Q4 2024 Duke Energy Corp Earnings Call
Elliot: Hello and welcome to the Duke Energy fourth quarter and year-end 2024 earnings. My name is Elliot, I'll be your coordinator today. If you would like to register a question during today's events please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. I'd now like to hand over to Abby Motsinger, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Abby Motsinger: Thank you, Elliot. And good morning, everyone. Welcome to Duke Energy's fourth quarter 2024 earnings review and business update.
Speaker Change: Leading our call today is Lynn Good, Chair and CEO, along with Harry Sideris, President, and Brian Savoy, CFO.
Speaker Change: Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information.
Speaker Change: Actual results may differ from forward-looking statements due to factors disclosed in today's materials and in Duke Energy's FDC filings.
Speaker Change: The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.
Speaker Change: With that, let me turn the call over to Lynn. Abby, thank you. And good morning, everyone. Today, we announce 2024 adjusted earnings per share of $5.90, finishing within our guidance range.
Lynn Good: 2024 was a year of great accomplishment, and in many ways, was defined by our response to Hurricanes Helene and Milton. We were moved by our community's outpouring of support and appreciation for our work during these historic storms.
Lynn Good: We also announced updated guidance today, including a 2025 earnings per share range of $617 to $642, with a midpoint of $630. An $83 billion capital plan.
Lynn Good: which drives 7.7% earnings-based growth. This capital represents infrastructure spending driven by growing jurisdictions and underpinned by robust regulatory processes such as integrated resource plans and approved grid investment spending.
Lynn Good: And finally, the continuation of our 5% to 7% EPS growth rate through 2029, with the potential to earn higher in the range as the years progress.
Lynn Good: Duke Energy enters the back part of this decade in a position of strength, and we're excited about the future. We're committed to delivering strong earnings growth and cash flows for our investors, and superior service to our customers and communities.
Lynn Good: Before we get further into 2025 guidance, let me acknowledge our key achievements in 2024. Turning to slide 5, we continue our track record of regulatory execution with the approval of $45 billion of rate-based investments.
Lynn Good: The regulatory work of the last two years minimizes rate case exposure in 2025 and 26.
Lynn Good: We also advanced generation and transmission through our integrated resource plans and CPCN approvals. And we continue to add solar in Florida with 1,500 megawatts now in service. And finally, I'd like to acknowledge the Piedmont Natural Gas, 3PETE.
Lynn Good: For the third consecutive year, the team earned the J.D. Power No. 1 Customer Satisfaction Ranking for Natural Gas Service in the Southeast.
Lynn Good: And let me also just take a moment and acknowledge last month's announcement. Effective April 1, Harry will become CEO and President of Duke Energy, and Ted Craver will assume the role of Independent Chair of the Board. Therefore today will be my last earnings call prior to retirement. It's been an honor to lead this company, and I appreciate everyone who's been on the journey with me.
Lynn Good: To our employees, thank you for your commitment to our company and customers. To our shareholders, thank you for your investment in Duke Energy. The capital you provide powers our success and makes the work we do possible. And to the analysts who cover our company, you play a valuable role in the investment community and I've appreciated your thoughtful research.
Lynn Good: And to Harry, thank you for being an incredible leader and advisor to me. As many of you know, Harry is a 29-year veteran of the company, with experience in nearly every facet of our business.
Lynn Good: Harry raised his hand for every challenging assignment and has led this company to great success thanks to his commitment to our investors, our employees, and our customers.
Lynn Good: With Harry as CEO and a strong, experienced leadership team around him, Duke Energy is well positioned to execute the next phase of our business strategy, and I'm confident in all that the company will achieve.
Speaker Change: So with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Harry.
Harry Sideris: Thank you, Lynn, for your kind words and for your mentorship over many years. Through your leadership, Duke Energy has become an industry-leading, fully regulated utility that is ideally positioned for the growth ahead.
Harry Sideris: I am deeply honored by the confidence the board has placed in me and the outpouring of support I've received from employees, industry leaders, and public officials, as well as from many of you in the investment community. It is hard to imagine a more compelling time to lead Duke Energy.
