Q4 2024 Smurfit WestRock PLC Earnings Call

February 12, 2025

Operator: Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Smurfit Westrock 2024 full year results webcast and conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Ciaran Potts, Smurfit Westrock Group Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Good day and thank you for standing by.

Welcome to the Smurfit Westrock 2024 Full Year Results Webcast and Conference Call.

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question,

You will need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised.

Ciarán Potts: Thanks, Heidi. Just as a reminder, statements in today's earnings release and presentation, and the comments made by management during this call, may be considered forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. Those risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors identified in the earnings release and in our SEC filings. The company undertakes no obligation to revise any forward-looking statements. Today's remarks also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release and in the appendix to the presentation, which are available at investors.smurfitwestrock.com.

Ciarán Potts: Before handing over to Tony, given we have a full day of investor engagement, I'd ask you to limit your questions to two, and should you require any clarifications on what we are discussing today, myself and Frank will do our best to make ourselves available after the call. I'll now hand you over to Tony Smurfit, CEO of Smurfit Westrock.

Tony Smurfit: Thank you, Ciaran, and good morning and good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for taking the time to join us today. As you will have seen from this morning's release, we have reported a strong fourth quarter performance with an adjusted EBITDA of $1.166 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.5%. Importantly, for the full year 2024, we delivered a combined adjusted EBITDA outcome of $4.706 billion, fully consistent with our stated guidance back in October. On 5 July 2024, Smurfit Kappa combined with Westrock to create the new Smurfit Westrock company. The scale and dimension of this company is quite remarkable.

Thank you Karen and good morning, and good afternoon, everyone and thank you for taking the time to join us today.

As you will have seen from this morning's release, we reported a strong fourth quarter performance with an adjusted EBITDA of 1.166 billion U S dollars and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 15, 5%.

Importantly for the full year of 2024, we delivered a combined adjusted EBITDA of $4 seven 6 billion U S dollars fully consistent with our stated guidance back in October.

On July 5th last year, Smurfit Kappa combined with west dropped to create the new Smurfit West Rock company.

Kalen dimension of this company, it's quite remarkable.

Tony Smurfit: As you can see from this map, we have many operating facilities in many regions across the world, with principal operations in North America, with approximately 60% of our business, EMEA and APAC with 33% of our business, with the balance being in Latin America, and that's based on revenue. Our combination created the go-to sustainable packaging partner of choice, with an unrivaled product portfolio, expertise, and scale. To put that into numbers, the number of converting facilities, whether they be in corrugated, consumer, bag and box, sack conversion, or specialty packaging, is over 500 units, with 62 mills, again, in different areas of sustainable packaging, corrugated papers, consumer papers, and some specialty papers.

As you can see from this map we have many operating facilities in many regions across the world with principal operations in North America with approximately 60% of our business.

In APAC with 33% of our business with the balance being in Latin America, and that's based on revenue.

Our combination created the goto sustainable packaging partner of choice with an unrivaled product portfolio expertise and scale.

To put that into numbers the number of converting facilities, whether they be in corrugated consumer bag in box that conversion our specialty packaging is over 500 units.

With 62 mills again in different areas of sustainable packaging corrugated papers consumer papers and some specialty papers.

Tony Smurfit: To support our paper mills, we've over 14 million tons of waste paper, which we process, as well as having our own forestry of some 300,000 acres, principally in Brazil and Colombia. With over 100,000 people worldwide, operating in 40 countries, generating net sales of over $31 billion last year, it's important to remember that in creating this company, we didn't want it to be just big, but we wanted it to be the best. And you can only be the best in any industry if you have the right management team. Every business will, of course, say that people are their greatest assets, to the point that one can be jaded by the statement.

To support our paper Mills, we have over 14 million tons of waste paper, which we process as well as having our own forestry of some 300000 acres, principally in Brazil and Colombia.

With over 100000 people worldwide operating in 40 countries generating net sales of over 31 billion last year, it's important to remember that in creating this company. We didn't want it to be just big but we wanted it to be the best.

And you can only be the best in any of the industry. If you have the right management team.

Every business.

This will of course say that people are the greatest assets to the point that one can be jaded by the statements.

Tony Smurfit: But I will say that the Smurfit Westrock leadership team, right through all levels, is a team that is stable, experienced, and has navigated many different challenges over the years, while at the same time consistently delivering against all performance metrics. This team and the broader team grew the EBITDA margin of legacy Smurfit Kappa from 13.8% to 18.5%, ROCE from 12 to 17.1%, reduced the leverage multiple from 2.8x to 1.4x, and increased the dividend 10 times. In parallel, we've invested capital to continually improve the asset base and to support customer growth. I'm proud to say we have built an irreplaceable and high quality asset base and footprint that is globally unique.

But I will say that the smurfit worth rock leadership team right through all levels is a team that is stable experience and has navigated many different challenges over the years, while at the same time considered by the <unk>.

Same time consistently delivering against all performance metrics.

This team and the broader team grew the EBITDA margin of legacy Smurfit Kappa from 13, 8% to 18, 5% rosy from 12 to 17, 1% reduce the leverage from multiple from two eight times to one four times and increase the dividend 10 times.

In parallel we've invested capital to continually improve the asset base and to support customer growth.

I am proud to say, we have built an irreplaceable and high quality asset base and footprint that is globally unique.

Tony Smurfit: In short, most of this team were responsible for the transformation of the former Kappa group and successfully delivered for its stakeholders. We have done this by very simply sticking to our knitting. We apply an owner-operator model and a performance-led culture with decentralized operations, where every manager has P&L responsibility for their own operating unit. This, of course, means a sharp commercial focus, whereby the company supports management to improve efficiency, operating costs, and to deliver for our customers. And of course, this can only be done if we reward and continually train our people at all levels of the organization to make them feel unique and part of a unique culture. This is what essentially has led to the success of Smurfit Kappa.

In short most of this team we're responsible for the transformation of the former Kappa group.

And successfully delivered for its stakeholders.

We've done this by very simply sticking to our knitting.

We apply an owner operator model and the performance led culture with decentralized operations, where every manager has P&L responsibility for their own operating unit.

This of course means a sharp commercial focus whereby the company supports management to improve efficiency operating cost and to deliver for our customers.

And of course this can only be done if we reward and continually train our people at all levels of the organization to make them feel unique and part of a unique culture.

This is what essentially has led to the success of Smurfit Kappa.

So in essence, our team and many of our new colleagues from legacy West Rock have joined together. So that we can have a successful bigger and brighter future together as smurfit West rock.

Tony Smurfit: So in essence, our team and many of our new colleagues from Legacy Westrock have joined together so that we can have a successful, bigger, and brighter future together as Smurfit Westrock. A lot has already been done. Firstly, we delivered to plan at $4.7 billion of adjusted EBITDA. We did what we said we were going to do. Secondly, we developed a synergy program, which we are more than confident we're going to meet, if not exceed, the $400 million, and this will be completed by the end of the current year, with the benefits realized this year and next. Thirdly, as we've delved into the business, we've seen many more opportunities than initially thought, at least in excess of $400 million, be it an additional $400 million.

A lot has already been done.

Firstly, we delivered to plan at $4 7 billion of adjusted EBITDA. We did what we said we were going to do.

Secondly, we did develop the synergy program, which we're more than confident we're going to meet if not exceed the $400 million and this will be completed by the end of the current year with the benefits realized this year and next.

Thirdly, we have delta as we delve into the business, we've seen many more opportunities than initially thought at least in excess of $400 million.

An additional $400 million.

Tony Smurfit: We believe that by unleashing the power of our people, there are significant operating improvements through cost takeout, commercial approach, and quick-win CapExes to release greater profitability. As you know, I and my senior colleagues have now visited a significant majority of the facilities, and while there will always be work to be done in our operations across the world, in the current year, we have revised our estimated capital spend to somewhere between $2.2 and $2.4 billion, which reflects the strong positioning of the assets. But as I've said before, assets without people are nothing. Bad assets can make you money if you have good people, and the contrary is also true.

We believe that by unleashing the power of our people there are significant operating improvements through cost takeout commercial approach a quick win capex is to release greater profitability.

As you know IMI senior colleagues have now visited a significant majority of the facilities and while there will always be work to be done in our operations across the world in the current year, we have revised our estimated capital spend to somewhere between two two and $2 4 billion.

Which reflects the strong positioning of the assets.

But as I've said before without assets without.

As I said before assets without people are nothing bad assets can make your money. If you have good people and the country is also true.

I've been so happy and my visits both in Atlanta, and the operations around the world to see the enthusiasm and buying of people to contribute to the success of the new Smurfit West rock.

Tony Smurfit: I've been so happy in my visits, both in Atlanta and the operations around the world, to see the enthusiasm and buy-in of people to contribute to the success of the new Smurfit Westrock. In the seven months, I believe there's been a tremendous foundation and platform for growth for the future. Of course, along the way, with our model of decentralization and making accountability lie at the closest area it can to customers, it has been necessary to streamline the business, and in this process, so far, North America, Mexico, and the rest of the world, over 1,000 people have or will be leaving the company. That said, we've also initiated a major program to train and develop our talent as we invest behind our people. Like you in the investment community, we believe in investing in good management.

And the seven months I believe theres been a tremendous foundation and platform for growth for the future.

Of course, along the way with our model of decentralization that making accountability lie at the closest area can to customers. It has been necessary to streamline the business and in this process. So far North America, Mexico, and the rest of the world over 1000 people have I will be leaving the company.

That said, we've also initiated a major program to train and develop our talent as we invest behind our people.

Thank you and the investment community, we believe in investing in good management.

In addition to this over the years, we're continuously optimizing our production.

Tony Smurfit: In addition to this, over the years, we're continuously optimizing our production. Difficult decisions have been made to streamline assets, and you will see from this slide that both Smurfit and Westrock continue to optimize production in both converting and in mills over the recent period. While these are always difficult decisions, they make for a much healthier and stronger company in the long term. While, of course, closing is always difficult, investing for growth is something we've been continually doing also. Across our world, whether it's in North America, EMEA, or APAC or Latin America, converting, mills, or specialties, where we see opportunities for growth, we will invest behind them.

Difficult decisions have been made to streamline assets and you will see from this slide that both smartphone and west drop continue to optimize production in both converting and in mills over the recent period.

While these are always difficult decisions they make for a much healthier and stronger company in the long term.

While of course clothing is always difficult investing for growth is something we've been continually doing also.

Across our world, whether it's in North America, EMEA and APAC are Latin America, converting mills, our specialties, where we see opportunities for growth, we will invest behind them.

The examples on this page represent over $750 million of investment in just a few plants phased over a number of years highlighting the commitment we have to ensure this company continues to get stronger in order to serve our customers in an efficient and productive way.

Tony Smurfit: The examples on this page represent over $750 million of investment in just a few plants, phased over a number of years, highlighting the commitment we have to ensuring this company continues to get stronger in order to serve our customers in an efficient and productive way. These examples are purely for illustrative purposes, because across all of our facilities worldwide, we're investing for growth or cost reduction to ensure our future success, assuming, of course, these projects meet our expected rate of returns. While we're at the beginning of our journey, it seems hard to believe it's only been just a little over 7 months since we completed our combination 5 July. What we clearly see is that we will be able to capitalize on our excellent market positions and asset quality to ensure our customers receive their products in the most efficient and reliable way.

These examples are purely for illustrative purposes, because across all of our facilities worldwide, we're investing for growth or cost reduction to ensure our future success assuming of course these projects meet our expected rate of returns.

While we are at the beginning of our journey. It seems hard to believe it's only been just a little over seven months since we completed our combination July 5th.

What we clearly see is that we will be able to capitalize on our excellent market positions and asset quality to ensure our customers receive the products in the most efficient and reliable way.

We see the opportunity to continue to empower and motivate our people who are and want to be part of our winning team.

