Q3 2024 Shell PLC Earnings Call

October 31, 2024

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Operator: Welcome to Shell's Q3 2024 Financial Results Announcement. Shell's CFO, Sinead Gorman, will present the results, then host a Q&A session alongside Shell's CEO, Wael Sawan. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one. If you wish to be removed from the queue, please press star two. We will now begin the presentation.

Speaker Change: Welcome to Shell's third quarter 2024 financial results announcement. Shell, CFO, Shinate Gorman, will present the results. Then host a Q&A session alongside Shell CEO, Wael Sawan.

If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1. If you wish to be removed from the queue, please press star 2. We will now begin the presentation.

Sinead Gorman: Welcome to Shell's Q3 results presentation. This quarter, we've delivered another strong set of results despite a less favorable macro environment. This was driven by solid operational performance across our portfolio, continuing the momentum we've built over recent quarters. We further strengthened our balance sheet, leaving us well-positioned, irrespective of the macro environment. Looking at Q3 in more detail, our adjusted earnings were $6 billion, and we delivered $14.7 billion of cash flow from operations. Our Integrated Gas business performed well with increased LNG liquefaction volumes. In Upstream, we were pleased to complete a number of scheduled maintenance activities ahead of time. This paved the way for higher production output, helping us have a good quarter. In Downstream, results were tempered by lower refining margins and continued weak chemical margins.

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Welcome to Shell's Third Quarter Results presentation.

This quarter we delivered another strong set of results despite a less favorable macro environment.

This was driven by solid operational performance across our portfolio, continuing the momentum with built over recent quarters.

We further strengthened our balance sheet, leaving us well positioned, irrespective of the macro environment.

Speaker Change: Looking at Q3 and more detail.

Our adjusted earnings were $6 billion.

On the delivered $14.7 billion of cash flow from operations.

Our integrated gas business performed well with increased LNG liquefaction volumes.

In upstream, we are pleased to complete a number of scheduled maintenance activities ahead of time.

This paved the way for higher production I put helping us have a good quarter.

In Dynastream, this ultrotemper by Lover of Finding Margins, I continue to weak chemical margins.

Sinead Gorman: Our marketing business delivered strong results with adjusted earnings above $1 billion, at an oil price still well above the reference price used at our Capital Markets Day. The results across our businesses were enhanced by another quarter of robust trading and optimization contributions. Now, let me give you some updates on our portfolio. In our upstream business, we announced the start of gas production at Jerun in Malaysia, adding additional attractive volumes to this important hub. We also took a final investment decision on Vito water flood in the Gulf of Mexico, and we agreed to invest in Surat Phase Two in Australia, enhancing longevity and delivering more value from our existing assets. We continue to strengthen our leading LNG portfolio.

But our marketing business delivered strong results, but the just-dig earnings above $1 billion. As an oil price, still well above the reference price used at our cap's market today.

The results across our businesses were enhanced by another quarter of robust trading and optimization contributions.

Now, let me give you some updates on our portfolio.

In our upstream business, we advance the start of gas production at Joroon in Malaysia, adding additional attractive volumes to this important hub.

We also took a final investment decision on beta water flood in the Gulf of Mexico and we agreed to invest in Surah face to in Australia, enhancing longevity and delivering more value from our existing assets.

And we continue to strengthen our leading LNG portfolio.

Sinead Gorman: Following our acquisition of Pavilion and our entry into the Ruwais LNG partnership, we've also secured a 10-year supply contract in Turkey in Q3. We've also seen important developments in our downstream renewables and energy solutions businesses. One example is in Norway, where our Northern Lights joint venture has now completed construction. The project is ready to begin permanently storing CO2 to help European industries decarbonize. Last week, we announced the acquisition of a combined cycle power plant in Rhode Island, where demand is expected to increase due to growing decarbonization efforts linked to electrification. This acquisition will allow us to provide the critical energy our customers need by leveraging our trading and optimization capabilities in the New England region. Now moving to our financial framework.

Following our acquisition of the billion and our entry into the Ruise LNG partnership, we've also secured a 10-year supply contract in Turkey in the third quarter.

We've also seen important developments in our downstream renewables and energy solutions businesses.

One example is in Norway where a northern light's joint venture has not completed construction.

The project is ready to begin permanently storing CO2 to help European Industries decarbonize.

Speaker Change: And last week, we announced the acquisition of a combined cycle power plant in Rhode Island. We demand this expected to increase due to growing decarbonisation efforts linked to electrification.

This acquisition will allow us to provide the critical energy our customers need by leveraging or trading an optimization capabilities in the new England region.

Sinead Gorman: We expect our cash CapEx for the full year 2024 to come in below the lower end of the $22 to 25 billion range. While we continue to see many attractive investment opportunities, such as the Rhode Island CCGT that we just agreed to purchase, every investment decision is benchmarked against our shares. Given where they've been trading, we continue to preferentially allocate incremental capital towards share buybacks. This shows our ability to invest for the future while creating value today. As I said at the start, our balance sheet has further strengthened. Our net debt is at its lowest since 2015, less than half of what it was at the end of 2019. If we exclude leases, our net debt was under $10 billion at the end of Q3.

Speaker Change: Now I'm moving to our financial framework.

Speaker Change: We expect our cash-copx for the full year 2024 to come in below the lower end of the $25 billion range.

While we continue to see many attractive investment opportunities.

Such as the Rhode Island CCGT that we just agreed to purchase.

Every investment decision is benchmarked against our shares and given where they've been trading, we continue to preferentially allocate incremental capital towards share by box.

Speaker Change: This shows our ability to invest for the future, whilst creating value today.

As I said at the start, our balance sheet has further strengthens.

Our net net is at its lowest since 2015.

Speaker Change: Lesson half of water was at the end of 2019 and if we exclude leases, our net debt was under $10 billion at the end of the third quarter.

Sinead Gorman: This balanced and consistent approach to capital allocation is what gives us the ability to remain resilient throughout the cycle while continuing to offer compelling shareholder returns. Today we have announced yet another $3.5 billion share buyback program, which we expect to complete by the Q4 results announcement in January, making this the 12th consecutive quarter in which we have announced $3 billion or more in buybacks. To summarize, we've delivered another strong set of results this quarter, demonstrating Shell's resilience throughout the cycle. We've continued to make significant progress in strengthening our balance sheet while still being able to buy back another $3.5 billion worth of our shares. We continue to further strengthen our world-class portfolio within a framework of disciplined investment. It's still the early stages of this journey with more to come.

This balanced and consistent approach to capture allocation is what gives us the ability to remain resilient throughout the cycle whilst continuing to offer compelling shareholder returns.

And so today we have announced yet another $3.5 billion share buy-back program, which we expect to complete by the Q4 results announcements in January. Making this the 12th consecutive quarter in which we have announced $3 billion or more in buy-backs.

To summarize, we've delivered another strong set of results this quarter, demonstrating shells resilience through I-to-cycle.

We've continued to make significant progress in striking or balance sheets while still being able to buy back another $3.5 billion worth of our shares.

and we continue to further strengthen our Wael Sawan portfolio within the framework of discipline's investments.

It's still the early stages of this journey with more to come. We will play to our strengths and where we have differentiated capabilities as we end to be the investment case through the energy transition.

Sinead Gorman: We will play to our strengths and where we have differentiated capabilities as we aim to be the investment case through the energy transition. Thank you.

Thank you.

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Operator: We will now begin the question and answer session. People dialed in, if you have a question, please press star one. If you wish to be removed from the queue, please press star two. Phone callers are requested to mute the audio on their computer webcast and listen attentively to their telephone audio as we begin to progress through the telephone questions.

Speaker Change: We will now begin the question and answer session.

People dialed in. If you have a question, please press star 1.

Speaker Change: If you wish to be removed from the queue, please press start 2.

Phone calls are requested to mute the audio on their computer webcast and listen attentively to their telephone audio as we begin to progress through the telephone questions.

Wael Sawan: Thank you for joining us today. We hope that after watching this presentation, you've seen we delivered strong results in the quarter and how we are well positioned to remain resilient throughout the cycle. Let me start with a few updates. As you might have seen already, Mero Three in Brazil has started up, and we have just completed the divestment of Shell Pakistan, another important step in high-grading our existing world-class portfolio. Today, Sinead and I will be answering your questions. Now, please, could we have just one or two questions each so that everyone has the opportunity? With that, could we have the first one, please, Luke?

I'm going to be a good friend of mine.

Thank you for joining us today. We hope that after watching this presentation, you seen we delivered strong results in the quarter and how we are well positioned to remain resilient throughout the cycle.

Let me start with a few updates.

As you might have seen already, Maro 3 in Brazil has started up and we have just completed the investment of Shell Pakistan.

Another important step in high grading are existing world class portfolio.

Today, Shinead and I will be answering your questions and now please could we have just one or two questions each so that everyone has the opportunity.

and with that could we have the first one please Luke.

Operator: Our first caller is Josh Stone from UBS.

Our first caller is just known from UBS.

Josh Stone: Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for having me on. Two questions, please. First, just in your prepared remarks, you talked about Shell playing to its strengths through the energy transition. As I sort of listened to that, and reread it, just want to sort of unpick what that really means. Because on one hand, I could interpret that as a business which is gonna keep investing on low carbon assets where it sees it has some natural advantages. But on the other, I could also interpret that as Shell's gonna stick to doing what it does best. If I look at these results, that would be Integrated Gas upstream, a more profitable mobility business. Can you just clarify this? Where do you see Shell's strengths today and what that really means?

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for me on two questions please. First of all, in your prepare to remarks, you talk about show.

Playing to the strength through the energy transition and...

Speaker Change: I sort of listened to that and reread it. Just sort of I'm a bit what that really means because on one hand I could interpret that as a business which is going to keep.

and Investing on low carbon asserts, we know it's natural disasters.

But on the other, you know, could also interpret that as shelves in the sticks doing what it does best. If I look at these results, that would be in a greater gas upstream, a more profitable mode, a bit of a bit of a bit of a business. So you just clarify, where do you see shelves strengths today?

Josh Stone: Secondly, on the cash flow, impressive result this quarter. Cash flow growth, when in a declining commodity environment, particularly versus the peer group. If I look over history, your Q4 normally is when there's a weak cash flow performance of the year. That's sort of the way costs are accrued. Is there any reason to think this time might be different just in the light of the sort of cost savings you're seeing inside the business? Thank you.

What I really need. And then, secondly, on the cash flow.

Speaker Change: Impressive result, this quarter.

Speaker Change: Cashley Grove when in the declining commodity environment.

Speaker Change: I'm particularly best at the pair group. If I look at the history, the fourth quarter normally is when there's a weak cash flow performance in the air, sort of the way costs are a cruise. Is there any reason this time might be different?

Just a reminder of the cost savings you're seeing inside the business. Thank you.

Wael Sawan: Josh, thank you for two good questions to start off with. I'll take the first one and then ask Sinead to cover the second one. On your first question, if I start maybe with just the beliefs that we have as a company, we fundamentally believe that this energy transition is going to be a multi-decadal journey. We fundamentally believe that you're going to require multiple energy forms to be able to to navigate the energy transition. We do see that the energy system will start to see more uncertainty and more volatility in the context of geopolitical changes, demand-supply cycles, and the like. Of course, the intermittency of renewables as well. We want to position ourselves for that set of beliefs. What does that mean? It plays much more to the latter interpretation that you had.

Thank you. It's Josh, thank you for two good questions to start off with. I'll take the first one and then ask Sinead to cover the second one.

on your first question.

If I start maybe with just the beliefs that we have as a company.

Speaker Change: We fundamentally believe that this energy transition is going to be a multi-tercadal journey.

We fundamentally believe that we're going to require multiple energy forms to be able to navigate the energy transition. And we do see that the energy system will start to see more uncertainty and more volatility in the context of geopolitical changes, the man supply cycles and the like.

Speaker Change: Of course the Intermitancy of Renewable as well. And so we want to position ourselves for that set of beliefs.

Speaker Change: What does that mean? It plays much more to the latter interpretation that you had. We start from the perspective of believing that oil and gas have a critical role in the energy transition for a long time to come.

