Q4 2024 JetBlue Airways Corp Earnings Call
Thank you.
Krista: Good morning, my name is Krista and I will be your conference operator today.
Speaker Change: I would like to welcome everyone to the JetBlue Airways fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call.
Krista: As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. And at this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. I will now like to turn the conference over to JetBlue's Director of Investor Relations, Koosh Patel. Please go ahead, sir.
The End
Speaker Change: Thanks, Krista. Good morning, everyone. And thanks for joining us for our fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. This morning, we issued our earnings release and the presentation that we will reference during this call.
Joanna Geraghty: All of those documents are available on our website at www.investor.shiftblue.com and on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. In New York to discuss our results are Joanna Geraghty, our Chief Executive Officer, Marty St. George, our President, and Ursula Hurley, our Chief Financial Officer.
Joanna Geraghty: During today's call, we'll make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor Provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements include, without limitation, statements regarding our first quarter and full year 2025 financial outlook and our future results of operations and financial position, including long-term financial targets.
Joanna Geraghty: industry and market trends, expectations with respect to tailwinds and headwinds, our ability to achieve operational and financial targets, our business strategy, and our plans for future operations and the associated impacts on our business.
Joanna Geraghty: All such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements.
Joanna Geraghty: Please refer to our most recent earnings release as well as our fiscal year 2023 10-K and other financial and other filings for a more detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking statements.
Joanna Geraghty: The statements made during this call are made only as of the date of the call and other than as may be required by law, we undertake no obligation to update the information. Investors should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.
Joanna Geraghty: Also, during the course of our call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. For an explanation of these non-GAAP measures and the reconciliation to the corresponding GAAP measures, please refer to our earnings release, a copy of which is available on our website and on sec.gov.
Speaker Change: and now I'd like to turn the call over to Joanna Geraghty, JetBlue's CEO. Good morning and thank you for joining JetBlue's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call.
Speaker Change: Before I begin, I want to take a moment to express our sympathy and support to those affected by the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles, especially several of our crew members who have experienced tremendous loss.
Transcription by CastingWords
Transcription by CastingWords
Speaker Change: We ended the year with momentum, and I am pleased to announce for the fourth quarter, we generated a positive adjusted operating margin of 0.8%, over two points better than in 2023.
Speaker Change: 2024 was a period of transition for JetBlue, and at the onset of the year, we introduced a new leadership team who worked expeditiously to launch our standalone strategic plan, JetForward, last July.
Speaker Change: This plan is fundamental to achieving our goal of returning to sustained profitability.
Speaker Change: So we weren't profitable for the year. We made progress in 2024 with operating margin expansion during the second half of the year. I'm very proud of the achievements so far and believe that the early results bear evidence that we are taking the right steps towards profitability.
Turning to pages 4 and 5 of the earnings presentation.
Speaker Change: At the start of 2024, we knew we had big challenges to tackle, including evolved customer preferences, ongoing issues with Pratt & Whitney, air traffic control, and costs growing faster than revenues.
Speaker Change: Jet Forward was designed to leverage our strengths to combat these challenges and put us back on a path to profitability.
Speaker Change: With great urgency, we announced and implemented over a dozen different strategic initiatives and made progress in every facet of our business, including customer satisfaction, crew member engagement and operational performance.
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Speaker Change: We launched a multi-year investment to improve operational reliability, and we are seeing benefits across nearly all the metrics that we track.
Speaker Change: For example, on-time performance was 6 points better in 2024 than in 2023. Net promoter score improved by nearly 10 points.
Speaker Change: And we rank sixth place overall in Wall Street Journal's 2024 airline rankings, improving three spots from last place overall in 2023.
Speaker Change: We closed 15 blue cities and redeployed over 20% of our network, realigning our network into our core strengths on the East Coast.
Speaker Change: We refocused our LAX footprint and boosted flying across New England and the Caribbean. We reinvested in our core Florida franchises and expanded our San Juan focus city with the addition of a crew base and more flying.
Speaker Change: We also further seasonalized our transatlantic flying in the winter, creating new destinations for mint aircraft. Many of these changes are now in their early stages of ramp.
Speaker Change: We also announced and implemented a variety of changes to our products and perks to ensure we are evolving our offering to deliver the experience our customers want.
Speaker Change: We rolled out preferred seating, added multiple loyalty and distribution partners, and enhanced our Blue Basic offering by adding back a complimentary carry-on bag. This initiative has outperformed our expectations, and our data shows we are attracting incremental customers to JetBlue.
Speaker Change: To secure our financial future, we deferred $3 billion of capital expenditures to 2030 and beyond, and raised significant strategic financing to provide runway for Jet Forward.
Speaker Change: These moves strengthened our liquidity positions and will ensure we have the runway in place to achieve the benefits of JetForward.
Speaker Change: Alongside implementing these changes, we announced additional initiatives which launch this year and next, such as even more, domestic first class, lounges, a premium co-branded credit card, and a new cost transformation program.
Speaker Change: Jeff Lewis gone through immense change and feedback from our customers has been positive.
Speaker Change: Crew member sentiment on the strategy has also been encouraging, with crew member engagement scores up year over year, demonstrating better alignment across the organization in support of executing Jet Forward.
Speaker Change: Importantly, even as we take steps to evolve our offerings to meet the needs of customers today, I'm proud that our core product offering was once again rated best in the industry.
Speaker Change: The progress we made during 2024, combined with robust fourth quarter results, strengthens the confidence we have and our ability to deliver on our commitments in 2025. Now, shifting to slide six to review fourth quarter performance.
Speaker Change: For the fourth quarter, we outperformed across all metrics relative to our updated guidance, enabling us to generate adjusted operating income of $18 million.
Speaker Change: We saw benefits from our continued investments in reliability as we persevered through and quickly recovered from inclement weather and ATC challenges over the holiday period.
