Q2 2025 Smith & Wesson Brands Inc Earnings Call
Speaker Change: Good day, everyone, and welcome to Smith & Wesson Brand's second quarter fiscal 2025 financial results conference call.
Speaker Change: This call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Maxwell, Smith & Wesson's General Counsel, who will give some information about today's call.
Speaker Change: Thank you and good afternoon. Our comments today may contain forward-looking statements. Our use of the words anticipate, project, estimate, expect, intend, believe, and other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements.
Speaker Change: Forward-looking statements may also include statements on topics such as our product development, objectives, strategies, market share, demand, consumer preferences, inventory conditions for our products, growth opportunities and trends, and industry conditions in general.
Speaker Change: Forward-looking statements represent our current judgment about the future and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by our statements today. These risks and uncertainties are described in our SEC filings, which are available on our website, along with a replay of today's call.
We have no obligation to update forward-looking statements.
Speaker Change: We reference certain non-GAAP financial results. Our non-GAAP financial results exclude relocation expense and other costs.
Speaker Change: Reconciliations of GAAP financial measures to non-GAAP financial measures can be found in our SEC filings and in today's earnings press release, each of which is available on our website.
Speaker Change: Also, when we reference EPS, we are always referencing fully diluted EPS, and any reference to EBITDAs is to adjusted EBITDAs.
Speaker Change: Before I hand the call over to our speakers, I would like to remind you that when we discuss NICS results, we are referring to Adjusted NICS, a metric published by the National Shooting Sports Foundation based on FBI NICS data. Adjusted NICS removes those background checks conducted for purposes other than firearms purchases.
Speaker Change: Adjusted mix is generally considered the best available proxy for consumer firearm demand at the retail counter.
Speaker Change: Because we transfer firearms only to law enforcement agencies and federally licensed distributors and retailers and not to end consumers, NICS generally does not directly correlate to our shipments or market share in any given time period. We believe mostly due to inventory levels in the channel.
Speaker Change: Joining us on today's call are Mark Smith, our President and CEO, and Deana McPherson, our CFO. With that, I will turn the call over to Mark.
Thank you, Kevin, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today.
Mark Smith: Second quarter results came in below our expectations as overall demand for firearms normalized late in the quarter.
Mark Smith: Despite these headwinds, we continue to outperform the market and believe we gain share, led by our best-in-class innovation with new products representing 44% of our sales in the period, which I'll cover in more detail in a few moments.
Mark Smith: From a profitability standpoint, as we've detailed many times before, our unique flexible manufacturing model is designed to quickly react to the volatility that is typical in the firearms industry. And as always, our team executed very well in response to the slowdown, enabling us to again deliver solid, adjusted EBITDA.
Mark Smith: Looking at the overall firearms market as measured by FBI background checks for firearms purchases, adjusted NICS was up 1.1% for our second quarter, but deteriorated significantly as the quarter progressed, including a 5% decline in October.
Mark Smith: Overall, for Smith & Wesson, our units shift into the channel, increased by 8.7%, while distributor and strategic retail account inventories largely held flat, with only a 2.7% increase, indicating strong share growth despite a challenging market.
Mark Smith: Breaking those numbers down by category, handgun nicks was flat in Q2, while long gun nicks was up 3.6%.
Mark Smith: For Smith & Wesson, our handgun shipments were up 19.2%, significantly outperforming the market due mostly to very strong demand for our new products, led by the entry-level price BodyGuard 2.0.
Mark Smith: On long guns, our shipments were down 26.4%, however, I will note that this is largely due to timing associated with channel fill shipments and outperformance of new products in the comparable quarter last year.
Mark Smith: Removing these outliers, shipments of our core long gun line were down only 4.8%, which is typical of this quarter, which is the strongest quarter for hunting products, and since we are just beginning to enter the hunting category with our lever-action rifles, the benefit was less impactful on our results.
Mark Smith: We believe that the primary driver of the demand pressure continues to be inflation. The consumer consciousness with discretionary spend that we observed in recent quarters was more pronounced during Q2 than we anticipated.
Mark Smith: I will also note that this continued into November, as evidenced by the recent mixed results.