Wael Sawan: We start from the perspective of believing that oil and gas have a critical role in the energy transition for a long time to come. I'd say gas, in our view, is a foundational part of the future of the energy complex for at least the next few decades. Our leading advantage in LNG is one we want to continue to hone over the coming years. You see in the suite of announcements that we have had to be able to do that. In addition, we continue to believe in the important role that low carbon intensity oil have.

Let's say gas in our view is a foundational part of the future of the energy complex for at least the next few decades. And so our leading advantage in LNG is one we want to continue to hone over the coming years. And you've seen the sweet of announcements that we have had to be able to do that.

In addition, we continue to believe in the important rule that low carbon, low carbon intensity oil has. So we are very focused on how we can continue to be able to maintain our liquids production.

Wael Sawan: We are very focused on how we can continue to be able to maintain our liquids production through the coming years, to be able to make sure that we can deliver that crude either to our own infrastructure or for that matter to third parties to deliver to the customers. I'd say some of the real strengths we have are our customers understanding what they need to tackle the marine sector, understanding how that sector is evolving, to be able to allow us to meet the growing demand more and more moving into LNG with time into bio-LNG and possibly one day into alternative e-LNG or for that matter synthetic LNG. I would also say that our trading capability is second to none.

Through the coming years to be able to make sure that we can deliver that crude, either to our own infrastructure or for that matter to third parties to deliver to the customers.

And then I'd say some of the real strengths we have are our customers.

Understanding what they need to take the marine sector understanding how that sector is evolving to be able to allow us to meet the growing demand more and more moving into LNG with time into bio-LNG and possibly one day into alternative ELNG or for that matter synthetic LNG.

I would also say that our trading capability is second in an.

Wael Sawan: In a world where you require multiple energy forms and you need companies to stitch them across the entire value chain, I think we are uniquely positioned. We are playing to those competitive strengths that allow us to win in that future that I described. Sinead.

Speaker Change: And so in a world where you require multiple energy forms and you need companies to stitch them across the entire value chain, I think we are uniquely positioned. So we are playing to those competitive strengths that allow us to win in that future that I describe.

Sinead Gorman: Thank you. Thank you, Josh. Indeed, your question is really around cash flow. Thank you for pointing out very strong cash flow for this quarter, as you're aware. In terms of Q4, you're talking about whether or not you expect to see, particularly on OpEx, different uplifts coming through. What I would say is what we're doing as part of the cultural change in Shell is to make sure that we're building a company which is very much focused around consistency and resilience. Of course, that means that whatever happens, we would be able to weather it. What we're doing on OpEx is driving that consistency through it, and you're seeing some of the cost take out. I'm sure we will get to that later.

Speaker Change: Shunead

Thank you and thank you Josh.

Speaker Change: Your question is really around the casher and thank you for pointing on. It's very strong casher for this quarter as you're aware. But in terms of Q4, you're talking about whether or not you expect to see a thickly on optics different up-lifts coming through. What I would say is what we're doing as part of the cultural change in challenge to make sure that we're building a company which is very much focused to run consistency and resilience.

Speaker Change: So of course that means that whatever happens we would be able to weather it.

Speaker Change: What we're doing on the optics is driving that consistency through ice and you're seeing some of the cost tickles, so I'm sure we will get that later.

Sinead Gorman: In terms of the free cash flow and for the Q4, a number of things will occur. Of course, we have Pearl GTL done with a major turnaround, which will be $hundreds of millions of impact in that quarter. We also, of course, have normal tax phasing that happens in Q4 and things like the German, mineral oil tax that gets paid out. There's usuals that occur in the Q4. I think OpEx, we are very much on top of and focusing on throughout the organization. All of those things, do they worry me? No. You know exactly where we are in terms of the resilience of this company and the balance sheet, which I'm sure we will spend a lot of time talking about today. Thank you.

in terms of the free cash there for the fourth quarter.

A number of things will occur of course we have Pearl Gtailed Diamond with a major turnaround which will be hundreds of millions of impact in that quarter.

We also have normal tax phase in the happens in Q4 and things like the German mineral oil tax that gets paid out. So there's usually those that occur in the fourth quarter. I think all tax really is very much on top of focusing on throughout the organization.

Speaker Change: But all of those things, do they worry me? No, you know exactly where we are in terms of the resilience of this company and the balance sheet, which I'm sure we will spend a lot of time talking by today.

Wael Sawan: Thank you for that, Sinead. Josh, thank you for the question. Luke, can we have the second question, please?

Speaker Change: Thank you.

Thank you for that Jan. A. Josh, thank you for the question. Look and we have the second question, please.

Operator: Our next caller is Ryan Todd from Piper Sandler.

Our next caller is Ryan Todd from Plype Sandler.

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Ryan Todd: Great. Thanks. Maybe a couple questions for me. First, on the capital side, really impressive performance on driving capital costs down this year, with 2024 likely to come in below the low end of the range. Can you maybe walk through what are some of the biggest drivers of lower capital budget this year? As we look into 2025, how we should think about what this implies for 2025 CapEx and whether we might see it fall further? Maybe on the second front. Sorry, for a second question. Oh, sorry.

Ryan Todd: Great, thanks.

Maybe a couple questions for me. On the Capitol side, really impressive performance on driving capital costs down this year with 24 likely to be below the lower end of the range.

Can you maybe walk through what are some of the biggest drivers of the lower capital budget this year? And as we look in the 2025, how we should think about what this implies for 2025's CapEx and whether we might see it fall further?

and then maybe on the second front.

Speaker Change: Sorry for a second question.

Ryan Todd: Sorry, for a second question, I think, you've done a great job in the two-year sprint, kinda turning things around, particularly in terms of capital allocation, driving down costs, some of which has been, for lack of a better word, you know, less bad stuff or maybe returns the loot of stuff with your money. As we look towards the coming years, I would think the outlook will shift towards the focus on where you can invest to actively drive margin growth and improvement. With that in mind, can you maybe talk a little bit about what you view as your portfolio of investment opportunities, where you feel like you're particularly well-positioned, and maybe where you might be able to strengthen further the queue of investment opportunities, particularly on the upstream side?

Speaker Change: I think you've done a great job in the tier sprint, kind of turning things around, particularly in terms of capital allocation, driving down costs. Some of the whistle's been doing.

Speaker Change: You're for lack of a better word, you know less.

Last bad stuff, or maybe return the loot of stuff with your money. As you know, the coming years, I think there's a lot of the cool shifts towards the focus on where you can invest actively drive.

and Margin Gross and Improvement. With that in mind, can you maybe talk a little bit about what you view as your portfolio of investment opportunities, where you feel like you're particularly well positioned?

and maybe where you might be able to strengthen further the queue and have investment opportunities pretty early on the afternoon side.

Wael Sawan: Super. Thanks, Ryan. I'll touch on those and then invite Sinead if you want to add as well. Let me start with capital allocation. Where we see real strength at the moment is our ability to create incremental value from, in particular, our LNG complex. You've seen us lean into that, for example, with the Pavilion acquisition just recently, allowing us to access another 6.5 million tons. We see that continuing to be a strength, and you see us, whether it's through West LNG Canada coming forward, the Qatari LNG project, and Nigeria, we will continue to lean into that space. On upstream, we have an established strength in our deep-water business and in particular in the basins in which we are playing. You see that capital coming through in areas like the Gulf of Mexico.

Super thanks Ryan. I'll touch on those and then invite you in if you want to add as well. Let me start with Capital Allocation, where we see real strength at the moment, is our ability to create incremental value.

Ryan Todd: from the importicular or lng complex. You've seen us lean into that, for example, with the pavilion acquisition just recently, allowing us to access another six and a half million tons.

We see that continuing to be a strength and you see us whether it's sort of waste, LNG, LNG, Canada coming forward, the artillery LNG project, Nigeria. We will continue to lean into that space.

On upstream we have an established strength in our deep water business and in particular in the basis in which we are playing. You see that capital coming through in areas like the Gulf of Mexico.

Wael Sawan: We've just taken a final investment decision on the second phase of the Vito project. We have also, of course, our Brazilian assets, where again, we took an FID recently on Atapu-2, and I mentioned earlier the Mero-Three startup. Expect more in the deep-water space as we continue to mature the funnel of opportunities we have. We've talked about 500,000 barrels per day that we wanted to bring to fruition in this first sprint. We updated you last quarter to say we're just halfway through that. A lot more to come there. We are also being selective in investing in growth in our marketing businesses, not typically capital intensive. You're right, we are indeed just becoming much better, much more efficient in the way we generate value.

Ryan Todd: and just take in a final investment decision on the second phase of the veto project.

Ryan Todd: We have also of course our Brazilian assets where again we took an FID recent year on Ataputu and I mentioned earlier the Mayra 3 startup.

Ryan Todd: [inaudible] We've been in the past.

Ryan Todd: We are also being selective in investing in growth in our marketing business. It's not typically a capital intensive, but you're right. We are indeed just becoming much better, much more efficient in the way we generate values. So, to give you a sense, take our marketing business for the Scorter.

Wael Sawan: To give you a sense, take our marketing business for this quarter. In the past three quarters year to date, at roughly the same average crude price that it was for the first three quarters of last year, we have incrementally generated 20% more earnings. That's just doing our work better. Of course, that inherently allows us the opportunity to see more value to, for example, bolt on additional opportunities. We need to earn the right to do that. We need to continue to hold ourselves to a high bar when it comes to capital allocation, which maybe takes me to your first question, there, Ryan. Indeed, I mean, what we are seeing is a really focused and high bar for all capital allocation.

The past three quarters year to date, it's roughly the same average crude price that it was for the first three quarters of last year. We have incrementally generated 20% more earnings.

That's just doing our work better and of course that inherently allows us the opportunity to see more value to, for example, both on additional opportunities but we need to earn the right to do that.

We need to continue to hold ourselves to a high bar when it comes to capital allocation, which may be takes me to your first question there Ryan. Indeed, I mean what we are seeing is a real focused and high bar for all capital allocation. We've been very clear, our North Star is free cash will per share growth.

Wael Sawan: We've been very clear, our North Star is free cash flow per share growth, short term and long term. Right? That starts with making sure that the capital investment dollars that we are deploying today are going to earn us returns. You know our history. We've had some challenges in that space. This management team has said we are going to get on top of this and make this absolutely our focus in an area we want to improve. That's what we're doing. Our organic spend indeed is coming down to below $22 billion. That's what we want. It's not too different, by the way, from previous years.

Schoertherm and Enlobterm.

So that's stores with making sure that the capital investment dollars that we are deploying today are going to earn us returns. You know our history. We've had some challenges in that space. This management team has said we are going to get on top of this and make this absolutely our focus and an area we want to improve. So that's what we're doing.

Our Organic Spend, indeed, is coming down to below 22 billion. That's what we want. It's not too different by the way from previous years.

Wael Sawan: We want to continue to retain some flexibility to be able to capture those growth opportunities as they come, as we did recently with the 600 megawatt combined cycle gas turbine that you heard Sinead talk about in the video, or for that matter, as we did with Pavilion. We want to create the space while still staying in control and continuing to manage. For next year, the guidance hasn't changed. It's $22 to 25 billion as we continue to be really purposeful in the way we are investing our organic capital and keeping the opportunities to create some optional value for our shareholders.

With we want to continue to retain some flexibility to be able to capture those growth opportunities as they come. As we did recently with the 600 megawatt combined cycle gas turbine that you heard Shenej talk about in the video, or for that matter as we did with the video.

So we want to create the space while still staying in control and continuing to manage.

For next year the guidance hasn't changed. It's 22 to 25.

Ryan Todd: Billion Dollars as we continue to be really purposeful in the way we are investing our organic capital and keeping the opportunities to create some option value for our shareholders.

Operator: I think the only thing I would add, Wael, is that this is what dynamic capital allocation looks like. We're investing for value, whether it's to new opportunities or to share buybacks. Thank you.

Sinead Gorman: I think the only thing I would add, Wael, is that this is what dynamic capital allocation looks like. We're investing for value, whether it's to new opportunities or to share buybacks. Thank you.

