Full Year 2024 TotalEnergies SE Earnings Call
Speaker Change: Good afternoon, good morning if you are connecting from the US.
Welcome to Total Energy's 2024 results and 2025 objectives meeting.
Speaker Change: We are today in the city, in London. I hope that you will appreciate that we brought the sun in London today, and you will appreciate also the view. For the people who want to follow us live, you can connect on our website totalenergy.com.
Speaker Change: The program today, we will start with the presentation of the 2024 results with Jean-Pierre. And then we will move to the outlook presentation for 2025 with Patrick. The presentation should last...
1 hour
Speaker Change: Then, we will move on to the Q&A session, where you can, of course, ask any questions you wish. We have, as usual, a dedicated line for people who could not reach, and we will bring you questions from time to time online.
Speaker Change: We need to finish around 4:15, 4:30, but before starting our day today, I invite Stéphane Michel, our President of Gas & Power, to come on stage to launch the meeting with a segment on safety.
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Thank you, Renaud. Good afternoon, everyone.
Speaker Change: As you know, total energy is building an integrated power pillar. And like any other industrial activity, this new development is coming with a new HSE risk.
Speaker Change: One of them is the risk of fire and explosion during the operation of our battery energy storage system, or BES.
In the industry, approximately 15 incidents occur per year.
Speaker Change: The most serious was in March of last year in Japan, where several fighters were injured by an explosion.
Speaker Change: Within TotalEnergies, our last incident occurred in 2023, I hope there were no injuries. Since then, we have worked on the specification of the battery design.
by adding rapid thermal evacuation detection.
Speaker Change: by adding the water fire suppression system, in addition to the passive one, and by adding extra ventilation to prevent the risk of explosion.
Speaker Change: In addition, we are now systematically implementing dedicated training for firefighters on how to fight a battery fire, as it is quite specific.
and also to limit the risks on our assets. Thank you.
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Speaker Change: Jean-Pierre? Yes, Jean-Pierre will be on stage. You have the first one, right? Okay. On security, sorry. It was for the battery and it's a good transition for our...
Speaker Change: the best of our colleagues in terms of comparison. It's the one on the left of our activity. And then you have the right part of our activity where we have introduced
Comparison also on the entirety of the power TRIER.
Speaker Change: by comparing our result with that of our colleagues in this industry, where you can see that we have been able to advance beyond 1.5%
Speaker Change: upstairs of what is done in the integrated power industry that has been achieved.
Speaker Change: and secondly, the way we build, because we have a huge exposure to manual construction.
It was for 50. Thank you, Jean-Pierre.
Speaker Change: I have to introduce you in the room because you have other members of the executive committee, but you can identify them. Nicolas is right there. Nicolas Terrasse. Vincent from Refinery & Chemicals. Bernard is next to Renaud. And at the back, Aurélien.
Speaker Change: And Namita, who is there. I believe I haven't forgotten anyone. She is in Japan, so she is not in London. But she is probably listening to us. Jean-Pierre, the floor is yours now. Thank you very much. It's a real pleasure to be here with you today to present the 24 results and the main achievements of the year.
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Jean-Pierre: As you know, our strategy is a balanced and consistent strategy.
Speaker Change: It is anchored on two pillars, so gas and oil mainly LNG on one side and the entirety of power on the other side. We made great progress in 2024 by executing this strategy and achieving free growth on both pillars, gas and oil, and the entirety of power.
Let's start with the main highlight of the year 2024.
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Speaker Change: On the first pillar, Oringas, we have started production on 5 major projects: Mérou 2 and Mérou 3 in Brazil, Agpo West in Nigeria, ANCOR in Mexico, and Phoenix in Argentina.
Speaker Change: We have launched four major oil projects, Grand Morgou in Suriname, Ataputu and Sepiatu, two other offshore projects in Brazil, and Camino in Angola.
Speaker Change: We are making progress in Namibia, where we are working towards the sanctioning of the first oil development, but Patrick will give you more details later.
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in the energy business.
Speaker Change: We have continued to expand our exposure to note gas prices in the case of the strategy presented to you during the CMD in New York in October. This means that we continue to mark our energy volumes.
Speaker Change: by signing several new medium-term contracts with Asian buyers, representing more than 6 million tons per year in 2024, mainly with an oil indexation.
Speaker Change: Secondly, we have increased the integration of oxygen and oxygen in the United States.
Speaker Change: by the interest of the water gas asset on Fort Clay Island, in Texas.
Speaker Change: We have also launched the Marsa LNG project in Oman, and we have become a significant gas operator in Malaysia through the acquisition of 100% of OMV Sapura.
Speaker Change: which offer exposure at LNG prices and a platform for the future, at low cost, low carbon.
large in terms of production.
Speaker Change: In summary on this first pillar, oil and gas, we incurred an upstream production growth forecast of 3% per year through 2030.
in a cash-accretive way.
Speaker Change: and we recorded an insurance reserve replacement ratio above 150%.
Let's now move on to the second pillar, integrated power.
We were very active in 2024 in this job as well.
Speaker Change: You see on the table the total purchases of the year, the main highlights of the year. I will come back to this later.
Speaker Change: It's very important. We have reached our cash flow target. We have an operating cash flow above 2.5. We are at 2.6 in 2024.
and I think that it is a very good achievement.
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Let's move on to the figure.
Speaker Change: We believe that the company has once again delivered solid results in 2024.
Speaker Change: in a stronger environment compared to the previous year, in 2023.
Speaker Change: The company generated almost 30 million dollars, 29.9 million dollars of TFF, from...
Speaker Change: coming from all the different businesses. Here you see the distribution, this cash flow generation, segment by segment.
Speaker Change: In the first place, the ENP contributed very strongly to this performance, with a cash flow generated in 2024 of 17 billion dollars, benefiting from the oil project enterprise that I have already mentioned in my presentation.
Integrated LNG Business
Speaker Change: dealt with a cash flow of 4.9 billion dollars. It was negatively impacted by lower average energy prices than the previous year, and low market volatility during the first three quarters of the year. This affected the gas trading results.
Speaker Change: But on the positive side, you will see that the Q4 results show the performance of the LNG company returning to the level of the first quarter of 2023.
I will make a zoom on that later.
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Speaker Change: The integration of powers continues these strong performance reports throughout the year, with high cash holdings, year after year.
For more information, visit www.lions-lions.fr
Speaker Change: From year to year, we have benefited from these two exceptions in the year 2022 and 2023 in relation to the Russian crisis.
Speaker Change: And we have also suffered from operational problems at some of our refineries, particularly in France and the United States.
However,
Speaker Change: You can see that the cash flow in the shelter remains above 6 million dollars, at 6.1 million dollars, demonstrating the resilience of the company integrated into the MODO shelter.
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Speaker Change: Let's move on to the results themselves. You see that we have posted a net income, an adjusted net income, of 18.3 million dollars and an IFRS result of 15.8 million dollars, mainly taking into account the requirements we recorded during the year on SunPower and the exits on certain African ventures.
in the exploration of the disease in South Africa.
Speaker Change: in relation to the arrival of these rocks, the balance adjustments and the effects of inventory variation.
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Speaker Change: In terms of profitability, we had a return on equity of 15.8% and a return on capital employed of 14.8% in 2024, which makes total energy, once again,
the number one in terms of right-of-way among our peers.
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Speaker Change: In terms of investment, you see the figure. We have invested 15.8 million dollars, within the range we gave you, between 17 and 18 million dollars.
Speaker Change: On the partner income side, we continue to increase dividends, with a distribution of 7.4 million dollars in 2020.
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Speaker Change: And we executed the sales program of 2 million dollars per quarter, which led us to a sale of 8 million dollars, if you consider all the quarters of 2024.
Speaker Change: Overall, this means that the employees for the year 2024 have reached 50%.
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Speaker Change: It is very important to note that this attractive distribution of partners was achieved while maintaining a very strong balance.
Speaker Change: You see here the result at the end of the year, at 8.3%.
Speaker Change: or about 9.5% when normalized. Why? Because this figure, 3.8%, benefited from a positive impact in the work curve for 1.5 billion dollars.
Speaker Change: In summary, we maintain the balance of the 4th line by increasing the owner's income in 2024.
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On investment sites.
Speaker Change: We remain disciplined in 2024, as is evident from this figure, with net investments being in the direction of 17 to 18 million, 18.8 million dollars for 2024.
Speaker Change: We continue to be very selective in the restructuring project. We invest in low-cost, high-retention, low-emission projects, and in projects resilient to traffic.
Patrick will return to this subject later, for the year 2025.
Speaker Change: As you can see with the footnote, the total energy is a balanced growth strategy, with a third of the 2024 CAPEX allocation to new electricity and gas projects.
Speaker Change: and 4.8 billion dollars for low-carbon energy, mainly for integrated power projects, for 4 billion dollars.
Speaker Change: The APEC 2024 consisted of 16.4 billion euros of organic APEC, but also 4.6 billion euros of acquisition and 3.2 billion euros of investment. Once again, this means that we continue to be very active on this side and on other sides.
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Speaker Change: Previously, I described our focus on acquisition on the upstream side, and on the entirety of the power, our acquisitions are focused on key deregulated markets, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, or Germany. I will come back to this later.
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Speaker Change: 2024 divestment, included in the extreme, our exit from Brunei, thus the sale of our E&P subsidiaries in Brunei.
Speaker Change: Basically, the closing of the second part of the deal with Couche-Tard, with the sale of a sales station in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg.
Speaker Change: And with full power, several investments, in line with our strategy to close our projects at COD, when production is ready to start,
Speaker Change: Just to give you two examples, so solar and battery project in the U.S. that we closed.
Speaker Change: in last December, and 50% of our interests in the SeaGreen Offshore Wind project in the United Kingdom.
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Speaker Change: We will now discuss each of the business segments in more detail.
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2024, I think.
demonstrate the death of our portfolio, our portfolio of abstraction.
Speaker Change: full of attractive and refreshing opportunities that convey in project sanctions, providing high retention replacements and robust reserves.
Speaker Change: Here you have the list of the main projects operating in 2024, four main projects on oxide and two projects on gas and LNG sites.
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This project increases by 3% per year, adding value.
Production Growth through 2030
Largely lump-sum EPC contracts on that project.
Speaker Change: The maps on the right of the screen highlight the investment case compiled in total energy.
Speaker Change: We already have the necessary resources to increase production and the money that will ultimately support the growth of dividends and partners' income.
Speaker Change: In other words, there is no need for us to make large acquisitions, large M&As, to feel any potential loss.
Speaker Change: In the name of our consistent strategy, we continue to explore and develop the upstream business.
Speaker Change: We have maintained a strong and consistent reserved life index for about 12 years, since 2018. Here you see the index for 2024.
12.4 years, it was 11.7 the previous year.
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23.
Speaker Change: I think it is clearly in contrast with some of our colleagues who consider the decline.
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Speaker Change: This means that the external and total energy will guide the group of worst by a large margin in terms of portfolio and longevity.
with a key advantage in the screening business.
and support the rent in the coming decades.
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Speaker Change: You also have the size of the proven and probable reserves, which are currently at 8.5 euros.
Speaker Change: We are not a company that is diminishing. We have replaced resources at a much faster rate than we are moving them, and at a faster rate compared to some of our colleagues.
Speaker Change: In 2024, our placeholder location had a robust production of 157%, in addition to an already strong figure of 141% in 2023.
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Speaker Change: The vast majority was achieved through organic development, which translates into a strong organic reserve replacement ratio of 150%.
Speaker Change: These reserved replacements clearly demonstrate the death of our portfolio and that we have managed to replace it year after year.
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Let's move on to the integration of the LNG company.
