Q4 2023 Africa Oil Corp Earnings Call
Operator: Hello everyone, my name is Sandra, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Africa Oil Fourth Quarter 2023 Results Management presentation. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.
Hello, everyone. My name is Sandra and I will be your conference operator today.
At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the Africa oil fourth quarter 'twenty 'twenty suite, we soldier management presentation.
All lines have been place a mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question. During this time simply press star one on one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question. Please press star one on one again.
Operator: After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press stars one and one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Please note that at any time, participants on the webcast can submit questions using the Q&A box on the webcast interface. Please note that this event is being recorded, and the recording will be available for playback on the company's website. I would now like to pass the meeting on to Mr. Shahin Amini, Africa Oil's Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Amini.
No that does anytime participants on the webcast concept to meet the questions using the Q&A box on the West Coast interface. Please note that this event is being recorded the recording will be available for playback on the company's website I would now like to pass the meeting to Mr. Shahin Amini I forgot what it is.
Investor Relations. Please go ahead Mr <unk>.
Shahin Amini: On behalf of management, I thank you for joining us today for our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results presentation. We appreciate your interest and support. On the call today, we have President and CEO Dr. Roger Tucker and our CFO Mr. Pascal Nicodemus. Roger will start with an introduction and the highlights of the results before Pascal presents the quarter's results in more detail.
Thank you Sandra on behalf of management. Thank you for joining us today for fourth quarter and full year 2023 results presentation.
Your interest and support on.
On the call today, we have president and CEO, Dr. Richard <unk>, and our CFO Mr. Pascal in the Codell.
Roger will start with an introduction on the highlights of the results before Pascal presents the quarter's results in more detail.
Shahin Amini: Roger will then cover Africa Oil's 2024 outlook and outline our strategic priorities before we go into the Q&A session. But first, as always, I would like to remind you that remarks made during this session are subject to forward-looking statements, which involve significant risk factors and assumptions and have been fully described in the company's continuous disclosure report. The information discussed is made as of today's date and time, and Africa Oil assumes no obligation to update or revise this information to reflect new events or circumstances except as required by law. The company's complete financial statements and related MD&A are available on the company's website and on CDAR. Roger, we are ready for you; please go ahead. Thank you very much for joining us today.
Tom will then cover Africa oil 2020 for offload and applying our strategic priorities before we go into the Q&A session.
But first.
As always I would like to remind you that remarks made during this session are subject to forward looking statements, which involve significant risk factors and assumptions and have been fully described in the company's continuous disclosure reports.
The information discussed is bank as of today's date, some time off.
<unk> assumes no obligation to update or revise this information.
Flex new events or circumstances, except as required by law. The company is complete financial statements and related MD&A are available on the company's website and on SEDAR. Roger We're ready for you. Please go ahead.
Right.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Roger Tucker: Before we get into the minutes of the presentation, what I'd like to do is to affirm our strategic principles, and these are principles that have developed since we started to make presentations to the investment community back in. The first thing is, starting on the top right, that we want to remain focused on what are effectively world-class assets, both in the production domain, in the exploration domain, and in the development and appraisal. We are currently partnered uniquely with Tier 1 operators, notably Total and Chevron. We wish to maintain equity exposure in the assets that we have at affordable levels, not challenging our balance sheet.
Before we get into <unk>.
Great.
It's just weird.
Right.
Yeah.
Hum.
So the investment.
Yeah.
My name is.
The rest of the year.
Why.
One silver lining.
Well there are parts of the world class asset.
Production.
And the exploration.
Got it.
<unk>.
We are currently partner uniquely.
Alright.
Hum chaparral.
We wish to maintain.
Sure.
We have.
Not currently.
Our balance sheet.
Roger Tucker: And we wish to try to consolidate our ownership in the core assets, which we, as I say, consider to be world class. As I've been saying to you since September, we'll seek growth opportunities only within the existing core assets that we have, and, of course, we are targeting major rewards for shareholders. So those are our strategic principles which remain, in fact, today. In terms of how we have progressed along that line, the 2023 highlights that I think are most important to us are firstly the renewal of OML 130 for a further 20 years, which has, of course, freed up the possibility of making incremental investments in that area. In addition, we have received $175 million in dividends from our investment in prime.
And we wish.
Alright.
Cool.
Be well.
Well.
As I say safety since September we'll see.
First off for Q.
Okay.
Cool.
Yes.
And of course, we are targeting makes and rewards for sure.
There's a strategic vertical.
So the next slide.
In terms of how we have progressed along that line.
Uh huh.
Take care.
Cool.
Firstly, the renewal of our revenue.
Well.
Thank you.
Which has.
Freed up the possibility.
Yeah.
So in that area.
In addition, we had $375 million.
Some of our investments.
Roger Tucker: And we have, as you will see, met our midpoint predictions for 2023, both in production and, We have converted O&L 130 and O&L 127 to the new Nigerian tax terms. In addition, the thing that perhaps you're most interested in, we had in 2023 a very successful appraisal and testing program in Namibia, which supports our concept that this is going to be a significant development of a world-class discovery. Along the way, we have maintained a strong balance sheet. We have not over-stretch our liquidity in any way.
Alright.
And we have as you will see Matt.
Our midpoint.
Predictions for.
Our production and cash flow from operations we.
We have conducted.
The good news.
Jerry.
The headline tax rate.
So the purchase et cetera.
Perhaps the most interested in.
Sure.
Very successful appraisal and testing first.
And the Michigan, which supports our concept this is Gary.
Yes.
A world class discovery.
Along the way we are maintaining a strong balance sheet.
So first our liquidity and anyway, we have completed seven inhibitors and we commenced the share buyback program.
Roger Tucker: We have been returning dividends and have recommenced the shared buyback program, on a lonely vine for effect. Next slide, please. And then to continue, I'll just reaffirm what we have already achieved in 2024, which I think is a very strong indication that our strategic direction is progressing well. We have completed the farm out to, or farm down to, total impact in Namibia. And this is a transformational transaction that results in us being carried completely through all costs, both exploration and development, all the way through to the first hydrocarbons in that block. We have initiated the production start-up of Agco West as a tie-back to the FDSO, which should add up to 14,000 barrels of daily incremental production over the year.
And we sold it.
Our investments on our underlying core.
Next slide please.
And then to continue just weird.
What we have already achieved.
Okay.
Which I think is very strong indications that our strategic direction is progressing well.
We have completed the pharma.
So we'll come back to sort of chime in.
And this is a transformational.
The action.
Tariffs completely through all that.
Exploration.
All the way through to source hydrocarbon.
Cool.
We have initiated the production start up of that.
The rest of the pipeline.
Yes.
Which should add.
14000 barrels a day.
Roger Tucker: In addition, you will have seen that there was an announcement that we appear to have encountered additional hydrocarbons in a totally separate structure in Namibia, in the Mangeti 1X well, which has encountered hydrocarbons in at least three different zones, which further supports the decision that we may continue within Namibia. We continued investing in Block 3B-4B, which is a block that we've increased our equity position to 26.25%. It's a block which is of strategic importance in the Orange Basin.
Got it.
In addition, many of you've seen there.
Bigger than that.
Yes.
Additional hydrocarbon.
The structure.
In the media.
And my guess is well.
And Catherine hydrocarbons.
Sure.
Which further support.
The decision that we might see.
Yes.
And we've continued investing in block prepaid all day, which is a block that we increased our equity positions.
Two 5%.
Okay.
Importantly in the arguments are.
Pascal Nicodemus: And we're in very advanced discussions to farm down that block over the next coming months, which should allow us to proceed with activities in that area. And with that, what I will do is pass over now to Pascal to take you through the financial aspects of 2023. Thank you, Roger.
And we are very very strong deductions, so the farm down of backlog.
With that mix.
The coming months.
Should allow us to see.
Good activity in that area.
And with that I will.
Offer them now.
Thanks Keith.
Through the financial aspects.
Sure.
Thanks Robert.
Pascal Nicodemus: The first message from this annual result is the fact that we have successfully met our 2023 guidance. In terms of production, slightly above the midpoint in terms of titanium production, and also in terms of cash flow from operations, slightly below $300 million versus a guidance midpoint of $219 million. We can already see the impact of the industry campaign that we are carrying out on Aegina and ICO. And note that Q4 production was slightly down in relation to planned maintenance, so we expect this to recover in Q1 and Q2 2024. I think this is evidence that we are sitting on assets that are very predictable and have a very robust performance; guidance is really the evidence that the fields are behaving as predicted. Bye.
Chris.
I remember we go.
