Q1 2025 Ramaco Resources Inc Earnings Call
[music].
Operator: Good day and welcome to the Ramaco Resources, Inc.
Good day and welcome to the <unk> Resources, Inc. First quarter 2025 results conference call.
Operator: first quarter 2025 results conference call. All participants will be in the listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then 2. Please note, this event is being recorded.
All participants will be in the listen only mode.
Should you need assistance. Please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero.
After todays presentation there will.
Could be an opportunity to ask questions.
To ask a question you May press Star then one on your telephone keypad.
To withdraw your question. Please press Star then two.
Please note this event is being recorded.
Operator: I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeremy Sussman, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead. Thank you.
Speaker Change: I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeremy Sussman, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.
Randall Atkins: On behalf of Ramaco Resources, I'd like to welcome all of you to our first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. With me this morning is Randy Atkins, our Chairman and CEO, Chris Blanchard, our EVP for Mine Planning and Development, and Jason Fannin, our Chief Commercial Officer.
Jeremy Sussman: Thank you.
Speaker Change: On behalf of <unk> resources I'd like to welcome all of you to our first quarter 2025 earnings Conference call with me. This morning is Randy Atkins, our chairman and CEO, Chris Blanchard, our EVP for mine planning and development adjacent Fanning, our chief commercial officer.
Randall Atkins: Before we start, I'd like to share our normal cautionary statement. Certain items discussed on today's call constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements represent Ramaco's expectations concerning future events. These statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other factors, many of which are outside of Ramaco's control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and except as required by law, Ramaco does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
Speaker Change: Before we start I'd like to share our normal cautionary statement certain items discussed on today's call constitute forward looking statements within the meaning of the private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 <unk>.
Speaker Change: These forward looking statements represent <unk> expectations concerning future events. These statements are subject to risks uncertainties and other factors many of which are outside of <unk> control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward looking statements.
Speaker Change: Any forward looking statements speaks only as of the date on which it is made and except as required by law <unk> does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements whether as a result of new information future events or otherwise I'd also like to remind you that you can find a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures that we plan to discuss today in our press release.
Randall Atkins: I'd also like to remind you that you can find a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures that we plan to discuss today in our press release, which can be viewed on our website, www.ramacoresources.com.
Speaker Change: Please which can be viewed on our website www dot <unk> resources dotcom.
Randall Atkins: Lastly, I'd encourage everyone on this call to go on to our website and download today's investor presentation.
Speaker Change: Lastly, I'd encourage everyone on this call to go onto our website and download today's investor presentation with that said, let me introduce our chairman and CEO Randy Atkins.
Randall Atkins: With that said, let me introduce our Chairman and CEO, Randy Atkins. Good morning and thanks to everyone for joining the call. We have a lot of information to share this morning on both our Metco business as well as our Critical Minerals project. So let's start on the Metcol side. Despite the macro gloom on the overall market, we have continued to perform strongly on the operational side. The first quarter of 25 saw the continued decline in both U.S. and Australian met coal price. That decline mirrored our decline in earnings this quarter, despite our solid operational performance in the face of some difficult weather conditions.
Randy Atkins: Good morning, and thanks to everyone for joining the call.
Randy Atkins: We have a lot of information to share. This morning on both our met coal business as well as our critical minerals project.
Randy Atkins: So let's start on the met coal side.
Randy Atkins: Despite the macro gloom on the overall market. We have continued to perform strongly on the operational front the.
Randy Atkins: The first quarter of 'twenty five saw the continued decline in both U S and Australian met coal prices that decline mirrored our decline in earnings this quarter. Despite our solid operational performance in the face of some difficult weather conditions.
Randall Atkins: The same macro causation continues to negatively impact world steel markets. Again, that is the Chinese overproduction of steel combined with its below market sales into both the developed and developing world. Unfortunately, this is the same theme we have mentioned for the past few quarters. It's also a reality that may continue to be with us until there is a rebalancing in the world steel market. Even with this headwind on pricing, Ramaco's first quarter results continue to be strong from a number of metrics and by somewhat punching above our weight. While Jeremy will go into more detail, I'm proud to say that we enjoyed both the highest cash margins per ton and the highest realized sales price among our publicly traded peer group this quarter, all of whom have already reported Q1.
Randy Atkins: The same macro causation continues to negatively impact world steel markets.
Randy Atkins: Again that is the Chinese over production of steel combined with its below market sales into both the developed and developing world.
Randy Atkins: Unfortunately this is the same theme we have mentioned for the past few quarters.
Randy Atkins: It's also a reality that may continue to be with us until there is a rebalancing in the world steel markets.
Randy Atkins: Even with this headwind on pricing <unk> first quarter results continued to be strong from a number of metrics and by somewhat punching above our weight.
Randy Atkins: While Jeremy will go into more detail I'm proud to say that we enjoyed both the highest cash margins per ton and the highest realized sales price among our publicly traded peer group this quarter all of whom have already reported Q1 results.
Randall Atkins: Somewhat surprisingly, our adjusted EBITDA this quarter was also higher than the METCO results of three of our four larger public peers with far larger production than us. Our operational results were in line with our theme from the past few quarters. We can't control pricing, yet we do have some ability to manage production, cost, and sale. Again, my continued kudos to our operational and sales team on their excellent job on production cost, margins, and sales realization.
Randy Atkins: Somewhat surprisingly our adjusted EBITDA. This quarter was also higher than the met coal results of three of our four larger public peers with far larger production than us.
Randy Atkins: Our operational results were in line with our theme from the past few quarters.
Randy Atkins: We can't control pricing, yeah, we do have some ability to manage production cost and sales.
Randy Atkins: Again, my continued kudos to our operational and sales team on their excellent job on production cost margins and sales realizations.
Randall Atkins: to look at some of the specifics. Both company-wide and at Elk Creek, our mine production was at a quarterly record, with one million tons produced this quarter, which of course annualizes to four million tons. This led to the second straight quarter of our cash cost per ton sold coming in under $100. This puts us firmly in the first quartile of the cost curve among U.S. coal net producers. These positive operational metrics were achieved despite setbacks covering about four weeks of challenging weather conditions during the quarter. In our West Virginia mining areas, we had freezing temperatures in January, which was followed by extreme flooding in February.
Randy Atkins: To look at some of the specifics.
Randy Atkins: Both companywide and at Elk Creek, our mine production was at a quarterly record with 1 million tons produced this quarter, which of course annualize to 4 million tonnes.
Randy Atkins: This led to the second straight quarter of our cash cost per tonne coal coming in under $100.
Randy Atkins: This puts us firmly in the first quartile of the cost curve among U S coal met producers.
Randy Atkins: These positive operational metrics were achieved despite setbacks covering about four weeks of challenging weather conditions during the quarter.
Randy Atkins: In our West Virginia mining areas, we had freezing temperatures in January which was followed by extreme flooding in February these back to back weather events negatively impacted our quarterly production by roughly 150000 tenants.
Randall Atkins: These back-to-back weather events negatively impacted our quarterly production by roughly 150,000 tons.
Randall Atkins: As we look ahead at conditions for the balance of the year, based on where we currently see the markets, we are reducing both our 2025 production and sales guidance. Jeremy will discuss guidance in more detail. However, from a company perspective, we are not going to force tons into the spot market just for the sake of producing more coal in a weak market without a real return. Despite this downward guidance, we continue to retain the optionality to increase production if more positive market conditions evolve. If that occurs, we can pivot and increase both production and sales this year.
Randy Atkins: As we look ahead and conditions for the balance of the year based on where we currently see the markets. We are reducing both our 2025 production and sales guidance.
Jeremy Sussman: Jeremy will discuss guidance in more detail however.
Jeremy Sussman: However from a company perspective, we are not going to force tons into the spot market just for the sake of producing more coal and a weak market without a real return.
Jeremy Sussman: Despite this downward guidance, we continue to retain the optionality to increase production if more positive market conditions at all.
Jeremy Sussman: If that occurs we can pivot and increased both production and sales. This year. We could then exit the year above a $5 million per ton pardon me 5 million per annum run rate.
Randall Atkins: We could then exit the year above a $5 million per annum run rate.
Randall Atkins: Looking a bit further ahead, when we see positive longer-term market clarity, we're poised to also move forward to add an additional 2 million tons of new production. This would come from a million-and-a-half-ton deep mine expansion of our Maven Low Ball Complex, as well as the continuation of new mining into the Berwyn number three and four sections at our Berwyn Complex. This would add a combined roughly half a million tons. and it would take our overall production to approximately six and a half to seven million ton levels. It would take roughly a 24 to 36 month time frame from green lighting and cost approximately $100 million in growth capex spread over two to three years.
Jeremy Sussman: Looking a bit further ahead, when we see positive longer term market clarity. We're poised to also move forward to add an additional 2 million tons of new production.
Jeremy Sussman: This would come from a million and a half times deep mine expansion of our Maven low vol complex as well as the continuation of new mining into the Berwyn number three and four sections at our Berlin complex.
Jeremy Sussman: This would add a combined roughly half a million times.
Jeremy Sussman: And it would take our overall production to approximately six 5% to 7 million ton level.
Jeremy Sussman: It would take roughly a 24 to 36 month time frame from green lighting and cost approximately $100 million in growth capex spread over two to three years.
Randall Atkins: Market-wise, we are somewhat encouraged, having seen the Australian benchmark price rise about $20 per ton over the past month, despite generally muted world demand. We believe this increase is almost solely driven by global supply cuts as higher cost producers continue to struggle with negative margins in the current environment. And we sense that this supply contraction will continue to be a domestic theme in Central Appalachian Met markets as the year progresses. Because of this impending imbalance, once we see demand reemerge, the markets are poised to see upward and perhaps volatile upward price movement as the market adjusts to more normalized levels.
Jeremy Sussman: Market wise, we are somewhat encouraged having seen the Australian benchmark price rise about $20 per ton over the past month, despite generally muted world demand.
Jeremy Sussman: We believe this increase is almost solely driven by global supply cuts as higher cost producers continue to struggle with negative margins in the current environment.
Jeremy Sussman: And we sense that this supply contraction will continue to be a domestic theme in central Appalachian met markets as the year progresses.
Jeremy Sussman: Because of this impending imbalance once we see demand re emerge the markets are poised to see upward and perhaps bobble upward price movement as the market adjust to more normalized levels.
Randall Atkins: Now I would like to switch to a broad discussion on our Brookmine rare earth project. We are particularly encouraged by the steady progress we've made over the past few months since we last spoke. I can assure you we are approaching this transition opportunity to become a major critical mineral producer with a great deal of humility.
Jeremy Sussman: Now I would like to switch to a broad discussion on our Brookman Railroad project.
Jeremy Sussman: We are particularly encouraged by the steady progress we've made over the past few months since we last spoke.
Jeremy Sussman: Yeah.
Jeremy Sussman: I can assure you we are approaching this.
This transition opportunity to become a major critical mineral producer with a great deal of humility.
