Q2 2025 Gates Industrial Corp PLC Earnings Call
Eric: Thank you for standing by. My name is Eric, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Gates Industrial Corporation Q2 2025 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one again. I would now like to turn the call over to Rich Kwas, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you for standing by. My name is Eric, and I will be your conference operator today.
At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the gates Industrial Corporation, Q2 2025 earnings call.
All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.
After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad,
If you would like to withdraw your question, press star 1 again.
I would now like to turn the call over to Rich Claus. Vice president ambassador relations.
Rich Kwas: Greetings, and thank you for joining us on our second quarter 2025 earnings call. I'll briefly cover our non-GAAP and forward-looking language before passing the call over to our CEO, Ivo Jurek. He'll be followed by Brooks Mallard, our CFO. For the market open today, we published our second quarter 2025 results. A copy of the release is available on our website at investors.gates.com. Our call this morning is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation. On this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe are useful in evaluating our performance. Reconciliations of historical non-GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release and the slide presentation, each of which is available in the Investor Relations section of our website.
Please go ahead.
Greetings, and thank you for joining us on our second quarter 2025 earnings call.
I'll briefly cover our non-GAAP and forward-looking language before passing the call over to our CEO, Ivo Jurek.
Will be filed by Brooks marred or CFO.
For the market open, today we published our second-quarter 2025 results. A copy of the release is available on our website at investors.gates.com.
Our call this morning is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation.
On this call, we will refer to certain non-gaap Financial measures that we believe are useful and evaluating our performance.
Rich Kwas: Please refer now to slide two of the presentation, which provides a reminder that our remarks will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we've described in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and in other filings we make with the SEC, including our Q1 quarterly report on Form 10-Q that was filed in April 2025. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. This quarter, we'll be attending the Jefferies Industrials Conference, the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference, and the RBC Capital Markets Global Industrials Conference all in September and look forward to meeting many of you.
Reconciliations of historical, non-gaap Financial measures are included in our earnings release and the slide presentation, Each of, which is available in the investor relations section of our website.
Please refer now to slide 2 the presentation, which provides a reminder that our remarks will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the private Securities litigation form back.
These forward-looking statements are subject to risk that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements.
These risks include among others matters that we've described in our most recent annual report on form 10K. In another filings, we make with the secc, including our q1 quarterly report on form 10q that was filed in April 2025.
We disclaimed any obligation to update forward-looking statements.
Rich Kwas: Before we start, please note all comparisons are against the prior year period unless stated otherwise. And now I'll turn it over to Ivo.
This quarter, we will be attending the Jeffrey's Industrials Conference, the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference, and the RBC Capital Markets Global Industrials Conference, all in September. We look forward to meeting many of you.
Before we start, please note all comparisons are against the prior year period unless stated otherwise.
Ivo Jurek: Thank you, Rich. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our call today. Let's begin on slide three of the presentation. In the second quarter, Gates delivered solid results as revenues outperformed our guidance, supported by more favorable currency trends. Core revenue performance was in line with our April guidance. Core growth in our replacement channel was up, supported by low single-digit growth in both automotive and industrial. In the industrial end markets, personal mobility had another quarter of double-digit growth, and off-highway was flat, with growth in agriculture offsetting a decline in construction. We delivered solid operating performance in a quarter with adjusted EBITDA margin solidly exceeding 22%, in line with our expectations. Gross margin expanded 40 basis points, and we continue to make progress with our various enterprise initiatives. Our balance sheet continues to trend towards our short-term target of below two times net leverage.
And now I'll turn it over to Eva.
Thank you, Rich. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our call today.
Let's begin on, slide 3 of the presentation.
In a second quarter Gates delivered solid results. As revenues outperformed, our guidance supported by more favorable, currency expense.
Our revenue performance was in line with our April guidance.
Core growth in our replacement channel was up supported by low single digit growth in both automotive and Industrial.
In the industrial and markets personal mobility, we had another quarter of double-digit growth. The Highway segment was flat, with growth in agriculture offsetting a decline in construction.
We delivered solid operating performance in a quarter with adjusted. Evita margin solidly exceeding 22%.
In line with our expectations.
Gross margin expanded, 40 basis points and we continue to make progress with our various Enterprise initiatives.
Ivo Jurek: Our net leverage declined to 2.2 times at the quarter end. Our free cash flow grew year over year. We have updated our 2025 guidance, raising our adjusted EBITDA midpoint to $780 million and our adjusted EPS midpoint to $1.48. We have maintained our core growth midpoint of 1.5% and narrowed the range. Brooks will discuss the updated guidance in more detail later in the presentation. We continue to execute well in an uncertain macro environment, and we are focused on what we can control. Our in-region, for-region operational structure is proving itself effective as the enacted tariffs continue to fluctuate, and we have been able to mitigate the impact to our business. Please turn to slide four. Second quarter total sales were $884 million, which represented a 0.6% decline on a core basis. Foreign currency was slightly positive versus the prior year period.
Our balance sheet continues to trend towards our short-term target of below 2 times net leverage.
On net leverage, declined to 2.2 times as a quarter end.
Our free cash flow grew year-over-year.
We have updated our 2025 guidance, raising our adjusted EBITDA midpoint to $780 million.
In our adjusted EPS midpoint to $148.
Brooks will discuss the updated guidance in more detail later in the presentation.
We continue to execute well in an uncertain macro environment.
And we are focused on what we can control.
Our in Region 4 region. Operational structure is proving itself effective; the enacted tariffs continue to fluctuate.
And we have been able to mitigate the impact to our business.
Please turn to slide 4.
Second quarter, total sales were 884 million which represented a 0.6% decline on a core basis.
Ivo Jurek: During the second quarter, underlying demand conditions for our products were as expected. We experienced strong growth in personal mobility, which we had anticipated at the start of the year. Our replacement channels were constructive, posting low single-digit growth. Notably, the industrial replacement channel realized positive core growth for the first time since Q1 2023. Our automotive end market was approximately flat, with growth in auto replacement offset by a decline in auto OEM. Additionally, industrial OEM sales were under pressure, primarily due to soft demand in construction and on-highway. Adjusted EBITDA was $199 million, with adjusted EBITDA margin coming in at 22.5%, a decrease of 30 basis points. Of note, a one-time $7 million gain on a real estate transaction recognized in the year-ago period had an 80 basis point impact on the adjusted EBITDA margin comparison.
Foreign currency was slightly positive versus the prior year period.
During the second quarter, underlying demand conditions for our products. Where as expected.
We experienced strong growth in personal mobility, which we had anticipated at the start of the year.
Our replacement channels were constructed posting low single digit growth.
Notably, the industrial replacement channel realized positive core growth for the first time since Q1 2023.
Our automotive and Market was approximately flat with growth. In other replacement, offset by decline in Auto OEM.
Additionally industrial, OEM sales were under pressure primarily due to soft demand in construction and on Highway.
Adjusted EBITDA was $199 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin coming in at 22.5%, a decrease of 30 basis points.
Ivo Jurek: Gross margin was 40.8% in a quarter and has remained above 40% for five consecutive quarters despite uneven demand trends. We continue to progress towards our midterm margin targets for both gross profit margin and adjusted EBITDA margin. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.39, an increase of approximately 8%. Underlying operating performance contributed $0.04, partially offset by the non-recurring real estate gain of $0.02 recognized in a year-ago period and unfavorable foreign exchange of $0.01. Lower interest expense and lower share count contributed about $0.02 on combined basis. On slide five, we'll review our segment highlights. In the power transmission segment, we generated revenues of $550 million in a quarter and were up slightly on a core basis. High single-digit growth in industrial OEM sales was mostly offset by a decline in automotive OEM sales.
Of note the 1 time 7 million gain on a real estate transaction. Recognized in the year ago, period had an 80 basis. Point impact on the adjusted ibitta margin comparison.
Gross margin was 40.8% in a quarter.
and has remained above 40% for five consecutive quarters despite uneven demand trends.
We continue to progress towards our midterm. Margin targets for both gross, profit margin and adjusted ibitta margin.
Adjusted earnings per share was 39 cents.
An increase of approximately 8%.
