Q4 2024 Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc Earnings Call
Ezra: Good morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Thermo Fisher Scientific 2024 fourth quarter conference call. My name is Ezra and I will be your coordinator today. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. I would like to introduce our moderator for the call, Mr. Rafael Tejada, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Tejada, you may begin the call.
Speaker Change: Good morning and thank you for joining us. On the call with me today is Marc Casper, our Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, and Stephen Williamson, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
Speaker Change: Please note this call is being webcast live and will be archived on the investor section of our website, thermofisher.com, under the heading, News, Events, and Presentations.
Speaker Change: until February 13th, 2025. A copy of the press release of our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings is available in the investor section of our website under the heading financials.
Speaker Change: So, before we begin, let me briefly cover our Safe Harbor Statement.
Speaker Change: various remarks that we may make about the company's future expectations
for purposes of the Safe Harbor provisions.
under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Speaker Change: Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements.
Speaker Change: as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in the company's most recent annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, which are on file with the SEC and available in the investor section of our website under the heading Financials, SEC Filings.
Speaker Change: While we may elect to update forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our estimate change.
Speaker Change: Therefore, you should not rely on these forward-looking statements as representing our views as of any date subsequent to today.
Speaker Change: Also, during this call, we will be referring to certain financial measures not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP.
a reconciliation of these non-gap financial measures
to the most directly comparable gap measures.
Marc Casper: is available in the press release of our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings and also in the investor section of our website under the heading financials. So, with that, I'll now turn the call over to Marc.
Marc Casper: Thank you, Raf. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today for our fourth quarter call.
Marc Casper: As you saw in our press release, we delivered an excellent finish to 2024 with strong revenue and earnings growth. Our fourth quarter results continue to highlight the strength of our operational and commercial execution.
Marc Casper: As I reflect on our performance for the full year, I'm very proud of our team as they continue to enable the success of our customers.
Marc Casper: This resulted in meaningful market share gains and strengthening our trusted partner status with our customers.
We are incredibly well positioned for the future.
Marc Casper: I'll get into more detail later in my remarks, but first let me recap the financials.
starting with the quarter.
Marc Casper: Our revenue in Q4 grew 5% year-over-year to $11.4 billion. Our adjusted operating income grew 7% to $2.72 billion.
Marc Casper: We expanded our adjusted operating margins by 50 basis points to 23.9 percent, and we delivered strong adjusted EPS performance, growing adjusted EPS 8 percent to $6.10 per share in the quarter.
Marc Casper: Then in terms of our full-year results, our revenue was $42.9 billion in 2024.
Marc Casper: Adjusted operating income was 9.71 billion dollars and adjusted EPS was $21.86 per share.
Marc Casper: Turning to our performance by end market. In the fourth quarter, underlying market conditions played out as we expected and continued to improve. Our team's excellent execution resulted in revenue performance that was ahead of our expectations.
Marc Casper: and we deliver positive revenue growth across all of our end markets. Let me provide you with some additional context.
Marc Casper: For the full year, pharma and biotech declined in the low single digits, which included a mid-single-digit headwind from the runoff of vaccine and therapy-related revenue.
Marc Casper: In academic and government, we grew in the high single digits during the quarter and in the low single digits for the full year. In the quarter, we delivered strong growth in chromatography and mass spectrometry and in our research and safety market channel.
Marc Casper: In Industrial and Applied, we grew in the high single digits during the quarter and low single digits for the full year. Growth in the quarter was highlighted by strong performance in our electron microscopy business and in our research and safety market channel.
Marc Casper: Finally, in Diagnostics and Health Care, we grew in the low single digits during the quarter and declined low single digits for the full year. As a reminder, the reported growth in this end market was impacted by the runoff of COVID-19 testing related revenue.
Marc Casper: During the quarter and the full year, the team delivered good core revenue growth, highlighted by our transplant diagnostics, immunodiagnostics, and our healthcare market channel.
Marc Casper: Thanks to our proven growth strategy and our team's excellent execution, we delivered a strong finish across all of our end markets, continuing to drive meaningful share gain.
Marc Casper: As a reminder, our strategy consists of three pillars. High-impact innovation, our trusted partner status with customers, and our unparalleled commercial engine.
Marc Casper: As you know, our growth strategy really resonates with our customers and throughout the year we have continuously strengthened our company to be even more relevant for the future.
Marc Casper: Let me give you some highlights. Starting with the first pillar, we had another really terrific year of high-impact innovation.
Marc Casper: Throughout 2024, we launched outstanding products across our businesses that strengthen our industry leadership by enabling our customers to advance their important work.
Marc Casper: In Chromatography and Mass Spectrometry this year, it was highlighted by the launch of our Thermoscientific Stellar Mass Spectrometer, which complements our award-winning Thermoscientific Orbitrap Astral, launched in 2023, by validating biomarker candidates of interest to advance clinical research.
Marc Casper: It's been great to see the significant impact these two mass spectrometers are having on advancing science.
We also launched the Thermoscientific Dionyx Inuvion ion chromatography system.
Marc Casper: which streamlines environmental testing in industrial and applied settings, helping our customers identify contaminants more efficiently.
Marc Casper: In Electron Microscopy, we launched the thermoscientific ILLIAD scanning transmission electron microscope, which integrates a number of advanced analytical technologies into a seamless and user-friendly workflow to enable the development of advanced materials.
Marc Casper: In our biosciences business, we launched the Applied Biosystems MagMax Sequential DNA-RNA Kit, which maximizes the isolation of DNA and RNA from blood cancer samples.
helping researchers identify unique insights into cancer-causing genetic alterations.