Yes.
Once approved this forgotten.
What I'm, saying.
Uh huh.
Meaningful.
Production and also.
Cash flow from operation.
That could be low.
Versus guidance.
Okay.
We can already see the impact.
Okay.
Okay.
Note that the Q4 production was slightly down.
Hi, Matt.
We expect this to recover.
She will answer to your excess is hopeful.
Okay.
Yes.
We also see on the world ex.
Michelle Berrey.
Very predictable brokers.
Thank you Sir.
Yeah.
Guidance.
Evidence of that.
Looking.
At credit Suisse.
Pascal Nicodemus: Next slide is the financial highlights for Africa Oil. We are posting $87 million in net income this year, which is a significant improvement compared to last year, but this year has been impacted by a few exceptional items, non-cash still, but exceptional items. The latest one in Q4 was an impairment at the prime level of $133 million. So without that impairment, we would have posted basically a $43 million result for the quarter. And this impairment is simply due to an increased discount rate at prime level due to the now lower tax rate that is applicable in Nigeria. This is a bit counterintuitive, but when you compute your weighted average cost of capital, If you decrease your tax rate, you basically lose the tax shield on the debt.
Right.
Next slide.
Financial highlights.
Yeah.
We are foreseeing this $87 million net.
Net income.
Sure.
The improvement compared to last year.
PCI has been impacted by achieving exceptional items noncash.
This latest one in Q4.
Prime example.
$132 million.
So we got that kind of agree with that question.
Total $3 million.
Quarter over quarter.
This compares with the <unk> and interest discount rate.
Hi, good level year to date.
The lower tax rate, that's about to kick off in Nigeria.
This is a big concern.
When compared to the weighted average cost of capital if you decrease your tax.
That's right.
<unk> okay.
Pascal Nicodemus: And therefore, the cost of debt is increasing. This is a bit of a mechanical effect that we saw in Q4. We actually saw the benefit of this decreased tax rate in the previous quarters, in Q2 and Q3. However, when we converted to the PIA, OML 1.13 and OML 1.27, we had, at that time, the opposite effect, where we basically posted about $200 million of credit due to the release of a deferred tax liability. So Q4 has been impacted negatively this time, but Q2 and Q3 have been impacted positively again because of this changing impact. Although I haven't said that the performance has been consistent over the years, we still have a little bit of impact from Kenya. We posted in Q2, the right amount of $15 million that you draw finally from Kenya. Otherwise, there has been no other exceptional item in this agreement.
And therefore, the aircraft subject is increasing.
Because I understand you correctly I guess, we saw in Q4.
We actually saw the benefit.
The pre tax credit to the previous quarter in Q2, our Q3.
When we converted to the PRA.
One question I want to say that we had at that time.
Yes.
<unk> got 200 million.
Due to seasonal factors.
So.
At this time.
Q2 actually.
Predictably.
Again, because of the changing tax rate.
Otherwise I wouldn't say that.
David.
Yes.
We still have a little bit of impact from Kenya.
Average basket.
Q2.
Iron ore.
Thank you our final exit from Kenya, otherwise.
There have been no other accent youre likely to see this year.
Next slide please.
Sure.
This slide really shows.
Managed for cash this year, we've received $175 million.
And our dividend.
With this option.
Nicky regaining momentum.
Yes.
If we could with the group's Kathryn.
Thank you Shannon.
Shareholder returns.
Is it down to about $3 million of Shanghai separately, we restarted our share buyback program will go back to that.
Pascal Nicodemus: Next slide, please. This slide really shows how we have managed our cash this year. We've received $175 million in prime dividends, and what this graph shows is basically that we have lived within our means, and we have only spent what we could spend.
Last year, we spent also.
So this is an exploration.
That's helpful.
We stood our corner in APAC.
Just to make sure people are pretty stable.
Pascal Nicodemus: We spent $29 million on shareholder returns, both with dividends of about $23 million and a share buyback on top of it. We restarted the share buyback program and came back on that end of last year. We also spent $29 million on investment activities, in exploration in Niger and South Africa for $15 million.
Yes.
It's tied to.
The table on the exploration campaign.
And so we don't have strong wireless patents, we ended up at a J.
Sure.
We may be in the past I would say.
The integration of <unk>.
I will start with the cleaning out of their own pocket.
The other category and in fact authorities. We've also spent.
Thanks, a lot.
Pascal Nicodemus: We stood our corner in impact to make sure that we would keep our equities stable and increase during this exciting appraisal and exploration campaign in Namibia. So we've done that for $44 million. We spent $20 million on GMAs. And we had a few remaining costs, I would say, in relation to our exit from Kenya. We spent $16 million on tax settlement with the Kenyan Tax Authority.
Historically, our dispute with Apple as a partner.
And average out.
So all in all.
And it means that our cash.
Actually increased.
Yes.
Yes.
EBITDA in any way.
Our strong balance sheet.
Right.
Top accounts were up for auction.
Next slide please.
So just a snapshot.
Pricing that we've achieved.
This year or last year.
Uh huh.
Prime networks so.
As you know we showed the effects of the U.
Our marketing strategy.
Pascal Nicodemus: We've also spent $10 million on setting some historical cost disputes with our partners in Kenya, which are only $1. So all in, it means that our cash balance has actually increased by a share cap of $2 million. We really began, in a way, to maintain that strong balance sheet while continuing to return part of the cash we have for oil. Next slide, please.
Yes.
Thank you.
Which continues to.
Yes.
Got it.
Yes.
Our portfolio is exposed to potential regulatory approval, which is not the case in Omaha, we absolutely correctly.
And the reason is that.
Thanks for that.
Thank you operator.
Hello, Scott.
We saw it actually all of our public support in Q4.
Pascal Nicodemus: So just a snapshot of the prices we've achieved this year and last year. As you know, we put in place a new oil marketing strategy in mid-2022, which continues to achieve excellent sales prices compared to average brands. You might remember a few years ago, when we were scaling our targets forward, we were always exposed to a potential increase in the oil price, which is not the case anymore. Now, we are following two basic brands. And the reason is that, thanks to that basic marketing strategy, we are selling most of our cargo. We sold all our carbon spots in Q4. We sold most of the carbon spots in 2023, and we achieved an average sales price of about $84 per barrel compared to 83 average daily breads last year.
We sold most of the capital structure.
These assets registry.
To achieve that.
Profits.
Okay.
I'll start off with our.
This is Phil.
Sure.
Last year at the same time.
We're trying to protect our downside.
So essentially as we talked.
Production at the strike price is about <unk>.
That is correct.
So as we've made this year.
Steve.
The potential downsizing the archive.
And at the same time.
David.
Perhaps market.
Next slide is a snapshot.
<unk> financials secured.
Payroll days.
Okay.
Exactly.
So from operation.
Almost gravity handler, Oxford cooperation.
The last CFO proximate to our hotel.
Almost $500 million.
Thank you Jack.
Why.
A very strong balance sheet.
Yes.
$750 million.
Right.
Please proceed with your cash.
Cash so a very very stable.
Pascal Nicodemus: At the same time, we are still trying to protect our downtime. For instance, we bought 1 million barrels of production at a strike price of about $80 per barrel. That is going to protect us from March to May this year. But we are still very conscious of potential downsides in the oil price. But at the same time, we are still trying to protect our downtime. The next slide is a snapshot of Prime's financials, which shows our payroll, the performance, and what the performance has been in terms of exit tax and cash flow from operations. Like I said, almost $300 million in cash flow from operations. Last year for Prime and its last retail, almost $500 million in exit tax.
Is that.
With conservative way of managing the.
The chain.
Just coming back on the offshore where we tend to Ohio.
We're sticking to that.
Got it.
Ccs Institute.
Before that decided to continue with it.
In EBITDA. So we are.
So we are strategically distributed $2 five a share.
In March again.
That's semi annual dividend.
And as you all know we have restarted our Shanghai factory.
So I mean, there have been a few questions regarding why we subdivide our top tier.
Obviously last year was sort of transition here.
We have to focus on expanding our Florida or any impact on the Jimmy Choo continue.
Continuing the trend.
Unfortunately.
Yes.
For us.
<unk> overall cash.
Now thats kind of linearity inventory relief with Avenova in APAC.
Mitchell predictive orchestration.
We've restarted our share buyback and focus on managing the share buyback going forward.
Pascal Nicodemus: While maintaining a very strong balance sheet, the RBL is at $750 million at the moment, trying to still stand along with $50 million in cash. So, a very, very stable business and a conservative way of managing oil production in Nigeria. Next slide. Just to come back on our shareholder return program. Since we put in place that program, we've returned about $400 million since 2022. The board has decided to continue the existing dividends, so we are going to distribute 2.5 cents a share in March again; that's a new annual dividend.
