Q2 2025 Plains GP Holdings LP Earnings Call
Speaker #1: Thank you for standing by and welcome to PAA and PAGP's second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.
Speaker #1: After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a estion during the session, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone.
Speaker #1: To remove yourself from the queue, you may press star 11 again. I would now like to hand the call over to Blake Fernandez as Vice President and Investor Relations.
Speaker #1: Please go head.
Speaker #2: Thank you, Latif. Good morning and welcome to Plains All-American second quarter 2025 earnings call. Today's slide presentation is posted on the Investor Relations website under the news and events section at irb.plains.com.
Speaker #2: An audio replay will also be available following today's call. Important disclosures regarding forward-looking statements in non-GAAP financial measures are provided on slide two. An overview of today's call is provided on slide three.
Speaker #2: A consolidated condensed consolidating balance sheet for PAGP and other reference materials are in the appendix. Today's call will be hosted by Willie Chang, Chairman and CEO and President.
Speaker #2: And Al Swanson, Executive Vice President and CFO, along with other members of our management team. With that, I will turn the call over to Willie.
Speaker #3: Thank you, Blake. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Earlier this morning, we reported solid second quarter adjusted EBITDA attributable to Plains of $672 million, which Al will cover in more detail.
Speaker #3: In June, we announced the execution of definitive agreements to sell substantially all of our NGO business to Kiera for approximately $3.75 billion US dollars.
Speaker #3: When the expected close in the first quarter of 2026, initial investor feedback has been positive and we view this as a win-win transaction for both parties.
Speaker #3: Plains will exit the Canadian NGO market at an attractive valuation while Kiera will receive highly complementary and critical infrastructure in a egic market. From a Plains perspective and as highlighted on slide four, this transaction will result in a streamlined crude oil mistering entity with less commodity exposure, a more durable and steady cash flow stream, and substantial financial flexibility to further execute on our capital allocation framework.
Speaker #3: With approximately $3 billion of net proceeds from the sale, we expect to continue focusing on disciplined bolt-on M&A, to extend and expand our crude oil focus portfolio, as well as opportunities to optimize our capital structure including potential repurchases of Series A and B preferred units, along with opportunistic common unit repurchases.
Speaker #3: Building upon the foundation of our disciplined capital allocation framework, we announced a bolt-on acquisition of an additional 20% interest in Bridgetex Pipeline Company LLC, for an aggregate cash consideration of $100 million net to Plains.
Speaker #3: This brings our overall interest in the joint venture to 40%, both Plains and One Oak have extensive upstream gathering systems and both companies are committed to optimizing the operating capacity on the pipeline.
Speaker #3: In addition, this transaction is expected to provide risk-adjusted returns in line with Plains' bolt-on framework. Year to date, we've completed five bolt-on transactions, totaling approximately $800 million.
Speaker #3: And we've consistently maintained the view that there is a runway of opportunities for Plains to advance its bolt-on strategy. As illustrated on slide five and as proven, over the last few years, we continue to execute on that backlog of opportunities.
Speaker #3: Additionally, the financial flexibility that will be created by our recent NGO announcement further enhances our commitment and capacity to pursue these and other opportunities provided they offer the attractive returns.
Speaker #3: With that, I'll turn the call over to Al.
Speaker #4: Thank you, Willie. Prior to discussing further details of our second quarter results, I would like to reiterate that following our NGO announcement, the majority of the NGO segment has been reclassified as discontinued operations.
Speaker #4: To ensure consistent financial disclosure to the market, we have also included pertinent information reconciling these changes with our original 2025 guidance for the NGO segment.
Speaker #4: Turning to the second quarter, we reported crude oil segment adjusted EBITDA of $580,000,000, which benefited sequentially from Permian volume growth, contributions from recent bolt-on acquisitions, and higher throughput associated with our refiner customers returning from downtime in the first quarter of 2025.
Speaker #4: Moving to the NGO segment, reported adjusted EBITDA of $87 million dollars, which stepped down sequentially due to normal seasonality and lower quarter-on-quarter forex spreads.
Speaker #4: Slide six and seven in today's presentation contain adjusted EBITDA walks that provide additional details on our performance. Regarding guidance, our full year 2025 EBITDA range of 2.8 to 2.95 billion dollars remains intact.
Speaker #4: Consistent with our communication last quarter in the prevailing environment, both our EBITDA guidance and the Permian growth outlook of 200 to 300,000 barrels per day would likely be in the lower half of their respective ranges.
