Q4 2024 Liberty Global PLC Earnings Call
Speaker Change: Good morning ladies and gentlemen and thank you for standing by.
Welcome to Liberty Global's fourth quarter 2024 investor call.
Speaker Change: This call and the associated webcast are property of Liberty Global and any redistribution, retransmission, or rebroadcast of this call or webcast in any form without express written consent of Liberty Global is strictly prohibited.
Speaker Change: At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Today's formal presentation materials can be found under the Investor Relations section of Liberty Global's website at libertyglobal.com. After today's formal presentation, instructions will be given for a question and answer session.
Speaker Change: Page 2 of the slides details the company's Safe Harbor Statement regarding forward-looking statements. Page 3 of the slides details the company's Safe Harbor Statement regarding forward-looking
Operator: Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including the company's expectations with respect to its outlook and future growth prospects and other information and statements that are not historical fact. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements. These risks include those detailed in Liberty Global's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its most recently filed forms, 10-Q and 10-K, as amended. Liberty Global disclaims any obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements to reflect any change in its expectations or in the conditions on which any such statement is based. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mike Fries.
Speaker Change: Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including the company's expectations with respects to its outlook and future growth prospects, and other information and statements that are not historical fact.
Speaker Change: These forward-looking statements involve certain risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements.
Speaker Change: These risks include those detailed in Liberty Global's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its most recently filed forms, 10-Q and 10-K, as amended.
Speaker Change: Liberty Global disclaims any obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements to reflect any change in its expectations or in the conditions on which any such statement is based. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mike Fries.
Mike Fries: All right. Thank you. Welcome everyone to our year-end investor call. It's great to have you join us today. I've got the core team on the line as usual, so after prepared remarks, we'll get right to your questions. As a reminder, we always post a slide deck, which has really good data and follows the narrative that Charlie and I will deliver right now. I'm going to start on slide 3. Most of you know who we are, and you know what we do. It's always good, I think, to start with the big picture, especially now. 12 months ago on this call, we presented a plan to generate and importantly deliver value to our shareholders. That's exactly what we did in 2024, with over $4 billion in shareholder remuneration delivered on a market cap of $7 billion just 12 months ago.
Mike Fries: All right, thank you and welcome everyone to our year-end investor call. It's great to have you join us today.
Mike Fries: I've got the core team on the line as usual, so after prepared remarks, we'll get right to your questions. And as a reminder, we always...
post-slide deck which has
Speaker Change: Really good data and follows the narrative that Charlie and I will deliver right now So I'm going to start on slide three most of you know who we are and you know what we do
Speaker Change: But it's always good, I think, to start with the big picture, especially now, you know, 12 months ago on this call, we presented a plan to generate and importantly deliver value to our shareholders. That's exactly what we did in 2024.
Speaker Change: with over $4 billion in shareholder remuneration delivered on a market cap of $7 billion just 12 months ago.
Mike Fries: As we'll talk about today, this remains our primary focus. To kick us off, I think the chart here on this slide is the simplest, least complex way to understand the business of Liberty Global today. We consider ourselves to be a dynamic team of veteran operators and investors committed to generating and delivering shareholder value through the strategic management of three platforms. Liberty Telecom consists of our four remaining European telcos, you know these well, in the UK, Ireland, Belgium, and the Netherlands, serving 80 million fixed and mobile connections and generating $22 billion of aggregate revenue and around $8 billion of aggregate EBITDA. I'll talk about our strategic plans for growing and ultimately crystallizing the value of these fixed mobile champions in just a moment.
Speaker Change: And as we'll talk about today, this remains our primary focus. So to kick us off, I think the chart here on this slide is the simplest, least complex way to understand the business of Liberty Global today.
Speaker Change: We consider ourselves to be a dynamic team of veteran operators and investors committed to generating and delivering shareholder value through the strategic management of three platforms.
Speaker Change: Liberty Telecom consists of our four remaining European telcos, you know these well, in the UK, Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands, serving 80 million fixed and mobile connections and generating 22 billion of aggregate revenue and around 8 billion of aggregate EBITDA.
Speaker Change: I'll talk about our strategic plans for growing and ultimately crystallizing the value of these fixed mobile champions in just a moment.
Mike Fries: Liberty Growth represents our $3.1 billion portfolio of investments in technology, media, sports, and infrastructure. We've grown this business substantially over the last 5 years. We've also been really disciplined about exiting positions at good returns, repurposing that capital both into Liberty Telecom and additional growth investments. Liberty Services on the right is a hidden gem. Over the last several years, we have successfully transitioned over two-thirds of our central employee base into profitable revenue-generating activities in tech and financial services. These are valuable operating divisions with long-term contracts, nearly $600 million of annual revenue, third-party partnerships, and really viable strategies to continue growing and ultimately monetizing these businesses for the benefit of shareholders. Why make a big deal of this, you might ask?
Speaker Change: Liberty Growth represents our $3.1 billion portfolio of investments in technology, media, sports, and infrastructure.
Speaker Change: We've grown this business substantially over the last five years, but we've also been really disciplined about exiting positions at good returns and then repurposing that capital both into Liberty Telecom and additional growth investments. And then Liberty Services on the right is a hidden gem.
Speaker Change: Over the last several years, we have successfully transitioned over two-thirds
of our central employee base.
Speaker Change: into profitable, revenue-generating activities in tech and financial services. These are valuable operating divisions with long-term contracts, nearly $600 million of annual revenue.
third-party partnerships.
Speaker Change: really viable strategies to continue growing and ultimately monetizing these businesses for the benefit of shareholders. So why make a big deal of this you might ask? Well when your stock is $11 and you have 350 million shares outstanding, you know we become hyper aware of the fact that even small opportunities like this
Mike Fries: Well, when your stock is $11 and you have 350 million shares outstanding, we become hyper-aware of the fact that even small opportunities like this can move the needle. Is a great segue to the next slide. As I just mentioned, on our year-end call last February, we announced a clear strategic pivot. We outlined a game plan that at that time focused on maximizing the intrinsic value of our assets and delivering that value to shareholders. Not surprisingly, the most important initiatives, which are summarized here on slide 4, revolved around Liberty Telecom, where the gap in value and the upside to shareholders was and remains the largest. The big headline was, of course, our commitment to spin off 100% of Sunrise, our Swiss subsidiary, to Liberty Global shareholders before year-end. The logic and timing of that transaction was compelling. Sunrise operates in a rational market.
can move the needle.
Speaker Change: which is a great segue to the next slide. And as I just mentioned, on our year-end call last February, we renounced a clear strategic pivot, right? We outlined a game plan.
But at that time.
Speaker Change: focused on maximizing the intrinsic value of our assets and delivering that value to shareholders. Not surprisingly, the most important initiatives, which are summarized here on slide 4, revolved around Liberty Telecom, where the gap in value and the upside to shareholders was and remains the largest.
Speaker Change: The big headline was, of course, our commitment to spin off 100% of Sunrise, our Swiss subsidiary to Liberty Global shareholders before year-end.
Speaker Change: The logic and timing of that transaction was compelling. Sunrise operates in a rational market. The company had been delivering solid operating performance, driven principally by strong free cash flow and the potential for sizable dividends.
Mike Fries: The company had been delivering solid operating performance, driven principally by strong free cash flow and the potential for sizable dividends. We saw strong local investor demand to own the number one challenger to Swisscom. Now, trust me, this was a complex transaction, but these are the things that this management team really excels at. In fact, the spin-off was completed on time and effectively delivered to our shareholders a $9 per share tax-free dividend, was at the time an $18 stock. We did that by spinning off 20% of our proportion in EBITDA. I'll let that sink in. Now, by all accounts, this was a success. Sunrise stock is trading well, with 70% of the ADSs now converted into local Swiss shares. We've learned a really valuable lesson on how to unlock value.
and we saw strong local investor demand.
to own the number one challenger to Swisscom.
Speaker Change: Now trust me, this was a complex transaction, but these are the things that this management team really excels at. In fact, the spinoff was completed on time and effectively delivered to our shareholders a $9 per share tax-free dividend, was at the time an $18 stock.
Speaker Change: And we did that by spinning off 20% of our proportion at EBITDA.
Speaker Change: I'll let that sink in. Now by all accounts, this was a success. Sunrise Stock is trading well with 70% of the ADS is now converted into local Swiss shares and we've learned a really valuable lesson on how to unlock value.
Mike Fries: We also announced last year our intention to create a fixed NetCo in the UK market to accelerate and fund a portion of our fiber build-out and to provide a vehicle for what we expect will be a rapidly consolidating infrastructure market. I'm happy to report that we are making significant progress on this front. The operational and financial perimeters of the UK NetCo have been established. They represent around 16 million homes and over GBP 1 billion of EBITDA. More importantly, as of last week, we are in receipt of proposals from a handful of the strongest infrastructure investors in the business who have indicated an interest in participating with us in what will be, I think, the only viable long-term competitor to BT Openreach. More on that to come.
Speaker Change: We also announced last year our intention to create a fixed netco in the UK market to accelerate and fund a portion of our fibre build-out and to provide a vehicle for what we expect will be a rapidly consolidating infrastructure market. I'm happy to report that we are making significant progress on this front.
Speaker Change: The operational and financial perimeters of the UK NECO have been established. They represent around 16 million homes and over 1 billion pounds of EBITDA.
Speaker Change: But more importantly, as of last week, we are in receipt of proposals from a handful of the strongest infrastructure investors in the business.
Speaker Change: who have indicated an interest in participating with us and what will be, I think, the only viable long-term competitor to BTO from reach. So more on that to come. And then finally, we discussed the opportunity.
Mike Fries: Finally, we discussed the opportunity to focus our attention and resources on the Benelux region. While the prospect of a combined Dutch and Belgian operation is intriguing, we spent most of our time last year ensuring that each business is achieving its strategic and financial potential individually. This included hiring a new CEO for VodafoneZiggo, Stephen van Rooyen, who hit the ground running in September. In Belgium, where we've already separated the network from Telenet, we've made substantial progress with the Belgian government to rationalize the fiber market through a network sharing and collaboration agreement between Wyre, that's our NetCo, Telenet, and Proximus. Even prior to the conclusion of that transaction, our treasury team just closed on a EUR 500 million standalone facility for Wyre's fiber rollout. That just supports the attractiveness of this market opportunity.
Speaker Change: to focus our attention and resources on the Benelux region. And while the prospect of a combined Dutch and Belgian operation is intriguing, we spent most of our time last year ensuring that each business
is achieving its strategic and financial potential individually.
and this included hiring a new CEO for Proto Bonzigo.
Speaker Change: Stephen Van Rooyen, who hit the ground running in September. And in Belgium, where we've already separated the network from Telenet, we've made substantial progress with the Belgian government to rationalize the fiber market through a network sharing and collaboration agreement between WIRE, that's our netco, Telenet and Proximus.
Speaker Change: Even prior to the inclusion of that transaction, our Treasury team just closed on a €500 million stand-alone facility for wires fiber rollout. That just supports the attractiveness of this market opportunity.
Mike Fries: In addition to our objectives for Liberty Telecom, we also announced a series of other key goals last year, and those are listed on slide 5, that we knew would anchor our value creation strategies. At the Liberty Global level, we committed to buying back up to 10% of our shares outstanding, and we spent approximately $700 million doing that. As a reminder, we have now spent roughly $15 billion over the last 8 years to acquire over 60% of our shares. Obviously, we believe in the multiplier effect of stock buybacks. For example, if you owned 1% of Liberty Global in 2017, you ended up with 2.5% of Sunrise at the spin-off date. We also committed to refinance all of our 2027 maturities in the Liberty Telecom debt silos, and we did that with over $3 billion in refis at Vodafone and VMO2.
Speaker Change: Now, in addition to our objectives for Liberty Telecom, we also announced a series of other key goals last year, and those are listed on slide five, that we knew would anchor our value creation strategies.
Speaker Change: At the Liberty Global level, we committed to buying back up to 10% of our shares outstanding, and we spent approximately $700 million doing that. As a reminder, we have now spent roughly $15 billion over the last eight years to acquire over 60% of our shares.
Speaker Change: Now, obviously, we believe in the multiplier effect of stock buyback. For example, if you own 1% of Liberty Global in 2017, you ended up with 2.5% of Sunrise at the spinoff date.
