Q2 2025 Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp Earnings Call

Speaker #1: Thank you for standing by. My name is Kathleen, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Triple Flag Precious Metals second quarter 2025 conference call.

Speaker #1: All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers remark, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad.

Speaker #1: And if you would like to withdraw your question, press the star one again. And now, I would like to turn the call over to Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO.

Speaker #1: Please go ahead.

Speaker #2: Thank you, Kathleen. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss Triple Flag second quarter of 2025 results. Today, I'm joined by our CFO, Eban Bari.

Speaker #2: Triple Flag achieved another record quarter in Q2. Sales of nearly 29,000 GEOs drove record-adjusted EBITDA of $76 million, and most importantly, record operating cash flow of 38 cents US per share.

Speaker #2: Given our strong margins at consistently exceeding 90%, these record results demonstrate Triple Flag's ability to realize higher per-share cash flows in today's strong gold and silver price environment.

Speaker #2: This strong performance has also positioned us well to deliver our 2025 guidance of $105,000 to $115,000 ounces over the balance of the year. On deal front, we have maintained a solid pace of accretive acquisitions during the first half of 2025.

Speaker #2: Most of these transactions have focused on tuck-in investments into near-term production starts. Including the Trey Corvades lithium mine in Argentina, the Arcada and Azuka silver mines in Peru, as well as the newly announced additional 1.5% gross revenue royalty on the Johnson Camp copper mine in Arizona.

Speaker #2: All of these three acquisitions are expected to deliver first revenue in the second half of this year. Notably, we also completed our acquisition of a 1% NSR royalty on the world-class Arthur Gold project located in Nevada, formerly known as the Expanded Silicon Project.

Speaker #2: Operated by Anglo Gold Ashanti, this project offers exceptional long-term growth potential, underpinned by a rapidly expanding resource base and significant exploration upside. This asset represents tremendous value for our shareholders, and I would like thank the Triple Flag and Origin teams for their hard work and dedication in completing this transaction.

Speaker #2: We are very excited about the Arthur project. Anglo Gold's CEO made quite positive statements about Arthur last week, and I think that our areholders are really going to benefit from our exposure to this project in the ure.

Speaker #2: Turning back to organic growth, the most powerful and value-driving aspect of the royalty and streaming model is the free-carried optionality that Triple Flag has on our assets, as our operators continue to search for new exploration discoveries, replace reserves, and expand their assets.

Speaker #2: Triple Flag has $4.75% exposure to West Gold's Beta Hunt mine in Australia. In Q2, West Gold declared a maiden resource for the Fletcher zone of $2.3 million ounces.

Speaker #2: This nearly doubles the total resource base at Beta Hunt, with significant exploration potential at depth and along strike. West Gold's rapid progress from the announcement of the initial discovery target at the Fletcher zone last September to the declaration of a maiden resource in June is a testament to the quality and embedded value within our portfolio.

Speaker #2: I'll touch more on the Fletcher zone later on in the presentation. Finally, an important pillar of our capital allocation strategy remains returns to shareholders.

Speaker #2: We are pleased to announce our fourth consecutive annual increase of our dividend since we listed in 2021. I will now ask Eban to discuss our financials for the second quarter of 2025.

Speaker #3: Thank you, Sheldon. As noted, we had a very strong second quarter with portfolio producing nearly $29,000 GEOs, resulting in a record first half of over $57,000 GEOs.

Speaker #3: This puts Triple Flag right on track to achieve our 2025 sales guidance. These strong volumes were delivered amid the backdrop of record precious metals prices as well as continuing strong margins.

Speaker #3: Accordingly, we're pleased to highlight that operating cash flow per share, the single most important metric we focus on as a company, has increased by over 50% year over year to a new quarterly record.

Speaker #3: We view a progressively growing dividend as a core part of our capital allocation strategy. Our dividend has been increased 23 cents US on an annualized basis up 5% from prior dividend.

Speaker #3: I'm proud that we have increased our dividend every year since our IPO. Lastly, I'd like to comment on our balance sheet. We exited the quarter with zero debt, and even with a capital deployed early in Q3 for the Arthur royalty, we expect to be in net cash position by the end of Q3 at current metal price.

Speaker #3: Overall, a clean and strong balance sheet, robust operating cash flows, and total liquidity available of nearly a billion dollars gives us the capital to continue to deploy dollars into accretive opportunities to drive future growth for the benefit of shareholders.