Got it.
Gotcha.
Thank you very much.
Thanks Scott.
Yes.
Thank you.
Just quickly.
Once again reaffirmed that the assets.
This is the.
And then Mark Guerin Mako total knee.
On the West Coast.
Okay.
Yes.
As our <unk>.
Right.
All of them.
Intellectual.
Lina for Rex.
The rest of the portfolio.
And I've always said that.
Ron.
This asset.
To create significant.
Significant value the next.
Thanks for the time.
The first one of course the production very sharply.
In Europe, we know very well.
And the thing.
Sorry to see it.
<unk> got some of those shifts.
Asset.
You bet.
They are currently.
Okay.
In firearms.
Roger Tucker: And as you all know, we restarted our share buyback back in December 2023. So there have been a few questions regarding why we stopped the buyback last year. Obviously, last year was a sort of transition year when we had to focus on understanding our owner and impact on making sure we could continue to fund our appraisal and exploration campaign in Namibia. So it's key for us to have a conservative management of our cash balance. Now that we have signed the Farm Act agreement, we are beginning to see an impact. We are in a much more predictable situation, and you know we've restarted our share buyback, and we're going to focus on managing the share buyback going forward. Thank you very much Pascal. What I think we ought to do is just quickly go through it once again and reaffirm the assets that we consider to be caught. And those are Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Namibia, and the West Coast of Nigeria.
Level.
They are mature.
Is that better.
Production levels.
Very very reliable stable and predictable.
Pointed out.
No.
We now have behind us.
No one extension.
Because the big pension anyway.
Laura.
Instead of that bringing on.
Stuart.
Hi, guys.
First of all a priori.
Hopefully.
At the end.
2024, so again world class assets very favorable very secure.
Our foundation.
On that subject.
Thanks, a lot.
Thanks.
Performance.
With an average lease assets.
The form and we have published.
Which you will see.
We are all very.
With water.
At this point.
Yes.
When the assets are relatively mature.
We added.
Sure.
Okay.
Okay.
So that means that we actually next to us.
Seven 2 million barrels.
Welcome Nathan.
803.
Three 6 million.
As a result.
In terms of.
What we mean.
Completed.
Two points.
Medical fiber.
Roger Tucker: These are, as I have been saying since September, the places that we are going to focus on. All of our money and intellectual capital will come to clean up the rest of the portfolio. And I've always said that there's enough running that exists in these assets to create a significant impact.
Almost all of our lives.
Which is.
<unk>.
Turning next to us.
One two.
Billion barrels.
The guidance is.
Sure.
As shown.
And we are very confident that we will come in on that production.
Oilcloth assets.
And we're able to do.
Thanks.
Thats replacement.
Roger Tucker: The first one, of course, is a production-based asset that you obviously know very well. And the thing that we demand, obviously, is that we're saying to you, it is often forgotten the sheer scale of these assets that we're invested in, which are currently doing over 300,000 barrels a day at the gross level. Hence, they are mature, and they're very, very reliable, stable, and predictable, as has been pointed out. We now, via the O&O 130 extension, have the ability, because of the extension in the contract line, consider now bringing on, and how they're indeed doing, tie-backs to it, and the first one will be Cray-A-Way, which hopefully is going to be FIB by the end of Thanks a lot.
The next slide.
And then also dropped down.
But we consider it.
Awesome.
What I can say.
At Tenda.
Okay.
Yes, the mix will be.
And where do you prefer to profit.
A single discovery.
And you can see up in the north.
Our block the highlights.
In the Mississippian.
Previous quarter, but across all of the work.
Yes.
The evolution of the developments.
This new program.
The shell of the scope of the graphically we're expecting.
February 2020.
We've been tracking.
Scott.
Okay.
Sorry.
EMEA and APAC.
Discovery.
Got it.
In January 2024.
Then with medical <unk> getting in.
2017.
Sure.
Waste disposal.
Development.
Okay.
Is it a secret sauce.
Okay.
For certain properties.
It's having the mood amongst a little bit more pizza you will see is an extension of the base.
Thank you Barry.
All of all three of the four.
We see it is to have very significant cost.
It's on trend.
These discoveries are being made at the margin.
And we are.
Before actively in discussions with several.
In respect to night.
So that is another area.
Now to the next slide we kind of look at.
Roger Tucker: So how did we perform in terms of reserves and how did these assets... We have published our reserve report, which you will see, and we are very happy with what has happened. But please point out, you know, it's the third point, that we have deemed our assets as relatively insured. We have a reserve replacement version that is over 50% in the new numbers. So that means that we actually have, next to us... at least 7.2 million barrels of oil from the oil refineries. But we have replaced over 3.6 million barrels of food at the reserve. In terms of our 2P working interest reverse, you can see that we are at 52.2 million barrels now, and then, of course, the failing number is the number on the file right, which is our 230-200-10, next to us. 1.2 billion barrels.
Our acreage.
And then maybe on.
The global.
Thank you Andrea.
Hello.
And you can see the $1 billion.
<unk>.
We are now bringing three successful wells on the payments.
Sure.
Rick.
Hey.
Marcelo.
Operator.
We operate.
Sure.
Got it.
Our payments.
No.
And we've always said.
Right.
We got a really sloppy.
Very significant follow on exploration.
Cross sell activity geographically.
Which is already to date.
By putting patients at.
Going back to you on that.
Finally, we made progress in the southern part of the block.
Bye.
We've done the way.
And we should get access to that study.
Okay.
Roger Tucker: The guidance is shown below, and we are very confident that we will come in on that production guidance, and we're still able to do a 50% reverse replacement version. The next slide, please. And then what we drop down to is what we consider to be an incredibly exciting basement that we're in. What I've been saying since September to everyone is that we are here in the midst of, or we're going to be, an emerging new petroleum profit. It's not just... Thank you, and you can see up in the north our blocks are highlighted in the middle, and down in the south, 3B and 4B. But across on the right, you can see the evolution of the development of this new product. So Shell discovered the graph field back in February 2022. Venus then came and was discovered on February 22 as well.
Typically.
Wolfgang.
Sure.
Fantastic.
Yes.
Tom.
No.
On our balance sheet.
Good.
Wealth assets until production.
That evidence.
On the next slide please.
Based on.
This is a very different.
And we call it.
Infrastructure led exploration.
Yeah.
The principal assets.
Why is the brands.
Facility.
Significant as others.
At this time.
April.
<unk> is one which has got significant cross sell activity.
Previously only everything already.
And so we.
August.
Gas prospects.
In order to immediately tied back to the LNG facility.
Significant significant other.
Biomass discussions and backlog are on going.
We have an objective of achieving continued deal by the end of 2024.
As early as possible.
Next slide please.
Roger Tucker: A new, very interesting discovery by... not only in January 2024, but then we now have Langefi in February. And so this is the way these provinces develop. This appears to be a supercharged petroleum tanker. Then down in the south, and we'll come onto that in a little bit more detail, you'll see an extension of the basin, still in the same bay, powerblock3b-4b is on trend with the discoveries that are being made at the moment in Namibia. And we are, as I said before, actively in discussions with federal parties in respect to making a farm in that area. So if we go up now to the next slide and have a look at... in Namibia, the blob is getting bigger and bigger, so you've got to collect and cover them, and you can see the Venus field. There are now three successful welds on the Venus structure.
Yeah.
So it's turned back then.
Turning to slide 13.
To achieve 10% before.
We're going to consolidate and streamline and financially.
Okay.
A series of routes, we want to maintain our financial flexibility in order to accelerate growth.
Correct.
One of the main shareholder capital.
And we want to maintain the balance sheet.
To keep maximum flexibility.
What we achieved in the pharma and food.
<unk>.
Yes.
We have implemented additional investment that's not gone further decrease in orbit.
We have launched a share buyback program again.
Initiatives.
Okay.
Just a moment.
Exactly.
<unk> announced.
In a new class.
We'll maintain that discipline.
Policy and we will achieve that.
And 54 basis.
<unk>.
PG tips as well.
And we will see if we can further consolidation of our core assets and those of our strategic priorities.
