Q4 2024 GSK PLC Earnings Call
Creation of GSK as a new dedicated biopharma company for patients and for shareholders. The de-merger enabled a fundamental restructure of GSK and its balance sheet, bringing new capacity to invest in growth and to deliver returns to shareholders.
Three years on, I'm pleased to say that we've seized this opportunity and made significant progress building a strong track record of performance delivery.
Specialty medicines and vaccines now dominate our reshaped portfolio and pipeline. Our long-term outlooks have consistently improved alongside the quality of our innovation.
Operational delivery in 2024, reflecting strong growth and accelerating momentum of specialty medicines with double digit growth in all therapy areas and sales of oncology nearly doubling to more than $1 4 billion pounds for the year.
Vaccine sales reflects the challenges we've seen from external pressures in the U S and China for Iraq span Shang Rick's going forward. We expect these to continue in 2025, but equally remain confident the direct station Rick's Endo vaccines pipeline will contribute meaningfully in the medium and long term.
Importantly, 2025, we will see further additions to gsk's portfolio with five new product approvals expected this year.
For front, a potential step changes in treatment with blend wrap our novel ADC treatment vault for myeloma and <unk>, our new long acting IL five medicine for the treatment of severe asthma.
Of these two blend rep will be the first to launch with an expected FDA producer in July next.
Slide please.
Last year GSK had 13 positive phase III Readouts, a record achievement for our R&D organization.
I'm also pleased with the confirmed development and strengthening of our mid and early stage pipeline with positive clinical progress and the addition of several promising new assets in the areas of oncology and respiratory immunology and inflammation are ini.
Next slide please.
So with all this progress to date R&D is now heavily focused on the clinical development of 14 at scale opportunities.
With peak year sales potential above 2 billion pounds and expected launches before 2031 and the majority in specialty medicines.
And our eye and I were prioritizing deca woke him up new call of C. O P. D camera pixel and long acting aisle thirty-three IL five and T slipped medicines.
The aim here.
To leverage Gsk's deep expertise in inflammatory mechanisms to lead in COPD and to target new options to treat fibrotic lung liver and kidney diseases.
In oncology, we are prioritizing resources to blend rate and to the acceleration of all very promising adcs targeting b seven H three N b seven H for antigens as well as continuing lifecycle innovation for Jim poorly.
In HIV, our plans for long acting and ultra long acting treatment frac options for four and six months are all progressing very well.
And infectious disease, we're prioritizing development of battery reversing all potential functional cure for happy and of course, our high potential new mrna and maps vaccines.
Alongside these and as Tony Stoss store outlined in December. We're also prosecuting the early stage pipeline with a further 40 assets or so in phase one and two.
Lastly, we continue to add new opportunities through targeted business development. The recent agreement to acquire idea Rx being a great example of what we want to do here.
Next slide please.
Looking at Gsk's launched portfolio over the next five years, we expect it to offer scale opportunity for growth together with an attractive risk profile.
By 2031, we're increasing our outlook again, and now expect risk adjusted sales to be more than 40 billion pounds.
This increase reflects the inclusion of planned rent a significant phase III progress since last year and multiple launch opportunities in the 26 to 31 period.
With almost 90% of our 2031 sales ambition coming from products already approved or planned for launch in the next three years.
Our covenant double failure will deliver against this guidance.
In terms of contribution we now expect specialty medicines to be more than 50% of sales by 2031 with this area being the key growth driver for GSK over the next few years to reflecting the high number of opportunities we have in the maturing late stage pipeline for specialty products, particularly in our ini and.
Collagen.
For vaccines, while we've adjusted expectations to accommodate for new sales growth trajectories of Orexin Xing Rick's over this period as you can see here. We continue to expect this path of Gsk's business to remain a key source of future growth.
General medicines will also remain an important and relatively stable contributor to sales over the period.
As before we have further upside from our early stage pipeline, including notably Q six month, HIV and prospective BD, while we will continue to pursue smart opportunities at the same kind of scale and pace seen in recent years.
And as you can see from the two balls here there is significant potential for upside with successful clinical outcomes.
Next slide please.
Overall, then we continue to set out positive outlooks for growth in the short medium and long term and we are all strongly committed to maintaining our track record of delivering this together we.
Expect went to 25 will be another year of profitable growth led by specialty medicines and without recent progress. We're now even more confident in our ability to deliver not only at 26, but also a new 2031 outlooks.
All of this while retaining the flexibility we need to invest competitively in growth and to deliver improving returns to shareholders next slide please.
We remain extremely focused on disciplined allocation of capital.
Our first priority for capital remains to invest in growth and in R&D.
With a pipeline that is we now have we are deliberately prioritizing investment to accelerate development of key assets in our own iron oncology alongside long acting HIV medicines and existing core vaccines opportunities.
In addition to growth we also remain focused on delivering improving returns for shareholders.
Our primary mechanism for this remains by delivery of a progressive dividend for 2020 full we've declared 61 pence and we expect to pay 64 pence in 2025.
And as we've previously said, we also look to deliver returns using other mechanisms when circumstances and opportunities allow.
Today, we are announcing our intention to buy back up to 2 billion pounds of shares over the next 18 months. We believe this offers a very attractive return for shareholders, our current share price levels.
Importantly, and to reconfirm, we will maintain planned increased levels of investment in R&D, you launches and targeted business development alongside these share buybacks. So let me now hand over to Luke to start to take you through more detail on our 2020 for performance and the.
Luke: Prospects, we see for some of our near term growth drivers.
Luke: Thanks, Emma please turn to the next slide.
Luke: As Emily highlighted our rural South for the year up 8% with strong growth from specialty and general medicines more than offsetting short term headwinds primarily in the U S to our vaccines business.
Luke: Slide please.
Luke: Specialty medicines continues to show excellent momentum and pipeline progress and as Emma said, it's now expect it to be over half our business by 2031.
Luke: In 2020 full specialty grew 19% with strong performances across all therapy areas.
Luke: Respiratory immunology products were up 13% in the year you Carla anti IL five biologic treatment grew 12% driven by strong performances in Europe and international.
Luke: And Mr. Our treatment for lupus was up 14% in the year with strong demand across all regions.
Luke: In oncology sales almost doubled in the year.
Luke: So Julien grew 17% with strong growth across all regions.
Luke: Driven by sustained increases in patient demand.
Luke: <unk> sells more than triple in 2020 for benefiting from increased patient uptake in the U S. Following FTIR comas approval for primary advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer.
Luke: And we received.
Luke: All comers approval in January of this year.
Luke: [laughter] are John ourselves increased more than 10 times in the year largely driven by continued strong uptake in the U S.
Luke: Contributions from Europe, and international while also increasing following launches in the U K, Germany, and Japan, and we expect for the launches in 2020 for Dave.
Speaker Change: David will cover HIV shortly.
Speaker Change: We expect the excellent momentum in our specialty medicines portfolio to continue in 2025 with sales growth of low double digit percent, while absorbing the IRI impact next slide please.
Speaker Change: Looking at what's next and specialty.
Speaker Change: In iron ore, we are targeting a major new indication for <unk>.
Speaker Change: Tricia IPD.
Speaker Change: Following positive headline results from a phase III trial.
Speaker Change: COPD fixed more than 300 million people globally.
Speaker Change: It's the third leading cause of death worldwide, excluding Covid and FDA decision is expected ahead of the <unk> of May the <unk> date.
Speaker Change: And launch preparations are fully underway.
Speaker Change: We plan to publish the format and a result of dishes Ats meeting.
Speaker Change: Deborah Mark and Matt are new long acting anti IL five medicine has now been filed in all major markets. The dual approval in severe asthma and chronic Ryan is sought us with nasal polyps dip American map has the potential to be the first approved ultra long acting biologic with six month dosing offering physicians.
