Q4 2024 Cheniere Energy Partners LP Earnings Call
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Operator: Good day, and welcome to the Cheniere Energy Q4 and full year 2024 Earnings Call and Webcast. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Randy Bhatia, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Operator: Good day, and welcome to the Cheniere Energy Q4 and full year 2024 Earnings Call and Webcast. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Randy Bhatia, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Dan: Yeah, Dan and welcome to the Cheniere energy fourth quarter and full year of 2024 earnings call and webcast today.
Speaker Change: Today's conference is being recorded at this time I'd like to turn the conference over to Randy Bhatia, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead Sir.
Randy Bhatia: Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Cheniere's Q4 and full year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. The slide presentation and access to the webcast for today's call are available at cheniere.com. Joining me this morning are Jack Fusco, Cheniere's President and CEO, Anatol Feygin, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, and Zach Davis, Executive Vice President and CFO. Before we begin, I would like to remind all listeners that our remarks, including answers to your questions, may contain forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from what is described in these statements. Slide two of our presentation contains a discussion of those forward-looking statements and associated risks. In addition, we may include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow.
Randy Bhatia: Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Cheniere's Q4 and full year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. The slide presentation and access to the webcast for today's call are available at cheniere.com. Joining me this morning are Jack Fusco, Cheniere's President and CEO, Anatol Feygin, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, and Zach Davis, Executive Vice President and CFO. Before we begin, I would like to remind all listeners that our remarks, including answers to your questions, may contain forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from what is described in these statements. Slide two of our presentation contains a discussion of those forward-looking statements and associated risks. In addition, we may include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow.
Randy Bhatia: Thanks, operator, and good morning, everyone and welcome to <unk> fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call and slide presentation and access to the webcast for today's call are available at Cheniere Dot com.
Speaker Change: Joining me. This morning are Jack Fusco, <unk>, President and CEO, Anatol, Fagan Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, and Zach Davis Executive Vice President and CFO.
Speaker Change: Before we begin I would like to remind all listeners that our remarks, including answers to your questions may contain forward looking statements and actual results could differ materially from what is described in these statements.
Speaker Change: Slide two of our presentation contains a discussion of those forward looking statements and associated risks.
Speaker Change: In addition, we may include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures such as consolidated adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow.
Randy Bhatia: A reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measure can be found in the appendix to the slide presentation. As part of our discussion of Cheniere's results, today's call may also include selected financial information and results for Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. or CQP. We do not intend to cover CQP's results separately from those of Cheniere Energy, Inc. The call agenda is shown on slide 3. Jack will begin with operating and financial highlights. Anatol Feygin will then provide an update on the LNG market, and Zach Davis will review our financial results in 2025 guidance. After prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q&A. I'll now turn the call over to Jack Fusco, Cheniere's President and CEO.
Randy Bhatia: A reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measure can be found in the appendix to the slide presentation. As part of our discussion of Cheniere's results, today's call may also include selected financial information and results for Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. or CQP. We do not intend to cover CQP's results separately from those of Cheniere Energy, Inc. The call agenda is shown on slide 3. Jack will begin with operating and financial highlights. Anatol Feygin will then provide an update on the LNG market, and Zach Davis will review our financial results in 2025 guidance. After prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q&A. I'll now turn the call over to Jack Fusco, Cheniere's President and CEO.
Speaker Change: A reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measure can be found in the appendix to the slide presentation.
Speaker Change: As part of our discussion of <unk> results. Today's call May also include selected financial information and results for Cheniere Energy partners LP or <unk>.
Speaker Change: We do not intend to cover <unk> results separately from those of Cheniere Energy Inc.
The call agenda is shown on slide three Jack will begin with operating and financial highlights Anatol will then provide an update on the LNG market and Zach will review our financial results in 2025 guidance.
Speaker Change: After our prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q&A.
Jack Fusco: I will now turn the call over to Jack Fusco, <unk>, President and CEO.
Jack Fusco: Thank you, Randy. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today as we review our outstanding results from the Q4 and full year 2024 and discuss our vision for what I expect to be an exciting and rewarding year for Cheniere in 2025. In 2024, we once again generated excellent results across the key strategic priorities of the company, driven by our uncompromising ambition to consistently deliver sustainable long-term value to our stakeholders. These results, underpinned by Cheniere's safety-first culture, operational excellence, customer focus, and financial discipline, further distinguish Cheniere in the market and reinforce a reputation as best-in-class across our entire platform. We take these successes in 2025 with the wind at our backs as the global market call for new LNG capacity is ringing loud and clear.
Jack Fusco: Thank you, Randy. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today as we review our outstanding results from the Q4 and full year 2024 and discuss our vision for what I expect to be an exciting and rewarding year for Cheniere in 2025. In 2024, we once again generated excellent results across the key strategic priorities of the company, driven by our uncompromising ambition to consistently deliver sustainable long-term value to our stakeholders. These results, underpinned by Cheniere's safety-first culture, operational excellence, customer focus, and financial discipline, further distinguish Cheniere in the market and reinforce a reputation as best-in-class across our entire platform. We take these successes in 2025 with the wind at our backs as the global market call for new LNG capacity is ringing loud and clear.
Jack Fusco: Thank you Randy good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today as we review our outstanding results from the fourth quarter and full year 2024 and.
Jack Fusco: And discuss our vision for what I expect to be an exciting and rewarding year for Cheniere and 2025.
Jack Fusco: In 2024, we once again generated excellent results across the key strategic priorities of the company driven by our uncompromising ambition to consistently deliver sustainable long term value to our stakeholders.
Jack Fusco: These results underpinned by Cheniere safety first culture operational excellence customer focus and financial discipline further distinguished generic in the market and reinforce our reputation as best in class across our entire platform.
Jack Fusco: We take these successes in 2025 with the wind at our backs as a global market call for new LNG capacity is ringing loud and clear.
Jack Fusco: Energy security in general, and natural gas in particular, have been prioritized over the last several years, accelerated by geopolitical conflicts in multiple theaters that have refocused governments on the long-term importance of natural gas. Throughout these conflicts, the criticality of a long-term energy supply portfolio that is diverse, secure, and perhaps most of all reliable has been laid bare, and Cheniere's LNG stands as an ideal and powerful solution. The United States has a significant opportunity to provide that reliable and secure energy supply the world over. We now have a more constructive backdrop for the development and operation of large-scale energy infrastructure in this country.
Jack Fusco: Energy security in general, and natural gas in particular, have been prioritized over the last several years, accelerated by geopolitical conflicts in multiple theaters that have refocused governments on the long-term importance of natural gas. Throughout these conflicts, the criticality of a long-term energy supply portfolio that is diverse, secure, and perhaps most of all reliable has been laid bare, and Cheniere's LNG stands as an ideal and powerful solution. The United States has a significant opportunity to provide that reliable and secure energy supply the world over. We now have a more constructive backdrop for the development and operation of large-scale energy infrastructure in this country.
Jack Fusco: Energy security in general and natural gas in particular.
Jack Fusco: Have been prioritized over the last several years.
Jack Fusco: Celebrated by geopolitical conflicts in multiple theaters that have refocused government of a long term importance of natural gas.
Jack Fusco: Throughout these conflicts the criticality of our long term energy supply portfolio that is diverse secure and perhaps most of all reliable has been laid bare engineers LNG stands as an ideal and powerful solution.
Jack Fusco: The United States as a significant opportunity to provide that reliable and secure energy supply the world over and.
Jack Fusco: And we now have a more constructive backdrop for the development and operation of large scale energy infrastructure in this country.
Jack Fusco: We are engaged with the new administration in Washington, and are optimistic for a more clear, transparent, and predictable permitting and regulatory regime, so we can continue to safely build and operate more LNG capacity the world so clearly needs for decades to come. Please turn to slide 5, where I'll highlight our key accomplishments and results for Q4 and full year 2024, as well as introduce our financial guidance for 2025. In Q4, we generated Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.6 billion, bringing our total for the full year to $6.155 billion. We generated Distributable Cash Flow of approximately $1.1 billion in Q4 and approximately $3.73 billion for the full year.
Jack Fusco: We are engaged with the new administration in Washington, and are optimistic for a more clear, transparent, and predictable permitting and regulatory regime, so we can continue to safely build and operate more LNG capacity the world so clearly needs for decades to come. Please turn to slide 5, where I'll highlight our key accomplishments and results for Q4 and full year 2024, as well as introduce our financial guidance for 2025. In Q4, we generated Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.6 billion, bringing our total for the full year to $6.155 billion. We generated Distributable Cash Flow of approximately $1.1 billion in Q4 and approximately $3.73 billion for the full year.
Jack Fusco: We are engaged with the new administration in Washington, and are optimistic for a more clear transparent and predictable permitting and regulatory regime. So we can continue to safely build and operate more LNG capacity the world. So clearly needs for decades to come.
Speaker Change: Please turn to slide five.
Speaker Change: Were a highlight our key accomplishments and results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, as well as introduce our financial guidance for 2025.
Speaker Change: In the fourth quarter, we generated consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1 6 billion, bringing our total for the full year to $6 $1 5 billion.
Speaker Change: We generated distributable cash flow of approximately $1 1 billion in the fourth quarter and approximately $3 73 billion for the full year.
Jack Fusco: Net income in Q4 totaled approximately $1 billion and approximately $3.3 billion for the year. Full year EBITDA landed in the middle of our recently increased guidance range and $155 million above the high end of the original range provided a year ago. On DCF, we delivered results above the most recent range and $300 million above the high end of the original range. These outstanding financial results are once again enabled by the relentless focus on performance that I'm proud to share with my 1,700 Cheniere colleagues around the world. We produced a record amount of LNG in 2024, approximately 45 million tons, which is over 10% of the global LNG supply in the year.
Jack Fusco: Net income in Q4 totaled approximately $1 billion and approximately $3.3 billion for the year. Full year EBITDA landed in the middle of our recently increased guidance range and $155 million above the high end of the original range provided a year ago. On DCF, we delivered results above the most recent range and $300 million above the high end of the original range. These outstanding financial results are once again enabled by the relentless focus on performance that I'm proud to share with my 1,700 Cheniere colleagues around the world. We produced a record amount of LNG in 2024, approximately 45 million tons, which is over 10% of the global LNG supply in the year.
Speaker Change: Net income in the fourth quarter totaled approximately $1 billion and approximately $3 3 billion for the year.
Speaker Change: Full year EBITDA landed in the middle of our recently increased guidance range and $155 million above the high end of the original range provided a year ago.
Speaker Change: DCF, we delivered results above the most recent range and $300 million above the high end of the original range.
Speaker Change: These outstanding financial results are once again enabled by the relentless focus on performance.
Speaker Change: And I am proud to share with my 1700, Cheniere colleagues around the world.
Speaker Change: We produced a record amount of LNG in 2020 for approximately 45 million tonnes, which is over 10% of the global LNG supply in the year.
Jack Fusco: We did so while successfully completing turnarounds at both Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi, and most importantly, we once again delivered a top quintile safety performance. In 2024, SPL achieved 11 million labor hours, and Corpus Christi achieved 7 million labor hours without a single lost time incident. All of our stakeholders should take as much pride in these results as I do, as the Cheniere production teams continue to set the safety and reliability standard in our industry. During 2024, Zach and his team continued to make excellent progress on our comprehensive capital allocation plan, deploying over $1.5 billion towards our stage three project, paying down $800 million of long-term debt, and buying back almost 14 million shares for approximately $2.25 billion.
Jack Fusco: We did so while successfully completing turnarounds at both Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi, and most importantly, we once again delivered a top quintile safety performance. In 2024, SPL achieved 11 million labor hours, and Corpus Christi achieved 7 million labor hours without a single lost time incident. All of our stakeholders should take as much pride in these results as I do, as the Cheniere production teams continue to set the safety and reliability standard in our industry. During 2024, Zach and his team continued to make excellent progress on our comprehensive capital allocation plan, deploying over $1.5 billion towards our stage three project, paying down $800 million of long-term debt, and buying back almost 14 million shares for approximately $2.25 billion.
Speaker Change: And we did so while successfully completed turnarounds at both Sabine pass and Corpus Christi and most importantly, we once again delivered a top quintile safety performance.
Speaker Change: In 2020 for SPL achieved $11 million labor hours, and Corpus Christi achieved 7 million labor hours without a single lost time incident.
Speaker Change: All of our stakeholders should take as much pride in these results is ideal.
Speaker Change: As the Cheniere production teams continue to set the safety and reliability standard in our industry.
Speaker Change: During 2020 for Zach and his team continue to make excellent progress on our comprehensive capital allocation plan deploying over $1 $5 billion towards our stage three project paying down $800 million.
Speaker Change: Of long term debt and buying back almost 14 million shares for approximately $2 two 5 billion.
Jack Fusco: In addition, we increased the dividend by 15% to $2 per share annualized and announced another $4 billion share repurchase authorization last summer, well ahead of schedule. Looking ahead to the full year 2025, I'm pleased to introduce our 2025 financial guidance of $6.5 to 7 billion in Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA, $4.1 to 4.6 billion in Distributable Cash Flow, and $3.25 to 3.35 in per unit distributions at CQP. These ranges reinforce that 2024 was a trough year for EBITDA and DCF, as we expect year-over-year growth in 2025 as Corpus Christi Stage 3 begins to enter operations. The guidance range contemplates the first three trains of Corpus Christi Stage 3 start up production this year.
Jack Fusco: In addition, we increased the dividend by 15% to $2 per share annualized and announced another $4 billion share repurchase authorization last summer, well ahead of schedule. Looking ahead to the full year 2025, I'm pleased to introduce our 2025 financial guidance of $6.5 to 7 billion in Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA, $4.1 to 4.6 billion in Distributable Cash Flow, and $3.25 to 3.35 in per unit distributions at CQP. These ranges reinforce that 2024 was a trough year for EBITDA and DCF, as we expect year-over-year growth in 2025 as Corpus Christi Stage 3 begins to enter operations. The guidance range contemplates the first three trains of Corpus Christi Stage 3 start up production this year.
Speaker Change: In addition, we increased the dividend by 15% to $2 per share annualized and announced another $4 billion share repurchase authorization last summer well ahead of schedule.
Speaker Change: Looking ahead to the full year 2025, I am pleased to introduce our 2025 financial guidance of six $5 billion to $7 billion and consolidated adjusted EBITDA.
Speaker Change: Four 1% to $4 6 billion and distributable cash flow and 325 to $3 $3 $5 and per unit distributions at <unk>.
These ranges reinforce at 2024 was a trough year for EBITDA and DCF.
Speaker Change: We expect year over year growth in 2025, and Corpus Christi stage three begins to enter operations.
Speaker Change: The guidance range contemplates the first three trains of Corpus Christi stage III startup production this year.
Jack Fusco: Zach will have more to say on guidance in a few minutes, but we are committed to delivering results within these ranges for 2025. We made significant progress on our growth during 2024, as demonstrated from our progress on our Corpus Christi stage three project. Bechtel continues to execute construction and commissioning on an accelerated schedule. At year-end, total completion stood at 77.2%, with the construction across the entire project at over 42% complete. We were proud to achieve first LNG back in December, an important milestone that helps reinforce our forecast timeline for train one to reach substantial completion by the end of Q1. I'll discuss stage three more on the next slide.
Jack Fusco: Zach will have more to say on guidance in a few minutes, but we are committed to delivering results within these ranges for 2025. We made significant progress on our growth during 2024, as demonstrated from our progress on our Corpus Christi stage three project. Bechtel continues to execute construction and commissioning on an accelerated schedule. At year-end, total completion stood at 77.2%, with the construction across the entire project at over 42% complete. We were proud to achieve first LNG back in December, an important milestone that helps reinforce our forecast timeline for train one to reach substantial completion by the end of Q1. I'll discuss stage three more on the next slide.
Speaker Change: Exactly we'll have more to say on guidance in a few minutes, but we are committed to delivering results within these ranges for 2025.
Speaker Change: We made significant progress on our growth during 2024 as demonstrated from our progress at our Corpus Christi stage III project <unk> continues to execute construction and commissioning on an accelerated schedule.
Speaker Change: At year end total completions stood at 77, 2% with the construction across the entire project that over 42% complete.
Speaker Change: We were proud to achieve first LNG back in December an important milestone that helps reinforce our forecast timeline for train one to reach substantial completion by the end of the first quarter.
Speaker Change: I'll discuss stage three more on the next slide.
Jack Fusco: With regard to Corpus Christi trains 8 and 9, the project is nearing the final regulatory approvals required in order to reach FID, and we remain on track to reach FID on this brownfield expansion this year. We recently placed orders for the long lead time items to ensure we can continue our construction efforts without delays upon receipt of the remaining necessary permits. Please turn to slide 6, where I'll provide a more in-depth look at our progress on Corpus Christi stage 3. We're working closely together with Bechtel to move stage 3 into operations. Train 1 commissioning continues to progress to plan, and I'm pleased to share that this week we completed production of our first full cargo of LNG from the stage 3 project.
Jack Fusco: With regard to Corpus Christi trains 8 and 9, the project is nearing the final regulatory approvals required in order to reach FID, and we remain on track to reach FID on this brownfield expansion this year. We recently placed orders for the long lead time items to ensure we can continue our construction efforts without delays upon receipt of the remaining necessary permits. Please turn to slide 6, where I'll provide a more in-depth look at our progress on Corpus Christi stage 3. We're working closely together with Bechtel to move stage 3 into operations. Train 1 commissioning continues to progress to plan, and I'm pleased to share that this week we completed production of our first full cargo of LNG from the stage 3 project.
