continue in 2024. We will continue to transition to our Tier 1 cost structure and deploy the capital and other expenditures we believe are necessary to meet our commitments and position the company for continued, sustainable growth, growth that will be pursued in the same manner that we approach all aspects of our business strategically, deliberate, disciplined, and with a focus on generating full cycle value. And with a continued focus on the environmental, social, and governance side of our business as well, where we are very We integrate ESG principles and practices into every aspect of our business, from our corporate objectives and our approach to compensation to our overall corporate strategy, risk management, and day-to-day operations.
Speaker Change: Approximately $1 8 billion in total debt and a $1 billion Undrawn credit facility.
Speaker Change: In our uranium segment, we expect this past year's strong financial performance to continue in 2024.
Speaker Change: We will continue to transition to our tier one cost structure and deploy the capital and other expenditures, we believe are necessary to meet our commitments and position. The company for continued sustainable growth growth that will be pursued in the same manner that we approached all aspects of our business strategic deliberate disciplined.
Speaker Change: And with a focus on generating full cycle value and with a continued focus on the environmental social and governance side of our business as well, where we are very proud of our track record.
Speaker Change: We integrate ESG principles and practices into every aspect of our business from our corporate objectives, and our approach to compensation to our overall corporate strategy risk management and day to day operations.
Tim Gitzel: As part of our low carbon transition plan, we created tailored decarbonization pathways in 2023 for each site we operate to support the achievement of our 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target. We also completed an analysis of climate change scenarios at our Northern Saskatchewan and Ontario operations to better understand how changing climate conditions could impact our employees and our assets in the long term. I encourage you to read through our annual MD&A, where we go beyond just performance highlights. In it, you will see a much more detailed picture of our strategy, how we operate, and importantly, insight into the uranium and nuclear fuel market, a market that is unlike any other. So thank you for your interest today, and we would be happy to take any questions. We will now begin the question and answer session. In the interest of time, we ask you to limit your questions to one with one supplementary question. If you have additional questions, you're welcome to rejoin the queue. Join the question queue You may press star then one on your telephone keypad.
Speaker Change: As part of our low carbon transition plan, we created tailored decarbonization pathways in 2023 for each site, we operate to support the achievement of our 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets.
Speaker Change: We also completed an analysis of climate change scenarios at our northern Saskatchewan, and Ontario operations.
Speaker Change: To better understand how changing climate conditions could impact our employees and our assets in the long term.
Speaker Change: I encourage you to read through our annual MD&A, where we go beyond just performance highlights.
Speaker Change: In it you will see a much more detailed picture of our strategy, how we operate and importantly insight into the uranium nuclear fuel market.
Speaker Change: A market that is unlike any other.
Speaker Change: So thank you for your interest today, and we would be happy to take any questions.
We will now begin the question and answer session.
Speaker Change: In the interest of time, we ask you to limit your questions. One with one supplemental if you have additional questions you're welcome to meet joined the queue.
Speaker Change: Joined the question queue, you May Press Star then one on your telephone keypad.
Operator: You will hear a tone acknowledging your request. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. To withdraw from the question queue, please press star then. Webcast participants are welcome to submit questions through the box at the bottom of the webcast frame. The Cameco Investor Relations Team will follow up with you by email after the call. Once again, anyone on the conference call who wishes to ask a question may press, star, and one at the. The first question comes from Ralph Profiti of 8 Capital. Please go ahead.
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Speaker Change: And cast participants are welcome to submit questions through the box at the bottom of the webcast frame.
Speaker Change: <unk> Investor Relations team will follow with you by E Mail after the call.
Speaker Change: Again, any one of the conference call, who wishes to ask a question maybe Chris.
Speaker Change: Star and one at this time.
Speaker Change: The first question comes from Ralph <unk> of eight capital. Please go ahead.
Ralph M. Profiti: Good morning Cameco team, thanks for taking my question. Uh, Tim, in the evaluation of MacArthur River up to 25 million pounds, when will this work be completed? And assuming things being taken into consideration include issues from September 2023, including supply chain, skilled labor, as well as some of the special technical considerations, do you see a potential scenario where Tier 2, whether it be USISR or Rabbit Lake, may be more desirable than MacArthur River production? Because those production centers may not be as desirable. Yeah, good morning Ralph. It's nice to hear from you.
Ralph: Good morning, chemical team thanks for taking my questions.
Ralph:
Ralph: Tim and devaluation of Mcarthur River up to 25 million pounds. When will this work will be completed.
Ralph: And assuming things being taken into consideration include issues from September 2023, including supply chain skilled labor as well as some of the special technical considerations do you see a potential scenario, where tier two whether it be U S ISR or rabbit Lake may be more desirable than Mcarthur River production because those production centers may not.
Ralph: B as constraint.
Speaker Change: Yes, good morning, Ralph Nice too nice to hear from you.
Tim Gitzel: We're just starting the MacArthur Key evaluation work now. We see a market that we think might need those pounds going forward. Those are probably the best pounds on the planet that are not in production yet.
Speaker Change: We're just starting the Mcarthur key evaluation work now we're seeing a market that we think.
Speaker Change: Might need those pounds going forward those are probably the best pounds on the planet that they're not in production yet so we're starting our work on.
Tim Gitzel: So, you know, we're starting our work on what we need to do to de-bottleneck at the Key Lake Mill. The mine's running well today, and we know it can produce at that level. So we're starting the work. Obviously, we're not going to produce on spec. Grant has said that a hundred times.
Speaker Change: What we need to do to Debottleneck at at the key Lake Mill.
Speaker Change: <unk> is running well today and we know can produce at that level. So we're starting to work obviously, we're not going to produce on spec Grant has said that 100 times. We produced in the contracts that we have so we will get that work going in like I say, we're going after that before we go after any tier two I think.
Tim Gitzel: We produce in the contracts that we have. So we'll get that work going. And like I say, we're going after that before we go after any Tier 2, I think, project that we still have in care and maintenance. But don't rule those out either, Ralph, because those are on our batting lineup further down the list.
Speaker Change: Reject that we still have in care and maintenance, but don't rule those out either Ralph because those are those are on our batting lineup further down the list, but first as we said in our in our quarter here, we're going to look at Debottlenecking Mcarthur and key so we can get those to 25, and then that extension don't under.
Tim Gitzel: But first, as we said in our quarter here, we're going to look at de-bottlenecking MacArthur and Key, so we can get those to 25. And then that extension, don't underweight that extension of Cigar Lake to 2036. That's a huge move and it really sets us up well for the future. Okay, understood. Yeah, thanks for that color.
Speaker Change: Underway that extension of cigar Lake to 2036, that's a huge move and it really sets us up well for the future.
Speaker Change: Okay understood thanks for that color.
Ralph M. Profiti: I also noticed in the Uranium Sensitivity Table that the leverage to, you know, 5% change in uranium prices to revenue is quite low this year. I'm just wondering what's going on with the contract book versus the realized price guidance and why we're seeing that sort of diminished leverage versus previous years. And it seems like this is a function of the contract books maybe perhaps hitting more of those ceilings or perhaps even flexing on the part of customer discretion. Yeah, Ralph, Grant's our very best expert on that, so Grant, do you want to take that? Yeah, it's a great question, Ralph.