Speaker Change: As you can see on the map at the bottom left, the results for the month of October were the best of the year and benefited from the best market conditions. This means more volatility, more prices.
Speaker Change: The adjusted net income increased by 35% sequentially and the results returned to the first half, at 23 levels, to more than 1.4 billion dollars.
Speaker Change: The two blue bars that you see on the map at the bottom left.
Speaker Change: This performance was driven by a 6% higher hydrocarbon production for LNG, an average energy price of about 10 dollars per 1 million BTU, and ultimately, the results of LNG trades that were able to capture higher market volatility.
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Speaker Change: Despite this rebound from the quarantine, the results of the year 2024 were negatively affected by the relativity of low gas prices due to the cold of the 23-24 winter, high tax levels, particularly at the beginning of the year, low demand, and limited trading opportunities due to a globally balanced LNG market.
What are our expectations for the year 2025?
Speaker Change: As you can see on the table, a temperature of 24-25 degrees is expected.
Speaker Change: The end of the agreement between Russia and Ukraine for the import of Russian gas is also a factor that will contribute to improving the market.
Speaker Change: The tenacity in Europe should lead to more competition between Europe and Asia to attract or capture additional energy vessels, which would result in increased arbitrage opportunities for flexible cargos.
Speaker Change: between the United States, Europe, and Asia. This should benefit the entire energy sector, given our dominant position in greenhouse gases in the United States and our broad position in energy exports in the United States. We are number one, as you know, in this field.
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Let's move on to the integrated company.
Speaker Change: The year 2024 has been a continuation of our multi-annual record of performance in this business. It is definitely a business on the rise. Here you can see the progress we have made between the year 2021 and the year 2024.
Speaker Change: to improve the integrity of power in a company that has strong results.
Speaker Change: We were able to increase the cash flow from 21-24 by nearly four times over the period, once again reaching our goal of having the cash flow in 2024 above 2.5 billion dollars.
Speaker Change: And Roachier increased from 7% to 10%. That was our goal.
to be continued.
In 2024, the company improves integration into deregulated markets.
for the acquisition of flexible assets.
Speaker Change: PCGT, in the United States and the United Kingdom, has exceeded 3 gigawatts per year. Additionally, we have increased the storage capacity.
Speaker Change: through the acquisition of a major player in the German battery market called KION.
The middle of the girl
Speaker Change: We have also been active in consolidating our renewable portfolio as a partner in our strategy of closure and full power, mentioned in the introduction.
Speaker Change: We have succeeded in reducing the equivalent of 1.2 gigawatts of renewable projects and batteries.
Speaker Change: Which results in 1 billion dollars of recycled CAPEX, with more than 10% savings.
Speaker Change: In addition, the company has acquired VSB, a renewable project developer based in Germany, with a pipeline of 18 gigawatts, mainly in Germany, France, and Poland, with an expected vision.
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Speaker Change: Furthermore, in 2024, the company will strengthen its differentiated markets for clean power supply.
Speaker Change: For example, we have captured premium prices for fresh water at an industrial scale and large technology companies.
Speaker Change: and through the acquisition of CADRA, a renewable power aggregator in Germany, the company will be able to maximize the price exposure of purchases in deregulated markets.
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Speaker Change: On the emissions front, the 24 purchases show that we are ahead of our targets.
Speaker Change: This is the case for scope 1 and 2 operated emissions, scope 1 and 2 maintained emissions, and the carbon intensity of the life cycle.
Here is the table.
Speaker Change: Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions have been reduced by 36% compared to 2015, and at an absolute level. See the figure.
Speaker Change: The components 2 of our operational facility in 2024 were at 34 million tons.
38.8 million tonnes of CO2.
Speaker Change: on the impact of the inquiry on the new CCGT that I mentioned to you.
Speaker Change: of the acquisition we made in 2024, particularly in the United States and in the United States.
Speaker Change: On the maintenance side, we have the 15 reduction objectives to reduce the maintenance of our operation by 50% compared to the level we have in 2020.
Speaker Change: This reduction target was achieved a year earlier, in 2024. Methane emissions have now decreased by 55% compared to 2020 levels.
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Speaker Change: We have achieved this goal through a continuous reduction of dust and fugitive emissions, particularly in the ENP. Here is the example of Gabon, with the elimination of road dust two years earlier than planned.
Speaker Change: We will continue to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and we have set a new target for the year 2025 with a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60% compared to the year 2020.
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Speaker Change: The first decision we made last year was to deploy a continuous detection system across all operational assets.
Speaker Change: This means that in 2025, as you can see in the figure, more than 13,000 pieces of equipment for maintenance and continuous tracking will be developed and deployed.
Speaker Change: additional technologies to reduce methane emissions. Here are some examples to switch from gas to air instrumentation or to replace flares.
Speaker Change: And recently, we have reduced our carbon intensity by 17% compared to 2015, which is better than our initial target of 14%.
Speaker Change: I think this indicator reflects, as you know, the amount of CO2 emissions per unit of energy sold, which is actually what matters in our industry.
Speaker Change: This indicator translates perfectly the evolution of our energy mix and the implementation of our strategy.
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Speaker Change: The benchmark, therefore the positioning of the relative performance in terms of total energy compared with our partners on four important metrics, namely the reserve life index, the extreme production cost, the return on employed capital, and the dividend per share group.
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Speaker Change: As already mentioned, our strategy remains consistent, which allows us to deliver good results and to stay in a very good position in the competition.
Speaker Change: Starting with the extreme, our life index increased from 11.7 years in 2023 to 20.4 years in 2024.
Speaker Change: We agree with ExxonMobil and the leaders of our remaining partners, once again reflecting the death of our portfolio.
Speaker Change: We have the resources in our hands to continue increasing production and increasing cash flow, the underlying cash flow, for the years to come.
Speaker Change: And once again, we do not require big M&A to do that.
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Let's continue on the costs, the production costs of WebStream.
Speaker Change: Total Energy a consistently reported the lowest upstream production, so PECS per barrel.
Speaker Change: with a size of 20-24 which is below 5 dollars per barrel. This is of course a competitive advantage that we want to maintain, allowing the company to be resilient even in low-price environments.
Speaker Change: In terms of profitability, we are happy to remind that in 2024, once again, total energy is number one. In the context of our partners,
Speaker Change: This is the third time this year that we have achieved this performance, demonstrating once again that it is possible to be the most profitable major and to be a leader in the energy transition.
Speaker Change: to a growth of 25% over the last 5 years.
reflect our strong commitment towards our shareholder.
Speaker Change: We have maintained, as you know, the dividends during the COVID crises, which was not the case for all our colleagues.
Speaker Change: Some of our partners decided to cut the dividend at that time. And our dividend growth is implied by the DeepUpStream portfolio, a strong portfolio for cash flow.
Speaker Change: and balance it with a Gearing of 8.3% and 24% or 9.5% after normalization. And with this benchmark, I hand over to Patrick for the 25 Outlook.
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Speaker Change: Thank you Jean-Pierre for these 24, people say it's less than before, but the 2 years prior were exceptional for us.
Speaker Change: It's the largest result in the company's history, so it's always a good year. And in fact, once again, I said that...
Speaker Change: In 1923 and 1922, after the exceptional year, we enter a new era, as the balancing...
Speaker Change: The success of recent years has allowed us to implement the strategy we decided on, because we have entered a world where we have more, I would say,
And that's what we did in 2024.
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Speaker Change: Jean-Pierre has said several times that we have a deep portfolio of good opportunities. What I am going to show you is that in 2025,
Speaker Change: What we want to do is not just grow, but also have...
Speaker Change: to offer additional free income, which is the most important. That is why we have selected this title, 'Providing Access to the Economy'
Speaker Change: The residents, the partners, the returnees. This is the program for the 25. A few words about the markets.
Speaker Change: In fact, the old markets, people sent me a title, I think when you look at the figure, it's a bit stable, in fact, this line is quite flat.
Speaker Change: Ok, it was a bit lower in Iowa last year than the year before, but actually, we can say that...
Speaker Change: There are two differences in environmental factors. In 2023, there was a very high increase in demand due to the end of COVID-19 recovery in China.
Speaker Change: In 1924, the markets were richer compared to the demands.
Speaker Change: In the end, it's only 0.8 million barrels per day, but all the expectations on the application site were not met, in fact, as expected. And finally, in the end, OPEC Plus.
Speaker Change: are doing a good job of keeping this price, I would say, above 70-75 dollars per barrel. And I think that when we look at 25...
Speaker Change: I hope that the IEA, not us, we don't have experts, said that more than 1.1% of the demand on oil, which will be higher than 24%, in any case, it's more or less the average, a little less than 1% that we have observed in 20 years.
Speaker Change: Good news from 2004, by the way, is that the increase of old women in India was as...
Speaker Change: It is the largest in China. So we have a new growth engine in terms of energy. India is moving towards more infrastructure, more production business models than we had anticipated.
On the support side, of course.
Speaker Change: There are 25 million supplies of Nanopec, and the American administration is ready to push this production.
Speaker Change: Liquid production in the United States increased by 0.7 million barrels per day in 2024. And when we talk about liquid, it's actually more.
Speaker Change: NGRs than all, because in fact most of the liquid production in the U.S.
Speaker Change: It's because of the increase in gas and all the associated NGOs. Oil has increased by 0.3%, we planned for 0.2%, 0.3% for 2025. This is what we need to take into account. Brazil, we will come back to it, we will benefit from the development in Brazil.
Speaker Change: Rihanna too, we are not there, we do not intend it, we are next to Suriname.
Speaker Change: We'll see, the market will of course be a debate, I think, in 2025, between the American administration and OPEC+, so it will be an interesting debate to watch.
Speaker Change: We have been a bit cautious in the way we approached the year. We have based all the results I am going to show you, all the forecasts, on 70 dollars. There are more, 80, but if I can do it at 70, I could do it even more easily at 80, so you will have sensitivity in the presentation.
Speaker Change: On gas, it's rather different, I think. Last year, in 1924, you know, we had a very good, I think...
Speaker Change: We finished the winter of 2024 with high inventories, and in fact, the first half of the year,
Speaker Change: I would say that there is very low volatility in the gas markets.
Speaker Change: around 8-9 dollars per million BTU for TTF for 6 months, because there was not really a need to replace the storages, the storages were high. And this, of course, did not help, by the way,
Speaker Change: The capacity, not just the price, the absolute price was lower, but also the volatility, which did not help.
Speaker Change: For 2025, in fact, as you can see, the temperature is much colder in Europe, and you have another element, which is not only the temperature, but also the fact that the transition for Ukraine from gas to the ocean has been stopped.
Speaker Change: and we have observed that today we are already at this stage, there are still two months left before the end of the year.
Speaker Change: before the end of winter, to a level that has started to unfold the storage quite well.
Speaker Change: The greenhouse gas is 16 dollars per million BTU, so about 15 dollars per million BTU.
So we clearly anticipate, I would say, more volatility, 25%.
Are your prices?
Speaker Change: People might say that there will be additional energy capacity. It's quite limited, actually, when we map it out for 2025.
Speaker Change: We estimate this at around 20 million tons of new capacities that are coming online.
Speaker Change: Which makes 5%, which has not changed the fundamental trend. And you will probably see even more competition between European buyers, who need to replace their Asian buyers, and Asian buyers. So of course, you know, for us, there are two fundamental fees, TTF minus Henry Hub.
Speaker Change: And then you have the TKM-TTS, because it's the arbitration, and with the volumes we have in the United States, or the recharging capacity in Europe, of course.
Speaker Change: We can benefit from more arbitrations when prices rise. That's what we expect, we anticipate, we will see, for 2025. So, two different environments, clearly, for gas, energy, and oil.