Speaker Change: With regard to Corpus Christi trains eight nine.
Speaker Change: The project is nearing the final regulatory approvals required in order to reach FID.
Speaker Change: And we remain on track to reach FID on this brownfield expansion. This year. We've recently placed orders for long lead time items to ensure we can continue our construction efforts without delays upon receipt.
Speaker Change: Remaining necessary permits.
Speaker Change: Please turn to slide six where I'll provide more in depth look at our progress on Corpus Christi stage III.
Speaker Change: We are working closely together with backfill to move stage III to operations.
Speaker Change: Train one commissioning continues to progress to plan and I am pleased to share that this week, we completed production of our first full cargo of LNG from the stage three project.
Jack Fusco: Over 5,000 personnel are working to safely advance the project towards completion, and we are beginning to turn a significant number of systems over to commissioning and startup teams on train 2. In addition, all equipment and materials on trains 1 through 7 have been procured and delivered at this point, mitigating Stage 3 risks of import tariffs. We continue to target the first 3 trains to ramp up production by year-end of this year and all 7 trains to be substantially complete by the end of 2026. Please turn to slide 7, where I highlight our strategic priorities for 2025. First and foremost, we expect to reinforce our track record of best-in-class operations in 2025. We will continue to operate our business the right way, the safe way, especially as we construct and commission Corpus Christi Stage 3.
Jack Fusco: Over 5,000 personnel are working to safely advance the project towards completion, and we are beginning to turn a significant number of systems over to commissioning and startup teams on train 2. In addition, all equipment and materials on trains 1 through 7 have been procured and delivered at this point, mitigating Stage 3 risks of import tariffs. We continue to target the first 3 trains to ramp up production by year-end of this year and all 7 trains to be substantially complete by the end of 2026. Please turn to slide 7, where I highlight our strategic priorities for 2025. First and foremost, we expect to reinforce our track record of best-in-class operations in 2025. We will continue to operate our business the right way, the safe way, especially as we construct and commission Corpus Christi Stage 3.
Speaker Change: Over 5000 personnel are working to safely advance the project towards completion, and we are beginning to turn a significant number of systems over to commissioning and startup teams on train two.
Speaker Change: In addition, all equipment and materials on trains one through seven have been procured and delivered at this point mitigating stage III risks of import tariffs.
Speaker Change: We continue to target the first three trains to ramp up production by year end of this year and all seven trains to be substantially complete by the end of 2026.
Speaker Change: Please turn to slide seven where I'll highlight our strategic priorities for 2025.
Speaker Change: First and foremost we expect to reinforce our track record of best in class operations in 2025.
Speaker Change: We will continue to operate our business the right way to Safeway, especially as we construct and commission Corpus Christi stage III.
Jack Fusco: Our hard-earned reputation in the market as a safe and reliable operator is a significant competitive advantage, one which will serve all of us well for the long term, and is vital we maintain that advantage. Second, we are committed to getting Corpus Christi mid-scale trains 8 and 9 to FID. As I just mentioned, we look forward to receiving the remaining regulatory permits in the near future and are taking the steps necessary in preparation for an FID later this year. During 2024, we locked in approximately a half a billion dollars of long lead time equipment and other costs under limited notices to proceed with Bechtel related to trains 8 and nine, helping to ensure the project can maximize efficiencies on both cost and schedule. Finally, we intend to strategically pursue permits to ensure the long-term growth optionality of our Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi footprints.
Jack Fusco: Our hard-earned reputation in the market as a safe and reliable operator is a significant competitive advantage, one which will serve all of us well for the long term, and is vital we maintain that advantage. Second, we are committed to getting Corpus Christi mid-scale trains 8 and 9 to FID. As I just mentioned, we look forward to receiving the remaining regulatory permits in the near future and are taking the steps necessary in preparation for an FID later this year. During 2024, we locked in approximately a half a billion dollars of long lead time equipment and other costs under limited notices to proceed with Bechtel related to trains 8 and nine, helping to ensure the project can maximize efficiencies on both cost and schedule. Finally, we intend to strategically pursue permits to ensure the long-term growth optionality of our Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi footprints.
Speaker Change: Our hard earned reputation in the market as a safe and reliable operator is a significant competitive advantage, one which will serve all of us well for the long term and is vital to maintain that advantage.
Speaker Change: Second we are committed to getting Corpus Christi mid scale trains eight 9%.
Speaker Change: As I just mentioned, we look forward to receiving the remaining regulatory permits in the near future and are taking the steps necessary in preparation for an FID later this year.
Speaker Change: During 2024, we locked in approximately $5 billion of long lead time equipment and other costs under limited notices to proceed with <unk> related to trains 89, helping to ensure the project can maximize efficiencies on both cost and schedule.
Speaker Change: Finally, we intend to strategically pursue permits to ensure the long term growth optionality of.
Speaker Change: Of our Sabine pass and Corpus Christi footprints.
Jack Fusco: As I said at the beginning of my remarks, we are actively engaged with the new administration and are very encouraged by their early action and stated policy goals, prioritizing a clear, transparent, and durable permitting process. Given that improvement in the permitting environment for LNG projects here in the US, which is a stark contrast from just a few months ago, we have an opportunity and a strategic imperative to secure permits for significant growth at both Sabine and Corpus in order to de-risk the permitting requirements of future project development with line of sight to a total capacity of over 90 million tons per annum. We will, of course, always adhere to our disciplined capital investment parameters so that any incremental capacity is likely to be built under a phased approach while optimizing our brownfield advantages at both facilities.
Jack Fusco: As I said at the beginning of my remarks, we are actively engaged with the new administration and are very encouraged by their early action and stated policy goals, prioritizing a clear, transparent, and durable permitting process. Given that improvement in the permitting environment for LNG projects here in the US, which is a stark contrast from just a few months ago, we have an opportunity and a strategic imperative to secure permits for significant growth at both Sabine and Corpus in order to de-risk the permitting requirements of future project development with line of sight to a total capacity of over 90 million tons per annum. We will, of course, always adhere to our disciplined capital investment parameters so that any incremental capacity is likely to be built under a phased approach while optimizing our brownfield advantages at both facilities.
Speaker Change: As I said at the beginning of my remarks, we are actively engaged with the new administration and are very encouraged by the early action and stated policy goals prioritizing a clear transparent and durable permitting process.
Speaker Change: Given that improvement in the permitting environment for LNG projects here in the U S, which is a stark contrast from just a few months ago, we have an opportunity and a strategic imperative to secure permits for significant growth at both Sabine and corpus in order to Derisk the permitting.
Speaker Change: <unk> of future project development with line of sight to a total capacity of over 90 million tonnes per annum.
Speaker Change: We will of course always adhere to our disciplined capital investment parameters. So that any incremental capacity is likely to be built under a phased approach while optimizing our brownfield advantages at both facilities.
Jack Fusco: While we have this window, we intend to aggressively pursue permits at both sites and give ourselves a path to potentially more than double our current operating capacity once permits and our creative economics align. I look forward to updating you all on these efforts in the coming quarters as they develop. With that, I'll now hand it over to Anatol to discuss the LNG market. Thank you all again for your continued support of Cheniere.
Speaker Change: But while we have this window, we intend to aggressively pursue permits at both sites and give ourselves a path to potentially more than double our current operating capacity once permits and a creative economics align.
Jack Fusco: While we have this window, we intend to aggressively pursue permits at both sites and give ourselves a path to potentially more than double our current operating capacity once permits and our creative economics align. I look forward to updating you all on these efforts in the coming quarters as they develop. With that, I'll now hand it over to Anatol to discuss the LNG market. Thank you all again for your continued support of Cheniere.
Speaker Change: I look forward to updating you on these efforts in the coming quarters as they develop.
Speaker Change: With that I'll now hand, it over to Anatol to discuss the LNG market. Thank you all again for your continued support of Cheniere.
Anatol Feygin: Thanks, Jack, and good morning, everyone. Before we turn to a discussion of the markets, I'd like to acknowledge the constructive progress made in recent weeks towards restoring peace between Russia and Ukraine. While it remains a fluid situation and a peaceful solution in the near term is not a given, we're encouraged by the ongoing talks and hope resolution can be achieved soon. The Russia-Ukraine conflict over the last three years has had a tremendous impact on global energy markets, not only altering supply-demand balances, but also serving as a powerful reminder of the criticality of a secure and reliable energy supply portfolio. It has once again highlighted the vital role natural gas plays in the everyday lives of people and economies around the world. A resolution to the years-long war would likely result in the restoration of incremental Russian gas volumes into Europe over time.
Anatol Feygin: Thanks, Jack, and good morning, everyone. Before we turn to a discussion of the markets, I'd like to acknowledge the constructive progress made in recent weeks towards restoring peace between Russia and Ukraine. While it remains a fluid situation and a peaceful solution in the near term is not a given, we're encouraged by the ongoing talks and hope resolution can be achieved soon. The Russia-Ukraine conflict over the last three years has had a tremendous impact on global energy markets, not only altering supply-demand balances, but also serving as a powerful reminder of the criticality of a secure and reliable energy supply portfolio. It has once again highlighted the vital role natural gas plays in the everyday lives of people and economies around the world. A resolution to the years-long war would likely result in the restoration of incremental Russian gas volumes into Europe over time.
Anatol Fagan: Thanks, Jack and good morning, everyone before I turn to a discussion of the markets I'd like to acknowledge the constructive progress made in recent weeks towards restoring peace between Russia and Ukraine.
While it remains a fluid situation and the peaceful solution in the near term is not a given we're encouraged by the ongoing talks and hope resolution can be achieved soon.
Anatol Fagan: Russia, Ukraine conflict over the last three years has had a tremendous impact on global energy markets not only altering supply demand balances, but also serving as a powerful reminder of the criticality of a secure and reliable energy supply portfolio.
Anatol Fagan: It has once again highlighted the vital role natural gas plays in the everyday lives of people and economies around the world.
Anatol Fagan: The resolution to the year's long War would likely result in the restoration of incremental Russian gas volumes into Europe over time.
Anatol Feygin: We believe this would aid a rebalancing in the gas market and help support a more affordable and stable pricing environment conducive to long-term natural gas and LNG demand growth. Now please turn to slide nine. We'll start with a look back at 2024. The market remained relatively tight throughout last year due to limited growth in supply capacity, coupled with strong demand outside of Europe and continued geopolitical tensions throughout the year. Global LNG trade grew by less than 4 million tons year on year as project delays, Russian sanctions, and a lull in new projects coming online limited supply growth. While new projects started up in Russia, the US, Mexico, and the Congo, these projects contributed very little volume to the market due to starting up late in the year, or in the case of Russia, sanctions preventing cargoes from reaching markets.
Anatol Feygin: We believe this would aid a rebalancing in the gas market and help support a more affordable and stable pricing environment conducive to long-term natural gas and LNG demand growth. Now please turn to slide nine. We'll start with a look back at 2024. The market remained relatively tight throughout last year due to limited growth in supply capacity, coupled with strong demand outside of Europe and continued geopolitical tensions throughout the year. Global LNG trade grew by less than 4 million tons year on year as project delays, Russian sanctions, and a lull in new projects coming online limited supply growth. While new projects started up in Russia, the US, Mexico, and the Congo, these projects contributed very little volume to the market due to starting up late in the year, or in the case of Russia, sanctions preventing cargoes from reaching markets.
Anatol Fagan: We believe this would aid a rebalancing in the gas market and help support a more affordable and stable pricing environment conducive to long term natural gas and LNG demand growth.
Anatol Fagan: Now please turn to slide nine.
Anatol Fagan: We'll start with a look back at 24, the market remain relatively tight throughout last year due to limited growth in supply capacity, coupled with strong demand outside of Europe and continued geopolitical tensions throughout the year.
Anatol Fagan: Global LNG trade grew by less than 4 million tonnes year on year as project delays Russian sanctions and a lull in new projects coming on line and limited supply growth.
Anatol Fagan: While new projects started up in Russia, The U S Mexico and the Congo. These projects contributed very little volume to the market due to starting up late in the year or in the case of Russia sanctions, preventing cargoes from each in markets.
Anatol Feygin: As a result, the increased LNG consumption in Asia, as well as other markets such as Egypt and Brazil, was satisfied at the expense of Europe for most of the year. These conditions continued to support spot prices, which remained elevated, albeit thankfully lower than the unprecedented levels of 2022 as the post-crisis rebalancing gradually continued. TTF monthly settlement prices averaged around $10.90/MMBtu in 2024, over 20% lower than the 2023 average of about $13.70/MMBtu. Similarly, the settlement price for JKM averaged $11.80/MMBtu in 2024, over 25% lower versus 2023. Average Henry Hub settlement price was 17% lower in 2024 compared to 2023.
Anatol Feygin: As a result, the increased LNG consumption in Asia, as well as other markets such as Egypt and Brazil, was satisfied at the expense of Europe for most of the year. These conditions continued to support spot prices, which remained elevated, albeit thankfully lower than the unprecedented levels of 2022 as the post-crisis rebalancing gradually continued. TTF monthly settlement prices averaged around $10.90/MMBtu in 2024, over 20% lower than the 2023 average of about $13.70/MMBtu. Similarly, the settlement price for JKM averaged $11.80/MMBtu in 2024, over 25% lower versus 2023. Average Henry Hub settlement price was 17% lower in 2024 compared to 2023.
Anatol Fagan: As a result, the increased LNG consumption in Asia as well as other markets such as Egypt, and Brazil was satisfied at the expense of Europe for most of the year.
Anatol Fagan: These conditions continue to support spot prices, which remained elevated, albeit thankfully lower than the unprecedented levels of 22 is the post crisis rebalancing gradually continued.
Anatol Fagan: TF monthly settlement prices averaged around $10 90 in <unk> and 'twenty for over 20% lower than the 23 average of about $13 70.
Anatol Fagan: Similarly, the settlement price for <unk> averaged $11 80, <unk> and 'twenty for over 25% lower versus 'twenty three.
Anatol Fagan: Average Henry hub settlement price was 17% lower than 24 compared to <unk> 23.
Anatol Feygin: However, starting in late 2024, cold weather in Europe, coupled with the expiry of the gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine at the end of 2024, caused a rebound in European spot prices, with a narrowing and later reversal of the JKM TTF spread in order to attract cargoes into Europe. Let's turn to the next page and address this in further detail. In 2024, Europe's imports declined 19% year-over-year, down over approximately 22 million tons due to sluggish growth in the industrial sector, lower gas-fired power generation, and competing demand for volume outside the region.
Anatol Feygin: However, starting in late 2024, cold weather in Europe, coupled with the expiry of the gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine at the end of 2024, caused a rebound in European spot prices, with a narrowing and later reversal of the JKM TTF spread in order to attract cargoes into Europe. Let's turn to the next page and address this in further detail. In 2024, Europe's imports declined 19% year-over-year, down over approximately 22 million tons due to sluggish growth in the industrial sector, lower gas-fired power generation, and competing demand for volume outside the region.
Anatol Fagan: However, starting in late 'twenty for cold weather in Europe, coupled with the expiry of the gas transit agreement between Russia, and Ukraine at the end of 'twenty four plus the rebound in European spot prices with a narrowing and later a reversal of the JK mttf spread in order to attract cargoes into Europe.
Anatol Fagan: Let's turn to the next page and address this in further detail.
Anatol Fagan: In 2000 and for Europe's imports declined 19% year over year down over approximately 22 million tons due to sluggish growth in the industrial sector lower gas fired power generation and competing demand for volume outside the region.
Anatol Feygin: However, Europe's fundamentals improved in the second half of the year as regional balances reversed course, especially in Q4 when Europe turned tighter amid winter weather and the expiry date for Russian natural gas flows through Ukraine neared. While gas-fired generation fell 10% year-on-year, a drop in renewables output in Q4, along with persistent cold temperatures, resulted in more gas-fired generation, which rose 15% year-on-year during Q4. This accelerated gas withdrawals from underground storage, bringing inventory levels below the pre-war five-year average and roughly 17 BCM below the comparable period last year. This decline is equivalent to approximately 180 cargoes of LNG and is likely the reason we saw a swift call on cargoes into Europe towards the end of the year and into the beginning of 25.
Anatol Feygin: However, Europe's fundamentals improved in the second half of the year as regional balances reversed course, especially in Q4 when Europe turned tighter amid winter weather and the expiry date for Russian natural gas flows through Ukraine neared. While gas-fired generation fell 10% year-on-year, a drop in renewables output in Q4, along with persistent cold temperatures, resulted in more gas-fired generation, which rose 15% year-on-year during Q4. This accelerated gas withdrawals from underground storage, bringing inventory levels below the pre-war five-year average and roughly 17 BCM below the comparable period last year. This decline is equivalent to approximately 180 cargoes of LNG and is likely the reason we saw a swift call on cargoes into Europe towards the end of the year and into the beginning of 25.
Anatol Fagan: However, Europe's fundamentals improved in the second half of the year as regional balances reversed course, especially in the fourth quarter when Europe turned tighter amid winter weather and the expiry date for Russian natural gas flows through Ukraine neared.
Anatol Fagan: While gas fired generation fell 10% year on year drop in renewables output in the fourth quarter, along with persistent cold temperatures resulted in more gas fired generation, which rose 15% year on year during the fourth quarter.
Anatol Fagan: This accelerated gas withdrawals from underground storage, bringing inventory levels below the pre-war five year average and roughly 17 bcm below the comparable period last year. This decline.