Speaker #4: A summary of our 2025 guidance metrics is located on slide eight. As for capital allocation, which is illustrated on slide nine, for 2025, we expect to generate approximately $870 million dollars of adjusted free cash flow excluding changes in assets and liabilities.
Speaker #4: Our adjusted free cash flow guidance reflects the impact of bolt-on acquisitions including the acquisition of the interest in Bridgetex Pipeline as well as our revised 2025 growth capital guidance, which has increased $75 million dollars to $475 million.
Speaker #4: The capital investment increase is primarily associated with new projects, including Permian and South Texas lease connects, as well as Permian terminal expansions, in addition to weather delays and scope changes on other projects.
Speaker #4: While 2025 growth capital is above our initial guidance, maintenance capital is trending closer to $230 million dollars, which is $10 million below our initial forecast.
Speaker #4: With that, I'll turn the call back to Willie.
Speaker #3: Thanks, Al. As illustrated on slide 10, we've made significant progress on our strategy over the last several years. This begins with a portfolio of world-class assets, where value has been unlocked through the capabilities of our Plains team along with collaboration with our ustomers.
Speaker #3: Our strategy is grounded in our established financial priorities, with a focus on generating substantial free cash flow, maintaining financial flexibility, and increasing return of capital to our unit holders through disciplined execution in each of these areas.
Speaker #3: The divestiture of our NGO business marks a significant step in the strategic direction of Plains. By reallocating resources and capital towards our legacy crude oil operations, where we have significant size and scale, we will be better positioned to enhance our focus on the portfolio. This move not only increases our financial flexibility, but it also underscores our resolve to streamline operations and drive growth while generating strong returns for our unitholders.
Speaker #3: Our strategy centers on the view that crude oil will remain essential to global energy and society for decades. Despite near-term volatility, we're confident in our ility to navigate current market dynamics.
Speaker #3: And we expect fundamentals to improve longer term due to continued population and economic growth driving demand, we anticipate that new OPEC+ supply will be absorbed, reducing spare capacity, and limited long lead project and resource additions will increase the reliance on North American onshore production.
Speaker #3: Plains will continue to be a vital infrastructure provider to meeting the growing need for reliable energy across global markets. In closing, our efficient growth strategy, financial flexibility, and commitment to execution have positioned well to capitalize on opportunities managed challenges with resilience.
Speaker #3: I'm confident in our position. And at this point, we'll look forward to your questions. Blake, you lead us into Q&A?
Speaker #4: Thanks, Willie. As we answer the Q&A session, please limit yourself to two questions. For those with additional questions, please feel free return to the queue.
Speaker #4: This will allow us to address questions from as many participants as possible in our available time this morning. The IR team will also be available after the call to address any additional questions you may have.
Speaker #4: Latif, would you please open the call for questions?
Speaker #5: Sir, as a reminder to ask a question, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster.
Speaker #5: Our first question: comes from the line of Manal Gupta of UBS. Please go ahead, Manal.
Speaker #6: Hi, this is Sonia on for Manal. Good morning and congrats on the quarter. When you think about assets in the mid-con, there may be more one-time step-ups in synergy versus the Permian that could have more organic growth on top of that.
Speaker #6: So when we look at more bolt-on strategies and M&A, how do you factor in the sensitivity to basin-level growth? And in general, with basins, are you seeing more growth over time?
Speaker #7: Sonia, good morning. This is Jeremy. Here's at I would say. We take all that into consideration. And candidly, as we've said before, we're a DCF shop.
Speaker #7: And we're looking for discounted cash flow over time and contributions you have to look at the integrated network. So take the mid-con in, for instance, which your example.
Speaker #7: We have a lot of assets that touch a lot of other areas. So things that could impact cushing or other downstream pipelines, may have multiple touchpoints.
Speaker #7: So while the Permian has different resource, we look at them independently and use market fundamentals to drive and outlook of cash flows. And we use a discounted cash flow.
Speaker #7: And we have to feed our return thresholds cost accounted by 3 to 500 basis points as we've said. So we take all that into consideration.
Speaker #7: We're not necessarily going to say where our target area is right now, but we do look at everything. And we've got to hit our return thresholds.
Speaker #7: And we certainly take look at fundamentals and the multiple touchpoints we can have in each area.
Speaker #6: Got it. Thank you. And then on the macro side more, could you provide some color on, I guess, real-time demand signals and any sign of slowdown or anything you're seeing on the refining or on the export side?
