Q4 2024 Ardagh Metal Packaging SA Earnings Call

February 27, 2025

Yes.

Stephen Lyons: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Q4 2024 results call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Stephen Lyons, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker Change: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Argos metal packaging S. A fourth quarter 2024 results call. Today's conference is being recorded at this time I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Stephen Lang Investor Relations. Please go ahead Sir.

Stephen Lyons: Thank you, operator, and welcome, everybody. Thank you for joining today for Ardagh Metal Packaging's Q4 2024 earnings call.

Speaker Change: Thank you operator and welcome everybody. Thank you for joining today for origin in metal packaging fourth quarter 2024 earnings call, which follows the earlier publication of a M. P's earnings release for the fourth quarter and the full year.

Stephen Lyons: ... which follows the earlier publication of AMP's earnings release for the fourth quarter and the full year. I'm joined today by Oliver Graham, AMP's Chief Executive Officer, and Stefan Schellinger, AMP's Chief Financial Officer. Before moving to your questions, we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook. AMP's earnings release and related materials for the fourth quarter can be found on AMP's website at ir.ardametalpackaging.com. Remarks today will include certain forward-looking statements and include use of non-IFRS financial measures. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Please review the details of AMP's forward-looking statements disclaimer, and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to IFRS financial measures in AMP's earnings release. I will now turn the call over to Oliver Graham.

Big Ram: I'm joined today by all the Big Ram <unk>, Chief Executive Officer, and Stefan Schellinger, A&P as Chief Financial Officer.

Speaker Change: Before moving to your questions. We will first provide some introductory remarks right A&P perform in San Diego.

Big Ram: <unk> earnings release and related materials.

Big Ram: Quarter can be found on <unk> website at IR, Josh Alright metal packaging Dot com.

Big Ram: Remarks today will include certain forward looking statements include use of non <unk> financial measures.

Big Ram: Actual results could vary materially such statements. Please review the details of A&P as forward looking statements disclaimer and reconciliation of non <unk> financial measures to <unk> financial measures in Anp's earnings release.

Speaker Change: I will now turn the call over to other great.

Oliver Graham: Thanks, Stephen. So 2024 represented a successful year for our business, as we delivered a double-digit Adjusted EBITDA increase, underpinned by a 3% growth in global volumes. Our growth drove improved capacity utilization and fixed cost recovery, while the business achieved stronger input cost recovery than anticipated and delivered further operational cost improvements. Europe's Adjusted EBITDA performance was consistently strong, AMP demonstrating good volume growth as the industry recovered from customer destocking in the prior year. Our performance in the Americas was resilient, with a higher Adjusted EBITDA, despite temporary customer and filling location issues in Brazil, and softness in the energy category in North America. Our actions on liquidity and strong Adjusted EBITDA generation resulted in AMP ending the year with nearly $1 billion of liquidity and a reduced net leverage ratio of 4.9 times net debt to Adjusted EBITDA.

Steven: Thanks Steven.

Steven: So 2020 full represented a successful year for our business because we deliver double digit adjusted EBITDA increase underpinned by 3% growth in global volumes.

Steven: Oh growth drove improved capacity utilization and fixed cost recovery, while the business achieved strong group cost recoveries that anticipated and delivered further operational cost improvements.

Steven: Europe's adjusted EBITDA performance was consistently strong ANP demonstrating good volume growth as the industry recovers from customer destocking in the prior year.

Steven: Our performance in the Americas was resilient with a higher adjusted EBITDA, despite temporary customer sitting in vacation issues in Brazil and softness in the energy category in North America.

Steven: Our actions on liquidity and a strong adjusted EBITDA generation results in A&P and then the year with.

Steven: With nearly 1 billion of liquidity and a reduced net leverage ratio of four nine times net debt to adjusted EBITDA.

Oliver Graham: In the Q4, Adjusted EBITDA grew by 11% versus the prior year to $164 million. Our performance was positively impacted by higher than forecast sales volumes and production in Europe, with a particularly strong end to the quarter. Americas' performance was broadly in line with our expectations, supported by an encouraging improvement in monthly volumes through the quarter in Brazil, and strong operating cost performance in North America. Across our global footprint, the beverage can continues to gain share in our customers' packaging mix. While we're still in a challenging consumer environment, the advantages support our expectation for industry shipments growth into 2025, and we are encouraged by our start to the year.

Steven: In the fourth quarter, adjusted EBITDA grew by 11% versus the prior year to $164 million up.

Steven: Performance was positively impacted by higher than forecast sales volumes and production in Europe, with a particularly strong end to the quarter.

Steven: The Americas performance was broadly in line with our expectations supported by an encouraging improvement in monthly volumes through the culture in Brazil, and strong operating cost of the folks in North America.

Steven: Across our global footprint the beverage can continues to gain share in our customers' packaging mix.

Steven: Still in a challenging consumer environment.

Steven: As the poll, our expectation for industry shipments growth into 2025.

Steven: And we encouraged by our start to the year.

Oliver Graham: We're confident that we can drive further growth in Adjusted EBITDA in 2025 through increased shipments and further improvements to capacity utilization, as well as operational improvements, all of which more than offset some inflationary pressures and currency headwinds in Europe. We also made strong progress towards our sustainability agenda in the year, including the publication of our first roadmap report, highlighting how our Scope 3 emissions, which represent the majority of AMP's overall greenhouse gas emissions, fell below the 2030 target level in 2023, reflecting the successful implementation of our strategy and the overall industry's strong progress on decarbonization. We signed agreements for a solar project in Germany and a virtual power purchase agreement in Portugal, both of which significantly advanced our progress towards our renewable electricity targets.

Steven: Confident that we can drive further growth in adjusted EBITDA in 2020 guide to increased shipments. Some further improvements the capacity utilization as well as operational improvements all of which more than offset some inflationary pressures and currency headwinds in Europe.

Steven: We also made strong progress towards our sustainability agenda.

Steven: Including the publication of our first roadmap report highlighting how our scope three emissions.

Steven: The majority of Imtt's overall greenhouse gas emissions fell below the 2030 target level in 2003.

Steven: The successful implementation of our strategy and the overall industry is strong progress on decarbonization.

Steven: We signed agreements for a start of the project in Germany, and a virtual power purchase agreement and coach go both of which significantly advance our progress towards our renewable electricity targets and finally, we were delighted to report a reduction in both the overall total recordable incident rate and accident severity rates in 2024.

Oliver Graham: And finally, we were delighted to record a reduction in both our overall total recordable incident rate and accident severity rates in 2024, something that is critical for us. If I turn now to AMP's Q4 results by segment. In Europe, revenue increased by 27% to $552 million, or 22% on a constant currency basis compared with the same period in 2023, principally due to favorable volume mix effects and the pass-through of higher input costs to customers. Shipments grew by a strong 8% for the quarter ahead of expectations, with a particularly strong end to the quarter. For the year as a whole, shipments grew by over 4%, which represents an encouraging return to growth following customer destocking in the second half of 2023. Growth in the year was broad-based, both by category and by geography.

Steven: Critical for us.

Steven: Turning now to our NPS fourth quarter results by segment in Europe revenue increased by 27% stock $152 million or 22% on a constant currency basis compared to the same period in 2023.

Steven: Favorable volume mix effects in the posture of higher cost to customers shipped.

Steven: Shipments grew by a strong 8% for the quarter ahead of expectations with a particularly strong end to the quarter for the year as a whole shipments grew by over 4%, which represents an encouraging return to Greg Bolan.

Steven: Customer destocking in the second half of 2023.

Steven: Growth in the year was broad based.

Steven: By geography.

Oliver Graham: Customers continued to prioritize beverage can in their packaging mix, reflecting both the can's competitiveness and its sustainability advantages. We expect this to continue, as evidenced by customers' own investments in Europe's various sustainability regulations. Q4 Adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 81% to $56 million, or by 70% on a constant currency basis, due to positive volume growth and stronger input cost recovery. Our strong performance in 2024 and a positive early start to the year gives us confidence to project shipments growth of 3% to 4% for 2025. Capacity remains tight in the region, but the continued ramp-up of our more recently installed capacity supports this growth.

Steven: <unk> continued to prioritize beverage counting that packaging mix.

Steven: In both the cabinets competitiveness and sustainability advantages.

Steven: We expect this to continue as evidenced by customers their own investments and Europe's various sustainability regulations.

Steven: Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 81% to $56 million.

Steven: Well by 70% on a constant currency basis, due to positive volume growth and stronger input cost recovery.

Steven: Our strong performance in 2024, and a positive early start to the year gives us confidence to project shipments growth of Threep spoke set for 2025 capacity remains tight in the region, but the continued ramp up of buy more recently installed capacity to support this is Greg.

Oliver Graham: Turning to the Americas, revenue in the fourth quarter decreased by 7% to $653 million, which reflected unfavorable volume mix effects, partly offset by the passing of higher input costs to customers. Americas Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter decreased by 8% to $108 million due to lower volumes, principally due to the previously mentioned customer mix issue in Brazil, and the softness in the North America energy category, partly offset by lower operating costs. In North America, shipments declined by 2% for the quarter and grew by over 1 percent for the year. Fourth quarter decline in shipments was in line with our expectations and reflected temporary softness in the energy category, as well as a strong prior year comparable.