Speaker Change: Also noticed in the uranium sensitivity table that the leverage to a 5% change in uranium revenue was quite low this year I'm just wondering what's going on with the contract book versus the realized price guidance and why we're seeing that sort of diminished leverage versus previous years and it seems like this is a function of the contract books.
Speaker Change: Maybe perhaps hitting more of those ceilings or perhaps even up flexing on the part of customer discretion.
Speaker Change: Regrets our very best expert on that so grant you want to take that.
Yes, great question Ralph.
Grant Isaac: And, and let's be really clear that we set a strategy that supports short-term price discovery in order to create long-term value. And what I mean by that is, It is categorically the wrong way to think about a uranium producer as saving production for the spot market in order to maximize near-term leverage to the spot market. And the reason for that, we said over and over again, and people really need to understand this, the spot market is small, it's discretionary, it's non-fundamental, and it is low-quality demand. If Cameco produced... and showed up and tried to sell pounds into the spot market, It would not be discovering higher prices; the opposite would happen. The market would realize that we would be showing up with uncommitted primary production, and the market would back off. And don't take my word for it.
Grant Isaac: Let's be let's be really clear that we set a strategy.
Grant Isaac: That supports short term price discovery in order to create long term value and what I mean by that is it.
Speaker Change: It is categorically the wrong way to think about a uranium producer as saving production.
Speaker Change: For the spot market in order to maximize near term leverage to the spot market and the reason for that we said over and over again and people really need to understand this the spot market is small it's discretionary it's non fundamental and it is low quality.
Matt: Matt if cameco produced.
Matt: And showed up and tried to sell pounds into the spot market.
It would not be discovering higher prices the opposite what happened in the market would realize that.
Matt: That we would be showing up with uncommitted primary production in the market with backup and don't take my word for it look at what happened in the days when palette and for example was a spot market sellers or kazatomprom was the spot market seller.
Grant Isaac: Look at what happened in the days when Paladin, for example, was a spot market seller, or Kazatomprom was a spot market seller. That strategy has been proven to be a colossal failure over and over again. So what matters is the nondiscretionary, fundamental, high-quality demand of the term market. But make no mistake, Ralph; we don't miss these market moves. We just capture them and build them into the forward contract.
Matt: That strategy has been proven to be a colossal failure over and over again, so what matters is the.
Matt: Is the non discretionary fundamental high quality demand that the term market.
Matt: But make no mistake, Ralph we don't Miss these market moves, we just capture them and build them into the forward contract book you have heard me say over and over again, we prefer market related contracts right now.
Grant Isaac: You have heard me say over and over again, we prefer market-related contracts right now. A move like this in the spot market, which we don't sell into because we don't want to undermine that move in the spot market, allows us to then price market-related contracts forward on a much more attractive basis than we did before the spot market move. And I'll just give you an example.
Matt: Move like this in the spot market, which we don't sell into because we don't want to undermine that move in the spot market.
Matt: Allows us to then price market related contracts forward on a much more attractive basis than we did before the spot market and I'll. Just give you. An example, when uranium pushed over $100 per pad cameco doesn't immediately go how do we sell into the spot market. We go how do we translate that.
Grant Isaac: When uranium pushed over $100 per pound, Cameco didn't immediately go, "How do we sell into the spot market?" We go, "How do we translate that kind of quick move in the spot market into forward value? So a market-related contract that we would write today and give to a utility probably has a floor tucked right up at today's long-term price, escalated, and probably has a ceiling in the 120s, escalated. That is how we capture the value of a spot market move. Those who want to play the spot market show up with uncommitted primary production. They put pressure on it.
Matt: Spot market quick move in the forward value. So a market related contract that we would write today and give to a utility.
Matt: Probably has a floor tucked right up at today's long term price escalated and probably has a ceiling in the 100 twenty's escalated that is how we capture the value of a spot market move those who want to play the spot market show up with uncommitted primary production they put pressure on it.
Grant Isaac: In a thinly traded market, it goes down, and they ride it back up. What we do is take those moves, and we build them into the contract portfolio going forward. It's a strategy that sustains near-term price discovery and helps bring that long-term price back up to a sustainable production economic level. With all that context, it should come as no surprise.
Matt: A thinly traded market it goes down and they write it backed out what we do is we take those views we built it into the contract portfolio going forward.
Matt: It's a strategy that sustains near term price discovery and helps bring that long term price back up to a sustainable production economic level, so with all that context no surprise.
Grant Isaac: Contracts that we entered into a number of years ago where you know if they were, if they were at, You know, a $70 ceiling a few years ago would have been a really attractive ceiling. We might be hitting those ceilings in a market related today, for example, or if there was some base escalated portion. It is good news that this is occurring. It means the market is going into a security of supply contracting cycle It means forward value capture is growing, and then, of course, I want to reference the comment Tim made, which you know folks, 20% of our portfolio of reserves and resources is contracted. Eighty percent is not.
Matt: Contracts that we entered into a number of years ago, where.
Matt: If they were if they were at <unk>.
Matt: $70 ceiling, a few years ago would have been a really attractive sealy, we might be hitting those ceilings and a market related today for example, or if there was some base escalated Porsche.
Matt: It is good news that this is occurring it means the market is going into a security of supply contracting cycle. It means our supply disciplined strategy is working it means the forward value capture is growing and then of course I want to reference the comment Tim made which.
Matt: Folks.
Matt: 20% of our portfolio of reserves and resources as contracted 80% is not that.
Grant Isaac: That's 800 million pounds of uranium to be priced in a much better environment now. So we never miss these moves. We build these moves into long-term contracts, long-term cash flow, and earnings. That's what's happening. That's helpful, Tim and Graham. Thanks very much.
Matt: That's 800 million pounds of uranium to be priced in a much better environment now. So we never missed these moves we build these moves into long term contracts long term cash flow and earnings that's what's happening.
Speaker Change: That's helpful, Tim or grant thanks, very much great context on strategy. Thanks, again, thanks, a lot Ralph.
Ralph M. Profiti: Great context on the strategy. Thanks a lot, Ralph. The next question comes from Andrew Wong of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning.
Speaker Change: The next question comes from Andrew Wong of RBC capital markets. Please go ahead.
Andrew Wong: Hi, good morning, Thanks for taking my questions.
Andrew Wong: Thanks for taking my questions. Can you just talk about your confidence level on production returning to nameplate in 2024? And just on the longer-term projects for Cigar MacArthur, I think previously the messaging was that, you know, those projects may not be looked at until the volumes start getting contracted, and the demand is there. So now that work is starting on those projects, does that mean that those volumes are starting to get some contracting activity? Thanks, Andrew, for the question. Yeah, so just how confident are we on production for this year? We put out an 18 million pound forecast for each of those sites, and we're very confident that we'll make that. We have got some more operating experience at MacArthur and Quay every month that goes by. It gives us another view of how it's going, and I'd say the last two months have been very good. Looking at Brian Riley, our production has been very good, very steady. We're working out some of the bottlenecks or kinks that you have with a restart, so we're really happy with the way things are going there. Same with Cigar.
Andrew Wong: Can you just talk about your confidence level on production returning to nameplate in 2024.
Andrew Wong: Just on the longer term projects, where cigar and Mcarthur I think previously the messaging with that.
Andrew Wong: Those projects may not be locked out until the volumes.
Andrew Wong: On track there and the demand was there. So now that work is starting on those projects does that mean that those volumes are starting to get some contracting activity.
