Q4 2024 Ryanair Holdings PLC Earnings Call

Yeah.

Maxine: Hello, and welcome everyone to the REIT Holdings plc FY 'twenty full earnings me My name is Maxine and I'll be coordinating the call. Today. If you have an outsourced supply chains may be picked up by first off they buy one on if you think he pack.

Michael: Hi, Jay its Mike wondering NAREIT group Vine at holdings to begin Michael. Please go ahead, when you're ready.

Unknown Executive: Okay, good morning, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Ryanair full-year results call. I'm joined by all the members of the team. I'm in New York.

Speaker Change: Okay. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Ryanair full year results.

Unknown Executive: Various members of the team are spread across Ireland, the UK, and Europe. The only member who's in France at the moment is Tracey Malloy, our CFO, so she's in this and only mode and won't be able to contribute to the call today. You'll have seen this morning we reported full-year profits of 34% to $1.92 billion, as traffic grew last year by 9% to $184 million, despite delivery delays which have hampered our traffic growth.

Unknown Executive: And we've also announced a timely $700 million share by... And over the full year, I said the highlights of the traffic grew 9% to 184 million passengers. But despite that, the fuel bill also jumped 32% to 1.25 billion.

Unknown Executive: We took delivery of, well, we have 146 game-changers in the fleet at the end of March. This summer, we're still growing strongly. We're opening five new bases and over 200 new routes for summer 24. We've already hedged 70% of our FY25 fuel at about $79 a barrel, so we've locked in fuel savings of about 450 million for the next year. In 2024, we pay our maiden interim dividend of 400 million euros, 200 million paid in February and 200 million in September.

Unknown Executive: We continue to look forward to our Boeing Max 10 order of 300 aircraft, the first deliveries of which start in spring 2027. However, we continue to face delivery challenges with Boeing. As I said, we have 146 game changers at the end of March.

Speaker Change: Coal and I'm joined by all the members of the Miami and New York are very serious and team are spread across Ireland, the UK Europe and the only member who's trying to do all of these Tracy minimally our CFO. So she is in listen only mode and won't be able to contribute to the call today.

Unknown Executive: We hope to increase this to 158 by the end of July. However, that would be 23 aircraft short of our contracted Boeing deliveries for summer 2024. However, we'll continue to work closely with Boeing, Dave Calhoun, Brian West, and Stephanie Pope in Seattle. We have recently seen an improvement in the quality of the fuselages being delivered from Wichita to Seattle and also an improvement in the quality of the final deliveries we're getting in Seattle.

Unknown Executive: What we now need is a plan to accelerate our 737 delivery. There remains a risk that Boeing deliveries could slip further, although we're becoming increasingly optimistic that the nine extra aircraft we get through June and July will be delivered on time, and at least we'll be able to use those through August and September. However, these delays mean that more traffic growth will occur in the lower-yielding H2 than we had originally planned, and as a result, we've cut back our full-year traffic forecast this year from an original 205 million passengers to a range of between 198 million and 200 million.

Speaker Change: <unk> seen this morning, we reported full year profit up 34% to $1 92 billion.

Speaker Change: As traffic grew last year by 9% to $184 million, despite Boeing delivery delays, which have hampered our profit growth.

Speaker Change: We also announced a <unk> 700 million share buyback and over the full year I said, the highlights and the traffic grew 9% to 184 million passengers.

Speaker Change: Despite that the fuel Bill also real jumps towards the 2% to $1. Two fight up 1.25 billion to just over 5 billion euros, and we took delivery of a well we have 146 game changers in the fleet at the end of March there is some of them are still growing strongly we're opening five new base has been over 200, new routes for somewhere.

Speaker Change: For a.

Speaker Change: We've already hedged 70% of our FY 'twenty five fuel at about $79 a barrel. So we've locked in fuel savings of about 450 million. After the next year and in the 2024, we're paying a maiden interim dividend of 400 million euros 200 million paid in February and $200 million.

In September.

Speaker Change: And we continue to look forward to our at Boeing Max 10 order 300 aircraft deliveries.

Speaker Change: Deliveries of feedstock in our spring 2027.

Speaker Change: We continue to debate delivery challenges has been Boeing as I said, we have 146 game changers at the end of March we hope to increase this to 158 by the end of July that would be 23 aircraft short of our contract with Boeing deliveries for summer 2024, and however will continue to work closely with Boeing.

Speaker Change: Dave Calhoun, Brian West and Stephanie Pope in Seattle.

Speaker Change: We haven't seen recently an improvement in the quality of the fuselage is being delivered from Wichita to Seattle and also an improvement in the quality all but the final outcome of final delivery forgetting in Seattle will be now need is there a plan to accelerate our 737 deliveries there remains a race that Boeing deliveries could slip further although.

Speaker Change: We are becoming increasingly optimistic that they are denied extra aircraft, we get through June and July will be delivered on time or at least we'll be able to use those through August and September. However, these delays mean that more traffic growth will occur in the lower yielding H two than we had originally planned and as a result, we cut back our full year.

Speaker Change: Traffic forecast this year from an original 200 million passengers to a range of between $198 million and $200 million.

Unknown Executive: Travel demand in Europe remains strong for summer 2024, it's positive, and despite these Boeing delivery delays, we'll still operate our largest ever summer schedule with over 200 new routes and five new bases. We expect capacity in Europe to be constrained as the consolidation process continues. Airlines, particularly in Europe, ground a significant number of A320 aircraft for Pratt & Whitney engine repairs, and both OEMs struggle to recover their delivery.

Speaker Change: Can I have the demand in Europe remains strong for summer 2024 positive and despite these Boeing delivery delays, we still operate our largest ever some rescheduled with over 200 new routes.

Speaker Change: And fight new basis.

Speaker Change: We expect our.

Speaker Change: Capacity in Europe to be constrained.

Speaker Change: <unk> consolidation profits continues and airlines, particularly in Europe ground, a significant number of <unk> hundred 20 aircraft for Pratt <unk> Whitney engine.

Speaker Change: Repairs and both Oems struggled struggled to recover their delivery backlogs.

Unknown Executive: And as a result, however, we're a little bit surprised that the pricing is soft. We had thought with these capacity constraints, prices this summer would rise somewhere between, I mean, somewhere between 5% and 10%. However, because we had an early Easter at the end of March into early April, pricing through the back end of April, May, and into June was a little bit weaker than we'd expected. In fact, it would be slightly down on Q1 last year.

Speaker Change: And as a result however.

Speaker Change: Our pricing is soft we had talked with these capacity constraints pricing. This summer would write between I mean somewhere between five and 10%.

Speaker Change: We had an early Easter at the end of March into early April pricing through the back end of April may and into June is a little bit weaker than we'd expected that it would be slightly down on Q1 last year.

Unknown Executive: We still see prices being up in the peak summer months of July, August, and September, but at this stage, we think that to be zero to 5%, and at this point in time, not five to 10%. Now we still have less than 50% of the bookings made for that July-August-September quarter, so it could go either way. Pricing could firm as we go into the summer peak, or it might weaken further. And if it weakens further, it weakens.

Speaker Change: The pricing being up in the peak summer months of July August and September but at this stage, we think that to be zero to 5% observed at this point in time not quite 10% now we still have less than 50 presented the bookings made for that July August September quarter, and so it could go either way our pricing could firm.

Speaker Change: As we go into the summer peak or it might weaken further and if it weakens further weakened and we will continue to be load factor active price passive at just meet people and families traveling in Europe. This year, we get better deals.

Unknown Executive: We will continue to be low-factor active and price passive. It just means people and families traveling in Europe this year will get better deals and better prices on Ryanair. We expect European airline consolidation to continue, and we do, in principle, support that consolidation process. We think Lufthansa should be allowed to acquire Ita, and IAEA should be allowed to acquire Air Europa as long as there are appropriate competition remedies, i.e. slot handovers at congested airports like Milan-Lenate and Madrid.

Speaker Change: It's better pricing on Ryanair, we expect European airline consolidation to continue and we do in principle support that consolidation process. We think lufthansa should be allowed to acquire is at IAG should be allowed to acquire air Europa.

Speaker Change: As long as they're appropriate competition remedies I E slower handovers that congested airports like.

Speaker Change: Miranda and assay.

Speaker Change: And at Madrid, and admit rate.

Unknown Executive: Looking forward, over the last 12 months, as I said, traffic grew 9% to $184 million. Average fares rose 21%, but that was badly needed because our fuel bill rose by 35%. Overall, total revenues jumped 25% to $13.5 billion.

Speaker Change: Looking forward over the last 12 months as I said traffic grew 9% to 184 million and average fares rose, 21%, but that was badly needed because our fuel bill.

Speaker Change: Rose by 35% overall.

Speaker Change: Overall total revenues jumped 25% to 13 point by billion operating costs were up 24% to 12 billion, primarily due to a 32% increase in fuel cost.

Unknown Executive: Operating costs were up 24% to $12 billion, primarily due to a 32% increase in fuel. More importantly, however, the cost gap between Ryanair and all of our other EU competitors has widened significantly, seen that with much higher unit cost rises from competitors who announced results over the last two weeks, as we previously communicated, to launch a share buyback scheme. The board has approved a share buyback of €700 million, which will take place over the next six months.

More importantly, however, the cost gap between Ryanair and all of our other competitors has widened significantly and will have seen that with at.

Speaker Change: At much higher unit costs license palm competitors, who announced results over the last two weeks.

Speaker Change: FY 'twenty five funeral crime and terror over 70% hedged at just under $80 a barrel and we've also locked away. The first 10% of our FY 'twenty. Thank you.

Speaker Change: Requirements at about $79, a barrel engineered balance sheet was in good shape net cash was just over one point to $3 billion and that was somewhat boosted by Boeing delivery delays, but that's given us.

The opportunity as we've previously communicated.

Speaker Change: To launch a share buyback.

Speaker Change: Scheme. The board has approved a share buyback, all but 700 million euros, which will take place over the next six months can you get all of it is obviously in our outlook and let's see what things. We know we expect our traffic to grow by about 8% so somewhere between finished ourselves.

Unknown Executive: Key to all of this is obviously our outlook. Let's see what we know. We expect our traffic to grow by about 8%, so somewhere between 198 and 200 million passengers. That is still due to Boeing delivery delays, but there's less uncertainty now that we only have nine more aircraft to take in June and July. Cost-advanced over competitors continues to widen. However, we do expect unit costs to rise modestly at next fuel costs, such as particularly pay and productivity allowance.

Speaker Change: 198 to 200 million passengers.

Speaker Change: It is W. Chipotle delivery delays, but there's less uncertainty now that we have only nine more aircraft to take in June and July.

Speaker Change: Most advantage over competitors continues to widen and we do expect unit costs to rise modestly ex fuel costs, such as particularly pay and productivity allowances hire her.

Unknown Executive: Higher Handling and ATC Fees, and the impact of the Game Changer delivery delays, are substantially offset by our fuel hedge savings and our rising interest income. While EU short-haul capacity is constrained, summer 2024 demand is positive, with both trends slightly ahead of last year. Recent pricing is softer than we expected, and I can't really explain why, other than there's a little consumer resistance out there, and most airlines are engaged in price promotions through April, May, and June, and if they are, then we will lead the market with price promotions.

Speaker Change: Handling and ATC fees and the impact of the game changer delivery delays on Crewing ratios and fixed cost is substantially offset by a fuel hedge savings in a rising interest income.

Speaker Change: While EU short haul capacity is constrained somewhere 24 demand is positive with both it's trending slightly ahead of last year recent pricing is softer than we expected and.

Speaker Change: Really explain why other than that.

Speaker Change: Tumor resistance out there and most airlines are engaged in price promotion through April may and June and if they are then we will lead the market with price promotions Q1 is requiring more price stimulation that last year, that's fair and profits in Q1 would be behind where they were or will be lower than they were in Q1 last year.

Unknown Executive: Q1 is requiring more price stimulation than last year, and fares and profits in Q1 will be behind where they were, will be lower than they were in Q1 last year, particularly as half of Easter moved into March, into Q4, and if you remember, we had a bumper Q4 result in today's annual result. Our visibility is limited, and our outcome, as always, this time of year, will be heavily dependent on close-in peak summer 2024 pricing, and we remain cautiously optimistic that peak summer 2024 fares will be flat to modestly ahead of last summer.

Speaker Change: <unk> is half of Easter moved into March into Q4, and if you remember we had a bumper Q.

Speaker Change: Q4.

Speaker Change: As a result of it.

And to date the annual result.

Speaker Change: Our visibility is limited our outcome at all with this family will be heavily dependent on closing peak summer 2020 for pricing and we remain cautiously optimistic that peak number 24 affairs would be flat to modestly ahead of last summer.

Unknown Executive: Q4 2020 FY25 will not benefit from an early Easter, as it did in FY24. However, it's too early to provide sensible or accurate full-year guidance, and the final outcome for FY25 will be heavily dependent on avoiding adverse events during the year, such as adverse developments in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Middle East. A repeat of last year's extensive ATC disruptions is further slowing delivery delays.

Speaker Change: Q4, 2020, FY 'twenty five will not benefit from an early Easter as it did in FY 'twenty. Four however, it's too early to provide a sense of it are accurate full year guidance and the final outcome of our 25 would be heavily dependent on avoiding adverse events during the year such as adverse.

Speaker Change: Development in Ukraine, the Middle East a repeat of last year's extensive ATC disruptions are further fully delivery delays.

Neil Thorne: And with that, I'm going to hand over to our CFO, Neil Thorne, to take us through some points and themes on the NDNA. Neil, on the balance sheet, triple B plus rated balance sheet, exceptionally strong. And as Michael said, we finished with well over four billion in gross cash and just under 1.4 billion in net cash at the end of the year. This has given the board confidence, having restored pay, having paid down significant debt over the past couple of years and funded large CapEx to now launch the buyback, the 700 million buyback that will formally launch tomorrow morning, more or less offset the non-fuel price inflation with the fuel savings over the course of the next year, and then, of course, happier with where we are with Boeing at the moment and looking forward to getting the balance of the game changers and the first I'm Ed Wilson, the CEO of DAC.

Speaker Change: With that I'm going to hand over to our CFO, Neil Thor and take us through some at Boynton teams on the N DNA deal.

Speaker Change: Okay. Thank you Michael.

Neil Glynn: You covered a lot there, but I'll focus in a little bit more on the balance sheet Triple B plus rated balance sheet is exceptionally strong.

Michael: And as Michael said, we finished with well over 4 billion in gross cash and just under $1 4 billion net cash at the end of the year. This has given the board's confidence having restored pay having paid down significant debt over the past couple of years and so on the large capex and have launched it.

Mark.

Mark: The 700 million buyback that will formally launch tomorrow morning.

Mark: And as Ron for about six months periods broadly split between the <unk> the.

Speaker Change: Non EU and the U S shareholdings and so delivering on the capital allocation policy on top of the dividend program that was rolled out last.

November.

Speaker Change: The cost base in good shape, we came in exactly where we said we went on a per passenger basis last year that gap between ourselves and everybody else widening and very pleased that thanks to the hedging we have will more or less offset the non fuel price inflation with the fuel savings over the course of the neck.

Speaker Change: First year, and then of course happy with where we are with Boeing at the moment and I'm looking forward to getting the balance of the game changers.

Speaker Change: First off the Max hands over the next couple of years.

Edward Wilson: You might give us a flavour of what you're seeing in terms of new root growth in market share across some of the key markets in Europe this summer. Yeah, I think the, I mean, we're going to grow by about 9% this summer versus last summer. That's up almost 37% from summer 19. Just slightly over two and a half thousand routes, but the big callouts, I suppose, are like Spain, we have an extra 11 aircraft in there, Italy still growing strongly, two new bases there of the five new bases in Italy in Reggio Calabria and Trieste, Poland, Central and Eastern Europe, including Albania, growing strongly, and Morocco as well, growing strongly, new base there in Tangier, and also we are operating domestics there, albeit on a very small scale, but they're going well at the moment.

Speaker Change: So it's a nice deal.

Ed: Ed you mentioned the deal that you might give us a flavor on what youre seeing in terms of your.

Speaker Change: Do you root growth end market the crop market share across some of the key markets in Europe. This summer.

Yes, I think the I mean, where we're going to grow by about 9% this summer versus last summer.

Speaker Change: Almost 37% from silver 19, just slightly over two and a half has roots with a big call outs I suppose.

Speaker Change: Our like Spain, with an extra of 11 aircrafts and they are actually still growing strongly.

Speaker Change: Two new basis there.

Speaker Change: This year based on everything in Reggio Calabria and tree assay.

Speaker Change: Poland Central Eastern Europe, including Albania growing strongly.

