Q2 2025 Ellington Financial Inc Earnings Call

Speaker #3: To all sites on hold, we appreciate your patience and holding, and we ask you to please continue to stand by. We should be getting started in approximately two more minutes.

Speaker #3: Thanks again, everyone. Please stand by. We're to begin. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ellington Financial second quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

Speaker #3: Today's call is being recorded. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode. The floor will be open for your questions following the presentation.

Speaker #3: If you would like to ask a question during that time, simply press star, then the number one on your telephone. If at any time your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star two.

Speaker #3: Lastly, if you should require operator assistance, please press star zero at any time. Now, at time, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Alaael-Deen Shilleh, Associate General Counsel.

Speaker #3: Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker #4: Thank you. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that this conference call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Speaker #4: These statements are not historical in nature and involve risks and uncertainties detailed in our annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC. Actual results may differ materially from these statements, so they should not be considered to be predictions of future events.

Speaker #4: Let me undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Joining me today are Larry Penn, Chief Executive Officer of Allison Financial; Mark Tecotzky, Co-Chief Investment Officer; and J.

Speaker #4: Herlihy, Chief Financial Officer. Our second quarter earnings conference call presentation is available on our website, ellingtonfinancial.com. Today's call will track that presentation, and all statements and references to figures are qualified by the important notice in EdNotes in the presentation.

Speaker #4: With that, I'll it over to Larry.

Speaker #5: Thanks, Alaael-Deen. Good morning, everyone. And thank you for joining us today. We'll on slide three of the presentation. Ellington Financial delivered an excellent second quarter.

Speaker #5: With broad-based contributions, from both our diversified investment portfolio and our loan origination platforms. For the quarter, Ellington Financial generated GAAP net income of $0.45 per share, equating to an annualized economic return of nearly 14%.

Speaker #5: With book value per share increasing quarter over quarter, to $13.49. Meanwhile, our adjusted distributable earnings per share increased sequentially by $0.08 to $0.47. Significantly exceeding our $0.39 of dividends per share.

Speaker #5: In a volatile but opportunity-rich second quarter, Ellington Financial once again demonstrated the strength and adaptability of its platform. Early in the quarter, as credit spreads widened amid tariff-related uncertainty, we were very well positioned as we had a large credit hedge portfolio coming into the quarter.

Speaker #5: In recent periods, we have tended to increase our corporate credit hedges somewhat in response to tighter corporate credit spreads. And then monetize some of those credit hedges if spreads widen.

Speaker #5: During market-wide negative credit shocks, such as we saw in early April, our corporate credit hedges not only helped stabilize our book value, but they also bolster our liquidity.

Speaker #5: As we have daily access in cash to the mark-to-market gains on these positions. During the April sell-off, with markets dislocated and our liquidity positions strong, we were well positioned to capitalize on the environment by adding attractively priced securities.

Speaker #5: That early April market volatility also helped guide our securitization activity. Following a first quarter in which we executed five well-timed securitizations, we temporarily paused issuance during early April and then resumed activity only after spreads had stabilized.

Speaker #5: Our patient approach was rewarded as we ended up completing a full six securitizations over the course of the second quarter at attractive levels. As a result of all this activity, our overall portfolio size remained roughly unchanged quarter over quarter.

Speaker #5: Securitizations and tactical sales, along with steady principal repayments from our short-term loans, were largely offset by opportunistic purchases and growth in our mortgage loan portfolios, particularly in non-QM, proprietary reverse, and commercial mortgage bridge.

Speaker #5: Turning back to our adjusted distributable earnings, as I noted, we reported a terrific eight-cent increase this quarter to $0.47 per share. That very strong result reflected both steady credit performance from our loan portfolio, as well as standout contributions from our loan origination platforms, most notably 13 cents in ADE contributions from Longbridge.

Speaker #5: Longbridge's strong quarter was driven by solid performance across all components of its business. Origination profits driven by volume growth and stable margins in both HECM and proprietary reverse securitization gains reflecting a successful properverse securitization transaction in May, and servicing income driven by recurring MSR revenue and strong tail securitizations.

Speaker #5: We also benefited from notably strong performance from our non-QM originator affiliates, Lensure and American Heritage. Underpinned in each case by high origination volumes and continued solid operating margins.

Speaker #5: Given our equity stakes in these originators, their profitability contributed nicely to EFC's bottom line for the quarter. More importantly, we continue to earn robust net interest income from the non-QM loans and retained non-QM tranches we hold on our balance sheet.

Speaker #5: Many of which continue to be sourced from these two affiliates of ours. Meanwhile, we continue to expand our strategic originator partnerships. During the quarter, we closed on another equity investment in a non-QM and RTL originator.

Speaker #5: This strategic investment was accompanied by our typical forward flow agreement with that originator, consistent with our strategy of securing ongoing access to high-quality loans at attractive pricing and on a predictable timeline.

