Q4 2024 BP PLC Earnings Call
Welcome everybody to BP's fourth quarter and full year results call.
We'll be focusing today's call on the fourth quarter and 2024 performance and the contents of the video that I hope many of you will have seen by now.
I also understand there is significant interest in our capital markets update in a couple of weeks time. However, I'm sure you'll also appreciate that we can't comment on any issues relating to that today, so please focus your questions accordingly. With that, let me hand over to Murray.
Murray: Thanks, Craig. And thanks, everyone, for joining Kate and I on the call today.
When I look back at 2024, we've achieved a lot.
Murray: We've made significant strategic progress, taking decisive action and reshaping our portfolio, and laying the foundations for growth, including 10 new FIDs, including Cascada and Tangu.
New access in Iraq and India.
divesting tail assets in Trinidad
exiting the Empire Wind in the U.S. offshore.
Murray: Decapitalizing our offshore wind business by agreeing to form a joint venture, Jaren XBP.
Murray: focusing our EV charging business and our hydrogen pipeline, acquiring full ownership of BP Bioenergy and Light Source BP, and recently announcing our intention to sell the Gelson-Kirken refinery.
Murray: In two weeks' time, we will build on the actions taken in the last 12 months and provide a comprehensive update at our capital markets event. It will be a fundamental reset of our strategy. It will demonstrate our focus on actions to drive performance. And it will enable us to grow cash flow and returns and shareholder value.
Murray: With that said, let me focus on today and briefly recap our highlights for this year.
Murray: Many of our businesses performed well during 2024. Upstream production was around 2.36 million barrels per day, up 2% this year, with plant reliability above 95%.
Murray: It was a good year for trading, and its track record for delivering an average 4% uplift to Group Hirauchi now extends to the past five years, despite the lack of volatility.
Murray: But, we have had a difficult year in refining, with a widening outage in 1Q and the challenging margin in environment, and we were also impacted by the weaker biofuels margins and trucking recession impact on TA.
Murray: We remain firmly focused on taking action to improve our performance across refining and on the work to integrate our recently acquired businesses into BP, driving the synergies and underlying performance that we expect.
Murray: Finally, on distributions, we grew our dividend per share by 10% and announced $7 billion of share buybacks, including a $1.75 billion announced today.
Craig: With that summary, let's go to Q&A. Over to you to get us started, Craig.
Craig: Thanks Murray, given my earlier remarks I'm going to ask you to each limit yourselves to one question so we can let everyone get a chance.
Craig: We'll look to close the call by 1.45 p.m. time. There's obviously plenty of time in two weeks time for more questions. And of course, the IR team is available to follow up.
Craig: So with that, let's get started. I think we will take the first question from Josh Stone at UBS, please. Josh.
Yeah, I Craig and good afternoon.
Josh Stone: With my one question, I'll focus on the refining and trading performance this quarter. It's another week quarter, but you talk about improvement plans. I just wanted to get a sense of how confident are you of the issues?
Josh Stone: Your experience in 2024 are now in the rear, rear view mirror end.
Josh Stone: What more can be done to improve the profitability of that division? And maybe if you can give any early insights of how.
Speaker Change: Brady has performed during the first quarter, given we're almost halfway through. Thanks. Great. Thanks, Josh. Thanks for the question. You're right. It was a challenging year for refining.
Speaker Change: The industry and the basins in which we were operating were probably bottom of cycle for margin and pricing.
Speaker Change: So I think that's an industry-wide issue that we're a part of as well.
Speaker Change: But of course we had the outage in 1Q in Whiting as well.
an electrical fault that tripped the plant.
Speaker Change: In 4Q itself, reliability was fine across the portfolio. We, of course, had a massive turnaround at Whiting. It was a huge program. We replaced the Coker Tops, which is an incredible effort by the teams. And so that, obviously, dramatically impacted the results in 4Q.
as we look forward.
Speaker Change: We are confident that we will continue to improve the business. Gordon can talk about this in a few weeks time when we talk through what we're doing to improve the refining business. We're focused on four things. First of all, getting plant reliability back to that 96 percent, making sure that we don't have material trips.
Speaker Change: Turnarounds are going well, maintenance is going well, but we have to stick to it to make sure we hit that 96% and Gordon and the team are laser beam focused on that. Out of that then comes the ability to commercially optimize.