I think the only thing I would add while is that this is what dynamic capital allocation looks like. We're investing for value, whether it's to new opportunities or to share by-packs. Thank you.

Wael Sawan: Absolutely. Thank you for that, Sinead. Ryan, thank you for the question. Luke, can we go to the next one, please?

Ryan Todd: and Wael Sawan.

Operator: Our next caller is Lydia Rainforth from Barclays.

Luke, can we go to the next one please?

Luke: Our next caller is Lydia Rainforce from Bar Police.

Ryan Todd: Thanks. Good afternoon, both, and thanks for taking the questions. Two, if I could. The first one, and this just is a little bit of memory, but can you update us on the appeal on the Hague Court ruling to cut Scope 3 emissions 45%? When might we expect a decision from the court? Can you talk us through Shell's options in both the case that you lose the appeal and then if you win as well, where you think the outcomes are? Secondly, just on the LNG side, Integrated Gas, we certainly seem to be having less seasonality than we have seen before during Q3. Is that something you think continues? Can you help us think about that LNG market into 2025? Thanks.

Lydia Rainforth: Thanks. Good afternoon, both, and thanks for taking the questions. Two, if I could. The first one, and this just is a little bit of memory, but can you update us on the appeal on the Hague Court ruling to cut Scope 3 emissions 45%? When might we expect a decision from the court? Can you talk us through Shell's options in both the case that you lose the appeal and then if you win as well, where you think the outcomes are? Secondly, just on the LNG side, Integrated Gas, we certainly seem to be having less seasonality than we have seen before during Q3. Is that something you think continues? Can you help us think about that LNG market into 2025? Thanks.

Thanks and good afternoon both and thanks for taking the questions. 2 if I could. The first one and it's just a little bit memory, but can you take us on the appeal on the hate court ruling to cut scope three missions 45 per cent?

When might we expect a decision from the course and can you talk us through Shell's options in both the case that you lose the appeal and then if you win as well, where you can be outcomes are.

and then secondly, just on the LNG side, integrated gas we certainly seem to be having less these analyses than we have seen before during the week here. Is that something you think continues and can you help us think about that LNG market into 25?

Wael Sawan: Lydia, thank you for those two questions. Can I start maybe with you, Sinead, on the second question? I'll take the first question.

Ryan Todd: Thanks.

Thank you for those two questions. Can I start maybe with you, Shinead, on the second question? I'll take the first question. Certainly, indeed, Lydia, I think you're spot on. We are seeing less seasonality coming through at the moment. It's definitely dampened what you would have seen that those changes between what would have been summer and winter and a lot more volatility because of that.

Sinead Gorman: Certainly. Indeed, Lydia, I think you're spot on. We are seeing less seasonality coming through at the moment. It's definitely dampened what you would have seen that, those changes between what would have been summer and winter, and a lot more volatility because of that. What you now see is that volatility aside, because those temperature differences just aren't there in the same way. We do think that that's probably going to play forward as well. That's what we see as well. That will play out, of course, in what you see across the market. You'll also see it in Integrated Gas results for us as well, and also linked to a little bit what I talked about earlier as well, which was around just what do I see for Q4, whether it's the Pearl turnaround that will come through.

What do you know, see as that ball tells you a side because those temperature differences just aren't there in the same way. And we do think that that's probably going to play forward as well. That's what we see as well.

Ryan Todd: That will play out, of course, in what you see across the market you're also seeing integrated gas results for us as well. I'm also linked to a little bit what I talked about earlier as well, which was around just what do I see for Q4, whether it's the Pearl Turnerine that will come through.

Sinead Gorman: It's also just that movement of cargoes between this quarter and next quarter as well. Thank you.

is also just that movement of cargo is between this quarter and next quarter as well.

Wael Sawan: Thank you for that, Sinead. Lydia, on the Milieudefensie appeal, of course, the judgment comes out on 12 November. We continue to be confident in the strength of our case and our conviction that, to truly get the impact that we hope for the energy transition on the en route to the net zero outcome that we all aspire to, this is not a matter to be held by the courts. It's best to be done by a government looking at the entire ecosystem and very much trying to drive the demand side rather than trying to manage one company on the supply side. Now, the court will decide.

Ryan Todd: is a good idea.

Thank you for that Shinead. Let you on the MDAP of course the judgment comes out on November 12.

We continue to be confident in the strength of our case and our conviction that to truly get the impact that we hope for the energy transition on the on route to the net zero outcome that we all we all aspire to. This is not a matter to be held by the courts.

Ryan Todd: It's best to be done by a government looking at the entire ecosystem and very much trying to drive the demand side rather than trying to manage one company on the supply side. Now the court will decide I think it's important to recognize November 12th is a waypoint.

Wael Sawan: I think it's important to recognize 12 November is a waypoint because if I am to guess at the moment, I would say irrespective of what the judgment is, one of the two sides is going to appeal and take it to the Supreme Court. That could take years. Where we are focused is on delivering our strategy. Our strategy is unchanged. We've talked about more value with less emissions. On that latter bit, less emissions, we are already moving at pace and with urgency. We have already been able to reduce our methane emissions by 70% since 2016, our routine flaring by 90% since then.

Because if I am to guess at the moment I would say irrespective of what the judgment is, one of the two sides is going to appeal and take it to the Supreme Court.

That could take years. And so where we are focused is on delivering our strategy and our strategy is unchanged. We've talked about more value with less emissions on that little bit less emissions. We are already moving at pace and with urgency.

So we have already been able to reduce our methane emissions by 70% since 2016, our routine flaring by 90% since then.

Wael Sawan: Our Scope 1 and 2 emissions are among the most ambitious, not just in our sector, but arguably more broadly of any sector, with a 50% reduction aspired to by 2030, and we're over 60% of the way there. We have set Scope 3 emissions reduction targets, which we are on track to meet both intensity and absolute. We are unwavering in our commitment to continue to deliver more value with less emissions, and look forward to seeing what that waypoint of 12 November looks with the confidence that we have a strong case there. Thank you, Lydia. Luke, can we go to the next question, please?

Our scope 1 and 2 emissions are almost the most ambitious not just in our sector but arguably more broadly of any sector with a 60% reduction, aspire to by 20, a 30 and we're over 60% of the way there.

Ryan Todd: and we have set scope three emissions reduction targets which we are on track to meet both intensity and absolute.

So we are unwavering in our commitment to continue to drive that more value with less emissions and look forward to seeing what that waypoint of November 12 looks with the confidence that we have that we have a strong case there.

Speaker Change: Thank you, Lydia. Luke, can we go to the next question, please?

Operator: Our next caller is Biraj Borkhataria from Royal Bank of Canada.

Our next caller is Barrage Bokotaria from Royal Bank of Canada.

Biraj Borkhataria: Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I just had to follow up on the CapEx guidance. Last quarter, I think I asked this question, but you mentioned you had a number of payments towards the end of this year that would, that's why you kept the guidance. Could you just let us know whether the part of the reduction today is just phasing into 2025 or is the overall spend plan down for that period for 2024, 2025? Secondly, I think just on capital framework, you know, one of the things that does separate you from the peers is how strong the balance sheet is. Obviously it shows through in slide 9.

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I just had a follow up on the cap ex-guidance. Last quarter I think asked this question, but you mentioned you had a number of payments towards the end of this year, that's why you kept the guidance.

So, could you just let us know whether...

The part of the reduction today is just phasing into 2025 or the overall spend down for that period.

2425. And then secondly, I think, just on...

Capital Framework, one of the things that does separate you from the pair is how strong the balance sheet is.

Biraj Borkhataria: Obviously, the environment has turned more negative relative to the last couple of years, and you have a substantial buyback program in place. Just wondering how you're thinking about where you want the balance sheet to be. Because the balance sheet obviously affords you flexibility and optionality, but at the same time, your shares are cheap, so you know, it may make sense to keep up the purchases. Just trying to get a sense of how you're thinking about those two competing factors. Thank you.

and obviously it shows through an in-slide 9. Obviously the environment has turned more negative, relative to the last couple of years and you have a substantial buyback program in place. So just wondering how you're thinking about where you want the balance sheet to be, because the balance sheet obviously, affords you flexibility and optionality.

But the same time your shares are cheap so you know, may make sense to keep up the purchase. So just try to get a sense of how you think you're about those two competing factors. Thank you.

Wael Sawan: Thanks, Biraj. Sinead, do you want to take both?

Sinead Gorman: Yeah, happy to. On the first one on capital, Biraj, very simply. In terms of for this year, it is below $22 billion, and that is simply decisions that we have made. Of course, we have payments that will still go out in Q4, and those are there, such as, you know, we just bought the power plant, Rhode Island power plant, et cetera, with Pavilion that still needs to complete, whether it's now or into next year, will depend on the closing process. Indeed, that's why we're keeping the outlook for next year of $22 to 25 billion as well. With respect to the balance sheet, you're right. We have an extremely strong balance sheet.

Speaker Change: Thanks for our Shinead Yonatek booth. Yeah, happy to. On the first one on Capitol Garage, very simply served.

Speaker Change: In terms of for this quarter for this year it is below 22 billion and that is simply decisions that we have made. Of course we have payments that will still go out in Q4 and those are theirs such as you know we just bought the power plant, grow, nylon, power plant, etc. We've been building this company whether it's...

Now we're into next year. We'll depend on the closing process. But indeed, that's why we're keeping the...

I look for next year of 22 to 25 billion as well.

With respect to the balance sheet, you're right. We have an extremely strong balance sheet.

Sinead Gorman: You know, I've been consciously strengthening this balance sheet to position the company for exactly this, to allow us to be able to perform and to be positioned in good times or bad times. That's exactly where we're at. It ensures, frankly, it doesn't matter whether we don't even just need to look through the quarter in terms of cash flows for distributions. We're able to look through the quarter as well in terms of the macro, and that's where our balance sheet allows us. It just means that we're operating from a position of strength without a doubt. Take, you know, one of the previous questions, which was, sorry, about next quarter, where we were asked just what you see coming through.

I've been consciously strengthening this, biology to position the company for exactly this, to allow us to be able to perform and to be positioned in good times or bad times.

and that's exactly where we're at. So it ensures, frankly, it doesn't matter whether we don't even just need to look through the quarter in terms of cash flows for distributions.

We're able to look through the quarter as well in terms of the macro and that's what our balance sheet allows us.

and just means that we're operating from a position of strength without a diet.

Speaker Change: So...

Speaker Change: One of the previous courses, which was as, or one of the previous questions, which was about next quarter, where we were asked what you see coming through.

Sinead Gorman: I've talked about, you know, the fact that we'll have a Pearl turnaround, we'll have the normal payments that come through, and we discussed all of those as well. The fact that we had actually this quarter, we had some of the cargoes from Q4 in Integrated Gas into Q3 as well. All of those things mean that I know, you know, what will come in Q4, including potentially some leases, if we get LNG Canada, the pipeline in or not, whether we get Pavilion closed or not. The leases might go up as well. Yeah, my net debt might go up, but my balance sheet is so resilient. That's what exactly what we've been working for. It means that we're operating from a position of confidence irrespective of the performance and irrespective of the macro.

and I've talked about the fact that we'll have a pro-turner round. We'll have the normal payments that come through and we discussed all of those as well. The fact that we had actually this quarter, we had some of the cargos from Q4 and integrated gas into Q3 as well. All of those things, I mean, I know what will come in Q4.

Speaker Change: including potentially some leases. If we get LNG Canada, the pipeline in or not, whether we get per million closed or not. So the leases might go off as well. So yeah, my net set might go up. But my balance sheet is so resilient. That's what exactly what we've been working for. It means that we're operating from a position of confidence irrespective of the performance.

Sinead Gorman: We don't need to react in the short term, which is very, very helpful. Thank you.

and irrespective of the macro, so we don't need to react in the short term, which is very, very helpful.

Wael Sawan: Thanks, Biraj, for the question. Thanks, Sinead. Luke, can we go to the next question, please?

Speaker Change: Thanks for the question, thanks for your question, and I'm sure you can go to the next question, please.