Marc Casper: And in bioproduction, we launched the first-of-its-kind bio-based film for our single-use technologies. Developed with plant-based material rather than fossil fuel materials, this innovative film provides lower-carbon solutions for the production of biologics.
Marc Casper: We continued this great innovation momentum in the fourth quarter. In chromatography and mass spectrometry, we launched the thermoscientific ICAP-MX series ICP-MS.
Marc Casper: inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry platform designed to streamline trace elemental analysis for environmental, food, industrial, and research laboratories.
Marc Casper: And in Lifescience Solutions, we introduced new additions to the GIPCO-CTS Detachable Dynabeads platform to further enhance the development and manufacturing of life-changing cell therapies.
Marc Casper: So another year of innovation that was spectacular and we have an exciting pipeline for the future as well
Marc Casper: In 2024, we also continue to strengthen our industry-leading commercial engine and deepen our trusted partner status with customers to accelerate their innovation and enhance their productivity.
Marc Casper: Throughout the year, we expanded our capabilities to meet our customers' current and future needs. This included expanding our pharmaceutical services and clinical research capabilities in the U.S. and Europe.
Marc Casper: To be an even stronger partner for our pharma and biotech customers, in the fourth quarter, we introduced our accelerator drug development solution.
Marc Casper: This truly unique offering leverages our combined CDMO and CRO capabilities to enable our customers to move their critical drug development programs forward with speed, quality, and efficiency.
helping to improve their return on their R&D investments.
Marc Casper: This is a huge value add for our customers and not something they can do alone or with our competitors.
Customer feedback has been incredibly positive.
Marc Casper: We're winning new business, and we're excited about the future impact of our accelerated drug development capabilities.
Marc Casper: We also made significant advancements in partnerships and collaborations with our customers throughout the year. This included our partnership with the National Cancer Institute on the MiloMatch Precision Medicine Umbrella Trial, which we announced in July.
and then the FDA approval.
Marc Casper: for our Ion Torrent Oncomite DX target test. That's another example of our customer partnerships.
Marc Casper: This is a next-generation sequencing-based assay to be used as a companion diagnostic for Surveyor's first treatment for patients living with glioma, a type of brain cancer.
Marc Casper: Finally, during the fourth quarter, we entered into a partnership with the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences to establish the Thermo Fisher Scientific Center of Excellence for Proteomics there.
Marc Casper: These partnerships demonstrate how closely we are working with our customers to enable their success and drive meaningful impact for patients. So as you can see, it was another excellent year of advancing our growth strategy.
Marc Casper: As always, our PPI business system continues to enable outstanding execution throughout the year. PPI engages and empowers all of our colleagues to find a better way every day. PPI is helping us to drive share gain and improve quality, productivity, and customer allegiance.
Marc Casper: We're also benefiting from the application of generative AI into our PPI business system.
Marc Casper: Our colleagues around the world are actively deploying Gen AI, finding new ways to improve the customer experience, streamline internal processes, and enhance our products and services.
Marc Casper: So, not only do PPI contribute to our excellent financial results, it's also helping our team to find new ways to enable our customer success, ensuring a very bright future for our company.
Marc Casper: Turn it to capital deployment. We continue to successfully execute our disciplined capital deployment strategy to create tremendous value. We do this through a combination of strategic M&A and substantial return of capital to our shareholders.
Marc Casper: In 2024, we return $4.6 billion of capital to our shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends, including repurchasing $1 billion of shares in the fourth quarter.
Marc Casper: In terms of M&A during the year, we completed our acquisition of O-Link, a leading provider of advanced solutions for proteomics research.
O-Link is now our proteomic science business.
Marc Casper: The integration is progressing smoothly, and just after quarter-end, our O-Link technology was selected by the UK Biobank Pharma Proteomics Project to support the world's largest human proteomics study of its kind, the latest validation of the value of our capabilities.
Marc Casper: When I think about our disciplined approach to M&A and our unparalleled track record, it's all about long-term value creation for our shareholders.
Marc Casper: We just celebrated the two-year anniversary of the acquisition of the binding site, now our protein diagnostics business.
Marc Casper: This business performed incredibly well again in 2024, delivering low-teens growth, launching new products, and driving a great return on investment. This is a recent example of the impact of our proven capital deployment strategy in action.
Marc Casper: Let me now give you a brief update on our Corporate Social Responsibility Initiatives.
Marc Casper: As a mission-driven company, we help to make the world a better place by enabling the important work of our customers.
Marc Casper: We also have a positive impact by supporting our communities and being a good steward of our planet, and I'm proud of the actions we took in 2024 in this regard.
Marc Casper: We made meaningful progress on our net-zero roadmap by reducing our emissions, increasing the number of our zero-waste certified sites, and launching new greener products and shipping solutions.
Marc Casper: We also formed new collaborations to improve health outcomes across the globe, and we were named one of the world's most innovative companies by Fast Company for our significant contributions in diagnostics that help to advance health equity.
Marc Casper: Additionally, we continue to advance our STEM education programs, reaching more than 180,000 students globally. This helps to ensure we have students engaged in the sciences, as ultimately, they'll become our future customers.
Marc Casper: As I reflect on the year, I'm very proud of what our team accomplished.
Marc Casper: We have more than 120,000 passionate colleagues who are dedicated to enabling our customer success and advancing science. Together, we continue to build a bright future for our company, and I'm very excited about the year ahead.
Marc Casper: So let me now turn to guidance. Stephen will outline the assumptions that factor into the guidance, but let me quickly cover the highlights.
Speaker Change: In 2025, we will once again deliver strong share gain, and our PPI business system will enable outstanding execution and we will deliver very strong earnings growth.
Speaker Change: We're initiating a 2025 revenue guidance in the range of $43.5 billion to $44 billion, which assumes 3-4% organic growth.