Randall Atkins: Having said that, we have been blessed almost by fate with owning a major domestic rare earth deposit of both exceptional size and quality. The deposit is found commingled in coal, and the adjoining strata, and also has little to no radioactive character. From a national security standpoint, we will never need to ship our oars to China or any other country for process. our carbon ore sourced rare earths and critical minerals will be 100% mined and refined in the USA.
Jeremy Sussman: Having said that we have been blessed almost by faith with owning a major domestic rare earth deposit are both exceptional size and quality.
Jeremy Sussman: The deposit is found co mingled in coal and the joining strata and also has a little to no radioactive character.
Jeremy Sussman: From a national security standpoint, we will never need to ship, our orders to China or any other country for processing our.
Jeremy Sussman: Our carbon or sourced rare earths and critical minerals will be 100% mined and refined in the USA.
Randall Atkins: I have used the expression that this is a Team USA project, and indeed it is. We are moving as fast and prudently as we can to make this mind a commercial reality. It has the potential to help address what is an acute national strategic supply shortfall of precisely the rare earths and critical minerals which we happen to possess.
Jeremy Sussman: I've used the expression that this is a team USA project and indeed it is.
Jeremy Sussman: We are moving as fast and prudently as we can to make this mine a commercial reality.
Jeremy Sussman: It has the potential to help address what is an acute nationals.
Jeremy Sussman: Strategic supply shortfall of precisely the railroad some critical minerals, which we happen to possess.
Randall Atkins: But perhaps most importantly, to start, I'm proud to announce that we will be bringing on board a person who will help guide us, not only through the development process. He will also help oversee the construction and operation of our processing and refining facility and eventually the overall day-to-day commercial operation of our critical minerals. We announce this morning that we have now added Mike Wolochuk to our senior management team as an executive vice president to oversee this project. Mike is joining us from Australia and leaving his current position as the Global Executive Director of the Flora Corporation's Critical Mineral Division.
Jeremy Sussman: But perhaps most importantly to start I'm proud to announce that we will be bringing on board a person and will help guide us not only through the development process. He will also help oversee the construction and operation of our processing and refining facility and eventually the overall day to day commercial.
Jeremy Sussman: <unk> of our critical mineral business.
Jeremy Sussman: We announced this morning that we have now added Mike wallet Shack to our senior management team as an executive Vice President to oversee this project.
Jeremy Sussman: Mike is joining us from Australia, and leaving his current position as the global executive director of the floor corporations critical mineral division.
Randall Atkins: He has over 30 years of experience in developing rare earth and critical mineral businesses in all parts of the world. He has been involved in every facet, be it geology, mining, processing, finance, and project execution. Even though we have not yet received the Fluor report, I feel you could view Mike's move to Ramaco from having served as the head of Fluor's entire worldwide critical mineral business as a strong indication of his confidence in our project.
Jeremy Sussman: He has over 30 years of experience in developing rare earth and critical minerals businesses in all parts of the world.
Jeremy Sussman: He has been involved in every facet via geology mining processing finance and project execution.
Jeremy Sussman: Even though we have not yet received the floor report I feel you could view Mike's moved or Amoco from having served as they had a floor as entire worldwide critical mineral business as a strong indication of his confidence in our project.
Randall Atkins: And these are indeed interesting times in the rare earth business. As many of you know, last month China added to its current bans of various critical mineral exports to the United States by adding new bans of terbium, dysprosium, and scandium. This comes on top of last year's export ban of gallium and manganese. By coincidence, these REEs and critical minerals, along with NDPR, are anticipated to make up over 95% of our revenue and cash flow, and constitute about 40% of the overall deposit. Indeed, we have been told by Fleur that the Brook Mine will be the only primary source mine in the world for germanium, gallium, and scandium.
Jeremy Sussman: And these are indeed interesting times in the rare Earth business.
Jeremy Sussman: As many of you know last month, China added to its current bands of various critical mineral exports to the United States by adding new bands of Tribune, Dysprosium and scandium.
Jeremy Sussman: This comes on top of last year's export ban of gallium.
Speaker Change: By coincidence. These are used in critical minerals, along with N V. P. R are anticipated to make up over 95% of our revenue and cash flow and constant at about 40% of the overall deposit.
Speaker Change: Indeed, we have been told by floor that the broke mine will be the only primary source mine in the world for germanium gallium and skandia.
Randall Atkins: Before I address some more specifics of what we are now doing, I would like to note some milestones since our last earning call on this subject. We have now completed most of the secondary round of third-party geological, chemical, and hydrometallurgical testing of our deposit. This has been a multi-year process, and it has not been made easier by the testing backlog we've encountered working with laboratories both in the U.S. and in Canada. The backlog in testing and delays in receiving results has been the primary reason that FLORA's primary preliminary economic analysis will now be produced by the end of June.
Speaker Change: Before I address some more specifics of what we're now doing I would like to note some milestones Linda our last earning call on this subject.
Speaker Change: We have now completed most of the secondary round of third party geology geological chemical and hydro metallurgical testing of our deposit.
Speaker Change: This has been a multiyear process and it has not been made easier by the testing backlog, we've encountered working with laboratories, both in the U S and in Canada.
Speaker Change: The backlog in testing and delays in receiving results has been the primary reason that floor is primary preliminary economic analysis will now be produced by the end of June.
Randall Atkins: Today, however, we have released the WEAR update to our Technical Exploration Report and have highlighted several of their findings in this quarter's earnings press. These findings focus on disclosing a range of the size and amount of the deposit, its breakdown by type of rare earth or critical mineral, and their individual concentrations measured as total rare earth oxide. Some specifics of the WEIR report are that at the high-end range, the amount of total rare earth oxide, or TRIO, is now estimated at 1.7 million tons. This includes the banned critical minerals of scandium, germanium, and gallium, which constitute roughly 300,000 tons, or 17% of the overall deposit.
Speaker Change: Today. However, we have released the weir update to our technical exploration report and have highlighted several of their findings in this quarters earnings presentation.
Speaker Change: These findings focus on disclosing a range of the size and amount of the deposit.
Speaker Change: Its breakdown by type of railroads are critical mineral and their individual concentrations measured as total rare earth oxide.
Speaker Change: Some specifics of the Weir report Earth are that at the high end range. The amount of total rare Earth oxide. Our trio is now estimated at 1.7 million tonnes. This includes the band critical minerals of scandium, germanium and gallium, which constitute roughly 300000.
Speaker Change: Tons or 17% of the overall deposit.
Randall Atkins: The deposit has an average concentration grade on an ash basis of between 450 to 570 parts per million, and a maximum grade of between 3,300 and 9,600 parts per million. Based on independent, conventional hydrometallurgic testing performed by Hazen Research and Flora, the primary and secondary levels of recovery of rareness are above 80%. The rates of recovery of REEs and selective critical minerals will undergo continuous further testing throughout the process, which is designed to optimize both the levels of recovery and the refinement techniques. We are also now engaged with several third parties at NETL in exploring some novel and unconventional processing techniques which may provide promising new avenues in refining.
Speaker Change: The deposit has an average concentration grade on an ash basis of between 450 to seven and 570 parts per million.
Speaker Change: And a maximum grade of between 3300 9600 parts per million.
Speaker Change: Based on independent conventional hydro mental metallurgical testing performed by Hazen research and floor.
Speaker Change: The primary and secondary levels of recovery of railroads are above 80%.
Speaker Change: The rates of recovery of our ease and selective critical minerals will undergo continuous further testing throughout the process, which is designed to optimize both the levels of recovery and the refinement techniques.
Speaker Change: We are also now engaged with several third parties and any T L and exploring some novel and unconventional processing techniques, which may provide a promising new avenues and refinement.
Randall Atkins: But at this level of conceptual testing that we are now at... in the process development, we regard these as strong recovery numbers. We will, of course, strive to further improve results as we proceed further through flow sheet refinement and optimization and through real-time processing at our future pilots. Based on current resource data and our planned processing capacity, the Burke Mine is projected to produce approximately 1,400 metric tons of critical mineral oxides per year from mining roughly 2.5 million tons of coal, which we also call carbon ore. For perspective, the U.S. consumes roughly 10,000 metric tons of REEs annually.
Speaker Change: But at this level of conceptual testing that we are now at.
Speaker Change: And the process development, we regard these as strong recovery numbers.
Speaker Change: We will of course drive to further further improved results as we proceed further through flow sheet refinement and optimization and through real time processing at our future pilot plant.
Speaker Change: Based on current resource data in our plan processing capacity. The broke mine is projected to produce approximately 1400 metric tons of critical mineral oxides per year from mining roughly two and a half million tons of coal, which we also call carbon or.
Speaker Change: For perspective, the U S consumes roughly.
Speaker Change: In metric tons of our used annually.
Randall Atkins: Of this oxide production, an estimated 560 metric tons, or roughly 40%, will include purified oxides of seven REs and critical minerals. These include neodymium, presidium, dysprosium, gallium, germanium, terbium, and scandium. Similarly, based on our current analysis, over 95% of expected revenue and cash flow would be derived from this basket of 7 oxide products. The balance of future oxide production of approximately 840 metric tons will include 11 additional REs, which would constitute less than 5% of expected revenue in cash.
Speaker Change: Of this oxide production, an estimated 560 metric tons, a roughly 40% will include purified oxides of seven <unk> and critical minerals.
Speaker Change: These include Neogen am President am Dysprosium, gallium germanium Caribbean and Skandia.
Speaker Change: Similarly based on our current now analysis over 95% of expected revenue and cash flow would be derived from this basket of seven oxide products.
Speaker Change: The balance of future oxide production of approximately 840 metric tons will include 11, additional <unk>, which would constitute less than 5% of expected revenue and cash flow.
Randall Atkins: When we have the independent economics and capex figures from Flora's report, we intend to publish those in the appropriate form and frankly have a separate call to discuss them. We are sufficiently confident, however, about both the test results and the economics from working alongside FLUR that we are ready to proceed ahead. This June, we intend to initiate large-scale mining at the Brook Mine. This will be an important national milestone and will be the first new rare-earth mine in the United States in over 70 years. We are planning a formal ribbon-cutting event in mid-July with both state and federal senior government officials attending.
Speaker Change: When we have the independent economics, and Capex figures from Florida to report, we intend to publish those inappropriate for them and frankly have a separate call to discuss the.
Speaker Change: We are sufficiently confident however, about both the test results and the economics from working alongside floor that we are ready to proceed ahead.
Speaker Change: This June we intend to initiate large scale mining at the broke mine.
Speaker Change: This will be an important national milestone and will be the first new rare Earth mine in the United States and over 70 years.
Speaker Change: We are planning a formal ribbon cutting event in mid July with both state and federal senior government officials attending.
Randall Atkins: Please stay tuned for more details in the next few weeks. We will, of course, be delighted to welcome any shareholders who would like to come to Sheridan to help us celebrate. So please email our Investor Relations website as appropriate. The Brook Mine will also be the first new coal mine open in Wyoming in over 50 years. And as I said, we intend to initially mine roughly 2.5 million tons per year of coal. Roughly a half million tons of the coal and commingled clay and shea material will then be beneficiated and processed as rare earth oxide.