Speaker Change: We also committed to refinance all of our 2027 maturities in the LibreTelecom debt silos, and we did that with over $3 billion in refis at Vodafone and VMO2. Charlie will get into more detail, but our balance sheet remains rock solid.
Mike Fries: Now Charlie will get into more detail, but our balance sheet remains rock solid. We achieved all 14 of our financial guidance metrics, with the exception of one, which is related to VodafoneZiggo revenue, where we had guided to growth but came in flat due to slower mobile net adds and a lower mobile handset sale number. To implement our strategic goals, we also committed to sell assets amounting to $500 million to $1 billion in 2024. That number came in at $900 million, and together with free cash flow, helped fund the buyback and de-leveraging at Sunrise to maximize the equity value of the spin for shareholders. We articulated a clear preference to prioritize future investments in Liberty Growth around scale-based platforms with tailwinds.
Speaker Change: And we achieved all 14 of our financial guidance metrics with the exception of one, which is related to Vodafone Zygo revenue, where we had guided to growth but came in flat due to slower mobile net ads and a lower mobile handset sale number.
Speaker Change: To implement our strategic goals, we also committed to sell assets amounting to $500 million to $1 billion in 2024. That number came in at $900 million and together with free cash flow, helped fund the buyback and deleveraging at Sunrise to maximize the equity value of the spin for shareholders.
Speaker Change: And we articulated a clear preference to prioritize future investments in Liberty Growth around scale-based platforms with tailwinds and of course the best example here is the acquisition of our controlling interest in Formula E, which I'll talk about in just a moment.
Mike Fries: Of course, the best example here is the acquisition of our controlling interest in Formula E, which I will talk about in just a moment. Here's the kicker. Despite hitting the mark on these strategic goals in 2024, Liberty Global shares pro forma for the spin off of Sunrise remain significantly undervalued. I will walk you through how we see it on slide 6, which lays out a pretty simple some of the parts analysis. Some investors like it when we just get down to the brass tacks, as they say, and this is how we run the business. Here you go. The first key point to make on this chart is that we think our stock today assigns 0 equity value to Liberty Telecom. How do we get to that conclusion?
Speaker Change: Now, here's the kicker, despite hitting the mark on the strategic goals in 2024.
Speaker Change: Liberty Global shares, pro forma for the spin-off of Sunrise, remain significantly undervalued. I'll walk you through how we see it on slide 6, which lays out a pretty simple sum of the parts analysis. Some investors like it when we just get down to the brass tacks, as they say, and this is how we run the business. So here you go.
Speaker Change: The first key point to make on this chart is that we think our stock today assigns zero equity value to Liberty Telecom. How do we get to that conclusion? Well, the first three columns here show our cash balance and the combined fair market value of our Liberty Growth portfolio.
Mike Fries: Well, the first three columns here show our cash balance and the combined fair market value of our Liberty Growth portfolio, and that adds up to about $15 per share. We assume an appropriate reduction for corporate of $4 per share, which we will dive into later. With that, you essentially get to a market price of $11 per share. What is the right value for Liberty Telecom, the blue bar there? There are many ways to approach this, as you know all too well. The Sunrise spin demonstrated the potential uplift in trading multiples when you find the right transaction or market opportunity. Case in point, as part of Liberty Global, Sunrise traded essentially at our combined and current multiple of 5.5x EBITDA. As a listed company in Switzerland, Sunrise trades at 8x EBITDA or a 7% to 8% dividend yield.
Speaker Change: And that adds up to about $15 per share. And then we assume an appropriate reduction for corporate of $4 per share, which we'll dive into later. But with that, you essentially get to a market price of $11 per share.
Speaker Change: So what is the right value for Liberty Telecom? The blue bar there.
Speaker Change: There are many ways to approach this, as you know all too well, but the sunrise spin demonstrated the potential uplift in trading multiples when you find the right transaction or market opportunity.
Speaker Change: Case in point, as part of Liberty Global, Sunrise traded essentially at our combined and current multiple of 5.5 times EBITDA. As a listed company in Switzerland, Sunrise trades at 8 times EBITDA or a 7-8% dividend yield.
Mike Fries: Now, assuming every operating company should be worth 8x, that might be ambitious. If you assume a conservative 1 multiple uplift in the value of Liberty Telecom, say from 5.5 to 6.5x EBITDA, by the way, which is the EU telco sector average, and where most analysts have us, you arrive at $14 per share for Liberty Telecom alone. Now, we've certainly shown you higher numbers for Liberty Telecom in the past, given where we're trading today, we're happy to be conservative. Adding all that up gets you to $25 per share for Liberty Global, that's before assigning any equity value for Liberty Services. We're not putting a number on that today, I can tell you it's greater than zero. Lastly, this compares to average analyst price targets of around $14.60.
Now assuming every operating company
Speaker Change: should be worth eight times, that might be ambitious, right? But if you assume a conservative.
Speaker Change: one multiple uplift in the value of Liberty Telecom, say from five and a half to six and a half times EBITDA, by the way, which is the EU telco sector average, and where most analysts have us, then you arrive at $14 per share for Liberty Telecom alone.
Speaker Change: Now, we've certainly shown you higher numbers for Liberty Telecom in the past, but given where we're trading today, we're happy to be conservative.
Speaker Change: Adding all that up gets you to $25 per share for Liberty Global, and that's before signing any equity value for Liberty Services. We're not putting a number on that today, but I can tell you it's greater than zero. And then lastly, this compares to average analyst price targets of around $14.60.
Mike Fries: Now, one of the big differences is the deduction of corporate, which is typically twice the number we're using, but completely neglects the fact that these net central costs are nearly 100% variable OpEx and should be valued on an EBITDA multiple. More on that from Charlie. Now, at this point, the question you should be asking is: How do we intend to continue bridging this gap? We try to address that on slide 7 with a summary of our strategic plan for 2025 and beyond. As you just saw, there is significant upside to improving the real or perceived value of Liberty Telecom. Just 1 additional EBITDA multiple more than doubles our stock. Not surprisingly, we believe there will be opportunities to crystallize or monetize the value of Liberty Telecom's businesses over time.
Now, one of the big differences...
Speaker Change: is the deduction of corporate, which is typically twice the number we're using, but completely neglects the fact that these net central costs are nearly 100% variable OPEX and should be valued on an EBITDA multiple. More on that from Charlie. At this point, the question you should be asking is, how do we intend to continue bridging this gap?
Speaker Change: We'll try to address that on slide seven with a summary of our strategic plan for 2025 and beyond and as you just saw there is significant upside
Speaker Change: to improving the real or perceived value of Liberty Telecom. Just one additional EBITDA multiple more than doubles their stock. So, not surprisingly, we believe there will be opportunities to crystallize or monetize the value of Liberty Telecom's businesses over time.
Mike Fries: Like Sunrise, this could include spin-offs, although as many of you know, this decision is dependent on several tax, legal, and financial factors. We could also consider tracking stocks, IPOs, and, of course, we always remain open to M&A options. To achieve any of these, though, we need to pursue three tactical steps. Number 1, we have to continue to drive commercial momentum at the operating level. This is the primary objective of every local management team. They are all focused on expanding loyalty programs to reduce churn, promoting robust flanker brands to drive market share, realizing the benefits of digital and AI, accelerating B2B, and rolling out new revenue streams. Second, we will continue to creatively finance our fixed network infrastructure, particularly in the UK, Belgium, and Ireland, where our fiber plans are well underway.
Speaker Change: Like Sunrise, this could include spinoffs, although as many of you know, this decision is dependent on several tax, legal, and financial factors. We could also consider tracking stocks, IPOs, and of course, we always remain open to M&A options.
Speaker Change: To achieve any of these though, we need to pursue three tactical steps. Number one,
Speaker Change: we have to continue to drive commercial momentum at the operating level.
Speaker Change: This is the primary objective of every local management team. They are all focused on expanding loyalty programs to reduce churn, promoting robust flanker brands to drive market share, realizing the benefits of digital and AI, accelerating B2B and rolling out new revenue streams.
Second.
Speaker Change: We'll continue to creatively finance our fixed network infrastructure, particularly in the UK, Belgium, and Ireland, where our fiber plans are well underway. These infrastructure assets trade at higher multiples, attract a unique type of investor, and can absorb more leverage.
Mike Fries: These infrastructure assets trade at higher multiples, attract a unique type of investor, and can absorb more leverage than what we are typically seeing on ServCos. We want to take advantage of these factors, and we will. Third, our ability to achieve greater value recognition at Liberty Telecom will, to a large extent, be dependent on generating free cash flow, especially free cash flow that can be used for dividends. The Sunrise model demonstrated this clearly. As a result, We're squarely focused on achieving this goal over the next 24 to 36 months. Now moving to Liberty Growth, our plans take two forms. On the one hand, we recognize that many of the assets we own today are non-core, and as we demonstrated in 2024, can be highly accretive sources of cash for more strategic opportunities.
Speaker Change: than what we are typically seeing on surf coast. So we want to take advantage of these factors and we will. And third, our ability to achieve greater value recognition at Liberty Telecom will to a large extent be dependent on generating free cashflow.
Speaker Change: especially free cash flow that can be used for dividends. So the Sunrise model demonstrated this clearly. As a result...
Speaker Change: We're squarely focused on achieving this goal over the next 24 to 36 months.
Speaker Change: Now, moving to Liberty Growth, our plans take two forms. On the one hand...
Speaker Change: We recognize that many of the assets we own today are non-core and as we demonstrated in 2024, can be highly accretive sources of cash for more strategic opportunities. So as a result, we will continue to rotate capital into higher return liberty growth assets.
Mike Fries: As a result, we will continue to rotate capital into higher return Liberty Growth assets, prioritizing infrastructure, sports, and media, as well as into strategic Liberty Telecom transactions. Towards that end, we are committing today to sell between $500 million and $750 million of non-core assets in 2025. Finally, our cash balance of $2.2 billion is a significant strategic asset. Our primary use here will be for buybacks, deleveraging, and the investments described above. Specifically, we're committing to buying up to 10% of our shares outstanding in 2025 as we did last year, and we anticipate that our cash balance will be replenished with free cash flow and dividends from Liberty Telecom, asset sales, and infrastructure financing. To round it off, Charlie will talk about our Liberty Services platform and corporate spend in a moment. I'll just say, watch this space.
Speaker Change: prioritizing infrastructure, sports, and media, as well as into strategic Liberty Telecom transactions. Towards that end, we are committing today to sell between 500 million and 750 million of non-core assets in 2025.
Speaker Change: And then finally, our cash balance of $2.2 billion is a significant strategic asset. Our primary use here will be for buybacks, deleveraging, and the investments described above.
Speaker Change: Specifically, we're committing to buying up to 10% of our shares outstanding in 2025, as we did last year. And we anticipate that our cash balance will be replenished with free cash flow and dividends from Liberty Telecom, asset sales, and infrastructure financing.
Speaker Change: And to round it off, Charlie will talk about our Liberty Services platform and corporate spend in a moment. I'll just say watch this space.
Mike Fries: Both of these are expected to be meaningful contributors to our value creation narrative. Turning to the next slide, I'll just spend a minute on our Q4 operating results. You would have reviewed these already, we do have the opco leads on the call. The punchline here is that we're seeing steady or improved broadband results with continued fixed ARPU uplifts in most of our markets, we also saw a small pickup in postpaid mobile, particularly in the UK. Sticking with VMO2, the UK saw another strong broadband quarter at 12,000 net adds, supported by new homes in the nexfibre territory and really good base management. All of this despite aggressive alt net pricing and what looks like a flat broadband market overall.
Speaker Change: Both of these are expected to be meaningful contributors to our value creation narrative. Now, turning to the next slide.
Speaker Change: I'll just spend a minute on our Q4 operating results. You would have reviewed these already, and we do have the opcode leads on the call. The punchline here is that we're seeing steady or improved broadband results with continued fixed ARPU uplifts in most of our markets. And we also saw a small pickup in post-paid mobile, particularly in the UK.
Speaker Change: Sticking with VMO2, the UK saw another strong broadband quarter at 12,000 net ads.
Speaker Change: It was supported by new homes in the next fibre territory and really good base management. All of this despite aggressive alt net pricing and what looks like a flat broadband market overall. It was also the third straight quarter of fixed ARPU growth in the UK.