Anatol Fagan: Is equivalent to approximately 180 cargoes of LNG and is likely the reason we saw a swift call on cargoes into Europe towards the end of the year and at the beginning of 'twenty. Five we believe this Paul is likely to continue through most of this year as LNG will be critical in mitigating the loss of Russian gas in Europe, and helping replenish inventories for next winter in the App.
Anatol Feygin: We believe this call is likely to continue through most of this year, as LNG will be critical in mitigating the loss of Russian gas in Europe and helping replenish inventories for next winter in the absence of other incremental supply alternatives. While Europe has had a tale of two halves in 2024, Asia consistently experienced growth across its markets for most of the year. Asia added over 20 million tons of LNG imports, up 8% year-on-year to 283 million tons. China was the most significant contributor to this growth, increasing 10% to 78 million tons. Not quite back to its pre-war peak, but very close. China's growth in LNG imports came as the country's overall gas demand grew roughly 8% across all major sectors, including transportation, which reached an estimated 15 to 16 million tons in 2024.
Anatol Feygin: We believe this call is likely to continue through most of this year, as LNG will be critical in mitigating the loss of Russian gas in Europe and helping replenish inventories for next winter in the absence of other incremental supply alternatives. While Europe has had a tale of two halves in 2024, Asia consistently experienced growth across its markets for most of the year. Asia added over 20 million tons of LNG imports, up 8% year-on-year to 283 million tons. China was the most significant contributor to this growth, increasing 10% to 78 million tons. Not quite back to its pre-war peak, but very close. China's growth in LNG imports came as the country's overall gas demand grew roughly 8% across all major sectors, including transportation, which reached an estimated 15 to 16 million tons in 2024.
Anatol Fagan: Absent some other incremental supply alternatives.
Anatol Fagan: While Europe has had a tale of two halves in 'twenty for Asia consistently experienced growth across its markets for most of the year.
Anatol Fagan: <unk> added over 20 million tonnes of LNG imports up 8% year on year to 283 million tons.
Anatol Fagan: China was the most significant contributor to this growth increasing 10% to 78 million tons.
Anatol Fagan: Not quite back to its pre war peak, but very close.
Anatol Fagan: China's growth in LNG imports came as the country's overall gas demand grew roughly 8% across all major sectors, including transportation, which reached an estimated 15 to 16 million tonnes and 24.
Anatol Feygin: Additionally, as is the case across most of the region, China experienced heatwaves this past summer, which helped boost power generation from its growing gas fleet, which added 19GW of capacity in 2024. This builds on the 10.3GW that were added in 2023 for a current total of 145GW of installed gas power generation capacity. In addition to CCGT capacity, the country installed an incremental 24 million tons per annum of regas capacity, an increase of 20%, and an additional 141 BCF, or 4 BCM, of underground storage capacity for an estimated total of 953 BCF or 27 BCM as of the end of 2024. All aligned with the country's goal to reach peak coal consumption this year, peak carbon emissions by 2030, and grow natural gas to 15% of primary energy.
Anatol Feygin: Additionally, as is the case across most of the region, China experienced heatwaves this past summer, which helped boost power generation from its growing gas fleet, which added 19GW of capacity in 2024. This builds on the 10.3GW that were added in 2023 for a current total of 145GW of installed gas power generation capacity. In addition to CCGT capacity, the country installed an incremental 24 million tons per annum of regas capacity, an increase of 20%, and an additional 141 BCF, or 4 BCM, of underground storage capacity for an estimated total of 953 BCF or 27 BCM as of the end of 2024. All aligned with the country's goal to reach peak coal consumption this year, peak carbon emissions by 2030, and grow natural gas to 15% of primary energy.
Anatol Fagan: Additionally, as was the case across most of the region, China experienced heat waves. This past summer, which helped boost power generation from its growing gas fleet.
Anatol Fagan: Each added 19 gigawatts of capacity in 'twenty for.
Anatol Fagan: This builds on the $10 three gigawatts that were added in 2003 for a current total of 145 gigawatts of installed gas power generation capacity in.
Anatol Fagan: In addition to <unk> capacity the country installed an incremental 24 million tonnes per annum of re gas capacity.
Anatol Fagan: An increase of 20% and an additional 141 bcf or four bcm of underground storage capacity for an estimated total of 953 Bcf or 27 bcm as of the end of 'twenty four all aligned with the country's goal to reach peak coal consumption. This year peak.
Anatol Fagan: Carbon emissions by 2030 and grow natural gas to 15% of primary energy.
Anatol Feygin: As we've noted on previous calls, we believe that the Asia Pacific region will continue to support LNG demand growth for decades to come, and 2024 provides added conviction to that thesis. The region accounted for nearly 45% of gas demand growth in 2024, which represents an all-time high globally, growing at a rate of 2.8% year-on-year, representing incremental demand of approximately 11 BCF a day. Let's move to the next slide. The global gas market has gained significant flexibility with the growth in LNG trade, which plays a key role in balancing the global gas market, evidenced by the avoidance of a severe energy crisis in Europe into 2024, and we believe it is likely to remain a key contributor to global energy supply security for decades to come.
Anatol Feygin: As we've noted on previous calls, we believe that the Asia Pacific region will continue to support LNG demand growth for decades to come, and 2024 provides added conviction to that thesis. The region accounted for nearly 45% of gas demand growth in 2024, which represents an all-time high globally, growing at a rate of 2.8% year-on-year, representing incremental demand of approximately 11 BCF a day. Let's move to the next slide. The global gas market has gained significant flexibility with the growth in LNG trade, which plays a key role in balancing the global gas market, evidenced by the avoidance of a severe energy crisis in Europe into 2024, and we believe it is likely to remain a key contributor to global energy supply security for decades to come.
Anatol Fagan: As we've noted on previous calls we believe that the Asia Pacific region will continue to support LNG demand growth for decades to come and 24 provides us added conviction to that thesis.
Anatol Fagan: The region accounted for nearly 45% of guests demand growth in 'twenty, four which represents an all time high globally growing at a rate of two 8% year on year, representing incremental demand of approximately 11 Bcf a day.
Speaker Change: Let's move to the next slide.
Speaker Change: The global gas market has gained significant flexibility with the growth in LNG trade, which plays a key role in balancing the global gas market evidenced by the avoidance of a severe energy crisis in Europe into 'twenty four and we believe it is likely to remain a key contributor to global energy supply security for decades to come.
Anatol Feygin: Throughout 2024, there were numerous and at times compounding factors that impacted the supply and demand of LNG and contributed to sustained elevated pricing in the short end of the curve last year. These include extreme weather events and shortfalls on the supply side. Amid few counterbalancing elements last year, these factors coincided to create major trade deficits in some markets. As I mentioned earlier, the start of new projects in 2024 did little to offset the supply deficits resulting from other project delays, system outages, and resource maturation, just to name a few. Depleting gas resources for LNG in legacy supply areas such as Egypt, Algeria, Trinidad, and even Australia have far outweighed gains in other areas such as Argentina, where domestic gas production growth helped reduce the country's imports of LNG last year.
Anatol Feygin: Throughout 2024, there were numerous and at times compounding factors that impacted the supply and demand of LNG and contributed to sustained elevated pricing in the short end of the curve last year. These include extreme weather events and shortfalls on the supply side. Amid few counterbalancing elements last year, these factors coincided to create major trade deficits in some markets. As I mentioned earlier, the start of new projects in 2024 did little to offset the supply deficits resulting from other project delays, system outages, and resource maturation, just to name a few. Depleting gas resources for LNG in legacy supply areas such as Egypt, Algeria, Trinidad, and even Australia have far outweighed gains in other areas such as Argentina, where domestic gas production growth helped reduce the country's imports of LNG last year.
Speaker Change: Throughout 2024, there were numerous and at times compounding factors that impacted the supply and demand of LNG and contributed to sustained elevated pricing in the short end of the curve last year.
Speaker Change: These include extreme weather events and shortfalls on the supply side.
A few counterbalancing elements last year. These factors coincided to create major trade deficits in some markets.
Speaker Change: As I mentioned earlier, the start of new projects in 'twenty four did little to offset the supply deficits, resulting from other project delays system outages and resource maturation just to name a few.
Speaker Change: Completing gas resources for LNG in legacy supply areas, such as Egypt, Algeria, Trinidad and even Australia have far outweighed gains in other areas, such as Argentina, where domestic gas production growth helped reduce the country's imports of LNG last year.
Anatol Feygin: In fact, Australia has taken Train Two at North West Shelf offline due to insufficient resources. We believe examples like these are structurally supportive of demand for LNG supply in the future, while the energy security provided by destination-flexible LNG further reinforces the prospects of LNG demand growth in general. The expected growth in the LNG market will require an additional estimated 230 MTPA of LNG supplies in the coming decade. A new supply from Cheniere, both under construction and in development, will not only help meet this demand, but also should help ensure improved availability, deliverability, and affordability of gas supply globally while offsetting some of the legacy of resource depletion and ensuring greater energy security to markets worldwide. With that, I'll turn the call over to Zach to review our financial results and guidance.
Anatol Feygin: In fact, Australia has taken Train Two at North West Shelf offline due to insufficient resources. We believe examples like these are structurally supportive of demand for LNG supply in the future, while the energy security provided by destination-flexible LNG further reinforces the prospects of LNG demand growth in general. The expected growth in the LNG market will require an additional estimated 230 MTPA of LNG supplies in the coming decade. A new supply from Cheniere, both under construction and in development, will not only help meet this demand, but also should help ensure improved availability, deliverability, and affordability of gas supply globally while offsetting some of the legacy of resource depletion and ensuring greater energy security to markets worldwide. With that, I'll turn the call over to Zach to review our financial results and guidance.
Speaker Change: And in fact, Australia has taken train two at northwest shelf offline due to insufficient resources.
Speaker Change: We believe examples like these are structurally supportive of demand for LNG supply in the future while the energy security provided by destination flexible LNG further reinforces the prospects of LNG demand growth in general.
Speaker Change: The expected growth in the LNG market will require an additional estimated 230 MTA of LNG supplies in the coming decade, and new supply from Cheniere, both under construction and in development will not only help meet this demand, but also should help ensure improved availability deliverability and affordability of gas supply globally.
Speaker Change: While offsetting some of the legacy of resource depletion and ensuring greater energy security to markets worldwide.
Speaker Change: With that I'll turn the call over to Zach to review, our financial results and guidance.
Zach Davis: Thanks, Anatol, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be here today to review our outstanding Q4 and full year 2024 results and key financial accomplishments, and to discuss our financial guidance for 2025. Turn to slide 13, please. For the Q4 and full year 2024, we generated net income of approximately $977 million and $3.25 billion. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.6 billion and $6.155 billion. Distributable cash flow of approximately $1 billion and $3.73 billion, respectively. With these results, we've now reported positive net income for the second full fiscal year.
Zach Davis: Thanks, Anatol, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be here today to review our outstanding Q4 and full year 2024 results and key financial accomplishments, and to discuss our financial guidance for 2025. Turn to slide 13, please. For the Q4 and full year 2024, we generated net income of approximately $977 million and $3.25 billion. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.6 billion and $6.155 billion. Distributable cash flow of approximately $1 billion and $3.73 billion, respectively. With these results, we've now reported positive net income for the second full fiscal year.
Zach Davis: Thanks, Anatol and good morning, everyone.
Zach Davis: Pleased to be here today to review, our outstanding fourth quarter and full year 2024, our results and key financial accomplishments and to discuss our financial guidance for 2025.
Zach Davis: Turning to slide 13 please.
Zach Davis: For the fourth quarter and full year 2024, we generated net income of approximately $977 million and $3 $25 billion.
Zach Davis: Consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1 6 billion.
Zach Davis: And six $105 5 billion.
Zach Davis: And distributable cash flow of approximately $1 billion.
Zach Davis: And $3 73 billion respectively.
Zach Davis: With these results we have now reported positive net income for the second full fiscal year.
Zach Davis: Compared to 2023, our Q4 and full year 2024 results reflect the moderation of international gas prices, as well as a higher proportion of our LNG being sold under long-term contracts. Lower contributions from optimization activities upstream and downstream of our facilities as the extreme market volatility continues to subside since 2022 and 2023. These impacts were partially offset by higher volumes of LNG delivered from our two sites during the year. During the Q4 and full year, we recognized in income 615 and 2,349 TBtu of physical LNG, which included 605 and 2,325 TBtu from our projects, and 10 and 24 TBtu sourced from third parties respectively.
Zach Davis: Compared to 2023, our Q4 and full year 2024 results reflect the moderation of international gas prices, as well as a higher proportion of our LNG being sold under long-term contracts. Lower contributions from optimization activities upstream and downstream of our facilities as the extreme market volatility continues to subside since 2022 and 2023. These impacts were partially offset by higher volumes of LNG delivered from our two sites during the year. During the Q4 and full year, we recognized in income 615 and 2,349 TBtu of physical LNG, which included 605 and 2,325 TBtu from our projects, and 10 and 24 TBtu sourced from third parties respectively.
Zach Davis: Compared to 2023, our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results reflect the moderation of international gas prices as well as a higher proportion of our LNG being sold under long term contracts and lower contributions from optimization activities upstream and downstream of our facilities.
Zach Davis: As the extreme market volatility continues to subside since 2022 and 2023.
Zach Davis: These impacts were partially offset by higher volumes of LNG delivered from our two sites during the year.
Zach Davis: During the fourth quarter and full year, we recognized income 615, and 2340, <unk> 90, Btu, a physical LNG, which included 605 and 2325 <unk> from our projects.
Zach Davis: And 10 in 2004, TVT sourced from third parties respectively.
Zach Davis: Approximately 92% and 96% of our LNG volumes recognized in the respective periods were sold in relation to term SPAs or IPM agreements. While we have many significant achievements to highlight from 2024, I'm particularly proud of the execution on our 20/20 Vision capital allocation plan throughout the year. In 2024, we deployed approximately $5.4 billion towards the key pillars of the plan, shareholder returns, accretive growth, and balance sheet management. As of year-end, we have allocated nearly $14 billion of our $20 billion target by 2026 that we intend to surpass as we continue to reduce our share count and enhance our capital returns while retaining financial flexibility to fund accretive growth across our platform.
Zach Davis: Approximately 92% and 96% of our LNG volumes recognized in the respective periods were sold in relation to term SPAs or IPM agreements. While we have many significant achievements to highlight from 2024, I'm particularly proud of the execution on our 20/20 Vision capital allocation plan throughout the year. In 2024, we deployed approximately $5.4 billion towards the key pillars of the plan, shareholder returns, accretive growth, and balance sheet management. As of year-end, we have allocated nearly $14 billion of our $20 billion target by 2026 that we intend to surpass as we continue to reduce our share count and enhance our capital returns while retaining financial flexibility to fund accretive growth across our platform.
Zach Davis: Approximately 92% and 96% of our LNG volumes recognized in the respective periods were sold in relation to term SBA or IPM agreements.
Zach Davis: While we have many significant achievements to highlight from 2024, and particularly proud of the execution on our 2020 vision capital allocation plan throughout the year.
Zach Davis: In 2024, we deployed approximately $5 4 billion towards the key pillars of the plan shareholder returns accretive growth and balance sheet management.
Zach Davis: As of year end, we have allocated nearly $14 billion of our $20 billion target by 2026 that we intend to surpass as we continued to reduce our share count and enhance our capital returns.
Zach Davis: Retaining financial flexibility to fund accretive growth across our platform.
Zach Davis: All of which should position us to achieve our target of generating over $20 per share of run-rate distributable cash flow for our shareholders. During 2024, we repurchased approximately 13.8 million shares for approximately $2.3 billion. Having repurchased over 10% of our outstanding shares since announcing our 20/20 Vision plan in September 2022, we are already over halfway to our stated initial target of 200 million shares outstanding. This progress led us to increase our share repurchase authorization last year by $4 billion through 2027, which we are currently working through opportunistically. We also declared $1.87 per common share in dividends for 2024 and paid over $400 million in dividends during the year.
Zach Davis: All of which should position us to achieve our target of generating over $20 per share of run-rate distributable cash flow for our shareholders. During 2024, we repurchased approximately 13.8 million shares for approximately $2.3 billion. Having repurchased over 10% of our outstanding shares since announcing our 20/20 Vision plan in September 2022, we are already over halfway to our stated initial target of 200 million shares outstanding. This progress led us to increase our share repurchase authorization last year by $4 billion through 2027, which we are currently working through opportunistically. We also declared $1.87 per common share in dividends for 2024 and paid over $400 million in dividends during the year.
Zach Davis: All of which should position us to achieve our target of generating over $20 per share of run rate distributable cash flow for our shareholders.
Zach Davis: During 2024, we repurchased approximately $13 8 million shares for approximately $2 3 billion.
Zach Davis: Having repurchased over 10% of our outstanding shares since announcing our 2020 vision plan in September 2022, we're already over halfway to our stated initial target of 200 million shares outstanding.
Zach Davis: This progress led us to increase our share repurchase authorization last year by $4 billion through 2027, which we're currently working through Opportunistically.
Zach Davis: We also declared $1 87 per common share and dividends for 2024 and paid over $400 million in dividends during the year.
Zach Davis: As previously announced with our June capital allocation update, we increased our quarterly dividend by approximately 15% to $2 annualized and intend to follow through with our guidance of 10% dividend growth annually through the end of this decade. We remain committed to our targeted payout ratio of approximately 20% over time, which will enable us to retain the financial flexibility essential to our comprehensive and balanced long-term capital allocation plan and disciplined self-funded growth objectives. During the Q4 and full year, we repaid $350 million and $800 million of outstanding long-term indebtedness, respectively.