Speaker #3: Moving ahead, we highlight three key aspects of our investment thesis that remain unchanged. Namely, top-tier assets, precious metals focus, and a portfolio which is predominantly centered in Australia and the Americas.

Speaker #3: North Parks and Sarah Lindo continue to be the two largest contributors to revenues. North Parks had a record quarter due to processing of higher open-pick grades from stock pod ore, while Sarah Lindo received a strong benefit from the rapid rise in silver prices towards the end of the quarter.

Speaker #3: Overall, revenues derived 100% from precious metals with roughly two-thirds from gold. This pure play exposure ranks amongst the highest in the sector and offers investors exposure to the many favorable tailwinds for both gold and silver.

Speaker #3: Finally, our portfolio has proven dominantly located in mining-friendly jurisdictions. A key criteria we look to expand our portfolio through acquisitions. In Q2, 90% of our revenue was derived from assets in Australia and the Americas.

Speaker #3: I will now turn it over to Sheldon to discuss Beta Hunt and the new maiden resource at the Fletcher zone.

Speaker #2: Thank you, Eban. Beta Hunt is an underground gold mine located in western Australia and operated by West Gold. We have several gold royalty interests on the asset, including a $3.25% on gross revenue and a $1.5% NSR.

Speaker #2: These royalties were acquired through our acquisition of Maverick Metals in early 2023 and last quarter represented our third largest source of revenue. The positive news flow from this asset has been meaningful over the past year.

Speaker #2: In addition to exploration success currently anchored by the Fletcher zone maiden resource, West Gold is advancing an expansion project for the asset to achieve consistent mine throughput of 2 million tons per annum.

Speaker #2: With the declaration of a maiden resource of $2.3 million ounces at Fletcher zone, that nearly doubles the previous resource base at Beta Hunt, there is also now scope for further expansion potential above 2 million tons per annum.

Speaker #2: This is particularly important as the Fletcher zone is located only 50 meters from the western flank system, which is currently the main source of ore at Beta Hunt.

Speaker #2: This maiden resource was achieved from only one kilometer of a known two-kilometer strike, highlighting the potential for upside at Beta Hunt. The resource is also open at depth.

Speaker #2: Given the significant discovery, we look forward to seeing how the Fletcher zone will ultimately be optimized within an expanded Beta Hunt operation by West Gold.

Speaker #2: Several catalysts are upcoming, which should provide a preview of the near-term future, including a three-year company-wide outlook in September and an initial reserve for the Fletcher zone in West Gold's fiscal year 2026.

Speaker #2: To close, I'd like to state that we had a strong first half in 2025 and our well-positioned to achieve 2025 guidance over the remainder of the year.

Speaker #2: We saw robust growth in operating cash flow per share and delivered both tuck-in and large-scale transactions that will benefit our areholders for decades to come.

Speaker #2: Triple Flag has a strong track record of GEO growth, and we look forward to seeing the delivery of several catalysts across our portfolio. These include the commencement of production at Johnson Camp mines, Arcada, and Trey vades as well as development progress with the E48 sub-level cave at North Parks, and at the Kone Hope Bay and Arthur projects.

Speaker #2: I'd also like to specifically call out some positive news announced by our operators yesterday. Centera announced that it will rapidly advance its Nevada Goldfield project.

Speaker #2: Triple Flag holds a 5% royalty on the gemfield deposit, which accounts for approximately 80% of Goldfield production. Talon Metals also announced a very interesting drill result on its Minnesota Tamarack project.

Speaker #2: These results are within our yalty coverage. Looking ahead, our transaction pipeline remains very robust, and we are excited by the significant opportunity ahead for our business to deliver further value.

Speaker #2: Kathleen, please open the floor to questions.

Speaker #1: Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join queue.

Speaker #1: And if you would like to withdraw your question, simply press the star one again. If you are called upon to ask your question and listening by a loudspeaker on your device, please pick up your handset and ensure that your phone is not on mute when asking your question.

Speaker #1: Again, please press star one to join the queue. Your first question comes from the line of Josh Walson of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Speaker #4: Yeah. Thank you very much. First question is just on Gunnison. The royalty additional purchase here looks to be done at a very attractive price.