Steven: Turning to the Americas revenue in the fourth quarter decreased by 7% to $653 million.

Steven: Which reflected unfavorable volume mix effects, partly offset by the posture of higher input costs to customers.

Steven: Americas adjusted EBITDA for the quarter decreased by 8% to $108 million due to lower volumes principally due to the prime mentioned customer mix. This year in Brazil, and the softness in the North America energy category, partly offset by lower operating costs.

Steven: In North America shipments declined by 2% quarter and grew by 8% for the year.

Steven: The decline in shipments is in line with our expectations and reflected temporary softness in the energy category as well as the strong prior year comparable.

Oliver Graham: In both Q4 and across the year, we saw good growth in both carbonated soft drinks and sparkling waters, which combined represent circa 60% of our portfolio, as well as growth arising from share gains in mass beer, which represents only a small percentage of our North America portfolio. Our diverse portfolio in North America is heavily skewed towards faster growing non-alcoholic categories. Customer innovation continues to favor the beverage can, and the can continues to take share of the overall packaging mix. We've also seen some signs of stability in the energy category, which gives us confidence that our shipments can grow at least by low single digits in 2025. In Brazil, Q4 beverage can shipments decreased by 15%, which primarily reflected a specific customer mix filling location issue.

Steven: In both the fourth quarter and across the year, we saw a good growth in both carbonated soft drinks and sparkling waters, which combined represent circa 60% of our portfolio as well as growth arising from share gains in maspeth, which represents only a smoker.

Steven: North America portfolio.

Steven: Our diverse portfolio in North America is heavily skewed towards faster growing non alcoholic categories.

Steven: Innovation continues to pay for the beverage can in the can continues to take share of the overall packaging mix. We've also seen some signs of stability in the energy category, which gives us confidence that our shipments can grow at least by low single digits.

Steven: 1020 <unk>.

Steven: In Brazil, both go to beverage can shipments decreased by 15%, which primarily reflected a specific customer makes filling location issue.

Oliver Graham: We were encouraged by the improvement in monthly volumes towards the end of the quarter, and we would note that shipments excluding this customer grew by 7%. Full-year shipments were similarly affected by the specific customer issue, decreasing by 5%. The Brazilian beverage can industry also experienced lower growth in Q4, though with some improvement in December. As a result, the full-year growth percentage dropped into the mid- to high-single-digit range after the double-digit growth in the first part of the year. Balancing our overall positive outlook for the market and the broad strength of our customer portfolio, with some appropriate caution after the events of the second half of 2024, we're confident in at least a low single-digit percentage growth for our Brazilian business in 2025.

Steven: We were encouraged by the improvement in monthly volumes towards the end of the quarter and we would note the shipments excluding this customer grew by 7%.

Speaker Change: So what are your shipments so similarly affected by the specific customer ratio decreasing by 5%.

Speaker Change: The Brazilian beverage can industry also experienced slower growth in Q4, there were some improvements in December as a result of the full year growth percentage dropped into the mid to high single digit range up to the double digit growth in the first part of the year.

Speaker Change: Balancing our overall positive outlook for the market and the broad strength of our customer portfolio with some appropriate caution after the events of the second half of 2000, Tony Cool, we're confident in at least the low single digit percentage growth proposition business in 2025.

Oliver Graham: Therefore, between North America and Brazil, we also expect shipments growth in the Americas of at least a low single-digit percentage in 2025. I'll hand over to Stefan to talk you through some remarks on our financial position before finishing with some concluding remarks.

Speaker Change: And therefore between North America, and Brazil, We also expect shipments growth in the Americas of at least the low single digit percentage in 2000 tons.

Speaker Change: I'll hand over to step through some.

Speaker Change: And our financial position before finishing with some concluding remarks.

Stephen Lyons: Thanks, Ollie, and good morning. Good afternoon, everyone. We end the year with a robust liquidity position of close to $1 billion, in line with our expectation. That includes a seasonal working capital inflow in Q4. Net leverage at year-end stood at 4.9 net debt over Adjusted EBITDA, which represents a meaningful reduction compared to the prior year of 5.5 times. Our liquidity position benefited from the signing of an undrawn Brazilian credit facility in Q4 for around $80 million. We note that in addition to our strong liquidity position, we have no near-term bond maturities. As we have previously indicated, AMP's capital structure is structurally separate from Ardagh Group. AMP generated an adjusted free cash flow of $204 million in 2024, compared to $260 million in the prior year.

Stefan Schellinger: Thanks, Ollie, and good morning. Good afternoon, everyone. We end the year with a robust liquidity position of close to $1 billion, in line with our expectation. That includes a seasonal working capital inflow in Q4. Net leverage at year-end stood at 4.9 net debt over Adjusted EBITDA, which represents a meaningful reduction compared to the prior year of 5.5 times. Our liquidity position benefited from the signing of an undrawn Brazilian credit facility in Q4 for around $80 million. We note that in addition to our strong liquidity position, we have no near-term bond maturities. As we have previously indicated, AMP's capital structure is structurally separate from Ardagh Group. AMP generated an adjusted free cash flow of $204 million in 2024, compared to $260 million in the prior year.

Speaker Change: Thanks Ali and good morning, good afternoon, everyone.

Speaker Change: The year with a robust liquidity position of close to $1 billion in line with our expectation that includes the seasonal working capital inflow in the fourth quarter net leverage at year end stood at $4 nine net debt over adjusted EBITDA, which represents a meaningful reduction compared to the prior year of five five times.

Speaker Change: Our liquidity position benefited from the signing of an Undrawn Brazilian credit facility in Q4 for around $8 million.

We note that in addition to our strong liquidity position, we have no near term bond maturities.

Speaker Change: As we have previously indicated <unk> capital structure and structurally separate from others.

Speaker Change: A&P generated an adjusted free cash flow of $204 million in 2024 compared to $260 million in the prior year.

Stephen Lyons: The modest decrease was mainly driven by a lower working capital inflow, which was partly offset by a significant reduction in our growth investment CapEx. We expect a small outflow in working capital for the financial year 2025. Our growth investments in 2024 reduced to $68 million, and on the basis of current investment plans, we expect this to reduce slightly in 2025 to approximately $40 million. In terms of other cash flow items, we broadly expect the following for 2025: cash interest to increase to just over $200 million, less principal repayments of approximately $105 million, cash tax to increase to close to $50 million, given that previously available tax losses have been utilized and we expect fewer tax reimbursements in 2025.

Stefan Schellinger: The modest decrease was mainly driven by a lower working capital inflow, which was partly offset by a significant reduction in our growth investment CapEx. We expect a small outflow in working capital for the financial year 2025. Our growth investments in 2024 reduced to $68 million, and on the basis of current investment plans, we expect this to reduce slightly in 2025 to approximately $40 million. In terms of other cash flow items, we broadly expect the following for 2025: cash interest to increase to just over $200 million, less principal repayments of approximately $105 million, cash tax to increase to close to $50 million, given that previously available tax losses have been utilized and we expect fewer tax reimbursements in 2025.

Speaker Change: The modest decrease was mainly driven by lower working capital inflow, which was partly offset by a significant reduction in our growth investment capex.

Speaker Change: We expect a small outflow in working capital for the financial year 2025.

Speaker Change: Our growth investments in 2020 for reduced to $68 million and on the basis of current investment plans. We expect this to reduce slightly in 2025 to approximately $40 million.

Speaker Change: In terms of other cash flow items, we broadly expect the calling for 175.

Speaker Change: Cash interest to increase suggest electronic million lease principal repayments of our practice of approximately $105 million.

Speaker Change: Capex to increase to close to $50 million given that previously available tax losses have been utilized and we expect fewer tax rate being in 2025.

Stephen Lyons: Maintenance CapEx of around $135 million, and small exceptional cash outflows in the order of $ high single-digit millions. We have today announced our quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share, to be paid late in March, in line with guidance and supported by our robust closing liquidity position. There's no change to our capital allocation policy. With that, I'll hand it back to Ollie.

Stefan Schellinger: Maintenance CapEx of around $135 million, and small exceptional cash outflows in the order of $ high single-digit millions. We have today announced our quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share, to be paid late in March, in line with guidance and supported by our robust closing liquidity position. There's no change to our capital allocation policy. With that, I'll hand it back to Ollie.

Speaker Change: Maintenance capex of around $135 million and small exceptional cash outflows in the order of high single digit millions.

Speaker Change: We have today announced a quarterly ordinary dividend of <unk> 10 per share to be paid later in March in line with guidance and support of all our robust closing liquidity position. There is no change to our capital allocation policy.

Ali: With that I'll hand, it back to Ali.

Oliver Graham: Thanks, Stefan. So just recapping on our performance and key messages before the Q&A. Adjusted EBITDA growth in the fourth quarter of 11% was ahead of expectations. This was driven by a strong performance in Europe, and that was a consistent feature through the year. Full year adjusted EBITDA of $672 million was strongly ahead of our initially projected $630 to $660 million range, and this was despite softness in the North American energy category and our customer mix, filling location issue in Brazil, both of which have shown recent improvement. Our actions on liquidity and strong cash flow performance resulted in a robust year-end liquidity position of nearly $1 billion.

Ali: Thanks, Kevin so.

Ali: So just recapping on our performance and key messages before the Q&A adjusted EBITDA growth in the fourth quarter of 11% was ahead of expectations. This was driven by a strong performance in Europe and that was a consistent feature through the year.