Speaker Change: And patients the reassurance of prolonged efficacy through sustained suppression of inflammation and could improve compliance and adherence of patients with severe asthma, we expect more phase III readouts over the next 18 months for other indications.
Speaker Change: Indications.
Speaker Change: We also plan to start a phase III trial in COPD. This year, and we have kind of a picture.
Speaker Change: Hi, selective <unk> antagonist with the potential to be a best in class medicine for treatment of refractory chronic cough, a disease with significant unmet need.
Speaker Change: Data from the Phase III calm development program are expected this year with more early next year.
Speaker Change: In oncology, we are working to realize the full potential of our existing medicines as well as to expand our portfolio in areas of high unmet need.
Speaker Change: We have significant potential assets to drive growth for GSK.
Speaker Change: I'm very optimistic about what we as GSK can deliver here, we're building a portfolio of novel pipeline agencies with the ability to target tumor cells, while sparing healthy ones GSE.
Speaker Change: GSK to two seven targets B seven ish range and antigen, which is over expressed in a wide range of solid tumors.
Speaker Change: Early data showed promising clinical activity and we expect to share updated small cell lung osteosarcoma and additional data from our clinical development programs at the <unk> in asthma conferences this year.
Speaker Change: Studies to two seven are expected to stop for the end of the year.
Speaker Change: GSK 584 targets <unk>, four which is.
Speaker Change: Over expressed across a number of solid tumors and our initial focus here is for the treatment of ovarian and endometrial cancers again, we expect to share more data on $5 four at the conferences this year.
Speaker Change: As you might have saying, we started 2025 and the announcement to acquire <unk>.
Speaker Change: Access to <unk> four to a very promising and highly selective kit tyrosine kinase inhibitor designed to treat gastrointestinal stromal tumors.
Speaker Change: This adds to our Gi cancer portfolio, and we plan to accelerate development of this exciting asset.
Speaker Change: Lastly, as a reminder, we also expect initial results from Azure.
Speaker Change: And <unk> two trials exploring Jim purely in rectal and colon cancer in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Speaker Change: And the phase III <unk> study to read out in 2020.
Speaker Change: All of this highlights the very strong progress gsk's marquee in oncology.
Speaker Change: 125 will be another key year with the launch of blend Rick Thanks, a lot place.
Speaker Change: <unk> is at the forefront of IEC portfolio.
Speaker Change: In December we presented overall survival data from the Dream seven second line multiple myeloma study at Ash.
Speaker Change: The data demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful 42% reduction in the risk of death.
Speaker Change: Pairing blend rep to Derek Mab based standard of care.
Speaker Change: Median overall survival has not yet been reached <unk> seven but the projected difference is 33 months. The context, that's almost an additional three years of survival versus the current standard of care if approved.
Speaker Change: <unk> a number of alternatives second line treatments blend rate would be an off the shelf treatment option delivered by a 30 minute infusion in a community setting with no requirements for pre infusion protocols hospital admission or post infusion monitoring.
Speaker Change: This could be important for the 70% of patients treated in the community in the newly diagnosed first line setting. We're encouraged by the second line trial Readouts, but also by the pillar trial, which demonstrated 100% response rates.
Speaker Change: Our pivotal trial for <unk> in the first line Dream 10 started recruitment at the end of 2024, and we anticipate headline results towards the end of 2027 next slide please.
Speaker Change: I remain very ambitious the blend rate.
Speaker Change: I believe will become an important new growth driver for GSK. We have gained extensive experience of treating patients with <unk> and <unk>.
Speaker Change: Have a better understanding of how to mitigate all related side effects.
Speaker Change: About third of patients in <unk> studies have reported blurred vision.
Speaker Change: This event, but for the vast majority of these patients. This was manageable transient and reversible and data suggest did not impact patients quality of life.
Speaker Change: Our related side effects and drained seven with generally managed by dose modification for example by extending the interval between doses.
Speaker Change: <unk> recently presented at Ash showed that when dosing intervals were extended from eight to 12 weeks the incidence of ocular events declined and critically the efficacy was maintained we've completed a number of regulatory filings and have an FDA <unk> date of July 23.
Speaker Change: As we prepare for <unk> launch market research tells us intent to prescribe a significantly improved with the overall survival data a strong motivator.
Speaker Change: However, as he pays a mindful of our related side effects and therefore educating them in the appropriate dosing will be key.
Speaker Change: As a result in the initial phase, we expect a staged ramp up.
Speaker Change: As we build positioning experience the medium to longer term.
David: I'll now hand over to David to talk for HIV before I cover vaccines in general medicines.
David: Thank you Luke.
David: HIV sales continued to deliver strong growth up 13% for the full year with Q4, delivering a ninth consecutive quarter of double digit growth.
David: Growth in 2024 was driven by strong patient demand for oral two drug regimen the author.
David: Up 27%.
David: And long acting Injectables cabin fever opportunities, which reached one 3 billion pounds of sales and contributed more than 50% of total growth.
This resulted in a two percentage point increase in global markets.
Speaker Change: <unk> to the prior parent Kevin Hoover, the first and only approved complete long acting injectable regimen for the treatment of HIV grew 47% to over 1 billion pounds of sales in 2024.
Speaker Change: Growth was driven by strong patient demand across the U S on Europe.
Speaker Change: 70000 people living with HIV now benefiting from this transformative medicines globally.
Speaker Change: In January we announced a European Commission approval for use in adolescents. This marks an important step in bringing this medicine to younger people in line with our commitment to leave no person living with HIV behind.
Speaker Change: <unk>.
Speaker Change: First and only approved long acting options for HIV prevention delivered sales of nearly 300 million pounds in 2024.
Speaker Change: <unk> strong growth trajectory at 93%.
Speaker Change: With 99% effectiveness, we are confident in its strong efficacy safety and overall tolerability.
Speaker Change: In 2024 of the 13% growth, 10% with volume.
Speaker Change: The remainder are favorable in your pricing dynamic.
Speaker Change: In 2025, we anticipate sales growing by mid single digit percentage supported by ongoing growth in volume.
Speaker Change: Partly offset by pricing headwinds with the introduction of inflation reduction.
Speaker Change: Which we expect to be a 150 to 200 million pound impact.
Speaker Change: The potential for the long acting market remains significant with the market today for treatments and prep gather worth more than 22 billion pounds.
Speaker Change: With treatment accounting for around 90% of this <unk>.
Speaker Change: And we believe treatment will continue to be the much larger market going forward next slide please.
Speaker Change: Yeah.
Speaker Change: Our pipeline is founded on integration inhibitors or Steve the gold standard of HIV treatment and prevention due to that potency long term tolerability and high barrier to resistance.
Speaker Change: We have a clear roadmap to deliver more long acting innovation with three new season development and five planned launches by the end of the decade.
Speaker Change: In December a registrational study for <unk> four monthly long acting injectable prep began and we are on track to start a registrational study of every four months long acting injectable treatment this year.
Speaker Change: Early days for on assets with the potential for fixed monthly dosing will be available in 2025.
Speaker Change: Including selective presentations at the <unk> Congress in San Francisco in March.
Speaker Change: We are on track to confirm and trying to trying to save the assets that will deliver six monthly dosing.
Speaker Change: For this will be one of three long acting and Steve Im for treatment one of those in Steve in combination with being up and fixed all our capsid inhibitor.
Speaker Change: Pioneers in long acting Injectables, we are confident we have a strong and innovative pipeline to secure and deliver future competitive performance.
Speaker Change: With that I will hand back to Luke.
Luke: Thanks, David.
Speaker Change: Divesting <unk>.
Speaker Change: Total sales were 9 billion pounds down 3% in the year largely due to lower sales of our whiskey in the U S.