Speaker #4: You know, sub three times cash flow based on what the company's guidance is. I'm just ondering, from the overall royalty, you know, what should we be expecting as a steady-state production that Triple Flag is estimating?

Speaker #4: Thank ou.

Speaker #2: Thanks, Josh. Yeah. So the Johnson Camp royalty, it's not a large amount in total, as you pointed out, it's fairly small. Purchase price we have on that.

Speaker #2: I don't believe we're going be giving any asset-specific guidance on that. But you know, it's a little bit of incremental copper exposure. think it's quite attractive.

Speaker #2: And I think, as ou noted, in addition to this, we picked up an additional $1.5%. We already held a 1.5%, and the Johnson Camp mine is also subject to the stream area, so we'll benefit in that way.

Speaker #2: But we're not giving asset by asset guidance.

Speaker #4: Okay, got it. And then on ATO and some of the additional disclosures here, I guess first, you know, what would be the process here for Triple Flag to enforce their security on the stream?

Speaker #4: And then as a follow-up, you know, how does that affect the operators' credit situation and their, I guess, their current restructuring process?

Speaker #2: Yeah. Thanks, Josh. I just want to set the context for this skeptical old disclosure that we had. The current amount of the arrears that Steph owes us is circa $8 million US, so it's not a tremendous amount of money.

Speaker #2: And Steph actually has over a $300 million Canadian market cap. So I believe that they're able to pay. Historically, we've had a very good relationship with the Steph Gold management team.

Speaker #2: We actually made our initial investment in Steph in 2017. Our initial investment was $28 million. To date, we have realized over $50 million in cash flows from that investment.

Speaker #2: So it's been really lucrative for us. In '23, sorry, in July of '25, sorry, '24, I'm getting mistaken up here. Brew acquired a controlling interest in Steph Gold.

Speaker #2: And the relationship changed. So Brew is a private mining company. It's based in Singapore. They're quite a successful group. They acquired the Lagunas Norte asset from Barrick in '21, and they've done very well with that.

Speaker #2: And they acquired Steph in order to get access to the phase two development at ATO. Brew was well aware that the stream was in place when they acquired their interest in Steph.

Speaker #2: Parties related to Brew approached us and asked us about buying out our interest. We were not interested in that. And the phase one oxides at ATO are coming to an end, and Steph is targeting phase two production in 2026 and 2027.

Speaker #2: And that's based on their public disclosure. We didn't agree to the delivery halt. We do have a parent guarantee from Steph Gold. They are a producing gold company.

Speaker #2: According to their public disclosure, they've called for over $74,000 ounces of production in 2025. And there's value in the phase two project. To me, it's very clear there's value in phase two.

Speaker #2: The price of gold has increased significantly since Brew acquired its interest in Steph. So I don't want to talk about the specifics of how, you ow, things might be enforced.

Speaker #2: I feel very comfortable with our position. We are in dialogue with Steph. They understand our position very clearly. And I really can't say any more as it's a legal dispute.

Speaker #4: Got it. Thank you. And then maybe one last question on that. Is there any ability to quantify, I guess, at Triple Flag's assumed production from this asset is?

Speaker #4: Maybe in 2025 within the current guidance?

Speaker #2: Yeah. Again, I don't give asset by asset guidance, but I guess I'll say this. I feel very comfortable with our guidance for 2025. And even if we don't get a single ounce from ATO, I'm still comfortable with our guidance for 2025.

Speaker #4: Okay. Thank you very much.

Speaker #2: Thank you.

Speaker #1: Your next question comes from the line of Fahad Tariq of Jeffries. Please go ahead.

Speaker #5: Hi. Thanks for taking my estion. Maybe just looking ahead to 2026, it looks like production is declining mainly due to North Parks. The high-grade stockpiles deplete by the end of this year from E31.

Speaker #5: And you also have a step down in stream rate at Sarah Lindo. Can you just maybe walk through? I know you don't want to do et by asset guidance, but maybe just at a high level, where could potential offsets come from to get to offset some of the lower production at North Parks and Sarah Lindo?

Speaker #5: Thanks.

Speaker #2: Yeah. Hi, Fahad. As you noted, like we'll get better picture on where North Parks is coming in. As the year goes on, evolution mining has a June 30 year-end.

Speaker #2: And so what we'll solidify, what 're seeing from 2026, you know, as we get further into this year. And as you point out, Sarah Lindo does have a step down coming, which is really a testament to the success of that investment and is still going to be quite a successful asset for us going forward.

