Q2 2024 ManpowerGroup Inc Earnings Call

Welcome to Manpower Group's second quarter earnings results conference call. You will be put into listen-only mode until the question and answer time begins. This call is being recorded. If you care to drop off now, please do so.

Operator: You will be put into listen-only mode until the question and answer time begins. This call is being recorded. If you care to drop off now, please do so. I would now like to turn the call over to ManpowerGroup's Chairman and CEO, Mr. Jonas Prising. Please, you may begin.

Speaker Change: I would now like to turn the call over to ManpowerGroup's Chairman and CEO , Mr. Jonas Prising. Sir, you may begin.

Jonas Prising: Welcome, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2024 conference call. Our Chief Financial Officer, Jack McGinnis, is with me today. For your convenience, we've included our prepared remarks in the investor relations section of our website at manpowergroup.com. Let's start by going through some of the highlights of the quarter, and Jack will go through the second quarter results and guidance for the third quarter of 2024. We'll then share some concluding thoughts before we start our Q&A session. Jack will now discuss the safe harbor. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker Change: Welcome and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2024 conference call. Our Chief Financial Officer, Jack McGinnis, is with me today. For your convenience, we've included our prepared remarks within the investor relations section of our website at manpowergroup.com.

Speaker Change: We'll start by going through some of the highlights of the quarter, and Jack will go through the second quarter results and guidance for the third quarter of 2024. We'll then share some concluding thoughts before we start our Q&A session.

Speaker Change: Jack will now cover the Safe Harbor language.

Jonas Prising: This conference call includes forward-looking statements, including statements concerning economic and geopolitical uncertainty, which are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Such statements are based on management's current expectations or beliefs. Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statement. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement. Slide two of our earnings release presentation further identifies forward-looking statements made in this call and factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially and information regarding reconciliation of non-GAAP measures. Thank you, Jack.

John Thomas McGinnis: Good morning, everyone. This conference call includes forward-looking statements, including statements concerning economic and geopolitical uncertainty, which are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties.

Jack: These statements are based on management's current expectations or beliefs. Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.

Jack: We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Slide 2 of our earnings release presentation further identifies forward-looking statements made in this call and factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially and information regarding reconciliation of non-GAAP measures.

Jonas Prising: We are speaking with you today from our global headquarters in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. All eyes are on our city this week as it hosts one of the major events on the U.S. political calendar. Just a few days ago, we were pleased to welcome ambassadors from around the world to a breakfast event. During our time together, we discussed labor markets in the countries, particularly as many of them are undergoing shifts in the political landscape.

Speaker Change: Thank you, Jack. We are speaking with you today from our global headquarters in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. All eyes are on our city this week as it hosts one of the major events on the U.S. political calendar.

Speaker Change: Just a few days ago, we were pleased to welcome ambassadors from around the world to a breakfast event. During our time together, we discussed labor markets in the countries, particularly as many of them are undergoing shifts in the political landscape.

Jonas Prising: Based on these conversations and with business leaders worldwide, it is evident that we're in rapidly changing times. Geopolitical uncertainty persists, technology continues to advance, and the economic rulebook is still being rewritten post-pandemic. Yet, labor markets remain solid in many areas, with relatively low unemployment and layoff activity.

Speaker Change: Based on these conversations, and with business leaders worldwide, it is evident that we're in rapidly changing times. Geopolitical uncertainty persists, technology continues to advance, and the economic rulebook is still being rewritten post-pandemic.

Speaker Change: Still, labor markets remain solid in many areas, with relatively low unemployment and layoff activity.

Jonas Prising: Our most recent Employment Outlook survey of over 40,000 employers this spring found that hiring confidence is holding steady at lower levels compared to a year ago, as economic uncertainty continues to give employers pause, and economies in Europe and North America are gradually cooling, with inflation moderate. Many large enterprise clients are prioritizing hiring for the core skills they need and holding on to the skilled workers they have. At the same time, while the promise of AI is yet to be realized, it is front of mind for businesses across every industry. However, we are convinced that the potential of AI at scale will only be realized when it augments human capabilities.

Speaker Change: our most recent employment outlook survey of over 40,000 employers this spring.

Speaker Change: found that hiring confidence is holding steady at lower levels compared to a year ago, as economics uncertainty continues to give employers pause, and economies in Europe and North America are gradually cooling, with inflation moderating.

Speaker Change: Many large enterprise clients are prioritizing hiring for the core skills they need and holding on to the skilled workers they have.

Speaker Change: At the same time, while the promise of AI is yet to be realized, it is front of mind for businesses across every industry.

Speaker Change: We are convinced that the potential of AI at scale will only be realized when it augments human capabilities and skills.

Jonas Prising: Many companies recognize this need and are developing their current workforce while selectively adding new talent. Priority is placed on retaining and attracting workers with specialized flexible skills and an adaptable mindset to adjust to the evolving requirements in the workplace. This focus on workforce development to maximize potential is more evident now than ever.

Speaker Change: Many companies recognize this need and are developing their current workforce while selectively adding new talent. Priority is placed on retaining and attracting workers with specialized flexible skills and an adaptable mindset to adjust to the evolving requirements in the workplace.

Speaker Change: This focus on workforce development to maximize potential is more evident now than ever.

Jonas Prising: Our business operates at the intersection of worker preferences and employer priorities. Our research tells us that more than 6 in 10 believe AI and machine learning will have a positive impact on business performance, and 70% plan to boost upskilling efforts accordingly. Our surveys also tell us that 43% of workers feel neutral or negative about AI's impact on their jobs and future. We have an opportunity to guide both employers and workers through this moment of transformation. Through our partnerships with clients, we believe this is a significant opportunity for us, finding skilled talent and bridging the skills gaps across industries with our Manpower MyPath and Experis Academy training.

Speaker Change: Our business operates at the intersection of worker preferences and employer priorities.

Speaker Change: Our research tells us that more than 6 in 10 believe AI and machine learning will have a positive impact on business performance and 70% plan to boost upskilling efforts accordingly.

Speaker Change: Our surveys also tell us that 43% of workers feel neutral or negative about AI's impact on their jobs and futures.

Speaker Change: We have an opportunity to guide both employers and workers through this moment of transformation.

Speaker Change: Through our partnerships with clients, we believe this is a significant opportunity for us. Finding skilled talent and bridging the skills gaps across industries with our Manpower MyPath and Experis Academy training programs.

Jonas Prising: While we have seen a growing focus on workforce retention and development, we have not yet seen the inflection point of widespread demand improvement. But we have seen underlying soft staffing trends broadly stabilized in North America and in Europe, with Asia and Latin America continuing to hold up well. We're convinced that our focus on specialized skills in our manpower business is the right strategy, and early results demonstrate increased demand for mid-level skills within several key end market verticals such as automotive, aerospace, and logistics. Turning to our results, in the second quarter, revenue was $4.5 billion, down 3% year-over-year in constant current. The reported EBITDA for the quarter was $109 million.

Speaker Change: While we have seen a growing focus on workforce retention and development, we have not yet seen the inflection point of widespread demand improvement.

Speaker Change: But we have seen underlying soft staffing trends broadly stabilized in North America and Europe , with Asia and Latin America continuing to hold up well.

Speaker Change: We're convinced that our focus on specialized skills in our manpower business is the right strategy and early results demonstrate increased demand for mid-level skills within several key end-market verticals such as automotive, aerospace, and logistics.

Speaker Change: Turning to our results, in the second quarter, revenue was $4.5 billion, down 3% year-over-year in constant currency.

Speaker Change: A reported EBITDA for the quarter was $109 million. Adjusting for final runoff charges of our Preservia business in Germany, EBITDA was $112 million, representing a decrease of 9% in constant currency year over year.

Jonas Prising: Adjusting for final runoff charges related to our Proserbia business in Germany, EBITDA was $112 million, representing a decrease of 9% in constant currency year-over-year. Reported EBITDA margin was 2.4%, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 2.5%. Earnings per diluted share was $1.24 on a recorded basis, while earnings per diluted share was $1.30 on an adjusted basis. Adjusted earnings per share decreased 12% year-on-year in constant earnings.

Speaker Change: Reported EBITDA margin was 2.4% and adjusted EBITDA margin was 2.5%.

Speaker Change: Earnings per diluted share was $1.24 on a recorded basis, while earnings per diluted share was $1.30 on an adjusted basis.

Speaker Change: Adjusted earnings per share decreased 12% year-over-year in constant currency.

Jonas Prising: Although the environment continues to be challenging, our business and our people are resilient. Our diversified business mix and geographic footprint are serving us well. We're confident that our strategies are positioning us well for future profitable growth. We continue to reimagine our workflows and processes with the goal of enhancing our future productivity and ROI. And we continue to serve as an expert guide for our clients as they adapt to a changing environment. I'll now turn it over to Jack to take you through the results in more detail. Thanks, Jonas.

Speaker Change: Although the environment continues to be challenging, our business and our people are resilient. Our diversified business mix and geographic footprint are serving us well. We are confident that our strategies are positioning us well for future profitable growth.

Speaker Change: We continue to reimagine our workflows and processes with the goal to enhance our future productivity and ROI.

Speaker Change: And we continue to serve as an expert guide for our clients as they adapt to a changing environment.

Speaker Change: I'll now turn it over to Jack to take you through the results in more detail. Thanks, Jonas. Revenues in the second quarter came in slightly above the midpoint of our constant currency guidance range.

John Thomas McGinnis: Revenues in the second quarter came in slightly above the midpoint of our constant currency guidance. As adjusted, gross profit margin came in slightly below our guidance range and slightly lower than expected permanent recruitment activity. As adjusted, EBITDA was $112 million, representing a 9% decrease in constant currency compared to the prior year period.

Jack: As adjusted, gross profit margin came in slightly below our guidance range on slightly lower than expected permanent recruitment activity. As adjusted, EBITDA was $112 million, representing a 9% decrease in constant currency compared to the prior year period.

John Thomas McGinnis: As suggested, EBITDA margin was 2.5% and came in at the midpoint of our guidance range, representing 20 basis points of decline year-over-year. During the quarter, year-over-year foreign currency movements had an impact on our results. Foreign currency translation drove a 3.5% unfavorable impact on the U.S. dollar reported revenue trend, in addition to the constant currency decrease of 3%. Organic days adjusted, constant currency revenue decreased 4% in the quarter, in line with our guidance.

Speaker Change: As suggested, EBITDA margin was 2.5% and came in at the midpoint of our guidance range, representing 20 basis points of decline year-over-year.

Speaker Change: During the quarter, year-over-year foreign currency movements had an impact on our results. Foreign currency translation drove a 3.5% unfavorable impact to the U.S. dollar reported revenue trend, in addition to the constant currency decrease of 3%.

Speaker Change: Organic days adjusted, constant currency revenue decreased 4% in the quarter, in line with our guidance.

John Thomas McGinnis: Turning to the EPS bridge, reported net earnings per share were $1.24, which included six cents related to the runoff of our ProServi and Managed Services business in Germany. I am pleased to report the financial impact of the wind-down of the German-Proserbia business is now complete and will not impact our results in future quarters. Excluding the ProServia runoff costs, adjusted EPS was $1.30 and came in slightly above the midpoint of our guidance.

Speaker Change: Turning to the EPS bridge, reported net earnings per share was $1.24, which included 6 cents related to the runoff of our ProServi and Managed Services business in Germany.

Speaker Change: I am pleased to report the financial impact of the wind-down of the Germany-Proservia business is now complete and will not impact our results in future quarters.

Speaker Change: Excluding the ProServia runoff costs, adjusted EPS was $1.30 and came in slightly above the midpoint of our guidance range.

