Q4 2023 BP PLC Earnings Call

Speaker: Pinto is a simpler, more focused, and higher-value company, providing energy solutions for our customers who are asking us to help, contributing to the energy transition, all the while remaining pragmatic and adapting in line with demand. As you saw with the update to our strategy this time 12 months ago, So what does it practically mean to transition from IOC to IEC? Over a hundred years ago, we started to create our first value chain, oil fields attached to refineries with products sold in service stations and airports. We're now introducing biofuels, sustainable aviation fuel, and biodiesel to customers. At the same time, we're lowering the carbon footprint of our plants by using lower carbon hydrogen and electricity for power. Why?

More focused on higher value company.

Providing energy solutions for our customers, who are asking us to help.

Contributing to the energy transition all the while remaining pragmatic and adapting in line with demand.

As you saw with the update to our strategy. This time 12 months ago.

So what does it prep practically mean to transition from IFC to IEC.

Over 100 years ago, we.

We started to create our first value chain oilfields attached to refineries with products sold in service stations and airports.

We're now introducing biofuels sustainable aviation fuel and biodiesel to the customer.

At the same time, we're lowering the carbon footprint of our plants by using lower carbon hydrogen and electricity for power why.

Because we can deliver higher margins with lower emissions.

Speaker: because we can deliver higher margins with lower emissions. Over 60 years ago, we started to create the second value chain: natural gas fields, linked to domestic pipeline systems, and eventually liquefaction plants. We're now introducing biogas, carbon sequestration, and lower carbon electricity to the customer. Why?

Over 60 years ago, we started to create the second value chain.

Natural gas fields linked to domestic pipeline systems, and eventually liquefaction plants.

We're now introducing biogas carbon sequestration and lower carbon electricity to the customer why.

Speaker: Because we can deliver higher margins with lower emissions. And over the past four years, we've been accelerating our efforts to create a third value chain, lower carbon power and hydrogen. For example, using solar or wind to create lower carbon hydrogen to provide to our plants and customers, and using those electrons to service the growing electricity demand through our EV charging business.

Because we can deliver higher margins with lower emissions.

And over the past four years, we've been accelerating our efforts to create a third value chain.

Lower carbon power and hydrogen for.

For example, using solar wind to create lower carbon hydrogen to provide to our plants and customers.

And using those electrons to service the growing electricity demand.

Our EV charging business.

Why.

Speaker: Because we can deliver higher margins with lower emissions. All of these chains are then optimized by our fantastic trading organization, driving superior returns compared to what a pure play can deliver, and the more we can interlink them, the more we can expand the return. Over the past four years, we've delivered, on average, around a 4% uplift to group return on average capital employed across these chains through these efforts. We think this is sector-leading. Now, across all these chains, we always have choice about how much we produce ourselves in the upstream or purchase from other producers. That equally applies to oil. Natural Gas and Renewables

Because we can deliver higher margins with lower emissions.

All of these chains are then optimize by our fantastic trading organization driving superior returns to what a pure play can deliver.

And the more we can interlinked them the more we can expand the returns.

Over the past four years, we've delivered on average around a 4% uplift a group return on average capital employed across these change through these efforts.

We think that's a sector leading.

Now across all of these chains, we've always have choice about how much we produce ourselves in the upstream or purchase from other producers that equally applies to oil.

Natural gas and renewables.

Speaker: The magic is getting that mix right inside our business lines to optimize returns and trading optionality. The most important part is to ensure absolute discipline in investing our scarce capital, ensuring we hit our return thresholds across these value chains. That's what an IEC is to me, investing in today's energy system while building out tomorrow's. Lower Carbon, Higher Margin. Now it's four years in.

The magic is getting that mix right inside our business lines to optimize returns and training optionality.

Most important part is to ensure absolute discipline in investing our stairs capital ensuring we hit our returns thresholds across these value chains.

That's what an IAC is to me investing in today's energy system.

While building out tomorrows.

Lower carbon higher margin.

Now, it's four years and we've learned a lot and adapted along the way.

Speaker: We've learned a lot and adapted along the way. It's made us stronger, more confident in the growth we have coming, and more convinced about the value we can create. I'm passionate about the strategy as I think there are only a few companies globally that can do this at scale. And as we deliver. We will grow the value of BP, and that's what I'm focused on, growing the value of BP. So what should you expect from us moving forward? As always, let's start with safety. We're making good progress, but there's always more we can do. Bringing safety is very important to me, and it's very personal. Four generations of my family have worked in the sector. My great-grandfather actually died in an industrial accident.

You made a stronger more confident in the growth we have coming.

And more convinced about the value we can create I'm passionate about this strategy because I think there are only a few companies globally that can do this at scale and.

And as we deliver.

We will grow the value of BP.

And that's what I'm focused on growing the value of B P. So what should you expect from US moving forward as always lets start with safety.

We're making good progress, but there's always more we can do.

Delivering safety is very important to me and it's very personal.

Speaker Change: For generations of my family have worked in the sector. My Great grandfather actually died in an industrial accident and I can remember my father teaching me about the dangers of hydrogen sulfide and a natural gas field as a child.

Speaker: And I can remember my father teaching me about the dangers of hydrogen sulfide in a natural gas field as a child. We work in a high-hazard industry, and every day, we must make sure everyone comes home safe. That's our first priority. The past few years have been about generating options. Now we will focus our efforts on the key areas where we can be competitive, and we'll simplify the business. We'll pursue this in every way you can imagine, from origination to our nerves.

Speaker Change: We work in a high hazard industry and every day, we must make sure everyone comes home safe that's our first priority.

Speaker Change: The past few years have been about generating options.

Speaker Change: Now we will focus our efforts on the key areas, where we can be competitive and will simplify the business.

Speaker Change: We will pursue this in every way you can imagine from origination to our narrative.

Speaker: We will be relentlessly value and returns focused in our investments, focused on growing value and returns from our oil and gas portfolio, leveraging our high-quality resource base and driving efficiency and reliability, as we laid out in our update in Denver last year, and growing value from our transition businesses as we invest with discipline in the pipeline we have developed and by creating even more value through integration. We will continue to be pragmatic in our approach to how we navigate this energy transition.

Speaker Change: We will be relentlessly value and returns focused with our investments focused on growing value and returns from our oil and gas portfolio.

Speaker Change: Leveraging our high quality resource base, and driving efficiency and reliability as we laid out in our update in Denver last year.

Speaker Change: And growing value for our transition businesses as.

Speaker Change: As we invest with discipline.

In the pipeline we have developed.

Speaker Change: And by creating even more value through integration.

Speaker Change: We will continue to be pragmatic in our approach to how we navigate this energy transition.

Speaker: Yes, we want to help scale lower-carbon energy value chains and position ourselves to profit from them, but we must remain flexible, adjusting in line with changing demands and societal needs, as he saw suit in February last year. And we have a tremendous team delivering this, and I want to ensure we place engineering, science, and technology, both digital and physical, at the heart of the company. I've seen first-hand the impact and possibilities of innovation and digital solutions, including across the upstream, in expanding our customer offer and improving our back-office processes. And some of you saw this for yourself in Denver.

Speaker Change: Yes, we want to help scale lower carbon energy value chains and position ourselves to profit from them, but we must remain flexible adjusting inline with changing demands of societal needs as he sauce too.

Speaker Change: In February last year.

Speaker Change: And we have a tremendous team delivering this and I want to ensure we place engineering science and technology, both digital and physical at the heart of the company.

Speaker Change: I've seen firsthand the impact and possibilities of innovation and digital solutions, including across the upstream and expanding our customer offer and improving our back office processes.

Speaker Change: And some of you saw this for yourself in Denver, what's really exciting we see potential to do even more to transform our businesses.

Speaker: What's really exciting is that we see potential to do even more to transform our business. We've been working with AI, including machine learning and computer vision models, for more than five years, and we have over 100 live AI use cases across the business now.

Speaker Change: We've been working with AI, including machine learning and computer vision models for more than five years and we have over 100 live AI case use cases across the business now these provide an enormous opportunity to help us capture increased margin and decrease spending and finally, you can expect to see us continuing to make full use of our creative commercial muscle.

Speaker: These provide an enormous opportunity to help us capture increased margin and decrease spending. And finally, you can expect to see us continuing to make full use of our creative commercial muscle to optimize how we invest and create value, with AccurBP and LightSourceBP providing excellent examples for the future. So to sum up, the destination is unchanged.

Speaker Change: Or optimize how we invest and create value with Aker BP in light source be paid providing excellent examples for the future.

Speaker Change: So to sum up the destination is unchanged.

Speaker: But we're going to deliver it as a simpler, more focused, and higher value, unlocking the full potential of our assets and our people, and growing the value of BP. So let's turn to 2023 and what was a year of continuing delivery. Starting with safety, we have seen improvements in our safety performance. Reducing our Tier 1 and Tier 2 process safety. But we have more to do. We need to keep improving to eliminate all Tier 1 process safety events.

Speaker Change: But we're going to deliver as a simpler more focused and higher value company unlocks.

Speaker Change: Unlocking the full potential of our assets and our people and.

And growing the value of BP.

Speaker Change: So, let's turn to 'twenty twenty-three in what was a year of continuing delivery.

Speaker Change: Starting with safety, we have seen improvements in our safety performance.

Reducing our tier one and tier two process safety events.

Speaker Change: But we have more to do we need to keep improving to eliminate all tier one process safety events.

Speaker: Continuing to apply OMS and constantly reinforcing and building on our operating culture across the business. Next to our business performance, where we have delivered resilient operational and financial performance in 2023. Adjusted Debit was $43.7 billion. Operating cash flow was $32 billion. Net debt was reduced to $20.9 billion.

Speaker Change: Continuing to apply our masks and constantly reinforcing and building on our operating culture across the business.

Speaker Change: Next to our business performance, where we have to observe delivered resilient operational and financial performance in 2023.

Speaker Change: <unk> EBITDA was $43 $7 billion.

Speaker Change: Operating cash flow was $32 billion net debt reduced to $20 9 billion and average return on capital employed was 18, 1%.

Speaker: An average return on capital employed was $18.1 billion. We are executing our strategy with discipline across our oil and gas business and our transition growth engines, as I'll come to in a minute, and we're delivering competitive shareholder distribution. We grew our dividend per ordinary share by 10% last year. Today, we announced a further $1.75 billion of share buybacks, bringing our total buybacks announced from 2023 excess cash flow to $6.5 billion. We have seen strong momentum in our operational and strategic delivery in 2023. Starting with oil and gas, our upstream production grew by 2.6%. We started four major projects that we expect to contribute more than 50% towards our target of 200 MBOED by 2025. BPX production grew by 13%, surpassing 400 MBOAD in the fourth quarter.

We are executing our strategy with discipline across our oil and gas business and our transition growth engines as I'll come to in a minute.

Speaker Change: And we're delivering competitive shareholder distributions.

Speaker Change: We grew our dividend per ordinary share by 10% last year today, we announced a further 1.75 billion of share buybacks, bringing our total buybacks announced from 'twenty to 'twenty three surplus cash flow to $6 5 billion.

Speaker Change: We've seen strong momentum in our operational and strategic delivery in 2023.

Speaker Change: Starting with oil and gas our upstream production grew by 2.6%. We started up for major projects that we expect to contribute more than 50% towards our target of 200 Mbo a day by 2025.

Speaker Change: The PX production grew by 13%, surpassing 400 Mbo a day in the fourth quarter we.

Speaker: We managed base decline between 3% to 5% supported by high return investments in new well delivery and well work, and in refining, availability was over 96% for the year. Our LNG supply portfolio increased by 20% to around 23 million tonnes per annum, largely driven by coral and free-pollination. In addition, we delivered 10 million tons per annum of incremental, short- and mid-term merchant volume. Additionally, we completed Atlantic restructuring, enabling the next wave of projects in Trinidad and securing long-term LNG equity. We have access to 44 exploration blocks in the Gulf of Mexico, Canada, Brazil, and deepwater Trinidad.

Speaker Change: We managed base decline between 3% to 5% supported by high return investments in new well delivery and well work and then refining availability was over 96% for the year.

Speaker Change: Our LNG supply portfolio increased by 20% to around 23 million tonnes per annum, largely driven by coral and Freeport.

Speaker Change: In addition, we delivered 10 million tonnes per annum of incremental short and midterm merchant volumes.

Speaker Change: We completed Atlantic restructuring, enabling the next wave of projects in Trinidad and securing long term LNG equity offtake.

Speaker Change: We accessed 44 exploration blocks in Gulf of Mexico, Canada, Brazil, and deepwater Trinidad.

Speaker: Our unit production cost was around $6 per barrel of oil equivalent, in line with our 2025 target, and proudly, under AIM4, we met our first goal of deploying our methane measurement approach across all our existing major operated upstream oil and gas assets by the end of 2020. A very important model Turning to our transition growth engines and bioenergy, we increased our biofuels production by 18% year-on-year and biogas supply volumes by 80% year-on-year, reflecting the uplift from our cash. In convenience, we delivered 60% growth year-on-year in gross margin, including the contribution of travel centers in Americas. Excluding travel centers, we've maintained strong underlying growth of 9% year-on-year, building on the average 9% per annum over the previous three years despite recessionary forces. In A.V. charging, we are rapidly building scale and demonstrating profitability in Germany and our J.V. in China.

Speaker Change: Our unit production cost was around $6 per barrel of oil and oil equivalent in line with our 2025 target.

Speaker Change: And proudly under aimed for are we met our first goal of deploying our methane measurement approach across all of our existing major operated upstream oil and gas assets by the end of 2023.

Speaker Change: Very important milestone.

Speaker Change: Turning to our transition growth engines in bioenergy, we increased our biofuels production by 18% year on year, and biogas supply volumes by 80% year on year, reflecting the uplift from our Cao.

Speaker Change: In convenience, we delivered 60% growth year on year, and gross margin, including the contribution of travel centers of Americas, Excluding travel centers, we've maintained strong underlying growth of 9% year on year building on the average 9% per annum over the previous figures despite recessionary forces.

Speaker Change: And EV charging we are rapidly building scale and demonstrating profitability in Germany in our JV in China.

Speaker Change: Energy was sold rose by 150% year on year supported by a 35% increase in the number of EV charge points and increasing utilization.

Speaker: Energy sold rose by 150% year-on-year, supported by a 35% increase in the number of EV charge points and increasing utilization. Importantly, our charging customers in the UK are spending more in our shops than our fuel customers. This gives us further confidence in our fast-on-the-go business model. We grew our hydrogen pipeline to 2.9 million tons per annum.

Speaker Change: Importantly, our charging customers in the U K are spending more in our shops and our fuel customers. This gives us further confidence in our fast on the go business model.

Speaker Change: We grew our hydrogen pipeline to $2 9 million tonnes per annum are focused this decade is on blue hydrogen and decarbonization of our refineries, while laying the foundation for green hydrogen production towards the end of the decade.

Speaker: Our focus this decade is on blue hydrogen and decarbonization of our refineries while laying the foundation for green hydrogen production towards the end of the decade. In renewables and power, we grew our renewables pipeline to 58.3 gigawatts net to BP, including the offshore wind award in Germany, light source BP's pipeline, and our onshore renewables projects supporting hydrogen. And we have agreed to take full ownership of LightSource BP, one of the top solar providers globally.

Speaker Change: In renewables and power, we grew our renewables pipeline to 58.3, Gigawatts net to BP, including the offshore Wind award in Germany light source be peace pipeline, and our onshore renewables projects supporting hydrogen in Australia.

Speaker Change: And we have agreed to take full ownership of light source BP one of the top solar providers globally, a fantastic business with a track record of delivering equity returns in the mid teens over the past few years with our developing flip model.

Speaker: A fantastic business with a track record of delivering equity returns in the mid-teens over the past few years with their develop and flip model. Integrating all of these are our trading and shipping businesses, as I described earlier. This is our strategy in action, and we have more to come in 24 and 25 that I'll describe later. But for now, let me hand over to Kate to take you through our fourth quarter results and our financial framework. Kate?

Speaker Change: Integrating all of these are trading and shipping businesses that I described earlier.

Speaker Change: This is our strategy in action and we have more to come in 'twenty four 'twenty five that I'll describe later, but for now let me hand over to Kate to take you through our fourth quarter results and our financial frame Kate.

Kate: Thanks, Murray. And good morning, everyone. I've been here once before, and I echo Murray's sentiment. It is an honor to speak with you as CFO. Let's turn to our results. BP's focus on delivery supported another quarter of strong underlying operational and financial performance. Our upstream production volume was 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, in line with our guidance. Gas and low-carbon energy production was around 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Kate: Thanks, Mary and good morning, everyone.

Kate: I've been here once before and I Echo <unk> sentiment. It is an honor to speak with U S F.

Kate: Let's turn to our results.

But if he is focused on delivery supported another quarter of strong underlying operational and financial performance.

Kate: Upstream production volume was $2 3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in line with our guidance.

Gas and low carbon energy production was around 900000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Speaker: The underlying financial result was around $500 million higher than the previous quarter, largely reflecting a strong gas marketing and trading result and Stronger Gas Realizations Driven by Higher Gas Prices. This was offset by a non-cash write-off of around $300 million, largely related to the exit from a production-sharing contract in Senegal and by lower production. In all, production was 1.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Kate: The underlying financial result was around $500 million higher than the previous quarter.

Kate: Largely reflecting a strong gas marketing and trading Miss out.

Kate: And stronger gas realizations, driven by higher gas prices.

Kate: This was offset by a noncash write off of around $300 million.

Kate: Largely related to the exit from our production sharing contracts in Senegal and by lower production.

Kate: And oil production and operations production was one 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Kate: The underlying result was around $400 million higher than the previous quarter, largely reflecting favorable price impacts in the Gulf of Mexico and the UAE.

Speaker: The underlying result was around $400 million higher than the previous quarter, largely reflecting favorable price lag impacts in the Gulf of Mexico and UAE. However, in customers and products, the underlying result was around $1.3 billion lower than the previous quarter. Looking at the businesses. In our customers' business, the underlying profit was $880 million, around $200 million higher than the previous quarter. The result benefited from stronger than expected fuel margins driven by a declining cost of supply and a one-off positive effect of around $100 million. However, this was partly offset by lower seasonal marketing volumes, as well as higher costs in support of our transition growth engines. In products, the underlying loss was $80 million compared to a $1.4 billion profit in the third quarter.

Kate: And customers and products. The underlying result was around $1.3 billion lower than the previous quarter.

Kate: Looking at the businesses and our customers' business the underlying profit was $880 million around 200 million higher than the previous quarter.

Kate: The result benefited from stronger than expected fuel margins driven by a declining cost of supply and a one off positive effect of around $100 million.

Kate: This was partly offset by lower seasonal marketing volumes as well as higher cost in support of our transition growth engines.

Kate: In products, the underlying loss was $18 million compared to $1 4 billion profit in the third quarter.

Speaker: The result reflects significantly lower industry refining margins, albeit with a smaller decrease in realized refining margins because of wider North American heavy crude oil differentials. In addition, as we guided, there was a higher level of turnaround activity, including a full-site turnaround at Castillon. The oil trading result was weak compared to the very strong result in the third quarter.

Kate: There was a reflects significantly lower industry refining margins.

Kate: With a smaller decrease in realized refining margins because of wider north American heavy crude oil differential.

Kate: In addition, as we guided there was a higher level of turnaround activity, including a full site turnaround at Castillo.