Harry Sideris: We are passionate about our mission to power the lives of our customers and the vitality of our communities. I look forward to the opportunities ahead with optimism around our strategy, our operating culture, and our team.
Harry Sideris: Turning to slide six, I assume this new role at a pivotal point for our company and industry. We share the new administration's commitment to ensuring the availability of reliable and affordable energy to meet our country's aspirations for technology leadership and economic growth.
Harry Sideris: These priorities align with our business strategy, and we look forward to working with President Trump, both parties in Congress, and our states to build, operate, and protect the critical infrastructure needed to deliver on these goals.
Harry Sideris: To that end, we are executing our all-of-the-above generation strategy to meet growing demand and replace aging infrastructure.
Harry Sideris: Our diverse mix of new resources includes dispatchable natural gas, which is essential to maintaining reliability and affordability for customers and complements our substantial investments in renewables.
Harry Sideris: In the Carolinas, we have started construction on over 2 gigawatts of natural gas generation that was approved last year, and we are filing CPCNs for our next round of gas plants in the Carolinas and Indiana this quarter.
Harry Sideris: We've secured turbines and gas supply for each of these sites, expediting our ability to connect megawatts to support economic development growth.
Harry Sideris: With our generation investments are accelerating, important grid investments will continue to be a significant portion of our five-year capital plan, ensuring the reliability and resiliency of our system.
Harry Sideris: With 320,000 line miles, we operate the largest transmission and distribution system in the nation.
Harry Sideris: Working with stakeholders across our jurisdictions, we have tailored state-specific, multi-year investment plans that strengthen the grid and ensure our ability to connect new, large load customers.
Harry Sideris: The path forward is clear as we navigate this decade of record infrastructure build, and we remain focused on delivering value to our shareholders while meeting our customers' energy demands now and into the future.
With that, let me turn the call over to Brian.
Thanks, Harry, and good morning, everyone.
Speaker Change: As Lynn mentioned, our full year adjusted earnings per share of 590 was within our 2024 guidance range.
Harry Sideris: For the year, we saw top-line growth from rape cases and rioters across our jurisdictions.
Harry Sideris: which was partially offset by the impacts of a historic hurricane season.
Harry Sideris: For additional details on 24 results please refer to supporting materials in today's news release.
Moving to slide 8.
Harry Sideris: We've set our 2025 EPS guidance range at 617 to 642.
The 630 midpoint represents around 7% growth over 2024.
Harry Sideris: This trend is a continuation of the 6% annual growth we've delivered since 2022.
Harry Sideris: Within the electric segment, constructive rate case outcomes over the past two years will continue to drive results.
Harry Sideris: In January, we implemented our new multi-array plane in Florida and intergeared two of our multi-array plane in North Carolina.
We'll see benefits from the DEC South Carolina rate case.
and are recently approved in the NRA case.
Harry Sideris: as well as growth from good riders in the Midwest and Florida.
Harry Sideris: In addition to rate activity, our plan assumes normal weather and retail sales growth of 1.5% to 2% in 2025.
Harry Sideris: Growth in our gas segment will be driven by the Piedmont North Carolina rate case and annual rate mechanisms in South Carolina and Tennessee, as well as customer additions and integrity management investments.
Harry Sideris: Finally, we expect results of the other segment to be driven by higher interest expense and modest share dilution to fund our growing capital plan.
Harry Sideris: Turning to slide 9, beginning in 2027, we see an acceleration in volumes, with annual load growth increasing to 3-4% at the enterprise.
Harry Sideris: Our confidence in this forecast is underpinned by significant economic development projects coming online, particularly in the Carolinas, which we see growing at 4-5% over the same period.
Harry Sideris: Our economic development pipeline reflects advanced manufacturing projects across multiple sectors, as well as data centers.
Harry Sideris: As a reminder, we take a risk-adjusted approach as we evaluate which projects to include in our forecast.
Harry Sideris: We incorporate just a portion of our total pipeline, focusing on those with letter agreements or in very late stage development.
Harry Sideris: We then utilize discrete, project-level analysis to ensure confidence in when the projects will begin commercial operation and require energy supply.
Harry Sideris: In the near term, we're planning for annual load growth between 1.5% to 2% at the enterprise.