Speaker Change: The operation delivered a completion factor of 99% in the quarter, and on-time performance improved five points year over year, despite navigating more air traffic control programs than in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Speaker Change: The improved operational performance also benefited our fourth quarter Chasm-X fuel growth, which finished better than the low end of our revised guidance range.
Speaker Change: Revenue beat our revised guidance midpoint by 1.4 points, aided by a healthy November and December holiday season and the performance of our 2024 revenue initiatives.
Speaker Change: These initiatives drove $395 million of revenue for the year, $95 million over our target of $300 million.
Speaker Change: Encouragingly, this was a quicker ramp than we anticipated and was originally part of the forecast we expect for Jet Forward in 2025. As a result, we are pleased to say we have already captured $90 million of our $800-$900 million target for incremental EBIT through 2027.
Speaker Change: Going forward, we plan to provide biannual updates in the progress of JetForward with our next update scheduled for our July 2025 earnings call.
Speaker Change: We finished 2024 with a higher operating margin than we expected in July when we launched Jet Forward. This strong performance, combined with benefits from lower fuel, resulted in 2024 operating margin three and a half points higher than what was implied by our July guidance.
Speaker Change: Turning to page seven, in 2025, we plan to build an even more reliable and resilient operation as we continue refining our schedules to further improve on-time performance.
Speaker Change: Enhancing the tool set in our System Operations Center, and investing in technical dispatch reliability to reduce controllable cancels.
Speaker Change: Marty and Ursula will provide more detail on what to expect from our other priority moves this year.
Speaker Change: In all, we believe JetForward is on track to deliver about $200 million of incremental EBIT contribution in 2025. As a result, we expect to achieve a full-year positive adjusted operating margin ranging from 0 to 1%.
Speaker Change: We recognize, however, there is still significant room to grow and close the gap to our industry peers. The Pratt & Whitney aircraft groundings have been and will continue to be a significant impediment to margins in the near term.
Speaker Change: We believe the groundings had a direct negative impact on operating margin of approximately two and a half points in 2024, and we estimate that direct impact will grow to three points in 2025, as AOGs are expected to increase to the mid to high teens.
Ursula will expand on the breakdown of this impact.
Speaker Change: This is a pivotal year for JetBlue, but also for the industry. With a new administration in Washington focused on efficiency, there is a real opportunity to structurally improve the FAA and fix the air traffic control challenges our industry has been plagued with. This could represent a clear benefit to the traveling public and another tangible tailwind
If a focus effort is undertaken, undertaken.
Speaker Change: We look forward to partnering with the new leaders at the DOT and FAA to help make this happen. I am excited by the opportunity in front of us, and as we approach the 25th anniversary of JetBlue's first flight in February, I am confident we are executing on the right plan to usher in the next 25 years of flying.
Speaker Change: JetForward positions us to lean into our historic strengths, adapt to a changing industry and meet our commitments to our shareholders, customers and crew members. The first commitment of which is to run a sustainably profitable business and we will continue to work with absolute urgency to get there.
Speaker Change: As we close the chapter on 2024, I would like to share a heartfelt thank you to our crew members who continue to deliver exceptional customer service while managing immense change.
Speaker Change: I would also like to recognize the efforts of those that stepped up during the holidays. Without your commitment, meeting our goals would not be possible.
Speaker Change: We have incredible momentum coming out of 2024, and I'm excited to build on it in 2025. Over to Marty for a commercial update and outlook.
Marty: Thank you, Joanna. I echo your thanks to our crew members. Thank you all for delivering the JetBlue experience to our customers day in and day out, especially over the busy holiday season.
Turn to slide 9.
Marty: Fourth quarter revenue performance was solid, with unit revenues growing 3.2% year-over-year on 5% less capacity.
Marty: Close-in demand was strong in the November and December holiday peaks and helped to drive about 1.5 points of unit revenue improvement versus our initial guidance.
Marty: Unit revenue is strong across many geographies. On the transatlantic front, we saw unit revenue ramp nicely as the region continues to mature, particularly as we enter our first winter with a more seasonal schedule.
Marty: Our Transcom franchise continues to produce healthy, year-over-year RASM, supported by strong MIT performance.
Marty: Across MIT and EMS, unit revenues are up in the high single digits year-over-year in the fourth quarter.
Marty: Success of Preferred Seating in 2024 is another testament to the strength of the premium leisure customer segment. It is healthy and growing, and we are enhancing our suite of products to better serve those customers.
Marty: Loyalty also drove strength during the quarter, now accounting for 12% of our total revenue, which is a multi-point improvement from where we were in 2019.
Marty: Todd's Spam was up high single digits year over year, and active True Blue members were up low single digits.
Marty: Simplifying that, while the core airline may not be growing, our customers are driving outsized loyalty growth through their positive responses to the JetForward strategy and the enhancements to our program.
Marty: Fourth quarter benefited from our 2024 revenue initiatives, which generated $395 million of top-line benefit for the year. The breakdown of these initiatives can be found on slide 10 of the earnings presentation.
Marty: I revised the blue basic carry-on baggage policy and preferred ceasing were the key contributors to quicker revenue capture in 2024.
Marty: The progress of these revenue initiatives is only the beginning, and it provides us with significant momentum headed into 2025.
Turning to our first quarter and full year outlooks.
Marty: First quarter capacity is planned to be down 5% to down 2% year over year, and for the year capacity growth will be roughly flat compared to 2024.
Marty: In the first quarter, we expect year-over-year RASM in the range of down 0.5% to up 3.5%.
Marty: With the shift of Easter back into the second quarter, expected to be a roughly 1.5 point headwind.
Unknown Speaker
Speaker Change: As a reminder, the first quarter is a historically slower period of flying for Leisure Airlines with many trough weeks.
Speaker Change: We've also redeployed about 20% of our network, and much of it is in the early innings of its ramp.
Speaker Change: In the first quarter, we are seeing elevated competitive capacity in many of these markets, particularly in the northeast of Florida.
We expect competitive capacity will continue to ebb and flow.