Morocco, as well growing strongly with new base their intent here.

Speaker Change: Also we.

Speaker Change: We are great in domestics, there, albeit on a very small scale, but they are going and they're going well at the moment.

Unknown Executive: So capacity is going where we can, where we've got it, and we are maintaining our pressure on costs there, and those airports that reward us with lower costs are getting the capacity. If you look at, you know, that recently in Bordeaux, where we had to close the base because the costs were going to rise substantially over what we had contracted for. You can see in Venice where the municipal tax has grown there, same in Portugal, and also here in Dublin where we're going to have the double whammy of airport costs growing by up to 46% over the next five to six years.

Speaker Change: So capacity is going where we can where we've got we are maintaining our pressure on.

Speaker Change: Cause there.

Speaker Change: Airports that reward us with lower costs or get anything capacity, if you look at that.

Speaker Change: Recently in Bordeaux, where Oh, we have to close the base because they are the costs are going to rise substantially over what we had contracted four you can see in Venice, where the municipal tax has grown there and same same in Portugal and also here in Dublin, where we're going to have them.

Speaker Change: Well, we've got the double whammy of airport costs growing by over 46% over the next five or six years, we've taken out all they are game changers that are there and we got the capacity cap in Dublin, which we would probably see airfares.

Unknown Executive: We've taken out all the game changers, and we've got the capacity cap in Dublin, which will probably see airfares spiral this winter because we'll be unable to put in extra capacity for key events such as Christmas, the New Year, the school break, and extras generally. So overall, the message is that airports that reward growth with lower costs get more Ryanair capacity, and those that don't, don't get it. Thanks Eddie, just to make sure we announced the closure of the Bordeaux base in November, so we are still planning Bordeaux, it will be through the summer, but it closes in November, and already we've had a number of other airports, including French airports, onto the new scene looking to secure those aircraft, but they've already been allocated to this winter. Okay, Maxine, with that, we open up for Q&A. Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, you may do so by pressing star followed by 1 on your telephone keypad.

Speaker Change: Spyros.

Speaker Change: Winter because there will be unable to put in extra capacity for key events, such as Christmas and.

The new <unk>.

Speaker Change: School breaks and all that.

Speaker Change: Extra as January but overall the message is those airports that reward.

Speaker Change: Both with lower costs get more right air capacity and those that don't don't get it.

Speaker Change: Thanks, and just make sure everybody understands where we announced the closure of the Goto base from November. So we are still Florida will be key to somewhere but it closes in November and already we've had a number of other airports, including French airports onto the new we've seen looking to secure those aircraft, but they've already been allocated by this winter.

Speaker Change: Okay with that we'll open up for Q&A.

Speaker Change: If you would like to ask a question you know do you see that consumer stocking up by one I guess more turnkey path.

Speaker Change: Pete.

Speaker Change: Rhonda controversial question. Please ensure that your line is muted locally.

Operator: If you do change your mind, please press star followed by 2. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure that your line is unmuted. Our first question today comes from Harry Gowers from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead, Harry. Your line is now open.

Our question today.

Speaker Change: From JP Morgan. Please go ahead sorry. Your line is now open.

Speaker Change: Alright.

Harry J. Gowers: Hey, morning, Michael. Morning, Neil. Two questions, if I can. The first one is just on those peak summer fares. Maybe you could go through what you think has actually changed compared to before when the fares were being talked about five to 10% higher. Have you actually seen any large weakening in demand over the past month, or maybe the original message was set a little bit too high? And then secondly, just on Capex, probably one for Neil.

Michael: Hey, good morning, Michael morning, There are two questions. If I can first of all just those two.

Speaker Change: <unk>, maybe you could go through what you think is actually changed compared to before when the fabs within talks about 5% to 10% higher.

Speaker Change: As you've seen any large weakening in demand over the past month or maybe the original message was that a little bit too high and then secondly, just on Capex, probably one for me obviously that has impacts on timing from the Boeing delivery delays and maybe 400 to 500 million might have shifted into March 2025, I mean, it pays like that.

Unknown Executive: Obviously, there's impacts on timing from the Boeing delivery delays, and maybe 400 to 500 million might have shifted into March 2025. I mean, it appears like the Capex guide is maybe 500 million higher beyond just those delivery delays into March 2025. So maybe you could just detail out the new Capex guidance, and has there been a noticeable increase in the non-delivery-related Capex spend? Thanks a lot.

Speaker Change: Capex guidance, maybe 500 million higher beyond just those delivery delays into March 2025, say, maybe you could just detail out the new capex guidance.

Speaker Change: Been a noticeable increase in the non delivery related capex spend thanks a lot.

Unknown Executive: Okay, I'll take the fares, and you do the CAPEX. So, let me give you what we think is happening with fares. A couple of issues. First, one, we've come off two summers where we had, you know, cumulatively, two summers where fares were up 20% for the last two summers. We expected that this summer would be marginally softer. Originally, you know, we thought it could be up maybe 5-10% or some single-digit number, but we wouldn't have a third year of 20% fare increases.

Speaker Change: Okay I'll take the first that you and I need you to do the Capex. So you can work with what we think is happening on fares.

Speaker Change: Couple of issues, where it won't be come off two summers, where we've had you know Cumulus V. Two summers are about 22, and 23 of post Covid recovery fares were up 20.

Speaker Change: 20% for the last two summers.

Speaker Change: There's some of it would be marginally softer originally you know we thought it could be up maybe 510% you'd be something of that nature, but we wouldn't have a third year of 20% very accretive.

Speaker Change: I think we also expect is that with the earlier Easter the backend debate, but would be weaker and would be where does it kind of a longer run from the Easter.

Unknown Executive: I think we also expected that with the earlier Easter, the back end of April would be weaker and would be kind of a longer run from Easter through to the summer holidays. But I think it's fair to say we did think that fares would be stronger towards the summer, May, June, July, August, particularly with capacity constraints. And most notably, the year 8-3-20 groundings, which really bite once the summer schedule kicks into place in April.

Speaker Change: Some of our holiday but.

Speaker Change: But I think it's fair to say, we did think that first would be a stronger towards the summer and May June July August, particularly with capacity constraints and most notably the <unk> hundred 20 grounding switch really bite wants to some extent you will kick into place in April one of our competitors for example.

Unknown Executive: One of our competitors, for example, they're a lot smaller and announced a decline in traffic in April because of these 8-3-20 groundings. So the capacity constraint is real. And I think, you know, when you look to analyze what's happening in the short term, the honest answer is, we're not sure. We think it's a combination of two things.

Walter: Walter with announced a decline in traffic.

Walter: In April bad because those are in our neighborhood because of these are the 320 ground do so.

Walter: The capacity constraint is wheel and I think you know.

Walter: When you look to analyze what's happening in the short term you're honest answer is we're not sure. We think it's a combination of two things one the dispute with the Otas are where a lot of the Otas Pirates took us off saying that in December and January were gradually putting says the otas are doing approved OTT distribution deals with tens I hate to that we are seeing.

Walter: So I'd hate to all kind of what we would say the leisure routes U K, Spain, UK Canadian East, Germany, Spain and.

Walter: Scandinavia, Spain, and a lot of those are coming back online we are using the benefit of our improved otas, which ensure.

Walter: Consumers are not being overcharged and we think that was a award that's worth fighting and it's clearly one that were winning on behalf of the consumer at the moment that has probably had some small impact we think overall however, it just a little bit softer out there that we expected a degree or appears to be some degree of consumer resistant.

Unknown Executive: One, the dispute with the OTAs, where a lot of the OTA pirates took us off sale in December and January; we're gradually putting some of the winning on behalf of the consumer at the moment. But that has probably had some small impact. We think overall, however, it's just a little bit softer out there than we expected. There's a degree or appears to be some degree of consumer resistance, there may be some kind of recessionary feel out there. There's not a lot of consumer spending or confidence across Europe in consumer spending, and maybe that's reflected in what we would call shoulder period bookings and uh and shoulder bookings and fares now. When we engage Pricing is going to be softer this summer; it's going to be softer. But when we stimulate, we see very strong volume growth. And we've seen that throughout the piece.

Walter: Hey, there may be some kind of recession, we feel out there there's not a lot of consumer spending our competence across Europe in consumer spending and maybe that's reflected in what we would call a shoulder period bookings and AR and showed the bookings in pets now when we engage in price stimulation as we have done over the last four years.

Walter: Five weeks, we see strong volumes. So there's strong volumes out there not to beat up to keep the pricing is going to be softer. This summer, it's going to be softer at but when we stimulate we see very strong volume growth and we've seen that across the piece almost all of the airlines at the short haul space in Europe have been engaging and seek to now maybe.

Unknown Executive: Almost all of the airlines in the short-haul space in Europe have been engaging in seat sales. Now, maybe we're the authors of that, but we're going to be aggressive on pricing. And if consumers and their families across Europe fly at slightly lower fares or slightly lower fares than we originally predicted this summer, then that's what it's going to be, and we will lead that trend. We could do so with a very strong base with unit costs largely nailed down, unit costs rising at a far slower rate than it is among any of our competitors in Europe, and therefore we do so from a very strong position of strength.

Walter: The authors of that but we're going to be aggressive on pricing and if consumers and their families across Europe by a slightly lower fares are less higher effect than we originally predicted. This summer then that's what it's going to be and we will lead that trend we could do so with a very strong base with unit costs largely nailed down.

When it costs rising at a far slower rate than it is the mountain on any of our competitors in Europe and therefore, we do so from a very strong position of strength. So that's always good.

Unknown Executive: So, as always, if there's a bit of price softness out there this summer, and I would describe it as no more than price softness, we will accept that as our fate, and we will be strong on volumes and a little bit softer than we originally thought on pricing. But I don't think that detracts from the medium-term outlook, which, to my mind, is still capacity constraints across Europe for the next two, three

Walter: Has it been a price softness out there just so far and I describe it as no more than price office at we will accept that as our faith and we would be strong volumes and a little bit softer than we originally thought on pricing I don't think that detract from the medium term outlook, which to my mind, there's still capacity constraints across Europe for the next two or three summers.

Unknown Executive: And average airfares will rise over that period of time as long as there are no unforeseen events because I can see no outcome other than continuing manufacturing delivery delays, continuing A320 groundings, and hopefully the payout of the consolidation story in Europe. So, in the short term, a little softer than we thought.

Walter: And an average air fares will rise over that period of time as long as there's no unforeseen events, because I can see no outcome other than continuing manufacturing delivery delays, continuing <unk> hundred 20, groundings and hopefully that the payout with the consolidation story in Europe, So short term little softer than we thought.

Neil: If that's what it's going to be, then that's what it's going to be, and we will be aggressive and lead that process. Over the medium-term, I think it's inevitable that the next two or three summers in Europe, pricing with constraint capacity will be modestly upward. Now Neil, I can't take speed. Yeah, hi Harry, how are you doing?

Walter: If that's what it is going to be there and that's what it's going to be and we will be aggressive at lead that profit over the medium term I think it's inevitable that next two or three summers in Europe pricing with constrained capacity with modest will be modestly.

Walter: Upward.

Walter: Capex paid.

Neil: Yeah, 2.3 billion in capex for this year. A good chunk of that is pre-delivery payments and delivery payments that have moved forward into FY25. On top of that, maintenance capex, but we've also got some additional spare engines, some hangar construction, and sim centers construction underway. And then we start the first of the max 10 PDPs.

Speaker Change: Hi, Harry how are you doing.

Speaker Change: $2 3 billion Capex for this year, a good chunk of the pre delivery payments and delivery payments that have move forwards.

Speaker Change: Into FY 'twenty five on top of that maintenance Capex, but we've also got some additional spare engines. Some hangar construction same centers.

Speaker Change: Strokes and on their way and then we start the first off the Max 10, Pdp's Big step down next year, where we're primarily just looking asset maintenance capex, a little dip down to just over 1 billion, maybe 1 billion. One 1.1 next year and then we've kind of lighter capex for you.

Neil: Big step down next year, where we're primarily just looking at maintenance capex, so it'll dip down to just over a billion, maybe a billion 1.1 next year. And then we have kind of light capex for a year or so before it starts to rise again with the pre-delivery payments on the max 10 and the delivery payments on the max 10 in FY26 and FY27. Thank you, thank you very much.

Speaker Change: Year or so before it starts to top up again with the pre delivery payments on the Max 10.

Speaker Change: And the delivery payments on the Max 10 in 'twenty six 'twenty seven.

Speaker Change: Thanks.

Speaker Change: Okay.

Dudley Shanley: Thank you. The next question comes from Dudley Shanley from Goodbody. Please go ahead, Dudley; your line is now open.

Speaker Change: Either not cracking.

Speaker Change: Sami from Goodbody. Please go how badly your line is now open.

Unknown Executive: Good morning everyone. Two questions from me and Michael. You touched on both issues a minute ago. First of all, if we think of the airline consolidation in Europe, and I think before you've mentioned that, ultimately, it comes down to four players, which are the three flags and Ryanair, it seems as though the European Commission is getting a bit stricter in terms of getting these deals through. So do you still think that's the end game for consolidation?

Good morning, everyone two questions for me and Michael you touched on both issues and then as you go first of all.

Sami: If you think of the airline consolidation in Europe, and I think before you've mentioned that ultimately it comes down to four players, which are three flags and ryanair. It seems as though the European Commission is getting a bit stricter in terms of getting these deals true. So do you still think that's the end game for consolidation.

Unknown Executive: And then secondly, on capacity constraints, which has been an issue we've talked about a few times, is it still the case that you think this will go on for a couple of years? I noticed you mentioned that obviously delivery is from Boeing, the quality is improving, the speed doesn't seem to be improving, and the GTF issue is still in the background. So will it still be there for two to three years? Two good points, Dudley.

And then secondly on capacity constraint, which has been an issue we've talked about a few times is it still the case or do you think this goes on for a couple of years I noticed you mentioned that obviously the deliveries from Boeing the quality is improving the speed doesn't seem to be improving in the GTS issue is still in the background. So will it still be there for two to three years.

Unknown Executive: Firstly, on consolidation, and then I'll ask Eddie or Julius to come in on this. Look, I mean, I think the EU Commission is, you know, as usual, getting it wrong. And, you know, consolidation does need to take place. You know, what would happen if Lufthansa was not allowed to buy Alitalia? What happens to Alitalia? It either goes bust, which is politically, you know, unattractive in Italy, or the Italian taxpayer keeps massively funding it, keeping it alive with illegal state aid.

Speaker Change: Yeah, two good points, firstly on consolidation and then.

Speaker Change: Hey, Judy.

Speaker Change: Judy it's also that there could be another.

Speaker Change: I think the EU Commission.

Speaker Change: As usual a getting it wrong.

Speaker Change: Consolidation does need to take place.

Speaker Change: What happens is if look back was not allowed to buy alitalia, what happens to Alitalia, if I had to go bust, which is politically.

Speaker Change: Oh unattractive in Italy, or detracting taxpayer keeps massively funding alitalia keep even like with illegal state aid.

Speaker Change: Europe does need to accept that there has to be consolidation what happens to air Europa. If IAG are not allowed to buy at a minute gained it it goes both.

Unknown Executive: Europe does need to accept that there has to be consolidation. What happens to Air Europa if IAG is not allowed to buy it? I mean, again, it goes bust. We've seen that mistake where JetBlue was not allowed to buy Spirit, and Spirit is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. So Europe needs to have a better kind of strategic focus on what it wants for this airline. We need low-cost air travel across Europe. If you're going to have integration, you're going to have freedom of movement, particularly from the peripheral states to the center. But the center also needs to be, you know, have some kind of rational strategy here.

Speaker Change: We've seen that in the states, where jetblue was not allowed to buy spirit and spares is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. So Europe need to have a better kind of strategic focus on what it wants. So this airline we need low fare air travel across Europe, if you're going to have a integration you're going to have freedom of movement, particularly from the proof.

Speaker Change: The states to the center and the center also needs to be.

Unknown Executive: We think they should be encouraging that consolidation, but then it should be encouraged with appropriate soft remedies. The way to fix this, if you're concerned about consolidation into a monopoly in places like Malpensa or in Madrid, is to give diverse slots and diverse slots to competitors who can maintain and sustain those operations. Don't do what they did in Lisbon, which was to give slots from TAP to EasyJet, and EasyJet barely used half of those slots during the winter period, which is where Reiner would have used up all of those slots during the winter period. So I think the EU Commission needs to have a longer-term vision for air travel in Europe. The European, the single market, vitally depends on low-cost air travel.

Speaker Change: Not some kind of rational.

Speaker Change: Strategy here.