Harry Sideris: Our forecast is supported by strong residential customer growth, improving industrial activity, and the expansion of new and existing businesses across our service territories.
Thank you.
Harry Sideris: Moving to slide 10. Our five-year capital plan is now $83 billion, a 12% increase versus our prior plan.
Harry Sideris: The majority of the increase is driven by generation investments reflected in our IRPs.
Harry Sideris: These investments ramp up over the five-year period as load accelerates and we replace aging infrastructure.
Harry Sideris: In addition, grid investments represent around 45% of our capital plan as we continue to improve the reliability and resiliency of our system.
Thank you.
Harry Sideris: With our updated capital plan, we now expect roughly 7.7% annual earnings-based growth through 2029, a 50 basis point increase from our prior plan.
Harry Sideris: Supporting this growth are efficient recovery mechanisms, which are critical to maintaining a healthy balance sheet, mitigating regulatory lag, and smoothing customer rate impacts.
Harry Sideris: The need for infrastructure to support our growing regions is not limited to this five-year plan. We have a long runway of investment opportunities that extend well into the next decade.
Harry Sideris: Turning to slide 11, as we have demonstrated over many years.
Harry Sideris: Our commitment to our current credit ratings and a strong balance sheet will continue to be a top priority.
Harry Sideris: We are targeting 14% FFO to debt by the end of 2025 and expect to improve above 14% over the five-year plan.
Harry Sideris: Our long-term target provides over 100 basis points of cushion above our Moody's downgrade threshold and over 200 basis points above our S&P downgrade threshold.
to support these credit objectives and fund accretive growth.
Harry Sideris: We increased equity funding to $6.5 billion over the next five years.
Harry Sideris: This increase in equity funds approximately 40% of our capital plan increase.
Harry Sideris: We will continue to use our at-the-market and dividend reinvestment programs to efficiently fund our equity needs.
Harry Sideris: As Harry mentioned, we've delivered many constructive regulatory outcomes over the past two years.
Harry Sideris: These results enable timely recovery of investments and drive considerable improvement in our operating cash flow.
Harry Sideris: In addition, we continue to see a strong market for energy tax credits.
Harry Sideris: In 2024, we efficiently monetized over 500 million of credits that will benefit customers over time.
Harry Sideris: Before we open it up for questions, let me close with slide 12.
Harry Sideris: With a strong track record of regulatory execution, we begin 2025 with confidence in our plan.
and our commitment to the dividend remains unchanged.
Harry Sideris: We understand its importance to our shareholders, and this year marks the 99th consecutive year of paying a quarterly cash dividend.
Harry Sideris: As we look ahead, our robust capital plan, strong customer growth, and constructive jurisdictions position us to deliver 5-7% growth through 2029, with the potential to earn higher in the range as load growth accelerates in the back end of the plan.
Harry Sideris: We look forward to updating you on our progress throughout the year.
With that, we'll open the line for your questions.
Speaker Change: Thank you. If you would like to ask a question please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question please ensure your device is unmuted locally.
Speaker Change: First question comes from Char Poreta with Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Thank you.
Hey guys, good morning.
Morning, Captain.
Can you hear me?
Good morning. Good morning. Good morning.
Speaker Change: Good morning, morning. So just, obviously you guys have pretty good visibility now. The CapEx is updated, financing is updated. You don't have a lot of regulatory uncertainty. Just on the EPS CAGR, you know, Brian, you mentioned this and Lynn mentioned this.
Speaker Change: Higher in the range comments, in the prepared, are we just basically guiding towards the top end of that range?
Speaker Change: And with the credit metric targets, you know, you have out there the over 100 bps above Moody's, 200 bps above S&P. Brian, can you just put a bit of a finer point on a specific target range versus the quote-unquote over language you guys have out there? Thanks.
Brian Savoy: Yeah, I'll start with the EPS, Shar, and thanks for the questions. As we look at our plan and see the load growth accelerating in 27 through 29, clearly the opportunity is there to earn the top half of the range, and you're exactly right. That's what we're alluding to. It's based on the economic development pipeline we have that continues to grow by the day and the ability to serve this growing load.
Speaker Change: 7% over the five years in the top half in the back end of the plan.