Kate: The old trading result was weak compared to the very strong result in the third quarter.

Kate: Results from our other businesses and corporate segment improved around $200 million on the previous quarter, largely JC foreign exchange gains and as we said before our results in this segment they vary quarter on quarter.

Speaker: Results from our other businesses and the corporate segment improved by around $200 million on the previous quarter, largely due to foreign exchange gains. And as we've said before, results in this segment do vary quarter on quarter. Reflecting these factors, we reported an underlying replacement cost profit before interest and taxes of $6.1 billion. After interest and taxes, we reported a group underlying replacement cost profit of $3 billion. Our underlying affected tax rate increased in the fourth quarter to 42%, mainly reflecting profit mix effects.

Kate: Reflecting these factors we reported an underlying replacement cost profit before interest and taxes of $6.1 billion.

Kate: After interest and taxes, we reported group underlying replacement cost profit of $3 billion.

Kate: Our underlying effective tax rate increased in the fourth quarter to 42%, mainly reflecting profit mix effect.

Speaker: And on an IFRS basis, we recorded net adverse adjusting items of $1.5 billion after tax, primarily related to impairments, reflecting changes in the group's price, discount rate, activity phasing, and other assumptions, although partially offset by fair value accounting effects. We also recorded inventory holding losses of $1.2 billion during the quarter.

Kate: And then I heard basis, we recorded net adverse adjusting items of $1 $5 billion after tax primarily related to impairments, reflecting changes in the great price discount rate activity phasing another assumption.

Kate: Partially offset by fair value accounting effect.

Kate: We also recorded inventory holding losses of $1.2 billion during the quarter.

Kate: Taking into account these items, we reported a headline profit of around $400 million.

Speaker: Taking into account these items, we reported a headline profit of around $400 million. Turning to cash flow and the balance sheet, operating cash flow was $9.4 billion in the fourth quarter, around $600 million higher than the third quarter.

Kate: Yeah.

Turning to cash flow and the balance sheet.

Kate: Operating cash flow was $9 $4 billion in the fourth quarter around 600 million higher than the third quarter.

Speaker: This was largely due to higher EBITDA and lower cash taxes compared to the third quarter, related to the timing of tax instalment payments. Operating cash flow included an underlying working capital release of £2.1 billion, largely associated with the delivery of LNG cargo. Capital expenditure was $4.7 billion, which is $1.1 billion higher than the third quarter. This brought full-year capex to $16.3 billion, which is broadly in line with our guidance. Diversion proceeds were $300 million, bringing the full year to $1.8 billion.

This is largely due to higher EBITDA and lower cash taxes compared to the third quarter.

Kate: Weighted to the timing of tax installment payments.

Kate: Operating cash flow included underlying working capital release of $2 1 billion largely associated with the delivery of LNG cargoes.

Kate: Capital expenditure was $4 7 billion, which is $1.1 billion higher than the third quarter.

Kate: Full year Capex to 16.3 billion, which is broadly in line with our guidance.

Kate: So that's what the price is the $300 million, bringing the full year to $1 8 billion slightly lower than our guidance.

Speaker: That's slightly lower than our guidance, and the 1.5 billion share buyback program we announced with the third quarter 2023 results was completed on the 2nd of February. Our balance sheet continues to strengthen, with net debt reducing to $20.9 billion, that's the lowest level for a decade.

Kate: And the one 5 billion share buyback program, we announced at the third quarter 2023 results was completed on the second of February.

Kate: Our balance sheet continues to strengthen with net debt reducing to $20.9 billion.

Kate: Lowest level for a decade.

Kate: As you saw this morning, we've announced a full two dividend of 7.27 cents per ordinary share an increase of 10% compared to last year.

Speaker: As you saw this morning, we've announced a 4Q dividend of 7.27 cents per ordinary share, an increase of 10% compared to last year. And, as Murray mentioned earlier, we announced 1.7 billion of share buybacks from 2023 surplus cash flow. As you can see on the chart, in total, we've now bought back over 16% of our issued share capital since we started our buyback program in 2021. To sum up, it's been another good year of delivering against our financial framework. Let me now take you through the guidance on our financial framework for the next two years. Our five priorities remain unchanged.

Kate: And as Mary mentioned earlier, we announced one 7 billion of share buybacks from 2023 surplus cash flow.

Kate: As you can see on the chart in total we've now bought back over 16% of our issued share capital since we started our buyback program in 2021.

Kate: To sum up it's been another good year of delivering against our financial frame.

Speaker Change: Let me now take you through the guidance and our financial frame for the next two years.

Speaker Change: Our five priorities remain unchanged.

Speaker: Given the strength of our underlying financial performance, the disciplined approach to strengthening the balance sheet over the last few years, and our confidence in our drive towards 2025, we now have the capacity to update our financial framework and provide clear guidance for the next two years through 2025. We're tightening our capital expenditure guidance. Enhancing our share buyback guidance, all while continuing to maintain a strong balance sheet and a strong investment grade credit rating. As Murray said earlier, we're focused on simplifying things where we can. Our first priority remains a resilient dividend accommodated within a balance point of $40 per barrel Brent 11 RMM and $3 Henry Hub, with capacity for an annual increase in the dividend per ordinary share of around 4% per annum at around $60 a barrel, subject, of course, to the board's discretion each quarter. Our second priority is a strong investment grade credit rating. We're targeting to further progress our credit metrics within the A-grade credit range through the cycle. We are not targeting a double A credit rating.

Speaker Change: Given the strength of our underlying financial performance the disciplined approach to strengthening the balance sheet over the last few years and our confidence and our drive towards 2025, we now have the capacity to update our financial frame and provide clear guidance for the next two years through 2025.

Speaker Change: We're tightening our capital expenditure guidance.

Speaker Change: And one thing I'll share buyback guidance.

Speaker Change: All while continuing to maintain a strong balance sheet and a strong investment grade credit rating.

Speaker Change: As Mary said earlier, we're focused on simplifying things, where we can.

Speaker Change: Our first priority remains a resilient dividend accommodated within our balance point to $40 per barrel, Brent 11, Our amendment $3 Henry hub.

Speaker Change: With capacity for an annual increase in the dividend per ordinary share of around 4% per annum at around $60, a barrel subject of course to the board's discretion each quarter.

Speaker Change: Our second priority is a strong investment grade credit rating.

Speaker Change: We're targeting to further progress our credit metrics within the a grade credit range through the cycle. We're.

Speaker Change: We're not targeting a double a credit rating.

Speaker Change: Third and fourth we plan to send us the discipline, we're driven by value and focused on delivering returns at least at our hurdle rates across our transition growth engines, and our oil gas and refining businesses.

Speaker: Third and fourth, we plan to invest with discipline. We're driven by value and focused on delivering returns at least at our hurdle rate across our transition growth engines and our oil, gas, and refining businesses. Capital expenditure is now expected to be around $16 billion per year through 2025, including in organics, and finally to share bye-bye.

Speaker Change: Capital expenditure is not expected to be around $16 billion per year through 2025, including inorganic.

Speaker Change: And finally to share buybacks.

Speaker: As I said, we're simplifying and enhancing our guidance. For the first half of 2024, we're committed to announcing $3.5 billion, that's $1.75 billion per quarter for each of 1Q and 2Q. This provides near-term predictability, and to be clear, this is in addition to the 1.75 billion share buyback we announced today for the fourth quarter of 2023. Over 2024 to 2025, subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating, our expectation, assuming current market conditions, is to announce at least $14 billion of share buybacks in total, and on a point forward basis, we're now committed to returning at least 80% of surplus cash This is an enhancement to our previous guidance of 60%, and it's an affordable range underpinned by two things. The strength of our balance sheet and our confidence in the future performance of our business.

Speaker Change: As I said, we're simplifying and enhancing our guidance.

Speaker Change: For the first half of 2024, we're committed to announcing $3 $5 billion, that's $1 75 billion per quarter for each of <unk> and T. K.

Speaker Change: This provides near term predictability.

Speaker Change: And to be clear. This is in addition to the 175 billion share buyback, we announced today for the fourth quarter of 2023.

Speaker Change: I have a 2024 to 25 subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating our expectation assuming current market conditions is to announce at least $14 billion of share buybacks in total.

Speaker Change: And on a point forward basis, we're not committed to returning at least 80% of surplus cash flow.

Speaker Change: This is an enhancement to our previous guidance of 60% and it's an affordable range underpinned by two things.

Speaker Change: The strength of our balance sheet.

Speaker Change: And our confidence in the future performance of our business.

Speaker Change: Let me now close with a summary of our forward looking guidance before I'll hand back to Mary.

Speaker: Let me now close with a summary of our forward-looking guidance before I hand over to Murray. This slide is a little detailed, but it summarises guidance for the full year ahead and the quarter ahead, and it's all in one place for you. I'm not going to read it line by line, but let me start just by highlighting some points in relation to the first quarter of 2024 compared to the fourth quarter. We expect upstream production to be higher. And customers, we expect seasonally lower volumes across most businesses and the absence of one-off positive impact; fuel margins remain sensitive to movements in the cost of supply. For products, we expect a significantly lower level of refinery turnaround activity.

Mary: This slide is a little detailed.

Mary: Summarized as guidance for the full year I had on the quarter ahead, and it's all in one place for you.

Mary: I'm not going to read it line by line, but let me start just by highlighting highlighting some point in relation to the first quarter 2024 compared to the fourth quarter.

Mary: We expect upstream production to be higher.

Mary: And customers, we expect seasonally lower volumes across most businesses and the absence of one off positive impact.

Mary: Fuel margins remain sensitive to movements in cost of supply.

Mary: And product specs that expect a significantly lower level of refinery turnaround activity.

Speaker: And in addition, we expect lower industry refining margins with a larger reduction in realized margins because of a narrower North American heavy crude differential. And with regard to the full year 2024, we expect this year's capital expenditure to be weighted to the first half, while our target of two to three billion dollars of divestment and other proceeds is expected to be weighted to the second half. And as Murray mentioned, our trading business has delivered on average an uplift of around 4% to Group Rwachi over the past four years. This slide forms part of some enhancements we're implementing to help the investment community. Starting with the first quarter of 2024, we also plan to introduce a regular trading statement to provide our investors with up-to-date financial performance insights. Today's announcement and our updates to the financial framework, together with our detailed guidance, we hope to provide more clarity for the market. And with that, I'll hand it back to Murray. Thanks, Kate.

Mary: And in addition, we expect lower industry refining margins with a larger reduction in realized margins because of narrow in north American heavy crude differential.

Mary: And with regards to the full year 2024, we expect the shift capital expenditure to be weighted to the first half while our target of $2 billion to $3 billion of divestments and other proceeds is expected to be weighted to the second half.

Mary: And as Larry mentioned, our trading business is delivered on average an uplift of around 4% to group or what changed over the past four years.

Mary: This slide forms part of some enhancements we are implementing to help the investment community.

Mary: Starting with the first quarter 2024, we also plan to introduce a regular trading statement to provide our investors with up to date financial performance insights.

Mary: Today's announcements and updates to the financial frame together with our detailed guidance. We hope provides more clarity for the market.

And with that I'll hand, it back to Mary.

Mary: Thanks Kate.

Speaker: Nice to have her as CFO. An upgrade on the previous guy. Over the next eight quarters,

Mary: Must have or a CFO.

Speaker Change: Upgrade on the previous Guy.

Speaker Change: Over the next eight quarters, we're focused on delivering our 2025 targets are drive to 2025.

Speaker: We're focused on delivering our 2025 targets, our drive to 2025. We are confident in achieving these for two reasons. First, we're clear on what businesses need to deliver. And second, we have strong momentum, as I've previously described. In oil and gas, we expect to start up six new major oil and gas projects, and bring online two new central processing facilities in the Permian and BPX. Checkmate in Crossroads

Mary: We are confident in achieving these for two reasons.

Mary: First we're clear on what businesses need to deliver and second we have strong momentum as I have previously described.

Mary: In oil and gas, we expect to start up six new island sticks, new major oil and gas projects.

Mary: Bring online two new central processing facilities in the Permian and be PX Checkmate <unk> crossroads loved their names.

Speaker: I love their name, and Equity in Merchant Supply to our LMG portfolio that underpins our 25 by 25 target. We'll continue to leverage our distinctive delivery model across project and operations to deliver plant reliability at around 96 percent, maintain base decline of three to five percent, and six dollars per barrel of oil equivalent unit production. In refining, we expect to drive greater competitiveness and value through our digitization and business improvement plans, including maintaining Solomon's First Quartile net cash margin. In bioenergy, we expect to more than double our biofuels co-processing volumes to around 20,000 barrels per day in 2025, investing in our advantage refining portfolio. In biogas, we started up five gas plants in 2023, and Archaea expects to start up between 15 to 20 new plants per year through 2025.

Mary: And equity and merchant supply to our LNG portfolio that underpins our twenty-five by 'twenty five target.

Mary: We will continue to leverage our distinctive delivery model across project and operations to deliver plant reliability at around 96% maintain base decline of 3% to 5% and $6 per barrel of oil equivalent unit production cost.

Mary: In refining, we expect to drive greater competitiveness and value through our Digitization and business improvement plans, including maintaining Solomon first quartile net cash cash margin.

In bioenergy, we expect to more than double our biofuels co processing volumes to around 20000 barrels per day in 2025 investing in our advantaged refining portfolio.

Mary: And biogas, we started about five gas plants in 2023, and our K expects to start up between 15 to 20, new plants per year through 2025.

Speaker: In convenience and EV charging, we plan to deliver EBITDA of more than $1.5 billion in 2025. In convenience, we're focused on the rollout of strategic convenience sites supported by customer offers, strategic partnerships, and digital investment, and integrating travel centers of America, realizing deal synergies and expect to grow EBITDA to around $800 million in 2025, with convenience being a significant contributor. In EV charging, we plan to grow energy sales across our four key markets and expect to deliver positive EBITDA in 2025. In Castrol, we expect to drive EBITDA through volume growth, cost efficiencies, and emerging new business areas. In Hydrogen and Renewables and Power, we will remain disciplined and focused on value creation, establishing the capabilities and foundations for scalable and integrated businesses in the decades to come.

Mary: And convenience and EV charging and we plan to deliver EBITDA of more than $1 5 billion in 2025 and.

Mary: In convenience, we are focused on the rollout of strategic convenience sites supported by customer offers strategic partnerships and digital investments and integrating travel centers of America, realizing deal synergies and expect to grow EBITDA to around $800 million in 2025 with convenience a significant contributor.

Mary: And EV charging we plan to grow energy sales across our four key markets and expect to deliver positive EBITDA in 2025.

Mary: In Castrol, we expect to drive EBITDA through volume growth cost efficiencies and emerging new business areas.

Mary: And hydrogen in renewables and power, we will remain disciplined and focused on value creation, establishing the capabilities and foundations for scalable and integrated businesses in the decades to come our recent announcement of the acquisition of light source BP is a great example.

Speaker: Our recent announcement of the acquisition of Light Source BP is a great example. We will continue to leverage the benefits of our integrated business model. We're advancing our technology and innovation agenda, moving past pilots and use cases to building our own custom generative AI products, and we are getting them into the hands of our global workforce. And our world-class trading business will continue to be the core of integrating and optimizing across our energy value chains to deliver higher margins and lower emissions, all in service of our target to grow EBITDA to 46 to 49 billion in 2025. Let me then sum up what you've heard, and we'll get to your questions.

Mary: We will continue to leverage the benefits of our integrated business model, we're advancing our technology and innovation agenda, moving past pilots and use cases to building our own custom generative AI products and we are getting into the hands of our global workforce and our world class trading business will continue to be the core of integrated and optimizing across our energy value chain.

Mary: <unk> to deliver higher margins and lower emissions.

Mary: All in service of our target to grow EBITDA to 46 to 49 billion in 2025.

Speaker Change: Let me then sum up what you've heard and we'll get to your questions.

Speaker: Four years in, our destination is unchanged from IOC to IEC, and we remain confident in the strategy. At its core is a laser-like focus on growing the value of BP, and underpinning this, we're going to be focused on six near-term priorities. First, improving safety, our first priority, and reducing emissions. Second, driving further focus into the business. That means actively managing our portfolio and continued high-grading and focusing on activities that create the most value. Third, delivering the next wave of efficiency, an area where I see a huge opportunity. For example, using global capability centers and our industry-leading digitization and technology expertise to increase margin and decrease spend. What some of you saw in Denver is just the tip of the iceberg, and we are now deploying that capability into the downstream. These efficiencies will feed into our fourth priority, that is, progressing the next set of growth projects that we expect to sanction across the next two years.

Speaker Change: Four years and our destination is unchanged.

Speaker Change: IOC to IEC and we remain confident in the strategy.

Speaker Change: At its core is a laser like focus on growing the value of BP and underpinning. This we're going to be focused on six near term priorities.

First improving safety, our first priority and reducing emissions.

Speaker Change: Driving further focus into the business that means actively managing our portfolio and continued high grading and focusing on activities that create the most value.

Speaker Change: Third delivering the next wave of efficiency, an area, where I see huge opportunity.

Speaker Change: For example, using global capability centers, and our industry, leading digitization and technology expertise to increase margin and decreased spend what some of you saw in Denver is just the tip of the iceberg and we are now deploying that capability into the downstream.

Speaker Change: These efficiencies will feed into our fourth priority that is progressing the next set of growth projects that.

Speaker Change: We expect to sanction across the next two years. These projects provide growth through the end of the decade and into the next.

Speaker: These projects will provide growth through the end of the decade and into the next. Finally, as you heard from Kate, we have disciplined investment allocation at the core of our financial framework, which is focused on optimizing return on capital employed. And finally, our sixth priority, we remain committed to growing shareholder returns, including now returning at least 80% of surplus cash flow to shareholders through share buybacks. We know exactly what we need to do, and some of the key measures are on the slide.

Speaker Change: Seth as you heard from Kate we have disciplined investment allocation of the core of our financial frame, which is focus on optimizing return on capital employed and finally, our six priority we remain committed to growing shareholder returns, including now returning at least 80% of surplus cash flow to shareholders through share buybacks.

Speaker Change: We know exactly what we need to do and some of the key measures are up on the slide you can monitor our progress quarter to quarter as we drive to 2025.

Speaker: You can monitor our progress quarter to quarter as we drive to 2025. In conclusion, we're investing in today's oil and gas system and building out tomorrow's, all in service of growing the value of BP. The direction is the same, but we're going to deliver as a simpler, more focused, higher value company that pragmatically adapts to demand and supply. And we look forward to updating you as we move through the year. With that, Kate and I will be delighted to take your questions. Thank you.

Speaker Change: In conclusion, we're investing in today's oil and gas system and building out tomorrows all in service of growing the value of BP.

Speaker Change: The direction is the same but we're going to deliver as a simpler more focused higher value company that pragmatically adopt with demand and societal needs and we look forward to updating you as we move through the year with that Kate and I will be delighted to take your questions. Thank you.

Speaker Change: Okay.

Speaker: And no questions on the line yet. Let's see, where should we start? Michele, why don't we start with you, please?

Speaker Change: No questions online yet.

Kate: Let's see where should we start Mikael why don't we start with you. Please.

Speaker: Limit yourself to two questions, please, if you can. Of course, that wasn't directed personally at you, Michele.

Speaker Change: Limit yourself to two questions. Please if you can.