Zach Davis: As previously announced with our June capital allocation update, we increased our quarterly dividend by approximately 15% to $2 annualized and intend to follow through with our guidance of 10% dividend growth annually through the end of this decade. We remain committed to our targeted payout ratio of approximately 20% over time, which will enable us to retain the financial flexibility essential to our comprehensive and balanced long-term capital allocation plan and disciplined self-funded growth objectives. During the Q4 and full year, we repaid $350 million and $800 million of outstanding long-term indebtedness, respectively.
Zach Davis: As previously announced with our June capital allocation update we increased our quarterly dividend by approximately 15% to $2 annualized and intend to follow through with our guidance of 10% dividend growth annually through the end of this decade.
Zach Davis: We remain committed to our targeted payout ratio of approximately 20% over time, which will enable us to retain the financial flexibility are central to our comprehensive and balanced long term capital allocation plan and disciplined self funded growth objectives.
Zach Davis: During the fourth quarter and full year, we repaid $350 million and $800 million of outstanding long term indebtedness respectively.
Zach Davis: During the year, we fully repaid the SPL 2024 notes and addressed our 2025 maturities across the complex with only $300 million of principal remaining on the SPL 2025 notes, which we plan to repay with cash on hand at maturity in March. During the year, we also issued the inaugural investment-grade bond at Cheniere Energy, Inc., following our blueprint for strategic refinancing, extending our maturity profile, and reducing interest expense, all while de-securing and de-subordinating our balance sheet. Looking ahead, you can expect more of this, while in the near term, we will continue to focus our debt paydown within the CQP complex in preparation for financing the SPL Expansion Project. The rating agencies continue to recognize our progress on balance sheet management through our corporate structure in 2024.
Zach Davis: During the year, we fully repaid the SPL 2024 notes and addressed our 2025 maturities across the complex with only $300 million of principal remaining on the SPL 2025 notes, which we plan to repay with cash on hand at maturity in March. During the year, we also issued the inaugural investment-grade bond at Cheniere Energy, Inc., following our blueprint for strategic refinancing, extending our maturity profile, and reducing interest expense, all while de-securing and de-subordinating our balance sheet. Looking ahead, you can expect more of this, while in the near term, we will continue to focus our debt paydown within the CQP complex in preparation for financing the SPL Expansion Project. The rating agencies continue to recognize our progress on balance sheet management through our corporate structure in 2024.
Zach Davis: During the year, we fully repaid the SPL 2024 notes and addressed our 2025 maturities across the complex with only $300 million of principal remaining on the SPL 2025 notes, which we plan to repay with cash on hand at maturity in March.
Zach Davis: During the year, we also issued the inaugural investment grade bond at Cheniere Energy, Inc. Following our blueprint for strategic refinancing extending our maturity profile and reducing interest expense all while D. Securing an D SIB ordinating our balance sheet.
Zach Davis: Looking ahead, you can expect more of this while in the near term we will continue to focus our debt paydown within the <unk> complex in preparation for financing the SPL expansion project.
Zach Davis: The rating agencies continue to recognize our progress on balance sheet management through our corporate structure in 2024 last year, we received our <unk> credit rating upgrades since 2021 and are now investment grade at every scenario issuer by all three rating agencies.
Zach Davis: Last year, we received our 22nd credit rating upgrade since 2021 and are now investment-grade at every Cheniere issuer by all three rating agencies. The continued recognition from the ratings agencies reflects our capital discipline, proven project execution, and operational excellence, and having developed and structured these projects to have robust credit metrics over the long term. During Q4 and full year, we funded approximately $220 million and $1.5 billion of CapEx on stage three, bringing total spend on the project to over $4.5 billion. We also deployed approximately $400 million in 2024 towards future growth and debottlenecking, including procurement for certain equipment for mid-scale trains 8 and 9, and continued development capital to progress the SPL expansion project.
Zach Davis: Last year, we received our 22nd credit rating upgrade since 2021 and are now investment-grade at every Cheniere issuer by all three rating agencies. The continued recognition from the ratings agencies reflects our capital discipline, proven project execution, and operational excellence, and having developed and structured these projects to have robust credit metrics over the long term. During Q4 and full year, we funded approximately $220 million and $1.5 billion of CapEx on stage three, bringing total spend on the project to over $4.5 billion. We also deployed approximately $400 million in 2024 towards future growth and debottlenecking, including procurement for certain equipment for mid-scale trains 8 and 9, and continued development capital to progress the SPL expansion project.
Zach Davis: The continued recognition from the ratings agencies reflects our capital discipline proven project execution and operational excellence and.
Zach Davis: And having developed and structured these projects to have robust credit metrics over the long term.
Zach Davis: During the fourth quarter and full year, we funded approximately $220 million and $1 5 billion of Capex on stage III.
Zach Davis: Bringing total spend on the project to over $4 5 billion.
Zach Davis: We also deployed approximately $400 million in 2024 towards future growth and debottlenecking, including procurement for certain equipment for mid scale trains eight and nine and continued development capital to progress the SPL expansion project.
Zach Davis: To date, we have funded over $300 million of the approximately half a billion dollars of costs that Jack mentioned we locked in for mid-scale trains eight, nine, and related infrastructure. With approximately $3 billion in consolidated cash and ample undrawn revolver and terminal liquidity throughout the Cheniere Complex, we expect to continue equity funding the Stage Three CapEx while remaining active on our opportunistic buyback program as we continue to manage our cash balances efficiently. Turn now to slide 14, where I will discuss our 2025 guidance and outlook for the year.
Zach Davis: To date, we have funded over $300 million of the approximately half a billion dollars of costs that Jack mentioned we locked in for mid-scale trains eight, nine, and related infrastructure. With approximately $3 billion in consolidated cash and ample undrawn revolver and terminal liquidity throughout the Cheniere Complex, we expect to continue equity funding the Stage Three CapEx while remaining active on our opportunistic buyback program as we continue to manage our cash balances efficiently. Turn now to slide 14, where I will discuss our 2025 guidance and outlook for the year.
Zach Davis: To date, we have funded over $300 million.
Jack Fusco: Of the approximately half a billion of costs that Jack mentioned, we locked in for mid scale trains eight and nine and related infrastructure.
Jack Fusco: With approximately $3 billion in consolidated cash and ample undrawn revolver and term loan liquidity throughout the Cheniere complex, we expect to continue equity funding the stage III capex, while remaining active on our opportunistic buyback program as we continue to manage our cash balances sufficiently.
Jack Fusco: Turning now to slide 14, where I will discuss our 2025 guidance and outlook for the year.
Zach Davis: Today, we are introducing our full-year 2025 guidance ranges of $6.5 to 7 billion in Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA and $4.1 to 4.6 billion in Distributable Cash Flow and the $3.25 to $3.35 per common unit of distributions from CQP. From 2024 actuals to the midpoint of 2025 guidance, 2025 is up 10%, 17%, and 2% respectively. Solidifying 2024 as a trough year with stage three startup driving higher financial performance expectations this year. Consistent with what we discussed on the Q3 call, these changes reflect our production forecast of 47 to 48 million tons of LNG in 2025, which contemplates our existing 9-train platform, plus our outlook for production from the first 3 trains at Corpus Christi stage three this year.
Zach Davis: Today, we are introducing our full-year 2025 guidance ranges of $6.5 to 7 billion in Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA and $4.1 to 4.6 billion in Distributable Cash Flow and the $3.25 to $3.35 per common unit of distributions from CQP. From 2024 actuals to the midpoint of 2025 guidance, 2025 is up 10%, 17%, and 2% respectively. Solidifying 2024 as a trough year with stage three startup driving higher financial performance expectations this year. Consistent with what we discussed on the Q3 call, these changes reflect our production forecast of 47 to 48 million tons of LNG in 2025, which contemplates our existing 9-train platform, plus our outlook for production from the first 3 trains at Corpus Christi stage three this year.
Jack Fusco: Today, we are introducing our full year 2025 guidance ranges of six 5% to 7 billion and consolidated adjusted EBITDA and four 1% to $4 6 billion and distributable cash flow and the $3 25 to $3 35 per common unit of distributions from <unk>.
Jack Fusco: From 2024 actuals to the midpoint of 2025 guidance 2025 is up 10%, 17% and 2% respectively. Solidifying 'twenty 'twenty four is a trough year with stage III startup driving higher financial performance expectations. This year.
Jack Fusco: Consistent with what we discussed on the <unk> call. These changes reflect our production forecast of 47 to 48 million tons of LNG in 2025, which contemplates our existing nine train platform plus our outlook for production from the first three trains at Corpus Christi stage three this year.
Zach Davis: Achieving first LNG in December and first cargo already this month, together with the commissioning of train one tracking on schedule, reinforces our conviction in our forecast of 47 to 48 million tons of LNG production, consistent with the October call. As such, our team has continued to forward sell some of our uncontracted volumes opportunistically. Today, we forecast approximately 1.5 to 2 million tons of unsold capacity for the remainder of 2025. Of the approximately 3 to 4 million tons of spot capacity for 2025 guided to on the last call, the CMI team has now locked in almost 2 million tons at attractive market net backs, up from over 1 million tons as of the last call.
Zach Davis: Achieving first LNG in December and first cargo already this month, together with the commissioning of train one tracking on schedule, reinforces our conviction in our forecast of 47 to 48 million tons of LNG production, consistent with the October call. As such, our team has continued to forward sell some of our uncontracted volumes opportunistically. Today, we forecast approximately 1.5 to 2 million tons of unsold capacity for the remainder of 2025. Of the approximately 3 to 4 million tons of spot capacity for 2025 guided to on the last call, the CMI team has now locked in almost 2 million tons at attractive market net backs, up from over 1 million tons as of the last call.
Jack Fusco: Achieving first LNG in December and first cargo already this month together with the commissioning of train one tracking on schedule.
Jack Fusco: Reinforces our conviction in our forecast of 47 to 48 million tons of LNG production consistent with the October call.
Jack Fusco: As such our team has continued to Ford sell some of our Uncontacted volumes Opportunistically.
Jack Fusco: And today, we forecast approximately one 5 million to 2 million tonnes of unsold capacity for the remainder of 2025.
Jack Fusco: Of the approximately three to 4 million tons of spot capacity for 2025 guided to on the last call. The C&I team is now locked in almost 2 million tonnes at attractive market and FX.
Jack Fusco: Up from over 1 million tons as of the last call.
Zach Davis: Given that exposure, we forecast that a $1 change in market margin would impact EBITDA by approximately $75 to 100 million for the full year. However, most of the remaining open volumes will be contingent on the timing and ramp-up of the first 3 trains of stage 3. Looking at curves today, net backs, while volatile, are hovering around $8 to 9 for the balance of 2025. The timing of our stage 3 trains coming online and the resulting incremental marketing volumes could drive significant variability in our expected earnings for 2025. As with the commissioning of our first 9 trains, we hope to improve the commissioning process for each subsequent train by employing lessons learned.
Zach Davis: Given that exposure, we forecast that a $1 change in market margin would impact EBITDA by approximately $75 to 100 million for the full year. However, most of the remaining open volumes will be contingent on the timing and ramp-up of the first 3 trains of stage 3. Looking at curves today, net backs, while volatile, are hovering around $8 to 9 for the balance of 2025. The timing of our stage 3 trains coming online and the resulting incremental marketing volumes could drive significant variability in our expected earnings for 2025. As with the commissioning of our first 9 trains, we hope to improve the commissioning process for each subsequent train by employing lessons learned.
Jack Fusco: Given that exposure, we forecast that a $1 change in market margin would impact EBITDA by approximately $75 million to $100 million for the full year.
Jack Fusco: However, most of the remaining open volumes will be contingent on the timing and ramp up of the first three trains of stage III.
Jack Fusco: Looking at curves today net backs, while volatile are hovering around eight to $9 for the balance of 2025.
Jack Fusco: So the timing of our stage three trains coming online and the resulting incremental marketing volumes could drive significant variability in our expected earnings for 2025.
As with the commissioning of our first nine trains we hope to improve the commissioning process for each subsequent train by employing lessons learned.
Zach Davis: We continue to expect the remaining mid-scale trains at stage three to reach substantial completion in 2026, at which point we have several million tons of new long-term contracts starting in 2026 and 2027, keeping our platform over 90% contracted with creditworthy counterparties and take-or-pay style cash flows and averaging approximately 95% contracted through the mid-2030s. As always, our result could be impacted by the timing of certain cargoes around year-end. As noted on prior calls, our DCF could be affected by changes in the tax code, particularly as it relates to any coming tax reform, the IRS transition guidance, and the final rules of the corporate alternative minimum tax.
Zach Davis: We continue to expect the remaining mid-scale trains at stage three to reach substantial completion in 2026, at which point we have several million tons of new long-term contracts starting in 2026 and 2027, keeping our platform over 90% contracted with creditworthy counterparties and take-or-pay style cash flows and averaging approximately 95% contracted through the mid-2030s. As always, our result could be impacted by the timing of certain cargoes around year-end. As noted on prior calls, our DCF could be affected by changes in the tax code, particularly as it relates to any coming tax reform, the IRS transition guidance, and the final rules of the corporate alternative minimum tax.
Jack Fusco: We continue to expect the remaining mid scale trains at stage III to reach substantial completion in 2026 at which point, we have several million tons of new long term contract starting in 2026, and 2027, keeping our platform over 90% contracted with creditworthy, counterparties and take or pay style cash flows.
Jack Fusco: And averaging approximately 95% contracted through the mid 2000 <unk>.
Jack Fusco: As always our results could be impacted by the timing of certain cargos around year end and as noted on prior calls our DCF could be affected by changes in the tax code, particularly as it relates to any coming tax reform the.
Jack Fusco: The IRS transition guidance in the final rules of the corporate alternative minimum tax.
Zach Davis: These changes can impact the timing and amount of our cash tax payments this year and going forward, but should be immaterial on an NPV basis and not impact our ability to generate over $20 billion of available cash through 2026. As Jack noted, in 2025, we are focused on bringing stage 3 online safely while supporting this year's financial results, progressing trains 8 and 9 to FID while Bechtel remains on site constructing and commissioning stage 3, and to take advantage of a constructive permitting window to provide line of sight to a total of over 90 million tons of permitted capacity across both sites, which will help solidify optionality for future brownfield growth long term.
Zach Davis: These changes can impact the timing and amount of our cash tax payments this year and going forward, but should be immaterial on an NPV basis and not impact our ability to generate over $20 billion of available cash through 2026. As Jack noted, in 2025, we are focused on bringing stage 3 online safely while supporting this year's financial results, progressing trains 8 and 9 to FID while Bechtel remains on site constructing and commissioning stage 3, and to take advantage of a constructive permitting window to provide line of sight to a total of over 90 million tons of permitted capacity across both sites, which will help solidify optionality for future brownfield growth long term.
Jack Fusco: These changes can impact the timing and amount of our cash tax payments this year and going forward, but should be immaterial on an NPV basis, and not impact our ability to generate over $20 billion.
Jack Fusco: Of available cash through 2026.
Jack Fusco: As Jack noted in 2025, we are focused on bringing stage three online safely while supporting this year's financial results.
Jack Fusco: Progressing trains 89%.
Jack Fusco: While <unk> remains on site constructing and commissioning stage III.
Jack Fusco: And to take advantage of a constructive permitting window to provide line of sight to a total of over 90 million tons of permitted capacity across both sites.
Jack Fusco: It helped solidify optionality for future brownfield growth long term.
Zach Davis: 2025 is already off to a great start, and we are pleased to see the meaningful progress at stage three, keeping that project ahead of schedule, which will help us deliver on EBITDA growth in 2025. We are encouraged by strong and improving fundamentals across our industry, but we also take comfort in the strength and resiliency of our highly contracted platform that has been demonstrated through multiple cycles, making us a trusted long-term partner to all of our stakeholders. As we remain focused on maintaining our track record of reliability, safety, and operational excellence, we will continue to serve as responsible, transparent stewards of capital in order to grow our leading infrastructure platform and enhance the long-term compounding value delivered to our stakeholders while delivering on our commitments by supplying our customers with reliable, affordable, and cleaner-burning LNG. That concludes our prepared remarks.
Zach Davis: 2025 is already off to a great start, and we are pleased to see the meaningful progress at stage three, keeping that project ahead of schedule, which will help us deliver on EBITDA growth in 2025. We are encouraged by strong and improving fundamentals across our industry, but we also take comfort in the strength and resiliency of our highly contracted platform that has been demonstrated through multiple cycles, making us a trusted long-term partner to all of our stakeholders. As we remain focused on maintaining our track record of reliability, safety, and operational excellence, we will continue to serve as responsible, transparent stewards of capital in order to grow our leading infrastructure platform and enhance the long-term compounding value delivered to our stakeholders while delivering on our commitments by supplying our customers with reliable, affordable, and cleaner-burning LNG. That concludes our prepared remarks.
Jack Fusco: 2025 is already off to a great start and we're pleased to see the meaningful progress at stage III keeping that project ahead of schedule.
Jack Fusco: Which will help us deliver on EBITDA growth in 2025.
Jack Fusco: We are encouraged by strong and improving fundamentals across our industry, but we also take comfort in the strength and resiliency of our highly contracted platform that has been demonstrated through multiple cycles.
Jack Fusco: <unk> is a trusted long term partner to all of our stakeholders.
Jack Fusco: As we remain focused on maintaining our track record of reliability safety and operational excellence. We will continue to serve as responsible transparent stewards of capital in order to grow our leading infrastructure platform and enhance the long term compounding value delivered to our stakeholders.