Speaker Change: Thanks, Andrew for the question, yes. So just how confident are we on production for this year, we put out 18 million pound forecast for for each of those sites and we're very confident that we'll make it up.
Speaker Change: <unk> got some more operating experience at Mcarthur and key every month that goes by here is it gives us another view on how it's going and I would say the last four months have been very good looking at Brian Reilly.
Speaker Change: Our production has been very good very steady we're working out some of the <unk>.
Speaker Change: The bottlenecks or Kinks that you have with the restart so we're really happy with the way things are going there same at cigar.
Tim Gitzel: You know, a well-established mine. We've been operating there for years. We moved into that new war zone. We're getting that under control. The mill had some hiccups, but they've got that under control. So yeah, we're very confident in our forecast for 2024. And going forward, yeah, as I said earlier, we won't produce on spec, but we will get those assets ready to go at MacArthur Quay. And once Grant and his team have contracts in front of us that call for that production, we will move those forward. We'll move the production up at MacArthur Quay. And so, you know, there's a timing thing. Things don't just happen overnight.
Speaker Change: Well established mine, we've been operating there for years, we moved into the New words zone, we're getting that under control of the mill.
Speaker Change: Some hiccups and they've got that under control. So yes, we're very confident in our forecast for <unk> for 2024 and going forward.
Speaker Change: As I said earlier, we want to produce on spec, but we will get those assets ready to go at Mcarthur key end once grant and his team has have contracts and.
Speaker Change: In front of us that call for that production. We will we will we will move those forward will move their production up at Mcarthur key.
Speaker Change: And so.
Speaker Change: There is a timing thing and things don't just happen overnight, we want to be ready when that happens in the contracts. We sign those long term contracts that grant was reference referencing earlier they.
Tim Gitzel: We want to be ready when that happens, and the contracts we sign, those long-term contracts that Grant was referencing earlier, don't start deliveries for a number of years. So we've got time to get things ready, and we've got dry powder, and when the time comes, we'll be ready to go. So we really like our positioning. Okay, great.
Speaker Change: They don't start deliveries for a number of years. So we've got time to.
Speaker Change: To get things ready and just we've got dry powder and when.
Speaker Change: When the time comes we will be ready to go so we really like our positioning.
Speaker Change: Okay, great and maybe on maybe for grant.
Andrew Wong: And maybe for Grant, you know, the contracting strategy, it makes a lot of sense. Could you maybe just talk about how the contract book and price sensitivity table would look beyond the years that are in that table, maybe into the late 2020s and early 2030s, where you might get more of that leverage in the rising price environment that we're seeing today? Yeah, absolutely designed for leverage in that rising price environment. I mean, really important to emphasize, we are still in supply-disappointment. We are not calling the top of the market.
Speaker Change: Contract and strategy makes a lot of sense.
Speaker Change: Could you maybe just talk about how the contract Boston and price sensitive sensitivity table would look like.
Speaker Change: The years that are in that table may be until like the late 2000 Twenty's in early 2000, <unk>, where you might get more of that leverage to the rising price environment that we're seeing today, yes.
Speaker Change: Yes, absolutely designed for leverage to that rising price environment, I mean really important to emphasize we are still in supply discipline.
Speaker Change: We are not calling the top of the market. This is not peak demand going ahead and uranium yet we're in the early stages of this contracting cycle early stages that suggests it's the right strategy to be very disciplined with our supply we're thinking about moving the tier one to full capacity.
Grant Isaac: This is not peak demand going on in uranium yet. We're in the early stages of this contracting cycle, early stages that suggest it's the right strategy to be very disciplined with our supply. We're thinking about moving tier one to full capacity like Tim talked about, but we haven't made that decision yet with respect to MacArthur Key. We haven't even started talking about tier twos.
Speaker Change: Like Tim talked about but we haven't made that decision yet with respect to Mcarthur key and we haven't even started talking about the tier twos.
Grant Isaac: If we put that all together and said what our annual capability would be, that's about 38 million pounds of annual production. You can see in our guidance table 22.4. Cameco is not calling peak demand here or peak price discovery in the uranium business. We're still in supply discipline. We're still in supply discipline because we think when we look at the uncovered requirements wedge, a lot of demand, non-discretionary fundamental demand needs to come to the market, and we want to be exposed to that. It isn't about selling out the volumes.
Speaker Change: We put that all together and said what would our annual capability be that's about 38 million pounds of annual production and you see in our guidance table 22, four so cameco is not calling peak demand here or a peak price discovery in the uranium business. We're still in supply discipline, we're still in supply discipline, because we think when we look at the uncovered requirements.
Speaker Change: <unk> a lot of demand non discretionary funding fundamental demand needs to come to the market, we want to be exposed to that so it isn't about selling out the volumes, it's about placing volumes under terms and conditions and that makes sense to us today. So that is that market related exposure that I talked about that.
Grant Isaac: It's about placing volumes under terms and conditions that make sense to us today. So that is that market-related exposure that I talked about, that is really dramatically improving floors and ceilings, which are both escalated by the way, and, of course, a long-term price that's now $72 per pound, and that itself is base-escalated if you agree to any of those contracts. So as you can see, going forward, we would look to move beyond that contract table, which only accounts for about 20% of our volume. In fact, that committed sales table is less than that.
Speaker Change: <unk> really dramatically improving floors and ceilings that are both escalated by the way and of course, the long term price. That's now $72 U S per pad and that itself is base escalated. If you agreed to any of those contracts. So as you see going forward, but we would look to move beyond that contract table.
Speaker Change: Which only accounts for about 20% of our volume in fact that committed sales table is less than that it's only about 13% of our volumes because it is just the next five years. So we have 80% of those volumes that arent yet sold yet to good think prices are going up we want that exposure to future prices and when you think about our reserve.
Grant Isaac: It's only about 13% of our volumes because it's just the next five years. So we have 80% of those volumes that aren't sold yet. It's a good thing.
Grant Isaac: Prices are going up. We want that exposure to future prices, and when you think about our reserves and resources that aren't yet priced, that have that pure exposure to the uranium price, those are reserves and resources that are in the hands of a proven producer, and many of those reserves and resources are adjacent to existing infrastructure and can take advantage of all those incumbencies. So this is exactly where a responsible uranium producer wants to be, should be in a market that is entering a security of supply contracting cycle. So, absolutely, we love our position.
Speaker Change: <unk> resources that arent, yet priced that have that pure exposure to the uranium price those are reserves and resources that are in the hands of approve it proven producer with and many of those reserves and resources are adjacent to existing infrastructure and to get take advantage of all of those incumbency. So this is exact.
Speaker Change: We're a responsible uranium producer wants to be should be in a market that is entering a security of supply contracting cycle. So absolutely we love our position we loved that exposure going forward. It would be foolish to say well, we should just be trying to jam all of our material through.
Grant Isaac: We love that exposure going forward. It would be foolish to say, well, we should just be trying to jam all of our material through a $103 spot market because the spot market wouldn't be $103 if we tried to do that. That would be a really silly strategy.
Speaker Change: $103 spot market, because the spot market wouldn't be a $103. If we tried to do that that would be a really silly strategy, so that exposure going forward.
Grant Isaac: So, with that exposure going forward, nobody has a better position than we do. Great. Thank you very much.