KPI 425, our objectives.
Speaker Change: I am going to talk about growth, but growth is not enough.
We must offer more free laws.
Speaker Change: More volume, more energy, fewer emissions, and free cash. So overall, our energy production, when comparing greenhouse gases...
Speaker Change: and the electrons will increase by 5%, which will contribute to overall support for all the people on this planet. More than 3% increase.
on greenhouse gases.
Speaker Change: and more than 20% growth on the electric side. And we will reach more than 50 TWh. 50 TWh is half of the target for 2030. And in fact, the electricity production of TotalEnergies represents 10%.
Speaker Change: of greenhouse gas production in 2025. For those who wish to see the transition in March, that's the case. That's the reality. For me, it's a large company, and I would say that the successes of the past five years
Speaker Change: We are on the road and I would say that it is a great success.
It's the key.
We find that Vincent will do his best.
Speaker Change: It seems that there is a better increase in usage. I will return. Energy consumes about 40 million tons. We have no news, I would say.
I will return, we will be there.
Speaker Change: at 35, we have 26 at the end of 24 and we have exactly 9 gigawatts that are being built.
Today, 8.9, so maybe we would be missing 0.1.
Speaker Change: These are in the process of being built, so their reality is not just a goal, it's a matter of delivery, of course, of capacity. But once again, more and more, myself and the Assembly, we are increasingly focusing on the importance of production.
Speaker Change: electricity, because in the end, the result is more related to production, but to the great capacity of renovation.
Speaker Change: Emissions are reduced. Yes, we continue to be part of the global agenda. We need to produce more hydrocarbons, but with fewer emissions. In scope 1 and 2, we have set a target of less than 37 million tons.
Of course.
Speaker Change: One could say that he is not ambitious enough, but we have a difficulty that we are facing, which is that there are more gas-type fish in our portfolio, which we acquired in 2024, in the UK, in the US, and if it gets cold in France, we will have a higher usage, thus more CO2. What is important for us is also to see the reduction of greenhouse gas operations.
in 1924 and 233 million tons in 1925.
Speaker Change: Methane, we are clearly a leader in this field. I think it's an easy way for me, for the oxygen industry, to make a real contribution to the reduction of this oxygen.
Speaker Change: It's in our hands, it's about stopping to be afraid, it's about stopping to delve into things that are not high-tech, I would say, close-flare. So we have really involved the whole company, and Nicolas is really strong on this, he is the master of close-flare across all the facilities.
Speaker Change: We have all this equipment for the detection of mycene, as for oil, and I think we really want to be visitors and the teams are motivated. And lastly, because it is the marker of our transition strategy,
Speaker Change: what is the carbon intensity of energy cells. We have reduced it by 17%. We want to continue. We are actually ahead of schedule.
because we provide the electrons that decarbonize our cells.
Speaker Change: But to conclude, we have chosen three indicators. I will give you other indicators in the presentation.
Prediction Cost
Speaker Change: It may not be spectacular, but that's what it's about. Other companies of my colleagues have invested in large-scale plants. I think we did it.
Speaker Change: Between 2015 and 2020, we had profits and today, we are strong with our team and we are very efficient at managing our challenges.
Speaker Change: It's 5 dollars per bar. The CAPEX, I will come back to this topic, I'm sure there will be questions. 17, 17.5 million dollars for the rank. And the cash flow from operations, more than 29 to 70 dollars.
Speaker Change: We have reached 29.8%, so it's a great improvement. There is free money.
Speaker Change: There are additional money laws, and the goal of my presentation is to tell you where it actually comes from, so that you can certify that all the balance of all business models, and the strong returns we wish to provide to partners, are in secure hands, which is true.
Speaker Change: Furthermore, the CAPEX first. It's true that we gave you guidance of 18 million dollars, I think, in New York on the organic CAPEX. Today, we have come with the organic CAPEX of 17, so a reduction, and a total CAPEX, including M&A, of 17, 17.5.
Speaker Change: Why? In fact, it's because we did a bit of work, actually.
Speaker Change: There is no discount on the good opportunities we have in our portfolio, so I am completely aligned with Darren Woods, from this point of view, there is no change. But at the same time, we have many projects, and so with Nicolas, and with the team, we have developed many projects.
Speaker Change: not to surpass the team by continuing to invest in small projects.
Speaker Change: Because we also know that we have a workforce, and we cannot ask them to do everything at the same time. This does not prevent the global production profile that we have to offer you, but it's a matter of streamlining, of focusing on being efficient in the way we spend our money.
Speaker Change: The other decision we made is more in molecules with less carbon, it was 800 or 900 million dollars in the 2024 report, it's only 500 million dollars in the budget. We have learned some lessons.
And today we consider that it is better in terms of...
Speaker Change: Companies like Évite Charging or Biogas need support for equity. We don't have enough revenue for all of that, to be honest, in terms of allocating the company's equity.
Speaker Change: Total equity is not our priority, and we have learned lessons. This does not mean that we will not continue to do it, but we will move to business models with less capital intensity.
Speaker Change: It's not important. On the SAF molecules, we continue. In fact, the budget, you know, we have this big project at the Grand Prix with the Vincent team, which will finish before the end of the year, so it's the end of the project, so we did the top.
Speaker Change: It's for that too, but 500 million dollars to reduce low-carbon molecules, because we have learned lessons.
Speaker Change: It doesn't mean that we won't continue this strategy, it means that we are...
Speaker Change: by allocating our capital and equity in the best way. That is the reason why we went up to 17 or 17.5 million. We have always, in the case of delicate market conditions, identified another billion that we could decide to allocate.
Speaker Change: to arbitrate during the year. At this stage, it is not necessary. The power is at 80 dollars, 75-80, so it is not a good situation.
Speaker Change: It is also true that, compared to September, we continue to execute EPC contracts, and many of them are largely slow. Therefore, we have a good view of security.
for the year 2025 and what we are going to spend.
Speaker Change: If there was an overrun, it's not in 2025, it's more in 2028, so I hope there won't be one. That's also why we are confident. Of course, it's a good job, it's an effort, but continuing to streamline even more when you have a large portfolio of opportunities, I think it's a good discipline.
Speaker Change: In fact, here you have the list of new projects, new productions, which represent 150,000 bucks per day. What is remarkable on this chart is that 6 out of the 8 projects have already started.
So it's mainly a matter of ramp-ups.
Speaker Change: We have two projects that need to come on stage, Balimore in the Gulf of Mexico and Merufo in Brazil, where the operator is a bit more optimistic than is said, so that's good. Furthermore, on the characteristic of this slide, you have three gas projects.
Phoenix, Tira and Jérôme in Malaise.
Speaker Change: You have 5 oil projects, it's important for the next slide. And, moreover, Autotile operates on 4 oxygen pieces.
Speaker Change: Chevron 3 and Chevron 2. So we are connecting on two of our larger operators, but good operators. I am therefore quite comfortable with this figure of 3% because there are a lot of ramps and we are in the process of delivering them.
Speaker Change: Of course, what is more important is not only the high production, but also the additional income.
Speaker Change: And that's the good news and the important news when we look at this case, it's that the group of 3% of our upstream production, more than 3, will be translated in terms of cash reforms from operations into an increase of more than 8%. In fact, this portfolio of projects
and, of course, the portfolio in Brazil.
Speaker Change: in Mexico, are more efficient. This means that for the same amount of CAPEX, in fact, more or less the same amount between the two years, the organic CAPEX, you will have
Speaker Change: an increase of 1.5 billion euros in free cash that will come from this growth.
Speaker Change: I think it's important, the total energy, its value in relation to volume, it's not just growth, it's also the distribution of more free income.
Speaker Change: One of the countries that has succeeded, in a way, and that will contribute to this free cash, is Brazil. In fact, Brazil will become the most important country in our portfolio in 2025 in terms of...
Daschle Firm Operations.
Speaker Change: It's new, you may not have noticed, but actually, since 2015, we have built a portfolio.
We will have 8 fields.
producing 180,000 barrels per day.
Speaker Change: It's a success story. It's quite interesting, by the way, to build such a position. The margin of advantage at $70 per barrel is about $35 per barrel. In Brazil, we will continue to invest because we have two other projects that we have sanctioned in 2024, Cepiatu and Atapoutou, which will contribute to this project.
Speaker Change: no more free money in 2030, but the free money in 2025, at 70 dollars per hour, will be 1.4 billion dollars.
and 10 dollars per bullet would add 400 million euros.
Speaker Change: It is a strong position that we have built since 2015. Once again, we operate the APA, Petrobras is our operator on most of it. And we had access, if you look at the history of the cost of access to all these resources,
It was actually...
Speaker Change: We have not discovered the counter-psychological access costs, but between the contracts we made with Petrobras in 2015-2016, and the tournaments we participated in, with weak competitions,
We succeeded in making a good demonstration.
Speaker Change: on how to build a strong position in a new country. We also have potential for exploration. We continue to think about it.
Thank you for watching this video!
Speaker Change: The other countries I would like to touch on, because I'm sure we will have many questions, are the Namibians, so I preferred to anticipate the questions. Our friends have made some decisions, and in fact, we know, to be clear, we share the same partner and we have the data. We have data that shares...
Speaker Change: between our friends and ourselves, so that we can compare. It's true that we were probably, I would say, luckier or better, but they selected a block where, clearly, the discovery of Venus has better characteristics, better physical characteristics.
Speaker Change: The oil density in place is 10 to 20 million per barrel of oil compared to the adjacent discovery which was less than 5. This is a 6th reservoir of 80 to 120 meters.
Speaker Change: The permeability is not very high, I will come back to that, but it is 2 to 4 millimeters of steel compared to, I would say, less than a millimeter. All of this actually makes the commerciality of this discovery...
The accomplishment is in our hands, we are working on it.
Speaker Change: That is why we are not making a recording, because in the country, we want to transform this discovery into production. So probably, we have there the art of the system, in the northwest of the Orange Basin of Namibia.
Speaker Change: So there are challenges, which does not mean that it is not crazy. Yes, the permeability is not high. It is high if you are, or if you are in our license, it is less high than that of the neighbor.
Speaker Change: The challenge is that we don't have arrows, I remind you, we don't have arrows, no arrow policy.
Speaker Change: We need to re-inject the gas into the low permeability matrix, which means that we cannot... the plateau we will reach will be lower.
Speaker Change: Considering that it will be a very long plateau and a long...
Speaker Change: I am not going to tell you less than 20 dollars per barrel, but today we are confident that we can achieve 20 dollars per barrel in development costs and also, of course, continue to minimize our greenhouse gas emissions with a target of 15 kg of CO2 per barrel on this development.
Speaker Change: I do not thank you for sanctioning it before the end of the year. I know it's an internal objective. I'm talking more about the beginning of the first half of the year, but it's a good project.
Speaker Change: This is good news for Namibia, and of course for TotalEnergies. Our neighbors to the north are not surprised by their results, because the last mine we built at Tambouti was not good.
Speaker Change: So we are not surprised that the neighbors to the North have not made any discoveries. It's quite consistent.
Speaker Change: We are at the center of this ecosystem. I would like to add that, in fact, we have a certain potential.
Speaker Change: We continue to explore, and this is not the end. Venice is the center of engineering and projects. But we will develop.
Speaker Change: I think that during the second quarantine, the RIG is on its way, Marula, which is a great prospect, you can see it south of Venice.
Speaker Change: We have another one on this block, in Namibia, which is called Olam, on the next block.
It's...
Speaker Change: It's a different theme, but it's an interesting exploration to explore.
Speaker Change: We plan to do it at the end of 2025 and at the beginning of 2026, because we would like to have a full campaign between Olympe and then in South Africa. We have taken some positions on the orange basin from the South Africa aspect, where we have two prospects to develop.