John Thomas McGinnis: Blocking from our guidance midpoint, our results included a stronger operational performance of $0.02, lower weighted average shares due to share repurchases in the quarter, which had a positive impact of $0.01, a higher tax rate on country mix, which had a negative impact of $0.03, for a currency impact that was one cent worse than our guidance, and interest and other expenses had a positive impact of two cents. Next, let's review our revenues by business line. Year over year, on an organic constant currency basis, the Manpower brand declined by 2% in the quarter, the Experience brand declined by 7%, and the Talent Solutions brand had a revenue decline of 9%.

Speaker Change: Blocking from our guidance midpoint, our results included a stronger operational performance of $0.02, lower weighted average shares due to share purchases in the quarter, which had a positive impact of $0.01, a higher tax rate on country mix, which had a negative impact of $0.03,

Speaker Change: For our currency impact, it was one cent worse than our guidance, and interest and other expenses had a positive impact of two cents.

Speaker Change: Next, let's review our revenues by business line. Year over year, on an organic constant currency basis, the Manpower brand declined by 2% in the quarter, the Experis brand declined by 7%, and the Talent Solutions brand had a revenue decline of 9%.

John Thomas McGinnis: With InTown Solutions, our RPO business experienced a year-over-year revenue decline, which was a slight improvement from the trend in the first quarter. Our MSP business revenues increased compared to the prior year period, reflecting sequential improvement from the first quarter trend. Meanwhile, right management also experienced year-over-year revenue growth on higher outplacement volumes in the quarter. Looking at our gross profit margin in detail, our gross margin came in at 17.4% for the

Speaker Change: With InTown Solutions, our RPO business experienced a year-over-year revenue decline, which was a slight improvement from the trend in the first quarter.

Speaker Change: Our MSP business revenues increased compared to the prior year period, reflecting sequential improvement from the first quarter trend, while right management also experienced year-over-year revenue growth on higher outplacement volumes in the quarter.

Speaker Change: Looking at our gross profit margin in detail, our gross margin came in at 17.4% for the quarter. Staffing margin contributed 10 basis point reduction due to mixed shifts and lower volumes, while pricing remained solid.

John Thomas McGinnis: Staffing margin contributed a 10 basis point reduction due to mixed shifts and lower volumes, while pricing remained solid. Permanent recruitment, including Talent Solutions RPO, contributed a 50 basis point GP margin reduction as permanent hiring activity in the second quarter decreased year over year. During the quarter, we saw a greater-than-expected slowing in permanent recruitment.

Speaker Change: Permanent recruitment, including Talent Solutions RPO, contributed a 50-basis point GP margin reduction as permanent hiring activity in the second quarter decreased year over year.

Speaker Change: During the quarter, we saw a greater-than-expected slowing in permanent recruitment, particularly in Europe , contributing to a slightly higher drag on our gross profit margin.

John Thomas McGinnis: Particularly in Europe, contributing to a slightly higher drag on our gross profit margin. Right management career transition within Talent Solutions contributed 10 basis points of improvement as outplacement activity continued to be solid in the second quarter. Other items resulted in a 10 basis point margin increase. Moving on, to our gross profit by business line. During the quarter, the Manpower brand comprised 60% of gross profit, our experienced professional business comprised 24%, and Town Solutions comprised 16%.

Speaker Change: Right management career transition within Talent Solutions contributed 10 basis points of improvement. His outplacement activity continued to be solid in the second quarter. Other items resulted in a 10 basis point margin increase.

Speaker Change: Moving on to our gross profit by business line. During the quarter, the Manpower brand comprised 60% of gross profit. Our experienced professional business comprised 24% and Town Solutions comprised 16%.

John Thomas McGinnis: During the quarter, our consolidated gross profit decreased by 6% on an organic constant currency basis year over year, representing an improvement from the 9% decline in the first quarter. Our Manpower brand reported an organic gross profit decrease of 4% in constant currency year over year, an improvement from the 6% decline in the first quarter. Gross profit in our experience brand decreased 7% in organic constant currency year over year, an improvement from the 16% decrease in the first quarter.

Speaker Change: During the quarter, our consolidated gross profit decreased by 6% on an organic consequency basis year-over-year, representing an improvement from the 9% decline in the first quarter.

Speaker Change: Our Manpower brand reported an organic gross profit decrease of 4% in constant currency year-over-year, an improvement from the 6% decline in the first quarter.

Speaker Change: Gross profit in our experience brand decreased 7% in organic constant currency year over year, an improvement from the 16% decrease in the first quarter.

John Thomas McGinnis: Cross profit and talent solutions decreased 11% in organic constant currency year over year, representing a stable trend from the first quarter. Although RPO volumes were slightly lower in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter, MFP delivered an improved GP trend from the first quarter, while right management achieved GP growth on solid outplacement activity. Reported FG&A expense in the quarter was $685 million.

Speaker Change: Post-profit and talent solutions decreased 11% in organic constant currency year over year, representing a stable trend from the first quarter.

Speaker Change: Although RPO volumes were slightly lower in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter, MFP delivered an improved GP trend from the first quarter, while right management achieved GP growth on solid outplacement activity.

Speaker Change: The reported SG&A expense in the quarter was $685 million. Excluding the runoff of our Germany pro serviette business, SG&A was 5% lower year-over-year on a constant currency basis.

John Thomas McGinnis: Excluding the runoff of our Germany-Proservia business, SG&A was 5% lower year-over-year on a constituency basis. This reflects an average organic headcount during Q2 that was an 11% reduction compared to the year earlier period. We expect our digitization strategy focused on streamlining back office functions will drive further cost efficiencies, and our corporate expenses reflect this investment. These strategic investments are progressing nicely and are expected to drive medium and long-term productivity and efficiency enhancements across our technology and finance functions worldwide from shared service centers leveraging leading global technology platforms.

Speaker Change: This reflects an average organic headcount during Q2 that was an 11% reduction compared to the year earlier period.

Speaker Change: We expect our digitization strategy, focused on transporting back office functions, will drive further cost efficiencies and our corporate expenses reflect this investment.

Speaker Change: These strategic investments are progressing nicely and are expected to drive medium and long-term productivity and efficiency enhancements across our technology and finance functions worldwide from shared service centers leveraging leading global technology platforms.

John Thomas McGinnis: The underlying year-over-year SG&A decreases largely consisted of reductions in operational costs of $36 million and currency changes of $20 million. Adjusted SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue represented 15% in constant currency in the second quarter. The final Pro Servia Germany runoff expense represented $2 million.

Speaker Change: The underlying year-over-year SG&A decreases largely consisted of reductions in operational costs of $36 million and currency changes of $20 million.

Speaker Change: Adjusted SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue represented 15% in constant currency in the second quarter. The final ProServia Germany runoff expense represented $2 million.

John Thomas McGinnis: The America segment comprised 24% of consolidated revenue. Revenue in the quarter was $1.1 billion, representing an increase of 5% compared to the prior year period on a constant currency basis. OUP was $45 million, and OUP margin was 4.2%. The U.S. is the largest country in the Americas segment, comprising 65% of segment revenue.

Speaker Change: The America segment comprised 24% of consolidated revenue. Revenue in the quarter was $1.1 billion, representing an increase of 5% compared to the prior year period on a consequency basis.

Speaker Change: OUP was $45 million and OUP margin was 4.2 percent.

Speaker Change: The U.S. is the largest country in the America segment, comprising 65% of segment revenues. Revenues in the U.S. was $697 million during the quarter, representing a 2% days-adjusted decrease compared to the prior year.

John Thomas McGinnis: Revenues in the U.S. were $697 million during the quarter, representing a 2% days-adjusted decrease compared to the prior year. OUP for our U.S. business was $27 million in the quarter, representing an increase of 16% after adjusting the prior year for minor restructuring costs. OUP's margin was 3.9 percent. Within the US, the Manpower brand comprised 24% of gross profit during the quarter. Revenue for the Manpower brand in the U.S. decreased 2% during the quarter, which was an improvement from the 13% decline in the first quarter. The Xperia brand in the U.S. comprised 47% of gross profit in the quarter.

Speaker Change: OUP for our U.S. business was $27 million in the quarter, representing an increase of 16% after adjusting the prior year for minor restructuring costs.

Speaker Change: OUP margin was 3.9%.

Speaker Change: Within the U.S., the Manpower brand comprised 24% of gross profit during the quarter. Revenue for the Manpower brand in the U.S. decreased 2% during the quarter, which was an improvement from the 13% decline in the first quarter.

Speaker Change: The Xperia brand in the U.S. comprises 47% of gross profit in the quarter. Within Xperia in the U.S., IT skills comprise approximately 90% of revenues.

John Thomas McGinnis: With inexperience in the U.S., IT skills comprise approximately 90% of revenue. Experienced U.S. revenue decreased 3% days adjusted during the quarter, an improvement from the 6% decline in the first quarter. The U.S. experience business experienced significant healthcare IT go-live project volumes in the second quarter that are not expected to recur into the third quarter. Now solutions in the US contributed 29% of gross profits and experienced a revenue decline of 2% in the quarter, stable from the 2% decline in the first quarter. RPO revenue declines in the U.S. reflected a further softening of permanent hiring programs in the second quarter compared to the first quarter.

Speaker Change: Xperia's U.S. revenue decreased 3% days adjusted during the quarter, an improvement from the 6% decline in the first quarter.

Speaker Change: The U.S. experience business experienced significant healthcare IT go-live project volumes in the second quarter that are not expected to recur into the third quarter.

Speaker Change: Found solutions in the U.S. contributed 29% of gross profits and experienced revenue decline of 2% in the quarter, stable from the 2% decline in the first quarter.

Speaker Change: RPO revenue declines in the U.S. reflected a further softening of permanent hiring programs in the second quarter compared to the first quarter.

John Thomas McGinnis: The U.S. MSP business accomplished a solid revenue increase, representing an improvement from the first quarter, while outplacement activity within our right management business experienced stable trends year over year. In the third quarter of 2024, we expect revenue decline to be slightly higher than the second quarter decline for our overall U.S. business, largely due to the completion of the Healthcare IT Go Live project in the second quarter. Southern Europe revenue comprised 46% of consolidated revenue in the quarter.

Speaker Change: The U.S. MSP business accomplished a solid revenue increase, representing an improvement from the first quarter, while outplacing activity within our right management business experienced stable trends year over year.

Speaker Change: In the third quarter of 2024, we expect revenue decline to be slightly higher than the second quarter decline for our overall U.S. business, largely due to the completion of the Healthcare IT Go Live projects in the second quarter.

Speaker Change: Southern Europe revenue comprised 46% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue in Southern Europe was $2.1 billion, representing a 4% decrease in constant currency.

John Thomas McGinnis: Revenue in Southern Europe was $2.1 billion, representing a 4% decrease in constant currency. OUP for our Southern Europe business was 83 million in the quarter, and OUP margin was 4%. France revenue comprised 56% of the Southern Europe segment in the quarter and decreased 6% in days adjusted constant currency.

Speaker Change: OUP for our Southern Europe business was $83 million in the quarter, and OUP margin was 4%.

Speaker Change: France revenue comprised 56% of the Southern Europe segment in the quarter and decreased 6% in days adjusted constant currency.

John Thomas McGinnis: OUP for our France business was $40 million in the quarter, representing a decrease of 18% on a concert currency basis. OUP's margin was 3.4%. Activity to date in July 2024 is largely consistent with trends experienced in the second quarter. We are estimating the year-over-year consecurrency revenue trend in the third quarter for France to reflect a slight improvement in the rate of decline from the second quarter trend based on the step down in the prior year period. Revenue in Italy equaled $435 million in the second quarter, reflecting a decrease of 4% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis.