Speaker Change: and an adjusted EPS guidance range of $23.10 to $23.50 which represents 6-8% growth in adjusted earnings per share.
Speaker Change: We're in a great position as we enter 2025. I'm incredibly excited by the opportunities we have with our customers and to create value for all of our stakeholders and build an even brighter future for our company.
Speaker Change: So, to summarize our key takeaways for 2024, our proven growth strategy continues to drive significant share gain. We continue to elevate our trusted partner status and deepen the relationships with many customers.
Speaker Change: and this, in combination with the power of our PPI business system, enabled us to deliver an excellent finish to 2024 with differentiated performance for the quarter and the full year.
Speaker Change: As we enter 2025 with strong momentum, we are well positioned to deliver excellent financial performance and further strengthen our long-term competitive position.
Speaker Change: With that, I'll now hand the call over to our CFO, Stephen Williamson. Stephen? Thanks, Marc, and good morning, everyone. As you saw in that press release, we had an excellent Q4. The team executed really well in the quarter, and we delivered Q4 financials significantly ahead of what was assumed in the midpoint of our prior guide.
Speaker Change: We beat Q4 organic growth by just under 2 points, adjusted EPS by $0.14, and we ended the year with very strong free cash flow, delivering $7.3 billion for the year.
Speaker Change: Looking back on 24, we had a very successful year. The markets played out as we outlined at the beginning of the year, with growth steadily improving each quarter.
Speaker Change: Our proven growth strategy drove consistent share gain and the PPI business system enabled great execution. All of this enabled us to consistently deliver differentiated financial performance throughout the year, all while further strengthening our industry leadership. This puts us in a great position to deliver an excellent 2025.
Speaker Change: Let me now provide you with some additional details on our Q4 and full-year 2024 performance, starting with earnings per share. In the quarter, adjusted EPS grew 8% to $6.10. For the full year, we delivered adjusted EPS of $21.86.
Speaker Change: Gap EPS in the quarter was $4.78 and for the full year it was $16.53.
Speaker Change: On the top line, Q4 reported revenue grew 5% year-over-year. The components of our reported revenue change included 4% organic growth, a 1% contribution from acquisitions, and a slight headwind from foreign exchange.
In Q4, Core Organic Revenue increased 5%.
Speaker Change: For the full year 2024, reported organic and core organic revenue were all flat year over year.
Speaker Change: In 2024, we delivered $520 million of pandemic-related revenue comprised of approximately $100 million of testing and $420 million from vaccines and therapies.
Speaker Change: Turning to our organic revenue performance by geography, in Q4, North America grew mid-single digits, Europe grew low-single digits, and Asia-Pacific grew high-single digits, with China growing mid-single digits.
Speaker Change: With respect to our operational performance we've delivered 2.72 billion dollars of adjusted operating income in the quarter, an increase of 7% year-over-year, and adjusted operating margin was 23.9%, 50 basis points higher than Q4 last year.
Speaker Change: In the quarter we delivered strong productivity reflecting the continued execution of our cost management initiatives and we drove good volume pull through. This enabled us to fund strategic investments to further advance our industry leadership and offset the expected impact of unfavorable mix this quarter.
Speaker Change: For the full year, we delivered $9.71 billion of adjusted operating income and adjusted operating margin with 22.6%.
Speaker Change: Moving on to the details of the P&L, adjusted SG&A in the quarter was 16.1% of revenue. For the full year, adjusted SG&A was 16.3% of revenue.
Speaker Change: Total R&D expense was $374 million in Q4. For the full year, R&D expense was $1.39 billion, up 4% year-over-year, reflecting our ongoing investments in high-impact innovation.
Speaker Change: R&D as a percent of our manufacturing revenue for the full year was 7.2 percent.
Speaker Change: Looking at results below the line, our Q4 net interest expense was $89 million, slightly higher than Q4 2023.
Speaker Change: Net interest expense for the full year was $312 million, a decrease of $183 million year-over-year, driven by effective management of our debt portfolio and our strong cash flow.
Speaker Change: The adjusted tax rate was 10.9% in Q4 and 10.5% for the full year, in line with our expectations.
Speaker Change: Average diluted shares were $383 million in Q4, $5 million lower year-over-year driven by share repurchases net of option dilution.
Speaker Change: In Q4, we repurchased $1 billion of shares, bringing our total repurchases for 2024 to $4 billion.
Speaker Change: Turning to free cash flow and the balance sheet, full-year cash flow from operations was $8.7 billion and free cash flow was $7.3 billion after investing $1.3 billion of net capital expenditures.
Speaker Change: During 2024 we deployed $7.7 billion of capital, $3.1 billion through M&A with the acquisition of Olink, and $4.6 billion through the return of capital to shareholders in the form of $4 billion of buybacks and approximately $600 million of dividends.
Speaker Change: We ended the quarter with $5.6 billion in cash and short-term investments and $31.3 billion of total debt. A leverage ratio at the end of the quarter was 2.9 times gross debt to adjusted EBITDA and 2.4 times on a net debt basis.
Speaker Change: In concluding my comments on our total company performance, adjusted ROIC was 11.6% reflecting the strong returns on investment that were generating across the company.
Speaker Change: Now I'll provide some color on the performance of our four business segments, starting with Life Sciences Solutions.
Speaker Change: Q4 reported revenue in this segment grew 5% and organic revenue growth was 3%.
Speaker Change: Growth in this segment was driven by a bioproduction and biosciences businesses.
Speaker Change: For the full year reported revenue decline 3% and organic revenue was 4% lower versus 2023.
Speaker Change: Q4 Adjusted Operating Income for Life Science Solutions increased 6% and Adjusted Operating Margin was 36.6%, up 40 basis points versus the prior year quarter.