Mark Smith: Lower or opening price point product is generally performing better, which is evidence of trade-down activity.
Mark Smith: We are well positioned to navigate this challenging demand environment as we have many times before.
Mark Smith: By remaining focused on executing against our flexible manufacturing model, we expect to preserve profitability and a strong balance sheet.
Additionally, we expect to maintain and gain share through innovation.
Mark Smith: Highlighting this point, our new Bodyguard 2.0, chambered in .388 CP, which we launched in July, has quickly become one of the most sought-after concealed carry pistols in the industry.
Mark Smith: And we are proud to have won Best New Handgun of 2024 from the National Association of Sporting Goods Wholesalers, which represents our largest channel customers, and also 2024 Handgun of the Year from Guns & Ammo Magazine, one of the most popular firearm consumer publications.
Mark Smith: Smith & Wesson has proven to be a leader in innovation. With a very strong pipeline of new products, an award-winning engineering and design team, and core value of operational excellence in quality and manufacturing efficiency, innovation will continue to be a strong driver of success.
Moving now to average selling prices.
Mark Smith: Overall, AFPs were down 8% versus a year ago, driven by mixed factors, as well as increased promotional activity.
Mark Smith: Handgun ASPs declined 11%, reflecting strong sales of the BodyGuard 2.0, which has a retail price of around $400, combined with lower sales in revolvers.
Mark Smith: In contrast, long gun ASPs increased 11% due to the increased sales of lever action rifles relative to the remainder of the long gun line.
Mark Smith: Additionally, and as expected, the market has become increasingly competitive, with substantial promotional activity across the board.
Mark Smith: With our strong balance sheet, we are able to carefully evaluate our participation in promotions.
Mark Smith: And we'll continue to do so thoughtfully, but we do anticipate sustained pressure on ASPs throughout the remainder of the fiscal year from promotional spending.
Mark Smith: In summary, our disciplined approach to managing the business continues to deliver solid profitability and a strong balance sheet, no matter the market conditions.
Mark Smith: We remain committed to our capital allocation strategy of returning value to stockholders as evidenced by our very healthy quarterly dividends and our repurchase of 1.6 million shares since the beginning of this fiscal year, with 754,000 of those shares purchased in Q2.
Mark Smith: Finally, and as always, I just want to thank our entire team of dedicated Smith & Wesson employees for tirelessly putting their skills to work every day to make us successful.
Mark Smith: With that, I'll turn the call over to Deana to cover the financials.
Thanks, Mark.
Deana McPherson: Net sales for our second quarter of $129.7 million, or $4.7 million, are 3.8% above the prior year comparable quarter on the strength of our new Bodyguard 380 pistol and lever action rifle.
Deana McPherson: During the quarter, inventory in the distribution channel grew slightly in terms of actual units, but declined significantly in terms of weeks outstanding, as expected due to increased volume.
Deana McPherson: Angan ASPs declined significantly from Q1 levels, reflecting volume growth in the bodyguard combined with additional promotion.
Deana McPherson: As expected, ASPs for long guns returned to Q4 levels. As a reminder, Q1 long gun ASPs were disproportionately high due to the mix of higher-priced products and lower overall volume.
Deana McPherson: Gross margin of 26.6% was 1.2% above the comparable quarter last year due to a one-time accrual in the prior year's quarter for a legal settlement.
Deana McPherson: Excluding this one-time accrual, the prior year margin would have been 28% or 1.3% higher than the current year. The current year margin was negatively impacted by the lower average income selling prices and higher labor and overhead costs.
Deana McPherson: Operating expenses of $27.6 million for our second quarter were $400,000 lower than the prior comparable quarter, with higher R&D costs and legal expenses being more than offset by the absence of costs associated with the Maribor Grand Opening event last year.
Deana McPherson: The increased sales volume and related margin resulted in the income of $4.1 million, or $0.09 per share. On a non-GAAP basis, income per share was $0.11.
Deana McPherson: Cash use and operations for the second quarter was $7.4 million compared with $2.9 million in the prior year comparable quarter due to a larger increase in net working capital in the current quarter, partially offset by increase in net income.