Speaker Change: OUP for our France business was $40 million in the quarter, representing a decrease of 18% on a concert currency basis.

Speaker Change: OUP margin was 3.4 percent.

Speaker Change: Activity to date in July 2024 is largely consistent with trends experienced in the second quarter.

Speaker Change: We are estimating the year-over-year consecurrency revenue trend in the third quarter for France to reflect a slight improvement in the rate of decline from the second quarter trend based on the step down in the prior year period.

Speaker Change: Revenue in Italy equaled $435 million in the second quarter, reflecting a decrease of 4% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis.

John Thomas McGinnis: OUP equaled $34 million, and its OUP margin was 7.8%. We estimate that Italy will also have a slightly improved constant currency revenue trend in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. A Northern Europe segment comprised 18% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. However, revenue of $837 million represented a 12% decline in constant currency. As adjusted to exclude the runoff pro serviette Germany business, OUP was $1 million, and OUP margin was 0.1%. Our largest market in the Northern Europe segment is the UK, which represented 35% of segment revenues in the quarter.

Speaker Change: OUP equal $34 million, and OUP margin was 7.8%.

Speaker Change: We estimate that Italy will also have a slightly improved constant currency revenue trend in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.

Speaker Change: A Northern Europe segment comprised 18% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue of $837 million represented a 12% decline in constant currency.

Speaker Change: As adjusted to exclude the runoff pro-Soviet Germany business, OUP was $1 million, and OUP margin was 0.1%.

Speaker Change: Our largest market in the Northern Europe segment is the UK, which represented 35% of segment revenues in the quarter.

John Thomas McGinnis: During the quarter, U.K. revenues decreased 15% on a days-adjusted-consequency basis. This reflects a slight worsening in the rate of decline from the first quarter on the same basis. We expect a slightly improved rate of revenue decline in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. In Germany, revenues decreased 18% in days adjusted constant currency during the quarter.

Speaker Change: During the quarter, U.K. revenues decreased 15% on a days-adjusted-consequency basis.

Speaker Change: This reflects a slight worsening in the rate of decline from the first quarter on the same basis.

Speaker Change: We expect a slightly improved rate of revenue decline in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. In Germany, revenues decreased 18% in days adjusted constant currency in the quarter.

John Thomas McGinnis: Our German business revenue trend was impacted by select plant closures in the automotive sector during the second quarter. Additionally, as previously reported, the financial impact of the wind-down of our proservium managed service business in Germany was completed during the quarter. In the third quarter, we are expecting an improved year-over-year revenue decline compared to the second quarter. The Asia-Pacific and Middle East segment comprises 12% of total company revenue. In the quarter, revenues equaled $541 million, representing a decrease of 1% in constant currency.

Speaker Change: Our German business revenue trend was impacted by select plant closures in the automotive sector during the second quarter.

Speaker Change: As previously reported, the financial impact of the wind-down of our proservium managed service business in Germany was completed during the quarter.

Speaker Change: In the third quarter, we are expecting an improved year-over-year revenue decline compared to the second quarter.

Speaker Change: The Asia-Pacific Middle East segment comprises 12% of total company revenue.

Speaker Change: In the quarter, revenues equaled $541 million, representing a decrease of 1% in organic constant currency.

John Thomas McGinnis: OUP was $25 million, and OUP's margin was 4.6%. Our largest market in the APME segment is Japan, which represented 51% of segment revenues in the quarter. Revenue in Japan grew 9% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis.

Speaker Change: OUP was $25 million, and OUP margin was 4.6%.

Speaker Change: Our largest market in the APME segment is Japan.

Speaker Change: which represented 51% of segment revenues in the quarter. Revenue in Japan grew 9% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis.

John Thomas McGinnis: We remain very pleased with the consistent performance of our Japan business, and we expect continued strong revenue growth in the third quarter. I'll now turn to cash flow and the balance sheet. In the second quarter, similar to the prior year's seasonal dynamic, free cash flow represented an outflow of $150 million during the quarter.

Speaker Change: We remain very pleased with the consistent performance of our Japan business and we expect continued strong revenue growth in the third quarter.

Speaker Change: I'll now turn to cash flow and balance sheet. In the second quarter, similar to the prior year's seasonal dynamic, free cash flow represented an outflow of $150 million during the quarter. It compares to a cash outflow of $177 million in the prior year.

John Thomas McGinnis: It compares to a cash outflow of $177 million in the prior year. As in the prior year, the outflow was driven by the timing of payables and payments within our large MSP business. At quarter end, day sales outstanding decreased by about three days to 56 days. During the second quarter, capital expenditures represented $12 million.

Speaker Change: As in the prior year, the outflow was driven by the timing of payables and timing of payments within our large MSP business.

Speaker Change: At quarter end, day sales outstanding decreased by about three days to 56 days.

Speaker Change: During the second quarter, capital expenditures represented $12 million.

John Thomas McGinnis: During the second quarter, we repurchased 371,000 shares of stock for $27 million. As of June 30, we have 3.6 million shares remaining for repurchase under the share program approved in August of 2023. Our balance sheet ended the quarter with cash of $469 million and total debt of $1.1 billion. Net debt equals $630 million at quarter end.

Speaker Change: During the second quarter, we repurchased 371,000 shares of stock for $27 million.

Speaker Change: As of June 30th, we have 3.6 million shares remaining for repurchase under the share program approved in August of 2023.

Speaker Change: Our balance sheet ended the quarter with cash of $469 million and total debt of $1.1 billion.

Speaker Change: Net debt equals $630 million at quarter end.

John Thomas McGinnis: Our debt ratios at quarter end reflect total gross debt to trailing 12-months adjusted EBITDA of 2.3 and total debt to total capitalization at 34%. Our debt and credit facility arrangements remained unchanged during the quarter, as displayed in the appendix of this presentation. Next, I'll review our outlook for the third quarter of 2024. Based on trends in the second quarter and July activities to date, our forecast anticipates that the third quarter will continue to be challenging in North America and Europe. Our forecast for Q3 also anticipates ongoing low levels of permanent recruitment activity. With that said, we are forecasting earnings per share for the third quarter to be in the range of $1.25 to $1.35.

Speaker Change: Our debt ratios at quarter end reflect total gross debt to trailing 12-months adjusted EBITDA of 2.3 and total debt to total capitalization at 34%.

Speaker Change: Our debt and credit facility arrangements remain unchanged during the quarter, as displayed in the appendix of this presentation.

John Thomas McGinnis: The guidance range also includes an unfavorable foreign currency impact of $0.05 per share, and our foreign currency translation rate estimates are disclosed at the bottom of the guidance slide. Our constant currency revenue guidance range is between a decrease of 4% and flat, and at the midpoint, it is a 2% decrease. Although the impact of net dispositions is slight, there are slightly more working days in the third quarter this year, contributing to a 1% additional decrease on an organic days-adjusted constant currency basis, representing a 3% decrease at the midpoint.

Speaker Change: Next, I'll reveal our outlook for the third quarter of 2024. Based on trends in the second quarter and July activity to date, our forecast anticipates that the third quarter will continue to be challenging in North America and Europe .

Speaker Change: Our forecast for Q3 also anticipates ongoing low levels of permanent recruitment activity.

Speaker Change: With that said, we are forecasting earnings per share for the third quarter to be in the range of $1.25 to $1.35.

Speaker Change: The guidance range also includes an unfavorable foreign currency impact of $0.05 per share, and our foreign currency translation rate estimates are disclosed at the bottom of the guidance slide.

Speaker Change: Our constant currency revenue guidance range is between a decrease of 4% and flat, and at the midpoint is a 2% decrease.

Speaker Change: Although the impact of net dispositions is slight, there are slightly more working days in the third quarter this year, contributing to 1% additional decrease on an organic days-adjusted constant currency basis, representing a 3% decrease at the midpoint.

John Thomas McGinnis: This represents a slight improvement compared to the second quarter trend on the same day. Even the margin for the third quarter is projected to be flat at the midpoint compared to the prior year. We estimate that the effective tax rate for the third quarter will be 34 percent, which reflects the overall mixed effect of lower earnings from lower tax geographies in the current environment.

Speaker Change: This represents a slight improvement compared to the second quarter trend on the same basis.

Speaker Change: Even the margin for the third quarter is projected to be flat at the midpoint compared to the prior year.

Speaker Change: We estimate that the effective tax rate for the third quarter will be 34%, which reflects the overall mixed effect of lower earnings from lower tax geographies in the current environment.

John Thomas McGinnis: As usual, our guidance does not incorporate restructuring charges or additional share purchases, and we estimate our weighted average shares to be $48.5 million. Our guidance also does not include the impact of a non-cash hyperinflationary balance sheet related currency translation adjustment for our Argentina business, and we will report that separately if it is a meaningful amount. I will now turn it back to Jonas.

Speaker Change: As usual, our guidance does not incorporate restructuring charges or additional share purchases, and we estimate our weighted average shares to be $48.5 million.

Speaker Change: Our guidance also does not include the impact of non-cash hyperinflationary balance sheet related currency translation adjustment for our Argentina business, and we will report that separately if it is a meaningful amount.

Speaker Change: I will now turn it back to Jonas.

Jonas Prising: Thank you, guys. We are committed to adjusting our portfolio, managing costs while making strategic investments in areas we predict will shift the needle. We remain confident in our diversification, digitization, and innovation strategy, and are making good progress. For digitization, we see the potential for AI to produce new workflows, streamline processes, and improve the candidate experience.

Jonas Prising: Thank you, Jack.

Jonas Prising: We are committed to adjusting our portfolio, managing costs while making strategic investments in areas we predict will shift the needle. We remain confident in our diversification, digitization, and innovation strategy, and are making good progress.

Jonas Prising: In digitization, we see the potential for AI to produce new workflows, streamline processes, and improve the candidate's experience.

Jonas Prising: We're already making progress in these efforts with pilots in our recruiter platforms where we're integrating Gen-AI prompts and taking a learn, adapt, and scale-up approach. Our rich global data will fuel better insights for our clients and candidates, and the work we're doing to consolidate data globally and reskill workers in the age of AI is a critical step in building a foundation that is future-fit. We know our clients value our expertise in this area and turn to us for guidance. In May, we showcased our innovations at Viva Tech in Paris, the premier European tech and startup conference.

Jonas Prising: We're already making progress in these efforts with pilots in our recruiter platforms where we're integrating Gen-AI prompts and taking a learn, adapt, and scale approach.

Jonas Prising: Our rich global data will fuel better insights for our clients and candidates, and the work we're doing to consolidate data globally and re-skill workers in the age of AI is a critical step in building a foundation that is future-fit. We know our clients value our expertise in this area and turn to us for guidance.

Jonas Prising: In May, we showcased our innovations at Viva Tech in Paris, the premier European tech and startup conference.

Jonas Prising: Over 100 clients visited our Manpower Group France headquarters to discuss the transformation of recruiting and how human capabilities are at the heart of how the future of work will evolve in the AI era. We know clients choose to work with us because our strong brand, Manpower, Experts, and Talent Solutions are proven global leaders. In June, Talent Solutions was named a Global Leader in Recruitment Process Outsourcing by the Evers Group for the 14th year in a row.

Jonas Prising: Over 100 clients visited our ManpowerGroup France headquarters to discuss the transformation of recruiting and how human capabilities are at the heart of how the future of work will evolve in the AI era.

Jonas Prising: We know clients choose to work with us because our strong brand, manpower, experience and talent solutions are proven global leaders.

Jonas Prising: In June , Talent Solutions was named a Global Leader in Recruitment Process Outsourcing by Everest Group for the 14th year. Everest recognized our strong vision and strategy, the quality of our recruiters, and continued investment in innovation.