Underlying operating performance contributed 4 cents, partially offset by the non-recurring. Real estate gain of 2 cents recognized in a year ago, period and unfavorable foreign exchange of 1 cent.
Lower its interest expense and lower share count contributed about 2 cents on a combined basis.
On slide 5, we will review our segment highlights.
In a power transmission segment, we generated revenues of 550 million dollars in a quarter and were up slightly on a core basis.
Ivo Jurek: Personal mobility grew 18% in a quarter, and we continue to execute well on the ramp-up of new designs. The replacement channel was stable, with slight growth year over year. We are investing in our commercial front-end and innovation in areas of strategic growth potential to position the company to capitalize on opportunities ahead of us. In the fluid power segment, our sales were $334 million, which translated to a 2.5% decrease on a core basis. End market dynamics were mixed in a quarter. On-highway was incrementally weaker as commercial truck production forecasts had been realized lower, particularly in North America. Softer construction demand continued; however, this was partially offset by low single-digit growth in agriculture, which is the first positive read since Q4 2022. We believe the ag market is close to the bottom of the current stocking cycle.
High single-digit growth in industrial and OEM sales was mostly offset by a decline in automotive OEM sales.
Pursue Mobility grew 18% in a quarter, and we continue to execute well on the ramp-up of new designs.
The replacement channel was stated with slight growth year-over-year.
We are investing in our commercial front, end and innovation in areas of strategic growth potential. The position the company to capitalize on opportunities ahead of us.
In a fluid power segment, our sales were $30,034 million, which translated to a 2.5% decrease on a core basis.
And market dynamics were mixed in a quarter.
On Highway was incrementally weaker as commercial truck production forecasts have been revised lower particularly in North America.
Softer construction demand continued; however, this was partially offset by low single-digit growth in agriculture, which is the first positive read since Q4 2022.
Ivo Jurek: Demand in the replacement business was healthy, supported by automotive and industrial, which each grew low single digits. Industrial OEM sales declined low double digits on a core basis. Additionally, we are beginning to see a meaningful acceleration of quoting and booking activity in the data center market, which we expect to positively benefit the fluid power segment towards the end of this year and mainly as we enter 2026. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the power transmission segment declined 50 basis points year over year, partly due to higher spending on research and development projects to support new product development in personal mobility and industrial chain development. Fluid power expanded adjusted EBITDA margins by 10 basis points and benefited from more stable revenue performance in the off-road markets and favorable replacement activity, partially offset by investments in data center initiatives.
We believe the egg market is close to the bottom of the current distracting cycle.
Supported by automotive and Industrial which each grew low single digits.
Industrial. OEM sales decline, low double digits on a core basis.
Additionally, we are beginning to see a meaningful acceleration of quoting and booking activity in the data center Market, which we expect the positively benefit, the fluid power segment towards end of this year. And mainly, as we entered to 2026,
Adjusted EBITDA margin for the Power Transmission segment declined 50 basis points year-over-year, partly due to higher spending on research and development projects to support new product development in personal mobility and industrial chain development.
Ivo Jurek: I will now pass the call over to Brooks for further comments on our results.
Fluid Power expanded adjusted EBITDA margins by 10 basis points and benefited from more stable revenue performance in the off-road market and favorable replacement activity, partially offset by investments in data center initiatives.
Brooks Mallard: Thank you, Ivo. I'll begin on slide six and review our core sales performance by region. Our key Asian geographies grew, contributing nicely to the quarter. This was offset by mixed macro conditions in the Americas and EMEA. In North America, core sales declined 1.3% and were primarily affected by lower OEM demand. Industrial OEM channel sales decreased low teens and were most impacted by lower demand in construction and on-highway. North American replacement channel sales expanded low single digits, led by mid-single-digit growth in industrial replacement, demonstrating a gradually improving trend. Auto replacement increased low single digits. At the end market level, personal mobility and diversified industrial were solid contributors. In EMEA, core sales fell just over 1%. OEM sales were down mid-single digits, with automotive weakness more than offsetting low single-digit growth in industrial.
I will not pass the call over to Brooks. Look for the comments on our results.
Thank you, Evo. I'll begin on 56. A review. Our core sales performance by region.
Our key Asian geographies grew contributing nicely to the quarter.
This was offset by mixed macro conditions in the Americas anemia.
In North America, core sales declined 1.3% and were primarily affected by lower OEM demand.
Industrial, OEM Channel, sales, decreased low, teens, and were most impacted by lower demand, and construction and on Highway.
North American replacement channel sales expanded in low single digits, led by mid single-digit growth in industrial replacement, demonstrating a gradually improving trend.
Auto replacement increased. Low single digits.
At the End Market level personal mobility and diversified industrial were solid contributors.
Enma, for sales fell just over 1%.
Brooks Mallard: Replacement sales were mixed, with automotive replacement core growth in the low single digits and industrial replacement down mid-single digits. The energy and diversified industrial end markets were also down year over year. East Asia and India posted approximately 4% core growth and saw growth across all industrial end markets. Automotive OEM sales were down slightly, but this was more than offset by mid-teens growth in automotive replacement. China core sales expanded slightly year over year, with growth in industrial end markets partially offset by declines in automotive. South America core sales declined low single digits. On slide seven, we lay out the key drivers of our year-over-year change in adjusted earnings per share. Underlying operating performance contributed approximately $0.04 per share, driven by gross margin expansion. The operating performance was offset by a $0.02 headwind from the non-recurring favorable benefit realized in the prior year period.
OEM sales were down mid single digits with Automotive weakness, more than offsetting low single-digit growth in industrial.
Replacement sales were mixed with automotive replacement core growth in the low single digits and Industrial replacement down mid single digits.
The Energy and Diversified Industrial markets were also down year-over-year.
And India posted approximately 4% core growth.
And saw growth across all industrial and markets.
Automotive OEM sales were down slightly, but this was more than offset by mid teens growth in automotive replacement.
China core sales expanded slightly year-over-year, with growth in industrial markets partially offset by declines in automotive.
South America, core sales declined, low single digits,
On slide 7, we lay out the key drivers of our year-over-year change in the adjusted earnings per share.
Underlying operating performance contributed approximately 4 cents per share, driven by gross margin expansion.
Brooks Mallard: Foreign exchange was a $0.01 drag on earnings per share. Lower interest expense and a lower share count contributed $0.02 on a combined basis. Slide eight offers an overview of our cash flow performance and balance sheet metrics for the second quarter. Our free cash flow was $74 million, growing 11% year over year and represented 73% conversion to adjusted net income. Our last 12 months' free cash flow conversion is also trending up, reaching 80% in the quarter. Our net leverage ratio declined to 2.2 times, which was a 0.1 times improvement compared to the prior year period as well as the first quarter. Our cash balance continues to build and exceeded $700 million in the quarter. Furthermore, we intend to pay down an additional $100 million of gross debt at the end of July.
The operating performance was offset by a 2, cent headwind from the nonrecurring favorable benefit realized in the prior year period.
Foreign exchange had a 1-cent impact on earnings per share.
Lower interest expense, and a lower Share account. Contributed 2 cents on a combined basis.
Slot. 8 offers an overview of our cash flow, performance and balance sheet metrics for the second quarter.
Our free cash flow was 74. Million growing 11% year-over-year and represented 73% conversion to adjusted net income.
Our last 12 months' free cash flow conversion is also trending up.
Reaching 80% in the quarter.
Our net leverage ratio declined to 2.2 times, which was a 0.1 times Improvement compared to the prior year period as well as the first quarter.
Our cash balance continues to build and exceeded $700 million in the quarter.
Furthermore, we intend to pay down an additional $100 million of gross debt. At the end of July,
Brooks Mallard: Through a balanced capital deployment strategy, we believe we are on track to reduce our net leverage below two times by year-end 2025. Our trailing 12-month return on invested capital was 21.3%, and we continue to invest in high-return internal projects that we believe will improve our competitive position. Turning to our updated 2025 guidance on slide nine, we have increased our adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share guidance at the midpoint. We are updating our full-year 2025 core revenue growth expectation to be in the range of 0.5% to 2.5%, maintaining the midpoint at 1.5%. We have increased our adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $765 million to $795 million, a $15 million increase at the midpoint due to more favorable foreign currency trends since the beginning of the year.