Ali: Our adjusted <unk> of $672 million of strongly ahead of our initially projected $630 to $260 million range and this was despite softness in the North American energy category in that customer makes filling location. This year in Brazil, both of which have shown recent improvement.

Ali: And our actions on liquidity and strong cash flow performance resulted in a robust year end liquidity position of nearly $1 billion.

Oliver Graham: Our current view of the market leads us to project global shipment growth for AMP in 2025 in a range of 2% to 3%, and full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $675 to 695 million. Our EBITDA guidance is supported by higher shipments and improved fixed cost absorption, partly offset by some inflationary pressures in Europe and currency headwinds. Based on prevailing rates, FX represents a circa $9 million headwind versus the prior year. In terms of guidance for Q1, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of between $140 and 145 million, ahead of the prior year of $132 million on a constant currency basis. So having made these opening remarks, we'll now proceed to any questions.

Ali: Our current view of the market leaves us to predict global shipment growth for A&P and <unk> 25 in a range of 2% to 3% and full year 2025, adjusted EBITDA in the range of $675 million to $695 million.

Ali: Our EBITDA guidance is supported by higher shipments and improved fixed cost absorption, partially offset by some inflationary pressures in Europe and currency headwinds.

Ali: Based on prevailing rates FX represents a second $9 million headwind versus the prior year.

Ali: In terms of guidance for the first quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of between 140 and $145 million ahead of the prior year of $132 million on a constant currency basis.

Ali: We made these opening remarks, we will now proceed with any questions.

Stephen Lyons: Ladies and gentlemen, if you are dialed in via the telephone and would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star one to ask a question. We will pause for just a moment to allow everyone the opportunity to signal for a question. Our first question comes from Stefan Diaz with Morgan Stanley.

And ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like and dialed in via the telephone and they would like to ask a question. Please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you use the speaker phone. Please make sure. Your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our question our equipment.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, if you are dialed in via the telephone and would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star one to ask a question. We will pause for just a moment to allow everyone the opportunity to signal for a question. Our first question comes from Stefan Diaz with Morgan Stanley.

Ali: Press Star one to ask a question.

Ali: We'll pause for just a moment to allow everyone the opportunity to second part question.

Stefan: Our first question comes from Stefan <unk>.

Speaker Change: With Morgan Stanley.

Stefan Diaz: Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So maybe my first one is on tariffs. So obviously, you know, LME and the associated premium is a pass-through for you all. But can you provide additional details on how you're thinking about the potential implications on demand?

Stefan <unk>: Hi, good morning, Thanks for taking my question.

Stefan <unk>: So maybe my first one is on tariffs. So obviously, let me and and the associated premium is a pass through for you all.

Stefan <unk>: But can you provide additional details on how you're thinking about the potential implications on demand.

Oliver Graham: ... Sure. Yeah, hi, Stefan. So I think we're very consistent with the other commentary that you've seen in the market in the last week or two. So, you know, the first thing to say, I think, is that we see a relatively small impact on the total retail price of the can, certainly less than $0.01. And therefore, you know, that's if it's all passed on to the consumer, which, you know, given the amount of inflation we've seen in the, in can pricing in the US in the last few years is a, is a relatively small number. We do see that in 2025, a lot of this should have been hedged, and therefore, there should be, you know, less impact in 2025. And as you say, from our perspective, it's pretty much a pass-through in any case.

Stefan <unk>: Sure Yes.

Stefan <unk>: We're very consistent with the other commentary that you've seen in the market in the last week or two so.

Stefan <unk>: The first thing to say I think as the.

Stefan <unk>: We see a relatively small impact on the total retail price that they can certainly less than one.

Stefan <unk>: And therefore, that's a it's all passed onto the consumer.

Stefan <unk>: Which you know given the amount of inflation, we've seen in the in cabin pricing in the U S. In the last few years is a relatively small number.

Stefan <unk>: We do see that.

Stefan <unk>: In 2025, a lot of this should have been hedged and therefore, there should be less impact in 2025, and as you say from our perspective, it's pretty much a pass through in any case.

Oliver Graham: You know, so in terms of our numbers, it, it's not touching them. So I've seen commentary saying maybe there's some indirect impact on demand. You know, I guess that could be true, but, you know, I have to admit, from our perspective, we regard that as a pretty marginal impact.

Stefan <unk>: So in terms of our numbers, it's not touching them. So I've seen commentary, saying, maybe there are some indirect impact on demand I guess that could be true but.

Stefan <unk>: From our perspective, we were we regard that as a pretty margin impact.

Stefan Diaz: Perfect. Thanks, thanks for the color. And then, maybe if you could dig into your, Americas results a little bit. You know, obviously, you called out, the customer specific headwind in Brazil and some energy weakness, in North America. Maybe how are those headwinds sort of shaping out in the quarter so far in 2025? And, you know, do you expect those headwinds to resolve, quickly here, in 2025 as well? Thank you.

Speaker Change: Perfect. Thanks, Thanks for the color and then maybe if you could dig into your Americas results a little bit odd.

Stefan <unk>: Obviously, you called out.

Stefan <unk>: The customers specific headwind in Brazil, and some energy weakness.

Stefan <unk>: In North America.

Stefan <unk>: And maybe how are those headwinds sort of shaping out in the quarter, So far in 2025 and.

Stefan <unk>: Do you expect those headwinds to resolve quickly.

Stefan <unk>: Quickly here.

Stefan <unk>: And 2025 as well thank you.

Stefan <unk>: Okay.

Oliver Graham: No, yeah, good question. So look, I think, on the Brazil side, we mentioned it in the remarks, but we already saw improvement in Q4. So in December, we already saw a good recovery in those volumes, and that, recovery has persisted into January and February. So I think we're very encouraged by the way that situation, has resolved at the moment, and would hope that would continue through this year. And then similarly, on the energy category in North America, there was clearly improvement towards the end of the year. I think we suffered a bit more than the total market in our mix, from what we can see, because actually, we could see some improvement on the retail data on the energy category already in Q4.

Stefan <unk>: No yet.

Stefan <unk>: Good question, So look I think.

Stefan <unk>: Bill side, we mentioned it in the remarks, but we already saw improvement in Q4. So in December we're already good. So a good recovery in those volumes and that recovery is persistent into January and February. So I think we're very encouraged by the way that situation is resolved at the moment.

Stefan <unk>: And one would hope that would continue through this year and then similarly on the energy category in North America that was clearly improvement towards the end of the year I think we suffered a bit more than the total market in our mix from what we can see because.

Stefan <unk>: We could see some improvement on the retail data on the energy category already in Q4, and we do see that numbers as we go into Q1 that there is recovery in the energy category. So I think.

Oliver Graham: We do see that in our numbers as we go into Q1, that there is recovery in the energy category. So I think, you know, we're hopeful for 2025 that both those issues have worked their way through.

Stefan <unk>: Hopeful that both those issues have worked their way through.

Stefan Diaz: Great. Thank you so much. I'll turn it over.

Stefan <unk>: Great. Thank you so much I'll turn it over.

Oliver Graham: Thanks, Stefan.

Stefan <unk>: Thanks, and our next.

Stephen Lyons: Our next question comes from Josh Spector with UBS.

Speaker Change: And our next question comes from Josh Spector with UBS.

Joshua Spector: Yeah. Hi, good morning, guys. I wanted to ask on your forecast around growth. I think when you're talking about the US specifically, you said low single-digit percent, but you said you could potentially, I think you said minimum of low single-digit percent. Sorry. So curious if there's areas where you had more optimism or visibility now, or if that was maybe I'm reading into that too much.

Josh Spector: Yeah. Hi, good morning, guys. I wanted to ask on your forecast around growth. I think when you're talking about the US specifically, you said low single-digit percent, but you said you could potentially, I think you said minimum of low single-digit percent. Sorry. So curious if there's areas where you had more optimism or visibility now, or if that was maybe I'm reading into that too much.

Josh Spector: Yeah, Hi, good morning, guys.

Josh Spector: Want to ask on your forecast around growth I think when you're talking about the U S. Specifically, you said low single digit percent, but you said you could potentially I think you said minimum of low single digit percent sorry. So curious if there is areas, where you had more optimism or visibility now.

Josh Spector: Or if that was maybe I'm reading into that too much.

Oliver Graham: No, I don't think you're reading too much. I mean, I think that, you know, this energy category piece is a key part. So, obviously, we're feeling positive about that with what we're seeing at the beginning of the year. I think we're seeing strength in other parts of the portfolio, carbonated soft drinks, alcoholic cocktails. So you know, we still remain, you know, positive about the North American beverage can market. And I think if you go back 5 years and you look at average growth, it's in that, you know, 2% range on average. Obviously, it went up a lot and bumped along a bit, as, you know, we'd sort of overgrown in the first part of that period, but we didn't lose that growth.

Josh Spector: No. It doesn't mean, you're reading too much I mean, I think that.

Josh Spector: This energy category pieces is a key part so obviously we're feeling.

Josh Spector: Positive about that with what we're seeing at the beginning of the year.

Josh Spector: I think we're seeing strength in other parts of the portfolio carbonated soft drinks I'll call. It cocktails.