Speaker Change: And last, we will have a year of much lower complexity, TARS in 2025 and 2024.
Speaker Change: That should all take us back to profitability, and I think we feel confident in that. And again, in two weeks' time, Gordon can take you through those plans. On trading, it was an average year, a 4% year.
Speaker Change: Despite the lack of volatility on the oil and refined products side, I think you'll have seen some of that reported out of competitors about how far down they were.
Speaker Change: So the teams did well to make sure that we continued to hit that track record.
that we've had over the past five years.
Speaker Change: Now, looking forward, refining margins started the year very bad in January. They're starting to uptick now as we move into tar season globally.
Speaker Change: I think the RMMs are up a bit and we're starting to see some volatility. So I think that's probably all I'll say, Josh, but we're laser beam focused on it. We know we need to do better and we will. Thanks for the question.
Thanks Josh. We'll turn next to Peter Lowe at Redburn.
Peter Lowe: Hi, thanks. Yeah, I just had a question on some of your recent upstream announcements. So your deal with ONGC and then also the redevelopment of KUKUK. Can you perhaps talk a bit more about what you found attractive about those opportunities and then potentially the sort of returns you might see for those sorts of technical service contract type agreements? Thanks.
Yep.
Peter Lowe: Great, Peter. Thanks for the questions. Look, we've established a pretty strong track record.
Peter Lowe: in the Middle East and Far East of being able to help operators with late-light developments.
Peter Lowe: So as water starts to come into developments, as you have to develop tricky reservoirs, we've built a very, very strong reputation.
Peter Lowe: started in Alaska, moved to Samantla or Ramail is a good example of it, etc. So we have a very strong track record in this and that's what's enabling us to take advantage of these opportunities for direct access like in India and like in Iraq. In ONGC, it's a services contract
Peter Lowe: We're very pleased with it. We don't apply cost or capital, instead we provide people and advice to drive stronger performance inside that business.
Peter Lowe: I can't really talk about what the commercial returns are, but they're quite attractive for India and they're quite attractive for us.
Peter Lowe: actually can do very well for each other if we can start to drive that production higher. And we believe, based on all the due diligence we've done, that we can certainly help India with that.
Peter Lowe: And then on Kirkuk, we're in the final throes of the negotiations now. Five domes of oil, 20 billion barrels yet to produce.
Peter Lowe: And of course, it's because of our track record inside the nation that we're able to help them there. So that, we'll give you more on Kirkuk once we've finished off the negotiations and announce it.
Peter Lowe: Let's see when the teams can get to completion on that, but we feel very excited about that and it will be internationally competitive and we look forward to telling you more about that. Hopefully at Capital Markets Day we can update you more on that.
Peter Lowe: Thanks, Peter. We'll take the next question from Biraj Bokhattari at RBC, Biraj.
Speaker Change: Just thinking about your strategies, it looks like you're going to be including a more capital light approach and more JVs and things like that, like the Jira deal.
Speaker Change: As it relates to your cost reduction targets, are you able to say the sort of quantum of cost that will come off your balance sheet as part of the transactions that have already been agreed? Just so I can get a sense of the magnitude of that. Thank you.
Okay
Speaker Change: Hi Biraj, and thank you for the comment with regard to our cost disclosure. We have tried to help people by giving, I think, quite a lot more granularity and specificity than we have done previously.
Speaker Change: I'm pleased that that has worked for you so far, so let's see. With regards to the capital light approach on renewables, I think for capital let's leave that to capital markets. They will update you comprehensively with regard to capital right across the portfolio at that point.
and with regard to...
Speaker Change: Cash costs. So we have already been successful in reducing some of our cash costs through focusing our portfolio, which we talked about on previous
Speaker Change: quarterly results calls. It's part and parcel of the 750 million of structural reductions that we've delivered.
Speaker Change: Supply Chain or Focusing the Portfolio, so we will make sure we give you enough granularity on that going forward too.
Speaker Change: Thanks Biraj. Thank you. We'll take the next question from Doug Leggett at Wolf. Doug.
Doug Leggett: Good morning, everyone. Good afternoon over there. Thanks for taking my question.
Doug Leggett: I guess it's a question for Kate. Kate, I wonder if you could just help us with the continued commentary around the $40 breakeven, to help us benchmark.
Doug Leggett: 900 and something million dollar, 917 million dollar one-off cost, I think it was, this quarter.