Jonas Prising: Everest recognized our strong vision and strategy, the quality of our recruiters, and continued investment in innovation. While consecutive recognitions prove that we are consistent in the quality of our services and delivery strength, new accolades show we are committed to pushing ourselves to achieve more. Recently, we were named by Time Magazine as the world's most sustainable company, the only company or industry to be recognized and in the top 10 for professional services.

Jonas Prising: While consecutive recognitions prove that we are consistent in the quality of our services and delivery strength, new accolades show we are committed to pushing ourselves to achieve more.

Jonas Prising: Recently, we were named by Time Magazine as the world's most sustainable company, the only company or industry to be recognized and in the top ten for professional services.

Jonas Prising: For us, Sustainability is not a trend or a marketing slogan; it is about growing our business and partnership with our clients while helping people be successful and also caring for the planet, which is vital for our shared future prosperity.

Jonas Prising: For us.

Jonas Prising: Sustainability is not a trend or a marketing slogan. It's about growing our business in partnership with our clients, while helping people be successful and also caring for the planet which is vital for our shared future prosperity.

Jonas Prising: Job seekers, clients, and partners choose to work with us because of these values, and this recognition is a result of our sustainability champions data-driven approach worldwide as we strive for more transparent reporting and higher global standards year after year. With that, I'd like to close by thanking our clients, candidates, and investors for placing their trust in us and our people for dedicating their time and skills. Operator, please open the line for Q&A. Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star 11. If your question has been answered and you'd like to remove yourself from the queue, please press star 11 again.

Jonas Prising: Jobseekers, clients, and partners choose to work with us because of these values, and this recognition is a result of our sustainability champions' data-driven approach worldwide as we strive for more transparent reporting and higher global standards year after year.

Speaker Change: With that, I'd like to close by thanking our clients, candidates, and investors for placing their trust in us, and our people for dedicating their time and skills to us. Operator, please open the line for Q&A.

Speaker Change: Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 11.

Speaker Change: If your question has been answered and you'd like to remove yourself from the queue, please press star 11 again.

Operator: Our first question comes from Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open. Thanks so much.

Speaker Change: Our first question comes from Jeff Silber with BMO Cattle Markets. Your line is open.

Jonas Prising: I wanted to start focusing first on the U.S. You talked about some of the trends, second quarter versus the third quarter. I know you highlighted Go Live Projects and Experience, that out, relatively flattish, at least on a year-over-year comparison. Can we just get a little bit more color on what's going on in the U.S. in terms of the underlying growth there? Good morning, Jeff.

Jeffrey Marc Silber: Thanks so much. I wanted to start focusing first on the U.S. You talked about some of the trends.

Jeffrey Marc Silber: in the second quarter versus the third quarter. I know you highlighted, you know, kind of the go-live project and experience. If I take that out, it looks like the trends will be relatively flattish, at least on a year-over-year comparative basis.

Speaker Change: Can we just get a little bit more color, what's going on in the U.S. in terms of the underlying growth there, what your customers are saying, etc.?

Jonas Prising: Yes, we're very pleased to see the U.S. come in a bit better in the second quarter. But, as you correctly point out, the underlying activities as we project into the third quarter really emphasize stability. And, you know, we had some good movement in manpower and experience and also in talent solutions in the U.S. And you know, we expect that stability to continue. We don't see this at the time as an inflection point.

Speaker Change: Good morning, Jeff. Yes, we were very pleased to see the U.S. come in a bit better in the second quarter, but as you correctly point out, the underlying activities as we project into the third quarter really emphasizes stability.

Speaker Change: And, you know, we had some good movement in manpower and experience and also in talent solutions in the U.S., and, you know, we expect that stability to continue. We don't see this at the time of a, as an inflection point.

Jonas Prising: But broadly, seeing stabilization is positive because we feel that, you know, the markets have stabilized and that we are able to get some new opportunities in the market, although demand still remains soft in the U.S. All right, great. Now, I could shift over to this worldwide term.

Speaker Change: But broadly seeing stabilization is positive because we feel...

Speaker Change: that, you know, the markets have stabilized.

Speaker Change: then that we are able to get some new opportunities in the market although demand still remains soft in the U.S.

Speaker Change: All right, great. If I could shift over to just worldwide PERM. You specifically focused on some of the PERM weakness in Europe . Maybe we can get a little bit more color what's going on there, and are you seeing anything similar in PERM in North America? Thanks.

Jonas Prising: Transcribed by https://otter.ai, We are also seeing stabilization in PERM in North America and in the U.K. as well. But broadly, I would say PERM has come down a little bit more, so it's slightly softer in the second quarter than it was in the first quarter. And when you think about it, it's really playing out in terms of the industry and market dynamics the way you'd expect. Employer confidence is still fragile, and that means hiring will come down slightly, and they will prioritize when resources are needed, temporary staffing for manpower, or having additional IT consultants for experience. So you can see that the staffing business across our brands is holding up better than PERM. And Jeff, this is Jack. I would just add to that... progress in PERM.

Speaker Change: We are seeing stabilization also in PERM in North America and in the UK as well.

Speaker Change: But broadly, I would say PERM has come down a little bit more, so it's slightly softer in the second quarter than it was in the first quarter. And when you think about it,

Speaker Change: It's really playing out in terms of the industry and market dynamics the way you'd expect. Employer confidence.

Speaker Change: is still fragile, and that means hiring will come down.

Speaker Change: Slightly, and they will prioritize, when resources are needed, temporary staffing for manpower or having additional IT consultants for experience.

Speaker Change: So, you can see that the staffing business across our brands is holding up better than per.

Speaker Change: And Jeff, this is Jack, I would just add to that...

John Thomas McGinnis: As we ended the first quarter, we saw that PERM was stronger in Europe, and I'd say the development during the second quarter was we saw Europe, particularly, coming down a bit softer on PERM. And I'd say the two markets I would call out where it did soften noticeably sequentially would be France and Italy, two of our larger businesses where we have good PERM activities. But as Jonas said, I think the U.S. was more in line with our expectations in terms of PERM, but I'd say in Europe it was a bit. I appreciate the call. Thank you. Our next question comes from Kartik Mehta with North Coast Research. Your line is open. Hey, good morning.

Jack: Thank you for coming.

Speaker Change: Progressive Perm. As we ended the first quarter, we saw that Perm was stronger in Europe , and I'd say the development during the second quarter was we saw Europe particularly coming down a bit softer in Perm. And I'd say the two markets I would call out where it did soften

Speaker Change: Noticeably, sequentially, I would say would be France and Italy, two of our larger businesses where we have good perm activities. But as Jonas said, I think the U.S. was more in line with our expectations in terms of perm, but I'd say in Europe it was a bit softer.

Speaker Change: I appreciate the call. Thanks so much.

Speaker Change: Thank you. Our next question comes from Kartik Mehta with North Coast Research.

Speaker Change: Your line is open.

Jonas Prising: I wanted to ask a little bit about the pricing environment. I think you indicated that it's still stable. And one, are you at all surprised that the market is still stable considering the pressure that's been on revenue? And I'm also wondering, on the permanent side, if you're seeing any kind of pricing pressure. Good morning, Kartik.

Kartik Mehta: Hey, good morning. I wanted to ask a little bit about the pricing environment. I think you indicated that it's still stable. And one, are you at all surprised that the market is still stable considering the pressure that's put on revenue?

Speaker Change: And I'm also wondering, on the permanent side, if you're seeing any kind of pricing pressure.

Jonas Prising: I would say that pricing remains rational because it's always a competitive environment. And the reason we think pricing remains stable is that the underlying labor markets remain solid in almost all of the geographies where we operate. So, demand and access to talent are still restrained to some degree, and we have seen, of course, a moderation in wage inflation across the geographies. But the pricing environment and the attractiveness of talent means that we've been able to maintain our pricing discipline, and as I mentioned, it is rational overall. We also see price rationality and stability reflected in our fees on the perm side.

Speaker Change: Good morning, Kartik. I would say that pricing remains rational. It's always a competitive environment and the reason we think pricing remains stable is that the underlying labor markets remain solid in almost all of the geographies where we operate.

Speaker Change: So, demand and access to talent is still restrained to some degree and we have seen a moderation of course in wage inflation across the geographies.

Speaker Change: But...

Speaker Change: The pricing environment and the...

Speaker Change: attractiveness of talent.

Speaker Change: means that we've been able to maintain our pricing discipline.

Speaker Change: And, as I mentioned, it is rational overall. We also see that price rationality and stability reflected in our fees on the perm side.

Jonas Prising: It's just that demand for permanent placements is down, and we can see that as an effect of both weakness on the demand side, and as Jack had just mentioned, most of that weakness, the softening we saw came out of Europe. But we've also seen it from a candidate perspective, so candidates are less open to changing, so it takes us longer to move candidates into opportunities, and that's really just a reflection of a degree of uncertainty about And then just your perspective on France, obviously, elections occurred there, a little bit of a change in the political environment.

Speaker Change: It's just that demand for the perm placements...

Speaker Change: is down. And, you know, we can see that as an effect of both.

Speaker Change: Weakness on the demand side.

Jack: And as Jack had just mentioned, most of that weakness, you know, the softening we saw came out of Europe . But we've also seen it from a candidate perspective.

Speaker Change: So candidates are less open to changing, so it takes us longer to move candidates into the opportunities, and that's really just a reflection of

Jack: [inaudible]

Speaker Change: And then, just your perspective on France, obviously elections occurred there, a little bit of a change in the political environment, and then the Olympics. I'm wondering if either of those...

Jonas Prising: And then the Olympics. I'm wondering if either of those are going to have an impact on your business or your outlook on the impact on business because of that. Well, first, I'd like to say, Kartik, we have elections happening all the time.

Speaker Change: are going to have an impact on your business or, you know, your outlook on the impact on the business because of those things.

Jonas Prising: Of course, this year, we have a lot of elections going on in various parts of the world. And, you know, we have a great track record of being able to work with whatever color or version of politics is eventually represented in the government. Clearly, the situation in France is somewhat different because France will either have an interim government that is managing through a split assembly, a minority government that is, you know, looking for support either from the extreme left or from the extreme right, or a broader majority government that's a coalition of, you know, a little bit of the left, center, as well as the right.

Speaker Change: Well, first, I'd like to say, Kartik, we have elections happening all the time. Of course, in this year, we have a lot of elections going on in various parts of the world. And, you know, we have a great track record of being able to work with whatever, whatever color or version of politics is eventually represented in the government.

Speaker Change: Clearly, the situation in France is somewhat different because France will either have an interim government that is managing through a split assembly, a minority government that is looking for support either from the extreme left or from the extreme right.

Speaker Change: or a broader majority government that's a coalition of, you know, a little bit of left

Jonas Prising: And that causes some uncertainty in France. And the area where we see that mostly reflected is going to be in permanent hiring. And we saw some of that already emerge.

Speaker Change: as well as Wright. And that causes some uncertainty in France. And the area where we see that mostly reflected is going to be in perm hiring.

Jonas Prising: But by the same token, when employers need talent, then they will look for other, more flexible options. And I think that's also what we're seeing in France. So it is an environment that is a little bit different in the short term. But we don't think it's going to have an impact. We're not at this point too concerned with any legislative ideas that may come.

Speaker Change: And we saw some of that already emerge. But by the same token, when employers need talent, then they will look for other more flexible options.

Speaker Change: And I think that's also what we're seeing.

Speaker Change: So it is an environment that is a little bit different in the short term. We don't think it's going to have an impact.