Jack Fusco: While delivering on our commitments by supplying our customers with reliable affordable and cleaner burning LNG.
Jack Fusco: That concludes our prepared remarks thank.
Zach Davis: Thank you for your time and your interest in Cheniere. Operator, we are ready to open the line for questions.
Zach Davis: Thank you for your time and your interest in Cheniere. Operator, we are ready to open the line for questions.
Speaker Change: Thank you for your time and your interest in Cheniere.
Speaker Change: Operator, we're ready to open the line for questions.
Operator: If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up to allow everyone an opportunity to signal. You may re-signal for any additional questions. Once again, that is star one, if you would like to ask a question. We'll now take our first question from Theresa Chen with Barclays.
Operator: If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up to allow everyone an opportunity to signal. You may re-signal for any additional questions. Once again, that is star one, if you would like to ask a question. We'll now take our first question from Theresa Chen with Barclays.
Speaker Change: I would like to ask a question. Please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speaker phone. Please make sure. Your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment.
Speaker Change: Thank you please limit yourself to one question and one follow up to allow everyone. An opportunity. This technology you may re signal for any additional questions. Once again that is star one if you would like to ask a question.
Speaker Change: We will now take our first question from Theresa Chen with Barclays.
Theresa Chen: Morning. Thank you for taking my questions. First, it's great to see the seamless execution, the tailwind behind your business. Going back to the comments on the recent geopolitical developments related to Russia and Ukraine, has this altered your view on the path forward for US LNG in particular? Have you seen any effects on your commercial discussions for long-term contracts, especially with European customers? Understanding that there's quite a bit going on over there between geopolitical developments, the weather, the depleting inventories, and so on. Would love to hear your thoughts here.
Theresa Chen: Morning. Thank you for taking my questions. First, it's great to see the seamless execution, the tailwind behind your business. Going back to the comments on the recent geopolitical developments related to Russia and Ukraine, has this altered your view on the path forward for US LNG in particular? Have you seen any effects on your commercial discussions for long-term contracts, especially with European customers? Understanding that there's quite a bit going on over there between geopolitical developments, the weather, the depleting inventories, and so on. Would love to hear your thoughts here.
Theresa Chen: Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions first it's great to see the seamless execution in the tailwind behind the business.
Theresa Chen: Going back to the comments on the recent geopolitical developments related to Russia and Ukraine.
Theresa Chen: Alternative can you on the path forward for U S. LNG in particular and have you seen any effects on your commercial discussions for a long term contract, especially with European customers and understanding that there's quite a bit going on over there between geopolitical developments, whether it's cleaning inventories and so on and so would love to hear your thoughts here.
Zach Davis: Theresa, thank you very much. This is Jack. I'll start, and I'll turn it over to Anatol. He can talk more specifically about his interactions with our customers. First, we pray for world peace. I mean, it has been very concerning these last three years of what's gone on just more broadly around the world, not only in the Ukraine. We pray that we can settle things down and get back to basics and let people live and enjoy their lives.
Jack Fusco: Theresa, thank you very much. This is Jack. I'll start, and I'll turn it over to Anatol. He can talk more specifically about his interactions with our customers. First, we pray for world peace. I mean, it has been very concerning these last three years of what's gone on just more broadly around the world, not only in the Ukraine. We pray that we can settle things down and get back to basics and let people live and enjoy their lives.
Jack Fusco: Theresa. Thank you very much this is Jack I'll start and I'll turn it over to Anatol. He can he can talk more specifically about his interactions with our customers. Our first we pray for world Peace.
Theresa Chen: We've.
Theresa Chen: It has been very concerning these last three years of what's gone on just more broadly around the world not only in the Ukraine. So we pray that that we.
Theresa Chen: We can settle things down and get back back to basics and let people.
Theresa Chen: Live and enjoy their lives.
Jack Fusco: As you know, we have a very highly contracted business model. We have anticipated a very volatile commodity market going forward. It's no different than what we've seen in the past. Whether it was COVID in 2020 or the Ukraine-Russia war in 2023 and beyond, we expect there to be a lot of volatility in a commodity-driven market. More specifically on our engagements with our customers, I think what's been extremely highlighted by this war is that energy security, energy diversity is necessary for any country's stability and growth. With that, Anatol, do you have any more to add?
Jack Fusco: As you know, we have a very highly contracted business model. We have anticipated a very volatile commodity market going forward. It's no different than what we've seen in the past. Whether it was COVID in 2020 or the Ukraine-Russia war in 2023 and beyond, we expect there to be a lot of volatility in a commodity-driven market. More specifically on our engagements with our customers, I think what's been extremely highlighted by this war is that energy security, energy diversity is necessary for any country's stability and growth. With that, Anatol, do you have any more to add?
Theresa Chen: So as you know we have a very highly contracted business model.
Theresa Chen: So we have anticipated a very volatile commodity market.
Theresa Chen: Going forward and it's no different than what we've seen in the past so whether it was COVID-19 and 2020 or the Ukraine, Russia and more.
Theresa Chen: 'twenty three and beyond.
Theresa Chen: We expect there to be a lot of volatility in our commodity driven market.
Theresa Chen: But more specifically on our engagements with our customers I think what's been extremely highlighted by this war is.
Theresa Chen: That energy security energy diversity is.
Theresa Chen: Necessary for any countries stability and growth.
Theresa Chen: So with that Anatol do you have any more to add thanks, Jack Thanks Theresa.
Anatol Feygin: Yeah. Thanks, Jack. Thanks, Teresa. You know, it is a backdrop of volatility and uncertainty. It is a market where Europe's call for additional LNG as inventories were depleted was heard loud and clear by the market. US sent a record amount of volume to Europe. 86% of our cargos in January went to Europe, and is helping resolve the current situation. But inventories, as you know, are still order of magnitude 25% lower than they were last year. You have multiple conflicting events playing out, as we commented, and Jack further commented. Hopefully, there's good progress on peace and the hot wars starts to ebb.
Anatol Feygin: Yeah. Thanks, Jack. Thanks, Teresa. You know, it is a backdrop of volatility and uncertainty. It is a market where Europe's call for additional LNG as inventories were depleted was heard loud and clear by the market. US sent a record amount of volume to Europe. 86% of our cargos in January went to Europe, and is helping resolve the current situation. But inventories, as you know, are still order of magnitude 25% lower than they were last year. You have multiple conflicting events playing out, as we commented, and Jack further commented. Hopefully, there's good progress on peace and the hot wars starts to ebb.
Speaker Change: It is a a backdrop of volatility and uncertainty.
Speaker Change: As a market, where europe's call for additional LNG as inventories were depleted.
Speaker Change: It was was heard loud and clear by the market U S sent a record amount of volume to Europe, 86% of our cargoes in January went to Europe.
Speaker Change: <unk> is helping resolve the current situation, but inventories as you know is still order of magnitude, 25% lower than they were last year you have multiple conflicting events playing out as we commented in Jack or further commented hopefully theres good progress on on peace and and the Hot Wars.
Speaker Change: Starts to add on top of that we have a very favorable geopolitical environment. Both on the U S side, where we have good support from the administration to continue our growth ambitions as well as from Europe, which on the one hand aims to end the conflict, but on the other hand as soon as next week, we'll likely announce cessation.
Anatol Feygin: On top of that, we have a very favorable geopolitical environment, both on the US side, where we have good support from the administration to continue our growth ambitions, as well as from Europe, which on the one hand, aims to end the conflict, but on the other hand, as soon as next week, will likely announce cessation of all Russian energy imports into Europe. All this results in a backdrop where the reliable and certain product that we offer with full destination flexibility, it's just hard to see how there's a better solution to navigate the uncertainties that are on the come. We have a number of good tailwinds and hope that that will be true for Europe writ large.
Anatol Feygin: On top of that, we have a very favorable geopolitical environment, both on the US side, where we have good support from the administration to continue our growth ambitions, as well as from Europe, which on the one hand, aims to end the conflict, but on the other hand, as soon as next week, will likely announce cessation of all Russian energy imports into Europe. All this results in a backdrop where the reliable and certain product that we offer with full destination flexibility, it's just hard to see how there's a better solution to navigate the uncertainties that are on the come. We have a number of good tailwinds and hope that that will be true for Europe writ large.
Speaker Change: Of all energy Russian LNG imports into Europe, all of this results in a backdrop, where the reliable and certain product that we offer with full destination flexibility.
Just hard to see how there is a better solution to to navigate the uncertainties that are on the come. So we have we have a number of good tailwind and hope that that will be true for Europe writ large.
Theresa Chen: Got it. Turning to the other side of the world, as the Trump administration targets the US's trade deficits with international trading partners, including top LNG importers in Asia, there seems to be more willingness to shore up gas supply with US LNG volumes. What do you make of this? Do you think this is largely political rhetoric, or would you expect an acceleration in commercial development from here complementing the structural demand growth from that area of the world?
Theresa Chen: Got it. Turning to the other side of the world, as the Trump administration targets the US's trade deficits with international trading partners, including top LNG importers in Asia, there seems to be more willingness to shore up gas supply with US LNG volumes. What do you make of this? Do you think this is largely political rhetoric, or would you expect an acceleration in commercial development from here complementing the structural demand growth from that area of the world?
Speaker Change: Got it.
Speaker Change: And turning to the other side of the world.
Speaker Change: Trump administration targets, the U S and some trade deficit, which international trading partners, including top LNG in quarters in Asia, there seems to be more willingness to adding tissue up gas supply U S. LNG volumes, what do you make of cash do you think that's largely political rhetoric or would you expect.
Speaker Change: An acceleration in commercial development from here complementing the structural demand growth from that area of the world.
Jack Fusco: You know, Theresa, this is very similar to what happened during President Trump's first term, when in November of 2017, I was invited to join the President and Wilbur Ross on a trip through Asia, and that resulted in our first long-term energy contract between China and Cheniere. I would expect that he's very focused on making the US energy dominant. I feel pretty confident he will follow through and help us all get more products sold and grow our business here domestically.
Jack Fusco: You know, Theresa, this is very similar to what happened during President Trump's first term, when in November of 2017, I was invited to join the President and Wilbur Ross on a trip through Asia, and that resulted in our first long-term energy contract between China and Cheniere. I would expect that he's very focused on making the US energy dominant. I feel pretty confident he will follow through and help us all get more products sold and grow our business here domestically.
Speaker Change: Yes Theresa this is.
Speaker Change: Very similar to what happened during president Trump's first term.
Speaker Change: Then in November of 2017, I was invited to join the President and Secretary Ross on a trip through Asia and that resulted in our first the first long term energy.
Speaker Change: Contract with with between China and Cheniere.
Speaker Change: I would.
Speaker Change: <unk> that is.
He is very focused on making the U S energy dominant and.
Speaker Change: I feel pretty confident he will falls through in and help us.
Speaker Change: All get.
Speaker Change: Get more products sold and grow our business here domestically.
Anatol Feygin: Yeah.
Anatol Feygin: Yeah.
Theresa Chen: Thank you.
Theresa Chen: Thank you.
Anatol Feygin: Theresa, just to add to Jack's comments, you know, we have this tremendous pull from Asia for gas in general and LNG. Unlike other LNG suppliers, the US does not do government-to-government transactions. That said, governments are very important in these discussions. Ultimately, there are commercial deals. Jack mentioned the one we executed with PetroChina in 2018. We've clearly shown the world the benefit of this destination flexibility, reliability, and, you know, it's no accident that we've had a number of repeat engagements with China and other customers in Asia, and we expect that to continue to be the case, having proved this concept and having executed and further built our relationships through these various cycles. Hard to say that these are not tailwinds for us.
Anatol Feygin: Theresa, just to add to Jack's comments, you know, we have this tremendous pull from Asia for gas in general and LNG. Unlike other LNG suppliers, the US does not do government-to-government transactions. That said, governments are very important in these discussions. Ultimately, there are commercial deals. Jack mentioned the one we executed with PetroChina in 2018. We've clearly shown the world the benefit of this destination flexibility, reliability, and, you know, it's no accident that we've had a number of repeat engagements with China and other customers in Asia, and we expect that to continue to be the case, having proved this concept and having executed and further built our relationships through these various cycles. Hard to say that these are not tailwinds for us.
Speaker Change: Yes.
Speaker Change: Just to add to <unk> comments.
Speaker Change: We have this tremendous pull from Asia for gas in general in LNG.
Speaker Change: Unlike other LNG suppliers.
Jack Fusco: <unk> does not do government to government transactions that said governments are very important in these discussions and ultimately they are commercial deals Jack mentioned, the one we executed with Petro China in 2018, we've clearly shown the world that the benefit of this destination flexibility reliability and.
Jack Fusco: It's no accident that we've had a number of repeat engagement with China and other customers in Asia, and we expect that to continue to be the case, having proved this this concept and having executed and further build our relationships through these various cycles. So.
Jack Fusco:
Jack Fusco: Hard to say that these are not tailwind for us.
Theresa Chen: Thank you very much.
Theresa Chen: Thank you very much.
Jack Fusco: Thank you very much.
Operator: We'll now take our next question from Justin Jenkins with Raymond James.
Operator: We'll now take our next question from Justin Jenkins with Raymond James.
Speaker Change: We will now take our next question from Justin Jenkins with Raymond James.
Justin Jenkins: Thanks. Morning, everyone. I guess maybe if I tack on to Theresa's question, and Jack, you mentioned this in your remarks, but maybe some more details on how the early days of the Trump administration have been versus your expectations on the regulatory and permitting backdrop, and maybe also how that potential for new capacity has played into contracting discussions as well.
Justin Jenkins: Thanks. Morning, everyone. I guess maybe if I tack on to Theresa's question, and Jack, you mentioned this in your remarks, but maybe some more details on how the early days of the Trump administration have been versus your expectations on the regulatory and permitting backdrop, and maybe also how that potential for new capacity has played into contracting discussions as well.
Justin Jenkins: Okay. Thanks, Good morning, everyone I guess, maybe a high tack onto a terrific question and Jack you mentioned in your remarks, but maybe some more details on how the early days of the Trump administration have been.
Justin Jenkins: Is your expectation on the regulatory and permitting backdrop and maybe also how that potential for new capacity has has played into contracting discussions as well.
Jack Fusco: Justin, it's been refreshing, quite honestly. When we produced first LNG at Stage 3 in December, the first email that came across my desk was from the then-nominated Secretary of Energy. Well, I won't.
Jack Fusco: Justin, it's been refreshing, quite honestly. When we produced first LNG at Stage 3 in December, the first email that came across my desk was from the then-nominated Secretary of Energy. Well, I won't.
Justin Jenkins: Justin it's been refreshing quite honestly so.
Justin Jenkins: When we produced.
Justin Jenkins: First LNG at stage III in December.
Justin Jenkins: The first E mail that came across my desk was from.
Speaker Change: Then nominated Secretary of energy.
Justin Jenkins: Sure.
Justin Jenkins: Yes.
Anatol Feygin: Chris Wright.
Anatol Feygin: Chris Wright.
Jack Fusco: Chris Wright. Then the second email came from the former Secretary of Energy, Dan Brouillette, who was with during President Trump's first administration. It helps. You know, these are very complicated, very capital-intensive projects. There's a lot of different moving parts at any given time to put together. Having regulatory certainty.
Jack Fusco: Chris Wright. Then the second email came from the former Secretary of Energy, Dan Brouillette, who was with during President Trump's first administration. It helps. You know, these are very complicated, very capital-intensive projects. There's a lot of different moving parts at any given time to put together. Having regulatory certainty.
Justin Jenkins: Well, Chris Chris right.
Justin Jenkins: But.
Speaker Change: And then the second email came from the former Secretary of energy Dan Boulet. It was.
Justin Jenkins: With.
Justin Jenkins: During President Trump's first administration.
Justin Jenkins: So it just it helps.
Justin Jenkins: These are very complicated very capital intensive projects.
Justin Jenkins: A lot of different moving parts at any given time to put together having regulatory certainty.
Anatol Feygin: Is very important. It's not everything that makes the project go, but it's very, very important in our timeline. The focus and communications have been very strong and very clear.
Jack Fusco: Is very important. It's not everything that makes the project go, but it's very, very important in our timeline. The focus and communications have been very strong and very clear.
Justin Jenkins: Is very important it's not it's not everything that makes the project go but it's very very important in our timeline. So the.
Justin Jenkins: The focused and communications have been very strong and very clear.
Justin Jenkins: Great. Thanks, Jack. I guess if I follow up on guidance here, it looks like 1 to 2 million tons of stage three volumes incorporated into EBITDA guidance. Is that mostly just train one and maybe some of train two getting into EBITDA for the year? Or how are you framing that volume sensitivity in 2025?
Justin Jenkins: Great. Thanks, Jack. I guess if I follow up on guidance here, it looks like 1 to 2 million tons of stage three volumes incorporated into EBITDA guidance. Is that mostly just train one and maybe some of train two getting into EBITDA for the year? Or how are you framing that volume sensitivity in 2025?
Justin Jenkins: Great. Thanks, Jack I guess.
Justin Jenkins: A follow up on guidance here it looks like one to 2 million tons of stage III volume incorporated in the EBITDA guidance is that mostly just train one and maybe <unk> trained do getting into EBITDA for the year or how are you framing that that volume sensitivity in 2025.
Zach Davis: Sure. Just to summarize for everybody, we've guided to 47 to 48 million tons of LNG this year, which would be the most by a few million tons that we've ever done. That's based on the foundation of the first nine trains at 45 million tons and then stage three coming online, getting us to 47 to 48. I'd say a little less than 1 million tons is expected to be commissioning, and that gets you to, like, over 46 to 47 million tons. To get to the high end of that range, basically, we're going to need three trains up and running, and pretty much fully there by early in the Q4 of the year.
