Q3 2024 WEC Energy Group Inc Earnings Call
Good afternoon and welcome to WEC Energy Group's conference call for 3rd quarter 2024 results. This call is being recorded for rebroadcast and all participants are any listen only mode at this time.
After the presentation, the conference will be open to analysts for questions and answers. In conjunction with this call, a package of detailed financial information is posted at wacenergygroup.com. A replay will be available approximately two hours after the conclusion of this call.
The Fourth Conference, called begins, please note that all statements in the presentation, other than historical facts, are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that are subject to change at any time.
Such statements are based on management's expectations at the time they are made.
In addition to the assumptions and other factors referred to in connection with the statements, factors described in WEC Energy Group's latest Form 10-K and subsequent reports files with the Securities and Exchange Commission could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated. During the discussions, referenced earnings per share will be based on diluted earnings per share unless otherwise noted. This call also will include non-GAAP financial information.
Speaker Change: The company has provided reconciliations to the most directly comparable gap measures in the materials posted on its website for this conference call. And now it's my pleasure to introduce Scott Lauber, President and Chief Executive Officer of WEC Energy Group.
Scott Lauber: Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today as we review our results for the third quarter of 2024. Here with me are Xia Liu, our Chief Financial Officer, and Bess Strzoka, Senior Vice President and Chief of Corporate Communications and Investor Relations.
As you saw from our news release this morning, we reported third quarter 2024 adjusted earnings of 82 cents per share.
This excludes a charge of six cents per share related to the disallowance of certain 2016 capital expenditures under the qualifying infrastructure plant rider in Illinois.
With this solid quarter, we remain on track for a strong 2024.
Our focus on executing the fundamentals of our business is creating real value for our customers and stockholders.
Today we're reaffirming our earnings guidance for the year on an adjusted basis. The range is $4.80 to $4.90 a share. Of course this assumes normal weather through the remainder of 2024.
We continue to see strong foundation of growth in the region. The unemployment rate in Wisconsin stands at 2.9%, continuing a long-running trend below the national average.
Speaker Change: Microsoft is making good progress on its large data center complex in southeastern Wisconsin.
The company has continued to increase its land holdings as part of this development. It is reported that Microsoft now owns more than 1,900 acres, up from 1,300 acres at the beginning of the year, and work is well underway.
Speaker Change: We're seeing development elsewhere in the state as well. Amazon, for example, opened a 1.1 million square foot warehouse in Kenosha earlier this year.
The company is growing steadily with additional distribution facilities and is also starting to use electric delivery vans in its fleet.
Speaker Change: This highlights the strength and the potential of our local economy and underscores the need for the investments in our updated capital plan.
Speaker Change: And speaking of capital plan, we're very excited to roll out the plan for the period 2025 to 2029.
As you may have seen from our announcement this morning, we expect to invest $28 billion over the next five years. This is the largest capital plan in our history, an increase of $4.3 billion above our previous five-year plan.
That's more than an 18% increase.
Speaker Change: Once again, a major factor in our plan is the economic growth we're seeing in southeastern Wisconsin, particularly in what we call the I-94 corridor between Milwaukee and the Illinois state line.
This plant supports 1,800 megawatts of additional demand over the next five years.
Speaker Change: That's an incremental 400 megawatts from our previous plan.
In our new five-year plan, we expect our asset-based growth to an average rate of 8.8% a year. This supports our long-term projected earnings per share growth of six and a half to seven percent a year on a compound annual basis.
Speaker Change: As I mentioned, we've increased our capital plan by $4.3 billion.
Speaker Change: driven by an increase in regulated electric generation, transmission, and distribution and partially offset by a reduction in energy infrastructure.
Let me give you a few updates on the details.
Over the next five years, we'll continue to transform our power generation fleet to support economic growth, reliability, and compliance with EPA rules by investing in renewables and natural gas generation.
Between 2025 and 2029, we plan to increase our investment in regulated renewables by $2.1 billion over our prior plan.
In total, we plan to invest $9.1 billion in 2,900 megawatts of solar, 900 megawatts of wind, and almost 600 megawatts of battery storage. That adds up to 4,400 megawatts, more than quadrupling our carbon-free generation from where we are today.