Speaker Change: One is called Vultress and the other, Nela. The process of permutation in South Africa is a bit longer than in other countries. The idea is that, in 2025-2026, we will have a circle coming and going from these three worlds of exploration.
Thank you for watching this video!
Thank you for watching this video!
Speaker Change: So it's an important year for Namibia for the progress of the project. On energy integration, I will not go back over all of Jean-Pierre's comments that explain to you that I mentioned the environment for the gas price. Yes, we think we could have a better environment, not only in absolute terms, but also in terms of volatility.
Speaker Change: If we maintain the performance of the fourth quarter, we must, and our goal is to return, after a year where we are at 4.8 billion dollars in rent, to return.
Speaker Change: The goal is to obtain 6 billion euros. Stéphane and his teams are making decisions. The year 2025 is also a year where we must make progress.
Speaker Change: There are many energy projects that will come in 26.
Speaker Change: It is a case of Energia Costa Azul in Mexico and Norfield East in Qatar.
Speaker Change: Nigeria LNG 27 will be ahead of 26, so little impact on the 26th performance.
Speaker Change: It is also, as you can see, we have six energy projects that are under construction. It is therefore, of course, another part of the execution efforts of all the TotalEnergies teams.
Speaker Change: Finally, much was done in 2024 with the strategy of securing a money-related contract with Asian buyers. This is a very good accomplishment. We will continue to work on this.
Speaker Change: Because if we have the opportunity, and if we think that the market could improve by the end of the decade, it's a good way to take advantage of it if we have good contracts that are all linked.
That's all for this video on the entirety of the power.
Speaker Change: This production of electrons represents 10% of the wind turbine production, so I think it's a good result.
Speaker Change: ...block on a roadmap, half-way of 30 objectives. In terms of cash flow from operations...
Speaker Change: They say 2.5 to 3 billion, we made 2.6.
Speaker Change: We benefited, in 2024 and 2023, from a number of churches, which was made possible thanks to the high electricity price of 2022. We did not do it in 2025, but we have additional productions, we have new energy-power plants, so we are confident that we will be able to...
Speaker Change: we are once again meeting these objectives in terms of generating money. It is not written, but now the 10% creator on capital employment, even...
Speaker Change: The increase is of course on Stéphane's planet and his teams.
We are working, but I will answer the questions.
It's clear that the landscape has changed.
The European refinement margin, which is important for us,
largely above, but it was, I would say, a hysterical market.
We benefit from this.
Speaker Change: In 2024, we will return to a kind of normalization, a bit low, because 25 dollars per ton is a break-even. I prefer 35 dollars per ton. As we are optimistic, we have set up a budget of 35 dollars per ton.
Speaker Change: But maybe, if there are tariffs on Canadian crude oil, we could reach it. Yesterday, it was at 40, so it's not impossible. You know, sometimes, there are events on this planet that can help you. You don't control everything.
Speaker Change: But what we need to do is why we have a target of 7 billion euros at the bottom, compared to 6.1 billion this year, because there were also some mistakes, to be clear, on the operational side.
Speaker Change: of which we estimate a little less than 1 billion euros. But we hope, and Vincent and his teams are really motivated, to eliminate this error.
Speaker Change: a very poor performance in the dungeons, which was not...
Speaker Change: Indeed, they are doing well. We hope you will be driving again in March.
Speaker Change: It's a challenge that has lasted for years, we have changed the management, we hope they will offer a better reward. So it's a matter of going back to the fundamentals, of course, cost discipline, but also offering the energy efficiency program, which should offer 100 million dollars.
a large part of our German, Dutch, Belgian network.
Speaker Change: In fact, the marketing revenue in 2024 is 2.3 billion dollars. It was exactly the same, but 2.3.
Speaker Change: We sold them for 3.2 million euros and I haven't seen any impact on the revenue generated by the division. It's remarkable and I can congratulate Bernard's team.
Speaker Change: So, in the end, you can tell me that we wouldn't need to have 100 million more, but I like the idea that we are hiding these networks in environments where we are not strategic assets. And in the end, we continue the performance. The trading is going well too.
Speaker Change: That is why we object to 7 billion euros of improvement, but we have good reasons. It is not just an assumption of margin. It is fundamentally about solving the operational issues we have, and continuing to deliver in marketing and commerce, according to our objectives.
I am resilient.
Speaker Change: All this has given us, and I will give you the map, but first, the Board of Directors, look at it, you know, we have growth ahead of us, growth in free cash flow, and I mentioned 1.5 billion euros of additional free cash.
Speaker Change: By reaching 70 dollars of the EPSRIM supply in 2025, we have planned 10 million. It is a step between 2024 and 2030. It is a good step.
Speaker Change: We are confident, we have a good balance. The Board of Directors, for the third time this year, has decided to increase the dividend by 7%.
Speaker Change: Here, this is not for the full exercise, it's a dividend paid annually. That's why you see 7.2. But it's paid over a year, you know, it's a combination.
Speaker Change: of two fiscal years and interim dividends. So, in fact, over the last three years, we have increased the dividends by more than 20%. So it's quite...
Speaker Change: It's a very good reward for our partners. We have converted the euro per share, as our dividend is denominated in euros, into dollars per share on this chart, because we have investors in dollars.
Speaker Change: It's true that they benefit from higher growth, at 1.1% in the last two years, at 1.0405, it's a bit lower. But the advantage for American investors...
Speaker Change: in 2022-2025, compared to 7.1% for European investors, it would be between 6.5% and 7.8%. So I would say it depends on the size of the exchange.
It's a very good upgrade.
Speaker Change: It's a chart of strength, I don't know if it's a Mondrian chart, but you know, we have bars of 2 billion, 2 billion, 2 billion. I told you in New York...
Speaker Change: are very reasonable, so we are keeping the 2 billion. I know there were some questions, Max, between you, after the result of the third quarantine.
Speaker Change: We knew there would be a way to return this right on working capital. We tried to find a way to normalize it during the quarantine, but it had fiscal effects.
Speaker Change: 8.3% yield is low, but I remind you that we are at 7% at the end of 2022, at 5% at the end of 2023, at 8.5% at the end of 2024. So the record of yield under 10% is quite well established.
Speaker Change: We have space, and that's why I want to confirm that the goal is to maintain these 2 million dollars in repayments per quarter. We are doing the math, you can find it on this chart to the left.
Speaker Change: It's 33 billion euros, so you have a gap of 4, which represents a 2 to 3% increase in yield, less than a 2.5% increase in yield at 70 dollars, at 80 dollars, it's almost nothing.
Speaker Change: In fact, considering the sensitivity, we have 1 billion. It's an equation that is completely affordable, with a strong balance.
Speaker Change: That is why I confirm our intention to maintain these 2 million dollars per neighborhood. As I told you, in New York, you have a sensitivity that has not fundamentally changed on this chart.
Thank you for watching this video!
Speaker Change: To conclude my presentation, here is a chart that we showed you in New York. I think there is more energy, fewer emissions, more free waste. We have just introduced the year 2025 to remind you of the framework we are in, to increase energy production by 4% per year beyond the 6 years until 2030.
Speaker Change: We will do it at 5% in 2025, electricity, electricity at 20% will be at 10%, at half in 2025, fewer emissions, and the cash flow which is very important. What is remarkable is that, as you can see, at 70 dollars,
Speaker Change: 12 dollars per million BTU TTF and 35 dollars per tonne, which is more or less 10 dollars per barrel, only difference from 24. We could deliver a free cash, which is the same at 70 but at 80, and so at 80, an additional 3 billion.
Speaker Change: This is a strong message that I want you to keep in mind. We are moving forward, but we are moving forward for value and we are moving forward for accretive growth and additional free cash flows to fuel revenues for our partners.
Speaker Change: The last slide hasn't changed. It is very consistent in total energy. I strongly believe in total energy.
Speaker Change: It's a world, but resilience is essential in terms of strategy, so being resilient is important.
Speaker Change: This is the result of a very deep portfolio for our team. You saw it during the 157 renewal bookings, after 141 last year, which will continue to increase, which will accommodate growth.
Speaker Change: We are in a good position with the European Union to benefit from arbitration, and that's what Stéphane's teams are currently doing. The integration of power is underway according to the roadmap we have implemented.
Speaker Change: and I have given you all the elements of the financial framework to support this strategy.
Speaker Change: Thank you for your attention and I will be happy to answer your questions with Jean-Pierre and all the members of the Assembly's executive.
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Ok, let's move on to...
like Q&A, so maybe Henri?
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Speaker Change: Hello, thank you for asking me the question. This is Henry Tarr at Berenberg. Just a few questions. In Namibia, I think you mentioned Tamboti, maybe it didn't live up to expectations. If you could give a little more detail on that, it would be...
Speaker Change: That would be great. And then, regarding the LNG company, what flexibilities do you have this year in terms of available cargos to drive this additional cash flow in the integrated LNG company? Thank you.
Ok, Tom Botti, Nicolas, do you want to respond?
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Speaker Change: The permeability was low, less low than for Venus, which Patrick explained while going north.
So, the flow sealed, but the flow limited.
There is no commercial aspect, it's clear.
Speaker Change: Game is over on Dambauti. And in fact, it was a risk we knew because when we drilled one of the Venezuela appraisal, we saw in the north some degradation.
Speaker Change: But we wanted to develop it because it was a significant prospect, and if needed, there could be an additional one. I would say that Petro-Physics and Arpu are more in the same type of range as what has been written by some of our colleagues.
Thank you for watching this video!
Speaker Change: We know the northern limit, we know the northern and western limit, so we continue to look at the rest of the block.
Thank you for watching this video!
from Europe or Asia, and as Patrick mentioned,
Speaker Change: The spread between GKM and TGF should be quite volatile, because there are few jobs in Europe, so we expect people to fight for this LNG. We will therefore be able to diversify the cargo based on the best market for this American position.
Speaker Change: When we have a long-term contract, we are generally close to rediversifying or diversifying the cargos with profit partnerships, so it's quite flexible. In fact, that's the advantage of being a corporate portfolio.
Speaker Change: And we have the capacity for energy recharging in Europe, I remind you, 20 million tons. We are all welcome to take all this energy. So the infrastructure helps us from this point of view.
Thank you for watching this video!
And who is it?
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Speaker Change: Two questions, please. The first is about tariffs. It's clearly a very high-profile topic at the moment. You have had exposure to different parts of the U.S. energy value market, to renewable chains, to LNG plants.
Speaker Change: the LNG plant value chain, but also, perhaps, certain parts of your business sheltered. Secondly, on gas, there is a big debate about the winter in Europe, with, potentially, Germany forcing 90% of the inventory by the end of the winter.
Speaker Change: Do you see the market being able to do this or a potential repeat of 2022 with tough price competition with Asia?
Speaker Change: Secondly, I think it's clear, but for me, that's why I sent a message. I think that in the situation of European architecture, if we are too aggressive in replacing our architecture, and we don't give them a little more time, and the situation is not exactly the same for Germany, because we have more gas terminals today. You know, in 2022, we were all scared of not having...
Speaker Change: We are trying to put in as much storage as possible because there was no infrastructure. At the same time, we have built, we have bought floating units.
Speaker Change: In Germany, you have 5 million tons of capacity, but also in France, we have one. So we have more infrastructure.
A little more, but if we go to Rush...
Speaker Change: The only way to act is to take the energy from Asia and pay more. And again, this can be inflationary. So, I think today we have a risk of that.
Speaker Change: It's not good for European customers, for a European energy player like Total Energy, it's not necessarily bad, but it's up to us. For me, the situation is not the same, because we have built infrastructures, so the Europeans should take that into consideration. And not only because in 2022, we were lucky.