Speaker Change: During Q4, we delivered strong productivity and good volume pull-through, which was partially upset by unfavorable mix and strategic investments.
Speaker Change: For the full year, Adjusted Operating Income increased 2% and Adjusted Operating Margin was 36.4%, an increase of 210 basis points versus 2023.
Speaker Change: In the analytical instrument segment, reported revenue grew 7% and organic revenue growth was 8%.
Speaker Change: The strong growth in the quarter was led by electron microscopy and chromatography and mass spectrometry businesses.
Speaker Change: For the full year, both reported revenue and organic revenue grew 3%.
Speaker Change: In this segment, Q4 Adjusted Operating Income increased 13% and Adjusted Operating Margin was 30.5%, up 170 basis points year over year.
Speaker Change: In the quarter we delivered strong productivity and good volume pull-through and had favorable FX. This was partially upset by unfavorable mix and strategic investments.
Speaker Change: For the full year, Adjusted Operating Income increased 2% and Adjusted Operating Margin was 26.2%, 10 basis points lower than 2023.
Speaker Change: Center Specialty Diagnostics in Q4 both reported revenue and organic revenue grew 5%.
Speaker Change: In Q4, growth in this segment was led by our transplant diagnostics and immunodiagnostics businesses, as well as our healthcare market channel.
Speaker Change: For the full year, reported revenue increased 2% and organic revenue growth was 3%.
Speaker Change: Q4 Adjusted Operating Income for Specialty Diagnostics increased 3% and Adjusted Operating Margin was 23.6%, 30 basis points lower than Q4 2023. During the quarter, we delivered good productivity, which is more than offset by strategic investments.
Speaker Change: For the fall year, Adjusted Operating Income was 3% higher than 2023 and Adjusted Operating Margin was 25.7% and increased to 20 basis points versus the prior year.
Speaker Change: And finally, in the barotrade products and biopharma services segment, both reported revenue and organic revenue grew 4% versus the prior year quarter.
Speaker Change: The runoff of vaccines and therapies revenue had a mid-single-digit impact on the growth in this segment in Q4.
Speaker Change: This was offset by very good growth in our pharma services business and research and safety market channel.
Speaker Change: For the full year, reported revenue grew 1%, and organic revenue was flat. In this segment, Q4 adjusted operating income increased 3%, and adjusted operating margin was 14%, which is flat to Q4 2023.
Speaker Change: In the quarter we delivered strong productivity, which is offset by strategic investments and unfavorable mix.
Speaker Change: For the full year, Adjusted Operating Income declined 8% and Adjusted Operating Margin was 13.3%, which is 130 basis points lower versus 2023.
Marc Casper: Turning now to guidance, as Marc outlined, we're initiating a 2025 revenue guidance range of $43.5 to $44 billion and an adjusted EPS guidance range of $23.10 to $23.50.
Marc Casper: This guidance assumes 3-4% organic revenue growth, a 1% headwind from the remaining runoff of the pandemic-related revenue, and a 1.5% revenue headwind from foreign exchange.
and approximately 90 basis points of Adjusted Operating Margin Expansion.
Marc Casper: All of this will enable a really strong 6% to 8% growth in adjusted EPS.
Marc Casper: The strength of the guidance reflects our industry-leading position, our proven growth strategy, and the power of our PPI business system.
Marc Casper: Let me now provide some more detailed context behind the guide, starting with the market growth framing. In 2024, we estimate the industry market growth was down low single digits.
Marc Casper: In 2025, we expect market growth will be better than 2024. We expect market growth will be slightly positive for the year, improving as the year progresses.
Marc Casper: With this market context and a very strong share gain, we expect organic growth for 2025 to be in the range of 3-4%.
Marc Casper: Now as I commented earlier, this includes a 1% headwind from the remainder of the pandemic runoff, largely in our clinical research business. So the underlying total company growth is strong.
Marc Casper: Turning to FX, given recent changes in rates, we're assuming there'll be a headwind from revenue from FX in 2025 of approximately $650 billion, or one and a half points.
Marc Casper: Putting all this together, our top line guidance assumes a 1.5% to 2.5% increase in reported revenue dollars and a 3% to 4% increase in organic revenue. This is a strong step up from 2024.
Marc Casper: Moving on to the bottom line, we expect to deliver a very strong year of adjusted EPS growth in 2025.
Marc Casper: The cost actions we took over the past couple of years are enabling very accretive pull-through on the incremental dollars of revenue growth. And we will continue to use the PPI business system to drive productivity and actively manage our cost base.
Marc Casper: This will enable very strong adjusted operating margin expansion of approximately 90 basis points.
Marc Casper: Below the line we're effectively managing our debt and cash positions and taking advantage of great interest rates on cash deposits and all of this will enable us to deliver adjusted EPS in the range of $23.10 and $23.50.
Marc Casper: which is a very strong 6% to 8% growth for the year.
Marc Casper: In terms of potential changes in the macro environment, our guidance is assumed to cover the impact of modest policy changes.
Marc Casper: And then to help you with your modeling, here are a few additional assumptions behind the guide. We expect approximately $350 million of net interest expense in 2025. We assume that the adjusted income tax rate will be 11.5% in 2025, largely driven by the increased earnings.
Marc Casper: We're expecting between $1.4 and $1.7 billion of net capital expenditures in 2025, and we're assuming free cash flow is in the range of $7 billion to $7.4 billion for the year.
Marc Casper: In terms of capital deployment, we're assuming $2 billion of share buybacks, which were already completed in January.
Marc Casper: And we estimate the full-year average diluted share count will be between 378 and 379 million shares.
Marc Casper: And we're seeing a return of approximately $600 million of capital to shareholders this year through dividends.