Operator: Our next caller is Alastair Syme from Citi.

Our next caller is Alas Desirm from City.

Sinead Gorman: Thanks, Sinead and Wael. Can I just really one question. I mean, as you look to, you know, make space in the capital budget, you know, can I really ask how you see the landscape for asset prices across, you know, the different parts of the business, upstream, downstream, and transition? You know, I mean, normally, I guess the best deals are done when sellers have a bit of stress. You know, are you seeing stress across these different parts of the system at any point? Thank you.

Alastair Syme: Thanks, Sinead and Wael. Can I just really one question. I mean, as you look to, you know, make space in the capital budget, you know, can I really ask how you see the landscape for asset prices across, you know, the different parts of the business, upstream, downstream, and transition? You know, I mean, normally, I guess the best deals are done when sellers have a bit of stress. You know, are you seeing stress across these different parts of the system at any point? Thank you.

Well, can I just really one question? Many who see look to make space in the capital budget.

You can now really ask how you see the landscape for asset prices across.

Speaker Change: You know the different parts of the business upstream, downstream and transition, you know, I mean normally I guess the best feels are done where it will tell us over the stress. So you know I you seeing stress across the different parts of the system at any point. Thank you.

Wael Sawan: Alastair, thank you for that question. I think the frame of your question is a good one because I think it speaks to how we're thinking about this. We are trying to be as dynamic as we can be across these different parts of the energy system. We're trying to avoid dogma in that sense, you know, that we have to sort of buy in that particular strategic segment. Because the volatility and the uncertainty that we're seeing and the realities that various companies are experiencing means that you will have opportunities, and we just need to be able to move at pace to create value for opportunities. We want to be value hunters, and so we want to be patient.

How to say thank you for that question. I think the frame of your question is a good one because I think it speaks to how we're thinking about this.

Speaker Change: We are trying to be as dynamic as we can be.

across these different parts of the energy system.

Speaker Change: and we're trying to avoid dogma in that sense. We have to sort of buy in that particular strategic segment.

Speaker Change: The volatility and uncertainty that we're saying and the realities that various companies are experiencing means that you will have opportunities and we just need to be able to move at pace to create value for opportunities. We want to be value hunters.

Wael Sawan: Back to Sinead's earlier point around building the balance sheet and the strengths and changing our diet to a lower organic capital diet affords us that optionality. What do we see at the moment? I think undoubtedly the opportunities that we have seen, in particular in the Integrated Gas space, have been attractive, in particular because we're finding that with the same portfolio, given our trading capabilities, we are simply able to create more value than others. That's giving us an alpha where we can actually find space with the potential seller. That's attractive, and I suspect that plays longer term, and something we continue to look at.

and so we want to be patient and back to Sheneid's earlier point around building the balance sheet and the strength and changing our diet to a lower organic capital diet affords us that that optionality. So what do we see at the moment?

Speaker Change: I think undoubtedly the...

Speaker Change: The Opportunities

Speaker Change: that we have seen in particular in the integrated gas space.

Have been attractive, in particular because we're finding that with the same ports for you, given our trading capabilities, we are simply able to create more value than others. And that's giving us an alpha where we can actually find space with the potential seller. And that's attractive, and I suspect that plays longer term.

Wael Sawan: Upstream, I think we're at a more transactable price, but still every asset or every seller is in a different vantage point around what is the right price to transact at, different realities. We don't want to simply buy resource. We want to buy resource where we can unlock incremental value and contribute to our free cash flow per share. We're patient. We know that between now and 2030 we have a very good runway, great projects to be able to deliver, and so we are waiting to see what the right points in that cycle are to be able to have these bolt-ons, as we have tried to do to add to our current strength.

Speaker Change: and something we continue to look at.

Speaker Change: Upstream, I think we're at the more transactable price, but it's still every asset or every seller is in a different vantage point around what is the right price to transact that different realities. We don't want to simply buy resource.

Speaker Change: We want the by resource where we can unlock incremental value and contribute to our freecast for a per share.

and so we're patient. We know that between now and 2030 we have a very good runway, great projects to be able to deliver. And so we are waiting to see what the right points in that cycle are. They'll be able to have these bolt-ons as we have tried to do to add to our current strength.

Wael Sawan: I think in the downstream and renewable space, it's fair to say that we've built and we've acquired some of the key platforms that we need, right? Nature Energy was a core part of a broader fit that we needed as we looked at our Integrated Gas value chain for the future and wanted to be able to look at decarbonized options for that. We don't need to buy more. We just need to be able to develop our current platform at the pace that the market allows. That's why you see us, you know, just selectively investing in that space. In the marketing space in general, we'll put small investments to, for example, augment our position in India around lubricants as we did recently. We don't need to spend a lot of capital there.

I think in the in the down stream and renewable space.

It's fair to say that we've built and we've acquired some of the key platforms that we need. Nature Energy was a core part of a broader fit that we needed as we looked at our integrated gas value chain for the future and wanted to be able to look at the carbonized options for that.

So we don't need to buy more. We just need to be able to develop our current platform at the pace that the market allows.

Speaker Change: And that's why you see us, you know, just selectively investing in that space. In the marketing space in general, we'll put small investments, to, for example, augment our position in India around lubricants as we did recently, but we don't need to spend a lot of capital there.

Wael Sawan: Really we're holding onto that capital and making sure the bar is high between putting it into buybacks or putting it into the right long-term opportunities for us. Thank you very much for the question, Alastair. Let me go back to Luke, if we can go to the next question, please.

and so really we're holding onto that capital and making sure the bar is high between putting it into buybacks or putting it into the right long term opportunities for us.

Thank you very much for the question, Alistair. Let me go back to Luke if we can go to the next question, please.

Operator: Our next caller is Roger Read from Wells Fargo.

Speaker Change: Our next caller is Roger Reed from Wells Fargo.

Roger Read: Yeah. Thank you. Good morning or good afternoon to you, I guess. I'd like to hit on two things. One, as you think about the performance this quarter and the outlook in terms of, you know, cost controls or optimization as was mentioned earlier, maybe a little more info on what you mean by optimization. We've heard about, you know, reducing headcount in the company and so forth, how that's maybe flowing through to this. That'd be question number one. The other question, just anything else you can offer on the trading performance, given what was, you know, generally a relatively low volatility in terms of commodity prices, just maybe what drove the performance there. Thank you.

Yes, thank you. Good morning for getting out to NANDU into you, I guess.

Speaker Change: Um...

I'd like to hit on two things. One is you think about the performance this quarter in the outlook in terms of

Roger Reed: You know, cost controls or optimization as was mentioned earlier, maybe a little more info on what you mean by optimization.

We've heard about...

and the company and so forth, how that's maybe flowing through to this. That big question number one. And then the other question, just anything else you can offer on the trading performance.

Given what was, you know, generally a relatively low volatility in terms of commodity prices, just maybe what drove the performance there. Thank you.

Wael Sawan: Thank you for that, Roger. Do you wanna start with the second one, Sinead?

Sinead Gorman: Sure. Yes, and thank you very much, Roger. In terms of trading, indeed, it was a lower volatility than we've seen in previous quarters. What do we see play out across our portfolio? You normally see it between two areas, largely between our Integrated Gas business and then largely in terms of the products trading, crude and products trading there. On the Integrated Gas side, what we saw was pretty much the same as this previous quarter. We had, so the same as Q2. Basically, our traders had the ability to have a bit more length because they had more volume. Some of those volumes have come from Q4 into Q3, but they were able to trade around it in quite a healthy price environment.

Speaker Change: Thank you for that Roger, do you want to start with the second one? Sure. Yes, and thank you very much Roger, and in terms of trading indeed, it was a lower volatility than we've seen in previous courses. What do we see? Play out across our portfolio. You normally see it between two areas, largely between our integrated gas business and then largely in terms of the product trading, crude and product trading there.

on the Antuggette Gas side, what we saw was pretty much the same as this previous quarter. So we had...

So the CMS Q2, so basically our traders had the ability to have a bit more length because they had more volumes. Some of those volumes have come from Q4 into Q3, but they were able to trade around it in quite a healthy price environment. And therefore although there wasn't volatility, we did have some length and therefore we were able to equalize in terms of...

Sinead Gorman: Therefore, although there wasn't volatility, we did have some length, and therefore we were able to equalize in terms of the performance Q2 versus Q3. If you look at crude and products or really the product side of things, of course, we did see that dampen significantly, and of course, that's about the availability of what's out there at the moment. That showed in terms of our chemicals and products performance, and you saw it coming down versus Q2 as well. Thank you.

Speaker Change: The Performance Q2 versus Q3. Then if you look at crude and products, the product side of things, of course we did see that downpand significantly and of course that's about the availability of what's right there at the moment. But that shows in terms of our chemicals and products performance and you saw it coming down versus Q2 as well. Thank you.

Wael Sawan: Thanks, Sinead. Roger, to your first question around cost optimization and the like. Let's start by saying, you know, I've talked about in the past the transformation of Shell. This is a multi-year journey. This is not a few quarters. I'm very pleased with the momentum we have built. You know, while I can give you a long laundry list of the different elements of what's contributing to that, whether it's from portfolio activities, divestments, which by the way don't even include Pakistan, which we announced today, nor Bukom, Jurong, and Singapore. All of those are yet to come in. There is a lot to do with, in particular, contractor headcounts.

Roger, your first question around cost optimization and the like.

I started by saying, you know, we've talked about in the past, the transformation of shell. This is a multi year journey. This is not a few quarters.

But I'm very pleased with the momentum we have built.

and you know, while I can give you a long, laundry list of the different elements of what's contributing to that, whether it's from...

Port 4U activities, investments, which by the way don't include Pakistan, which we announced today, nor book them, Jorong and Singapore, all of those are yet to come in.

There is a lot to do with in particular contractor headcounts. More importantly, it's the way we do work.

Wael Sawan: More importantly, it's the way we do work. I recognize you don't get to see what I'm seeing in terms of the activities happening in the organization. What I can tell you is I have very high confidence that we are able to sustain these improvements for some time to come because a lot of them will start to materialize in the coming quarters, in the coming years. For me, that is what truly a culture change is, not trying to pull a couple of levers and hope it changes, but working through just the standards we use, debureaucratizing, simplifying the organization, getting a lot clearer on what we're trying to achieve, and aligning the organization in pursuit of that.

Speaker Change: I recognize you don't get to see what I'm seeing in terms of the activities happening in the organization.

Speaker Change: What I can tell you is I have very high confidence that we are able to sustain these improvements for some time to come because a lot of them will start to materialize in the coming quarters in the coming years.

and so for me that is what truly a culture change is.

Speaker Change: and not trying to pull a couple of levers and hope it changes, but working through just the standards we use, a deburochorizing, simplifying the organization, getting a lot clearer on what we're trying to achieve and aligning the organization in pursuit of that.

Wael Sawan: That's why when people say, "Why do you preferentially allocate capital towards buybacks?" It's because of what we see. We see that runway of continuous improvement ahead of us, and that's what we are continuing to buy into. Thank you for that question, Roger. Luke, can we go to the next question, please?

and that's why when people say why do you preferentially allocate capital towards bybacks, it's because of what we see. We see that runway of continuous improvement ahead of us, and that's what we are continuing to buy into.

Thank you for that question, Roger. Luke, can we go to the next question, please?

Operator: Our next caller is Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs.

Our next caller is Michele Dellafinha from Golden Sax.

Michele Della Vigna: Thank you, and congratulations on the strong results. Two questions, if I may. The first one is on cost-cutting. You are now effectively wrapping up the first year. You've made tremendous progress towards the $2 to 3 billion. I'm just wondering if you are starting to identify more opportunities as you go into the next phase of your efficiency program. Secondly, going back to exploration, you've had success in Namibia. I believe you probably looked into the Galp acreage. I believe you shared data with TotalEnergies. You probably have a very good understanding of that area. After everything that you've learned, I was just wondering how you're thinking about that region and your opportunity for growth there towards, you know, the end of this decade or the beginning of the next one. Thank you.