Mike Fries: It was also the 3rd straight quarter of fixed ARPU growth in the UK, reflecting materially better retention as a result of our digital and AI tools. VMO2 also saw a significant turnaround in postpaid mobile throughout the year. We lost nearly 200,000 subs in H1 of the year, and were essentially flat in H2 with a positive net add quarter in Q4. You can attribute this to two things. I think strong results from giffgaff, our flanker brand, and success in underpinning the premium position of O2. Now some quick remarks in Ireland. This is a small operation with largely stable results, but we want to start adding this to the narrative here.
Speaker Change: reflecting materially better retention as a result of our digital and AI tools.
Speaker Change: And VMO2 also saw a significant turnaround in post-pay mobile throughout the year. We lost nearly 200,000 subs in the first half of the year, and were essentially flat in the second half with a positive net-add quarter in Q4. And you contribute this to two things, I think. Strong results from GiffGaff, our Flanker brand, and success in underpinning the premium position of O2.
Speaker Change: Now some quick remarks in Ireland. This is a small operation with largely stable results, but we want to start adding this
Mike Fries: Virgin Media Ireland is the farthest along on the fiber transformation, with around half of our 1 million premises already upgraded and almost 50,000 fiber customers on our network, including Vodafone and Sky wholesale customers. Now while CapEx will remain elevated in 2025, we should be largely done with the build by the end of this year or early next year. Like many European telcos, the decline in CapEx should drive meaningful free cash flow over the long run. Turning to the Netherlands, we saw intense competition in the Dutch broadband market continue with losses, mostly price led in Q4. Now VodafoneZiggo remains focused on value over volume, with largely flat ARPU in the quarter. On the positive front, UEFA rights are driving uptake across different channels, including through Ziggo Sport.
Speaker Change: to the narrative here. Virgin Media Ireland is the farthest along on the fiber transformation with around half of our 1 million premises already upgraded. Almost 50,000 fiber customers on our network including Vodafone and Sky wholesale customers.
Speaker Change: Now while CapEx will remain elevated in 2025, we should be largely done with the bill by the end of this year or early next year, and like many European telcos, the decline in CapEx should drive meaningful free cash flow over the long run.
Turning to the Netherlands, we saw intense competition.
Speaker Change: In the Dutch broadband market continue with lossless, mostly price-led in Q4. Now, Vodafone Zygo remains focused on value over volume, with largely flat ARPU in the quarter. On the positive front, UEFA rights are driving uptake across different channels, including through Zygo Sport.
Mike Fries: The Dutch mobile market is more rational but has seen lots of price competition in the no-frills segment. Nonetheless, we have delivered stable net adds as the impact from B2B port out stabilized and FMC SIMs penetration continued to increase. Lastly, on Telenet, they returned to positive broadband net adds for the first time in 2 years in Q4, and that was underpinned by successful fixed mobile convergence campaigns, including the new BASE proposition, which is exceeding expectations. The fixed ARPU growth continued to be supported by the price rise earlier this year, and mobile postpaid decreased moderately in the quarter, driven by challenging market dynamics. Two more slides on Liberty Growth before I turn it over to Charlie.
Speaker Change: The Dutch mobile market is more rational, but has seen lots of price competition in the no-frills segment. Nonetheless, we have delivered stable net ads as the impact from B2B port outs stabilized and FMC-SIMS penetration continued to increase.
Speaker Change: They returned to positive broadband net ads for the first time in two years in the fourth quarter. That was underpinned by successful fixed mobile convergence campaigns, including the new BASE proposition, which is Exceeding Expectations.
Speaker Change: The fixed ARPU growth continued to be supported by the price rise earlier this year, and mobile post paid decreased moderately in the quarter driven by challenging market dynamics.
Mike Fries: Understandably, we get a lot of questions about the portfolio, and hopefully our disclosures this quarter and in future quarters will demonstrate that we are committed to providing greater transparency and information to you, especially as this becomes a bigger part of our valuation story. Towards that end, slide 9 provides two important pieces of data. First, on the left, you'll see our investment activity over the last 5 years in the aggregate. At the end of 2019, so 5 years ago, our investment assets totaled around $900 million in what we now call Liberty Growth. Between 2019 and the end of 2024, we invested an additional $2.4 billion in our tech media and infrastructure verticals, plus some strategic holdings. During that same period, however, we also exited investments that returned $1.2 billion to us, including dividends, with a weighted average IRR of 25%.
Charlie: So, two more slides on liberty growth before I turn it over to Charlie. Understandably.
Charlie: We get a lot of questions about the portfolio and hopefully our disclosures this quarter and in future quarters will demonstrate that we are committed to providing greater transparency and information to you, especially as this becomes a bigger part of our valuation story. Towards that end, slide nine provides two important pieces of data.
Charlie: First, on the left, you'll see our investment activity over the last five years in the aggregate. At the end of 2019, so five years ago, our investment assets totaled around $900 million in what we now call Liberty Growth.
Charlie: Between 2019 and the end of 2024, we invested an additional $2.4 billion in our tech, media, and infrastructure verticals, plus some strategic holdings.
Charlie: During that same period, however, we also exited investments that returned $1.2 billion to us, including dividends, with a weighted average IRR of 25%.
Mike Fries: This includes the good and the bad deals. This is a true measure of those disposals. That left us with net invested capital in the portfolio at the end of last year, 2024, of $2.1 billion, compared to a fair market value on our 10-K of $3.1 billion. That valuation, by the way, is independently reviewed by Deloitte and breaks down between tech media infrastructure, et cetera, as shown in the color legend at the bottom. We're sitting on $1 billion of unrealized gains in the portfolio today. I already mentioned that we intend to generate between $500 million and $750 million in sale proceeds this year, a significant portion of which will likely come from Liberty Growth. Liberty Growth is a diversified portfolio with investments in upwards of 70 different companies. I get that. That creates some complexity for you.
Charlie: Now this includes the good and the bad deals, so this is a true measure of those disposals.
Charlie: That left us with net invested capital in the portfolio at the end of last year, 2024, of $2.1 billion, compared to a fair market value in our $10K of $3.1 billion.
Charlie: That valuation, by the way, is independently reviewed by Deloitte and breaks down between tech, media, infrastructure, etc., as shown in the color legend at the bottom.
Charlie: So we're sitting on a billion dollars of unrealized gains in the portfolio today. I already mentioned that we intend to generate between $500 million and $750 million in sale proceeds this year.
Charlie: … a significant portion of which will likely come from liberty growth.
Charlie: Now, Liberty Growth is a diversified portfolio with investments in upwards of 70 different companies. I get that. That creates some complexity for you. But on the right-hand side, we make the important point that 75% of our portfolio resides in just seven investments.
Mike Fries: On the right-hand side, we make the important point that 75% of our portfolio resides in just seven investments, and we list those here. This includes three media holdings, Formula E, ITV, and TelevisaUnivision, three infrastructure investments, AtlasEdge, EdgeConneX, and nexfibre, and our stake in Vodafone. We're not discouraging you from focusing on the balance of our investments, but I do think it makes it simpler when we present it like this. These are the assets that you'll be hearing about, we'll be talking about, and that more often than not will be driving our returns. I'll end on a super high note.
Charlie: and we list those here. This includes three media holdings, Formula E, ITV, and Televisa Univision.
Charlie: three infrastructure investments, Atlas Edge, Edge Connects, and NexFiber, and our stake in Vodafone. Now we're not discouraging you from focusing on the balance of our investments, but I do think it makes it simpler when we present it like this. These are the assets that you'll be hearing about, we'll be talking about, and that more often than not will be driving our returns.
Mike Fries: I think everyone knows we increased our stake in Formula E to 66% last year when we bought out Warner Bros. Discovery, and I have to say, I couldn't be more excited about that transaction and where this championship is going. Slide 10 just hits a few of the key points, the key highlights, beginning on the top left with the car itself. When we first invested in Formula E, we made a bet on technology innovation, and that bet is paying off. The first-generation car topped out at 140 miles per hour and really couldn't drive very far. We are now in what we call the GEN3 Evo car, and it is a rocket ship. It has speeds capable of 200 miles per hour, and the car accelerates 30% faster than an F1 car, zero to 60 in just 1.82 seconds.
Charlie: Now, I'll end on a super high note. I think everyone knows we increased our stake in Formula E to 66% last year when we bought out Warner Brothers Discovery. And I have to say, I couldn't be more excited about that transaction and where this championship is going.
Charlie: Slide 10 just hits a few of the key points, the key highlights, beginning on the top left with the car itself.
Charlie: When we first invested in Formula E, we made a bet on technology innovation, and that bet is paying off.
Charlie: the first generation car topped out at 140 miles per hour and really couldn't drive very far.
Charlie: We are now in what we call the Gen 3 Evo car, and it is a rocket ship.
Charlie: It has speeds capable of 200 miles per hour and the car accelerates 30 percent faster than an F1 car 0 to 60 in just 1.82 seconds.
Mike Fries: We have the Gen4 car coming out in just 18 months' time, which aims to double the power. I think the point is that these cars are lightning-fast, no pun intended, and the racing is more and more exciting every year. As you can see on the top right, we already race in some of the most iconic cities in the world, places like São Paulo, Mexico City, Jeddah, Miami, Monaco, Tokyo, Shanghai, Jakarta, Berlin, and London. With a faster car and longer races, we expect to gain access to even more tracks and venues. Now, even though we've been net zero since day zero, this is all about the racing, right? It's no surprise to me, shouldn't be to you, that we've attracted some of the world's greatest racing brands, including Porsche, Jaguar, McLaren, Maserati, Nissan, Penske, Andretti, and others.
Charlie: And we have the Gen 4 car coming out in just 18 months' time, which aims to double the power. I think the point is that these cars are lightening fast, no pun intended, and the racing is more and more exciting every year.
Charlie: As you can see on the top right, we already race.
Charlie: in some of the most iconic cities in the world, places like Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Jeddah, Miami, Monaco, Tokyo, Shanghai, Jakarta, Berlin, and London. With a faster car and longer races, we expect to gain access to even more tracks and venues.
Charlie: Now, even though we've been net zero since day zero, this is all about the racing, right? It's no surprise to me, shouldn't be to you, that we've attracted some of the world's greatest racing brands, including Porsche, Jaguar, McLaren, Maserati, Nissan, Penske, Andretti, and others.
Mike Fries: They are part of this global championship because they see the future and the potential. By 2035, nearly 70% of global car sales are expected to be electric vehicles. We have an exclusive on this racing series with the FIA, who, by the way, are great partners of ours for many, many years to come. Finally, word is getting out. We are now at roughly 400 million fans globally, and that is growing 23%. You will also see on the bottom left that while there are two championships with bigger audiences today, F1 and MotoGP, neither is growing as fast. Remember, we are a very, very young championship, at least compared to Formula One, which is 75 years old, but the ceiling seems unlimited. Stay tuned for more updates on what is now a consolidated asset, Formula E. Charlie, with that, I will send it over to you.
Charlie: They're part of this global championship because they see the future and the potential. By 2035, nearly 70% of global car sales are expected to be electric vehicles. And we have an exclusive on this Racing Series with the FAA, who, by the way, are great partners of ours for many, many years to come.
Charlie: And then finally, word is getting out. We're now at roughly 400 million fans globally, and that's growing 23%.
Charlie: You'll also see in the bottom left that while there are...
Charlie: Two championships with bigger audiences today, F1 and MotoGP, neither is growing as fast. Remember, we're a very, very young championship, at least compared to Formula 1, which is 75 years old, but the ceiling feels, seems unlimited. So stay tuned for more updates on what is now a consolidated asset, Formula E. And Charlie, with that, I'll send it over to you.
Charlie Bracken: Thanks, Mike. The next slide sets out a summary of the quarterly revenue and EBITDA performance in our key markets. Telenet reported a revenue decline of 0.4% year-on-year in Q4, primarily driven by a decline in customers, which was partially offset by the 3.5% price rise in June and the continued shift towards higher-tier broadband plans. Virgin Media O2 reported a revenue decline of 2.8%, excluding the impact of nexfibre construction, driven by decreases in mobile revenue due to lower handset sales and B2B revenue. Encouragingly, underlying mobile service revenues were stable, and residential fixed revenues increased in the year. VodafoneZiggo reported a revenue decline of 2.5% in Q4, primarily due to a decline in the consumer fixed customer base, lower out-of-bundle revenue, and a decrease in low-margin handset sales. This was partially offset by growth in Ziggo Sport Totaal subscribers and continued growth in B2B revenue.