Tony Smurfit: We see the opportunity to continue to empower and motivate our people, who are and want to be part of our winning team. We believe that we are sharpening our commercial focus across the organization to ensure our office, efforts, and investments have attractive returns. We're committed, with our vast data bank of innovative solutions in all areas of our business, to ensure that we give our customers the right innovations and at the right price. There'll be no change to our operating financial model, which is a proven success. We are aligned as senior management, as shareholders in the company, and we'll continue to think of capital as a scarce resource, which must pay off, so that any capital allocation decisions that we make are in the best interest of all stakeholders.

We believe that we are sharpening our commercial focus across the organization to ensure our office efforts and investments have attractive returns.

We're committed with our vast out of bank of innovative solutions in all areas of our business to ensure that we give our customers the right innovation and at the right price.

And there'll be no change to our operating financial model, which is a proven success.

We are aligned senior management as shareholders in the company and we'll continue to think of capital as a scarce resource which must pay off so that any capital allocation decisions that we make are in the best interest of all stakeholders.

It is a philosophy that has been around this company from the 19th <unk> all the way through to today.

Tony Smurfit: It is a philosophy that has been around this company from the 1930s all the way through to today. I'll now pass you to Ken, who will take you through the financials.

I'll now pass you to Ken who will take you through the financials.

Ken: Thank you Tony Good morning, and good afternoon, everyone and thank you again for joining us.

Ken Bowles: Thank you, Tony. Good morning and good afternoon, everyone, and thank you again for joining us. As you can see from the highlight slide here on slide 14, the business delivered a strong Q4 performance, with net sales of over $7.5 billion, adjusted EBITDA in line with our guidance of $1.166 billion, an EBITDA margin of 15.5%, and adjusted free cash flow of almost $260 million. We are starting 2025 and our transformation journey from a position of significant strength, thanks to the hard work of the teams globally and their dedication to the customers, and to creating the most innovative and sustainable paper-based packaging company in the world.

Speaker Change: As you can see from the highlights slide here on slide 14, the business delivered a strong fourth quarter performance with net sales of over $7 $5 billion adjusted EBITDA in line with our guidance of $1 166 billion.

Speaker Change: And EBITDA margin of 15, 5% and adjusted free cash flow of almost $260 million.

Speaker Change: We are starting 2025, and our transformation journey from a position of significant strength.

Speaker Change: Thanks to the hard work of the teams globally and a dedication to the customers and to creating the most innovative and sustainable paper based packaging company in the world.

Speaker Change: Turning now to the reported performance of our three segments in the quarter and starting with North America, where our operations delivered sales of $4 $6 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $710 million.

Ken Bowles: Turning now to the reported performance of our three segments in the quarter, and starting with North America, where our operations delivered sales of $4.6 billion with Adjusted EBITDA of $710 million, and a very solid Adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.4%. Looking at the historical performance of the segment on a combined non-GAAP basis, as per the 8-K filed on 24 September 2024, we saw significant margin improvement year-over-year, primarily due to higher selling prices, with cost headwinds on items such as fiber sourcing and labor, being more than offset by lower energy and distribution costs, and by reduced economic downtime. Corrugated box pricing was higher compared to the prior year, while box volumes are broadly stable on both an absolute, and same-day basis.

Speaker Change: And a very solid adjusted EBITDA margin of 15, 4%.

Speaker Change: Looking at the historical performance of the segment on a combined non-GAAP basis as part of the 8-K filed on 24 at September last we saw significant margin improvement year on year, primarily due to higher selling prices with cost headwinds and items, such as fiber sourcing and labor being more than offset by lower energy and distribution costs and by reduced economic downtime.

Speaker Change: Corrugated box pricing was higher compared to the prior year, while box volumes are broadly stable on both an absolute and same day basis.

Our third party pay per se sales saw mid single digit growth in the quarter and consumer packaging also performed well with volume growth of over 2% when compared to the prior year.

Ken Bowles: Our third-party paper sales saw mid-single-digit growth in the quarter, and consumer packaging also performed well, with volume growth of over 2% when compared to the prior year. As Tony mentioned, we have taken significant actions to streamline the central functions of the segment and to continue to optimize and invest in the asset base. Crucially, our long-standing philosophy of delivering value over volumes began on day one and has been embraced right across the legacy operations. Knowledge transfer and the rollout of our unique innovation applications has commenced, and we are changing the business model to drive proper responsibility at the mill and the box plants, while retaining strong central capital controls, where we see significant opportunities to replicate a performance-led and owner-operator culture to deliver for our customers and to drive profitable growth.

Speaker Change: As Tony mentioned, we have taken significant actions to streamline the central functions of the segment and to continue to optimize and invest in the asset base.

Tony: Crucially, our longstanding philosophy of delivering value over volumes began on day, one and has been embraced right across the legacy operations.

Tony: Now is transfer and the rollout of our unique innovation applications has commenced and we are changing the business model to drive profit responsibility at the mills and box plants, while retaining strong central capital controls.

Tony: Where we see significant opportunities to replicate a performance that an owner operator owner, operator culture to deliver for our customers and to drive profitable growth.

Looking now at our EMEA and APAC Division, where the segment delivered sales of $2 $5 billion with.

Ken Bowles: Looking now at our Americas division, where the segment delivered sales of $2.5 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $371 million, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.7%. Set against the backdrop of what was a challenging year for the wider sector, which we now believe is behind us. In the region, our operations continue to demonstrate exceptional resilience as sales remain stable, with adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin only modestly lower compared to the prior year, mostly due to higher recovered fiber and, to a lesser degree, higher labor costs, which were only partially offset by lower energy, and distribution costs, and higher box volumes. Corrugated box prices were broadly unchanged, while box volumes were 1% higher on an absolute and flat on a same-day basis.

Tony: With adjusted EBITDA of $371 million.

Tony: And an adjusted EBITDA margin of $14 $7 million, 4% to 47%.

Tony: Set against the backdrop of what was a challenging year for the wider sector, which we now believe is behind us in the region of our in the region. Our operations continued to demonstrate exceptional resilience our sales remain stable with adjusted EBITDA and our adjusted EBITDA margin or even modestly lower compared to the prior year.

Mostly due to higher workover fiber and to a lesser degree higher labor costs, which were only partially offset by lower energy and distribution costs and higher box volumes.

Tony: Targeted box prices were broadly unchanged white box volumes are 1% higher on an absolute and flat on a same day basis.

Tony: Our.

Ken Bowles: Our commitment to innovation, cost discipline, and quality has reinforced our reputation as not only the largest integrated player in the region, but also the most reliable packaging and supply chain partner for our customers. We have continued to make significant investments in our operations through new converting machines, upgrades to corrugators and safety systems, and substantial investments in our bag-in-box business, all ensuring we meet the evolving needs of our customers with market-leading innovation, quality, and service. Our LATAM segment again remained very strong in Q4. As you can see here, with sales of half a billion dollars, adjusted EBITDA of $121 million, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of over 23%. Again, we're looking at the comparative performance of the segment on a combined non-GAAP basis as per the September 8-K.

Tony: Fitment to innovation cost discipline and quantity has reinforced our reputation as not only the largest integrated player in the region, but also the most reliable packaging and supply chain partner for our customers.

Tony: We have continued to make significant investments in our operations through new converting machines upgrades to corrugated and safety systems and substantial investments in our bag in box business.

Tony: Ensuring we meet the evolving needs of our customers with market, leading innovation quality and service.

Tony: Carla and segment again remained very strong in the fourth quarter as you can see here with sides of half a billion dollars.

Tony: Adjusted EBITDA of $121 million.

Tony: And then adjusted EBITA margin of over 23%.

Tony: Again, we're looking at the comparative performance of the segments on a combined non-GAAP basis as per the September 8-K year on year, adjusted EBITDA and EBITDA margin were significantly higher in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Ken Bowles: Year-on-year, Adjusted EBITDA and EBITDA margin were significantly higher in Q4 2024. Corrugated box volumes were 3% lower on a same-day basis, with Argentina being an outsized drag on the region's demand picture of the fourth quarter, along with our value over volume strategy, seeing some pockets of volume contraction in places like Brazil and Colombia, as we continue to roll through some legacy contract structures. Nonetheless, by leveraging our strong track record in quality and service, we successfully implemented pricing initiatives that more than offset a negative foreign currency translation impact and the lower volumes in our box business to deliver this strong result. Latin America is a region we have operated in since the 1950s and is built on the best of both legacy companies.

Tony: Corrugated box volumes were 3% lower on a same day basis with Argentina being an outsized drag on the region's demand picture in the fourth quarter, along with our value over volume strategy seeing some pockets of volume contraction in places like Brazil, and Colombia, as we continue to roll through some legacy contract structures.

Tony: Nonetheless by leveraging our strong track record in quality and service, we successfully implemented pricing initiatives that were more that more than offset a negative foreign country currency translation impact and the lower volumes in our box business to deliver these strong results.

Tony: Latin America.

Tony: <unk> is a region we have operated in since 19 fifties and is built on the best of both legacy companies.

Ken Bowles: The region benefits from growing economies and a diverse customer base, and by leveraging our deep understanding of each local market, WestRock is well positioned to continue to drive long-term success. ... And finally, I want to outline how we think about capital allocation at Smurfit Westrock. Those who have followed Smurfit Kappa over the years will know how this framework is both flexible and returns focused at its core. As a team with deep industry experience, which you saw earlier on in the presentation, we see internally allocated capital, the lowest risk and highest quality form of investment, and that is a key to the future success of our business.

Tony: The region benefit from growing economies and a diverse customer base and by leveraging our deep understanding of each local market special West rock is well positioned to continue to drive long term success.

Tony: And finally I want to outline how we think about capital allocation of square for restaurants.

Tony: Those who have followed smurfit kappa over the years will know how this framework is both flexible and returns focused at its core.

Tony: As a team with deep industry experience, which you saw earlier on in the presentation, we see internally allocated capital the lowest risk and highest quality for our investments.

Tony: And that is a key to the future success of our business.

Ken Bowles: Upon closing the combination on 5 July last year, we conducted a comprehensive assessment of our capital needs right across the business, and as outlined at the end of October, CapEx for full year 2025 will be in the range of $2.2 to 2.4 billion, well ahead of depreciation. The dividend is also a cornerstone of our capital allocation strategy, and the Smurfit Westrock board recently approved a quarterly dividend of $0.4308 per share, up from $0.3025 per share. Again, delivering on our promise to pay a dividend stream in line with legacy SKG's progressive policy as we start our full year at Smurfit Westrock. The balance sheet of Smurfit Westrock has significant strength and flexibility, and we are committed to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating.

Tony: Upon closing the combination on July 5th last year, we conducted a comprehensive assessment of our capital needs right across the business and as the lines at the end of October Capex for full year 2025 will be in the range of $2 to $2 4 billion well ahead of depreciation.

Tony: The dividend is also a cornerstone of our capital allocation strategy and the Cfos report recently reported 40 308 cents per share up from 32.

Tony: Two five cents per share again, delivering on our promise to pay a dividend stream in line with legacy <unk> Progressive policy as we start our full year as smurfit restaurants.

Tony: The balance sheet of square for restaurants has significant strength and flexibility and we are committed to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating.

Ken Bowles: Indeed, given the scale of our operations and our ability to generate significant free cash flow, we are targeting a long-term leverage ratio of below 2 times through the cycle. We will also maintain a disciplined approach to M&A, and we'll benchmark any opportunities against all other capital allocation alternatives. The inclusion of other forms of shareholder returns underscores the flexibility of the framework to ensure that all avenues to create and return value to our shareholders are considered and benchmarked against all options. Ultimately, the framework, at its simplest, is about creating long-term value for all stakeholders. Lastly, as we note in the release, the year has started well. Based on that, and assuming current market conditions prevail, we anticipate delivering an Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.25 billion for Q1.

Tony: And indeed, given the scale of operations and our ability to generate significant free cash flow. We are targeting a long term leverage ratio of below two times through the cycles.