Overall orexigen.
Speaker Change: The market leader in the U S with around 10 million adults now protected.
Speaker Change: However demand for the vaccine was lower in 2024, following new Sip recommendations a light RSP season.
Speaker Change: And an unfavorable comparison to launch starting in 2023.
Speaker Change: Going forward, we continue to assume no re vaccination or expansion of age cohorts in 2025, but we do expect both in time.
Speaker Change: Given the protection RSV can offer against RSV.
Speaker Change: Outside of the U S. RSV is now launched in 36 markets and we.
Speaker Change: We're seeing good momentum in uptake with national recommendations in 17 markets and national reimbursement programs six and we expect more this year.
Speaker Change: Moving to <unk>.
Speaker Change: Sales grew 1% a year with.
Speaker Change: With growth in Europe, and international offsetting lower sales in the U S, whereas anticipated the pace of penetration is slowing.
Speaker Change: The U S immunization right at the end of the third quarter was 40% up five percentage points in line with our expectations per round three to five percentage points per year.
Speaker Change: Ex U S growth was driven by higher uptake across European countries, and a national immunization program in Australia.
Speaker Change: <unk> is now launched in 52 countries and the average immunization right across the top 10 markets outside the U S is now around 7%.
Speaker Change: The meningitis portfolio achieved another year of double digit growth with sales up 18%.
Speaker Change: Thanks, Sarah reached blockbuster status with sales up 23% aided by CDC purchasing and positive recommendation in Germany.
Speaker Change: <unk> grew 5% impacted by capacity to stockpile replenishment for 2023.
Speaker Change: In February we anticipate U S. FDA approval of our new Pentagon Min ABC Wi vaccine, combining the anti-aging components of <unk> and then <unk>.
Speaker Change: In time, we expect this to simplify immunization schedules, increasing coverage and protection I guess, the serious life threatening illness.
Speaker Change: Medium and long term, we expect vaccines to remain a key source of future growth.
Speaker Change: In the short term given the challenging macro environment and the potential for changes to U S taxation policies and uptake in the next 12 to 18 months, we're expecting vaccine trial to decrease low single digit percent in 2025, thanks lot place.
Speaker Change: General Medicine sales grew 6% in the year and this was largely driven by trilogy up 27%.
Speaker Change: Drawing demand across all regions strengthening its position as the top selling brand in asthma and COPD.
Speaker Change: In 2020 for increased use of authorized generic versions of Advair and Flovent fully offset the headwind from the removal of the cap on Medicaid drug prices. This year. We are excited to launch <unk>. The first completely new antibiotic to treat uncomplicated urinary tract infections and more.
Speaker Change: And 20 years, and we expect to see demand increase from 2026 once payers have completed their review process and put <unk> on formulary.
Speaker Change: Overall looking across the general medicine portfolio.
Speaker Change: While we expect volume growth across key brands to continue we expect that to be broadly offset by pricing Engineers foundation impressions and so I anticipate shelves broadly flat in 2025.
Julie: Now I'll hand over to Julie.
Julie: Thank you Lee and good morning, everyone next slide please.
Speaker Change: Building on the comments made by Lincoln David This slide shows the significant growth contribution from specialty medicines, having delivered more than 80% of the growth. This year by building scale and momentum in our respiratory immunology and oncology business as well as ongoing growth in our HIV pool.
Julie: Next slide please.
Julie: Moving to the income statement for the full year with growth rates you can see our next crusade.
Sales increased 8% and core operating profit, 13%, despite a 6% headwind from the loss of Gardasil royalties.
Julie: Within this.
Julie: This margin grew 80 basis points benefiting from the positive mix in specialty medicines and the supply chain efficiencies. Despite incorporating 150 million pounds charge Tonight features supply chain productivity.
Julie: SG&A increased 2% year on year benefiting from a returns focused disciplined approach to investment.
Julie: Supporting global market expansion, the key assets, including compelling new Carla long acting HIV and let's see in Shanghai as well as the one off credit it's conceivable if you're displacing close one.
Julie: R&D grew 7% in line with sales as we invested in phase III trials, particularly in ini unknown courage.
Julie: Core EPS grew 12% slightly below operating profit as anticipated.
Julie: The expected increase in the core tax rate.
Julie: And turning to the total results.
Julie: <unk> profit decreased materially year on year to 4 billion pounds. The reduction reflected a $1 8 billion charge relating to the resolution of patent litigation and the highest ECL charge.
Julie: And by the improved long term outlook for our HIV business next slide please.
Julie: Core operating margin improved to 29, 2% up 130 basis points year on year at CER.
Julie: That kind of is notwithstanding the absorption of 140 basis points due to the loss of gone to silver.
Julie: This marks improvement demonstrates productivity efficiency and optimize resource allocation to the key commercial and R&D assets in the business. The gross margin benefited from the outperformance of specialty medicines positive channel mix.
Julie: Fly chain productivity next slide please.
Julie: Turning to cash cash generated from operations was $7 9 billion pounds impacted by settlement payments relating to the resolution of zantac.
Julie: Excluding this impact we continued our track record of improving cash every year with CFO of clean fluid 1 billion totaling $8 5 billion.
Julie: This improvement primarily reflects the increase in core operating profit together with favorable working capital largely due to lower receivables.
Julie: Lower pension contribution.
Julie: These benefits were partly offset by lower other payables due to the reduced rebates and returns.
Julie: Yeah.
Julie: Free cash flow increased to $3 5 billion, excluding the zantac payments notwithstanding increased investment that's clean fluid the billion in BD intangibles next slide please.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: This slide demonstrates how we have deployed our cash in line with the capital allocation framework.
Julie: Free cash generation pre capital expenditure and excluding zantac was strong at over $6 billion.
Julie: Our first priority is to invest for growth.
Julie: In 2024, we deployed $3 6 billion on Capex.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: Our second priority is returns to shareholders and today, we have declared a dividend of <unk> 61 Penn.
Julie: An increase of 5% year on year and ahead of guidance, reflecting the strong outperformance of our 2024 results compared with our original position.
Julie: And page 25, we anticipate paying a dividend of <unk> 60, <unk> I'll.
Julie: So the 5% increase year on year.
Julie: And finally, we had two one off axis, the monetization of helium, which generated $2 3 billion.
Julie: The resolution of some type of litigation.
Julie: At December 2024, net debt reduced to $13 billion.
Julie: Driven by strong free cash generation on the helium proceeds.
Julie: As we've previously said, we will look to deliver incremental returns when does this needs to be fulfilled and the balance sheets of lives.
Julie: And given the significant transformation Thinset imagine, we now have strong balance sheet, which gives us high level of flexibility and acceleration of Wilmington Trust.
Julie: The business development.
Julie: It's also enabling.
Julie: And shareholder return.
Julie: As Emma said, we will have interim dividend with the $2 billion share buyback program to be completed over the next 18 months.
Julie: So to summarize.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: Okay great.
Julie: And there is no change to our capital allocation priorities and we remain fully committed to maintaining our balance sheet with a strong investment grade credit rating next slide please.
Julie: Maintaining.
Julie: Right.
Julie: The 2025 and phasing and then move to the outlook for 'twenty, one 'twenty six.
Julie: The first of 2025, we expect another year of good profitable growth for GSK.
Julie: Sales and expects to increase between three and 5% core operating profit and EPS to increase between six and 8% with EPS impacted by higher interest charges and the tax rate rising to around 17 and a half.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: Benefits from the share buyback.
Julie: Some points to note for modeling purposes, Firstly, we expect our sales growth to be driven by specialty medicines in 2025, which also benefits gross margin.
Julie: Secondly in terms of Opex.
Julie: SG&A to grow at a low single digit percentage with stronger investments behind perfect launches, while focusing on capacity with precision.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: All right.