Speaker #7: Yes, ma'am. This is Jeremy again. Here's what I would say: I would follow the refiners. They've all talked about improving diesel demand and feel like it's strong.
Speaker #7: The last six months felt a lot better than the prior six months from a demand perspective. We haven't seen the slowdown in demand most we're ecting.
Speaker #7: And we expect that to continue. Willie mentioned that in his notes. So I'd say continue to follow the refiners and their demand. We're not seeing the issues any issues from the downstream refining signals from crack spreads internationally and domestically.
Speaker #7: Differentials do move. And that's some indication. But over the last six-month period, we've seen strengthening demand. And we look forward to that continuing.
Speaker #4: Yes, Sonia, this is Willie, one comment I would add to that is that we're all watching a lot of uncertainty certainly over the last number of months and even years.
Speaker #4: Our view is continued short-term volatility; longer-term, we are more constructive. And where I would tell you our view is, despite a lot of the uncertainties, I have more confidence in the world and its ability to continue to grow than I did probably over the past year.
Speaker #4: So our views are pretty constructive, but still think there's going to be a lot volatility short-term.
Speaker #6: Great. Thank ou.
Speaker #7: Thank ou.
Speaker #5: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Gabriel Maureen of Mizuho. Please go ahead, Gabriel.
Speaker #8: Good morning, everyone. Can I just ask about the Bridgetex deal and maybe talk about how that pipe is situated currently contractually, and how it would fit with the rest of your business?
Speaker #8: The value also seems to be little bit, you know, changed from what it may have transacted out in the past. So if you can speak to that as well.
Speaker #7: I gave this is Jeremy. We're excited about the outcome consolidating that interest with One Oak. I think from a contracting perspective, it's best to speak with them.
Speaker #7: But one thing is, as part of this transaction, we worked with One Oak to optimize the cost structure going forward. As well as to consider commercial ways to fill the pipeline from a plant to unite Plains and One Oak's gathering systems to help keep the ipeline full.
Speaker #7: So I think us working together will strengthen the positioning of the pipeline longer term.
Speaker #8: Thanks, Jeremy. And then maybe if I can ask in terms of some the CapEx ins and outs on the growth CapEx raise here, for the lease connects South Texas and the Permian, does that imply some degree of greater activity than you had been seeing?
Speaker #8: Or is it just, you ow, some degree of noise in s of just things going on during the course of the year?
Speaker #7: Hey, good morning, Gabe. It's Chris Chandler. I'll take this one. So yeah, we have increased our 2025 investment CapEx guide to $475 million. That's the Plains.
Speaker #7: We've developed some new opportunities related to the Permian and Eagleford gathering. As you ioned, in additional storage opportunities in the Permian. Some of this is basin growth related, but some of it's frankly capturing business that we did not have before.
Speaker #7: They're od investments. They exceed our return thresholds. And they weren't in our original guidance. Hence, being a new opportunity. So I hope that helps.
Speaker #8: Appreciate . Thanks, Chris.
Speaker #7: Good.
Speaker #5: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Bloom of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead, Michael.
Speaker #9: Thanks, good evening, everyone. Willie, I want to ask kind of a big picture question. You addressed some of this at the end of your remarks.
Speaker #9: But you've made a big step here. You've exited the NGO business in Canada. You're now more or less solely focused on crude. So my question is, is the plan to simply execute the growth and capital return strategy as is, as you've doing?
Speaker #9: Or could you see the company pivoting or diversifying into another area whether that be expanding the crude footprint more expansively or getting into a whole different line of business?
Speaker #9: Just want to get your sort of -level thoughts there.
Speaker #7: Sure, Michael. Going to a pure play was not the objective, right? Our objective is to create value for the unit holders however we possibly can.
Speaker #7: And so for us, you know, 've articulated this efficient growth strategy. And we've been executing on being able to unlock that. Now, practically speaking, our business was roughly 80, 85% crude, 15, 20% NGO.
Speaker #7: By being able to do this, the transaction, it really catalyzes a lot of opportunities for us. Within Plains, which is why I spend a little more time in my prepared comments talking about that.
Speaker #7: One, we're ing to be able to redeploy approximately $3 billion can't say exactly how it's going to redeployed. But there's a number of opportunities that we've articulated on the bolt-on acquisitions.
Speaker #7: Capital structure, opportunistic unit buybacks. And if you think about the cash flow that we've sold at a great valuation, we think we can do better.
Speaker #7: Redeploying it in the liquids business. So when you think about how do you create value, it's all around synergies. And it's difficult to capture synergies if you 't have a strong position.