Speaker Change: We think they should be encouraging that consolidation, but then it should be encouraged with appropriate soft remedies waken fixed days, if you're concerned about consolidation to monopoly in places like my parents are in Madrid.

Diverse swath of diverse slot to competitors, who can maintain and sustain those operation.

Speaker Change: I will do what they need in Lisbon, which was to give slopped thrombin ta to easy jet and easy cash is better to use top of those slops during the winter period, which is where ryanair would if you do all of those soft during the winter period.

Speaker Change: I think the EU commission needs to have a longer term vision for air travel in Europe the European.

Unknown Executive: And the only way that's going to be sustained is with, I think, a smaller number of larger, more sustainable carriers. In my personal view, it's going to be four large airline groups. I don't see any of the others surviving as large independent carriers, either because they can't compete with the legacies, with the hubs, and with the connecting traffic, or they can't compete with Reiner on the low cost point to point pricing side. Capacity constraints, I can't see any way it doesn't continue for the next couple of years. There are three key elements here.

Speaker Change: Market Viking dependents on low cost air travel and the only way that's going to be sustained this with I think some a smaller number of larger more sustainable carriers in my personal view is going to be for large airline groups I don't see any of the others.

Speaker Change: Giving us a large independent carrier either because they can't compete with the legacies, but with the hubs and the with the connecting traffic are they can't compete with Ryanair on the low cost point to point.

Speaker Change: <unk> site and capacity constraint I cannot see any way it doesn't continue for the next couple of years. There are three key elements here one there's been a huge shakeout of capacity during COVID-19 that capacity is not coming back.

Unknown Executive: One, there's been a huge shakeout of capacity during COVID, and that capacity is not coming back. Two, the manufacturers are hugely challenged for the next five years, from 2024 out to 2030, just delivering on their existing commitment. And there's a huge number of unfulfilled orders still out there from Turkish, Middle Eastern, Asian, and Chinese carriers. And with the constraints of the supply chain, there's no way that those companies, I think that they will be able to meet their own step up in monthly manufacturing. They're going to be challenged for the next three, four, or five years.

Speaker Change: The manufacturers are hugely challenge for the next five years from 'twenty to 'twenty four out to 2030, just delivering added there under existing commitments and there's a huge number of unfulfilled orders sit out there from Turkish middle Eastern carriers at Asian, and Chinese carriers.

Speaker Change: And with the constraints in the supply chain, there's no way that those that that I think that they would be able to meet their own at a.

Speaker Change: Step up in monthly it man.

Speaker Change: Are you factoring theyre going to be challenged for the next 345 years, and then you add to that the ETF issuers on the engines.

Unknown Executive: And then you add to that the ETF issues on the part of the engines. We've seen optimistic stuff. 20% of the fleet is going to be grounded. I think it's going to be for the next two, three summers, which is not going to be a quick fix. The original forecast of 300, 350 days for the engine repairs has already moved out towards 450, 500 days.

You've seen the optimistic stuff that would be 20% of the fleet is going to be grounded I think it's going to be for the next two or three summers, which is not going to be a quick fix and the original forecast of 300 350 days for the engine repairs have already moved out towards 400 5500 days.

Speaker Change: There's huge challenges on the engine maintenance side.

Speaker Change: Our supply chains and on engine shocked and Theres no way that being accelerated so.

Unknown Executive: There are huge challenges with engine maintenance, and I think it is inevitable that for the next three, or two or three summers, at least 25, 24, 25, 26, the capacity across Europe is going to be meaningfully constrained. Also, remember in Ryanair's case this year, we're only going to have 30 of our 59, 40 of our, 30, 30 of our, 40 of our 59 aircraft deliveries. We hope to pick that up next year when we will take another 29 aircraft, we hope, and the backlog of the 20 were short this year, we might have 59 aircraft for summer 2025. Then we have essentially no growth for summer 26, and no growth for summer 27.

Speaker Change: I think it is inevitable that for the next three or two or three silvers at least 'twenty five 'twenty four 'twenty five 'twenty six property across Europe is going to be meaningfully constrained.

Speaker Change: If you remember in Ryanair is Kate this year, we're really going to have 30 of our IP.

Speaker Change: 59, <unk> 40 of our sorry, 30 of a peak or do you have our 59 aircraft deliveries.

Speaker Change: We hope to pick that up next year, when we will we take another 29 aircraft, we hope and the backlog of the trains you were short tissue. We might've 59 aircraft for summer 2025, then we have essentially no road for so much when he takes a no growth for silver 27, So we will be.

Unknown Executive: So we would be, you know, a key player in that kind of capacity constraint for the next two or three summers as well. I think they'd be disappointed at the moment with the investors who always want to see upside. Oh, the pricing is a little bit softer; what's going wrong? The model is broken.

Speaker Change: A key player in that kind of capacity constrained for the next two or three summers as well.

Speaker Change: And I think there'd be disappointed at the moment with the investors, who always wanted to see upside to the pricing gets a little bit softer what's going wrong. The mountain broken are weighing on prices rising we've got two years of very strong pricing growth, we're taking much more modest pricing growth later this summer and if that's some degree of consumer assistance are we need to incentivize consumers drive.

Unknown Executive: Why aren't prices rising? We've had two years of very strong price growth. We're seeing much more modest price growth into this summer. And if that's some degree of consumer resistance, or we need to incentivize consumers to travel, go for it.

Speaker Change: So be it but for the next two or three summer capacity is going to be remained constrained nobody can add that meaningful capacity in Europe all of that the ryanair deliveries.

Unknown Executive: But for the next two or three summers, capacity is going to remain constrained. I don't think we can add that much meaningful capacity in Europe, other than Ryanair deliveries. And I think pricing is going to be, you know, flat to slightly higher for the next two or three summers, which should feed well into the Ryanair model where our unit costs are rising at a much lower rate than competitors, and prices will rise. Good question, Maxine. The next question comes from Jarrod Castle from UBS. Please go ahead, Jarrod, your line is now open. Jarrod, go ahead.

Speaker Change: And I think pricing is going to be flattish.

Speaker Change: Flat to slightly up for the next two or three summers, but should feed well into the Ryanair model, where our unit costs are rising at a much lower rate than competitors in prices with it right.

Speaker Change: Question Mickey.

Unknown Executive: Unfortunately, we're not getting audio from Jarrod's line, so we'll move over to the next question. The next question comes from Stephen Furlong from Davie. Please go ahead, Stephen. Your line is now David. Yeah, hi, Michael.

Speaker Change: The next question comes from John Costello from UBS. Please go ahead.

Jarrod: Jarrod Hi.

Jarrod: Yes.

Speaker Change: John go ahead.

Speaker Change: Unfortunately, we are not just from top lines for maintenance.

Speaker Change: Next question.

Speaker Change: Comes from Stephen furlong.

David: Perhaps Stephen your line is now David.

Speaker Change: Yes.

Michael: Yeah, Hi, Michael.

Michael: Can you talk a bit about the otas deals I'm thinking that.

Unknown Executive: Can you talk a bit about the OTA deals? I'm thinking that, you know, as we look beyond the summer into the first portion of... (inaudible) I know some things aren't in their control, but are you happy to see them acquire their Spirit Aero systems and to see any sign that... Will there be any issues or delays with the Max 10 certification, or is it still all up in the air? Thank you. And yet, they seem to turn a blind eye to these guys.

Michael: As we look beyond the summer and into the first ports.

Speaker Change: A winter the kind of Christmas period was hit last year. So maybe it's something that will help you as they all those deals are beds might talk about that and then the second thing just on Boeing.

Speaker Change: I know some things aren't in their control.

Speaker Change: Are you happy to see them acquire their spirit, aerosystems and and to see any signs that.

Speaker Change: There will be any issues or delays with the Max 10 certification or is it still all up in the air.

Steven: Thanks Steven.

Speaker Change: I think the Otas, we thought the O T. A pirate as far as 10 years now you know we have a we still find it astonishing that the consumer agencies.

Speaker Change: European Commission allow these guys to illegally engaging digital piracy by illegally screen scraping Ryanair its inventory and then turnaround and inflate those air fares and ancillary services and Duke consumers.

Speaker Change: If you are not if we are in are there any other I did this they'd be counted if I could kind of break and yet they can be turned a blind eye to these guys.

Unknown Executive: They seem to accept the value and are duped into believing that there's some kind of honest price comparison website when they're not. They have been scamming and overcharging consumers for years now. It seems, though, we brought that case ahead in December. I think gradually, as we have moved to more sophisticated payments and payment protection for consumers, it's harder for these guys to pass themselves off as Ryanair. I'm not sure that the OTAs have that many volumes, but that's their view. That's their point of view.

Speaker Change: They seem to be to have accepted.

Speaker Change: Our tubes are into believing that there is some kind of honest price comparison websites when theyre not they have been scamming, an overcharge consumers three years now and it.

It seems though we brought that came to a head in December I think gradually as we have moved to more sophisticated payments had payment protection for consumers. It's harder for these guys to five from first off with Ryanair.

Speaker Change: Good news now is we have signed up I would say a 10 of our 11.

Speaker Change: Largest otas.

Speaker Change: Our bodies are signed up to our approved <unk>.

Speaker Change: Distributions are already in the process of agreeing those deals are the only one who stands out there is still E dreams, which is a total scam still taking a passing themselves off right passing off Ryanair airfares that massively inflated.

Speaker Change: Overcharges, both on the underlying airfares and all the ancillary fees. They've also start this E dreams Prime scam, where they guarantee discounts on 100% of flight on 100% of flight, but what they do is they take a ryanair 50 euros.

Speaker Change: Pass it off to their E Dream Prime members as an easy Euro airfare.

Speaker Change: Just coming back to 50 455 euros.

Speaker Change: It is a complete and utter scammed.

Speaker Change: Prime members shouldn't pay the 65 euros and by the way what are your dreams than do it they don't even allowed to consumers.

Speaker Change: They roll it over into year, two or year three to increase the cost.

Speaker Change: You're getting no value whatsoever, no discounts when you're booking ryanair flights with E dreams and they are also being scammed.

David: David ancillary services, such as priority boarding, but all of the others are key we love holidays.

Speaker Change: Some of the bigger HIV AIDS travel fusion nature valley or all of all signed absolutely and the good thing about <unk> is there's one it guarantees the consumer price transparency, you're already paying the published Friday Affairs, who youre already pegged around the published Ryanair ancillary prices.

Speaker Change: The Otas may charge, you, a small or modest separate fee, but at least you know what your P. O T a.

Speaker Change: Much of paint to Ryanair and reading that transparency is Viking for that purpose.

Speaker Change: Protecting consumers the good news from runners point of view as we also get the they they agreed that we get the payment details and the <unk> in the.

Speaker Change: Passenger contact details as well so if we have to send you.

Speaker Change: Pre flight information or disruption information or appreciate your changing relationship go straight to your email not in the case of E Dreams, where we still get fake email addresses our fake payment details.

Speaker Change: That communication with the passengers gets off.

Speaker Change: There was no doubt that they.

Speaker Change: Otas taken this I'll say that December did H close in bookings at Q3, and certainly into Q4 and there's a few among the commercial team, although I don't subscribe to it that suddenly got Otas disputes is impacting our Q1 bookings that we would acquire more family or later holiday bookings I'm not sure that the otas at that much volume.

Unknown Executive: I think the underlying softness in pricing at the moment is just that there's a bit of consumer resistance out there, and consumer spending is generally challenged across most sectors in Europe at the moment. And if it needs stimulation, it needs stimulation.

Speaker Change: But.

Speaker Change: Is there a view that their view I think the underlying softness in pricing at the moment. It's just there's a bit of consumer resistance out there and consumer spending is generally challenged across most sectors in Europe at the moment doesn't need stimulation niche stimulation.

Speaker Change: But I think we would probably be helped in Q3 and Q4 next year, but we would need that because we won't have the first half of Easter in Q4 of FY 'twenty five.

Speaker Change: The Boeing.

Speaker Change: Spirit acquisition make much difference one way or the other like Boeing has you know whether it's paired with a kind of an approved supplier or a subsidiary of boy, what's crazy good at Bouygues, we need data.

Speaker Change: On the job management Agency Atlantic Wichita, We have certainly seen an improvement in the quality of the fuselage is being moved from spirit to Wichita after about a two month gap.

Speaker Change: What's being moved to Seattle at the moment is undoubtedly they're not carrying forward defects on fusion actually but you have to be repaired at Seattle.

Unknown Executive: But I think we will probably be helped in Q3 and Q4 next year. But we will need that help because we won't have the first half of Easter in Q4 of FY25. However, that hasn't yet speeded up the turnaround of the planes in Seattle. You know, they should be turning around those fuselages in about eight or nine weeks. We're still seeing turnarounds in 12-14 weeks. But we think Stephanie Pope and the team in Seattle are doing a much better job.

Speaker Change: Wherever that hasn't yet speeded up the turnaround at the planes in Seattle, you know they should be turning around those fuselages at about eight or nine weeks, we're seeing turnaround patent at 12 or 14 weeks and we think Stephanie posed by the team in Seattle or doing a much better job good thing, but definitely she's there she's on the ground, there's a daily weekly briefing.

Unknown Executive: The good thing with Stephanie, she's there, she's on the ground, there are the daily and weekly briefings, and I think they're getting it. We have seen recently, for the first time, a little bit of a pull-forward of aircraft deliveries. We originally thought we'd only get three aircraft in July, but it now looks like we'll get seven. We get 10 aircraft deliveries in August, but that's too late. Deliveries in August are of no use to us; we've missed the summer peak.

Speaker Change: <unk> I think they are getting at we have seen recently for the first time, a little bit of a pull forward of aircraft deliveries. We originally called I'm already getting three aircraft in July it now looks like we will get seven.

Speaker Change: We get 10 aircraft deliveries in August, but that's too late deliveries in August I know used to as we Miss the summer peak, but we keep taking those deliveries through July August September October November So I'm now reasonably confident we'll get all of those 59 aircraft before the end of calendar 2024.

Unknown Executive: But we keep taking those deliveries through July, August, September, October, November, so that I'm now reasonably confident we get all of those 59 aircraft before the end of calendar 2024. And that then we move on immediately to, well, now our 29 aircraft were due to get from January to April of 2025. I think there's a risk of some slippage there.

Speaker Change: Then we move on immediately to well now are 29 aircraft for you to get from January to April 25, I think there's a risk of some slippage there.

Unknown Executive: We will be insisting, and are hoping to get aircraft, if we can get all 29 aircraft between January and June of 2025, we'll be in reasonably good shape for summer 2025. And then, just to touch briefly, there has been some slippage on the MAX 7 certification, so I think it's now moved from the back end of 24 into the, I would hope, first half of FY25.

Speaker Change: We'll be investing are hoping to get aircraft. If we can get all 29 aircraft between January and June 2025, we'd be in reasonably good shape out for some of our 2025.

Speaker Change: And then just to touch briefly there has been some slippage on the Max seven certification I think it's now moved from the back end of 'twenty four into the I would hope the first half of FY 'twenty five.

Unknown Executive: That probably means that MAX 10 has slipped a little bit to the middle end of 2025. They will miss, in my view, some of their lead for the first deliveries of the MAX 10 in the summer of 2025 to American carriers. But we don't think at this stage it will delay our deliveries for our first 17 deliveries that are in the spring of 2027. But you know, there's a risk that some of those might get hit.

Speaker Change: Probably means that notwithstanding that slipped a little bit to the middle of the end of 2025.

Speaker Change: It will miss and might use some of their other lead the first deliveries of the Max 10 in somewhere between 25 to the American carriers.

Speaker Change: But we don't think at this stage it will delay our delivery in our first 17 deliveries already the spring of 2027, but you know.

Speaker Change: There's a risk that some of those might get a.

Unknown Executive: It won't fundamentally alter our, you know, growth prospects for summer 2027, but we would like to see Stephanie Pope and the team in Seattle continue the good work they've done recently on improving quality. Now let's improve and accelerate delivery. Now let's catch up on the backlogs and make sure that Max 7 certification happens in the first half of 2025, and Max 10 in the second half of 2025. And if they can get there and there are no other unforeseen events, then I think we would be reasonably confident that we'll get the Max 10s in time for summer 2027. Stepping back one from that, and I think just as important here, Boeing is still making great aircraft. Like, they have received an unbelievable amount of unfair publicity recently.

Speaker Change: Fundamentally alter our world's prompts Nighthawk summer 'twenty 'twenty, seven, but we would like to see.

Stephanie Pope: Stephanie posed by the team in Seattle continue the good work they've done recently on improving quality now, let's improve and accelerate deliveries now I'd have to catch up the backlogs and make sure that the Max seven certification out within the first half of 'twenty five Max 10 in the second half of 'twenty five.