We're on track to reduce our net leverage below 2 times by year-end 2025.
our trailing 12 months return on invested Capital was 21.3%,
and we continue to invest in high return internal projects that we believe will improve our competitive position.
Starting to our updated 2025 guidance on slide 9.
We have increased our adjusted Ava and adjusted earnings per share guidance at the midpoint.
We are updating our full year 2025 revenue growth expectation to be in the range of 0.5% to 2.5%, maintaining the midpoint at 1.5%.
We have increased our adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $765 million to $795 million.
Brooks Mallard: Please recall, heading into the year, we had about a $10 million profit headwind on foreign exchange relating to favorable hedge impacts that we realized in 2024. As FX rates have swung to be favorable from a translation perspective, we have seen it roll through and have adjusted our guidance upward $15 million. Embedded in the adjustment is the realization of some actual and expected unfavorable FX hedge impacts that we should realize in 2025. We now expect adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $1.44 per share to $1.52 per share, an increase of $0.04 at the midpoint. Our guidance for capital expenditures and free cash flow conversion remains unchanged. For the third quarter, we estimate total revenues to be in the range of $845 million to $885 million, and core revenues to be up approximately 3% at the midpoint.
A $15 million increase at the midpoint due to more favorable foreign currency trends. Since the beginning of the year,
Please recall heading into the year. We had about a 10 million profit headwind on Foreign Exchange relating to favorable hedge impacts that we realized in 2024.
As FX rates have proven to be favorable from a translation perspective, we have seen it roll through and have adjusted our guidance upward by $15 million.
Embedded in the adjustment is the realization of some actual and expected unfavorable FX hedge impacts that we should realize in 2025.
We now expect adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of 1.44 cents per share to 1.52 cents per share.
An increase of $0.04 at the midpoint.
Our guidance for capital expenditures and free cash flow conversion remains unchanged.
for the third quarter, we estimate total revenues to be in the range of 845 million to 885 million and for revenues to be up approximately 3% at the midpoint
Brooks Mallard: For the third quarter, we expect our adjusted EBITDA margin to increase in a range of 50 basis points to 90 basis points compared to Q3 2024. Before I turn the call over to Ivo, I'll provide a brief update on tariffs. At current tariff rates, we now expect an annualized impact of approximately $50 million and anticipate incurring approximately 35% to 40% of the impact in the second half of 2025. We intend to cover 85% to 90% of the projected impact of price and employ various operational and supply chain actions to cover the remainder. We continue to expect to be neutral for the year on a dollar basis. I will now turn the call back to Ivo.
For the third quarter, we expect our adjusted ibida. Margin to increase in a range of 50 basis. Points to 90 basis points, compared to Q3 2024,
Before I turn the call over to Evo, I'll provide a brief update on tariffs.
At current tariff rates. We now expect an annualized impact of approximately 50 million and anticipate incurring approximately 35 to 40% of the impact in the second half of 2025.
We intend to cover 85 to 90% of the projected impact of price and employ, various operational and supply chain actions to cover the remains.
We continue to expect to be neutral for the year on a dollar basis.
Ivo Jurek: Thank you, Brooks. On slide 10, we outline our data center product portfolio and the types of customers we are presently supporting. On the left side, you see a sample of our product portfolio. We launched our DataMaster hose last year and added larger sizes to accommodate the increased flow requirements required by the industry. Earlier this month, we introduced our universal quick disconnect fitting specified for the data center environment in multiple sizes. Our electric pump is gaining traction, and we continue to scale up the pump portfolio to accommodate the higher flow rates required in liquid-cooled data centers while preserving a compact size and energy efficiency. On the right side, you see we are serving a wide array of customers from data center operators to service contractors and everyone in between. Currently, we are in negotiations with a major hyperscaler to supply in 2026.
I will now turn the call back to Evo.
Thank you, Brooks.
On slide 10, we outline our data center product portfolio and the types of customers we are presently supporting.
On the left side, you see a sample of our product portfolio.
We launched our data master host last year and added larger sizes to accommodate the increased flow requirements required by the industry.
Earlier this month, we introduced our universal quick disconnect fitting, specified for the data center environment, in multiple sizes.
Uh, the electric pump is gaining traction. Can we continue to scale up the pump portfolio to accommodate the higher flow rates required in liquid-cooled data centers while preserving a compact size and energy efficiency?
On the right side. You see we are serving a wide array of customers from data center operators to service contractors and everyone in between
Ivo Jurek: We have also secured a design win for our data center electric pump with an Asian-based EMS supplier in support of a large US-based server manufacturer that we estimate could be worth multiple millions of dollars in revenues as we get into full production in 2026. We have developed relationships with service contractors and engineering firms that are actively involved in the build-out of data centers and one additional business to supply our DataMaster Megaflex hose in support of Data Center Campus project located in Texas. Additionally, we have established close working relationships with critical infrastructure providers to the data center market and anticipate having additional design wins awarded through these partners in the near future. We are pleased with the momentum in our product development and commercial coverage, and we believe that our revenue base is poised to inflect nicely over the next couple of years.
Currently, we are in the negotiations with a major hyperscaler to supply in 2026.
We have also secured a design win for our data center, electric pump with an asian-based EMS supplier, in support of a large us-based server manufacturer, that we estimate could be worth multiple millions of dollars in revenues as we get into full production in 2026.
to supply our data Master Mega flexos in support of data center campus project located in Texas,
Additionally, we have established close working relationships with critical infrastructure providers to the data center market. We anticipate having additional design wins awarded through these partners in the near future.
We are pleased with the momentum in our product development and commercial coverage, and we believe that our revenue base is poised to inflate nicely over the next couple of years.
Ivo Jurek: On slide 11, I'll provide a brief update on our personal mobility business. We continue to make investments to enter new applications and support new product development, as well as expand and scale commercial competencies to drive penetration. Our innovation efforts are translating into relevance across new applications. We have product offerings available for e-mountain bikes and value e-bikes, relatively new markets for us that are gaining traction and augment our mid-to-long-term penetration opportunity. Our innovation efforts are centered on adding incremental performance at lower cost. At Gates, we are redefining how designers achieve transmission of power to motion while enhancing look and feel. Our opportunity pipeline currently exceeds $300 million, and we believe the business is well-positioned to exceed $300 million of revenues by 2028, which implies a compound annual growth rate of approximately 30%. I'll summarize our thoughts and views on slide 12.
On slide 11, I'll provide a brief update on our Personal Mobility business.
We continue to make investments to enter new applications and support new product development, as well as expand and scale. Commercial content is a good driver for penetration.
Our innovation efforts are translating into relevance across new applications.
This product offering is available for mountain bikes and value e-bikes, relatively new markets for us that are gaining traction, and augments are made to long-term penetration opportunities.
Our innovation efforts are centered on adding incremental performance and lower costs.
At Gates, we are redefining how designers achieve transmission of power to motion while enhancing look and feel.
The opportunity pipeline currently stands at $300 million, and we believe the business is well positioned to exceed $300 million in revenues by 2028, which implies a compound annual growth rate of approximately 30%.
Ivo Jurek: First, we believe that we are managing the business well through the current economic uncertainties. We are preparing the company for an anticipated acceleration in core growth over the midterm. Recovery in personal mobility is well underway, and we anticipate growth to inflect higher in the second half of the year. Our data center opportunity pipeline continues to expand, now approaching $150 million. The auto replacement market remains constructive, and we see further opportunity for us to leverage our brand, product portfolio, and fulfillment capabilities to drive further market outgrowth. Of note, we believe the industrial off-road markets have started to bottom, and we realized core growth in agriculture for the first time in two years this past quarter. Concurrently, we remain highly focused on improving our gross margins through a mix of material cost savings, footprint optimization, and productivity. Second, our business possesses multiple secular growth opportunities.
I'll summarize our thoughts and views on Slide 12.
First, we believe that we are managing the business as well to the current economic uncertainties.
We are preparing the company for anticipated acceleration in core growth over the midterm.