Zach Davis: Sure. Just to summarize for everybody, we've guided to 47 to 48 million tons of LNG this year, which would be the most by a few million tons that we've ever done. That's based on the foundation of the first nine trains at 45 million tons and then stage three coming online, getting us to 47 to 48. I'd say a little less than 1 million tons is expected to be commissioning, and that gets you to, like, over 46 to 47 million tons. To get to the high end of that range, basically, we're going to need three trains up and running, and pretty much fully there by early in the Q4 of the year.
Speaker Change: Sure Geoff just to summarize for everybody, we've guided to 47% to 48 million tons of LNG This year, which would be the most.
Speaker Change: By a few million tons that we've ever done that's based on the foundation of the first nine trains at 45 million tons, and then stage III coming online getting us to 47% to 48, I'd say, a little less than 1 million tons is expected to be as commissioning and that gets you to like over 46 to <unk> 47.
Speaker Change: <unk> tons.
Speaker Change: To get to the high end of that range basically we're going to need three trains up and running.
Speaker Change: And pretty much fully there by.
Speaker Change: Early in the fourth quarter of the year.
Zach Davis: To get to the low end of the range, basically that would mean only 2 trains basically hit substantial completion this year. Right now, we feel very good that we're in the middle of that range, and things are progressing well. But that's really the toggle between that 1 to 2 million tons of P&L operational production.
Zach Davis: To get to the low end of the range, basically that would mean only 2 trains basically hit substantial completion this year. Right now, we feel very good that we're in the middle of that range, and things are progressing well. But that's really the toggle between that 1 to 2 million tons of P&L operational production.
Speaker Change: And then to get to the low end of the range basically that would mean only two trains basically hit substantial completion this year right.
Speaker Change: Right now.
Speaker Change: We feel very good that we're in the middle of that range and things are progressing well.
Speaker Change: That's really the toggle between that one to 2 million tons of P&L operational production.
Justin Jenkins: Perfect. Thanks, everyone.
Justin Jenkins: Perfect. Thanks, everyone.
Speaker Change: Perfect. Thanks, Sarah.
Operator: We'll take our next question from Bert Sansevero with Wolfe Research.
Operator: We'll take our next question from Bert Sansevero with Wolfe Research.
Speaker Change: We will take our next question from Brian Bedell with Wolfe Research.
Bert Sansevero: Hi, good morning. Can you please talk about optimization you've already seen year to date, whether it's shipping optimization with Asia-Europe spreads looking tight in certain periods or procurement from gas basis volatility?
Bert Sansevero: Hi, good morning. Can you please talk about optimization you've already seen year to date, whether it's shipping optimization with Asia-Europe spreads looking tight in certain periods or procurement from gas basis volatility?
Speaker Change: Hi, good morning.
Speaker Change: Can you please talk to optimization, you've already seen year to date, whether its shipping optimization with Asia Europe spreads looking tight in certain periods or procure banned from gas basis volatility.
Zach Davis: Sure. We won't get into all the details of optimization. As you know, as we think about guidance, and this is the initial guidance we've given for 2025, we don't leg into most of the optimization in the early guidance. That'll come with time as we continue to lock it in. The optimization comes from upstream of the plant, through our lifting margin and then downstream of the plant as we optimize with some third-party sourcing, and moving cargoes around and taking advantage of, at times, the arbitrage between JKM and TTF, and then obviously sub-chartering. As one would expect with sub-chartering, our shipping rates much lower year-over-year. In addition to that, with stage three coming online, our sub-chartering, like, portfolio or our chartering book is less.
Zach Davis: Sure. We won't get into all the details of optimization. As you know, as we think about guidance, and this is the initial guidance we've given for 2025, we don't leg into most of the optimization in the early guidance. That'll come with time as we continue to lock it in. The optimization comes from upstream of the plant, through our lifting margin and then downstream of the plant as we optimize with some third-party sourcing, and moving cargoes around and taking advantage of, at times, the arbitrage between JKM and TTF, and then obviously sub-chartering. As one would expect with sub-chartering, our shipping rates much lower year-over-year. In addition to that, with stage three coming online, our sub-chartering, like, portfolio or our chartering book is less.
Speaker Change: Sure, we wont get into all the details of optimization and as you know as we think about guidance and this is the initial guidance was given for 2025.
Speaker Change: We don't leg into.
Speaker Change: Most of the optimization in the in the early guidance. So that will come with time as we continue to lock it in and the optimization comes from upstream of the plant through our lifting margin and then downstream of the plant as we optimize with some third party sourcing and moving cargos around and taking advantage of at times the arbitrage between JK M in TTS.
Speaker Change: And then obviously sub chartering.
Speaker Change: As one would expect with sub chartering our shipping rates much lower year over year. In addition to that with stage III coming online our length in our sub chartering like portfolio, our chartering book.
Speaker Change: Is less so I'd imagine that will be less of a driver of the optimization this year.
Zach Davis: I'd imagine that will be less of a driver of the optimization this year. It's fair to say we've already locked in over $100 million of optimization. To get to the upside of our guidance range, we're keen to try to lock in 200 more.
Zach Davis: I'd imagine that will be less of a driver of the optimization this year. It's fair to say we've already locked in over $100 million of optimization. To get to the upside of our guidance range, we're keen to try to lock in 200 more.
Speaker Change: But it's fair to say, we've already locked in over $100 million of optimization, but to get to the upside of our guidance range.
We're keen to try to lock in a couple of hundred more.
Bert Sansevero: Thanks for that. What are you seeing as far as pricing for long-term SPAs recently? Has there been any notable upward pressure as cost for new builds are rising?
Bert Sansevero: Thanks for that. What are you seeing as far as pricing for long-term SPAs recently? Has there been any notable upward pressure as cost for new builds are rising?
Speaker Change: Thanks for that.
Speaker Change: What are you seeing as far as pricing for long term Stds recently and has there been any notable upward pressure as costs for new bowls horizon.
Anatol Feygin: Yes. It is a competitive market, as you can imagine. We have a number of projects that of course have FID over the 2022-2023 period. As we've said on previous calls, the cost side of the equation is obvious to everyone, and we are at or above the top end of our historical range of $2 to 2.50. You know, for Cheniere's projects, we're confident that we can leverage our reliability and operational performance, having never missed a foundation customer cargo, and extract a premium from that market. That's why we're comfortable saying we're at or above the top end of that range. That is up meaningfully from where we were, let's say, 3 or 4 years ago.
Anatol Feygin: Yes. It is a competitive market, as you can imagine. We have a number of projects that of course have FID over the 2022-2023 period. As we've said on previous calls, the cost side of the equation is obvious to everyone, and we are at or above the top end of our historical range of $2 to 2.50. You know, for Cheniere's projects, we're confident that we can leverage our reliability and operational performance, having never missed a foundation customer cargo, and extract a premium from that market. That's why we're comfortable saying we're at or above the top end of that range. That is up meaningfully from where we were, let's say, 3 or 4 years ago.
Speaker Change: Yes so.
It is a competitive market as you can imagine we have a number of projects that that of course have deed over the 'twenty to 'twenty three period, but as we've said on previous calls that the.
Speaker Change: The cost side of the equation is obvious to everyone and we are at or above the top end of our historical range of 2% to $2 50.
Speaker Change: For Cheniere projects, we are confident that we can leverage our reliability and operational performance, having never missed a foundation customer cargo and extract a premium from that market.
Speaker Change: So thats why were comfortable saying were at or above the top end of that range that is up meaningfully from where we were let's say three or four years ago, but I.
Anatol Feygin: I would say it's fair to say that it is not commensurate with the cost pressures that we've seen in the market. As Zach will remind you, in order to move forward for us, we need to meet all of our investment parameters, and we have to use every brownfield advantage in our book to get to that hurdle.
Anatol Feygin: I would say it's fair to say that it is not commensurate with the cost pressures that we've seen in the market. As Zach will remind you, in order to move forward for us, we need to meet all of our investment parameters, and we have to use every brownfield advantage in our book to get to that hurdle.
Speaker Change: I would say, it's fair to say that it is not commensurate with the cost pressures that we've seen in the market and as Zach will remind you in order to move forward for us we need to meet all of our investment parameters and we have to use every brownfield advantage and our book to.
Speaker Change: To get to that hurdle.
Zach Davis: Just to add to that brownfield advantage, I mean, we already have Bechtel on site at Corpus, and we're keen to FID mid-scale 8 and 9 this year, which will just be 2 added trains. We have some plans to unlock more debottlenecking there to get closer to 60 million tons as a total portfolio. Then we did speak to the idea that we're going to take advantage of this constructive permitting window to get over 90 million tons. There's definitely flexibility to do it in phases. There's pretty good line of sight of first phases at both sites, to get at least a large-scale train or so, that is very brownfield, meaning no tanks, no pipelines, no berths.
Zach Davis: Just to add to that brownfield advantage, I mean, we already have Bechtel on site at Corpus, and we're keen to FID mid-scale 8 and 9 this year, which will just be 2 added trains. We have some plans to unlock more debottlenecking there to get closer to 60 million tons as a total portfolio. Then we did speak to the idea that we're going to take advantage of this constructive permitting window to get over 90 million tons. There's definitely flexibility to do it in phases. There's pretty good line of sight of first phases at both sites, to get at least a large-scale train or so, that is very brownfield, meaning no tanks, no pipelines, no berths.
Just to add to that brownfield advantage I mean, we already have bechtel onsite at corpus and we're keen to mid.
Speaker Change: Mid scale into nine this year.
Speaker Change: Which will just be two added trains in.
Speaker Change: And we have some plans to unlock more debottlenecking there to get closer to 60 million tons as a total portfolio and then we did speak to the idea that we're going to take advantage of this constructive permitting window to get over 90 million tons.
Speaker Change: But there's definitely flexibility there to do it in phases.
And there's pretty good line of sight of first phases at both sites.
Speaker Change: To get at least a large scale train.
Speaker Change: So.
Speaker Change: That is very brownfields, meaning no tanks, no pipelines know births and thats going to allow us to be cost competitive.
Zach Davis: That's gonna allow us to be cost competitive and allows even these SPA levels that are better than they had been, but maybe haven't inflated as much as things like labor have worked themselves out and put us in a really good position to continue to grow well beyond 60 million tons in the coming years.
Zach Davis: That's gonna allow us to be cost competitive and allows even these SPA levels that are better than they had been, but maybe haven't inflated as much as things like labor have worked themselves out and put us in a really good position to continue to grow well beyond 60 million tons in the coming years.
Speaker Change: Allows even these.
Speaker Change: These SBA levels that are better than they had been.
Speaker Change: But maybe havent inflated as much as as things like labor half.
Speaker Change: Work themselves out and put us in a really good position to continue to grow well beyond 60 million tons in the coming years.
Bert Sansevero: Thank you.
Bert Sansevero: Thank you.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Operator: We'll now take our next question from Jeremy Tonet with J.P. Morgan.
Operator: We'll now take our next question from Jeremy Tonet with J.P. Morgan.
Speaker Change: We will now take our next question from Jeremy Tonet with J P. Morgan.
Jeremy Tonet: Morning.
Jeremy Tonet: Morning.
Jeremy Tonet: Good morning.
Anatol Feygin: Morning, Jeremy.
Anatol Feygin: Morning, Jeremy.
Speaker Change: Good morning, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet: Anatol, thank you for all the, you know, helpful commentary. Just wanted to go back to that a bit, if I could, on the macro side. Seems like there's, you know, concern on Russian gas coming back into the marketplace and LNG supply in general coming, and you've touched on this a number of times in the call. But just wondering if you might be able to expand a bit more, I guess, with regards to how you see this transpiring over time. In our minds, you know, lower or even stable LNG prices have been helpful to incentivizing demand, particularly in Asia, which it seems to be the long-term growth avenue here. Just wondering if you could share some more thoughts along these lines.
Jeremy Tonet: Anatol, thank you for all the, you know, helpful commentary. Just wanted to go back to that a bit, if I could, on the macro side. Seems like there's, you know, concern on Russian gas coming back into the marketplace and LNG supply in general coming, and you've touched on this a number of times in the call. But just wondering if you might be able to expand a bit more, I guess, with regards to how you see this transpiring over time. In our minds, you know, lower or even stable LNG prices have been helpful to incentivizing demand, particularly in Asia, which it seems to be the long-term growth avenue here. Just wondering if you could share some more thoughts along these lines.
Anatol Fagan: Anatol. Thank you for all the helpful commentary just want to go back to that a bit if I could on the macro side it seems like the.
Speaker Change: Concern on Russian gas coming back into the marketplace and the LNG supply in general coming in you've touched on this a number of times in the call, but just wondering if you might be able to expand a bit more I guess with regards to how you see this transpiring over time.
Anatol Fagan: In our minds.
Anatol Fagan: Lower or even stable LNG prices have been helpful to incentivizing demand, particularly in Asia, which does seem to be the long term growth avenues here and just wondering if you could share some more thoughts along these lines.
Anatol Feygin: Thanks, Jeremy. Again, as we've commented, we yearn for peace, and we yearn for more moderate and stable economics of our product. You know, we can control to a large extent safety and reliability, but market will dictate the economics. You know, as you know, the market has. The gas market, for example, globally grew by almost 3% last year, but of course, LNG market didn't grow or grew 4 million tons off a over 400 million ton base. So the market needs more LNG. It needs that dispatched, and it needs to refill a number of markets that have been in essence starved of this product. We hope that that starts to play out over the coming years.
Anatol Feygin: Thanks, Jeremy. Again, as we've commented, we yearn for peace, and we yearn for more moderate and stable economics of our product. You know, we can control to a large extent safety and reliability, but market will dictate the economics. You know, as you know, the market has. The gas market, for example, globally grew by almost 3% last year, but of course, LNG market didn't grow or grew 4 million tons off a over 400 million ton base. So the market needs more LNG. It needs that dispatched, and it needs to refill a number of markets that have been in essence starved of this product. We hope that that starts to play out over the coming years.
Anatol Fagan: Thanks, Jeremy and again as as we've commented we earned for peace and we earned for more moderate and stable.
Anatol Fagan: Economics of our product, we can control to a large extent safety and reliability, but market will dictate the economics and.
Anatol Fagan: As you know the market has.
Anatol Fagan: The gas market for example globally grew by almost 3% last year, but of course LNG market didn't grow grew 4 million tons of over 400 million ton base. So the market needs more more LNG needs that dispatched and it needs to refill a number of markets that have been.
Anatol Fagan: In essence starved of this product and we hope that that starts to play out over the coming years. We've tried it out the number in the past of over 600 million tons and this is a historical number of non coincident demand by markets and the one thing that has of course played out over the last few years is the tremendous investment I mentioned, specifically China.
Anatol Feygin: We've trotted out the number in the past of over 600 million tons, and this is a historical number of non-coincident demand by markets. The one thing that has, of course, played out over the last few years is the tremendous investment. I mentioned specifically China, but you've seen this investment in gas generation, regas infrastructure, pipeline storage globally. Over 400 million tons of regas capacity will be added to the current, over 1,000 million tons by 2030. Those are just things under construction. How does Europe play out? Who knows? Right? You have this policy directive that's gonna come out that says no more Russian gas into Europe. On the other hand, again, we hope that peace is restored and flows are restored.
Anatol Feygin: We've trotted out the number in the past of over 600 million tons, and this is a historical number of non-coincident demand by markets. The one thing that has, of course, played out over the last few years is the tremendous investment. I mentioned specifically China, but you've seen this investment in gas generation, regas infrastructure, pipeline storage globally. Over 400 million tons of regas capacity will be added to the current, over 1,000 million tons by 2030. Those are just things under construction. How does Europe play out? Who knows? Right? You have this policy directive that's gonna come out that says no more Russian gas into Europe. On the other hand, again, we hope that peace is restored and flows are restored.
Anatol Fagan: But <unk> seen this investment in gas generation re gas infrastructure pipeline storage globally over 400 million tons of re gas capacity will be added to the current over 1000 million tonnes by by 2030 and those are just things under construction. So how does how does Europe play out who knows right.
Anatol Fagan: You have this this policy directive that's going to come out that says no more Russian gas into Europe on the other hand again, we hope that the pieces restored in flows are restored eye I will lean on our friends at <unk>, who are the largest suppliers of gas to the continent. These days and then estimate that.
Anatol Feygin: I will lean on our friends at Equinor, who are the largest suppliers of gas to the continent these days, in an estimate that once flows are resumed, they'll be well below the pre-war levels, but could get up to the range of 30 to 35 BCM, including a little bit on Nord Stream 2 through Ukraine, but highly unlikely, and we agree with this, through Poland. We think it's another relief valve. We think it's great for the market. The prices you've seen over the last few months into Europe are the highest that we've seen since the start of 2023. Once you take out the extreme highs of 2022 right after the war, very elevated. They had the desired response.
Anatol Feygin: I will lean on our friends at Equinor, who are the largest suppliers of gas to the continent these days, in an estimate that once flows are resumed, they'll be well below the pre-war levels, but could get up to the range of 30 to 35 BCM, including a little bit on Nord Stream 2 through Ukraine, but highly unlikely, and we agree with this, through Poland. We think it's another relief valve. We think it's great for the market. The prices you've seen over the last few months into Europe are the highest that we've seen since the start of 2023. Once you take out the extreme highs of 2022 right after the war, very elevated. They had the desired response.