Speaker Change: We're very pleased. We finished 2024 at 13.9% FFO to debt in spite of the storms that we saw. We were expecting some pressure from the storms, we saw it, but we overcame it because the operating cash flow in our business is accelerating. And that's based on regulatory outcomes that we've experienced over the past couple of years.
Speaker Change: As we look out in time, we've got it to above 14%, which gives us over 100 basis points, like you mentioned, above Moody's downgrade threshold and over 200 at S&P. We feel like that's the right target for now, above 14. We will come up with specific guidance as the plan progresses.
Speaker Change: Okay, perfect. That's what I was trying to get at, Brian. So there will be a point in time when we can be a little bit more specific on the range that you target over the long term. That's what I was trying to really get to.
That's correct.
Speaker Change: Okay, great. And then just on the load growth, obviously everyone is focused on, you know, the incremental load growth opportunities from hyperscalers, etc.
Speaker Change: The Deep Seek and Stargate stuff has been out there for a few weeks now. Just any change in tone, Lynn and Harry, from your customers and your conversations as we're thinking about spending needs, speed to market, etc.? Or is it kind of full speed ahead? No pun intended, by the way.
Speaker Change: Yeah, I'll take that one Char. Yeah, we feel very confident in our plan that we shared with you and we have a wealth of opportunities in our discussions with the hyperscalers.
Speaker Change: They anticipated efficiency gains, so DeepSeek was not a surprise to them. They're full speed ahead. They're looking at the fact that these efficiencies may actually increase the demand for AI.
Speaker Change: So we have not seen any pullback in anything they're planning on. In fact, we've seen a lot more discussions with accelerating some of their work. And speed, as you mentioned, is very important to them. And it's something that we pride ourselves on in working innovatively on solutions with them.
Speaker Change: to find ways to bring them on quicker, which is what they want. So we'll continue to work with them, but we're not seeing any pullback, in fact, an acceleration in what they're discussing with us.
Okay, that's helpful.
Yep.
Speaker Change: Yes, a little delay. Sorry. You know, Harry, you might talk about what we see in the near-term pipeline. There's a lot of the data centers that are really focused on cloud computing.
Harry Sideris: Yeah, that's a good point, Lynn. The near-term data centers that we're having under construction are really associated with cloud computing and expansion there. And then as we move later into the plan, that's where some of the generative AI data centers are coming in, and that's when we see the larger load growth.
Thank you.
Harry Sideris: Perfect. Thanks guys so much and Harry and Lynn, a big congrats on both your phase twos and Lynn, I know we're going to miss you a lot. It's been over 20 years of earnings calls and but it's going to be fun watching you take over board so thank you much.
Thank you, Tony. Great show.
Speaker Change: We now turn to Julian Dumoulin-Smith with Jeffreys. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Good morning, Julian.
Speaker Change: Debbie, are you here? Yeah, devices on. Green. OK. You said data ready? Great. You can go ahead and find her. Have you seen her? Debra, this is Debbie. I'm not sure that that's your하�re on the screen. Uh-huh. OK, Debbie. Debbie? I don't see her. I thought, kind of changing the subject lines.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: We now move on to Nicholas Campanella with Barclays. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Nicholas Campanella: Hey, good morning, everyone. And I'll echo Shara's comments. Congrats to Lynn. I counted the earnings calls. It's over 80. So yeah, congrats to all of you. Thank you.
Nicholas Campanella: but um hey just in the equity that you outlined for this new plan you know if you were to do kind of junior sub or hybrid or any type of like equity content like instrument does that change the equity needs or do you just kind of remain do you expect this to kind of remain constant through the plan?
You know Nick, I would just...
Speaker Change: this frame the equity a little bit. The equity funding in the context of a company our size is around 1%, 1.5% of the market cap, what we need on an annual basis. And you would expect us to look for the most cost-effective, shareholder-friendly solutions to fund that equity as we look through the plan. And we're planning on using the ATM and the DRIP.
Nicholas Campanella: but hybrids have continued to be attractive in the market and you would expect us to look at this and we will.
Speaker Change: Thanks, and yeah, definitely appreciate it in the context of the market cap, it's smaller, so.