Speaker Change: of warming capabilities on the continent. Today, we had some. Not all, but we have more.
Speaker Change: This is my message. I think we may have higher prices, gas prices, and tensions. That's why the arbitration of the United States,
Speaker Change: Which, even because of the Panama Canal, is even more important. This could be another piece of the puzzle.
Shame of the price!
We are entering the new world.
Speaker Change: I said it at the table yesterday, none of us talked about it.
Speaker Change: has never worked in the world of tariffs. That was the old world. We built a global world without tariffs. We thought everything would move easily.
I mean, I think we have...
Speaker Change: Pragmatic guys are able to make decisions and change their minds. It's good leadership when you see that you can score points.
Speaker Change: We might have difficulties, it's true that there are changes in values, but this is not only true for refining, but also for car manufacturing. Many storage parts move across the borders between Mexico and the United States, so we might have this type.
Speaker Change: This is not good news. There can also be good effects for European refinements if you have a tariff on heavy powder oil in Canada.
Speaker Change: Yes, you might have your effect, but at the end of the day, I think the American administration will be pragmatic.
Speaker Change: in the interest of business people. Fundamentally, it is a country where business comes first, more than in Europe. In Europe, we cannot shout, they do not listen to us much, unless we make strong decisions.
It's more open, including the President.
Speaker Change: I would say, today you have a kind of, I think 25 is a bit warm, so let's be ready.
Speaker Change: But maybe the best for us is not to make hasty decisions in the wrong way, to observe the policies that remain in place. It's the same for fiscal policies in the United States. But let's see what will happen in Congress.
Speaker Change: Once again, I asked Stéphane this morning to give me the map of the federal territories that are prohibited.
Okay, see you again.
Stéphane Michel: In Texas, there is no federal territory at all, just to be clear. It's the Rockies, it's part of the federal territories. And when we went through the history of the United States, we went beyond the Rockies. So, I mean, let's see what will happen. I think the best...
Stéphane Michel: My opinion is that we need to observe, not overreact, and that the next six months will give us more handles for questions and enthusiasm at the beginning of the administration.
Stéphane Michel: There are bad effects, but there may be good effects on the other side. It's something to observe. I take your point of view. Yesterday, I said at the table, we must be adaptable and react.
Ok. And Martine?
Thank you for watching this video!
Stéphane Michel: Hello, this is Martin Rad from Morgan Stanley. I have two questions for you, Jérôme. I wanted to ask you about Suriname. StartSoli, in Suriname, in a recent offer, suggested a level of CAPEX.
Speaker Change: for the project that was perhaps a bit beyond what we generally understood.
Stéphane Michel: If you have a comment on this subject, are you comfortable with the CAPEX?
Stéphane Michel: And the other thing I wanted to ask you is the question of exportation. It's a bit of an open question, but of course, exportation was very, very profitable, generally in the industry, in 2022, in 2023. It dropped a lot in 2024. But it is difficult to know exactly how much. Can you perhaps say a bit more about...
Stéphane Michel: how the economy and the evolution of trade have evolved and in more detail, what are your ambitions in this job for the future, how do you see this job changing?
Speaker Change: I don't know exactly, the budget is 10.5 million euros, as we mentioned in September, there is no change at all. I don't know exactly, maybe they are using it, they have a small production, to manage money.
Speaker Change: I don't know if you have any questions, but there is no change at all. There is no impact. We are very close to them and we are monitoring them. There is no impact. There are no new elements compared to the budget we gave you.
So, from this point of view...
Speaker Change: Regarding trading, actually, honestly, there are different things. We have been quite open with you about gas trading. On the old trading, actually,
Speaker Change: It's true that there was an incredible year in 1922, but the year 1924 was a strong year, a good year on our side. We didn't see a lower year, but a strong year.
Speaker Change: It's even higher than it was before 2021, when I compare the results. I think the teams have adapted. It's really related to market volatility. Traders complain when things are flat. They don't know what to do, it's flat, they don't like it.
Speaker Change: When it's a bit more of the Rocky Mountains, they are happy. For me, I'm not sure I compete with them.
Speaker Change: It's like we said, they are strong taxpayers. We don't ask them to take more risks. It's up to them to manage their business. And if they have better results, they have a better salary. It's quite simple.
So we have strong motivation.
Thank you for watching this video!
Speaker Change: Turn there, please. But on all sides, there was no mistake.
Thank you for watching this video!
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Speaker Change: Hello, thank you for taking my question. This might be for Stéphane regarding integrated power, but there is a lot of excitement around data centers and the power demands associated with them. I am wondering if you could give us your perspectives on what you are hearing from clients. What are they looking for? And in particular, could you make a small comparison and contrast between the regions where you are, the United States, Northern Europe, and perhaps Asia? Thank you.
Stéphane may have complimented me.
Speaker Change: Many comments. First of all, you know that on all sides, our integrated business model power is linked to the combination of renewable and flexible assets.
There it is.
Speaker Change: And we strongly believe that this market, what we call the power of the clean enterprise, we have succeeded in selling, we have been effective and we have sold 3.3 TWh per year at this stage to different clients, 25% to GAFAM, by the way, so we are starting to enter this market.
Speaker Change: It is not an unoperated asset with Clearway, it is 7 TWh per year, so we benefit from some part of this market. But you know what we are looking at? We are not in the infrastructure business.
It's a type of regulated business, that's not all.
Speaker Change: This is not our goal. What we want to offer, and we are always having dialogues, we have dialogues with some hyperscalers, about combining renewables, greenhouse gases, injections, and batteries. Renewables, in fact, reduce costs.
Speaker Change: Because when you use the Nosevol, it helps to reduce the price for the PPA. So it's a more expensive source of electricity. But of course, they want 24-7.
Reliability, we must combine it with CCGT batteries.
Speaker Change: It's a combination where we think we can have not only reliable electricity, but also more expensive electricity, which is honestly the goal. Of course, today, they want a lot of volume. They are always shouting that they don't have enough.
Speaker Change: But if it's expensive, I'm not sure they will want to get it. The other points, I am listening to a concept that came from the United States, about a large infrastructure park, I would say, or a huge park, filling several Gawads, more...
Speaker Change: In our dialogue, and we discussed it with Stéphane yesterday, in our dialogue with the hyperscalers, they attach a lot of value to reliability.
Speaker Change: Reliability does not only occur if you have a park independent of the grid, but that does not mean a reliable system. Some hyperscalers, which we have talked about, are also willing to have a connection to the grid.
Speaker Change: from your own resources to bring, to renew the electricity of the grid.
Speaker Change: It's more this business we are in, this integrated business, which takes profits from the asset, but which builds capacities as infrastructure. Maybe Stéphane wants to add to my comments.
Stéphane Michel: So, yes, we are looking at that, but more in the dynamics of what we call the entirety and the strength of a firm power.
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Speaker Change: Just to add to what Patrick said about his geography, there is a clear focus on the United States first, and particularly in Texas, where we have a large presence, and as Patrick mentioned, where we can
Speaker Change: which offer a mix of batteries and renewable electricity, and we are starting to see interest in some European countries.
Speaker Change: existential pipelines and assets under construction. Otherwise, it will be quite tricky to deliver on time.
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Chris, okay.
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Chris Couplin: Thank you. Chris Couplin from Back to America. Two questions, please.
Speaker Change: Patrick, I think you have powerfully demonstrated how you are busy expanding organically.
Speaker Change: Nevertheless, I wanted to ask you where you think it is more attractive to buy rather than build today? Where do you see the best opportunities in the M&A market?
Speaker Change: And what are your ambitions until 2030? And my second question, I feel like someone has to ask it, it's about Mozambique. Your figures for 2030, which you presented in October, include Mozambique. What updates can you give us? Thank you.
We don't need M&A.
Speaker Change: At 70, 80 dollars per barrel, it's not the right time to buy.
Speaker Change: We will see again, as you know, if we continue to have opportunities for total energy in the heat gas of the United States, to continue to replace it. We have done two, but we need to have more.
it's really for me.
Speaker Change: These are good opportunities and we have teams today who are looking at us and trying to be imaginative and creative. We have heat oil producers, we have a lot of associated gas with the most negative values, so there might be a way to make a deal and we are working with some of them.
Speaker Change: That's what's left, and today the environment is quite light, so it's quite accessible, I would say, that kind of thing. Otherwise, honestly, I'm not... I'm not... We don't have a big...
Happy New Year to you.
We are working on other ideas.
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on the integrated power, yes, we continue to...
Speaker Change: that we will continue to acquire, but it's a more recent capital, you know, because...
and Vigier, yes Jean-Pierre.
Jean-Pierre: I said it was a good purchase, we sold 1.2 gigawatts.
Speaker Change: They closed, they recycled a billion. The goal was more than 2 million rather than 1.2 million, to be honest.
I remember Bernard Pinatel's goals.
Speaker Change: Jean-Pierre is kind, but he agrees with his colleagues. But in fact, we are also more targeted. We know what we missed. These are two countries on which we were almost closed. And finally, we had a problem with the buyers, so we decided not to close it.
Speaker Change: It's 2 gigawatts per year, it's a recycling of 2 billion euros, and these 2 billion euros should help us. That's why we are already at the plateau in terms of integrated categories, even if we want to continue to grow. So for me, it's a question of whether the model should continue to recycle this capital in order to grow the asset.
It's very fundamental.
Speaker Change: And on this point, I would say that it is quite obvious, what are we attacking? In Germany, we need to tackle one or two greenhouse gases to maintain, then we will have the complete value chain.
Speaker Change: The United States, PGM, things like that. But again, today, in the United States, greenhouse gas plants, because of these hyperscalers, they are so expensive, we are lucky to go beyond. So, let's wait, wait and see. You know, today, it's very stationary, it could come back, you know.
Speaker Change: It's that kind of example, but it's not a big deal.
Speaker Change: And besides, Jean-Stéphane has already used up a lot of his M&A acquisition budget with the VSB deal. But it's a business where we can tell you that they have a lot of ideas.
Speaker Change: But it's good for me, because we can be selective and fundamentally on the integrated M&A capability. More and more together, we know exactly what we want to achieve.
It's nothing enthusiastic, but...
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Speaker Change: Solar in Ireland, I'm not sure it was the best idea of the team.
Speaker Change: I am sorry for the Irish person in the room, I have nothing against the Irish, but I sometimes have French ideas. The question is also about Mozambique. Yes, Mozambique is more important.
Speaker Change: Once again, I met the President of Mozambique, there wasn't much press, at the beginning of last week, last Monday.
Speaker Change: The energy minister came, he was already there before, he wasn't a minister, but he was the head of the agency, the defense minister, all the same people, so I would say that the continuity regarding...
Speaker Change: The projects in Mozambique and energy and environments have a desire for continuity. This is important. In terms of security, the agreements they have with other countries remain in place. They are dedicated, I would say, to bringing the best possible to the project.
Speaker Change: As you know, we had a debate with export credit agencies. I think the one that will be resolved quickly will be the one on the other side of the Atlantic.
Speaker Change: I think I would be surprised if the Trump presidential administration were against...
Speaker Change: It's an energy project they approved 4 years ago, so I think it's a matter of weeks. It's important because it was a big part of the export of credits. For Anadarko, we did all that, but it was almost 5 billion. So once we have this piece, the financing is done, I would say.
Speaker Change: I would like to remind some of the other export creditors, in fact all, but two have been approved, one has signed a contract and we have given them a lot of money, so I am ready to exercise all my contractual rights, not just me, the partners of Mozambique Energy, because we are only 26% of them.
Speaker Change: OK. And then, on the project side, the question is to be able not only to support security...