Michele Dellafinha: Thank you and congratulations on the strong results two questions if I may. The first one is on podcasting. You are now effectively wrapping up the first year. You may tremendous progress towards the $2,000 to $3 billion. I'm just wondering if you are starting to identify more opportunities as you go into the next phase of your efficiency program. And secondly, going back to exploration, you've had success in academia. I believe you probably looked.

into the Galpeic Greater Belivysia data with total. So you probably have a very good understanding of that area.

Michele Dellafinha: After everything that you've learned, I was just wondering how you're thinking about that region and your opportunity for growth they are towards the end of this day. But at the beginning of the next one, thank you.

Wael Sawan: Yeah. Thanks, Michele. I'll go for the second one first maybe, and then come back and if you wanna add to the cost-cutting discussion. I think, Michele, to Namibia, indeed, we are privileged in a new basin like that to have so many players, and the ability to be able to learn from others, so we're not having to de-risk it on our own dime. We've already put quite a bit of capital for our own acreage, but of course, we continue to learn from others and to continue to look at opportunities there. I think what is universally agreed is that there is a significant amount of resource there. That goes without saying.

Speaker Change: Yeah, thanks, McAily. I'll go for the second one first, maybe, and then come back and if you want to add to the cost cutting discussion.

Speaker Change: I think Mikael Ithin and Mivia indeed we are privileged in a new basin like that to have so many players and the ability to be able to learn from others so we're not having to be risk it on our own time.

We've already put quite a bit of capital for our own acreage, but of course we continue to learn from others and continue to look at opportunities there.

I think what is universally agreed is that there is a significant amount of resource there. That goes without saying. I think it would be fair, I don't know if that's universally agreed, but at least my strong perspective is it is very challenging acreage.

Wael Sawan: I think it would be fair. I don't know if that's universally agreed, but at least my strong perspective is it is very challenging acreage, in particular around the movability of the resource, the permeability and the like. A lot of our focus is on figuring out whether we can find ways to be able to develop commercially investable projects. Because as I said earlier, our bar is high for investments, and if it cannot pass muster, then we're not going to invest in it. That's what we're focused on right now, just really understanding and learning from everything happening around us before we have to make a decision on the acreage.

In particular around the mobility of the resource, the permeability and the like. And so a lot of our focus.

is on figuring out whether we can find ways to be able to develop commercially investible projects. Because as I said earlier, our bar is high for investments.

and if it cannot pass water then we're not going to invest in it and that's what's we're focused on right now just really understanding and learning from everything happening around us before we have to make a decision on on the acreage.

Wael Sawan: Suffice it to say at this stage that we haven't yet reached a conclusion on that, and we hope to be able to do so in the coming months. Sinead.

Speaker Change: Suffice it to say at this stage that we haven't yet reached a conclusion on that and we hope to be able to do so in the coming months.

Sinead Gorman: Indeed, thank you. On the OpEx, I think while you answered quite a lot about that previously, so just to add to that, there's quite a lot that, of course, has hit the headlines, et cetera, that hasn't played through yet. In terms of, you know, how confident are we on the $2 to 3 billion? I'd say, you know, first and foremost, we set a target, we will deliver it. That's exactly what we're working towards. We're very much moving towards efficiencies rather than portfolio as being the largest share in terms of, those numbers, and we are working to achieve that and very clearly on track to do so. I'll bring you back to Q2 when we talked about it in some detail and gave an update.

Sure thing.

Indeed, I think that's the only uppacks I think, while you answered quite a loss by that previously. So just to add to that, there's quite a lot that, of course, has headlines that set your the hasn't played through yet. So in terms of, you know, how confident are we on the 2 to 3 billion, I'd say, in our first performance, we set our targets, we will deliver it. That's exactly what we're working towards.

We're very much moving towards efficiencies rather than portfolio as being the largest share in terms of those numbers.

and we are working to achieve that. I'm very clearly on track to do so. I'll bring you back to Q2 when we talk to about it in some detail and give an update.

Sinead Gorman: We were $1.7 billion at that point, and of course, we'll give you an update at the end of the year. Of course, the next steps will come after completion of the first sprint, but we are definitely on track. Thank you.

Speaker Change: We were 1.7 billion at that point and of course we'll give you an update at the end of the year. Of course, the next steps will come after completion of the first sprint, but we are definitely on track. Thank you.

Wael Sawan: Thanks, Sinead. Michele, thank you for the question. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

Thank you for the question. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

Operator: Our next caller is Irene Himona from Bernstein.

Our next caller is Irene Himmona from Burnt Dean.

Irene Himona: Thank you, and congratulations on another quarter of strong delivery. My first question, you've distributed 43% of CFFO in the past year. Your official range is 30 to 40, and you have the strongest balance sheet, as you mentioned, since the BG deal, plus the stock remains undervalued. Should we think of this as perhaps permanently moving to above your official range for the payout? Then secondly, if you can perhaps share your views on the 2025 outlook for European gas and for your global LNG earnings. Thank you.

Thank you and congratulations on another quarter of strong delivery. My first question.

Speaker Change: You've distributed 43% of safer foe in the past year. Your official range is 30 to 40 and you have the strongest balance aid as you mentioned since the BG deal.

Class the stock remains under valued turps. Should we think of this as perhaps?

and then secondly if you can perhaps share your views on the 2025 Art Look for European Gas and for your global LNG earnings. Thank you.

Wael Sawan: I'll start with the second one and then give Sinead the opportunity to reference the first one, Irene. Thank you for the question. I don't have a crystal ball. I mean, what we do see is continued uncertainty and volatility in the gas markets. It's fair to say that the prompt markets are looking tighter than maybe some envisaged, in particular because of the slippage of some of the major LNG developments that were due to come up in the US. We've seen some good buying this year at different points in the cycle, in particular China and India. European, in particular, industrial demand continues to be soft. But we are also seeing new buyers of LNG. Brazil, for example, demand has grown because of challenges with the hydro complex there. Egypt is importing.

Speaker Change: I'll start with the second one and then give Sinead the opportunity to reference the first one they were in. Thank you for the question.

Speaker Change: Um...

Speaker Change: I don't have a crystal ball. I mean what we do see is continued uncertainty and volatility in the gas markets. It's fair to say that the prompt markets are looking tighter than maybe some envisaged in particular because of the slippage of some of the major LNG developments that were due to come up in the in the US.

We've seen some good buying this year at different points in the cycle in Particular China and India. European, in Particular Industrial demand continues to be soft.

But we are also seeing new buyers of LNG, Brazil, for example the man has grown because of challenges with the hydro complex there. Egypt is important.

Wael Sawan: 2025, difficult to call, in particular, given the volatility and the geopolitical context. I think it's fair to say that. The market, at least for now, continues to show balance, at least through the next year on a physical basis. Having said that, I'll just reiterate a couple of points that Sinead has made. What we also see is that the nature of the seasonality that we had been used to in the past, we don't see as much going forward. It's also fair to say that the volatility that we have seen since 2022 isn't there. We're more in sort of the pre-2022 price normalized space. It's a different context, and we need to be able to adapt back to pre-2022 realities as a company.

Speaker Change: 225 difficult to call in particular given the volatility and the geopolitical context. But I think it's fair to say that the market, at least for now, continues to show balance through the next year on a physical basis.

I'll just reiterate a couple of points that Sinead has made. What we also see is that...

The nature of the seasonality that we had been used to.

in the past we don't see as much going forward.

It's also fair to say that the volatility that we have seen since 2022 isn't there. We're more in sort of the pre- 2022 price normalized space. And so it's a different context and we need to be able to adapt to back to pre- 2022 realities as a company.

Sinead Gorman: Thanks, Irene. Indeed. I'll keep it to a more the way we're thinking about it. That's really the way we're trying to process this. It's about being able to do CapEx, both organic and inorganic, and distribute above the range, exactly as you said, and strengthen the balance sheet, which is a wonderful place to be. Indeed, yep, we have continued to distribute above the range at the moment. It's 30% to 40%, which was through the cycle, as you say. We are 12 quarters of distributions above $3 billion. Of course, you can look at what we've done in the past. You asked me about what we're gonna do in the future. I'll not go to the future. I'll ask you to look at our actions. What have we done?

Speaker Change: and thanks for reading. Indeed, and I'll keep it to a more the way we're thinking about it. This is one Ann.

That's really the way we're trying to process this.

It's about being able to do cat-packs per organic and inorganic and distribute above the range exactly as you said and strengthen the balance sheet.

which is a wonderful place to be. So indeed, we have continued to distribute above the range at the moment. It's 30 to 40% which is through the cycle, as you say. We are 12 quarters of distributions above 3 billion.

Speaker Change: And of course you can look at what we've done in the past so you asked me what we're going to do in the future. I'll not go to the future, I'll ask you to look at our action.

Sinead Gorman: We've done 12 quarters now above $3 billion. Beyond that, what we've also done is in times where we've had lower cash flows, you can go back to Q4 last year. If you go back there, we had CFFO, which was slightly weaker, and of course, our net debt went up, and still we did $3.5 billion of buybacks at the time. It is clear we are preferentially allocating to share buybacks. Have a look at what we've done in the past and use that as well. Thank you.

Speaker Change: What have we done? We've done 12 courses, now I above 3 billion and beyond that we've also done is in times where we've had lower cash flows, so you can go back to Q4 last year.

If you go back there, we had CFFA which was slightly weaker and of course our net debt went up and still we did three and a half billion of buy-back for the time. It is clear we are preferentially allocating to share buy-backs. So have a look at what we've done in the past and use that as well.

Wael Sawan: Great. Thank you, Sinead. Irene, thank you very much. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

Speaker Change: Thank you. Great, thank you, Sinead. We're going to thank you very much. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

Operator: Our next caller is Giacomo Romeo from Jefferies.

Luke: Our next caller is Jack Moura-Mayo from Jeffries.

Giacomo Romeo: Yes, thank you. Two questions for me. First one is on the LNG market. You mentioned the contract you signed with BOTAŞ in Turkey. There have been some headlines suggesting that term pricing is coming down, particularly related to this agreement. Are you seeing a more challenging market in the term market? Second question I wanted to ask is, can you remind us where we stand in terms of the key hurdles to taking FID on the second phase of LNG Canada? And are you happy with the acreage you have in around those assets? Would you be looking to add more acreage in the area?

Speaker Change: i

Jack Moura-Mayo: Thank you. Two questions for me. The first one is...

Jack Moura-Mayo: On the energy market, you mentioned the control you signed with both the Sinead Gorman. There have been some headlamps suggesting that term pricing is coming down, particularly to these agreement. Are you seeing more challenging markets in the third market? Second question I went to ask is...

The Kenya Minders, where we stand in terms of the key hurdles to taking FID on the second phase of LNG Canada. And are you happy with the acreage you have in around those assets? Are you looking to add more acreage in the area?

Wael Sawan: Giacomo, thank you for that. I'll touch on both. I think on the LNG markets, you'll appreciate I won't be able to sort of disclose specific term prices. What I would say is there is nothing that we're seeing at the moment that is different than previous cycles, where you see sometimes the pendulum swings towards buyers, sometimes towards sellers. Where we have always positioned ourselves is on both sides, where we are a significant offtaker of volumes, we are a buyer, and of course, we are a significant seller, being one of the largest players in the market. What we try to do as a company is not to worry about what we can't control, which is where the market fundamentals are. We can't control that.

I think on the LNG markets, you'll appreciate that I won't be able to sort of disclose specific term prices. What would I say?

Jack Moura-Mayo: is there is nothing that we're seeing at the moment that is different than previous cycles, where you see sometimes the pendulum swings towards spires, sometimes towards sellers and where we have always positioned ourselves is on both sides.

Where we are a significant off-take of volumes, we are a buyer, and of course we are a significant seller being one of the largest players in the market. And so what we try to do as a company is not to worry about what we can't control, which is where the market fundamentals are. We can't control that.