Speaker Change: Please stay tuned for more details in the next few weeks.
Speaker Change: We will of course be delighted to welcome any shareholders, who would like to come to Sheridan to help us celebrate so please email our investor relations website as appropriate.
Speaker Change: The mine will also be the first new coal mine open in Wyoming in over 50 years.
Speaker Change: And as I said, we intend to initially mined roughly two and a half million tons per year of coal.
Speaker Change: Roughly a half million tons of coal and co mingled clay and Shay material will then be beneficiate, it and processed as rare Earth oxides.
Randall Atkins: Initially, we will produce rare earth concentrates and then ultimately refine these to commercial-grade oxygen. The overall processing plant will be constructed onsite on our property in Wyoming. The entire vertical integration of the mining and processing will, of course, be done domestically in the United States. The remaining 2 million tons of non-mineralized coal will be sold as conventional Powder River Basin thermal coal into utility markets. So in simple terms, the coal sales will help us lower the overall cost of the rare-earth mining so that we will have an extremely low mine cost basis in the critical minerals.
Speaker Change: Initially we will produce rare earth concentrates and then ultimately refine these two commercial grade oxides.
Speaker Change: The overall processing plant will be constructed onside on our property in Wyoming.
Speaker Change: The entire vertical integration of the mining and processing will of course be done domestically in the United States.
Speaker Change: The remaining 2 million tons of non mineralized coal will be sold as conventional powder River basin thermal coal into utility markets.
Speaker Change: So in simple terms the coal sales will help us lower the overall cost of the railroad mining. So that we will have an extremely low mine cost basis in the critical minerals.
Randall Atkins: Our next step is to commence later this summer the construction of the pilot plant demonstration facility, which FLIR is now designing. We plan to have that in initial operation by 2026. We then intend to operate in pilot plant mode for roughly a year to produce rare earth and critical mineral concentrates. That pilot operation is designed to inform the ultimate design and operational flowsheet for the full commercial processing and refining plant, which Fleur will again design and engineer. Our current timeline is to commence construction of the full commercial facility by late 26 or early 27 and have that plant producing commercial grade mineral oxides by 2028.
Speaker Change: Our next step is to commence later this summer the construction of the pilot plant demonstration facility, which Florida is now designing we plan to have that in initial operation by 2026.
Speaker Change: We then intend to operate in pilot plant mode for roughly a year to produce rare earth and critical mineral concentrate.
Speaker Change: That pilot operation is designed to informed the ultimate design and operational flow sheet for the full commercial processing and refining plant, which fluor will again design and engineer.
Speaker Change: Our current timeline is to commence construction of the full commercial facility by late 'twenty six or early 'twenty, seven and have that plant producing commercial grade mineral oxides by 2028.
Randall Atkins: We have fully included the CAPEX for the mine opening and pilot plant construction into our current budget for 2025. And indeed, we're pleased to have been awarded a $6.1 million matching fund grant from the Wyoming Energy Authority to be applied toward the pilot plant development and spread between 2025 and 2026.
Speaker Change: We are fully included the Tac the Capex for the mine opening and pilot plant construction into our current budget for 2020.
Speaker Change: And indeed, we are pleased to have been awarded a $6 1 million dollar matching fund grant from the Wyoming Energy authority to be applied toward the pilot plant development and spread between 2025 and 26.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Randall Atkins: Once we have a better sense of what the full commercial project looks like, we will assess with our financial advisors what the optimal capital structure will look like, as well as the appropriate financial options on how to proceed. To say that we are excited is a mild understatement. We are now ready to grow Ramaco into being both a critical mineral producer as well as a met coal company.
Speaker Change: Once we have a better sense of what the full commercial project looks like we will assess with our financial advisors, what the optimal capsule capital structure will look like as well as the appropriate financial options on how to proceed.
Speaker Change: To say that we are excited as a mild understatement, we are now ready to grow aramco in to being both a critical mineral producer as well as the met coal company.
Randall Atkins: Lastly, I'm delighted that former U.S. Senator Joe Manchin was appointed to our board last month. Joe Manchin brings to Ramaco decades of national leadership at the highest level in energy policy and economic development. as well as a deep understanding of the issues facing the U.S. coal industry and West Virginia coal business in particular. As the former West Virginia Governor, Secretary of State, and then United States Senator, as well as past Chairman of the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, he has been a steadfast advocate for metallurgy coal in the wider U.S. mining community. As Ramaco advances our rare earth element development in Wyoming, Joe also brings us unparalleled strategic perspective given his experience in both national defense and critical mineral supplies.
Speaker Change: Lastly.
Speaker Change: I'm delighted that former U S. Senator Joe mentioned was appointed to our board last month.
Joe mentioned brings to <unk> decades of National leadership at the highest level in energy policy and economic development.
Speaker Change: As well as a deep understanding of the issues facing the U S coal industry and West Virginia coal business in particular.
Speaker Change: As the former West Virginia Governor Secretary of State and then the United States Senator as well as past Chairman U S Senate Nash.
Natural resource Committee he has been a steadfast advocate for metallurgical coal in the wider U S mining industry.
As <unk> advances are rare earth elements development in Wyoming, Joe also brings us unparalleled strategic perspective, given his experience in both national defense and critical mineral supply chains.
Randall Atkins: So to close... While the first quarter, metrologic markets have remained... We've continued to solidly execute in terms of what we can control. production and cash. We hope for stronger market conditions as we move later into the year. We also see our Brookmine Critical Minerals development as a tremendous opportunity for both Ramaco and the country as we work to realize its commercial potential.
Speaker Change: So to close.
Speaker Change: While the first quarter metallurgical markets.
Speaker Change: You have continued.
Speaker Change: We've continued to solidly execute in terms of what we can control.
Speaker Change: As production and cash cost.
Speaker Change: We hope for stronger market conditions as we move later into the year.
Speaker Change: We also see our Brook mind critical minerals development as a tremendous opportunity for both <unk> and the country as we worked to realize its commercial potential.
Jeremy Sussman: With that, I would now like to turn the floor over to the rest of our team to discuss finances, operations, and markets. Chairman, could you please start a rundown of our... Thank you, Andy. As you noted, first quarter 2025 operational results were again solid, with cash costs per ton sold under $100 for the second straight quarter and a record level of quarterly production. Unfortunately, metallurgical coal price indices have continued to decline. This caused both a sequential and year-on-year decline in earnings despite the operating achievement. To get into specifics, Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $10 million, compared to $29 million in Q4.
Scott: With that I would now like to turn the floor over to the rest of our team and Scott's finances operations and markets.
Speaker Change: When you start a rundown of our financial metrics.
Scott: Thank you Randy.
Scott: As you noted first quarter 2025 operational results were again solid with cash cost per ton sold under $100 for the second straight quarter and a record level of quarterly production. Unfortunately metallurgical coal price indices have continued to decline.
Scott: This caused both the sequential and year on year decline in earnings despite the operating achievements.
Scott: To get into specifics Q1, adjusted EBITDA was $10 million as compared to $29 million in Q4.
Jeremy Sussman: Q1's net loss of $9 million compared to Q4's net income of $4 million. Class A EPS showed a 19 cent loss in Q1 versus a 6 cent gain in Q4. As I mentioned, the primary reasons for lower Q1 EBITDA and EPS were the $7 per ton sequential decline in our quarterly realized pricing and 175,000 ton decline in tons sold. On the pricing front, key U.S. metallurgical coal indices fell 3% in Q1 vs. Q4. The Australian benchmark index fell roughly 9% during the same period. On the volume front, weak market conditions caused us to be selected with stock sales in the first quarter.
Q1, net loss of 9 million compared to Q4 net income of 4 million.
Scott: I say EPS showed a <unk> 19 loss in Q1 versus the <unk> and in Q4.
Scott: As I mentioned the primary reasons for lower Q1, EBITDA and EPS were at $7 per ton sequential decline in our quarter quarterly realized pricing of 175000 ton decline in unsold.
Scott: On the pricing front key U S. Metallurgical coal indices fell 3% in Q1 versus Q4, the Australian benchmark index fell roughly 9% or same period.
Scott: On the volume front weak market conditions caused us to be selective with spot sales in the first quarter.
Jeremy Sussman: On the operational front, we actually had a record quarter of production, annualizing to 4 million tons, despite losing roughly 150,000 tons due to challenging weather conditions. As a reminder, we experienced freezing temperatures for two weeks in July and January, and then saw historic flooding in February. The decision to build inventory for a better market was deliberate. At the same time, we continue to perform well on the cost front, with cash cost of sales coming in at $98 in Q1. which was the second straight quarter of sub-$100 per tonne haul. These levels are firmly within the first quartile of the U.S.
On the operational front, we actually had a record quarter of production annualized to 4 million tonnes, despite losing 150000 due to challenging weather conditions.
Scott: As a reminder, we experienced freezing temperatures for weeks in July and January and then saw historic flooding.
Scott: Right.
Scott: The decision to build inventory for a better market lists deliberate.
Scott: At the same time, we continued to perform well on the cost front, our cash cost of sales coming in at $98 in Q1, which was the second straight quarter of sub 100 dollar per ton cost.
Scott: <unk>.
Scott: These levels are firmly within the first quartile of U S metallurgical coal cash cost curve.
Jeremy Sussman: metallurgical coal cast cost curve. As important as it is to control costs, it is equally important to be prudent on placing funds in a challenging market. With that degree, I'm pleased to note that Ramaco enjoyed both the highest margins per ton and the highest realized pricing among our publicly traded peer group in the space, which of course includes those who actually had negative margins per ton in current difficult environments.
Scott: It is important as it is to control cost it is equally important to be prudent on placing tons in a challenging market to.
Scott: To that degree I am pleased to note that <unk> enjoyed the highest margins per ton and the highest realized pricing among our publicly traded peer group in this space, which of course includes those who actually had negative margins per ton inherent difficult.
Jeremy Sussman: Looking forward, we're making a number of tweaks to our 2025 guidance given suboptimal macro conditions. First, based on our continued solid cost performance, 2025 cost per ton sold guidance is lowered to 96 to 102, down from the prior expectation of 97 to 103. Second, we're reducing our CAFX guidance from $60 million to $70 million. 5 to $65 million. The majority of Metcalfex will occur in the first half of 2025 as a continuation of growth projects initiated in 2024. And third, in light of continued weak market conditions, we're optimizing our overall production and sales. We're reducing selective production to limit potential lower-priced box sales, especially into Asia.
Scott: Looking forward, we're making a number of tweaks to our 2025 guidance given suboptimal macro conditions.
Scott: First based on our solid cost performance 2025 cost per ton salt guidance lowered to 90 6102 down from the prior expectation of 97 to one of three.
Scott: Second, we're reducing our capex guidance from $60 million to $70 million.
Scott: 5% to $65 million.
Majority of met Capex will occur in the first half of 2025, that's a continuation of growth projects initiated in 2024.