These resources save on fuel costs and provide benefits to customers through tax credits.
Speaker Change: To support economic growth and system reliability when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine, and on those extreme weather days, we need dispatchable resources.
We expect to spend an incremental 900 million dollars on modern, efficient natural gas generation over the next five years versus the prior plan.
This includes both combustion turbines and reciprocating internal combustion engines, or RICE units.
Speaker Change: Also we plan to invest an additional four hundred million dollars in liquefied natural gas capacity for another two PCF facility. This will be used to meet customer demand
for Heating and Ensure Gas Supply for Power Generation.
In addition, American Transmission Company will be adding transmission capabilities to serve the region's robust economic growth, connecting new renewables, and strengthening the system.
Our plan calls for us to invest 3.2 billion dollars in that effort between 2025 and 2029. This represents a 200 million dollar increase from the previous plan.
And to help assure reliability and support economic growth, we're continuing to invest in our distribution networks with an additional 700 million dollars in the plan.
Given the significant investment opportunity in our regulated businesses, we have reduced our planned investments in our infrastructure segment by 800 million dollars compared to the last plan. This leaves us approximately 400 million dollars in the plan for next year.
And today I'm pleased to announce our plan to acquire a 90% interest in Hardin Solar III Energy Park located in Ohio.
We expect to invest approximately $410 million to add 250 megawatts of renewable energy to our infrastructure portfolio when the projects come online, currently expected in the first quarter of 2025.
Speaker Change: Our future is bright, investment opportunity has never been stronger, and we're focused on execution. We look forward to providing more detail on our plan in just a few weeks at the EEI conference.
In Wisconsin, rate reviews are nearly complete for test years 2025 and 2026.
All testimony and hearings are concluded in the case and we expect a decision by the end of the year with new rates effective January 1st, 2025.
As you know, in Michigan, the Public Service Commission has now approved the settlements in the 2025 rate cases for both Michigan Gas Utilities and Upper Michigan Energy Resources, each with an ROE of 9.86%.
and in Illinois were actively engaged in two dockets.
Speaker Change: One is the review of the safety modernization program. The next steps are an ALJ proposed order at the end of November, final briefings to the ICC in December, and the Commission's final decision expected in the first quarter of 2025.
The other docket is an evaluation of the future of natural gas in Illinois, which was initially planned to conclude next year. The ICC has extended this docket into 2026. Of course, we'll keep you updated on any further developments.
Now I'll turn to Xia to provide you with more details on our financial results and our financing plans.
Xia Liu: Thank you, Scott.
Turning now to earnings. Our third quarter 2024 adjusted earnings were 82 cents per share. This excludes the six cents per share charge related to the disallowance of certain 2016 capital expenditures under the QIP rider in Illinois.
While this was a decrease of 18 cents per share quarter over quarter, we did exceed our Q3 guidance range, driven by more favorable September weather, financing, and timing of tax items compared to the guidance.
As Scott indicated, we remain on track to meet our 2024 Adjusted Earnings Guidance.
Now let's look at our quarter over quarter variances. Our earnings package includes a comparison of adjusted third quarter results on page 16. I'll walk through the significant drivers.
Starting with our utility operations, adjusted earnings in the third quarter of 2024 were 18 cents lower when compared to 2023.
This decrease was driven by the Illinois rate design change, higher O&M, depreciation and amortization and interest expense.
Speaker Change: These items more than offset favorable weather, timing of fuel expense, taxes, and other items.
Specifically on weather, compared to normal conditions, we estimate that weather had a two cent positive impact in the third quarter of 2024 compared to a one cent positive impact in 2023.
Also, as I reminded you on the last few calls, with the rate design changes at People's Gas, base revenues are now more concentrated in the first and fourth quarters when natural gas usage is the highest.
This shift resulted in lower third quarter earnings when compared to the prior year.
Speaker Change: Before I turn to earnings at the other segment, let me briefly discuss our weather normal electric sales for the quarter.