Recovery and personal mobility is well underway, and we anticipate growth to inflect higher in the second half of the year.
Our data center opportunity pipeline continues to expand, now approaching $150 million.
The other replacement Market remains constructed and we see further opportunity for us to leverage our brand product portfolio and fulfillment capabilities to drive further Market outgrowth.
Of note, we believe the industrial off-road markets have started to borrow, and we realized core growth in agriculture for the first time in two years this past quarter.
Concurrently, we remain highly focused on improving our growth margins through a mix of material cost savings, footprint optimization, and productivity.
Ivo Jurek: In personal mobility, the design wins we have achieved over the last couple of years are fueling outgrowth as the two-wheeler market has stabilized. Moreover, our opportunity pipeline exceeds $300 million, which provides us good visibility to our future outgrowth potential given our historical win rates. As we discussed previously on the data center slide, we are beginning to book relevant wins. We believe the expansion of the liquid cooling market, coupled with the product development and people investments we are making, positions us to organically grow business nicely through the end of the decade. Both personal mobility and data centers add a secular growth algorithm to our shareholder value proposition.
Second, a business possesses multiple secular growth opportunities.
In personal mobility, the design wins we have achieved over the last couple of years are fueling our growth as the two-wheeler market has stabilized.
Moreover, our opportunity pipeline exceeds $300 million, which provides us good visibility into our future growth potential, given our historical win rates.
As we discussed previously on the data center slide, we are beginning to book relevant wins.
We believe the extension of the liquid cooling market, coupled with the product development and people investments we are making, positions us to organically grow the business nicely to the end of the decade.
Ivo Jurek: Lastly, we anticipate our investments in the new belts and sprockets are going to bring belt drives close to cause parity with chains over the next few years and potentially unlock a meaningful uptick in the chain-to-belt conversions across stationary industrial automation applications. Our new product innovation pipeline is growing to support new applications as well as to improve existing ones, and I am optimistic that our vitality rate is poised to increase nicely over the midterm. Third, our balance sheet continues to strengthen, which enhances our capital allocation optionality. While our equity valuation has improved over the past several quarters, we believe our shares remain undervalued and share repurchases are a good use of excess capital.
Both personal mobility and data centers. Add a secular growth algorithm to our shareholder value proposition.
Lastly, we anticipate our investments in the new belts and sprockets are going to bring Health drives close to prosperity. We change over the next few years and potentially unlock a meaningful uptake in the chain to Bell conversions across stationary, industrial automation applications.
Our new product innovation pipeline is growing to support new applications, as well as to improve existing ones. I am optimistic that our vitality rate is poised to increase nicely over the midterms.
Capital allocation optionality.
Ivo Jurek: We have taken a balanced approach to capital allocation historically and intend to reduce our gross debt in Q3 and make further progress towards our goal of lowering our gross debt below $2 billion. Before taking your questions, I want to thank the 14,000 Global Gates Associates for their effort and hard work towards satisfying our customers' needs on a consistent basis. With that, I'll now turn the call back over to the operator for Q&A.
Well, our Equity valuation has improved over the past several quarters. We believe our shares remain undervalued, and share repurchases. A good use of excess capital
We have taken a balanced approach to capitalizing our patient historically and intend to reduce our gross debt in Q3 and make further progress towards our goal of lowering our gross debt below $2 billion.
Before taking your questions, I want to thank the 14,000 Global Gates Associates for their effort and hard work towards satisfying. Our customers needs on a consistent basis.
With that, I'll now turn the call back over to the operator for Q&A.
Eric: At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. We ask that participants limit themselves to one question and one follow-up question. Your first question comes from the line of Nigel Ko with Wolf Research. Please go ahead.
At this time, I would like to remind everyone that to ask a question, please press star followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad. We ask that participants limit themselves to 1 question and 1 follow-up question.
Your first question comes from the line of Nigel Cole with Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe: Oh, thanks. Thanks. Good morning, guys. Appreciate the first question. So I think just the first question would be, you know, the confidence and conviction in that pivot to growth in the third quarter, the 3%. So just curious to what degree you're seeing, obviously, the comps are getting easier, so that's one factor. But, you know, what are you seeing in order rates? I don't know, backlog, and then maybe just the incremental price contribution in 3Q versus 2Q. Just any help there would be welcome.
Please go ahead. Oh, thanks, thanks. Good morning guys. Appreciate the first question. Um,
Ivo Jurek: Yeah. Good morning, Nigel. Thank you for your question. Look, you know, our order rates have been, as we have anticipated, as we kind of entered Q2 and kind of as we exited July, we continue to see, you know, a nice portion of our end market that seemed to be troughing with maybe the on-highway exposure continuing to still decelerate a bit, but that's probably the primary market, maybe with oil and gas, that are still, you know, they are still kind of going down to a degree. But if you think about industrial replacement, industrial replacement is seeing slight improvements in demand. Automotive replacement remains stable and very accretive for us, obviously, globally. And personal mobility, as I've indicated, has accelerated meaningfully post, you know, kind of a two-year destart that we have dealt with last year and the year before.
So I I think, um, just just the first question would be, you know, the confidence and conviction in that pivot to growth in the third quarter, the 3%. Um, so just just curious, uh, to what degree you're seeing. Obviously. The comps are getting easier. So that's 1 Factor. But, uh, you know, what are you seeing in order rates? Uh, I don't know, backlog, um, and then maybe just the incremental price contribution in 3, key versus TQ, just any any help there be would be welcome.
Yeah, good morning, Nigel. Thank you for your question. Look, you know our order rates have been as we have anticipated, um, as we kind of entered Q2 and kind of as we exited in July.
We continue to see.
you know, nice portion of our end Market that seem to be troughing
With maybe the on Highway exposure continuing to to still decelerate a bit but that's probably the primary Market maybe we don't have any gas that are that are still um, you know, they are still kind of going down to a degree, but if you think about industrial industrial replacement, uh, industrial replacement is seeing slight improvements in demand automotive replacement remains stable and uh, very accretive for us, obviously globally and personal Mobility is, I've indicated has accelerated meaningfully post. Um, you know, kind of a 2 2 year.
Ivo Jurek: So our degree of confidence is reasonably good that, you know, we will start seeing a very nice accretion in growth rates. I mean, it will be steady from where we sit. Yes, as you indicated, more, you know, maybe easier comp is a is a part of it. Personal mobility is going to continue to, power forward and accelerate, as I've indicated, into the second half. We got a little bit of price. So all in, we feel reasonably, reasonably positively about, obviously, about the guidance that we have provided the street.
Thought that we have dealt with last year and the year before. So our degree of confidence is reasonably good that, um, you know, we will start seeing a very nice secretion in, uh, in growth rates. I mean, it will be steady from where we sit. Yes, as you indicated, uh, more, uh, you know, uh, maybe easier comp is a, is a part of it. Personal Mobility is going to continue to, uh, power forward, and accelerate as I've indicated into the second half, we got a little bit of price. So, all in, do we feel reasonably, uh, reasonably positively about obviously, about the guidance that we have provided, uh, the street?
Nigel Coe: That's great. Thank you, Ivo. And, and my follow-on is, shock, horror, surprise, on data centers. so I mean, really appreciate the color, on on the pipeline. I think you've said in the past, Ivo, that this could easily be a similar scale to the, personal mobility, market. So call it, you know, $100, $150 million in the next two or three years. Has your view changed, on on that opportunity set, you know, based on what you've seen out there?
That's great. Thank you though. And, um, and my third 1 is uh, chocorua surprise on data centers. Um, so I mean, really appreciate the color, uh, on on the pipeline. Um, I think you've said in the past even though that this could easily be similar scale to the uh, personal Mobility, uh, market. So call it, you know, 150 million dollars in the next 2 or 3 years has your view changed um, on on that opportunity Set uh you know, based on what you see. Now then
Ivo Jurek: I want to be very careful how I represented Nigel, but I I would probably say that I maybe see, I maybe maybe see it even more, more bullishly than, at that point in time. Obviously, there's no linear path from where we sit today, up. But look, we are invoicing, dramatically more revenue today than we have done prior year from a very small base, obviously. but the amount of programs that we are involved with across the portfolio that we have delineated, and, you know, I would be remiss if I didn't throw our belts in there that go into the industrial HVACs. So, you know, our entire portfolio of products participate in, data center cooling.