Roger Tucker: This is being risked as a world class light oil company. The operator has high confidence in the development of the misfire statements that they have made. And we've always said that there is very significant, the reason we want to study this a lot, is that there is very significant follow-on exploration prospectivity around being..., which has already been developed by the first indications of success at Mangetti 1X. 3D seismic is the southern part of the block; it's not covered at the moment by 3D seismic. It's underway in the southern part of the block, and we should get access to that data, which will allow us to delineate further prospects. Now the fantastic thing about the deal that we have done with Tarl and the pharma is that, with no further calls on our balance sheet. A good answer?
Every price.
Clearly defined.
Full year of core assets.
Which is a key piece in power.
Plus.
Thank you very much.
Our presentation before I go back to the operator, Sandra and she can remind everyone on the instructions to submit questions I would like to set some boundaries. So I do apologize, but this is going to happen.
Management will not comment on the ongoing farmed down processes for blocks III beef will be on EG search you've long on each other than what's already been said are true.
You can appreciate these are commercially sensitive matters and it would be inappropriate to comment at this time.
We'll update you on this in due course, when there is a material update to be sure.
Roger Tucker: It's a well-deserved answer until the first production is established, whenever that is. The next slide is just a little update on EG. This is a very different situation, and we call this infrastructure-led exploration in Equatorial Guinea because the principal asset is located right around an energy facility which has got significant power, and we find here the acreage of EG31, which has got significant prospectivity. It's previously only ever been explored really for oil.
We're also notes media reports regarding third party legal and commercial disagreements related to blocks <unk> says Q1.
The company will not comment on such third party metrics. So with those points now I would like to see go back to Sandro, who will remind everyone on the Q&A process. Sandra. Please go ahead.
Thank you.
As a reminder to ask a question please press <unk>.
Roger Tucker: And so we are trying to target gas prospectivity in that block in order to immediately tie back to the LNG facility, which has got significant, significant finance discussions in that block ongoing, and we have an objective of achieving it and completing the deal by the end of this year, but as early as possible. Next slide, please. So let's go back then to what we're going to try to achieve in 2024, and we've made a good start. We're going to consolidate, streamline, and financially de-risk the portfolio. That can take the form of a series of groups.
One one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.
To withdraw your question Please press star one.
Thanks, Jim Barber will compile the Q&A roster.
Yes.
We will now take the first question.
From the line of Alex Smith from Investec. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, guys. Thanks for the call a couple of quick questions for me.
First just a step up in Capex of Prime and is this driven primarily from the under spend in 'twenty free or is it more activity from infill drilling and maybe just big picture kind of steady state capital investment looks like.
Roger Tucker: We want to maintain our financial flexibility in order to accelerate growth. We want to maintain our shareholding capital return. And we want to maintain the balance sheet. He'd like to add
Roger Tucker: In terms of what we've achieved, we've got the farmhouse in Fort Perry in Namibia. We have acquired additional interest, and that's now gone through to increased forfeits. We have launched a share buyback program again, and we will see that we initiate that program again as quickly as possible and directly after the day that we announced the total transaction in impact. We will maintain the base dividend policy, and we will achieve farm ups or farm downs, improving 4B and EG31. We will pursue, if we can, further consolidation of our core assets. Those are our strategic priorities in a very tight and clearly defined portfolio of core assets which, as I keep repeating, are the world's oil class. Thank you very much, and that's the end of our presentation. Before I go back to the operator, Sandra, and she can remind everyone of the instructions for submitting questions, I would like to set some boundaries. So I do apologize, but this is going to happen.
And then second of all just given the balance sheet strengthened the goal to kind of increase shareholder returns.
The buyback program is there a preference for more dividends or more buybacks in the medium term if you could kind of get some cartoon that as well. Please thank you.
So let.
Thanks, Scott for the Capex.
Officially.
Actual capex guidance in terms of concentrate.
Perfectly correct.
Net income.
Yes.
And so we get an expanded program in terms of yes, thats, a great and we expect to catch up.
Thank you Francisco.
Yes.
Okay.
It's a bit lower.
In 2023.
In Canada.
<unk> got aggressive guide that.
We decided to.
I think again some of it some years ago, which share where you're welcome keeping pace to show.
Permits mentioned the long term.
Shareholder.
And the share buyback is really.
Roger Tucker: Management will not comment on the ongoing farm dam processes for Blocks 3B, 4B, and EG31 and EG18 other than what's already been said. I trust you can appreciate these are commercially sensitive matters and it would be inappropriate to comment at this time. We will update you on this in due course when there is a material update to be shared. We also note media reports regarding third-party legal and commercial disagreements related to Block AG31.
Yes.
Two zero.
Are all down.
The conditions.
Ideal obviously at this stage.
What really needs to be a very depressed share price there is an incentive for us.
Chris the Shanghai back on ethane and.
Discretionary the airports to give so.
Please bear with us.
Yes, understood very clear thank you.
Okay.
Yes.
Thank you.
Okay.
We will now take the next question please.
One moment please.
Roger Tucker: The company will not comment on such third-party matters. So with those points, now I would like to go back to Sandra, who will remind everyone of the Q&A process. Sandra, please go ahead.
From the line of Mark Cooper.
Please go ahead.
Thanks, and thank you very much for the presentation.
I don't actually able to give any color on the scheduling options being considered for the rig.
Operator: Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 and 1 again.
Currently operating Lumpiness.
Yes.
Yes.
We can recover.
A huge amount of emotional electrical goods obviously.
Sure.
However, I think it's interesting some shows.
Alex Smith: Please stand by; we will compile the Q&A roster. We will now take the first questions. From the line of Alex Smith from Investec, please go ahead. Good afternoon, guys. A couple of quick questions from me.
The fact that.
The profile of acquired 75%.
Consequently slower.
Vantage.
It is now.
<unk>.
Contract.
Thanks Bill.
Which will give you an indication.
Pascal Nicodemus: I think first, just a step up in CapEx at Prime. Is this driven primarily from the underspend in 2023, or is it more activity from infill drilling and maybe just a picture of kind of what steady state capital investment looks like? And then second of all, just given the balance sheet strength and the goal to kind of increase shareholder returns by starting the buyback program, is there a preference for more dividends or more buybacks in the medium term? It'd be good to kind of get some clarity on that as well, please. Thank you.
Really good progress.
Just to size it for.
The Orange the Orange basin.
We anticipate.
But there will be.
Both rigs active.
On the limit.
Sure.
For the foreseeable future, but then one megawatt.
Okay.
Yes.
But that's basically all alone.
A lot of insight.
It's an interesting development.
Operator.
Which sort of points to the sale of <unk>.
The philosophy is that helpful.
Yes.
<unk> delivered to them.
That's helpful. Thank you.
I also wanted to ask on the 132 million private patman.
Pascal Nicodemus: Hmm. So let me start with the CapEx, especially the actual CapEx from Qatar-Gaddaf in 2023. I mean, you're perfectly correct; I think the drilling campaign started late, and so we didn't spend the full budget in 2023. We expect to cash out in 2024 on this infill campaign. So this explains the relatively lower CapEx spent in 2020. In terms of dividend versus buyback, we decided to introduce a dividend some years ago, which we want to keep in place to show a commitment in the long term to show returns.
You mentioned that was partially due to change in a technical assumptions.
Wednesday.
What's giving you more details on that.
Alright.
Throughout Canada.
You mentioned.
We also see positive changes.
This contract.
Yes.
Fortunately at a private solution for that as well.
<unk>.
Okay.
Sure.
Reschedule paying up for the churn profile, which actually is lower.
TB.
Okay. Thanks.
Okay.
Okay.
Some minor effect, primarily works as opposed to subsurface.
Good day.
Yes.
With this backdrop and the change in the contract which.
Pascal Nicodemus: And the share buyback is really the adjustment that we want to dial up or down. Ideally, obviously, at this stage, it's what we believe to be a very depressed share price. There is an incentive for us to increase the share buyback, and we've been in discussion with our board to do so. So, please bear with us. Yep, I understand. Very clear. Thank you. Thank you. We will now take the next questions. One moment, please. From the line of Matt Cooper from Peel Hunt, please go ahead.
So thats one factor time do what it needs to be.
Around 10%.
Okay got you that's helpful.
And then I just wanted to ask on the five new wells Joe.
So far I, just wanted to other well rates.
I don't know the time taken to drill those wells.
It's kind of tracking pre drill expectations.
Okay.
We are satisfied with the mix.
Yes.
Okay fair enough I'll throw another one and that was a quick answer im sorry.
Matt Cooper: Thanks and thank you very much for the presentation. I, I don't know if you're able to give any color on the scheduling options being considered for the rigs currently operating on Venus. Subs by www.zeoranger.co.uk. We can't give you a huge amount of information on that because it's obviously in the off-road system now.