Julie: R&D is expected to be quite broadly in line with sales as we prioritize investments in key pipeline assets.
Julie: <unk> oncology, a next generation vaccines and finally, we expect royalty income to be in the range of 650 to 700 million pounds.
Julie: Previously stated at Q3.
Julie: Guidance incorporates a fortune 500 revenue headwind from the introduction of the IRI Metlife. Please.
Julie: We anticipate growth in 2025 to the second half weighted.
Julie: Largely due to significant sales comp base effect, particularly in vaccines.
Julie: As well as benefits last year that will not repeat namely the Humana Inc.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: Next slide please.
Julie: And the husker that the overall outlooks and then finally I would just like to give more color on the change in the product mix outlook from 'twenty, one 'twenty six.
Julie: The contribution from specialty.
Julie: Significantly we have.
Julie: Gross accelerating due to strong alright.
Julie: On currency and HIV provinces.
Julie: This performance momentum means we now expect a low to mid teens 2020 states kind of ahead of the previous guidance.
Julie: And for HIV specifically.
Julie: High single digits across this period.
Julie: So vaccines there recently.
Julie: Alright.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: Decent expectations for the 2026, okay to engage to high single digits.
Julie: Where we ultimately landed the range will depend on a number of success, most notably the overall U S environment.
Julie: Okay great.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: Presentation session great uptake.
Julie: General Medicines has also outperformed which means we expect a low single digit contribution to our 2006 cargo.
Julie: Alongside sales we continue to see.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: Guidance of more than 31% margin by 2026 I'm on.
Julie: 500 basis going to treatment over the five years.
Julie: And we continue to expect a broadly stable operating margin through.
Julie: The only thing or a bad patent expiry.
Julie: Next slide please.
Julie: Turning to our IR ranked map, we have made significant progress this year in our pipeline and execution and the deployment of capital for school growth.
Julie: Next slide please.
Julie: And turning to 'twenty five 'twenty six as mentioned, we expect five major approval this year, including <unk> and Depomed come out.
Julie: And as it becomes.
Julie: We also anticipate phase III readout, the camera pixel for refractory chronic cough.
Julie: Beckwith isn't to hepatitis b as well as pivotal phase III for a full monthly HIV prep.
Julie: And Jim poorly rectal cancer.
Julie: Next slide please.
Julie: Before I finish I just wanted to take a minute to reflect on the progress we've delivered over the last few years, which demonstrates a marked improvement in zinc capital management operational efficiency and our commitment to improving outlooks.
Julie: Firstly operating margin improved 360 basis points and we are moderating.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: And take a disciplined returns based approach together supply chain efficiencies and benefits.
Julie: I am personally over the period, our investments into R&D has increased at a 10% Tiger and going forward R&D growth is expensed stripping crudely in line or ahead of sales.
Julie: Secondly, cash generated from operations and have been growing to about 8 billion per year since 2021.
Julie: With 2024 will be a record year adjusting for the one off impact from tax.
Julie: We anticipate this rising further to move in 10 billion by 2026.
Julie: The strong cash generation has allowed us to commit to a progressive dividend policy with more than 5% growth over the last three years alone.
Julie: And this has allowed us to announce the $2 billion share buyback program today.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: Okay.
Julie: Let it be enough cash to shareholders over the three year period to 2025.
Julie: Our balance sheet is now very strong with net debt to EBIDTA, and just 1.2 times, allowing us significant firepower for future BD uncharitable to return.
Julie: We will continue.
Julie: Future deals against stringent criteria to ensure capital is deployed optimally and ultimately you will only see us investing in opportunities that are strategically aligned to our main therapeutic areas.
Julie: And with that I'd now like to hand back Joanna for her closing remarks.
Joanna: Thanks, Jamie.
So in summary, GSK is powering forward.
Joanna: This comes on the back of a strong track record of operational delivery and accelerating progress in innovation and pipeline development, but of course, there is always more today.
Joanna: Our portfolio is demonstrating both growth and resilience built around high quality specialty medicines and vaccines with more to come in key areas of strategic <unk>.
Joanna: S K.
Joanna: As we head into 2025, we expect another year of profitable.
Joanna: And we have.
Joanna: Tom.
Joanna: So sales have now more than 40 billion pounds by 2031.
Joanna: Our outperformance was stronger balance sheets support of huge investment plans, including <unk>.
Joanna: Okay.
Joanna: Got you.
Joanna: Okay.
Joanna: Celebrate.
Joanna: All of this underscores gsk's opportunity to deliver scale health impact for patients.
Joanna: Okay and beyond <unk>.
Joanna: Combining science technology and the talent of our people to get ahead of disease together.
Joanna: You very much and I will now open up the call for Q&A with the team.
Joanna: Okay.
Joanna: Sure.
Joanna: Thanks.
Joanna: Ask that you limit yourself to only 1%.
Joanna: So the.
Joanna: Possible for our first question will go to Emily field from Barclays.
Joanna: <unk>.
Joanna: Yeah.
Joanna: Can you please ask your cotai.
Joanna: Hi, Thanks for taking my.
Joanna: Questions I'll ask two hopefully quick ones.
Joanna: Firstly.
Joanna: I know you mentioned.
Joanna: Right.
Joanna:
Joanna: With the merger announcement yesterday on Gardasil, a lot of concern that that says.
Joanna: The deterioration in the economy.
Joanna: Okay.
Joanna: Just wondering if you could provide a little bit granularity.
Joanna: For <unk> in China in.
Joanna: In 2025, and then secondly.
Joanna: I would say mid single digit growth for HIV for for 2025 are you assuming much of a competitive impact from the launch of <unk> in the second half of this year. Thank you.
David: Well, we'll come to David in a minute.
Joanna: On HIV and our confidence.
Joanna: Well, let's go to link first on China I would flag. This is something that we address.
Yeah.
Joanna: Okay.
Joanna: Our positioning of audio with a trusted partners USA.
Joanna: And I think still remains slow.
Joanna: Hello.
Joanna: The short term brushes were acknowledged.
Joanna: Thank you.
Joanna: But none of that takes away, although its ambition electronic thanks Amazon.
Joanna: Emily I mean, as Emma said look there's much more to add than what I covered on the AMR.
Joanna: And our market share is around 70% and Thats. Our target population then we're very happy with the partnership with jet.
Joanna: We intend to extend it out to 2024 as to whats to address exactly what we're saying right now which is just now getting these short term headwinds.
Joanna: Operationally as partners on the ground with Japan to expand in those hard to cities.
Joanna: Initial signs are encouraging, but again I wouldn't expect tons from 2025 members at the mid to longer term plan.
Tom: Yes, Thanks, Tom anything.
Tom: So obviously with a continued strong bidding in Q4, we might see them tons of sales.
Tom: I think on your specific question look we certainly.
Tom: Great this year.
Tom: Got some format for prep market in the U S.
Tom: Amanda.
Speaker Change: Stacy estimates I think about one point.
Millions of Americans could benefit from prep I'm staring at about a third of the base again any form of treatment.
Speaker Change: We also know that the price.
Speaker Change: Mark.
Speaker Change: It's very well suited for long acting options.
Akshay: And I think Akshay and now the competitive products have very similar.
Speaker Change: Strong efforts.
Speaker Change: Well definitely better than the old world, mainly due to the compliance.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Speaker Change: Second long acting again.
Speaker Change: And to the market.
Speaker Change: It should help grow the market for all of us.
Speaker Change: Secondly.
Speaker Change: The competitive product that they won't be for everyone. We now know that's quite a high frequency of nodules that people experiencing the optimum.
Kevin Hoover: Where the two injections that Kevin.
Kevin Hoover: I think in the pivotal studies about 63% of participants experienced in lot not Joe dose with a mean duration of about six months seven cases, both duration.