Speaker #7: Somewhere. So this is kind of a long-winded answer of saying we're ing to stick to what we know. We've got size and scale. Really, a premier competitor in the industry.
Speaker #7: Providing a lot of services for our ustomers. And we're going to parlay on that and try to build even a stronger system. Kind anchored on the platform of our constructive view of oil markets going forward.
Speaker #7: So if there are other opportunities that we can whether it's in different basins or other commodities, we absolutely look at all those. 've got a very robust BD team.
Speaker #7: But practically speaking, I think you're going to see of it around the crude assets. And we've got we feel we have a good runway of opportunities to look .
Speaker #7: So hopefully, that's helpful.
Speaker #5: It is. So, thank you for that. And then taking the one to ask, I might be nitpicking here, so apologies up front. But on slide nine, the language on distribution growth changed a little bit.
Speaker #5: It used to say targeting multi-year sustainable distribution growth. And this latest slide deck says targeting sustainable distribution growth. So I just wanted to see if there's a shift in messaging there that we should be aware of.
Speaker #5: Thanks.
Speaker #7: Hey, Michael. This is Al. No intended shift in messaging at all. We intend to grow our distribution over a multi-year period. So no intent there.
Speaker #7: Clearly, in the very interim time, as Willie mentioned, we need to redeploy these proceeds. We fully expect to redeploy them in a ay that's accretive to DCF.
Speaker #7: Which would further enhance our ability to grow the dividend.
Speaker #5: Thank you.
Speaker #3: Thanks, Michael.
Speaker #5: Thank you. Our xt estion: comes from the line of Spiro Dunas of City. Please go ahead, Spiro.
Speaker #10: Thanks, operator. Good morning, gentlemen. I want to first ask about the second half of '25. The guidance seems to suggest maybe a similar second half to the first half.
Speaker #10: If , maybe even a little bit lower. And so I'm curious is that consistent with how you're doing the back half of the year?
Speaker #10: And I guess why would that be the case? It seemed ike volumes are trending up kind of nicely this quarter. Willie, I know you mentioned some volatility out there.
Speaker #10: So maybe it's just that. But you've also got the contribution from some bolt-on. So just looking to get some color there in the back half.
Speaker #11: Good morning, Spiro. It's emy. Just remember, we have the contract roll-offs of Cactus II, Cactus I, and Sunrise in the second half of the year.
Speaker #11: All consistent with guidance. So those roll-offs of the contract rates, all those volumes have been re-contracted. It's a function of rates being lower. So you had those contributions in the first half.
Speaker #11: You're going to have the growing production the perk escalator. And other pieces contributing to backfill that. So while it may look flat, ou've backfilled some of the roll-offs of the contracts with growth.
Speaker #10: Got it. So Jeremy, thank you. Second question, just maybe comes to the bolt-on strategy again. I guess as we think about your ability to keep doing these bolt-ons for the rest of the year, pending that NGO sale, I don't imagine you're going to want to pre-spend that $3 billion dollars.
Speaker #10: But as you do think about getting those proceeds, you could obviously do a lot more than a bolt-on with that $3 billion. So I guess I'm just curious how you're weighing the ability or maybe the potential to do ething larger.
Speaker #11: Well, Spiro, it's very difficult to time all these things as ou well know. Which is why I mentioned our robust BD team looking a lot of things.
Speaker #11: What I would tell you is that's the other reason of our financial flexibility, creating a lot of capacity on our balance sheet. To be able absorb some of that.
Speaker #11: So where I think we're positioned, where we are positioned at is we look at a lot of opportunities. And as they come up, 're trying to put ourselves in the best position to be able to execute on them, whether they're small, medium, or even large.
Speaker #11: So I'll leave it at that.
Speaker #10: I'll pose always. Thank you, gentlemen. ave a good weekend.
Speaker #11: Thank ou.
Speaker #5: Thank you. Our next question: comes from the line of Sunil Sabal of Seaport Global. Please go ahead, Sunil.
Speaker #9: Yes. Hi. Good morning. And most of my bigger questions have been heard. But I just wanted to clarify a couple of things. On the Bridgetex, so you're buying that as part of the Oryx JV?
Speaker #9: Correct?
Speaker #7: Sunil, this is Jeremy. No, that's independent. That is Plains purchasing that. We're an existing owner in the JV. And for One Oak and Plains, we're buying a proportionate to their interest in the pipelines.