Doug Leggett: and I'm trying to understand what that was, how that influences your view of where the run rate break-even is currently, and whether the financing charges below the operating line are included in that definition. So just help us benchmark the starting point ahead of the capital markets day. Thanks.
Doug Leggett: Yeah, thanks Doug. With regard to the balance point, we'll update the finframe in totality.
Doug Leggett: In two weeks' time, the $40 balance point is important to us internally as we think about our dividend. It's a key part of ensuring that it's a resilient through-cycle.
Doug Leggett: that we highlighted in the in the OPO segment there was 300 in there which was associated with hedging and income from the sale of royalties and about a hundred in the gas and low-carbon.
Doug Leggett: really trying to be transparent and helping you as we move towards the first quarter. I wanted to demonstrate there were a few things in our fourth quarter results that are unlikely to be repeated in the first quarter, but I'm happy that we sweep up after the call if you have a different number in your head.
Doug Leggett: Yeah, Doug, the financing costs are inside the balance point, including the hybrid and interest expense. That's all part of the balance point.
Speaker Change: Thank you. I said 917 re-measurement of joint venture step acquisition is what I'm referring to. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Yeah, I can tackle that one very quickly. So the transactions that we had with regard to the acquisition of BP Bioenergy and Light Source BP were both step transitions, both step transactions as we already own significant
Speaker Change: The 917 were both arising with regard to Light Source BP. It's just a re-measurement of the existing equity we held in Light Source BP and a re-measurement of the assets that we hold for sale in regard to Light Source BP.
So it's a technical accounting non-cash.
Thanks, Kate.
Awesome. All right. Thanks so much. Appreciate it.
Speaker Change: Thanks Doug. We'll take the next question from Alzheimer's City, Al.
Speaker Change: She's not the frontrunner on the strategy update, but you've put the words fundamental reset out there in today's press release. So can I ask what's going on in the last few months in the environment?
Speaker Change: and in your discussions with the board to change the emphasis from the prior wording that you used, which I think was mid-strategy update.
Speaker Change: Yep, thanks so much for your voice. All I'd say is if you look back at the degree of activity we've had.
over the past 12 months is pretty significant.
Speaker Change: We have sanctioned 10 new projects, top 30 projects across the business.
We've accessed new countries. We've completely decapitalized renewables.
Speaker Change: So it's a sizable shift in the portfolio that we have moving forward.
Speaker Change: And given the degree of that change, it's now time to reset the strategy and plot a new beginning for us. So it's just, we've done an awful lot over the past 12 months.
Speaker Change: and this is the right time now to share that with you, the community, and I'm excited to be sharing it with you in a couple weeks' time. It's going to be great.
Speaker Change: So it's not the externalities of the microenvironment, Murray? No, no.
Speaker Change: Thanks Al. We'll take the next question from Irene Hermona at Bernstein. Irene.
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Irene Hermona: Thank you, good afternoon. I had a question on your transition engine EBITDA. I presume this is the last time we will get.
Speaker Change: EBITDA given you're retiring the metric, but I wanted to focus on bioenergy. It seems adjusted to the same definition.
Speaker Change: We know that biofuels margins were particularly weak. I mean liquid biofuels. Thank you. Yep. Great Irene. Thanks Markaya continues to improve. Yes
Speaker Change: Last year we got 9 out of the 15 plants online we wanted to.
Speaker Change: Three more are now online and functioning. We have three still flowing too.
Speaker Change: midstream but not yet able to declare startup. So we've established
Speaker Change: 12 new plants this year, which obviously throw through earnings from 24 into 25.
Speaker Change: So certainly we're seeing improvement in our care as we move forward.
Speaker Change: As you rightly point out, biofuels are rightfully challenging, especially in Europe it's quite challenging. So we don't see a lot of performance momentum inside biofuels in Europe.
Speaker Change: That's why we're being very, very careful with sanctioning any new plants.
You may have seen a recycling in Australia as well.
Speaker Change: But we're pleased with progress on Archaea. We're not quite where we want to be. We're probably 12 months behind progress on Archaea.
Speaker Change: because we had to take our time to make the designs work, we had to take our time to get the permitting right.
We had to take our time to get the hookups.
Speaker Change: to the midstream providers, right? So we've had to take a bit more time than we originally wanted to.
and that's on us.