Charlie: Thanks, Mike. The next slide sets out a summary of the quarterly revenue and EBITDA performance in our key markets.
Charlie: Telenet reported a revenue decline of 0.4% year-on-year in Q4, primarily driven by a decline in customers, which was partially offset by the 3.5% price rise in June and the continued shift towards higher-tier broadband plans.
Charlie: Virgin Meteor 2 reported a revenue decline of 2.8 percent, including the impact of next-fibre construction, driven by decreases in mobile revenue due to lower handset sales and B2B revenue. Encouragingly, underlying mobile service revenues were stable, and residential fixed revenues increased in the year.
Charlie: Vodafone Zyga reported a revenue decline of 2.5% in Q4, primarily due to a decline in the consumer fixed customer base, lower out-of-bundle revenue, and a decrease in low-margin handset sales.
Charlie: This was partially offset by growth in ZigObs4Total subscribers and continued growth in B2B revenue.
Charlie Bracken: Moving on to our Q4 adjusted EBITDA performance, Telenet's adjusted EBITDA decreased 3.9% in Q4, driven by wage increases and higher programming costs, and VMO2's adjusted EBITDA in Q4 decreased 5.9%, excluding the impact of nexfibre construction. In addition to the revenue impacts, the decrease was impacted by increased marketing investments on the nexfibre footprint and reduced year-on-year growth in the B2B segment. VodafoneZiggo reported an adjusted EBITDA decrease of 4.8%, driven by the decrease in revenue, higher programming costs related to the UEFA broadcast, wage increases relating to the collective labor agreement, and an $8 million one-off impact following the sale of certain handset receivables during the quarter. Turning to our next slide, we continue to remain committed to a strong capital allocation model. In terms of cash generation, we surpassed free cash flow guidance at Telenet and achieved our target for Liberty Services Inc.
Charlie: Moving on to our Q4 adjusted EVDA performance, Telenet's adjusted EVDA decreased 3.9% in Q4, driven by wage increases and higher programming costs, and BMO2's adjusted EVDA in Q4 decreased 5.9%, excluding the impact of next fiber construction.
Charlie: In addition to the revenue impacts, the decrease was impacted by increased marketing investments on the next fiber footprint and reduced year-on-year growth in the B2B segment.
Speaker Change: Vodafone's Zyga reported an adjusted EBITDA decrease of 4.8% driven by the decrease in revenue, higher programming costs related to the UA for broadcast, wage increases relating to the collective labour agreement, and an $8 million one-off impact following the sale of certain handset receivables during the quarter.
Speaker Change: Turning to our next slide, we continue to remain committed to a strong capital allocation model. In terms of cash generation, we surpassed free cash flow guidance at Telenet and achieved our target for Liberty Services and Corporate Adjusted NVDA less P&E additions.
Charlie Bracken: adjusted EBITDA less P&E additions. At Virgin Media O2, we successfully delivered GBP 850 million of cash distribution to shareholders in 2024, with full-year free cash flow of GBP 500 million, supported by a working capital benefit of approximately GBP 200 million. VodafoneZiggo delivered EUR 228 million total cash distributions, which were modestly lower than the full-year 2024 free cash flow after allowing for spectrum payments during the year. The majority of cash distributions from VMO2 and VodafoneZiggo were received in Q4, as in previous years. We ended Q4 with a substantial cash balance of $2.2 billion, even after the $1.6 billion capital injection to Sunrise before its Q4 spin. Total cash inflow from operations and JV dividends was around $500 million.
Speaker Change: At BirgitMedia02, we successfully delivered £850 million of cash distribution to shareholders in 2024, with full year pre-cash flow of £500 million, supported by a working capital benefit of approximately £200 million.
Speaker Change: Vodafone Zygo delivered €228m total cash distributions, which were modestly lower than the full year 2024 free cash flow, after allowing for spectrum payments during the year. The majority of cash distributions from VMO2 and Vodafone Zygo were received in Q4 as in previous years.
Speaker Change: We ended Q4 with a substantial cash balance of $2.2 billion, even after the $1.6 billion capital injection to Sunrise before its Q4 spin.
Charlie Bracken: We executed a further $200 million in buybacks this quarter, bringing the total to $700 million for the year and resulting in approximately 350 million shares remaining at the end of 2024. Looking to our CapEx trends, we continue to invest in our fixed and mobile networks in line with our capital intensity targets. As a reminder, last year at VMO2, we highlighted over GBP 500 million of spend in 2023 on 5G capacity and FiberUp, which has continued in 2024 and will continue in 2025. At Telenet, the step-up in CapEx will support an additional 375,000 homes passed by year-end 2025 at Wyre. We'll also ramp in 5G digital CapEx at ServCo. We expect capital intensity in the Telenet ServCo to decline in 2026 as the major investments in the mobile network will be completed in 2025.
Speaker Change: Total cash inflow from operations and JV dividends was around $500 million. We executed a further $200 million in buybacks this quarter, bringing the total to $700 million for the year and resulting in approximately 350 million shares remaining at the end of 2024.
Speaker Change: Looking to our CapEx trends, we continue to invest in our fixed and mobile networks in line with our capital intensity targets. As a reminder, last year at VMO2, we highlighted over £500 million of spend in 2023 on 5G capacity and Fibre Up, which has continued in 2024 and will continue in 2025.
Speaker Change: At Telenet, the step-up in CapEx will support an additional 375,000 homes passed by year-end 2025 at WIRE, and will also ramp in 5G digital CapEx at Servco.
Speaker Change: We expect capital intensity in the Telenet Servco to decline in 2026 as the major investments in the mobile network will be completed in 2025.
Charlie Bracken: Wire CapEx will also be fully debt-financed through an agreed CapEx facility, meaning no equity requirement from Liberty Global or Telenet. Lastly, our investment into AI initiatives are anticipated to drive $200 to 300 million of annual benefits across Liberty Telecom over the next 3 years. Initial focus areas are using AI to better manage customer, for example, with agent assist to provide real-time support. Networks, for example, improve in-house customer experience through preventative care and diagnostics, and in customer and workplace experience, for example, in our entertainment and connectivity programs. This is equivalent to approximately 2% of telecom OpEx, with roughly 70% of the benefits focused on cost savings and 30% helping to drive revenue through customer acquisition and retention initiatives. Moving to our balance sheet, our siloed debt stacks have an average tenor of approximately 5 years, with no material maturities until 2028.
Speaker Change: Wire CapEx will also be fully debt financed through an agreed CapEx facility, meaning no equity requirement from Liberty Global or Telenet.
Speaker Change: And lastly, our investment in AI initiatives are anticipated to drive two to three hundred million dollars of annual benefits across Liberty Telecom over the next three years.
Speaker Change: Initial focus areas are using AI to better manage customer, for example, with Agent Assist to provide real-time support. Networks, for example, improve in-house customer experience through preventative care and diagnostics.
Speaker Change: and in customer and workplace experience, for example, in our entertainment and connectivity programs.
Speaker Change: This is equivalent to approximately 2% of Telecom OPEX, with roughly 70% of the benefits focused on cost savings and 30% helping to drive revenue through customer acquisition and retention initiatives.
Speaker Change: Moving to our balance sheet, our siloed debt stacks have an average tenor of approximately five years, with no material maturities until 2028.
Charlie Bracken: Our aggregate debt is split equally between bank debt and bonds, with the bonds typically issued with a longer duration of 10 years as compared to the bank debts at eight to 10 years. Our variable bank debt is fixed using swaps, which are independent of the underlying debt. This allows us to refinance near-term maturities and extend the tenor, but also benefit from the underlying swaps. Now, in general, we look to manage our debt maturities so that there are no material refinancing commitments in the next three years. In 2024, we successfully refinanced all debt maturities due before 2028, and in Q4, completed a green bond issuance for VodafoneZiggo, as well as a $500 million term loan extension in VMO2. Now, all of these refinancings were secured in line with our historic credit spreads, and we continue to see strong appetite for our debt securities.
Speaker Change: Our aggregate debt is split equally between bank debt and bonds, with the bonds typically issued with a longer duration of 10 years as compared to the bank debt for 8 to 10 years.
Speaker Change: Our variable bank debt is fixed using swaps, which are independent of the underlying debt. This allows us to refinance near-term maturities and extend the tenor, but also benefit from the underlying swaps.
Speaker Change: Now, in general, we look to manage our debt maturities so that there are no material refinancing commitments in the next three years.
Speaker Change: In 2024, we successfully refinanced all debt maturities due before 2028 and in Q4 completed a green bond issuance for Vodafone Zygo as well as a $500 million term loan extension in VMO2.
Speaker Change: Now all of these refinancings were secured in line with our historic credit spreads and we continue to see strong appetite for our debt securities
Charlie Bracken: We also use the bank market to finance large CapEx builds. We just agreed a EUR 500 million standalone CapEx facility for Wyre, and during 2024, we also secured similar bank financings for our growth assets. For example, a EUR 273 million of project and land banking facility for AtlasEdge. On the next page, we lay out the key financials for Liberty Services and Corporate. Our corporate group provides management and advisory services focusing on financial and human capital, as well as technology expertise. We also have two other revenue-generating units, Liberty Blume and Liberty Tech, which I'll talk about more in the next slide. On the right-hand side, we've deconstructed services and corporate to illustrate how we think about this pillar internally.
Speaker Change: We also used the bank market to finance large CapEx builds. We just agreed a 500 million euro standalone CapEx facility for WIRE. And during 2024, we also secured similar bank financings for our growth assets. For example, a euro 273 million of project and land banking facility for Atlas Edge.
Speaker Change: On the next page, we lay out the key financials for Liberty Services and Corporate. Our Corporate group provides management and advisory services focusing on financial and human capital as well as technology expertise. But we also have two other revenue generating units, Liberty Bloom and Liberty Tech, which I'll talk about more in the next slide.
Speaker Change: Now, on the right-hand side, we've deconstructed services and corporate to illustrate how we think about this pillar internally.
Charlie Bracken: We see our two services companies, Liberty Blume and Liberty Tech, as leveraging our group scale and expertise to develop third-party opportunities and cost-effective solutions to our internal and external customers. We believe both these divisions have significant equity value and should grow over time. 1,300 of the 1,900 employees in Central work for these two services companies. The 600 people in our corporate group provide strategic and operating management and advisory services. This covers a number of areas, including key organic and inorganic capital allocation decisions for our telecom growth and services companies, developing and executing key strategic acquisitions and disposals, financing and legal support to our public and private debt and equity providers and fundraisings, developing senior and junior talent and culture to support our companies, and providing specialist technology advice, particularly in fixed and mobile network strategies such as cyber and AI services.
Speaker Change: We see our two services companies, Liberty Bloom and Liberty Tech, as leveraging our group scale and expertise to develop third-party opportunities and cost-effective solutions to our internal and external customers.
Speaker Change: We believe both these divisions have significant equity value and should grow over time. 1,300 of the 1,900 employees in Central work for these two services companies.
Speaker Change: The 600 people in our corporate group provide strategic and operating management and advisory services. Now this covers a number of areas including key organic and inorganic capital allocation decisions for our telecom, growth and services companies, developing and executing key strategic acquisitions and disposals.
Speaker Change: Financing and legal support to our public and private debt and equity providers and fundraisings.
Speaker Change: Developing senior and junior talent and culture to support our companies. And providing specialist technology advice, particularly in fixed and mobile network strategies such as cyber and AI services.
Charlie Bracken: We believe that these services add significant value to our portfolio companies, and in many cases, we receive market-tested management fees, for example, from Sunrise following its spin. Going forward, we will look to secure appropriate management fees from our companies where there are currently none, particularly in our growth assets, as well as other fully owned companies. Over time, we expect the negative EBITDA associated with this segment to be significantly reduced through this, as well as ongoing operating efficiencies. Turning to a deep dive on Liberty Services, we've highlighted the value propositions for Blume and Tech, both of which capitalize on long-term contracts and talent that we already have at Liberty Global.