Could give us maybe an update on your M&A strategy.
And how attractive you see the M&A environment in West Africa at the moment.
Yes.
We can give you any specifics.
On that.
So we've got some 23.
Q3 results.
We are constantly reviewing.
Achievements.
In and around.
Roger Tucker: However, I think that it is interesting, I'm sure you've seen that, the fact that Total has acquired 75% of the Tungsten Explorer from Vantage Drilling, which is now a 10-year contract. It's a very clever deal, which will give you an indication of the scale of the drilling program. We anticipate that there will be both reflected in the new media as well for the foreseeable future, but then one of them might go off. That's basically all I can say and just point you to an interesting development from our wonderful operator which sort of points to the scale of activity in the block. Does that help in any way?
So as I said, the fifth third is expected to meet their needs to.
Paul.
And anywhere else where.
We really focus on the countries and around the assets that we have.
Okay.
I'm looking for production assets are a reasonable scale.
Yes.
Okay, that's great thanks very much.
Okay.
Thank you.
Okay.
There are no further questions from the audio at this time, please continue with the web questions.
Yes, well, we've got plenty of questions from the webcast.
Before I go to those.
I apologize because we have received a few comments that the quality of audio isn't good enough.
Roger Tucker: Yeah, no, no, I understand you're limited on what you can say, but that's helpful. Thank you. I also wanted to ask about the 132 million prime impairment you mentioned that was partially due to a change in technical assumptions at OML 130. I don't know if you're able to give any more details.
I do apologize we did test the system, but clearly the gremlins have got underway today. So I apologize for that we do our best to improve the quality as we make progress hopefully.
Sorry.
Going to the webcast Roger Pascal.
Pascal Nicodemus: There are two other changes on top of that. The main change, as I said, the one that has the largest impact, is the change in discount rates. And price assumptions. Yes, and they have also changed price assumptions. That's one. And the change in technical assumptions is mainly the rescheduling of production profiles, which actually has lowered the NPD, but nothing, no change in results. OK, so it's a minor effect, and it's primarily the work scope as opposed to subsurface oil.
Large number of questions about shareholder capital returns most of those are about buybacks. So I'm not going to go through each one because some are repeat a repetition.
But really just the inquiries as what is the policy on the share buybacks.
Why did we reduce the share buybacks through the months of February.
And by 75%.
And could be potentially considered doing a substantial issuer bid on top of the normal course issuer bid.
If I may I'm going to put this to Pascal first and then Roger you can chime in.
Pascal Nicodemus: Yes, but the largest impact is back from the change in the contract, which is now 5.5% of what it used to be at around 10%. I just wanted to ask about the five new wells drilled in OMO at 130 so far. I just wondered if other well rates, and also the time taken to drill those wells, are those kind of tracking pre-drill expectations? that we aren't satisfied with them yet. Okay, fair enough. I'll throw another one in there with a quick answer then, so if you could give maybe an update on your M&A strategy and how attractive you see the M&A environment in West Africa. For more UN videos, visit www.un.org. I don't think we can give you any specifics on that, as we are talking about 2023 results, but we are constantly reviewing, in and around our assets. But as I said at the start, don't expect us to leap into a bomb or... We are only focused on the countries and on the assets that we already own. I'm looking for production assets there at a reasonable scale.
Yes.
We need to keep in mind that the share buyback is always subject to.
Sure.
The default Abbott with competitive.
Additionally, our cash position.
I mean last year, we have been.
Blacked out for very long period.
At a time.
Yep.
Again <unk> been in blackout, because we were drilling on mortgages.
Is there any blackout periods, we are unable to change the inspections. We are hitting 12 August so we need to be extremely conservative when we start when we have.
That's up to you we trust the case.
Great.
Why we decided to show about a little bit.
No.
Because of the magnitude we are going to be applicable tax law.
Due to the cash flow statement released and congestion. Therefore, we are going to be able to change our assumption.
Our focus again.
Please go ahead.
Roger.
Okay.
One of the general.
Alright.
We're here.
I apologize.
The interesting thing about that.
Correct.
And that's our policy.
Roger Tucker: Yeah. Okay, that's great. Thank you very much.
We think it is prudent to be conservative.
Operator: Thank you. There are no further questions on the audio at this time; please continue with the web questions. Yes, well, we've got plenty of questions from the webcast. But before I go to those, I'd like to apologize because we have received a few comments that the quality of the audio isn't good enough. I do apologize. We did test the system, but clearly, the gremlins have got in the way today.
Buybacks as we go into.
Okay.
The problem with that.
The company itself.
One comment.
Great.
Everyone.
A solid.
Once you Randy blackout.
Modified.
With your buyback.
On the call.
We will continue to achieve.
Since you guys.
So.
So on the positive side, you've got a company that was actually produced.
Shahin Amini: So I apologise for that; we do our best to improve the quality as we make progress; hopefully, it has got better. So, going to the webcast, Roger Pascal, there are a large number of questions about shareholder capital returns, most of those are about buybacks. So I'm not going to go through each one because some are repetitive.
And then it's up to the man.
On the negative side.
Reduce maintain prudence as we go into these.
This block estimate.
The fact that we are participating in some of the potential transactions.
And through a settlement.
Add anything to that.
I just want to mention that we knew about the Shanghai market.
So Gary this is.
Not just to continue the share buyback.
Shahin Amini: But really, the gist of the inquiry is: What is the policy on the share buyback? Why did we reduce the share buybacks during the month of February?
Maybe to increase it indefinitely.
Okay.
So I think that's actually a good opening for the next question Roger something about you said, often we need to tackle this.
Pascal Nicodemus: by 75% And could we potentially consider doing a substantial issue a bit on top of the normal course issue a bit? So, if I may, I'm going to put this to Pascal first, and then Roger, you can chime in. Yeah, so, I mean, you need to keep in mind that Michelle Bivak is always subject to the company's decisions in the optimization of our cash flow. I mean, last year we were in blackouts for a very long period of time due to the drilling campaign in Namibia.
There was a question about G&A costs.
And the fact that they've gone up.
The question is well can you justify this could you achieve the same with fewer people.
Okay.
The DNA.
Has it gone up.
And the reason it's gone up.
On the other side.
Pretty close.
Paul.
Thats correct.
Sure.
That's gone down.
And back in March.
And the board.
Approved.
We are now pursuing.
Pascal Nicodemus: Again, recently we have been in blackout because we were drilling in the Maldives. So you need to know that during this blackout period, we are unable to change anything. So we need to be extremely conservative when we start, when we are setting up a blackout period, which was the case in February when we decided to slow down a little bit. Now we are out of blackouts because of magnetic.
And that requires us to beef up.
Let's see.
A couple of.
Extra people come on board mainly.
Our liquidity and our chief commercial officer.
And Joanna K.
Our general General Counsel.
Got it.
Both generated by effort.
So hopefully.
Likewise.
Roger Tucker: We are going to be out of blackouts more due to the financial statement release and publication. Therefore, we will be able to change our instruction throughout the focus again. So please bear with us for now. Roger? I think what I would say is a general question. We hear everyone on the shared viaduct.
Management's ability to combat.
Crucially for EDG and timely manner.
<unk> of the strategy.
Yeah.
So we use that.
Asphalt mix.
Okay.
Alright.
CX for executing.
Could be good.
With less people.
You could if you didn't want to try to grow that.
Okay.
Got it.
Two two.
The transactions.
Roger Tucker: But the interesting thing about this company is that it is very active, and as Pascal said, we think it is prudent to be conservative with the shared buyback as we go into blackout. The problem with that is that, as the company is so active, we spend an awful lot of time in blackout. And I know that that frustrates everyone.
Thank you Roger.
Yes.
One for Pascal hopefully easy one.
There's a question on our short term deposit yields could you just give a ballpark figure for what we're getting for those yes.
At the moment.
Hum.
Turning to me that all cash.
Before meeting the purposes with any flu vaccine.
Saving accounts, we also have about <unk>.
Roger Tucker: But as Pascal said, once you're in a blackout, you cannot modify it, and I'm afraid that we will continue to see reductions as we go into blackouts. So, on the positive side, you've got a company that is actively doing stuff and has stuff to announce. On the negative side, we do have to reduce to maintain prudence as we go into these blackouts. It's a function of the fact that we are participating in so many potential transactions and drilling. Oscar, do you want to add anything to that?
A long time.
Definitely.
One also capable. Moreover, so one of your peers.
So.
Our conservative way of managing the Treasury management.
Management together with the team.
Five to five 4% at the moment, which I think Keith.
Quite competitive.