Sales from residential and small C&I segments both slightly increased compared to Q3 last year.
Overall, year-to-date, retail electric volumes are in line with our forecast.
Speaker Change: Looking at ATC, continued capital investment contributed an incremental penny to Q3 earnings compared to 2023.
Remember, we have been recognizing earnings at 10.38% ROE.
I'll discuss in a few minutes that we have some tailwind in Q4 related to FERC's recent decision of 10.48% ROE.
Speaker Change: And in our energy infrastructure segment, earnings improved 6 cents in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the third quarter of 2023.
Finally, you'll see that earnings at our corporate and other segments decreased 7 cents as a result of the impact of tax timing and higher interest expense.
Speaker Change: As Scott noted, we are reaffirming our 2024 Annual Guidance on an adjusted basis.
Speaker Change: That range is $4.80 to $4.90 per share.
This includes October weather and assumed normal weather for the remainder of the year.
Speaker Change: However, looking ahead, we have some tailwinds in Q4 this year.
This will help us to achieve our Adjusted Earnings Guidance.
Speaker Change: For example, as I mentioned just now, we have been recognizing earnings at APC assuming a 10.38% ROE.
Speaker Change: With FERC's decision on the 10.48%, we will be able to unwind a reserve at ATC in Q4 to reflect this change.
This item is about five cents a share that we have included in our guidance.
And recall, weather was 7 cents unfavorable in Q4 last year. Assuming normal weather for the remainder of this year, it also should be a tailwind.
Speaker Change: Overall, we remain on track to meet our 2024 Adjusted Earnings Guidance.
Speaker Change: Now, turning to our financing plan.
For 2024, we continue to utilize Dividend Reinvestment and Employee Benefit Plans to issue common equity.
Also, we have now formally put in place an ATM program which we plan to tap into during this quarter.
Speaker Change: Overall, we still project that our ComEquity issuance will be up to $200 million for 2024.
Beyond 2024, Scott has outlined our new five-year capital plan. I'll spend a few minutes discussing our anticipated financing plan.
You can find this information on page 22 of the earnings package.
As you can see on the chart, over the next five years, we expect cash from operations to fund $18.5 to $19.5 billion, or about 60% of our cash need.
About 9.5 to 10 billion dollars or 31% of the funding is expected to come from incremental debt.
Speaker Change: This could include some junior subordinated notes or other instruments with equity content.
, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Speaker Change: As I said previously, the cadence of common equity is a function of capital. Given the strong capital plan in 2025, we expect common equity to be between $700-$800 million.
Speaker Change: All in all, compared to the prior five-year plan, we expect about 50% of the $4.3 billion additional capital to be financed with increased equity content.
Speaker Change: Finally, as shown on page 21 of the earnings package, through our capital allocation, we expect the percent of asset base in our regulated electric businesses to grow faster over the next five years.
This is driven by the strong economic development and demand growth in Wisconsin and our continued energy transition plans.
At the same time, the percent of asset base in gas distribution and contracted renewables is expected to decline.
Particularly, you can see that we expect our asset base in Illinois to decline from 16% in 2023 to 10% in 2029, with only 9% at People's Gas.
In closing, we're excited about our company's future and the investment opportunities ahead of us.
With that, I'll turn it back to Scott. Thank you, Xia.
Finally, a quick reminder about the dividend. I expect we'll provide a 2025 dividend plan and earnings guidance in December.
We continue to target a payout ratio of 65 to 70 percent of earnings. We're positioned well within the range, so I expect our dividend growth will continue to be in line with the growth of the earnings per share.
Speaker Change: Overall we're on track and focused on providing value for our customers and our stockholders. Operator, we're now ready for the question and answer portion of the call.
Speaker Change: Now we will take your questions. The question and answer session will be conducted electronically. To ask a question, please press the star key followed by the digit 1 on your phone. If you are using a speaker phone, turn off your mute function to allow your signal to reach our equipment. We will take as many questions as time permits. Once again, press star and then 1 on your telephone to ask a question. Your first question comes from a line of Char-Pereza from Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open.
Hey Scott, hey Shaw. Hey Shaw.