Tony: Yes.

Tony: We will also maintain a disciplined approach to M&A and will benchmark any opportunities against all other capital allocation alternatives.

Tony: And the inclusion of other forms of shareholder returns underscores the flexibility of the framework to ensure that all avenues to create and return value to our shareholders are considered and benchmark against all options.

Tony: Ultimately the framework at its simplest is about creating long term value for all stakeholders.

Tony: Lastly, as we noted in the release the year has started well based on that and assuming current market conditions prevail, we anticipate delivering an adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1 to $5 billion for the first quarter.

Tony: And with that I'll pass it back to Tony concluding remarks.

Ken Bowles: With that, I'll pass you back to Tony for concluding remarks.

Tony Smurfit: Thank you, Ken. As I said at the outset, I'm extremely excited about where we are, where we find ourselves in Smurfit Westrock. In our previous incarnation, we have shown and proved that we are a winning company with a winning team that has consistently delivered superior operating and financial performance. It is essentially the same team with significant, very significant added expertise from our new colleagues in WestRock. This company has a truly unrivaled scale with a geographic footprint that is without parallel, with a diverse product portfolio and a library of unique designs in all areas of our business. As we transfer innovation and best practice capabilities across the combined platform, we are and will open up opportunities for a growing customer base. What we have seen is that we have significant value-creating opportunities, both for growth and for cost takeout.

Tony: Thank you Ken.

Tony: As I said at the outset I am extremely excited about where we where we find ourselves in smurfit West rock.

Tony: In our previous incarnation, we've shown improve that we are winning company with a winning team that has consistently delivered superior operating and financial performance.

Tony: It is essentially the same team with significant very significant added expertise from our new colleagues in west rock.

Tony: This company has a truly unrivaled scale with a geographic footprint that is without parallel with a diverse product portfolio and our library of unique designs in all areas of our business.

Tony: As we transfer innovation and best practice capabilities across the combined platform. We are and we will open up opportunities for our growing customer base.

Tony: What we have seen is that we have significant value, creating opportunities both for growth and for cost takeout.

Tony Smurfit: But of course, we will do as we have always done this in a disciplined way, and in a way that ensures we get the returns that have been the hallmark of our company throughout its history. As I said at the beginning of the presentation today, we are so excited to have created a global leader in sustainable paper-based packaging. We're just seven months into our current transformation journey, a journey that we have been on before. In that time, we have brought together two cultures to form the new Smurfit Westrock culture. This performance-led culture will be the bedrock of our future success. Our industry has a fantastic long-term future as a producer of the most sustainable, innovative transport and merchandising medium that our customers and their customers, the end consumer, increasingly value.

Tony: But of course, we will do as we have always done this in a disciplined way and in a way that ensures we get the returns that have been the hallmark of our company throughout its history.

Speaker Change: As I said at the beginning of the presentation. Today. We are so excited to have created a global leader in sustainable paper based packaging.

Speaker Change: We're just seven months into our current transformation journey, a journey that we have been on before.

In that time, we've brought together two cultures to form the new smurfit Western culture.

Speaker Change: This performance led culture will be the bedrock of our future success.

Speaker Change: Our industry has a fantastic long term future as a producer of the most sustainable innovative transport and merchandising medium that our customers and their customers the end consumer increasingly value.

Speaker Change: The smurfit Westbrook offering with over 2000 designers everyday creating unique products across all of our product ranges gives us a competitive advantage in this fundamentally excellent markets.

Tony Smurfit: The Smurfit Westrock offering, with over 2,000 designers every day, creating unique products across all of our product ranges, gives us a competitive advantage in this fundamentally excellent market. Our team again has again delivered in the fourth quarter and indeed for the year. We as a management team have an owner-operator culture and are committed to continuing to drive growth, efficiency, innovation, and cost takeout, so that our stakeholders and our customers win. For the full year in 2025, we expect to deliver both continued and meaningful progress on this transformation journey. Thank you for taking the time to listen to Ken and myself, and I'll now hand you over to the operator for your questions. Thank you, operator. We'll take questions when you're ready.

Speaker Change: Our team again has again delivered in the fourth quarter and indeed for the year.

Speaker Change: We as a management team have an owner operator culture and are committed to continuing to drive growth efficiency innovation and cost takeout, so that our stakeholders and our customers win.

Speaker Change: For the full year in 2025, we expect to deliver both continued and meaningful progress on this transformation journey.

Speaker Change: Thank you for taking the time to listen to Ken and myself and I'll now hand, you over to the operator for your questions. Thank you operator, and we'll take questions when you're ready.

Operator: Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. We will take our first question. Your first question comes from the line of Philip Ng from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker Change: As a reminder to ask a question.

Speaker Change: Two questions one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced to withdraw your question. Please press star one again.

Speaker Change: We will take our first question.

Speaker Change: Your first question comes from the line of Philip <unk> from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Philip Ng: Hey, guys. I guess it's great to see your box volumes in North America in Q4, actually, stack up pretty in line with the broader industry, despite taking a Value Over Volume approach. So I guess my question is, Tony, as you kind of pivot to, you know, having a bigger focus on generating proper returns than box side and how you commercially approach things, taking more local level, what's been the early learnings thus far on the commercial side? And have you seen how have the contract negotiations progressed, as you kind of enter the new calendar year?

Speaker Change: Hey, guys.

Philip: I guess, it's great to see your box volumes in North America in the fourth quarter actually stack up pretty in line with the broader industry, despite taking a value of <unk> <unk>.

Speaker Change: William approach. So I guess my question is Tony as you kind of pivot to.

Speaker Change: Having a bigger focus on generating proper returns on the box side and how you commercially approach things taking more local level.

Speaker Change: What's been the early learnings thus far on the commercial side and have you seen how have the contract discussions progressed as you kind of enter the new calendar year.

Tony Smurfit: Yeah, it's a very good question, Philip. I mean, I think, you know, the value over volume strategy has been implemented really, you know, during, let's call it during the second half of last year. So we didn't see any real negative effects on volumes as we've gone through understanding some of our profitable and unprofitable customers. And so I would suspect you'll see some volume degradation as we have moved forward into fixing some of those, you know, poor issues that we've encountered. But that said, the value side of that should well offset that within the majority of cases.

Speaker Change: Yes, it's a very good question Philip I mean, I think the value over.

Speaker Change: Volume strategy has been implemented really.

Julien: Julien let's call it during the second half of last year. So we didn't see any real negative effects on volumes as we've gone through understanding some of our <unk>.

Speaker Change: Profitable.

Speaker Change: The unprofitable customers.

Speaker Change: So I would suspect youll see some.

Speaker Change: Volume.

Speaker Change: Degradation as we have moved forward into fixing some of those.

Speaker Change: <unk>.

Speaker Change: Poor core issues that we've encountered.

Speaker Change: But that said the value side of that should well offset that.

Speaker Change: The majority of cases, so I think I think.

Tony Smurfit: So I think you know the shortage, the volume performance that we've had in Q3 and Q4 has been you know not really affected by some of the issues that we've been addressing. And we would expect to see some of those as we move into the first half of this year. I think you know in particular market of Brazil, for example, we did see some effect where we were pushing very quickly on certain issues. And you saw our volumes contract a little bit in Brazil, but yet our profitability went up in Brazil. And I suspect you'd see the same effect as we go through 2025 in our other markets.

Speaker Change: The the shortage the volume performance that we've had in Q3 and Q4 has been not really affected by by some of the issues that we've been addressing and we would expect to see some of those as we move into the first half of <unk>.

Speaker Change: This year I think in particular market in Brazil. For example, we did see some effect, where we were we were pushing.

Speaker Change: Very quickly uncertain certain issues and you saw our volumes to contract a little bit in Brazil, but yet our profitability went up in Brazil.

Speaker Change: I suspect you would see the same effect as we go through 2025 and our other markets. We haven't thus far lost anything significant but I'm anticipating that we'll probably lose a little bit but then on the other hand to counteract that Philip we're going to see our innovations come through our.

Tony Smurfit: We haven't, thus far, lost anything significant, but I mean, I'm anticipating that we'll probably lose a little bit. But then, on the other hand, to counteract that, Philip, we're going to see, you know, our innovations come through, our ability to show our customers better, better ways to package. So all of those things will be in the mix as we go through 2025 and into 2026. And it's actually interesting, in Brazil, one of our larger customers that we did lose is already coming back to us. So, you know, when you have good quality and service, you know, and customers need you, then, you know, maybe you've been mispricing a little bit in the past.

Speaker Change: Our ability to show our customers better better ways to package. So all of those things will be in the mix as we go through 2025 and enter 2026 and its actually interesting in Brazil, one of our larger customers that we did lose is already coming back to us. So when you have good volume when you have good quality and service.

Speaker Change: Customers need you then.

Speaker Change: Maybe you bemis pricing a little bit in the past.

Philip Ng: Okay, that's great color, Tony, appreciate it. And, pretty encouraging out of the gate. And then, forgive me, I'm obviously a lot newer to the European containerboard market. I noticed you and a handful of your peers have price increases in the marketplace for February, March. I guess out of the gates, what's the feedback from your customers, and if you anticipate seeing traction? And can you walk us through the mechanics, too, and how you see box prices progressing sequentially the next few quarters? Since we've seen containerboard prices fall the last few months, call it the last 3 to 6 months, but you have increases out there. So do the box prices, I guess, trigger. And any color how we should think about box prices the next few quarters sequentially in Europe?

Tony: Okay, that's great color Tony I appreciate it and are pretty.

Tony: Pretty encouraging out of the gate, and then and forgive me I am obviously, a lot newer to the European containerboard market.

Speaker Change: As you and a handful of your peers that have price increases in the marketplace for February and March I guess out of the gate, what's the feedback from your customers and if you anticipate seeing traction.

Speaker Change: Can you walk us through the mechanics, and how do you see box prices progressing sequentially in the next few quarters since we've seen containerboard prices fall. The last few months call. It in the last three to six months, but you have increases out there so.

Speaker Change: Due to box price prices, I guess trigger and any color. How we should think about box prices next quarter sequentially and year.

Tony Smurfit: Yeah. Again, it's an excellent question, Philip. I mean, you know, if you look at our margins in Europe, and I think you can do the work yourself, to see how we can stack up with our competition. You'll see that we've radically outperformed because of our innovation and business model. And, you know, that's in spite of falling paper prices, which have fallen very substantially. And you'll see from, again, some of our independent third party players that actually produce more paper. You'll see that their profitability is de minimis, to say the least. And so, I mean, we've always had this seesaw model, that when paper went up, our box prices would suffer until we got our box prices up, and vice versa.

Speaker Change: Again, it's an excellent question.

Speaker Change: If you look at our margins in Europe, and I think you can do the work yourself, but to see how we stack up with our competition you will see that we've radically outperform because of our innovation business model and that's in spite of.

Speaker Change: Falling paper prices, which have fallen very substantially and youll see from again some of our independent third party players that actually.

Speaker Change: Produce more paper Youll see that their profitability is de minimis to say the least.

Speaker Change: So I.

Speaker Change: I mean, we've always had this <unk> model that when paper went up our box prices would suffer until we got our box prices up and vice versa, and that's what you've seen in our in our during.

Tony Smurfit: And that's what you've seen in our during the second half of last year, where our box prices, you know, held up pretty well, and we've been able to transfer profitability from paper to boxes. The paper system is completely at the bottom. And that's why the industry, in general, somewhere between, depending on the market, Philip, whether it's Italy, it might be a bit less, where in Germany it's a bit more, and the central areas. Somewhere between EUR 30 and 80 has been implemented during the month of February, as well as Kraftliner, which we've announced a price increase for, for March.

Speaker Change: During the second half last year, where our box prices held up pretty well and we've been able to transfer profitability from paper to boxes.

Speaker Change: Paper system is completely at the bottom.