Speaker Change: And we remain committed to competing in these geographies core to our Jet Forward Strategy.
Speaker Change: As we look to the rest of the year, the continued execution of our Jet Work Forward Plan is expected to propel unit revenue growth higher than first quarter levels. For the full year, we expect RASM to increase 3% to 6%.
In May, we will launch new Daily Knots Up service.
Speaker Change: to Madrid and Edinburgh from Boston, as part of our efforts to expand and further seasonalize our transatlantic flying.
Speaker Change: Earlier this month, we made an additional network announcement, adding even more summer seasonal destinations in support of flying the best East Coast Leisure Network.
Speaker Change: And as we continue to take a hard look at root profitability across our network, we will plan to remain nimble and dynamic in our network optimization efforts.
Speaker Change: In 2025, our products and perks will also take a step forward, complementing changes to our network.
Speaker Change: In addition to the merchandising changes to Eton Moore and after last quarter,
We are updating the onboard experience to elevate the offering.
Speaker Change: We also recently added a new way for customers to pay for their flights using Venmo, demonstrating our commitment to enhancing customer experience on every step of the travel journey.
Speaker Change: Over the course of the year, several JetForward initiatives announced last year are also scheduled to go live, including our premium co-branded credit card, which begins accepting applications very soon.
Speaker Change: And our launch of Data Case Terminal 5 is set to open in the fourth quarter.
Speaker Change: Unlocking incremental, large and accretive revenue is crucial to the success of that plan and the progress for the shareholders.
Between the momentum we have from the 2024 Revenue Initiatives
Speaker Change: Improvements in customer satisfaction as a result of a better operation, the ramp of our network changes and our 2025 JetForward initiatives.
Speaker Change: I am confident we have all the right pieces in place to generate meaningful unit revenue growth and achieve positive operating margin.
Speaker Change: Now I hand it over to Ursula for the financial update.
Ursula: Thank you, Marty. In the early months of 2024, we refocused JetBlue on a path to profitability, which we have moved quickly to execute against.
Speaker Change: We exceeded our revenue initiative forecast of $300 million by $95 million, delivered on all of our commitments since launching JetForward.
Ursula: Concluded our Structural Cost Program, delivering $190 million of benefit at the top end of our forecasted range.
Ursula: Beat our CHASM-X fuel guidance four quarters in a row and delivered full year 2024 CHASM-X fuel in line with our initial January guidance.
Ursula: Encouragingly, we ended the year delivering positive operating margin for the second half, a significant improvement from our July expectations.
Ursula: We also acted quickly to secure our financial future, deferring CapEx and raising over $3 billion of strategic financing, helping to provide JetForward the runway it needs to generate meaningful benefits.
Ursula: Our new leadership team delivered on our refocus commitments in 2024 and we aim to do the same in 2025.
Ursula: Now, turning to slide 14. For the full year, 2024 Chasm X fuel grew 6.6% year-over-year, firmly within our initial guidance of up mid to high single digits year-over-year.
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Through the Combined Benefits of Controllable Cost Reductions.
Ursula: As well as reliability-driven cost efficiencies, we were able to offset about one point of headwind from the Pratt & Whitney compensation accounting change and a half a point of headwind from targeted capacity reductions in the second half.
Ursula: For the fourth quarter, unit costs increased 11%, which beat our revised guidance of 12.5% to 14.5%, driven again by operational efficiency, controllable cost reductions, and year-end adjustments.
Ursula: With our performance over the year and in the fourth quarter, we have sustained momentum on controllable costs heading into 2025.
Ursula: Looking to this year, we expect aircraft on the ground from the GTF engine issue to rise to the mid to high teens, resulting in flat capacity and CHASM-X fuel at 5 to 7 percent.
Ursula: And with the help of strong unit revenue growth, we are forecasting positive operating margin in 2025 in line with the goal we first stated back in July.
Speaker Change: As Joanna mentioned, the AOGs represented a significant headwind to our operating margin performance in 2024, and we estimate that impact will increase to about three points of drag to operating margin in 2025.
Ursula: We've broken down this impact on slide 15 of the earnings presentation.
Ursula: The direct impact includes the variable profit and staffing efficiencies we lose by not flying all of our available aircraft and also the net cost from extending our A320 fleet.
Ursula: It does not include the indirect impacts to JetBlue, such as impacts to our market share and gate utilization.
Ursula: This situation is fluid, but ultimately transitory, and the margin headwind is expected to resolve as the grounded aircraft count begins to decrease, which is expected to occur in the next year or two.
Ursula: In the meantime, we plan to continue employing creative growth and cost optimization strategies to offset as much of the impact as possible.
Ursula: We expect Chasm X fuel growth to remain slightly elevated in the first quarter of 2025, driven by the strategic capacity reductions during the trough, lapping against our 2024 pilot wage rate step-up in the timing of maintenance.
Ursula: As a result, we anticipate CASMX fuel to be up 8 to 10% in the first quarter. Over the course of the year, CASMX is expected to moderate down from first quarter levels.
Ursula: In 2025, we expect to begin realizing benefits from the $175 million 2027 Jet Forward Cost Transformation Target, with capture weighted more to the back half of the year.
Ursula: Cost savings include technology-driven efficiencies in our operational and commercial functions, enhanced planning and sourcing strategies, and savings from a cost-functional fuel burn optimization effort.
Turning to our balance sheet on slide 16.
In 2025, our financial priorities remain the same.
Ursula: First and foremost, achieving sustained operating profitability is critical, which will set us on a path to generate free cash flow and pay down debt in the coming years.
Ursula: One of the first steps towards securing our financial future was our $3.2 billion strategic capital raise last August.
Ursula: We ended 2024 with $3.9 billion of total liquidity, excluding our undrawn $600 million revolving credit facility.
Ursula: The incremental liquidity is expected to fund all aircraft deliveries in 2025 with cash, adding to our existing unencumbered asset base of about $5 billion.
Ursula: Our CapEx forecast for 2025 is approximately $1.4 billion and $270 million for the first quarter.