Josh Spector: So we still remain and are positive about the north American beverage can market and I think if you. If you go back five years and you look at average growth that's in that 2% range on average obviously went up a lot and bumped along a bit as you know.

Josh Spector: With sort of very good growth in the first part of that period, but we didn't lose that growth and the drivers of that growth that we saw from 2018 2019 onwards, which is the sustainability piece with some reduction in the focus on plastics and the innovation that's still in place. Although it is a little bit of commentary around now with tariffs.

Oliver Graham: The drivers of that growth that we saw from 2018, 2019 onwards, which is the sustainability piece with, you know, some reduction in the focus on plastics and the innovation, they're still in place. Although there's a little bit of commentary around now with tariffs and other market remarks about plastics, we think that, you know, there's still a drive towards not over-investing and over-prioritizing plastics relative to cans. And that's all we need because, you know, when the American, North American can market was flat, it was because PET was growing at the expense of cans by, you know, 3% a year. We were down. That's no longer true. And we see that actually, again, CSD is in positive growth at the beginning of this year.

Josh Spector: Another market.

Josh Spector: Remarks about plastics, we think that.

Josh Spector: There's still a drive towards not over investing over prioritizing plastics relative to Ken and that's what we need because.

Josh Spector: The American North American can market was flat is because.

Josh Spector: It was growing at the expense of <unk>, 3% a year, we were down that's no longer true and we see that actually again CSD is in positive growth at the beginning of this year.

Oliver Graham: You know, I think at low single digits for the market is a very realistic number. We think we've got aspects of our portfolio that mean we could be a tick ahead of that, but we're not calling that by a huge amount, but we're certainly positive about North America for this year.

Josh Spector: I think low single digits for the market is a very realistic number we think we've got aspects of our portfolio that means we could be a tick ahead of that but.

Josh Spector: But we're not calling that by a huge amount, but certainly positive about north America for this year.

Joshua Spector: Thanks. And somewhat related, I guess, on the energy category specifically, there's been some recent M&A in this space, and I don't know if you could just characterize, are some of those changes good or bad for you? Does that increase your share with some existing customers and pull volumes in, or is there a risk of some diversification from that?

Josh Spector: Thanks. And somewhat related, I guess, on the energy category specifically, there's been some recent M&A in this space, and I don't know if you could just characterize, are some of those changes good or bad for you? Does that increase your share with some existing customers and pull volumes in, or is there a risk of some diversification from that?

Josh Spector: And somewhat related I guess on the energy category, specifically, there's been some recent M&A.

Josh Spector: In this space and I don't know if you could just characterize.

Josh Spector: Some of those changes good or bad for you does that increase your share with some existing customers and pull volumes in or is there a risk some diversification from that.

Oliver Graham: Yeah, we don't see any risk. You know, they're both good market players. We obviously have relationships with many people in the energy space. It's a strong space for us, so we don't see any risk to us from that, nor do we see any particular upside from it at this point. We don't know. Yeah, look, it looks like a good deal, both strong brands, and I'm sure they'll do very well.

Josh Spector: Yes, we don't see any risk.

Josh Spector: They're both good market players I mean, we obviously have relationships.

Josh Spector: With many people in the energy space, It's a strong space for us. So we don't see any risk to us from that.

Josh Spector: Nor do we see any particular upside.

Josh Spector: From it at this point, we don't know.

Josh Spector: But so yes, okay. It looks like a good deal both strong brands.

Josh Spector: And I'm sure they'll do very well.

Joshua Spector: Okay, thank you.

Josh Spector: Okay, thank you.

Josh Spector: Okay. Thank you.

Oliver Graham: Thanks.

Josh Spector: Thanks.

Stephen Lyons: Our next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

Speaker Change: And our next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

Operator: Our next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

Anthony Pettinari: Good morning. Looking at your 25 outlook, you know, assuming you achieve your volume growth targets, is it possible to say kind of where that would leave your utilization rates in North America and Europe? And then maybe more broadly, if you could comment on sort of how industry supply-demand sort of feels in those two regions, if it is, you know, tight, loose, balanced, tight, sort of characterize it?

Anthony Pettinari: Hi, good morning.

Anthony Pettinari: Looking at your twenty-five outlook, assuming you achieve your volume growth targets is it possible to say kind of where that would leave leave your utilization rates in North America, and Europe, and then maybe more broadly if you could comment on sort of how industry supply demand.

Anthony Pettinari: It sort of feels in those two regions if it is.

Anthony Pettinari: Tight loose balanced tight sort of characterize it.

Oliver Graham: Sure, Anthony. So yeah, North America, I think we still have some, you know, fairly permanently curtailed capacity in North America, so I think we'll be running in the mid-90s. It feels pretty tight at the moment, to be honest. And I think the market overall is relatively balanced with the sorts of actions that we're taking, also being taken by other market participants. So I think the industry probably is in the low 90s, relatively naturally, and then into the mid and even high 90s with those types of curtailment. And as I said, at the minute, for us, the market, you know, feels quite tight. I think if we look at commercial activity, there's clearly capacity around, but we're not seeing anything that concerns us too much. So I think North America is in a reasonable place.

Anthony Pettinari: Sure thing.

Anthony Pettinari: So North America, we still have some in a fairly permanent and he can tell them.

Anthony Pettinari: Capacity in North America, So I think we will be running in the mid nineties.

Anthony Pettinari: It was pretty tight at the moment to be honest.

Anthony Pettinari: And I think the market overall is relatively balanced with the sorts of actions that we're taking also being taken by the market participant. So I think the industry probably is in the low nineties relatively naturally and then into the mid and even high nineties.

Anthony Pettinari: Types of curtailment.

Anthony Pettinari: As I said a minute for us.

Anthony Pettinari: <unk> quite tight I think if we look at commercial activity that clearly capacity around but we're not seeing anything that concerns us too much. So I think north America in a reasonable place in Europe.

Oliver Graham: And Europe, you know, feels pretty tight as well and did all through last year, particularly continental Europe. I think there's more capacity in the UK, but on the continent, through the whole year, we had regional shortages. We had shortages on certain sizes, particularly specialty. And we don't see that changing much into this year because, you know, we've seen that other players, you know, we're ramp-- we're all ramping some of the legacy capacity that we've already put in, but we're not seeing particularly new capacity coming to market, so, you know, apart from those ramp-ups. So with the growth that we're seeing, and again, the first two months have been strong in Europe, we think that that market's gonna feel pretty tight through the year. And Brazil, yeah, I think there's, there's capacity around.

Anthony Pettinari: It feels pretty tight as well and did all through last year, particularly continental Europe, I think there's more capacity in the U K, but on the continent through the whole year, we had regional shortages, we had shortages on certain sizes, particularly specialty.

Anthony Pettinari: And we don't see that changing much into this year, because we've seen that.

Anthony Pettinari: The players were ramped we're all ramping some of the legacy capacity that we've already put in but we're not seeing particularly new capacity coming to market. So.

Anthony Pettinari: Apart from nice ramp up so with the growth that we're seeing.

Anthony Pettinari: And again, the first two months of being strong in Europe.

Anthony Pettinari: That market is going to feel pretty tight through the year.

Anthony Pettinari: In Brazil, yet.

Anthony Pettinari: I think there's capacity around again, it's being curtailed.

Oliver Graham: Again, it's being curtailed pretty strongly in certain places, including by us in the Northeast. And with that, I think the market's, you know, relatively balanced, sort of probably in the 90% area. And again, we actually had shortages last year in certain locations and sizes. Because Brazil is such a big country, you can get that kind of effect. So overall, if we look across our business, it feels like all three markets are in a decent place.

Anthony Pettinari: Strong means certain places, including by us in the northeast.

Anthony Pettinari: And with that I think the markets.

Anthony Pettinari: The balance sort of probably in the 90 <unk>.

Anthony Pettinari: <unk> area and again, we actually had shortages last year and stuff.

Anthony Pettinari: Locations and size it because Brazil is such a big country you can get.

Anthony Pettinari: Dot com perfect. So overall, if we look across our business. It feels like all three markets are in a decent place.

Anthony Pettinari: Okay, that's very helpful. And then just on Europe, I'm curious on glass-to-metal substitution. You know, given the strength that you and others have had in Europe, is that something that is accelerating? Are there specific product categories or geographies where you're really seeing a shift into cans? And is it, you know, I don't know, cost of living crisis or maybe change in consumer taste? I'm just wondering if that's really changed or accelerated or there's anything you'd kind of pinpoint on glass to metal substitution in Europe specifically.

Anthony Pettinari: Okay. That's very helpful. And then just on Europe, I'm curious on glass to metal substitution.

Anthony Pettinari: Given the strength that you and others have had in Europe.

Anthony Pettinari: That is something that is accelerating or there are specific product categories or geographies, where you're really seeing.

Speaker Change: A shift into cans.

Anthony Pettinari: And is it.

Anthony Pettinari: Cost of living crisis, or maybe change in consumer taste I'm just wondering.

Anthony Pettinari: If that's really changed or accelerated or theres any.

Anthony Pettinari: You can kind of pinpoint on glass metal substitution in Europe, specifically.