Speaker Change: But with 13 plants up now, I think the closest competition is 2 or 3 a year right now, so we feel like we're in a good competitive position. Prices and demand remain very strong for it as well.
Speaker Change: and we'll look forward to continuing growth out of Archaea moving forward. And Carol will give you an update on that in a couple weeks' time, Irene. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Thanks Irene. We're going to take the next question from Lydia Rainforth at Barclays. Lydia.
Do we have you Lydia?
Okay. Yeah. Thank you. Sorry. Go ahead. Yeah.
for you.
Yeah, thanks Lydia.
Speaker Change: So, as we've said in the disclosures, quite a lot of this variable cost, actually a huge part of it, relates to our trading business. And as you would imagine, it's a very, very margin-focused business, so the analysis of that is just part of the way they work. We pay very close attention to the gross margin that we're generating on trading. If I look at what's gone on in the last few years, so there's been about a 45% increase in shipping costs in trading, as freight rates are up.
Speaker Change: And then the other component part, which you'll be familiar with, is the scale of increase in our LNG portfolio. That's grown by over 50%.
Speaker Change: That's what's driving our costs, based inside that part of the base, in terms of variable costs though.
Speaker Change: I think it's really important to understand that these are directly related to the delivery of margin, and whilst we need to make sure that they are being efficiently managed, which we do, it would be crazy to put a target on those in terms of a reduction. I don't want to turn around to Carol and say, please could you reduce your shipping costs, that wouldn't be a great...
Speaker Change: decision point in terms of driving value and returns as far as we're concerned. So that's how we think about it and that's why we've provided the level of granularity that we have and we will continue to provide with regard to our cost base.
In a couple weeks' time, Carol will be talking about...
Talking about the trading business again, Lydia Schill-Unpack.
Speaker Change: of shipping oil, of shipping diesel, bunkering, and the LMG expansion. So, more details to come in a couple weeks' time, and Carol will be happy to answer more detailed questions on that then.
Speaker Change: Thanks, Lydia. We'll take the next question from Lucas Herman at Exxon BNP Exxon. Lucas, sorry.
Lucas Herman: Thanks very much, Craig. Hopefully you can hear me, and Murray, I hope the op went well and that you're well. Very brief one. LNG and volumes this year, how much of an increment do you expect to receive from beach, from tour, to potentially attaining volumes from venture? Can you just give us an idea of...
Speaker Change: Thank you for the kind wishes. I'm feeling great, Lucas. It's nice to be back in the office. Tortue and Beach are about 3 million tonnes per annum added, assuming a full year of flow.
Speaker Change: Venture I'm just gonna not comment as the arbitration continues let's let's see how that arbitration goes hopefully we see a ruling in the back half of the year on that and then we start to see flow but I think between Tortuga and Beach we've got three MTPA that will come through
I'll leave you with that.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Thanks Lucas. Moving on to Matt Lofting at JP Morgan. Matt.
Speaker Change: the BPs divested about $20 billion of assets over the course of that period. And then second, I just wanted to ask you about Russia and sort of Rosneft, given...
Thank you.
Speaker Change: shares in the future onto the balance sheet. I just wondered how you sort of see that today. Thank you.
done in the underlying cost base going forward.
Speaker Change: Lots of ins and outs in there as well. And then on Russia, look, our principal focus right now is on
Speaker Change: divesting the stake. There are more than a dozen countries that have sanctions on the entity, so we think the best focus that we can possibly have is on continuing to divest this, and we'll update the market as we go along on that. Thanks for the question.
Speaker Change: Thanks Matt. We're going to just move to a quick question from Ahmed Ben Salem from Oddo who's online. Ahmed's question is...
Speaker Change: How do you see the impact of US tariffs on Canadian crude on Whiting's refining margins?
Yep, thanks Ahmed. Pretty difficult to predict is my answer.
Speaker Change: We have the ability to flow volumes south to north in the United States if we need to. Obviously, the Canadian producers have optionality to flow some product to the West Coast and overseas as well.
Upon announcement of the tariff, the WTIWCS spread opened up.
Speaker Change: quite a bit, probably absorbing half of that tariff. So I think it's a very, very dynamic scenario.
Speaker Change: and it's very difficult to predict what will happen to margins on the northern tier.