Stephanie Pope: If they can get there and there is no other unforeseen with that then I think we would be reasonably yeah.

Stephanie Pope: Confident that we'll get the mic.

Stephanie Pope: Plans are in time for summer 'twenty seven.

Stephanie Pope: Stepping back from that and I think just as important here Boeing are still making great aircraft like they have shipped that I don't believe that amount of unfair publicity recently every time, there's a maintenance defect in those weird falls off and are kind of the aircraft and engine.

It comes off with southwest aircraft. So they're not it's all reported is always second half Boeing aircraft.

Stephanie Pope: They choose but air Canada, and southwest Theyre, not at Boeing or issues.

Unknown Executive: The game changers that we now have, about 160 of them in the fleet this summer, are flying really well for us, huge customer approval, very quiet experience in flight, huge fuel savings, they are delivering 16% less fuel and carrying 4% more passengers. These aircraft are transformational for Ryanair's cost base for the next few years, I think they will enable us to carry far more passengers, but at a significantly lower fuel cost per passenger, and also significantly less So much lower cost, much more fuel efficient, and better for the environment as well.

Stephanie Pope: The game changers that we now have about 150 of them and defeat this summer are flying really well for us.

Stephanie Pope: Customer approval very quiet in experience in flight huge fuel savings have been delivering 16% last few and carrying 4% more passengers. These aircrafts are transformational for Ryanair is cost base for the next.

Stephanie Pope: A decade.

Stephanie Pope: And I think we will enable us to carry rahmbo passengers, but at significantly lower fuel cost per passenger and also significantly less admission C O two emissions as well so.

Stephanie Pope: Much lower cost much more fuel efficient and patents at the environment as well so we take the go and keep up the good work.

Unknown Executive: So we tend to go and keep up the good work. We will be asked who we think should take over at Boeing. We don't care, as long as it doesn't affect the good work that Stephanie Pope and the team are doing in Seattle. We do not want any disruptions in Seattle.

Stephanie Pope: I will be asked or who we think should take over and boy, we don't care as long as it doesn't affect.

Stephanie Pope: The good work that separately both by the team are doing in Seattle, we do not want any disruption. The Atlas. We wanted all of Boeing and I think Dave Calhoun gets there I'm sorry to see him go at the end of the year.

Unknown Executive: We want all of Boeing, and I think Dave Calhoun will get this. I'm sorry to see him go at the end of the year, because I think somebody does need to run Boeing to allow the people in Seattle to focus on the deliveries and the quality of those deliveries. But we are very supportive of the good work that Stephanie Pope and the Seattle team are doing at the moment. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. The next question comes from Jaime Rowbotham from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead; your line is now open. Jaime, hi.

Stephanie Pope: Because I think you know if somebody goes needs around going to allow us to focus on the deliveries and the quality of those deliveries, but we are very supportive of the good work the Stephanie poke at the Seattle team are doing at the moment.

Speaker Change: Next question please.

Speaker Change: Thank you Bill next question comes from Jamie Labor from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is now Jamie Hi.

Jaime Bann Rowbotham: Hi Michael, two questions from me please. Firstly, the buyback running between now and November, would it be sensible for us to think of this as maybe a first tranche with the potential for you to maybe go again, depending on how the summer pans out, or does the one billion higher capex in fiscal 25 mean that's a lot less likely now? Second one, on cost, you've put the non-fuel cost commentary in with fuel to stay modestly higher overall on a per unit basis.

Jaime Bann Rowbotham: Hi, Michael two questions from me. Please firstly the bypass running between now and November would it be sensible to.

Jaime Bann Rowbotham: It's to think if there's just maybe a first tranche with the potential for you to maybe go again.

Jaime Bann Rowbotham: And depending on how some of pans out or does the 1 billion higher capex in fiscal 'twenty five I mean, that's a lot less likely now.

Jaime Bann Rowbotham: Second one.

Jaime Bann Rowbotham: On costs, you've put the non fuel cost commentary in with fuel to stay modestly up overall on a per unit basis, but if we don't pick the moving parts a bit focusing on the non fuel bit I feel like you're.

Jaime Bann Rowbotham: But if we unpick the moving parts a bit, focusing on the non-fuel bit, I feel like you're pushing us towards maybe a couple of euros again on Neil's metric of non-fuel cost per passenger, which would be mid to high single-digit inflation. And to be fair, that is a bit higher than what we hear some of your peers guiding, EasyJet guiding, I think, a low single-digit increase in non-fuel unit costs this summer. So perhaps you could just address the letter to, Thanks, Jaime.

Jaime Bann Rowbotham: Pushing us towards you know.

Speaker Change: Maybe a couple of euros again on neal's metric of non fuel cost per Pax.

Which would be mid to high single digit inflation.

Speaker Change: To be fair is it a bit higher than what we hear some of your peers guiding easy jet guiding I think low single digit increase in non fuel unit costs. This summer. So perhaps you could just address that in terms of the gap widening. Thanks.

Unknown Executive: A couple of... All I can say on buybacks is, you know, unlike most of our competitors, we are cash generative. We have, you know, we're paying down debt aggressively. In two years' time, we'll be zero debt.

Jaime Bann Rowbotham: Thanks, Jamie talking about you.

Speaker Change: All I can say on buybacks as you know we have unlike most of our competitors we are cash generative, but we have.

Paying down debt aggressively in two years' time will be zero day. All we have said is that as the board has a policy if we generate surplus cash firstly it'll be used to restore pay and put multiyear pay agreements in place for our people Secondly, we'll pay down debt aggressively.

Unknown Executive: All we have said is that at the board, at the policy, if we generate surplus cash, firstly, it will be used to restore pay and put multi-year pay agreements in place for our people. Secondly, we'll pay down debt aggressively as debt costs are rising in the current marketplace. And thirdly, it will be CapEx, but we know we're coming up to a kind of a two-year CapEx holiday. And if there's any spare cash or surplus cash, we are committed to continuing to return that to shareholders.

Speaker Change: That costs are rising in card and the card marketplace and thirdly, it would be capex, but we know we're coming up to a kind of a two year capex holiday and if there's any spare cash our surplus cash we ought to be able to continue to return that to shareholders.

Unknown Executive: We think $700 million now is appropriate. The board thinks that's appropriate between now and November. What they'll do after that will depend on what the cash position is after that, and I don't want to prejudge what the board will do. I mean, all I would remind you is there's a dividend payment coming in November.

Speaker Change: We think 700 million and now is appropriate and the board think that's appropriate.

Speaker Change: Between now and November what they do after that will depend on what the cash position is after that and I don't want to prejudge, what the board.

Speaker Change: What do I mean, all I would remind you is there's a dividend payments coming in November.

Unknown Executive: We have a share buyback this year, and I would point to, remember the board's commitment that, you know, we have a dividend policy that will return 25% of after-tax profits, currently $1.93 billion. That's about $480 million in calendar year 2025. So I think the board is more than living up to its commitment that once we've addressed our people, our debt, and our CapEx, we're clearly returning surplus cash to the shareholders who supported us during COVID.

Speaker Change: We have a share buyback this year and I would point.

Speaker Change: Point to remember the board's commitment that we have a dividend policy that will retiring 25% of after tax profit at currently $1 93 billion, that's about $480 million.

In calendar year 2025, so I think the board is more than living up to its commitments and once we've addressed our people our debt and our Capex, where Kennedy returning surplus cash to the shareholders, who supported us during COVID-19.

Unknown Executive: Neil, maybe I can give more color on the costs, but give me a couple of, just the one issue I would point you here is, yes, our unit costs are rising slightly. Labor is a driver of that, but our unit cost growth off a much lower base than many of our competitors is going to be less than some of our competitors. We've seen, for example, you mentioned EasyJet. I mean, you know, their pilots have recently rejected a 20% pay increase and are threatening strikes through this summer. And EasyJet does not have a great record of standing up to the unions when they're threatened with strikes.

Speaker Change: Yeah.

Speaker Change: But give us more color on the cockpit give me a couple that with just the one issue I would point you hear US yes. Our unit costs are rising slightly neighbor is a driver of that and but our unit cost growth off a much lower pace than many of our competitors is going to be less than some of our competitors. We've seen for example, you mentioned EZ kit.

Speaker Change: Theyre pilots recently rejected quite 2% pay increase.

Speaker Change: It strikes to me this summer.

Speaker Change: Is it easier to not have a great record of standing up to the unions. When they are threatened with strikes, but there is undoubtedly pay inflation running through the system.

Unknown Executive: But there is undoubtedly pay inflation running through the system. I think the fact that there is capacity stability in Europe is helpful from that point of view. We have very little pilot or cabin crew attrition at the moment. In fact, if anything, we're slightly overcrewed this summer because we've crewed up for all of the Boeing deliveries and we're not going to; they're going to leave us about 20 aircraft short. If you look across North America, some of the deals that have been done with the pilots and crews across North American airlines, you know, it's off the charts.

Speaker Change: I think the fact that there's capacity stability in Europe is helpful from that point of view, we have very little pilots or cabin crew cabin crew attrition at the moment in fact, if anything we're taking over crude this somewhere because we crewed up where all of the Boeing deliveries and we're not going to leave us about 20 aircraft short.

Speaker Change: Across North America, and what some of the deals that have been done with the pilots and crews across the North American Airlines.

Speaker Change: It's off the charts.

Unknown Executive: In Europe, there is no doubt that our, you know, we continue to ask our pilots, our camcorder engineers to perform efficiently. They deliver the best service to any airline in Europe. They're also delivering the most efficient turnarounds.

Speaker Change: In Europe, there is no doubt that our eye and you know a.

Speaker Change: We continue to ask our pilots our camcorder our engineers.

Speaker Change: To outperform.

Speaker Change: Efficiently and deliver the best service about a year that Europe and Theyre also to deliver the most efficient turnarounds and you know.

Unknown Executive: And, you know, it is only fair, I think, that we share some of the upside with our crews in the form of multi-year pay agreements. And if we have to respond in that marketplace to be competitive on pay, then we will continue to do so. And, you know, but it will be, and our increase in cost or cost inflation this year will be significantly lower than any other airline in Europe, including some of the ones you've mentioned, Jamie.

Speaker Change: It is only fair I think that we share some of the upside with our crews in the fall, but multiyear pay agreement and if we have to add it.

Speaker Change: Bond in that marketplace to be competitive on pay and then we will continue to do so.

Speaker Change: But here's where we and our increase in costs our cost inflation. This year will be significantly lower than any other airline in Europe, including some of the ones you've mentioned JV.

Speaker Change: Was that anything on the unit cost outlook.

Unknown Executive: I mean, I think that the key here is that we're, you know, we're well-hedged into next year. As you indicated, Michael, however, we are carrying extra crew this summer due to the Boeing delivery delays. The final outcome on cost per pack will ultimately depend on whether we come in with 198 million passengers or 200 million passengers, but net-net on a total cost basis. We're broadly flat to margin.

Speaker Change: Well I mean, I think that the key here is that where we are.

Mike: Well hedged into into next year as you indicated Mike whoever we are carrying extra crews as someone who uses a boeing delivery delays. The final outcome on cost per Pax will really depend on whether we come in with 198 million passengers or 200 million passengers, but net net on the total cost base.

Unknown Executive: It's important to factor in the fuel savings that we're getting on the game changers. It's important to factor in the hedging impact that we have. And the non-fuel stuff is annualization of pay increases that we gave last year, extra crew that we're carrying, and some additional engineering and handling costs. So nothing significant is coming through here.

Mike: We're broadly flat to March forward and to factor in the fuel savings that we're getting on the game changers, it's important factor in and the hedging impact that we have on the non fuel so as annualized Asian of pay increases that we gave last year extra crew that we're carrying in and some additional engineering.

Handling costs, so nothing significant coming through here and as I said broadly flat on the total cost basis on the year.

Unknown Executive: And, as I said, broadly flat on a total cost basis for the year. I would just point out that our fuel hedging position is a benefit, but again, if you look at the numbers that were produced recently by EasyJet, I think they were about 42-43% hedged out to March 2025 at about $83 a barrel. We're at 71-72% hedged at $79 a barrel, and in fact, we're now 10% hedged for FY26 at $79 a barrel. So don't just dismiss the fuel savings.

Mike: And I would just point to you know our fuel hedging position is you know.

Mike: He is a benefit.

Mike: Yeah.

Speaker Change: Can you look at the numbers that were produced recently by weight by easy jet I think they were about 40% to 43% hedged out to March 2025 at about $83. A barrel. We were at 70, 172% hedged at $79 a barrel and in fact, we're now 10% hedged for FY 'twenty six to $79 a barrel. So don't just dismiss the.

Speaker Change: Your savings, it's all part of the same envelope.

Unknown Executive: It's all part of the same envelope, and while yes, I think there will be modest unit cost inflation excluding fuel, that will be more, I think, than picked up over the next year or two on if capacity is constrained and modest fare increases over the next couple of summers in Europe. Thank you.

Speaker Change: Yes, I think that will it be modest unit cost inflation excluding fuel.

Speaker Change: But that.

Speaker Change: That would be more I think doesn't get picked up over the next year or two on pacifico.

Speaker Change: Pacifico strained modest favorite increases over the next couple of summers in Europe.

Speaker Change: Thanks, Hey, guys question might be.

Alexander Irving: The next question comes from Alex Irving from Bernstein. Please go ahead, Alex, your line is now open. Hi, morning guys. So, two for me, please.

Keith: Keith I know this question comes from Alex <unk>.

Speaker Change: Please go ahead I'm sorry.

Unknown Executive: First of all, back on fair expectation and the change there, my question is more geographic. Has it been specifically worse than expected in the markets where your competition is more GTF heavy, or is it more of a widespread phenomenon? The second question is on load factors.

Speaker Change: So excuse me. Please first of all welcome sort of expectation on the change.

Speaker Change: My question was more geographic what's been specifically worse than expected in the markets, where the competition is more GPS or it was more of a widespread phenomenon.

Unknown Executive: Before the pandemic, e-speeds of 96% every single quarter, summer and winter, didn't matter. Having been back there since, is that a conscious decision if you're trying to maximize the total revenue of the passenger rather than just load factor optimized, or is there something else behind that? Okay, you broke up slightly during the first one, but I mean, correct me if I'm wrong, I think the question is, is the fare weakness kind of across the board, or are there particular geographies where the fare weakness is? Is that the question? Yeah, that's right.

Speaker Change: Second question is on the low.

Speaker Change: Florida.

Speaker Change: 96% every single quarter of summer winter.

Speaker Change: Hasn't been backwards since is that a conscious decision because you're trying to maximize total revenue.

Speaker Change: And then just moved faster up tonight or something else behind that please.

Speaker Change: Okay I you broke up slightly during the first one but I mean, if I correct me if I'm wrong. I think the question is is that the fare weakness kind of across the board or is there particular geographies that were just fare weakness is that the question.

Unknown Executive: Specifically, is there more weakness in the GTF-heavy markets, Spain, the Central East, and Europe? What's a GPS-heavy market? Markets where you have competitors with GTF engines that can't use their planes, so I think that's more widespread in those markets.

Speaker Change: Yeah, that's right I mean is it is it more weakness in the GTS heavy markets, Spain central and Eastern Europe.

Speaker Change: And what's the GPS type markets.

Speaker Change: In the markets, where you have competitors with GTS engines used airplanes. So that's being bulk sorry, okay more widespread in those markets.

Unknown Executive: No, I mean, what we think, and I'll ask maybe Eddie and Jason McGuinness to give some flavor of it. I mean, it's generally across the piece, you know, April has been weak, May, June has been weak, and more of the weakness is on the leisure routes, which is why, you know, Honestly, we're not quite sure why there's that weakness, but we think it's a combination of some underlying impact of the OTA kind of lockout, where people would have been booking some kind of leisure packages in those markets, maybe during April, May and June.

Speaker Change: No I mean, well, what we think I don't know maybe.

Speaker Change: Maybe am Eddie adjacent begin to give some flavor of it I mean, its generally across the piece you know April has been weak and May June has been weak and more of the weakness is on the leg is on the leisure routes, which is why you know.

Speaker Change: Honestly, we're not quite sure why does that weakness, but we think it's a combination of some underlying impact of the O T a kind of lockout wherever.

Speaker Change: People would've been booking some kind of leisure packages in those markets may be during April may and June and but more generally speaking broadly a bit of consumer resistance to the pace of lack of consumer spending and youll see that across most markets.