Taking a relatively small risk.
So.
First one for me sorry, that's where all of this.
Pascal Nicodemus: Well, I just want to mention that we knew about the launch. So there is definitely a logic to continue the share buyback and maybe increase it in the near future. I think that's actually a good opening for the next question, Roger. Something that you said, I think we need to tackle this. There was a question about the G&A cost and the fact that it's gone up, and the question is, well, can you justify this? Could you achieve the same with fewer people? The DNA has gone up, and the reason it's gone up is actually on the other side of the coin.
So we remain stable, we don't want to invest into their products.
Cannot say agreement nature long investment timeline.
Thank you Pascal one on production.
The observation is that the 2020 guidance is down.
And there is increasing gas production.
I'll be concerned about the production is about to collapse.
Well I'm not.
No question to me so Roger what do you think we're not concerned.
The production.
It's Ben.
It is going to kill us.
<unk>.
I mean.
Yeah.
There are two.
Reserve reports that have been written by external.
Roger Tucker: And back in last September, the board..., the strategy that we are now pursuing, and that required us to beef up the... And so we have had a couple of people on board, namely Oliver Quinn, who is our Chief Commercial Officer, and Joanna Kay, who is our general counsel, which was generated by Africa Oil totally internally; management of the farm down process through the 4B and EG is now entirely managed. Issue of the strategy is being done. An advert mix of, Could we do it with less people?
Consultants.
All of this.
Support.
Production profiles that we serve.
Put together so as I said right at the one attraction I think.
Both of these assets.
They will not hold.
Because they are so large.
<unk>.
Okay.
Alright, guys.
What I would add to that we've actually got a good track record with our guidance, we keep hitting the mid point so the predictability of these assets.
And let's face it in the last four years, we've got so much money out so based on the reserves and we saw material reserves that have been absolutely fantastic assets.
I'm going to go to a number of questions from one of our long spending tied with private investors in Sweden Macquarie.
Pascal Nicodemus: You could if you didn't want to try to grow the company, hence the transactions that we're doing at the moment. Thank you, Roger. One for Pascal. I hope it's going to be an easy one.
So there is one.
Buybacks and auction, we've tackled that Nicole I hope.
Would you accept the answer we've given you to us.
Theres one on communication strategy, obviously, there is a degree of frustration.
Pascal Nicodemus: There's a question about our short-term deposit yields. Could you just give a ballpark figure for what we're getting for those? Yeah, so at the moment, we sit on roughly 200 million dollars. We have 64 million deposited with cannabis. We also have about $120 million in time deficit over one month or three months or whatever. So, only within the 10-year time period. So, quite a conservative way of managing the treasury, but we are still managing to get the team. 5.2% and 5.4% at the moment, which I think is quite competitive by taking a relatively small risk in managing the treasury.
Has it been disclosed so far on our high impact catalyst offshore Namibia.
And the question is well when can we expect to hear more.
When are you in a position to put.
Those critical technical data.
Yes.
I'll take that one.
We are as I said at the start.
Associated with <unk>.
Long answer.
Operators in total.
Operator.
But for us in Nigeria, and Libya Chevron.
Unlocked.
However, we are.
Under the terms of our agreement.
In <unk>.
Shane.
More information.
The operator is actually currently.
Currently issuing public public markets, obviously, we have access to the ROE, but we certainly have our.
Shahin Amini: Of course, one parameter is that we want this cash balance to remain available. We don't want to invest in exotic products or commit to a long investment timeline. Thank you, Pascal.
We make our decisions on the basis of it.
Lisa.
Currently we are restricted in exactly what we.
Based on market.
So unfortunately, we must follow what the operator.
So.
Roger Tucker: While I'm trying production, the observation is that the 2024 guidance is down, and there's increasing gas production. I'd be concerned that production is about to collapse. Well, I'm not, but it's not a question to me.
Yes.
Drilling goes on.
Okay.
So we start to see that.
Gonna be attached on taxi and all the rest of it that will ultimately be time.
Significant announcements on.
Just what the potential of these.
These assets are when not if and when we can start putting pressure on that.
Roger Tucker: So, Roger, what do you think? No, we're not concerned. I'm in New York.
Obviously, we're working on.
<unk>.
At the moment.
We are determined to be good.
Roger Tucker: There are two reserve reports that have been written by external consultants, all of whom support the production profiles that we've put together. So, as I said right at the start, the one attraction, I think, of Africa Oil and these assets is that they will not fall over because they are so large. Very good, and I suppose I would add to that: we've actually got a good track record with our guidance. We keep hitting the midpoint, so I think that goes to the predictability of these assets.
With <unk>.
We don't want any.
Any.
And at least if you if there is an awful lot of things that you can.
Which comes from.
From a medical and I think at some 0.9 call Bookstops.
Okay.
In Namibia noncore will start to put pressure on the operated by the way it's exactly the same and Michelle block shallow released an awful lot of information on that book as well.
So the normal if you like.
The merger hopefully until they're absolutely.
It will be higher.
Fast forward so.
We hear you.
We are doing.
Best to work our way through through this.
Yes.
I mean, the funnel one we'll take from Macquarie.
Shahin Amini: Let's face it, in the last four years, we've made so much money out of this, all the reserves, and we still have material reserves that have been absolutely fantastic assets. I'm going to go through a number of questions from one of our long-standing private investors in Sweden, Mikael. So, there is one on buybacks, and I think we've tackled that, Mikko. I hope you... Do you accept the answer we've given you on that?
Can you provide more color or elaborate on your valuation thinking when you did.
Thanks, Tom.
And if you can provide.
What kind of a first time issuer.
Sure.
Very good Alright, let me start and then you can correct my mistake.
Sorry, we do have very detailed discounted cash flow models, we look at a whole range of scenario technical scenario.
Shahin Amini: There's one on communication strategy; obviously, there's a degree of frustration over what has been disclosed so far about our high-impact catalyst, offshore Namibia. And the question is, well, when can we expect to hear more? When are you in a position to provide those critical technical data? Well, I'll take that one.
But as you can imagine this is a very fast moving story.
Which really reflects the great opportunity we have here.
And it is fast moving so obviously, we had thats detailed analysis, when we sort of as a shareholder it impacts made a decision in relation to that strategic farmout.
Roger Tucker: We are, although it's said it was banned, associated with Tier 1. In total, it's an incredible operation, both for us in Nigeria and in Namibia, Chevron, Chevron White. However, we are restricted, under the terms of our agreement, more information than the operator is actually currently issuing for public markets. And obviously, we have access to the raw data, we have our own opinions, and we make our own decisions on the basis of that data, but currently, we are restricted in exactly what we can say to the market. You must follow what the operator says.
Again to Rogers earlier point, the fact that we had this man gets a success post the Pompe mouse just goes to show what a good decision. It was there's a lot of running room on this block and obviously that is very important.
Tasteful.
It will be paid upon the completion of the deal with the currently picking up the tops already so there is no upfront cost.
And so yes, it's we're very very pleased with that Roger.
Roger Tucker: But as drilling goes on... is going to be a test on Manghetti and all the rest of it, there will ultimately be time for a significant announcement on just what the potential of these assets is. When that is, and when we can start putting pressure on that, is something that obviously we're working on at the moment. But we are determined to be a good partner with Total, and certainly, we don't want any... any leaks, if you like. There is an awful lot of data that you can get, which comes from Mancor.
Yes. It is.
We think the value of it.
Yeah.
Okay.
I've also said.
Erectile function.
In London.
Should the opportunity arise we may be five additional.
Equity in this.
On this asset.
Sure Patrick.
Should it occur.
Maybe well see.
Minimum internal fab.
Nothing.
Sessions at the moment, but we have a very very clear.
The book value of MTV.
At this time.
Both the existing things discovery potentially mandates.
Roger Tucker: And I think at some point, Mancor will start... in Namibia. Namco will start to put pressure on the operators. By the way, it's exactly the same in the Shell block.
Potentially.
On the floor.
Thank you.
Next question.
Again on valuation one step one level higher.
Roger Tucker: Shell aren't releasing an awful lot of information on their block as well, and this is sort of normal, if you like, for nature to hold things until they're absolutely ready to reveal the entire story. We hear you, and we are doing our best to work our way through this. I think the final one we'll take from Mikhail is... Can you provide more color or elaborate on your valuation thinking when you did the impact format deal? Is there anything you can provide?
Any views on valuation of Africa oil with all due respect justman I'll tackle this one as well.
Obviously Canadian issue with comps clearly what the valuations that would be at Red lines that we would never cross one of my points you'd say is all statements of results.