Speaker Change: We're not at this point too concerned with any

Speaker Change: legislation ideas that that may come. We think the issue in France is mostly

Jonas Prising: We think the issue in France is mostly uncertainty about which direction the country is going. In the short term, we think this is manageable. And then once a new government is established, we'll better understand the policies that they will pursue, you know; then we'll know a bit more. And as to the Olympics, you know, I think we could expect a little bit of a little bit of support there and that it could be a little bit of a bump for French activity. But remember, the Olympics are really impacting the greater Paris region only for three weeks.

Speaker Change: uncertainty on which direction the country is going. Short-term we think this is manageable and then once a new government is established we better understand the policies that they will pursue, you know, then we'll know a bit more.

Speaker Change: And as to the Olympics, you know, I think we could expect...

Speaker Change: a little bit of support there, and that it could be a little bit of a bump for a French activity. But remember, the Olympics are really impacting the greater Paris region only, and it's only for three weeks.

Jonas Prising: So while we could expect to see an increase in activity, we think it's going to be relatively limited. Thank you so much. I appreciate it. Thanks, Karp. Thank you. Our next question comes from Mark Marcon with BEARS. Your line is open. Hey, good morning.

Speaker Change: So, while we could expect to see an increase in activity, we think it's going to be relatively limited.

Speaker Change: Thank you so much. I appreciate it.

Coffey: Thanks, Karthik.

Speaker Change: Thank you. Our next question comes from Mark Marcon with Bayer. Your line is open.

Jonas Prising: Thanks for taking my questions. With regard to Xperis, we did see some improvement in terms of the year-over-year decline in the U.S., going from 6% to 3%, but you did mention that it was driven by this big healthcare project, which is coming down. So if we strip out that big healthcare project, what's the underlying trend, and how are you feeling about the Xperis business, both in the U.S. and then globally? Thanks, Mark.

Mark Steven Marcon: Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. With regards to Xperis, you know, we did see some improvement in terms of the year-over-year.

Mark Steven Marcon: decline in the U.S. in terms of going from six percent to three, but you did mention that it was it was driven by this, you know, big health care project which is coming down. So if we strip out that big health care project

Speaker Change: What's the underlying trend and how are you feeling about the experience business, both in the U.S. and globally?

Jonas Prising: Overall, we feel very good about how Xperia is positioned. And, of course, seeing that underlying stability in two of our biggest markets, the UK and, especially, in the US, we see a positive based on the headwinds that we've seen now in the sector and especially from enterprise clients over the last 12 to 15 months. You know, we feel good about how we are positioned, especially with convenience clients, so small to medium-sized companies appear to be holding up a little bit better.

Speaker Change: Thanks, Mark. Overall, we feel very good about how Xperia is positioned.

Speaker Change: And, of course, you know...

Speaker Change: seeing that underlying stability in two of our biggest markets in the UK and notably in the US.

Speaker Change: We see a positive based on, you know, the headwinds that we've seen now in the sector and especially from enterprise clients over the last 12 to 15 months.

Speaker Change: You know, we feel good about how we are positioned, especially with convenience clients, so small to medium-sized companies, they appear to be holding up a little bit better.

Jonas Prising: And demand is a little bit better on that side. But overall, as we look at the market and the demand situation, we think it's pretty stable in Q2. And we're projecting that stability coming through also into the third quarter.

Speaker Change: and demand is a little bit better on that side.

Speaker Change: But overall, as we look at the market and the demand situation, we think it's pretty stable in Q2, and we're projecting that stability coming through also into the third quarter. So overall, stability in the U.S. with opportunities that you saw us take advantage of in the second quarter.

Jonas Prising: So overall stability in the US, with opportunities that you saw us take advantage of in the second quarter, projecting the same underlying stability into Q3. Xperia is globally stable, with the UK stabilizing and other markets stabilizing as well. We think this is positive. And we've also seen, you know, enterprise demand stabilized at a lower level because that was the main driver of the significant declines that we saw last year. So we have a point where we believe employers and our clients are pleased with where they are.

Speaker Change: projecting, you know, the same underlying stability into Q3.

Speaker Change: experience globally with the UK stabilizing and other markets

Speaker Change: stabilizing as well we think is positive.

Speaker Change: And we've also seen, you know, the enterprise demand stabilize at a lower level because that was the main driver of the significant declines that we saw last year. So, we have a point where we believe the employers and our clients

Speaker Change: are pleased with where they are, a little bit in a wait-and-see position, and we are very well positioned to take advantage of an improvement in demand.

Jonas Prising: And we are very well positioned to take advantage of an improvement in demand. And Mark, I would just add, you know, in terms of the impact it had on rates, the trend in the revenue trend for Xperia in Q2, you mentioned down about 3% days adjusted, I think it was down about 2% rounded on a constant currency basis. Healthcare IT was better than we expected.

Mark Steven Marcon: And Mark, I would just add, you know, in terms of the impact it had on the rate, the trend in the revenue trend for experience in Q2,

Mark Steven Marcon: You know, you mentioned down about 3% days adjusted. I think it was down about 2% rounded on a constant currency basis. The healthcare IT was better than we expected. It was strong in Q1. It was even stronger in Q2. It was probably about 2% to 3%.

John Thomas McGinnis: It was strong in Q1, and it was even stronger in Q2. It was probably about two to three times the underlying trend. And if you take that out, it would have been in line with what we were guiding for because we didn't anticipate as much of the healthcare IT, so that was a benefit for us. So that kind of helps you in terms of determining what it would have been without that.

Speaker Change: of the underlying trend. And if you take that out, it would have been in line with what we were guiding for because we didn't anticipate as much of the healthcare IT, so that was a benefit for us.

Jonas Prising: So that kind of helps you in terms of determining what it would have been without that, but as Jonas said, I think once you take it out, our guide was anticipating stable underlying trends, healthcare IT helped lift it further, but if you take that out, I think the business is fairly stable at this point.

John Thomas McGinnis: But as Jonas said, I think once you take it out, our guide was anticipating stable underlying trends. Healthcare IT helped lift it further. But if you take that out, I think the business is fairly stable. Great. And then, Jack, this is a question I always have.

Jonas Prising: Great. And then, can you, Jack, this is a question I always have, is this...

John Thomas McGinnis: PERM is a percentage of gross profit. Where does that come in? And how are you thinking about that for the third quarter? Because it does sound like PERM, particularly with the changes in France, the UK, Italy, in terms of what you're seeing, it might be a little bit lower. So I was just wondering if you could help us there. Sure, PERM as a percentage of total GP was 15.7% in Q2, Mark, and I know we talked about that last quarter. It was a bit higher last quarter, about 16 and a half, just above 16 and a half. And that's because the first quarter is always a seasonal low point for staffing GP, so it just averages in a bit higher.

Jack: PIRM is a percentage of gross profit. Where does that come in? And how are you thinking about that for the third quarter? Because it does sound like PIRM, particularly with the changes in France, the UK, Italy, in terms of what you're seeing, it might be a little bit lower. So I was just wondering if you could help us there.

Jack: Sure. PERM as a percentage of total GP was 15.7% in Q2, Mark.

Speaker Change: And I know we talked about that last quarter, it was a bit higher last quarter, about...

Speaker Change: 16 and a half, just above 16 and a half.

Speaker Change: And that's because the first quarter is always a seasonal low point for staffing GP, so it just averages in a bit higher.

John Thomas McGinnis: But I would say on an overall basis, PERM dollars trended sequentially slightly lower than they were in Q1, a bit lower in Europe versus our expectations, but as we think about that, 15.7% for Q2, I think that range of about 15 and a half is a reasonable range based on what Jonas was referring to in terms of stable trends into the third quarter. So I would use that as a bit of an expectation going forward. Great

Speaker Change: But I would say on an overall basis, PERM dollars trended sequentially slightly lower than they were in Q1, a bit lower in Europe versus our expectations. But as we think about that,

Speaker Change: 15.7% for Q2. I think that range of about 15 and a half is a reasonable range based on what Jonas was referring to in terms of stable trends into the third quarter. So I would use that as a bit of an expectation going forward.

John Thomas McGinnis: And then lastly, Germany, you've wound up, you've wound down pro-Serbia. How should we think about Northern Europe, you know, the margins? Let's say that things remain relatively stable, you know, for at least the next few quarters. How should we think about, you know, the underlying improvement in terms of OUP out of Northern Europe? Northern Europe, Mark, as you know, is one of the areas where we're seeing the most pressure at the moment. So I'd say the current indication is really a bit of a low point based on that pressure.

Speaker Change: Great, and then lastly...

Speaker Change: Germany, you've wound up, you've wound down pro-Serbia. How should we think about Northern Europe ?

Speaker Change: Let's say that things remain relatively stable for at least the next few quarters, how should we think about the underlying improvement in terms of OUP out of northern Europe ?

Mark Steven Marcon: Northern Europe , Mark, as you know, is one of the areas where we're seeing the most pressure at the moment. So, I'd say the current indication...

John Thomas McGinnis: And I think, as we reported, you saw that the Nordics continue to be an area where we're seeing some of the highest degree of pressure year over year. The UK certainly continues to be one of those markets as well. But to your point and to your question, I think we talked about ProServia being a drag of about $7 million to our consolidated results.

Mark Steven Marcon: is really a bit of a low point based on the pressure. And I think as we reported...

Speaker Change: You saw that the Nordics continue to be an area where we're seeing some of the highest degree of pressure year-over-year, the UK.

Mark Steven Marcon: certainly continues to be one of those markets as well. But to your point and to your question,

Mark Steven Marcon: You know, I think we talked about ProServia in the first quarter was a drag of about $7,000,000 to our consolidated...

John Thomas McGinnis: Now that that is removed, that gives you a bit of an indication of the opportunity here, if you think about it from a run rate perspective in terms of the impact that it had on the drag of our German operations, the drag of our Northern Europe segment on an overall basis. So I think it removes a pretty significant drag that we had in the business. We feel really good about our Germany, about the prospects for our German business going forward. It's performing fairly well in the automotive sector today. Germany, of course, is seeing some overall manufacturing weakness.

Mark Steven Marcon: results. Now that that is removed, that gives you a bit of an indication of the opportunity here, if you think about that from a run rate perspective, in terms of the impact that had on the drag of our Germany operations, the drag of our northern Europe .

Mark Steven Marcon: segment on an overall basis. So I think it removes a pretty significant drag that we had in the business. We feel really good about our Germany, about the prospects for our Germany business going forward.

Mark Steven Marcon: It's performing fairly well in the automotive sector today. Germany, of course, is seeing some overall manufacturing weakness, but I think

Mark Steven Marcon: And based on the relative trends in terms of the industry overall, I think we feel good about our opportunities in Germany. So as we go forward, it removes a pretty significant drag and will move northern Europe back to profitability. Once we continue to ease out of this slump that we're in currently and we start to see more traditional trends.

John Thomas McGinnis: But based on the relative trends in terms of the industry overall, I think we feel good about our opportunities in Germany. So as we go forward, it removes a pretty significant drag and will move Northern Europe back to profitability. Once we continue to ease out of this slump that we're in currently, and we start to see more traditional trends reemerge for manufacturing, and so forth. And so Northern Europe will be able to surpass where it was on profitability before the downturn as we go forward. Great, thank you.

Mark Steven Marcon: reemerged for manufacturing and so forth. And so Northern Europe will be able to surpass where we've been on profitability before the downturn as we as we go forward.

Mark Steven Marcon: Great, thank you.

John Thomas McGinnis: Thank you. Our next question comes from Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Your line is open. Hi, thanks for taking my question. This is Princy Thomas on behalf of Manav.

Speaker Change: Thank you. Our next question comes from Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Your line is open.