Scott: Third light of continued weak market conditions, we're optimizing our overall production and sales.
Scott: Reducing selective production limit potential lower priced spot sales, especially into Asia.
Jeremy Sussman: At current prices, that should provide a net benefit to free cash flow. As a result, full year 2025 production is now anticipated to come in between 3.9 to 4.3 million tons versus prior expectations of 4.2 to 4.6 million tons. full year 2025 sales are now anticipated to come in 4.1 and 4.5 million tons prior expectations of 4.4 to 4.8 million tons. Fourth, we're also modifying both CDNA and CASH SG&A guidance. Cash SG&A guidance has increased to $36 to $40 million from $34 to $38 million, largely due to increased legal expenses related to the multi-year lawsuit against Trump Insurance, which is anticipated to go to trial this summer.
Scott: At current prices that should provide a net benefit to free cash flow.
Scott: As a result full year 2000, and twenty-five production is now anticipated to come in between three nine to $4 3 million versus prior expectations of four 2% to four 6 million tons.
Scott: The year 2025 sales are now anticipated to come in in <unk>.
Scott: Four one and four 5 million tons versus prior expectations of four four to $4 8 million tonnes.
Scott: Four we're also modify the modifying both DD&A and cash SG&A guidance.
Scott: SG&A guidance is increased to 36% to 40 from 34 to 38 million largely due to increased legal expenses related to the multiyear lawsuit against Chubb insurance, which is anticipated to go to trial. This summer.
Jeremy Sussman: In addition, SG&A guidance declines to between $71 to $76 million, from $73 to $78 million, resulting from the aforementioned changes to production in CapEx. Fifth, anticipating continued weak market conditions, tons sold in the second quarter of 2025 are projected to close to Q1 levels at between 850,000 and 950,000 tons. These two cash mine costs should come in towards the high end of the annual range given the lower tonnage levels.
Scott: In addition, DD&A guidance declines to between $71 million to $76 million from $73 million to $78 million, resulting from the aforementioned changes to production and capex.
Scott: Fifth anticipating continued weak market conditions tons sold in the second quarter of 2025 are projected to close to Q1 levels at between 850000 950000 tonnes due to cash mine costs come in towards the high end of the annual rents given the lower tonnage levels.
Jeremy Sussman: Moving to the balance. Our liquidity of $118 million on March 31st was up almost 25% year-on-year. At the same time, our overall credit metrics remain strong, with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of less than 0.7 times on a trailing 12-month basis. Bottom line is that despite the challenging market conditions, our operations remain firmly in the first quartile of the U.S. cost curve. When coupled with our liquidity levels and strong balance sheet, Ramaco is well positioned to withstand any near-term market weakness. At the same time, we have one of the strongest growth profiles in the space, and we're well positioned to take advantage of market strength when we do see a better market.
Scott: Moving to the balance sheet, our liquidity of $118 million on March 31 was up almost 25% year on year.
Scott: At the same time, our overall credit metrics remained strong with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of less than 0.7 times on a trailing 12 month basis.
Scott: Bottom line is that despite the challenging market conditions. Our opera operations remained firmly in the first quartile of the U S cost curve, when coupled with our liquidity levels and strong balance sheet <unk> is well positioned to withstand any near term market weakness.
Scott: The same time, we have one of the strongest growth profiles in the space and are well positioned to take advantage of market strength. When you do see a better market.
Jeremy Sussman: Lastly, as Randy mentioned, we continue to make substantial progress on our Rare Earth and Critical Minerals Project at the Brook Mine in Wyoming. There's a lot to be optimistic about when looking ahead.
Randy Atkins: Lastly, it's Randy mentioned continue to make substantial progress on our rare Earth and critical minerals project at the Brook mining why often.
Speaker Change: A lot to be optimistic about when looking ahead.
Christopher Blanchard: With that said, I would now like to turn the call over to our EVP for Mine Planning and Development, Chris Blanchard, to discuss operations. Thank you, Jeremy, and thanks to everyone who was able to join us this morning. As Randy and Jeremy have both noted, despite our continued operational successes on the mine. We mentioned briefly adverse weather in January and February. Extreme freezing temperatures and historic flooding were speculated. caused us to miss our production targets in those two months by approximately $150,000. This production miss, coupled with the idle costs and clean up and recovery efforts, and the work that occurred at the mines contributed to the slight uptick in our mine operating cash costs.
Speaker Change: That said I would now like to turn the call over to our EVP for mine planning and development, Chris Blanchard to discuss operations.
Chris Blanchard: Thank you Jeremy and thanks to everyone, who is able to join US This morning.
Speaker Change: As Randy and Jeremy have both noted despite our continued operational successes on the mining side. The continued weakness in the global met markets and the dynamics of the steel business continue to hinder our financial performance.
Speaker Change: As we mentioned briefly adverse weather in January and February extreme freezing temperatures and historic flooding, respectively caused us to Miss our production targets in those two months by approximately 150000 clean tons.
Speaker Change: This production Miss coupled with the idle costs and clean up and recovery efforts incurred at the mines contributed to the slight uptick in our mine operating cash costs from the fourth quarter of 24 to the first quarter of this year.
Christopher Blanchard: from the fourth quarter of 24. performance at our Havaul Elk Creek Combo. Correcting for the lost tons at Elk Creek due to the weather. Fully Ramped Elk Creek. is operating right at a $3 million. translates into average cast cost. significantly below $100 per ton. given the market weakness in both price and... We are looking at potential areas. further improve cost performance at Elk Grove. As Randy noted, we do not want to...
Speaker Change: Performance at our hub all Elk Creek complex has continued to surpass expectations on a cash cost basis overall.
Speaker Change: Correcting for the walls tons at Elk Creek due to the weather events. The fully ramped Elk Creek complex is operating right at a 3 million ton per year production rate.
Speaker Change: That translates into average cash cost of production significantly below $100 per ton.
Speaker Change: However.
Speaker Change: Given the market weakness in both pricing and demand we are looking at potential areas to further improve cost performance at Elk Creek as well as company wide.
Randy Atkins: As Randy noted, we do not want to produce tons simply for the sake of producing them.
Christopher Blanchard: At our Berlin complex, during the first quarter, we began construction of the next ventilation shaft. The completion and the activation of this shaft in the next several weeks will allow us the optionality. relatively quickly start. 3, and number 4, producing supercells. Get Clared. Equally important at Berwyn, we have seen recent improvements in the geologic condition. currently operating number one. Translating into both higher production and lower cost for that mine, and therefore the entire company. For the cost standpoint, we are also moving one of our sections back on to our... owned Coleridge. cost savings of several dollars.
Randy Atkins: At our Berlin complex during the first quarter, we began construction of the next ventilation shaft for the continued expansion of that mine.
Randy Atkins: The completion of the <unk> and the activation of this shaft in the next several weeks will allow us the optionality to relatively quickly start the new number three and number four producing super sections once we get clarity on better market conditions.
Randy Atkins: Equally important at Berlin, we have seen recent improvements in the geologic conditions on our currently operating number one and number two sections.
Randy Atkins: This is translating into both higher production and lower cost for that mine and therefore the entire complex.
Randy Atkins: From a cost standpoint, we are also moving one of our sections back onto our own owned coal reserves.
Randy Atkins: Where we will have no royalties and have immediate.
Randy Atkins: Cost savings of several dollars per ton.
Christopher Blanchard: Finally, at MAVEN, we're working with our rail partner there to design and develop This will allow Maiben to realize its first quartile cost. Once these logistics costs can be further reduced or Engineering and design work, as well as exploration core drilling, continues for our underground reserve areas and projects. We are poised to move forward with these additional high-quality, low-vol tons when market conditions dictate that. As Randy alluded to, with our Elk Creek complex running near to pass. We have over 2 million tons of optionality in our portfolio of annual high quality, low cost, low vol tons that can be brought online and into operation within 12 to 18 months.
Randy Atkins: Finally at Maison, we're working with our rail partner there to design and develop potential batch way load out to eliminate most of the trucking from this complex.
Randy Atkins: This will allow <unk> to realize its first quartile cost profile. Once these logistics costs can be further reduced or eliminated.
Randy Atkins: Engineering and design work as well as exploration core drilling continues for our underwrite underground reserve areas and project.
Randy Atkins: We are poised to move forward with these additional high quality low vol tons when market conditions dictate that we should.
Randy Atkins: As Randy alluded to with our Elk Creek complex running near capacity.
Randy Atkins: We have over 2 million tons of Optionality in our portfolio of annual high quality low cost low vol tons that can be brought on line and into operation within 12 to 18 months between the growth at our Berlin mine.
Christopher Blanchard: wrote at our Berwyn mine and of the new underground complex. one positive aspect of the current extended market week. We've been successful in filling vacancies and improving the overall experience level of our operations. as well as picking up some key safety professionals, operations leaders, and engineers. Having an even stronger team will allow us to pivot more quickly when the market adjusts in a positive way.
New underground complex it made them.
Randy Atkins: The one positive aspect of the current extended market weakness is the general easing of the labor market tightness, which is persistent for several years.
Randy Atkins: We have been successful in filling vacancies and improving the overall experience level of our operations teams as well as picking up some key safety professionals operations leaders and engineering talent.
Randy Atkins: <unk>, an even stronger team will allow us to pivot more quickly when the market adjust in a positive direction.
Christopher Blanchard: Finally, regarding the operations in Wyoming, we are excited to announce that we are expecting to break ground before the end of next month on the While mining will initially be at modest levels compared to the Power River Basin. We will be removing our first cull from the pit. This will let us accelerate our testing and optimization efforts at the pilot.
Randy Atkins: Finally regarding the operations in Wyoming, we're excited to announce that we are expecting to break ground before the end of next month on the broke mine.
Randy Atkins: While mining will initially be at modest levels compared to the powder River basin mines, we will be removing our first call from the pits.
Randy Atkins: This will let us accelerate our testing and optimization efforts at the pilot stage.
Christopher Blanchard: moving to break ground at the pilot facility later in the summer. This will enable us to move from testing samples that are in the gram and kilogram size to up to a ton or more per day. The results from the pilot plant will then inform the final design of the future commercial plant along the timeline which Randy earlier described. Steps will be the first towards the commercial operations and the development of our critical.
Randy Atkins: Moving to break ground at the pilot facility later in the summer.
Randy Atkins: This will enable us to move from testing samples that are in the Graham and kilogram size.
Randy Atkins: Two up two a ton or more per day potentially.
Randy Atkins: The results from the pilot plant will then inform the final design of the future commercial plant along the timeline with Randy earlier discussed.
Randy Atkins: Those steps will be the first towards the commercial operations over and the development of our critical minerals business.
Christopher Blanchard: To conclude, operationally, we'll continue to keep ourselves positioned defensively. as well as aggressively manage our costs.
Randy Atkins: To conclude operationally, we will continue to keep ourselves positioned defensively.
Randy Atkins: As well as aggressively manage our costs and those things that we can control.