Speaker Change: We believe that these services add significant value to our portfolio companies, and in many cases we receive market-tested management fees, for example from Sunrise following a spin.
Speaker Change: Going forward, we will look to secure appropriate management fees from our companies, whether on currently NUM, particularly in our growth assets, as well as other fully owned companies. And over time, we expect the negative EBITDA associated with this segment to be significantly reduced through this, as well as ongoing operating efficiencies.
Speaker Change: Turning to a deep dive on Liberty Services, we've highlighted the value propositions for Bloom and TEP, both of which capitalise on long-term contracts and talent that we already have at Liberty Global.
Charlie Bracken: Liberty Blume is the newest addition to Liberty Services, leveraging our scale and in-house expertise to deliver back-office solutions that enhance efficiency, primarily by leveraging technology and scale to reduce costs for customers, notably in financial solutions, particularly around working capital insurance, device financing, and energy management products. Procurement solutions, including category sourcing management and tech platforms, and business solutions including finance, HR, legal, tax, and construction shared services. We're already generating over $100 million of revenue here and breaking even on an adjusted EBITDA basis, which includes approximately $15 million of growth investments. Beyond the Liberty Global Federation, key clients include Tesco Mobile and Zayo Europe, with further building of the customer pipeline to come in 2025. We see an opportunity to grow revenues in Liberty Global's existing $1 billion-plus back-office spend, as well as with third parties.
Speaker Change: Liberty Bloom is the newest addition to Liberty Services, leveraging our scale and in-house expertise to deliver back office solutions that enhance efficiency, primarily by leveraging technology and scale to reduce costs for customers, notably in financial solutions, particularly around working capital, insurance, device financing and energy management products.
Speaker Change: Procurement solutions, including category sourcing, management, and tech platforms. And business solutions, including finance, HR, legal, tax, and construction shared services.
Speaker Change: We're already generating over $100 million of revenue here and breaking even on an adjusted FDA basis, which includes approximately $15 million of growth investments.
Speaker Change: Beyond the Liberty Level Federation, key clients include Tesco, Marvel and Zara Europe, with further building of the customer pipeline to come in 2025.
Speaker Change: We see an opportunity to grow revenues in Liberty Global's existing $1 billion plus back office spend, as well as with third parties.
Charlie Bracken: We also see accretive incremental acquisition opportunities to build out our portfolio, for example, in insurance services. At Liberty Tech, we are transforming a cost center to marginal profitability by commercializing our best-in-class entertainment and connectivity platforms, which already serve over 12 million households across five European markets. This is underpinned by multi-year tech services agreements and commercial agreements already in place across Liberty Telecom. While Liberty Tech is generating approximately $450 million of annual revenue and making a positive EBITDA contribution, we are proactively making investments in new areas such as AI, cybersecurity, and strategic partnerships to drive further value creation. Turning to guidance for 2025, we're providing guidance by operating company, including free cash flow. For Virgin Media O2, we expect growing revenues, excluding handsets and nexfibre construction revenues, driven by continued pricing benefits and further nexfibre penetration.
Speaker Change: We also see accretive incremental acquisition opportunities to build out our portfolio, for example in insurance services.
Speaker Change: At Liberty Tech, we are transforming a cost center to marginal profitability by commercializing our best-in-class entertainment and connectivity platforms, which already serve over 12 million households across five European markets.
Speaker Change: This is underpinned by multi-year tax services agreements and commercial agreements already in place across Liberty Telecom.
Speaker Change: while Liberty Tech is generating approximately 450 million dollars of annual revenue and making a positive EVADA contribution.
Speaker Change: We are proactively making investments in new areas such as AI, cybersecurity and strategic partnerships to drive further value creation.
Speaker Change: Turning to guidance for 2025, we're providing guidance by operating company, including free cash flow.
Speaker Change: For Virgin Meteor 2, we expect growing revenues, excluding handsets and next fiber construction revenues, driven by continued pricing benefits and further next fiber penetration.
Charlie Bracken: Growing adjusted EBITDA, excluding nexfibre construction, supported by revenue growth and a step-down in the impact of one-off OpEx investments that occurred in 2024. Stable property and equipment additions of around GBP 2 to 2.2 billion, excluding ROU additions, due to continued elevated 5G and fiber to the home spend, notably at nexfibre. Adjusted free cash flow of GBP 350 to 400 million for the year, which will support cash distributions to shareholders of GBP 350 to 400 million. Now this is lower year on year despite EBITDA growth expectations, as we do not expect the same working capital benefit in 2025 as we experienced in 2024. For VodafoneZiggo, we expect broadly stable revenue growth supported by price indexation in both fixed and mobile. Low single-digit decline in adjusted EBITDA growth impacted by strategic customer initiatives, UEFA rights, and continued impact from collective labor agreements.
Speaker Change: growing adjusted MDA, excluding next fiber construction, supported by revenue growth and a step down in the impact of one-off OPEX investments that occurred in 2024.
Speaker Change: Stable property and equipment additions of around £2 to £2.2 billion, excluding ROU additions, due to continued elevated 5G and fibre-to-the-home spend, notably at Fibre Up.
Speaker Change: Adjusted free cash flow of 350 to 400 million pounds for the year, which will support cash distributions to shareholders of 350 to 400 million pounds.
Speaker Change: This is lower year-on-year despite EBITDA growth expectations as we do not expect the same working capital benefit in 2025 as we experienced in 2024.
Speaker Change: For Vertifone Ziggo, we expect broadly stable revenue growth, supported by price indexation in both fixed and mobile, low single-digit decline in adjusted EBITDA growth, impacted by strategic customer initiatives, e-waiver rights, and continued impact from collective labour agreements.
Charlie Bracken: Property and equipment additions to sales are between 20% and 22% as 5G and CPE investment continues. Adjusted free cash flow of around EUR 300 million again in 2025, which will support cash distributions to shareholders of around EUR 300 million. For Telenet, we expect broadly stable revenues with FMC revenue offsetting the pressure from the standalone mobile segment. A low to mid single-digit rebased adjusted EBITDA decline impacted by deferred revenue in 2024 of EUR 17 million, which creates a challenging comparison, commercial investment, and mandated wage indexations. Property and equipment additions of around 38% of revenue, driven by accelerated investment in 5G and digital, which peaks in 2025, whilst Wyre is ramping up fiber to the home build, where we expect 350,000 fiber to the home premises to be passed in 2025.
Speaker Change: Property and equipment additions to sales are between 20 and 22 percent as 5G and CPE investment continues.
Speaker Change: Adjusted free cash flow of around 300 million euros again in 2025, which will support cash distributions to shareholders of around 300 million euros.
Speaker Change: For Telenet, we expect broadly stable revenues, with FMC revenue offsetting the pressure from the standalone mobile segment.
Speaker Change: A low- to mid-single-digit rebase-adjusted EBITDA decline impacted by deferred revenue in 2024 of €17 million, which creates a challenging comparison, commercial investment and mandated wage indexations.
Speaker Change: Property and equipment additions of around 38% of revenue, driven by accelerated investment in 5G and digital, which peaks in 2025, whilst WIRE is ramping up fibre-to-the-home build, where we expect 350,000 fibre-to-the-home premises to be passed in 2025.
Charlie Bracken: Adjusted free cash flow will be EUR -150 to -180 million given the heavy network CapEx, with WIR being debt financed through the new committed CapEx facility. At Corporate, we're introducing new guidance. As you know, historically, we've guided to over the past 5 years on an operating free cash flow basis. We feel it's time to update this guidance to an EBITDA basis, primarily as we now expect very limited central CapEx going forward. This is because the fact that all our Corporate expenses are basically operating expenses. This is not least because if you look at the services companies like Liberty Tech, we've converted CapEx into OpEx through things like the Infosys deal. Going forward, we're targeting EBITDA for Liberty Services and Corporate to be no more than -$200 million under our new disclosure.
Speaker Change: Adjusted free cash flow will be negative 150 to 180 million euros, given the heavy network CapEx, with wire being debt financed through the new committed CapEx facility.
Speaker Change: And at corporate, we're introducing new guidance. Now as you know, historically we've got it to over the past five years on an operating free cash flow basis.
Speaker Change: However, we feel it's time to update this guidance to an FDA basis, primarily as we now expect very limited central CAPEX going forward.
Speaker Change: This is because the fact that all our corporate expenses are basically operating expenses. And this is not least because if you look at the services companies like Liberty Tech, we've converted CapEx into OpEx through things like the Infosys deal.
Speaker Change: Going forward, we're targeting EBITDA for Liberty Services and Corporate to be no more than negative $200 million under our new disclosure.
Charlie Bracken: This will be driven by the telecom MSAs, such as the one we've agreed with Sunrise, as well as increased revenue from third parties for services delivered by Liberty Tech and Liberty Blume. We'll be investing in the growth of our services companies, in particular in AI initiatives by Liberty Tech on behalf of the broader Liberty Telecom assets. We're targeting up to 10% buyback of shares outstanding for 2025 to further deliver value back to shareholders, supported by non-core asset disposals during the year. Finally, you will note that our new disclosure now shows Liberty Growth, previously Ventures, split out separately for growth assets we fully consolidate, such as Formula E, Slovakia and Egg, our home EV charging and energy storage business. It's worth noting we pick up the equity value for these investments within our Liberty Growth fair market value.
Speaker Change: This will be driven by the telecom MSAs, such as the one we have created with Sunrise, as well as increased revenue from third parties for services delivered by Liberty Tech and Liberty Bloom. We will be investing in the growth of our services companies, in particular in AI initiatives by Liberty Tech on behalf of the broader Liberty Telecom assets.
Speaker Change: We're targeting up to a 10% buyback of shares outstanding for 2025 to further deliver value back to shareholders, supported by non-core asset disposals during the year.
one.
Speaker Change: Finally, you will note that our new disclosure now shows Liberty Growth, Privilege Ventures, split out separately for growth assets we fully consolidate, such as Formula E, Slovakia and Egg, our home EV charging and energy storage business.
Speaker Change: It's worth noting we pick up the equity value for these investments within our Liberty Growth Fair Market Value. And that concludes our prepared remarks for Q4, and I'd like to hand over to the operator for Q&A.
Charlie Bracken: That concludes our prepared remarks for Q4, and I'd like to hand over to the operator for Q&A.
Operator: The question and answer session will be conducted electronically. In order to accommodate everyone, we request that you only ask 1 question. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. We'll pause for just a moment to give everyone the opportunity to queue. Our first question comes from the line of Steve Malcolm with Redburn. Your line is now open.
Speaker Change: The question and answer session will be conducted electronically. If you would like to ask a question, please do so by pressing the star or the asterisk key, followed by the digit 1 on your telephone. In order to accommodate everyone, we request that you only ask one question. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment.
Speaker Change: We'll pause for just a moment to give everyone the opportunity to queue.
Speaker Change: Our first question comes from the line of Steve Malcolm with Redburn.
Steve Malcolm: Hi there. Hope you can hear me guys. One question quickly. I just wanted to, sort of a general free cash flow question beyond 2025. I don't want you to guide on EBITDA beyond this year. I know you can't group wise, but it feels like it's another transition year for Liberty. We've had a few. This year feels particularly transitional. As you look into sort of 2026 and beyond, maybe just give us a flavor of your outlook for CapEx across the major regions. You talked about Belgium, that's going to be down. I guess Ireland will be down as well. Where we are on 5G CapEx in the UK. Some quite big moving parts on tax as well. Obviously, the demand for repatriation tax, when that ends. You've done a lot of refinancing. What the interest cost outlook is beyond 2026.
Your line is now open.
Steve Malcolm: Yeah, hi there. I hope you can hear me, guys. Yeah, one question is tricky. I just wanted to sort of a general free cash flow question beyond 2025. I don't want you to guide on EBITDA beyond this year. I know you can't group-wise, but...
Speaker Change: Yeah, it feels like it's another transition year for Liberty. We've had a few this year feels particularly transitional, but as you look into sort of 26 and beyond,
Speaker Change: Maybe just give us a flavor of you know your outlook for capex across the major regions you talked about Belgium That's going to be done. I guess Ireland will be done as well. We are on 5g capex in the UK Some quite big moving parts on tax as well Repatriation tax you know on that end
Speaker Change: You know, you've done a lot of refinancing, what the interest costs, you know, outlook is beyond 2026. It'd be very helpful to get a sort of sense of direction of free cash flow beyond this year below the EBITDA line. If you can sort of throw a bit of light on that, that'd be very helpful. Thanks a lot.