Ivo Jurek: And I think what the inflection that we see, Nigel, is driven by the more rapid adoption of liquid cooling now, as everybody's realizing that, the, you know, just, forced air is not going to get you there. that's evolving super fast, and, it's putting actually quite a bit of strain on our organization, and that's why we spoke a little bit about more investment, to be able to keep up with it, to sample, to, you know, to get certified, qualified, put on a stack. it's it's looking quite all right for us. So I think that that certainly that $150 million that I've spoken about is, is totally doable.
Nigel Coe: Great. Thank you.
Adoption of liquid cooling. Now, uh, as everybody's realizing that uh the, you know, just uh, 4 stairs, not going to get you there. Uh, that's evolving super fast and uh it's putting actually quite a bit of strain on our organization. And that's why we spoke a little bit about more investment uh, to be able to keep up with it, to sample to, you know, to get certified qualified put on a stack. Uh, it's it's looking quite all right for us. So I think that that certainly that 150 million dollars would have spoken in the past is, uh, is totally doable.
Great. Thank you.
Rich Kwas: Thanks, Nigel.
Thanks Nigel.
Eric: Your next question comes from the line of Dean Dre with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Your next question comes from the line of Dean Dre with RBC Capital markets.
Deane Dray: Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Ivo Jurek: Good morning.
Please go ahead. Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Brooks Mallard: Good morning.
Deane Dray: Hey, just want to circle up on the auto OE softness, and look, everyone is seeing that. But what I think is unique about Gates is historically, you've always had strategically selectivity in terms of what auto OE first-fit business you would go after. So on is the softness in any way reflected on some of the discretionary business that you have declined to pursue, or is it entirely just lower production?
Good morning, good morning, good morning. Hey uh just want to Circle up on the auto OE softness. And look, everyone is seeing that but what I think is unique about Gates is historically, you've always had strategically selectivity in terms of what Auto OE first fit business, you would go after. So on is the softness in any way reflected on some of the discretionary business that you have declined to pursue or is it entirely just lower production?
Ivo Jurek: Thank you for your question, Dean. I think that you're correct. I, you know, I've spoken many years about selective participation, and we continue to, you know, we continue with that philosophy moving forward. It's really not that important part of our revenue stream. Again, to remind everybody, we've taken it from about 17, 18 percent at the IPO down to less than 10 percent presently, and we will continue with our process of selective participation. We have a tremendous amount of growth initiatives organically focused that we believe will continue to dilute further that revenue mix. But I would also say that, you know, there is a weakness, in particular in Europe, in production. North America was, you know, slightly, you know, maybe slightly less in volumes than what I think the original assumptions used to be. But it's not, you know, that's not been the issue.
Uh, thank you for your question, and I think that, uh, you're correct, I, you know, um, I've spoken, uh, many years about selective participation and we continue to, you know, we continue with that with that, uh, philosophy, uh, moving forward. Uh, it's really not that important, uh, part of our uh, Revenue stream. Uh, again to remind everybody, we've taken it from about, uh, 1718 percent at the IPO down to less than 10% presently. And we will continue with our process of selective participation. Uh, we have tremendous amount of growth initiative organically focused that we believe will, uh, continue to dilute, uh, further that Revenue mix. Uh, but I would also say that, you know, there is a weakness in particularly in Europe, in production, uh North America was, you know, um slightly. Um, you know, maybe slightly uh Less in volumes.
Ivo Jurek: The issue has been really more around Europe and the impact, I think, of tariffs on the production that was especially targeted for exports.
Than uh What? Uh, I think the original assumptions used to be but it's not, you know, it's not been the issue. The issue has been really more around Europe and the impact I think of tariffs on the uh, production that uh, was especially targeted for exports.
Deane Dray: That's really helpful. And just a second question is, I found it really interesting your point on the chain-to-belt conversion, talking about how belts and sprockets are kind of reaching a point where there's a, you know, they're equal to the kind of legacy chain costs. So what's been driving that? Maybe some numbers around how those two cost points compare, and, you know, does that make it even more compelling in accelerating this whole conversion?
That's really helpful and just uh second question is I found it really interesting your point on the chain to Belt conversion. Talking about how belts and sprockets are kind of reaching a point where there's a you know, um they're equal to the the the kind of Legacy chain costs. So what's been driving that? Maybe some numbers around, how those 2 cost points compared and you know, does that make it even more compelling and accelerating this whole conversion?
Ivo Jurek: Yeah. Thank you for the question. It's a little more complex question, and I'll try to I'll try to be brief. Look, when we started this journey in 2018, 2019, the cost premium of belt drive to a chain drive was about 2.5x of a chain drive if you used a belt drive. But the payback on switching away from chain drive to a belt drive was very, very good because of the value we provide: up time, no need to tension the drive, no need to lubricate, lower energy consumption. So the payback was very good for installed base. But when we've talked to machine builders, machine builders really wanted us to get much closer to the cost parity so that when they designed belt drive in, there would not be a cost premium.
Yeah, thank you for the question. This, a little more complex question and I, I'll try to, uh, I'll try to be brief. Uh, look, when we started this journey in 2018, 2019, um, the, the cost premium of belt drive to a chain drive was about 2 and a half X of a chain drive. If you used about drive, but the payback on Switching away from chain drive to about Drive was very, very good because of the value, we provide uptime, uh, no need to tension the drive, no need to lubricate, uh, lower, uh, lower energy consumption. So the, the payback was very good for installed base. But when we, we've talked to machine Builders machine. Builders really wanted us to get much closer to the cost, parity, so that when they designed those Drive-In,
Ivo Jurek: And as you can imagine, there are two different end users and OEM that's building the equipment that's got different value drivers versus the end user that's utilizing the apparatus that's really more focused on efficiency and reduced maintenance amounts. So we've worked quite diligently over the last four or five years investing in alternative technologies of manufacturing, construction, and we are coming up with a sprocket technology that we believe is going to give us a rather substantial cost advantage and is the sprocket in particular that is required to drive that cost down.
Ivo Jurek: And so while we are not at cost parity yet, and as I indicated in my prepared remarks, we are probably 12 to 24 months away from that, we believe that we are making rather meaningful progress with our cost structure and the technology evolution that will get us so much closer to that cost parity and open doors to adoption at the MOEM space on the industrial side and stationary application side.
Deane Dray: I really appreciate that caller. Thank you and best of luck.
That is required to drive that cost down. And so while we are not at Prosperity yet and as I indicated in my prepared remarks, we are probably 12 to 24 months, uh, away from that, we believe that we are making rather meaningful progress with our cost structure and the technology Evolution that will get us, so much closer to that prosperity, and open doors for adoption. At the moment, stands on the industrial agencies side and stationary applications side.
I really appreciate that. Caller, thank you. And best of luck.
Rich Kwas: Thanks, Dean.
Ivo Jurek: Thanks, Dean.
Eric: Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBank. Please go ahead.
I see, I see.
The next question, come from comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBank.
Brooks Mallard: Hey, good morning, guys.
Please go ahead.
Ivo Jurek: Good morning.
Hey, good morning, guys.
Brooks Mallard: Just on this industrial recovery, I think you gave us some good color on end markets. But outside of just ag bottoming, what other areas are you seeing kind of more signs that this kind of industrial replacement or industrial recovery is starting to take hold? And, you know, is it just simply getting clarity on tariffs or something else that's driving it?
um,
Just on this industrial recovery. I think you you gave us some good color on the end markets but outside of just a bottoming. Um what what other areas are you seeing kind of more signs that this kind of industrial replacement or industrial recovery starting to take hold and, you know, is it just simply getting Clarity on tariffs or or something else? Uh, that's that's driving it.
Ivo Jurek: Yeah. Jeff, I think that, you know, that's a terrific question, and I, you know, I would probably try to, again, try to be brief here. Look, I think the demand environment is kind of evolving more or less as we anticipated when we entered the year. I mean, obviously, we didn't forecast tariffs that brought in a tremendous amount of volatility and uncertainty in some of the things that we have been dealing with in Q2, and I think that people are kind of still processing about that half of the year. We're quite encouraged about ag. Again, ag was over two and a half years negative. So I think that you're starting to see some stability in there.