Speaker Change: That's why the industry in general somewhere between depending on the market Philips, whether it's Italy, it might be a bit less where we're in Germany is a bit more in the central areas somewhere between 30 and 80 euros has been implemented during the month of February as well as Kraft liner, which will be which we've announced the price increase for March.

Tony Smurfit: So, I suspect they will all go through, and then we will be transferring from corrugated to paper, and then in the next six months, that we'll be transferring back into our corrugated box system, that increase in paper. So, you know, it's a continual area of improvement underneath that, where we're continuing to invest in our paper mills to reduce their cost base. So, and then at the same time, invest in our corrugated business to increase its innovation. And that's what's worked for us. And then, if you look at our margins, you know, obviously, we'd like them to be higher than 15.5 or 15 odd plus %.

Speaker Change: And so I suspect they will all go through.

Speaker Change: And then we will be transferring from from corrugated to paper and then in the next six months that we will be transferring from.

Speaker Change: Into our corrugated box system.

Speaker Change: The increase in paper, so it's a continual.

Speaker Change: An area of improvement underneath that where we're continuing to invest in our paper mills to reduce their cost base. So and then at the same time.

And our corrugated business to increase its innovation and and Thats Whats worked for US and then if you look at our margins.

Speaker Change: Obviously, we'd like them to be higher than 15, 5% 15, plus percent, but relative to the most of the peers. That's a much higher level. Because we are we have this integrated model. It works so well.

Tony Smurfit: But, you know, relative to the most of the peers, that's a, that's a much higher level, because we have this integrated model that works so well.

Philip Ng: Okay. Appreciate the great color. Thank you.

Speaker Change: Okay I appreciate the great color. Thank you.

Tony Smurfit: Thanks, Philip.

Kim: Thanks Kim.

Operator: Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Charlie Muresan from BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker Change: We will take our next question.

Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Charlie Muir Sands from BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Charlie Muir-Sands: Hi, guys. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one just relates to the $400 million plus of operational and commercial improvement opportunities that you've identified. I just wondered if you'd give us a little bit more color on some specific examples, and particularly, what actions you've taken so far, and what are planned to be implemented in 2025? Thanks.

Speaker Change: Hi, guys. Thank you for taking my questions.

Speaker Change: The first one just relates to the $400 million plus of.

Speaker Change: Operational and commercial improvement opportunities.

Speaker Change: You've identified I, just wondered if you could give us a little bit more color on some.

Speaker Change: A specific example.

Speaker Change: What actions you've taken so far and more are planned to be implemented in 2025.

Speaker Change: Yes.

Tony Smurfit: Yeah, well, I mean, I'll take the first piece of it. It's very simple, Charlie, that you know, there was a lot of underselling going on in the past. And you know, clearly, when you get back to plant level responsibility and you see some of the margins that exist with some businesses and contracts that have been signed. While you can't get out of all the contracts initially, those that you can get out of, you will immediately do so, and you won't lose all that business because you're actually a very good supplier and a high quality supplier with very good OTIF, which Legacy Westrock has been doing. In general, I would say it's a good quality supplier.

Speaker Change: Yes, I mean I'll take the first piece of it is very simple Charlie.

Speaker Change: There was a lot of under selling going on.

Speaker Change: <unk>.

Speaker Change: Sure.

Speaker Change: In the past.

Speaker Change: Clearly when you get back to plant level responsibility and Youll see some of the margins.

Speaker Change: That exist.

Speaker Change: With some.

Speaker Change: Businesses and contracts that have been signed.

Speaker Change: You can't get out of all the contracts are initially those that you can get out of you you will immediately do so and you won't lose all that business, because you're you're actually a very good supplier.

Speaker Change: High quality supplier with very good Otis, which with legacy West Rock has been has been doing it in general I would say it's.

Speaker Change: It's a good quality supplier it was a good quality supplier that had been under pricing many of the.

Tony Smurfit: It was a good quality supplier that had been underpricing many of the businesses that much of the business that it was doing, despite investing in its assets over the years. And then, the other improvement I'd give before I hand it over to Ken is that, you know, frankly speaking, you know, a lot of the things relative to how the businesses were run were not correctly done, because there wasn't enough focus on it. So we're obviously giving it the right focus, as we push things down. And, you know, Rome wasn't built in a day, so it doesn't happen very quickly. But what we can see is just by doing the basics much better, then, you know, we'll have tremendous opportunity to improve each and every business.

Speaker Change: Our business is that much of the business that it was doing.

Speaker Change: Despite investing in its assets over the years and then the other improvement I gave before I hand, it over to Ken is that frankly speaking.

Ken: A lot of other things relative to how the businesses were run.

Ken: We're not correctly done because there wasn't enough focus on it. So we're obviously, giving it the right focus as we push things down and Roma.

Ken: <unk> built in a day so it doesn't happen very quickly, but what we can see is just by doing the basics much better.

Ken: Then we.

Ken: We will have tremendous opportunity to improve each and every business I mean, we don't have in Europe.

Tony Smurfit: I mean, we don't have in Europe, our, the legacy Smurfit Kappa, any businesses in corrugated that lose any substantial amount of money, and that's not the case in legacy WestRock, and we intend to fix that. And just by that alone is something that we hadn't banked on. It's not nothing to do with the synergies; it's just about pure basic running your businesses better. And the people are capable of doing it; it's just they need to be. Or let's say the vast majority of people are capable of doing it. They just need the right direction and we're giving that, and I think it's working, you know, very well. I have to say that one of the things I've been incredibly impressed at is the quality of the people down at the operational level.

Ken: Orange.

Ken: Legacy legacy Smurfit Kappa any any businesses in corrugated that lose any substantial amount of money and that's not the case.

Ken: In legacy West rock, and we intend to fix that and just by that alone is something that we haven't hadn't banked on that nothing to do with the synergies that just about pure basic running your business is better and the people are capable of doing it it's just they need to be.

Ken: Let's say the vast majority of people are capable of doing it they just need to the right direction and we're giving that in and I think that's working.

Ken: Very well I have to say that one of the things I've been incredibly impressed us is the quality of the people down at the operational level and indeed, many of the people in Atlanta, who are really getting onboard for this program of becoming part of a winning team.

Tony Smurfit: And indeed, you know, many of the people in Atlanta who are really getting on board for this program of becoming a part of a winning team. As I say, I've been really impressed with so many of our new colleagues in WestRock, that I can't speak highly enough of them. Obviously, not everybody's gonna make the cut, but those that do are really going to be part of a winning team. Ken, you wanna add anything?

Ken: As I say I've been really impressed with so many of our new colleagues in west rock.

Ken: I can't speak highly enough of them, obviously, not everybody is going to make the cut but those that do are really going to be part of a winning team Ken do you want to add anything yes Charlie.

Ken Bowles: Yeah. Hey, Charlie. I suppose if you leave aside the commercial side of the house, look, it's about, you know, shining a light on every aspect of the cost structures that exist. And remember, when you think about this combination, it is two very large public companies coming together. So there's a lot here about leveraging the size and scale of the operation in terms of what would naturally be combined programs, whether that's around insurance arrangements or external suppliers of the same service, or actually just fundamentally looking at the systems in play and rolling out one over the other. So we're kind of finding them on a phased basis. It'd be difficult to kind of pin it to any quarter.

Ken: I suppose if you leave aside the commercial side of the house.

Ken: It's a bet.

Ken: Shining a light on every aspect of the cost structures that exist and remember when you think about this combination is to very large public companies coming together. So there's a lot here, but leveraging the size and scale of the operation in terms of what would naturally be combined programs, whether thats around insurance arrangements or external suppliers at the same service or actually just fundamentally looking at the system.

Ken: And play and rolling out one over the other so we're kind of finding them on a phased basis it would be difficult to kind of finish any quarter, we'll know where they are there, but a lot of things just wait for the contracts to renew and again, we don't we're not going to renew that because we already have a system in place while we've chosen a different provider or are we leverage it for the future forward. So I think it's kind of an iterative process.

Ken Bowles: We'll know whether they're there, but a lot of things, just wait for the contract to renew, and again, we don't, we're not gonna renew that because we already have a system in place, or we've chosen a different provider, or we leverage it for the future forward. So I think it's kind of an iterative process that everybody's on board with. You know, both organizations had very active cost takeout programs, so it's not a skill set that's unknown to either side of the house. I think what the level we're asking to go to here is basically go back to, if you think of the centers, go back to zero-based budgeting and kind of justify the spend and go from there. Which in reality is what the teams are doing.

Ken: First that everybody's on board with both organizations had very active cost takeout programs. So it's not a skill set that's unknown to either side of the house.

Ken: I think what the the level, we're asking to go through here is basically go back to if you think of the centers is go back to zero based budgeting and kind of justify the spend and go from there.

Ken: Which in reality is what the teams are doing so it will it will appear in the numbers across the year.

Ken Bowles: So it'll appear in the numbers across the year, but you know, I think it's no more than we said in October, outside the $400 million synergy target, this number we have, we have real confidence over. Because we can see and feel it around us, and progressively the teams are seeing and feeling it as well, you know, beyond, if you like, the commercial stuff that Tony talks about. So I think we'll see it come through in the year. And, you know, in reality, we're already seeing some of that come through, and some good ideas around how we can accelerate that.

Ken: It's no more than we said in October as side, the 400 million synergy target. This number we have we have real confidence over because we can see and feel that around us and progressive is the teams are seeing and feeling it as well.

Speaker Change: And do you feel like the commercial stuff that Tony talked to base. So I think we'll see it come through in the year and in reality, we're already seeing some of that come through and some good ideas around how we can accelerate that.

Charlie Muir-Sands: Fantastic. Just my brief second question, just regarding your Q1 expectations, can you give any color on whether you think maintenance costs are gonna be particularly different year-over-year or quarter-over-quarter? And if there are any other big moving parts you'd wanna call out that's embedded in that guidance beyond the kind of operating and pricing and volumes, et cetera? Thanks.

Speaker Change: And just my brief.

Speaker Change: Second question just regarding your Q1 expectations.

Speaker Change: Can you give any color on whether you think maintenance costs are going to be 60 different year on year or quarter on quarter. Okay is there any other big maybe you can talk to you on our call outs, that's embedded in that guidance beyond the kind of pricing and pricing and volumes et cetera.

Ken Bowles: Yeah, sure, Charlie. I think, you know, the year started well from the demand perspective, so probably, you know, not a lot coming through there in terms of its volumes will be fine. In terms of pricing, given Tony's come through there and where paper sits, unlikely to see any massive impacts on paper or box in the first quarter. Broadly, most of the cost buckets remain stable. Energy in Europe, clearly spiking a little bit over the last few days. OCC kind of trending around the same kind of levels. And then in terms of maintenance downtime, quarter-over-quarter, I think the net impact is actually largely material. I think it's $10 million less in Q1 versus Q4 last year.

Speaker Change: Yes, sure Jeremy I think the year has started well for demand perspective, so probably not a lot coming through there in terms of its volumes will be fine in terms of pricing given tony's come through there and where our papers it unlikely to see any massive impacts on pay per our box in the first quarter broadly most of the cost focus remained stable energy in Europe, clearly spiking, a little bit over the last few days.

Speaker Change: OCC kind of trending around the same kind of levels.

Speaker Change: And then in terms of maintenance downtime quarter over quarter, I think I think the net impact is actually largely immaterial I think it's $10 million less in quarter, one versus quarter four last year.

Speaker Change: Great. Thank you very much.

Charlie Muir-Sands: Great. Thank you very much.

Tony Smurfit: Thanks, Charlie.

Charlie: Thanks, Charlie.

Operator: Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Gabe Hajde from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker Change: Thank you.

Speaker Change: We will take our next question.

Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Gabe <unk> from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker Change: Good morning, Ken Good morning.

Gabe Hajde: Tony and Ken, good morning.

Tony Smurfit: Good morning, Gabe.