Speaker Change: Another question just legislation in South Carolina has been a discussion point for many investors and Just curious. I assume none of that's kind of in your plan at this point If you can maybe detail how it would impact the plan, you know, are you under earning in South Carolina? Could legislation in any way change your ability? To execute differently on the resource plans you've you put out there. Thank you
Harry Sideris: Yeah, Nick, this is Harry. I'll take that one. You know, we're always pleased to take part in energy policy discussions at our states, and South Carolina is no different. This is something that has been going on since last year and is making progress. It's really more tone setting.
Harry Sideris: around support for the dual-state system that we operate, regulatory timelines.
Harry Sideris: as well as the all-of-the-above strategy and support for that. So we don't anticipate changes to our plans from the legislation, but it will make the tone in South Carolina stronger for us, and we support that and continue to work with our policymakers on that front.
All right, well, thanks a lot. See you soon.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: We now turn to David Alcaro with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open, please go ahead.
David Alcaro: Well, hey, thanks. Good morning. And Lynn, best wishes with your upcoming retirement, and congratulations, Harry.
David Alcaro: Hey Brian, just to put you on the spot, we're going to see, is the top end possible in 2027 specifically? Or how are you thinking about it, just within the specifics of the five-year plan here?
Brian Savoy: Yeah, David, we're not going to get that specific on the day, but we do see load growth stepping up in 2027, and that's in our slides, and that's when a lot of these economic development projects that are under construction now will start taking energy and we'll start serving them. So, you know, that's the year where we do see this kind of ratcheting up of growth on the top line, and it does present the opportunity.
David Alcaro: Okay, great. Now that's helpful. I appreciate you not getting overly precise here with it. Could you speak to just how much of a pipeline of data center activity that you're kind of seeing and working on in the background? It sounds like a lot of the growth is even beyond data centers.
Brian Savoy: that you're seeing crystallize in the state, which is great to see. And just curious, just the quantum of data center activity that's back there in the pipeline.
Brian Savoy: Yeah, David, we have a wealth of opportunity, and not just data centers, but total economic development. We have advanced manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, a very diverse pipeline.
Brian Savoy: Our near-term pipeline and advanced stage pipeline is over 7 gigawatts and our broader pipeline is at least double that and continues to grow.
Brian Savoy: As Brian mentioned, we take a risk-based approach in what we put in our load forecast because we know these loads can move around and the timing of them. So we're really putting in the load forecast items that are either turning dirt or have letter agreements or near letter agreements.
Brian Savoy: and we continue to work with the ones in the pipeline to bring them forward and get them in the load forecast. We feel very strongly about our positioning for economic development and future growth not just in data centers but in other economic development projects.
Thank you. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Yeah, excellent. Now that's helpful. I appreciate the color. And I was just, you know, is it, is it possible that there could be even more, you know, upside, I guess, based on the pace of the development that you're seeing in the, in your service territory? I know you've put obviously a lot of thought into this updated load growth.
Brian Savoy: and of course probability weighted it here, but in terms of the rate of change that you're seeing, is there potential for further upside over time?
Brian Savoy: David, we're definitely confident in the plan that we shared with you and we continue to work to bring as much additional load that we can and we focus on making sure that we can serve that load reliably and affordably.
Brian Savoy: Like I mentioned earlier, the speed is important, so how can we speed this up? And we continue to have those discussions with the hyperscalers as well as the advanced manufacturing and other economic development folks.
Brian Savoy: David, I would say as we look at the pipeline over the last year, it has continued to increase. And if we look out to 2029, for example, 50% of the pipeline is now data centers.
Brian Savoy: So I do think the hard work of the team in bringing customers to our service territory will not stop, and we'll keep you updated along the way on how that translates into growth.
Okay, great. Very helpful. Thanks so much for the call.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: We now return to Julian Dumoulin-Smith with Geoff Rees. Your line is open, please go ahead. Hey, good morning team. Can you guys hear me this time? All set? Good morning. Hey.
Speaker Change: Excellent. Awesome. Hey, good morning. Congratulations to both of you guys. Nicely done and Lynn, all the best. It's been a pleasure over the year. Indeed. Thank you. As they said.