And finally, I wanted to touch on phasing for Q1.
Marc Casper: Embedded in the guidance for the year is an assumption that organic growth is flat in Q1, as is adjusted EPS growth in Q1. This is largely driven by Q1 having two less selling days than the prior year quarter and also the phasing of our services revenue within the year.
So in conclusion, Q4 capped off a very successful 2024.
Marc Casper: We expect to continue to manage the company and the opportunities really well in 2025 and a focus on delivering very strong share gains than just a DPS growth, enabling excellent financial performance. I look forward to updating you on our progress as we go through the year. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Raf.
Operator, we're ready for the Q&A portion of the call.
Thank you very much.
Marc Casper: We will now open the floor for the Q&A session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. Please ensure your device is unmuted locally.
Marc Casper: If you change your mind or your question has already been answered, please press star followed by two.
Marc Casper: in order to allow everyone in the queue an opportunity to address
Speaker Change: Our first question comes from Michael Rysken with Bank of America. Michael, your line is now open, please go ahead.
Great, thanks for taking the question.
Michael Rysken: I want to start with something that you flagged briefly there in your closing remarks, Stephen. I think you mentioned modest policy changes built into the guide. I'm wondering if you could expand on that and just broadly talk about guidance methodology going into 2025.
It feels like there's a lot more uncertainty.
Speaker Change: even despite where we're coming from the last couple of years, specifically as it relates to policy and government changes, you know, things like tariffs, NIH, you know, export controls announced a couple weeks ago on some specific product lines.
Speaker Change: It's still really tough, you know, and too early to say how these will play out. So, I'm just wondering if you, how much conservatism you build into the guide, what are your assumptions on some of these factors, any additional color you could provide there would be helpful.
Speaker Change: Mike, thanks for the question. Maybe I'll start with a summary actually of
Speaker Change: kind of the key points. And then I'll talk a little bit about the, you know, what's going on from the policy perspective, what we embedded in the guide. So bear with me a little bit. So when I think about 2024, you know, I think the key points are the team executed very well, right?
Speaker Change: and the performance was quite differentiated financially and really great momentum with our customers. Ultimately, the trusted partner status continues to strengthen and positions the company for a bright future.
Speaker Change: Fourth quarter was strong, right? 4% organic growth, 8% growth in EPS, just EPS.
Speaker Change: Market conditions, you know, they improve sequentially throughout the year as we expected. We saw positive growth with our expectation for the market in the fourth quarter and which is what we thought at the beginning of last year. So the predictability is back in our industry which is great.
Speaker Change: When I think about 2025, what we're assuming in the guidance is that the market conditions will continue to strengthen as the year progresses.
Speaker Change: And we're entering the year with good momentum, right? So our focus, especially given that there's always some level of uncertainty or volatility, is to really deliver, you know, outstanding EPS growth this year, right? And...
Speaker Change: What we, you know, embedded in our guidance is six to eight percent adjusted EPS growth and our best view of the market returning positive organically in terms of total and us delivering three to four percent. So that's how we thought about it and
Speaker Change: We're actively managing the business. So we're very excited about what's the year ahead. Now, when I think about
Policy Changes, What's Embedded?
I think you know deeply our philosophy. Within reason...
Speaker Change: of changes or within reasons of opportunities, we just manage through it. It becomes, it's our job to manage through.
you know, the unanticipated changes.
Speaker Change: unless they're of such magnitude, on the good side or the bad, that we would articulate it, right? So, you know, we thought about...
Speaker Change: where today there's a lot of ideas being discussed but not really yet materialized into any particular policies.
Speaker Change: What I'm very excited about is the business environment, particularly in the US, is going to be much more business friendly, with much more of a focus on economic growth.
Speaker Change: I'm excited that from an M&A perspective, we're likely to see a much more reasonable environment from a regulatory perspective. And when I think about
Speaker Change: what our company does and what our customers do. Science and medicine are unbelievably important and they're not discretionary and therefore we're excited about it and we'll navigate whatever the environment holds.
Speaker Change: Okay, that's helpful, Marc. Thank you. And then for a quick follow-up, in terms of the EPS guide, you're right, better earnings power than we had anticipated, I think most had anticipated.
Speaker Change: Stephen, I think you said 90 basis points operating margin expansion. That's very strong, especially given the subdued top line environment.
Speaker Change: If you could expand on that, I mean, you mentioned some of the cost actions you've taken in the past, but are there incremental cost actions throughout 25, sort of what's the contribution from return to volume growth or maybe mixed shift, just any color on that 90 basis points?
Thanks.
Speaker Change: Yes, so Mike, yeah, that's the right number and yeah, so really good volume pull-throughs when I think about the cost actions we've taken over the past couple of years as we've kind of wound down from the impact of the pandemic and
Speaker Change: than normal, they're coming back to more normal volumes and we're making sure that the incremental revenue is pulling through at a really high clip. So great to see that, not embedded in the numbers. And then, it's not just kind of,
Speaker Change: huge cost initiatives about just managing our P&L appropriately and using the PPI business system to be able to do that. So driving very strong productivity and good cost management in the top-line environment that we're in for the year. So all those bring that all together. That's what's driving the 90 basis points.
[inaudible]
Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from Rachel Bottinsdall with JP Morgan. Rachel, your line is now open, please go ahead.
Rachel Bottinsdall: Perfect. Good morning and thank you so much for taking the questions.
Speaker Change: from the webinar. Thanks a ton. Thanks mar embarrassed to say that. But anyway, thanks for commenting. This was great, fantastic, can't wait to get started, continue to do more things like this. I'm definitely going to have more lessons for sure. But anyway, thank you all for joining us and once again, heart eye for you guys and stay
Rachel Bottinsdall: Yes, so Rachel, it's been nine days, so, you know, in terms of
Rachel Bottinsdall: the environment. So I don't think there's any real insight into...