Jason Fannin: I would now like to turn the call over to our Chief Commercial Officer, Jason Fannin, to discuss our overall sales program. and all the markets. Thanks, Chris. And good morning, everyone. Today, I'll share our views on our sales outlook and current posture, coking coal and steel markets, finish up with some comments around our initial RVE and critical minerals marketing and sales endeavors. Starting with an overview of our sales book and the various markets we serve, the U.S. and Canada are our domestic end-users, taking shipments at a rateable pace. and with our expectations of the actual schedule.
Randy Atkins: I would now like to turn the call over to our Chief commercial officer, Jason fan and to discuss our overall sales program and all the market dynamics.
Jason Fan: Thanks, Brett and good morning, everyone today I'll share our views on our sales outlook posture.
Coking coal and steel markets finish up with some comments around our initial RV and critical minerals marketing and sales endeavors.
Jason Fan: Starting with an overview of our sales both in the various markets we serve.
Jason Fan: The U S and Canada, our domestic end users taking shipments at a ratable pace.
Jason Fan: Consistent with our expectations actual schedule.
Jason Fannin: This study case provides continued support for our overall sales book. Even in the face of a stock that you want to price. At the start of the second quarter, we'll get the commitments for 3.7 million times. North American buyers account for 1.6 million tons at an average price of $150 per ton. First quarter seaborne shipments of 0.6 million tons achieved an average fixed price of $111 million. In total, our fixed price book for 2025 stands at 2.2 million tons at a funded price of $141. With an additional 1.5 million tons sold to Seaborne customers at index-length pricing for later delivery.
Jason Fan: Dedicate provides continued support for our overall sales book.
Jason Fan: Even in the face of salt seaborne pricing.
Jason Fan: At the start of the second quarter.
Jason Fan: Commitments from $3 7 million tonnes.
Jason Fan: North American buyers account for one 6 million tons at an average price of one.
Jason Fan: <unk> per ton.
Jason Fan: First quarter seaborne shipments of 0.6 million average fixed price of $111 per ton.
Jason Fan: Total fixed price book $2022 2 million tons under the cloud.
Jason Fan: Bob.
Jason Fan: With an additional one.
Jason Fan: Tons sold the stable customers.
Jason Fan: Pricing for later delivery.
Jason Fannin: Most of our remaining uncommitted volumes are tied to planned back-half production, giving us the flexibility to lay in additional sales at attractive risk-reward price points. With market headwinds persisting, we're optimizing our production plan to limit lower-priced spout sales and focus on the highest return opportunity. This flexible, systematic approach is designed to enhance margins, target the best sales opportunities. and continue serving our long-term customers, positioning Ramaco for future growth.
Jason Fan: Most of our remaining uncommitted volumes are tied to planned back half production, giving us the flexibility to lower one additional sales at attractive risk reward points.
Jason Fan: With market headwinds persisting, we're optimizing our production plan to limit lower priced spot sales and focus on the highest return opportunities.
Jason Fan: This flexible systematic approach is designed to enhance modules multiple best sales opportunities.
Jason Fan: And continue serving our long term customers positioning ramp up for future growth.
Jason Fannin: As we look at the macro, global cooking coal markets have continued to weaken from a pricing with index averages down approximately 6% since the start of... As of May 9th, the Australian Premium Mobile Index currently sits at $190.50 per ton, up from its recent low of $166.00 in late March. Price improvement is largely driven by supply disruptions at several Australian markets.
Jason Fan: As we look at the macro global coking coal markets have continued to weaken from a pricing standpoint.
Jason Fan: With the index averages down approximately 6% since the start of Q1.
Jason Fan: As of May nine the Australian premium low Vol index currently sits at $190 per tonne.
Jason Fan: From its recent low of $166 in late March.
Jason Fan: While this improvement is largely driven by supply disruptions at several Australia.
Jason Fannin: Thank you all for listening. We'll be back in just a few minutes. The U.S. East Coast Lowball Index is currently at $181 per ton, has rebounded slightly from the lows into a new one of about 4%. Even with the slight uptick in Atlantic Medical Indices, these levels do not fully appreciate the supply-side impacts caused by recent bankruptcy. and Reductions in Static Shifts in Numerous Operations Throughout the Epidemiological Pulse Phase. At the halfway point of the second quarter, the metallurgical coal market remains under pressure, driven largely by persistently weak steel mill profitability in export-oriented markets. Chinese steel exports have continued as strong.
Jason Fan: Coupled with steady demand.
Jason Fan: The U S East coast low volume is currently $101.
Jason Fan: As we have gone up slightly from the low end of Q1 up about 4%.
Jason Fan: Even with the slight uptick in a lot of medical and seats. The global do not fully appreciate the supply side impact caused by recent bankruptcy.
Jason Fan: <unk> and reductions in staffing shifts the numerous operations throughout the rest of metallurgical coal space.
Jason Fan: At the halfway point of the second quarter, the metallurgical coal market remains under pressure.
Jason Fan: Driven largely by persistently weak steel mill profitability export oriented markets.
Jason Fan: Chinese steel exports continue to install base.
Jason Fannin: gaining downward pressure on global steel prices and I'm counting these factors like what we'll care This one certainly collected away on a skilled man and caused many... We anticipated during the last earnings call, these conditions are beginning to take visible toll.
Jason Fan: Strong global steel prices and margins.
Jason Fan: Our planning these factors our global tariff disputes.
Additional uncertainly likely to weigh on steel demand across many key.
Jason Fan: We anticipated during our last earnings call. These conditions are beginning to take the whole Paul.
Jason Fannin: This recording was recorded on an 7-foot high stage. The producers are reliant on exporting all the time. Tariffs and trade restrictions have sharply curtailed Chinese buying, exacerbating already challenging price conditions. Producers unable to manage costs effectively are undergoing material financial strain. The number of islands and layoffs has continued to rise. We believe we are now at the midpoint of this correction, where financial and operational stress across the industry is becoming more pronounced. If current conditions persist, we anticipate a further wave of supply cuts that could help restore volume. On the demand side, China's appetite for seaborne cooking coal remains subdued.
Jason Fan: On smaller less well capitalized producers and those producers globally exporting a little chat.
Jason Fan: Tariffs and trade restrictions sharply curtailed Chinese bonds, exacerbating already challenging price conditions.
Jason Fan: Producers are unable to make also fortunately are undergoing material financial strain on survival.
Jason Fan: The continued rise in the region.
Jason Fan: We believe we are now at the midpoint of this correction, where financial and operational strengths across the industry is becoming more pronounced.
Jason Fan: If current conditions persist, we anticipate a further way of supply could help us to promote.
Jason Fan: Yes.
Speaker Change: On the demand side, John Paul for seaborne coking coal remains subdued.
Jason Fannin: and Ample Domestic Supply, along with steady import flows from Mongolia and Russia, continue to displace higher cost international products. While this weakness persists, it is being partially offset by growing demand from India, one of the few bright spots in the global market. That said, seasonal restocking activity in the near term may bring additional price softness before a broader recovery takes hold. Looking ahead, rumored tiny steel production cuts, if implemented, could further dampen near-term metal. However, those same tests may ultimately reduce Chinese steel export volumes. that would stabilize local steel prices, potentially marking the bottom of this cycle.
Ample domestic supply along with steady input flows from Mongolia, and Russia continues to displace higher cost international.
While this week persist is being partially offset by growing demand for me.
Speaker Change: The few bright spots in the global market.
Speaker Change: That said seasonal restocking activity in the near term may bring additional price softness before a broader recovery takes hold.
Speaker Change: Looking ahead rumored Chinese steel production cuts.
Limited.
Speaker Change: Dampen near term metal demand.
Speaker Change: Have those same types may ultimately reduced Chinese steel export volumes.
Speaker Change: Stabilized global steel prices potentially multiple the bottom of this cycle.
Jason Fannin: Iron ore prices follow the results of improved steel mill margins could accelerate a recovery in silking price. We remain bullish longer term on the European steel market as policymakers pivot from fiscal conservatism toward expansionary growth and credit. Measures such as increased infrastructure spend, targeted manufacturing. and the potential safeguard action to low-cost imports should collectively drive higher downstream steel demand for bolstered steel mill margins. This policy shift lays a strong foundation for sustaining electrical coal consumption in the Atlantic Basin. In the Atlantic Basin, Ramaco's very strong upgrades remain in high demand. particularly with our specialty customers in Europe who continue to secure and receive regular shipments at their usual pace.
Speaker Change: Iron ore prices, followed as a result improved steel mill margins could accelerate recovery.
Speaker Change: Prices.
Speaker Change: We remain bullish longer term on the European steel market as policymakers pivoted from fiscal conservatism.
Generic.
Speaker Change: Alright.
Speaker Change: Measures such as increased infrastructure spend targeted manufacturing.
Speaker Change: Safeguard actions cost imports should collectively drive higher downstream steel demand bolster steel mill margins.
Speaker Change: This policy shift lays a strong foundation.
Speaker Change: In metallurgical coal consumption.
Speaker Change: Yes.
Speaker Change: In the Atlantic Basin Amoco's various range of Manhattan.
Speaker Change: Particularly with our specialty customers in Europe, who continued to secure and receive regular shipments at the equal basis.
Jason Fannin: South American markets remain stable with modest upside expected in the back half. Amicus term contract overbook, the rate continues to perform as expected. We've seen both heightened interest and increased spot tenders. Pacific Basin, where strategy remains centered on a core group of long-term customers. We are taking a pragmatic approach to stopping increase from the region given the challenging pricing environment.
Speaker Change: South American markets remained stable with modest upside expected the back half.
Speaker Change: Of the year.
Speaker Change: It gets term contract book.
Speaker Change: Continues to perform as expected.
Speaker Change: We've seen heightened interest in Spartan is for me.
Speaker Change: Terrific basin.
Speaker Change: <unk> remains centered on a long term goal.
Speaker Change: We're taking a pragmatic approach as part of inquiries from the region given the challenging pricing environment.
Jason Fannin: Turning to our Critical Minerals Marketing Strategy, we're rapidly mobilizing efforts around our green mining policies and shared environment. We have mapped the full supply chain for highest value rare earth elements and critical minerals and are engaging key U.S. consumers, particularly suppliers of the U.S. Department of Defense. to align on operating timelines, product and volume projections, qualification protocols, and downstream... Today, we've held productive preliminary discussions with potential customers regarding their particular needs for the Rook Mine Product Center. Concentrate Sample Qualification Procedures Laying the groundwork for future offtake agreements.
Speaker Change: Turning to our critical models marketing strategy, we're rapidly mobilizing efforts around off road map and shared in mind.
Speaker Change: We have mapped the full supply chain for our highest value there are elements and critical minerals and are engaged in Q2, particularly suppliers.
Speaker Change: Defense.
Speaker Change: To align on operating timelines.
Speaker Change: Volume projection qualification protocols and downstream location.
Speaker Change: Today, we've held productive.
Speaker Change: With potential customers regarding their particular needs the Brook mountain products.
Okay.