Speaker Change: At Fonji, which is good. On the peninsula where we want to build, we have no doubt.
Speaker Change: It's even better than before, because everything has been reinforced, so I have no problem.
Speaker Change: On the contractors' side, they are all ready to start again. The project, as we told you, is about 20 million.
Speaker Change: And we did not anticipate, to be honest, last year, these difficulties with the export credit agency, particularly over there, because there was no signal.
when it enters politics, mixed politics.
Speaker Change: So we are victims, but he is back on the path from my point of view.
And some the Buttes.
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Lydia ?
Speaker Change: In 2030, to answer your question precisely, in our roadmap, it's 3 million tons of energy.
Speaker Change: It may be the case for Mozambique, but it may not be the case for Mozambique, but maybe there is something else. So, from this perspective, I think we have different cards to play, to meet. And once again, it's more the value that I want to have, and not just the volume.
Speaker Change: We are not going to say that we are working hard on Papua, I am sure I will have a question about Papua.
Speaker Change: and we are going to very strongly unite all our forces with ExxonMobil to find new ideas and relaunch the project. We are not sorry to undertake this project, but we are working hard to get it back on track, an acceptable CAPEX that delivers value.
Speaker Change: I think all the offers will arrive in September 2025, so we should be able to make decisions. Once again, the strengths of both companies are aligned and working together, which is good for us.
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Lydia: Thank you. This is Lydia from Barclays. Two questions, please. The first one, just on CAPEX, because if I think about the change from September, the CAPEX side was probably the biggest change. So, going back to that,
Speaker Change: To what extent did you think we should reduce the equivalent from 18 to 17.5? And how happy are the contractors to do this? Are you working with them differently?
Speaker Change: The second question concerns operational issues. It's unexpected for these things to happen, but are you looking at something more systematic and should you review the processes in place?
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Speaker Change: I will let Vincent explain what he wants to implement regarding the availability of plants.
Speaker Change: It must also be clear that we have old refineries. I am not a big fan of investing in many new refineries, especially in Europe. This is not to say that we don't have systematic time.
Speaker Change: share with you his action plan that he is implementing with his colleagues and teams.
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Speaker Change: .75 out of 17, I know it's a big change. Yes, maybe you were surprised.
Speaker Change #100: because you all thought we were going above. You don't believe us, you should believe us. I have been a business leader in front of you for ten years, I don't think I have missed much from this perspective. So, you should believe us. It's not about planning to go beyond. No, in fact, we did our job. And again, I told you the truth, which is that there was something intentional about these...
Speaker Change: Weak molecules, where we begin to have charged electricity, we want to have...
Speaker Change: to be more frugal in the way we position ourselves at the Capitol, I would say. The program cannot be developed.
Speaker Change: This is one way we are funding all of this. The other part is to be pragmatic. We have a number of people, we cannot overstretch them, because it's a matter of safety, it's a matter of execution. And we have subsidiaries, like Angola, that have a lot to do.
Speaker Change: It's not a big management exercise, it's a matter of maintaining the idea, and it's important because we have 3 years with the euro at 80 dollars.
Speaker Change: If you increase the number of CAPEX, discipline may be more difficult to achieve.
Speaker Change #101: It's an important debate. It is also true, to be clear, that the commitment to what we told you in September, to the price reduction, is taken into account by everyone. And it is also a part of the margins that we want to have.
Speaker Change #102: So you have an impact on us when you make comments.
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We listen to our dear sellers and our investors.
It's good, thank you.
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Speaker Change #102: And the next question, do you call it? The Bird, ah yes, Vincent, sorry.
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Speaker Change #103: So we have a clear plan on availability. Just to make it shorter, first, we have very good refineries as well, and we realized that the sharing of experiences is not completely implemented. To take a very concrete example, the refinery in the United States for Arthur is the only one in the United States.
Speaker Change #103: We want to take the best of the best players from Europe and from Europe, for example, to ensure it is implemented in Port Arthur. We have therefore changed the management, we have people coming from Europe, and we are already seeing the plan delivering the first reasons.
Speaker Change #103: Secondly, in terms of organization, in what I would like to call the bad player,
Speaker Change #103: We see that, very often, in maintenance, for example, people who work on longer-term improvements are cannibalized by short-term needs.
Speaker Change #103: When you have problems, we must ensure that these two teams are clearly separated, and that these particular plans, like for example in Donge, do not always fix problems, rather than working in the long term.
Speaker Change #104: We also realized, in certain plans, that people might focus on these particular refinery equipments, which bring the best margin.
Speaker Change #104: on high-value margin units. And lately, and this is very concrete and pragmatic, I think that digital, today, is ready to bring value. We have solutions and we can improve the valuation, for example, of products in refineries thanks to these tools.
Speaker Change #105: I would say profits that come from the sky. If I couldn't do this job, I would never have thought that I would have another ton of margins.
Speaker Change #106: I think there is also an impact, but that's why, in fact, in the end, it's back to the fundamentals, back to the things we trigger. So, there are no criticisms, it's just a matter of...
Speaker Change #106: Once again, it was a very high result. You lose some of the plans and you have a succession of events.
Speaker Change #106: But it's not a question of sleeping, it's about reacting to it, but it's not a systemic issue. For me, it's a matter of putting things in order and I hope to get results.
I am reasonably optimistic about this issue.
Lucas, here, please.
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Speaker Change #107: Thank you very much, this is Lucas Herman from BNPXN. Two questions, please, Patrick. Liquidity, US share.
Speaker Change #106: How did it go? Where did you go to improve it? Secondly, it's just a discount, I have this horrible feeling, I will wake up one day, you will probably know first of all.
Speaker Change #106: and that the Russia-Ukraine issue has been resolved. It is a reminder of the position in terms of dividends and inheritance flows that one can potentially recover, by regaining access to the income from existing money.
Thank you very much.
Speaker Change #106: Firstly, I will not introduce the debate. It is not a question of double-listing. Thank you. What we want to do is have a single class of shares.
Speaker Change #106: which will be the introductory market, it is Paris. And these partners could be dealt with on both markets.
Speaker Change #106: from 5 to 10 a.m., in New York. So it's a continuous list of the same class of shares. That's why...
via StockValue.
Speaker Change #106: And when the two markets are open at the same time, it's just related to price exchange, actually. That's how it works. It's not two lists, it's one list. It's more of a continuous list. The opening, yes. Access to partnerships in the USA and not to ADRs which have a cost, etc.
Speaker Change #108: Where are we? We are working with Euroclear and DTCC, the two transfer agencies.
Speaker Change #108: There are also banks that work with us. Technical solutions have been found for all the problems. We know if we can vote, if we can pay taxes. All of this is done. We need to move on to the legal part.
Speaker Change #108: We have entered a new phase to translate the legal documents. This means that we are working on it. I do not anticipate any blockage, but all of this must be done. The good news is that we know how to ensure this continuity.
Speaker Change #109: who translate on both markets, who interact, but we need to translate them into contracts. Of course, our partners do not only have our issues to resolve, so there are many things, but our point of view is that...
Speaker Change #109: Our goal is clear, it is to do it in 2025, maybe at the end of 2025, but if we don't do it in 2025, we would be worried, but we cannot do it. It's clear. We will have more visibility in the next 6 months.
Speaker Change #109: Technically, we know and we have found all the solutions to the technical questions we have asked.
and Patrick Pouyanné.
Speaker Change #110: for example, in France, when you buy and sell a share, you must pay 0.3%.
Speaker Change #110: This should be applied to purchases and sales in the United States market. It's a small detail, it's not a small detail. How to implement it? This required developments with different intermediaries, etc. But we have the solution, we know how to ensure it.
Speaker Change #110: It's the kind of things we do, it's not a big delay, but it's the sum of technical qualities.
Speaker Change #110: And, once again, the boat unanimously supports all these movements.
Speaker Change #110: But once again, it is a continued list of prices that are primarily introduced in Paris between the two markets.
And that's all.
Speaker Change #110: In Russia, I don't remember the number anymore. I know that there is about 1 billion euros.
Thank you.
What is that?
There is somewhere in the system.
Speaker Change #110: To be honest, in my mind, they have disappeared. I don't know why, but I see your questions and you are optimistic. But you know, we haven't received dividends from Novatec for more than a year. They are somewhere out there. And there is a funny law in Russia that says if you don't take your dividends after three years, you can lose them.
Speaker Change #110: These are funny things, you know. They could take a year. It's not very friendly for gold investors. But honestly, today...
Speaker Change #110: The point is that today, as you know, the situation, everything is cold from AMAL's point of view.
Speaker Change #110: We will continue to work and execute the Yamaha Works contract. As for the rest, we will see. The purchases, we have the partners. The partners are somewhere, but I am not... For the year 2025, we have not integrated anything into our...
Speaker Change #110: I am even more on point, but my question for myself is when, you know, in Europe, when, to what extent, will there be enough LNG capacity in the United States?
Speaker Change #110: 27, where Europeans could decide to get the LNG grid in Russia. That's no longer the question. Once again, at the moment, the 100 days of President Trump would be, if I manage it easily, I will applaud.
Speaker Change #110: It's not just for total energy, but for everyone, it's more important than for us.
Speaker Change #110: All the figures you have seen, there is no history of Russia, except the flows of the Amal.
Speaker Change #110: The Yamaha, as you know, is not very high. We have a problem when prices are very low in 2024. The performance of the Yamaha, which was not high, was not as good as the previous year.
Speaker Change #110: of what impacted, I'm not saying that, but it's the reality, what was the result of contract 24, we are not as good as 23, just because we are more into the sport. If the price comes back, it could be, you know.
This is where we are.
Speaker Change #111: There is some concern that we will not have the necessary airline capacities by 2030. So I wanted to ask you, because you have obviously converted a number of your units, what do you think needs to happen for that to occur?
Speaker Change #111: which allow the company to economically rise over the next few years.
Speaker Change #112: My second question is specific to quarantine. At the level of working capital, we have seen a systematic delay in the material quantities of money in Q3 2023 and in Q4 2024.
Speaker Change #111: Can we anticipate this in the future? What is driving it? What is happening there?
Speaker Change #113: Jean-Pierre is the expert who works at the Capitol. I'm trying to help her, but...
Speaker Change #114: Thank you, we are programs first. I think on the south, on the first let's come back to.
Speaker Change #114: There are different ways to produce salt. There is the easy way or the easy way, the most expensive way, which is to start from lipids, I would say.
Speaker Change #114: Those who call seeds animal, waste, palm oil, etc.
These are profitable.
We must continue to invest because we have this mandate.
Speaker Change #114: Then there are other projects, which are honestly, for me, more critical, in which we have not invested today, which are Methanol2Jet or Isaf.
Speaker Change #114: All of this is complex and costly. And in fact, they do not meet the clients' demands. Because the Allies complain, but they want the most for themselves. And my opinion is that we can fulfill the mandate from 2030-2035, simply by staying on the...
Speaker Change #114: It is the most expensive technology. I understand why some people shy away from certain projects that seem to be on the high side of capital intensity. That's what I understand. On the other hand, I think that...
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Speaker Change #114: The difficulty is that it is a regulated market. Sometimes, there is water, sometimes, there is pain. You know, in 1924, the HVOs were very low priced.
Speaker Change #114: You see the depression because of the Scandinavian countries that have changed their game rules.
Speaker Change #114: In the year 2024, Germany helps everyone because it decided that all the inventories we had in our biological quotas have disappeared. So all of a sudden, you have a shortage and the price increases. That's the difficulty of this market. You have to navigate it.
Speaker Change #114: You have a good way of doing that and that's the reason why you have cancellations with the coprocessing.