Speaker #2: In terms of offsets, mean, it's quite a robust portfolio profile going forward. I mean, one of the things I'd point to is the Arcada mine.

Speaker #2: It should be coming on stream later this year. We also have the Johnson Camp mine coming online this year. We'll see some production from that.

Speaker #2: Existing portfolio, we are also seeing a step ups in production at a few other sources as well. But as you kind correctly pointed out, and I said before, I don't want to get in the asset by asset specific guidance too much.

Speaker #5: Okay. I appreciate that. And then maybe just second question and last one for me. On kind of deal flow and kind of what's in the pipe, what you're seeing out there effectively, it looks like you've one a couple of smaller deals on non-precious metals.

Speaker #5: There was the Arthur Gold that was a bit larger. You know, maybe talk through what you're seeing in the deal pipeline and just thoughts philosophically on even corporate M&A.

Speaker #2: Yeah. And I'm going to give you an answer I ink which is pretty similar to what everyone else is saying, which is it's a really full pipeline.

Speaker #2: We continue to be active looking at many opportunities. It's a real mix of larger and smaller opportunities. I think our sweet spot remains in the $100 million to $300 million range.

Speaker #2: And if we're definitely looking at some that fall even at the higher end of that range. We are looking at some opportunities that are below that range, as well.

Speaker #2: But you ow, if we see a chance to add value, we'll certainly take advantage of that. The pipeline right now is really focused on good jurisdictions that I think our shareholders would really like.

Speaker #2: I don't know what color I give you really beyond that. You did ask about like corporate consolidation. In theory, I think in general, I'm quite in favor of consolidation.

Speaker #2: You know, and corporate M&A opportunities. We had a very successful experience with the Maverick Metals acquisition. You know, I ked about Beta Hunt on the presentation.

Speaker #2: That was a averick's asset. Hope Bay has done really well. Kensington has done well. Kone has done really well out of that. So I think there's tremendous value opportunity for value there.

Speaker #2: So in general, we think that there's attractive opportunities.

Speaker #5: Okay. Great. Thank ou.

Speaker #1: Your next question comes from the line of Tanya Jacuzcanek of Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Speaker #6: Good morning, everybody. Thank you for taking my question. Some have been already asked, so I'll just refine a few other points I needed clarification on.

Speaker #6: Just on your pipeline, the 100 to 300 million range, I'm assuming it's all precious metals that lithium one was just an offset. Would that be correct?

Speaker #2: Yeah. Hi, Tanya. Yeah. Predominantly, the pipeline is full of precious metals opportunity. And you're right. The lithium was very much an opportunistic investment where we ought we had a very attractive opportunity.

Speaker #2: So we're not focused on lithium or battery metals.

Speaker #6: Okay. And would you say your 100 to 300 million is that mainly development or are you looking at more near-stage production portfolio, let's say?

Speaker #2: Again, it's a mix. There's actually probably a good number of actual producing opportunities in there.

Speaker #6: Okay. And would I assume also that the, you know, any streams that you're looking at would also involve equity investments and/or debt participation as well?

Speaker #2: No, I wouldn't assume that at all. think that's really specific opportunity by opportunity sort of thing. You know, we've been quite clear we prefer to focus our investment dollars on streams and royalties.

Speaker #2: I think that's what our investors are looking for. We are open to it in fairly small proportions on an as-needed basis. But that's certainly not our focus.

Speaker #6: Okay. And then my last question on just on this is safe jurisdictions that you've talked . Some of the other opportunities we've seen lately have been in Africa.

Speaker #6: Is it safe to assume that you're still focusing on the Americas and Australia?

Speaker #2: Yeah. Definitely the focus is Americas and Australia. You know, Africa I think you have to distinguish between different jurisdictions. But you ow, the bulk of the pipeline actually Americas and Australia.

Speaker #6: Okay. Thank you so much for taking my questions.

Speaker #2: Thank ou.

Speaker #1: Once again, if you would like to ask a estion, please press star one to join the queue. We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster.

Speaker #1: And there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference back over to Sheldon Vanderkooi for closing remarks.

Speaker #2: Yeah. Thank you, Kathleen. And thank you, yone, for joining us. We feel like you had a really great quarter, and we're looking forward for the balance of the year.

Speaker #2: Thank you all. Bye.