Oliver Graham: Sure. Yeah, look, I think there's a long-term glass to metal substitution in Europe, as we've seen two-way bottle systems declining and one-way packaging increasing and the can taking share. So, you know, if you look at the growth in Germany after the can was reduced to very low share in the early 1990s, and 2000s, you know, that recovery is significantly about glass substitution as well as plastic substitution. And then I think the piece that's given that some extra impetus in the last couple of years is the price of energy, obviously much more significant in glass than in metal. And so that has meant, you know, some competitive differential between the two substrates. And that was mitigating, I think, in the second half of last year, but now energy prices are strengthening slightly.

Anthony Pettinari: Sure look I think there's a long term glass to metal substitution in Europe.

Anthony Pettinari: As we've seen two way.

Anthony Pettinari: Systems declining in one way packaging increasing in the can taking share. So if you look at the growth in Germany. After the Ken was reduced to very low share in the early nineties.

Anthony Pettinari: And two thousands that recovery is significantly about substitution as well as plastic substitution and then I think the piece thats given that some extra impetus in the last couple of years as the price of energy, obviously much more significant in the metal and so that has been.

Anthony Pettinari: Some competitive differential between the two substrates and that was mitigating I think in the second half of last year, but now energy prices a strengthening slightly.

Oliver Graham: Not a huge amount, but they, they've not continued to come down in the last few months. And so I think the can does continue to maintain some competitiveness advantage off the back of that. And actually, if you look at our - the way our PPI rates are running in Europe, which are negative, so pass through on the can is, is really low at the moment in terms of price pass through to customers. The can is remaining very competitive in the mix, I think. So that with the sustainability advantages, there's a very clear roadmap for the can to decarbonize, which again, much harder than other substrates. I think that's driving, driving the pack mix share, that the gains that we're seeing. And, and that was very consistent through the year, and we would anticipate that continuing through 25 and beyond.

Anthony Pettinari: Huge amount, but they have not continued to come down in the last few months and so I think the cash flows continued to maintain some competitiveness advantage off the back of that and actually if you look at our the way our PPI rates are running in Europe, which are negative. So posture on Mccann is really low at the moment in terms of price cost to reach customers.

Anthony Pettinari: The Canada is remaining very competitive in the mix I think so that with the sustainability advantages.

Anthony Pettinari: Very clear.

Anthony Pettinari: Clear roadmap for the can decarbonize, which get much.

Anthony Pettinari: Other substrates, so I think thats driving.

Anthony Pettinari: Driving the patent make sure that the gains that we're seeing and that was very consistent through the year.

Anthony Pettinari: We would anticipate that continuing $3 25 and beyond.

Anthony Pettinari: Okay. That, that's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

Anthony Pettinari: Okay. That's very helpful I'll turn it over.

Oliver Graham: Thanks, Anthony.

Speaker Change: Thanks Anthony.

Stephen Lyons: Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

Speaker Change: And our next question comes from program. This one nothing with RBC capital markets.

Stephen Lyons: Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

Arun Viswanathan: Great. Thanks for taking my question. I guess, so maybe I'll ask about North American demand. Maybe you can just run through some of the categories. We've, you know, obviously seen some weakness in beer. Do you expect that to persist and maybe, potentially even get worse in the threat of Mexican tariffs? And then, what about energy and non-alcoholic as you see it evolving over the next year? Thanks.

Great. Thanks for taking my question I.

Speaker Change: I guess stuff.

Speaker Change: No I mean, maybe I'll ask about North American demand.

Speaker Change: Maybe you can just run through some of the categories. We've obviously seen some weakness in beer.

Speaker Change: That to persist and maybe potentially even get worse and the threat of Mexican tariffs and then.

Speaker Change: What about energy and.

Speaker Change: Nonalcoholic as you see it evolving over the next year. Thanks.

Oliver Graham: Sure. So I think I mentioned that I think carbonated soft drinks have started the year strong. We do anticipate growth like we saw last year, and if you look at the Nielsen data into the back end of the year, you certainly saw some strengthening in carbonated soft drink growth in cans, and that seems to be the way the year has started out. So we feel positive about that. Energy, I touched on. I think there will be a recovery this year relative to last year, which is, you know, in a way, the category took a bit of a breath last year. There'd been a lot of innovation, 2021 to 2023, alcohol innovation, other products, coffee-based, replacements.

Speaker Change: Sure.

Speaker Change: So I think I mentioned that I think carbonated soft drinks have started the year strong.

Speaker Change: We do anticipate growth like we saw last year and if you look at the Nielsen data into the back end of the year.

Speaker Change: You certainly saw some strengthening in carbonated soft drink growth in cans.

Speaker Change: And that seems to be the way the year has started out so we feel positive about that.

Speaker Change: LNG I touched on I think there will be recovery this year relative to last year, which is in a way the category took a bit of a breath last year, there's been a lot of innovation 'twenty one to 'twenty three I'll call. It innovation other products coffee based.

Speaker Change: Replacement, so I think the.

Oliver Graham: So I think that, you know, 2024 was sort of the year when some of that growth came off after some strong years. But 2025, I think the market participants have got that back in order and will be driving growth, and some of that destocking we saw also, as they moved into different distribution systems, is also finished. So we'd be feeling good about the energy category for this year. I talked about alcoholic cocktails. I think that's a good space. There's definitely growth in there, and we're seeing that in our portfolio. And then, yeah, mass beer, I think, continues to be somewhat challenged, but actually, Mexican tariffs, depending if they're on filled goods, could be a positive for domestic production and domestic supply.

Speaker Change: 24 was sort of the year when some of that growth came off after some strong is the 25 I think.

Speaker Change: Market participants have got that back in order and we'll be driving growth.

Speaker Change: Some of that Destocking, we saw also.

Speaker Change: As they maintenance different distribution systems is also is also finished so we'd be feeling good about the energy category for this year.

Speaker Change: I talked about I'll.

Speaker Change: Call. It <unk> I think that's a good space there is definitely growth in that.

Speaker Change: We're seeing that.

Speaker Change: And our portfolio.

And then yes master Bayer I think continues to be somewhat challenged Apache Mexican tariffs, depending if they are until goods could be a positive.

Speaker Change: For domestic production and domestic supply and but it's a relatively small part of our portfolio is clearly the weak apart. If you look at the market data for last year.

Oliver Graham: But we're, you know, it's a relatively small part of our portfolio. It's clearly the weaker part. If you look at the market data for last year, you know, that clearly is the weaker part of the portfolio. And then another one I'd call out is sparkling waters. Had a very strong last year, last year. We were strong with them, and again, that looks like that's persisting into 2025.

Speaker Change: That clearly is the weaker part of the portfolio and then another one on sparkling water has had a very strong enough.

Speaker Change: Last year, we were strong with them and again that looks like that specifically into 2025.

Gabe Hajde: Okay, thanks for that. And then just maybe I can ask about free cash flow and just maybe you can give me a walk from $685 EBITDA and some of the offsets to that, whether it be CapEx, working capital, cash tax, and so on. And then and so how much you expect for free cash flow in 2025, and then how you expect to use that? Thanks.

Arun Viswanathan: Okay, thanks for that. And then just maybe I can ask about free cash flow and just maybe you can give me a walk from $685 EBITDA and some of the offsets to that, whether it be CapEx, working capital, cash tax, and so on. And then and so how much you expect for free cash flow in 2025, and then how you expect to use that? Thanks.

Speaker Change: Okay. Thanks for that and then just maybe I can ask about free cash flow and just maybe you can give me a walk from including five EBITDA.

And some of the offsets to that whether it be.

Speaker Change: Capex and working capital cash tax and so on.

Speaker Change: And then so how much do you expect for free cash flow in 'twenty five and then how you expect to use that.

Stephen Lyons: Yeah, okay. So basically, you know, we printed adjusted free cash flow of $204 million, sort of starting sort of with the EBITDA of $672 million. We had a small inflow in terms of working capital of around $40 million. We spent around $111 million on maintenance CapEx, and then lease repayment of $97 million, and then we had exceptional restructuring cost of $23 million. And then, you know, we get further down into the capital structure; we're talking 2024 now, we're at $189 million of interest paid and $28 million cash taxes. So how does this compare now, you know, to our 2025 number? So basically, I gave a little bit of guidance on what to expect. I mean, you've seen our guidance range in terms of EBITDA, $675 million to $695 million.

Stefan Schellinger: Yeah, okay. So basically, you know, we printed adjusted free cash flow of $204 million, sort of starting sort of with the EBITDA of $672 million. We had a small inflow in terms of working capital of around $40 million. We spent around $111 million on maintenance CapEx, and then lease repayment of $97 million, and then we had exceptional restructuring cost of $23 million. And then, you know, we get further down into the capital structure; we're talking 2024 now, we're at $189 million of interest paid and $28 million cash taxes. So how does this compare now, you know, to our 2025 number? So basically, I gave a little bit of guidance on what to expect. I mean, you've seen our guidance range in terms of EBITDA, $675 million to $695 million.

Speaker Change: Okay. So basically.

Speaker Change: We printed adjusted free cash flow of 204 million sort of starting sort of with the EBITDA of 670, <unk>. We had a small inflow in terms of working capital of around 40 spend around 111 on maintenance Capex and then lease repayment of 97, and then we had exceptional restructuring cost of <unk>.

Speaker Change: Sorry.

Speaker Change: And then we get further down into the into the capital structure I'm talking 24, now we had 189.

Speaker Change: Of interest paid and 28 cash taxes. So how does this compare now.