Speaker Change: Absolutely. Look, maybe just shifting the conversation focus slightly, can we talk a little bit about cost savings, just the ability to drive more efficiencies out of the organization. It seems like a potential meaningful year ahead here as you think about the opportunity. Again, maybe a question more for Harry, if anyone, how do you think about the scale of what you could deliver here, especially against the backdrop of what seems like a re-inflationary cycle from
Speaker Change: from a variety of different factors, and how that makes you guys, you know, relatively competitive. I appreciate your rates remain competitive against a number of different peers and metrics, but how do you think about that contributing to the backdrop of economic development in that 3 to 4 percent as well?
Speaker Change: Hey Julian, it's Brian. I'm going to start and Harry's going to come back and add some additional color, but you know, we've been a cost leader in the industry.
Speaker Change: And over the past many years, leveraging technology, including AI, process improvement, and our scale to drive our costs to where they are, and you're recognizing that, and thank you for that. I will say, as our asset base grows to serve a larger customer base.
O&M is going to increase.
Speaker Change: We will continue our cost, our continuous improvements efforts to keep those increases much smaller than the additional customers we're serving or the revenue that comes with them. But over the time as we increase our assets, you do see some slight increase in O&M and I suspect the whole industry is going to see it and we don't believe our position as a cost leader is going to change.
Speaker Change: And we're going to manage this very tightly, but you know, the long-term planning assumption we have is around the 1% CAGR on O&M growth, and that's, again, much less than the assets and customers we're adding.
Speaker Change: And I would add, Julian, we have a strong continuous improvement culture. It's really in our DNA to find better ways to do things each and every day.
Speaker Change: And then our size and scale helps us negotiate better deals with our supply chain partners.
Speaker Change: As well, a lot of improvement that we made using technology on our planning to make sure that we have long-term plans and locked up resources and materials to implement our growth strategy. So, that helps us manage our costs, and we're taking a programmatic approach to some of the generation build that we're doing.
Speaker Change: that's really saving us a lot of money and really allowing us to have definitive ways to implement this in an efficient and dependable manner. So we'll continue to do that.
Speaker Change: Brian mentioned technology and we talk about AI a lot of times on the load side But that's another opportunity for us to continue to leverage those tools to make us more efficient in the future
Thank you.
Awesome.
Speaker Change: Alright, excellent. And then, yeah, I thought we were going to talk a little bit more about the consolidation within the utilities here, if I could maybe press you guys a little bit further on that. But related, if I can, I'd also love to hear a little bit about customer deposits and how you think about that impacting rate base and, you know, starting point and cumulative rate base. Certainly, we've seen that with some of your peers of late, as load has been ramping. Is that a factor here that we should be thinking about, especially as you think about the relative increase in rate base versus the CapEx?
Thank you for watching!
Speaker Change: Julie, let me jump in. You may be talking about some of the creative terra structures
Speaker Change: And I would think of that as being a little bit of noise for us, given the scale of the company. So the rate-based numbers that we're sharing with you have a high degree of confidence in the amount of capital that's actually going to be deployed in our rate structure.
Speaker Change: and I think the team has done an extraordinary job developing creative tariff structures to attract large load in a way that protects our residential customers, our low-income customers, but also makes our state attractive for economic development.
Thank you. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Awesome. Yeah, I was thinking the 7.7K versus the 7.2 that you guys had previously. I would have thought maybe the translation of the, you know, from between the 84 and 73 would have been a little bit higher is what I was getting at earlier, if there was any offsets with it between the CapEx to rate-based translation.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: I think we can go through more specifics with you offline. We'll take it offline.
Yeah, Julian, I would say to you 12% rate-based growth.
is incredibly strong.
Speaker Change: and as a great underpinning of what we see, all that capital has been put through our regulatory processes. We have integrated resource plans in place, etc. I would say to you that if I were to call the operators around the table, they'd like even more capital because the opportunities that we see to invest in our business are just really strong. So we'll keep going and delivering the returns that go with it.
Alright guys, thank you very much. Best of luck again.
Thank you.
Good, Abby Motsinger. Good, Harry Sideris. Good, Harry Savoy.
Thank you. Bye. Bye.
Thank you. Thank you.