Unknown Executive: But more generally speaking, broadly, a bit of consumer resistance, and there's a bit of a lack of consumer spending, and you see that across most markets. I think that does benefit the Ryanair model, where we have lower fares than anybody else. And we've seen that in recent weeks as we engage in reasonably modest price stimulation. We've done some $14.99 and $12.99 seed sales, 20% off, and that has boosted capacity significantly. The market is responding strongly whenever there's any little bit of price stimulation. I would describe it as widespread, rather than in particular geographies.

Speaker Change: That does benefit the Ryanair model, where we have lower fares.

Speaker Change: Than anybody else that we've seen that in recent weeks as we engage it reasonably modest price stimulation like we've done some $14 99, and 12 99 seat says 20% off that has boosted.

Speaker Change: <unk> significantly.

People are that the market is responding strongly whenever there's any little bit of a price stimulation, but I wouldn't describe it as widespread rather that particular geographies.

Speaker Change: There were strong if there was one area, where I think we are a little bit stronger.

Unknown Executive: If there was one area where I think we are a little bit stronger, it is probably in those Central and Eastern European markets where WIZ is grounding a significant number of aircraft. We're growing strongly into what were previously WIZ markets in Albania has been very strong; Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland; they tend to be small and reasonably priced. We generally tend not to notice Wings much in most markets because they generally price significantly higher than us, but it does seem to us that Wings have taken a conscious decision where they're grounding aircraft; they're grounding aircraft across Europe rather than in their Middle East market.

Speaker Change: Probably not so central eastern European markets, where wages are rounding a significant number of aircraft that we're growing strongly it to what were previously with market data Albania had been very strong.

Speaker Change: Romania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland, they tend to be smaller reasonably weak, but we're growing strongly in Poland as well.

Speaker Change: We generally changes not just noticed with March at both markets because they generally.

Speaker Change: Pricing in the higher dose, but it does seem to offset wins have taken a conscious decision where we're at.

Speaker Change: Theyre grounding aircrafts theyre grounding aircraft across.

Speaker Change: Europe, rather than their middle east markets. They do seem to be trying to protect her maintained whatever capacity of growth. They have in those middle eastern market. So we've seen that the change to retreat from market stayed in that.

Unknown Executive: They do seem to be trying to protect or maintain whatever capacity or growth they have in those Middle Eastern markets. And we've seen them continue to retreat from markets in Italy and Albania, the Central East and Europe, where they're unable to compete with us on costs. 96% low before the pandemic, yeah, I mean, I think we haven't consciously set ourselves a load factor.

Speaker Change: Italy.

Speaker Change: But albania central and eastern Europe, where they don't even compete with us on costs.

Speaker Change: 96% of all kind of before the pandemic yeah.

Speaker Change: Think we haven't consciously set ourselves a load factor, we're not country stepping down a little tighter, but we are totally in a marketplace post pandemic, where pricing is materially stronger and therefore, we are not seeing that kind of capacity growth pay a huge capacity growth rates across the market, where we're having to fight for every percentage of market share gains were.

Unknown Executive: We're not consciously stepping down the load factor, but we are undoubtedly in a marketplace post-pandemic where pricing is materially stronger, and therefore, we are not in that kind of capacity growth phase, huge capacity growth phase across the market where we're having to fight for every percentage of market share gains. It does feel to us that, you know, I mean, we've set the budget load factor for this year at about 94%. That's a percentage point or two below pre-pandemic 96%.

Taking huge market share gains and also seeing modest fare increases.

Speaker Change: Well you know I mean, we've set the.

Speaker Change: The budget load factor for this year is the same as last year at about 94%.

Speaker Change: As a percentage to a point or two below 90, a pre pandemic, 96% I think that's because pre pandemic underlying airfares were 50, 60% lower than they are today and we were still fight you would love to have other airlines that were adding capacity our airlines.

Unknown Executive: I think that's because, pre-pandemic, airfares were 50-60% lower than they are today, and we were still fighting with lots of other airlines that were adding capacity or airlines like ATA and TAP in Portugal who were operating twice the fleets they are today and losing money hand over fist. And so there hasn't been any great conscious decision.

Speaker Change: In THP adults, who are operating twice the fleets. They are to date I'm, losing money hand over fist.

Unknown Executive: I think it's just a 94% load factor is a reflection of the fact that we're operating in a market where post-COVID fares are higher, demand is stronger, but we're not trying to thrash our own yields to win market share. We're winning huge amounts of market share at modestly higher airfares than last year, and they're never going to be higher than pre-COVID. Eddie and Jason, it might be helpful if you could add by way of color on affairs by market or, generally, what's your analysis of why the affairs are a little bit weaker than we thought they'd be? Yeah, and sorry Michael, I might just let Jason go for a second.

So there hasn't been any great conscious decision I think it just.

Speaker Change: 94% load factor is a reflection of the fact that we're operating in a market where post COVID-19 parents or higher demand is stronger and but we're not trying to fresh our old years to win market share, we need huge amounts of market share, but at modestly higher airfares.

Speaker Change: Modestly higher person last year and significantly higher air fares that pre COVID-19.

Speaker Change: And the adjacent might be helping or is there anything you want to add color on our prayers.

Speaker Change: Market are generally what's your analysis of why it appears a little bit weaker than we thought they would be.

Unknown Executive: Yeah, I mean, I'd agree with what you say there, I mean, in terms of where WIS has pulled back in places like in Eastern Europe where we wouldn't have a strong presence like Ottapenny and Sofia and places like that, but just so that you know, the audience here understands when we're talking about OTAs as well. It's not like what happened before when OTAs prior to this when we were scraping could actually make up the fares or make up the antilleries, but when you go from screen scraping to an API, there's a lot of technical work or whatever that goes on on the OTA end to get the pipes fully sort of humming.

Speaker Change: Yeah, sorry, Michael as Mike just said, Jason and the second yes, I'd agree with but would you say there in terms of like where whereas has pulled back in places like eastern Europe, where we wouldn't have.

Strong presence like Oh, the Penny in Sofia and places like that but just know that.

Speaker Change: <unk>.

Speaker Change: The audience here I understand about when we're talking about otas as well.

What has happened is that when otas prior to this why we're scraping could could actually make looked affairs. Our makeup yet generate but when you. When you go from screen scraping to an API, there's a lot of technical work or whatever that goes on.

Speaker Change: The O T a M to get the pipe fully startup homing so.

Unknown Executive: So that has happened as we've signed up each of those OTAs, and you know, more of that should, I know you disagree with that, but more of that should come through the pipes as those APIs become more fluid. Jason, do you have it in there?

Speaker Change: So that has happened is we have signs of each of those otas and more of that should should I know you disagree with that was that more of that should come through the pipes.

Speaker Change: Also the Msos API has become more fluid.

Speaker Change: Do you have up there.

Unknown Executive: Yeah, the only thing I'd add is, as we covered already a little bit, Central and East Europe is very strong, like we consciously increased capacity on the labor piece out of Central and East Europe by 20-25% this summer, and it's absorbing very, very well. The five new bases are working very well, we consciously grew the Balkans, new bases in Dubrovnik, new routes in Sarajevo, and those are working Italy, very strong this summer, domestically in particular, where we've now almost completely pulled off, are very strong.

Yeah. The only thing I'd add is covered already a little bit central and eastern Europe. Its already strong like we consciously.

Speaker Change: Increased capacity on the labor piece, I would just central and eastern Europe by 20% to 25% this summer and that's absorbing it very very well.

Speaker Change: The five new bases are booking very well.

Speaker Change: We obviously grew the Balkans, new brace in Dubrovnik, new routes in Sarajevo, those are booking very well as well actually very strong this summer domestic and particularly where ways of now almost completely pulled off our very strong. So that part of the market is very strong the leisure piece and in western Europe, a little bit softer ferrous not inquiry.

Unknown Executive: So, that part of the market's very strong; the leisure piece in Western, yeah, a little bit softer, fares not increasing as quickly as I'd expect them to, but volumes are still strong on it, but a little bit of price stimulation needed, particularly on some of the midweek leisure. Okay, thanks Jason. Thanks Alex.

<unk> is quickly I'd expect it but volumes are still.

Speaker Change: Strong numbers, but a little bit of price stimulation needed, particularly on some of the mid week pleasure.

Speaker Change: Okay. Thanks, Alex next question please.

Unknown Executive: Next question, please. The next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead; your line is now open. Duane, hi.

Speaker Change: Your next question comes from Duane Arnold Glass from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead. Your line is now playing height.

Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth: Hey, good morning, Michael and team. Can you comment on how much of your passenger volume came from US consumers traveling around Europe last summer? And if you have a view on how that plays out this year, and then my follow-up question would be on the $450 million of savings you've called out year-to-year on fuel, what is that net of ETS? Does ETS offset some of that fuel savings?

Speaker Change: Hey, good morning, Michael and team.

Speaker Change: Can you comment on how much of your passenger volume came from U S consumers running around Europe last summer and if you have a view on how that plays out this year and then on my follow up would be on the.

Speaker Change: 450 million of savings you've called out year to year on fuel.

Speaker Change: What is that net of Etfs.

Speaker Change: Those etfs offset some of that fuel savings.

Unknown Executive: Okay, thanks, Duane. Both of those are above my pay grade, I'm afraid. I don't know whether any are changed. If you have any idea how much U.S. consumers make up of our traffic in Europe, and maybe Neil, I might ask you just to comment on how much of the $450,000 saving none of it is made up of, but what is it net of an ETF? Eddie and Chase, anything on U.S. consumers? Casey, go ahead. Blimey!

Speaker Change: Okay. Thanks, Duane both of those are above my pay grade I'm afraid I don't know whether any or changed if you have any idea of how much of your U S. Consumers makeup of our traffic in Europe and maybe Neil.

Neil: I might ask you just to comment on how the how much of the 450 million saving.

Speaker Change: None of it is made up of a but what does it nature of the ETF.

Speaker Change: Eddie adjacent anything on U S consumers.

Speaker Change #100: Jason go ahead.

Speaker Change #100: Yes.

Speaker Change #101: [laughter] Tiger.

Unknown Executive: I don't, I think we don't know. It's a relatively small number. Okay. All right. The answer is we don't know.

Speaker Change #101:

Speaker Change #102: We don't know.

Speaker Change #102: It's a very small number.

Unknown Executive: But the great luxury we have is that we don't tend to have to worry about the nationality of consumers. All we really worry about is that we're getting a 94% load factor and that they pay us well in advance of their departure. Very, very, very fair.

Speaker Change #102: Okay Alright. The answer is we don't know what the great luxury we have is we don't tend not to have to worry about other nationalities consumers. All we really worry about is if were getting a 94% load factor after they paid us well in advance of their departure.

Speaker Change #103: Very good.

Speaker Change #103: Yes.

Unknown Executive: Yeah, Duane, ETS is obviously becoming a bigger portion of our fuel bill as the free allowances unwind, so we will go from just under 700 million in the year just gone to just over 800 million, probably about 850 million in the next financial year. So that's all part of our overall fuel guide, but the 450 is based on our jet hedging and our dollar hedging at this point in time.

Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth: Yeah Duane.

Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth: Etfs is obviously, becoming a bigger portion of our fuel Bill is the free allowances on wine. So we will go from just under $700 million.

Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth: In the year, just gone to just over 800, probably about $850 million.

In the next financial year.

Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth: That's all part of our overall fuel guides.

Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth: The $4 50 is based on our jet hedging in our dollar hedging at this point in time.

Unknown Executive: Well, sorry for the U.S. curveball there, but I appreciate the thought. Thank you. And we welcome all U.S. passengers on board our aircraft wing, apart from those guys with the big heavy golf clubs.

Speaker Change #105: Got it will start sorry for the U S. A curve ball there, but I appreciate the thoughts. Thank you now.

Unknown Executive: But nevertheless, we're not too worried about nationality as long as we get paid. Next question, please, Maxine. The next question comes from Sathish Sivakumar from City. Please go ahead, your line is now open. Hi Michael. Yeah, I got two questions here. First, on the ancillaries.

Speaker Change #106: And we welcome all U S passengers onboard our aircraft way.

Speaker Change #107: For those guys, but the big heavy golf clubs, but nevertheless, we're not too worried about nationality as long as they get paid a.

Next question. Please Maxine.

The next question comes from the cities Sydney Kumar.

Speaker Change #108: Please go ahead Sir.

Sathish Babu Sivakumar: If you could just give me some color in the FY24, which part of the black ancillary performed well, and where do you see that trend into a 525 and the second one, maybe just for JSM actually. If I look at the... Demand-wise, how does the beach versus city, midweek versus weekend, like, trend? And where, like, in terms of pricing, the delta, like, is it material between, say, midweek and weekend and beach and city, or is it, like, just directionally the same across the board?

Sydney Kumar: I myself a call.

Speaker Change #110: Two questions here first just on the ancillary if you could just give some color.

Speaker Change #111: In FY 'twenty full that I missed part of the answer is.

Speaker Change #112: Performs and where do you see that trend into FY 'twenty five.

The second one maybe its just a juice and laterally.

Speaker Change #113: If you look at the.

Demand wise.

Speaker Change #113: The Beach city midfield close as beacon like trend.

Trending.

Speaker Change #113: In terms of pricing Delta, that's sort of like there was a material between say midweek and weekend and beach in the city or is it just.

Speaker Change #114: See them across the board, yes. Thank you.

Sathish Babu Sivakumar: Ancillaries will continue to fall a little bit ahead of scheduled traffic growth. Scheduled traffic growth last year was 8%, and ancillaries are up a couple of percentage points above that. We continue to work on penetration and conversion. The big ones are still the big ones, which is priority boarding, reserve seating, baggage fees, and we expect they'll continue to be. There's nothing new or radical that we see in ancillaries at the moment, but ancillaries continue to perform very strongly, and we would expect that to happen again next year. However, ancillary revenues will be a couple of percentage points ahead of scheduled traffic growth.

Speaker Change #115: Thanks to teach a we'd nothing remarkable on ancillary.

As we said at the last year and I think for next year I'm curious with continued upon them a little bit ahead of schedule traffic growth.

Speaker Change #115: Schedule traffic growth last year was 8% 10 series real quick couple of percentage points above that we continue to work on penetration.

Speaker Change #115: Conversion at the big ones are still the big ones, which is a priority boarding reserved seating.

Speaker Change #115: Our baggage fees and we expect they'll continue to me, there's nothing new a radical that we see in ancillary to the bold, but I've been reached before continue to perform.

Speaker Change #115: Very strongly.

Speaker Change #115: And we would expect that to recur again next year ancillary revenues would it be a couple of percentage points ahead of schedule and traffic growth.

Unknown Executive: Jason, call her on for yields, fares, and midweeks. Yeah, like, I'm not going to go into the difference between leisure and city, like, city is booking very, very well, volumes are strong. There's nothing really to call out in terms of the variations there between weekend and midweek. As I say, it is the leisure piece that is a little bit softer than we were expecting.

Speaker Change #116: Jason color on yields Theres mid weeks.

Unknown Executive: However, I have to reiterate, like, volumes are strong. And as you said earlier, Michael, it's responding where we need to stimulate. So strong volumes is the overall theme.

Speaker Change #117: Yeah, I'm not going to go into the difference on glad you're on Cision I'd like say, so you've spoken very very well strong volumes are strong.

Speaker Change #118: There's nothing really to call out in terms of the variations there between weekend.

Speaker Change #119: On mid week I'll, just say it is the laser piece stepped up is that a little bit softer than we were expecting however, I have to reiterate like volumes are strong.

Michael: Michael it's responding where we need to stimulate.

Michael: Volume was strong as the overall team.

Unknown Executive: Thanks. That's an existing question, Maxine. The next question comes from Jarrod Castle from UBS. Please go ahead, Jarrod, your line is now open. Great, good morning, take two.

Speaker Change #120: Yeah. Thanks, Sidney wish next question actually.

Speaker Change #121: Your next question comes from John Costello from UBS. Please go ahead John.

Speaker Change #120: Alright.

John Costello: Good morning take to Hum.

Jarrod Castle: Michael, you've obviously become quite a decent-sized facilitator to the package holiday providers on the beach and TUI and the rest. I mean, looking back, do you think it was a mistake not to undertake your own package holidays? You know, I know you did try and then you moved away from it. Any thoughts going forward?

John Costello: Michael.

Michael: Obviously become quite a decent size facilitates it to the package holiday providers on the beach and to me and the rest.

Speaker Change #123: I mean looking back do you think it was a mistake not to undertake your own package holidays.

Speaker Change #124: I know you just try and then you moved away from it.

Speaker Change #125: Any thoughts going forward is this the.