Wael Sawan: What we have control over, and that's where we want to focus, is on our ability to be able to have options to create value through what will inevitably be cycles. That's what we're positioning for, and that's what we are trying to secure. Opening up an option like Turkey is very special for us, because it is one of the largest, of course, importers in Europe and gives us another delivery point for our growing portfolio of LNG projects. On LNG Canada phase two, I think before I get into phase two, we need to be able to sort of continue to see the momentum on phase one, and that we're seeing. We're over 95% complete there. We have gas from the Coastal GasLink pipeline coming through to help with the commissioning of the systems.

What we have control over and that's where we want to focus is on our ability to be able to have options to create value through what will inevitably be cycles.

and that's what we're positioning for and that's what we are trying to secure opening up an option like Turkey is very special for us because it is one of the largest of course, in Europe and gives us another delivery point for our growing portfolio of LNG projects

on LNG Canada Face 2.

I think before I get...

Interface to we need to be able to sort of continue to see the momentum on phase one and that's we're seeing. We're over 95% complete there. We have gas from the coastal gas link pipeline coming through to help with the commissioning of the systems.

Wael Sawan: We hope sort of by middle of next year to be able to see first cargos and the start of what will be an exciting project for us for the future. LNG Canada phase two, of course, the joint venture, which is an independent joint venture, will have to present their proposal to their shareholders. Of course, that has to be an investable opportunity. They are developing that, and in due course, they'll be able to to put it forward for us to be able to reflect along with the other shareholders doing the same. In terms of acreage, we're very pleased with the position we have, which really gives us the option, not the obligation, the option to be able to either produce out of our existing acreage or to pull from third-party suppliers in AECO.

and we hope that by middle of next year to be able to see first car goes and the start of what will be an exciting project for us for the future.

LNG Canada Phase 2, of course the joint venture which is an independent joint venture, will have to present their proposal to their shareholders. Of course that has to be an investable opportunity. They are developing that and in the course they'll be able to put it forward for us to be able to reflect along with the other shareholders doing the same.

Jack Moura-Mayo: In terms of acreage, we're very pleased with the position we have.

which really gives us the option, not the obligation, the option to be able to either produce out of our existing acreage or to pull from a third party suppliers in Acau. That is the beauty of the position we have there and that's one where we will continue to be able to look forward as we bring LNG Canada up to be able to optimize and to create value artists.

Wael Sawan: That is the beauty of the position we have there, and that's one where we will continue to be able to look forward as we bring LNG Canada up to be able to optimize and to create value out of. Thank you very much, Giacomo. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

Operator: Our next caller is Lucas Herrmann from BNP.

Look, let's go to the next question, please.

Speaker Change: Our next caller is Lucas Herman from BNP.

Lucas Herrmann: Very much. As with the others, it's very encouraging to see the performance. A couple, if I might. I just wanted. We're into Q4. It's that time of year when we all start to speculate around dividend. I guess very frustratingly, your share price is the same level, you know, as it was a year ago. A year ago, you were very clear that the preference is very much the buyback as you held with the 4% growth in dividend. Would it be sensible to assume, and I know it's a board decision, but I guess it would be sensible to assume that that would be a practical approach this time as well. You know, question one is really around dividend and thinking whether there's, you know, any change.

very much and as with the others.

is very encouraging to see the performance. A couple of years ago, I just wanted to look into the fourth quarter, it's that time a year when we all start to speculate around dividend. I guess very frustrating the share price is the same level as it was a year ago. A year ago you were very clear that the preference is very much the buyback.

and you held with the 4% growth in dividend.

What do we say in the sense of a assume and I know it's a board decision but I guess it would be sensible to assume that that would be a practical approach this time as well. So you know question one is really around dividend thinking whether there's...

Matt Lofting: Second, sorry, it's a little bit of a gain in part around LNG. Can you just remind me, where are we with Venture and the volumes actually starting to flow to your business? This is kind of leaving aside the Venture litigation if one can. Is there a point at which actually the 2 million that you were due should officially start? I know you well, I can't say that because, well, for obvious reasons. Was there effectively a hard deadline? Sorry, just staying with volumes. Pavilion, the expectation is still that the deal will complete by the end of the year. Thank you.

Lucas Herrmann: Second, sorry, it's a little bit of a gain in part around LNG. Can you just remind me, where are we with Venture and the volumes actually starting to flow to your business? This is kind of leaving aside the Venture litigation if one can. Is there a point at which actually the 2 million that you were due should officially start? I know you well, I can't say that because, well, for obvious reasons. Was there effectively a hard deadline? Sorry, just staying with volumes. Pavilion, the expectation is still that the deal will complete by the end of the year. Thank you.

Speaker Change: and the second story, it's a little bit here to gain in part around LNG. Here's my where are we with venture and the volumes actually starting to flow?

to your business. This is kind of leaving aside the investigation if one can. But is there a point at which actually the two million that you would do should have officially start? I know, but I can't I'll say that because what for obvious reasons. With that red.

was a refactantly a hard deadline. Sorry, just staying with volumes. The pavilion, the expectation is still that the trade will complete by the end of the year.

Wael Sawan: Super. Thanks, Lucas. Do you want to start with the first one? I can take the second one.

Speaker Change: Thank you.

Super thanks Lucas, do you want to start with the first one I could take the second one there? Yeah indeed on dividends I think it's...

Sinead Gorman: Yeah, no, indeed. On dividends, I think it's interesting reflection. You're right, board decision, et cetera. Lucas, you knew exactly where I was going to go to on that one. Look, the position we're in is very clear. We have a amazing balance sheet, which has been consciously put in place to allow us to weather what comes at us, whether it's performance or whether it's macro, which gives us a differentiating factor without a doubt. It comes down to how do we distribute around that? As you say, we look to value. It's invest for value. It doesn't matter whether we're doing it towards, you know, new capital investments or whether it's in terms of buybacks or how we distribute to the shareholders. It's just about the and around that and how we stick to value.

Interesting Effections for your right board decision, etc. Look at the position we're in is very clear. We have an amazing balance sheet which has been consciously put in place to allow us to weather what comes out is whether it's performance or whether it's macro.

Speaker Change: which gives us a different see-as-ing factor with on-the-date.

Speaker Change: So then it comes down to hard-weigh distributors around that and as you say, we look to value. It's in best for value, it doesn't matter whether we're doing it towards new capital investments or whether it's in terms of buybacks or how we distribute it to the shareholders.

It's just about the Anderrand and how we stick to value. So where are we? We've got share price which is not reacted yet. So in terms of the share price is still undervalued as far as we are concerned. And therefore great confidence in terms of the share by-bikes. And you can look to what we've done before.

Sinead Gorman: Where are we? We've got share price, which has not reacted yet. In terms of the share price, it's still undervalued as far as we are concerned, and therefore, great confidence in terms of the share buybacks. You can look to what we've done before. We'll see what we do next year. That's always what we do, and we'll come back to you towards the end of the year or in our next capital markets day. Thanks, Lucas.

We'll see what we do next year, that's always what we do and we'll come back to you towards the end of the year or our next couple of markets day.

Wael Sawan: Thanks, Sinead. Lucas, to your other two points. Very quickly, Pavilion going through the regulatory approval expected early next year. It takes some time to ramp up into our portfolio. We're really only thinking about true incremental value creation in the second half of next year, the way we think about it. On Venture Global, I've talked about it enough times. I wish I had something new to say on it other than that, frustratingly, we have got no volumes against our term agreement. A term agreement, of course, which underpinned the financing for that project. We're going to go through the arbitration hearings this quarter, from what I recall, and then see where we go from there. Clearly a frustrating situation to be in.

Thanks for watching.

Lucas Teer, other two points, very quickly pavilion going through the regulatory approval expected early next year. We've only really sort of it takes some time to ramp up into our portfolio. So we really only think about.

Through incremental value creation in the second half of next year's the way we think about it.

On venture global I talked about it in a time I wish I had something new to say on it other than it frustratingly we have got no volumes.

Speaker Change: Again, Star Term agreement, a term agreement of course which underpin the financing for that project. We're going to go through the arbitration hearings, the score through what I recall. And then see where we go from there, but clearly a frustrating situation to be in.

Wael Sawan: Lucas, thank you for those questions.

Sinead Gorman: Can I just say sorry while we're just getting a notification. We hear there's some feed issues coming through in the video, so apologies for that. The team are working on it, but hopefully the audio is working very, very well. Thanks so much.

Thank you for those questions. We're just getting a notification. We hear there's some feed issues coming through in the videos or apologies for that. The team are working on it, but hopefully the audio is working very well.

Wael Sawan: Good. No, thank you very much for that, Sinead. Luke, let's go to the next question with the hope that it's all coming through.

Speaker Change: Thanks. Thank you very much for that, Janade. Luke, let's go to the next question with the hope that it's all coming through.

Operator: Our next caller is Matt Lofting from J.P. Morgan.

Speaker Change: Our next caller is Matt Losting from JP Morgan.

Matt Lofting: Hi. Thanks for taking the questions and congratulations on a robust update, absolute and relative. It strikes me looking at the numbers that, again, this quarter, if we combine the Upstream and Integrated Gas businesses, the aggregated numbers have beaten consensus expectations. That's been several quarters in a row that that's been the case now. Could you just talk a bit about sprint-related underlying benefits and deltas within those businesses and where you think you're creating the value that they should sustain 2025 plus. Secondly, I think in Sinead's opening remarks, you mentioned the early stages that Shell is still in on the journey that it's on. Clearly, we could interpret that in a multi-year and possibly even multi-decade context in terms of the transition.

Hi, thanks for taking the questions and congratulations on a robust update at absolute and relative. It strikes me looking at the numbers that again this quarter if we combine the upstream and integrated gas businesses.

The Egregated Numbers of the Beat and Consensus Expert Expectations has been several quarters in the row that has been the case now. So could you just talk a bit about sprint related underlying benefits and delters within those businesses and where you think you're creating the value that the should sustain 2025 plus? And then secondly, I think engineered opening remarks, you mentioned.

The early stages that Shell is still in on the journey that it's on.

Speaker Change: Clearly we could interpret that in a multi-year and possibly even multi-decade contact in terms of the transition but if we bring it back to the next six to 11, 18 months, what are the bigger, take it milestones that you're looking at in an operational and fiscal sense? Thank you.

Matt Lofting: If we bring it back to the next 6, 12, 18 months, what are the sort of big ticket milestones that you're looking at in an operational and fiscal sense? Thank you.

Wael Sawan: You wanna take this?

Sinead Gorman: Happy to. Please feel free to add. Indeed, just looking at the context you're setting here, Matt. Indeed, we have beaten consensus in terms of Upstream and Integrated Gas. I would say there's a number of things there. First and foremost, it's about in terms of versus consensus. We saw more feed gas come in from Nigeria in our Integrated Gas business. I alluded to it earlier as well, that some cargos also moved from Q4 into Q3. That gave us a little bit of a lift in terms of IG. In terms of Upstream, actually versus consensus, what we saw was, of course, production was up. Why was that up? That was up because of two things.

You want to do this? Happy to. I'm pleased you'll free to add. So, indeed, just looking at the context of setting here, Maas. So, indeed, we have beaten consensus in terms of upstream and integrated gas. I would say there's a number of things that are first and foremost, it's...

A pilot in terms of first consensus, we saw more feedbacks coming from Nigerian in our integrated gas business. I alluded to it earlier as well that some cargos also moved from Q4 into Q3.

So that gave us a little bit of a lift in terms of IG and in terms of upstream actually versus consensus what we saw with the course production was up.

Sinead Gorman: One was getting up and running after hurricane season, so it's still going on, but it was less than we were expecting, and we were able to get the assets up and running. Amazing work from the team along the way. Also, interestingly, on maintenance, and I think that's just a fascinating one on maintenance. What we're seeing is the business, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, being able in terms of maintenance to be able to reduce the time. This isn't cutting work. This is about efficiency and focus. That leads to your second question. When we can get assets up and running 10 days shorter than they would have been in a previous maintenance run, that's an amazing amount of barrels that you get out there and be able to hit your bottom line.

Why was that up? That was up because of two things. One was getting up and running after hurricane seasons. So it's still going on. But it was less than we were expecting. I'm really able to get the assets up and running. Amazing work from the team along the way. I'm also interested in your maintenance. I think that's just a fascinating one of maintenance.