Elliot, are you still there?
Thank you. Bye.
Speaker Change: Ladies and gentlemen, sorry for the technical difficulties. We'll now turn to Jeremy Tarnet with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Thank you. Hi, good morning.
Morning.
Lynn, best of luck going forward. Harry, congratulations.
Speaker Change: I was just wondering if you could dig in a little bit more, I guess, on what you're seeing on economic activity.
Speaker Change: In the Carolinas, a lot of good things happening there, but we've heard other care utilities talk about, you know, improvements in the Midwest as well, and just wondering if you could touch on what you see in some of those areas in your footprint.
and their families. Thank you. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Yeah, Jeremy, I'll take that. In Indiana we're seeing strong growth as well. The main focus that we've seen in our territory is around advanced manufacturing and facilities, manufacturing facilities expanding.
Speaker Change: We do have some data centers coming into the pipeline there, but not to the level that others are seeing in Indiana or that we're seeing in the Carolinas, but we continue to have discussions with them.
Speaker Change: and have plans to bring as much economic development into Indiana as we can. It's a very constructive state. They do a great job of attracting industries and have a very business-friendly environment, and we work side-by-side with them to advance that.
I guess your thought process at all.
Speaker Change: Granted, you're making very long-term decisions, and four-year terms aren't ways to really run the ship. I'm just curious if there's anything out of D.C., particularly as it relates to, I guess, nuclear at this point. It seems like there is some maybe improving momentum with regards to nuclear initiatives across the country.
Speaker Change: Jeremy, thanks for that question and I would say that as we think about the strategy of Duke Energy
Speaker Change: It is a strategy that has been built to really serve customers for decades. And as we look at this particular administration, we have shared aspirations with our federal, the federal administration, but frankly with our states as well.
Speaker Change: to ensure that we keep delivering reliable power at low cost and that we deploy generation and embrace this growth in economic development that our states are seeing in a way that demonstrates
Speaker Change: good speed to meet what the market requires, but also does it in a way that continues to underpin economic growth going forward. So that framework and that strategy that we're pursuing, we think, is a strong underpinning, both at the federal level and the state level.
Speaker Change: And if I were to talk about nuclear in particular, we've been, we're a strong nuclear operator. We are pursuing how nuclear can be a part of our, all of the above strategies we get into the 2030s and beyond.
You likely saw that we joined a consortium.
Speaker Change: with TVA and others around a DOE grant. We think continuing to learn more on these technologies are important so that when we're ready to deploy...
Speaker Change: We have a high degree of confidence that there is a supply chain and engineering design constructors ready to go so that we can produce and operate these new technologies in a way that makes sense for customers.
Speaker Change: So we are deeply engaged at the state level and the federal level and see a lot of opportunity to support growth across the U.S.
and Harry Sideris. Thank you.
Got it. That's helpful. Thank you.
Thank you.
Operator: Our next question comes from Anthony Crotale with Mizuho. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Speaker Change: Hey, good morning, congrats Lynn, congrats Harry, unfortunately my question is for Brian, so you guys get a little break here.
Speaker Change: It may be the same question. I guess one of them, and I don't want to part, you know, I'm not looking to hold you down. I know you address a little bit with Char. On slide 11, you talk about FFO to debt to improve above 14% over the five-year plan. What's a reasonable cushion to assume that that
Speaker Change: like you would improve by? And the second question is more so, as you've talked about in the back end of the plan, you tend, you expect to be towards the high end of the five to 7% earnings growth.
Speaker Change: How do you think about the income statement, you know, maybe we raise the earnings growth rate or we work on improving the balance sheet maybe to the upgrade trigger? And it may be the same question so I'll leave it there.
Speaker Change: Thanks Anthony, and you know, as we think about our FFO to debt and the size and scale of Duke Energy.
Speaker Change: I firmly believe 100 basis points of cushion from the Moody's downgrade threshold gives us flexibility to execute our plans with confidence.
Speaker Change: and to deal with uncertainties that come our way. And we've proven that over the past several years. The rating agencies have been tremendously positive towards us.
Speaker Change: and the regulatory outcomes that we've been able to work with our regulators on.