Mikael: Of course that wasn't directed personally at Umicore.

Speaker: It will only be two. Congratulations on the strong result. Two questions, if I may. The first one, when you talk about an A-range credit matrix through the cycle, is there a simple way to bring it down to a net debt level that you would like to achieve in the course of the coming years?

Mikael: It will only be two and congratulations on the strong result, and two questions. If I may the first one when you talk about in a range creative matrix through the cycle.

Mikael: Is there a simplistic way to bring it down to a net debt level that you would like to achieve in the course of the coming years and my second question is of the transition growth aimed genes clearly you've got a very ambitious target in terms of EBITDA in 2025, it's more than a tripling of EBITDA, which goes.

Speaker: And my second question is about the transition growth engines. Clearly, you've got a very ambitious target in terms of EBITDA in 2025. It's more than a tripling of EBITDA, which goes well beyond volume growth. I was wondering if you could help us a bit more understand where that increase in EBITDA margins would come from. Is it cost?

Mikael: We'll be on the volume growth I was wondering if you could help us it would be more understand weird that.

Speaker Change: Increasing EBITDA margins would come from is it cost is it price easy cost cutting and integration of the likes of light source BP. Thank you fantastic. Thanks, Michaela I'll take I'll take the second question first and then Kate I'll hand over it to for the balance sheet question on the T. Geez, Yeah, it's an aggressive growth profile from around $1 billion in 'twenty.

Speaker: Is it price? Is it cost cutting and integration of the likes of light source BP? Thank you.

Speaker: Fantastic. Thanks, Michele. I'll take the second question first, and then, Kate, I'll hand over to you for the balance sheet question. On the TGEs, yeah, it's an aggressive growth profile from around $1 billion in 2023 to $3 to $4 billion by 2025. If you think about what we've done over the past few years. We've bought an awful lot of companies in, and now need to bring them in, standardize them, and drive that growth through them. So, the march from 1 to 3 to 4, it starts with Archaea. We went slow on purpose to get the design right for rapid replication.

Speaker Change: <unk> 23 to three to 4 million by 2025.

Speaker Change: If you think about what we've done over the past few years.

Speaker Change: We've bought an awful lot of companies in and now need to bring them in standardize them and drive that growth through them.

Speaker Change: So the March from from one to three to four it starts with Arcadia.

Speaker Change: We went slow on purpose to get the design right for rapid replication. We're now an action. We've got five plants online, we'll do four or five a quarter now marching forward over the next eight quarters.

Speaker: We're now in action. We've got five plants online. We'll do four or five a quarter now, marching forward over the next eight quarters. At Travel Centers of America, we brought it in.

Speaker Change: And travel centers of America, we brought it in we're starting to deliver the synergies inside that we see tremendous opportunity to introduce biofuels intuit to enhance margins, we are probably going to beat the synergies on that.

Speaker: We're starting to deliver the synergies inside that. We see tremendous opportunity to introduce biofuels into it to enhance margins. We're probably going to beat the synergies on that.

Speaker: The company was not as efficient as we thought it might have been, so that delivers more opportunity as well. We'll have light source BP coming in that will allow us to grow that business and absorb that EBITDA as well. And in Emma's business, we do continue to see really strong growth despite recessionary forces and convenience, 9% year on year, despite recession, despite COVID, you name it. We've got a fantastic team that we brought in that's really driving growth in that space as well. EV earnings are positive in two countries.

Speaker Change: The company was not as efficient as we thought it might have been so that delivers more opportunity as well will have light source BP coming in that will allow us to grow that business and absorb that up it does well.

Speaker Change: And in EMS business Hum, we do continue to see really strong growth, despite recessionary forces and convenience, 9% year on year. Despite recession. Despite COVID-19 you name. It we've got a fantastic team that we brought in that's really driving growth in that space as well EV.

Speaker Change: Earnings positive in two countries will get everything to break even by 2025 as well.

Speaker: We'll get everything to break even by 2025 as well. And, of course, we'll tighten, we'll really tighten the focus on origination, not spend as much money on origination, and really focus on what we're going to deliver moving forward. So I feel comfortable. It's a bold target to hit three or four, but I feel comfortable with it based on what we've done and look forward to reporting back to you on that in the coming quarters. Morning McKenny, thanks for your question.

Speaker Change: And of course, we'll tighten we'll really tightened the focus on origination not spend as much money on origination and really focus on what we're going to deliver moving forward. So I feel comfortable it's a bold target to hit three or four but I feel comfortable with it based on what we've done and look forward to reporting back to you on that over the coming quarters.

Speaker Change: I think one of Mackenzie Thanks for your question.

Speaker: Let me just step back for a minute and just make sure everyone's still very clear. The balance sheet and the credit rating, the stronger investment grade credit rating remains the second priority. That's fundamental to us. I think the resilience of the company from a financial position is more than just net debt. And I like the way that the credit rating agencies think about the ratio of the cash that we're generating versus the total of our debt-like liabilities. I think that's a good measure of resilience. The change we're making today, which is moving away from targeting progress within the rating to being clear around progress within the metrics, is that I've got control over that. We have a great relationship with the rating agents.

Speaker Change: Let me just step back a minute and just.

Speaker Change: Make sure everyone's still very clear that the balance sheet and the credit rating and a strong investment grade credit rating remains the second priority that that's fundamental to I think resilience at the company from a financial position is more than just net debt and I like the way that the credit rating agencies think about the ratios the cash that we're generating faster.

Speaker Change: The total of all that like liabilities I think that's a good measure of resilience.

Speaker Change: The change, we're making today, which is moving away from targeting progress within the rating to being clear around progress within the metrics says I've got control over that.

Speaker Change: We've got a great.

Speaker Change: Our relationship with the rating agencies, we speak to them very regularly but we cannot control the rating outcome and neither should we wait did get upgraded by Fitch in November we remain on positive outlook with S&P and Moody's say, let's say, we are well within the metrics for an upgrade that.

Speaker: We speak to them very regularly, but we can't control the rating outcome, and neither should we. We did get upgraded by Fitch in November. We remain on a positive outlook with S&P and Moody's. So, let's see.

Speaker: We are well within the metrics for an upgrade, but that's for them to decide. But from my perspective, it's around making sure that we are maintaining a balance sheet that is resilient, allows us to see through volatility, and allows us to tolerate a perspective of an environment that is going to change, but also cash flows that are going to move around within quarters. So you've seen from the guidance where we're guiding to heavier capex in the first half and heavier divestments in the second half. You're going to see our net debt move around. That's OK. We've strengthened it so significantly in the last few years to this level, which is the lowest in a decade. That gives us a lot of confidence that we can tolerate that level of momentum. So I'm not going to put a net debt target out.

Speaker Change: For them to decide but from my perspective, it's around making sure that we are maintaining a balance sheet that is resilient allows us to see through volatility allows us to tolerate.

Speaker Change: On a perspective of a environment that is going to move but also cash flows that are going to move around within quarters say as you've seen from the guidance, where we're guiding to heavier capex in the first half and heavier divestments in the second half you're going to say on that that move around.

Speaker Change: We strengthened very significantly in the last few years down to this level, which is the lowest in a decade that gives us a lot of confidence that we can tolerate that level of momentum. So I'm not going to put a net debt target out I mean, Italian uncomfortable with where it sits right now and our ability to tolerate movement and remind you that we will continue till let's say putting around too.

Speaker: I'm going to tell you I'm comfortable with where it sits right now and our ability to tolerate movement and remind you that we will continue to obviously be putting around 20% of our surplus cash flow into the balance sheet. So it's going to continue to de-leverage just at a slightly slower rate. Thanks, Kit. Harosh.

Speaker Change: 90% of our surplus cash flow to the balance sheet. So it's going to continue to deleverage just at a slightly slower pace.

Speaker Change: Thanks Kit crush.

Speaker: Hi there, it's Biraj Borkhataria from RBC. I've got two questions. The first one's on your EBITDA targets, targets more for 2030 than 2025. In the footnote, when you presented that in the past, you would say capex at the higher end of the range. And in 22, you were at 16, 23, 16, and now you're guiding to the middle for 24 and 25, so basically half the plan. So could you talk about the sort of, let's say, EBITDA sacrifice for not spending that extra 2 billion and where it's coming from and how to think about that? And then the second question is on the dividend. So you referenced the 4% at 60. Excuse me, are you looking to explicitly link that to the buybacks, you know, you're obviously buying back shares faster than any of your peers, as your chart's showing, or do you see them as two separate things in your preference for the buyback here? Great. I'll tackle the first one first. Kate, you grab the second one.

Speaker Change: Hi, there its spiritual Qatari obviously.

Speaker Change: I've got two questions. The first one is on your EBITDA.

Kit: It's over the more for 2013 in 2025 mm in the footnote when you presented it in the past you'll say capex at the higher end of the range and in 22 years at 16, and $23 16, and now you're guiding to the middle for 24 and 25. So it basically half the plant. So could you talk about missiles, let's say EBITDA sacrifice for north.

Kit: Spending that extra 2 billion.

Kit: And where it's coming from and how to think about that.

Kit: And then the second question is on the dividend.

Kit: So you referenced the 4% 60.

Speaker Change: Excuse me.

Speaker Change: What are you looking to explicitly linked that to the buybacks, you've obviously buying back shares faster than any of your peers. As you chart showing or do you see them as two separate things and your preference for the buyback here. Thank you great I'll tackle. The first one can you grab the second one so the long term guidance on capital frame has not changed for <unk> 2 billion.

Speaker: So, the long-term guidance on capital framework has not changed, $14 to $82 billion through the decade. What we are changing is we're getting more disciplined with the 24 and 25-year, tightening in on a $16 billion range for these two years. I think the way that I relate to this, Biraj, is that we've done a lot of acquisitions recently. EDF, Arkaya, Travel Signage of America, Lightsource, these are big transactions.

Speaker Change: Through the decade.

Speaker Change: What we are changing as we're getting more disciplined with 24 and 25 year tightening in on a 16 $16 billion range for these two years.

Speaker Change: I think the way that I relate to this barrages that we've done a lot of acquisitions recently EDF Arcadia travel centers of America light source. These are big transactions they represent.

Speaker: They represent north of 12% of our overall value, which is similar to some of the big transactions you've seen in the United States from some of our competitors on an equity basis. And it's injecting a lot of people into the business, you know, 19,000 alone inside travel centers in America. So it's time now to pause on acquisitions. We might do a few more, but we should pause on them and instead focus on that hard work of integrating the systems, the people, the processes, the cultures of these entities. And that's really what we're focused on right now. As far as an EBITDA sacrifice is concerned, I remain very comfortable with our 2025 targets.

Speaker Change: North of 12% of our overall value, which is similar to some of the big transactions you've seen in the United States from some of our competitors on an equity basis and its injecting a lot of people into the business.

Speaker Change: 19000 alone inside travel centers of America. So it's time now to pause on acquisitions, we might do a few more but to pause on them and instead focus on that hard work of integrating the systems. The people the processes. The culture. So these entities and that's really what we're focused on right now as far as an EBITA sacrifice.

Speaker Change: I remain very comfortable with our 2025 targets I think in a 2030 cents. We haven't we haven't really deviated from the 25 to 30 timeframe. So it's not not anything material. So I think the latest numbers adjusted give or take on our 46 to 49 target in 2025, we're at about 44.

Speaker: I think in a 2030 sense, we haven't really deviated from the 25 to 30 timeframe, so it's not anything material. So I think the latest numbers adjusted, give or take, on our 46 to 49 target in 2025 are around 44. So I'm feeling pretty good about that as well. Strong, strong growth inside the upstream.

Speaker Change: Sure.

Speaker Change: So I'm feeling pretty good about that as well strong strong growth inside the upstream.

Speaker: And so I feel comfortable about 25, no change to 2030 at this stage. And in due course, we'll update the market on what we're thinking about for targets for 2030. Those, of course, are my goals right now, Pradosh. Hope that helps. And over to Kate. Thanks, Biraj. Morning. So on dividends, making sure that it's a resilient dividend is really important to us, which is why we're keeping it as our first priority in the financial framework today. The reason we haven't created, and I don't think we should create a link to the share buyback is, of course, with the share buyback progress, the share count reduction occurs over time.

Speaker Change: And so I feel comfortable about 25, no change to 2030 at this stage and in due course, we'll update the update the market on what we're thinking about for targets for 2030, there's a portion of our names right now brush hope that helps and over to Kate.

Kate: Thanks, Brian Good morning.

Kate: On dividend like making sure that it's a resilient dividend is really important to us which is why we are keeping it as our first part in our financials Brian today.

Kate: The reason, we haven't created not anything we should create a link to share buyback is of course with the share buyback program the share count reduction because over time, we've got a very significant decrease in our share count reduction to date, that's going to continue given what we just laid out today that gives the board an ability to move the dividend per share up.

Speaker: We've got a very significant decrease in our share count reduction to date, and that's going to continue given what we've just laid out today. That gives the board the ability to move the dividend per share up. But, of course, the board is going to take into consideration facts and circumstances every quarter as it looks at the dividend, which will be dependent on cash flow generation to date, what the outlook looks like, the environment, and momentum, and they will make that decision as and when we get to each quarter.

Kate: But of course, the board is going to take into consideration facts and circumstance in every quarter as it looks at the dividend, which will be depending on cash flow generation to date, what the outlook looks like environment momentum.

And they will take that decision as and when we get to each quarter I don't think linking it to a particular buyback share count reduction is helpful. Because it removes flexibility we want to retain flexibility. So that when we are considering as a board. We can take into consideration that that basket of considerations that will allow us to make the right decision for the company and the shareholders.

Speaker: I don't think linking it to a particular buyback share count reduction is helpful because it removes flexibility. We want to retain flexibility so that when we're considering it as a board, we can take into consideration that basket of considerations that will allow us to make the right decision for the company and the shareholders. I think the balance point is the key, isn't it?

Kate: I think balanced points the key isn't it that the thing that we feel really really anchored too is that balance point of affordability on the dividend and 40 11 months range and of course share count reduction helps drive that balance point down but balance point is what we're obsessed about.

Speaker: The thing that we feel really, really anchored to is that balance point of affordability on the dividend at 40, 11, and 3. And, of course, share count reduction helps drive that balance point down, but that balance point is what we're obsessed about. Chris.

Kate: Correct.

Speaker: Chris Kuplent from Bank of America. Two quick questions. Murray, you mentioned in your speech Akka BP and some of the value creation you've now achieved off balance sheets with Angola as well, and I wonder whether you can contrast that with how you're bringing LightSource fully into your realm of control. We've seen the asset swap with Equinor, TA, and all those acquisitions were fully owned, fully controlled, so maybe you can compare and contrast a little bit why it matters to you in And my second question, Kate, is that the $14 billion two-year guidance is based on current market conditions. How do you feel about current market conditions? I noticed that yes, refining margins have come down a lot, but they still sit above your balance point comment, Brent. Likewise, give us a little bit of a feel for how comfortable that current market condition comment can be interpreted. Yeah, great. Okay, Chris, I'll start, and Kate can go second.

Kate: Yeah.

Kate: Thank you, Chris Coupland from Bank of America.

Speaker Change: Two quick questions.

Chris Coupland: Mark you've mentioned in your speech Aker BP and some of the value creation, you've now achieved off balance sheet with Angola, as well and I Wonder whether you can contrast against that how you're bringing light source into fully your realm of control them, we've seen the asset swap with Ecuador.

Chris Coupland: T a and all those acquisitions were fully earned fully in control. So maybe you can compare and contrast, a little bit why it matters to you in those in those situations.

Speaker Change: And my second question.

Speaker Change: I noticed the $14 billion.

Two we our guidance is based on current market conditions, and where do you where do you. How do you feel about current market conditions I noticed that.

Speaker Change: Yes, refining margins have come down a lot, but they still sits above your your your balanced point comment Brent Likewise.

Speaker Change: Give us a little bit of a feel how comfortable that current market condition comment can be interpreted yep.

Speaker Change: Yeah, great Okay, Chris I'll start and then Kate can cause second.

Speaker: So AccurBP, a fantastic transaction with unique circumstances associated with it. We were in declining assets late in life. It made sense to exit the basin. But Norsk, the counterparty, was in growth mode. But they needed cash generation to be able to grow. They just didn't have enough cash generation themselves.

Speaker Change: So aker BP a fantastic transaction unique circumstances associated with it we were in declining assets late in life made sense to exit the basin that Norsk the counterparty was in growth mode.

Speaker Change: But they needed cash generation to to be able to grow that just didn't have enough cash generation themselves. So we found.

Speaker: So we found, after many years of discussions, that we could bring those two companies together and create something pretty special. I don't know what the current numbers are, but it was worth about a billion when we did the transaction. I think it's up around three or four billion now. Tremendous value creation for both sides. No loser inside that one.

Speaker Change: After many years of discussions that we could bring those two companies together and create something pretty special.

Speaker Change: Don't know what the current numbers are but we it was worth about 1 billion. When we did the transaction I think it's up around three or 4 million now so tremendous value creation for both both sides.

Speaker Change: No no loser inside that one with light source B P. We had a partner that's a private individual they have grown in scale this business tremendously.

Speaker: With LightSourceBP, we had a partner that's a private individual. They have grown and scaled this business tremendously, but they've reached their maximum ability to finance this. So it's a little bit like the AccurBP situation where they didn't have enough cash to grow.

Speaker Change: But they've reached the ability they've reached their max ability to finance with us. So it's a little bit like the Aker BP situation, where they didn't have enough cash to grow so.

Speaker: So this was the moment in time for them to cash out, for us to take over LightSourceBP. It has a couple of advantages for us to structure it this way right now. Carol has a fantastic trading business, and demand for natural gas coupled with solar and battery technology continues to grow and grow and grow. We're seeing some really big demand coming out, especially from cloud providers who have GenAI. Just the demand curves are going up. Asymptotic, is that the right word? I don't know. Whatever the right word is,

Speaker Change: This was the moment in time for them to cash out for us to take over light source BP has a couple of advantages for us to structure. It. This way right now Carroll has a fantastic trading business and demand for natural gas covered coupled with solar and battery technology continues to grow and grow and grow and we're seeing some really big demand coming out, especially.

Speaker Change: <unk> from cloud providers, who have gen AI and just the the demand curves are in our.

Speaker Change: Asymptotic is not the right word I dunno whenever whatever the right word is huge huge demand for these things so being able to control that entity package. These things together and provide those trading options are those packages of energy.

Speaker: Huge, huge demand for these things. So being able to control that entity, package these things together, and provide those trading options or those packages of energy is really important. The second thing is that if green hydrogen does move, you're going to want control of the developer if that happens. Why?

Speaker Change: <unk> is a really important the second thing is if green hydrogen does move.

Speaker Change: You're gonna want control of the developer of that happens why so you avoid giving margin away to third party developers that can be quite high. So at this moment in time. It makes an awful lot of sense to bring that and repackage. It straightened out pointed towards helping karl's business, helping on your business and I think that creates distinctive advantage for us right now.

Speaker: So you avoid giving margin away to third-party developers, which can be quite high. So at this moment in time, it makes an awful lot of sense to bring that in, repackage it, straighten it out, and point it toward helping Carol's business and helping Anya's business. And I think that creates a distinctive advantage for us right now. We will continue to bring partners in for development and flip. We'll contemplate what we do with the developer itself. Should we bring in our partner or not?