Speaker Change: How you doing? Good. All right, not too bad, not too bad.
Scott let me just I know this is kind of a repeated question for me but have to ask just given the size in your kind of resource mix
want to just touch on Point Beach for a sec. I mean obviously many of the infrastructure segment PPAs roll off around the time of the Point Beach PPA. Are those kind of viable alternatives?
Speaker Change: If you can't get there with NextEra, would you look to backstop them with dispatchable capacity so some incremental spend there? Just directionally, how is that bid-ask progressing?
Speaker Change: Sure, and as just a reminder for everyone, our PPA with Point Beach ends.
Speaker Change: You know, I think the one contract ended December of 2030, the other is March of 2033.
Speaker Change: And like we talked about, we have been in very constructive discussions on the Point Beach with Nextera. You know, we're making good progress on both sides.
You know, we've been really busy up here with the Wisconsin rate case. I think they've been busy down there with some hurricane activity. So we're making good progress. More to come. I expect you'll see more in the next, oh, six months. But you know, lining up really well, we think, for everybody.
Speaker Change: Okay, that's helpful. And then obviously, it's got very healthy CapEx update. I just, I'm not getting a strong sense on...
Speaker Change: why we saw, you know, sort of that CapEx reduction on...
on the infrastructure side. I think it's been...
some time there's been some sort of a de-emphasis of that segment. I just want to get a better sense on what's driving it. Is it sort of a capital allocation return issue? Is the kind of demand for contracted renewables slowed? I guess, what exactly is going on in that segment? Should we kind of start tempering our expectations there?
Speaker Change: No, I mean what we looked at in last year when we went through the plan we had actually reduced that segment also just because the amount of economic development.
And then...
as what happened in Illinois, and we reduced our capital plan there. We said we were going to spend about $800 million incremental, and the last contract we announced here hits all our investment profiles.
Speaker Change: and it fills that amount of the $800 million we said we're going to do. We just have a lot of capital within the regulated utility with the economic development going on in Wisconsin and we just want to concentrate on that.
The economics have been good in the infrastructure segment. It's just we've got a lot to deploy here in Wisconsin, so we're going to concentrate on that.
okay that is perfect thanks guys we'll see you in a in a week in Florida and congrats on getting Warner appreciate it
Speaker Change: Oh, absolutely. Thank you.
Your next question comes from a line of Jillian DeMoulin-Smith from Jeffries. Your line is open. Hey, good afternoon team. How you guys doing?
Good. How you doing, Julian?
A few different options that have been put on the table here and there's a staff rack out there and how do you think about that option three? I suppose about seven billion-ish dollars through 2040. How does that compare with what you guys are updating here today and
Speaker Change: Is there any upside vis-a-vis what you guys are betting against that proposed outcome here?
Speaker Change: I'll let you guys comment on that.
Speaker Change: Sure, that's a that's a good question. And option three...
Just to get everyone on the same page, option three has the spending and it's the lowest spending option. It's the preferred option by PGL. And then staff also came out, ICC staff came out and recommended option three also.
When you look at what we put together in the five-year plan, and you know, Sean, I don't like to have much, any white space, if any.
in our five-year plan. So we took the capital down just to the emergency work.
Speaker Change: and the work needed for facility relocates.
So that's about $90 million a year.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
in our plan for the next five years. So if this plan would get picked up, I think that could be an upside of maybe, oh, $100 million to $150 million, maybe $200 million a year. But remember, if they would pick that, we'd ramp down those projects very quickly, what we were doing. So it'd take a while to ramp back up.
But we took basically just the bare minimum and put in our current five-year plan. So there would be upside if one of these options is selected.
Speaker Change: Does that answer your question?
Go ahead.
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Sullivan from Wolf Research. Your line is open.
Michael Sullivan: Yeah, hey, good afternoon.
Speaker Change: Hi, Michael.
Michael Sullivan: Hey, Scott. Maybe I just wanted to ask for a little more color on the Wisconsin case that you have pending and maybe why you weren't able to settle there, what some of the sticking points might be, and how you're feeling about the final order coming up.