Deana McPherson: We spent $3.3 million on capital projects this quarter, compared with $34.9 million in the prior year comparable quarter, primarily due to lower investment in the current year related to the relocation. We expect our capital spending for the year to be between $25 and $30 million.
Deana McPherson: In September, our board approved a new $50 million dollar share of purchase authorization effective when the prior authorization expired.
Deana McPherson: Also, during the quarter, we signed a new, unsecured $175 million dollar line of credit. This new line increased our total available borrowing by $75 million and extended the maturity to October 2029.
Deana McPherson: This new unsecured line of credit has nearly identical terms as our prior line that was set to expire in August 2025 and shows the continued support that we have from our banking partners.
Deana McPherson: During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 754,000 shares at an average price of $12.94 for a total of $9.8 million. We paid $5.8 million in dividends and ended the quarter with $39.1 million in cash and $100 million in borrowings on our line of credit, which we expect to pay down in the second half.
Deana McPherson: Finally, our board has authorized our $0.13 quarterly dividend to be paid to stockholders of record on December 19th, with payment to be made on January 2nd.
Deana McPherson: Looking forward to our third quarter, based on the softer demand trends we've seen across the industry in recent months, we have reduced our expectations for the second half of fiscal 2025 and now expect full-year revenue to be 5 to 10 percent lower than fiscal 2024.
Deana McPherson: Although we are experiencing very strong support for our new product, we are also seeing a more visible impact from inflation on consumer behavior, including trading down to lower-priced products for many of our core products.
Deana McPherson: In addition, promotional activity has increased significantly due to market dynamics, creating incremental margin pressure that we expect to result in our full-year margins being in line or even slightly below fiscal 2024.
Deana McPherson: Channel inventory is expected to remain stable, and we believe that the distribution channel remains cautious and will continue to manage their inventory carefully.
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Deana McPherson: For our third quarter, we expect our top line to be approximately 10 to 15 percent lower than fiscal 2024, with margins a few points lower than the prior year quarter, due to increased promotions and lower ASPs.
Deana McPherson: We also expect to see operating expenses at 5-10% above the prior year comparable quarter due to investments in research and development, promotion, and marketing programs to drive volume-related market share.
Our effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 25%.
Deana McPherson: Due to the changes in the market and the share of purchases that we've already completed, we now expect to end the year with debt levels similar to or slightly above last year, with roughly an equivalent amount of cash on hand.
Deana McPherson: Although we expect that cash generation will be lower than our annual target of $75 million, our capital spending needs are also lower due to the completion of the relocation and our focus on internal projects.
Deana McPherson: This will allow us to repay a large portion of our outstanding revolver while still investing in our business.
Deana McPherson: As a reminder, our Capital Allocation Plan continues to be Invest in our Business, Remain Debt Free, and Return Cash to our Stockholders. With that, Operator, can we please open the call to questions from our analysts?
Speaker Change: Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. The confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue.
Speaker Change: You may press star 2 to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys.
One moment, please, while we poll for questions.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Our first question is from Steve Dyer with Craig Howard. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker Change: Hi guys, this is Matthew Robb on for Steve. Just one for me. Thanks for all the color on the puts and takes in the model. Just on ASPs, it sounds like there's a little bit more pressure in the second half. Do you think you can kind of hold the Q2 levels or do you think it's going to come down a little bit more than that across both handguns and long guns?
Mark Smith: Yeah, good question. As I, this is Mark, as I covered in the prepared remarks, you know, we're gonna, we will be seeing some pressure from probably some little bit increased promotional activity just due to the competitive market. But, you know, we do believe that that's gonna be more than offset by mix associated with some new products that we'll be launching here in the beginning of our third quarter. So overall for the second half, you know, I think you can kind of anticipate that Q3 will be largely flat on handguns, up a little bit on long guns. And then overall for the second half, we'll be actually be up slightly on ASPs for both.
Thank you very much. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Okay, got that. And then just on the channel, you covered it in the comments, but it seems to be mostly the finished goods. What's the confidence level of bringing down inventory in the second half in the backdrop of a probably cooling-off gun market?