Altra trades.
Speaker Change: You can proceed.
Speaker Change: Work with the Offtake agreement.
Jason Fannin: Fossil plant construction slated to commence this fall and first concentrate expected in 2026. We're building the best commercial pipeline that leverages the continued build-out of our R&D, incremental production, and processing features.
Speaker Change: Yes.
Speaker Change: Plant construction slated commenced this fall first concentrate is expected in 2026.
Speaker Change: We're building a robust commercial pipeline that leverages the continued buildup.
Local minerals production process leadership.
Operator: With that said, I would now like to return the call to the operator for the Q&A portion of the call.
Speaker Change: That said I would now like to return the call to the operator for the Q&A portion of the call operator.
Operator: Operator? We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your telephone keypad. if you were using a speakerphone. Please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then 2.
Speaker Change: Yeah.
Speaker Change: We will now begin the question and answer session.
Speaker Change: To ask a question you May press Star then one on your telephone keypad.
Speaker Change: If you were using a speaker phone.
Please pickup your handset before pressing the keys.
Speaker Change: If at any time. Your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question. Please press Star then two.
Operator: At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster.
Speaker Change: At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster.
Speaker Change: Yes.
Nicholas Giles: The first question comes from Nick Giles with B. Reilly Securities. Please go ahead. Yeah, thank you, operator. And good morning, everyone. Guys, thanks so much for the detailed update this morning. My first question was on the Metco side. So second quarter guidance of 900,000 tons at the midpoint. So, as I'm trying to back into what your guidance could imply for the second half, I believe I'm getting to around...
Speaker Change: The first question comes from Nick Giles with B Riley Securities. Please go ahead.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Nick Giles: Yes, Thank you operator, and good morning, everyone.
Speaker Change: Guys. Thanks, so much for the detailed update this morning. My first question was on the met coal side, So second quarter guidance of 900000 tons at the midpoint and so I'm trying to back into what your guidance could imply for the second half I believe I'm getting to around.
Nicholas Giles: At least a 25% improvement from 2Q to the 3Q, 4Q levels, and so just was curious how we should think about sales mix, cost improvements, etc.
Speaker Change: At least 25% improvement from two Q3 Q4 Q levels and so just was curious how we should think about sales mix cost improvements et cetera, as we move into the second half. Thank you very much Ken.
Randall Atkins: as we move into I'm going to let Jeremy answer that, but first let me apologize. We're having some audio issues that we've heard from several of you on the line, so we're not quite sure how to fix that, but hopefully you can take a look at the transcript and that'll clarify whatever remarks you weren't able to hear, clearly.
Speaker Change: I'm going to let Jeremy answer that but first let me apologize we're having some audio issues that we've heard from several of you on the line. So we're not quite sure how to fix that but.
Hopefully you can take a look at the transcript that will clarify whenever remarks, you weren't able to here clearly, yes, thanks, Randy and good question. Nick So yes, our Q2 sales guidance of 850 to 950000 tons. Obviously, it does imply a pickup in the <unk>.
Jeremy Sussman: Yeah, thanks, Randy. And good question, Nick. So yeah, our Q2 sales guidance of 850 to 950,000 tons obviously does imply a pickup in the back half of the year, so I think of Q2 again possibly towards the higher end of the range with the lower tonnage. We're just simply not going to force tons into a challenging market right now, but we do, as we said in our remarks, expect the market to pick up in the back half of the year. We're already starting to certainly see some supply curve hit, and so I sort of think about Q3 probably up, let's call it in the million to 1,000,000 range versus Q2.
Speaker Change: Half of the year, so I think of.
Speaker Change: Q2, again cost will be towards the higher end of the range with the lower tonnage.
Speaker Change: Simply not going to force tons into a challenging market right now, but we do as we said in our remarks I expect the market to pick up in the back half of the year, we're already starting to certainly see some supply curtailments and so I sort of think about Q3, probably up let's call. It in.
Speaker Change: One <unk> versus Q2.
Jeremy Sussman: Then you kind of back into the math in Q4. I know that's a pretty wide spread, but certainly we've built an inventory, and if the market does improve, we've got to build these to a fair level in Q4.
Speaker Change: On the back of the math in Q4, I know, that's a pretty widespread.
But certainly we built some inventory and if the market does improve.
Speaker Change: We've got it.
Speaker Change: Okay.
Speaker Change: Yes.
Speaker Change: Hey, Bob.
Speaker Change: Bill.
Okay.
Nicholas Giles: Jeremy, that's helpful. I caught most of that, but... might have just lost the last bit, but I think I got the message there, so I appreciate it.
Speaker Change: Jeremy that's helpful I caught most of that but.
Might've, just lost the last bit, but I think I got the message there.
Speaker Change: So I appreciate it.
Speaker Change:
Nicholas Giles: My second question, I did want to turn to the Rare Earths side, and earlier this month there was a second installment of critical mineral production projects that were named as FAST-41 projects, and so my question is, do you think that the Brook Mine could be included on such a list, and if so, what could the potential benefits be of any inclusion? Could there be federal funds that could either accelerate or improve the economics of the project? Thank you very much. Sure, Nick. This is Randy. So, sort of two parts to your question. The first is that the projects that were named as being, quote, FAST-tracked are ones that have permit issues.
Speaker Change: My second question I did want to turn to.
Speaker Change: So rare earth side and earlier this month there was a second installment of critical mineral production projects that were named as a fast 41 projects and so my question is do you think that the Brook mine could be included on such a list and if so what could the potential benefits be of any inclusion.
Speaker Change: <unk> could there be a federal funds that could either accelerate or improve the economics of the project. Thank you very much sure journey right.
Speaker Change: So sort of.
Speaker Change: Two parts to your question.
Speaker Change: First is that the projects that were named as being fast track are ones that have permitted us. So there is.
Randall Atkins: So there's a new entity called the Permitting Council that was the one that was essentially responsible for identifying projects that could be put on, as they said, a FAST-track to try to resolve, frankly, federal permitting issues related to either federal lands, environmental questions, or things of that nature. We were not put on that list because, frankly, we didn't qualify. We already have a permit, so we're kind of moved beyond that. But to the second part of your question about federal assistance, so we have been in touch with another new entity called the National Energy Dominance Council.
Speaker Change: A new entity called the permitting you cancel that.
Speaker Change: The one that was essentially responsible for identifying them.
Speaker Change: Projects that could be put on it.
Speaker Change: A fast track to try to resolve.
Speaker Change: Frankly federal permitting.
Speaker Change: <unk> related to either federal lands.
Speaker Change: <unk> questions or things of that nature, we were not put on that list because frankly, we didn't qualify we already have a permit so we're kind of move beyond that but to the second part of your question about federal assistance. So we have been in touch with the.
Speaker Change: Another new entity called the National Energy dominance Council.
Randall Atkins: They are certainly aware of our project, as are several rungs above them on the federal side. And, you know, once we get to a point where we actually understand the financial dimensions of what we're talking about in terms of the overall development, then we intend to sit down and see what different types of alternatives might be available on the federal level, be they financing, be they procurement, be they some form of relationship with certain Parts of the defense establishment, there's a variety of different avenues that we may be able to go down. But as I said, the interesting thing, of course, is we're the first to come out of the gate that's actually going to be in a position to begin producing.
Speaker Change: They are certainly aware of our project as are several runs above them on the federal.
Speaker Change: And once we get to a point, where we actually understand the financial dimensions of what we're talking about in terms of the overall development then we intend to sit down and see what different types of alternatives might be available on the federal level.
Speaker Change: <unk> financing.
Speaker Change: Procurement.
Speaker Change: Some form of <unk>.
Speaker Change: Relationship with certain.
Speaker Change: Parts of the defense establishment, there's a variety of different avenues that we may be able to go down but as I said the interesting thing of course is we're the first to come out of the gate, that's actually going to be in a position to begin producing so the federal government is certainly trying to do their best to be helpful to us.
Nicholas Giles: So the federal government is certainly trying to do their best to be helpful. Brandy, thank you so much for that. First of all, the clarification on the permitting side and then the additional color there.
Randy Atkins: Randy Thank you so much for that.
Randy Atkins: First of all the clarification on the permitting side and then and then the additional color there and so I'll sneak in one more just as a follow up to that I'm, just trying to better understand your desire to potentially bring in a either a financing strategic or operating partner. Obviously you have some strong partnerships in place.
Nicholas Giles: So, I'll sneak in one more just as a follow-up to that.
Randall Atkins: I just want to better understand your desire to potentially bring in either a financing, strategic, or operating partner. Obviously, you have some strong partnerships in place with FLOR and WEIR and other parties you've worked with, but is there any desire to bring in more of a concrete partnership in the form of a JV? And if so, at what stage would we think about something like that, and what could economics look like?
Randy Atkins: With floor and weird and other parties you've worked with but is there any desire to bring in more of a concrete partnership and in the form of a JV and if so at what stage would we would we think about something like that and what could economics look like thank you very much. So so let me clarify the thesis of your question we are not seeing.
Randall Atkins: Thank you very much. So, let me clarify the thesis of your question.
Randall Atkins: We are not seeking a joint venture partner, nor are we reaching out to any third parties to join us. We view this project as one that Ramaco is going to be able to finance on their own, either directly through the existing Ramaco entity, or we can explore various offshoots of the mothership, so to speak. to finance this separately. That, of course, does not even mention any involvement that we might have with federal partners that would be, hopefully, on a non-dilutive manner for whatever contributions that they would make.
Randy Atkins: <unk> a joint venture partner, nor are we reaching out to any third parties to join us.
Randy Atkins: We view. This project is one that <unk> is going to be able to finance on their own.
Randy Atkins: Either directly through the existing <unk> entity or we can explore various offshoots of the mothership so to speak.
Randy Atkins: To finance this separately.
Randy Atkins: That of course does not even mentioned any involvement that we might have with federal partners that would be hopefully on a non dilutive manner for whatever contributions that they would make.
Randall Atkins: So, just to be clear, the partners that we have now are really development partners. FLUR is obviously an important partner to us on design and engineering. We have other third-party groups. We're working with the National Energy Tech Lab, and other parts of the national laboratories under the Department of Energy in exploring a number of different novel technologies, both in terms of exploration, where we're using some pretty novel AI techniques, as well as various types of novel refining and processing techniques.
Randy Atkins: So just to be clear with the partners that we have now are really development partners. Fluor is obviously, an important partner to us on design and engineering, we have other third party groups working with the National Energy Tech lab and other parts of the National laboratories under the department of energy and <unk>.
Randy Atkins: A number of different novel technologies, both in terms of exploration, where we're using some pretty novel AI techniques.
Randy Atkins: As well as <unk>.
Randy Atkins: Various types of novel refining and processing techniques. So.
Randall Atkins: So, bottom line, when we get this boat on the water, we intend to put it out there as a Ramaco venture, not as a joint venture with any other third parties. And, indeed, when you think about it, there really aren't any other third parties out there that are in the rare earth business in the United States that are really operating, certainly, the minerals that we do. So, again, we're kind of blazing a trail, at least with respect to the critical minerals and the particular rare earths that we will be involved in developing.