Rachel Bottinsdall: the what's going on. Obviously, there's actually no policies yet right there.
the different things being explored.
Rachel Bottinsdall: And, you know, our job is to, you know, work collaboratively with the administration. We have, you know, a good working relationship, certainly, with the president's first administration and educate on the importance of...
Rachel Bottinsdall: our industry and our customers work and help our customers navigate the environment as well. So from my perspective, you know, I look at, we'll help our customers, you know, navigate whatever it is. When I think about what's embedded in our guidance,
Rachel Bottinsdall: You know, I would say, you know, for academic and government.
Rachel Bottinsdall: globally, you know, would be, you know, around the company average in terms of what's
you know, what's assumed there, and...
Rachel Bottinsdall: may be slightly below that because I think pharma and biotech ultimately be a little bit better than the company average this year in terms of the end markets and you know when you think about that.
Rachel Bottinsdall: about half of our academic and government and market is in the U.S. and half is...
Rachel Bottinsdall: in markets around the world. Interestingly enough, we obviously had an incredibly strong finish in academic and government in the fourth quarter, and it was globally strong, right? It was really every market had really, you know, a very strong end to the year. So hopefully that's helpful.
Yeah, that is. Thanks for framing that up.
Speaker Change: To follow up then, I just wanted to ask on analytical instrumentation. Obviously, that was a really nice quarter in 4Q. So, can you walk us through some of the drivers of that beat? Did you guys see any budget flush trends in the quarter? And was there any benefit from China Stimulus in that number? And then when you look at analytical instrumentation performance for 2025, what are your assumptions regarding China Stimulus contribution? Thank you.
Yeah.
Marc Casper: So Rachel, thanks. You know, our instrument business once again had a really very positive year.
Marc Casper: capped off with 8% organic growth in the fourth quarter, 3% growth for the full year.
Marc Casper: And that's an environment where China was relatively muted for the full year. And as you know, China is a meaningful contributor to the instruments business across the industry. So team really doing a great job. So what drives that?
Marc Casper: You know, it's the steady drumbeat of innovation that makes a huge difference. And if you think about, even in my remarks, I had to really narrow it down, like in terms of the number of products we launched.
Marc Casper: you see one instrument after another, you see many other reagents and other products, but we are just, you know, on a roll in terms of phenomenal new products, right, whether it's in electron microscopy, you know, whether it's in chromatography and mass spectrometry.
Marc Casper: And also in the environmental type applications, you know, with, you know, ion chromatography with, you know, ICP-MS just really strong and the adoption is great and
Marc Casper: That's driving, you know, meaningful share gain. And, you know, the way that our business works is you have relevant innovation customers because of the importance of the work they're doing.
they find the funding and that's how it showed up.
It's actually nice to see revenue.
Marc Casper: It wasn't huge, but it was nice to see revenue flow in the instruments business in the fourth quarter. Orders were actually stronger in terms of the orders that we received in China on our instruments and that will obviously ship in 2025. So stimulus started to flow there as well. So hopefully that gives you a good sense of the momentum in our instruments business.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from Jack Meehan with Nephron Research. Jack, your line is now open, please go ahead.
Thank you and good morning.
So Stephen, you talked about the phasing of...
Speaker Change: Good morning. I forget if it was Stephen or Marc. You talked about the phasing of services revenue during the year, so I'll bite. What does the guide assume for PPD, clinical research, and can you give us an update, just color on what you're seeing in terms of new authorizations?
Yeah, so I'll give the kind of the...
Marc Casper: the phasing aspect to it, and Marc will give you some more detail about the businesses, which are both in great shape, by the way. So when I think about phasing within the year, I said that in Q1 there's some timing in the phasing there. It's largely the pandemic-related runoff is more pronounced in Q1, given the comps from last year. So that's the largest piece of the phasing. There's a little bit of phasing.
Speaker Change: Court of Decorder, in terms of the overall phasing for our promise services business that's kind of an normal noise, but that's probably the best of the largest driver they talked about in Q1.
Yes, so Jack when I think about the clinical research
capabilities that we have.
Speaker Change: We're a leader and incredible reputation for innovation and quality and performance for our customers. And when you think about that, one of the things that we've been talking a little bit about, and I try to highlight it more today, was the combination with our pharma services business. And as you know, in pharma services, we're a leading provider of contract development and manufacturing capabilities.
We spent over three years
looking at the
Speaker Change: added value having those both sets of capabilities, the insights you get.
Speaker Change: and the impact that you can have for the customers. And, you know, when we launched Accelerator Drug Development, it really is compelling.
Speaker Change: What's up that really is allowing our customers to do is to leverage our expertise and capabilities
Speaker Change: to improve the returns on investment of their R&D investments, which is everything in the pharmaceutical and biotech industry. So we're excited. When I think about now more of the details...
Speaker Change: and I think about clinical research, you know, we delivered low single digit organic growth last year, right? The team did a good job, really good job. And that was to basically grow the business despite the very meaningful headwind from the runoff of vaccines and therapies that was in that business.
Speaker Change: You know, the business is behaving the way that I would think it should, which it's a long cycle business, so
Speaker Change: you saw for the industry and even with us in low single-digit growth last year, that's below the trend line. The trend line for this business is a high single-digit growth business.
Speaker Change: It's the result of 2023's biotech environment and 2023 and 2024's pharmaceutical customers actually reprioritizing their portfolios.