Our year ends.
Numbers. So you can take the statement of reserves you know what the independent valuation of the prime assets.
And then you need to look at our.
Shahin Amini: I can have a first thought about it, Roger, if you would. Very good. All right, let me start, and then you can correct my mistake.
Combined net debts with prime so that will actually take you along.
Thank you.
The bottom line is that we are probably trading at a ridiculously low value.
Shahin Amini: So we do have very detailed discounted cash flow models. We look at a whole range of scenarios, and these are the technical scenarios. But, as you can imagine, this is a very fast-moving story which really reflects the great opportunity we have here, and it is fast-moving. So obviously, we had that detailed analysis when we, sort of, as a shareholder and impact investor, made a decision in relation to that strategic file map. But again, to Roger's earlier point, the fact that we had this Manghetti success just goes to show what a good decision it was.
Paul.
Obviously zero vacuum choppiness, so anyhow that would be your starting point.
So I don't know Roger Pascal, if you want to add anything to that.
Yes.
Point, you to the statement of reserves as the starting points.
For valuing the company.
A couple of strategic ones.
Roger one is in the passive optical oil had guided to have the aspiration to by producing asset is that still part of the plan or have you stopped.
Yes.
Is there still open at depth.
By additional production.
Let me answer the question.
Wrong.
Roger Tucker: There's a lot of running room on this block, and I think that is very important. And it's all paid for, well, will be paid for on the completion of the deal, but they're currently picking up the tabs already, so there is no upfront cost. Roger? Yeah, it is. We obviously know that.
Not yet.
Entering multiple similar potential in existing.
Core assets.
Producing assets.
Just talking about it notes typically in Gabon.
Similarly, we will look at opportunities around our existing assets once we stabilize it.
Maximize.
Finally with existing core assets, we will then.
Strategic decisions.
<unk>.
What we do with the company.
Next slide.
What we're trying to do.
Roger Tucker: I've also said, and I said it at the Coretto Conference in London, and should that occur, should that occur, you may well see what our view of this asset is. There's nothing in discussions at the moment, but we have a very, very clear idea of what the value of the NPV of this asset is, both the existing business discovery potential and then getting the exploration potential on the block. Thank you.
Tick off all of the consolidation.
Opportunities.
As we get ourselves into a position that we have a strong foundation.
We've looked at other.
Opportunities and will be heavily back to base.
And the next four five months.
And with that.
Yes.
Yes, there was a question on Paul and me.
Obviously, well known well reported in the media.
<unk>.
And Chapelle had agreed the deal do you have any comments on those spaces spaces with us.
We can focus on volume.
Shahin Amini: Next question, again on valuation, but one step, one level higher. Any views on the valuation of Africa Oil? With all due respect, gentlemen, I'll tackle that one as well. Obviously, as a Canadian issuer, we can't tell you what the value is.
Not to execute.
Execute today.
Preemption preemption rights.
In respect to the external transactions.
And we will stand on the sidelines just watching.
Perfect.
Sure you bet.
Through to completion.
Yes.
Shahin Amini: That would be a red line that we would never cross. What I point you to is our Statement of Reserve and our year-end numbers. So you can take the Statement of Reserves, you know what the independent valuation of the prime assets is, and then you need to look at our combined net debt with prime, so that will take you along. I think the bottom line is that we are probably trading at a ridiculously low value now, where there's hardly, well, I would say zero value for Venus. So anyway, that would be your starting point. So I don't know, Roger Pascal, if you want to add anything to that. So I will point you to the Statement of Reserves as the starting point for valuing the company. A couple of strategic ones that I have here for you, Roger. One is, in the past, Africa Oil had guided to have the aspiration to buy producing assets.
There's a question on the Pru way.
Allotments.
Can you elaborate on the parameters that would be used for a final investment decision for this project is there any sort of holding you back.
There's no there's nothing there's nothing holding it over here.
Todd.
So it's possible.
Internal.
Economic.
Approval and if it is now.
Correct.
Got it.
Okay.
Ashley can we still continue to have a bit of issue with the <unk>.
So I'm going to do is actually hopefully this might help bring to support CE.
Can we have an issue with that speech.
Yes, possibly.
So maybe you have that one as well.
So hopefully that helps just come closer todays. Thank you Roger sorry about this.
There is someone who has made the observation that mega chine.
Roger Tucker: Is that still part of the plan, or have we stopped that? This is a development endeavor. By official projection, I think I answered the question earlier on.
William Commissioner.
<unk>.
That said recently that.
And then maybe in government and non core expects to have appraisal reports on all of these discoveries offshore Namibia. So on the shelf locked out and obviously the total operates at 2913 feet.
Roger Tucker: We have not... We've got so much potential in the existing core assets, another producing asset in, and I'm just saying it off the top of my head, another specifically in Gabon or somewhere like that. We will look at opportunities around the existing assets, and once we stabilize and maximize the value of the existing core assets, we will then take a strategic decision about what we do with the company in the next phase of growth, all of the consolidation opportunities that we have, get us all into a position that we have a strong foundation, look at other opportunities, and we'll be having that debate in the next four or five months in the boardroom. There is a question on Agbami.
And basically people are now speculating, whether we are getting very close to having more information on Venus and could there be in FY 'twenty to 'twenty four.
I think the.
Hopefully this is now disorders now now person.
I apologize I don't know whether any of your web today is the day that we are moving.
And offices and we're in a sort of borrowed office, which hasn't really worked.
Well, so I apologize for the poor audio.
Yes in a previous question.
Roger Tucker: It is obviously well-known and well-reported in the media that Equinor and Chappelle have agreed a deal. Do you have any comments on the status of this? We can say that Prime has decided not to execute a pre-emption right in respect to the Chaparral-Equinor transaction, and we will stand on the sidelines just watching as that deal progresses through to completion. There's a question about the Pearl Way development. Can you elaborate on the parameters that would be used for a final investment decision for this project? Is there anything that's holding it back?
When asked about when we can.
When can you expect more information on the <unk>.
Yes.
This points towards the other sources of information, namely <unk>.
<unk> core and <unk>.
I think that this question is at this point you are right to it.
Do think that.
Remember, we're going to start to push for more.
<unk> if you like.
Information to be to be submitted because after all this some fairly significant strategic decisions that the government.
And then maybe it needs to make in terms of that.
Roger Tucker: No, there's nothing holding it back at all, it's past all, and we think it is now going to progress through to FIWARE. Okay. Actually, I think we still continue to have a bit of an issue with this audio. So what I'm going to do is, hopefully, this might help bring this forward to you. Yeah, as I said, I think we have an issue with that speaker. This one? Yeah, possibly. So maybe we should have that one as well.
On on Venus.
In 2024 personally and I'm not speaking to total I would doubt it.
Because I think there is more.
More work to be done in house.
As the CEO of <unk>.
Total said.
We need to do is identify the sweet spots in this huge geography.
In order to place the first step DSO in the correct correct place and that is quite a complex thing to do at these water depths.
Shahin Amini: So hopefully that helps. If you could just come closer to this, thank you, Roger. Sorry about that. There is, someone has made the observation that Maggie Sheeney, the Petroleum Commissioner in Namibia, had said recently that... the Namibian government and NAMCORP expect to have appraisal reports on all these discoveries offshore Namibia. So on the shelf, like GALP, and obviously the Total Operator 2913B.
Which requires both seismic and integration of well well data, it's not impossible that go for FY 2024, but personally as a original geosciences firewood.
Ounces.
Thank you Roger.
We've just got a few minutes left so I just wanted to give one final opportunity to see if theres any one I'll do that one.
To submit a question over the conference call line and speak to us.
So Sandra would you be able to just have a look see.
Roger Tucker: And basically, people are now speculating whether we are getting very close to having more information on Venus and whether there will be an FID in 2024. I think the, hopefully, this audio is now better, and I apologise, as I don't know whether any of you are aware but today is the day that we are moving off, and we were in a sort of borrowed office which hasn't really worked terribly well, so I apologise for the poor sound. Yeah, in a previous question, I asked about when you can expect more information on Namibia. I did point out that there are other sources of information, namely at Nam Corp, and I think that this question is pointed right at it. I do think that Nam Corp is going to start to push for more fulsome, if you like, information to be submitted because, after all, there are some fairly significant strategic decisions that the government of Namibia needs to make.
Anyone that wants to raise their hands.
As a reminder.
One on one if you wish to ask a question.
Okay.
No questions at this time please continue.
Okay strategic one.
Roger could tackle is the company considering broadening its investment.