Yeah, Jeff, I think that, um, you know, it's a, that's a terrific question and I, you know, I would probably uh, try to again, try to be brief here.
Ivo Jurek: PMI, PMIs have been terrible, obviously, as you know, kind of, you know, with the exception of a couple of months, it's maybe like 34 months that we have had negative PMI print. That I think is starting to stabilize. It's still below 50, but it's starting to bring some stability. And my anticipation is, and certainly, that's, you know, when I look at our industrial replacement order rates, it would indicate that while, you know, it's not great, it's not decelerating. And actually, in Q2, we had a positive print on industrial replacement, which was quite good. Off-road still remains a headwind, particularly in construction. On-road is incrementally worse. So I would say that those two end markets are still not great.
Look, um, I need a demanding environment. It's kind of evolving, more or less as we anticipated, when we entered the year. I mean, obviously we didn't forecast tariffs that brought in tremendous amount of uh volatility and uncertain in some of the things that we have we have been dealing with in Q2 and I think that people are kind of still processing about that capital of the year, we are, we're quite encouraged about that. Um, again a was over 2 2 and a half years, uh, negative. So I think that you're starting to see some stability in their PMI, pmis have been terrible. Obviously as you know kind of you know with the exception of couple of months is maybe like 34 months that we have had negative PMI print that I think is starting to stabilize. It's still below 50 but it's starting to bring some stability in. My anticipation is in a certain way. That's you know when I look at our industrial replacement uh order rates it would indicate that while you know, it's not great. It's not decelerating. And actually, in Q2, we had a positive print on uh, industrial re
Ivo Jurek: But our automotive replacement business continues to power forward, and it's quite positive, delivering, you know, a great deal of stability for our revenue stream, historically and on a forward-going basis. And auto is kind of around the edge is what we've anticipated, maybe a little worse in Europe, but it's hanging in there in Asia and maybe marginally worse in North America. And personal mobility is just super hot. It's rebounding nicely, and it's giving us the opportunity to offset some of the negative print in some of the other markets. So hopefully, that gives you a better color.
Brooks Mallard: Oh, that's good. Can you just talk about how you're thinking about buyback into the second half of the year and just the confidence that you hit your free cash flow conversion? I know there's, you know, some people have talked about benefits from the tax bill, but you know, just confidence in hitting the free cash flow targets as well.
Placement which which was quite quite good. Off-road. Still Remains ahead of in particular in construction on road is incrementally worse. So I would say that those 2 main markets are still not great but um, are in automotive replacement business continues to power forward and it's quite positive, delivering, you know, uh, great deal of stability for our Revenue stream. Um, historically, and and on foregoing basis, and otherwise kind of around the ages. What we've anticipated, maybe a little worse in Europe, but it's hanging in there in, uh, in Asia and maybe a marginally worse in North America and personal Mobility is just super hard. It's it's rebounding nicely. And it's, uh, giving us the opportunity to offset some of the negative print and some of the other markets. So hopefully that gives you a better color.
Oh, that's good. Um, can you just talk about how you're thinking about buybacks into the second half of the year and just the confidence that you have in hitting your free cash flow conversion? I know there's, you know, some people have talked about benefits from the tax bill, but, um, you know, just confidence in hitting the free cash flow targets as well.
Brooks Mallard: Yeah. So, you know, look, I think, you know, from a buyback versus debt paydown, first of all, look, you know, we take a balanced approach. You know, we are committed to getting our gross debt, you know, below 2 billion. We're committed to getting our leverage below 2, right? And so that means we got to lock in some of the cash generation by paying down debt, which we're going to do in Q3. You know, we still think our stock is undervalued. So stock buyback remains a good option for us. So from a capital deployment perspective, you know, you know, all options are on the table as we continue to generate cash. You know, from a, you know, generating our 90% cash conversion, look, you know, over the past, you know, year and a half, we've, you know, we've invested in working capital.
Brooks Mallard: We've improved our service levels dramatically. We think it's paid dividends for us, particularly on the replacement business. And now that that's leveled off and some of our enterprise initiatives around supply chain are working, you know, we feel like we'll be able to dial down that investment, certainly not increase it, and dial it down some and drive working capital down and maintain our service levels and be able to serve our replacement customers as well as we ever have. So we've got good conviction that, you know, not only can we continue to invest, you know, from a capital spending perspective where we've, you know, been investing more over the past six quarters, but we can continue to deliver, you know, very nice, cash generation and cash conversion, for 2025 and onward.
Yeah, so you look, I think, you know, from a, from a buyback versus Debt Pay down. First of all, look, you know, we take a balanced approach, uh, you know, we we, uh, are committed to getting our gross debt, you know, below 2 billion, we're committed to getting our our leverage below 2, right? And so that means we got to lock in some of the cash Generation by paying down debt, which we're going to do in queue Q3, you know, we we still think our stock is undervalued, um, so stock buyback remains a a good option for us. So from a capital deployment perspective, you know, you know all options are on the table as we continue to to generate cash you know, from a from a 9, you know, generating our 90% cash conversion, look, you know, over the past you know, year and a half. We've you know we've invested in uh working capital. Uh We've improved our service levels dramatically, we think it's paid dividends for us, particularly on the replacement of business and now that that's leveled off and some of our Enterprise initiatives around supply chain are working, you know, we
Good conviction that, you know, not only can we continue to invest, you know, from a capital spending perspective where we you know been invested more over the past 6 quarters but we can continue to deliver uh, you know, very nice, um cash generation and cash conversion um for for 2025 and and almond.
Brooks Mallard: Okay. Thanks so much.
Okay, thanks so much.
Rich Kwas: Thanks, Jeff.
Next up.
Eric: Your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Berkeley's.
Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe: Hi. Good afternoon. maybe, just the first question around, the, EBITDA margin outlook. So I think the second-half guide is embedding a sort of high 30s operating leverage year on year in both quarters. I just wanted to make sure that that's roughly accurate. And is that a good sort of placeholder when we start to think about 2026, assuming that that sort of low single-digit, organic sales growth, backdrop can remain intact?
Hi, good afternoon. Um, maybe just the first question around, um, the EBITDA margin outlook. So, I think the second half guide is embedding a sort of high 30s operating leverage year on year in both quarters. I just wanted to make sure that that's roughly accurate, and is that a good sort of placeholder when we start to think about 2026?
Assuming that that sort of low single digit uh organic sales growth. Um backdrop can remain intact.
Brooks Mallard: No, you're spot on. The, you know, kind of high 30s, almost a 40 leverage, but then, you know, how we're thinking about the back half of the year is is where we should be. yeah. And I think about, you know, '26 and going forward, you know, we're going to continue to drop through, you know, on core growth at kind of that mid-30s level, plus the enterprise initiatives, you know, should, should, you know, put us in that kind of, you know, 40-handle, you know, range in terms of, you know, the drop-through on the additional sales. And you look at where our growth opportunities are in mobility, you know, the replacement business is doing well, and that's a, you know, a little bit of a favorable mix kicker in there. So, you know, we feel pretty confident about that from a, from a, incremental earnings perspective.
You know, you're spot on. The, um, you know, kind of high 30s, almost a 40 leverage, both in, you know, how we're thinking about the back half of the year is where we should be. Um, yeah. And I think about, you know, 2026 and going forward, you know, we're going to continue to drop through, you know, on core growth that kind of that mid-30s level plus the Enterprise initiatives.
Um, you know, should should, you know, put us in that kind of, you know, 40 handle, you know, range in terms of uh, you know, the drop through on the additional sales and and you look at where our growth opportunities are and and Mobility, you know, the replacement business is doing well and and that's a, you know, a little bit of a favorable mix, uh, kicker in there. So, you know, we feel pretty confident about that. From a, uh, from a, uh, incremental earnings perspective.