Steve Malcolm: It'd be very helpful to get a sort of sense of direction of free cash flow beyond this year below the EBITDA line, and you can sort of throw a bit of light on that, it'd be very helpful. Thanks a lot.
Mike Fries: Yeah. Thanks, Steve. Listen, as I said in my remarks, and by the way, we appreciate you being so patient this morning, but at year-end, we have a lot to say. I mentioned that free cash flow, as you're indicating, is the key metric here that we're driving towards in every market. I'm not going to go one by one by one, but obviously Charlie showed you in his guidance that we're generating free cash at VMO2 and VodafoneZiggo as we have in the past and as we expect to in the future. I think in those two instances, clearly and especially with the NetCo separation in the UK, we expect that free cash flow is a critical metric for us and one that we anticipate growing.
Speaker Change: Yeah, thanks Steve. Listen, as I said in my remarks, and by the way, we appreciate you being so patient this morning, but at year-end we have a lot to say.
Speaker Change: I mentioned that free cash flow, as you're indicating, is the key metric here that we're driving towards in every market. I'm not going to go one by one by one, but obviously, Charlie showed you.
Speaker Change: in his guidance that we're generating free cash at VMO2 and Vodafone Zygo as we have in the past and as we expect to in the future. So I think in those two instances clearly...
Speaker Change: And especially with the net co-separation in the UK, we expect that free cash flow is a critical metric for us and one that we anticipate growing.
Mike Fries: In the case of Belgium and Ireland, I mentioned that Ireland is coming through its CapEx tunnel, if you will, and ought to be finished largely in the early part of next year with its fiber build. Can't give you the numbers, but obviously we expect that a marginally negative free cash flow figure this year becomes a meaningful free cash flow figure over time. That trajectory mirrors more of what you're seeing more broadly in the European telco sector, which is reduced CapEx over time. That should generate free cash flow. Those three assets, I think are pretty clear, or should be pretty clear. Belgium, a little more complicated because there, we're still consolidating the NetCo, and that NetCo has at least EUR 2 billion in front of it, some of which we finance, some of which our partner finance, some of which will be debt-financed.
In the case of Belgium and Ireland,
Speaker Change: largely in the early part of next year with its fiber build and we can't give you the numbers, but obviously we expect that a marginally negative free cash flow figure this year becomes a meaningful free cash flow figure over time. So that trajectory mirrors more of what you're seeing more broadly in the European tempo sector, which is
reduced capex over time.
Speaker Change: That should generate free cash flow. So those three assets I think are pretty clear, should be pretty clear. Belgium, a little more complicated because there we're still consolidating the netco and that netco has at least 2 billion euros in front of it, some of which we finance, some of which our partner finance, some of which will be debt financed.
Mike Fries: What we haven't yet done there is really engage the market, or sell a stake, to be more blunt about it, in the Wyre asset. There may come a time, will come a time, where that is the right move. Wyre is arguably going to be the most interesting, attractive infrastructure asset in Europe, given what we're trying to do there with ultimate utilization rates at 80% or more in a big chunk of the network. We fully anticipate that that asset could either be deconsolidated or certainly, reflect a value contribution to our value creation narrative that's substantial. Over time, reduce the focus on CapEx and really put the attention back on ServCo. The ServCo in Belgium has some 5G CapEx, which we've discussed, and others, but that trajectory also looks positive.
Speaker Change: And what we haven't yet done there is really engage the market or sell a stake, to be more blunt about it, in the wire asset. There may come a time, will come a time, where that is the right move. Wire is arguably going to be the most interesting asset.
attractive.
Speaker Change: asset in Europe given what we're trying to do there with
Speaker Change: at 80% or more in a big chunk of the network.
Speaker Change: We fully anticipate that that asset could either be deconsolidated or certainly reflect a value contribution to our value creation narrative that's substantial.
you know, over time, it'll reduce.
Speaker Change: the focus on CapEx and really put the attention back on Servco. And the Servco in Belgium has some 5G CapEx, which we've discussed, and others, but that trajectory also looks...
Mike Fries: I think I'm answering your question more indirectly than directly, but I'd say market by market, we absolutely believe the free cash flow trajectory of these businesses looks good. That's why we're investing the CapEx. That's why we're being creative as to how we invest the CapEx. That's why we're establishing NetCos in two instances. I think you're going to like what you see longer term.
Speaker Change: positive. So I think I'm answering your question you know more indirectly than directly but I'd say market by market we absolutely believe the free cash flow trajectory of these businesses looks
Speaker Change: Good. That's why we're investing in a CapEx. That's why we're being creative as to how we invest the CapEx. That's why we're establishing netcos in two instances. I think you're going to like what you see longer term.
Operator: Thank you for your question, Steve. Our next question comes from the line of Joshua Mills with BNP Paribas. Your line is now open.
Thank you for your question, Steve.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from the line of Joshua Mills with BNP Paribas.
Joshua Mills: Hi, guys. I'll use my one question to go into a bit more detail on slide 14, please. If I understand this right, I think what you're saying to us is, going forward, you want to illustrate the value of the central services business. Part of the way you're going to do that is by increasing the MSA fees and trying to get more money from the opco levels. I guess my question is, how do you think about the balance there? On the one hand, yes, you'll potentially neutralize this negative cash drag, which is clearly helping from a valuation perspective. It's also going to reduce the EBITDA and the free cash flow out of those businesses, which in some cases are already under pressure. You're talking about spinning off or doing IPOs within the next few years.
Joshua Mills: Hi, guys. I'll use my one question to go into a bit more detail on slide 14, please. If I understand this right, I think what you're saying to us is...
Joshua Mills: Going forward, you want to illustrate the value of the central services business. Part of the way you're going to do that is by increasing the MSA fees and trying to get more money from the OPCO levels.
Joshua Mills: I guess my question is how do you think about the balance there because on the one hand yes, you're potentially
Joshua Mills: neutralizes negative cash drag which is clearly a headwind from an actual evaluation perspective.
Joshua Mills: But it's also going to reduce the EBITDA and the free cash flow out of those businesses, which in some cases are already under pressure. And you're talking about spinning off or doing IPOs within the next few years. So... . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Joshua Mills: Maybe just a couple of commentaries on how you get that balance right so that you can still get what you deem to be fair value for those businesses when they come to market whilst upstreaming cash in an appropriate way to Liberty would be helpful. Then maybe just part b to that question, are we talking here mainly about the businesses within your 100% ownership, or have you had the conversations with Telefónica or VMO2 and Vodafone or VodafoneZiggo, that they should be paying you more effectively from the JV level up to Liberty because of the services you provide? Thanks.
Joshua Mills: Maybe a couple of commentaries on how you get that balance right so that you can still get.
Joshua Mills: what you deem to be fair value for those businesses when they come to market.
Joshua Mills: whilst upstreaming cash in an appropriate way to liberty would be helpful.
Joshua Mills: And then maybe just a part B to that question, are we talking here mainly about the businesses within your 100% ownership or have you had the conversations with Telefonica or VMO2
Speaker Change: and Vodafone and Vodafone Zygo, they should be paying you more effectively from the JV level up to Liberty because of the services you provide. Thanks.
Mike Fries: Mike, are you there? Yeah, sorry, I was on mute. That was a great question, Josh. I'm going to let Charlie address most of it. I just want to say quickly up front that while we definitely mentioned MSA at the outset as to a source of net corporate spend reduction, there is an additional source, which is, of course, just simply reducing costs. I would not be surprised if we take a good hard look at the operating model and the expenses and size and scale of the corporate group at the same time. It's not simply laying off costs to opcos, as you point out, who are already having their own issues, and quite frankly, which we want to maximize the value of. It's also rethinking the operating model as we move forward. You should expect both things to occur.
Mike, are you there?
Mike Fries: Yeah, sorry, I was on mute. That was a great question, Josh. I'm going to let Charlie address most of it. I just want to say quickly up front that...
Speaker Change: While we definitely mentioned MSAs at the outset as to a source of net corporate spend reduction, there is an additional source which is of course just simply reducing costs. And I would not be surprised if we take a good hard look at the operating model.
Speaker Change: and the expenses and size and scale of the corporate group.
Speaker Change: at the same time. So it's not simply laying off costs to opcos, as you point out, who are already having their own issues, and quite frankly, which we want to maximize the value of. It's also rethinking the operating model as we move forward. So you should expect both things to occur. Charlie, you want to address the MSA question?
Mike Fries: Charlie, you want to address the MSA question?
Charlie Bracken: Yeah. Look, I think Sunrise is a good test case. What services make sense to scale and where we have expertise that is expensive to replicate at the opcos and what doesn't. I'm not going to go through each of the key levers. I tried in my remarks to do that. I'll give you an example. Treasury would be a good example. Rightly, we think we have a very, very good treasury, who are well experienced on managing debt facilities and bank balance sheets. They just, for example, did actually a very good refinancing for Sunrise since its spin, which materially reduced the cost of its capital and extended its average life. It doesn't make sense for Sunrise to build its own treasury for less regular transactions. Also they'd find it hard to replicate the level of expertise we have.
Speaker Change: Yeah, so look, I think some of this is a good test case. You know, what services make sense to scale and where we have the expertise that is expensive to replicate in the opcodes?
Speaker Change: and what doesn't. I'm not going to go through each of the key levers, I've tried in my remarks to do that, but to give you an example, Treasury would be a good example. Rightly we think we have a very, very good Treasury who are well experienced on managing debt facilities and bank balance sheets.
Speaker Change: And they just, for example, did actually a very good refinancing for Sunrise.
Speaker Change: since its spin, which materially reduced the cost of its capital and extended it.
it's average life. Now it doesn't make sense...
Speaker Change: for Sunrise to build its own treasury for less regular transactions and also they find it hard to replicate the level of expertise we have. So in getting that balance right, that is the kind of thing we're trying to get right. I think it's also worth pointing out that we have obviously charged these companies for many years MSAs but they've always been below the EBITDA line.
Charlie Bracken: In getting that balance right, that is the kind of thing we're trying to get right. I think it's also worth pointing out that we have obviously charged these companies for many years MSA, but they've always been below the EBITDA line. There's nothing new going on here. What we're now, when we spin them, is making explicit what proportion of that should be above the line. Just to confirm, what I'm talking about here is specifically related to those corporate advisory services. Liberty Tech and indeed Liberty Blume are genuine arm's length businesses, where they win or lose according to third-party contracts. In the case, for example, of Zayo, we were competitive enough to win from a third party, and the same thing applies with each of these opcos.
Speaker Change: So there's nothing new going on here. What we're now, when we spin them, is making explicit what proportion of that should be above the line.
Speaker Change: Just to confirm, what I'm talking about here is specifically related to those corporate advisory services. Liberty Tech and indeed Liberty Bloom are genuine arms-length businesses, where they win or lose according to third-party contracts.
Speaker Change: And in the case, for example, of Zayo, you know, we were competitive enough to win from a third party and the same thing applies with each of these opcodes.
Mike Fries: On your question around JVs, we do collect management fees, MSA fees from VMO2. That was established at the outset along with TEF. Charlie is working very hard on our growth portfolio, where we are providing meaningful services to controlled and minority-owned positions there. This isn't an extraction exercise, this is a value creation exercise, but it's also ensuring that the extraordinary value we think we provide is being properly recognized. Also, as I'll repeat, we'll look at the operating model as well. This is not just offsetting, this is going to be rethinking the operating model as the shape of the business changes.
Speaker Change: On your question around JVs, we do collect management fees, MFA fees, from VMO2. That was established at the outset along with TEF. And Charlie is working very hard on our growth portfolio, where we are providing meaningful services to controlled and minority-owned positions there.
Speaker Change: So this isn't an extraction exercise, this is a value creation exercise, but it's also ensuring that the extraordinary value we think we provide is being properly recognized. But also, as I'll repeat, we'll look at the operating model as well. This is not just offsetting, this is going to be rethinking the operating model as the shape of the business changes.