What we're seeing is the business particularly in the Gulf of Mexico being able in terms of maintenance to be able to reduce the time. And this isn't cutting work, this is a bite of efficiency and focus.

Speaker Change: and that leaves your second question. When we can get assets up and running 10 days shorter than they would have been in a previous maintenance run, that's an amazing amount of barrels that you get out there and be able to hit your bottom line.

Sinead Gorman: What we're seeing is that sort of cultural change coming through where that accountability, where each and every person knows exactly what they do for the bottom line is flowing through to the bottom line results. In terms of early stages, what does that mean? What am I saying there? We've started this journey. We are continuing to push it down at all levels of the organization, and it's coming bottoms up as well. We're seeing people get excited about this. We're seeing them understand what they can do and bring ideas to the fore. Do I see it continuing? Absolutely. I see it continuing to ramp up as we go through, and we'll continue to update you. First and foremost, let us deliver on sprint one, and we'll give you an update on that towards the end of the year. Thank you.

Speaker Change: What we're seeing is that sort of cultural change coming through without a accountability where each and every person knows exactly what they do for the bottom line, is flowing through to the bottom bottom line results. So in terms of early stages.

What does that mean? What am I saying there?

We've started this journey.

We are continuing to push it down at all levels of the organization and it's coming bossams up as well. We're seeing people get excited about this. We're seeing them understand what they can do and bring ideas to the four. So do I see it, continuing? Absolutely. I see it continuing to ramp up as we go through and we'll continue to update you. For first and foremost, let us deliver on Sprint One. I won't give you an update on that towards the end of the year. Thank you.

Wael Sawan: Great. Thank you very much, Sinead. Thank you, Matt. Can we go to the next question, please, Luke?

Great, thank you very much, Shush and thank you Matt. Can we go to the next question please look?

Operator: Our next caller is Doug Leggate from Wolfe Research.

Our next caller is Doug Legate from Wolf Research.

Doug Leggate: Thank you. Good afternoon, everybody. Thanks for having me on. Wael, I wonder if I know you're gonna do the capital markets day next year and give us an update post first sprint. I wonder if I could just press a little bit on the capital flexibility. Below $22 billion this year, clearly very impressive, but it seems that that's a result of selective decisions, largely pivoting away from renewables and energy solutions. Why should we not expect that to continue? Maybe to ask the question slightly differently, is it possible the $22 to 25 billion stays in place, but the relative allocation of capital pivots back to some of the other businesses where you obviously have plenty of opportunities?

Doug Legate: Thank you, good afternoon everybody, thanks for having me on. Wael, I wonder if I know you're going to do the capital markets day next year and give us an update post for sprint. But I wonder if I could just press a little bit on the capital flexibility.

Speaker Change: Bologna, 22 billion years, clearly very impressive, but it seems that as a result of selective decisions

Largely, pivoting away from your renewables and energy solutions, why should we not expect that to continue or maybe to ask you questions slightly differently?

is a possible 22 to 25 billion stays in place but the relative allocation of capital pivots back to some of the other businesses where you obviously have plenty of opportunities.

Wael Sawan: Doug, thank you very much for that. Of course, without sort of getting into CMD 25, I think already with what we said in CMD 23, we can hopefully use that as a foundation for your question. We've been spending around the $20 billion mark organically. So we are not fundamentally changing the rhythm. What we're doing is we're trying to get more out of the capital that we are deploying. To some of the examples that Sinead gave earlier, this concept of just getting the brilliant basics, leveraging the capabilities in the organization to focus on more capital efficiency, being choiceful around what projects we go after, and then just allowing the ones that don't work to stop. If I then reflect your characterization, I would characterize things differently.

Doug, thank you very much for that.

Speaker Change: Let me.

Speaker Change: Of course, without sort of getting into CMD 25, I think already with what we said in CMD 23, we can hopefully use that as a foundation for your question.

We've been spending around the $20 billion mark organically.

Speaker Change: So we are not fundamentally changing the rhythm what we're doing is we're trying to get more out of the capital that we are deploying. To some of the examples that Chennai gave earlier, this concept of just getting the brilliant basics.

and leveraging the capabilities in the organization to focus on more capital efficiency, being truthful around what projects we go after and allowing the ones that don't work to stop.

Speaker Change: If I then reflect your characterization, I would characterize things differently.

Wael Sawan: We have said as a company we are committed to the energy transition. We have also said we will play to our competitive strength. What you are actually seeing is indeed pulling back in certain areas like renewable generation, which we have now publicly said, and in CMD 23, we're very clear on, we do not see ourselves as being advantaged in renewable generation to create material returns over others. You do see us stepping back from those areas where we have identified, and we have learned, if I'm honest with you, that we do not have those advantages. We are, however, investing in other areas. This idea that capital should be a proxy to our commitment to the energy transition, I think is flawed. We have invested $2 billion in Nature Energy.

We have said as a company we are committed to the energy transition.

Speaker Change: We have also said we will play to our competitive strength. So what you are actually seeing is indeed pulling back in certain areas like renewable generation, which we have now publicly said in CMD 23, we're very clear on.

We do not see ourselves as being advantaged in renewable generation to create material returns over others. And so you do see us stepping back from those areas where we have identified and we have learned if I'm honest with you that we do not have those advantages.

Speaker Change: Alright.

We are, however, investing in other areas.

Speaker Change: The End of the World

This idea that capital should be a proxy to our commitment to the energy transition, I think is flawed. We have invested $2 billion in nature energy. I do not plan to invest many more billions of dollars into bioagast because we've acquired the platform.

Wael Sawan: I do not plan to invest many more $ billions into biogas because we've acquired the platform. Now we need to make sure that we deliver value out of that platform before we earn the right to invest in anything more. In these nascent businesses, platforms like that, the investment we are making in Raízen, which is one of the biggest players in the world in biofuels. The investments we are making in EV, yes, albeit in the focus markets where we see pathways towards profitability. This is about really making sure that our energy transition, which indeed is going to be multi-decadal, is one that is planted on very solid foundations, and our job is to make sure that we can demonstrate those returns consistently and move at the pace and hopefully slightly ahead of what the transition happens.

Now we need to make sure that we deliver value out of that platform before we earn the right to invest in anything more. And in these nascent businesses...

Platforms like that, the investment we are making in High-Eason, which is one of the biggest players in the world in biofuels.

The investments we are making in EV, yes or be it in the focus market where we see pathways towards profitability.

So this is about really making sure that our energy transition, which indeed is going to be multi-decadele.

is one that is planted on very solid foundations and our job is to make sure that we can demonstrate those returns consistently.

and move at the pace and hopefully slightly ahead of what the transition happens, but it will require the right government policies. It will require customers leaning into this and of course it will require us to continue to drive down the cost of that delivered lower cost energy or lower carbon energy.

Wael Sawan: It will require the right government policies, it will require customers leaning into this, and of course, it will require us to continue to drive down the cost of that delivered lower cost energy or lower carbon energy. Doug, I hope that gives you a sense. The flexibility, of course, we will retain that as we really tighten on the organization and make sure that we are putting a high bar on value realization and being able to demonstrate proof points that link into the next level of investment, all by the way, in the context of having to compare that to the option of a buyback. Which, as you've heard us say time and time again, is a very attractive option. We need to be able to make sure that we're looking at both and not become myopic and looking at just one.

I hope that gives you a sense. The flexibility, of course, we will retain that as we really tighten on the organization and make sure that we are putting a high bar on value realization and being able to demonstrate proof points that link into the next.

Speaker Change: Label of Investment.

Speaker Change: All by the way, in the context of having to compare that to the option of a buyback, which as you've heard us say at the time and again, is a very attractive option. So we need to be able to make sure that we're looking at both and not become myopic and look at just one.

Wael Sawan: Thank you very much, Doug. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

Thank you very much Doug. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

Doug Leggate: Our next caller is Kim Fustier from HSBC.

Operator: Our next caller is Kim Fustier from HSBC.

Luke: Our next caller is Kim Sistier from HSBC.

Kim Fustier: Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to ask about Nigeria, since the sale of the onshore assets has been rejected by the authorities. How much due diligence do you feel you've done on the buyer? What do you think the next steps are in the process? My second question is on power. You bought a CCGT plant in the US this quarter. How much gas-fired capacity do you believe you ultimately need to underpin sales of non-intermittent clean power to your customers? Thank you.

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to ask about Nigeria since the sale of the young processes and rejected by the authorities. How much do you diligence do you feel you've done on the buyer? And would you think the next steps are in the process?

Second question is on power. You bought a CCGG plan to the US this quarter. How much gas capacity do you believe you ultimately need to underpinsail the non-intervident clean power to your customers. Thank you.

Wael Sawan: Kim, thank you for those two questions. I'll take the first one and then hand over to you, Sinead. On Nigeria, as you're aware, we've done a lot of work on this transaction, working with the authorities to, in essence, be able to create a venture that outlives the current owner. Renaissance, the acquiring consortium, will take the capabilities that we have developed and honed over decades to be able to do that. We have done extensive due diligence, and we have worked very clearly to be able to establish a transaction structure that allows us to leave with the confidence that what we expect to happen happens. Now, the application, of course, is with the regulator. It's not time-bound. The regulator can take time.

Thank you for those two questions. I'll take the first one and then handle the tuition aid on my geria

Speaker Change: As you were with done a lot of work.

on this transaction working with the authorities to in essence be able to create a venture that outlives the current owner.

Speaker Change: as Renaissance, the acquiring consortium, will take the capabilities that we have developed and honed over decades.

To be able to do that. We have done extensive, extensive due diligence and we have worked very clearly to be able to establish a transaction structure that allows us to leave with the confidence that what we expect to happen happens.

Now the application of course is with the regulator. It's not time band the regulator can take time. We are continuing to address the regulator's questions. I won't.

Wael Sawan: We are continuing to address the regulator's questions. I won't comment further than that other than to say that we continue to have confidence in our ability to be able to complete this transaction, as we demonstrate to the regulator that we have complied with all their expectations.

Speaker Change: I want to comment further than that other than to say that we continue to have confidence in our ability to be able to complete this transaction as we demonstrate to the regulator that we have we have complied with all their expectations.

Sinead Gorman: Thank you, Kim. Indeed, you refer back to the Rhode Island CCGT, which we purchased this quarter. By the way, that is a plant that we already had offtake from, so it's very naturally linked to it. Look, when we think about this, and Wael's already talked about the fact that we don't see renewable generation as being a differentiating capability. What we do see, though, on our side, of course, is the differentiation we have through our trading capabilities. When we're looking at deploying capital, that high bar that we've talked about before, it really is there. What we're looking at is in terms of the capacity or volume that we need. Now, that will depend on which market we want to be in. It very much depends on where it will be.

and thank you Kim and indeed you refer to the Rhode Island CCTV which we purchased this quarter and by the way that is a plant that we already had off-text from so it's very naturally linked to it.

With when we think about this and while we're already talked about the fact that we don't see renewable generation as being a different seas in capability, we do see, you know, on our side of course, is the different seas and we have to our trading capabilities.

Speaker Change: So when we're looking at deploying capital, not high bar that we've talked about before, it really is there.

Speaker Change: So what we're looking at is in terms of the capacity or volume that we need.

Now that will depend on which market we want to be in, so it's very much depends on where it will be. You do see it in the US, of course, when you'll see it in a few other locations you see in Australia, and there's many more, but this is more about the off-take that we can get. In some cases, it's helpful for us to have the underlying assets and therefore be able to control the dispatch. But in many cases, it's pure and simple about third-party supply that we purchase. And of course, given our credit rating and our balance sheet, we're a very attractive customer.

Sinead Gorman: You do see it in the US, of course, and you'll see it in a few other locations. You see in Australia, and there's many more, but this is more about the offtake that we can get. In some cases, it's helpful for us to have the underlying asset and therefore be able to control the dispatch. In many cases, it's pure and simple, that third-party supply that we purchase. Of course, given our credit rating and our balance sheet, we're a very attractive customer, or supplier to others as well. This is about the link and the synergy between the underlying asset and fundamentally the trading capability, which is how we have a differentiation to others. Thanks, Kim.

and all supplier to others as well. So this is about the link and the synergy between the underlying asset and fundamentally the trading capability which is how we have a differentiation to others.