Speaker Change: We will continue to bring partners in for develop and flip will contemplate what we do with the developer itself should we bring in a partner or not that's something we'll keep thinking about and we'll remain very agile, but they have different circumstances I hope those examples give you a sense of how we think about these things which is how do you drive maximum value through.

Speaker: That's something we'll keep thinking about, and we'll remain very agile. But they have different circumstances. I hope those examples give you a sense of how we think about these things, which is, how do you drive maximum value through different points and cycles in these entities?

Speaker Change: Different points in cycle in these entities. So I hope that I hope that helps answer the cross the question, Chris Keith and Chris.

Speaker: So I hope that I hope that helps answer the question, Chris. So Chris, current market conditions. So a couple of things. I'd say one is, I think it's important to anchor yourself around the fact that the cash flows of our company are not driven by the oil price alone. So it's a basket of commodities, it's oil price, it's gas price, it's refining margins, you know that.

Speaker Change: Current market conditions say, a couple of things I'd say, one is I think it's important to us.

Speaker Change: Yourself around the fact that the cash flows of our company and not driven by an old price alone. So it's a basket of commodities as oil prices gas prices are finding much in G&A that and you can look at where we've been year to date, so far to get a sense of where we're thinking on that.

Speaker: And you can look at where we've been year to date so far to get a sense of where we're thinking on that. What I would say is that the confidence that we now have in our balance sheet to tolerate movements around it gives you a sense that we can... Be comfortable in the fact that we'll be able to distribute the $14 billion in a range around where those prices have been year-to-date. If we see a fundamental disconnect in the market, then of course, we'll need to talk to the board and update you if that happens. But for now, the confidence we have in the business performance and the momentum we've got, the confidence that we've got in the strength of our balance sheet allows us to be... confident that we can deliver the 14 billion at prices around where they've been year to date. That's how I hold it.

Speaker Change: But I would say is that the confidence that we now have in our balance sheet to tolerate movements around that gives you a sense that we can we can be.

Speaker Change: He comfortable in and the fact that we'll be able to distribute a $14 billion in a range around where they are where those prices have been year to date if.

Speaker Change: If we say a fundamental disconnect in the market then of course, we'll need to talk to the board and update you if that happens but for now the confidence we have in the business performance and the momentum we've got the confidence that we've got and the strength of our balance sheet allows us to be.

Speaker Change: Confident that we can deliver that that $14 billion at prices around where they've been year to date.

Speaker Change: Hold it.

Speaker: Great. Ours. Thank you very much. Oswald Clint at Bernstein.

Speaker Change: Awesome.

Thank you very much Oswald Clint at Bernstein.

Speaker: It looks like, just backing out, maybe $4.5 billion of trading last year. I always like to try and dig into this. It looks like, again, as Kate was saying, you hit the 4%, number so that that's great um I guess just as in this next two years can you just talk about again the confidence may be linked to that last question and points the macro is at this macro you can keep doing that quantum in 2024 2025 what including the new businesses trading around those just again describe that the confidence around delivering that through this year and next and then secondly Murray you said there are four generations in the oil and gas business you're sitting in a new seat I'm just curious about your appetite for a little bit more liquids growth potentially through the portfolio we have the 3% to 2027 how do you think about bringing some more through service cost inflation all of that put together please thank you yeah sure maybe I'll take both of these sorry Kate liquids yeah so what we told everybody in Denver is that we see the capacity to grow our oil production so to speak by two to three percent through 2027 as we look ahead over the next two years we have some big decisions on sanctions as well that will determine what happens beyond that odds, So you have Cabo Frio in Brazil. You've got Cascada, Tiber, Gila in the Gulf of Mexico and the Paleogene, you have Beta Nord in Canada, you have Clare expansion, you have Abu Dhabi expansion.

Speaker Change: It looks like I mean, just backing up maybe four and a half a billion dollars of trading last year I always like to try and dig into this it looks like again as Kate was saying you hit the 4%.

Number so that's that's great.

Speaker Change: I guess just as in this next two years can you just talk about again the confidence maybe linked to that last question and points to macro is it at this macro you can keep doing that quantum in 2020 for 2025 watts.

Speaker Change: Including the new businesses trading around those just again describe the confidence around delivering that through.

Speaker Change: This year and next and then secondly.

Speaker Change: Murray you said, they're four generations in the oil and gas business, you're sitting and then you see them just curious about your appetite for a little bit more liquids growth potentially through the portfolio, we have the 3% to 2027.

Speaker Change: How do you think about bringing some more through service cost inflation all of that put together. Please. Thank you, yes sure maybe I'll take both of these.

Speaker Change: Sorry, Okay.

Speaker Change:

Speaker Change: Liquids.

Murray: Yeah. So what we told everybody in Denver is that we see the capacity to grow our oil production so to speak by 2% to 3% through 2027 as we look ahead over the next two years, we have some big decisions on sanctions as well that will determine what happens beyond that ours. So you have Cabo frio high in Brazil, you've got.

Murray: Cascade of Tiber and Gila in the Gulf of Mexico in the Paleogene Beta Northern Canada, you have clear expansion you have Abu Dhabi expansion I'm, probably missing something that I can think of off the top of my head, but you have these massive massive.

Speaker: I'm probably missing some that I can't think of off the top of my head. But you have these massive, massive projects, some of which are held 100%. You know, the Paleogene, nine billion barrels, 100%. Let's see how we do on those. And if we decide to sanction more of them rather than less, then I think we can do better than that, 2% to 3%. But I'm not going to be focused on volume.

Murray: Massive projects some of which are held 100% the Paleogene 9 billion barrels 100%.

Murray: Let's see how we go on those let's see how we go on those and if if we decided to sanction more of them rather than less and I think we can do better than that 2% to 3%, but I'm not going to be focused on volume I'm going to be super focused on returns and what's the right returns as we look across that versus the gas portfolio as well, there's a plethora of potential <unk>.

Speaker: I'm going to be super focused on returns and what's the right returns as we look across that versus the gas portfolio as well. There are a plethora of potential gas sanctions as well. So I think that's the task of the next two years ahead. That's why I highlighted it.

Murray: Yes gas sanctions as well so I think that's the task of two years ahead, it's why I highlighted that our reserve replacement ratio has been a bit low in the past, it's going to get back much more competitive now as we look at this 12 to 16 sanctions across the next two years, what the volume outcome from that will be hard to predict with giving you 2 million a day by the end of the decade in 2% to 3%.

Speaker: Our reserve replacement ratio has been a bit low in the past, but it's going to get back much more competitive now as we look at this 12 to 16 sanctions across the next two years. What the volume outcome from that will be hard to predict. We've given you $2 million a day by the end of the decade, 2% to 3% growth through 2027 on oil. But I think the sanctions will really determine that.

Murray: <unk> through 'twenty seven on oil, but I think the sanctions will really determine that so as we get through 'twenty, four and 'twenty five and decided that it is then we'll update you in due course about what 2030 really looks like.

Speaker: So as we get through 2024 and 2025 and decide those, then we'll update you in due course about what 2030 really looks like based on all those sanctions. So I have a bias for returns. I don't necessarily have a bias for volume or oil gas. I'm returns biased.

Murray: Based on based on all those sanctions so.

Murray: I have a bias for returns I don't necessarily have a bias for volume and Royal gas I'm returns by his thoughts.

Speaker: On trading, to have Carol's performance contract conversation in front of everybody, we remain deeply confident in our ability to generate the returns in the future that we have in the past. If you think back to 2020, 21, 22, 23, the world has seen a tremendous amount of volatility from COVID to the invasion of Ukraine to events in the Middle East to recessionary forces. That's just created incredible volatility. As you look ahead, oil demand continues to be very strong, and there's not very much spare capacity outside Saudi Arabia, really, so capacity is tight. In refining, we've seen a lot of shutdowns at refineries. Today, the diesel complex is short.

Murray: On trading to have Carol's performance contract conversation in front of everybody.

Murray: We remain deeply confident in our ability to generate the returns in the future that we have in the past as my starting point is.

Murray: If you think back to 2020 in 'twenty, one 'twenty two 'twenty three the world has seen a tremendous amount of volatility from Covid too.

Murray: The invasion of Ukraine.

Murray: Two events in the Middle East to Recessionary forces. That's just created incredible volatility as you look ahead.

Murray: Oil demand continues to be very strong and theres not very much spare capacity outside Saudi really so capacity is tight.

Murray: In refining we've seen a lot of shutdowns on refineries today, the diesel complex a short I'm sure tomorrow. The gasoline complex will be short these things keep changing because of all the outages that sit around us natural gas, we feel okay about right now, but a cold snap in the winter and one of the year's changes the physician on natural gas as well so my own sense is that the.

Speaker: I'm sure tomorrow the gasoline complex will be short. These things keep changing because of all the outages that sit around us. Natural gas we feel okay about right now, but a cold snap in the winter once in a while changes the position on natural gas as well.

Speaker: My own sense is that the world is quite volatile. It's quite volatile, and our trading business is set up to manage volatility and do well in a volatile time frame. Second, we're growing the business. More LNG, 25 by 25, is underpinned.

Murray: World is quite volatile, it's quite volatile on our businesses. Our trading business is set up to manage volatility and do well in a volatile time frame.

Murray: Second we're growing the business.

Murray: More LNG 25 by 'twenty five as underpins I think 28 by 30 is already underpinned as well by a couple of contracts we've done in Oman and in Canada Wood fiber. So you can already see those coming into the portfolio. So you've got a bigger LNG portfolio to take advantage of we've started purchasing larger positions inside.

Speaker: I think 28 by 30 is already underpinned as well by a couple of contracts we've done in Oman and in Canada at Wood Fiber. So you can already see those coming into the portfolio. So you've got a bigger LNG portfolio to take advantage of. We've started purchasing larger positions in power as well, so we can power a couple of them with gas. That was EDF in the U.S. and another transaction in Germany recently in January.

Power as well so we can power coupled with gas that was EDF in the.

Murray: In the U S and another transaction in Germany recently in January So we're scaling up that at the same time, our biofuels is growing more co processing through each of our refineries. These are very capital efficient small modules that buildup five or 10-K B D of capacity.

Speaker: So we're scaling up that. At the same time, our biofuels are growing. More co-processing through each of our refineries. These are very capital efficient small modules that build up five or 10 KBD of capacity quite quickly with lots of biofuels trading, and there's lots of price volatility in that space as well.

Murray: Quite quickly.

Murray: With lots of biofuel is trading and theres lots of price volatility in that space as well. So I think we will.

Speaker: So I think we will, I think I'm very comfortable with the 4% moving forward. You might ask Carol in private time if she feels as comfortable as I do, but I think given the growth of the business, the amount of investment we're putting into it, and the volatility that we see ahead, I think we're well positioned moving forward. Hope that that helps. Great. Why don't we go to the next question, Lydia, and then I'll go to Paul online.

Speaker Change: I'm very comfortable with the 4% moving forward you might ask Carolyn private time of she feels as comfortable as I do.

Speaker Change: But I think given the growth of the business the amount of investment we're putting into it and the volatility that we see ahead I think I think we're well positioned moving forward of that.

Speaker Change: Helps us right.

Speaker Change: When we go to the next question Lydia and then I'll go to Paul online Lydia.

Speaker: Thanks, and just to say I am delighted for both of you individually and for BP, for the roles that you now have, and thank you also for the longevity of the guidance as well as in terms of the buy back. Murray, you've talked about wanting a simpler, higher value BP, which all sounds great because I don't think you'd ever say it's going to be more complex, but what stops you from going there? What are your biggest challenges over the next eight quarters? And then for Kate?

Lydia: Thanks, and just say I am delighted to basically you individually and so that they pay to that raw feed now have and thank you will say for the longevity of the guidance and as well it says that buyback.

Lydia: Larry Ive talked about when he gets into the high value V P, which all sounds great, but they that you'd have to say, it's going to be more complex that what stopped you from that and then what are your biggest challenges over the next eight quarters, Yeah, and then fifth Kate and.

Speaker: The buyback, you talk about at least 14 billion, so what moves you from that? Is it operational, or is it purely price related? And linked to that, how do you think about capex versus buyback? Lydia, that might have been three questions. It was two and a half, okay, very good.

Lydia: By that you spoke about at least 14 billion say what moves you from that is operational or is it kind of is it purely isolated and linked to that how do you think about capex versus buybacks.

Lydia: Lithium that might've been three questions.

It was two and a half okay very good I'll, let Kate handle the second sat on challenges for simplification. So I think the easiest way to think about this as the past four years has been about origination of.

Speaker: I'll let Kate handle the second set of challenges for simplification. So I think the easiest way to think about this is that the past four years have been about origination. The scale of the hopper we built in hydrogen and solar, offshore wind, in oil and gas, everywhere you can see, we have tons of options to move forward. And the big challenge is now to get the organization, the engineers, and the commercial people to move away from origination to execution. That's the big challenge. So, forcing the pace to get to decisions so we can increase cycle time to increase value, reallocating the people to the right places, and then stopping the old stuff. As always, in large corporations, stopping the old stuff is a perpetual challenge. And that's probably the challenge that my leadership team and I have is really getting people to really focus on this stuff and not pursue other things. At the same time, there's a huge, um...

Kate: The scale of the Hopper, we built in hydrogen and solar.

Kate:

Kate: In offshore wind and oil and gas everywhere you can see we have tons of options to move forward.

Kate: And the big challenges to now get the organization the engineers and the commercial people to move away from origination to execution.

Kate: That's the big challenge, so, forcing the pace to get to decisions. So we can increase cycle time to increase value reallocating the people to the right places and then stopping the old stuff is always in large corporation stopping the old stuff is a perpetual challenge and that's probably the challenge that leadership team and I have is really getting people to really focus on this stuff and not not pursuing.

Kate: Other things at.

Kate: At the same time, there's a huge.

Speaker: There's a huge opportunity inside technology. We've made immense strides on digital over the past 10 years, especially in the upstream business. We've now struck a deal with Microsoft to be there, as one of their founding partners on a copilot.

Kate: There's a huge opportunity inside technology.

Kate: We've made a man strides on digital over the past 10 years, especially in the upstream business. We've now strike struck a deal with Microsoft to be there in one of their founding partners on AI co pilot, we're getting it in the hands of our engineers and across the company.

Speaker: We're getting it in the hands of our engineers and across the company. And trying to figure out what are the best things to go after at scale is a key challenge because the opportunities are enormous in this space. So to me, it's all about focus.

Speaker Change: And I'm trying to figure out what are the best things to go after.

Speaker Change: At scale is a key challenge because the opportunities are are enormous in this space. So to me. It's all about focus if I'm honest its all about focus and getting the organization to focus and then let go of the other stuff. That's the biggest challenge that life moving forward Kate Yeah.

Speaker: If I'm honest, it's all about focus and getting the organization to focus and then let go of the other stuff. That's the biggest challenge that we'll have moving forward. Kate?

Speaker: Yeah, thanks, Lydia. Maybe I'll talk about the $14 billion first, and then I'll come back to your question on CapEx and share buybacks. So the way I think about the $14 billion, and Murray talked about the drive to 2025, and all of the confidence that we have in the momentum that's currently around the company, the operations are performing really well. We've got a number of things that will come online over the next two years.

Speaker Change: Lydia maybe I'll I'll talk about the 14 billion first and then I'll come back to your question on Capex and share buybacks. They are the way I think about the 14 unmarried towards about the drive to 2025 and all of they they confidence that we have and the momentum that's currently around that.

Speaker Change: The company the operations are performing really well, we've got a number of things that come online over the next two years that gives us enormous confidence in terms of the underlying operations and our ability to deliver the business outcomes say that Beth I don't fail is is in the picture in terms of deciding where we go with the full team for me, it's really about environment and if there's a fundamental.

Speaker: That gives us enormous confidence in terms of the underlying operations and our ability to deliver the business outcome. So that bit, I don't feel, is in the picture in terms of deciding where we go with the $14 billion. For me, it's really about the environment.

Speaker: And if there's a fundamental change in the environment, then obviously, our cash flows are going to change in relationship to that. So that's why we've anchored it on current conditions. We went to current rather than reasonable because we wanted to give you something that was objective and not subjective.

Speaker Change: Change in the environment them and obviously, our cash flow is that going to change in relationship to that so that that's why we are anchored on current conditions.

Speaker Change: We went into current rather than reasonable because we wanted to give you something that was objective and not subjective say that's why we went with current market conditions and you know what those are.

Speaker: So that's why we went with current market conditions, and you know what those are. In terms of CapEx and share buybacks, so I wouldn't interpret the tightening of the CapEx guidance to 16 as being part of the affordability of the 14. I see the CapEx tightening as a real symbol of our focus on the fact that we are going to be hugely disciplined in how we allocate our capital and very much, very much returns driven. Our sanctions have to hit the hurdle. Otherwise, we won't move them through, and I think that's really important. Murray and I are incredibly clear on that.

Speaker Change: And in terms of Capex and share buybacks. So.

Speaker Change: I wouldnt interpret they they tightening at the Capex guidance to 16 as being part of the affordability of the 14 I see the capex tightening as a real symbol of our focus on the fact that we are going to be hugely disciplined in how we allocate our capital and very much very much returns driven off sanctions have to hit huddle otherwise.

Speaker Change: When we went in there with them and I think that's really important marine are incredibly clear on that and we've done a lot of inorganic activity, which we've talked about over the last couple of years.

Speaker: We've done a lot of inorganic activity, which we've talked about over the last couple of years. I think going forward, there's probably less space for that for the next couple of years. I think the 16 feels about right based on the activity set that we've got today loaded and the tightness that we see around the big, certainly the upstream yards around the world. We wouldn't really want to, couldn't really do it

Speaker Change: I think going forward, there's probably a space for that for the next couple of years I think the 16th feels about right based on the activities that we've got today loaded on the tightness that we say around they they certainly they upstream yards around the world.

Speaker Change: We wouldn't really want to couldn't really do it well actually if you take that I'd say I wouldn't I wouldn't link the share buyback upgrade to the capex tightening the tack that tightening is about it's about discipline and focus the share buyback is around the confidence that we have in the balance sheet Amanda line performance of the business to deliver.

Speaker: Well, actually, if you were to take that up, I wouldn't I wouldn't link the share buyback upgrade to the CapEx tightening. The CapEx tightening is about it's about discipline and focus. The share buyback is around the confidence that we have in the balance sheet and the underlying performance of the business to deliver. And that's what's generated our ability to upgrade and enhance. OK, I'll go online now

Speaker Change: That's what's generated our ability to upgrade and enhance thanks, Kate I'll go online now Paul Cheng Scotiabank Paul.

Speaker: Paul Chang, Scotiabank. Paul. Thank you. Good morning, Mary. Mary, I just want to go back to your previous remark, say, synthesize, and you also, in your earlier comment, said that you wanted to say, let go of some of the previous behavior, focusing on a new, more efficient. So, from that standpoint, if the organization structure needs to be adjusted, you can do all that within the current organization structure. Great

Speaker Change: Yeah.

Oh, Thank you good morning.

Mary I just wanted to go back into your Pizza Remoxy ER.

Speaker Change: Good.

Paul Cheng: And we're also in euro and they come in that you wanted to say a lot.

Paul Cheng: Let go some of the behavior is focusing on a newer more efficient.

Paul Cheng: Hum.

Paul Cheng: Hum.