Speaker Change: Nobody has a better position than we do.
Speaker Change: Great. Thank you very much thanks, Andrew.
Orest Wowkodaw: Thanks, Andrew. The next question comes from Orest Wowkodaw of Scotiabank. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning.
Speaker Change: The next question comes from <unk> <unk> of Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Speaker Change: Hi, good morning.
Orest Wowkodaw: A couple of questions on my end, if I could. First of all, can you give us an idea of what kind of capital is required to bring MacArthur up to 25 and to extend CIGAR? So Brian, do you want to take that one?
Speaker Change: A couple of questions on my end if I could.
Speaker Change: First of all can you give us an idea of what kind of capital is required for to bring mcarthur up to 25 and to extend cigar.
Speaker Change: So Brian do you want to take that sure.
Brian Macarthur: Yeah, sure. Yeah, great question. Certainly, the Cigar Lake Extension. We are well advanced. We completed a pre-feasibility study that verified the economic feasibility of the extension.
Brian Reilly: Great question, certainly cigar Lake extension, we are well advanced we completed a pre feasibility study.
Brian Reilly: Verified the economic feasibility of the extension we've converted resources to reserves. So we're well down the track there will produce a technical report next month as Tim mentioned with all the details, but what we have now in terms of our share for capital at cigar Lake extension somewhere in the 250 300 million.
Brian Macarthur: We've converted resources to reserve, so we're well down the track there. We'll produce a technical report next month, as Tim mentioned, with all the details. But what we have now, in terms of our share of capital at Cigar Lake Extension, somewhere in the $250, $300 million range to extend it up to 2036. So Cigar Lake Extension is in good shape, and we'll produce a technical report with all the details. MacArthur key expansion, early days, very early days, as Tim mentioned, we've just commenced the assessment in terms of what's required at the mine and an end-to-end study at the mill. So I would suggest just hanging in there.
Brian Reilly: Range to extend it out to 2036, so cigar Lake extension has been good in good shape and we will.
Brian Reilly: It will produce a technical report with all the details Mcarthur key expansion early days very early days as Tim mentioned, we've just <unk>.
Brian Reilly: <unk> assessment in terms of what's required at the at the mine and in the end to end study at the mill. So I would I would suggest just hang in there will be will be better position later in the year, but still still early days for Mcarthur key expansion.
Brian Macarthur: We'll be better positioned later in the year, but still early days for MacArthur's key expansion. Okay, but would it be fair to say it's less than a billion dollars? Like we're talking in the hundreds of millions?
Speaker Change: Okay, but would it be fair to say, it's less than a $1 billion.
Speaker Change: We're talking in the hundreds of millions Oh goodness, yes.
Orest Wowkodaw: Oh goodness, yes, yes. And then a quick question for Grant, if I could, just on the committed purchases, I guess you've got 4.7 million pounds committed to acquire this year. Can you give us any kind of idea of how the cost, how the pricing mechanism works on those contracts, like does it move with market pricing, is it fixed, how should we think about that? Yeah, thanks Orest. So on page 51 of the MD&A for folks that are looking, we do have a bit of new disclosure on our purchase commitments. In previous markets where, you know, the spot was oversupplied and we were in extreme supply discipline and wanted to be heavily over-contracted, we would put a big purchase number out there because we wanted the market to know that demand was coming and start cleaning up the front end of the market and discovering better prices.
Speaker Change: Yes perfect.
Speaker Change: And then a quick question for grant if I could just on the committed purchases I guess, you're you've got $4 7 million pounds.
Grant Isaac: <unk> to acquire this year can you give us any kind of idea of how the cost like how.
Grant Isaac: The pricing mechanism works on those contracts like does it move with market pricing as a fixed how should we think about that yes.
Grant Isaac: Yeah. Thanks, <unk>. So on page 51 of the MD&A for folks that are looking we do have a bit of new disclosure actually on our purchase commitments in previous markets, where the spot was oversupplied and we were in extreme supply discipline and wanted to be heavily over contracted we would put a big <unk>.
Grant Isaac: <unk> number out there because we wanted the market to know that demand was coming in they start cleaning up the front end of the market and discovering better prices, but as we're at this phase of our transition restoring our tier one costs, bringing production back we wanted to bring a bit more granularity between what purchases or are we already committed to make in <unk>.
Orest Wowkodaw: But as we're at this phase of our transition, restoring our tier one cost, and bringing production back, we wanted to bring a bit more granularity between what purchases we are already committed to make and which ones we might go into the market to buy. And what you see when we cut it that way is very small exposure to the market. We said up to two million pounds that we might buy in the market, but we might. We don't have to.
Grant Isaac: Which ones might we go into the market to buy and what you see when we can cut it that way.
Grant Isaac: It's very small exposure to the market, we said up to 2 million pounds that we might buy in the market.
Speaker Change: But we Mike we don't have to we have other options.
Grant Isaac: We have other options in order to source our committed sales. Some of those other options include purchases that we make under a long-term purchase commitment. And I think that's what you're referring to.
Speaker Change: In order to source our committed sales some of those other options include purchases that we make under a long term purchase commitments and I think thats, what youre, referring to generally what happens in those long term purchase commitments as we will see a market, where we might think that uranium prices low and.
Grant Isaac: Generally, what happens in those long-term purchase commitments is we'll see a market where, you know, we might think the uranium price is low. And when we do, we might find a seller who's willing to fix a price for us, subject to a carry trade for delivery out into the future. But for many of those contracts, we have the ability to take delivery when it makes sense for us, so we fix the price in a lower pricing environment. We take delivery only when it makes sense to meet our committed sales volumes. It's the best trading margin in the business. So many of those long-term contracting, long-term purchase commitments were made, you know, in that $30 uranium market. They've escalated a bit, you know, some of them in more recent years, but still, well short of today's market prices.
Speaker Change: When we do we might find a seller who's willing to fix a price for us subject to a carry trade for delivery out into the future, but for many of those contracts we have the ability to take delivery when it makes sense for us. So we fixed the price in a lower pricing environment, we take delivery when it makes sense to meet our committed <unk>.
Speaker Change: <unk> volumes.
Speaker Change: The best trading margin in the business. So many of those long term contracting launch our purchase commitments were made in that $30 uranium market they've escalated a bit.
Speaker Change: Some of them in more recent years, but well well short of todays market prices. So this is just part of how we think about sourcing material over the long run so very small market exposure to be deployed if we want to and then subject to the purchases that come in from an Cai the purchases that come in from the long term.
Grant Isaac: So this is just part of how we think about sourcing material over the long run. So very small market exposure to be deployed if we want to, and then subject to the purchases that come in from NCAI, the purchases that come in from the long-term purchase program. The final thing on NCAI is to always remember that we're never afraid of rising uranium prices. And NCAI is a perfect example.
Speaker Change: Purchase program the final thing on MKS always remember.
Speaker Change: We're never afraid of rising uranium prices and <unk> is a perfect example, yes, we'll buy the material from <unk> at a discount to the spot price those will be very expensive.
Grant Isaac: Yes, we'll buy the material from NCAI at a discount to the spot price. It will be very expensive. But if those are expensive, then the dividend that comes back from INCAI is even bigger. So the economic value of those Tier 1 assets is always ours, and we don't fear when prices go up. We don't miss these markets. We capture that value over the long term. So, a very attractive source of supply that really reduces our need to go into the market to purchase. But if we see the opportunity to purchase, we'll stick our noses in there. So, if somebody decides they want to try to sell material through the spot market, we might be a buyer. Thanks, Grant. So ultimately, I think if I understand your new disclosure, there's only up to 2 million pounds that you're planning to buy from the market at market. Yeah, that's right.