Speaker Change: for the IRA. When I look at authorizations, particularly in the back half of 2024,
Speaker Change: they were very strong for us. And when I look at the commercial pipeline that we have this year and the conversations that our executive team is having with our customers,
Speaker Change: The business actually has a lot of momentum underlying and if I think about sort of the cycle time of the business
Speaker Change: that bodes well towards the end of the year and entering 2026. It feels like, you know, the conditions will be more measured this year. That's what's embedded in our guidance, kind of similar to what we saw last year. And then, you know, it sets up for great success.
you know, overall, you know, super positive.
Speaker Change: Awesome, and you're leading me exactly where I want to go next, which is...
Speaker Change: The Guide for 2026. Mostly joking, but can you just talk about, you know, as you look at the phasing of the Guide in 2025, what does the exit rate look like in the fourth quarter, and just more broadly, just like confidence about your ability to get back to the LRP targets that you have?
Yeah, Jack, I...
Speaker Change: I'll be thrilled to talk about 26 on this call in a year's time, but I understand that think about that and how you're
Speaker Change: We're thinking about the trajectory of the company. Yeah, first of all, we're highly confident we're going to get back to the industry long-term market growth rate of 4 to 6 percent. It's just a matter of what's the timing you actually get to that point.
Speaker Change: We've proven the ability to consistently drive share gain above that, so our organic growth will be stronger than markets.
Speaker Change: It's great that markets are improving. When I think about what the guide set up is here, going from market down a couple of points to being up slightly, that's a continued improvement.
on Market to Market Today.
Speaker Change: transition back to normal is to drive really strong adjusted EPS growth and that's exactly what we're setting out to do here for the year ahead.
Awesome. Thanks, Steve. Thanks, Jack.
Thank you for watching!
Our next question comes from Doug.
Shen Kuo
Doug, are you on mute?
Speaker Change: Good morning, guys. Sorry about that. Thanks for taking my questions.
Speaker Change: A couple questions on guidance. So the first is on the top line, and I'm just sitting here playing with the model, thinking through the stacks, thinking through the comps, thinking about what you talked about for the first quarter starting rate.
Speaker Change: That leads me to a question of are you expecting to exit 2025 back in your targeted seven to nine percent organic growth range? I can see where you're at least close to the low end of that. So that's my first question.
Speaker Change: My second is back to the topic of the 90 basis point of targeted Operating margin expansion that is embedded in your guidance
Speaker Change: This would be particularly impressive in, you know, any period. It's especially notable right now given your revenue growth rate for the year is below your long-term construct.
and there has been speculation that you wouldn't.
Speaker Change: be able to get anywhere close to that type of margin expansion with a lower level of growth. So obviously you expect to do that. So the questions are...
Speaker Change: 1. What's allowing you to do this in 2025? Is this a function of mix? Is it a function of basically the benefit of operating really tightly in a tough environment and starting to come out of it? Is it something else?
Speaker Change: And then I guess the other part of that is, you know, are there reasons we shouldn't assume a continuation of this type of margin potential as we think about future years, where you are getting back into your normalized growth construct? Thank you.
Context.
Speaker Change: Right, so if I think about the many interactions that I have with investors over many years, but certainly over let's say the last
Speaker Change: six, nine months. A lot of the investors have been focused on, and certainly the analyst community as well, of what's the momentary change in the trajectory of the growth rate of the industry.
Speaker Change: right and we understand why because it's an amazing industry with an incredible future and we're in a recovering environment.
Speaker Change: and one of the things as a management team as you know we're very focused on great performance and great execution is what's going to be most helpful to our shareholders in creating value and creating a bright future.
Speaker Change: and we're in a recovering market and we're expecting a better year in terms of market environment, better year and organic growth this year, but the thing that we can control
Speaker Change: is how great is our earnings per share. And that's through the power of our PPI business system, strong execution, cost discipline. It's not a mixed drive or any of those things. It's just as a leadership team, what we're focused on is delivering another very differentiated year.
and fully focused on the thing that we can control.
Speaker Change: which is how we drive revenue down to the bottom line.
Speaker Change: You know, it's not the long-term new number, right, but it's the right number for 2025. I think the 40 to 50 basis points of long-term expansion associated with 7 to 9 percent is an appropriate driver, but this year that's the way I would think about it.
Speaker Change: In terms of the three to four percent, one thing that we all should just remind ourselves
Speaker Change: There's a point of headwind in that number for the final runoff of the pandemic. So our assumption is
Speaker Change: effectively zero pandemic revenue related this year, you know, revenue this year. So you can say the normalized growth
is getting back to...
Stronger growth.
Speaker Change: But it's not yet at seven to nine, right? You can do the phasing if you're assuming, as Stephen has laid out, a flat start to the year, and we understand that's clearly why. It's not about a market thing, it's kind of the phasing of days and how we see the service revenue specifically laying out.
you're going to wind up with
Speaker Change: something in the, you know, strong mid-single digits at the end of the year for us, right? And you can say, well, there's a point-ahead win, so...
Speaker Change: You're not quite at the 7 to 9, but you're progressing in a direction that would be encouraging. And we're excited for this year. This is a big step up in expectations, and we're going to deliver it versus last year. And the quarter after quarter of just better market conditions sets us up for an incredible future.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Our next question comes from Tycho Petersen with Jeffreys. Tycho, your line is now open, please go ahead.
Tycho Petersen: Hey, thanks. Marc, I want to probe a little more on the accelerator program and really just try to understand, you know, why now is the right time. Synergies for PPD have gone well.
Speaker Change: So any kind of bogey you can point to in the next couple years in terms of how you're thinking about synergies. Is this more for small or large customers, more on the CDMO side or CRO side? And has this brought to light any additional kind of service offerings that you might need to bring to these customers?
So, Taiko, thanks for the question.
One thing that I've learned
and is held deeply ingrained with our customer base.