Paul Cheng: Organization structure looks to be I, just wouldn't want that.

Paul Cheng: Can do all that within the current organization structure.

Speaker Change: Great. Thanks, Paul I. Appreciate the question was a touch hard to hear you. So I think I'll I'll try to answer the question. If I don't answer the question why there's no place I think the question was organization structure do we feel we have the right organization structure to move to delivery.

Speaker: I appreciate the question. It was a touch hard to hear you, so I think I'll try to answer the question. If I don't answer the question, let us...

Speaker: I think the question was organization structure. Do we feel we have the right organization structure to move to delivery? Look, we made a huge change in organization structure back in 2020, probably the largest organizational change in our 114-year history. I don't want to do that again.

Speaker Change: Look we made a huge change in organization structure back in 2020, probably the largest organization structure and our 114 year history I don't want to do that again that was.

Speaker: That was needed, but really demanding on people and demanding on the corporation. Some of those changes took a couple of years to enact in places like Europe. So I don't want to do a mass change of structure.

Speaker Change: Needed, but really demanding on people and demanding on the corporation. Some of those changes took a couple of years to enact and in places like Europe. So I don't want to do a mass mass change of structure I don't think we need to either however, there are places, where we're inefficient and will do a gradual program over.

Speaker: I don't think we need to either. However, there are places where we're inefficient, and we'll do a gradual program over time of driving efficiency into the business and the structure. There are places where we've got overlap that we need to think about how to do it better. So that'll be something on our minds. But big corporate structural changes, no. Changes to reporting segments, I'd prefer not.

Speaker Change: Time of driving efficiency into the business and the structure. You know there are places where we've got overlap that we need to think about how to do it better.

So that that'll be something on our minds, but big corporate structural change no.

Speaker Change: Changes to reporting segments I'd prefer not I think that's not something that's going to help delivery of our of our of our.

Speaker: I think that's not something that's going to help delivery of our targets in 2025. But look, I'm going to challenge the corporation and challenge ourselves to simplify everywhere we can. You felt it in the buyback guidance today, simpler guidance to help the market. You'll just see us continuing to push that and push that. But I don't want to do a giant wave now.

Speaker Change: In 2025, but look I'm going to challenge of the Corporation and challenge ourselves to simplify everywhere. We can he felt it in the buyback guidance today simpler guidance to help the market, you'll just see us continuing to push that and pushed out but I don't want to do a giant a giant wave now Paul did I answer your question.

Speaker: Paul, did I answer your question? Yeah, maybe if I could, along the way, you guys have done a number of joint ventures, whether it's in Golan or something like that, but from an organization or data management point of view, joint ventures are, a lot of times, difficult. So, if you're trying to make it more simplified going forward, should we assume going forward, you will rely less on the joint venture structure, or that this is a different topic and you don't think it matters? I don't relate to the JVS structure as a mechanism to simplify or not business delivery.

Speaker Change: Maybe but I couldn't along the way you guys have done a number of joint ventures, where they get there.

Speaker Change: I'm going to go with it.

Speaker Change: On the organization or that the management joint venture a long time.

Speaker Change: Cool.

Speaker Change: Given you're trying to make it more seamless like going forward should we assume going forward will be less so on the joint venture structure like that.

Speaker Change: But it didn't topic and get everything you had method.

Speaker Change: Or Ida I don't relate to the JV is structure as a mechanism to simplify our knots on business delivery.

Speaker: I relate to the joint venture structure as a mechanism to more efficiently create value. So if you think back to Light Source BP, we took it off the balance sheet, we geared it up five years ago, and we let it grow on its own. That decision was about giving them independence so they could grow rapidly.

Speaker Change: I relate to the joint venture structure as a mechanism to more efficiently create value. So if you think back to light source B P. We took it off balance sheet, we geared it up five years ago, and we let it grow on its own that decision was about getting them independents. So they could grow rapidly.

Speaker: They've now hit the limits of that, and we need to bring them back in, reset it, and have a new model moving forward. But it was all a value-based decision as opposed to an efficiency-based decision. Think about BPX in the lower 48. We decided once we bought BHP to allow that entity to have an OMS but not an OMS that was of a similar quality to our offshore business.

Speaker Change: They've now hit the limits of that and we need to bring them back and reset it and have a new model moving forward.

Speaker Change: But it was all a value based decision as opposed to an efficiency based decision.

Think about it be PX in the lower 48, we decided once we bought BHP to allow that entity to to have in our mass, but not enormous that was of a similar quality to our offshore businesses.

Speaker: And that allows it to operate more freely, access acreage faster, do contracting faster, et cetera. So for that particular basin, solar and BPX, we felt that that separate model would help them deliver more efficiently. So to me, it's the structure that we use. It's all about how do you create maximum value?

Speaker Change: And that allows us to operate more freely.

Speaker Change: S acreage faster to contracting faster et cetera, so for that particular basin solar and BP Ax, we felt that that separate model would help them deliver more efficiently. So to me. It's about the structure that we use is all about how do you create max value, that's how I think about it.

Speaker: That's how I think about it. And that's how we'll continue to think about it moving forward. Thanks for the question, Paul. Just back on the line one more and then we'll come back. We'll come back into the room. Roger Read, please. Roger. Yeah, thanks. Good morning, everybody.

Speaker Change: And that's how we'll continue to think about it moving forward. Thanks for the question Paul just back on the line one more and then we'll come back will come back into the room Roger read please Roger.

Roger: Yeah. Thanks, good morning, everybody.

Speaker: I guess, probably coming back around a couple of questions already been asked. I just want to make sure I understand on the improvement and EBITDA that you're looking at for a $70 base Brent. Is there a way to think about that from how much is likely from, you know let's call it the conventional production side whether it's the gas or the oil piece and is that you know a mix issue with these new projects coming in or is there something else in terms of a opex reduction we should be paying attention to that's kind of question number one and then in terms of the financial frame on the returns here of capital and I appreciate the clarity I think that's a a nice step forward, If I think about your returns as a percentage EBITDA compared to some of your peers, it's still on the lower end.

Roger: I guess, probably coming back around on a couple of questions already been asked I just want to make sure I understand on the improvement in EBIT.

Roger: AD for a 70 dollar base Brett.

Roger: Is there a way to think about that for about how much is likely from.

Roger: Let's call it the conventional production side, whether it's the gas or the oil piece.

Speaker Change: It is bad.

Speaker Change: Mix issue with these new projects coming in or is there something else in terms of the Opex reduction we should be paying attention to that's kind of question number one and then in terms of the financial frame on the returns here of capital and I. Appreciate the clarity I think that's a nice step forward if I.

Speaker Change: Think about your returns as a percentage EBITDA compared to some of your peers. It's still on the lower end. So I'm. Just wondering do you think about it as strictly what BP is capable of or do you want to try to close the gap longer term with with peers in terms of.

Speaker: So I'm just wondering, do you think about it as strictly what BP is capable of, or do you want to try to close the gap longer term with peers in terms of, you know, ratios or percentage metrics? I'll let Kate answer the second one on EBITDA. So just 2025 is, I think, what your question is, Roger. I hope so because I don't carry the 2030 numbers as tightly in my head.

Speaker Change: You know call it ratios or percentage metrics.

Speaker Change: Great I'll, let Kate answer the second one on the EBITDA. So just 2025 is the I think what your question is Roger.

Kate: So because I don't carry 2030 numbers as tightly in my head, but for 2025, if you'd normalize 2023 to 25 conditions were at 44 billion of EBITDA moving towards 46 to 49 billion in 2025.

Speaker: But for 2025, if you normalize 2023 to 2025 conditions, we're at $44 billion of EBITDA, moving towards $46 to $49 billion in 2025. We obviously have growth in the upstream that we've been talking about. There are divestments along the way that may or may not happen. Some of these ones are pretty tricky.

Kate: We obviously have growth in the upstream that we've been talking about.

Kate: There are divestments, along the way that may or may not happen. Some of these ones are pretty tricky.

Speaker: But there are some potential divestments we've talked about in the past that may be part of that mix as well. But the new projects that are coming on are of higher quality to the existing business, so you should see a margin mix impact from the upstream across the time period. So that's the first part of your question.

Kate: But there are some potential divestments, we've talked about in the past that that may be part of that mix as well, but.

Kate: The new projects that are coming on are of higher quality to the existing business I think the uplifts about 15% to 20%. So you should see margin mix impact from the upstream across the time period. So that's the first part of your question. Additionally, we talked about the transition growth engines earlier, we see growth of one up to three to four based on the.

Speaker: Additionally, we talked about the transition growth engines earlier. We see growth of one up to three to four based on the acquisitions we've done and the direction of travel with the rest. So I think that should help you think about how we get into that 46 to 49 realm. Probably, the first half of it is the historic oil and gas business and refining business, and the second half is the transition growth engines as well. I feel pretty underpinned on the 46 to 49, to be honest.

Kate: Acquisitions, we've done and the direction of travel with arrest. So I think that should help you think about how we get into that 46 to 49 realm.

Kate: Probably the first the first half of it is the historic oil and gas business and refining business and the second half as the transition growth engines as well I feel pretty underpinned on the 46 to 49 to be honest.

Speaker: I think we'll hit that quite easily. Yeah, thanks. And morning, a very early morning for you, Roger.

Speaker Change: We will hit that quite easily Kate.

Kate: Yeah, Thanks and morning, very early morning for you Roger I. Thank you for thank you for joining us today.

Speaker: Thank you for joining us today. I will step back a little bit. So if you think about our balance sheet and where we were in 2020, we had net debt of over $50 billion. And I think you could argue we're starting from perhaps a slightly different place than some of our peers. And the focus that we have put into strengthening the balance sheet and putting 40% of the surplus into that balance sheet and deleveraging over the last few years, I think has been really, really important. And, as we've said today a number of times, it's taken us to a place now where we are stronger than we were. We've got confidence that our balance sheet can tolerate movements. And that has allowed us to do more with regard to shareholder distributions and move to the 80%.

Kate: Let me step back a little bit. So if you think about our balance sheet and where we were in 2020, we had net debt of <unk>.

Speaker Change: As a $50 billion and I think you could argue we're starting from perhaps slightly different place than some of our peers and the focus that we have put into strengthening the balance sheet and putting 40% of surplus I havent see that balance sheet and de leverage over the last few years I think that's been really really important and it as we said today a number of times, it's taken us to a place now where we are.

Speaker Change: Stronger than me why we've got confidence that our balance sheet can tolerate movements.

Speaker Change: That has allowed us to do more with regard to shareholder distributions that moved to the 80%. We feel that's in line with our pairs Hum and I'd say.

Speaker: We feel that's in line with our peers. It's very much about the journey that we've taken to get to where we are today. Today, with what we're announcing with our predictable, simplified, enhanced guidance, we feel that that very much puts us in line with our peer groups. Good. Thanks, Roger. Why don't we come back into the room? Thanks.

Speaker Change: It's very much around the journey that we've taken to get to where we are today today with what we're announcing with a predictable simplified enhanced guidance, we feel that very much puts us in line with our peer group.

Speaker Change: Good Thanks, Roger why don't we come back into the room.

Speaker Change: Yep.

Josh: Thanks, Hi, it's Josh stone here from UBS.

Speaker: Two questions, please. Firstly, you haven't made any reference to emissions today. You revised your scope through an emission target this time last year. How comfortable do you feel with that target for 2030? Are there some easy wins you can do to reduce emissions and still maintain value?

Josh Stone: Two questions. Please firstly you haven't made any reference to emissions today.

Josh Stone: Revised stricter emission target. This time last year, so how comfortable do you feel without targets of 2030.

Josh Stone: Although some easy wins, you can do to reduce emissions and still maintain that.

Josh Stone: Maintain value.

Speaker: And then, second question for Kate, on working capital, you mentioned there was a large release related to LNG. Can you remind us, is there anything left to release on the LNG side? Thank you.

Speaker Change: And then second question for Kate.

Speaker Change: On working capital you mentioned, there was a large release related to LNG.

Kate: And remind us is there anything left sorts of release on the LNG side. Thank you sure on emissions.

Speaker: Sure. On emissions, so we'll update our emissions in the ARA for what we actually achieve in 2023. We're still busy calculating that, as you can imagine, but I think we've made strong progress on Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions from our company. We continue with the drive to hit 50% reduction in emissions from Scope 1 and Scope 2 by 2030. That's engineering. It's pure and simple engineering now. It's big programs like you'll see in Indonesia, taking carbon, injecting it into the reservoir, getting more natural gas out, the carbon stays entrained, and there are fewer emissions for the planet.

Kate: So, we'll we'll update our emissions MAA array for what we actually achieved in 2023, we're still busy calculating about as you can imagine, but I think we've got strong progress on scope, one and scope two emissions from our company. We continue on with the drive to hit 50% reduction of emissions from scope, one and scope two by 2030 that's engineer.

Kate: It's pure and simple engineering now its big programs like you'll see in Indonesia of taking carbon injected into the reservoir are getting more natural gas out of the carbon stays and trained and theres lots of emissions for for the planet. So those are the kind of things that we'll be doing but it's a very Gordon has a very precise list of projects that were.

Speaker: So those are the kind of things that we'll be doing, but Gordon has a very precise list of projects that we'll work our way through over the next four or five years to hit that particular target. I mentioned earlier AIM4, which is about methane reduction. We hit an incredible milestone, and huge compliments to Gordon and the team for putting methane measurements in place across the oil and gas business. That demanded new engineering, new technologies, and working internally and externally to get to that result. I'm really proud of it because it's the most important thing for the planet that we reduce these methane emissions. We'll, of course, be sharing this technology and this learning with anybody inside the sector who wants to. On AIM3, the product mix changes, right?

Kate: Work, our way through over the next four or five years to hit that particular targets.

Kate: I mentioned earlier, our aim for which was about methane reduction.

Kate: We had an incredible milestone a huge complements to Gordon and the team for putting machines methane measurement in place across the oil and gas business.

Kate: That's demanded new engineering, new technologies, working internally and externally to get to that results.

Kate: Really proud of it because it's the most important thing for the planet. So that we reduce these methane emissions will of course be sharing this technology and this learning with anybody inside the sector, who wants to a named three of the product mix changes right. The product mix changes over time, you could hear what I was saying about more electrons being sold so we have fuel stations where.

Speaker: The product mix just changes over time. You could hear what I was saying about more electrons being sold. So we have fuel stations where we sell fuel. Some of that is migrating towards electrification, as an example. And I think sales of electricity were over 150% higher than the previous year. So there are no concerns with the direction of travel we have right now. And we are seeing strong adoption, and we think things like light source BP will help us immensely on this journey as well. So we can couple lower carbon offers with natural gas offers to customers as well. So there's no change to what we're thinking as far as the aims go. Kate?

Kate: We sell fuel some of that is migrating towards electrification as an example, and I think I think sales of electricity were over a 150% up on the previous year. So.

Kate: No concerns with the direction of travel we have right now and we are seeing strong adoption.

Kate: And we think things like light source PPE will help us immensely on this journey as well. So we can coupled lower carbon offers with natural gas offers to customers as well. So no change no change to what we're thinking as far as the AMSCO Kate I think.

Speaker: Thanks Josh. So back in the third quarter results, I talked about around $3 billion still to come in terms of LNG delivery. As you saw, we got around about a $2 billion working capital release in the fourth quarter, and most of that is related to LNG delivery. So I would hold it that there's about one left to come as those deliver through the course of the first half of the year. Thanks, Kate, ahem. Yeah, hi, hello, it's Martijn Rats and Morgan Stanley.

Kate: And so I get to the third quarter results I talked about around $3 billion still to come in terms of LNG delivery. Okay. So we got to around about 2 billion until the working capital release in the in the fourth quarter. Most of that is related to LNG deliveries say I would hold it that was about a one left to come.

Kate: As always deliver through the course of the first half of the year.

Speaker Change: Great. Thanks, Keith.

Speaker Change:

Martijn Rats: Yeah, Hi, Hello, It's Martijn rats of Morgan Stanley.

Speaker: Lots of positives in this set of results. I mean, you're giving us an awful lot to work with, so that's great. But I wanted to ask you two things. I wanted to ask about the impairments, because in the fourth quarter, there were still some impairments. And we tend to sort of shake them off and say, well, non-cash, but it was cash once. Is there some common denominator in these impairments

Martijn Rats: There's lots of positives in this set of results I mean, youre, giving us an awful lot to work with them. So that's great, but I did want to ask you two things I wanted to ask you about the impairments because in the fourth quarter there was still some impairments.

Martijn Rats: And we tend to sort of shake them, often say well noncash, but it will sketch once it's there's some common denominator in these impairments, perhaps you can sort of say a few words about that and the other one I wanted to ask about the actavis shareholder letter.

Speaker: Perhaps you can sort of say a few words about that. And the other one I wanted to ask about the activist shareholder letter, if you had any response to that. I know it's a small investor, but nevertheless, it was sort of intriguing. Why don't you start with impairments, please?

Martijn Rats: And if you had any responses that I noted.

Speaker Change: Small investor, but nevertheless, what sort of intriguing.

Speaker Change: Don't you want to start with impairments because yeah. Thanks, Martin So I wouldn't have.

Speaker: Yeah, thanks, Martin. So impairments, yeah, as you would expect every quarter, we look for potential impairment triggers. In the fourth quarter, there are a number of things that come together. We update our price perspective, we update our group discount rate, we've got our changes to reserves, and you put all of those assumptions together. So it's a confluence of a number of things coming together that cause impairments.

Speaker Change: Yeah as you would expect every quarter, we look for potential impairment triggers.

Speaker Change: The fourth quarter, there are a number of things that come together, we update our off price perspective, we have a great discount rate, we've got our changes to reserves and you put all of those assumptions together.

Speaker Change: It's a confluence of a number of things coming together that caused impairments.

Speaker: So a theme around updates to prices and rates, coupled with some other things that are going on. For example, one of the things I would talk about, I think in the stock exchange announcement, we do reference BPX. We were out in Denver; we are unwavering in our confidence with regard to BPX. There's a couple of things going on in that number, and it's price and the discount rate, but it's also some acreage swaps that's driving that.

Speaker Change: I seem around updates to prices and rates and coupled with some some of the things that are going on for example, one of the things I would I would talk about them I think in the stock exchange announcement, we do reference the PX.

Speaker Change: We were out in Denver, where we are unwavering in our confidence with regard to <unk>, yes, there's a couple of things going on in that number and its price and discount rate, but it is also some acreage swaps that's driving that say you shouldn't interpret the impairment is having any impact on our EBITDA targets. In 2025 is there are some changes on reserves we may see.

Speaker: So you shouldn't interpret the impairments as having any impact on our EBITDA targets in 2025. If there are some changes in reserves, we may see some downward trend in terms of volumes from one part of our portfolio, but they're offset by upward trends in other parts of the portfolio. So we're comfortable.

Some some downward trend in terms of volumes from one part of our portfolio, but theyre offset by upward trends in other parts of the portfolio I think we're comfortable.

Speaker: And then on your second question, Martin, look, we welcome constructive engagement with all shareholders. I think that's an important thing as a publicly traded company we think about. We disagree with their assertions.

Speaker Change: And then on the on your second question Martin look we welcome constructive engagement with all shareholders. So I think that's an important thing as a publicly traded company we think about.