We anticipate ending 2025 with a healthy liquidity buffer.
Ursula: Turning to our fleet plan on page 17, which has a number of puts and takes this year.
Ursula: In 2025, we expect 24 deliveries, 20 A220s and 4 A321neos.
Ursula: We've also been working to extend the lives of our A320 fleet, and thus far, we've taken steps to extend 14 aircraft through a combination of lease extensions, lease buyouts, and changes to the retirement dates of owned aircraft.
Ursula: The capacity benefits from these actions are expected to phase in over several years.
Ursula: Finally, in 2025, we plan to retire the remaining E-190 aircraft after the summer peak, fully replacing them with the more fuel-efficient and customer-friendly A220s.
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in clothing.
Ursula: The culmination of our efforts from 2024 into 2025 is expected to result in positive operating margins for the year, a big milestone for JetBlue and a commitment we made in July.
Ursula: By the end of 2025, we are forecasting nearly $300 million of total incremental EBIT generated from our Jet Forward program, growing to $800 to $900 million by the end of 2027.
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Ursula: One constant in our industry is that it never stands still, and we know we can't control every change or challenge.
Ursula: However, with JetForward, JetBlue is relentlessly focused on outpacing our challenges and hitting our commitments for our shareholders, crew members, and customers.
Speaker Change: Thank you. And we will now open it up to questions. Over to you, Krista.
Krista: Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. And if you would like to withdraw that question, again, press star one.
Speaker Change: We do ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up and for any additional questions, please requeue Your first question comes from the line of Jamie Baker with JP Morgan. Please go ahead
Jamie Baker: Oh, hey, good morning, everybody. Probably a couple for Marty. So if we look at the implied revenue guide in the first quarter, and compare it to the full year guide, it's clear that you're modeling for, you know, several points of acceleration.
Speaker Change: Basically slide 12 is what I'm referencing, but how should we think about
Speaker Change: each of those buckets of improvement. So for example, let's just pick a round number you're modeling for five points of revenue acceleration.
Speaker Change: How much of that is rising tide? How much is idiosyncratic to jet forward? Maybe there's some corporate in there. You did call out the Easter shift. Yeah, that's that's my first question.
Speaker Change: Sure. Thanks, Jamie. Thanks for the question. Well, obviously, the first easy chunk is Easter because, you know, it's a point-and-a-half move from first quarter to second quarter. And frankly, the rest of the improvement is basically the continued implementation of Jet Forward and the continued phasing of the benefits.
Speaker Change: All the same that we promise already and started delivering. There was no assumption in here about a dramatic change in competitive capacity. This is basically us managing what we can manage ourselves and delivering on all those commitments. So there's no
Speaker Change: Exogenous factor that's driving the numbers we're seeing. It's basically our forecast of the baseline jet blue and putting on top of that
Speaker Change: All the things that we're doing. Obviously, we look at the normal factors, you know, GDP, CPI, competitive capacity, things like that, but we're not expecting any direction change from sort of consensus numbers out there right now.
Speaker Change: Okay, and then as a follow up to that Marty, just looking at forward schedules, you know, you've got some double digit growth going on in Boston.
Speaker Change: You called out two international markets, but, you know, relative to that full year revenue aspiration.
Speaker Change: Is it fair to characterize Boston as a likely Razum drag? And if so, could you quantify that?
Unknown Speaker
Speaker Change: I mean, obviously, with the growth that it's getting, you know, I say random growth in Boston is less than we're seeing elsewhere, I think it's just a mathematical question more than anything else.
Speaker Change: I would say we're still not back to the peak we were in Boston.
Speaker Change: Pre-NEA, and frankly, you know, I think what we realize in the entire Northeast.
Speaker Change: And I think one of the things we talked about during the communication of the Jet Forward
Speaker Change: is that, you know, we had basically given up a lot of leisure lift when we moved airplanes from Northeast Leisure into basically LaGuardia to cover, you know, business back at CME NEA. So we finally finished unwinding LaGuardia growth.
Speaker Change: in 2024 and those ASMs are being now redeployed back into where they originally were, which was Northeast Asia.
Speaker Change: Okay, very helpful. Thanks for taking my questions, Bonnie. Take care.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Daniel McKenzie with Seaport Global. Please go ahead.
Daniel Mckenzie: Oh, hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for the time. So setting aside today's stock price, you know, looks like you are, you know, giving us the first kind of giving us your, you know, how you're thinking about normalized earnings longer term. So giving us the first pieces. Sorry.
Daniel Mckenzie: So if we could just, if all it goes according to plan, you know, should investors simply add $650 million to their 2025 EBIT outlook to get to some semblance of normalized earnings if they want to discount back to the day today?
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Speaker Change: Yeah, thanks, Dan. Appreciate the question. I think maybe just pulling up a notch.
Daniel Mckenzie: I'm really proud of the team and the momentum that they're delivering under Jet Forward.
Daniel Mckenzie: As you think about this year, we should end this year with 200 to 300 of EBIT.
Daniel Mckenzie: And you should think of 26 and 27 as similar amounts. So as we look at exiting jet forward, it's a commitment to 800 and 900 million of EBIT that obviously sits on top of a constructive macro backdrop. And we're cycling against some of the Pratt headwinds.
Daniel Mckenzie: So, yeah, you're thinking about it absolutely in the right way.
Daniel Mckenzie: I think frustratingly, you know, we would love to have, you know, I think even faster, faster ramp, but this is a multi-year strategy, and it's not linear. And we're focused on the long term here and getting JetBlue back to, back to sustained profitability. So it's just going to take a little time, but really, really pleased with the progress so far. You know, the implied guide when we launched JetForward for full year 24 was four and a half.
Transcription by Transcription Outsourcing, LLC.
Daniel Mckenzie: since we launched Step Forward. So I think really good progress there and just continuing to focus on executing for the long term.
Speaker Change: Understood. Terrific. And then, Ursula, second question on unit cost, CASM-X, the CASM-X cadence in particular.