Gabe Hajde: I wanted to ask about just the, the price discovery process in North America specifically, but just now that you've had six months or, or more, and looking across both sides of the pond, price discovery in North America, how important is that process, kind of on a more medium-term basis? And at this point, do you guys sort of envision trying to decouple from some of the benchmarks that are out there, implementing your own kind of, pricing models with, with your clients over time?

Speaker Change: And again I wanted to ask about.

Speaker Change: Yes.

Speaker Change: The price discovery process in North America, specifically, but just now that you've had six months or more.

Speaker Change: And looking across both sides of the pond.

Speaker Change: Price discovery in North America, how important is that process.

Speaker Change: On a more medium term basis.

Speaker Change: And at this point do you guys sort of envision trying to decouple from some of the benchmarks that are out there implementing your own kind of pricing models with your clients over time.

Gabe: I'll take the second part of it Gabe and then I'll ask.

Tony Smurfit: I'll take the second part of it, Gabe, and then I'll ask Ken to talk about the first part. You know, obviously there's a lot of noise about RISI and whether or not we should decouple. I mean, we, in a sense, are decoupling to some extent, because whenever we feel that the pricing of individual customers is badly done, then clearly we will, we'll talk to them. And if there are other extraneous factors such as inflation, such as, you know, higher costs in a particular region of energy, then we will again, you know, address that individually with our customers.

Ken: Ken to talk about the first part.

Ken: Obviously, theres a lot of noise about <unk> and whether or not we should these couple of I mean.

Ken: In a sense, our decoupling to some extent because whenever we feel that the pricing of individual customers.

Ken: Badly done.

Ken: Then then clearly we will we will talk to them and if there are other extraneous factors such as inflation such as higher cost in a particular region of energy than we will again address that individually with our customers and we have made.

Tony Smurfit: And, you know, we have made, you know, a lot of provision in many of our contracts in Europe specifically, about putting in inflation clauses that weren't there in the previous cycle, if you want to go back to prior to the inflation movements. So we have adjusted things considerably. With regard to RISI, you know, I don't yet have a better benchmark. We try to be fair with all of our customers over the long period of time, and you know, basically, you know, there is one benchmark out there for customers and ourselves to try and look to see where price movements of paper are going, and that's RISI. And so we don't have a better benchmark than that.

Ken: Lot of provision in many of our contracts in Europe, specifically about putting an inflation clauses that werent there in the.

Ken: The previous cycle, if you want to go back to prior to the inflation movements. So we have adjusted things considerably with regard to <unk> I don't yet have a better benchmark, we try to be fair with all of our customers over the long period of time and.

Ken: Basically.

Ken: There is one benchmark out there for our customers and ourselves to.

Ken: Try and.

Ken: Look to to see where pricing movements of paper are going and that is <unk> and so we don't have a better benchmark than that.

Tony Smurfit: You know, sometimes you could argue that the tail wags the dog, and I know some of our competitors have been saying that, that the integrated, or sorry, the independents are wagging that particular issue. But I think, you know, over time, it has proven to be a reasonably good benchmark. But, you know, you do have to have within your own pricing with customers, you know, ways to move things if things go outside of the paper movements, and that's what we do. So until somebody comes up with a better idea, we'll probably stick with where we're at with our customers, because we think it's basically fair. Now, I'm not saying they get it right all the time, they don't.

Ken: Sometimes you could argue that the tailwind Doug that I know some of our competitors have been saying that the integrated.

Speaker Change: Sorry, the independents are a lagging that particular.

Ken: Issue, but I.

Ken: I think over time, it has proven to be a reasonably good benchmark.

Ken: But you do have to have within your own pricing with customers.

Ken: Ways to ways to move things if things go outside of outside of the paper movements and that's what we do so until somebody comes up with a better idea would probably stick with where we're at with our customers. Because we think it's basically fair not to say they get it right all the time, they don't but but.

Tony Smurfit: But you know, like, obviously, that's what we think is the best movement for the time being. Ken?

Ken: Like obviously, that's that's what we think is the best movement for the time being.

Ken: Okay.

Ken Bowles: Sure. Hey, Gabe. Hopefully, I'm understanding your question correctly, Gabe, but if I don't, please correct me. But in terms of our price discovery, it's like within WestRock, I think, you know, fundamentally, I think the model that the WestRock business operated was one of an integrated margin across both businesses. So, you know, combining the paper and the box business to deliver one combined margin for the organization. That sort of, that's sort of counterintuitive slightly, because you take the focus off the mill and the box individually, and we see those as two profit centers. So I think when we broke out that and placed the mills back in the mills and boxes to boxes, you were able to see quite clearly where value was being delivered, and quite simply, where value was not being delivered.

Ken: Hey, Gabe and hopefully I'm understanding your question correctly Gabe.

Ken: Please correct me, but in terms of our price discovery.

Ken: Within within West Rock I think.

Ken: Fundamentally I think the model at the restaurant business operated with one of an integrated margin across both businesses. So combining the paper in the box business to deliver one combined margin for the organization.

Ken: That's.

Ken: And that's sort of counterintuitive is slightly because you take the focus off the mill on the box plant individually and we see those as two profit centers. So I think when we when we broke out at ash in place the mills back in the Mills and box is the boxes, you are able to see quite clearly where value was being delivered and quite simply remind you was not been delivered.

Ken Bowles: I think you align that though, with the proper responsibility at the local level, which we're driving down, which gives, you know, people a very individual focus on what they're achieving and delivering, and quite simply, against their peer set in the country and indeed, against the group overall. So, you know, it is really about being as granular as you can on the income statement and giving people responsibility and control, and indeed accountability over all those items. And that flows directly into where our capital sits, because quite simply, the model is, you know, we allocate capital based on returns, but you need to be able to see those returns at the lowest level possible. And indeed, those returns generate additional capital. At least you can see where capital wins and capital quite simply doesn't win.

Ken: I think you align that though with the proper responsibility at the local level, which are driving down which gives people a very individual focus on what they are achieving and delivering and quite simply against our peer set in the country entities against the group overall so.

Ken: Is really about athene as granular as you can on the income statement and giving people responsibility and control and indeed accountability overall, those items and that flows directly into our capital sit because quite simply the model as we allocate capital based on returns.

Ken: But you need to see those returns at the lowest level possible and indeed generate those returns generate additional capital at least you can see where capital wins and capital quite simply it doesn't win so I think the discovery piece was moving away from a blended margin back to individual margins, which allows pure accountability at the local level hopefully.

Ken Bowles: So I think the discovery piece was moving away from a blended margin back to individual margins, which allows pure accountability at the local level. Hopefully, I've captured that there.

Ken: <unk> out there.

Ken: Yes, no that's helpful.

Gabe Hajde: Yep. No, that's helpful. One on just maybe more nearer term. You gave us the $1.25 for Q1, and I appreciate there's, there's no good year, at least in the past five, that's sort of representative. But when we think about the organization, maybe in halves, you're realizing this $400 million of, of kind of identified synergies plus the incremental. Is there a way to think about weighting for, and then maybe taking into account just maintenance? You mentioned, I think, $10 million lower on a sequential basis into Q1, but weighting first half to second half in terms of earnings power for the business.

Ken: One on just maybe more near term you gave us a one 5% for the first quarter and I. Appreciate there is there is no good year.

Ken: In the past five that sort of representative but when we think about the organization maybe in halves.

Ken: Realizing this $400 million of.

Ken: Kind of identified synergies plus the incremental.

Ken: Is there a way to think about waiting for and then maybe taking into account just maintenance.

Ken: You mentioned I think $10 million lower on a sequential basis into the first quarter, but.

Ken: Waiting first half second half in terms of earnings power for the business.

Ken Bowles: Not really. I don't think at this point, given where we sit in terms of pricing and even cost inputs, Gabe, it's probably very largely phased quarter to quarter, broadly, you know, similar quarter to quarter as we sit here now. Clearly, that would be changed if paper prices come through by the end of March, for example. You'd expect to see some price progression on boxes as we get towards the back end of this year.

Ken: Not really I don't think at this point, given where we sit in terms of pricing and cost inputs Gabe, it's probably very largely phased.

Ken: Broadly.

Ken: In their quarter to quarter as we sit here now clearly that would be changed if paper prices come through by the end of.

Ken: March for example, we would expect to see some price progression of boxes as we get towards the back end of this year, but.

Ken Bowles: But, you know, absent everything else, I think when you look at the statement and that comment at the end that Tony makes around, you know, continue, a continued year of progress, I think you can take that as broadly the quarter we sit in, annualized, plus what we're doing, as you say, around synergies and some of the other commercial opportunities.

Ken: Absent everything else I think when you look at the safe in that comment at the end of Tony makes around.

Ken: Continued a continued area of progress I think you can take that as broad at the quarter, we sit in annualized plus what we're doing as you say around synergies and some of the other commercial opportunities.

Tony Smurfit: Yeah. Typically speaking, Gabe-

Ken: Typically speaking get typically speaking.

Gabe Hajde: Thank-

Tony Smurfit: You know, typically speaking, you know, your Q1 and Q4 are a little bit weaker than your Q2 and Q3. But you know, obviously, it depends on the year. It depends on the movements of different aspects. It depends on what happens with energy, depends on what happens with, but with, you know, any number of factors that could be coming in to affect you. But you know, normally speaking, your busier months are summer times for packaging products and spring, summer, and fall.

Ken: Your first and last quarters are a little bit weaker than your middle quarters.

Ken: Obviously, it depends on the year it depends on the movements of different different aspects depends on what happens with energy depends on what happens with.

Ken: But with any.

Ken: Any number of factors that could be coming into effect you but.

Ken: Normally speaking your busier months, our summer's summer times for packaging.

Ken: Spring and summer and fall.

Ken: Thank you good luck.

Gabe Hajde: Thank you. Good luck.

Okay.

Tony Smurfit: Thanks, Gabe.

Operator: Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Lars Kjellberg from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Ken: Thank you.

Ken: We will take our next question.

Ken: Our next question comes from the line of loss of Capex from Stifel. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker Change: Thank you and thank you for providing first quarter guidance I just wanted to get some more sense.

Lars Kjellberg: Thank you, and thank you for providing Q1 guidance. I just want to get some more sense of the cadence of synergies. I mean, you speak to around $400 million by year-end. How should we think about this as the year develops? I mean, you've taken out a chunk of fixed costs, etc., in last year, and which of course is should be in the numbers now, broadly speaking. But how, again, cadence of that? Second point, when you're talking about the opportunities beyond that $400 million, do you expect to get any of that coming through in this year? I guess you – you need to spend the money and, but I, I suppose this is not all CapEx related, so any of that should surface in 2025, or should we really looking beyond into 2026 to get that incremental?

Speaker Change: The cadence of synergies I mean, do you speak to around 400 million by year end.

Speaker Change: How should we think about this as the year develops.

Speaker Change: <unk> taken a large chunk of fixed costs that trend.

Speaker Change: Last year in which of course is should be in the numbers now broadly speaking about how again cadence of that second point when.

Speaker Change: When you're talking about see opportunities beyond that $400 million.

Speaker Change: Do you expect to get any of that coming through in this year. I guess, you think you need to spend the money in.

Speaker Change: I suppose cases, not all capex.

Speaker Change: So.

Speaker Change: Any of that <expletive> in 'twenty five we should be.

Speaker Change: Really looking beyond into 2016.

Speaker Change: Incremental.

Speaker Change: Thanks Lars.

Ken Bowles: Thanks, Lars. But the look on my boss's face says I'm getting both of these questions.

Speaker Change: My boss has faced as im getting both of these questions.

Tony Smurfit: No, no, I'll help you on the second one.

Speaker Change: On the second one.

Ken Bowles: I think, look, if we take the synergy number, I think you're gonna see it phased, you know, ramping up as you get through the year. I think the 400 full run rate for 2026 will sit there. I think don't forget the cost to achieve, which is in the order of $235 million. I think the net-net for this year, we probably see is about, you know, in the 150 space, you'll see coming through the income statement. That includes the cost to achieve. I think the first quarter, you could probably think about that number as being something like 30, you know, if you want to put something on it. But we'll sort of know by the end of the quarter what the impact and achievement was in that sense.