Speaker Change: But if those are expensive than the dividend that comes back from NK is even bigger so the economic value of those tier one assets is always ours and we don't fear when prices go up we don't Miss these markets, we capture that value on the long term, so very attractive source of supply that really reduces.
Speaker Change: Our need to go into the market to purchase, but if we see the opportunity to purchase will stick our nose in there. So if somebody decides they want to try to sell material through the spot market.
Speaker Change: We might be a buyer.
Speaker Change: Thanks, Greg So ultimately I think if I understand your new disclosure there is only up to 2 million pounds that you are planning to buy from the market at market pricing, Yes, that's right.
Grant Isaac: We saw that some folks were completely misreading our outlook table in the past. They were taking the overall purchases, and they assumed every one of those was going to be made in the spot market, and trying to drive an incorrect narrative about financial distress. And, of course, we've never run the company that way. If that were the case, our outlook table would be very different.
Greg: We saw that some folks where we're completely miss reading our outlook table in the past they were they were taking the overall purchases and they were assuming every one of those was going to be made in the spot market and tried to drive it incorrect narrative about financial distress and of course, we never run the company that way if that were the case.
Greg: The outlook table would be very different so we wanted to put some granularity out there to lots of sophisticated folks understand what we do but some don't and so we just wanted to make sure we had that granularity and remind folks that actually it's up to 2 million pounds, we could source it directly in the spot market.
Orest Wowkodaw: So we wanted to put some granularity out there to, you know, lots of sophisticated folks understand what we do, but some don't. And so we just wanted to make sure we had that granularity and remind people that that actually is up to two million pounds. We could source it directly in the spot market for immediate delivery. We could draw down our inventory. We could access loans.
Speaker Change: For immediate delivery.
Speaker Change: We could draw down our inventory, we could access loans, we could access more of the long term purchases if that made sense for us.
Grant Isaac: We could access more of the long-term purchases if that made sense for us. We could be engaged in a conversation with a customer to move deliveries around in a year for when production comes in. Ultimately, this is what a responsible uranium producer is. Excellent. Thank you. Thank you, Orest.
Speaker Change: Could it be engaged in a conversation with a customer to move deliveries around in a year for wind production comes in.
Speaker Change: Ultimately this is what a responsible uranium producer des.
Speaker Change: Excellent. Thank you. Thank you <unk>.
Speaker Change: The next question comes from Greg Barnes with TD Securities. Please go ahead.
Greg Barnes: Yep, thank you. Just a couple of questions for me, and returning to Cigar Lake Extension. Would that be at the £18 million per year range, or would it decline into 2036? And is there an extension beyond 2036?
Greg Barnes: Thank you just a couple of questions from me and returning back to cigar Lake extension.
Greg Barnes: Would that be at the 18 million pound per year range or just decline into 'twenty 36, and a certain extension beyond 2036.
Tim Gitzel: Greg, thanks for the question. Our plan would be to remain at 18 million pounds per year until 2036. Is there an extension?
Greg Barnes: Greg Thanks for the question.
Greg Barnes: Our plan would be to remain at 18 million pounds per year to 2036 is there an extension.
Tim Gitzel: We're just working on this one right now. So once we get under there, and you know we're moving to the west on that, and so as we get out there, who knows? We'll be poking holes all over down there, so we're hopeful, but we don't have anything to report yet. Okay, just on the Westinghouse guidance for CAGR of 6 to 10 percent a year, does that only include in terms of the AP1000 sales, the ones that have been under contract or under contract currently, or do you make a forecast of potential AP1000 sales that are built into that number as well? Yeah, Greg, here's the good news. It's just the ones that you know about, the ones that Westinghouse has announced.
Speaker Change: We're just working on this one right now so we're we will once we get under there and you know we're moving to the west.
Speaker Change: On that and so as we get out there who knows we'll be broken holes all over down there. So we're hopeful but we don't have anything to report yet Greg.
Speaker Change: Just on the Westinghouse guidance, the CAGR of 6% to 10% a year.
Speaker Change: Does that only include some of.
Speaker Change: The AP 1000 sales are the ones that have been under contract or under contract currently or do you make a forecast of potential AP 1000 sales that are built into that number as well, yes, Greg Here's the good news is it's just the one that you know about the ones that Westinghouse has announced so more upside to come as they as they we believe might have.
Tim Gitzel: So more upside to come as they, we believe, might have a huge opportunity in other markets that are evaluating that stable, proven AP1000 technology, but this is just capturing the beginnings of the contracts required to advance AP1000s in the markets that have already announced. Grant, quickly on Springfields, any decision on restarting that conversion plant or any support from the UK government to do that? Well, lots of interest remains in the conversion plant at Springfields for the natural conversion line, but Springfields is also critical infrastructure for a lot of other ambitions as well. We're continuing to work through that process, obviously very attractive conversion prices right now in the market that puts some wind in the sails for a restart, but it's got to be done responsibly. It's no different than the uranium market. You don't start a conversion plant and then start knocking on people's doors and asking if they want to buy a conversion service because you're just going to push the conversion price down.
Speaker Change: Huge opportunity in other markets that are evaluating that stable.
Speaker Change: Prove it AP 1000 technology, but this is just capturing the beginnings of the contracts required to advance <unk>, one thousands and the markets that have already announced it.
Speaker Change: Hey, Greg quickly on Springfield's any decision on restarting that conversion plants that already support from the U K government to do that well lots of interest remains in the conversion plant at Springfield SaaS for the natural conversion line, but Springfield is also key.
Speaker Change: Critical infrastructure for a lot of other ambitions as well, we're continuing to work through that process, obviously very attractive conversion prices right now in the market that put some wind in the sales for a restart but it's got to be done responsibly, it's no different than the uranium market. You don't you don't start at <unk>.
Speaker Change: <unk> plant and then start knocking on People's doors, and asking if they want to buy conversion service because you're just going to push the conversion priced out you have to do this responsibly and in a disciplined way and we're just working through that process now.
Grant Isaac: You have to do this responsibly and in a disciplined way, and we're just working through that process now. Thanks, Greg. Thank you, Greg. The next question comes from Lawson Winder of Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.
Speaker Change: Thanks, Craig.
Speaker Change: Thank you Greg.
Speaker Change: The next question comes from Lawson Winder of Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.
Lawson Winder: Thank you very much, operator. And good morning, Cameco team. Thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to ask about Westinghouse. And it's fantastic to have the detailed disclosure in the notes. The G&A, effectively, the Marketing Administration and General Expense is a little bit of a larger number than I thought. Would you be able to provide any detail on what goes into that, or what some of the large numbers might be in?
Lawson Winder: Thank you very much operator, and good morning chemical team.
Lawson Winder: Thank you for taking my question I just wanted to ask about.
Lawson Winder: Westinghouse and it's fantastic to have the detailed disclosure in the notes.
Lawson Winder: The <unk>.
Lawson Winder: G&A effectively the marketing administration and general expenses.
Speaker Change: A little bit of a larger number than I thought would you be able to provide any detail on what goes into that or what are some of the large numbers maybe.