Speaker Change: We disagree with their assertions, we just disagree with them if I'm honest, we run an integrated model and I think you've heard me talk about immigration quite a bit today, and we think we do it fairly well, we're really proud to be bringing light source B P. M and has a strong track record of delivery and it's a top five solar producer globally.

Speaker: We just disagree with them, if I'm honest. We run an integrated model. I think you've heard me talk about integration quite a bit today. And we think we do it fairly well.

Speaker: We're really proud to be bringing LightSource BP in. It has a strong track record of delivery, and it's a top five solar producer globally.

Speaker: And it's achieved mid-teens returns, mid-teens returns over the past five years in their development model. And we've obviously been in power for a long time, 15 years now in the U.S. in integrated power onshore. So we do quite a lot with electricity across our business, coupling it with gas. I think we're number one in gas and number two or three on any day in power trading in the United States.

Speaker Change: And it's achieved mid teens returns mid teens returns over the past five years and they're developing a model and we've obviously been in power for a long time 15 years now in the U S.

Speaker Change: An integrated power of an integrated power onshore.

Speaker Change: So we do quite a lot with electricity across our business coupling it with gas I think we're number one in gas and number two or three on any day in power trading in the United States had on offshore wind.

Speaker: And on offshore wind, as we've said before, our returns hurdles on offshore wind are 6% to 8% on levered. But by the time you lever it up, by the time you farm it down and bring in a partner, by the time you integrate it into our business, you're well into double-digit returns. And that competes well with the rest of our business. So we're happy with our strategy. Direction is unchanged.

Speaker Change: As we've said before our returns hurdles on offshore wind or 6% to 8% unlevered, but by the time you lever it up by the time you farm it down and bring in a partner by the time you are integrated into our business, you're well into double digit returns and that competes well with the rest of our business and so we're happy with our strategy direction is unchanged, you'll see us be much more focus.

Speaker: You'll see us be much more focused, much simpler, and very, very returns-focused. But we're very happy with the direction of travel, and the shareholders I talked to are happy. Thank you. Next question, room?

Speaker Change: It's much simpler and very very returns focused but we're very happy with the direction of travel and the shareholders I talked to are happy as well. Thank you for the question.

Speaker Change: Next question.

Speaker Change: Yes.

Speaker Change: Absolutely.

Speaker Change: Absolutely.

Speaker Change: Wow.

Speaker Change: Inventories at the current levels.

Speaker Change: Sure.

Speaker Change: None of the law.

Speaker Change: Paul.

Speaker Change: Sure.

Okay.

Speaker Change: Okay.

Speaker Change: Yeah.

Speaker Change: Alright.

Speaker Change: Yes.

Speaker Change: The reasons behind the increase.

Speaker Change: Great.

Speaker Change: Okay.

Speaker Change: How much.

Speaker Change: How are you doing so on and so.

Speaker Change: So forth, perhaps you can help me I'm, sorry, if you've taken a microphone.

Speaker: I'm going to turn to my customers' names as well. Do you want to ask the second one while I just look at the house, do you think? Yeah, and the second one is, it goes back to the customer business and just, you know... 2019 the guidance for 25 with 7 billion of EBITDA from the 5 billion base, for watching, and transitioning growth engines in that business. There's obviously something that comes from travel, but help me bridge the gap. Sure, why don't I take the second one while Kate looks at the working capital question? On CNM, we have a target to get to $7 billion in 2025. I feel okay about it. I think it's the way I'd say it. We're four and a bit right now, and travel centers come in for a full year.

Speaker Change: I was gonna types of I guess, what I'm, saying.

Speaker Change: There is a second one.

Speaker Change: Until towards the second one while I just look at the how should I say.

Speaker Change: And the second one is it goes back to the customers business and just you know it.

Speaker Change: 2019, the gardens for $25 7 billion of EBITDA from the 5 billion base.

Speaker Change: For years, one three years along with.

$4 3 billion or so of EBIT, you're indicating 1 billion will show a further improvement from the transition growth engines in that business. There's obviously something that comes from travelers.

Speaker Change: But help me bridge the gap sure why don't I take the second one while I'm, while Kate looks at the working capital question.

Speaker Change: On C. N M. We have a target to get two 7 billion in 2025.

Speaker Change: I feel okay about it I think is the way I'd say it we're at four and a bit right now travel centers comes in for a full year.

Speaker: Castrol has now started to show a trend, five quarters in a row, gradually creeping up. That's good. Convenience is growing 9% year on year. That's good, and that continues. Electrification moving from a loss to positive.

Speaker Change: Castro has now started to show a trend five quarters in a row gradually creeping up that's good.

Speaker Change: <unk> growing 9% year on year, that's good and that continues electrification moving from a loss to positive. So that's a lot of small movements, we see that start to drive it up is something we don't control is the fuel margin and the fuel margins have been unusual in this time period.

Speaker: So it's a lot of small movements we see that start to drive it up. But something we don't control is the fuel margin, and fuel margins have been unusual in this time period.

Speaker: They've swung into the refineries as opposed to into the service stations itself. I can't predict how that's going to turn out in 2025. I just really can't predict that.

Speaker Change: Swung into the refineries as opposed to into the into the service stations itself.

Speaker Change: Can't predict how that's going to turn out in 2025, I, just really can't predict that but theres, probably a billion of swing on that so you might see a number of six to seven and C. N M and twenty-five but the other billions likely to be in the refineries instead I just can't predict that Lucas because it's really it's it's difficult to predict where that margin is swinging up and down that.

Speaker: But there's probably a billion swing on that. So you might see a number of six to seven in CNM in 2025, but the other billion is likely to be in the refineries instead. I just can't predict it, Lucas, because it's really difficult to predict where that margin is swinging up and down that value chain. So because we run an integrated value chain, I feel comfortable with 46 to 49. It just may be six as opposed to seven in CNM, and it may be a bit higher inside our refineries. So that's how I feel comfortable that I can see that path.

Value chain, so because we run an integrated value chain I feel comfortable with 46 to 49. It just may be six as opposed to seven and C. N M and it may be a bit higher inside our refineries. So that's how I, that's how I get comfortable that I can see that path.

Speaker: It's been a tremendously challenging time period for that business. When you think about COVID and the lack of travel, when you think about how long the lockdowns occurred inside China, when you think of the inflationary pressures and the recession, it's been a hard slog for Emma and the team. But I now feel they're back up and on it, and we're really starting to try and digitize offshoring into that business as well. So that'll be another lever that we get there. So that's how I'm thinking about it, Lucas. Kate, over to you on WCAP.

Speaker Change: It's been a tremendously challenging time period for that business. When you think about COVID-19 and lack of travel when you think about how long the Mark downs occurred inside China.

Speaker Change: When you think of the inflationary pressures.

Speaker Change: Pressures on the recession its been a hard slog for Emma and the team, but I now feel their backup in on it and we're really starting to try and digitization offshoring into that business as well so that'll be another lever that we get there. So that's what I'm thinking about it Lucas Titova to U M. W cap, yeah. So on working capital in terms of the.

Speaker: Yeah, so on working capital, in terms of the detailed notes around what's going on in underlying working capital, the $9 billion release is really a function of what happened back in 2022, where we saw that huge spike in gas prices. That's now largely unwound. As you've heard me say this morning, we feel we've got about a billion dollars left of unwind to come through, which is going to be one change in working capital going forward in 2024. But the $9 billion that you see in the 23 results today is largely a function of what happened in 22 and the unwind of that position. We understand. Thank you for tuning in.

Speaker Change: The data room nights around what's going on in underlying working capital of 9 billion release is really a function of what happened back in 2022, where we saw about huge spike in gas prices. That's now largely unwind as you've heard me say this morning, we feel we've got about $1 billion. The rest of them want to come through which is going to be one change in the working capital going forward in 2024.

But they 9 billion that you stay in the twenty-three results today as largely a function of what happens in 'twenty, two and the unwind of that position.

Speaker Change: We understand each other.

Speaker Change: One 3 billion.

Speaker: Sorry, boom in inventories etc etc in 2022, another 3.3 billion this year which I think flows out, largely working capital associated. A chunk of it last year was LNG. Much of that money has come back. I'm still unclear as to why the negatives in the cash flow were of that scale, and they seem to be predominantly around inventory. Or am I just misunderstood?

Speaker Change: Okay.

Alright.

Speaker Change:

Speaker Change: We can take it offline.

Speaker Change: Yeah.

Speaker Change: Yes.

Speaker Change: Billion of outflow.

Speaker Change: Inventories et cetera, et cetera in 2022 another $3 3 billion this year, which are there.

Speaker Change: Assumed to be working capital.

Speaker Change: Flows out largely working capital associated a chunk of it last year was LNG much of that money has come back I'm still unclear as to why the negatives and the cash flow or of that scale and they seem to be predominantly around inventory or if I misunderstood, but say that misunderstood there will be movements in inventory there'll be changes in EM and valuation of <unk>.

Speaker: There will be movements in inventory. There'll be changes in valuation of RINs, of emissions allowances, and all those kinds of things flowing through German MOT. We can take you through a checklist and take you through how it builds up if that's helpful, but I'd suggest we do that offline. Now. I'll sign at the back of the room, please.

Speaker Change: Tens of emissions allowances and all those kind of things slides very German M. O. K. If we can we can tell you is your Iraq and X take me through how it builds up if that's helpful. But it's just we did offline.

Speaker Change: Lucas.

Speaker Change: Now.

Speaker Change: I'll find at the back of the room. Please.

Speaker: Thanks Murray. Can I just ask you to sort of focus on the theme today of operational delivery in the next couple of years and sort of scale back on M&A to some extent. But, you know, you find yourself with a pretty strong balance sheet at a time when high rates are putting a lot of stress on transition players and also perhaps in the US, US shale. There's a lot of private players trying to exit, you know, but how do you think about utilizing that balance sheet versus the option of buybacks, which is where you're choosing to allocate? Yep, thanks Al.

Speaker Change: Thanks Marie could occur.

Speaker Change: Is it a focus.

Speaker Change: The theme today is about operational delivery, a couple of years and sort of scaled back in M&A to some extent.

Speaker Change: But you know you find yourself with a pretty strong balance sheet.

Speaker Change: At a time of high rates is putting a lot of stress on transition plays.

Speaker Change: And also perhaps in the U S U S shale.

Speaker Change: It was a lot of private players trying to exit.

Speaker Change: How do you think about utilizing that balance sheet versus the option of buybacks, which is where you're choosing to allocate yep. Thanks al.

Speaker: I guess I start from the position that we've already done a lot. And there are only so many of these things you can do at once and deliver them effectively. So we're probably, we've probably got one or two more in us for the next couple years. And then that's about the saturation point where you can actually integrate these things effectively. That's how, that's the starting thought I have. I'm very counter-cyclical.

Speaker Change: I guess I start from the position that we've done a lot.

Speaker Change: We've already done a lot.

Speaker Change: With EDF light source R. K a T a.

Speaker Change: And there are only so many of these things you can do it once.

And deliver them effectively.

So we're probably we've probably got one or two more in us for the next couple of years and then that's about the saturation point that you can actually integrate these things effectively that's how that's the starting thought I have I'm very countercyclical. That's why you saw US do my source PPE when we did because it was a nice countercyclical opportunity.

Speaker: That's why you saw us do Light Source BP when we did because it was a nice counter-cyclical opportunity. So I'm very, and TA as well, so I'm very focused on when you can do counter-cyclical opportunities. So I am sympathetic to that.

Speaker Change: So I'm very and Ta as well so I'm very focused on when you can do countercyclical opportunities so I'm sympathetic to that.

Speaker: But there's just so much the corporation can absorb at once and get the systems right, the processes right, the culture right. That's what's so critical for us. Natural gas in the US, let's see where gas prices go, certainly there's the chance that gas prices get suppressed. Would you think about doing something counter-cyclical and using gas if an opportunity came up? Maybe, but I've got 22 TCF of natural gas inside BPX right now between the Haynesville and the Eagleford, so it would almost have to be, you know, super cheap or free for me to contemplate that given that we've got so many years of development ahead of us with natural gas, with the resources we have in the best place in the United States right now.

Speaker Change: But there's just some only so much the corporation can absorb at once and get the systems right. The processes. The culture right. That's that's what's so critical for us.

Speaker Change: Natural gas in the U S.

Speaker Change: Let's see where gas prices go certainly theres the chance that gas prices get suppressed would you think about doing something countercyclical in gas if an opportunity came up maybe but I've got 22 Tcf of natural gas inside BP X right now between the Haynesville and the Eagle Ford.

Speaker Change: So it would almost have to be super cheap or free for me to contemplate that given that we've got so many years of development ahead of us with natural gas with the resources we have in.

Speaker Change: In the best place in the United States right now so.

Speaker: So I believe in counter-cyclical, that's what we've done. We're probably getting close to the limit of what we can do to effectively integrate it, and that's what's the driving consideration in my mind as I think about slowing down a little bit moving forward. Hope that helps. Sorry, you've got one more follow-up. I'm sorry, Guy.

Speaker Change: I believe in countercyclical, that's what we've done we're probably getting close to the limit of what we can do to effectively integrate it and that's what's the driving consideration in my mind as I think about slowing down a little debt moving forward hope that helps out sorry, you've got one more follow up.

Speaker Change: Yes, actually more liquids in Permian I'm, sorry, Jason Hershiser metal <unk> more liquids in Permian rather than guess, yeah liquids I think we've got eight to 10 years of war on my right now with infill drilling things countercyclical, So you'll do acreage swaps, which we're doing all the time and date because I think we've done three big acreage swaps over the past few years that we don't talk.

Speaker: As you met on BPX, more liquids and the Permian rather than gas. Yeah. Liquids, I think we've got eight to ten years of runway right now with infill drilling. I'll think it's counter-cyclical.

Speaker: So you'll do acreage swaps, which we do all the time in BPX. I think we've done three big acreage swaps over the past few years that we don't talk about very much. So certainly they're focused on those types of things. But with oil around 80 bucks, I'd wait until oil dipped before I did that.

Speaker Change: About very much so certainly they're focused on those types of things, but with oil around 80 Bucks I'd wait till all depths before I did that I'm sure all that began to $60 sometime in the future at some time I can't predict and that's that's the time when you use the stronger balance sheet to go countercyclical is how how I think about it all thank.

Speaker: I'm sure oil will dip again to $60 in the future at some time. But I can't predict that. And that's that's the time when you use a stronger balance sheet to go counter-cyclical. That's how I think about it. Thank you. Hi, it's Peter Low from Redburn Atlantic. First question just on BPX; it was a strong production number in the quarter. Can you talk a bit about when you're expecting the next two central processing facilities to start up, and should we think that when they come online, that will result in kind of an immediate step up in production, or are they filled more gradually? And then the second question was just on LNG and the target to increase that portfolio to 25 million tons. Does that include any volumes from Venture Global?

Speaker Change: Thank you.

Speaker Change: Okay.

Speaker Change: Chris.

Chris: Hi, Peter low from Redburn Atlantic first question just on beef he acts as a strong production number in the quarter can you talk a bit about when you expect in the next two central processing facilities to start up and should we think that kind of when they come online that will result in kind of an immediate step.

Chris: Up in production or are they felt more gradually and then the second question was just on LNG and the target to increase that portfolio 25 million tonnes.

Chris: Does that include any volumes for venture global and U can you, perhaps update just what's happening there. Thanks.

Speaker: And can you perhaps update just what's happening there? Thanks. Thanks Peter, on BPX, the next two facilities come online; Checkmate is tracking well to be online this year, and the final one comes online next year. The way to hold it is that we're paying around about $500 million of our capital in BPX into completing this infrastructure build out. That will then allow us to fill it, which is really important, so a drill and fill perspective.

Yeah. So you know started maybe that's yep right yeah. Thanks, Peter B, TX Yeah say the next two facilities come online checkmate <unk> is tracking well to be online this year and the final one comes online next year.

Hey to how old it is that we're paying at around about a $500 million of our capital and be PX into completing this infrastructure build out that will then allow us to to fill it which is very important so I'd drill infill perspective, and then we'll be able to take that capital a need to put into our.

Speaker: And then we'll be able to take that capital and use it to put it into our effective production drilling activity rather than using it to carry on completing the infrastructure, so that's going to help as well. So that's kind of the way to hold it: we're going to be able to fill those gathering units, and then we'll be able to redirect that capital to more productive uses as well. Great. Thanks, Kate.

Chris: Our effective production drilling activity rather than using it to carry on completing the infrastructure side, that's going to help as well so that that's kind of the way to how old. It is we're going to be able to fill those gathering units and then we're going to be able to redirect that capital to more productive uses as well great. Thanks, Thanks, Kate on LNG build out where 'twenty three and 'twenty three.

Speaker: On LNG build-out, we're 23 and 23. 25 and 25 is the target. We expect to get additional volumes, as you say, from Venture, Tortue, and Beach. But if you go check the numbers, those add up to way more than 25.

Chris: 25, and 25 is the target.

Chris: We expect to get additional venture and additional volumes as you say from venture torture and beach. If you go check the numbers those add up to a way more than 25. So that's why we feel very comfortable with 25 and 25 I'll be surprised if we're not higher than that but that's not set too hard a performance contract for a for Carol in the room.

Speaker: So that's why we feel very comfortable with 25 and 25. I'll be surprised if we're not higher than that, but let's not set too hard a performance contract for Carol in the room. As far as Venture itself is concerned, it continues in a commercial dispute. I'm not going to get into any details on it other than to say that we will enforce our rights rigorously. Great. One more question in the room, then we'll go back to the line. Thank you. This is Kim Fustier from HSBC.

Chris: As far as venture itself. It continues in commercial dispute I'm not going to get into any details on that other than to say that we will enforce our rights rigorously.

Chris: Great.

Speaker Change: One more question in the room and then we'll go back to the lines.

Speaker Change: Yeah.

Speaker Change: Yeah.

Speaker Change: Okay.

Speaker Change: Thank you, it's Kim <unk> from HSBC and you wrote off the vast majority of your initial $1 1 billion investment into U S. Offshore wind was the economic JV.

Speaker: You wrote off the vast majority of your initial $1.1 billion investment in U.S. offshore wind, that was the Equinor JV. What's the path forward for those projects, and do you think enough has changed in your decision-making processes to ensure that something like this doesn't happen again going forward? Secondly, I just wanted to ask about the robustness of project economics in the low-carbon space in the U.S. if the incentives were to change for whatever reason. Thank you. Sure. I guess maybe I'll tackle both of those.

Kim: What's the path forward for fit for those projects and do you think enough has changed in your decision making processes to ensure that that's something like this doesn't happen again and going forward.

Kim: I just wanted to ask about the robustness of project economics.

Kim: And the low carbon space in the U S and the incentives were to change for whatever reason. Thank you.

Kim: Sure.

Speaker Change: I guess, maybe I'll tackle both of those on the east coast venture with Ecuador.

Speaker: On the East Coast venture with Equinor, over time, what we've decided is that integrated delivery models are much more important for us than a PPA-like model. Empire really is a PPA model, so it was time to divorce ourselves and let Equinor carry forward with that. They want to do that, and for ourselves, we'll step away from that one. In exchange, we got some land that we can monetize, as well as Beacon, which is 2.5 gigawatts.

Speaker Change: Over time, what we've decided is that integrated delivery models are much more important for us than a PPA like model MP.

Speaker Change: Empire really has a PPA model. So it was time to divorce ourselves about Ecuador carry forward with that they want to do that and for ourselves we will step away from that one in exchange make out some lands that we can monetize as well as a beacon beacon is two and a half gigawatts. It stands the transfer integration.