Speaker Change: I think look if we take the synergy number I think youre going to see phase ramping up as we get through the year I think the 400 full run rate for 2016 and sit there I think don't forget the cost to achieve which is in the order of $235 million.

Speaker Change: I think the net net for this year, we probably see is about $1 50 space, you'll see coming through the income statement that includes the cost to achieve I think the first quarter, you could probably think about that number as being something like Turkey.

Speaker Change: Something on it but we will know whether we sort of know where the end of the quarter, what the impact of an achievement that sense.

Ken Bowles: On the second 400, you know, a lot of that is not necessarily linked to CapEx predominantly. We are, we talked a little bit this last quarter about our quick win program. But, you know, it's not CapEx dependent, so you should see it come through the quicker we get at it. But harder, equally, to identify because it's just about, quite honestly, it's the hard yards on taking costs out in a lot of places. As Tony said earlier, on the commercial side, it really is about waiting for contracts to come up for renewal and then renegotiating in a way that's, you know, more profitable, to be quite honest with you, than the previous contract.

Speaker Change: On the second 400.

Speaker Change: A lot of that is not necessarily linked to capex predominantly we are we talked a little bit this last quarter, but a quick one program.

Speaker Change: But it is not capex dependent so you should see it come through the quicker we get at it.

Speaker Change: But harder to equally to.

Speaker Change: To identify because its just debate quite honestly is the hard yards on taking cost out in a lot of places and as Tony said earlier on the commercial side. It really is about waiting for contracts to come up for renewal and then renegotiating in a way that's.

Speaker Change: More profitability quite honestly it is under the previous contract so.

Ken Bowles: So, more difficult to phase, but I think, you know, all we can do, as you know as well, is as we get through the quarters, you know, we can give you some good ideas on where we've hit or landed, too, and indeed, how we think about it in the context of the full year. Probably have much more better visibility as we get through Q1 and Q2, to be fair.

Speaker Change: More difficult phase, but I think all we can do as well.

Speaker Change: As we get through the quarters, we can give you some good ideas on where we hit our longitude and indeed, how we think about it in the context of the full year, probably have much more better visibility as we get through quarter, one and two to be fair.

Speaker Change: Alright, just one on the dividend any other considerations.

Lars Kjellberg: All right. Just, just one on the dividend. Was there any other consideration than just getting back to the old Smurfit West, Smurfit Kappa dividend, or anything else behind that big increase in Q4?

Speaker Change: I mean getting back to the old smelter.

Speaker Change: Smith capital dividend anything else behind that big increase in Q4.

Ken Bowles: There was a lot of debate, Lars, as you can imagine, 'cause you're trying to align two very different policies, two very different payment cycles, and two very different trajectories over the last number of years. I think on balance, where we left it was, if you think about the 2023 dividend for Smurfit Kappa shareholders being at $1.64, I think, in real money, you know, the Westrock shareholders probably would have ended on the cash base in 2024, but $1.20, $1.21 actually. But I think the dividend for Smurfit Kappa in 2024 was much higher than that, based on the fact that the last two quarters were $0.30, so probably landed in the $1.80 base.

Speaker Change: There was a lot of debate learns as you can imagine because you are trying to align to very different policies to two very different payment cycles and to two very different trajectories over the last number of years.

Speaker Change: On balance where we left it was if you think about the 2023 dividends for Smurfit Kappa shareholders being that $1 64, I think an ria money the westar shareholders, probably would event on the cash base in 'twenty, four but $1 2021 actually.

Speaker Change: But I think that the dividend for Smurfit Kappa and 24 was much higher than that based on the fact that the last two quarters of <unk>. So probably landed in the $1 80 space. So trying to triangulate between those three things to give them.

Ken Bowles: So, trying to triangulate between those three things to give what, you know, still presents as a progressive dividend forward, land us back at, we think, you know, the Smurfit Kappa 2023 dividend of €1.64, plus a reasonable increase of 5%, gives you over the four quarters, where you end up with the €0.43. I think equally, when we think about the allocable cash flows and how they're split, no more than we've done in the past, I think that represents a fair share of the pre-CapEx cash flows, probably something in the order of 22% to 25% for the year. So they were really the broad considerations around how we got there.

Speaker Change: <unk> presents as a progressive dividend forward lenders back at we think the Smurfit Kappa 23 dividend of $1 64, but the reason the increase of 5% gives you over the four quarters, where you end up with the 43.

Speaker Change: I think equally when we think about the allocable cash flows and how they are spent no more than we've done in the past I think that represents a fair share of the pre capex cash flow is probably something in the order of 22% to 25% for the year. So they were really the broad considerations around how we got there.

Lars Kjellberg: Great. Thank you.

Speaker Change: Alright, thank you.

Tony Smurfit: Thanks, Lars.

Ross: Thanks Ross.

Speaker Change: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Detlef Winkelmann from JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker Change: We will take our next question.

Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Douglas <unk> from Jpmorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Detlef Winckelmann: Hi there. Thanks for taking my question. Just two ones quickly. Maybe the first one just to clarify, you mentioned a synergy number of $30 underlying that $1,250 in Q1. If I'm understanding that right, you should be getting a full year synergy number of $400, so call it $100 a quarter. Should I be reading that as $30 of the $100 a quarter is already in Q1, or just making sure I got that right before my next question?

Moussa Mahdaoui: Hi there. Thanks for taking my question. Just two ones quickly. Maybe the first one just to clarify, you mentioned a synergy number of $30 underlying that $1,250 in Q1. If I'm understanding that right, you should be getting a full year synergy number of $400, so call it $100 a quarter. Should I be reading that as $30 of the $100 a quarter is already in Q1, or just making sure I got that right before my next question?

Douglas: Alright, Thanks for taking my question just two ones quickly maybe the first one just to clarify you mentioned.

Douglas: Synergy number of city underlying that one to five <unk> in Q1.

Douglas: If I'm understanding that right you should be getting a full year.

Douglas: Synergy number 400, so call it a 100 a quarter.

Douglas: Should I be reading that as you have a 100 a quarter is already in Q1 or just making sure I got that wrong Nicole next question.

Ken Bowles: Yeah, Detlef, you're thinking the net would be 30. So remember, the $400 million synergy number had $235 million of costs attached to achieve, before you get to the full year, the full run rate in 2026 of the like, of the 400 run rate base. So the 30 for Q1 is a net number. For the full year, on a net basis, synergy minus the cost to achieve, you're probably thinking about, you know, given the phasing and timing, about 150, slightly ahead of that for the year.

Speaker Change: Detlef you think.

Detlef: The Nash will be turkeys. They remember the 400 million synergy number had 3200 35 million of cost attached to achieve before you get to the full.

Detlef: A full run rate in 2006, if you like of the 400 and your base. So the Turkey for quarter. One is a net number for the full year on a net basis synergy minus the cost to achieve youre, probably thinking about given the phasing and timing of that 150 slightly ahead of that for the year.

Detlef Winckelmann: Okay. Got it. Thank you. And then maybe just one more follow-up, just regarding energy, and you kind of alluded to it earlier, that energy prices are spiking. Can you remind us or give us some kind of guidance as to where your hedging is at the moment, specifically in Europe, on energy side?

Moussa Mahdaoui: Okay. Got it. Thank you. And then maybe just one more follow-up, just regarding energy, and you kind of alluded to it earlier, that energy prices are spiking. Can you remind us or give us some kind of guidance as to where your hedging is at the moment, specifically in Europe, on energy side?

Detlef: Okay got it. Thank you and then maybe just one more follow up just regarding energy and you kind of alluded to it earlier.

Detlef: Energy prices are spiking.

Detlef: Can you remind us or give us some kind of guidance as to where youre hedging is at the moment specifically in Europe on energy side.

Detlef: We're about 25% hedged in Europe for Q1.

Tony Smurfit: We're about 25% hedged in Europe for Q1, and a little bit less than that, Q2, Q3, and Q4. But obviously, you know, so we will have an effect on energy, and that's built into our numbers as we look at it. So it will be a, you know, not immaterial increase for Q1, but as I said, that's built into our numbers in our forecast. You know, obviously the big buckets for risk are currency, tariffs, and energy. And, you know, unless energy were to really go crazy in March, then I think that, you know, we'll be okay on that bucket. You know, we haven't had a question yet on tariffs, but I'm sure somebody will ask it shortly.

Detlef: A little bit less than that Q2, three and four but obviously.

Detlef: So we will have an effect on the energy and Thats built into our numbers as we when we when we look at it so it will be.

Detlef: Another immaterial increase for Q1, but as I said, that's built into our numbers and in our forecast.

Detlef: Obviously, the big buckets for risk or currency tariffs and energy.

Detlef: Unless unless energy were to really go Crazy in March then I think that.

Detlef: Where the okay on that bucket.

Detlef: Not a question yet on tariffs, but I'm sure somebody will ask it. Shortly obviously, we don't know what's going to happen with regard to tariffs.

Tony Smurfit: You know, obviously, you know, we don't know what's gonna happen with regard to tariffs in March, and that's an open question. And then, you know, currencies continue to be volatile and, you know, they are the dollar being strong is in one part very good, but it also obviously means something in translation of our earnings backwards from euros into dollars, which is the reporting currency. So, you know, there are some pockets of risk that are moving around, but, you know, at the moment we're okay. But, you know, we wouldn't want to see energy spike much more than this as we go through into March.

Detlef: In March.

Detlef: That's an open question and then currencies continued to be volatile and they are the dollar being strong is it.

Detlef: One part very good but also obviously means something in translation of our earnings backwards from from from euros into into.

Detlef: The $1, which is the reporting currency. So there are some pockets of risk that are moving around but at the moment were okay.

Detlef: But we wouldn't want to see energy spike much more.

Detlef: This as we go through into March.

Detlef Winckelmann: Perfect. Thanks.

Moussa Mahdaoui: Perfect. Thanks.

Ed: Thanks, Ed.

Ken Bowles: I'd also say, Detlef, don't forget that when energy prices spiked before in Europe, we were well able to optimize our system to ensure that we managed that, whatever the impact of that was. And keep in mind, too, that we probably generate about 50% of our energy internally anyway, through renewables and everything else, and not necessarily fully exposed to that kind of price for the unhedged portion.

Ed: I'd also say that don't forget, though when energy prices spiked before in Europe, where we're well able to optimize our system to ensure that we manage that whatever the impact of that was and keep in mind too that we probably generate about 50% of our energy internally endometrial renewables and everything else and not necessarily fully expose that kind of price for the unhedged portion.

Speaker Change: Perfect. Thanks, and then if I can squeeze in one more and I know you've kind of alluded to it regarding the.

Detlef Winckelmann: Perfect. Thanks. Then if I can squeeze in one more, and I know you kind of alluded to it, regarding the maintenance, you know, kind of $10 million quarter-over-quarter, but just more in absolute terms, in terms of maintenance, is Q1 normally quite a high maintenance quarter? I mean, imagine Q1, Q4, quite high, Q2, Q3, not as high. Am I thinking about that right?

Moussa Mahdaoui: Perfect. Thanks. Then if I can squeeze in one more, and I know you kind of alluded to it, regarding the maintenance, you know, kind of $10 million quarter-over-quarter, but just more in absolute terms, in terms of maintenance, is Q1 normally quite a high maintenance quarter? I mean, imagine Q1, Q4, quite high, Q2, Q3, not as high. Am I thinking about that right?

Speaker Change: Maintenance kind of $10 million quarter on quarter, but just more in absolute terms in terms of maintenance is Q1 normally quite a high maintenance quarter.

Speaker Change: Q1, Q4 quite high Q2, Q3, not as high.

Speaker Change: Thinking about that right.