Speaker Change: Now to our two.

Speaker Change: 2025 number so basically I gave a little bit of guidance on what to expect I mean, you've seen our guidance range in terms of EBITDA, 675% to six slide five of the key changes probably in terms of the cash flow items on the working capital.

Stephen Lyons: So the key changes probably in terms of the cash flow items are on the working capital. You know, we expect a small outflow in 2025. In terms of maintenance CapEx, we expect to invest more. Some of it is clearly driving productivity, some of that is investments in quality and also sustainability, so we expect around 130-ish. And then in terms of growth CapEx, we spent 68 in 2024. This will be reduced to around the $50 million level. Tax will go up a little bit to $50 million as a result of NOLs having been used.

Stefan Schellinger: So the key changes probably in terms of the cash flow items are on the working capital. You know, we expect a small outflow in 2025. In terms of maintenance CapEx, we expect to invest more. Some of it is clearly driving productivity, some of that is investments in quality and also sustainability, so we expect around 130-ish. And then in terms of growth CapEx, we spent 68 in 2024. This will be reduced to around the $50 million level. Tax will go up a little bit to $50 million as a result of NOLs having been used.

Speaker Change: We expect a small outflow in 2025 in terms of maintenance Capex, we expect to invest more.

Speaker Change: That is clearly driving productivity some of that is investment.

Speaker Change: And quality and all sustainability, so we expect around 130 ish.

Speaker Change: And then in terms of growth Capex, we spent 68 in two.

Speaker Change: <unk> 24, this will be reduced to around a 50 $50 million level tax will go up a little bit to 50 million as a result of Nols, having been used and then also the cash interest will go up to two five as a result of new facilities sort of.

Stephen Lyons: And then also the cash interest will go up to $205 million as a result of new facilities we entered into last year. And then also the lease repayments will go up a little bit to $205 million given that the new leases are sort of reaching their full run rate. We expect very little exceptionals. We've been through our restructuring, sort of shut down some of the steel lines and facilities. So net-net, sort of if you do the math, it will be, you know, a slight reduction of free cash flow in the new year.

Stefan Schellinger: And then also the cash interest will go up to $205 million as a result of new facilities we entered into last year. And then also the lease repayments will go up a little bit to $205 million given that the new leases are sort of reaching their full run rate. We expect very little exceptionals. We've been through our restructuring, sort of shut down some of the steel lines and facilities. So net-net, sort of if you do the math, it will be, you know, a slight reduction of free cash flow in the new year.

Speaker Change: We entered into last year, and then also the lease repayments will go up a little bit.

Speaker Change: 205, given that new leases sort of reaching the full run rate, we expect very little exceptional as we've been through our restructuring sort of shutdown ourselves.

Speaker Change: Steel lines and facilities. So net net sort of as you do the math it will be.

Speaker Change: <unk>.

Speaker Change: Slight reduction of free cash flow.

Speaker Change: In the new year and in terms of spending I mean, there is the capital allocation policy and the dividend policy.

Stephen Lyons: In terms of spending, I mean, the capital allocation policy and the dividend policy of the company has not changed, so that will be consistent with what you've seen in 2024 as per our expectation.

Stefan Schellinger: In terms of spending, I mean, the capital allocation policy and the dividend policy of the company has not changed, so that will be consistent with what you've seen in 2024 as per our expectation.

Speaker Change: The company has not changed so so that will be consistent with what you've seen in 2024 as for all expectations.

Gabe Hajde: Thanks.

Arun Viswanathan: Thanks.

Speaker Change: Thanks.

Stephen Lyons: Our next question comes from Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities.

Speaker Change: And our next question comes from Gabe <unk> with Wells Fargo Securities.

Operator: Our next question comes from Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities.

Oliver Graham: Holly Stevens, good morning. Hi, Gabe.

Speaker Change: I'll, let Stephen good morning.

Holly Stevens: Holly Stevens, good morning.

Oliver Graham: Hi, Gabe.

Speaker Change: Okay.

Gabe Hajde: I wanted to ask, there's been some question around, you talked about tariffs, but potential for the new administration to look at, you know, reformulation, specifically in carbonated soft drinks. And we've done a reasonable amount of work on this. I'm just curious if there's been any early dialogue with customers. I suspect I know what their view is on this, but just how that could play out in terms of cost to the customer or anything that you've come across so far.

Speaker Change: Got it.

Holly Stevens: I wanted to ask, there's been some question around, you talked about tariffs, but potential for the new administration to look at, you know, reformulation, specifically in carbonated soft drinks. And we've done a reasonable amount of work on this. I'm just curious if there's been any early dialogue with customers. I suspect I know what their view is on this, but just how that could play out in terms of cost to the customer or anything that you've come across so far.

Speaker Change: I wanted to ask.

Speaker Change: There has been some question around you talked about tariffs, but potential for the new administration to look at re formulation.

Speaker Change: Specifically in carbonated soft drinks.

Speaker Change: And we've done a reasonable amount of work on this I'm just curious if theres been any early dialogue with customers.

Speaker Change: I suspect I know what their view is on this but.

Speaker Change: Just how that could play out in terms of.

Speaker Change: Cost to the customer or anything that you've come across so far.

Oliver Graham: Yeah, really not actually. You know, as I said, I think most of the dialogue is about making sure they're getting supplied, because we're seeing growth in, certainly we're seeing both growth in Europe and North America, on the CSD side, particularly in the beginning of the year, actually. They were strong all year through North America, had some, you know, strengths and weaknesses in the portfolio in Europe, but in general, the category seems in very good health in cans, and that does seem to be continuing. And actually, the same is true for Brazil, even though we're not participating. So yeah, look... It's a hard one, isn't it?

Speaker Change: Yes, really not actually.

Speaker Change: And as I said I think most of the dialogue is about making sure they're getting supply because we are seeing growth in.

Speaker Change: And certainly we're seeing both growth in Europe, and North America.

Speaker Change: Steady side, particularly in the beginning of the year actually.

Speaker Change: It was strong all year through North America had some.

Speaker Change: Some weaknesses in the portfolio in Europe, but in general the category seems in very good health and in cans and that does seem to be continuing and actually the same is true for Brazil, even though we're not participating so yes.

Speaker Change: Yes look.

Speaker Change: It's a hard one isn't it cool what's going to happen at the minute but.

Oliver Graham: To call what's gonna happen at the minute, but, you know, I'd just say our customers have been very agile and effective in the past at managing different trends, regulations, and health concerns and, you know, they're very big and highly professional companies that you'd expect to work through these sorts of issues. But, but yeah, no real dialogue with us, to be honest.

Speaker Change: Our customers have been very.

Speaker Change: John and effective in the past that managing different trends and regulations and health concerns.

Speaker Change: Very big in R&D professional companies that you would expect to work through these sorts of issues, but no real dialogue with us on this.

Gabe Hajde: Okay. And then I wanted to. I think it's on slide 17, in the guidance kind of bullets, you talked about PPI headwinds and then higher metal conversion costs, which I don't think we've heard much on that, maybe in 2021, in terms of conversion costs. I'm assuming the PPI commentary was mostly isolated to North America, if you can confirm that, maybe quantify it for us, if you're willing. And then the conversion costs in Europe, is that something that's. What's driving that, I guess, number one, and then number two, could that persist into 2026, 2027, or is that isolated to 2025?

Holly Stevens: Okay. And then I wanted to. I think it's on slide 17, in the guidance kind of bullets, you talked about PPI headwinds and then higher metal conversion costs, which I don't think we've heard much on that, maybe in 2021, in terms of conversion costs. I'm assuming the PPI commentary was mostly isolated to North America, if you can confirm that, maybe quantify it for us, if you're willing. And then the conversion costs in Europe, is that something that's. What's driving that, I guess, number one, and then number two, could that persist into 2026, 2027, or is that isolated to 2025?

Speaker Change: Okay, and then I wanted to I think it's on slide 17.

Speaker Change: The guidance kind of bullets, you talked about PPI headwinds and then higher metal conversion costs, which I don't think we've heard much on that maybe in 2021 in terms of conversion costs.

Speaker Change: I'm, assuming the PPI com.

Speaker Change: Commentary was mostly isolated to North America, if you can confirm that.

Speaker Change: Maybe.

Speaker Change: Quantify it for us if youre willing and then the conversion cost in Europe is that something thats.

Speaker Change: What's driving that I guess number one and then number two.

Speaker Change: Could that persists into 'twenty six 'twenty seven or is that isolated to 'twenty five.

Oliver Graham: Yeah, no, actually, for us, the PPI headwinds more located in Europe. I saw, you know, our peers talking about North America. But actually, you know, we have negative PPI in Europe at the moment. And, you know, I think, again, our peers have talked about this, but some of our costs never go negative, particularly labor. So when we get into negative PPI, though, we have contract structure to try and avoid this, we do get some drag on our pass-throughs. And then actually the aluminum conversion cost is also a specifically European issue, where the market for coils is shorter in Europe, particularly domestic supply is shorter, and people have been prioritizing that a bit with everything going on in the world.

Speaker Change: Yes, no actually.

Speaker Change: For us the PPI headwinds mall located in Europe. So you know our peers talking about North America.

Speaker Change: But actually we are.

Speaker Change: Negative PPI.

Speaker Change: In Europe at the moment.