Speaker Change #114: Because the aerospace industry discovered, evolved in fact. Because it was actually just a normative debate.
Speaker Change #114: Can we do coprocessing? When you inject nitrogen oil into a refinery, you produce kerosene. Can you do a mass balance to consider what you have produced?
Speaker Change #114: It's a SAF. It's not a real SAF, but an aggregation SAF. They did it in July, last summer, but it's acceptable.
Speaker Change #114: Why? Because first of all, it's cheaper. But by doing this, of course, they have pushed forward other major projects that are really delivering money, real money, I would say, money like those that will produce.
Speaker Change #114: are more expensive, but it's just because they are afraid they won't have enough.
Speaker Change #114: I think that coprocessing has taken a good space in the market. That's why some of my colleagues have asked me to continue investing in Greenfield projects, because if I can produce these products,
Speaker Change #114: That's the difficulty with these molecules that are highly regulated, they change the way you accept things. That's why you need to invest in CAPEX.
Speaker Change #115: It's clear, you can do it, but on the most effective projects. I continue to be convinced, but for us, it's not agriculture, it's just about transforming all the refineries that become...
Speaker Change #115: and even non-profitable in the European market which is shifting towards biological energy. For me, it's a good thing to do. Once again, the condition to do this, and it's one of the difficulties, is to find a way to integrate the extreme.
Speaker Change #115: with the partnership for more projects, because integration is a means to ensure evolution, and not only to be the transformer of a phytoscope that can go up, and a tool that can go down. It can be completely removed. This is the economic difficulty.
Speaker Change #115: But once again, I'm not really afraid. I think there's a game going on there. The airline companies are shouting, they have a lack of equipment, because they want the prices to go down to cause overcapacity.
Speaker Change #115: It's a community business. So, actually, in our mathematics, when we do the markets, I am more afraid.
Speaker Change #115: to have another ability than an incapacity under-capacity at the age of 20-30 years. For them, the game is to say, oh look, we are lucky. But you know, the conclusion is that, in Europe, we have another difficulty. Be clear, in Europe, I explained it, I discussed it with...
Speaker Change #115: the commissioner in Brussels, it's that today we accept jobs imported from China, from the Chinese, from China, because the companies of the Alliance have the impression of being white. But when you import from China, I am sure they have all the...
They meet all the criteria that we have in Europe.
Speaker Change #115: Investing in Europe, in new units, when you have employees coming from China, on their own, somehow makes a bit of sense.
Speaker Change #116: It is a great difficulty for me with these molecules, there are many regular elements that make the investment decision.
Not easy.
But at the same time, let's move.
Speaker Change #116: It's clear, it's a complex market, but it's a market in which we have good cards to play. If we combine integration, low capex, and seriousness, it will not be a majority for us.
Speaker Change #116: It will be a source of income. I don't expect millions of dollars in free cash.
Speaker Change #116: But if it can help me transform laws like we did at Lamed, we went from less than 100 per year to more than 30 per year, that's good. In the end, it's better to make the investment just because we have jobs, etc. It's good, that's the goal.
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Speaker Change #116: It's good to do it at the end of the year, but I know there are systematic problems with taxes. For example, in Norway, we pay in March, so we have a big deficit. A large amount of taxes has to be paid at the end of the first quarter. For the rest...
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No, there is no...
Speaker Change #116: from the company to outside the company, especially for your hands. But I mentioned to you during my speech that we have benefited from the company's help.
Speaker Change #116: and objectives of exceptional items, mainly tax items. I will give you an example. We need to receive the ticket from the German authority in relation to the income tax on the money we generated when we closed the debate in Germany at the end of 2023.
Speaker Change #116: They are supposed to receive the ball during the quarantine race 4. We did not receive the ball. There is no permanent period. We received the ball, but we are going to pay.
Speaker Change #116: It's clear that the goal is to try to normalize these flows, to be clear. I'm on your page, because I prefer to see it as a normalization, but I think there are some lessons that have been brought by my colleagues.
Speaker Change #116: But you can consider that you can believe, at the end of each year, that you will have a more or less stable situation.
Speaker Change #116: In your models, in your mathematics, consider that we can do it.
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Speaker Change #117: We have done it for several years. We know how to make the recipe and we can repeat it.
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Speaker Change #118: Thank you Renaud, Doug Leggett from Wolf Research. Patrick, you mentioned earlier about oil at 70-80 dollars. It's not a good time to buy things, but it might be a good time to sell things.
Speaker Change #118: in your goal of 3% growth by the end of 2030.
Speaker Change #119: What did you assume? What are the criteria? And I'm thinking of a few examples. By expanding your margin, you still have the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom has a windfall tax.
Speaker Change #119: You have Libya which is growing and has a tax of 93%. What do you think about things that offset your marginal expansion? What makes you cry?
Speaker Change #119: My follow-up is on Suriname. You talked about exploration in Namibia. You haven't talked about the exploration plans in Suriname. I wonder if you can elaborate. That's true. That's a good question.
Speaker Change #120: We continue to diversify our purchases. We are VIN 25 and we have planned to sell more than one million euros.
Speaker Change #120: It's a project in Niger, on the coast. It's on its way to being closed, so it will be closed. This represents 800-900 million dollars in repayment. So it's a big budget.
In the United Kingdom, we have worked on this in different ways.
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Speaker Change #121: I tried to find a way to combine tax losses with our tax budget. We did not succeed. We had some issues with certain partners. But we continue to work on this subject and I am very open, to be clear. It's not a question of bars.
Speaker Change #120: If we have the opportunity to save a billion dollars in taxes, we will do it.
is more important.
Speaker Change #120: Libya? No, I do not agree with Libya. Libya depends on optimism. In Libya, I think it's a long-term position. There is a lot of oil to develop. Not with the presenters, but they have negotiations today. We are working on that and I think we can improve.
The price of taxation in Libya is changing.
Speaker Change #120: Because it is a country where it is very easy to develop.
Speaker Change #120: Because there is no oil, it is insufficient, a huge amount of oil. I will not forgive this position, because today's contracts are very high, but they need to be improved.
Speaker Change #120: If Libya wants one day to develop its reserves, that's the debate we have with them today, with the authorities. So it's a matter of continuing. As for the UK, I see little future, to be honest. And by the way, it's a country where, sorry I'm in London, but we're not exploring in the UK. Because what happens to our friends?
Speaker Change #120: They have explored, made discoveries, and today they have a debate that has the right to develop, it's fair to me.
Speaker Change #120: It's not possible to put some exploration money in a country where I'm not sure to get the development license. I have to go to court.
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Speaker Change #120: On the island of Suriname, we have exploration, but we are completely focused on the island of Suriname. I think we have planned to build a building in block 64, which is another block. There are two things. It's the way we have discussed with the authorities about what is called the development area.
Speaker Change #120: In fact, the development area covers all our discoveries, all the trends, and it is within the development area.
Speaker Change #120: If we want to explore, assess, we will offset a cost on production. We have therefore secured, and I am sure that we must return to some of the speeches we made to assess, reconnect, etc. There is therefore some potential.
Speaker Change #120: There is another block that we are interested in exploring and studying this year. We have not mentioned it, but we have also taken, elsewhere, this is not public, but two blocks, two licenses in Nigeria, the Niger Delta, recently.
Speaker Change #120: It is a very dangerous leak. There was no exploration for ten years. We managed to open the box and it is one of the most political leaks.
Speaker Change #120: Suriname, Block 64 is not the same trend, it's more frontier exploration. But we need to return to what we have already discovered and learned.
Matt, Loftinck.
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Subtitles created by the Amara.org community
Speaker Change #122: on financial objectives and on cash flow, understanding the comments you made about the gas market, for example, relative to 24. And then, 35 gigawatts of...
Speaker Change #122: Their capacity for completeness and power for the next year makes me think that it is...
Speaker Change #122: It was an incredibly impressive delivery on a goal that we had set up.
Speaker Change #123: Have they changed the outlook on the pace and the best sources of growth, regarding inflation and the supply chain challenges that the industry continues to face in certain segments of renewable generation? Thank you.
Ok.
In fact, the improvement that you have...
Ranging from 4.9 million dollars to the goal of 6.
and the integrity of the ENGIE Cash Flow.
Speaker Change #123: I would say that half will come from absolute prices, which are higher, but I would say there is an improvement on commercial gas of 500 million dollars.
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Speaker Change #123: They have returned to levels that were more in line. I say this under the eyes of Stéphane, who is approving.
It's Vajayali, once again.
Speaker Change #123: This is an improvement that we are expecting. The part will come from the volumes that are developing. We have a bit more volume, but also part of the impact on volatility. Once again, what we are observing in the market at the beginning of the year 2025 gives us the stress that it should be achievable.
Speaker Change #124: and the other teams. Maybe we'll do more, we'll encourage. On the 30GW, ok, we have a large pipeline of 70GW, it's the USA, Brazil, France, Iraq, South Africa, North Africa, South Africa,
Speaker Change #125: Europe is the key market where we think we can expand.
Speaker Change #125: My question for me, what is more important, is, once again, a large company, which will reach 50 TWh, 100 TWh by 2050, more than 100. I think it is very important that we have a large company, and that we are on the way, because we are investing 4 million per year to develop it. But once again, renewal is a big part of that.
Speaker Change #125: We have this magic figure of 100 gigawatts. We have the pipeline. Do we want to develop all of this? That will of course depend on the value of everything that comes. There are permanent opportunities.
Speaker Change #125: In fact, we can find a partner. Moreover, honestly, the large capacity for me, if I invested this large capacity in Ireland, I would have a huge number, but not many results, I can tell you. Because it only operates 11% of the time.
Speaker Change #125: The soils in Ile-de-la-Plaine produce volumes, it's not very expensive, but the result is not there. Be careful with the idea of volume, especially in the different markets.
Speaker Change #125: I am convinced that there will be continuous progress with the United States, that's for sure.
Speaker Change #125: and some major countries in Europe like Germany and others are clear, where we have a good chance to continue moving forward.
Speaker Change #126: I am optimistic that we will have a segment that will produce more than 100 TWh in 2030, a renewable capacity, a large capacity.
Speaker Change #127: We also have partners, we are developing it. The Indian represents 15-20 GW, but not all are equal.
Speaker Change #127: We will continue to invest in integrated power. We have these 4 million dollars per year as a metric that we will maintain. The way we have separated... I think that batteries, for example, will be more important in our mix than those we had when we said we needed more batteries. It's quite clear to us.
Speaker Change #127: But the battery is also a way to improve profitability and revenues on renewable energies and gas plants. This is what drives us and we adapt to these conditions.
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Subtitles created by the Amara.org community
Speaker Change #128: Hello, thank you for taking my question. First, I would like to ask a quick question about Yemal. In recent months, the United States and the EU have sanctioned an energy seller from Yemal. Does this affect your ability to withdraw cargos from Yemal?
Speaker Change #129: Secondly, on American offshore wind, I believe you mentioned it in November,
Speaker Change #129: that you are pausing your American offshore project called Attentive Energy. You said it was a four-year pause. I wonder if this affects your low-carbon CAPEX character. I also wonder about your thoughts on participating in projects exposed to political winds that can change every four years. Thank you. OK, that's fine, but the concession is for 50 years.
Speaker Change #130: It's clear. This means that, yes, we are not spending. Moreover, we have a development team of 50 or 60 people in New York. It will be done in five days.
Speaker Change #131: It's very active, but I don't think it will ever happen. It's a matter of patience.
Speaker Change #132: Once again, a year of development in waterways is about 30 million dollars per year, which is not a fundamental change. At the same time, we have taken more licenses in Germany, and I did not expect this type of policy change. I think it will even be a change...