Speaker: It stands the chance for integration. So we're the number one gas trader in the United States, number two or three in power. We see the capacity to absorb that into that book and create some interesting value. We'll take our time to do this. We're not in any rush.

Speaker Change: So we're number one gas trader in the United States number two or three in power. We see is we see the capacity to absorb that into that book and create some some interesting value. We will take our time to do this we're not in any rush. The U S really needs to build out and of course, we'll bring in partners et cetera over time.

Speaker: The U.S. really needs to build out. And, of course, we'll bring in partners, et cetera, over time. So that's how we're thinking about that. As far as decision-making quality goes, I think back in 2020, we were taking this as a first step into the basin, recognizing that we were paying a premium to learn. And we move on from that. I think, the best way for me to describe it moving forward is economics and low-carbon incentives, et cetera. I think we just need to remember that incentives exist everywhere inside the energy space, across the United States and across most countries in the world. There is an equal incentive in oil and gas called the Intangible Drilling Credit, as there is in RINs, as there is in the IRA. So the U.S. is a place that incentivizes energy provision across the wide range of it. Sometimes we get a little bit forgetful, and we think it's only new energies that have those incentives. But that is not true.

Speaker Change: So that's how we're thinking about that as far as decision, making quality I think back in 'twenty 'twenty.

Speaker Change: We were taking this as a first step into the basin recognizing that we were paying a premium to learn we learned.

Speaker Change: And we move on from that is I think the best way for me to describe it moving forward.

Economics, and low carbon incentives et cetera, I think we just need to remember then incentives exist everywhere inside the energy space across the United States and across most countries in the world. There is an equal incentive in oil and gas called the intangible drilling credit as there is on returns as there is on the IRR. So the U S is a place that incentivize.

Speaker Change: As energy provision across the wide range of it sometimes we get a little bit forgetful, and we think it's only new energies that have those incentives that is not true.

Speaker: As far as the new energies themselves, I think, Carol, with the Archaea model, we feel very good without the incentives to drive forward well above our returns thresholds if those incentives moved away. But, to be honest, those incentives have been in place since the early 1970s. They've come and gone in different guises, but biogas and biofuels in particular have had all kinds of incentives, if not at the federal level, then at the state level, as different constituencies want to transition.

Speaker Change: As far as the new energies themselves I think Carol within our care model, we feel very good without the incentives to drive forward well above our return thresholds if those incentives moved away but to be honest those incentives have been in place since the early 19 seventies, they've come and gone in different guises, but but biogas in biofuels in particular.

Speaker Change: That all kinds of incentives if not at the federal level and at the state level.

Speaker Change: As different constituencies want to transition.

Speaker: Hydrogen, in particular, right now, will be a place we have to watch what happens. New regulations came out from the IRS that we're providing comments on. We'll have to see how that progresses and what the nation decides to do. They have the choice to continue to accelerate, or they have the choice to decelerate that particular space, and we'll just have to pragmatically react to how the United States decides to move these things forward. But we have lots of opportunities inside Europe, lots of opportunities inside Australia, so we can always pivot to what the best returns are in the portfolio. Hope that helps with those questions. Why don't we go back online now? Ryan, please.

Speaker Change: Hydrogen in particular right now will be a place we have to watch what happens new regulations came out from the IRS that were providing comments on we'll just see have to we'll have to see how that progresses and what the nation strip decides to do they have the choice to continue to accelerate or they have the choice to decelerate that that particular space.

And we'll just have to pragmatically react to how the United States decides to move these things forward.

Speaker Change: But we have lots of opportunities inside Europe lots of opportunities inside Australia. So we can always pivot to what the best returns are inside the portfolio hope that helps with those questions why don't we go back online now Ryan please.

Speaker: Thanks. Maybe a couple for me? On the refining side of the business, product results were quite weak this quarter. You've had a lot of moving pieces in the portfolio in recent years. And even though margins were weaker in the fourth quarter than they've been of late, they were still, particularly seasonally, relatively solid and above mid cycle in most places. And you posted a loss in the business. As we think about the earnings power of your refining business, can you help us understand, for the quarter, maybe some of the moving pieces; were there any office specific trends that might have been headwinds? Was it a trading issue? A matter of specific kit?

Ryan: Hey, thanks.

Ryan: Maybe a couple for me on the refining side of the business.

Ryan: Privates results were quite weak this quarter, you've had a lot of moving pieces in the portfolio in recent years.

Ryan: And even though margins were weaker in the fourth quarter than they've been of late they were still.

Ryan: Particularly seasonally relatively relatively solid and above mid cycle in most places.

Ryan: And you've opened last in the business.

Ryan: As we think about the earnings power of your refining business can you help us understand on the quarter maybe.

Ryan: Maybe some of the moving pieces were there one offs or specific trends.

Ryan: Rather than headwinds, whether they're trading issue.

Ryan: A matter of specific yet or how should we think about what was there was not maybe to kind of repeat of all this on this fourth quarter.

Speaker: Or how should we think about, you know, what was or was not maybe kind of repeatable in this fourth quarter? And then a second question: on light source BP, you referenced mid-teens returns over the last five years, which is, which is very impressive. We don't have a lot of visibility on that, but maybe we'll get more going forward. But as you look over the next five years, could you maybe talk about some things that have or have not changed in the environment, particularly as you think about the build and farm down business? Are there, you know, margins compressing on that side or not?

Speaker Change: Then a second question.

Speaker Change: Unlike those P. P. You reference mid teens returns over the last five years, which is which is very impressive.

Speaker Change: We don't have a lot of visibility on that or maybe more like orbit as you look over the next five years could you maybe talk about some things that have or have not changed in the environment, particularly as you think about the build and farm down business.

Speaker Change: Are there.

Speaker Change: Our margins compressing that outside or lab.

Speaker: How do you think about margins over the next five, you know, based on trends in that business versus the last five? Thanks. Super. Thanks, Ryan. Kate, do you want to take refineries? I'll take light sources.

Speaker Change: How do we think about margins over the next five based on trends in that business versus the last five.

Super Thanks, Ryan Kate you want to take refineries I'll take that it's worth a shot thanks.

Speaker: Sure. Thanks, Ryan. Good morning.

Kate: Thanks, Ryan Good morning. Thanks for the question in terms of the refining portfolio, we did signal a significant level of turnaround activity and maintenance in the fourth quarter and it was a very heavy quarter as I said I think in my prepared remarks, we had a full site turnaround. The Caspian. We also had unit level towers that to other refineries.

Speaker: Thank you for the question. In terms of the refining portfolio, we did signal a significant level of turnaround activity and maintenance in the fourth quarter, and it was a very busy quarter.

Speaker: As I said in my prepared remarks, we had a full site turnaround at Castillon. We also had unit level tiles at two other refineries. So if you look at what's going on, I think credit to the team, our availability is really high. So we're at 96.1% for the quarter. However, our utilisation, as a consequence of the level of activity in those refinery turnarounds, was down to around 84%.

Kate: So if you look at what's going on I think credit to the team availability is already high and say we're at 96, 1% for the quarter are you to that utilization as a consequence of the level of activity in those refinery turnarounds with fans.

Speaker: That's really what's driving it, coupled with the slight drop in margins that you recognize. But yeah, it's around the level of activity that we are putting through those refineries to upgrade and make sure that they are maintained and solid, as opposed to what's going on in the refinery, in the refining margin environment. Yeah, I think if you adjusted for those, Kate, they'd be quite comfortably profitable in line with expectation. As far as light source BP and trends go, so as I talked about over the past few years, that's what the return cycle's been. As interest rates have risen in 2023, it's been quite difficult to get prices and interest rates to match in a develop and flip model. However, in Australia, light source was able to move transactions forward. In Europe, they were able to move transactions forward, so there wasn't a disparity between the price and the discount rate.

Kate: Around 84%, that's really what's driving it coupled with the slight drop in margins that you recognized but yeah. It's it's around the level of activity that way off putting say those refineries to upgrade and make sure that they are maintained and sell it as opposed to what's going on in the refinery and they're providing margin environment.

Kate: If you adjusted for those case that'd be quite comfortably profitable in line with expectation as.

Kate: As far as a light source b P and trends so as I talked about over the past few years. That's what the return cycle has been as interest rates have risen in 'twenty to 'twenty three it's been quite difficult to get prices.

Kate: And interest rates to match, an undeveloped and flip model.

Kate: In Australia light source was able to move transactions forward in Europe. They were able to move transactions forward. So there wasn't a disparity between price and discount rate, but the United States was a challenge and it was a challenge.

Speaker: But the United States was a challenge, and it was a challenge on pricing to get prices high enough to match the discount rates. So they slowed down the program in the United States. That'll be something that picks back up as we see interest rates drop through 2024 and 2025. You guys will be able to guess interest rate trends better than I will, but we all read the same stuff in the media, I am sure. So I think that's one particular trend.

Kate: On pricing to get price high enough to match the discount rates. So they slowed down the program in the United States that'll be something that picks back up as we see interest rates drop through 24, and 25, you guys won't be able to guess interest rate trends better than I will but we all we all read the same stuff in the media I am sure. So I think that's one particular.

Kate: Trend.

Speaker: We do see lots of capacity for solar. There are more and more countries that are starting to develop solar, so I don't feel supply chain bottlenecks are happening, and demand just continues to skyrocket. And I think the especially interesting trend is gen AI, and I think the more and more that corporations and individuals use gen AI, we'll see more and more demand for power. And I think we're going to need every little bit of renewables and natural gas we possibly can to help power the world's systems, given that expansive demand inside gen AI. So I hope that gives you a super high-level overview, Ryan, for the question. Anybody back in the room? Irene?

Kate: We do see lots of capacity for solar there are more and more.

Countries that are starting to develop solar so I don't feel supply chain bottlenecks happening and demand just continues to skyrocket and I think especially the trend that is interesting is Jenny I and I think the more and more of the corporation's individuals' use Gen AI will see more and more demand for power and I think we're going to need every little bit of renewables and natural.

Kate: As we possibly can to help.

Kate: Power the world's systems, given that our expansive demand ensign Gen. II. So hope that hope that gives a super high level overview Ryan for the question.

Speaker Change: Anybody back in the room I mean, sorry.

Speaker: Sorry. All right, come see you behind the podium, Irene. Thank you, Irene Himona, Société Générale. Marie, you highlighted how moving from origination to execution is going to be key to delivering operational excellence. I'm curious as to how you do that in practice.

Speaker Change: I can see you're behind the podium Murray.

Speaker Change: Yes.

Murray: Thank you I think came on as I said, there's no and.

Speaker Change: You highlighted how moving from origination to execution is going to be key to delivering operational.

Speaker Change: Operational excellence I'm curious as to.

Murray: How you do that in practice, so what levers do you have to Jive is sort of culture of work and casual change day to day.

Speaker: So, what levers do you have to drive a sort of cultural and working culture change day to day? My second question: you highlighted throughout the presentation the amazing volatility we've obviously had in the last three or four years. If we do find ourselves in a world of 60, I understand we will still get 80% of selfless cash as buyback. What should I think of the flexibility of the 16 billion of CapEx which you announced today in that scenario? Thank you. Yep, great. Thanks, Irene. Culture.

Murray: And my second question you highlighted throughout the presentation.

Murray: Amazing volatility, we've obviously had in the last three or four years and.

Murray: If we do find ourselves in a world of 60, how I understand we will still get 80% of surplus cash is buyback how should I think of the flexibility of the 16 billion of Capex, which you announced today.

In that scenario. Thank you yep, great. Thanks Irene.

Speaker Change: Culture Hum I suppose I suppose that's what its where we as leaders inside the team place our emphasis do we place the emphasis and the encouragement for <unk>.

Speaker: I suppose it's where we as leaders inside the team place our emphasis. Do we place the emphasis and encourage new stuff, or do we encourage people to get on with it and move forward? So there's something about, as a leadership team, we need to shift our focus to the execution side. And then, equally importantly, how do we align third-party contractors on that basis? How do we make sure the supply chains are robust? And how do we gain confidence that what we're doing will be as efficient as it possibly can be? So I don't think it's a material challenge to start constructing.

Speaker Change: New stuff or do we encourage people to get on with them get on with sanction and move forward. So there's something about as a leadership team we need to shift our focus to the execution side.

And then equally importantly, how.

Speaker Change: How do we align and third party contractors on that basis, how do we make sense make sure the supply chains are robust and how do we gain confidence in what we're doing.

Speaker Change: We'll be as efficient as it possibly can be so I don't I don't think it's a material challenge to start constructing the material challenge will be to turn off the old stuff and all the other things. That's the that's the material challenge that we have that each and every one of US as leaders is constantly focusing on you know I'm looking at Leann, who runs our digital.

Speaker: The material challenge will be to turn off the old stuff and all the other things. That's the material challenge that we have, that each and every one of us as leaders is constantly focusing on. I'm looking at Leanne, who runs our digital. Everybody wants to spend lots of money on digital and do their favorite programs.

Speaker Change: Everybody wants to spend lots of money on digital and do their favorite programs. The key is in really really getting control of that and focusing them down to only the big things that matter. So.

Speaker: The key is in really, really getting control of it and focusing it down to only the big things that matter. So I don't know, maybe not every company is like us, but that's always our challenge: turning off the old stuff. On $60 a world, we actually have quite a bit of flexibility inside our, you know, you change your oil and gas drilling plans, and we've got quite a bit of flexibility across the portfolio to swing CapEx down materially. If we needed to, Kate, I don't know, would you like to add anything to that one?

Speaker Change: I don't know if maybe not every companies like us, but that's always our challenges turning off the old stuff.

Speaker Change: $60 World, we actually have quite a bit of flexibility.

Speaker Change: Inside Orange.

You change your oil and gas drilling salt drilling plans and we've got quite a bit of flexibility across the portfolio to swing capex down materially if we needed to Kate I don't know would you like to add anything to that one no I think that I think that's absolutely right Mara I think where we started 2023, we're at 16 to 18 and as we went through we tightened that write down it well that by the time it without the <unk>.

Speaker: No, I think that's absolutely right, Murray. I think where we started in 2023, we were at 16 to 18. And as we went through, we tightened that right down. And by the time we got to 3Q, we were staying around 16.

Kate: You were saying around 16, and I think I think that's.

Speaker: And I think for me, the most important thing is creating the right level of focus. As you'd expect at this stage, we've probably got a fair bit of CapEx committed for 2024, and as Murray said, we've got a lot more flexibility with regard to 25. And I would hold BPX as my big optionality within that frame to move things up and down if we need to make fast reactions.

Kate: For me the most important thing is is creating the right level of focus and as you would expect at this stage, we've probably got fab as Capex committed for 2024 and as most of you got a lot more flexibility with regard to 25 and I was how BP access my my big Optionality within that frame to move things up and down if we need to make fast reactions, but.

Speaker: But what I would say is that the strength of the balance sheet, the resilience we've created as a consequence of that means that we don't have to make sharp reactions, and we can take our time. But we have flexibility. Great. Thanks, Irene. Let's go online again. Bertrand, please.

Kate: What I would say is that the strength of the balance sheet. The resilience. We've created as a consequence of that means that we don't have to make short reactions and we can take our time, but we have flexibility.

Speaker Change: Thanks Arne.

Speaker Change: Let's go to online again Bertrand please.

Speaker: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Speaker Change: Yeah.

Speaker: Yes. Thank you for taking my question and congratulations on the result, Mary and Kate, and the clarity of the overall message. Two questions, if I may.

Bertrand: Yes, I don't know thank you for taking my question and congrats those are without merit and Kate and the clarity of the although one message.

Bertrand: Two question if I may ask one follow up on the on the offshore wind are do.

Speaker: One, a follow-up on offshore wind. Do you have plans for FID in the next two years, for example, in the UK? And the second question is, as you mentioned, the reserve replacement ratio was quite low for both 22 and 23 reserved to production life.

Bertrand: Do you have plans for a F. I E. In the next two years by example in the U K and the second question is as you mentioned our reserve replacement ratio was.

Bertrand: West quite low for Bush 'twenty, two and 'twenty three a reserve to production life.

Speaker: SEC's basis is just around eight years, and this is, by the way, where you want to sit in the coming years. Can you remind us why eight years is the right number for BP going forward? Thank you.

Bertrand: SCC basis is just around eight years and she she is by the way where you want to to sit in the coming years can you remind us.

Bertrand: Swie eight years.

Bertrand: Number four BP going forward.

Speaker: Great. I can take the reserve replacement ratio. Kate, do you want to think about FIDs for the UK?

Thank you great. Thanks for trying to.

Speaker Change: I can take the reserve replacement ratio Kate do you want to think about F&I days for Africa.

Kate: Okay. Yeah. So I would just like the U K offshore wind projects are progressing well and we've got good clarity around grid connections, which is on the most important thing.

Speaker: The UK offshore wind projects are progressing well. We've got good clarity around grid connections, which is one of the most important things. So we'll be moving through that. In terms of FID, probably not this side of the end of 2025, but probably early once we get to the other side of that.

Kate: They will be moving through that and tons of F. I D.

Kate:

Kate: Probably not decided at the end of 'twenty 'twenty, five, but probably early once they get to the other side of that I'd say, we're progressing well we've got clarity on great connections is the most important things to give us certainty as we move towards that five day, and we're working hard with making sure that the supply China startup.

Speaker: As I say, we're progressing well; we've got clarity on grid connections as the most important things to give us certainty as we move towards FID, and we're working hard to make sure that the supply chain is set up. However, there has been quite a lot of inflation inside the supply chain for offshore wind right across the remit of what we require.

Kate: There has been quite a lot of inflation inside the supply chain for offshore wind right across the room at all of what we require say where were managing that as we approach them every day and they say well, we'll take that decision as we get clarity on is we're confident on the returns situation and let's say how the political environment.

Speaker: So we're managing that as we approach FID, and as I say, we'll take that decision as we get clarity and as we're confident about the return situation. And let's see how the political environment shapes up in the UK over the next two years as well.

Kate: Shapes up in the U K over the next two years as well, but at the moment yeah towards the end of the two year time frame early following that is how we're thinking about it currently.

Speaker: But at the moment, yeah, towards the end of the two-year timeframe, early following that is how we're thinking about it currently. I think on the reserve replacement ratio, I'm happy at eight. We talked about eight at Denver.

Kate: Thank God reserve replacement ratio I'm happy at H, we talked about Denver.

Speaker: It's a conservative eight, I think, is a way to think about this. Over time, we've really, really tightened the definition of what reserves you can book to a place of conservatism where this eight would have probably been much higher a decade ago, say. So I think that's just the first thing to have in your mind. Second, I worry more about the proved developed reserve replacement ratio than I do about total proved reserves. And as long as you're 90% plus, I feel good about the ability to sustain a business of our scale. And when you see the ARA, you'll see that our numbers are looking very good on the proved developed replacement ratio. Moving forward then, obviously, all these sanctions will drive our PUD bookings up higher as we impose these things across the next two years. So I think there's just, it's a bit more conservative than it has been in the past. And that's why it feels okay to me, Bertrand. I hope that helps. Any more questions in the room? I got two more on online.

Kate: It's a conservative eight I think is a way to think about this over time, we've really really tightened the definition of what reserves you can book.