Speaker Change: Yeah, I mean obviously the inventory rose a little bit more than anticipated just simply related to the fact that you know the market
Speaker Change: Was a little bit softer than we anticipated specifically in the back half of September and into October
Speaker Change: But, you know, we have a pretty robust sales and operations planning process that we go through on a monthly basis to make sure that our production is aligned with the sales volume. So, you know, feel pretty comfortable with being able to bring that inventory, you know, back down. And again, I mean, strong balance sheet for the company is, you know, the core focus of ours and, you know, so, you know, no rush there.
Speaker Change: you know, there's no need to kind of jerk the manufacturing plant around. We'll kind of ramp that down and feel very comfortable with the inventory reduction by the end of the year.
Speaker Change: Okay, got it. That's great. That's it for me. Thanks. All right, thank you.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Our next question is from Rommel Dionisio with Aegis Capital. Please proceed with your question.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. You know, with regards to new product launches, obviously this is the time of year where the industry is going to aggressively launch, as will you guys. I wonder, Mark, if you could just give us an initial feel for – I realize it's early, it's still early December, but just maybe give us an initial feel for the proclivity of retailers and distributors to take on inventory, you know, given the backdrop of a somewhat challenging inflationary environment. Thanks.
Speaker Change: Sure. Yeah, good question, Rommel. I think in this environment, you know, I don't think the firearms market is unique in this for consumer goods, but, you know, it's all going to be about innovation. And Smith & Wesson, you know, I think we've proven over the last couple of years, we
Speaker Change: definitely are the leader in the marketplace on innovation and that's going to continue to be a focus area of ours so you know that the proclivity of the retailers and the channel partners to bring on inventory there that's what they're looking for they're looking for new product you know it's
That's where the volume is right now.
Speaker Change: kind of, you know, real, real nice bright spots for us in the second quarter where that bodyguard 380 that we launched in July, you know, that's quickly become
Speaker Change: The number one concealed carry pistol in the marketplace and you know the lever action continues to perform Well, so as we continue to you know, keep up that cadence of new product introduction in the back half You know, we're pretty optimistic that you know, those are going to be a nice bright spot for a second hand
Okay, maybe just a quick follow-up if I could.
Speaker Change: I noticed, obviously, the softening in consumer demand, you primarily cite inflation there. Was weather a factor? It seemed like it was a really warm fall, early start to this hunting season in a lot of key markets in the country. So was there any impact from that, would you say?
Speaker Change: No, I wouldn't say so. Actually, our August was very strong. August was strong, beginning of September was strong, and it kind of started to slow down there the second half of August.
Speaker Change: September into October. So, you know, I really do think it's, you know, you know, as we covered in the prepared remarks and we believe it's it's really just related to to inflation and you know that just the pressure on discretionary spend with consumer wallets and and you know, so You know that that really is the primary driver there
Okay, fair enough. Thanks so much. Yep, thanks Rama.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Our next question is from Mark Smith with Lake Street Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Mark Smith: Hi guys, a handful of questions for me today. First, Deana, I just wanted to walk through the guidance to make sure that I kind of caught everything right here. Just for the year on revenue, you said down 5 to 10 percent, I believe, in margins.
Mark Smith: similar to last year. Just correct me if I'm wrong on either of those, but then I missed kind of your operating expense guidance for the year.
Speaker Change: We didn't give operating expense guidance for the year. We only gave for the quarter. Quarter will be up five to ten percent.
Okay, perfect. That's what I missed. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Mark, just wanted to jump back in on ASP, primarily looking at handgun, but maybe kind of across the board in products.
Speaker Change: Can you talk about, you know, how much ASP maybe was under pressure due to just success of Bodyguard and maybe the mix of a lower-priced item?
Speaker Change: versus, you know, maybe just general consumer pullback and them gravitating towards lower-priced items, maybe trading out into, you know, other brands that aren't, that maybe cater to a budget price tank.
Speaker Change: as well as kind of any thoughts that you have around, you know, used firearm market and how that's maybe showing NICs a little bit higher, but maybe not as relevant to, makes NICs maybe less relevant to what your business is seeing.
Mark Smith: Sure, I think it's probably a little bit of a combination of both, Mark.
Mark Smith: on the ASPs in terms of trading down to lower-priced products and the success of the Bodyguard 380. For us, I think, as I covered in the marks, we took share, specifically in handguns.