Randy Atkins: Bottom line when we when we get this both on the water we intend to put it put it out there as a <unk> venture not as a joint venture with any other third parties and indeed, when you think about it there really aren't any other third parties out there that are in the.
Randy Atkins: <unk> business in the states that are really operating certainly the minerals that we do.
Randy Atkins: So.
Randy Atkins: We're kind of blazing a trail at least with respect to the critical minerals and the particular errors that we will be involved in developing.
Nicholas Giles: Randy, again, this is all super helpful clarification. So, appreciate the update this morning and continue the best of luck.
Randy Atkins: Randy again this is all super helpful clarification. So I appreciate the update this morning and continued best of luck.
Nicholas Giles: Thank you so much.
Thank you so much.
Nathan Martin: Our next question comes from Nathan Martin with The Benchmark Company. Please go ahead. Thanks, operator. Good morning, guys. I want to start on the CapEx side, obviously trimming that by $5 million at the midpoint. Is that deferred maintenance or some growth being put on hold given the current market conditions?
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from Nathan Martin with the Benchmark Company. Please go ahead.
Nathan Martin: Thanks, operator, good morning, guys.
Nathan Martin: Let's start on the Capex side, obviously firming up on $5 million at the midpoint.
Speaker Change: Is that deferred maintenance or some growth being put on hold given the current market conditions. This would be great to get an updated breakdown.
Nathan Martin: This would be great to get an updated breakdown of sustaining versus growth and even what's being spent at the Brookline this year. Thanks, Nate.
Nathan Martin: Standing versus growth and even what's being spent at the Brooklyn This year.
Jeremy Sussman: It's Jeremy. Good question. So yeah, we did trim from $60 million to $70 million down to $55 million to $60 million. We did remove the fourth section of the Berwyn mine from our CapEx guidance, so effectively that growth has been deferred in the current market environment. I think about it as, let's call it about $10 a ton of maintenance CapEx, which leaves you around $15 million or so of growth CapEx. Roughly five or so of that is on the REE front, and then the rest is mostly in the first half of the year, a lot of which already took place in Q1.
Speaker Change: Thanks Nathan.
Jeremy Sussman: Jeremy Good question. So yes, we are.
Did trim from $60 million to $70 million down to 55% to 60, we did remove the fourth section of the Berwyn mine.
Jeremy Sussman: From from our Capex guidance, so effectively that growth has been.
Jeremy Sussman: Deferred in the current market environment.
Jeremy Sussman: I think about it is let's call it about $10 a ton of maintenance.
Jeremy Sussman: Maintenance, Capex, which leaves you around <unk>.
Jeremy Sussman: $15 million or so of growth capex.
Jeremy Sussman: <unk>, 5% or so of that is on the <unk> front.
Jeremy Sussman: And then the rest is is mostly in the first half of the year a lot of which was already took place in Q1, we talked about some growth projects in 'twenty four that carried into.
Jeremy Sussman: We talked about some growth projects in 24 that carried into 25. So when you look at the balance of the year, our CapEx from Q2 through the fourth quarter on average will be less than $15 million a quarter versus obviously the 20-ish number in Q1.
Jeremy Sussman: Into 'twenty five.
Jeremy Sussman: When you look at the balance of the year, our Capex from Q2 through the fourth quarter.
Jeremy Sussman: On average will be less than $15 million a quarter versus obviously, the 20 ish number in Q1.
Nathan Martin: Very helpful, Jeremy. Thanks for that breakdown. You know, your comment as well about how 2Q costs likely at the higher end of full year guidance range is given, you know, fewer shipments. If I'm thinking about a potential offset, you know, you guys have 1.6 million domestic tons fixed at $152 a ton, obviously well above where the current export market is. I believe domestic shipments usually pick up in the second quarter. So is that fair and is it possible we could see maybe your average realized price return flatter even up in 2Q, just given support from those higher priced domestic.
Speaker Change: Alright, very helpful. Jeremy Thanks for that breakdown.
Your comment as well about how to queue costs likely at the higher end of full year guidance range just given fewer.
Speaker Change: Fewer shipments if.
Speaker Change: If I'm thinking about a potential offset you know you guys have $1 6 million domestic tons fixed at $152. Upon obviously, well above where the current export market is.
I believe domestic shipments usually pick up in the second quarter. So is that fair and is it possible we could see maybe your average realized price per ton.
Speaker Change: Water or even up in <unk>, just given support from those higher price domestic tons.
Jeremy Sussman: Nate, it's Jeremy again. So I guess the way I think of it is, you know, we shipped about 300,000 tons of domestic business in the first quarter. On the export side, we were heavy into Asia, so both of those went against us. That does imply, you know, call it 400,000 or so a quarter, Q2 through Q4 as the lake season picks up. So you're absolutely right on that. The, you know, the bad news, of course, is, you know, the majority of our tons in Q2 and through the rest of the year still go into the export market.
Jeremy Sussman: Nate it's Jeremy again, so I guess the way I would think of it as we shipped about 300000 tons of domestic business in the first quarter on the export side, we were heavy into Asia. So both of those went against us that does imply call it 400000 or several quarter.
Jeremy Sussman: Q2 through Q4 as the lake season picks up so you're absolutely right on that.
Speaker Change: The bad news of course is is the.
Speaker Change: The majority of our time this in Q2 and through the rest of the year still go into the export market spot pricing is down call it four or 5% from from the first quarter.
Nathan Martin: You know, spot pricing is down, call it 4 or 5 percent from the first quarter, and, you know, about 60 plus percent of our Q2 tons will be exposed to the indices. So I think, you know, domestic will help a little bit, but certainly it's tough to overcome the, you know, the indices kind of are what they are. Yeah, that's fair, Jeremy. And then any thoughts on exposure to, you know, CFR pricing versus FOB and responsibility of freight, obviously pressuring real-life price?
Speaker Change: About 60 plus percent of our Q2 times will be exposed to the to the indices. So I think domestic will will help a little bit, but certainly it's tough to overcome the.
Speaker Change: The indices kind of are what they are.
Jeremy Sussman: Yes, that's fair Jeremy and then any thoughts on exposure to CFR pricing versus F O B and responsibility for obviously pressuring.
Jeremy Sussman: We don't have any CFR exposure, Nate. Okay, great to hear, Randy.
Speaker Change: Realized price, we don't have any CFR exposure Nate.
Jeremy Sussman: Okay, great to hear Randy.
Randall Atkins: Maybe just one final, just goes back to last month's executive orders. end up declaring you know met coal a potential critical mineral. Can we get any thoughts on on that and what you guys see as any potential benefits you know whether that's permitting your federal money etc? I think, you know, we'd love to see federal money for Metcoal, but I don't count on that anytime soon. I think the permitting side is meaningful, particularly to the extent that there are potential projects involving BLM lands. We've got a few that we are potentially looking at. I think that will be helpful.
Speaker Change: Maybe just one final.
Speaker Change: Back to our last month's executive orders.
Speaker Change: In the declaring met coal at potential critical mineral.
Speaker Change: Could we get any thoughts on that and what you guys see as any potential benefits, whether that's permitting your federal money et cetera.
I think.
Speaker Change: We'd love to see federal money for met coal, but I don't count on that anytime soon I think the permitting side as meaningful particularly.
Speaker Change: To the extent that there are potential projects involving BLM land.
Speaker Change: We've got a few that were potentially looking at I think that'll be helpful.
Randall Atkins: Certainly on the permitting side, just as you saw, the fact that Warrior had a mine included in the fast-track list that the permitting council put out, you know, if we look like we're having bumps in the road on permitting, I think that will be handy as well. But I think in general, it's a realization that Metcoal really is a critical material. And you know, I think that in the longer range will be helpful to us.
Speaker Change: Certainly on the permitting side just as you saw the.
Speaker Change: The fact that the war Youre ahead of mine included in the the fast track list that the permitting council put out.
Speaker Change: We look like we're having bumps in the road on permitting I think that will.
Speaker Change: Be handy as well.
Speaker Change: But I think in general it's a realization that met coal really is a critical material.
Speaker Change: And I think that in the longer range will be helpful to us and I think as the federal government begins frankly to develop out what their overall coal policy will be I think you can expect that there will be nuances that will come into play on additional matters.
Randall Atkins: And I think as the federal government begins, frankly, to develop out what their overall coal policy will be, I think you can expect that there will be nuances that will come into play on additional matters and means that the federal government will try to be of some assistance as it does relate to Metcoal going forward. I appreciate those thoughts, Randy.
Speaker Change: And means that the federal government will try to be of some assistance.
Speaker Change: It does relate to met coal going forward.
Randy Atkins: I appreciate those thoughts Randy Jimmy Thanks for your time as well and the best of luck guys.
Nathan Martin: Jeremy, thanks for your time as well, and best of luck, guys. Thanks, Nate.
Speaker Change: Thanks Nate.
Nicholas Giles: We have a follow-up question from Nick Giles with B. Reilly Securities. Please go ahead. Thank you so much for taking my follow-up. I did just want to go back to the Randy, you made some comments. I think you said there's been a backlog in testing and that's contributed to some of the delays in us receiving the preliminary economic analysis, and I think now you're targeting a release by the end of this quarter. And so I just wanted to ask, you know, is there a level of conservatism in that guide? And then, in addition, you know, what should we ultimately be looking for in this PEA?
Speaker Change: We have a follow up question from Nick Childs with B Riley Securities. Please go ahead.
Speaker Change: Thank you so much for taking my follow up I did just want to go back to the Randy.
Speaker Change: Randy you made some comments I think you said, there's been a backlog in testing and that's contributed to some.
Speaker Change: Some of the delays in us receiving the.
Speaker Change: The preliminary economic analysis, and I think now you've you're targeting at a release by the end of this quarter and so I just wanted to ask is.
Speaker Change: Is there a level of conservatism in that guide.
Speaker Change: And then in addition, you know what should we ultimately be looking for in this P. A I mean any any flavor you can give us either on the capex side or or project returns anything of that nature. Thank you very much sure sure great question. So.
Randall Atkins: I mean, any flavor you can give us, either on the CAPEX side or project returns, anything of that nature. Thank you very much. Sure. Great question. So, you know, as we all understand, sort of the rare earth critical mineral business is the shiny object at the moment out in the general market, and, of course, strategically as well. As a result, you know, the, frankly, limited number of testing facilities, both in the U.S. and Canada, that are involved in the myriad of different types of testing, be they chemical, hydrometallurgic, and other, relating to any type of critical minerals, have been swamped.
Speaker Change: As we all understand sort of the rare earth critical mineral businesses, the shiny object at the moment out in the general market.
Speaker Change: And of course strategically as well.
Speaker Change: As a result.
Speaker Change: Frankly limited number of testing facilities, both in the U S and Canada that are involved in the myriad of different types of testing Kimi.
Speaker Change: Chemical hydro matter of allergic.