Speaker Change: I'm, you know, wondering how that trend throughout the year. And, you know, can we, you know, does it imply as we exit 2025 some chasm x directionally as we head into 2026?
Speaker Change: Or is there some perspective you can share on Pratt & Whitney groundings that could potentially impact that?
Speaker Change: Yeah, good morning, Dan. Thanks for the question. So, um, I'm really proud of the team delivering on 2024 controllable costs guide that we laid out last January, despite Pratt and Whitney headwinds and also some capacity that we pulled down in the trough.
Speaker Change: Here in 2025, we're delivering exactly what we've been telling you guys, you know, with roughly CLAC capacity.
Transcription by Transcription Outsourcing, LLC.
Speaker Change: The pilot wage rate step-up that we executed last August. So CASMX will come down in the quarters to come, and I have a lot of confidence the team will deliver on the 5 to 7% full year guide.
Speaker Change: As we look beyond 2025, the Pratt & Whitney scenario does continue to be really fluid. I do think that we will hit the peak AOG within the next one to two years. I mentioned that in my prepared remarks.
Speaker Change: If we sit here in 2026 with a roughly flat capacity number, for example, I would yet again expect that mid-single-digit range in terms of controllable costs.
Speaker Change: We do continue to see inflationary pressures, but with the launch of our new cost transformation program as part of Jet Forward, that is to offset the inflationary pressures.
Thanks so much for the time you guys.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Duane Fenningworth with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
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Speaker Change: Hey, thank you. Um, so just to follow up on on Dan's question, one of the questions we're getting earlier this year, um, is that bridge from the March quarter cost outlook to the rest of the year and to Q specifically. So, I wondered if you had any early thoughts on, you know, the shape of two Q chasm relative to the first quarter.
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Speaker Change: Thanks for the question, Dwayne. As I said, Q1 is the most elevated. I do expect
Unknown Speaker
Speaker Change: You know, there to be a step down as we head into the second quarter. You know, we're not guiding here today, but I would expect a different capacity layout as well, which you can probably tell from the forward schedules that are already posted. So I do envision us being, you know, in a slightly positive capacity environment, which should also help support the step down in Q2. As a reminder, the pilot wage
Speaker Change: We granted last August, so that doesn't last until we hit August. So Q2, we'll see a headwind associated with that as well.
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Speaker Change: Got it. And then just, Marty, can you expand a little bit on what you're seeing in in Caribbean and Latin and maybe taking Easter shift off the table? You know, what sort of improvement are you seeing there? And
Speaker Change: you know, relative to the rest of the system and maybe just talking sequentially, you know, 4Q to 1Q or 4Q to 1Q adjusted for Easter shift. Thanks for taking the questions.
Speaker Change: Sure, Duane, thanks. I'd say consistent with what we've heard about fourth quarter results.
Speaker Change: and First Quarter Outlook, you know, international is a strong point for us.
Speaker Change: You know, Latin has actually fully recovered from what we had seen at the beginning of 2024.
Speaker Change: Transatlantic. And Latin's actually been strong for us. A little bit of pressure in San Juan, it's mostly capacity driven, but we're maintaining our customer base there very well. And also Transatlantic has done very well. So again, I think it's just as what we've heard, international is a strong point.
Speaker Change: Transatlantic is really not big for us at all, we'll have to move the needle, and San Juan is a relatively big part of Latin. So overall I think the fundamental demand...
Speaker Change: Profile for Latin is very strong right now, I'm very happy.
Thank you.
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Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Tom Fitzgerald with TD Cowan. Please go ahead.
Tom Fitzgerald: Thanks so much. Would you mind just touching on the competitive capacity in Fort Lauderdale, what you're seeing there?
Speaker Change: It's funny, when we had gone through the process of Sparibs bankruptcy, there were a lot of conversations at the time about
Speaker Change: opportunities it may represent. And for a lot of them, I think if you look at the reorganization plan, they've put a stake in the ground that a lot of that is important to them. And frankly, it's exactly what we had expected, because a lot of those were important to us too.
Speaker Change: Overall, competitive capacity is still down in Fort Lauderdale, so we're actually in a very good environment, but I don't think we're expecting any significant pull down from Spirit down there. And frankly, we're very happy with how Fort Lauderdale is performing right now.
Speaker Change: Okay, that's really helpful. And then I'd love to get your perspective on non-aircraft CapEx and, you know, in-flight entertainment, Wi-Fi, your mobile apps, just given kind of the arms race across the industry and making investments.
Speaker Change: They're just kind of curious how you're thinking like the size of investments you're thinking and any focus areas. What are your thoughts? Thanks again for the time.
Joanna Geraghty: Yeah, hey, Tom. Thanks. It's Joanna. I can let Urs touch on the
Urs: The CapEx question in general, but from a Wi-Fi perspective, you know, we've got a fully outfitted fleet of Wi-Fi Vifaps, the partner, and it's free. And we've had that for 10 years. And we're the only carrier that can make that claim. And we continue to be very pleased with how that Wi-Fi relative to the competition is performing. We're obviously keeping a close eye on customer preference and the other opportunities that are out there, and we'll continue to make sure that we stay very competitive.
in this space. Maybe Urs on just the
So maybe just some color on the CapEx, so
Urs: We had $1.6 billion in CapEx in 2024, so we're actually stepping down.
Urs: in 2025. So the guide is $1.4 billion. About 85% of that $1.4 billion is associated with aircraft. So not only do we have the 24 deliveries, but we also are investing in extending the A320s.
Speaker Change: And we're also investing in the ramp up of domestic first class. So that's all embedded in the guide. The remaining 15%, you know, percent of the CapEx is associated with non-aircraft. So Tom, to your point, you know, think technology, think airports, ground equipment, those are where those dollars are going.
Thank you. Thank you.
Scott Group: Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolf Research. Please go ahead.
Scott Group: Hey, thanks. Good morning. I just want to make sure I heard right.