Speaker Change #132: There will be a change of chancellor, but no change in the government majority. I do not see a change in the strategy of this policy.
Speaker Change #133: Yamal, I'm not sure, I don't remember, Aurélien is the expert, or Nicolas.
Speaker Change #133: For me, I haven't seen any impact on AMAL or on the sanctions. I saw an impact on article 2, but we do not invest in article 2 and we are not there. On AMAL, no, I don't see any.
Speaker Change #134: I don't know which ship you are thinking of, but we have no impact on Yamal.
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Well, let's say...
Speaker Change #134: Aurélien, do you want to take... Maybe you can answer, but I don't have that in mind. I can tell you that we monitor the Russian sanctions every two weeks. So we have a permanent session. Yes, I wanted to say that for the last three years, we have been monitoring... Every two weeks, we spend 30 minutes on this subject. There are no sanctions? There are sanctions that affect Arctic energy and the Arctic energy value chain, the Arctic energy supply chain... And yes, that's correct. And in fact, we have declared force majeure and taken the consequences of that. But not on the AMR, not at all, in fact.
and the boats are not sanctions for the WHO.
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Do you have another question perhaps?
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Speaker Change #134: Hello, this is Anish Kapadia from the Policy Advisors association. I have a question regarding your net debt and interest costs.
Speaker Change #134: When we look at the announced net debt against other products like hybrids, leisure, the receivables bill, the net debt is then much higher, potentially higher by 30 million dollars.
Speaker Change #135: And from the perspective of interests and financial costs, can you give us an idea of...
Speaker Change #135: Regarding the increase in financial costs for the year 2025 in terms of the combination of traditional debt, hybrids, and receivables factoring, as far as you are concerned, you have restructured your debt to a higher level. Thank you.
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Are you going to see everything?
Speaker Change #135: We benefited from a very local debt, as most of the debts were fixed.
Speaker Change #135: The interest rate has increased, I will give you a figure, it is approximately below 4% of the cost of the debt that we have at the moment. And the hybrid, it's something completely different. We have decided to take liability actions regarding the hybrid.
Speaker Change #135: But at the present time, we consider this as a long-term element in our balance plan. That is why we have decided to manage the habitat below and to renew the tranche that is supposed to mature in February.
Speaker Change #135: That's what we did during the first quarantine. But honestly, most of the laws are set.
Speaker Change #135: We have therefore not seen a strong increase this year compared to the previous year. No, there has been no increase in our plan for the 2500 meters depth.
Speaker Change #135: I do not see an increase in debt, apart from what we have said about the potential impact of the 3 billion that we have mentioned.
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Speaker Change #136: OK, we may need to go to the phone to Paul Chang. Paul, go ahead, please.
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Hello, can you hear me?
Yes, the Order is clear.
Stéphane Michel: Thank you. Patrick, I believe you haven't talked about the adoption of AI.
Speaker Change #137: Do you believe that the adoption of AI will be an important factor for you in terms of driving the cause and improving efficiency over the next two or three years? And where do you see the greatest opportunity, if that's the case? And how much investment will it be? The second question is... Sorry, one moment.
Goodbye.
I think it's ideological that they are less friendly.
Speaker Change #137: abroad and also abroad from Mexico, supposedly, it goes...
Speaker Change #138: and improve accessibility. Has this changed the way you might want to allocate your capital, particularly for the government of Mexico, and also for the American renewable energy sector? Thank you.
Thank you for watching this video!
OK, we are live.
Speaker Change #138: Vincent gave some hints, I don't know if Namita is there, she wants to have some compliment on it. What I can tell you is that we are, it's important.
We are going to establish it in the Lamita organization, which is called One Tech.
Speaker Change #138: We will have a specialized line that will report to EURS on these digital and artificial tools. We strongly believe that this is a way not only to be more efficient,
Speaker Change #139: Will it be available in the next 2-3 years? I'm not quite sure.
Speaker Change #139: We are going to develop what we call a digital plan program, in order to look more systematically. We are considering making strong investments.
Speaker Change #139: companies, in order to be able to connect all the real-time data.
Speaker Change #139: in this segment, to make these connections across the company and to invest, including in terms of developing these...
I would say AI models, it's clear.
Speaker Change #140: Does he deliver quickly? I hope so, but it's clearly above the agenda.
Speaker Change #141: And in the organization One Tech, we will report directly to Namita as an individual line. Today, it is in different segments, different divisions, that we want to group together to have a clear leader and to drive this movement towards AI and digital.
Speaker Change #142: Regarding the United States, the Gulf of Mexico has always been part of our agenda. You mentioned it this year, there are two projects.
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Balimaud and
Speaker Change #142: still, where we are taxpayers, but it's true that we decided to abandon a project five years ago, because we couldn't see a way to develop it profitably, and we are not operators, we have become non-operators, but we can be, I am completely...
Speaker Change #142: I think there is still good potential for exploration in the United States, and we are having discussions with potential partners to invest in the exploration of the Gulf of Mexico.
Speaker Change #142: It's something we are ready for, but more as operators and non-operators, because spending a lot of money to establish a position is not really the best way to optimize our costs.
Speaker Change #142: It looks like there is a lot of... Ok, I know, and I listen like you.
Speaker Change #143: Solar, for example, has always been supported in terms of fiscal support. Not at 30 or 40%, but at 20 or 24%, which, honestly, for me, is an unacceptable level. And I think the debate in Congress...
Speaker Change #144: and the CNAID, between the congresses and the administration, will be interested because, once again, in many of the states, which are also Republican states,
Speaker Change #144: There are interests to develop with renewals. I remind you that urban infrastructure in the United States is not so strong. There is a way to complement it.
Speaker Change #145: the way we envision the future in the United States, not only in terms of renewable energy, but also in terms of greenhouse gases, which, of course, are encouraged, like batteries.
Speaker Change #145: I remind you that we made the investment in Clearway before the IRA. When the IRA arrived, there was a kind of additional investment. And the investment we made in Clearway...
Speaker Change #145: is in line with our expectations, so we are happy, it's even better thanks to the IRA. If we return to previous terms, it's not a problem.
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Speaker Change #145: This has not fundamentally changed the way we see the development of this power. But again, the world is not solely renewable. The integrated power and the latest events we have done.
Speaker Change #145: in these gas plants are really quite permissive. So, there are ways. The demand for electricity, fundamentally, is going to grow. So, the question is, if you meet this demand for electricity in the coming years,
Speaker Change #146: and all these information centers. They want to have them tomorrow. It will take a little more time. It is a good company. When you have a strong demand, it is worthwhile to continue finding ways to invest in this area. It is fundamental.
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Thank you.
Henri and then we have Bertrand, the phone.
Henri: Hello Patrick, thank you for the announcement. I just have a question regarding the organic direction of the CAPEX and the shift from the year 2018-2017. If we go back to the October presentation, you are also expecting 18 billion euros next year, in 2026. I am wondering how structured the changes you have implemented for this year are, and if you can foresee a similar organic CAPEX in 2026. Have the lower expenditures on some of these small projects impacted the evolution of the CAPEX?
and Pierre Lemaire. Thank you. Thank you.
Yabahiya
Henri: That's a good question. Again, you can take 17-18 if you want, or 26.
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It's the truth.
Henri: I am not sure that it has fundamentally changed the attractiveness of the share of total energy.
It's all about simplicity.
Speaker Change #148: Okay, so can we take Bertrand's question online? Yes, of course. Bertrand, go ahead.
Bertrand: Yes, hello. Two questions left on the LNG side. The first one, on your LNG strategy, the idea, as you highlighted it in October, is to convert Henry Hub into Brent when it comes to your LNG off-takes.
Speaker Change #150: At 3 dollars, Henry Hub and Brent, 80 dollars per barrel, it works perfectly, but it works less so at 4 dollars MBTU, Henry Hub and Brent, 70, and it does not work at all at 60.
Speaker Change #150: My concern is not obviously for 2025, given current LNG dynamics and high spot LNG prices.
Speaker Change #151: How do you intend to mitigate an outcome where you will have...
Speaker Change #151: higher and higher than you had anticipated.
Speaker Change #151: And the second question is more very short term on the LNG. Last year at $7, $8 per MBTU, we saw a surge in India LNG spot demand, Chinese LNG spot demand.
Speaker Change #152: Now that we are at 14-15 dollars per MBTU, do you see the reverse impact and the destruction of LNG demand in Asia? Thank you.
Thank you for watching this video!
Speaker Change #152: Once again, we have a vision of this market from 2027-2030. The reality of this energy market is that there will be an increase in capacity of 100 million tonnes, thus 30%.
Speaker Change #153: It's a reality, and maybe it can lead to the containment of water, but it will also lead to lower energy prices. The best protection would be to change brands, as I would be surprised to see oil settle at 50-60 dollars for long at the end of this decade.
Speaker Change #154: You know, at 50 dollars per barrel, you don't have many heat producers investing.
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Speaker Change #154: They are already disciplined at the age of 70 or at the age of 80, and the decline is 20% per year. I think the fundamental of all these markets is that they are stronger than what can happen on LNG1. If the environment is much higher, the response we need to provide in terms of total energy is to produce more in the United States.
Speaker Change #155: It is the best protection for me. That is why we made these two partnerships, and we continue to respond to our friends. It is a fundamental part for me. We must bridge this gap.
Speaker Change #156: in our portfolio, to have more exposure to domestic energy, to gas energy, because we have to face a situation where you have exactly what I described.
Speaker Change #156: It's clear. I agree on this point and we want, by continuing to do what we have done in 2025, to continue to store different opportunities to achieve our goals.
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Demand restriction at higher prices in China and India.
Speaker Change #157: The country that surprised me in 2024 is India. In fact, India has increased its demand. I saw the figure this morning, 28 million tons in 2023.
Speaker Change #157: The price wasn't that low, in fact, they buy, you know, 5 years ago, I think, the same answer, they buy 5-6 dollars, today they buy 10 dollars, more or less, during the year.
Speaker Change #157: and an increase in demand. So India is investing in gas infrastructure. What will be the reaction of 2015-2016? But again, 2015-2016, maybe for a year.
Stéphane Michel: Demand destruction, no. Cautiousness, yes. And I believe it will be a good incentive for these buyers to go again to Brent. Which I think is they are more confident and less volatile in fact. Do you want to add something, Stéphane, on this one?
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Stéphane Michel: As you said Patrick, India was very strong last year, and from what I saw in January, we haven't seen a short decline in India's consumption. So we have to wait a few months to see if at 16, it starts or not, but that's not the case.
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Speaker Change #158: They will be responsive with the human price in 2025. Is it structural? The answer is no.
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No last question?
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OK. Do you have a question?
Speaker Change #159: I stopped you because Bertrand had come. Lucas, if you want to ask your last question, you will be the last to start. I am going to stand up.
Speaker Change #159: It was just a follow-up question. It was simply, why do you make factors?
Out of interest. Why do you use factory?
Speaker Change #159: What is logic in terms of debt factor?
with their particular logic.
This is not a decision made at the company level.
Business by business, we are a centralized organization.
We have just checked the main boat.
If it's not cheap, we don't say, we say no.
Cost control.
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Okay, maybe one last word, Patrick?
Speaker Change #161: Thank you to all your supporters. Renaud likes to go further and further in London. I don't know if there is a message about the price of silver. He should go further and further. I don't know if there is another one to visit next year.
Speaker Change #162: Personally, last year was a bit better for me, because I had a view on...
Speaker Change #162: I believe there are two on the industry, but maybe there is a third one. Once again, thank you for being here. I honestly think our case is quite...
Speaker Change #162: It's simple, and the year 2024 has strengthened all the fundamentals. I don't think you would have had many surprises or negatives in 2025 for our company. Thank you.
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