Speaker Change: I think again as I talked about this but some of our costs navigate negative, particularly labor.

Speaker Change: We have when we get into negative PPI, we have contract structure to try and avoid this we do get some drag.

Speaker Change: I'll now pass throughs.

And then actually the aluminum conversion costs is also specifically European issue at the market.

Speaker Change: Coils as is shorter in Europe, particularly domestic supply short and people have been prioritizing that a bit.

Speaker Change: With everything going on in the world. So.

Oliver Graham: So, we're definitely seeing those headwinds more in Europe than in North America, where we have actually transferred our pass-through mechanisms to include much more of a labor mechanism and tend to get better pass-through. We have some headwind in North America, which is just we have talked about, I think, the inevitable reduction in some of the specialty margins that had grown up during COVID times. So, but it's not on the cost side, and it's not on the PPI side. So yeah, I think that's the shape of it. I think this aluminum conversion piece, so this is certainly the peak of the issue.

Speaker Change: We're definitely seeing those headwinds more in Europe than in North America, where we have actually.

Speaker Change: Transferred our pass through mechanisms to include much more of a labor mechanism.

Speaker Change: Tons get better pass through we have some headwind in North America, which is just we have talked about I think.

Speaker Change: The inevitable reduction in some of the specialty margins that had grown up during Covid times.

Speaker Change: But it's not on the cost side and it's not on the PPI side.

Speaker Change: So, yes, I think thats the shape of it I think.

Speaker Change: Aluminum conversion piece. So this is certainly the peak of the issue. There is also slightly related to the energy cost.

Oliver Graham: It is also slightly related to the energy costs, too, in Europe, that, you know, energy costs increasing is coming through a little bit on the metal, having been shielded a little bit by hedges on their side in the last couple of years. So it's also a lag effect on some of those costs coming through. But you know, it is a specifically European issue. We've got, you know, good capacity coming through in North America on rolling mills, which will be very positive for the industry. We're not really seeing these issues in Brazil. We think the European issue, you know, mitigates over the next few years.

Speaker Change: Two in Europe that LNG costs, increasing is coming through a little bit on the metro having been shielded a little bit by hedges on that side in the last couple of years.

Speaker Change: Also a lag effect on some of those costs coming through but.

Speaker Change: And it is specifically European issue.

Speaker Change: Had good capacity coming through in North America on Rolling Mills, which will be very positive for the industry.

Speaker Change: Really seeing these issues in Brazil, and we think the European issue.

Speaker Change: Mitigate so over the next few years.

Gabe Hajde: Understood. Okay, and last one, real quick, just to piggyback on the cash flow and Arun's question. I guess to put some numbers to it, it looks like free cash flow something in the $130 to 140 million range. And then we've got to take off there the dividends that you're paying out. So leverage for 2025 at the midpoint of $685 EBITDA is maybe it tickles down to 4.8, give or take. Is that what you guys are thinking about internally?

Holly Stevens: Understood. Okay, and last one, real quick, just to piggyback on the cash flow and Arun's question. I guess to put some numbers to it, it looks like free cash flow something in the $130 to 140 million range. And then we've got to take off there the dividends that you're paying out. So leverage for 2025 at the midpoint of $685 EBITDA is maybe it tickles down to 4.8, give or take. Is that what you guys are thinking about internally?

Speaker Change: Understood, Okay and last one real quick just to piggyback on the cash flow and our rooms question I guess to put some numbers to it it looks like free cash flow something in the $130 million to $140 million range.

Speaker Change: And then we've got to take off there the the dividend.

Speaker Change: That you are paying out so leverage for 2025 at the midpoint.

Speaker Change: <unk> hundred 85 of EBITDA as maybe it goes down to $4 eight give or take is that what you guys are thinking about internally.

Stephen Lyons: Yeah, I think that broadly, I think is all, all in the ballpark. I think we would expect leverage to be pretty, pretty steady relative to what we, what we printed in for this year and end of 2024.

Stefan Schellinger: Yeah, I think that broadly, I think is all, all in the ballpark. I think we would expect leverage to be pretty, pretty steady relative to what we, what we printed in for this year and end of 2024.

Speaker Change: Yes, I think that broadly I think it's all in the ballpark I think we would expect leverage to be pretty pretty steady relative to what we what we printed in.

Speaker Change: For this year in 2024.

Gabe Hajde: Great. Thank you, guys.

Holly Stevens: Great. Thank you, guys.

Speaker Change: Great. Thank you guys.

Oliver Graham: Thanks, Gabe.

Speaker Change: Thanks Scott.

Stephen Lyons: Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Mike Leithead with Barclays.

Speaker Change: And ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone keypad.

Speaker Change: And our next question comes from Mike <unk> with Barclays.

Michael Leithead: Great, thanks. Good morning, guys. First question I want-

Mike Leithead: Great, thanks. Good morning, guys. First question I want-

Mike: Great. Thanks, Good morning, guys.

Mike: First question I wanted <unk> morning, I, just wanted to talk about the earnings outlook as you kind of talk through with Gabe, 2% to 3% volume growth.

Oliver Graham: Good morning.

Michael Leithead: Morning. I just want to talk about the earnings outlook. As you kind of talked through with Gabe, 2 to 3% volume growth and the EBITDA growth of $10 to 15 million at the midpoint, I would have thought there's a bit higher of incremental margin you would have gotten on that volume. It seems like you have some headwinds you talked about. Can you just help us better understand the moving pieces, like how we should think about the actual benefit from the volume growth and how that's being offset in your guidance?

Mike Leithead: Morning. I just want to talk about the earnings outlook. As you kind of talked through with Gabe, 2 to 3% volume growth and the EBITDA growth of $10 to 15 million at the midpoint, I would have thought there's a bit higher of incremental margin you would have gotten on that volume. It seems like you have some headwinds you talked about. Can you just help us better understand the moving pieces, like how we should think about the actual benefit from the volume growth and how that's being offset in your guidance?

Speaker Change: And the EBITDA growth of $10 million to $15 million at the midpoint of I would've thought there was a bit higher of incremental margin you would've gotten on that volume. It seems like you have some headwinds you talked about can you just help us better understand the moving pieces like how we should think about the actual benefit from the volume growth and how that's being offset in your in your guidance.

Mike: <unk>.

Oliver Graham: Yeah, look, I think, without giving exact numbers, the piece we talked about are the headwinds. So the volume growth of 2% to 3% would translate through reasonably normally, and then we have particularly the aluminum conversion cost and the PPI headwinds in Europe, the FX headwind that we talked about on a reported basis, and some specialty pricing pressures in North America, which again, I don't think they're broad-based, they're just some specific situations as we come out of the COVID period. So those are the headwinds, which mean that, as you say, we're not getting a full translation of the 2% to 3%. On the other hand, we do have some significant operational cost savings as well. We're always working, you know, to improve efficiency at the plant level.

Mike: Yes.

Mike: Without giving exact numbers.

And the piece that we talked about other headwinds.

Mike: The volume growth of.

Mike: 2% to 3% would translate.

Mike: Three reason they normally and then we have the.

Mike: Particularly the aluminum conversion costs in the PPI headwinds in Europe, the FX headwind that we talked about on a reported basis.

Mike: Some specialty pricing pressures in North America, which again I don't think that broad based not just specific situations as we come out of the Covid period. So those are the headwinds, which mean that as you say, we're not getting a full translation of the 2% to 3% on the other and we do have some significant operational cost savings.

Mike: We're always working to improve efficiency at the plant level, we're always working on input cost savings was working on SG&A efficiency. So they are also offsetting some of those some of those headwinds.

Oliver Graham: We're always working on input cost savings. We're always working on SG&A efficiency, so they are also offsetting some of those headwinds.

Michael Leithead: Got it. Thank you, Oli. Then for a follow-up, just a question on the cash flow. EBITDA is up this year, but as you mentioned, free cash flow is down a bit. It seems like part of it is higher financing related costs, part of it is higher maintenance. I appreciate it's early to think beyond 25, but just will 2025 be the peak in cash use items? I guess what I'm trying to get at is when can we start generating cash above the dividend here?

Mike Leithead: Got it. Thank you, Oli. Then for a follow-up, just a question on the cash flow. EBITDA is up this year, but as you mentioned, free cash flow is down a bit. It seems like part of it is higher financing related costs, part of it is higher maintenance. I appreciate it's early to think beyond 25, but just will 2025 be the peak in cash use items? I guess what I'm trying to get at is when can we start generating cash above the dividend here?

Anthony Pettinari: Got it. Thank you Ali and then for a follow up just a question on the cash flow Ebitdas up this year, but as you mentioned free cash flow is down a bit it seems like part of it is higher financing related cost part of it is higher maintenance I. Appreciate it's early to think beyond 25, but just will 2025 would be the peak in cash use item.

Speaker Change: I guess, what I'm trying to get at is when can we start generating cash above the dividend here.

Stephen Lyons: Yeah, I think, as you say, it's probably a little bit early to talk about that, I mean, given that we're focusing here on 2025. I think some of the, let's say, of the bigger needle movers, for instance, we talked about the growth CapEx. I think we are probably behind the big phase of expansion there and sort of the $50 million for this year, sort of $50 to 60 million, you know, going forward. That's probably not a bad number. But I think sort of overall, I think a lot of it is really depending on the, you know, the EBITDA growth, I think beyond sort of 2025, I think that will drive a lot of the cash flow profile.