Kevin Hoover: I expect we'll learn a lot more as the year goes on.
Kevin Hoover: One more real world evidence relaxing what type of patients from the slides based not Joseph plentiful.
Kevin Hoover: But for potential.
Kevin Hoover: Sure.
Kevin Hoover: The image conscious which would be quite a proportion of them I think that potentially as an issue.
Kevin Hoover: I would also flag that the competitive product has quite a high number of drug drug interactions may 14 classes of commonly prescribed.
Kevin Hoover: Scripture medicines corticosteroids erectile dysfunction medicines thankful.
Kevin Hoover: And also <unk> recreational and.
Kevin Hoover:
Kevin Hoover: Thanks Todd.
Kevin Hoover: Nelson insightful.
Kevin Hoover: These details can be serious.
Kevin Hoover: Our extreme cases potentially caused by first penetrate depression.
Kevin Hoover: Ken.
Kevin Hoover: <unk> as a potential users. Thank you mismatch at Myrtle Beach.
Kevin Hoover: So let's see how this unfolds.
Kevin Hoover: I think we expect to grow in a growing market. Thanks, David.
Speaker Change: Just to underpin we welcome the opportunity to grow the market, but even if this market triples in size when we get to the 100% participation to the broader market the senior citizens.
Speaker Change: The treatment is still where most of the businesses and here. We obviously made the way so our next question Jason.
Speaker Change: Great. The next question will be from Richard Parkes at BNP Exane.
Speaker Change: <unk>.
Speaker Change: Hi, Thanks for taking my questions.
Speaker Change: Couple of questions on vaccines targets, so and on the Rx. The office you saw rapid penetration of the U S market, but there's still a large international opportunities can you just.
Speaker Change: If you wish to.
Speaker Change: To access side 2025 and Wilkie.
Speaker Change: And driving that limiting your ability to access the opportunity is.
Speaker Change: Then again on vaccines.
Speaker Change: Obviously, you talked about moderating expectations for Oxy Xing Rex can you talk about what's assumed for peak sales of both of those products now because I think the market's quite skeptical about your prior peak sales targets given given the current headwinds.
Speaker Change: I'm just wondering what the offsets are to raising notes two.
Speaker Change: <unk> thousand 31 targets.
Speaker Change: <unk>, obviously been included but it sounds like some of the offsets that way youre more optimistic so helping understand those moving parts would be helpful. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Thanks, Rich and then I'll come to <unk> to add a bit more color on how we see the opportunities to go outside of Taiwan, a rich because we really are the foothills of this vaccine.
Speaker Change: Which as you know.
Speaker Change: Thrilled with the data that has come through on its efficacy in a high burden of disease.
Speaker Change: Are you explicitly there's no change to our ambitions for all assets a b, that's our existing ones.
Speaker Change: An exciting pipeline that.
Speaker Change: Coming through later in the decade. The real question is actually the area under the curve and obviously last year you saw us.
Speaker Change: Calibrate our expectations at 24, we just had Q3, we expect it to recalibrate.
Speaker Change: There's all sorts of maintaining that.
Speaker Change: And acknowledge the short term questions on.
Speaker Change: On vaccines.
Speaker Change: And 25, Judy Slide 10 that we expected the mix change has been more explicit today, we'd be more explicit today on how that mix changes and all that just flow through to our updated 2031 outlets alongside as you suggest Richard.
Speaker Change: The impact of 13 positive phase threes.
Speaker Change: Momentum in our specialty business more broadly and as Judy said, we've upgraded.
Speaker Change: Acknowledging the pressures on vaccines, we've upgraded our 26 outlook for total specialty for HIV Balsam fir and match these brokers and we've added in blood Red.
Speaker Change: As I outlined in our lines production.
Speaker Change: Doesn't yet include our intent to invest in progressing the early stage pipeline or our intent to pursue further BD like the kind of assets that you have from each well.
Speaker Change: At the beginning of January <unk>.
Speaker Change: Yeah in that sense.
Speaker Change: Yeah, I think the key takeaway on this is the strength of our broad portfolio and the progress we're making in the broader pipeline means we can digest. These are what we think are short term pressures, but the U S and in China, and we remain optimistic.
Speaker Change: About Buda.
Speaker Change: Ah yes.
Speaker Change: Lots more to come.
Speaker Change: But take in oncology in R&R.
Speaker Change: Hi.
Speaker Change: Rental agency diesel the other part about this type of threat.
Speaker Change: With that I think that comes back.
Speaker Change: Explicitly to RSV.
Speaker Change: And how you see the international Genesee whatever the weather in the U S is at the moment sure. Thanks, Emma and thanks Richard.
Speaker Change: Last year.
Speaker Change: 10% of revenue was ex U S.
Speaker Change: I'm very well.
Speaker Change: What we're saying.
Speaker Change: It's early days, but we know what we're doing in this context.
Speaker Change: I think with these national immunization programs, which I said earlier six cents in the U K Grace.
Speaker Change: Check.
Speaker Change: Sally.
Speaker Change: Strong tenant there as well as critical success.
Speaker Change: With CECO in Germany.
Speaker Change: In addition to the U S. I think it's an encouraging sign I think what also is important as these systems will differentiate based on clinical data.
Speaker Change: And <unk>.
Speaker Change: The market research that we have in these key markets is certainly very encouraging in terms of the perception of <unk> efficacy efficacy of high risk groups as well as the durability and cost effectiveness of the vaccine.
Speaker Change: We look forward to updating you more this year.
Speaker Change: So that's.
Mike: Good stuff. Thanks, Mike next question please.
Moderator: The next question, we will go to Steve Scala from Cowen.
Mike: Steve.
Mike: Okay.
Mike: Yes.
Mike: Hi, Steve Thanks for joining us early.
Mike: Yeah.
Mike: It's asking Steve to Aneel themselves.
Mike: Yeah.
Mike: Okay.
Mike: Okay.
Mike: Alright, Steve will come back to you.
Mike: Instead, let's go to Peter Welford Jefferies.
Mike: Peter.
Mike: Hi, Thanks, two questions. Firstly, just to give me the recipe that this time in the U S. I will give you just talk a little bit about the competitive environment.
Mike: Because I guess in the last particularly the last part of the season that we see the prescription data for <unk> and it looks at those prices beginning to claw back quite a bit of share compared to what we've seen in the past can you just talk a little of that contracting that you're saying I guess the base year and perhaps also reluctant I guess held back from from pumps as buyers I guess.
Mike: We're engaged given what I imagined that hub must be pretty uncertain demand going into the next season, which I appreciate it's still months and months why.
Mike: And then secondly, just on the buyback I mean, clearly reflect your confidence in the longer term pipeline that you already have I'm guessing internally relative to how the market perceives the RMB and about what you have for new launches. So I guess could you talk a little about how.
Mike: I guess, how much and when we look at that chart how much of it do you think is reflecting also things like long acting HIV and maybe you could put a number on that.
Mike: <unk> HIV business could be.
Mike: The visit of alloy expires that we see and I guess trying to.
Speaker Change: Built some published data what is the market missing do you think in terms of <unk>.
Speaker Change: Brazilians after the base business that gives you the confidence due to allocate capital to buybacks.
Speaker Change: Yeah, well lots of questions Peter I'll come back in a minute to look on the U S commercial and Robert and vaccines, obviously lots.
Speaker Change: Lots of external commentary on.
Speaker Change: Speculation on that for 2025, which also underpins why we say that sort of pressured external environment.
Speaker Change: They can add further comment on the commercial side.
Speaker Change: Oh gosh.
Speaker Change: Completely consistent with our capital allocation framework.
Speaker Change: That we've laid out and the first priority continues to be as.
Speaker Change: I said to invest in inkjet a grace.