Speaker Change: is, you don't make promises that you don't have 100% confidence that you are going to be able to deliver. That's what our customers expect of us.
Speaker Change: So, if you remember back to the announcement of the acquisition of PPD, we talked about the potential to bend the time and cost curve of developing medicines.
Speaker Change: that was a strategy that we articulated, and then you haven't heard us talk about it really at all.
Speaker Change: for the last three years, not because we weren't working on it.
Speaker Change: but because we wouldn't declare that opportunity until we had the proof cases in place, customers actually leveraging the combined capabilities of the company, and the confidence that we can have great conversations with our customers to continue.
to continue to deliver great results for them.
Speaker Change: The authorizations momentum is very strong in terms of how our customers perceive our capabilities and performance. And customers can pick and choose, right? It's not that they have to buy everything, but rather they can pick the relevant insights from us and the relevant expertise.
to shave the weeks and months off of the timelines.
Speaker Change: to be more cost effective and leverage our expertise, and the excitement is very substantial.
Speaker Change: When I think about, you know, we're seeing interest and excitement and authorizations and orders, orders being on the pharma services language.
What we're seeing it is...
Speaker Change: It's faster in biotech because you have a decision maker that sort of has the whole
Speaker Change: domain, but we're seeing great interest in large pharma as well, so.
and with large pharma, you typically will pick.
Speaker Change: a molecule, a part of their pipeline, and work that way. In biotech, it typically will work across.
Speaker Change: you know, everything they're doing. So, it's exciting times and we're just getting going. So, as you know, these are long cycle businesses, so it takes some time to actually translate the authorizations and orders into revenue, but it bodes really well for the acceleration of growth, certainly in 26 and beyond.
Speaker Change: Great and then follow up on China. I didn't actually hear what you're assuming for China growth this year and you're assuming your products come off the trade restrictions list. I think last time you were able to get them off and then I know you don't know there's much exposure to you know volume based procurement but how are you thinking about you know exposure there and obviously the headwinds have magnified.
Speaker Change: Yeah, so in terms of China, when I think about the year, first of all, 24, and that's a reasonable framing for the next year, we really had a very strong year and a very, very challenged environment.
I think.
The economy is challenged, the end market is challenged.
Speaker Change: You know, our business in the fourth quarter grew mid-single digits.
Speaker Change: We grew those single digits for the full year and clearly gaining market share, so the team's done a good job.
Our expectation
is that the environment is similar.
to what we saw last year.
Speaker Change: Stimulus will be a benefit and They'll be just we're not assuming any recovery from an economic Perspective and that may change that may be a bad assumption, but We don't see any evidence yet of a real strengthening environment other than Stimulus, so we just assume that the conditions will continue to be somewhat muted and similar to last year in terms of
Speaker Change: healthcare on value-based procurement and some of the reimbursement things that have been executed. Your framing is exactly right, which is very small for us.
Speaker Change: because our diagnostic business in China is very much in the specialty area, it's not a large business.
Speaker Change: and while there's a little bit of a headwind, it's fully embedded in our guidance and it's not a meaningful number and so that's how we how we left it.
Operator, we have time for one more question.
Speaker Change: Yes, certainly. Our next question is from Puneet Soda with Lyrinc Partners. Puneet, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Puneet Soda: Yeah, hi Marc. Thanks for taking my question. I'll wrap my question in one. On the biopharma side and the biotech side, could you elaborate what you're hearing from your larger biopharma large-cap customers versus the early emerging biotechs?
Speaker Change: and another brief question on the therapeutic side. Marc, about 75% of the IND filings to the FDA in 2024,
Speaker Change: are molecules from China or assets from China. And that number used to be very small in 23 and practically nothing in 2019.
Speaker Change: So my question is, if more of the drug discovery pivots to China, how do you think Thermo is positioned? What are the implications for Thermo and for the tools industry overall, if you could? Thank you.
Speaker Change: Yeah, so thanks for the question. So, you know, what I love about January, as many things I love about January, but is I get to spend an enormous time with our customers.
Speaker Change: and Dr. David M. Hicks. Both out on the West Coast where many convene, as well as in Europe. So I've seen quite a number of customers. And if I say what are the themes, if I start with...
Speaker Change: the larger customers, the larger biopharma, really a real change in confidence, like really quite positive.
Speaker Change: in terms of how they enter the year, feeling like the actions that they've taken over the last couple of years have put their companies in a good spot. Obviously, some companies are benefiting hugely from the GLP-1s, and there's great confidence there, obviously, for the impact. And that excites everybody, in terms of the ability to have very relevant medicines that can get adopted quickly and help human health. And so, actually, it feels to me
Speaker Change: meaningfully in a better mind space which will help over time grow budgets.
Speaker Change: And when I think about the more of emerging customers, actually, that also was positive, right? And there seems to be a reasonable confidence on funding and partnerships to allow for funding to
Speaker Change: to continue to improve as the year unfolds and, you know, still recovering, but certainly better. You know, in terms of where innovation is, I think ultimately what you're seeing, you know, as a few years back, it became really very difficult for a China-based company to serve the global market. You're seeing more licensing deals.
You know, there's a huge amount of work that happens.
Speaker Change: in the Western labs after things are licensed. So, you know, we're well positioned in China, but...
were obviously well-positioned globally. So thank you for...
Speaker Change: The question, let me wrap up with just a couple, a couple quick things. First of all, thanks everyone for participating in the call today. You know, we enter this year with strong momentum and we're in a great position to deliver an excellent 2025. As always, thank you for your support of Thermo Fisher Scientific and we look forward to updating you as the year progresses. Thanks everyone.
Speaker Change: Thank you very much everyone for joining us. We appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
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