Stefan Schellinger: Yeah, I think, as you say, it's probably a little bit early to talk about that, I mean, given that we're focusing here on 2025. I think some of the, let's say, of the bigger needle movers, for instance, we talked about the growth CapEx. I think we are probably behind the big phase of expansion there and sort of the $50 million for this year, sort of $50 to 60 million, you know, going forward. That's probably not a bad number. But I think sort of overall, I think a lot of it is really depending on the, you know, the EBITDA growth, I think beyond sort of 2025, I think that will drive a lot of the cash flow profile.

Speaker Change: Yes, I think as you say, it's probably a little bit early to talk about that I mean, we are focusing here on 2025 I think.

Speaker Change: Some of the let's say of the big needle movers funds when we talked about the gross capex.

Speaker Change: We are probably behind the big phase of expansion, there and sort of the.

Speaker Change: 50 million for this year sort of $50 million to $60 million.

Speaker Change: Going forward, that's probably not a bad number.

Speaker Change: But I think sort of overall I think a lot a lot of it is real.

Speaker Change: Depending on the.

Speaker Change: EBITDA growth beyond sort of 295.

Speaker Change: I think that will drive a lot of the cash flow profile.

Michael Leithead: Okay. Thank you.

Mike Leithead: Okay. Thank you.

Speaker Change: Okay. Thank you.

Oliver Graham: ... Thanks. Bye.

Speaker Change: Thanks, Mike.

Stephen Lyons: Our next question comes from Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities.

Speaker Change: And our next question comes from Gabe <unk> with Wells Fargo Securities.

Stephen Lyons: Our next question comes from Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities.

Gabe Hajde: Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the follow-up, and I apologize, my phone kind of cut out for a second when you were talking about Europe. That segment was decently ahead of our model. I think you talked about shipping incremental ends maybe closer to the end of the year or something like that. But just, A, to confirm, and then I guess, maybe looking at prior Q4s, you're relatively consistent with what you were in 2021. I'm just trying to understand, like, the improved overhead absorption in the fourth quarter, how much that played into the quarter.

Holly Stevens: Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the follow-up, and I apologize, my phone kind of cut out for a second when you were talking about Europe. That segment was decently ahead of our model. I think you talked about shipping incremental ends maybe closer to the end of the year or something like that. But just, A, to confirm, and then I guess, maybe looking at prior Q4s, you're relatively consistent with what you were in 2021. I'm just trying to understand, like, the improved overhead absorption in the fourth quarter, how much that played into the quarter.

Speaker Change: Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the follow up and I apologize my phone kind of cut out for a second when you were talking about Europe.

Speaker Change: That segment was decently ahead of our model I think you talked about shipping incremental and maybe closer to the <unk>.

End of the year or something like that but just a to confirm and then I guess maybe.

Speaker Change: Maybe looking at.

Speaker Change: Prior Q4s.

Speaker Change: Relatively consistent with what you were in 2021, I'm just trying to understand like the improved overhead absorption.

Speaker Change: In the fourth quarter, how much that played into the quarter.

Gabe Hajde: And then maybe is there any. It sounds like the strength kind of persisted into Q1, so that sounds like the answer is no, but maybe order ahead of anticipated price increases on the aluminum side or, or this can conversion issue that your customers had sniffed out.

Speaker Change: And then maybe is there any it sounds like the strength kind of persisted into Q1. So it sounds like the answer is no but.

Holly Stevens: And then maybe is there any. It sounds like the strength kind of persisted into Q1, so that sounds like the answer is no, but maybe order ahead of anticipated price increases on the aluminum side or, or this can conversion issue that your customers had sniffed out.

Speaker Change: Maybe order ahead of anticipated price increases on the aluminum side.

Speaker Change: This can conversion issue that your customers had sniffed out.

Oliver Graham: Yeah. So look, I think on Europe, there was no overselling of ends. If anything, the opposite, we were quite short due to some operational issues on ends. So that was a straight, you know, typical can number, the 8% growth. Obviously, it's true that Q4 2023 was pretty soft because of the big destocking. But that all just played through then into higher production, better utilization, as you say, better fixed cost recovery. So I think everything just came together very nicely in Q4 and particularly into the year-end. You know, we were strong right through to the end of the year. And then I wasn't sure there was some question about the fixed cost recovery. Yeah, look, obviously, generally across the company, we grew 3% last year.

Speaker Change: Yes, So look I think on Europe, there was no overselling events.

Speaker Change: If anything the opposite we were quite short.

Speaker Change: Operational issues and so so that was a straight typical Ken number the 8% growth. Obviously it is true that Q4 23 was was pretty soft because of the big Destocking.

Speaker Change: But that will just play through that into high production better utilization as you say better fixed cost recovery.

Speaker Change: So I think everything just came together very nicely in Q4, and particularly into the year end.

Speaker Change: We were strong right through to the right through to the end of the year.

Speaker Change: And then I wasn't sure the question about the fixed cost recovery, obviously generally across the company. We grew 3% last year, we did improve our fixed cost recovery with the capacity that we've put in place. So that that was definitely true and then in terms of the start to the year.

Oliver Graham: We did improve our fixed cost recovery, you know, with the capacity that we put in place, so that was, that was definitely true. And then in terms of, yeah, the start to the year, you know, it's not that customers are particularly talking to us about any particular issue, but we're just finding that, you know, demand is looking, you know, pretty good, particularly Europe, North America, probably less so Brazil. I think, in Brazil, the summer doesn't look like it'll be amazing. Q4, you know, actually went into negative growth, as I mentioned in the remarks, in the market, after a super strong first part of the year. And it still looks a bit bumpy. I think the consumer environment is weak. Obviously, strong dollar is never good for Brazil. So look, we still, you know, are positive about Brazil growth.

Speaker Change: It's not that customers are particularly talking to us about.

Speaker Change: Any particular issue, but we're just finding that demand is looking.

Speaker Change: Pretty good.

Speaker Change: Particularly Europe, North America, probably less so Brazil, I think Brazil, the summer doesn't like it will be amazing Q4 actually went into negative growth as I mentioned in the remarks in the market. After a super strong first half of the year.

Speaker Change: And it still looks a bit bumpy I think the consumer environment is weak obviously strong dollar is never good for Brazil.

Speaker Change: So we still.

Speaker Change: Throughout Brazil growth, we think three to five zone impossible for the year, so, but it's going to come more second half weighted but look of it.

Oliver Graham: We think, you know, 3 to 5% is not impossible for the year at all, but it, it's gonna come more second half weighted by the look of it. So no, I think it's more that Europe, North America, customers still seem to be leaning into the can, for all the reasons we've talked about, sustainability, competitiveness. And as I say, you know, we can sort of point out that the PPI headwind is a slight drag on our results, but from a market point of view, it obviously makes the can very competitive for our customers, so it does help drive volume. So yeah, as we look at it, sitting here today, you know, we'd be hopeful of a good year on the volume front.

Speaker Change: So no I think it's more of that Europe North America.

Speaker Change: Customers still seem to be leaning into the can for all the reasons, we've talked about sustainability competitiveness and as I say.

Speaker Change: We can sort of point out the PPI headwind is a slight drag on our results but from.

Speaker Change: Our market point of view it obviously makes the cam very competitive for our customers. So it does help drive volumes so.

Speaker Change: As we look at it sitting here today.

We'd be hopeful of a good year on the volume front.

Gabe Hajde: Yep. No, understood. Thank you.

Holly Stevens: Yep. No, understood. Thank you.

Speaker Change: Yeah no understood. Thank you.

Oliver Graham: Thanks, Gabe.

Speaker Change: Thanks Scott.

Stephen Lyons: Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's question and answer session. I'll turn the call back to Oliver Graham for any additional or closing remarks.

Speaker Change: And ladies and gentlemen that concludes today's question and answer session I'll turn the call back to Oliver Graham <unk> for any additional or closing remarks.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's question and answer session. I'll turn the call back to Oliver Graham for any additional or closing remarks.

Oliver Graham: Thanks, Lisa, and thanks, everyone, for joining. So I think just summarizing, obviously, we had a good Q4. It was ahead of expectations, particularly led by Europe. We grew across the year by 3%, and we do see the beverage can taking share across our markets, and that gives us confidence in further growth into 2025 and further growth in Adjusted EBITDA. So we look forward to talking to you all again at our Q1 results. Thanks very much.

Oliver Graham: Thanks, Lisa and thanks, everyone for joining so I think just summarizing obviously, we had a good Q4. It was ahead of expectations, particularly led by Europe, and we grew across the year by 3%.

Oliver Graham: And we do see the beverage cans, taking share across our markets and that gives us confidence in further growth into 2025 and further growth in adjusted EBITDA. So we look forward to talking to you all again at our Q1 results. Thanks very much.

Stephen Lyons: That concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Oliver Graham: And that concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation you may now disconnect.

Operator: That concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Oliver Graham: Okay.

Oliver Graham: [music].

Oliver Graham: Okay.

Oliver Graham: Yeah.

Oliver Graham: Okay.

Oliver Graham: [music].

Oliver Graham: Okay.

Oliver Graham: [music].

Oliver Graham: Okay.

Oliver Graham: [music].

Oliver Graham: Yeah.

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