Nigel Coe: That's helpful. Thanks, Brooks. And then maybe one for Ivo, more on the sort of demand, backdrop. I guess one part is just, have you seen anything interesting in terms of recent sort of cadence of demand moving around in the last month or two? And then maybe related to that, when you look at your sort of half a dozen main end market verticals, have you changed the perspective on any of them today in terms of the year's outlook versus January or April? It sounded like perhaps on-highway North America is one that's changed for the worst. Any others to call out?
That's helpful, thanks, folks. And then maybe one for Ivo more on this sort of demand backdrop, I guess. One part is just, have you seen anything interesting in terms of the recent cadence of demand moving around in the last?
Month or two, and then maybe related to that. When you look at your sort of half a dozen main and market verticals, um, have you changed the perspective on any of them today? In terms of the year's outlook versus January or April? It sounded like perhaps on Highway, North America is one that's changed for the worse.
Um, any others to call out?
Ivo Jurek: Yeah. Julian, good afternoon too. Not meaningfully. I think that the end markets are still around the edges, more or less. As you have described, I would just say maybe meaningfully, mid-single-digit kind of a worse in on-highway, as I've described. The rest of the markets are kind of hanging in there. Look, you know, we're speaking about markets, not about our opportunity to drive growth. So, you know, as an example, I take a look at mobility and what we have represented about mobility. I mean, the end units are not growing. We're just driving, you know, a dramatic level of penetration post-COVID destock. And so while the market may be remaining, you know, somewhat positive around the edges for us, we're delivering, you know, significant growth because of the design wins that we have, that we have won over the last couple of years.
Yeah. Um,
Ivo Jurek: So, you know, I think that we, you know, we are primarily focused on belt health, Julian, where, you know, we believe that we can deliver revenue above market growth rate. And that's, you know, that's really what we want to continue to demonstrate, taking on board some of the feedback that we have been receiving, over the last couple of years from from the market. I would, I would though highlight that we do see, in particular in the data center, a liquid cooling market, there's kind of a feeding frenzy now. It's, it's really quite amazing how much, how many opportunities there are and, you know, just landing them. And this this will be an opportunity for us where, unlike maybe on some of the other traditional markets that Gates used to participate, we we should start recognizing revenue reasonably quickly.
Julian, good good. Good afternoon to you, uh, not meaningfully. I think that the the end markets are still uh, around the edges more or less. Uh, as you have described, I would just say maybe meaningfully. Um, Mid single digit, kind of a, a worse in uh, on Highway. Uh, as I've described the rest of the markets are kind of hanging in there. Look, you know we you know, we're speaking about about markets, not about opportunity to drive growth. So, you know, as an example, I take a look at mobility and what we have represented about Mobility. I mean the end units are not growing, we're just driving, you know, dramatic level of penetration post, um, Co this stock. And so while the market may be remaining, you know, uh somewhat positive around the edges for us, we're delivering drive, you know, significant growth because of the design events that we have, uh, that we have 1 over the last couple of years.
Uh, so I, you know, I think that we, you know, we primarily focused on Self Health, Julian, where we believe that we can deliver revenue above the market growth rate. And that's, you know, that's really what, uh, what we want to continue to demonstrate, taking on board some of the feedback that we have been receiving, uh, over the last couple of years from the market. I would, I would highlight that we.
Do.
See, in a particular data center, the liquid cooling market is kind of a feeding frenzy now. It's really quite amazing how many opportunities there are, and you know, just landing them.
Ivo Jurek: So, you know, we anticipate that we're going to have some revenue from products that we're going to be ramping up actually in Q4. I mean, it's not going to be massive, but it's going to be pre-production type revenue and then a meaningful step up into 2026.
And this will be an opportunity for us where, unlike maybe on some of the other traditional markets, that gives you the ability to participate. We should start recognizing revenue reasonably quickly. So, you know, we had anticipated we're going to have some revenue from products that are going to be ramping up, actually in Q4. I mean, it's not going to be massive, but it's going to be pre-production type revenue, and then a meaningful step up into 2026.
Nigel Coe: That's great. Thank you.Your
That's great. Thank you.
Eric: next question comes from the line of Mike Halloran with Baird. Please go ahead.
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Howerin with Beard.
Rich Kwas: Hey, morning, everyone.
Please go ahead.
Hey morning, everyone.
Eric: Morning, Mike.
Rich Kwas: Yeah, a couple of things, more follow-up than anything. One, just want to clarify, you guys are, other than maybe personal mobility, it doesn't sound like you're saying fundamentals are necessarily, you're assuming a guidance and acceleration and underlying fundamentals more steady as she goes, normal sequentials in the back half of the year against relatively easy comps and then layering on some growth initiatives. Is that a fair characterization?
um,
Yeah, a couple things um, more follow up that anything 1 just want to clarify. You guys are other than maybe personal Mobility. Um, it it doesn't sound like you're saying fundamentals or necessarily. You're assuming a guy's an acceleration and underlying fundamentals more.
Steady as she goes: normal sequences in the back half of the year against relatively easy comps. And then layering on some growth initiatives, is that a fair characterization?
Ivo Jurek: Yes, it is.
Rich Kwas: Okay. And then second question on the data center side of things, just curious what the opportunity set looks like, either organically or inorganically, either new product development or acquisitions layer on, you know, kind of broaden out the exposures there relative to what you're already already doing. Obviously, very exciting. I'm curious if there's other tangential areas you see that complement what you're already pushing forward on.
Yes, it is.
Okay, and then second question, on the data center side of things, just curious what the opportunity set looks like either to organically or inorganically.
Um, either new product development or acquisitions layer on, you know, kind of broaden out the exposures relative to what you're already doing. Obviously, very exciting. Um, I'm curious if there are other tangential areas you see that complement what you're already pushing forward on.
Ivo Jurek: Yeah. Look, I think it's a terrific question. I, you know, I would probably punt on the M&A side, to be honest with you, because our opportunity set organically is rather significant. I think that when we start talking about build-out of our portfolio about a year, year and a half back, or whenever it was, we were kind of scoping certain penetration of liquid cooling of new data center space. I would venture to say that that's going to be dramatically bigger than what we thought that it will be a couple of years ago. So in essence, I think that there's going to be a lot more liquid cooling penetration on a forward-going basis that I think anybody anticipated. We've built a really nice portfolio around the core competencies that we have as a company.
Yeah. Look, I think it's a terrific question. I, you know, I would probably punt on the M&A side, to be honest with you, because our opportunities that organically are rather significant. I think that when we start talking about the build-out of our portfolio,
About a year, year and a half back, or whenever it was, we were kind of scoping certain penetration of liquid cooling of new data center space.
Ivo Jurek: So we are not really stretching ourselves and reaching out to any sort of adjacent technologies. We are just chopping wood and keeping our head down with core portfolio, tailoring our products around the requirements of liquid cooling. Obviously, you know, high degree of requirements, high reliability, precision, you know, reliability of supply. Those are our core strengths to Gates Corporation. That's where we are good. And we believe that we will have a meaningful opportunity to deliver nice growth as we move forward over the next, you know, 12, 24, 36 months.
I would venture to say that it's going to be dramatically bigger than what we thought that it will be couple of years ago. So, in essence, I think that there's going to be a lot more liquid cooling penetration uh, on forward going basis that I think anybody anticipated. We've built a really nice portfolio around the core competencies that we have as a company. So we are not really stretching ourselves uh and reaching out to any sort of adjacent Technologies. We are just chopping wood and keeping our head down with core portfolio. Tailoring, our products around the requirements of liquid cooling. Obviously, you know, High degree requirements, High reliability Precision. Um, you know, reliability of Supply. Those are all core strengths to Gates, cooperation. That's where we are good and we believe that we will have a meaningful opportunity.
To, uh, deliver nice growth as we move forward over the next, you know, 12, 24, 36 months.
Rich Kwas: Thank you, Ivo. Appreciate it.
Rich Kwas: Thanks, Mike.
Thank you though, appreciate it.
Eric: Your next question comes from the line of Damien Tarraz with UBS. Please go ahead.
Thanks Mike.
Your next question comes from the line of Damian Keras with UBS.
Please go ahead.