Tony Smurfit: No, I think Q2 is normally our highest maintenance, because in some of the colder climates, you tend not to do maintenance during Q1. And in Q4, you don't do it because of, you know, the weather issues, and of course, getting staff. So normally, Q2 and Q3 are the biggest maintenance quarters, and certainly, if you look at our forecast, Q2 is probably gonna be our biggest maintenance quarter.

Speaker Change: No I think Q2 is normally our highest maintenance because you tend not to do and some of the colder climates you tend not to do maintenance during during Q1.

Speaker Change: And in Q4, you don't do it because the weather issues.

Speaker Change: And then of course getting staff. So normally Q2 and Q3 are the biggest maintenance quarter. Then certainly if you look at our forecast Q2 is probably going to be our biggest maintenance quarter.

Detlef Winckelmann: Cool. Thanks very much.

Moussa Mahdaoui: Cool. Thanks very much.

Speaker Change: Got it thanks very much.

Operator: ... Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Pettinari from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker Change: Alright, thank you.

Speaker Change: We will take our next question.

Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Pettinari from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Anthony Pettinari: Hi, good morning.

Anthony Pettinari: Good morning.

Tony Smurfit: Morning.

Speaker Change: Good morning.

Anthony Pettinari: Hey, Tony, you teed up the question on tariffs. So I'm just wondering, you know, obviously, we don't know what form those will take, but what the potential impacts could be, you know, either directly or indirectly when you look at your footprint. And I guess I'm specifically interested in you have a large Mexican business, and I'm just wondering how much product maybe crosses the US-Mexico border there.

Speaker Change: Tony you teed up the question on tariffs. So I'm just wondering obviously, we don't know what form those will take but what the potential impact could be either directly or indirectly. When you look at your footprint and I guess I'm specifically interested in you have a large Mexican business and I'm just wondering how much <unk>.

Speaker Change: Maybe crosses.

Speaker Change: The U S Mexico border there.

Speaker Change: I mean, Anthony a lot I mean at the end of the day, it's not it's not all of our products that cross the with a very small amount of our.

Tony Smurfit: I mean, Anthony, a lot. I mean, you know, at the end of the day, it's not, it's not us- our products that cross the... We've a very small amount of direct products of ours that transfer across the border. But, you know, all the food and vegetables, fruit and vegetables that we do, protein that we do, you know, on the Mexican border, the Querétaro region, you know, is going across the border, and we package a lot of that. So, you know, there will be a, I would say, a very significant customer effect. And, you know, obviously, you know, tariffs are on the consumer.

Speaker Change: A direct product of ours that transfer across the border, but all the food food and vegetables fruit and vegetables that we do protein that we do on the Mexican border the <unk> region.

Speaker Change: Is.

Speaker Change: As is.

Speaker Change: Going across the border and we packaged a lot of that so there will be a I would say a very significant customer effect.

Speaker Change: Obviously tariffs around the consumer so at the end of the day is the consumer going to pay 25% more for their avocados and their oranges, and the payers and they're apples or whatever they buy.

Tony Smurfit: So at the end of the day, is the consumer gonna pay 25% more for their avocados and their oranges and their pears and their apples or whatever they buy? You know, we'll have to wait and see, because that's, that'll be up to the American consumer and how that affects demand. With regard to Canada, I mean, Canada is slightly different for us because we've one big mill in Canada, and that exports to the United States. And obviously, you know, that would. If that mill had to apply a 25% tariff, we'll have to figure out how we would adjust that mill situation there, because that would be very uncompetitive very quickly. So we'll have to think about that. So that would be so there are two different things.

Speaker Change: We'll have to wait and see because.

Speaker Change: That'll be up to the American consumer and how that affects demand with regards to Canada.

Speaker Change: Canada is slightly different for us because we have one big mill in Canada that exports to the United States and obviously that would if that mill have to apply a 25% tariff will have to figure out how we would.

Speaker Change: Adjust that mill situation there because.

Speaker Change: That would be very uncompetitive very quickly. So we will have to think about that so that will be so there are two different things Mexico really is end customer effect on consumer in America and the other is one specific asset we have in Canada.

Tony Smurfit: Mexico really is end customer effect on consumer in America, and the other is one specific asset we have in Canada. There are other assets in Canada, and we do extremely well with those assets, and we've got great market positions. And I have to say, as I said before, you know, really impressed with the people up there. But, you know, we do export to the United States from one of our mills, and that, that, that would, we'd have to take a good look at that and, and it would have an impact on the, on the profitability of that mill. But how long these tariffs last for, who, who knows, Anthony?

Speaker Change: There are other assets in Canada, and we do extremely well with those assets and we've got great market positions.

Speaker Change: I have to say as I said before really impressed with the people up there, but we do export to the United States from one of our mills.

Speaker Change: That would we'd have to take a good look at that.

Speaker Change: And it would have an impact on the profitability of that mill, but how long these tariff last four who knows Anthony.

Speaker Change: Okay.

Anthony Pettinari: Okay, that's very helpful. And then I'm curious, in North American consumer, is it possible to say how volumes or demand has trended quarter to date? And I think when you, you know, closed the combination, there was maybe a little bit of kind of wait and see in terms of evaluating maybe the kind of more attractive or less attractive parts of that business. I'm just curious if you can kind of share your impressions on the, you know, consumer box board business in North America, having-

Speaker Change: Very helpful.

Speaker Change: And then I am curious in North American consumer is it possible to say how volumes or demand has trended quarter to date and I think when you close the combination there was maybe a little bit of kind of wait and see in terms of evaluating maybe just kind of more attractive or less attractive parts of that bill.

Speaker Change: I'm just curious if you can kind of share your impressions on the consumer box board business in North America.

Tony Smurfit: Yeah.

Speaker Change: Having the business.

Anthony Pettinari: The business. Yeah.

Speaker Change: Yes.

Tony Smurfit: Yeah. It, Anthony, I, we're, we're now at a number of months now, and I would say, if you take the consumer converting businesses, I think we've got basically very good assets with very good people. We've got a couple of things to sort out, but, you know, nothing... We- legacy WestRock had done a great job of closing and consolidating a number of facilities, and I think that, you know, we've, we've... So that's- I think the converting side is good or excellent. I think our our CUK business has global market positionings, sells machines alongside its product, good mill, good market position. So again, I would say is excellent. And then our SBS business, we're a little bit long. Well, not a little bit.

Speaker Change: Anthony.

No.

Speaker Change: A number of months now and I would say if you take the consumer.

Speaker Change: Converting businesses.

Speaker Change: We've got basically very good assets with very good people, we've got a couple of things to sort out but.

Speaker Change: Sure.

Speaker Change: Legacy restaurants have done a great job of that.

Speaker Change: Hosing and consolidating a number of facilities and I think thats.

Speaker Change: We've.

Speaker Change: So I think the converting side is good or excellent.

Speaker Change: Our.

Speaker Change: Our C U K business has global market positioning sales machines alongside its product.

Speaker Change: Good mill.

Speaker Change: Good good market positions. So again I would say is excellent.

Speaker Change: And then our SBS business were a little bit long wells in a little bit we're not long on SBS, but we do see some opportunities there because.

Tony Smurfit: We're a lot long on SBS, but we do see some opportunities there because, you know, I think we need a little bit longer, but I do feel reasonably good about the opportunities in SBS at this moment. I might change my mind in three months, but at this moment, I feel reasonably good, and I think our team feel reasonably good about it. And then finally, you know, CRB, you know, that's clearly an area where the largest competitor in the market has taken a large capital investment plan to develop their business in that area, in CRB. And, you know, the legacy company did not. So we are still the number two player in the market, believe it or not. And their...

Speaker Change: I think we need a little bit longer but I do.

Speaker Change: Feel reasonably good about the opportunities in SBS at this moment I might change my mind in three months, but at this moment I feel reasonably good and I think our team feel reasonably good about it.

Speaker Change: And then finally.

Speaker Change: CRB.

Speaker Change: That's clearly an area where the large the largest competitor in the market has taken a.

Speaker Change: Large capital investment plan to develop their business in that area.

Speaker Change: And CRB.

Speaker Change: Sure.

Speaker Change: The legacy company did not so we are still the number two player in the market believe it or not.

Speaker Change: And.

Tony Smurfit: Our mills, while not great, are still supplying our own integration, and supplying good quality to our own integration. So that's good. But you know, what plan we come up with for that business depends on how the rest of the market evolves and how we see things evolving in the CRB market. But you know, we're a strong number two player in that business, and customers don't want to have a dominant number one player. So therefore, I think that you know, we have a strong market position to defend there, but we just need to come up with the right strategy for it.

Speaker Change: Our mills, while not great are still supplying our own integration.

Speaker Change: And supply and good quality to our own integration. So that's good.

Speaker Change: But what plan, we come up with.

Speaker Change: For that business depends on how the rest of the market evolved and how we see things evolving in the CRB market.

Speaker Change: But.

Speaker Change: We're a strong number two player in that business and customers don't want to have a.

Speaker Change: Dominant number one player. So therefore I think that.

Speaker Change: We have a strong market position to defend there, but we just need to come up with the right strategy for us.

Speaker Change: Okay.

Anthony Pettinari: Okay. That's, that's helpful. I'll turn it over.

Speaker Change: I'll turn it over.

Speaker Change: Thank you.

Tony Smurfit: Thank you, Anthony.

Speaker Change: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Mann from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker Change: We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Mann from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Patrick Mann: Thanks very much.

Patrick Mann: Thanks very much for the call and opportunity to ask the question. Maybe a bit of a follow-up from the prior one. I mean, you may, you, you're talking a lot about the back to basics approach and improving all the underlying operations, but if, if you kind of zoom out a little bit and think about the weighting of the business overall in terms of capacity and containerboard, consumer board, and converting, you know, if I think about the old Smurfit Kappa, you're, you're much more, much more long paper, for example. Are you happy with that overall weighting and the balance of the business? Or, you know, kind of structurally or strategically, is that how you want it to be set up? Yeah, maybe just a little bit around that.

Speaker Change: <unk> an opportunity to ask the question.

Patrick Mann: Maybe a bit of a follow up from the prior one.

Patrick Mann: You mean, you're talking a lot about the back to basics approach and improving all the underlying operations, but if you kind of zoom out a little bit and think about the weighting of the business overall in terms of capacity in containerboard consumer board and converting.

Speaker Change: If I think about the old Smurfit Kappa Youre you are much more much more long paper for example are you.

Speaker Change: Are you happy with that overall weighting and the balance of the business or kind.

Speaker Change: Kind of structurally or strategically is that how you want it to be set up.

Speaker Change: Yes, maybe just a little bit around that and then the second question would just be about.

Patrick Mann: And then the second question would just be about, you know, good cash generation in the quarter. How should we think about the net debt target, you know, going from 2.7 to under 2 over time? If you could talk about that. Thank you.

Speaker Change: Good cash generation in the quarter.

Speaker Change: How should we think about the net debt target.

Speaker Change: From the $2 seven under two over time.

Speaker Change: If you could talk about that thank you.

Tony Smurfit: That's great, Patrick. I'll take the first, and then Ken take the second. I mean, our philosophy as a company, you know, we were basically fully integrated in our containerboard grades in legacy Smurfit Kappa. And you know, that would be our intention, together with some long-term customers, which we have. And as a seller in the free market, Westrock as probably one of the biggest sellers in the free market, Westrock has a very good reputation. And you know, we have long-term relationships with some excellent customers that pay the correct price to the company. So we would value that.

Patrick Mann: That's great Patrick I'll take the first and I can take the second.

Patrick Mann: I mean, our philosophy as a company. We were we were basically fully integrated in some of our in our containerboard grades.

Speaker Change: Legacy Smurfit Kappa and.

Speaker Change: That would be our intention together with some long term customers, which we have in <unk>.

Speaker Change: Seller in the free market.

Speaker Change: The West rock.