John Thomas McGinnis: I just wanted to see if you could talk further about what's driving the greater than expected slowing in perm recruitment, and specifically, if there's any specific verticals that are impacted more than others that you'd call out. Princy, thanks for the question. Really, it is pretty straightforward.

Princy Mariyam Thomas: Hi, thanks for taking my question. This is Princy Thomas on Furmana.

Princy Mariyam Thomas: I just wanted to see if you could talk further about what's driving the greater than expected slowing in perm recruitment, and specifically if there's any specific verticals that are impacted more than others that you'd call out.

John Thomas McGinnis: As I mentioned, Europe, I'd say the PERM softening in Q2 was really more pronounced in Europe. As we ended Q1, Europe was stronger in PERM, and that really started to reverse in the second quarter. So the two bigger markets for us where we saw PERM edge down slightly sequentially would be France and Italy. Those really were the main drivers.

Speaker Change: Princy, thanks for the question. Really it is pretty straightforward as I mentioned. Europe , I'd say the perm softening

Richie: in Q2 was really more pronounced in Europe . As we ended Q1, Europe was stronger in PERM.

Richie: And that really started to reverse in the second quarter. So, the two bigger markets for us where we saw PERM

Richie: Edgedown, slightly sequentially, I would say would be France and Italy.

Richie: Those really were the main drivers. From a sector perspective, I think, you know, as Jonas mentioned, more broadly,

John Thomas McGinnis: From a sector perspective, I think, you know, as Jonas mentioned, more broadly, in countries like France, we saw a bit of a broader pullback in PERM. I wouldn't say it's isolated to any specific sector. I think it's more employer confidence, and he talked about the election uncertainty being a bit of a dampener as well. So that's what I would say. I think that's the main driver. I wouldn't necessarily call out any specific change from an industry perspective over the last quarter. Got it, thanks.

Jonas Prising: In countries like France, we saw a bit of a broader pullback in PERM. I wouldn't say it's isolated to any specific sector. I think it's more employer confidence. And he talked about the election uncertainty being a bit of a dampener as well.

Speaker Change: So, that's what I would say. I think that's the main drivers. I wouldn't necessarily call out any specific change from an industry perspective over the last quarter.

John Thomas McGinnis: And any intra-quarter trends around enterprise tech and the financial staffing sector that you'd call out? No, I think from a sector perspective, Princy, I think, Generally, the trends that we talked about last quarter are, for the most part, holding kind of in line with the trends in terms of stability overall. What that means in the scheme of things is that the auto industry continues to be more solid. Although it has been leveling off a bit, it is still holding up better than the rest of manufacturing.

Speaker Change: Got it, thanks. And any intraportal trends around enterprise tech and financial staffing sector that you'd call out?

Speaker Change: No, I think from a sector perspective, Princy, I think...

Princy Mariyam Thomas: Generally, the trends that we talked about last quarter are, for the most part, holding.

Princy Mariyam Thomas: kind of in line with the...

Speaker Change: Transcripts provided by Transcription Outsourcing, LLC.

John Thomas McGinnis: I would say the manufacturing sector, ex-auto, continues to be much more sluggish. To your point, enterprise tech, although it has stabilized, it continues to be an area of very sluggish demand and running at stable levels but lower levels, of course, overall. I think maybe the last one to your point, financial services. Although financial services were a bit of a strength from a sector perspective a year ago, towards the end of 2023 and here in the first half of 2024, we've seen financial services pull back a bit.

Speaker Change: I would say the manufacturing sector ex-auto continues to be much more sluggish.

Speaker Change: and to your point, Enterprise Tech, although it has stabilized.

Speaker Change: It continues to be an area of very sluggish demand and running at stable levels, but lower levels, of course, overall. And I think maybe the last one, to your point, financial services. Although financial services was a bit of a strength from a sector perspective a year ago,

Speaker Change: Towards the end of 2023 and here in the first half of 2024, we've seen financial services pull back.

John Thomas McGinnis: Financial services has been trending a bit weaker. With that being said, I think, as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, one area that has been a strength is healthcare IT. We certainly saw that in the U.S. business in the first half of this year. Maybe one other one would be aerospace has been strong in Europe, in France particularly, but I'd say that's pretty much the roundup from a sector perspective. I appreciate the caller.

Speaker Change: a bit. So financial services has been trending a bit weaker. With that being said, I think as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, one area that has been a strength is healthcare IT, and we certainly saw that in the U.S. business in the first half of this year.

Speaker Change: Maybe one other one would be aerospace has been strong in Europe , in France particularly, but I'd say that's pretty much the roundup from a sector perspective.

Speaker Change: Appreciate the call.

John Thomas McGinnis: Thanks. Our next question comes from Josh Chan with UBS. Your line is open.

Speaker Change: Thank you. Our next question comes from Josh Chan with UBS. Your line is open.

Jonas Prising: Hi, good morning, Jonas and Jack. Thanks for taking my questions. I was just wondering if you could speak broadly about the trends in Europe. I think kind of going into the quarter, there were some concerns that maybe there would be some incremental softening in Europe in the second half, but it sounds like from your guidance for Q3, France, Italy, and the UK, it doesn't seem like you're seeing any incremental softening. So just kind of curious what you're seeing kind of on the ground in Europe.

Joshua K. Chan: Hi, good morning Jonas and Jack. Thanks for taking my questions.

Jonas Prising: Thank you. I think you've described it well, Josh. You have France, which is slightly weaker, but you have Italy, which did a little bit better. We always expected Northern Europe to be the most challenging, and that turned out to be true, especially in the Nordics.

Joshua K. Chan: I was just wondering if you could speak broadly about the trends over in Europe . I think kind of going into the quarter, there were some concerns that maybe

Speaker Change: There will be some incremental softening in Europe in the second half, but it sounds like from your guidance in Q3, France, Italy, UK, it doesn't seem like you're seeing any incremental softening. So just kind of curious what you're seeing kind of on the ground in in Europe . Thank you.

Speaker Change: I think you've described it well Josh, you know you have a couple, you have the France which is slightly weaker but you had Italy that did a little bit better we always expected you know Northern Europe to

Speaker Change: be the most challenging, and that turned out to be true, especially in the Nordics, we saw some continued weakness, but stepping back from it all.

Jonas Prising: We saw some continued weakness. But stepping back from it all, you can see Europe as stable in terms of our activity at a lower level. We've now seen a first rate decline this morning, and the ECB decided to hold the rate steady. The inflation rate in Europe is coming down, so the underlying inflation rate is about 2.9%, and it is coming down. The US is at 3.3%.

Speaker Change: You are seeing Europe as stable in terms of our activity, you know, at a lower level and, you know, we've now seen a first rate, you know, rate

Speaker Change: decline. This morning the ECB decided to hold the rate steady.

Speaker Change: The inflation rate in Europe is coming down, so underlying...

Speaker Change: Inflation rate is about 2.9% coming down.

Speaker Change: The U.S. is at 3.3, so everything that we would expect to see happening in this economic cycle is sort of playing out.

Jonas Prising: Everything that we would expect to see happening in this economic cycle is playing out. The economy is cooling. Labor markets are cooling, though they remain solid. We are seeing it impact our markets in terms of the demand for temporary staffing and, of course, a bigger impact on permanent. All of these are dynamics that we would expect to see in an economic cycle, and frankly, it's playing out the way we as an industry have navigated challenging times like this before. Although we don't see an inflection point at this time, we're hopeful that it's not a question of if, but a question of when the inflection point occurs.

Speaker Change: The economy is cooling. Labor markets are cooling, though remain solid.

Speaker Change: And we are seeing it impact our markets in terms of the demand for temporary staffing and, of course, a bigger impact on permanent. All of these are dynamics.

Speaker Change: that we would expect to see in an economic cycle and frankly, it's playing out the way we as an industry have navigated challenging times like this before.

Speaker Change: So, although we don't see an inflection point at this time,

Speaker Change: You know, we're hopeful that, you know, it's not a question of if, it's a question of when.

Jonas Prising: Our ask is, of course, to stay ready for the upturn and manage the current environment at the same time. We do that by investing in sales resources to generate demand above and beyond what the market gives us, managing our SG&A, and doubling down on the investments and transformation. So during this time, we've really increased our effort on the digital transformation side, in the front office, and the back office, and we're making some excellent progress, you know, also on client-facing and candidate-facing properties such as mobile and web.

Speaker Change: the inflection point occurs. And our task is of course to stay ready for the upturn and manage the current environment at the same time. And we do that

Speaker Change: by investing in sales resources to generate demand above and beyond what the market gives us, managing our SG&A, and really doubling down on the investments and transformation.

Speaker Change: So, during this time, we've really increased our effort on the digital transformation side in the front office, the back office, and we're making some excellent progress, you know, also from the client-facing and candidate-facing properties such as mobile and web.

Jonas Prising: And that, we think, is going to be really good for us going forward because it really means we have a unique and global digitized technology infrastructure which will help us implement, of course, innovation and Gen AI and other aspects as well, as well as driving common processes across our business globally. Good color.

Speaker Change: And that we think is going to be really good for us going forward because it really means we have a unique

Speaker Change: and Global Digitized...

Speaker Change: technology infrastructure, which will help us implement, of course, innovation and Gen AI and other aspects as well, as well as driving common processes across our business globally.

John Thomas McGinnis: And then maybe a margin question for Q3. I think normally the business has a seasonal margin uptick going from Q2 to Q3, but that seems to be more muted this year. Just curious, what are some of the offsets that're causing the stable margins going from Q2 to Q3. Thank you.

Speaker Change: Thank you for that, Jonas. And then maybe a margin question for Q3. I think normally the business has a seasonal margin uptick going from Q2 to Q3, but that seems to be more muted this year. Just curious.

Speaker Change: What are some of the offsets that's causing the stable margins going from Q2 to Q3? Thank you.

John Thomas McGinnis: Josh, yeah, I think you're right. In normal environments, you generally will see the second half be a bit of a better margin opportunity. But I'd say, you know, last year, that didn't happen.

Speaker Change: Josh, yeah I think you're right. In normal environments you generally will see the second half be a bit of a better margin opportunity. I'd say you know last year that didn't happen. Last year we went down in GP margin from Q2 to Q3. Of course we were seeing declining trends.

Speaker Change: It's part of that, and I think the big part of the equation was PERM, right, coming down. And I'd say it's similar this year. I think we're not coming down sequentially. Q2 to Q3, we're holding at that 17.4.

John Thomas McGinnis: Last year, we went down in GP margin from Q2 to Q3. Of course, we were seeing declining trends as part of that. And I think the big part of the equation was PERM, right, coming down. And I'd say it's similar this year.

Speaker Change: So, what that really means is we're seeing PERM level off, starting to stabilize into the mix, kind of going back to the question we had earlier.

Speaker Change: in terms of the expectations for the PERM mix as total GP. So that's what's happening with GP margin. So that 17.4 is the midpoint of our guide.

John Thomas McGinnis: I think we're not coming down sequentially. From Q2 to Q3, we're holding at that 17.4. So what that really means is we're seeing PERM level off, starting to stabilize in the mix, kind of going back to the question we had earlier in terms of the expectations for the PERM mix as total GP. And that's what's happening with the GP margin. So 17.4 is the midpoint of our guide for margin when the recovery starts to take hold.

Speaker Change: for Q3, so I'd say stable overall.

Speaker Change: I would expect, as we start to see improving trends, you'll see PERM start to pick up again, and that will give us some opportunities.

Speaker Change: for increases in GP margin as the mix starts to move back in. And then, of course, as Experis and Talent Solutions start to get back...

Speaker Change: You'll see them average in in the mix at larger percentages as well, and that will improve the GP margin when the recovery starts to take hold.