Ivo Jurek: Hi. It's actually Zach Waldjoster on for Damien today. Just a quick question clarifying the guidance for the year. I heard earlier comments about like about FX being a tailwind to the revision higher in EBITDA, but I was just curious, or EBITDA margin, I was just curious, you know, the FX versus the more operational efficiency in the nature. And then my second question is just around pricing. You know, you guys put through a lot of price earlier in the year, but now we have, you know, copper and steel, and it was increasing focus. And I'm just curious, so what are you guys prepared to do? And then what's customer feedback been to the pricing? Thank you.
Hi, uh, it's actually Zack Wall Jasper on for Damian today. Uh, just a quick question clarifying the guidance for the year. I heard earlier it comes with like about FX effects being a tailwind to the revision, higher in EBITDA, but I was just curious about margins. I was just curious, you know, the FX first, the more operational efficiency in nature. And then my second question is just around pricing. You know you have to put through a lot of price increases earlier in the year, but now we have, you know, copper and steel, and it was increasingly focused in the secure. So what do you guys prepare to do, and then what's customer feedback been to the pricing? Thank you.
Brooks Mallard: Yeah. So yeah, on the guidance, the $15 million midpoint raise was related to FX. And that's really, you know, kind of in the back half of the year, you know, where, you know, the dollar is going to be weaker this year versus what it was last year, right? I think we were pretty, pretty clear on that in terms of the remarks. But that's where the revision to the upside is coming, both from an earnings per share and from an EBITDA perspective. On the pricing side, look, you know, we waited to roll out our pricing till, you know, significantly later than we usually do because of the impacts of tariffs. And so, and so we're going to see, you know, sequentially, you know, as we move from Q2 to Q3, a little bit more upside than we would normally see.
Yeah, so yeah. On the, on the guidance, the the the 15 million dollar midpoint raise was related to, um, FX and and that's really, you know, kind of in the back half of the year um, you know where uh, you know the the the dollar is going to be weaker this year versus what it was last year, right? I think we were pretty pretty clear on that in terms of the uh, the remarks, but that's where the that's where the revision to the upside is coming both from an earnings per share.
Brooks Mallard: You know, having said that, you know, we dialed our pricing back, you know, based on some of the tariff changes and based on some of the other things that are going on. And so we've, you know, we've said from the beginning, we're going to be dollar neutral on tariffs. You know, we don't have to do as much stuff operationally because of some of the changes. And we don't need quite as much pricing as we thought we did, you know, because of some of the changes. And so, you know, we feel like we're in a really good spot on tariffs. And then, and you know, as we talk about the growth algorithm in the second half, you know, being a little bit higher, I mean, that's part of it as well.
Because of some of the changes and and we don't need quite as much pricing as as we thought we did, you know because of some of the changes. Um and so you know we feel like we're in a really good spot on tariffs.
Brooks Mallard: We're getting a little bit of a bump from a little bit more second-half pricing relative to the first half than we normally see.
Um, and then, you know, as we talked about the growth algorithm in the second half, you know, being a little bit higher, and that's part of it as well. We're getting a little bit of a bump from a little bit more second half pricing relative to the first half than we normally see.
Ivo Jurek: All right. That's super clear. Thank you, guys.
Rich Kwas: Thanks.
All right. Super clear. Thank you guys.
Thanks.
Eric: Your next question comes from the line of David Rasel with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Your next question comes from the line of David Russell with every core isi.
Rich Kwas: Hi. Thank you very much. I was just curious, the cadence for the rest of the year on the organic, obviously, PT has been outgrowing FP for a while. I'm just curious, given some of the bigger deltas potentially with the off-highway OEMs, do you expect Fluid to outgrow PT in the fourth quarter? I'm just getting a sense of the growth rates exiting '25 into '26. Any help between the business segments would be helpful.
Hi, thank you very much. I was just curious about the cadence for the rest of the year on the organic. Obviously, PT has been outgrowing Fluid Power for a while. I'm just curious, given some of the bigger deltas potentially with the off-highway OEMs, do you expect Fluid to outgrow PT in the fourth quarter? I'm just getting a sense of the growth rates exiting 2025 into 2026. Any help between the business segments would be helpful.
Ivo Jurek: Yeah, I don't, you know, I don't think so, Dave, because Fluid Power is pretty significantly represented with on-highway in construction, obviously, as you know, big hydraulics consumer, and so on and so forth. So I think that I think that PT has the opportunity to continue to outperform, particularly taking into an account personal mobility. But we do see that most of our data center revenue, obviously, is going to be in FP, so that that's going to be accretive predominantly in 2026.
yeah, I don't, I don't you know, I don't think so Dave because uh,
Rich Kwas: Okay. So the ag improvement, we don't see construction up in the fourth quarter? I mean, it sounds like you think ag might be up, but just trying to extrapolate that to be versus PT.
Um fluid power is uh pretty significantly represented with on Highway in construction, obviously as you know, big Hydraulics consumer and so on so forth. So I I think that um I think that PT uh has the opportunity to continue to to outperform particularly taking into account, uh, personal Mobility. Uh, but we do we do see that uh most of our data center Revenue, obviously is going to be in FP. So that that's going to be a creative predominantly 2026.
Ivo Jurek: Yeah. I mean, you know, I wouldn't be, you know, I wouldn't be providing guidance at this point in time further than would be provided on commercial construction. I mean, there's a probability that we can start seeing some inflection potentially as we exit the year, but you know, I want to see another quarter of the market before you know I'll be more, you know, before I'll lean towards providing additional support.
Okay, so the improvement—we don't see construction up in the fourth quarter. I mean, it sounds like you think it might be up, but I'm just trying to extrapolate that, I think.
Yeah.
You know, I wouldn't be, you know, I wouldn't be providing guidance at this point in time further than would be a provided on, uh, on commercial construction. I mean there's a probability that that we can start seeing some inflection, potentially, as we exit the year. But, you know, I want to see another quarter of
Rich Kwas: And on the savings, the activities around the factories and so forth, any base case savings that roll from '25 to '26 as we think about any margin help from those actions? And maybe, you know, any offsets, you mentioned some of the incremental spending on new product for personal mobility. I'm just trying to set up some puts and takes for exiting '25 into '26. Thank you.
Uh, uh, of the market before, you know, I will be more, um, you know, before I lean towards providing additional support.
Brooks Mallard: Yeah. I mean, we had embedded the, you know, some of the things that we've already done in '25 into our guidance. So that's already in there for '25. You know, there'll be a slight bit of carryover as you move from '25 to '26. But if we said in our, you know, in our earnings presentation, you know, you know, because of all the moving parts with tariffs and the trade negotiations and things like that, you know, things have just taken a little bit longer. And so we're not going to see the full throughput of some of our restructuring activities until the end of '26, right? So we'll start to generate those through '26, but we won't see the full impact until the end of '26.
And on the savings, uh, the activities are on the factories and so forth. Any base case savings, that's that role from 25 to 26. As we think about any margin help from those actions and maybe, you know, any offsets you mentioned. Some of the incremental spending on new product for personal Mobility. I'm just trying to set up some puts and takes for exiting. 25 into 26. Thank you. Yeah. I mean, we, we had embedded the, the, you know, some of the, the things that we've already done, um, in 25 into our guidance. So that so that's already in there, uh, for for 25, you know, they'll be, they'll be a slight bit of carryover As you move from 25 to 26. But if we said in our, um, you know, in our in our earnings, uh, presentation, you know, but you know, because of all the moving Parts with tariffs and the trade negotiations and things like that, you know, things have just taken a little bit longer. And so we're not going to see the full throughput of some of our restructuring activities, until the end of 26, right?
Rich Kwas: That's helpful. Thank you.
So we'll we'll start to generate those 326 but we won't see the full impact until the end of 26.
That's helpful. Thank you.
Rich Kwas: Thanks, Ben.
Thanks. Bye.
Eric: I'll now turn the call back over to Rich Kwas for closing remarks. Please go ahead.
Rich Kwas: All right. Thanks, everyone. If you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out. Otherwise, have a great rest of the week. Take care.
I'll now turn the call back over to Rich Claus. For closing remarks. Please go ahead.
All right, thanks everyone. If you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out. Otherwise have a great rest of the week. Take care.
Eric: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect.
ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call thank you all for joining and you may now disconnect