Kate: To a place of conservatism, where listen eaters would've probably been much higher a decade ago, saying. So I think that's just the first thing to have in your mind.

Kate: Second.

I worry more about proved developed reserve replacement ratio than I do total proved reserves.

Kate: And as long as you're 90% plus I feel good about the ability to sustain a business of our scale and when you see the Ara and you'll see that our numbers are looking very good on proved developed a replacement ratio.

Kate: Moving forward then obviously all the sanctions will drive our our pud bookings up higher as we sanction these things across the next two years. So I think there's just it's a bit more conservative than it has been in the past.

And that's why it feels okay to me.

Our trial hope that hope that helps.

Speaker Change: Any more questions in the room I got two more online.

Speaker Change: Yeah.

Speaker Change: Yeah.

Speaker: Transcription by Trans-Expert at Fiverr.com. And thank you, Giacomo Romeo Jeffries. The first question is on your convenience and EV charging EBDTA targets. Obviously, you don't give us a split, and it's unassembled. I would like to understand how much this outlook split between the two has changed in your mind over time. I've noticed that your customer touch points perhaps are not growing as fast as you thought, and other. I'm sorry, your definition of here on current market conditions in the context of your buyback plan very well captures the visibility. Just trying to understand, as you mentioned, Murray, it's a volatile macro environment. How much are you willing to lean on the balance sheet if there is a blip in the macro for a couple of quarters? And or should we look at this as an 80 percent chance on whatever the outlook for the year is? Go for it, Kate, and I'll sweep up on convenience and electrification.

Speaker Change: Thank you Giacomo Romeo Jefferies. First question is on your convenience and EV charging EBITDA targets, obviously, you don't give us a split and it's an assembled just.

Speaker Change: I'd like to understand how much these the outlook the split between the two is changing your mind overtime.

Speaker Change: Noticed that your customer touch points, perhaps are not growing as fast as you faults that that's for sure.

Speaker Change: So it's really impacted your convenience EBITDA growth, but perhaps you're accelerating growth on the oney recharging. So just try to understand how you're sort of you're thinking how you're going to get to those 25 and 30 targets in your mind and how that has changed and if I can ask a clarification on them.

Speaker Change: And you saw your definition on here on current market conditions in the context of your buyback plan.

Speaker Change: Very well come the visibility just trying to understand as you mentioned Mary it sets a volatile macro environment, how much willing are you to.

Speaker Change: We'll lean on the balance sheet to a <unk>.

Speaker Change: There is a blip in the macro for a for a couple of quarters and or should we look at these as an 80% on whatever is the outlook for the year.

Speaker Change: Deprecating I'll sweep up on convenience.

Speaker Change: Electrification.

Speaker: So, on current market conditions, I'll say what I said to start with, which is I would look at where our basket of commodities has been year-to-date. It gives you a really good sense of how we're thinking about that. We've got the ability to tolerate movement.

Speaker Change: So on current market conditions, all I'll say, what I said to start with which as I look at where our basket of commodities has been year to date and gives you a really good sense of how we're thinking about that.

Speaker Change: We've got the ability to tolerate movements youre going to see movements in art and all that going through the next four quarters of this year based on purely what's going on inside the business without even looking at the environment because of the weighting as capex in the first half and divestments and the fact that you're going to see it move around.

Speaker: You're going to see movements in our debt going through the next four quarters of this year based on purely what's going on inside the business without even looking at the environment because of the weighting of capex in the first half and divestments in the second half. So you're going to see it move around. I'm comfortable with that.

Speaker Change: I'm comfortable with that.

Speaker: Our net debt, at 20.9, gives us quite an ability to tolerate that movement. And, as I say, if we get a fundamental disconnect in the market, then maybe we'll take another look. But I think you should hold it as a fair degree of tolerance around the conditions that we've had today across oil, gas, and refining. And I suppose we've said that the 175 this quarter is done, and 175 and 175 in the next two quarters as well, not subject to market conditions, a fair degree of certainty. On convenience electrification, there are a lot of things that have moved over the past four years. I think just some highlights in our minds. We thought fleets would move first, but given recessionary pressures and some relief from governments, fleets have slowed down. Contrasted with that, consumers have moved faster. Mandates, preferences, whatever.

Speaker Change: Our net debt 29 gives us quite an ability to tolerate that movement and and as I say, if we get a fundamental disconnect in the market and maybe it will take another look but I think you should you should hold it as there's a fair degree of tolerance around they conditions that we've had today in front of oil gas and refining and.

Speaker Change: And I suppose we've said that the 175 this quarter is done and 175 and 175 in the next two quarters as well as some not subject to market conditions. So that's a fair degree of certainty on our community electrification.

Speaker Change: There are a lot of things that have moved over the past four years I think just some highlights in our mind, we thought fleets would move first.

Speaker Change: But given recessionary pressures on some early from governments fleets have slowed down.

Speaker Change: Contrasted with that consumers have been faster mandates preferences, whatever so we found herself over time, we thought we'd be doing fleets. As we started this it's actually drifted more towards individual as opposed to fleets. We started with thinking about 12 countries is where we'd focus for now given adoption levels were really focused on four countries U S U K, Germany.

Speaker: So we found ourselves over time; we thought we'd be doing fleets as we started this, but it's actually drifted more towards individuals as opposed to fleets. We started out thinking about 12 countries was where we'd focus. For now, given adoption levels, we're really focused on four countries: US, UK, Germany, China. And so you've seen us very, very focused on where the places that we think maximum adoption rates will happen. And we see it. You see the metrics on sales, et cetera. You can see that two of those countries are profitable already.

Speaker Change: China.

Speaker Change: And so you've seen us very very focused on where are the places that we think maximum adoption Rachel will happen and we see it you see that you see the metrics on sales etcetera, you can see the two of those countries are profitable already and we feel we feel very comfortable that we will move into profitability with the other countries as well.

Speaker: And we feel very comfortable that we'll move into profitability with the other countries as well. So those are the kind of changes. We've deployed less capital than we thought we would. Why?

So those are the kind of changes we've deployed less capital than we thought we would why because we concentrated down in four countries as opposed to going after 12 countries. So that's the EV side, but the 2020 five target, we're still saying get into profit in 2025, So no change to it just a bit less capital than we originally were would have been thinking.

Speaker: Because we concentrated down to four countries as opposed to going after 12 countries. So that's the EV side, but the 2025 target, we're still saying get into profit in 2025. So no change to it, just a bit less capital than we originally would have been thinking. On the convenience side, it's remained really robust. I'm really surprised about how robust convenience has been.

Speaker Change: On the convenience side, it's remained really robust I'm really surprised about how robust convenience has been X T. A growing 9% per year on gross margin. Despite the fact that you had COVID-19 Lockdown invasion recession, you know you've got a perfect storm for that business, but given the power of the brands that we have like a <unk>.

Speaker: XTA is growing 9% per year on gross margin despite the fact that you had COVID, lockdown, invasion, and recession. You know, you've got a perfect storm for that business. But given the power of the brands that we have, like Marks & Spencer here, and I can say the same for other countries, given the great work the teams are doing on digitizing, integrating the business in the US together, we've started to integrate AMPM with Fortins and TA together in a way that we haven't done in the past. You're just driving much more efficiency into that business. So what will happen, the 1.5 will obviously largely be convenience. And it's more convenience than I would have expected, to be honest, given the headwinds that we've faced. So I hope that helps a little bit. And you can always catch Emma afterwards to find out more from her. I think we're down to the last two questions online. Matt.

And Spencer here and I can say the same for other countries given the great work. The teams are doing on digitizing integrating the business in the U S. Together, we're starting to integrate a M. P M with Florence with Ta together in a way that we haven't in the past you just driving much more efficiency into that business.

So what will happen the 1.5, well, obviously largely big convenience and its more convenience than I would've expected to be honest given the headwinds that we faced so I hope that I hope that helps a little bit and you can always catch him afterwards to to find out more from her I think we're down to the last two questions online match.

Speaker: Go ahead. Great. Thanks both for taking the questions. I'm very pleased that I could.

Speaker Change: Ahead.

Speaker Change: Okay.

Speaker Change: Great. Thanks for taking my questions. Two please if I could on distributions. Firstly could you just talk about to what extent the change from 60% to 80% is reflective of more pro cyclical based confidence in medium to the macro and trading conditions and linked to that can we now think of the 80% is being fully.

Speaker: On distributions, firstly, can you just talk about to what extent the change from 60% to 80% is reflective of more pro-cyclical-based confidence in medium-term macro and trading conditions? And linked to that, can we now think of the 80% as being fully through the cycle as opposed to a more prolonged down-cycle scenario in the future starting to trigger the case for reverting back towards 60%? And then secondly, it feels like the emphasis on simplification and efficiency has been enhanced today, if anything, versus the recent past. Is that fair?

Speaker Change: Through cycle.

Speaker Change: As opposed to a more prolonged down cycle, its not ready or in the future starting to.

Speaker Change: Trigger the case for reverting back towards 60% and then secondly feels like the emphasis on simplification and efficiency has been in homes today, if anything versus the recent past is that fair and if so where do you see incremental opportunities that perhaps weren't called out as much in the balance.

Speaker: And if so, where do you see incremental opportunities that perhaps weren't called out as much in the past? Thanks. Great. Super. Kate, do you want to tackle the first one?

Speaker Change: Great Super.

Speaker Change: You want to tackle the first one.

Speaker: Yeah, thanks, Matt. Yeah, 80% I think very much through the cycle. If you think about where we've been since the inception of the share buyback, we're around 65% of surplus cash to share buybacks. And we've done that while making huge progress on our balance sheet. Our balance sheet is now in much better shape. We feel good about it. As I've said a number of times this morning, we can tolerate movements

Great Super: Yeah, Thanks, Matt Yeah.

Speaker Change: Yeah, 80% I think very much through cycle.

Super: If you think about why we have been since inception of the share buyback were around 65% of surplus cash to share buybacks.

Speaker Change: And we've done that while making huge progress on our balance sheet. Our balance sheet is now in much better shape, we feel good about that as I've said a number of times. This morning, we can tolerate movements and say, we feel huge confidence in our balance sheet, we feel huge confidence and ne business performance and the ongoing momentum in delivery.

Speaker: So, we feel huge confidence in our balance sheet. We feel huge confidence in the business performance and the ongoing momentum and delivery. So, I mean, if there's a fundamental change, then we'll look. But right now, I'm confident that we can be completely clear that this 80% of surplus is going to be through the cycle. This is an upgrade.

Super: If there's a fundamental change then then we'll look but right now I'm I'm confident that we can be completely clear that they say 80% of surplus is going to be through cycle. This is an upgrade on it and it's pretty much in line with the pro rata or upgrade over I have a full queue in the first two quarters of nice amazing from.

Speaker: And it's pretty much in line with the pro rata upgrade over 4Q and the first two quarters of next year, moving from 150 to 175, pretty much pro rata with that. So, it's about confidence in our balance sheet, confidence in our business performance, and the ability to tolerate movements around. Yeah, and then on simplification, I think what I'd say is there are lots of opportunities, you know, a new team we can reflect on and think about how we can work together more effectively. We can simplify our narrative, which you started seeing us do today.

1150 to 175 pretty much pro rata with that let's say, it's about confidence in our balance sheet confidence in our and our business performance and the ability to tolerate movements around.

Speaker Change: Yeah, and then on simplification I think what I'd say is there are lots of opportunities.

Speaker Change: New team, we can reflect on and think about how we can work together more effect that effectively we can simplify our narrative, which is started singles' day today.

Speaker: We can simplify overlap inside organizational structures that we've talked about today. We can simplify buyback guidance, which you've seen today. And there's a long list of these things that the leadership team and I are thinking about. And our challenge is, how do we just gradually do these things over time, driving efficiency into the business at the same time that we keep the superstructure strong and keep the drive and focus on the strategy strong? So that's really what I'd say.

Speaker Change: We can simplify overlap inside organizational structure. So we've talked about today, we can simplify buyback guidance, which you're seeing today and there's a long list of these things that the leadership team and I are thinking about it and our challenge.

Speaker Change: Our challenge is how do we just gradually do these things over time driving efficiency into the business at the same time that we keep the superstructure strong and keep the keep the drive and focus on the strategy strong. So that's that's that's really.

Speaker Change: Really what I'd say, but the.

Speaker: But efficiency drives us to do an awful lot more with digital now that we've got gen AI inside. And we'll do an awful lot more as we progress the digitization of the downstream business. We have offshore centers to build up now. That'll drive an awful lot of efficiency into the business as well. So we, I think, are enthusiastic, and we see a lot of opportunity in the space for simplicity, focus, and then a hard focus on returns. Thanks for your question, Matt. And the last question goes to Minnow. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for squeezing me in. I know it's been a long call. I'll just start with the question about the paleogenes.

Speaker Change: The efficiency drive.

Speaker Change: We'll be able to do an awful lot more digital now that we've got your NII inside.

Speaker Change: We will do an awful lot more as we progress the digitization of the downstream business, we have offshore centers to build up now that'll that'll drive an awful lot of efficiency into the business as well. So we I think we're enthusiastic and we're seeing a lot of opportunity in the space about simplicity focus and then a hard a hard focus on returns. Thanks for your question, Matt and the last question goes to.

Speaker Change: Menno.

Speaker Change: Yes.

Menno: Hey, good morning, everyone and thanks for squeezing me in I know, it's been a long call I'll just start with a question on the Paleo gene is a key driver of liquids growth and the like.

Speaker: Is the key driver of liquids growth in the GOM through 2030? Can you just give us an update on where things stand at Tiber and Kiskida? And what are the key risks in bringing in initial volumes in that 2028 timeframe? And then my second question, I believe, is for Kate, on divestments, which fell a bit short of 2023 guidance. Is there anything to read into there? Or is that largely a timing issue?

Menno: Gone through 2030 can you just give us an update on where things stand at the Tiber and cause skikda.

Menno: And what are the key risks and bringing on initial volumes in that 'twenty 'twenty eight timeframe and then.

Menno: Second question I believe it's for Kate just on divestments, which fell a bit short of 2023 guidance is there anything to read into there or is that largely a timing issue.

Speaker: And I guess the second part of that is how much of a priority is getting the next, call it 2 to 3 billion in asset sales across the line, given your confidence in the balance sheet? Thank you. Kate, why don't you start on divestments? Sure, thanks, Manoj.

Menno: And I guess the second part of that is how much of a priority is getting the next call it $2 billion to $3 billion of asset sales across the line given your confidence in the balance sheet. Thank you.

Menno: Kate why don't you start on divestments sure. Thanks, Mike.

Speaker: Yeah, a few things on divestments. Yes, we were slightly short of our guidance that we put out at the end of the third quarter. I think you wouldn't be surprised to hear me say that, as Maria has talked about a lot, we are hugely focused on value. And if I get the sense that a transaction isn't delivering value because I'm trying to hit a certain deadline to close it, I'm not gonna do that.

Kate: Yeah, a few things on that.

Kate: We were slightly short of our guidance that we put us at the end of the third quarter.

Kate: I think you wouldn't be surprised to hear me say that as Mary has has talked about a lot. We are hugely focused on value and if I get the sense of transaction isn't delivering value because I'm trying to hit a certain deadline to close that I'm not going to do that.

Speaker: So there's one or two that we have allowed to move into 2024. We're just going through the process again to make sure that we're getting maximum return for those assets. And that is what I'm going to be focused on delivering with regard to the divestment target. Broadly, at the moment, I would say we're on track for the 25 by 25. Let's see how it goes.

Kate: Say that the royalty that we have allowed to move into 2024, and we're just going through the process again to make sure that we're getting maximum return for those assets and that is what I'm going to be focused on delivering with regard to the divestment target.

Kate: Clearly at the moment I would say we're on track for the 25 by 'twenty five and let's see how it goes I'm confident in the two to three that we said, we're guiding for 2020 for them, but as I say.

Speaker: I'm confident in the two to three that we've said we're guiding for 2024. But, as I say, I'm much more driven by getting value for the transactions we're executing. I'm not going to be solely driven by hitting a number on a target if that doesn't make sense and we're not getting the returns that we need.

Kate: I'm much more driven by getting value for the transactions, we're executing I'm not going to be solely driven by hitting a number and a target if that doesn't make sense and we're not getting the returns that we named says that's that's how we're going to be looking at it and that's what we're gonna be fake stuff.

Speaker: So that's how we're going to be looking at it, and that's what we're going to be focused on. And what a nice way to end the conversation on a Paleogene question, nine billion barrels of oil in place, highly discovered resources across Cascada, Tiber, Gila, exploration opportunities with new acreage that we picked up as well. It's time for BP to open that basin up again after a 15-year hiatus.

Kate: And what a nice way to end off the conversation on the Paleogene question 9 billion barrels of oil in place.

Kate: Highly discovered resource across Cascade of Tiber, Gila exploration opportunities with new acreage that we picked up as well.

Kate: Time for BP to open that basin up again after after a 15 year hiatus. So we're really excited about it we have full teams on cast Gila and Tiber moving toward right now Cascade.

Speaker: So we're really excited about it. We have full teams on Cascada and Tiber moving forward right now. Cascada, we hope to hit FID this year. Let's see how it goes.

Kate: We hope to hit this year.

Kate: Let's see how it goes I think the principal challenge in timeline will be yard space.

Speaker: I think the principal challenge in the timeline will be yard space. We're just sounding out yards now as we go and when you can get slots inside the yards to build these things. The subsurface feels de-risked now. There are enough production analogs around Cascada from similar fields with similar characteristics that I don't feel there's really any risk from the subsurface perspective, probably just more upside than risk.

Kate: We're just sending out yards now as we go and when when you can get slots inside the yards to build these things.

Kate: The subsurface feels derisked now there's enough production.

Kate: Analogs around cascadia from similar fields with similar characteristics that I don't feel there's really any risk on the subsurface perspective, probably just more upside than risk.

Speaker: The development cost looks very competitive, and the economics look competitive, so it'll really be slot timing, and we'll update you on that as we go through the year. Tiber will be a follow-on from Cascadis. You'll be doing these in sequence, and we'll see where we go from Cascadis to Tiber. So I think my encouragement to the team is to do everything safely with cycle time. That's what creates the most value for the corporation, and it's safe cycle time.

Kate: The development cost looks very competitive economics look a competitive so it'll really be slot timing and we'll update you with that as we go through the year Tiber will be a follow on from Cascade us you'll be doing these in sequence and less must see we haven't we have let's see where we go from from Cascade Tiber. So I think my encouragement.

Kate: The team is to do everything safe.

Kate: With the cycle time, that's what creates the most value for the corporation, a safe cycle time and that's our that's.

And that's what Gordon, Ewan, and I are working on in Cascadis and Tiber. So thank you, everybody, for attending today in person and online. It's much appreciated. Just a few final words. Our destination is unchanged, IOC to IEC, but we're going to be simpler, more focused, more efficient, and really driving for value. Thanks very much, everyone, for taking the time today to visit with us. We look forward to seeing you in the future. Bye-bye.

That's what Gordon you and I are working on on Cascade and Tiber.

Speaker Change: So thank you everybody for attending today here in person and online that's much appreciated.

Speaker Change: Just a few final words, our destination is unchanged IOC to IAC.

Speaker Change: But we're gonna be simpler.

More focused more efficient and really driving for value. Thanks, very much everyone for taking the time to data to visit with us and look forward to seeing you in the future.

Speaker Change: [noise].