Sure, sure. So, you know, we are extremely far in the Wisconsin case. When you think about the Wisconsin case, we've gone through all the hearings. In fact, the final decision matrix
just came out the other day.
Michael Sullivan: So we're about as far along in the Wisconsin case that we've ever been this time of the year. So right now the next step is the commission making a decision, which they usually do, you know, historically it's been the first week in December, the first or second week in December, but they're far along and they've got everything ready for a decision.
Speaker Change: Now...
The idea of a settlement and we've talked a little bit about settlement. We're very happy where the staff position came out
Speaker Change: and deciding, going through the decision matrix. So we just weren't able to come up to a settlement, but I'm not concerned about that. I think overall, our commission is filled with really balanced individuals that understand the importance of reliability and the economic development in the region.
We're ready for a decision. We just couldn't get there in the settlement but that's that's not all bad either. I think everyone wants to see what's going on here.
Okay. Does that answer your question? Yeah, it does. Yeah, very helpful, Scott. And then I just had two questions just on the earnings side.
On this ATC ROE that you're going to book in Q4, I guess, how should we think about
Speaker Change: Why you are not raising guidance for that? Or what would have happened if you weren't able to book that?
No, that's a good question. And, you know, things move around in our forecasts.
and it came through there. We just got a little bit of timing of some other expenses that we anticipate maybe would come through a little bit better but timing we got to make sure we execute on it. So factoring it all in and we went through and factored everything through here and comfortable with keeping the guidance where it's at.
Speaker Change: Okay, and then the last one, just, uh, oh, sure, go ahead. Michael, this is Xia. Just remember, we had a really mild first quarter. Um, year-to-date, we're 6 cents behind on weather. So, like Scott said, there are lots of things, um, that have kind of developed throughout the year, and these 5 cents will help us offset some of the weather deficit.
Speaker Change: Okay, appreciate that caller. And then the last one for me, just to
Speaker Change: How do we think about the potential to get back in that 6.5% to 7% range after kind of being short of that this year?
Speaker Change: based on your
Speaker Change: Sure.
Speaker Change: Sure, and our $6.50 to $7.00, and we are still using the 2023 base. I think it was $4.60 as our starting point for our guidance, because last year, because of the Illinois decision and some adjustments we had to do there and timing of when we could do our capital investments.
Speaker Change: So we're keeping that 2023 base this year as we look at our long-term guidance. We will, you know, we've got to get through the rate case here and we'll come out with our plan next in December after we get through that.
Speaker Change: Okay, thank you very much.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from a line of Neil Colton from Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is open.
Hi guys, how are you doing?
Speaker Change: Good. Hey, Neil.
Neil Colton: So, quick question, Scott. You opened up talking about the Microsoft, you know, that they acquired more land. I think you said 1,900 acres. Is that correct in total?
Correct, correct. So at the beginning of the year they started about 1,300 and now they're up to 1,900 acres.
Speaker Change: Okay, perfect. And then in terms of the CapEx refresh, I know you're kind of waiting.
Speaker Change: on Microsoft to lay out additional plans, what they intend to do.
Speaker Change: Was there anything in this CapEx revision that sort of incorporated potential spend for what they might do, you know, to some extent, or is that still all to be determined all on the come?
So, what this has in, and what we talked about is...
Speaker Change: 1,800 megawatts of capacity for the region over this five-year period, which includes Microsoft, which includes
Speaker Change: So, all of that is factored into our five-year plan, but just like many other companies, we are getting inquiries from a variety of other data centers. We just don't come out with a number until we really feel comfortable that it's actually going to happen.
If there would be any upside from any future stuff that would probably be in those outer half of the plan But based on the conversations, there's just a lot of good discussion on continued economic development in the region
Speaker Change: Okay, okay, got it. And then, I mean, so just, and maybe there's only limited as to what you can say, but like, you know, if Microsoft were to formally announce a phase two, would that be something that would necessitate more capacity?