Unknown Executive: Let's say for you, future opportunity. And then just looking maybe a bit more at the fuel hedging, I mean, there's been a number of years where you're materially ahead of current levels of hedging, you know, 80, even as high as 90%, I think, for where you were in 2019. Is this just more an opportunistic approach in terms of taking advantage of the movements in the fuel price, or is this still very much a systematic approach?

Speaker Change #126: Future opportunity, let's say for Ya.

Speaker Change #126: And then just just looking them.

Speaker Change #126: Maybe a bit more at the field hedging I mean, there's there's been you know.

Speaker Change #126: Number of years, where you materially ahead of.

Current levels of hedging you know, even as high as 90% I think for.

Speaker Change #126: Where you were in 2019.

Speaker Change #127: Is this just more of an opportunistic approach in terms of.

Speaker Change #128: Taking advantage of the movements in the fuel price. So voice is still very much a systematic approach. Thanks.

Unknown Executive: Thanks. Douglas Goldstein, CFP®, is the director of Profile Investment Services and the host of the Goldstein on Gelt radio show. He is a licensed financial professional both in the U.S. and Israel. His book Building Wealth in Israel is available in bookstores, on the web, or can be ordered at www.profile-financial.com.

Speaker Change #129: Two things on that.

Speaker Change #130: So I believe are in the the package holiday business I know aegis.

Speaker Change #130: Or making some money in that business, but you need to mine.

Speaker Change #130: They are thinking they're just moving the yields from the underlying here and I need to a package holiday dressing or just trying to give you even if I consolidate business.

Speaker Change #130: And I think it's a distraction.

The package holiday business is where the money the future Le debate Thomas Cook.

Unknown Executive: Douglas Goldstein, CFP®, is the director of Profile Investment Services and the host of the Goldstein on Gelt radio show. He is a licensed financial professional in both the U.S. and Israel. He is a licensed financial professional in both the U.S. and Israel.

Speaker Change #130: And those that would still be the by far and away the biggest travel companies and theyre not.

Speaker Change #131: I see.

Speaker Change #131: I mean theres no doubt that if you can secure a lot of accommodation there's money to be made on the accommodation side, but I think increasingly with the internet does yoga consumers disintermediation.

Unknown Executive: His book Building Wealth in Israel is available in bookstores, on the web, or can be ordered. Now, are we leaving some money on the table for the OTAs? I think we probably are, and we're very happy to do so, but you know if we can work with the OTAs, and as I said, we've now signed up, or are about to sign up, 10 of our biggest 11. There's additional money for them to be made and getting direct access to Ryanair airfares without having to pay some intermediate screen scraper a fee, and we're undoubtedly either going to get higher airfares, or we're going to ensure that the consumers get access to Ryanair's real airfares.

Speaker Change #131: Accommodation are the aircrafts the accommodation that the flight and the transfers now.

Speaker Change #131: We leaving some money on the table for those at the Otas at the time I think we probably are but we're very happy to do so but if we can work with the Otas and I'll just say, we've now signed up or are about to sign up kind of the big biggest 11.

Speaker Change #131: There's additional money for them to be made and getting direct access to Ryanair Ryanair air periods without having to pay some intermediate screen scraper a fee.

Speaker Change #131: And we are undoubtedly either eight when she gets higher airfares are we going to ensure that the consumers get access to ryanair.

Speaker Change #131: Yep.

Speaker Change #131: The real airfares Theres upside for both of US did not.

Unknown Executive: There's upside for both of us in that. I would still be of the view that we want to be Europe's largest scheduled airline and I don't really want to have the distraction of dealing with a holiday product. We did try to do it before, dress it up as Ryanair holidays, but really, all we were trying to do was to be an OTA, connect the OTAs to our flight system.

Speaker Change #131: I would still be of the view that we wanted to be a Europe's largest scheduled airlines and I don't really want to have the distraction of dealing with the holidays product. We did try to do it before dress it up with Ryanair apologies, but really all we were trying to do is to be a N O T connect the otas to our system and.

Unknown Executive: They want to overcharge everybody so you know it's taken us about 10 years to convert them to our way of thinking but lo and behold I think we're now converting them and we are seeing strong booking flows coming from the ones who are as Eddie said a lot of them haven't got the pipe fully open yet but the first ones in which was Travel Fusion, Kiwi, we're seeing very strong growth in those markets and I think there's a very good business for both Ryanair and for those approved OTAs particularly because access to Ryanair's lower airfares means you have a much lower price to combat package than you have trying to combine it with the airfares of our much higher fare competitors. But I'm still not a believer in holidays and I would be very happy at any stage over the next five or ten years to put Ryanair's underlying profitability up against that of, say, EasyJet Airline and their holiday product. Where do we think we're going on fuel hedging?

Speaker Change #131: They wanted to overcharge, everybody. So it's taken us about 10 years to convert them to our way of thinking.

Speaker Change #132: It wouldnt be hold I think we're now converting it and we are seeing strong booking flows coming from the ones who are as Eddie said a lot of them I haven't got the pipe fully opened yet, but the first one Zane which was travel fusion Kiwi, we're seeing very strong growth in those those markets and I think there's a very good.

Speaker Change #132: Business for both Ryanair and far.

Speaker Change #132: Those are approved Otas, particularly because I guess to Ryanair is lower airfares means you'll have a much lower price to combat package that you guys have tried to combine it with the airfares have are much higher fair competitor.

But I'm not a believer in the holidays and I would be very happy at any stage over the next five or 10 years to put ryanair its underlying profitability up against that I'll say easy jet.

Speaker Change #132: As airline out there holiday product.

Speaker Change #133: Where do you think we're going to let you know where do I think.

Unknown Executive: I mean, I think... We've said this recently, in the old days, we used to be just blindly let's be 90% hedged on a rolling basis. I think we have to be a little bit more careful going forward. There is more volatility in oil at the moment.

Speaker Change #133: At least that just recently in the old days, we used to be just blindly, let's be 90% hedged on a rolling basis.

Speaker Change #133: He can be a little bit more careful going forward there is more volatility in oil at the moment.

Unknown Executive: We're a bit nervous to be any more than kind of 70, 75% hedged. And I think we're also being a little bit tougher in terms of our hedging. You know, we could hedge the balance of this year, FY25. Douglas Goldstein, CFP®, is the director of Profile Investment Services and the host of the Goldstein on Gelt radio show. Douglas Goldstein, CFP®, is the director of Profile Investment Services and the host of the Goldstein on Gelt radio show.

Nervous to be any more that kind of 70% to 75% hedged.

Speaker Change #133: And I think we're also being a little bit tougher in terms of the hour hedging you know we could hedge the balance of this year FY 'twenty by that.

Speaker Change #133: 80, 580, 480 $590 per barrel this morning, but at the moment, we have a hedge price of $79 per barrel, but we see opportunities to add to that and we saw a couple of those in recent weeks I think we added another two or 3%.

Speaker Change #133: The 70%, but keeping the average hedge price below 80% I think it goes to make them nervous that if there.

Speaker Change #133: Fundamental underlying trend in oil still appears to be strong all.

Paul: Paul you have strong growth in production OPEC plus countries trying to restrain our production if I caught that production weak demand out of China, and the U S and therefore, the underlying that kind of a stupid the underlying pumps, which tells me that oil prices trending downwards, and yet a lot of geopolitical uncertainty.

Paul: P. It up in the mid Eighty's, So we're a little bit.

Paul: Nervous at the moment of the hedging much more I hate to above $80 a barrel in case.

Paul: <unk> breaks out in the middle East and Ukraine, and all the rest of it but we believe that you know workhorse certainly far better than any of our competitors in Europe over the next 12 months some of our competitors aren't able to age. They don't have a balance sheet to be able to age. There was a talk about price caps, but in reality the price cap is almost that.

Paul: The price cap out at current fuel prices.

Paul: I think we are I don't think we're at the moment are searching for the next year or two while we continue to see volatility and the possibility that oil prices might trend downwards, I think it would be.

Unknown Executive: I think we'd be nervous to be hedged up at around 90%, where we think 70% and if we can nick a bit of value on closer in hedges, I think that's what we should be. And Neil, I don't know if you want to add, or maybe Thomas Fowler might want to add something in there. Yeah, I would just add that you hit the nail on the head when you said a lot of our competitors are not hedging. Jet is an over-the-counter product.

Paul: Nervous to be hedged up at or above, 90%, where we think 70% and if we can make a bit of a value on social reading hedges I think that's what we should be.

Paul: At.

Speaker Change #135: Maybe Thomas father, who might want to add something to that.

Speaker Change #136: Yeah, I would just add stuff I mean, you hit the nail on the head when you said a lot of our competitors are not hedging jazz is a an over the counter products were one of the more active players in that market. So many sense, we can be bidding up the market against ourselves. So we just have to be a little bit more nuanced in how we do it.

Unknown Executive: We're one of the more active players in that market. So, in a sense, we can be bidding up the market against ourselves. So we just have to be a little bit more nuanced in how we do it.

Speaker Change #136: And equally we don't want to be.

Unknown Executive: And equally, we don't want to be, you know, have too much hedging in place at a time when our competitors are lightly hedged for all the reasons Michael just called out there. [inaudible] I've nothing to add, I think it is just down to volatility with the underlying oil price at the moment and just being sensible about not overheating while there's so much volatility. Okay, and Eddie and Jason, any kind of views on the OTA, a holiday, generally a holiday product? Feel free to disagree with me, but never the less.

Michael: Too much hedging in place and the time when our competitors are likely hedged for all the reasons Michael just.

Michael: All of it out there.

Speaker Change #137: Okay well thanks.

Yeah.

Speaker Change #137: Tom.

Speaker Change #138: I think so yes.

Michael: Michael I think it is just down to volatility was the underlying oil price at the moment than just been sensible about overheads and while there's so much volatility.

Speaker Change #139: Okay, and I might add Ian Jason any kind of.

Speaker Change #140: Views on the Otas holidays generally of holiday product.

Speaker Change #141: Do you disagree with me, but nevertheless.

Unknown Executive: Well, Michael, Eddie here, yeah, just on the holiday products, I don't disagree with you on that, but what you can see when you actually get to meet with the OTAs, particularly those that package holidays, rather than doing transfer products or selling flights only, is that they have much more agility now, and are completely buoyed up by the fact that they've got access to the lowest seat costs in Europe, and they can take, you know, they can direct that to the markets that are, you know, that are responding best to consumer demand, and that fits in perfectly where you've got the largest airline in Europe with the lowest seat costs, with the widest range of destinations, and, you know, they don't have to, whereas who they're competing with are locking in on hotel costs much further out, it's not a business that, you know, we'd have to have a huge amount of expertise to do that in-house, and I think this model, for the limited market that it is, and if they're good at it, let them at it, and plug into our seat inventory. Okay. Thanks very much.

Speaker Change #142: Oh, my gosh, here's the extra Sunday.

Speaker Change #143: On the holiday product like I don't disagree with you on that.

Speaker Change #143: But what you can see where you actually get to me.

Speaker Change #143: With the Otas producing those as a package holidays.

Speaker Change #143: Transfer products, our southern sites only is that they have much more agility no other completely buoyed by the fact that they've got access to the lowest <unk> costs in Europe and they can take.

Speaker Change #143: Can direct that to the markets that are that are responding best consumer demand and that fits in perfectly where you've got the largest airline in Europe with the lowest <unk> costs with the widest range of destinations and.

Speaker Change #144: They don't have to whereas who they're competing with are locking in hotel costs Woodford or I'm sorry.

Speaker Change #143: It's not a business does.

We'd have to have a huge amount of expertise to do that in house and I think this model for the limited market that it is and if they're good at is let the mothers and plug into our seed inventory.

Speaker Change #143: Yeah.

Speaker Change #145: Okay. Thanks very much next question please.

So even though it is crossing.

Unknown Executive: Next question, please, Mike King. Thank you. The next question comes from Ruairi Cullinane from RBC. Please go ahead, your line is now open. Ruairi, hi. Good morning.

Speaker Change #145: Larry Cullinane from RBC. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Speaker Change #145: Hi.

Unknown Executive: The first question is on disruption and how that is tracking. I was wondering if there was anything you'd like to see this summer to perhaps take some slack out of your curing ratios beyond summer 24. And then secondly, I understand it's not your base case expectation, but if the max 10 deliveries were to slip, are there any contingency plans that you're thinking about? Thank you. At this point in time, we are expecting less disruption than we had this time last year. The French ATC had 54 days of strikes through the first six months of last year over the pension reforms.

Ruairi Cullinane: Good morning. The first question is on disruption and how that is Trumping I was wondering if.

Speaker Change #147: There was anything you'd like to see this summer to perhaps take some slack out of your occurring ratios beyond 'twenty.

Speaker Change #148: <unk> 24, and then secondly on Sundays.

Speaker Change #149: Your base case expectation, but if Max 10 deliveries were to slip to that any contingency plans that you're thinking about thank you.

Speaker Change #150: Okay. Thanks, sorry to those I mean.

Speaker Change #151: At this point in time, we're expecting less disruptions that we had this time last year French ATC had 50 54 days of strikes and <unk>.

Speaker Change #151: True.

Speaker Change #151: The first six months of last year over the pension.

Unknown Executive: Thus far, we've had one big day of French ATC strikes on the 24th and 25th of April. We do expect some more French disruptions in the run-up to the Olympics. We think once the Olympics get started, though, there won't be any ATC disruptions as there were during the World Cup in Paris last year. We think the unions have been told there will be no disruptions during the Olympics.

Speaker Change #152: He should reforms.

Speaker Change #152: We've had one big day of French ATC strikes on the 24th of 20 <unk> of April we do expect some more French disruptions in the run up to the Olympics. We think once the Olympics get started though there wont be any hec disruptions as there wasn't joined the World Cup in Paris last year would you be you used to be told no disruptions during.

Speaker Change #152: The Olympics.

Unknown Executive: So we would be reasonably hopeful that there will be fewer disruptions this summer with ATC. Unfortunately, there's nothing we can do, though, to reduce our crewing ratios. Our crewing ratios and labor issues would be a bit higher in the first half of the year delivery capacity, but it would mean a slight step up in labor costs this summer. We are negotiating some modest compensation from Boeing, but it won't make up for the revenue and the cost shortfalls and the cost increases that arise as a result of being 20 aircraft short of the 59 aircraft deliveries this summer. The Agency plans to lift the MAX 10 slips.

Speaker Change #152: So we would be reasonably hopeful that there will be less disruption, there's someone who at ATC.

Speaker Change #152: Unfortunately, there's nothing we can do to reduce our maturing ratios, our crewing ratios and labor issue would be a bit higher in the first half of the year than we had.

Speaker Change #152: Originally planned because we're 20 aircraft short.

You know, we crewed up for food deliveries and boy, we're going to leave at 20 aircraft short so we.

Speaker Change #152: That's not where you could just flex get rid of the pilots or cabin crew, we really take down cost hit this summer we will keep those.

Speaker Change #152: Extra pilots and cabin crew.

Speaker Change #152: Should give us a little bit better.

Recovery capacity, but it would mean a slight step up in labor cost. This summer we are negotiating some modest compensation from Boeing but it won't make up for the revenue and the profit, but the revenue and the cost.

Speaker Change #152: Sure.

Speaker Change #152: New shortfalls on the cost increases that arise as a result of being 20 aircraft short of the 59 aircraft deliveries this summer.

Speaker Change #153: And I forget what was the second part of the question.

Speaker Change #154: Good morning.

Speaker Change #155: Max 10 slips yes.

Unknown Executive: There won't be that much of a continuum, it obviously depends, at this point we're expecting 17 aircraft in the first half of, we have no aircraft deliveries in calendar 25 or in calendar 26, we will get the first, we still have the 29 deliveries to take from Boeing in the first half of 2025, but they were originally scheduled for delivery in late 2024, but then we have no deliveries in 2026, the 17 in summer 27 is not really growth, that was really to take out some of the louder aircraft leases that are being returned and some of the older aircraft, we would simply extend some of our older aircraft for a year or two, but there still won't be any meaningful growth in summer 26 or summer 27, we get the first 50 aircraft for summer 28, and that's when we will restart growth after a two or three year period, or a two year period through summer 26 and summer 27, where we essentially have no growth, and that to my mind also plays to the overall capacity constraint story across Europe for the next two, three, four summers, you have aircraft manufacturer delivery today, the Airbus groundings for the engine repairs, and the fact that Ryanair after we get hopefully 50 aircraft for the summer 2025, then we have no net aircraft for summer 26 or summer 27. But so our contingency, if there's some slippage on the max tens would be, we've already extended some of the louder leases from 2024 to 2028, and we would simply fly a couple of our older NGs for another year or two, there would be a bit of a spike up in maintenance costs as a result of flying older aircraft, and we won't have the benefit for maybe summer 2027 of these new aircraft with the carry 20% more passengers but burn 20% less fuel. Next question, please, Maxine. The next question comes from Savanthi Sith from Raymond James. Please go ahead, your line is now open. Savanthi, hi.