Speaker Change: And so we'll just have to watch and see how the market turns out on this one. I don't think it's straightforward because there are so many different flows that get impacted with Mexican flows, with southern U.S. to northern U.S. flows, with Canadian flows.
So I'm, I...
Speaker Change: I have studied it heavily with the teams, and I'm afraid I find it very, very difficult to predict what will happen. But we will update you in due course as we learn about it. Thanks for the question.
Speaker Change: Thanks Ahmed. We're going to turn to Chris Coupland at Bank of America. Chris.
Speaker Change: carrying value. So just wanted to understand how attractive you think that is, issuing, continuing to issue hybrid bonds to lower your net debt. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Great. Why don't we just, we're going to go back to focusing on one question. So, Kate, why don't you tackle the hybrid question, and Chris, we can follow up with you offline on the other question.
Kate: Yeah, so you'll have heard me say in previous calls, Chris, I do think they're an important part of our capital structure. We're not seeking to build towers here. Just to be super clear, what we did in the fourth quarter, which others also did, by the way, is take advantage of a really strong environment.
Kate: the senior sub-spreads were at an all-time low and so we were able to issue hybrids in advance of our coming maturities in this year and in next year.
Kate: and it's really just a value play right, the hybrid market can fluctuate, we wanted to make sure that when it was in a particularly strong
Kate: moment that we took absolute best advantage of that. That's all that's going on with hybrids.
Kate: I remind you that about half of our hybrids are fixed cost and also that the payments with regard to it are fully tax deductible.
Speaker Change: Yeah, I mean, they're not the cheapest, but it's an important part of our capital structure. And we will continue to look very carefully and select maturities as and when the value feels right for us.
Speaker Change: Thanks Kate, thank you Chris. We're going to turn to Roger Reid in the US at Wells Fargo. Roger.
Speaker Change: Great, hey Roger, nice to hear your voice. We continue to admire what BPX is doing.
Speaker Change: They continue to do perform very well. We've got our third...
Speaker Change: Our third central gathering facility up online and full now in the Permian and we're looking forward to getting the last one up.
Speaker Change: around middle of this year. I think the most interesting bit we're seeing right now are these refracts.
inside the Eagleford.
Speaker Change: So there's something about a recharging reservoir going on there that we didn't really predict in shale. And that's a very interesting opportunity as the returns are triple digit plus on that space.
Speaker Change: On the gas side, we're contemplating increasing rigs right now. Gas pricing is very, very solid as we look at the second half of 2025 and into early 2026.
Speaker Change: and so Gordon and Kate and I are debating should we be doing that, what head strategy would we have around it and how many rigs should we grow. But with the prices that we're seeing now on the forward markets
Speaker Change: the returns inside the gas now beat the returns inside the oil basins. So that'll be something that we're thinking about and we'll look forward to more questions in that space in a couple weeks time where you can ask Gordon about that stuff as well. Thanks, Roger.
Speaker Change: Thanks. Thank you Roger. We'll turn to Alejandro Vigil at Santander next please. Alejandro.
Alejandro Vigil: Yes, thank you for taking my question. My question is basically about the slide number 16 of the presentation where you are talking about building momentum into 25. And you saw this chart with a significant increase in
Alejandro Vigil: in year-on-year in MEDA, which are the moving parts of this increase? I mind there are some consolidation portfolio, etc.
Alejandro Vigil: And I'm making this question also in the context of looking at consensus number of $37 billion for this year. It looks like there is a big gap between consensus and this slide number 16. You can elaborate on this, please.
Yeah, thank you, Alejandro.
Alejandro Vigil: If you adjust our 2024 EBITDA back for 2023 prices and
Alejandro Vigil: and then if you use rules of thumb and you adjust for the fact that whiting will be back up and operating well this year.
Alejandro Vigil: If you adjust for portfolio and you adjust for typical underlying growth that we expect to deliver year on year, you get to a number that's just under our target of 46 to 49, which is what we've said today. And to be clear,
Alejandro Vigil: We've said for a while now that our focus is very much shifting to cash. In two weeks time we'll update you fully in terms of targets, metrics and financial frame and that will help put the retiring of this target into context for you.
Alejandro Vigil: I think on 24 versus 25, obviously we've got the absence of the whiting outage.