Lawson Winder: in that or how that breaks down, and then any guidance for that going forward as well. Thank you. I'll get it granted.
Speaker Change: In that or how that breaks down.
Speaker Change: And then any guidance for that going forward as well. Thank you.
Speaker Change: <unk> to answer them.
Grant Isaac: Yeah, you know, there are elements of the Westinghouse business that are pretty high touch. You know, when we think about the core of the business, which we define as nuclear fuel and operating plant systems, you know, as well as the new build, there's a lot of offices, a lot of engagement, and a pretty high touch that goes on advancing those kinds of contracts. And so, right now, when they're at the stage of developing new markets like they are for VVER fuel or developing new markets like expanding into BWR fuel or examining LEU Plus fuel, and even the question that Greg asked earlier about Springfields, you know, this is all captured in increased activity running through that line, and, of course, the support required to advance new builds, whether that's AP1000s, AP300s, or Avinci And then just going forward, is that 2023 level, well, at least for the proportion of 23 that you guys have reported, is that a fair level going forward for 24, 25? Yeah, it's Heidi here.
Speaker Change: There are elements of the Westinghouse business that are pretty high touch when we think about the core of the business, which we define as nuclear fuel and operating plant systems.
Lawson Winder: As well as the new build there is a lot of offices a lot of engagement and a pretty high touch that goes on advancing those kind of contracts and so.
Lawson Winder: Right now when they are at the stage of developing new markets like they are for <unk> fuel or developing new markets like expanding into BW or fuel or examining <unk> plus fuel and even the question that Greg asked earlier about Springfield.
Lawson Winder: This is all captured in our increased activity running through that line and of course, the support required to advance new builds whether that's AP 1000, AP three hundreds or even <unk>. So a bit of a higher touch business, then what cameco is accustomed to but but totally appropriate given the.
Lawson Winder: Position that westinghouse's, Ed and their ability to capture the tailwind in the nuclear industry as well.
Lawson Winder: Okay.
Lawson Winder: And then just going forward is that 2023 level that well at least for the proportion of 23 that you guys have reported is that a fair level going forward for 'twenty four 'twenty five.
Speaker Change: Yes, it's hard to hear I would say that.
Heidi Shockey: I would say that they're a pretty stable business, and maybe I would just add to what Grant said in terms of the other pieces, that that's really recognizing the fixed costs. That is, all the costs that aren't directly related to operations, so it's maybe broader than just kind of G&A. Thank you very much. Now for my follow-up question, I had actually wanted to ask about the conversion market as well, and Grant, you had expressed some concern in the investor call in December during investor day that perhaps prices were sort of getting near a top, but prices have continued to rise since then. Have you changed your view on that at all?
Speaker Change: There are pretty stable business and maybe I would just add to what grant said in terms of the other piece is that.
Speaker Change: That's really recognizing the fixed costs like that is all the costs that aren't directly related to operation. So.
Speaker Change: Let's maybe broader than just kind of G&A.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Speaker Change: Thank you very much for.
Speaker Change: For my follow up question I had actually wanted to ask you about the conversion market as well in grant you had expressed some.
Speaker Change: Our review on.
Speaker Change: Investor call in December during the Investor day that perhaps prices, we're sort of getting near the top but I mean prices have continued to rise since then.
Speaker Change: Have you changed your view at all do you think prices can continue.
Lawson Winder: Do you think prices can continue to rise higher, or are, in fact, we getting to a level where prices are sort of as high as they might go? Yeah, well, my comment earlier, Lawson, about Cameco not calling peak demand or peak pricing, I was referring to uranium, but perhaps in conversion as well. I mean, this market has not really reckoned yet with a couple of big risks. And one of them is obviously the risk that not only will the legislative efforts to restrict Russian supplies in Western markets become codified into law, but the risk that there's a Russian retaliation, that would be a very constructive environment for conversion, because remember that the Russian enrichment service shows up attached to something. It shows up in a cylinder that already has the uranium, already has the conversion.
Speaker Change: Continue to rise higher or are in fact, we getting to a level where prices are sort of as high as they might go.
Speaker Change: Well my comment earlier loss at about chemicals, not calling peak demand or peak pricing I was referring to uranium but but.
Speaker Change: <unk> and conversion as well I mean, this market has not really wreck and yet with a couple of big risks and one of them is obviously the risk that not only does.
Speaker Change: The legislative efforts to restrict Russian supplies in western markets become codify into law, but the risk that theres, a Russian retaliation that.
Speaker Change: That would be.
Speaker Change: Very constructive environment for conversion, because remember that Russian enrichment service shows up attached to something it shows up in our cylinder that already has the rainy or already has the conversion. So that will continue to add pressure to the conversion side of the business and then of course this market I don't think really.
Grant Isaac: So that will continue to add pressure to the conversion side of the business. And then, of course, this market, I don't think, really appreciates how difficult restarting production can be, whether it's a uranium asset or whether it's a conversion asset. I think a lot of folks are just assuming these things are easy, and they build in a perfection scenario.
Speaker Change: <unk> at how difficult restarting production can be whether it's at uranium asset whether its a conversion asset.
Speaker Change: I think a lot of folks are just assuming these things are easy and they build in our perfection scenario. So between those two really big risks that.
Grant Isaac: So between those two really big risks, that there's a ban on Russian material that the Russians actually react to by saying, OK, well, you can't have it today, as well as the reality that's going to set in, that all these big promises about new supply, whether it's on the uranium side or the conversion side, are just going to take longer. That's further price formation in the industry that needs to come. It's why we don't want to call them a top.
Speaker Change: There is a there is a ban on Russian material that the Russians actually react to by saying, Okay, well you can't have it today as well as the reality, that's going to set and that all of these big promises about new supply whether it's whether it's on the uranium side or the conversion side are just going to take longer that's further price formation.
Speaker Change: <unk> in the industry that needs to come it's why we don't want to call. It top it's why we don't want to rush and secure all the contracts for conversion.
Grant Isaac: It's why we don't want to rush and secure all the contracts for conversion that would sell out Port Hope or encourage Westinghouse to do that for Springfield. There's more to come in this market. We've seen this story before.
Speaker Change: With sellout port hope or encourage Westinghouse to do that for Springfield Theres more to come to this market. We've seen this story before.
Lawson Winder: Now is the time to remain patient and let that price discovery unfold. Thank you all very much. Thank you, Lawson. Please note, we are at less than a 10 minute mark for questions, and any we don't get to can reach out to the IR team. Thank you. The next question comes from Alexandra Pierce of BMO. Please go ahead. Great, thank you. Good morning, all.
Speaker Change: Now is the time to remain patient and let that price discovery unfold.
Speaker Change: Thank you all very much.
Lawson Winder: Thank you Lawson.
Lawson Winder: Please note we are less than a 10 minute mark for questions and then we don't get too can reach out to the IR team. Thank you.
Lawson Winder: The next question comes from Alexander Pearce from BMO. Please go ahead.
Alexander Pearce: Great. Thank you good morning.
Alexandra Pierce: So I just wondered if you could build on some of the market commentary you've made and, in particular, just the changes that you've seen so far this year and, particularly, what's changed in terms of your discussions with utilities since the updates and Kazatomprom last week. Yeah, we've seen a market that has behaved exactly like we told you it was going to, Alex. When the market begins to enter a security of supply cycle, actually, the importance of the spot market goes down, and the importance of the term market goes up. Now look at the data.