Wael Sawan: Thank you, Sinead. Thank you, Kim. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

Thank you, Sinead. Thank you, Kim. Look, let's go to the next question, please.

Operator: Our next caller is Christopher Kuplent from Bank of America.

Our next caller is Christopher Cappellent from Bank of America.

Speaker 17: Thank you very much. I'll keep it very short. Just checking, Singapore is still held for sale. Can you comment a little bit around the tailwind you expect now that you've put through impairments on all those lovely items like depreciation and underlying OpEx, et cetera, and let's face it, what is an underperforming division given the macro environment that we're in, right? Just wanted whether you can comment a little bit around those tailwinds and perhaps talk us through some of the other assets that you've mentioned are always on, let's say, the test block, where you see more exciting tailwinds from underperformance, particularly thinking about your downstream positions. Thank you.

Christopher Kuplent: Thank you very much. I'll keep it very short. Just checking, Singapore is still held for sale. Can you comment a little bit around the tailwind you expect now that you've put through impairments on all those lovely items like depreciation and underlying OpEx, et cetera, and let's face it, what is an underperforming division given the macro environment that we're in, right? Just wanted whether you can comment a little bit around those tailwinds and perhaps talk us through some of the other assets that you've mentioned are always on, let's say, the test block, where you see more exciting tailwinds from underperformance, particularly thinking about your downstream positions. Thank you.

Christopher Cappellent: Thank you very much. I'll keep it very short, just checking Singapore is still held for sale.

Christopher Cappellent: Can you comment a little bit around the pale wind you expect now that you've put through in payments?

on all those lovely items like depreciation and underlying optics, etc. and let's face this.

Speaker Change: and what is an underperforming division given the macro environment that we're in, right? So just wanted whether you can comment a little bit around those tailwinds and perhaps talk us through some of the other assets that you've mentioned are always on.

Let's say the test block where you see more exciting tailwinds from the performance, particularly thinking about your downstream positions. Thank you.

Wael Sawan: Thanks, Christopher. Do you wanna take that?

Sinead Gorman: Yeah, happy to. A couple of things in there, Chris, as well. Singapore, as you say, it is held for sale. We're in the middle of a turnaround at the moment, so team's very much focused on getting that over the line. Of course, looking to be able to come back and say it's completed likely into the new year, but very much focused on that. Taking chemicals and products, which is really what you're referring to because we've talked about marketing and the very strong performance that we're seeing there. You know, I will just simply say great earnings this quarter in terms of over $1 billion for our marketing business. Let's talk about chemicals and products a little bit. Refining margins, of course, were down, not surprising as you come out of maintenance season, as you know.

Thanks Christopher, you want to do that? Yeah, happy to. So a couple of things in there and Chris as well. So Singapore as you say it is held for sale. We're in the middle of a turnaround at the moment, so teams very much focused on getting that over the line. Of course, I'm looking to be able to come back and say it's completed likely into the new year. But very much focused on that.

and Cometallum products, which is really what you're referring to because we've talked about marketing and the very strong performance that we're seeing there. I will just simply say great earnings, this quarter in terms of everyone billion for our marketing business, but let's talk about chemicals and products for a little bit.

So refining margins of course were done, not surprising as you can imagine if it makes them season as you know, so that is challenging 28% time versus the previous quarter in terms of that and a bit of lower demand. On the chemical side of course it is...

Sinead Gorman: That is challenging, 28% down versus the previous quarter in terms of that and a bit of lower demand. On the chemical side, of course, it is a depressed market in terms of the margins. What are we actually looking at there? Well, in terms of that, what we're seeing is that actually margin, that ICM is in the lower band of 150, which is what we said at CMD. That's at the lower end of it. Need to remember that. And of course Singapore will leave, and that will change that number as well. In terms of the portfolio, we've got the external, so the macro in terms of the lower band.

and the press market in terms of the margins. So what are we actually looking at there? Well in terms of that, what we're seeing is that actually margin that ICM is the lower bind of 150, which is what we said at CMD. So that's the lower end of it.

for me to remember that.

So, of course Singapore will leave and that will change that number as well. So, in terms of the portfolios, we've got the external, so the macro in terms of the lower bonds. We've got the portfolio in terms of Singapore, but also what we're doing in Europe, where we're looking to do economic optimisation of specific units. So, we're doing the self-help, we're making sure that we run things when it makes sense rather than anything else.

Sinead Gorman: We've got the portfolio in terms of Singapore, but also what we're doing in Europe, where we're looking to do economic optimization on specific units. We're doing the self-help. We're making sure that we run things when it makes sense rather than anything else. Of course, there's Monaca. In terms of Monaca, what are you seeing there? You saw Q1 basically being all about getting it up and running. Q2, about making sure it was operational and we could actually say that. Q3 being about making sure it's predictable and that we're getting more products coming through, and that's what will go on. This will be about reliability and getting those up and running. You'll see that start to flow through the numbers as well. That's really the chemical and product side.

Speaker Change: and then of course is Monaco.

and in terms of Renaka, what are you seeing there? You saw Q1 basically being all of by getting it up running. Q2 about making sure it was operational and we could actually say that. Q3 being about making sure it's predictable and that we're getting more products coming through and that's what we'll go on. This will be about reliability and getting those up and running. So you'll see that start.

Speaker Change: Start to slow through the numbers as well.

Sinead Gorman: You can see we're really focused in on improving the ROACE, which is in our chemicals and products business. Of course, marketing, exactly the same thing. We're making sure that we get delivery in sight. You've seen some of the tail coming off and Wael referenced earlier, Pakistan, et cetera. That's, you know, some 400 sites that have left the portfolio, which were lower ROACE in our portfolio. We're also very focused on cost and making sure we drive the business to deliver exactly what they should be doing from a competitive perspective out of the capital they've already employed. Then on the third side, of course, renewables. We've talked about generation.

So that's really the chemical from product side. So you can see we're really focused in on improving the rouachy, which is in our chemical from product business. And of course marketing exactly the same thing. We're making sure that we get delivery insights so you've seen some of the tail coming off and while reference directly our Pakistan, the Tetris, that's...

There are some 400 sites that have left the portfolio which were lower-watching and are portfolio.

We're also very focused on cost and making sure we drive the business to deliver exactly what they should be doing from a competitive perspective. I hope the cattle have already employed.

Sinead Gorman: I think Wael said it very well about our renewable and generation capacity and moving away from that more towards where we have really strong capabilities linked to trading, which will mean less capital employed in that as well. I hope that gives you a bit of a feel for it, Chris.

And then on the third side of course, renewables. We've talked about generation, I think, while said it very well about our renewable and generation capacity and moving away from that more towards where we have really strong capabilities linked to trading, which will be in less capital employed than that as well. So I hope that gives you a bit of a bit of a feel for Earth's Chris.

Wael Sawan: Thanks, Sinead, and thank you for the question, Christopher. As you know, we're literally just passing the midway point of our sprint, so still some way to go to be able to get to where we need to get to. Let's go to the next question please, Luke.

and thank you for the question Christopher, as you know we're literally just passing the midway point of our sprint so still some way to go to the able to get to where we need to get to.

Speaker Change: Let's go to the next question, please look.

Operator: Our final caller today is Martijn Ratz from Morgan Stanley.

Our final call today is Marta Andrath's from Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 18: Hi. Hello. Well, most of the important questions have been asked, but there's one left that I'm somewhat intrigued about, which I hope you can help me with. I noticed that refinery throughput was down about 100,000 barrels a day or so, quarter-over-quarter. Also the guidance for that line item for Q4 doesn't imply much of a rebound to sort of suggest that refinery utilization could sort of continue to tail off a little bit. I think many of us are trying to figure out sort of where exactly we are in terms of refining margins versus the level that would trigger economic run cuts.

Martijn Rats: Hi. Hello. Well, most of the important questions have been asked, but there's one left that I'm somewhat intrigued about, which I hope you can help me with. I noticed that refinery throughput was down about 100,000 barrels a day or so, quarter-over-quarter. Also the guidance for that line item for Q4 doesn't imply much of a rebound to sort of suggest that refinery utilization could sort of continue to tail off a little bit. I think many of us are trying to figure out sort of where exactly we are in terms of refining margins versus the level that would trigger economic run cuts.

Hi, hello. I'm looking at the most important question that I've been asked. But I was wondering, what's the tweet about? I hope you could help me with it. I noticed that refined refruppu was down about 100,000 barrels a day or so. Quarton Quarton Quarton. The guidance for that line item for the fourth quarter doesn't imply much of a rebound to suggest that refined re-utilization could sort of...

I think many of us are trying to figure out where exactly we are in terms of refining margins.

Speaker 18: I was wondering, in that 100,000 barrels a day reduction in refinery throughput, is there an element of economic run cuts in there? Or is it all just explained by maintenance and operational issues?

Martijn Rats: I was wondering, in that 100,000 barrels a day reduction in refinery throughput, is there an element of economic run cuts in there? Or is it all just explained by maintenance and operational issues?

Speaker Change: The level is that we trigger economic run cuts. So I was wondering in that 100,000-ballow-day reduction in refinery throughput. Is there an element of economic run cuts in there? Or is it all just explained by maintenance and operational issues?

Wael Sawan: I'm happy to take that, very quickly. I think what you've seen, Martijn, in Q3 is a combination of things. The start of the quarter had softer than hoped for performance, particularly unplanned downtime. The latter part of it had quite a bit of maintenance. Actually, what you're seeing going into Q4 is some big turnarounds. Pernis, for example, standing out as the biggest one, which would essentially flow through the entire Q4. You are not seeing material run cuts as part of that refining guidance. It's much more the choices of when we want to be able to run our maintenance and turnarounds.

I'm happy to take that very quickly so I think what you've seen more time in the third quarter is a combination of things. The start of the quarter had softer than hoped for performance, particularly unplanned downtime. And then the latter part of it had quite a bit of...

Maintenance, actually what you're seeing going into Q4 is some big turnerons, pernits for example, standing at as the biggest one which would essentially flow through the entire quarter.

of Q4. So you are not seeing material run cuts as part of that refining guidance. It's much more of the choices of when we want to be able to run our maintenance and turnerance.

Wael Sawan: Anything you want to add to that one, Sinead, before I close off?

Speaker 19: No. Uh-huh.

Sinead Gorman: No. Uh-huh.

Wael Sawan: I'm sure, Martin, if you need, there's a sort of long list of where the other maintenance activities and turnaround activities are over the coming months in our refining footprint, including, for example, Bukom itself is going through one, Sarnia, Rheinland in Germany, Norco in the US. There's quite a bit of activity going as we speak. Thank you very much for the question, Martin. Thank you, Luke, for helping me navigate the hour. Thank you to all of you for your questions and for joining the call. As you've heard, we've delivered a strong quarter.

and I'm sure more time if you need there's a sort of long list of where the other

Maintenance Activities and Turnerant Activities are over the coming months in our refining footprint, including for example, Bookham itself is going through one Sarnia, Ryeland in Germany, Norco in the US, so there's quite a bit of activity going as we speak.

Speaker Change: Thank you very much for the question Martyn. Thank you Luke for helping me navigate the hour. And thank you to all of you for your questions and for joining the call. As you've heard, we've delivered a strong quarter.

Wael Sawan: We announced another $3.5 billion of share buybacks, which makes us 12 quarters in a row with announced buybacks of at least $3 billion, as we are building a track record of delivery and aiming to be the investment case through the energy transition. Wishing you all a very pleasant end of the week. Thank you for joining us.

Speaker Change: We announced another three and a half billion dollars of share buybacks, which makes this 12-quarters in a row, with an answer bybacks of at least three billion dollars. As we are building a track record of delivery and aiming to be the investment case through the energy transition.

Speaker Change: Wishing you all a very pleasant end of the week. Thank you for joining us.

The End

I'm going to the next one.

Speaker Change: [inaudible]

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