Speaker Change: The best in the pipeline to invest.
Speaker Change: And it is exciting new launches that we've got coming through the <unk>.
Slide approvals, we hope.
Speaker Change: To have this year.
Speaker Change: Particularly as they progress the 40 G assets other R&D with commercial partners.
Speaker Change: And I working together on.
Speaker Change: Bringing it all.
Speaker Change: Also we will continue to supplement our plan.
Speaker Change: It's continuing to supplement that.
Speaker Change: With a further business development.
Speaker Change: The point is the along slides.
Speaker Change: Priority. We also continue to demonstrate our focus on improving shareholder returns and obviously considering the momentum of the business the progress in the business the strengthening of the balance sheet.
Speaker Change: Very confident that we have at the circumstances and the opportunity to deliver really compelling returns to shareholders with this announcement.
Speaker Change: But we've made today.
Speaker Change: Today now.
Speaker Change: I am not going to go age by individual product forecast in terms of what we will deliver in 'twenty.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Speaker Change: We'd given a I think a reasonable schematics that we presented you shapes mugger stable with somebody and this is really the key thing I think people should take away from today is our biggest business.
Speaker Change: 19% in 2024 with every single therapy area and growing at double digits, it's still a nascent business the progress we're making in oncology, it's very excite.
Exciting and we have a potentially really material contribution to make even if the launch is staged and it's really about the contribution to <unk> 26 to 31 suddenly not 20.
Speaker Change: 25, but we're very excited about coming through and remember that doesn't yet include the slide that we were pleased to start a study let's see.
Speaker Change: The data we have.
Speaker Change: Overall survival is we think it's game changing as well as life changing.
Speaker Change: And so very excited about comes back and what could be added with adcs.
Speaker Change:
Speaker Change: The purpose of upset Tonight explicitly on HIV six monthly drugs are not yet included in this outlook. So that's also worth bearing in mind. So I think that's what people should suggest that one should that for one second I'll commit to our vaccine portfolio that really is.
Speaker Change: The shifted the mix, which is JD also said secures the profitability of the business.
Speaker Change: On the gross margin too.
With that.
Speaker Change: Maybe you can comment specifically on it.
Speaker Change: Commercial world in several states.
Peter: Yes, Thanks Peter.
Speaker Change: I mean, I think when I sit in.
Speaker Change: I'm out with its surprising decision in June when we call a spud to spud and we said it was going to be tough and I think the evidence is indicated that that was correct.
Speaker Change: If you if you look at penetration rates in the U S.
Speaker Change: Most recent data we have is in November.
Speaker Change: Contrast that with December 2023.
Speaker Change:
Speaker Change: What I said.
Speaker Change: No there's clearly happened people follow ons.
Speaker Change: If you look at penetration in the 75 plus population at the end of 'twenty three that's about 17%.
Speaker Change: Only increased up to 26%.
Speaker Change: 24.
Speaker Change: And if you look at it as high risk individuals in the 60 to 74 population went from 11% to 19% and in a generally healthy population, where I sit with steering people away.
Speaker Change: Just to increase from nine 4% to around 14%. So there is a shift here in terms of demand.
Speaker Change: If we look at market research and profile physician stope, a fairer fight.
Scott.
Speaker Change: Just a couple of times to me.
Speaker Change: Key element here is to navigate what we think is going to be a transition from a three vaccine market to a true vaccine market.
Speaker Change: Huge amount of pressure.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Speaker Change: The pressure in the market for the contracting cycle loss I think we've navigated that quite well our focus remains on retail and what I would strongly stress as we need to compare apples with apples when were talking market shares so it.
Speaker Change: Need to adjust the market shares from internal volumes, where we don't have the liable. So if you do that.
Speaker Change: And 2024, we had about a 58% market share.
Speaker Change: So about $1 out of $7 million, but with a retrofit.
Speaker Change: I think we're happy with that.
Speaker Change: The key thing is to preserve value and position ourselves for the future. When we do think it ultimately will move to expand this population by installing the evidence there will be a re banks at some point that we wanted to be positioned to compete when Pfizer very actively at that point. Thanks.
Speaker Change: And then I think you want to add some MBS translated from fixed monthly pizza.
Speaker Change: It's not in our forecast, but I certainly agree with you that it could be a potential upside.
Speaker Change: Basically you're actually been important yeah perfect.
Speaker Change: We will have proof of concept data <unk> for let's say the two options that we kept.
Speaker Change: The one I for one of the other states.
Speaker Change: And the last thing Brian study is six months I think we'll have a croydon and also our capsid.
Speaker Change: The aim is to look at that data this year, and then make a regimen selections.
Speaker Change: Glenn.
Speaker Change: And also changed.
Speaker Change: April perhaps.
Speaker Change: Next year potentially wrong start running the pivotal studies in 2027.
Speaker Change: As we go into next year in 2007 months, what was the time when we think about formalizing the forecast.
Speaker Change: Yeah Amanda.
Speaker Change: It was only four years ago, we said we were expecting more than 33 billion in 2031 say, it's more than 40.
Speaker Change: You can see we're already close to that number are in R&D.
Speaker Change: In the near term. So yes, we are confident in our prospects and yes. We've got we've always go home today next question. Please.
Speaker Change: So let's go back to Steve Scala from Athena Cowen.
Speaker Change: Steve if you can.
Speaker Change: Can I ask a question.
Speaker Change: Thank you that was minus eight.
Speaker Change: Two questions for new collar is the exacerbation data competitive with <unk>.
Speaker Change: And have you shown an FPV benefit.
Speaker Change: And if not your statement that you will lead in COPD might seem less secure.
Speaker Change: And secondly, you noted that TSA specs changes to U S vaccine policy.
Speaker Change: This contrasts with what another major vaccine company said just last week when they reported that company expects no changes so in practical on the ground every day terms, what exactly do you expect to happen and which vaccines or is this more of kind of a vague.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: Well, thanks, Dave I'll come to Tony <unk>.
Speaker Change: Second on the call are there any point I would like is our ambition and COPD is a credit portfolio or pipeline that China did shack in December as well as new color I'm showing you want to.
Speaker Change: Comments on that Nicolas just thus far into biologics for us that and then in terms of changes to U S. I think our point was.
Speaker Change: We are not significant.
Speaker Change: Alicia let's face it doesn't have a lot of bets over the last few months around what kind of changes that might be.
Speaker Change: Vaccine policy and.
Speaker Change: No that is definitely one of the contributors to our view around the show some questions on the environment in the U S.
Are we all say a snake reemphasize.
Speaker Change: Still.
Speaker Change: Living with the decisions that were made by age last year and the key assumption is.
Speaker Change: From us in that context is there will be.
Speaker Change: Hmm.
Speaker Change: The.
Speaker Change: Indications, Okay Cobo expansion assumed on RSV.
Speaker Change: This year Oh, we do over time expect them to be added and as Lee said relax as well.
Speaker Change: Thank the only point I would add.
Speaker Change: Without wishing to predict exactly what's going to happen is it was good to hear.
Speaker Change: Yeah, and it's really the nomination process.
Speaker Change: Yes.
Speaker Change: Okay reiterate.
Speaker Change: He is a recognition of the value of vaccines and children are being vaccinated and also over the weekend.
Speaker Change: And the discussions with Senator Cassidy.
Speaker Change: <unk> got some guidance is on the.
Speaker Change: And I say it should remain unchanged.
Speaker Change: Let's see how this plays out we'll know.
Speaker Change: A lot more through 2025 and look forward to some of the speculation based vessels yeah.
Tony Stoss: Tony do you want to.
Speaker Change: Yes.
Speaker Change: On demand economy.
Speaker Change: The first thing I'd say, we're looking forward to being able to share that.
How do you call. It data set with you soon and obviously not going to get into the details.