Speaker Change: have provided that operating cash flow that the rating agencies are looking for and that consistency of top-line revenues that support a credit profile of ours. So I would start with that. The 14% is a solid number for Duke Energy, given the size and scale and diversity we have, and the rating agencies have been very supportive of us every step of the way.
As we look through time,
Speaker Change: Operating cash flow does accelerate. We're making more investments. Those investments are turning into top-line revenues, and we see the 14% improving. Again, I'm going to provide more details as the plan progresses, but we feel very good that
Speaker Change: where we sit and how we see the five years playing out in front of us.
Speaker Change: And, you know, on the earnings question, I would just say that load growth in 27, 28, 29 is a step change for us.
Speaker Change: It moves up from the 1.5% to 2% we're seeing in 2025 and 2026 to a 3% to 4% across the enterprise. And that's a substantial step up, and it gives us clearly the opportunity to earn in the top half.
Great, thanks so much for taking the questions.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Our final question today comes from Dirk Esch-Chopra with Evercore ISI. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Speaker Change: Thank you for watching. This is a production of WSJC, and I'm Harry Sideris. This is a production of WSJC, and I'm Harry Sideris.
Dirk Esch-Chopra: Hey team, good morning, thank you for giving me time and I call, you know, the congratulations for Lynn and Harry. All the best to you both. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Brian, sorry, I'll apologize in advance because it's an annoying question. But when I think about the 25 guidance,
Speaker Change: and I compare it to the 24 original guidance midpoint. It's a 5% EPS growth.
Speaker Change: and obviously the 25 guidance was lowered because of hurricane and one-time stuff. So I'm just wondering, are you being conservative as it relates to 2026 or there other headwinds like interest rates that is causing you to be at the low end versus the original 2025? Any color you could share there?
Bye.
Interrogation, I would start with...
Speaker Change: The 630 is firmly within our 5-7%. As we've looked at our plan, we feel like it's the right level for us. But you'll see one item I'd point to in our electric walk-up on the earnings. We have O&M increasing.
And that is due to two things.
Speaker Change: Resources focused on the storms in the second half of the year, right? So we didn't do some grid projects or some generation outages that we had planned. Those are going to be caught up in 2025, so we have some shifts in O&M from that. And we also set aside
Speaker Change: Some O&M resources for additional storm costs because we've seen a more frequent set of storms impact our regions.
Speaker Change: And if you wanted to point to one thing, I would say that's a timing shift that's showing up in 25 that you might not have had in your model, but other than that, we feel like the 630 is right in line with where we need to be, and we have a high degree of confidence in achieving it.
Speaker Change: Got it. It's a little bit of O&M catch-up and timing. That's very helpful. I appreciate that. And then...
Speaker Change: Finally, just shifting gears, looking at the ROE charts that you publish,
annually. Thank you for doing that.
Speaker Change: The Ohio Kentucky is still considerably below your other subsidiary ROE averages. I'm just wondering what steps, and you have a footnote there, you know, timing a rate case on that. So what steps could you take to kind of get it to 9 plus percent? Just any thoughts there. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Yeah, thank you for that question, Dergash. Yeah, we continually look and work in ways with rape cases and other mechanisms on our riders to improve that. And we will continue to focus on that, working with our commissioners.
in the future.
Okay, thank you.
Good.
Speaker Change: The only thing I would add is there can be some variability in ROE from year to year as we think about
Speaker Change: Whether it's an outage or we think about other activities that may be going on, I would ask you to evaluate those returns over a longer term period. And our objective is to earn at our allowed rate of return by aggressively pursuing rate cases and cost reductions in a way to position the utilities for success.
Thank you.
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Speaker Change: Okay, yep, yep, absolutely. Thank you, thanks again for the time.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: This concludes our Q&A. I'll now hand back to Lynne Good for any final remarks.
Speaker Change: Well, thank you all. I appreciate the sentiments of congratulations for Harry and for me, but most of all, I appreciate your investment in Duke Energy. We feel like we've presented a strong, long-term case for growth, for cash flows, and delivering returns for all of you, and look forward to continuing that conversation. So thanks again for joining us.
Speaker Change: Ladies and gentlemen, today's call is now concluded. We'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.