John Thomas McGinnis: So those are some of the dynamics in terms of the margin overall. But I'd say, you know, really what we're seeing in Q2 and Q3 is really more stable underlying trends. And I think that means for the mix as well.

Speaker Change: Those are some of the dynamics in terms of the margin overall, but I'd say, you know, really what we're seeing Q2 and Q3 is really more stable underlying trends, and I think that means for the mix as well, and that's why you're seeing the GP margin hold fairly stable.

John Thomas McGinnis: And that's why you're seeing the GP margin hold fairly stable. Great. Thank you, Jack, and thank you both for your time.

Speaker Change: Great. Thank you, Jack, and thank you both for your time.

John Thomas McGinnis: Thank you. Our next question comes from Trevor Romeo with William Blair. Your line is open. Hi, good morning.

Speaker Change: Thank you. Our next question comes from Trevor Romeo with William Blair. Your line is open.

John Thomas McGinnis: Thanks so much for taking the questions. First one, I kind of just wanted to follow up on the US a bit. I think we talked about Xperia, but on the manpower brand in the US, it was a pretty nice improvement in the trend, you know, for revenue from that, down 13 last quarter to down this quarter. So just curious if there was anything in particular you'd call out there, you know, whether it's specific verticals or client groups that are performing a bit better, or, you know, just seem like you're starting to see signs of a little bit of a broad improvement there. Yeah, Trevor, thanks for the question.

John Trevor Romeo: Hi, good morning. Thanks so much for taking the questions. First one, I kind of just wanted to follow up on the U.S. a bit. I think we talked about Experis, but on the manpower brand in the U.S., it was a pretty nice improvement in the trend for revenue from that.

Speaker Change: I think down 13 last quarter to down two this quarter. So just curious if there was anything in particular you'd call out there, whether it's specific verticals or client groups that are performing a bit better. Or just seem like you're starting to see signs of a little bit of a broad improvement there.

John Thomas McGinnis: I'd say, you know, the thing to keep in mind with the manpower business, very similar to the experience business, was Q2 a year ago was the weakest point in terms of overall year over year decline. So we're lapping that. And that's part of the equation. We did go from minus 13 to minus two.

John Trevor Romeo: Yeah, Trevor, thanks for the question. I'd say, you know, the thing to keep in mind with the manpower business, very similar to the experience business, was Q2 a year ago

Speaker Change: was the weakest point in terms of overall year-over-year decline. So we're lapping that, and that's part of the equation. We did go from minus 13 to minus 2. So I think.

Speaker Change: I think we've seen some very good progress in the manpower business in the U.S., again, but in line with what Jonas was talking about in terms of stable on an underlying basis. So that stable progress we've been making is walking into improved trends year over year.

John Thomas McGinnis: So I think, I think, you know, we've seen some very good progress in the manpower business in the US and, you know, again, but in line with what Jonas was talking about in terms of stable on an underlying basis. So that stable progress we've been making is leading to improved trends year over year. And with that being said, I think we feel really good about the prospects for the US manpower business. There are some very significant wins that are in the pipeline. I think in this environment, it's always a question of when those wins will materialize.

Speaker Change: And with that being said, I think we feel really good about the prospects for the U.S. manpower business. There's been some very significant wins that are in the pipeline.

Speaker Change: I think in this environment, it's always a question of when those winds materialize. But we're working through that, and so we're very encouraged by that. The U.S. business has been working very hard.

John Thomas McGinnis: But we're working through that, and so we're very encouraged by the fact that the US business has been working very hard on their pipeline. So I think we feel really good about the prospects. I think it's going to come down to employer behavior and when they start restarting some of their programs before we start to see that manifest itself into a meaningful improved trend. In the meantime, we're expecting more stability in the underlying volumes into Q3. Okay, thanks, Jack. That's a helpful color.

Speaker Change: on their pipeline, so I think we feel really good about the prospects. I think it's going to come down to employer...

Speaker Change: behavior and when they start recommencing some of their programs.

Speaker Change: before we start to see that manifest itself into a meaningful improved trend. I think in the meantime, we're expecting more stability in the underlying volumes into Q3.

John Thomas McGinnis: And then just a quick follow-up on Northern Europe: it seems like maybe the Netherlands and Belgium are, you know, continuing to hold up a bit better than some of the other countries in that region. Just curious if you could talk about what you're seeing there, whether it's kind of just a little bit better market environment than some of the other countries or something specific that Manpower is doing to do well there. I think the underlying situation remains, you know, that the... Markets remain very challenging, both in the Netherlands and Belgium. Our teams there are doing a good job. They're holding the line.

Jack: Okay, thanks Jack, that's helpful color. And then just quick follow-up on, you know, on Northern Europe , it seems like maybe the Netherlands and Belgium are, you know, continuing to hold up a bit better than some of the other countries in that region. Just curious if you could talk about what you're seeing there, whether it's kind of just a little bit better market environment than some of the other countries, or something specific that Manpower is doing to execute well there?

Speaker Change: I think the underlying situation remains, you know, that the...

Speaker Change: Markets remain very challenging both in Netherlands and Belgium. Our teams there are doing a good job.

John Thomas McGinnis: They're performing a bit better than the market, which is a testament to the investments that we've made in sales and building some of that sales pipeline. But the overall market is still challenged, and they are still really trying to get back to a position of year-over-year growth over time. So I would say the teams are doing well. We see stability and slight improvement in those markets, and we're projecting that stability will continue into the third quarter. But the teams are doing a good job in those markets. Okay, thank you both very much.

Speaker Change: They're holding the line, they're performing a bit better than market, which is a testament to the investments that we've made in sales and building some of that sales pipeline.

Speaker Change: But the overall market is still challenged and, you know, they are still really trying to get back to a position of year-over-year growth over time.

Speaker Change: So, I would say the teams are doing well. We see stability and slight improvement in those markets, and we're projecting that stability continue also into the third quarter, but the teams are doing a good job in those markets.

Speaker Change: Okay, thank you both very much.

John Thomas McGinnis: Thank you. Our next question... comes from Stephanie Moore with Jeffreys. Your line is open. Hi, good morning.

Speaker Change: Thank you. Our next question comes from Stephanie Moore with Jeffreys. Your line is open.

Stephanie Lynn Benjamin Moore: Hi, good morning. Thank you.

Jonas Prising: Thank you. I wanted to go back to some comments that were made kind of early in your prepared remarks, specifically talking about how your clients are prioritizing hiring for kind of the core skills they need. You made a point to kind of highlight the priority placed on retaining and attractive workers with specialized and flexible skills, but particularly with the onset of AI and technological innovations and the like. So I'm just trying to kind of maybe dig into those comments a little bit more.

Stephanie Lynn Benjamin Moore: I wanted to go back to some comments that were made kind of early in your prepared remarks, specifically talking about how your clients are prioritizing hiring for kind of the core skills they need. You made a point to kind of highlight the priority placed in retaining an attractive workers with specialized and flexible skills, but particularly with the onset of AI and technology innovations and the like.

Jonas Prising: So are employers, from your conversations with employers, simply able to get by with less employees because of the skill sets they hired the last few years and their own technological expectations? I guess I'm just trying to rationalize this current environment and simply employer hesitancy because of the lack of confidence in the economy and what also could be just a structural hiring mindset change that we're seeing right now. So any color there would be great.

Speaker Change: So I'm just trying to kind of maybe dig into those comments a little bit more. So are you, are you, from your conversations with employers, are they simply able to get by with less employees because of the skill sets they hired the last few years?

Speaker Change: and their own technology expectations. I guess I'm just trying to rationalize this current environment and simply employer hesitancy because of the lack of confidence in the economy and what also could be just a structural hiring mindset change that we're seeing right now. So any color there would be great.

Jonas Prising: Sure. And so, Stephanie, I think what employers are prioritizing right now is retaining their existing workforce. They have a very painful memory in the U.S. of, you know, a major workforce dislocation during the pandemic, a huge spike in unemployment and great difficulty finding talent with very strong wage inflation in the two years following the pandemic. And so they hired a lot of people, paid a lot of money at high wages to bring those people in.

Speaker Change: Sure, and so Stephanie, I think what employers are prioritizing right now is retaining their existing workforce.

Speaker Change: They have a very painful memory in the U.S. of, you know, a major workforce dislocation during the pandemic.

Speaker Change: a huge spike in unemployment, and great difficulty finding talents with

Speaker Change: very strong wage inflation, you know, the two years following the pandemic.

Speaker Change: And so they hired a lot of people, paid a lot of money at high wages to bring those people in.

Jonas Prising: And they've been through all of the changes that you've seen in the economy during the pandemic and the post-pandemic spike of inflation. So their priority is to retain the workforce that they have and develop that workforce. Then they realize that they have seen a buildup of inventories in many cases, in advance of, you know, in response to the shortages you saw during COVID. So from a manufacturing perspective, and the PMI is below 50 both here in the U.S. and further below in Europe, they're now working off that inventory they built up to be able to satisfy the significant orders that they had received during the pandemic and post-pan So they're working off those inventories.

Speaker Change: And they've been through all of the, you know, changes that you've seen in the economy during the pandemic, post-pandemic, you know, spike of inflation. So their priority is to retain the workforce that they have and develop that workforce.

Speaker Change: Then they decide that they have seen a build-up of inventories, in many cases, in advance of.

Speaker Change: you know, in response to the shortages you saw during COVID.

Speaker Change: So from a manufacturing perspective...

Speaker Change: And the PMI is below 50 both here in the U.S. and further below in Europe .

Speaker Change: They're now working off that inventory they built up to be able to satisfy the significant orders that they had received during the pandemic and post-pandemic.

Jonas Prising: They are serving the markets and their client markets with the staff that they have. Of course, they are still maintaining temporary staff as well as consultants from Manpower and Experience, just as we're seeing. They're just not increasing them to any noticeable degree because they can manage in this current environment. And although our economic growth in the U.S. is still good, if you look at various sectors, you see that manufacturing has a tough time, and many other industries have a tough time.

Speaker Change: So, they're working off those inventories, they are servicing the markets and their client markets with the staff that they have.

Speaker Change: Of course, they are still maintaining temporary staff as well as consultants from Manpower and Experience, just as we are seeing. They're just not increasing them to any noticeable degree.

Speaker Change: Because they can manage in this current environment, and although our economic growth in the U.S. is still good, if you look at various sectors, you see that manufacturing has a tough time, and many other industries have a tough time.

Jonas Prising: The areas that are really generating growth are in government, in health care, and to some degree, in hospitality because consumers are still strong and purchasing experiences more than goods, although consumers are trading down just as you would expect in a cooling economy.

Speaker Change: The areas that are really generating growth are in government.

Speaker Change: It's in health care.

Speaker Change: to some degree, still, hospitality.

Speaker Change: Because the consumers are still strong and purchasing experiences more than goods, although consumers are trading

Speaker Change: trading down just as you would expect in a cooling economy.

Jonas Prising: So I would not see this as a structural change in hiring. Frankly, when I look across the world and I look at what other regions are doing, where the economic cycle is playing out, be it the continued good evolution in Latin America and in Asia-Pacific, we see hiring demand on temporary and on permanent positions, just as we would expect we would in those kinds of economic environments. The economic downturn in Europe really started at the beginning of 2022, and our industry has seen that inflection point play out just as we have seen in other cycles, maybe with a bit of a lag on the PERM side for a bit longer, but now we're seeing stability on the staffing side, a little bit more pressure on PERM, and frankly, we would expect the same traditional dynamics to play out here in the U. Staffing starts to move before PERM, and then PERM follows after that as the payrolls are being added to on a permanent basis, whether it be in commercial staffing or in professional staffing.