Alexander Pearce: Wondering if you could build them from the market commentary you've made and in particular just the.
Alexander Pearce: Changes that you've seen so far this year and particularly what's change.
Alexander Pearce: James in terms of your discussions with utilities updates because that's important last week.
Alexander Pearce: Sure.
Speaker Change: Yes.
James: We've seen a market that has behaved exactly like we told you it was going to Alex when when the market begins to enter a security of supply cycle actually the importance of the spot market goes down and the importance of the term market goes up and look at the data the spot market was smaller in 2023 then it.
Grant Isaac: The spot market was smaller in 2023 than it was in 2022, so utilities focus less on the spot market; they focus more on the term market. It goes back to my earlier point about why we don't try to sell stuff in the spot market. It's thinly traded, and it's non-fundamental discretionary demand.
Speaker Change: In 2022, so utilities focused less on the spot market. They focus more on the term market goes back to my earlier point about why we don't try to sell stuff into the spot market. It's thinly traded it's non fundamental discretionary demand. So as utilities are shifting over we're seeing a market that hit about 100.
Grant Isaac: So as utilities are shifting over, we're seeing a market that hit about 160 million pounds in terms of term contracting. It might be easy to conclude we're at the replacement rate, Alex, but I would just say we're not quite there yet because there were two very, very big contracts that went through the market. One that Cameco had with Ukraine and one that KazAtomProm had with the Chinese.
Speaker Change: 60 million pounds of term contracting.
Speaker Change: It might be easy to conclude were at replacement rate, Alex but I would just say, we're not quite there yet because there were two very very big contracts that went through the market one mechanical had with Ukraine, and one that <unk> had with with the Chinese if you back those out and asked on a distributed basis across all markets.
Grant Isaac: If you back those out and ask on a distributed basis across all markets, are we at the replacement rate? The answer is no. And so the good news is we're in the early innings of a security of supply contracting cycle. We haven't yet hit a distributed replacement rate. And we've never been at this stage of the cycle at these prices before, which is why we want to continue to have that exposure going forward. But some of the common characteristics, tenors, continue to go up. Utilities coming to the market for security of supply are looking for requirements covered on a longer term basis. Tenors are going out.
Speaker Change: We at replacement rate the answer is no and so the good news is we're in the early innings of a security of supply contracting cycle, we haven't yet hit a distributed replacement rate and we've never been at this stage of the cycle at these prices before which is why we want to continue to have that exposure going forward, but.
Speaker Change: Some of the common characteristics tenders continue to go up utilities coming to the market for security of supply are looking for requirements covered on a longer term basis tenders are going out volumes are going up not just because more years are being added but because utilities are taking a bigger bite out of each of their requirements contracts and then of course.
Grant Isaac: Volumes are going up, not just because more years are being added, but because utilities are taking a bigger bite out of each of their requirements contracts. And then, of course, time frames are going out. There are utilities who, Alex, are really well covered for the rest of this decade. They're now worried about the next decade, and they're starting to look to contract into that window as well.
Speaker Change: Timeframes are going out there are utilities, who Alex are really well covered for the rest of this decade. There now worried about the next decade and they are starting to look to contract into that window as well. So all of that very constructive for our view that the long term demand is building.
Alexandra Pierce: So all of that is very constructive for a view that long-term demand is building, not peaking, but building, and that what we want to remain is very disciplined to capture as much of that price discovery as we can. Great, thanks Grant. And then Tim, you mentioned in your comments that you have the ability to bring forward some of those purchase agreements if required. Are you able to kind of quantify if indeed that did happen for this year for guidance and how much you've kind of brought forward from future years into this year in these purchases? Sorry, Alex, it's Grant again.
Speaker Change: Not peaking but building and that what we wanted to remain as very disciplined to capture as much of that price discovery as we can.
Speaker Change: Great. Thanks, Greg and then Tim you mentioned in your comments.
Speaker Change: City to bring forward some of those purchase agreements.
Speaker Change: If required.
Speaker Change: You're able to kind of quantify if indeed that did happen this year for guidance and how much you can pull forward from.
Tim: From future years into this year and as purchases.
Speaker Change: Yes.
Speaker Change: Sorry, Alex.
Greg Barnes: Yes, it's Greg again.
Grant Isaac: We are our plan in the outlook table was the plan all along on that $4 $7 million. So we we have that as an option to exercise more of those long term purchase required. If we want it's why the disclosure on market purchases is up to 2 million pounds that would.
Grant Isaac: Our plan in the Outlook table was the plan all along on that 4.7 million, so we have that as an option to exercise more of those long-term purchase requirements if we want. That's why the disclosure on market purchases is up to 2 million pounds. That would be one of the levers why it's not a hard 2 million pounds, because we may not buy it in the spot market. We don't have to, but if it makes sense for us, we will.
Tim Gitzel: One of the levers why it's not a hard 2 million past because we may not buy in the spot market, we don't have to but if it makes sense for us we will.
Grant Isaac: Okay, thank you. Thanks a lot. The next question comes from Brian MacArthur of Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Speaker Change: Okay. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Thanks, Alex.
Greg Barnes: Yes.
Speaker Change: The next question comes from Brian Macarthur Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Brian Macarthur: Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. It goes back to last question. So in this table, and I appreciate now that you've given the break. Two things, do you assume that you get your NCCHI purchases every year because, right now, we're not sure what we're going to get and again those are profitable pounds once you do the equity component. If not, how do you balance for that because, again, the question is you could be getting four to five million profitable pounds from Incai and my third question on that is, Thanks. Brian, let's just start with, yes, the table assumes that the volumes expected from NCAI in 2024 arrive, but of course, as we saw in 2023, there can sometimes be timing differences. We got about two-thirds of NCAI's 2023 volumes in 2023, the remainder in early 2024. This is something we can deal with as Cameco because we have other sources of supply. We have other mines. We have our inventory. We have all of the levers we've already been talking about.
Speaker Change: Hey, good morning, and thank you for taking my question. It goes back to the last question. So in this table and I appreciate you've given the breakout.
Brian Macarthur: Sure thing do you assume that you get your API purchases every year.
Brian Macarthur: Because again, you're also right.
Brian Macarthur: Right now we're not sure what we're going to get and again those are biggest add profitable pounds. Once you do the equity comp.
Speaker Change: <unk>.
Brian Macarthur: If not how do you balance for that because again. The question is you could be getting $4 million to $5 million profitable accounts remained high and my third question on that is I can't remember, you're getting 50% or 40% of the joint venture now under that agreement.
Speaker Change: <unk>.
Alexandra Pierce: Brian, Let's just start with yes, the table assumes that the volumes.
Brian Macarthur: Expected from <unk> in 2024 arrive but of course as we saw in 2023, there can be sometimes timing differences. We got about two thirds of <unk> 2023 volumes in 2023, the remainder early 2024.
Brian Macarthur: This is something we can deal with as cameco, because we have other sources of supply we have other mines, we have our inventory we have all of the levers we've already been talking about this is actually a much much bigger problem for the front end of the nuclear fuel cycle, because it's close to 50% of the global production of uranium that isn't.