Speaker #9: Okay. Understood. And then in terms of the overall positioning, it seems like you're still retaining some US NGO business. If that's correct, you know is there a bigger strategy there?
Speaker #9: Or how should we think about you ow that piece of the business going forward?
Speaker #7: Sunil, that's very minor. And relative to the entire asset base, those were smaller contributors. And from a tax perspective and operations perspective, it made sense for us to retain.
Speaker #7: And we'll look to monetize those at a later date. But I would say that's not part of the larger TS. It's more likely we'll divest those than retain them.
Speaker #9: Got it. Thank you.
Speaker #7: Thanks, Sunil.
Speaker #5: Thank you. Our next question: comes from the line of John Mackay of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, John.
Speaker #12: Hey, guys. Thank you for the time. I just wanted to touch on the CapEx piece again. This year, how much of that increase do you think is actually a pickup in producer activity overall relative to what you're expecting?
Speaker #12: Maybe that's more of just a, you know, you guys had some commercial success, but it's not necessarily pointing to kind of a broader macro theme.
Speaker #12: And then maybe just taking that next looking forward, you ow, why shouldn't we think of the kind of run rate CapEx number moving up a little bit if you guys were able to get these wins?
Speaker #12: Thanks.
Speaker #7: John, it's Chris Chandler. I'll take that. It's really a combination of all the above, the factors that you ioned. You know, there's certainly new opportunities that we didn't anticipate coming into the year.
Speaker #7: And those played a role. I'd also, you know, point out our continued bolt-on acquisition strategy. It brings new opportunities for synergy capture and expansion around those assets where we didn't have operations before.
Speaker #7: So it's really a kind an all-of-the-above when you think in the 2026 on investment capital spend, we're obviously not giving guidance at this point in time.
Speaker #7: We'll do that in early 2026. You can look at how much we're spending on NGOs this year, which is above average compared to prior years.
Speaker #7: So you ow we would expect that to step down when the NGO sale to Kiera closes. But we continue to be successful identifying new opportunities.
Speaker #7: So you know in respect of identifying and capturing those projects, that meet our investment thresholds, you ow we'd love to grow CapEx modestly because of the good opportunities that we're able to capture.
Speaker #4: Hey, John, it's Blake. If you don't mind real quick, I want to add, just as a reminder, the '25 CapEx program includes about 30 or 40 million of deferrals from last year.
Speaker #4: So that might help you think the progression into '26.
Speaker #12: That makes sense. That's helpful. And then maybe just going back to your comments on the retained NGO assets, I think your answer before made sense.
Speaker #12: I understand they're . But are you guys able just to quantify for us again what that looks like right now? And then maybe is that is any of that reflecting kind of a '25 spread environment?
Speaker #12: Or is that a pretty good, you know, whatever you share, is that a pretty good number going forward? For now, at least.
Speaker #7: I could put that in the 10 to 15 million of EBITDA category. And just from a valuation standpoint, think of the hundreds to 200 million.
Speaker #7: Right.
Speaker #12: That's pful. I appreciate that. Thank you guys for the time.
Speaker #7: Thanks, John.
Speaker #5: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brandon Bingham of Scotiabank. Please go ahead, Brandon.
Speaker #10: Good morning. Thanks for taking the estions here. Just one quick one for me. I know it says in the slides that you still expect to come in towards the lower end of the EBITDA guide.
Speaker #10: But things have improved, even just slightly, versus all the Q1 chaos. So, just kind of curious where you see that as we move forward throughout the year and whether or not there's a higher likelihood now that we could be back towards the midpoint.
Speaker #7: This is Al. I'll take a ot at it. I think we the wording should have been lower half. So we weren't trying to point at the low end.
Speaker #7: By any means, if that's what is if that's what the question was. And we believe the lower half would be how we're trying to guide it.
Speaker #7: We're not trying to guide you to the midpoint or the bottom end. just the lower half. Clearly, there's a period of time here prices have been fairly volatile.
Speaker #7: I think crude oil today is roughly where we articulated the range to be a quarter ago. In the 60 to 65 range. I think we're kind of at the high end of that now.
Speaker #7: So more time to come with regard to that. But we would kind point you to the lower half, not the lower end.
Speaker #10: Okay. Apologies. I might have misread. But thank ou.
Speaker #5: Thank ou. And now I'd ike to turn the conference back to management for closing remarks.
Speaker #7: Latif, thanks. And thanks to everyone for joining us today. We'll look forward to giving you more updates and we'll see you on the road.
Speaker #7: Have a great day and a great weekend.