Speaker Change: So, I would not see this as a structural change in hiring. Frankly, when I look across the world and I look at what other regions are doing,

Speaker Change: where the economic cycle is playing out, be it the continued good evolution in Latin America and in Asia-Pacific. We see hiring demand on temporary and on permanent, just as we would expect we would in those kinds of economic environments.

Speaker Change: The economic downturn in Europe really started at the beginning of 22, and our industry has seen that inflection point play out just as we have seen in other cycles.

Speaker Change: Maybe with a bit of a lag on the perm side for a bit longer, but now we're seeing stability on the staffing side, a little bit more pressure on perm.

Speaker Change: And frankly, we would expect the same traditional dynamics to play out also here in the U.S.

Speaker Change: start to improve as well. Staffing starting to move before PERM and then PERM follows after that as the payrolls are being added to on a permanent basis.

Speaker Change: whether it be in commercial staffing or in professional staffing. So, we don't see this as a structural shift.

Jonas Prising: So we don't see this as a structural shift. We really see this as the dynamics playing out as we would expect them to. The anomalies, I think, come from the fact, as you look at our industry in the U.S., in particular, that we had a long period of very good and strong growth, and we as an industry saw a downturn almost 20 months ago without a recession, and I think the last six months we've seen the traditional dynamics play out, a cooling labor market, and cooling economic growth.

Speaker Change: We really see this as the dynamics playing out as we would expect them to. The anomalies, I think, come from the fact, as you look at our industry in the US in particular,

Speaker Change: that we had a long period of very good and strong growth and we, as an industry, saw a downturn almost, you know, 20 months ago without a recession.

Speaker Change: And I think the last six months, you know, we've seen the traditional dynamics play out, a cooling labor market.

Jonas Prising: As an industry, we've seen some cooling and then stabilization, so all of this, for us, indicates that this is traditional staffing industry dynamics playing out just in slow motion here in the U.S., and we feel good about how we're positioned for when the economy and the underlying elements of the economy really start to stabilize and move in a positive direction.

Speaker Change: a cooling economic growth

Speaker Change: As an industry, we've seen some cooling and then stabilization.

Speaker Change: So, all of this, for us, indicates that this is traditional staffing industry dynamics playing out just in slow motion.

Speaker Change: here in the U.S. and we feel good about how we're positioned for when the economy and the underlying elements of the economy really start to stabilize and move in a positive direction for us.

Jonas Prising: No, I think that actually that makes a lot of sense. That's very clear. I'm curious, when you kind of have your conversations with a lot of these employers or your customers, and they kind of just talk about, you know, everything that you just outlined, which is very clear, do they give any indication of what level of, you know, maybe underlying macro improvements that would require them to be a little bit more aggressive in their hiring? You know, I think, at this point, they have hired quite a good number of people They had to pay a lot for those employees.

Speaker Change: Got it. No, I think that actually that makes a lot of sense. It's very clear. I'm curious when you kind of have your conversations with a lot of these employers or your customers and they kind of just talk about

Speaker Change: You know, everything that you just outlined, which is very clear.

Speaker Change: Did they give any indication of what level of?

Speaker Change: you know, maybe underlying macro improvements that would require them to be a little bit more aggressive on their hiring. You know, I think, you know, at this point to your, you know, you have, they did a hire a quite a, quite a good number of people.

Jonas Prising: They're trying to, you know, now those employees are becoming even more tenured in these positions. You know, I'm just wondering, in the eventual recovery, which I'm sure we'll see at some point, how strong of a recovery are we going to need to see for there to be kind of a material pickup and kind of demand again, if that makes sense. Well, I think it's hard to say what kind of curve we should think about, but I would say this: you know, the inflection points can be many different things.

Speaker Change: They had to pay a lot for those employees, they're trying to, you know, now those employees are becoming even more tenured in these positions. You know, I'm just wondering, you know, in the eventual recovery, which I'm sure we'll see at some point, you know, how strong of a recovery are we going to need to see for there to be kind of a material pickup and kind of demand again, if that makes sense.

Speaker Change: Well, I think it's hard to say what kind of curve we would think about, but I would say this. You know, the inflection points can be many different things. We have geopolitical uncertainties. We have elections going on in various parts of the world.

Jonas Prising: We have geopolitical uncertainties. We have elections going on in various parts of the world. We have an expectation of interest rate declines here in the U.S. The ECB, as I mentioned earlier, has started, of course, the first rate decrease since 2019. The expectations are that the Fed would do the same. So it could be one or the other of all of these things put together that really start to kick start it.

Speaker Change: We have an expectation of interest rate declines here in the U.S.

Speaker Change: The ECB, as I mentioned earlier, has started, of course, the first...

Speaker Change: you know, the first rate...

Speaker Change: decrease since 2019. The expectations are that the Fed would do would do the same.

Speaker Change: So it could be one or the other of all of these things put together that really start to kick-start it. And I would say from a manufacturing perspective, many of the clients that we've spoken to

Jonas Prising: And I would say from a manufacturing perspective, many of the clients that we've spoken to are working off inventory, excess inventory that they accumulated in response to this glut of orders that came out during and after the pandemic. And many of the clients that we talk to say that, no, this is something that we expect to largely have worked through over the course of 2024. And with the external macro indicators that I mentioned, and that in combination makes us believe that we'll see some improvement, but the slope of that improvement is very hard to predict.

Speaker Change: are working off excess inventory that they accumulated in response to this glut of orders that came out during and after the pandemic.

Speaker Change: And many of the clients that we talk to say that, no, this is something that we expect to largely have worked through over the course of 2024. And, you know, with the external macro indicators that I mentioned, and that in combination,

Speaker Change: makes us believe that we'll see some improvement, but the slope of that improvement is very hard to predict. I think it'll very much depend on the industry that you're in and what each of those industries are seeing in terms of opportunities.

Speaker Change: All right, thank you so much.

Jonas Prising: I think it will very much depend on the industry that you're in and what each of those industries is seeing in terms of opportunity. Great, thank you so much. Thank you, and we have time for one last question. That question comes from Andrew Steinerman with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open. Hi, good morning. This is Stephanie Yee stepping in for Andrew.

Speaker Change: Thank you and we have time for one last question and that question comes from Andrew Steinerman with JP Morgan. Your line is open.

Jonas Prising: I have a similar question kind of to the last question, but we have seen this disconnect between US temporary health being down and GDP and nonfarm payroll being up in the US. It sounds like, correct me if I'm wrong, that maybe the biggest driver in your opinion is full-time labor hoarding. Do you think that fully reverses when things improve? And also, are you seeing that same hoarding dynamic in France?

Stephanie L. Yee: Hi, good morning. This is Stephanie Yee stepping in for Andrew. I have a similar question kind of to the last question, but we have seen this disconnect between U.S. temporary help being down and GDP and non-farm payroll being up in the U.S.

Speaker Change: It sounds like, correct me if I'm wrong, that maybe the biggest driver, in your opinion, is full-time labor hoarding.

Speaker Change: Do you think that fully reverses when things improve?

Speaker Change: and also are you seeing that same hoarding dynamic in France?

Jonas Prising: Thanks for the question, Stephanie. No, as I just explained, we don't think this is a structural shift in hiring dynamics. We think this is an effect of pandemic anomalies that we really expect to see normalizing. And frankly, over the last six months, we've really seen what we would characterize as a normalization of the trends that we would expect. That also, of course, does not explain the preceding 14 months, but frankly, I think your comment on labor hoarding or the fatigue that employers have in terms of having had to hire so many people under such difficult circumstances post-pandemic really makes them hesitate when it comes to any major shifts in their current workforce.

Speaker Change: Thanks for the question, Stephanie. No, as I just explained, we don't think this is a structural shift in hiring dynamics. We think this is an effect of pandemic anomalies that we really expect to see normalizing, and frankly, over the last six months.

Speaker Change: We've really seen what we would characterize as a normalization of the trends that we would expect. That also, of course, does not, you know, explain the preceding 14 months.

Speaker Change: But frankly, I think you're

Speaker Change: You comment on labor hoarding or the fatigue that employers have in terms of having had to hire so many people under such difficult circumstances.

Speaker Change: post-pandemic, really makes them hesitate when it comes to any major shifts in their current workforce.

Jonas Prising: And as they look out, the likelihood of a deeper recession appears to be becoming less likely, even a lighter recession maybe is less likely, and a soft landing is likely, which would give them even more reason to say, look, whatever softness we're seeing right now, we'll just top it out, and we'll be very careful with our overall expenses, reduce SG&A, not replace levers to the degree that we would have, not start But all that being said, we expect the traditional industry dynamics to kick back in once they feel that their environment improves, that they're confident it's going to be sustainable, and that's, I think, when we, as an industry, and also, of course, from our perspective, from Manpower Experience and Talent Solutions, could see some of that.

Speaker Change: And as they look out, the likelihood of a deeper recession appears to be becoming less likely. Even a lighter recession maybe is less likely, and a soft landing is likely, would give them even more reason to say, look, whatever softness we're seeing right now,

Speaker Change: We'll just top it out, and we'll be very careful with our overall expenses.

Speaker Change: Reduce SG&A, not replace levers to the degree that we would have, not start projects.

Speaker Change: as aggressively as maybe we would like to do during the transformation.

Speaker Change: And, you know, live what we have for now.

Speaker Change: But all that being said, we expect the traditional industry dynamics to kick back in.

Speaker Change: Once they feel that their environment improves, that they're confident it's going to be sustainable, and that's, I think, when we, as an industry, and also, of course, from our perspective, from Manpower Experience and Talent Solutions, could see some of that.

Jonas Prising: We've seen that stabilization that we've been hoping for in the second quarter, and we're projecting the same into the third, and we are making sure we are ready for when the inflection point comes so that we can take advantage of it and really get going on some improved profitable revenue growth.

Speaker Change: We've seen that stabilization.

Speaker Change: that we've been hoping for over the second quarter. We're projecting the same into the third.

Speaker Change: And we are making sure we are ready for when the inflection point comes so that we can take advantage of it and really get going on some improved, profitable revenue growth.

Okay, very clear. Thank you.

Jonas Prising: Okay, very clear. Thank you. Thank you. And that brings us to the close of our second quarter earnings call. Thanks again for all of your interest and questions. We look forward to speaking with you again on our Q3 earnings call in a number of months from now. Until then, enjoy the rest of the summer. Keep watching Milwaukee shine in all of the various media coverage that I'm sure you're seeing.

Speaker Change: Okay, very clear. Thank you.

Andrew Steinerman: And that brings us to the close of our second quarter earnings call. Thanks again for all of your interest and questions. We look forward to speaking with you again in our Q3 earnings call in a number of months from now.

Speaker Change: Thank you.

Speaker Change #100: And that brings us to the close of our second quarter earnings call. Thanks again for all of your interest and questions. We look forward to speaking with you again.

Speaker Change #101: in our Q3 earnings call in a number of months from now. Until then, enjoy the rest of the summer. Keep watching Milwaukee shine in all of the various media coverage that I am sure you are seeing, and we look forward to speaking with you again soon. Thanks everyone.

Andrew Steinerman: Until then, enjoy the rest of the summer. Keep watching Milwaukee Shine in all of the various media coverage that I'm sure you're seeing, and we look forward to speaking with you again soon. Thanks everyone.

Jonas Prising: And we look forward to speaking with you again soon. Thanks, everyone. Thank you for your participation; you may now disconnect. Everyone have a great day.

Operator: Thank you for your participation.

Operator: You may now disconnect.

Speaker Change #102: Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

Operator: Everyone, have a great day.

Andrew Steinerman: Andrew Steinerman, Peter Andrew Steinerman, Peter