Speaker Change: And other relating to any type of critical minerals have been swapped.
Randall Atkins: You know, test results that we were promised to be back in two months, we've had to wait over a year, and, you know, the way that this works, it is clearly not like the coal business. You know, the coal business, you can walk in a mine and look at a wall and see how tall the coal is. Here, you're dealing with particles that are, in essence, the size or less of a strand of your hair. So these are not things that are readily apparent, and the real trick, of course, is the processing and refinement. So you have to go through a series of different testing to optimize, essentially, the chemical and metallurgic character of what you'll get out the other end.
Speaker Change: Test results that we were promised to be back in two months, we have had to wait over a year.
Speaker Change: And the way that this works it is clearly not like the coal business.
Speaker Change: Coal business you can you can walk in our mind and look at the wall and see how tall to call us here youre dealing with particles that are in.
Speaker Change: In essence, the size or less.
Speaker Change: Strand of your hair.
Speaker Change: So these are not things that are readily apparent and the real trick of course is the processing and refinement. So you have to go through a series of different testing to optimize essentially the chemical and met our allergic character of what Youll get out the other end.
Randall Atkins: As a result, you know, you have to test and then retest, and so that is what has taken such a painstaking amount of time to get completed. And of course, once we have the test results, then FLUR is able to take that, optimize those within their database and black box computerization of projects that they look at around the world to come up with, essentially, just what you asked, which is the economics of this. So we expect the preliminary economic analysis, as a first go, will have the preliminary both CAPEX as well as economics of the project.
Speaker Change: As a result, you have to test and retest and so that is what has taken such a painstaking amount of time to get completed and of course. Once we have the test results then Florida is able to take that optimize those within their database and black.
Speaker Change: Black box computerization of of projects that they look at around the world to come up with essentially just what you asked which is the economics of this so we expect the preliminary economic analysis as the first go will have.
Speaker Change: The preliminary both capex as well as economics of the project.
Randall Atkins: You know, I would suggest that, you know, the preliminary numbers will always come with a fair degree of... I won't call it fluff, but certainly conservatism to building in a certain degree of contingency, which as we go further along, obviously the contingency declines. And frankly, as we go along, particularly through the pilot phase, we will better inform how we can optimize the refining process, which again, we hope will create a situation where the economics improve the further we go out. But having said all that, the report that we'll get at the end of June will hopefully certainly give the market a pretty good sense of the feasibility of the project, the general economics, the CapEx, et cetera.
Speaker Change: I would suggest that.
Speaker Change: The preliminary numbers will always come with a fair degree of.
Speaker Change: I won't call it flopped, but certainly conservatism.
Speaker Change: To be building in a certain degree of contingency, which as we go further along obviously the contingency declines.
Speaker Change: And frankly as we go along particularly through the pilot phase, we will better inform how we can optimize the refining process, which again, we hope will create a situation where the economics improve the further we go out, but having said all of that.
Speaker Change: The report that we'll get at the end of June will hopefully certainly give the market a pretty good sense of the feasibility of the project. The general economics, the Capex et cetera, and that's pretty much what we will use until we get to a phase where we've got enough results from a pilot operation.
Randall Atkins: And that's pretty much what we will use until we get to a phase where we've got enough results from a pilot operation to truly be able to come back and plug in another set of numbers, which reflect really, frankly, testing on a larger scale from the pilot facility. The one thing I think, again, to appreciate is the testing we're doing now is really laboratory scale testing. We're doing it at a sort of bench scale. We're dealing in kilogram sizes. What we'll be doing now when we open up the mine, we will basically be testing tonnage size sampling that will go into the pilot facility.
Speaker Change: Truly be able to come back and plug in another set of numbers, which reflect.
Speaker Change: Frankly testing on a larger scale from the pilot facility.
Speaker Change: The one thing I think again to appreciate is the testing. We're doing now is really laboratory scale testing, we're doing it sort of bench scale, we're dealing in kilogram sizes, what we'll be doing now when we open up the mine, we will basically be testing tonnage size sampling.
Speaker Change: That will go into the pilot facility. So we expect just by virtue of the sheer mass of additional material, we're going to get a lot better results.
Randall Atkins: We expect just by virtue of the sheer mass of additional material, we're going to get a lot better results, particularly on some of these critical minerals and elements that have generally smaller concentrations, but you don't really be able to pick up the refinement optimization until you can test those, frankly, at a larger scale. It's sort of the first step on a long train, but I think it will be an important indication to the market of the general scale and economics of what the project will look like.
Speaker Change: Particularly on some of these.
Speaker Change: Critical minerals and elements that have generally smaller concentrations, but you don't really be able to pick up the refinement optimization until you can test those frankly, the larger scale. So.
Speaker Change: It's sort of the the first step on a long train, but I think it will be an important indication to the market of the general scale and economics of what the project will look like.
Randall Atkins: Randy, thank you for all that color. Maybe just one more if I could. You did mention in your release that the Brook Mine is Wyoming's first coal mine in 50 years. So I just wanted to ask about the coal component of the project. Could there be saleable production? Should we consider the coal as a potential byproduct? How should we think about that? How should we think about the coal contribution? Well, I'm delighted you brought that up and I again apologize for the audio because you might not have heard it in my remarks, but you know, we've got essentially At this point, two and a half million tons that we're projecting to mine of material in general, which includes obviously the coal as well as the strata above and below the clays and the shales.
Speaker Change: Randy Thank you for all that color, maybe just one more if I could I mean.
Speaker Change: You you did mention in your release that the Brook minus Wyoming's first coal mine in 50 years, and so I just wanted to ask about the coal component of the project could there be saleable production should we consider the coal as a potential byproduct I mean, how should we think about you know how should we think about the the coal contribution.
Speaker Change: Here well.
Speaker Change: I'm delighted you brought that up and I again apologize for the audio because you might not have heard it in my remarks, but we've got essentially.
Speaker Change: At this 0.2 5 million tons that we're projecting to mine off of material in general which includes obviously the coal as well as the the strata above and below the clays in the <unk>.
Randall Atkins: Of that two and a half million tons, about a half million tons will be mineralized product that we will then use to refine, to make rare earth and critical mineral oxides and concentrates. The other two million tons a year will basically be good old fashioned Powder River Basin thermal coal, which we will indeed sell into the thermal utility markets. And we will use the revenue from that sale of coal to in essence reduce the mine cost as it relates to the rare earth operation. So the end game is that we will have a very low cost basis as it relates to the rare earth operation, which again, you know, puts us in a rather unique position.
Speaker Change: Sales of that $2 5 million tonnes.
Speaker Change: About a half million tons will be mineralized product that we will then use to refine to make rare earth and critical mineral oxides.
Speaker Change: And concentrates the other 2 million tons, a year will basically be good old fashion powder River basin thermal coal, which we will indeed sell into the thermal utility markets and we will use the revenue from that sale of coal to in essence reduce the.
Speaker Change: Mine cost as it relates to the rare Earth operation. So the end game is that we will have a very low cost basis as it relates to the railroad operation, which again.
Speaker Change: Puts us in a rather unique position.
Randall Atkins: You know, most other rare earth projects around the world, the rare earth or the material that they're mining is the principal component for the rare earth. They're not a lot of secondary uses for whatever is mined. In our situation, the reverse is the case. We've got, you know, most of the material we mine will be able to be sold and then reduce the essence, the cost that's associated with the critical minerals themselves. So we regard that as a distinct advantage of this product, of this project. And Nick, I might just point to, in relation to both of your questions, to slide 16.
Speaker Change: Other rare earth projects around the world the rare Earth materials.
Speaker Change: Material that Theyre mining is the principal component for the rare Earth there not a lot of secondary uses for whatever is mined in our situation. The reverse is the case we've got.
Speaker Change: Most of the material, we mine will be able to be sold and then reduce the essence thee the cost that's associated with the critical minerals themselves. So we regard that as a distinct advantage of this product of this project and Nick I would like to point to in relation to both of your questions to slide 16, you can kind of go.
Randall Atkins: You can kind of go through that, but it's some new information where we break down our annual production of what we're expecting out of the Brook mine. And of course, you can put the market prices next to that and come up with kind of a basket number. So hopefully that helps. Yeah. I will say the interesting thing about market prices, needless to say, the entire business is controlled by one monopolistic producer, which is China. And as a result, the prices vary widely, particularly once, you know, the restrictions on exports and bans on exports started to kick in.
Speaker Change: Through that but it's some new information, where we break down our annual production of what we're expecting out of the broke mine and of course, you can put the market prices next to that and come up with a.
Speaker Change: Kind of a basket numbers. So hopefully that helps yes, I will I will say the interesting thing about market prices.
Speaker Change: Needless to say the entire business is controlled by one mob monopolistic producer, which is China and as a result, the the prices vary widely particularly once.
Speaker Change: The restrictions on exports and bands on exports started to kick in.
Nicholas Giles: The prices on various critical minerals have wildly moved. So. How those prices actually look by the time we go into production, and frankly, how real the prices that are published are going to look, I think will be vastly different, which we hope, obviously, in a positive manner. Randy, Jeremy, and team, again, this is all very helpful, so keep up the good work. Thank you.
Speaker Change: The prices on various critical minerals have wildly wildly moved so.
Speaker Change: How those prices actually look by the time, we go into production and frankly, our real the prices that are published are are look I think will be vastly different which.
Speaker Change: Which we hope obviously in a positive Maine.
Randy Atkins: Randy Jeremy team again. This is all very helpful. So keep up the good work. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Randy Atkins: Thank you.
Randall Atkins: This concludes our question and answer session.
Randy Atkins: This concludes our question and answer session.
Operator: I would like to turn the conference back over to CEO Randall Atkins for any closing remarks. We just appreciate everybody being on the call today. I know it was a little bit longer than normal, but we, as I said, had a lot of wood to chop here to cover. And also I apologize to the extent that the audio apparently was a bit choppy. So again, I would encourage everybody to read the printed transcript to make sure that they caught everything that was said. And other than that, we appreciate everybody's interest in Ramaco, and we'll look forward to catching up probably actually before the second quarter results with hopefully a separate call that will relate specifically to our critical mineral and rare earth business.
Randy Atkins: I would like to turn the conference back over to CEO Randall Atkins for any closing remarks.
Randy Atkins: Well, we just appreciate everybody being on the call today I know it was a little bit longer than normal, but we as I said had a lot of wood to chop here to cover and also I apologize so to the extent that.
Randy Atkins: The audio apparently was a bit choppy. So again I would encourage everybody to read the printed transcript to make sure that.
Randy Atkins: They caught everything that was said and other than that we appreciate everybody's interest in <unk> and we'll look forward to catching up probably actually before the second quarter results with hopefully a separate call that were related specifically to our critical mineral and railroad business.
Operator: So with that, we thank you very much.
Randy Atkins: So with that we thank you very much.
Operator: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation.
Randy Atkins: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation you may now disconnect.
You may now disconnect.
Randy Atkins: Okay.
Randy Atkins: [noise] [music].