Scott Group: Is it that the with the GTF issue that aircraft on the ground goes up in 26 and then potentially up again in 27? Is that right? And then any idea like when this is going to fully behind us as an issue?
Yeah, so thanks for the
Scott Group: We tried to give you guys some color just on how burdensome this is to JetBlue financially, which we've highlighted all the math on slide 15. As a reminder, we had 11 aircraft on the ground in 2024. In the guide that we're providing for 2025 today, we have mid to high teens.
Scott Group: As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we believe we are likely approaching the peak in the next year or two.
So we continue to work.
Scott Group: Constructively with Pratt & Whitney to gain further color, quite frankly, on 26 and beyond. Obviously, there are a lot of inputs that can materially impact the number of aircraft that we have on the ground, everything from, you know, Pratt & Whitney's supply chain and to their shop capacity. So, you know, it does continue to remain pretty fluid. But the next year or two, we believe that we'll be approaching the peak.
Thank you very much. Have a great day.
Oh, crap.
Scott Group: And then I'm guessing you can't say too much because you haven't announced anything yet, but any thoughts on timing for an NEA replacement? And just is that?
Scott Group: Part of Jet Forward, or would that be incremental, Jet Forward, just how you think about NEA.
Speaker Change: Thanks for the question. So we're having conversations with a number of carriers right now to discuss the potential for
Speaker Change: The judge in Massachusetts obviously laid out a framework that would be acceptable under at least the prior administration, so that's what we're looking at, but there's nothing to announce now. In terms of what's in JetForward, there's a very small amount of money associated with potential partnerships, but nothing in a very meaningful way.
and the
Thank you guys. Appreciate it.
Transcription by Trans-Expert at Fiverr.com
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Michael Linenberg: Good morning. Marty, you withdrew from 15 cities, you redeployed 20% of your capacity. How have you seen the mix change, corporate versus discretionary as a result of those changes? And has there been a meaningful change to the booking curve, given the fact that maybe a large percentage or a greater percentage of your customers are now booking further out? Can you just talk about some of the dynamics around that?
Your mix and maybe how you sell the product.
Speaker Change: Hey, Mike, thanks for the question. First thing I'll say is
Speaker Change: on a macro level, it is getting tougher and tougher to do business leisure mix.
Speaker Change: Uh post COVID. Because we have the great mix of leisure in the middle who customers who say they're on business. They take it like they're on leisure more so. So it's less clear than it once was. What I will say is we've seen no significant change to the business mix that we have. And frankly, I think that's part of the reason why the city that we closed actually weren't working for us because we're carrying a lot of great leisure customers
Speaker Change: Minneapolis, San Antonio. And we really weren't penetrating the business market. So we've seen no significant change to the booking curve or the business leisure mix through that.
Speaker Change: I think I'd just add as well, if you look at Q1 RASM, as a leisure carrier, we obviously experience, you know, a different sort of period given the trough that it is, even when you adjust for that Easter shift. In the deck, we also have the slide that lays out the timing of the network announcements. And there was a number of really meaningful Northeast changes made in the late October, November timeframe from a capacity standpoint. These are all
Speaker Change: This isn't a linear plan and it's going to take some time for these markets to mature.
Speaker Change: Great. And then just my second, you know, as we think about timing around first class, Ursula, I think I heard you that some of the CapEx this year is going to be tied to the installment of first class. Will JetBlue be in a position to start selling late 2025 first class or, you know, is that, you know, first quarter 2026 when you can start selling the first class product? Thanks for taking my questions.
Speaker Change: Hey, Mike, I'll take that one. So there's some CAPEX coming this year, which is basically the beginning of the process through seat design, certification, etc. But the first install is actually going to be in 2026. So there'll be no revenue benefit to speak of in 2025. And by the way, that is exactly how it's laid out in the phasing of JetForward.
Great. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Catherine O'Brien with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Speaker Change: So what I say is, if you look at our corporate demand right now, the last two or three quarters we've been sending records as far as
The amount of money we're getting from our corporate accounts.
Speaker Change: That being the case, corporate is still a really small part of JetBlue's revenue base.
Speaker Change: You know, we're talking nine, you know, nine digit number, a low nine digit number. So it's not a gigantic number. We are seeing great numbers. But I think again, looking at our network and looking at where we're flying, and I think looking at our frequencies, you know, with the network as it exists, you know, we don't see ourselves as being a big corporate carrier. And I don't think it's been big enough for us to notice significant difference on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.
Speaker Change: Got it. And then maybe just, Ursula, if you don't mind, one more on the GTF. I just want to confirm, I don't think you're begging in any kind of compensation from Pratt and to your Outlook.
Speaker Change: But, you know, when do you think you'll reach a settlement on those 2024, you know, damages or however you want to put it? And what form does that take? You know, is it going to be something we're going to be able to notice on the cash flow statement? And then, you know, I know you've already filled out a couple of questions on this, but...
Speaker Change: and I don't want to get too myopic, but when you're saying one to two years from now on the peak, does that imply the peak is sometime, you know, January 28th, 2026 or later? Just any color on the GTF questions there would be really helpful. Thanks.
Yeah, morning, Katie. So
Transcription by Trans-Expert at Fiverr.com
Speaker Change: The situation with Pratt & Whitney continues to be pretty fluid. Obviously, as we've highlighted today, it's a very material impact to our business.
Speaker Change: The Settlement Negotiations are taking a while, quite frankly, because of the materiality to the business, we want to ensure that we settle with something that is fair and acceptable. So I don't have any timing on that, it's a work in progress.
Speaker Change: In regards to your last question, just about the peak, I mean, when I say within the next year or two, I mean, that means that we hit peak, quite frankly, and, you know,
between now and 2027. And so
Speaker Change: Again, we work consistently and fluidly with Pratt, and so there are things that could accelerate this, and so we're watching it very closely.
Thanks. We appreciate the moving target.