Speaker Change: On vacation, but perhaps just stress.
Speaker Change: A few aspects as I said I'm going to take.
Speaker Change: In the context of exacerbations in the patient population. So if approved you call is going to be the first monetarily biological proven to reduce exacerbations across the full spectrum of BGC and <unk>.
Speaker Change: It does.
Speaker Change: <unk>.
Speaker Change: In particular that includes individuals with emphysema.
Speaker Change: Most difficult to treat you will recall from the data that we've previously published around the two prior phase.
Speaker Change: Three studies across a population and exacerbation reduction of risk in the order of around about 20% is typical in.
Speaker Change: In the broader population I'd also stress that we went to great lengths to ensure that we removed comorbid asthma patients from that study as well and so I'm thinking it's.
Speaker Change: It's difficult to compare side by side. However, we are we have broader population about a third of the COPD population.
Speaker Change: As FEMA remind us just to comment on that but one final thing as you guys look back at all data.
Speaker Change: Similar populations.
Speaker Change: Bush saw a similar sort of timeline of efficacy on exacerbations, but it's important not to compare across headline data because those are very different patient characteristics.
Speaker Change: Studies, Yeah, Thanks, Steve I mean, tiny and I've spent a lot of time talking about this I think you just need to look at it.
Speaker Change: Practically on the ground.
Speaker Change: Tony mentioned about a third of the patients have the same airline.
Speaker Change: A third of them have bronchitis.
Speaker Change: But also I would say to them have mix it can be difficult to separate those.
Speaker Change: Practically also when you look at that you pick the population they were not sick they ever go two to three.
Speaker Change: Moderate to severe whereas we were too to fall, which included very severe.
And I think.
Speaker Change: Our goal report, which just came out last year's said, it's pretty much positioning GP.
Speaker Change: In that Brian bronchitis.
Speaker Change: Subset.
Speaker Change: So again I don't want to <unk>.
I think we'd have a broader argument here and there.
Speaker Change: So the important thing is to focus on hospitalizations.
Speaker Change: When people go into hospital, obviously, many of them don't come out.
Doug: And it's just off a cast guys hey, its Doug.
Speaker Change: In summary, we've got at the top of the tree, that's a broader population.
Speaker Change: And yes, let's see what the application and the reception from the community says.
Speaker Change: We intend to compete.
Speaker Change: There was a request from the pick some for more competition and we intend to provide it.
Speaker Change: But the opportunity to grow biologics on the market by the way all fantastic.
Speaker Change: Uh huh.
Speaker Change: P J and I are ready.
Speaker Change: So I can just say what low vaccine.
Speaker Change: Drugs are going to bring him.
Speaker Change: So good to say that we're you know we're going into like COPD study for Duffy.
Speaker Change: We've also got the aisles and.
Speaker Change: As well, but you know if any night out. So I think this is the beginning of some exciting prospects in biologics that will get much stronger through the end of the decade.
Speaker Change: And the disease is.
Speaker Change: Third leading cause of death, Oh, so when you're talking about scale opportunities, David just helping to feel that we're really not what we're talking about this is a good one.
Speaker Change: Next question please.
Raj Sharma: Next question is from Raj Sharma from Goldman Sachs Raj on Europe.
Raj Sharma: Hi, Thanks for taking my question just first one was on H I V could you just discuss the dynamics driving that positive impact from channel mix.
Raj Sharma: Theres, a lower proportion of Medicaid patients and do you expect that to continue into into 'twenty five 'twenty six.
Raj Sharma: And then the second question is just on the 'twenty one guidance update so you've taken up guidance by $2 billion in revenue, which includes plan right, which you've previously.
Raj Sharma: 3 billion peak sales opportunity. So just to be clear should we read that I was kind of a billion.
Raj Sharma: Reduction in the guidance, including land right.
Raj Sharma: And I would expect timberland rep to reach its peak until.
Raj Sharma: And then just a related there's quite a bit of a difference between where consensus is right. Now is there anything, particularly that you'd call out as weather where that delta is.
Speaker Change: Yeah I mean.
You might Wanna comment in a minute on <unk>.
Speaker Change: Census, as much as you wish to and I'll come to David on HIV, but first of all to be clear the outlook for 31 is a more than.
Speaker Change: <unk> 40 billion and we're pleased.
Speaker Change: <unk> made that up as I've said, which is a combination of rolling forward the mix shift in in 'twenty six.
Speaker Change: In our phase three <unk> results.
Speaker Change: It's across the portfolio and the inclusion of the blend reps second line launch as well there is no change to our ambition of bladder ought to be more than 3 billion peak sales. There was no time touch on that and.
Speaker Change: And we're looking for which the contribution of the five approvals that we flagged and more to come really contributing about 26 to 31.
David: Outlook, So David you want to come out.
Speaker Change: Rosa and I think the main channel mix.
Speaker Change: Evolution. We expect this year is just the ongoing rise of three or four.
Speaker Change: Which is somewhat of a headwind, but not huge.
Speaker Change: I think it's going to be more.
Speaker Change: The Medicaid and the related <unk> Libra White a.
Speaker Change: Hey, Jeff and Staples are about 40% of the U S HIV business.
Speaker Change: Medicare is about twice daily.
Speaker Change: Daily increasing over time, obviously as patients get older.
Speaker Change: And the rest is private insurers.
Speaker Change: Yeah, very much apart from three or four it would be I think pretty much the same trends continue.
Sergei: Thanks Sergei.
Speaker Change: Yes.
Speaker Change: So in terms of the difference with consensus in terms of our outlook.
Speaker Change: Which is more than $40 billion to main therapeutic areas, where we most of the difference our oncology and respiratory <unk> immunology and inflammation.
Speaker Change: And within the oncology antibody.
Speaker Change: Two biggest ones that plan Rep, and obviously people are probably waiting for the law.
Speaker Change: And then also Jim Hurley suddenly about lifecycle indication and you've seen the track record we've got on Gen. Paleo Randy with some important beta.
Speaker Change: Coming up today is two big differences and then within the respect he and you don't see an inflationary Ed.
We've got <unk>, where obviously people are waiting for the readout coming about a year and then also I guess some income of interestingly, even though we know.
Speaker Change: A successful filing and cleaning with the previously expected towards the end of the air and the launch at the beginning of 2006. So those are the main areas of difference, which we had Scott with consensus thanks Jay.
Speaker Change: Let's remember I think it's 72 cents of productions in exacerbations that cause hospitalization on.
Speaker Change: On that basis or even if that's a.
Speaker Change: Really a 26 not touching that an appraisal at the end of this year.
Speaker Change: Just considering the burden of disease cost of hospitalization.
Speaker Change: She has a mandate presented this research pool from H C piece as well as patients for this that's definitely once launched next question. Please next question will be from Jeff Smith at Bernstein Jonathan.
Jeff Smith: Yes. Many thanks, indeed, it's just one of them on blend rate sorry, if it is a slightly ignorant question, but with regards to that dream 10 phase III first line.
Speaker Change: The endpoint just could you share a few thoughts about endpoint resonates with payers and community docs, particularly those outside the U S.
Jeff Smith: Let me just start with the <unk>.
Speaker Change: Dynamics.
Speaker Change: The plan associated with that Marty and I remind you of what we've already seen with molecular batches in 2007, and Bill you mentioned that perhaps I can hand over to you in terms of the.
Speaker Change: The residents with with key docs so.
So we were expecting.
Speaker Change: And again I remind you that.
Speaker Change: I know that.
Speaker Change: Clinical is the use of LTE as an IV companies already just.
Speaker Change: Last year or a recommendation for use of the phone.
Speaker Change: He standpoint, we started the studies that I mentioned in December we're expecting the first readout on.