Africa.
Okay.
Right at the moment.
As I said, we've got a very.
Very nice set of core assets, which have got plenty of running room.
In.
<unk>.
To maintain this strategy and as I said, we are going to have to make a strategic decision on what we do next in the next four five months or so.
Yeah.
We.
We will consider all options.
The moment, we are going to be focused purely on the assets that we have with.
<unk>.
Very good.
Georges just confirm behalf this ordeal.
That's good and there was one someone just texted me, it's great isn't getting questions texts everything whatsapp, but the second question is that pardon me. The point was missed on the substantial issuer bid.
Roger Tucker: In terms of FID on Venus in 2024, personally, and I'm not speaking for Total, I would doubt it, but that is because I think there is some more work to be done and, as the CEO of Total said, what we need to do is identify the sweet spots in this huge geography in order to place the first FBSO in the correct place, and that is quite a complex thing to do at these water depths and which requires both seismic and integration It's not impossible, they go for FID in 2024, but personally, as an original geoscientist, I would doubt it.
To tackle the Pascal, but it keeps coming coming I'm coming would you be able to just wrap things around the share buybacks, but specifically, Texas the SLA.
Yes.
So yes at the moment.
In CIB.
Well, we are capped at 10% of our controls.
We are targeting value, we have a significant portion of that.
10%.
<unk>.
Uh huh.
We still want to be conservative.
Aw.
Cash position.
For example, potentially all the deals done.
Shahin Amini: Thank you, Roger. We've just got a few minutes left. I just want to give one final opportunity if there's anyone out there that wants to submit a question over the conference call line and speak to us. So Sandra, would you be able to just have a look, see if there's anyone that wants to raise their hand?
Hello, Joe.
The potential consolidation of all of our.
Investments into <unk>.
The volume value of companies. So thats something we are considering at the moment, which means that.
We need to stick to profit currently $50 million that we have on the balance as of today.
So I think the immediate answer would be not.
Not for the moment.
Operator: As a reminder, it's Star 1 and 1 if you wish to ask a question. Thank you. No questions at this time, please continue. Okay, a strategic one that Roger could tackle.
<unk>. This is consolidation and I think Roger hinted out of here a few ideas in terms of impact on crime potentially so.
That's something we keep in mind that at the same time.
Ample flexibility with DNP in CIB too.
And increase the speed of the <unk>.
Which we are definitely considering the limits.
Roger Tucker: Is the company considering broadening its investment area outside of Africa? Right at the moment, we've got, as I said, a very nice set of core assets which have got plenty of running room in them to maintain the strategy, and as I said, we are going to have to make a strategic decision on what we do next in the next four or five months or so. We will consider all options, but at the moment, we are going to be focused purely on the assets that we have got. Very good George has just confirmed we have better audio, so great, that's good. There was one, someone just texted me. It's great, isn't it, getting questions, texts, everything, WhatsApp, but the text question is that apparently the point was missed on a substantial issue at the moment.
And so that's a decision that is going to be revisited by the board for the quarterly basis.
And yesterday, we will have another one in the quarter two to make sure that the.
The level of.
The NCI.
Right right.
Okay to.
Two questions on that.
Our strategic farmed down deal between the impact on total.
One is <unk>.
Impact and by extension Africa oil.
Carriage.
All of the activities all recovered.
Yes.
Carey covered exploration and appraisal expenditures on both blocks.
<unk> for the feedstock.
Beginning of this year from now.
The beginning they expect to exit the first of January back to essentially the first.
John but the first half cash flow to be received by quarter for this year is basically.
So the optimal okay. This is a firsthand about the kind of going to pay out cash flow on obs on we are going to pay all of the cash flows going forward.
Pascal Nicodemus: You kind of tackled it, Pascal, but it keeps coming, coming, and coming. Would you be able to just wrap things around the share buybacks but specifically tackle the SIB? Yeah. So, at the moment, we have this NTIB in place where we are capped at 10% of our pre-float. We are targeting to buy a significant portion of that 10% pre-float. However, we still want to be conservative and keep our cash position to prepare for potential other deals. Roger has discussed the potential consolidation of our investments into our various companies, so that's something we are considering at the moment, which means that we need to stick to part of the $230 million that we have on the balance sheet as of today.
That's a key point to make it that way.
We will not have to center quota in equity raise it pulled back going forward okay.
The key productivity as you know, which is down $44 million last year.
Semi O'connor and <unk>.
With that Michelle and if so any thoughts on that.
So just to reaffirm that we talked about the two blocks that we do have 222 pieces of acreage, but the carry cupboards activity, including <unk>, including the next X.
<unk>, well, which is.
It's going to be somewhere else in the.
Somewhere else in the.
In the block and it accumulates.
But the.
The work on both of these.
Blocks until first hydrocarbons, so increased development as well.
We're wondering if both we have Ron answer I'm going to go off script here and share some of my own personal experience if I may.
Pascal Nicodemus: So I think the immediate answer would be no until we have clarity on this consolidation. And I think Roger did have a few ideas in terms of impact and potential, so that's something we keep in mind. But at the same time, we have ample flexibility with the current NCID to increase the speed of the NCID, which we are definitely considering at the moment.
Privilege upbringing both of the optical story for 13 years now some of you know I used to cover it as a sell side analyst.
The company four years ago.
Half years ago the <unk>.
Company is an absolutely great shape and hopefully you can see that in our year end results I am very happy and I have to say that the recent changes that Roger has implemented are very good and we are.
Excellent shape, and we have a great platform to take the next steps and we will see this.
Roger Tucker: So that's a decision that is going, of course, to be revisited, at least by the board on a quarterly basis. We had a bulletin yesterday; we will have another one in a quarter of time to make sure that the level of the NCIB is set at the right level. Okay. Two questions on the strategic farm deal between IMPACT and Total.
Volatility in the markets and we will get through this as before with hot.
That is my view and that's my position I feel very strongly about it on that Roger over to you for any concluding remarks, yes, all other what I will say is.
I do apologize for this disorder it wasn't anticipated to be.
To be like this.
Well, we will be in a new new offices, and you've probably seen me on screen absolutely freezing cold in here because not only is the audio path with the heating in the room isn't.
Shahin Amini: One is, is IMPACT, and by extension Africa Oil, carried on all the activities now? Okay. All be covered on Mangezi. Yes, so the carry covers, exploitation, and the... And that's from the beginning of this year?
Isn't isn't working so we do need to get Australia.
Yes.
But thank you very much for participating.
Pascal Nicodemus: So this is the first time that Qatar is going to pay a cash flow to RBI. They are going to pay all the cash flows going forward. I think that's the key point to make is that we will not have to stand our corner in equity-rated, foreign-backed bonds going forward. Which is a key point for us. As you know, we spent $44 million last year standing our corner, and this year could have been much longer. And there's no interest on the cash? And there's no interest on the cash.
And this and we'll see you next time.
Sure.
All such disconnect now.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating you may now disconnect.
[music].
Okay.
[music].
Pascal Nicodemus: Just to reaffirm, we talk about the two blocks. We do have two pieces of acreage, but the carry covers activity including, say, Mangeti, including the next exploration well somewhere else in the block, and it accumulates over the work on both of these blocks until first hydrocarbons. So it includes development as well. Edward?
Edward: Yeah. We're running out... Well, we have run out of time. I'm going to go off script here and share some of my own personal experiences, if I may.
<unk>.
Yes.
Okay.
[music].
Edward: I've had the privilege of being involved with the Africa Oil story for 13 years now. Some of you know I used to cover it as a sell-side analyst, and I joined the company four years, well, four and a half years ago. The company is in absolutely great shape, and hopefully you can see that in our year-end results. I'm very happy, and I have to say that the recent changes that Roger has implemented are very good, and we are in excellent shape, and we have a great platform to take the next steps. And we will see this volatility in the markets, and we will get through this, as we've always done. That is my view, and that is my position, and I feel very strongly about it.
Roger Tucker: On that, Roger, over to you for any concluding remarks. All I will say is I do apologise for this audio, it wasn't anticipated to be like this. And the next one we will be in our new offices, and you've probably seen me on screen here. We're absolutely freezing cold here because not only is the audio bad, but the heating in the room isn't working.
Okay.
[music].
Operator: So we do need to get off fairly soon. But thank you very much for participating in this and we'll see you next time. Are we all set to disconnect now? This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. C. The American Heart Association presents A film by A film by A film by A film by A film by [inaudible] A film by A film by A film by A film by, Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music, This video was made in Cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
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Sure.
Yes.
Okay.
[music].