The End
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Ravi Shankar with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Ravi Shankar: Great. Thanks, everyone. Some of your mainline peers obviously highlighted strength in transatlantic demand in the first quarter, which, as you pointed out, is going to seasonally weak period. Can you talk about kind of what you guys are seeing there and potential for upside through the summer as well?
Ravi Shankar: Thanks, Robbie. I say, first of all, the Atlantic is still on ramp for us. I mean, we added we added new cities and in 24, we've announced new cities for 25, new routes for 25. So I think I look at our growth, the Atlantic is partially being strengthened, partially being ramped. So I don't want to get too
Ravi Shankar: aggressive as far as how we describe it. You know, most important thing for us is continued growth of yield in mint cabin. If you look at the configuration of the airplanes,
Ravi Shankar: We are very heavily MIT focused. It is absolutely a fantastic product. I really think it is the best product across the Atlantic. And from that perspective, that's where we would like to see the growth and we're really seeing great growth as far as MIT yields. So, we're very optimistic about the results as the network exists right now.
Ravi Shankar: I'll also say that we deferred almost all of our 321 deliveries, transatlantic 321 deliveries into 2030.
Ravi Shankar: I'd say you have more or less roughly what you see is what you get right now. We'll continue to tweak that network and continue to move plans between.
Ravi Shankar: The Atlantic and domestic summer to winter, but we're really happy with the choice to fly there. We're happy with our results and we think it's going to be a nice profit source for us.
Unknown Speaker
Speaker Change: Thanks for the color and maybe the follow up. I just want to confirm the 95 million outperformance in revenue capture initiatives for 2024. Is that all just move forward from future periods, which obviously is also very impressive? Or are you seeing pockets of potential strength or upside, which may end up even upsizing the target over time?
Unknown Speaker
Speaker Change: So, as far as how we look at it right now, it does look all to be move forward. A lot of us keep watching that going forward, but we've got pretty good visibility as far as things like preferred seating and the Blue Basic, and it does look like move forward.
Speaker Change: I'm not saying at some point that won't grow, and hopefully as we grow, we'll see that grow in general. But fundamentally, we're very excited that this has come forward as it has. And frankly, I'm optimistic about all the initiatives that are forward, not just the ones that we've already launched in 24. So we're actually very excited.
Speaker Change: Again, we have even more just launching today, so we're actually very excited about that.
Transcription by Trans-Expert at Fiverr.com
Very good. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Asabi Site with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Unknown Speaker Okay. Unknown Speaker
Speaker Change: Marty, can I ask, you mentioned, you know, pressure in the Northeast and Florida, but I think to Tom's question, you also kind of noted Florida capacity is down year over year, it's competitive capacity. And it seems like that's the case in Orlando, too. I was wondering if you could provide a little bit more color, you know, which cities or routes you're seeing
Speaker Change: kind of competitive pressures that you called out in like the Northeast and Florida.
Speaker Change: I'm not going to give a lot of color on that. I mean, clearly, from a competitive capacity perspective, the most competitive capacity pressure has been in Boston. But, you know, in general, I'm not, you know, yes, in Lauderdale, in Boston,
Speaker Change: In Orlando, the trends are actually good. I think some of the other cities, Palm Beach, Tampa, not as good, but I don't look at any of them as really sticking out like significantly other than Boston.
Speaker Change: That's helpful. Thank you. And just on the kind of fleet plan, Ursula, it looks like, you know, some of the A220s that you would thought might come in 2026 are shifted out. I was
Speaker Change: Curious what kind of drove that and and just on that investment question is the investment in premium products on the capex meaningful or is that just
Speaker Change: Just part of the kind of aircraft and not really meaningful.
Unknown Speaker
Speaker Change: Yeah, good morning, Savi. You know, the aircraft order books have been really fluid with delays and such, so we just adjusted our delivery schedule to reflect the most recent timing information from the Airbus. So, to your point, there were a few puts and takes between 25 and 26.
Speaker Change: I will mention, as you look at the overarching JetBlue Aircraft order book, we've talked a lot about Pratt & Whitney today, and within the next one to two years hitting the peak AOG. And I do just want to remind everyone, at some point, this situation will become a tailwind, and we will get airplanes back.
Speaker Change: lines up pretty well in terms of when we think we're going to get aircraft back due to the AOG issue. In regards to your last question around catbacks.
You know, the investment into
Speaker Change: Domestic First Class. That investment is going to be approximately $400 million over the next few years, and a small portion of that is included in the 2025 guide, as Marty mentioned, just for the startup of the ramp of the program.
Speaker Change: But I do want to remind everyone, I mean, between the domestic first class as well as the A320 extensions, I mean, these are, you know, very accretive, ROI positive, and in a timely manner. So I feel good about the investments that we're making.
Makes sense. Appreciate the call. Thank you.
Transcription by Trans-Expert at Fiverr.com
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Tom Waterwitz with UBS Financial. Please go ahead.
Tom Waterwitz: Yeah, good morning. And thanks for the question. I wanted to circle back a little bit to I think where Jamie kicked off the q&a just asking about RASM. You know, it seems to me that one of the big concerns is just your 1Q RASM outlook looks a fair bit weaker than the industry.
Speaker Change: Marty, what's the framework? Would you expect like 2Q or second half for the RASM performance for JetBlue to kind of get back in line with what we see for the broader industry? Or how do you think about the framework for that to be the case?
Marty: Well, Tom, thanks for the question. So first let's talk about the sequential numbers that we're flashing right now. Again, we're very happy with the fourth quarter overperformance, and we talked about that being very focused on
Really good results in the peak.
As you sequence into first quarter.
Marty: If you look at the historical trend of fourth quarter to first quarter RASM, and you go we've got 12 years worth of this data, we're actually above that normal trending. So what we're producing in first quarter of 25 is actually higher than you would normally see for that time period.
Marty: and I attribute a lot of that to Jet Forward. I will say, versus the rest of the industry, we do face a competitive capacity headwind.