Speaker Change: One of the biggest sellers in the free market Westwood has some very good reputation has a very good reputation.

Speaker Change: And we have long term relationships with some excellent customers that that's paying the correct price.

Speaker Change: The company, so we value that.

Tony Smurfit: And, if you, if you take those long-term customers, plus our integration, plus the synergies that we'll get through integration into our Latin American business, you know, we feel that, you know, in a not too distant future, we'll be basically balanced in our containerboard system. You know, we will not be ever balanced in our sack conversion system, 'cause we don't have very many sack conversions, and we do produce lightweight sack paper. And we do produce, and we are long in our consumer board grades, and that's something that, you know, I don't envisage us, you know, ever solving fully. But, you know, we just have to accept that we'll be a seller of those products and take the cyclicality of those particular products going forward.

Speaker Change: If you take those long term customers plus our integration plus the synergies that we'll get through integration into our Latin American business, we feel that.

Speaker Change: In the not too distant future, we will be basically balanced in our containerboard system.

Speaker Change: We will not be ever balance in our SaaS conversion system, because we don't have very many sack conversions and we do produce lightweight sack paper.

Speaker Change: And we do produce.

Speaker Change: And we are long in our consumer board grades and that's something that I don't envisage as ever solving fully.

Speaker Change: But we just have to accept that will be a.

Speaker Change: A seller of those products.

Speaker Change: And take the take the cyclicality of those particular products going forward, but they can be good or they can be bad at the moment I think they are reasonably good most of them.

Tony Smurfit: But, you know, they can be good or they can be bad. At the moment, I think they're reasonably good, most of them. But with regard to the core, the main piece of our business containerboard, you know, I would expect this to be with some outside customers, basically a balanced situation.

Speaker Change: And.

But with regard to the core the main piece of our business containerboard.

Speaker Change: I would expect us to be.

With some outside customers basically a balanced situation.

Speaker Change: Hey, Patrick on the leverage point to $2 75 to $2. Two I think we pointed out the long term targets through the cycle, but in reality.

Ken Bowles: Hey, Patrick, on the leverage point of 2.7, I'd like to 2.2, I think we pointed as a long-term target through the cycle, but in reality, you know, we're already kind of focused on beginning that journey as we would have done on the former Smurfit Kappa side, to kind of, you know, bring ourselves to a better place in terms of net leverage. I think it happens over a few things. I mean, clearly earnings potential of this organization should be ahead of where it is, and equally, if you look at where we are in this year, that suggests that the top line will certainly grow, which no doubt helps your leverage target overall. But I think within the business, we see some opportunities around working capital, in particular, to unlock value in the business.

Speaker Change: We were already kind of focus on beginning of that journey as we would've done on the former Smurfit Kappa site.

Speaker Change: To kind of bring us to a better place in terms of net leverage I think it happens over a few things.

Speaker Change: Clearly earnings potential of this organization should be ahead of where it isn't.

Speaker Change: Equity if you look at where we are in this year that suggests that the topline will certainly grow which helps.

Speaker Change: <unk> leverage target overall, but I think within the business, we see some opportunities around working capital in particular to unlock value in the business and I think as well to the capital cycle I think it's a very disciplined allocation, making the returns in the right place and by returns.

Ken Bowles: And I think as well, through the capital cycle. I think it's about disciplined allocation, making the returns in the right place, and by returns, that gives you the cash flows. I mean, in reality, I think the skill and expertise we've had in the past has been that allocated capital, driving returns and making those returns, if you like, pay for themselves through the capital cycle. So if you go back to Tony's kind of track record or delivery side, probably the clearest indication of how we see the journey forward for the next few years, which is, you know, incremental capital going into the business, both supporting the dividend and its progression, de-levering as a part of that, because you should be driving out more cash than you put in.

Speaker Change: That gives you the cash flows I mean in reality I think the scale and expertise we've had in the past has been.

Speaker Change: That allocated capital driving returns and making those returns if you like pay for themselves with the capital cycle. So if you go back to Tony's kind of track record of delivery size very curious indication of how we see the journey forward for the next few years, which is <unk>.

Speaker Change: Incremental capital going into the business, both supporting the dividend and its progression delevering as a part of that because you should be driving more cash and you put in an equally focusing on the commercial opportunity in growing both the top line, but most importantly, I think the margin. So it is a medium long term target, but I think we're already begin to look at the targeted actions that will take us towards that over there.

Ken Bowles: And equally, you know, focusing on the commercial opportunity and growing both the top line and, but most importantly, I think, the margin. So it is a medium, long-term target, but I think we're already beginning to look at the target actions that'll take us towards that, over the more near term in that sense. Particularly, I think, around where working capital sits.

Speaker Change: The more near term in that sense.

Speaker Change: I think around where working capital to it.

Speaker Change: Yes, thank you very much.

Tony Smurfit: Yeah.

Patrick Mann: Thank you very much.

Tony Smurfit: I think Ken, Ken is underselling the point. We, we believe we got some good working capital opportunities in the business, as we, as we go forward.

Speaker Change: I think Ken is on the selling point, we believe we got some good working capital opportunities in the business as we as we go forward.

Speaker Change: Thank you both.

Patrick Mann: Thank you, both.

Tony Smurfit: Thank you.

Speaker Change: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. We will take our next question, and your next question comes from the line of Matthew McKellar from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker Change: Thank you.

Speaker Change: We will take our next question and your next question comes from the line of Matthew Mckesson RBC Capital markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Matthew Mckesson: Good morning, Thanks for all the color so far and for taking my questions I'd like to start with just a follow up question on Sps you mentioned seeing some opportunities.

Matthew McKellar: Good morning. Thanks for all the colors so far, and for taking my questions. I'd like to start with just a follow-up question on SDS. You mentioned seeing some opportunities. I was wondering if you could just elaborate whether these are opportunities to sort of improve your own assets and operations or more related to developments in the markets? Any more color there would be helpful. Thank you.

Matthew Mckesson: I was wondering if you can just elaborate whether these are opportunities to sort of improve your own assets and operations are more related to developments in the market any more color there would be helpful. Thank you.

Anthony Pettinari: Yes, Matt.

Tony Smurfit: Yeah, Matt, I mean, you know, what I've seen so far is pretty good, I have to admit. But, you know, maybe the selling of the product isn't being 100% focused in the right direction, and so we think we've got some opportunities really in the whole through our own integration to sell, sell, sell a lot more as we go forward. So, I mean, that's really where we see the opportunity is in the marketplace, that we can be a little bit more aggressive is the wrong word, but let's say a little bit more subtle in how we deal with the market, which hasn't been done before.

Matthew Mckesson: Yes.

Speaker Change: What I've seen so far is pretty good I have to admit.

Speaker Change: But maybe the selling of the products isn't being 100% focused in the right direction and so we think we've got some opportunity is really in the whole.

Speaker Change: Through our own integration to sell sell sell a lot more as we as we go forward. So I mean, that's that's really where we see the opportunity is in the marketplace.

Speaker Change: We.

Speaker Change: Can be a little bit more.

Speaker Change: Aggressive is the wrong word, but let's say, it's a little bit more subtle and how we how we deal with the market, which hasnt been done before.

Speaker Change: Okay. Thanks, very much for that color just second for me.

Matthew McKellar: Okay. Thanks very much for that color. And just second for me, on LATAM, you kind of talked about continued progress and cost takeout, efficiency, optimization of your cost base, being a priority. Could you maybe just refresh us on your top focus items and most significant investments here, as well as more broadly, just what you're hoping to achieve in this region in 2025?

Speaker Change: In Latam you kind of talked about continued progress on cost take out efficiency optimization of your cost base being a priority could you maybe just refresh us on your top focus items in those significant investments here and it's always more broadly just what you are hoping to achieve in this region in 2025.

Tony Smurfit: Yeah, I mean, again, I would say the common is for all of our regions. It doesn't just fit in the LATAM region, but specifically in LATAM, you know, we have a large opportunity in Brazil. Got a very strong market position in that country with really great assets, with good cost takeout opportunities, which we've already been identifying and doing. And you know, a lot of progress to be made on the commercial side, too. You know, obviously, when looked at the margins of the legacy Smurfit business and the margins of the legacy WestRock business, you know, they were quite different.

Speaker Change: Yes, I mean again.

Speaker Change: I would say.

Speaker Change: The comment is for all of our regions.

Speaker Change: Just sit in the Latam region, but specifically in Latam, we have a large opportunity in Brazil, and a very strong market position.

Speaker Change: In that country.

Speaker Change: With really great assets with good cost take out opportunities, which we've already been identifying and doing.

Speaker Change: And a lot of progress to be made on the commercial side too.

Speaker Change: Obviously, when we looked at the margins of the legacy <unk> business and the margins of the legacy.

Speaker Change: West Rock business.

Speaker Change: They were quite different.

Tony Smurfit: So, you know, obviously, we're not going to the lower common denominator, we're going to the higher common denominator, and clearly, that gives us massive opportunity to improve the business there. So, you know, as Ken mentioned in his speech there, we do have issues in Argentina with regard to volume, but that's a country-specific issue. We have a fabulous business there. We're number two in the market. And, with the innovations that we bring to that particular region, you know, it's a very exciting region when the country stabilizes. That's always a risk you have, Matt, in those countries, that the countries tend to be a little bit more volatile.

Speaker Change: And so obviously, we're not going to the lower common denominator will go into the higher common denominator.

Speaker Change: Clearly that gives us massive opportunity.

Speaker Change: To improve the business there.

Speaker Change: So as Ken mentioned in his speech there we do have issues in Argentina with regard to volume with us as a country specific issue with a fabulous business. There were number two in the market.

Speaker Change: And with the innovations that we bring to that particular region.

Speaker Change: It's a very exciting region when the country stabilizes that's always a risk you have mass in those countries the countries tend to be a little bit more volatile.

Tony Smurfit: But at the same time, you know, when I see what-- even in January, when I see the results out of Brazil and how we've developed the business in just a short, such a short period of time, I think it's a huge opportunity for us to grow.

Speaker Change: But at the same time.

Speaker Change: When I see what even in January when I see the results out of Brazil, and how we develop the business in just a short such a short period of time.

Speaker Change: I think it's the.

Speaker Change: So huge opportunity for us to grow.

Speaker Change: Great. Thanks, so much for the help I'll turn it back.

Matthew McKellar: Great. Thanks so much for the help. I'll turn it back.

Tony Smurfit: Thanks, Matt.

Speaker Change: Thanks, Matt.

Operator: Thank you. In the interest of time, this concludes today's question and answer session. I'll now hand the conference back for closing remarks.

Speaker Change: Thank you in the interest of time. This concludes today's question and answer session I will now.

Speaker Change: I'll hand, the conference back for closing remarks.

Tony Smurfit: Yes, well, thank you, operator, and thank you all for your time and attention today. As I mentioned, our objective in Smurfit Westrock is, as we've said, to realize the considerable combined potential of the companies together. Again, we believe the opportunity is bigger and better than we first thought. Smurfit Westrock, I believe, is the right business at the right time, and most importantly, as I've said, on this call and as Ken has reiterated, with the right people to do the job. So thanks for your time. We appreciate you following the company, and look forward to chatting to you individually, going forward, very much. Take care and have a good rest of the day.

Yes, well thank you.

Speaker Change: Operator, and thank you all for your time and attention today.

Speaker Change: As I mentioned, our objective in Smurfit West Rock is as we've said to realize the considerable combined potential of the companies together again, we believe the opportunity is bigger and better than we first thought smurfit West rock I believe is the right business at the right time and most importantly, as I've said on this call.

Speaker Change: As Ken has reiterated with the right people to do the job. So thanks for your time.

Speaker Change: <unk> you following the company and look forward to chatting to you individually going forward very much take care and have a good rest of the day.

Speaker Change: This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation you may now disconnect.

Operator: This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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Q4 2024 Smurfit WestRock PLC Earnings Call

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