Speaker Change: I would have to see what their, I mean Microsoft is, we'll let Microsoft make their their announcements.
working with them on the demand. I'm not sure if that actually includes some other phases or not. They just, you know, we work with them on kind of the demand over the period and kind of keep it inside baseball here unfortunately, but that's that's the way they want to do it, which is fine.
Speaker Change: Okay, thank you very much.
All right. Thanks, Neil.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from a line of Andrew Wiesel from Scotiabank. Your line is open.
Speaker Change: Hey everybody, good afternoon.
Hey, Andrew.
One I wanted to clarify was electric generation.
You showed that the total on page 18 went up by $3.7 billion, but the commentary on page 17 really only calls out $3 billion. You show the regulated renewables and the natural gas generation. We're missing about $700 million. So what else is in that bucket?
And then it looks like there's about a 100 million increase for natural gas distribution.
Would I be correct? Is that just higher day-to-day spending and cost inflation, or have you made some assumptions around regulation and policy changes in Illinois compared to the assumptions you made when you gave the last update in February?
Speaker Change: Yeah, good questions. Really quick analysis of the numbers.
of the Service Territory of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota as it relates to adding capital for good customer growth and just other...
Speaker Change: other area expansion. I think
As you look at the PHMSA rules, there could be some requirements that more capital is needed until we see the final PHMSA rules. It's hard to really handicap the final number.
Speaker Change: So, that's really a plus in the other areas, a little decline in Illinois.
And in the generation, you're exactly right, there's probably about another 700 million dollars. That's in a variety of projects across the enterprise.
Speaker Change: from looking at...
you know, uprating a wind farm to get some additional production tax credits.
to adding some more resilience and a few of our generating plants to looking at other different types of backup storage just to make sure we have that additional resilience. So it's a variety of items all in that generation area just so we can make sure we continue to hit that demand.
Okay great, that's very helpful. Then on the transmission side, you increased it by 200 million. Is that all related to near-term economic development? Would I be correct in assuming that the MISO-TRON 2 stuff is more outside of this forecast period?
Speaker Change: Yeah, you're exactly right. More of the the MISO Trench 2 is going to be after this, most likely after this five-year plan. Maybe a little bit at the very end, but most of it's going to be after the five-year plan. But we'll know more of that and the final numbers come December.
Very good. Then one last one here on the load growth. I think you said you're now expecting 1800 megawatts of incremental load. That's up from 1400 megawatts. I don't think you commented on what that means in terms of percentage load growth forecasts. Is that something that you can share now or is that something you plan to share at EEI?
Sure, sure. We can talk about it now.
Speaker Change: What when it looks at a megawatt hour basis, and I think these are probably on the low side But we extended that four and a half to five percent electric sales growth through 2029 So we continue to see the volumes on a megawatt hour basis and on a megawatt basis
You know, very significant demand increase, and I really look at the demand as being a key component because that's really where we have to build the dispatchable resources to to make sure we have enough demand and capacity hit on those peak days.
Does that make sense? Yep. Thank you so much.
Our next question comes from the line of Sophie Karp from KeyBank Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. Absolutely, Sophie.
Sophie Karp: So, you know, it's a great update all around, right? Your load growth is going higher.
Very, very healthy capital update as well. Wisconsin rate case is in its kind of last innings already. Is there any reason why, I guess, you wouldn't raise the EPS growth rate when you do?
Sophie Karp: Refresh your guidance in December. Are there any offsetting factors we are missing here that would prevent that from happening?
Thank you.
That's a good question and when we looked at it, you know, we did, you know, we added capital in Wisconsin, we also reduced it in the WEC infrastructure, but also looked at Illinois and reducing it.
So, as we looked at it and add in the equity needs and the debt needs, we're very comfortable at that six and a half to seven. We do have to get through the Wisconsin rate case.
Sophie Karp: and really hear what goes on in our safety modernization program in Illinois, which we'll hear in the first quarter of next year. But it's really just being realistic on the financing plans associated with our capital spending and taking down capital in some of the other areas.
Got it. Okay, thank you. This is all from me. We'll see you at AI.
Sounds good. Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of dear guest Chopra from Evercore ISI, your line is open.