Operator: Thank you for your question, Joshua. Our next question comes from the line of Carl Murdock-Smith with Citigroup. Your line is now open.
Thank you for your question, Joshua.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from the line of Carl Murdoch-Smith with Citigroup.
Carl Murdock-Smith: That's great. Thank you very much. I'll ask the A shares versus C shares question, please, regarding the buyback. Just an update on how you're thinking around that. All of the buyback last year, I think was done on the C line, despite it being more expensive and now having lower liquidity than the A shares. I was just wondering on what your thoughts are around the buyback going forwards, and in terms of which line to do it on. Thank you.
Your line is now open.
That's great. Thank you very much.
Speaker Change: A shares versus C shares question please regarding the buyback, just an update on how you're thinking around that?
Speaker Change: All of the buyback last year I think was done on the C-line, despite it being more expensive and now having lower liquidity than the A-shares, so I was just wondering on what your thoughts are around the buyback going forwards and in terms of which line to do it on. Thank you.
Mike Fries: Yeah. Thanks, Carl. Listen, I think we do this on a relatively dynamic basis, so I don't know that we have, at this very moment, a grid we're willing to disclose. I will say we haven't been buying any stock through the course of this year. We did not have a 10b5-1 plan in place at year-end, so through 19 February, we haven't bought a single share, but we anticipate obviously doing that and you'll see what we do as time goes by as we disclose it, but I'm not going to give you the expectation at this point.
Speaker Change: Thanks, Carl. Listen, I think we do this on a relatively dynamic basis, so I don't know that we have at this very moment a grid we're willing to disclose. I will say we haven't been buying any stock through the course of this year.
Speaker Change: We did not have a 10B51 plan in place at year-end, so through February 19th, we haven't bought a single share, but we anticipate obviously doing that, and you'll see what we do as time goes by as we disclose it, but I'm not going to give you the expectation at this point.
Operator: Thank you for your question, Carl. Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Harrigan with The Benchmark Company. Your line is now open.
Thank you for your question, Carl.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Harrigan with The Benchmark Company.
Matthew Harrigan: Thank you. Thank you. There is a sense at CES this year and some other forums that you get an acceleration in the handset replacement cycle. Right now it's about 4 years. It's been the longest it's ever been. Some of that could be prompted by AI functionality in the phones beyond the facial recognition and transcription. Maybe it's better integrated, you don't have to fumble around with an app. How do you think an increase in switching activity on the high end of the market could affect your mobile operations in the UK and Benelux? What are the opportunities there, would you expect to gain share if that finally happened? Obviously, everyone on this call is well aware that 5G in Europe has substantially lagged that in the US, it does feel like it could be an interesting propellant for your business.
Your line is now open. Oh, thank you.
Speaker Change: Thank you. There is a sense of CES this year in some other forms that you get an acceleration in the handset replacement cycle. Right now, it's about four years. It's been the longest it's ever been.
Speaker Change: Some of that could be prompted by AI functionality of the phones beyond the facial recognition and transcription, maybe it's better integrated so you don't have to fumble around with an app. How do you think an increase?
Speaker Change: you know, they are. And would you expect to gain share if that finally happened? Obviously, everyone on this call is well aware that 5G in Europe
Speaker Change: has substantially lagged that in the U.S., but it does feel like it could be an interesting propellant for your business. Thanks for taking the question.
Matthew Harrigan: Thanks for taking the question.
Mike Fries: Thanks, Matt. Lutz, you want to address that in the UK?
Speaker Change: Thanks, Matt. Lutz, you want to address that in the U.K.?
Lutz Schüler: Yes.
Mike Fries: You might be on mute.
Lutz Schüler: Can you hear me? Hello?
Yes. You might be on mute, I think.
Mike Fries: Yep.
Lutz Schüler: Yeah. Okay. As you rightly point out, Matthew Harrigan, O2 has really the majority of premium customers. We are the home of iPhone, and also we have recently launched the flagship innovation from Samsung. With all of it, we don't see any acceleration based on AI on these demands for these kind of phones yet. Therefore, we are very cautious factoring this in the future. I mean, if your forecast is right, it's upside, but it's not really in our guidance. We don't see that, but I agree with your question and hopefully you're right.
Can you hear me?
Hello? Yep.
Yeah, okay
Speaker Change: So as you rightly point out Matt, RightO2 has really the majority of premium customers so we are the home of iPhone and also we have recently launched the
Speaker Change: flagship innovation from Samsung but with all of it we don't see any acceleration based on AI on these demands for these kind of phones yet.
Speaker Change: So, therefore, we are very cautious factoring this in in the future. I mean, if your forecast is right, it's upside, but it's not really in our guidance. So we don't see that, but I agree with your question and hopefully you're right.
Operator: Thank you for your question, Matthew. Our next question comes from the line of Ulrich Rathe with Bernstein Societe Generale Group. Your line is now open.
Thank you for your question, Matthew.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from the line of Orrick Glass with Bernstein Societary General Group.
Ulrich Rathe: Thank you very much. Thank you so much. I have clarification questions on the UK. What was the nature of that working capital benefit in the Q4 that's now weighing in a way on the year-on-year trends for free cash flow? What is the nature of these postpaid net adds in terms of the acquisition, ARPU? I think you mentioned giffgaff as a particular driver, which suggests that this could be ARPU dilutive, this recovery of the net adds. If I may, just to clarify, one thing that was left open in the guidance was the nexfibre impact, which has been either way in the past. I mean, how do you actually expect that to unfold in 2025 in the UK? Thank you so much.
Your line is now open. Thank you very much.
Orrick Glass: Thank you so much. I have clarification questions on the UK. What was the nature of the work
and capital benefit.
Orrick Glass: in the fourth quarter that's now weighing in a way sort of on the year-on-year trends for free cash flow.
Orrick Glass: Also, what is the nature of these prosperity net ads in terms of the acquisition RPU? I think you mentioned GIFGAP as a particular driver which suggests that this could be RPU dilutive, this recovery of the net ads. If I may, just to clarify one thing that was mentioned.
Speaker Change: left open and the guidance was the next fiber impact, which has been either way in the past. How do you actually expect that to unfold in 2025 in the UK? Thank you so much.
Mike Fries: Thanks. Charlie, you want to take the working capital question and maybe the nexfibre question, and then Lutz, you can handle the postpaid ARPU?
Speaker Change: Thanks. Charlie, you want to take the working capital question and maybe the next Fiverr question and then Lutz you can handle the postpaid RPO.
Charlie Bracken: On the working capital, just to remind you, we believe telecom companies run their working capital broadly flat, because of our customer cycle. Broadly, the customer pays us real time. To the extent to which your costs stay flat, you broadly have a payable cycle that doesn't really finance. Now within that, there are obviously seasonal variations, Q4 variation, that's a big difference. We do some optimization of it, for example, around realizing a much lower cost of capital by what they call factoring receivables. We do handset receivables, as many people do. In the case of our payables, we try and take the pressure off our suppliers by doing what's called vendor financing, which I think we've talked about over the years. I would characterize the 2024 swing as within broadly flat because it's a big company, $10 billion of revenue.
Speaker Change: Yes, so on the working capital, just to remind you, we try, we believe telecom companies run their working capital broadly flat, you know, because of our customer cycle, part of the customer pays us real time.
Speaker Change: And to the extent to which your costs stay flat, you broadly have a payable cycle that doesn't really finance. Now within that, there are obviously seasonal variations. Q4 variation looks a big difference.
Speaker Change: and we do do some optimization of it for example around realizing a much lower cost of capital by
Speaker Change: what they call factoring receivables, so we do handset receivables as many people do.
Speaker Change: And in the case of our payables, we try and take the pressure off our suppliers by doing what's called vendor financing, which I think we've talked about over the years. You know, I would characterize the 2024 swing as within broadly flat because it's a big company, 10 billion of revenue.
Charlie Bracken: It was slightly positive there. I think what we suggested in 2025 is that we are just reverting back to a pure flat number. To be honest with you, the only certainty is it will be ± around that. It could be a bit more positive, it could be slightly negative, and it will depend a lot on seasonal nature and also the timing of certain CapEx, et cetera.
Speaker Change: But it was slightly positive there, and I think what we've suggested in 2025 is that we are just reverting back to a pure flat number, and to be honest with you, the only certainty is it'll be plus or minus around that, but it could be a bit more positive, it could be slightly negative, and it'll depend a lot on
seasonal nature and also the timing of certain capex etc.
Mike Fries: Lutz, do you want to say the other part? The nexfibre on guidance, Charlie? Sorry, what was the question on nexfibre, guys? I beg your pardon.
Speaker Change: Do you want to take the next fiber? Yeah, it's Charlie
Lutz Schüler: I can do this. We are not guiding.
Charlie: So what was the question on the next slide? I beg your pardon.
Mike Fries: Yeah, go ahead, please.
Lutz Schüler: Maybe then I start with nexfibre question. As you know, we are not publicly differentiating in our net add growth between our existing coverage and nexfibre. Therefore, you get the blended number. I think underlying, of course, it shouldn't be a surprise for you that in the BAU coverage, we are losing customers. A small amount, but we are losing it. In nexfibre, we are growing because we are penetrating a new network. Now, what I can tell you is that our losses in our existing coverage are significantly less to other big market players. This is what we believe. Aggressive altnets with very aggressive prices are getting some customers also away from us. The question is, for your models, what do you factor in? How long will this last? How sustainable is this? On the postpaid question.
Speaker Change: I can do this. I mean, we are not guiding Next Fiber.
Speaker Change: Yeah, so maybe then I start with the next fiber question. I mean, as you know, we are not publicly differentiating, you know, net growth between our existing coverage and next fiber, so therefore you get the blended number. I think underlying, of course, it shouldn't be a surprise for you that in the BAU coverage
Speaker Change: We are losing customers, a small amount, but we are losing it. And in Next Fiber, we are growing because we are penetrating a new network.
Now, what I can tell you is that...
our losses in our existing coverage.
Thank you. Bye-bye.
Speaker Change: significant less to other big market players this is this is what we believe.
But...
aggressive automats
Yeah, with very aggressive prices.
Speaker Change: are getting some customers also away from us. The question is, for your models, what do you factor in? How long will this last? How sustainable is this? On the post-bate question, so first, I think it's very important to understand that we've taken a conscious decision to approach the market
Lutz Schüler: First, I think it's very important to understand that we've taken a conscious decision to approach the market in postpaid, so in pay monthly, with two brands, O2 and giffgaff. Therefore, deliberately, we are not lowering prices on O2 too much because this is our premium brand, and if we are going in acquisition too aggressive, we also would offer that to our existing base. Therefore, there are two markets we are playing in. The classical MNO market. This is O2, and here we look clearly more after ARPU than after volume. giffgaff is the volume brand. Here we look more after volume and less after ARPU. If you added both up, you can see on page eight of the deck that the postpaid ARPU in Q4 has been shrinking minus 6%. A year ago, it was a tough comparator.
Speaker Change: in post pay, so in pay monthly with two brands, or two and gift card.
Speaker Change: So, therefore, deliberately, we are not lowering prices too much, because this is our premium brand and if we are going in acquisition too aggressive, we also would offer that to our existing base.
Speaker Change: So, therefore, there are two markets we are playing in, the classical M&O market, this is so true, and here we look clearly more after RPU than after volume.
Speaker Change: GifGov is the volume brand, here we look more after volume and less after RQ.
And if you added those up...
You can see on page 8 of the deck.
Speaker Change: that the post-bed RPU in Q4 has been shrinking minus 6%.
Lutz Schüler: As you know, we are doing the price rise in Q1, and I think you know the level of price rise we are doing. We have a much less tough previous year comparator out of price rise last year, and the price rises are quite interesting for us. Therefore, going forward, we are pretty confident that ultimately what we are interested in is to grow mobile service revenue out of P x Q out of both brands, and we are confident in that.
But a year ago, it was a...
Speaker Change: touch comparator and as you know we are doing the price rise in Q1 and I think you know the level of price rise we are doing so we have a much less
Speaker Change: tough previous year comparator out of price right last year and the price rises are quite interesting for us.
So, therefore, going forward, we are pretty confident that...
Speaker Change: Ultimately what we are interested in is to grow mobile service revenue out of P times Q out of both brands and we are confident in that.