Anatol Fagan: Once flows are resumed there'll be well below the pre war levels, but could get up to the range of 30 to 35, bcm, including a little bit on Nord stream, two through Europe, sorry through Ukraine, but highly highly unlikely and we agree with this through Poland. So we think it's another relief valve.
Anatol Fagan: We think it's great for the market the.
Anatol Fagan: The prices <unk> seen over the last few months into Europe are the highest that we've seen since two since the start of 'twenty. Three so once you take out the the extreme highs of 22 right. After the war a very elevated and they have the desired response, they drew a record amount of LNG into Europe, but inventories.
Anatol Feygin: They drew a record amount of LNG into Europe, but inventories are still 25 percentage points below a year ago. Every percentage point is about 10 cargoes. You don't have any flow through Ukraine now. You're at a huge deficit. Europe will continue to need LNG. If I can quote Equinor one more time, its estimate is an additional 350 cargoes of LNG. Again, what's the answer? Diverse, flexible portfolio that reliably shows up and serves the load that desperately needs gas.
Anatol Feygin: They drew a record amount of LNG into Europe, but inventories are still 25 percentage points below a year ago. Every percentage point is about 10 cargoes. You don't have any flow through Ukraine now. You're at a huge deficit. Europe will continue to need LNG. If I can quote Equinor one more time, its estimate is an additional 350 cargoes of LNG. Again, what's the answer? Diverse, flexible portfolio that reliably shows up and serves the load that desperately needs gas.
Anatol Fagan: We're still 25 percentage points below a year ago and every percentage point is about 10 cargos. So you don't have any flow through Ukraine now youre at a huge deficit Europe will continue to need LNG and if I can quote Ecuador, one more time.
Anatol Fagan: Its estimate is an additional 350 cargoes of LNG. So again whats the answer diverse flexible portfolio that.
Anatol Fagan: That reliably shows up and and serves the load that desperately needs gas.
Jeremy Tonet: Got it. That's very helpful there. If I could just turn to Zach quickly here on capital allocation. Just wondering, you know, we've seen others in midstream maybe de-emphasize the buyback side, but it seems like Cheniere has continued to kind of plow forward on that side and the share count reduction that's been talked about. At the same time, if we think about future growth, and we look at Corpus, the 2.5 years from FID to first LNG, no one has exceeded that speed to market. We see material contracts as signed, as you've discussed in the past, the permitting window as you've described, and just very attractive brownfield economics here. Just wondering how you think about balancing these sides.
Jeremy Tonet: Got it. That's very helpful there. If I could just turn to Zach quickly here on capital allocation. Just wondering, you know, we've seen others in midstream maybe de-emphasize the buyback side, but it seems like Cheniere has continued to kind of plow forward on that side and the share count reduction that's been talked about. At the same time, if we think about future growth, and we look at Corpus, the 2.5 years from FID to first LNG, no one has exceeded that speed to market. We see material contracts as signed, as you've discussed in the past, the permitting window as you've described, and just very attractive brownfield economics here. Just wondering how you think about balancing these sides.
Speaker Change: Got it Thats very helpful. There and then if I could just turn to Zack quick.
Speaker Change: Quick here on capital allocation.
Anatol Fagan: Just wondering.
Speaker Change: We've seen others in midstream maybe.
Speaker Change: Deemphasize the buyback side, but it seems like <unk> continued to kind of plow forward on that side and the share count reduction that's been talked about at the same time, if we think about future growth and we look at corpus that two and a half years from FY <unk> to first LNG no one has exceeded that speed to market.
Speaker Change: See material contracts signed as you've discussed in the past.
Speaker Change: Permitting window as you've described and just very attractive brownfield economics here and so just wondering how you think about balancing the sides. It seems like.
Jeremy Tonet: It seems like some more growth could be coming into the plan sooner given these factors. Just wondering if you could share your thoughts on this.
Jeremy Tonet: It seems like some more growth could be coming into the plan sooner given these factors. Just wondering if you could share your thoughts on this.
Speaker Change: Some more growth could be coming into the plant sooner given these factors just wondering if you could share your thoughts on that.
Zach Davis: Sure. Thanks for all that. I'd say we're also targeting substantial completion of the first train inside of 3 years. Not just first LNG in 2.5, which we're pretty excited about. I think it comes back to the fact that I'm not sure we have many peers in our business that have the cash flow or operation maturity level that we have. So we're in a position now where we're going to have a relatively big CapEx year, right? We're not yet on the home stretch of stage three, but we're gonna have, like, $1.5 billion of unlevered CapEx there. We plan to FID mid-scale eight to nine. That could be around $800 million of CapEx this year.
Zach Davis: Sure. Thanks for all that. I'd say we're also targeting substantial completion of the first train inside of 3 years. Not just first LNG in 2.5, which we're pretty excited about. I think it comes back to the fact that I'm not sure we have many peers in our business that have the cash flow or operation maturity level that we have. So we're in a position now where we're going to have a relatively big CapEx year, right? We're not yet on the home stretch of stage three, but we're gonna have, like, $1.5 billion of unlevered CapEx there. We plan to FID mid-scale eight to nine. That could be around $800 million of CapEx this year.
Speaker Change: Sure. Thanks for all that in and I'd say were also targeting <unk>.
Speaker Change: Substantial completion of the first train inside of three years.
Speaker Change: And then not just first LNG in two and a half which we're pretty excited about.
Speaker Change: I think it comes back to the fact that I am not sure we have.
Speaker Change: Many peers in our business that have the cash flow our operation maturity level that we have.
Speaker Change: So we're in a position now where we're going to have a relatively big capex year right.
Speaker Change: We're not yet on the home stretch of stage III, but we're going to have like a 1 billion and a half unlevered capex, there and we plan to.
Speaker Change: The mid scale, eight or nine that could be around $800 million of capex. This year. So we're talking about well over $2 billion.
Zach Davis: We're talking about well over $2 billion. At the same time, we have over $3 billion of cash on the balance sheet, and we have an over $3 billion term loan still available to us to draw as we see fit in the coming years. What you can expect is more of the same. Basically this past year, we deployed $5.4 billion on capital allocation, and DCF was $3.7 billion, and we brought our cash balances down from mid $4 billion going into last year to low $3 billion. We're gonna continue to work that down by $1 billion or $2 billion in the next year or so, and eventually draw on that term loan.
Zach Davis: We're talking about well over $2 billion. At the same time, we have over $3 billion of cash on the balance sheet, and we have an over $3 billion term loan still available to us to draw as we see fit in the coming years. What you can expect is more of the same. Basically this past year, we deployed $5.4 billion on capital allocation, and DCF was $3.7 billion, and we brought our cash balances down from mid $4 billion going into last year to low $3 billion. We're gonna continue to work that down by $1 billion or $2 billion in the next year or so, and eventually draw on that term loan.
Speaker Change: At the same time, we have over $3 billion of cash on the balance sheet.
Speaker Change: And we have an over $3 billion term loan still available to us to draw as we see fit in the coming years.
Speaker Change: What you can expect is more of the same.
Speaker Change: Basically this past year, we we deployed $5 4 billion on capital allocation and DCF was $3 seven and we brought our cash.
Speaker Change: Cash balances down from mid 4 billion going into last year to low threes.
Speaker Change: We continue to work that down.
Speaker Change: By $1 billion or two.
Speaker Change: In the next year or so and eventually draw on that term loan. So you can expect us to.
Zach Davis: You can expect us to fund all this CapEx and still have more than enough capital to do more of the same, as it relates to the buyback. We'll grow the dividend by 10% as we guided to, and we'll pay down a healthy amount of debt again as we get ready for SPL expansion in the coming years. The $2.25 billion of buybacks in one year, that shouldn't be an anomaly. It'll just come down to how opportunistic we can be.
Zach Davis: You can expect us to fund all this CapEx and still have more than enough capital to do more of the same, as it relates to the buyback. We'll grow the dividend by 10% as we guided to, and we'll pay down a healthy amount of debt again as we get ready for SPL expansion in the coming years. The $2.25 billion of buybacks in one year, that shouldn't be an anomaly. It'll just come down to how opportunistic we can be.
Speaker Change: Fund all this capex and still have more than enough capital to do more of the same.
Speaker Change: As it relates to the buyback we will grow the dividend by.
Speaker Change: 10% as we guided to and.
Speaker Change: And we will pay down a healthy amount of that again as we get ready for SPL expansion.
Speaker Change: In the coming years.
But the $2 billion to $5 billion of buybacks in one year that shouldn't be an anomaly and it will just come down to how opportunistic we can be.
Justin Jenkins: Got it. That's helpful. I'll leave it there. Thanks.
Justin Jenkins: Got it. That's helpful. I'll leave it there. Thanks.
Speaker Change: Got it that's helpful I'll leave it there thanks.
Operator: Our next question will come from Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers.
Operator: Our next question will come from Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers.
Speaker Change: Your next question will come from Craig Shere with Tuohy brothers.
Craig Shere: Morning. Thanks for fitting me in. Zach, maybe I can pick up on Jeremy's question, some others. So we have some stubbornly high C Corp cash balances, you know, on the balance sheet, even after everything you've discussed, you know, buybacks, growth CapEx funding, you know, reducing debt. So, what do you see as the catalyst for ultimately bringing the C Corp cash balance down to a more sustainable, perhaps $1 billion? Is it maybe bringing the CQP distribution down to the base after you finally FID SPL Expansion? Or what should we be looking for here?
Craig Shere: Morning. Thanks for fitting me in. Zach, maybe I can pick up on Jeremy's question, some others. So we have some stubbornly high C Corp cash balances, you know, on the balance sheet, even after everything you've discussed, you know, buybacks, growth CapEx funding, you know, reducing debt. So, what do you see as the catalyst for ultimately bringing the C Corp cash balance down to a more sustainable, perhaps $1 billion? Is it maybe bringing the CQP distribution down to the base after you finally FID SPL Expansion? Or what should we be looking for here?
Craig Shere: Good morning, Thanks for fitting me in.
Speaker Change: Doug.
Speaker Change: I can pick up on jeremy's questions from others.
Speaker Change: So we have some stubbornly high.
Speaker Change: <unk> cash balance.
Speaker Change: On the balance sheet.
Speaker Change: Even after everything you've discussed.
Speaker Change: <unk> growth Capex funding.
Speaker Change: Reducing debt.
Speaker Change:
So.
Speaker Change: What do you see as the catalyst for ultimately, bringing all the C Corp cash balance.
Speaker Change: More sustainable perhaps $1 billion as it may be.
Speaker Change: During the CGP distribution down to the base.
Speaker Change: Finally, <unk> stage, five or what should we be looking for here.
Zach Davis: I think it's just going to be methodical as it was from 4.5 down to 3, and you'll see it come down even more so this year as we have over $2 billion of planned CapEx that we'd like to do without slowing down whatsoever the rest of capital allocation. I think folks can take comfort that, like, to say that the buyback program could be opportunistic is an understatement. Basically, in Q1 last year, when we actually had a lot of pressure on the stock, we bought back over 50% of that number for the year. If you just look at this coming quarter that we're in today, we probably bought back more in the first 2 weeks of February than we did all of January.
Zach Davis: I think it's just going to be methodical as it was from 4.5 down to 3, and you'll see it come down even more so this year as we have over $2 billion of planned CapEx that we'd like to do without slowing down whatsoever the rest of capital allocation. I think folks can take comfort that, like, to say that the buyback program could be opportunistic is an understatement. Basically, in Q1 last year, when we actually had a lot of pressure on the stock, we bought back over 50% of that number for the year. If you just look at this coming quarter that we're in today, we probably bought back more in the first 2 weeks of February than we did all of January.
Speaker Change: I think it's just going to be methodical as it was from four five down to three and Youll see it come down even more so this year as we have over $2 billion of planned capex that we'd like to do without <unk>.
Speaker Change: Slowing down whatsoever, the rest of the capital allocation I think folks can take comfort that I have to say that to say that the buyback program could be opportunistic is an understatement basically in Q1 last year. When we actually had a lot of pressure on the stock we bought back over 50% of that number for the year.
Speaker Change: If you just look at this coming quarter that we're in today, we probably bought back more in the first two weeks of February than we did all of January.
Zach Davis: You can see that'll continue to plug away. With the CapEx coming for stage three, mid-scale eight and nine, and we'll continue to develop Sabine Expansion and be in a position next year to start doing meaningful LNTPs, we're well-placed to almost have very similar capital allocation year-over-year, where it will be demonstrably higher than even the $4.1 to 4.6 billion of DCF we just guided to.
Zach Davis: You can see that'll continue to plug away. With the CapEx coming for stage three, mid-scale eight and nine, and we'll continue to develop Sabine Expansion and be in a position next year to start doing meaningful LNTPs, we're well-placed to almost have very similar capital allocation year-over-year, where it will be demonstrably higher than even the $4.1 to 4.6 billion of DCF we just guided to.
Speaker Change: So you can see that that will continue to plug away, but with the capex coming for stage III Midscale eight and nine.
Speaker Change: And we'll continue to develop Sabine expansion and be in a position next year to start doing.
Speaker Change: Meaningful <unk>.
Speaker Change: We're well placed to almost have very very similar capital allocation year over year, where it will be demonstrably higher than even the four one to $4 6 billion of DCF, we just guided to.
Craig Shere: Right. The growth kind of segues into my second question, and that's the prospective 90+ MTPA enterprise platform Jack alluded to in the opening comments. Presumably that assumes at least another 10 MTPA permitted at Corpus Christi after the 9 module trains. Am I doing that math right? What ultimately could that location hold?
Craig Shere: Right. The growth kind of segues into my second question, and that's the prospective 90+ MTPA enterprise platform Jack alluded to in the opening comments. Presumably that assumes at least another 10 MTPA permitted at Corpus Christi after the 9 module trains. Am I doing that math right? What ultimately could that location hold?
Speaker Change: Right.
Speaker Change: The growth kind of sideways.
Speaker Change: My second question.
Speaker Change: And Thats the perspective, 90, plus some tpa enterprise platform Jack alluded to in the opening comments.
Speaker Change:
Speaker Change: Presumably that assumes.
Speaker Change: At least another 10 million tpa permitted corpus Christi after the mining.
Speaker Change: Mining modular trains.
Speaker Change: Doing that math right and.
Speaker Change: What ultimately.
Speaker Change: <unk> the application hold.
Jack Fusco: As you know, Craig, we recently acquired 500 acres of property contiguous to our Corpus Christi site. There was a berth included in that purchase. The berth isn't LNG ready, but it gives us access, water access. On that site, we could probably, if on a clean sheet of paper, have somewhere around 20 million tons of additional LNG production. In addition to the 9 stage three trains and the 3 big trains.
Speaker Change: So as you know Craig we recently acquired 500 acres of property contiguous to our Corpus Christi site.
Jack Fusco: As you know, Craig, we recently acquired 500 acres of property contiguous to our Corpus Christi site. There was a berth included in that purchase. The berth isn't LNG ready, but it gives us access, water access. On that site, we could probably, if on a clean sheet of paper, have somewhere around 20 million tons of additional LNG production. In addition to the 9 stage three trains and the 3 big trains.
Speaker Change: There was a birth included in that and that purchase the birth isn't.
Speaker Change: LNG ready, but but it gives us access water access.
Speaker Change: So on that site, we could probably.
Speaker Change: On a clean sheet of paper have somewhere around.
Speaker Change: 20 million tonnes of additional LNG.
Speaker Change: Production.
Speaker Change: So in addition to the nine stay.
Speaker Change: Stage, three trains and the three big trades.
Zach Davis: That's why we just say over 90 million tons. The idea that we're not well-placed with brownfield growth at Sabine and in Corpus is just not even close to true. We're gonna give ourselves this window to get that optionality, and then we might just hit a bunch of singles and doubles and grow by a few trains in phases as economics align. It'll always come back to those economics and the fact that we can FID projects thanks to this brownfield advantage at 6 to 7 times CapEx to EBITDA.
Zach Davis: That's why we just say over 90 million tons. The idea that we're not well-placed with brownfield growth at Sabine and in Corpus is just not even close to true. We're gonna give ourselves this window to get that optionality, and then we might just hit a bunch of singles and doubles and grow by a few trains in phases as economics align. It'll always come back to those economics and the fact that we can FID projects thanks to this brownfield advantage at 6 to 7 times CapEx to EBITDA.
Speaker Change: Yes.
Speaker Change: That's why we just say over over 90 million tons, but the idea that we're not well placed with brownfield growth at Sabine.
Speaker Change: In Corpus is it's just not not even close to true. So we're going to give ourselves this window to to get that Optionality and then we might just hit a bunch of singles and doubles in.
Speaker Change: And grow by a few trains in phases as as economics align.
Speaker Change: I always come back to those economics, and the fact that we can project. Thanks to this brownfield advantage at 6% to seven times Capex to EBITDA.
Craig Shere: Great. Thank you.
Craig Shere: Great. Thank you.
Great. Thank you.
Operator: We'll now move to Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen.
Operator: We'll now move to Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen.
Speaker Change: We will now move to Jason Gabe Ellman with TD Cowen.
Speaker Change: Yes.
Jason Gabelman: Yeah. Hey, thanks for taking my question. I may have missed it earlier, but do you have a equity-to-debt funding target, maybe not for stage three in isolation as you continue to fund with equity, but stage three in combination with the mid-scale expansions?
Jason Gabelman: Yeah. Hey, thanks for taking my question. I may have missed it earlier, but do you have a equity-to-debt funding target, maybe not for stage three in isolation as you continue to fund with equity, but stage three in combination with the mid-scale expansions?
Speaker Change: Yeah. Thanks for taking my question.