Speaker Change: I think if you look at the big four, they're all facing
Marty: Competitive Capacity Numbers that are under 1%, some of them like 0.3, 0.4%.
You know, there's actually negative.
Marty: Our competitive capacity number is 3%. So I think looking at the headwinds that we're seeing in first quarter, I feel great about where we stand as far as RASM given all the things working against us, and I give a lot of credit to Jet Forward for the initiatives we've laid out already.
Marty: With respect to the improvements across the rest of the year, obviously the headwind we get in first quarter from Easter comes right back as a tailwind in second quarter. So that point and a half bad guy in the first will come back as a point and a half good guy in the second.
Marty: And I think I want to be clear, as we go through the year, we're not making any big assumption about competitive capacity coming down. There's no, back to the point I said to Jamie in the very beginning, there's no sort of a secret assumption that competitive capacity goes back down to 1% or 0.5%, I think it is 0.4% right now.
Marty: We're basically looking at the industry as it stands right now.
Marty: A lot of this is just execution of the plan as we've laid it out, and I think what we've seen so far as far as the ramping of Jet Forward, how we've seen the network changes take, and I think we were especially happy with what happened in the fourth quarter.
Marty: with places like Islip where, you know, and with the demand, we were able to drive during the peak in the market. Yeah, Islip's a market that was 25 years served by one of our big competitors to Florida and had success there very, very quickly, especially in the peak. So I feel very bullish about Jet Ford as it goes forward. I just want to stress there's no, there are no numbers games as far as, you know, we need some sort of a big industry change to get the three to six.
That is core of stuff we can control.
The End.
Speaker Change: Okay, yeah, great. Thanks. And for the follow-up question, just wanted to ask about...
Speaker Change: How we think about the kind of key levers and potential timing to get to free cash break even, you know, would would seem like this here potentially next year you'd still be looking at a fairly significant use of cash. So what I wanted to see if you could kind of multi your offering thoughts about is that more so driven by a cap X reduction that might come in. [inaudible]
Speaker Change: 2627, or is it just a matter of kind of keep going on jet forward and get the operating margin up?
Thank you.
Thanks for the question, Tom.
We executed.
Speaker Change: In aircraft deferral last year, it paved the way for us.
Speaker Change: to execute on JetForward and get the business healthy again and get us to consistent profitability, which is the number one priority. Number two is then getting the free cash flow positive. And I do feel like with the deferral and the way the order book lays out and just with the expected progression of JetForward, there is a means to get to positive free cash flow within the timing of the JetForward program.
and the PhilanthroPAC.
Thank you.
Great, thank you.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Steve Trent with Citi. Please go ahead.
Steve Trent: Good morning, everybody, and thanks very much for taking my questions.
Speaker Change: If I could follow up on the alliance question, I think Scott maybe asked earlier, great color on what you said for how you're thinking about the US, but what about, you know, potential alliances overseas, sort of existing ones that are in place and, and maybe any new opportunities given.
Steve Trent: You know, some of the Latin American airlines today are going through, you know, some gyrations.
Speaker Change: Hi Steve, thanks for the question. Well first I guess it's worth mentioning we have 52...
Speaker Change: Either 52 or 53 Alliance Platinums across the world, including a lot of international areas.
Speaker Change: I think we're especially lucky that, you know, New York is a very, very important gateway for international carriers, and we provide a lot of connecting lift there. So if you're not aligned with
Speaker Change: One of the other airlines there, you know, we're a great partner as far as getting access to the interior U.S. where the fares tend to be higher.
Speaker Change: And we continue to grow that portfolio even as we negotiate with domestic carriers. We just added British Airways in, I think, the third quarter of this year.
Speaker Change: I think there's opportunities there. We're certainly not taking your eye off the ball on that type of partnership while we work on what might make sense for us on a domestic partnership.
Speaker Change: Okay, I appreciate it, Marty. And for my follow up, I recall, you guys are offering, you know, some early exits for some of your older pilots. And I'm guessing this is kind of a fairly small piece of the pie in terms
Speaker Change: of your labor costs, and there would not be, you know, a significant cash event on the back of these packages that you'd offer. Thank you.
Speaker Change: No, thanks. Obviously, looking forward to offering some early retirement for our pilots. I think it's a win-win for JetBlue and for some of our pilots who are ready to pursue something after they retire. So it continues to be a focus on how do we manage some of our elevated labor costs in a world where we have as many aircraft on the ground that we have right now with the Pratt & Whitney issue.
And there will be no major cash outflow, not material.
Joanna Geraghty: And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our question and answer session and I will now turn the call over to Joanna for closing comments.
Joanna Geraghty: Thanks for joining us today. Very happy to answer your questions. You know, when we launched Jet Forward in July, we came out with a commitment to a 2025 year where we were breakeven or better from an operating margin perspective. And I'm so pleased that the team is maintaining those commitments that we set out to do. We've got great momentum, really great progress on reliability, beat costs every quarter in 2024 last year. And since launching Jet Forward, we've outperformed
on our revenue guidance as well.
Joanna Geraghty: This is a multi-year strategy. It is not linear. And many of these programs start ramping in 2025, whether that's Even More, which launched today, the Premier Card, which is launching at the end of the month, or even our domestic first class, which launches next year. So we have a lot happening. And there'll be a number of puts and takes through the quarter. So our focus is on the long term. Our focus is on hitting that annual expectation of break even or better, and we are off to a promising start.
Joanna Geraghty: If you look at the midpoint of our 25 guide of a half a point, you can expect another five to six points of margin from jet forward in 26 and 27. And then we've got the Pratt & Whitney headwind of three points, which will become a tailwind as we cycle through that particular situation. So all in all, when you look at jet forward, coupled with Pratt & Whitney, you should expect nine points of operating margin improvement from 2025 on.
Joanna Geraghty: And keeping our eye on the ball, which is the annual guide of breakeven or better for operating margins. Thanks for your time today, and we look forward to talking with you on the next call.
Speaker Change: Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.