Mark Smith: And so, you know, I think in terms of the trade down, or I mean, sorry, the trading out for other brands, I don't think that...
Mark Smith: you know frankly for us it was a factor. I think you know the biggest the bigger factor was you know just the success of that of that bodyguard which is great you know which is.
Mark Smith: that, you know, that's what we want. We want innovation to be driving that.
Mark Smith: driving the bus right now, you know, when it's a challenging environment, you know, whoever's got the, you know, the best new products is going to win and, you know,
right now.
Mark Smith: So we're winning, so that's good. On the used gun market, anytime the firearms market kind of starts to soften like this, yeah, that used gun market does tend to tick up a little bit. And so just like it always has, it is taking up a little bit right now.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Okay, and then you know you talked about promotional environment a little bit Maybe give us you know any indication of how you feel about the rebate programs that you guys can ran You know it seems like later in the quarter, but but still some current ones out there You know if you feel like you're getting kind of a bang for your buck on those How successful that's been kind of response from from consumers
Speaker Change: Yeah As I said in the remarks, I mean, we're pretty thoughtful about it. You know, we're we're not you know With the balance sheet strength that we have we don't have to be reactionary. And so we really
Speaker Change: make sure we take our time and evaluate it, make sure we're getting, we're going to get a return for that dollar spent on rebates and on promotions, whether it be within the channel or we're targeted towards the consumer. And as far as the two that are active right now, you know, they're doing really well for us. They're, you know, they're
Speaker Change: you know, exceeding or meeting expectations. So, you know, that's, it's working for us to sit back and, you know, kind of make sure we take a pretty measured approach to that. You know, that said, as we go forward, we're going to need to continue, you know, we're likely going to need to continue to participate there just because, you know, it's a more competitive environment.
Okay.
Speaker Change: Looking broadly at the industry, you know, we've talked a bit about your kind of inventory levels
Speaker Change: You know, is there any fear or how do you feel about kind of industry inventory levels? Are you seeing, you know, kind of stockpiling by retailer, distributors, things kind of backing up and inventory getting jammed higher than it should be within the industry or is the industry being thoughtful, I guess, around inventory?
Speaker Change: Yeah, actually it's the opposite. They're being very thoughtful. They're not stockpiling at all. We're very comfortable with the inventory levels we see in the channel. I think as you know we measured
Speaker Change: on a very frequent basis. We're looking at distributor inventory levels and measuring where they're at and making sure they're not getting out ahead of their skis. And so, and they're not, the inventory levels out there are very healthy. We're very comfortable with where they're standing.
Excellent and I think the last one for me
Speaker Change: may be a tough one to answer because you can't really...
Speaker Change: quantify it but as we think about just big picture here and kind of outlook for you know shooting sports or firearm industry here over the next year or two
or is there a reason to think that we're maybe?
past or beyond.
Speaker Change: you know, fear-based buying that we saw kind of in the past, you know, we saw kind of a weaker demand into the election than we've seen in the past. Obviously, a lot of firearms purchased over the last four or five years here, you know, but just given the mix of kind of government and courts, do you feel like maybe we're past that, you know, big spikes in demand just as people fear any increased regulations?
Speaker Change: Yeah, I think, look, I think the primary driver, obviously, right now, is just the fact that, you know, the
Speaker Change: The Consumers Wallets and discretionary spend is being pinched by just the state of the economy and inflation, etc., and the price of groceries and all the other, you know.
Speaker Change: that the consumers are having to buy and our customers are having to buy it. So, you know, obviously that outweighed any, you know, any fear-based buying around regulation in this election cycle, however, you know, the, you know, I think there is, there is still that.
Speaker Change: That driver out there of you know, but the primary driver is moved to personal protection you know, and so that definitely
Speaker Change: is a factor we continue to look at. But, you know, I think you're accurate in saying, you know, that the fear-based buying around gun control regulation has abated.
Okay. Great. Very helpful. Thank you, guys.
Thank you, Mark.
Speaker Change: Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand the floor back over to Mark Smith for any closing comments.
Mark Smith: Thank you, Operator. And thanks, everyone, for joining us today and your interest in Smith & Wesson. We look forward to speaking with you all again next quarter.