Speaker Change #155: Okay.

Speaker Change #155: Okay.

Speaker Change #155: There won't be that much of a contingent me at.

Speaker Change #156: It obviously depends like I pinch points out we're expecting 17 aircraft in the first half we have nowhere with no aircraft deliveries in our in calendar 'twenty five or in calendar 'twenty six.

Speaker Change #156: We will get the FERC, but we still have the tricky nine deliveries to take for Boeing and the first half of 2025, but they were originally scheduled for delivery in late 2024.

Speaker Change #156: No deliveries in 2026 to 17 eight sub 27, it's not really growth.

Speaker Change #156: We need to take out some of the debt.

Speaker Change #156: It allowed the aircraft leases that are being retired and some of the older aircraft. We received the extent some of our older aircraft for a year or two.

Speaker Change #156: There won't be any meaningful growth and some are 26 October 27th.

Speaker Change #156: We get the first 50 aircraft for silver at 28, and that's when we would restart growth after two or three year period on a two year two year period through silver 26 September 27, where we essentially have no growth I'm not sure. My mind also plays to the overall capacity constraints jewelry across Europe for the next.

Speaker Change #156: 234 summers you have.

Speaker Change #156: Aircraft manufacturer delivery delays at the Airbus Groundings for their practice with the engine repairs and the fact that Ryanair after we get home.

Fully 50 aircraft in December 2025, and we have no net aircraft for summer 'twenty six 'twenty seven.

Speaker Change #156: But also our contingency if there's some slippage on the change would be we've already extended so it would allow the leases from 2024 to 2028, and we would typically fly a couple of our older.

And a Gs for another year or two there would be a bit of a spike up in maintenance costs. As a result of flying older aircraft and we won't have the benefit far and maybe summer 'twenty 'twenty seven.

Speaker Change #156: These new aircraft with the Curry, 20% more posture, but burned 20% that's you.

Speaker Change #157: Next question please.

Speaker Change #158: Your next question comes from.

Speaker Change #159: Next from Raymond James. Please go ahead your line is moderating.

Speaker Change #159: Brian.

Speaker Change #160: Hey, good morning, just a couple of quick thoughts.

Unknown Executive: Hey. Hey, good morning. Just a couple of quick follow-up tech questions. I know Eddie mentioned seat growth of 9% over the summer. I was curious as to whether your fleet delivery is consistent with expectations, what you expected in kind of the winter quarters. And then just on the Lauda fleet, with the extension, what is that fleet expectation for the out years? And are you still kind of expecting to get out of that in those next five years? Okay, Eddie, you take the first half of that question. I'll do the louder one first.

Speaker Change #161: Ill take questions and I know Eddie mentioned, our seat growth of 9% over the summer I was curious if even as your fleet deliveries consistent with expectations like you expected in.

Speaker Change #161: The winter quarters.

Speaker Change #161: And then just on the loud asleep and curious what the extension what is that for your expectation for the out years and he is still kind of expecting to get out of that in the next five years.

Speaker Change #162: Okay and do you take the first half of that credit I'll do the latter one first so.

Unknown Executive: So the louder fleet, generally, we've extended out; the louder team has done a terrific job. So we've extended three of those aircraft leases that were due to terminate in 2025 or 2024. We've extended those out for four years, but without any increase in the lease costs, which I think is key.

Speaker Change #162: Generally we've extended aisle.

Speaker Change #163: That allowed the team has done a terrific job. So we've extended three of those aircraft leases that would you determination in 2020 five 'twenty 'twenty four we've extended those out for four years, but without any increase in the lease costs, which I think is key.

Unknown Executive: Those are very favorable leases in the current marketplace. I think some of the lessors want to keep Ryanair on their books as a customer. The Ryanair group is a customer, and therefore, we're willing to extend those leases for four years without any increase in what are below-market monthly lease rentals. We're happy to extend those aircraft. We would like to replace the louder A320 fleet with more Airbus aircraft, but at the moment, in the current marketplace, that looks unlikely.

Speaker Change #163: Those are very favorable leases in the current marketplace I think some of that that's always want to keep Brian are on their books as a customer.

Speaker Change #163: They're running their group as a customer and therefore, we're willing to extend out those leases for four years.

Speaker Change #163: Without any increase in what we're what our below market that monthly lease rentals.

We're happy to extend those aircraft, we would like to replace allowed an <unk> hundred 20 fleet with more <unk> and more Airbus aircraft, but at the moment to the current market place that looks unlikely now it would be unusual if there is some downturn or something event at between now and 2028.

Unknown Executive: Now, it would be unusual if there wasn't some downturn or some event between now and 2028. But for the moment, we've extended those aircraft beyond where we originally thought we'd return those aircraft in 2025 and 2026. They're out to 2028, so that takes us well beyond the first of the max 10 deliveries. But we will still look for opportunities to see if we can't grow the louder A320, the louder Airbus fleet, or replace the louder Airbus fleet with other Airbus aircraft.

Speaker Change #163: For the moment.

Speaker Change #163: We've extended those aircraft beyond what we originally thought we originally thought we'd have great we'd return to those aircraft and 25 and 26.

Speaker Change #163: 28 that takes us beyond well beyond the parts of the Max 10 deliveries.

Speaker Change #163: And but we would still look for opportunities.

Speaker Change #163: To see if we can't grow and that's allowed to a tree that allowed the Airbus fleet are replaced allowed to Airbus secret other Airbus aircraft and people for 700, you've already what waters have been if we had taken all of the.

Unknown Executive: What would it have been if we had taken all of the 59 Boeing aircraft deliveries this summer? Well, we're just going to do just short of 140 million seats at just approximately 9%. So it would have been, you know, it'd have been marginally up on, you know, another half percent, I suppose, if we'd got the full deliveries. But it's so...

Speaker Change #163: Boeing are 59 Boeing aircraft deliveries this summer.

Speaker Change #163: Well, we're just going to just short of 140 million takes us.

Speaker Change #163: Just approximately 9% so it would've been.

Speaker Change #163: Marginally up on them.

Speaker Change #163: 5% I suppose if we if we've got a fall deliveries push them.

Speaker Change #163: So I mean.

Unknown Executive: I mean, if you took it over the full year, Savi, we would have grown, we would have delivered 205 million passengers at slightly lower labor costs because, you know, we'd have had the full fleet in which we're crewing this summer. Instead, we're looking at a full year of somewhere between 198-200 million passengers. Some of that growth will take place in Q3 and in Q4, which is not the most profitable time of the year to be delivering growth, but we have the aircraft, and we have the crews that will make sense for us to continue to expand.

Speaker Change #163: Looking over the full year, a savvy, we would've grown we would've never 205 million passengers.

Speaker Change #163: Slightly lower labor cost because you know we've had the full suite in a way for cooling this summer.

Speaker Change #163: Instead, we're looking at a full year of somewhere between 198 200 million passengers some of that growth will take place in Q3.

And in Q4, which is not the most problem from time of the year to be delivering growth, but we have the aircraft. When we have the crews and it would make sense for us to act.

Unknown Executive: I think you'll see a little bit more growth from us in the second half of the year, which will be good for volume but not necessarily good for profitability. Next question, please, Maxine. The next question comes from Conor Dwyer from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, Conor, your line is now open. All right. Hi guys, good morning.

Speaker Change #163: To expand I think you'd see a little bit more growth from us in the second half of the year, which would be good for volumes, but not necessarily good for profitability.

Speaker Change #164: Next question please.

Yeah.

Speaker Change #165: The next question comes from Connor Lynagh from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is now primarily.

Conor Dwyer: The first question is for Neil on the CapEx question about it being pulled forward to FY25. I think the indication for FY26 is unchanged at 1 billion, maybe 1.1. And I'm just wondering, is there any indication you can give us for the FY27 year of what that might roughly look like ahead of it then ramping up again into FY28? And the second question is on the buyback.

Speaker Change #166: Hi, guys good morning.

First question is for.

Speaker Change #167: Neil back on the Capex question.

Speaker Change #168: Being pulled forward to FY 'twenty, five and I think the indication for FY 'twenty six is unchanged at 1 billion, maybe $1. One I was just wondering is there any indication you can give us for the FY 'twenty seven year of what that might roughly look like ahead of ramping up or getting into FY 'twenty eight.

Unknown Executive: We'll see too early to say if another one will be announced in November. And I'm just wondering, is there maybe an indication that we could use in kind of the next two to three years of like a target net cash, net debt level that you think is right for the business? Thanks. Neil, do you want to take a quarter of a camp exerbite 27?

Speaker Change #169: And the second question is on the buyback.

Speaker Change #170: We'll see too early to say if another one will be announced in November.

Just wondering is there may be an indication that we could use.

And kind of the next two to three years of like a target net cash net debt level that you think is right for the business. Thanks.

Speaker Change #171: Steve do you want to take the Capex.

Capex for FY 'twenty seven.

Unknown Executive: Yeah, I mean, we're going to see it increase a bit, Conor, as we start to take the first of the deliveries, hopefully, off the max tens into the spring of 2027, and we start to ramp up on the PDPs. But it won't increase meaningfully. It'll really be a year or two before that number starts to go up.

Speaker Change #172: Yeah, I mean, we're going to see us increase the best corner as we start to take the first two deliveries hopefully after the Max turns into the spring of.

Speaker Change #172: 2027, and we start to ramp up on the on.

Speaker Change #172: On the PDP.

Speaker Change #172: To increase meaningfully as really a year or two before that number starts to go up I wouldn't want to put a number into the market. Yes. At this stage I mean, you have next year and you have this year, which is probably sufficient but it will start to ramp up.

Unknown Executive: I wouldn't want to put a number on the market yet at this stage. I mean, you have next year and you have this year, which is probably a submission, but it will start to ramp up, you know, you're talking three or four hundred million, give or take from the following year. On the buyback, look, again, we continue to be strongly cash-generative, but I don't think we would want to commit to anything other than the board wouldn't want to commit to anything other than, look, when we have surplus cash, it would be returned to shareholders.

Speaker Change #172: Talking three or $400 million and.

Speaker Change #172: Give or take.

Speaker Change #172: From the following year.

Speaker Change #172: On the buyback look again.

Speaker Change #172: We continue to be strongly cash generative.

Speaker Change #172: But I.

Speaker Change #172: I don't think we would want to commit to anything or the board wouldn't want to commit to anything other than look when we have surplus cash it would be returned to shareholders.

Unknown Executive: There will be a capex holiday for the next two years as we move out of delivery, so we have two big bond repayments in the next two years. We have to repay $850 million in September 2025, and then we have a $1.2 billion bond in May 2026. So, you know, these are big debts, but we are committed to repaying them because of the rising interest costs. It makes sense to repay them.

There will be a capex holiday for the next two years as we move out of the move.

Speaker Change #172: Move outs, but the Boeing delivery, but we have two big bond repayments.

Speaker Change #172: In the next two years, we have to repay $850 million in September 2025, and then we have a $1 2 billion bond in May 2026. So you know these are big gaps, but we are committed to repaying dose because of the rising cost of our interest cost it makes sense to repay those were down too.

Unknown Executive: Once we're down to that, I think we would, as a company, be concerned to maintain a kind of reasonable cash bond of, you know, somewhere between $3 and $4 billion. We have got to be cognizant, you know, that there will be another downturn, whether we don't know when it will come or what will cause it, but there will be another downturn. It is a capital-intensive, cyclical business, and most of our money is made by going into these things like COVID, like wars, and terrorism, in a strong cash position so that we can, you know, renegotiate airport deals, aircraft contracts, et cetera, et cetera, from positions of strength during a downturn. The world is full of airlines, you know, who are Thankfully, we don't do that.

That I think we would accompany.

Speaker Change #172: The company.

Speaker Change #172: <unk> be concerned to go you know maintain a kind of a reasonable cash fund.

Speaker Change #172: And I'll go somewhere between three and $4 billion and we have got to be cognizant.

Speaker Change #172: There will be another downturn.

Speaker Change #172: We don't know when it was called my Walkman 'cause it but there will be another downturn. It is a capital intensive cyclical business and most of our money is made by going into these things like Covid like War I Wars terrorism.

Speaker Change #172: Isn't that strong cash position. So that we can you know we negotiate airport deals aircraft contracts et cetera, et cetera from a position of strength during a downturn at the words, it's full of airlines, who are out there ordering aircraft at the peak and peak pricing for aircrafts Thankfully, we don't do that we already have.

Unknown Executive: We already have more than 360 aircraft deliveries, well-priced at the moment, that will take us – will deliver us organic growth up to the mid-2030s, but I think we will want to, even when we pay down that debt, we will see it engaged, I think, in consistent – Transcripts provided by Transcription Outsourcing, LLC. The opinions expressed herein are those of the guests and not necessarily those of Douglas Goldstein, Profile Investment Services, Ltd., or Israel National News. Yeah, I'd have a slightly wider range; three and a half to five billion would be where I felt comfortable.

Speaker Change #172: 360 aircraft deliveries well priced at the moment to take us.

Speaker Change #173: Could you give us organic growth out to 'twenty to mid 'twenty turkeys.

Speaker Change #173: But I think we would want to and when we pay down that debt.

Speaker Change #174: She is engaged I think and consistent.

Shareholder returns when did that the ordinary dividends or share buybacks bar.

Speaker Change #174: Foreseeable future until there's another downturn.

Speaker Change #174: When there isn't another downturn.

Speaker Change #174: We will look at.

Speaker Change #174: Makes sense for us not to do.

Speaker Change #174: Share buybacks I would hope that underlying profitability won't be affected but it probably will be in which case the dividend will be affected as well.

Speaker Change #174: But I would think we will continue to operate a conservative balance sheet pay down debt and then I.

Speaker Change #174: It can't be as your peers.

Speaker Change #174: I think we'd want to go into the next downturn weighs in somewhere between three and $4 billion.

Speaker Change #174: In a growth in gross and net cash.

Speaker Change #175: Yeah, I would have a slightly wider range three five to 5 billion would be where I feel comfortable okay.

Speaker Change #175: And that range at the moment.

Unknown Executive: Okay. Great. Thank you. Thanks.

Speaker Change #176: Great. Thank you.

Speaker Change #175: Yeah.

Unknown Executive: Okay, thanks, Conor. Next question, please. The next question comes from Neil Glynn from Air Controls Power. Please go ahead, Neil, your line is now open. Good morning, everybody. Just one quick one from me left.

Speaker Change #177: Okay. Thanks next question please.

Speaker Change #178: Your next question comes from Neil Glynn from smaller.

Speaker Change #179: Please go ahead ma'am.

Neil Glynn: Just following your fourth quarter, it seems like a very prevalent theme across the sector that the seasonality of earnings has changed for everybody with a higher cost base in the low season. I'm just interested; is this a potential opportunity for you to reflect that in airport third-party handler deals? Or are there any other structural changes to the cost picture that might ensue as a result of the, I don't think, you know, we don't see any...

Speaker Change #180: Good morning, everybody.

Speaker Change #181: One quick one for me left.

Speaker Change #182: Just following your fourth quarter it seems like a very prevailing theme across the sector about the seasonality of earnings has changed for everybody with a higher cost base.

Speaker Change #182: And the low season and I'm just interested is this a potential opportunity for you to reflect that in airports third party hunter deals or are there any other structural changes to the cost picture that might ensue as a result of that.

Speaker Change #183: I don't think we don't see any.

Neil Glynn: If you stand back and look at it from a structural point of view, I think there's a lot of inflation built into the industry across Europe at the moment. There's inflation on the pilot side, less so on the cabin crew, but nevertheless, we're seeing above inflation pay settlement among a number of our competitors. Airports, particularly those airports that have pricing power, you are seeing handling costs and airport fees rising significantly, mainly at our competitors' We went through COVID. We negotiated long-term extensions at most of our major airports.

Speaker Change #184: Mom and dad, if you stand back and look at it from a structural point of view I think there's a lot of inflation built into the industry across Europe at the moment.

Speaker Change #184: There's a lot of it does inflation on the pilot side less so on the cabin crew, but nevertheless, we're seeing above inflation pay settlement among a number of our competitors airports.

Speaker Change #184: Particularly those airports were to have pricing power.

Speaker Change #184: You were seeing handling costs, and therefore fees rising significantly mainly in our competitors' airports and we went through Covid. We negotiated long term extensions of most of our major airport. All fields. We are we have a set time.