Grant Isaac: This is actually a much, much bigger problem for the front end of the nuclear fuel cycle because it's close to 50% of the global production of uranium that isn't arriving when it needs to arrive in Western markets. So for Cameco, it's something we can plan for, something we can deal with. We'll eventually get those pounds, and we can deal with the time issue associated with them. The overarching assumption is, yes, we're going to receive them. If we don't, we'll manage. Grant, I'd just add to that that the sharing is 60-40 once you reach the nameplate capacity of 4,000 tons per year, which is just over 10 million pounds. We've never hit that peak yet, and over the last number of years, we've basically received as a share of production what we would get at 40% of 10 million, so around 3.3 million pounds.
Grant Isaac: Arriving what it needs to arrive at western markets. So for Cameco, It's something we can plan for something we can deal with we eventually get those pounds and we can deal with a time issue associated with the.
Grant Isaac: But overall the overarching assumption is yes, we're going to assume that if we don't we'll manage.
Speaker Change: Grant I would just add to that.
Grant Isaac: The sharing is 60 40 once you reach the nameplate capacity.
Grant Isaac: 4000 tons per year, which is just over 10 million pounds, we've never hit that peak, yet and over the last number of years we've base.
Grant Isaac: Basically we received as a share of production what would what we would get that 40% of $10 million, so around $2 3 million pounds.
Speaker Change: Great. Thanks, I was just going to be really clear you also 18 months and Scott.
Grant Isaac: Great, thanks. But just, just so I can be really clear, you also, as you mentioned, got last year's ship. I'm concerned about blasting your shipments from ink, guys, so... We presumably have those panels in Inventory and the other ones in the Canadian Port. So, would you not feel pretty comfortable that you're going to have a lot of Inca pounds?
Grant Isaac: Last year.
Grant Isaac: <unk> of last year's shipments remained guy so you presumably have those pounds.
Grant Isaac: In inventory and the other ones in the Canadian Port. So we do not feel pretty comfortable that youre going to have a lot of <unk> pound.
Grant Isaac: Well this year, because they've already arrived and thats embedded in those numbers, yes, sorry, I hope my comments Orange, if werent viewed as being I'm confident we're very confident that that supply is going to show up and if there are timing challenges we deal with it within our inventory within our other sources of supply so so extreme confidence.
Grant Isaac: I hope my comments weren't viewed as being unconfident. We are very confident that that supply is going to show up, and if there are timing challenges, we deal with them within our inventory, within our other sources of supply. So, extreme confidence.
Brian Macarthur: Great, that's helpful. It's just these pounds are very profitable, so it affects the finances depending on when they come in. Indeed. Yep. Okay. Thank you very much. T.R.A.
Speaker Change: Yeah, Great that's helpful.
Brian Macarthur: These pounds at very profitable so it affects the financing depending on when they come in.
Brian Macarthur: Indeed.
Speaker Change: Okay. Thank you very much and one quick last question sorry.
Brian Macarthur: I don't want to go back to this at all because I sort of figured it's hopefully dealt with, but I do see you have to put some more money aside again. So we've done 2017. Does that mean they can do 18 and 19?
CRA: CRA I don't want to go back, but it's at Orca.
Brian Macarthur: Hopefully dealt with but I do see you have to.
Brian Macarthur: Put some more money aside again, so we've done 2017 does that mean that you can do 18 and 19 you might have to put money aside this year.
Sean Quinn: You might have to put money aside this year, or letters of recognition. I was going to say thanks for the question, Brian, but anyway, I'll pass it over to John. Sure, we did have the reassessments for 2017, and we put, I think, $70 million aside, which we expect we'll have to post in the form of a letter of credit. The problem does diminish. The problem with the CRA continues, but the size of the problem diminishes over 2018, 2019, 2020, as the pounds that were sold through our offshore trading structure diminish. So I don't have the exact size of the diminution in front of me, but it does get smaller as we look forward.
Speaker Change: On our.
Sean Quinn: Syed.
John: I was going to say thanks for the question, Brian, but I assure you.
Sean Quinn: Brian I'll pass it over to John.
Sean Quinn: Sure.
Sean Quinn: We did have to reassess in 2017, and we've put I think $70 million aside.
Speaker Change: Which we expect will have to postpone the appointment of a letter of credit.
Sean Quinn: The.
Sean Quinn: Problem does diminish.
Sean Quinn: The problem with the CRA continues but the size of the problem diminishes over 2018 2019 2020.
Sean Quinn: As the pounds that were sold through our offshore trading structure diminish.
Sean Quinn: I don't have the exact size of the diminishment in front of me, but it does get smaller as we look forward.
Speaker Change: Great. Thanks, that's very helpful. Thanks, John.
Sean Quinn: Right, that's very helpful. Thank you, Brian. This concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Tim Jetzel for any closing remarks. Well, thank you, Operator, and thank you to everyone who joined today. As Rochelle noted, if you have detailed follow-up questions related to the 2023 results or any questions that we didn't get to today, please send those in to us, and we're happy to address them directly. You know, we continue to believe that Cameco remains the best way to invest in the recovery of the nuclear fuel cycle and the positive momentum behind nuclear energy. With 35 years of experience in this market, we've built a strong reputation as a proven and reliable supplier with a diversified production portfolio.
Speaker Change: Thank you Brian.
Tim Jetzel: This concludes the question and answer session I would like to turn the conference back over to Tim Jensen for any closing remarks.
Sean Quinn: Okay.
Tim Jetzel: Well, thank you operator, and thank you to everyone who joined today as.
Tim Jetzel: As Michelle noted if you have detailed follow up questions related to the 2023 results or any questions that we didn't get to today. Please send those into us and we're happy to address them directly.
Sean Quinn: We continue to believe that cameco remains the best way to invest in the recovery of the nuclear fuel cycle and positive momentum behind nuclear energy.
Tim Jetzel: With 35 years of experience in this market, we built a strong reputation as a proven and reliable supplier with a diversified production portfolio portfolio that provides us with the flexibility to work with our customers to ensure they maintain access to our reliable suppliers to satisfy their ongoing fuel requirements.
Sean Quinn: A portfolio that provides us with the flexibility to work with our customers to ensure they maintain access to our reliable supplies to satisfy their ongoing fuel requirements. The world has put a priority on achieving net-zero carbon emissions in the decades to come, and it's become clear that there's no net-zero without nuclear. And I would go a step further and say, in fact, there's no nuclear power without Cameco and Westinghouse, so it's also becoming clear that there's no net-zero without Cameco.
Sean Quinn: World has put a priority on achieving net zero carbon emissions in the decades to come and it's become clear that there is no net zero without nuclear and I would go a step further and say in fact, there is no nuclear without chemical and Westinghouse. So it is also becoming clear that there is no net zero without cameco. We believe we have the right strategy to achieve our.
Tim Gitzel: We believe we have the right strategy to achieve our vision of energizing the clean air world, and we'll do so in a manner that reflects our values. So thank you everyone again for joining us today. Stay safe and stay healthy in 2024 Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at any time. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day, www.globalonenessproject.org,
Tim Gitzel: Vision of energizing, a cleaner world and we will do so in a manner that reflects our values. So.
Tim Gitzel: So thanks, everyone again for joining us today stay safe and stay healthy in 2024. Thank you.
Tim Gitzel: This concludes today's conference call you may disconnect. Your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.
Tim Gitzel: Yeah.
Tim Gitzel: [music].