Alejandro Vigil: uh depending on the margin that's worth quite a bit of money and then we have the three to four percent underlying growth that i've been talking about uh quarter in and quarter out that we see year on year across the business for 24 versus 25 that comes broadly
Alejandro Vigil: across cost, so continued cost improvement based on the great start we've done this year, along with improvements in things like Castrol, TA doing better, European convenience doing better, Australian convenience doing better.
Alejandro Vigil: and continue to improve performance inside the upstream, along with, as I said in the refining coverage, less complicated tars. So it's a lot of small things that add up to that 3-4% improvement and underlying, plus the recovery from the whiting outage in 2024.
Speaker Change: Okay, thanks Alejandro. We will turn to Michele Della Vigna, please, at Goldman Sachs. Michele.
Speaker Change: Thank you and very much looking forward to the CMD. Just one modeling question from my side. We've seen two items before below EBIT which were larger than expected, then at interest cost and the minorities. I was just wondering if you could perhaps guide us on whether we should assume this is a new ongoing run rate or if there was any one-off impact in the quarter. Thank you.
Speaker Change: In terms of net interest, that was up quarter on quarter really just because our gross debt had grown.
Speaker Change: we took advantage this year in terms of markets and issued a fair amount of debt without actually buying back any more of our maturities. That's something that we'll continue to address as we have done previously based on value and in terms of the cash. It's a very minimal cost of carry right now given the forward curves as well so that's all that's going on in that interest.
...and for the minorities
Speaker Change: So there's a movement in that really just related to the change in hybrids in the fourth quarter.
Speaker Change: You would probably expect both to reverse over time as you decrease your hybrids again and as you pay off your debt.
Speaker Change: Thanks Kate. Thank you Michele. We'll turn to Paul Cheng in the US. It's Scotia. Paul.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Good morning or good afternoon, your time. Kay, can I go back into the 2025 EBITDA? You're saying that just for the pricing, it would be slightly below the...
Speaker Change: low end of the range. So, comparing to the midpoint, that's probably, say, call you $2 billion less. Can you tell us that comparing to the initial expectation, which area that are seeing the miss and what's causing those? Thank you.
Speaker Change: Yeah, thank you. So I think the two areas I would highlight, we've talked before about bio margins in Europe being suppressed
Speaker Change: due to two reasons. One, the Nordic countries rowing back their voluntary mandates to the EU mandated levels and also a level of oversupply from Asia.
Speaker Change: The other area I would call out is Travel Centres of America, where it's been slightly slower than we expected in terms of recovery from the trucking recession. We see green shoots, it's starting to improve. I think we're probably a year further out in terms of seeing full recovery, that's more likely to come through in 2026 now.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Thank you, Paul. And it looks like just now the last question is from Giacomo Romeo Jeffries. Giacomo.
Giacomo Romeo: Yes, thank you. Just a quick one more on the modeling side.
Giacomo Romeo: Lease is obviously going up as you've guided and just trying to get a better sense of where we should expect lease payments to move to in going forward in Q4 that we're still relatively in line with the previous quarters just trying to understand whether that should go up and by to what extent into next year.
Giacomo Romeo: Yeah, I'll take that. The leases were pretty flat quarter on quarter, but we did add to our lease liabilities in the fourth quarter with the completion of Bungo. They've got about 300,000 hectares of land leased.
Giacomo Romeo: so you will expect a small increase with regard to that and then there was an extension of a lease that trading use in the US but for commercial reasons I wouldn't go into that so 4Q versus 3Q pretty flat but you'll see a little bit of tick up with regard to the Bungay leases.
Giacomo Romeo: Super, thanks Kate. We're gonna let Biraj sneak in with the last question. Biraj, you've come back on, over to you please.
Speaker Change: Hi there, sorry. I assumed someone was going to ask this, but I was on the last one, I might as well. Given the news yesterday around your new shareholders, any comments you can make about any engagements you've had with Elliott? Thank you. Look, Baraj, it's market speculation right now, and we don't comment on market speculation. Thanks for the question.
Okay, thank you.
Speaker Change: Thanks for the question Baraj. Okay I am going to, there's no more questions online so we are going to close the call on that note so that's the last question. We'll close the call on behalf of Murray, Kate, myself and also members of the leadership team who'll join us.
Speaker Change: on February the 26th. We look forward to seeing many of you in London and of course those of you who will be joining the event by webcast. So look forward to seeing you in a couple of weeks and thank you for listening in to today's call.