Unknown Executive: Cost fields, we self-handle at a number of the other bigger airports, Dublin, Stansted, so we're insulated from a lot of that cost inflation. But there's no doubt there is some cost inflation on the labor side coming through the model in the next couple of years. I would be reasonably sanguine about that in the Ryanair model. I think the critical thing for us is that the cost gap between us and our competitors is widening significantly. Boeing MAX aircraft, where we're carrying at the moment 4% more passengers and burning 16% less fuel.

Speaker Change #184: There are a number of the other bigger airports adopted.

Speaker Change #184: So we're insulated from a lot of that not cost inflation, but there is no doubt there is going to be there is some cost inflation on the labor side coming through the model in the next couple of years.

Speaker Change #184: I would be reasonably.

Speaker Change #184: Sanguine about that in the Ryanair model I E.

Speaker Change #184: The critical thing for us is that the cost gap between us and our competitors. These widening significantly and that is labor inflation among our competitors is materially higher than recent Ryan here.

Speaker Change #184: Cost of financing is materially higher among our competitors, then adhesion reiner and aircraft and feed costs aren't materially higher.

Speaker Change #184: Our competitors that they are aiding in ryanair.

Speaker Change #184: And so I think we will see a widening cost gap between us and our competitors across Europe in the next couple of years, particularly if we take more delivery of a Boeing Max aircraft wherever it can.

Speaker Change #184: Carrying at the moment, focusing more passionate 16% less fuel.

Unknown Executive: That will be another further material cost advantage for us. We see some of our competitors taking new aircraft, but those aircraft are coming in at very high prices at market rates. And that is resulting in a significant widening of the aircraft ownership cost. You'll see that on our investor slide, slide four. And I would go back to slide four here.

Speaker Change #184: That will be another part of a material cost advantage for us we see some of our competitors, taking new aircraft, but those aircrafts are coming.

Coming in at very high prices market market rates are.

Speaker Change #184: And that is really a.

Speaker Change #184: Resulting in significant a significant widening in the aircraft ownership cost you'll see it in our investor Slide slide four.

Unknown Executive: In a lot of our presentations at the roadshow the next week, the gap between us and the competition is widening materially. And if there's a little bit of labor cost inflation in our model for the next year or two, I think that's fair. Our people work hard, and they are entitled to see some rewards.

Speaker Change #184: And I would go back to slide four here.

Speaker Change #184: A lot of our presentations over the road show in the next week the gap between us and the competition is widening materially and if theres a little bit of labor cost inflation.

Speaker Change #184: For the next year or two I think Thats fair.

Speaker Change #184: People work hard and they are entitled to see some rewards that the reward for that work and we will continue to be disciplined on costs, we will face down sub strikes in the next couple of.

Unknown Executive: The reward for that work, we will continue to be disciplined on costs. We will face some strikes in the next couple of years, although we have reasonably good relations at the moment with our union partners and our labor teams across Europe. But everybody will be looking at the compensation settlements in the States, what EasyJet does with their pilot pay, where pilots have rejected a 20% pay increase. And I think we will continue to be cognizant of that.

Speaker Change #184: Years, although we have reasonably good relation to the more with our Union partners and our neighbor teams across Europe, but everybody will be looking at the comp settlement in the states.

Speaker Change #184: What we usually get do with their pilot pay per our pilots are projected at 20% pay increase.

Speaker Change #184: And I think we will continue to be cognizant of that but.

Unknown Executive: But I don't see any structural gains at the moment in the current marketplace. The next round of structural gains will take place when there's another downturn, and we will go into that downturn, hopefully with zero debt, a strong balance sheet, and the ability to. The New Roots team probably was fending off calls from 15 or 20 airports, all of whom were looking for those aircraft this winter. the new government in place, we think that the new government is much more European, our eyes are towards Brussels and Europe, and I think we'll want to significantly increase traffic growth at the Polish airports. But other than that, I don't see anything structural. Neil, anything you want to point to? No, not particularly, Michael.

Speaker Change #184: But I don't see any structural gains at the moment in the current marketplace. The next round of silk through gains will take place when theres. Another downturn and we will go into that downturn, hopefully with zero debt, a strong balance sheet and the ability to.

Speaker Change #184: Do better deal I think if theres one stroke through area again. It is still the fact that we are one of the few airlines across Europe.

Speaker Change #184: Airports growth and we saw that as recently as last week, when we announced the closure of the three aircraft Bordeaux base. It in November.

Speaker Change #184: The new routes that you probably were fending off calls for 15 or 20 airports all of whom were looking for those aircraft. This winter. Please based up here.

Speaker Change #184: The deals are getting better as Eddie has also pointed to is a lot of market that easily now that the regions are at scrapping.

Speaker Change #184: The attacks.

Speaker Change #185: What did you say you know a significant structural change in the Italian marketplace.

Speaker Change #185: And we are still seeing significant growth opportunities in central and eastern Europe.

Speaker Change #185: We are a west coast Theres numerous management changes for example, a lot of the Polish airports with the new government in place, we think that your government just much more European or looks towards both of those in Europe, and I think we'll want to significantly increase.

The profit growth that debate at the Polish airports.

Speaker Change #185: But other than that I don't see anything structurally or anything you would point to.

Unknown Executive: I think we've locked down most of the key costs and are just taking the opportunities as we see them. Thanks. Bye. Next question, back to you. Thank you. Our final question today comes from Andrew Loewenberg from Barclays. Please go ahead, Andrew.

Michael: No not particularly Michael I think we've locked down most of the key costs.

Michael: Just jump on the opportunities as we see them.

Speaker Change #186: Hey, thanks.

Speaker Change #187: Next question back thing.

Speaker Change #188: Thank you. Our final question today comes from Angie <unk> from Barclays. Please go ahead Sanjay Your line is now open.

Andrew Loewenberg: Your line is now open. Oh, hiya guys. You've won several legal cases on state aid against your rivals, yet not a lot seems to have happened. Do you expect to get anything constructive out of those victories? And then on the OTAs, you've won a lot of them, but eDreams is a... Standout.

Speaker Change #189: Oh, Hey, guys.

Speaker Change #190: We won several legal cases on state aid.

Speaker Change #191: Against your rivals yet not seem to have happened.

Do you expect to get and I think constructive.

Speaker Change #192: Although victory.

Speaker Change #192: And then on the Otas you'd want in order to know that the E dreams as it.

Unknown Executive: Do you think they will, in time, roll over and join the others? I think that's a question we'll give the state aid cases to. Juliusz, will you take that?

Speaker Change #193: Stand out do you think they will in time.

Speaker Change #193: Over and join the other.

Play with your nicely.

Speaker Change #194: I think that's a question we get the state aid cases to Julian when you take that and then.

Juliusz Komorek: And then, again, so I don't dominate you, I might add Eddie Wilson, who's closer to the discussion of the OTH, what do you think eDreams would like you to do? So, Juliusz, state aid cases, ideas as to how to calculate the damage that was done to competition and what should be recovered. In some cases, that may also mean retrospective self-surrender, where those were not imposed initially.

Speaker Change #195: Against cycle dominated I might ask Eddie Wilson, who is closer to the allowed to just go through the Otas. What do you think of your dreams are likely to do so truly a state aid cases.

Speaker Change #196: Thanks, Mike and Hi, Andrew.

Speaker Change #197: So far the EU court overturned over half of all of the states, Wisconsin to airlines in Europe. During Covid over 20 billion euros, which is quite remarkable many of those decisions are under appeal, though either by the commission or by the airline that was involved so while appeals are pending there will be no recovery.

Speaker Change #198: At the same time, we are in regular contact with European Commission, telling them, how they should go about recovery and giving them some ideas as to how to calculate the damage that was done to competition and what should be recovered in some cases that may also mean retrospective sub surrenders.

Unknown Executive: So, you know, this is not over; it will probably take another few years. So please have some patience and keep tuning in to those calls. And we'll keep giving you updates. Thanks Julius and Eddie. OTAs, eDreams, Yeah, I mean, you know, this market is consolidating. And as I said earlier, there's almost some relief from the OTAs that we've dealt with in terms of having a stable sort of business model to grow on.

Speaker Change #198: Those were not imposed initiatives. So this is not over it will probably take another few years. So please have some patients.

Keep tuning into those coals and we're giving you will keep giving you updates.

Speaker Change #199: Thanks, Julian and Eddie Otas E Dreams.

Yeah, I mean, you know this market is consolidating.

And as I said earlier.

And there's almost some relief from the <unk>.

Speaker Change #199: From the Otas that we've dealt with in terms of having a stable.

Unknown Executive: And I think, you know, eDreams doesn't have any, you know, any USP really because if they're going to cut themselves out of the largest airline in Europe, and, you know, the only model that they have is these sort of loyalty type programs that you've talked about earlier, which are not loyalty programs; they're just another way of price gouging. Like, it is now a more transparent market, and And I think that they'll eventually have to get, they'll either have to come on board or get smaller if they want to access the seed inventory from Ryanair.

The business model to grow and I think you know Adrian we don't have any.

Speaker Change #199: You know, our USP really because if they're going to cut themselves out of the largest airline in Europe and the only model that they have is there any sort of loyalty programs that you've talked about earlier, which are not loyalty programs or just another way of EM Eh price go.

Speaker Change #199: It is now more transparent markets it is becoming more regularized, but I think that.

Speaker Change #199: They'll eventually.

Speaker Change #199: Or has it gets delayed reps come on board or are get smaller if they want to access the inventory from from Ryanair.

Unknown Executive: And just one further point there, just Dwayne, it's the American market this year. I'm reliably informed that it's just close to one and a half percent of our passengers. And we're making it increasingly easy for them to get their boarding cards beforehand, so they don't have to queue at the visa desk. So it's all good news.

Just one further point Theyre just Duane it's the American market. This year I'm reliably informed coming in is.

Speaker Change #199: It's just closer to one 5% of our passengers and we're making it increasingly easy for them to get the reporting currency for us it would have to cure the visa desk. So it's all good.

Speaker Change #199: Good news.

Unknown Executive: I don't believe the E-Dreams model is sustainable. We are being much more aggressive with our communication videos, explaining the E-Dreams pricing scams, and particularly the E-Dreams prime pricing scams. We think some consumer agency, whether it's going to be in Italy or in Spain or in Brussels, is going to move on E-Dreams, and I think the E-Dreams model is fundamentally broken. All of your competitors, whether that's Love Holidays or Kiwi or the other OTAs, have direct access to Ryanair's lowest fares, and all you're doing is paying some intermediate screen scraper to scrape our fares, and then you're scamming consumers by inflating those fares and those ancillary services.

Speaker Change #199: Yeah.

Speaker Change #200: I'll just add that I don't believe I don't believe the dreams model is sustainable I can't you know we are being much more aggressive without communicating videos.

Unknown Executive: The E-Dreams model is going to dwindle pretty dramatically and pretty quickly because it won't be price competitive with the other approved OTAs in the marketplace. If I had my way, I would certainly not want to do a deal with E-Dreams. I think they should be roasted by the consumer agencies, but because we're a big airline, we would have to treat everybody equally, but there's no way we're going to do any deal with E-Dreams that doesn't involve them ending this prime scam and the overcharging that's going on. They're the only ones who are not engaged.

Speaker Change #201: <unk> D E dreams pricing scams, and particularly E dreams trying pricing scabs, we think some consumer agency, whether it's going to be in Italy, or Spain or in process is going to move on the dreams.

Speaker Change #201: And I think the E dreams model is fundamentally broken.

Speaker Change #202: One of your competitors, so I got to love holidays, a kiwi or the other otas have direct access to Ryanair is lowest fares and all you're doing is paying some intermediate screen scraper to scrape out first and then your scamming consumers by taking those fair so those ancillary services.

Speaker Change #202: E Dreams model is going to dwindle, it pretty dramatically up pretty quickly because they wont be price competitive with the other approved otas in the marketplace.

Speaker Change #202: If I had my way I would certainly not want to do a deal with E. Dreams, I think they should be roasted bite the consumer agencies, but because we're big airline huh, we would have to treat everybody equally but there's no way, we're going to do any deal, but he dreams. It doesn't involve them ending this prime scan.

Speaker Change #202: At the the overcharging, that's going on that they'd be overcharging, except they're the only ones who are not engaged that we've had a meeting with them back in I think March direct correct me, if I'm wrong, and we haven't heard back from them. So they might have taken a conscious decision that they're going to keep scamming people, they're going to keep overcharged him and we were.

Unknown Executive: We had a meeting with them back in, I think, March, and we haven't heard back from them since. They, in my mind, have made a conscious decision that they're going to keep scamming people, they're going to keep overcharging them, and we were mystified on their call that they were able to highlight the profitability of E-Dreams Prime and how E-Dreams Prime was producing No great surprise, given that it's a complete scam. We have exposed it before. There's a very interesting video on their videos.

Speaker Change #203: Mr fight out there.

Speaker Change #203: Called calls that they were able to highlight the profitability of E dreams Prime and how he dreams prying besides producing most of their profit no great surprise given that it's a complete scam.

Speaker Change #203: And we have exposed it that's a very interesting you know on their videos, we put up the prices at the Ryanair Air fares at these kind of mythical discount. The retrieves is offering all ended up at the Prime steak. So we think it's not a question of what are your dreams will sign up for the already approved Otas, we need the consumer authorities are going to move on he dreams at sooner.

Unknown Executive: We put up the prices of the Ryanair airfares and these mythical discounts that E-Dreams is offering under the Prime thing. We think it's not a question whether E-Dreams will sign up for the approved OTA. We think the consumer authorities are going to move on E-Dreams sooner rather than later, and it's something that they should be moving on. It's a complete anti-consumer scam

Rather than later.

Speaker Change #203: And it's something that they should be moving on.

Speaker Change #203: <unk>.

Speaker Change #204: Anti consumer Scott.

Speaker Change #205: Okay. My opinion I think that's all the questions. We have is that we thank you everybody participating in the call. We have had full roadshow underway across North America.

Unknown Executive: We have a full roadshow underway across North America, Europe, Ireland, and the UK. If anybody wants a meeting, we'd be happy to facilitate it. You can make contact with the brokers at Citi, Goodbodies, Davies, or through our IR function. As you know, Peter Larkin heads up the IR team.

Europe, Ireland, and the U K and if anybody wants a meeting we'd be happy to vicinity.

Speaker Change #205: You can use it.

Speaker Change #205: A big contract with the brokers are city at Goodbody Davies.

Speaker Change #205: Or through our IR function as you know Peter Larkin, who heads up the IR team.

Unknown Executive: We'd be happy to organize a meeting at some stage during this week's extensive roadshow. And other than that, I would say, look, we are continuing to grow organically. Pricing may be a little bit softer this summer than we had originally expected, but you know, it's not disappointing given that we've come off two summers where pricing was up 20%. But I don't believe the medium-term story has changed one bit. There will still be significant capacity constraints across Europe.

Speaker Change #205: We'd be happy to organized a meeting.

Speaker Change #205: They truly district extensive roadshow.

Speaker Change #206: And other than that I would say look we are continuing to grow organically Tyson, maybe if you could sort of if there's something that we had originally expected, but that's not at all.

Speaker Change #207: I'm not disappointed if given the we come off two summers where pricing was up 20%.

But I don't believe the medium term story has changed one wage there will still be significant capacity constraints across Europe.

Unknown Executive: We will have some modest growth through summer 24 and summer 25, and then we will have no growth in 26 or 27. We believe we, as long as there's nothing untoward or unforeseen, we will generate very strong cash flows over the next couple of years. And we will, I hope, be able to continue to look after our people, pay down our debt, fund all of our traffic from our internally generated cash flow, and still leave some funds there for ordinary dividends and for the occasional share buyback.

Speaker Change #207: We would have some modest growth through the summer 'twenty four and 725 and then we have no growth in 'twenty six 'twenty seven we believe we are as long as there is nothing untoward or unforeseen we would generate very strong cash flows over the next couple of years and we will I hope you're able to continue to look after our people pay down our.

Speaker Change #207: Dash phone to all of our topics from our internally generated cash flow and still leave some funds therefore, our ordinary dividend and the occasional share buyback. So thank you very much everybody. Thank you for your support and we look forward to seeing or speaking to you.

Unknown Executive: So thank you very much everybody, thank you for your support, and we look forward to speaking to you later on this week. Okay, thanks Maxine, we're going to end it there. Thank you everyone. This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines. ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Speaker Change #207: Later this week.

Speaker Change #208: Okay. Thanks, Mike, saying, we can engineer.

Speaker Change #209: Thank you everyone. This concludes today's call. Thank you concerning you may now disconnect your lines.

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