Hey team, good afternoon. I got some Haribo gummy beers sitting outside my front door. That's my trick-or-treat.
Excellent, excellent.
Thank you for sourcing the community. There you go, and they are sourced from Milwaukee. Okay, so... Fantastic.
So, a couple questions, Xia, just...
I know you talked about 50%
Sophie Karp: of the
that the capital funded through equity, but when I compare plan, the prior plan over the current plan, the CapEx has gone up 4.3 billion.
But the equity has only gone up roughly a billion. It's gone up from like 2 unchanged to 3 billion at the midpoint of the current guidance range.
Speaker Change: So maybe just why is it I would have thought that the equity is a lot higher. Maybe just help us bridge the two plan equity issuances, equity issuances between the two plans, please.
Yeah, I'd be happy to. So, the last plan, remember, the range was $195 to $235 billion. This plan, the range is $2.7 to $3.2 billion. To your point, it's roughly about $800 million increase in common equity.
We also are adding some holding company debt, particularly using maybe some hybrids.
Sophie Karp: that would give us 50% of the equity content. So if you include that.
Plus the $800 million of common equity, that's around $2 billion increase in equity content. So our capital has gone up $4.3 billion, we're adding a little over $2 billion of equity content, including the $800 million of common equity.
Speaker Change: Got it. As always, that is crystal clear. Thank you, Xia. And then maybe just quickly, I wanted to follow up on Delilah Solar. Is the plan that still that it completes construction and goes into service by the end of the year, is that still on track?
Yes, that is correct. Delilah and Maple Flats are both on track by the end of the year.
all right thank you so much appreciate the time
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonette from JP Morgan. Your line is open.
Jeremy Tonette: Hi, good afternoon.
Speaker Change: Good afternoon.
Happy Halloween everyone. I just wanted to go into the addition of gas generation and how that contributes to LNG operations overall. If you have any thoughts you could share there.
sure sure and we you know we're adding more gas generation and as you can imagine you know we want to make sure that we have that dispatchable gas
Our own gas within the state of Wisconsin to make sure we can run the generation and keep the houses warm on the gas side So we added another 2 BCF in our plan
compressor issue that really made the state of Wisconsin really thin on natural gas. So having those LNG tanks are going to be very critical to keep that reliability.
Got it. Very helpful there. And then, going a bit further here with, you know, there's a big call on generation broadly in the country, and just wondering if you could provide us thoughts on reserve margins, how it stands now, where it could be going.
And as it relates to gas generation, coal generation, coal in particular, does it affect retirement timelines given this greater need and at the same time, could CCS be part of the answer here? Just wondering if you have thoughts on these topics.
and just to make sure we're staying ahead of the reserve margin that's needed for MISO. And they've continued to evolve their rules as more renewables.
appropriately as more renewables get on the system to make sure they have seasonal demand and the load following type of needs here and the capacity. So that is very important for us as we continue to grow out our capacity plans.
What was your second part? Carbon capture with regards to gas generation and just coal plant retirements in general.
And in the carbon capture...
You know for us we don't have any natural place to store the carbon here in Wisconsin and
Speaker Change: You know, if we had to do carbon capture, we think it would cost our customers... Oh...
Speaker Change: One to two billion dollars more
in order to do carbon capture and haul it someplace that you look at.
Speaker Change: you know, where you're going to store it, and then you have the transmission of it. So we, of course, looked at it. Is it possible? It just did not seem viable and cost effective for our customers versus the plan that we're developing here and we laid out in front of you. And when you think about the coal retirements, we already retired, you know, Oak Creek 5 and 6.
Speaker Change: The other units, 7 and 8, we plan to retire at the end of 2025. And we're doing that because we're putting in some of the more efficient gas generation. And to be quite honest, if we weren't going to...
retire seven and eight we'd have to add additional
Speaker Change: additional capital to those
Speaker Change: plants to have them extend longer and add to carbon capture.
Those that are still planning to be in retirement, some of the plants like Weston 3, we plan on retiring by 2031. We all continue to look, does it make sense to use natural gas there or some other fuel? I don't know if it would be economical or not, but it really hasn't adjusted much of our coal adjustments either, our coal plant retirements.
Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you for that. And just one last quick one, if I could, as far as 25 funding needs are concerned for equity content. Just wondering, does it make sense for the ATM? Could we see a block? How much transferability, I guess, is in the mix here?
Sure, I'll let Xia take that one. Yeah, so we have, remember we still have the employee benefit plans on, so that will be part of the equity raise for next year, so the ATM should handle the remaining piece fairly easily, so we don't plan to have a block sale right now.
The tax credits are already included in the FFO, so on average we've been selling $100-$200 million so far, and as we continue to add renewable projects, that number could grow a little bit, but those are already assumed in the FFO.
Got it. Thank you. Very helpful. I'll leave it there.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Your next question comes from a line of Nicholas Campanella from Barclays. Your line is open.
Hey, good morning, or good afternoon, rather. Wow, long day.
Nicholas Campanella: So, just one for me, a lot of things have been answered. I guess just kind of decomposing that 8.8% asset-based growth figure, you know, it does seem like a lot of
the growth is kind of coming from Wisconsin. So just what's rate-based growth outlook in Wisconsin as you see it today versus kind of what you've been kind of trending at or executing at the past few years? And that's it for me. Thanks.
Speaker Change: So, when you look at the rate-based growth in Wisconsin, it's got to be, oh I don't know, I imagine between 14 and 15 percent. Pretty significant rate-based growth, but remember, that's where all the economic growth is.
you know, resiliency, and a lot of our growth, I would say, I don't know, eight to nine billion dollars of it is related to economic development and growth of the support of the economy. So it's really driven that sales are gonna help grow into that. So that's significant. And then,
ATC has good growth, so we're also growing a lot in the American Transmission Company, which is Wisconsin-based also, but FERC-regulated. So a lot of growth in Wisconsin, largely driven by economic development.
Speaker Change: Yeah, Nick, 40% of our...
and related costs. So we feel good about the growth in Wisconsin and also the driver for it.
Speaker Change: All right, thank you a lot. We'll see you soon. Thank you
Speaker Change: And your final question comes from a line of Paul Patterson from Glenrock Associates. Your line is open.
Nicholas Campanella: Hey!
Paul Patterson: Good afternoon.
given the new CAPEX
Paul Patterson: program if it's changed at all and just what it is again.
Go to Beadaholique.com for all of your beading supplies needs!
Sure, and we're right now going through the rake phase in Wisconsin, so if you go out and you're starting to look at...
You know, you got to kind of break it into this capital, as Xia said, a lot of it's
Paul Patterson: being supported by
Paul Patterson: economic development. So I think rate increases will be in line.
Nicholas Campanella: with inflation. We do have some...
Nicholas Campanella: Reliability projects that we're putting in place, that we're doing some overhead to underground.
Nicholas Campanella: It's not like it's all on the back of our retail customers at any means. And Microsoft has said, and they put in their testimony, they understand and they need to pay their fair share. They don't plan on subsidizing anyone else, but they also realize that they're not supposed to get subsidized either. So they have been.
perfect and as we look at potentially other data centers coming in that's kind of that's the playbook to make sure everyone pays their fair share appropriate amount.
Speaker Change: Okay and then on the, I apologize if I missed this, but it looked like there was a big increase in gas normalized sales in commercial or something for Q3.
Nicholas Campanella: When I looked at your...
Yeah, and we can, when you look at Q3, commercial investors, yeah it was up a little bit.
Q3 is such a small volume quarter that any little change can affect it, so I would not read much into it. I would look more at the year-to-date, where we are. Q3, that could have been just an anomaly with the meter issue or something. I mean, there's so small of volumes in that quarter. You've got to really look at the year-to-date.
Makes sense. Okay. Thanks so much. Have a great one.
Speaker Change: You too.
All right.
Speaker Change: Thanks everyone. That concludes our conference call for today. Thank you for participating. If you have any more questions, please feel free to contact Bestraka at 414-221-4639.
The call has now ended. You may now disconnect.
Please wait. The conference will begin shortly. The conference will begin shortly.