Speaker Change: The data in 2007, what needs to occur over the intervening period than others.
Speaker Change: Based on their own first line study is a relationship between an understanding of the MLP and a more established strengths as Ken pointed like PFS, what we know from our own analysis.
Speaker Change: Dream Center, you mentioned on each other.
Speaker Change: <unk> is when we look at.
Speaker Change: Characteristic on details of that in all key Readouts and we see a similarly improved outcome for bankruptcy process. Its contents baskets, but look you might want to comment on yeah. Yeah. Thanks, Justin just to build on Chinese find them in the market research, we get to see exactly what the FDA is signaling which is the <unk> date is it practical response to very long.
Speaker Change: <unk>.
Speaker Change: Clinical feasibility and thus far what are these not as a replacement survival in second line and I think that's.
Speaker Change: Critical when you say that.
Speaker Change: And as we've talked about earlier, we've got very strong data in second line and look forward to talking more about it over the year.
Speaker Change: Next question. Please Greg next question will be from Graham Parry of Bank of America.
Greg: Great. Thanks, Jay.
Speaker Change: Hey, two questions. So first question is just on the guidance for 2025, so relative to consensus.
Speaker Change: It's like the guide is a little bit worse than consensus is looking at vaccines. The Gen. Med is back to a stable I think makes for looking for a decline that's like could you give some little bit more color behind the outlook on Gen med, especially as I think there was some rebates just the benefits to <unk> and CQ lost TSA actually the underlying great. So what gives you confidence.
Speaker Change: Holding flat in the year and maybe the durability of that beyond 2025, and then secondly on the buyback and our free cash flow.
Speaker Change: Allocation, just perhaps give us a little bit of a sense, where you see free cash flow in 2025.
Speaker Change: If you're generating around $3 billion in 'twenty four you, leaving two 2 billion in share buyback.
Speaker Change: And you've highlighted low leverage are you now assuming you're going to increase leverage through the year.
Speaker Change: As you see opportunistic to fund opportunistic BDO to make sure you still hunting the pipeline. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Thanks, Glenn, let's say break questions for Chile.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Chris: Thanks, Chris So in terms of from BRL already just let we had last year in the second quarter.
Chris: It was largely because there's a high level, obviously, Turkey is performing extremely well and that attracts high levels.
Chris: And we have a true up in the second quarter simply because when the claims are coming in they were at a lower level than that.
Chris: Expected.
Chris: When the people are moving into the content drops that coverage quite tough.
Chris: And that was causing that obviously, we don't know, but it was a benefit in the second.
Chris: As last year.
Chris: In terms of that leverage point, obviously, we've ended the year really well.
Chris: We saw leverage of one to one two times net debt to EBITDA.
Chris: We'd expect around the buyback as we mentioned David periods within 18 months.
Chris: Honestly, the way see will be more towards 2025% of luxury joined.
Chris: During the course of the AR.
Chris: In terms of cash flow expectations.
Chris: 25 mm.
Chris: Obviously slightly below 2094, we've got nozomi tax settlement getting through.
Chris: She is expected in the second quarter and then we'll have an upside from obviously operating profit growth are likely and trade payables.
Speaker Change: Great next question please.
Speaker Change: As a last question yeah. So let's go with one final question from James Gordon.
Speaker Change: James.
Speaker Change: Sure.
Speaker Change: Thanks for taking the questions.
Speaker Change: Two quick ones, one was capital allocation building one of the earlier questions.
Speaker Change: So where is the ceiling in terms of how levered the company without bearing you'll now be about one six times.
Speaker Change: Could you go much above that and so you could still do multibillion upon deals or was that optionality off the table right. That's the first question.
Speaker Change: Second question just come to fix them as mentioned so.
Speaker Change: So I think when you get one of the phase III data. This year early next year.
Speaker Change: But most carefully which source of pizza hut, maybe similar efficacy to you with phase two and so we didn't come to market.
Speaker Change: What is the latest thinking and what you actually need to show it.
Speaker Change: Our confidence.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Speaker Change: Thanks.
Speaker Change: Come to China.
Speaker Change: On that study.
Speaker Change: We got coming and you might say.
Speaker Change: As a reminder of why.
Yeah.
Speaker Change: All in all the patients.
Speaker Change: Generally yes.
Speaker Change: Our capital allocation.
Speaker Change: What we've said.
Speaker Change: Our number one priority.
Speaker Change: Today I'm very pleased with the discipline that Chris go ahead kind of element.
Speaker Change: No problems at all core areas.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Speaker Change: You know that might be a rest of very high return.
There's a really nice okay.
Speaker Change: It's one that we just announced you should expect them to kind of be doing we've been doing at the kind of.
Speaker Change: Scale and pace.
Speaker Change: Focus on the discipline that we've been.
Speaker Change: Obviously, you want to answer that.
Speaker Change: Allocation with a strong balance sheet.
Speaker Change: And then if there's a sense of something you Wanna say leverage.
Speaker Change: Yes.
Speaker Change: No I think in terms of the ceiling you question about the ceiling and obviously, we want to retain a strong investment grade maintain cleanly banking agencies getting a period anyway with regard that's really not such a number because it's not a scientific number.
Speaker Change: Basically very comfortable with where the balance sheet today as I said as I mentioned very clear priority, it's about capital allocation they haven't changed.
Speaker Change: The robustness of the balance sheet that allows us to do the buyback.
Speaker Change: Complementing it with what we were already doing M. D. J I also thought it was.
Speaker Change: Strong momentum in the delivery of the business.
Speaker Change: <unk>.
Speaker Change: Funding for Mantech.
Speaker Change: Excellent.
Speaker Change: James I think it's really important.
Speaker Change: And Peter <unk> III.
Speaker Change: Just to think about efficacy.
Speaker Change: Let's think about therapeutic index, if you will.
Speaker Change: Remember.
Speaker Change: <unk> has a far improved therapeutic index, particularly with regards to taste.
Speaker Change: We have less than 5%.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Speaker Change: Just kind of keep a scent taste disturbance.
Speaker Change: It's hard to run a study where neurons blinding youre treatment group I think we have just to keep it short.
Speaker Change: Our superior asset.
Speaker Change: Trial program, which is designed to take account of.
Speaker Change: The.
Speaker Change: Frequency of course as.
Jeff Smith: As I mentioned, we will not be unblinded functionally by the Assortments in a way that Jeff will give you the most.
Speaker Change: Just to build on Chinese point I've been the smoothest phase II Bay, we saw about 34% cost reduction.
Jeff Smith: I think Chinese state doing an excellent job since the execution of that study.
Speaker Change: This molecule was the message.
Jeff Smith: Brian and validated the target for us.
Speaker Change: And that selectivity and there were some challenges in study design around kind of feasible being incorporated into a program. When we talk to Pulmonologist. Thanks still express <unk>.
Speaker Change: <unk> is a big if we modeled out to 2030, we expect around just any just under 3 million patients in the U S will have had chronic cough for more than a year that actually over that number in Europe. So we're talking large numbers of patients sitting in primary care and also pulmonologists respiratory physicians offices and there are limited options for those people.
Speaker Change: This point really high guest satisfaction with car.
Speaker Change: So thanks everybody.
Speaker Change: After a strong 24, we really are looking forward to another year of profitable growth and pipeline progress and we're really pleased to be upgrading together all 2031 outlets again with a prospect for 50% of our business by more than 50% being in specialty medicines and this continues.
Speaker Change: <unk> strong balance sheet really underwrite underpinning our plans to continue to increase investment in our 14 key assets that we think is strong.
Speaker Change: The pipeline and BJ.
Speaker Change: They are successful launches ahead and of course, staying focused on improving our direct returns to shareholders with banks. So everyone will look forward to catching up with you in coming days.
Speaker Change: Yeah.