Speaker Change: I may have missed it earlier, but do you have a equity to debt funding target maybe now for stage three in isolation as you continue to fund with equity, but stage three in combination with the mid scale expansions.
Zach Davis: Sure. Basically, as we think about FID of a project, it comes back to these economics that we want to earn a 10% unlevered return, which we back into being around 7x CapEx to EBITDA before leverage. Then adding leverage, bringing trains on early, taking advantage of margins that are over 250 are all upside to our shareholders that we don't bake in to justify FID of a project. That's how we plan to FID future projects. As it relates to stage three and mid-scale eight and nine, and obviously the cash balance that we have and the undrawn term loan, we plan to just use that term loan to fund a portion of the remainder of stage three and midscale eight and nine without having to raise incremental debt.
Zach Davis: Sure. Basically, as we think about FID of a project, it comes back to these economics that we want to earn a 10% unlevered return, which we back into being around 7x CapEx to EBITDA before leverage. Then adding leverage, bringing trains on early, taking advantage of margins that are over 250 are all upside to our shareholders that we don't bake in to justify FID of a project. That's how we plan to FID future projects. As it relates to stage three and mid-scale eight and nine, and obviously the cash balance that we have and the undrawn term loan, we plan to just use that term loan to fund a portion of the remainder of stage three and midscale eight and nine without having to raise incremental debt.
Speaker Change: Sure.
Speaker Change: Basically as we think about a project. It comes back to these economics that we want to we want to earn a 10% Unlevered return, which we back into being around seven times capex to EBITDA.
Speaker Change: Before leverage and then adding leverage bringing trains on early taking advantage of margins.
Speaker Change: That are over 250 are all upside to to our shareholders.
Speaker Change: That we don't bake in to justify.
Speaker Change: Of of a project.
Speaker Change: So that's that's how we plan to future.
Speaker Change: Future projects, but as it relates to stage three and mid scale at a nine and obviously the cash balance that we have and the Undrawn term loan we plan to just use that term loan.
Speaker Change: Two funds.
Speaker Change: A portion of the remainder of stage III and mid scale at a nine without having to raise incremental debt. It's the same as following through with debt Paydown. We just don't do debt paydown or equity funding a bit here and being.
Zach Davis: It's the same as following through with debt paydown. We just don't do debt paydown, and we're equity funding a bit here and being very efficient with our cash and interest costs overall in the interim. As we think about the Sabine expansion one day, that'll be inside an MLP that's even with a lower distribution, distributing out over $2 billion this year. We plan to continue to distribute that out. We plan to stay investment grade and still have billions of dollars of debt raised to fund that project in the interim. 50/50 is the plan. We don't have to do more than that. It aligns with all the other parameters of staying around under 4x leverage, even during construction going forward.
Zach Davis: It's the same as following through with debt paydown. We just don't do debt paydown, and we're equity funding a bit here and being very efficient with our cash and interest costs overall in the interim. As we think about the Sabine expansion one day, that'll be inside an MLP that's even with a lower distribution, distributing out over $2 billion this year. We plan to continue to distribute that out. We plan to stay investment grade and still have billions of dollars of debt raised to fund that project in the interim. 50/50 is the plan. We don't have to do more than that. It aligns with all the other parameters of staying around under 4x leverage, even during construction going forward.
Speaker Change: Very efficient with our cash.
Speaker Change: And interest costs overall.
Speaker Change: In the interim but as we think about the Sabine expansion one day that'll be inside an MLP that even with a lower distribution distributing out over $2 billion. This year.
Speaker Change: We plan to continue to distribute that out we plan to stay investment grade and and still have billions of dollars of debt raised to fund that project in the interim.
Speaker Change: 50, 50 is the plan, we don't have to do more than that it aligns with all the other parameters of staying around under four times leverage even during construction going forward.
Jason Gabelman: Okay, great. That was the only question for me. The rest of my questions have been answered. Thanks.
Jason Gabelman: Okay, great. That was the only question for me. The rest of my questions have been answered. Thanks.
Speaker Change: Okay, Great that was the only question for me the rest of my questions have been answered. Thanks.
Zach Davis: Thank you.
Zach Davis: Thank you.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Operator: We'll now take a question from Jean Ann Salisbury with Bank of America.
Operator: We'll now take a question from Jean Ann Salisbury with Bank of America.
Speaker Change: We will now take a question from Jean Ann Salisbury with Bank of America.
Jean Ann Salisbury: Hi. As you are ramping Corpus Christi Stage 3, your first foray into modular, can you speak to any learnings that you've had, positive or negative, around ramp-up time, ability to run over nameplate or anything else that you think is important?
Jean Ann Salisbury: Hi. As you are ramping Corpus Christi Stage 3, your first foray into modular, can you speak to any learnings that you've had, positive or negative, around ramp-up time, ability to run over nameplate or anything else that you think is important?
Speaker Change: Hi.
Speaker Change: As you are ramping corpus stage three your first foray into modular can you speak to any learnings that you've had positive or negative and ramp up time ability or I never nameplate or anything else that you think is important.
Speaker Change: Yeah.
Zach Davis: Wait, on the question, you threw me for a curve, Jean Ann. Did you say our first foray into modular?
Jack Fusco: Wait, on the question, you threw me for a curve, Jean Ann. Did you say our first foray into modular?
Speaker Change: Right.
Speaker Change: On the question you threw me for a curve Jinan did you say our first foray into modular.
Jean Ann Salisbury: I did, yes.
Jean Ann Salisbury: I did, yes.
Speaker Change: I did yes.
Zach Davis: Oh. You know, we stick build. As you know, the only difference between the way we do it with Bechtel and the way somebody does it modularly is if you're betting against American workers' productivity, and we tend to bet on America, and not on Italian workers. But
Jack Fusco: Oh. You know, we stick build. As you know, the only difference between the way we do it with Bechtel and the way somebody does it modularly is if you're betting against American workers' productivity, and we tend to bet on America, and not on Italian workers. But
Speaker Change: Oh, yes.
Speaker Change: Stick built.
Speaker Change: As you know the only difference between the way the way, we do it with <unk> and the way.
Speaker Change: Somebody does it modular layers. If you are betting against American workers productivity, and we tend to bet on America, and and not an Italian workers.
Jean Ann Salisbury: That's fair. I guess, maybe I'll revise instead of using the phrase modular to just the smaller size.
Speaker Change: And I guess, maybe I'll revise instead of using the phrase modularity, just a smaller and smaller size.
Jean Ann Salisbury: That's fair. I guess, maybe I'll revise instead of using the phrase modular to just the smaller size.
Zach Davis: The smaller size. Okay. It's gone very well. I was very pleased with Bechtel and my staff on first LNG before the end of last year. We're down now on Train 1 to a very small construction work group, basically doing control tuning and some cleanup work. I would expect us with next month to go operational with that train well ahead of schedule. Train 2 is going extremely well. We're fully staffed from a construction perspective on an accelerated schedule. We've turned over over 20% of the systems to commissioning. A lot of the systems that we had to bring online for Train 1 are already active, like the feed gas pipelines, the AGRU, the acid gas removal units, the flare, the LNG rundown line.
Jack Fusco: The smaller size. Okay. It's gone very well. I was very pleased with Bechtel and my staff on first LNG before the end of last year. We're down now on Train 1 to a very small construction work group, basically doing control tuning and some cleanup work. I would expect us with next month to go operational with that train well ahead of schedule. Train 2 is going extremely well. We're fully staffed from a construction perspective on an accelerated schedule. We've turned over over 20% of the systems to commissioning. A lot of the systems that we had to bring online for Train 1 are already active, like the feed gas pipelines, the AGRU, the acid gas removal units, the flare, the LNG rundown line.
Speaker Change: This smaller size okay. So.
Speaker Change: Sure.
Speaker Change: Sure.
Speaker Change: It's gone very well I was very pleased with backhaul and my staff.
Speaker Change: And first LNG before the end of last year.
Speaker Change: We're down now on train one to a very small construction.
Speaker Change: Construction work group basically doing control tuning and some cleanup work I.
Speaker Change: I would expect us.
Speaker Change: With.
Speaker Change: Next month to go operational with that train.
Speaker Change: Well ahead of schedule.
Speaker Change: And then train two is going extremely well.
We are fully staffed from a construction perspective.
Speaker Change: On an accelerated schedule.
Speaker Change: Where we've.
Speaker Change: We've turned over over 20% of the systems to commissioning a lot of the systems that we had to bring online for train one are already active like the feed gas pipelines.
<unk> the acid gas removal units.
Speaker Change: The flare the LNG rundown lines. So I would my expectation is that train 234 just.
Zach Davis: My expectation is that Train 2, 3, 4 just come on faster than what we experienced here with Train 1.
Jack Fusco: My expectation is that Train 2, 3, 4 just come on faster than what we experienced here with Train 1.
Speaker Change: Come on.
Speaker Change: Foster.
Speaker Change: And then what we've experienced here with with train one.
Jean Ann Salisbury: That's great. Thank you. As a follow-up, as you're contracting Sabine Pass Expansion, can you just give us your latest thinking about the minimum contract percentage of the portfolio that you would wanna pursue?
Jean Ann Salisbury: That's great. Thank you. As a follow-up, as you're contracting Sabine Pass Expansion, can you just give us your latest thinking about the minimum contract percentage of the portfolio that you would wanna pursue?
Speaker Change: That's great. Thank you and then as a follow up as your contracting Sabine pass expansion can you just give us your latest thinking about the minimum contract personnel, Jeff that portfolio.
Speaker Change: Yes.
Anatol Feygin: Yeah. Thanks, Jean Ann. It's Anatol. So as you know, we've had very good success on the SPL Expansion, where you've essentially contracted train 7 and have done now our second offtake agreement for train 8. We're very comfortable with those agreements and our partners there. As Zach already mentioned, we'll look to see how we phase the expansion and make the math work in terms of generating the types of returns that we require of ourselves. A very healthy position.
Anatol Feygin: Yeah. Thanks, Jean Ann. It's Anatol. So as you know, we've had very good success on the SPL Expansion, where you've essentially contracted train 7 and have done now our second offtake agreement for train 8. We're very comfortable with those agreements and our partners there. As Zach already mentioned, we'll look to see how we phase the expansion and make the math work in terms of generating the types of returns that we require of ourselves. A very healthy position.
Anatol Fagan: Yes, Thanks, Jean Ann It's Anatol.
As you know we've we've had very good success on the SPL expansion, where you've essentially contracted train seven and have done now are our second offtake agreement for train eight.
Speaker Change: We're very comfortable with those agreements and our partners there and Zac already mentioned, we will look to see how we phase the expansion in and make the math work in terms of generating the types of returns that we require of ourselves so very healthy position and as we've covered throughout this call.
Anatol Feygin: As we've covered, you know, throughout this call, there are some very robust tailwinds to the Cheniere platform and to US LNG as we work to be the key provider of these destination flexible solutions to the LNG consumers.
Anatol Feygin: As we've covered, you know, throughout this call, there are some very robust tailwinds to the Cheniere platform and to US LNG as we work to be the key provider of these destination flexible solutions to the LNG consumers.
Speaker Change: There are some very robust tailwind to to the Cheniere platform in two U S. LNG as we as we work to be the key.
Speaker Change: <unk> of these destination flexible solutions to to the LNG consumers and don't get US wrong, we take advantage of the torque by Debottlenecking the facility, having opened capacity, bringing trains on early before the contracts.
Zach Davis: Don't get us wrong, we take advantage of the torque by bottlenecking the facility, having open capacity, bringing trains on early before the contracts contractually begin. We are a contracted infrastructure company, and we build at six to seven times CapEx to EBITDA, and we make it through years just fine, like 2020, and do a hell of a lot better in years like 2022 and basically every year since. We're kind of building this to last, and we know we're getting the right risk-adjusted returns by staying around 90% on a portfolio basis. We don't do this for the benefit of the banks.
Jack Fusco: Don't get us wrong, we take advantage of the torque by bottlenecking the facility, having open capacity, bringing trains on early before the contracts contractually begin. We are a contracted infrastructure company, and we build at six to seven times CapEx to EBITDA, and we make it through years just fine, like 2020, and do a hell of a lot better in years like 2022 and basically every year since. We're kind of building this to last, and we know we're getting the right risk-adjusted returns by staying around 90% on a portfolio basis. We don't do this for the benefit of the banks.
Speaker Change: Contractually begin.
Speaker Change: But we are contracted infrastructure company.
Speaker Change: And we build at 6% to seven times Capex to EBITDA.
Speaker Change: And we make it through years, just fine like 2020.
Speaker Change: And do a hell of a lot better in years like 2022, and basically every year. Since so we're kind of building this to last and we know we're getting the right risk adjusted returns by staying around 90% on a portfolio basis.
Speaker Change: We don't do this for the benefit of the banks, we do this for the standard that we've held the company too and how we compare everything to just buying back more stock and letting shareholders just doing more of Sabine and corpus that way.
Zach Davis: We do this for the standard that we've held the company to and how we compare everything to just buying back more stock and letting shareholders just own more of Sabine and Corpus that way.
Jack Fusco: We do this for the standard that we've held the company to and how we compare everything to just buying back more stock and letting shareholders just own more of Sabine and Corpus that way.
Jean Ann Salisbury: Great. Thanks. I'll leave it there.
Jean Ann Salisbury: Great. Thanks. I'll leave it there.
Speaker Change: Great. Thanks, I'll leave at that.
Operator: We'll now take our last question from John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.
Operator: We'll now take our last question from John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.
Speaker Change: We will now take our last question from John Mccain with Goldman Sachs.
Speaker 15: Hey, guys. Thanks for the time. Just a quick one from me. I think previously you talked about Sabine potentially being a 2026 FID. Understand we're kind of moving towards maybe less than twenty all at once and maybe a kind of one train at first with the brownfield economics. Can you sort of walk us through what your process on timing could look like there?
John Mackay: Hey, guys. Thanks for the time. Just a quick one from me. I think previously you talked about Sabine potentially being a 2026 FID. Understand we're kind of moving towards maybe less than twenty all at once and maybe a kind of one train at first with the brownfield economics. Can you sort of walk us through what your process on timing could look like there?
John Mccain: Hey, guys. Thanks for the time, just a quick one for me.
John Mccain: I think previously you talked about Sabine potentially being a 2026.
Speaker Change: I understand.
Speaker Change: Kind of moving towards maybe less of 'twenty all at once and maybe.
Speaker Change: One train at first with the brownfield economics.
Maybe walk us through what your process on timing could look like there.
Zach Davis: I would say it's at the earliest late 2026, maybe even or more likely 2027, because what's most important right now is this permitting window and understanding the art of the possible at both of our sites to get to 90+ million tons over time. We're going to work on that permitting process and make sure that we tee ourselves up, not just for a super brownfield phase one, but for the ability to get to 15 to 20 million tons over time. If that forces us to FID in 2027, so be it, because it's most important that we have that optionality long term. With that said, we're already spending money on the development of Sabine expansion, and I could see us starting LNTPs next year on Sabine expansion.
Zach Davis: I would say it's at the earliest late 2026, maybe even or more likely 2027, because what's most important right now is this permitting window and understanding the art of the possible at both of our sites to get to 90+ million tons over time. We're going to work on that permitting process and make sure that we tee ourselves up, not just for a super brownfield phase one, but for the ability to get to 15 to 20 million tons over time. If that forces us to FID in 2027, so be it, because it's most important that we have that optionality long term. With that said, we're already spending money on the development of Sabine expansion, and I could see us starting LNTPs next year on Sabine expansion.
Speaker Change: I would say at the earliest late late 'twenty, six maybe even or more likely 2007, because what's most important right now.
Speaker Change: Is this permitting window and understanding the art of the possible at both of our sites to get to 90 plus million tons over time.
Speaker Change: So we're going to work on that permitting process and make sure that we tee ourselves up not just for a super brownfield phase one.
Speaker Change: The ability to get to 15 to 20 million tons over time, and if that forces us to <unk>.
Speaker Change: And in 2007, so be it because its most important that we have that optionality long term.
Speaker Change: With that said, we're already spending money on the development of Sabine expansion and I could see us starting to <unk> next year and this has been an expansion. So money is going to go out the door and we're going to start locking in costs and timeline.
Zach Davis: Money's gonna go out the door, and we're gonna start locking in costs and timeline in a positive way to allow that project to be as successful as every other project we've done to date.
Zach Davis: Money's gonna go out the door, and we're gonna start locking in costs and timeline in a positive way to allow that project to be as successful as every other project we've done to date.
Speaker Change: In a positive way to allow that project.
Speaker Change: Yet to be as successful as every other project we've done to date.
Speaker 15: Makes sense. Thank you.
John Mackay: Makes sense. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Okay makes sense. Thank you.
Operator: That concludes today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back to our presenters for any additional or closing comments.
Operator: That concludes today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back to our presenters for any additional or closing comments.
Speaker Change: That concludes today's question and answer session I would like to turn the conference back to our presenters for any additional or closing comments.
Jack Fusco: This is Jack. I just wanna thank everybody for all of your support and we look forward to seeing you in the very near future.
Jack Fusco: This is Jack. I just wanna thank everybody for all of your support and we look forward to seeing you in the very near future.
Jack Fusco: Yes. This is Jack I just wanted to thank everybody for all of your support and we look forward to seeing you in the very near future.
Operator: Once again, that does conclude today's conference. We thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator: Once again, that does conclude today's conference. We thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Speaker Change: And once again that does conclude today's conference. We thank you all for your participation you may now disconnect.
Jack Fusco: Yes.