Mike Fries: Thank you, Lutz.
Operator: Thank you for your question, Ulrich. Our next question comes from the line of David Wright with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Thank you, Luz.
Thank you for your question, Ulrich.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from the line of David Wright with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
David Wright: Yes, thank you. Thank you for taking my calls. I'm just going to come back to slide 6, your sum of the parts walk, which I think there's a lot of debate around this, of course, if only the fact that obviously the market is not agreeing, and thus your derivation of the undervalued assets. I guess my question is UK related, but is a derivative of this, which is you talk about there being zero equity value for the telecom assets. Obviously what we are observing in telecom, I think we know very clearly, is that the infrastructure assets are valued at a much higher multiple than the ServCo assets.
Thank you.
David Wright: Yes, thank you, and thank you for taking my calls. I'm just going to come back to slide six, your sum of the parts walk.
Speaker Change: Which I think there's an element of, there's a lot of debates around this of course, if only the fact that obviously the market is not agreeing and thus your derivation of the undervalued assets.
Speaker Change: I guess my question is UK related but is a derivative of this which is you talk about there being zero equity value for the telecom assets.
Speaker Change: But obviously, what we are observing in telecom, I think we know very clearly is that the equity infrastructure assets are valued at a much higher multiple than the circle assets. So if you do go down the route in the UK.
David Wright: If you do go down the route in the UK or in Belgium of selling off infrastructure within the NetCos or Wyre or whoever it may be, is it not the case that the value of the mix of the telecom asset will be on a lower EBITDA multiple because you've got less infrastructure and more ServCo? That's coming to, I guess my key question here is what potential equity are-
or any.
Speaker Change: Belgium are selling off infrastructure within the netcos or wire or whoever it may be. Is it not the case that the value of the mix of the telecom asset will be on a lower ETH multiple?
Speaker Change: because you've got less infrastructure and more Servco and that's coming to I guess my key question here is what potential equity
Mike Fries: David?
Operator: Thank you for your question.
Mike Fries: Did we lose you? Well, sorry, we lost the last little bit of your question, David, but I'll try to riff off of what I think you were getting at. Look, there's lots of ways of answering that. I would say, number 1, whether it's 1 turn on the integrated EBITDA or it's 3 turns on the NetCo and 0.5 turn on the ServCo, there's no question that we're trading at the value of our debt. That's where Sunrise was trading as well as an integrated operator. If you look at the telco average across Europe, which is a mix of NetCo, ServCos, integrated companies at 6.5, does it seem extraordinary to us to think that getting people to appreciate the value of our infrastructure, the value of our free cash flow potential over time, is worthy of a higher multiple?
David, did we lose you?
Speaker Change: Well, sorry, we lost the last little bit of your question, David, but I'll try to riff off of what I think you were getting at.
Look it.
There's lots of ways of...
Speaker Change: answering that. I would say, number one, whether it's one turn on the integrated EBITDA or it's three turns on the NETCO and half a turn on the CERVCO, there's no question that we're trading at the value of our debt.
Speaker Change: And that's where Sunrise was trading as well, as an integrated operator.
Speaker Change: If you look at the telco average across Europe, which is a mix of NETCO, Servco's integrated companies at six and a half.
Does it seem extraordinary to us to think that
you know, getting...
Speaker Change: people to appreciate the value of our infrastructure, the value of our free cash flow potential over time is worthy of a higher multiple. And by the way,
Mike Fries: By the way, I'm not going to wait around for you to get there. Meaning, if the market doesn't appreciate it, we'll just have to prove it. That's really the difference. The strategic pivot 12 months ago was we ain't waiting around anymore for you to figure it out. We're just going to prove it. We did that with Sunrise. To me, it's not a question of will it or won't it. We'll demonstrate that it's there. We'll show you with transactions, with strategic opportunities that it's there. People who stick around will get the benefit of it. We certainly want research analysts, yourself included, to see the value in what we're doing. We want you to appreciate the free cash flow potential of our businesses. We want you to understand the network infrastructure strategies. That's no question.
Speaker Change: I'm not going to wait around for you to get there.
Speaker Change: Meaning, if the market doesn't appreciate it, we'll just have to prove it. And that's really the difference. The strategic pivot 12 months ago was, we ain't waiting around anymore for you to figure it out. We're just going to prove it. And we did that with Sunrise. So to me, it's not a question of will it or won't it. We'll demonstrate that it's there. We'll show you.
with transactions, with strategic opportunities.
Speaker Change: that it's there, and people who stick around will get the benefit of it. I mean, we certainly want research analysts, yourself included, to...
Speaker Change: see the value of what we're doing. We want you to appreciate the free cash flow potential of our businesses. We want you to understand the network infrastructure strategies. That's no question.
Mike Fries: We know that over time, a combination of these things will absolutely be reflected in the value of these telecom businesses. That if I went to my partners, if I went to an investment bank to list something, if I went to a private equity shop to sell it, they're not giving me zero. All right? They're not giving me zero. The fact that we think it's zero, I think, is the starting point, and we can debate whether it's 1 turn, 2 turns, 3 turns. Whether it's free cash flow, dividend yield strategy, or a network infrastructure premium multiple strategy, or a combination of all of those. We're convinced that over this 24 to 36-month timeframe, we're going to demonstrate that. That is what you have to believe to buy this stock. That's the bottom line.
Speaker Change: But we know that over time, a combination of these things will absolutely be reflected in the value of these telecom businesses. And that if I went to my partners, if I went to an investment bank to list something, if I went to a private equity shop to sell it,
They're not giving me zero.
All right? They're not giving me zero.
Speaker Change: So the fact that we think it's zero, I think, is the starting point, and we can debate whether it's one turn, two turns, three turns.
Speaker Change: Whether it's free cash flow, give and yield strategy, or network infrastructure, premium multiple strategy, or a combination of all of those. But we're convinced that over this, you know...
Speaker Change: to 36 month time frame, we're going to demonstrate that and that is what you have to believe to buy this stock. That's the bottom line. Whether you get there or other analysts get there, I don't really care. We're going to get there and it will be there.
Mike Fries: Whether you get there or another analyst gets there, I don't really care. We're going to get there. It'll be delivered through external independent transactions or opportunities as opposed to analytical research. Dave, we didn't get the end part of your question, but I hope that's responsive.
Speaker Change: delivered through external independent transactions or opportunities as opposed to analytical research.
Dave: Dave, we didn't get the end part of your question, but I hope that's responsive.
Operator: Thank you for your question, David.
Mike Fries: Thanks.
Operator: Our final question comes from the line of James Ratzer with New Street Research. Your line is now open.
Thank you for your question, David. Great.
Speaker Change: Our final question comes from the line of James Rather with New Street Research.
James Ratzer: Yes, Mike, good morning. Thank you very much for taking the question. The area I was interested in focusing on today, please, was just the spectrum position that you have in the UK asset with Virgin Media O2. Obviously with the VodafoneThree transaction, they build a pretty dominant spectrum position, but to offset that, you will be buying some spectrum from them to strengthen your own position. I was wondering if you can give us some more insight into the moving parts here. Can you let us know, for example, how much spectrum you will be purchasing? Can you give us some steer on what the cost of that will be? Will we see the cost of that in 2025, or is it going to be phased in over a few years?
Your line is now open.
Speaker Change: Yes, Mike, good morning. Thank you very much for taking the question. So the area I was interested in focusing on today, please, was just the spectrum position that you have in the UK asset with Virgin Media. So obviously, with the Vodafone 3 transaction, they build a pretty dominant spectrum position, but to offset that, you will be
and spectrum from them to strengthen your own position.
Speaker Change: I was wondering if you can give us some more insight.
Speaker Change: into the moving parts here. Can you let us know, for example, how much Spectrum you will be purchasing?
Speaker Change: Can you give us some steer on what the cost of that will be? Will we see the cost of that in 2025, or is it going to be phased in over a few years?
James Ratzer: With this new spectrum position, how secure do you feel about, for example, the Sky MVNO on your network and whether they could be lured across with a stronger spectrum position at VodafoneThree? When does that contract with Sky next come up for renewal? Thank you.
And then with this new spectrum position, how...
Speaker Change: secure do you feel about, for example, the Sky MVNO on your network and whether they could be lured across with a stronger spectrum position at Vodafone 3? When does that contract with Sky next come up for renewal? Thank you.
Mike Fries: Yeah. Lots of really good questions there. I'll let Lutz dig in. I don't believe we disclosed much in the way of detail, Lutz, on price and the megahertz spectrum and the bands we're buying. I'll let you address that as well as the Sky contract length.
Speaker Change: Yeah, lots of really good questions there. I'll let Lutz dig in. I don't believe we've disclosed much in the way of detail, Lutz, on price.
Speaker Change: And the megahertz spectrum and the bands were buying but I'll let you address that as well as the sky contract length
Lutz Schüler: Thank you. James Ratzer, as Mike Fries said, we can't really disclose neither the concrete spectrum nor the price. The deal is also not closed on VodafoneThree yet. I think the spectrum will be disclosed by Ofcom, if I'm not mistaken, after the deal has been closed. Also to share with you the price, we need agreement from our partners there. Unfortunately, we cannot say that. I think what I can say is, you know that our market share is significantly higher today compared to the spectrum we hold, and we fix that with this kind of deal. We put ourselves in a healthy position.
Yeah, thank you. Yeah, James
As Mike said, right, we can't really disclose.
neither the concrete spectrum.
Speaker Change: nor the price. The deal is also not closed on Vodafone 3 yet.
Speaker Change: And also to share with you the price, we need agreement from our partners there. So unfortunately, we cannot say that. I think what I can say is, you know that our market share is significantly higher today compared to the spectrum we hold.
Lutz Schüler: I also don't want, and I'm not allowed to disclose with you the term of the deal with Sky, but what I can tell you is that the spectrum we are sitting on, the investments we are doing in our mobile network, we have done, especially in 2024, which was significantly higher, and we will do going forward, puts us in the position to really stay in a long-term relationship with Sky.
Speaker Change: and we fix that with this kind of deal. So we put ourselves in a healthy position. I also don't want and I'm not allowed to disclose with you the term of the deal with Sky, but what I can tell you is that
Speaker Change: The spectrum we are sitting on, the investments we are doing in our mobile network we have done, especially in 24, which was significantly higher, and we will do going forward, puts us in the position to really stay in a long-term relationship with Skype.
Mike Fries: Thanks, Lutz. I think that's time, operator, or was there one more?
Thanks, Lutz.
Operator: No, sir. That concludes today's question and answer session.
I think that's time, operator, or was there one more?
Mike Fries: Great.
Operator: I would now like to pass the call back to Mr. Fries.
Speaker Change: No, sir. That concludes today's question and answer session. I would now like to pass the ball back to Mr. Frye.
Mike Fries: It frees. Yeah. Thanks, everybody. David, sorry to get animated on your question. I didn't get the end part of it, so I hope we were responsive. Listen, I appreciate you joining us. A little longer remarks today, but I think appropriate given year-end. As far as we're concerned, we think 2024 was a standout year. We hit 13 of 14 guidance metrics, spun off Sunrise, and more or less achieved all the strategic goals. We're setting ourselves up for an equally ambitious 2025 and beyond. We feel like this is nothing but upside here, and of course, the buyback will help us benefit from that and you, hopefully over time. We're excited about where we're heading, and we always appreciate your questions and your support, and you know where to find us. Thanks, everybody.
Mike Fries: And, as far as we're concerned, we think 2024 was a standout year. We hit 13 to 14 guidance metrics, spun off sunrise, and more or less achieved all the strategic goals. And we're setting ourselves up for an equally ambitious 2025.
Mike Fries: beyond. So, you know, we feel like this is nothing but upside here and, you know, of course the buyback will help us.
Mike Fries: benefit from that, and you hopefully over time. So we're excited about where we're heading and we always appreciate your questions and your support and you know where to find us, so thanks everybody.
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Liberty Global's Q4 2024 investor call. As a reminder, a replay of the call will be available in the investor relations section of Liberty Global's website. You can also find a copy of today's presentation materials. Thank you and have a wonderful day.
Speaker Change: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Liberty Global's fourth quarter 2024 investor call. As a reminder, a replay of the call will be available in the investor relations section of Liberty Global's website. You can also find a copy of today's presentation material.