Speaker #5: With that, I'll turn the call over to JR to walk through our financial results in more detail. JR?

Speaker #6: Thanks, Larry. Good morning, everyone. For the second quarter, we reported GAAP net income of $0.45 for common share, on a fully mark-to-market basis, and ADE of $0.47 per share.

Speaker #6: On slide five of the deck, you can see the portfolio income breakdown by strategy. 61 cents per share from credit, negative 1 cent from agency and 11 cents from Longbridge.

Speaker #6: And on slide six, you can see the ADE breakdown by segment. 56 cents per share from the investment portfolio segment and 13 cents per share from the Longbridge segment.

Speaker #6: In the credit portfolio, net interest income grew sequentially, and we also had net realized and unrealized gains on non-QM loans and retained tranches, closed in second-lean loans and retained tranches, and other loans and ABS.

Speaker #6: Positive results from equity investments in loan originators further supported results. Partially offsetting higher net interest income were net unrealized losses on Ford MSRs and losses on residential and commercial REO.

Speaker #6: Our agency portfolio, meanwhile, had a modest loss as agency yield spreads were volatile and finished the quarter wider overall. The Longbridge segment had an excellent quarter, both in terms of GAAP net income and ADE.

Speaker #6: With strong contributions from both originations and servicing, in originations, higher origination volumes in both HECM and proprietary reverse loans, steady origination margins for both products, and net gains related to a monetary reverse mortgage loan securitization drove results.

Speaker #6: Meanwhile, MSR-related income from strong tail securitization executions and a net gain on the HMBS MSR equivalent, primarily due to tighter HMBS yield spreads, drove the positive contribution from servicing.

Speaker #6: These gains were partially offset by net losses on interest rate hedges. Turning now to portfolio changes during the quarter. Slide seven shows a 1% increase of our justed long credit portfolio to $3.32 billion quarter over quarter.

Speaker #6: Our portfolios of commercial mortgage bridge loans, non-QM loans, and non-agency RMBS all expanded, driven by net purchases. These increases were largely offset by the impact of securitizations, tactical sales of HELOCs to non-QM loans, and a aller residential transition loan portfolio, with principal paydowns in that portfolio exceeding new purchases.

Speaker #6: In addition, we successfully resolved a larger non-performing commercial mortgage asset during the quarter and now have only one significant workout remaining. Meanwhile, for our RTL commercial mortgage and consumer loan portfolios, we received total principal paydowns of $248 million during the second quarter, which represented 15% of the combined fair value of those portfolios coming into the quarter, as those short-duration portfolios continued to return capital steadily and provide excellent visibility on evolving credit trends.

Speaker #6: On slide eight, ou can see that our total long agency RMBS portfolio while still small increased by 5% to $269 million. Slide nine illustrates that our Longbridge portfolio decreased by 1% sequentially to $546 million as the impact of the securitization of proprietary reverse mortgage loans completed during the quarter slightly exceeded the impact of new originations in that sector.

Speaker #6: Please turn next to slide 10 for a summary of our borrowings. At June 30th, the total weighted average borrowing rate on recourse borrowings decreased by two basis points to 6.07% overall, with a notable 15 basis points decline on credit borrowings.

Speaker #6: Quarter over quarter, the net interest margin on our credit portfolio increased by 21 basis points, while the NIM on agency decreased by 17 basis points.

Speaker #6: With the size of our overall investment portfolio largely unchanged quarter over quarter, our leverage ratios were unchanged as well. At both March 31st and June 30th, our recourse debt-to-equity ratio was 1.7 to 1, and including consolidated securitizations, our overall debt-to-equity ratio was 8.7 to 1.

Speaker #6: At June 30th, combined cash and unencumbered assets increased to about $920 million or more than 50% of our total equity. Our total economic return for the second quarter was 3.3% non-annualized, and our book value per share increased to $13.49.

Speaker #6: As has consistently been the case, we carry no goodwill on our balance sheet, despite having made select corporate acquisitions over the years. And we do not recognize any deferred tax assets.

Speaker #6: As a result, our reported book value is a fully tangible book value. With that, I'll pass it over to Mark.

Speaker #7: Thanks, JR. I'm very happy with our performance this quarter. It feels to me like EFC has shifted into a new gear. We had broad-based contributions across the investment portfolio, including from our investments in originators and a significant contribution from the Longbridge segment.

Speaker #7: Despite paying a generous dividend, book value per share increased. Over the past decade, we have methodically and thoughtfully assembled the building blocks of vertical integration.

Speaker #7: And that architecture is now coming through in full force in our gap earnings ADE and securitization volumes. Along the way, we have taken equity stakes in several mortgage originators and have nurtured their growth.

Speaker #7: Our portfolio of originator affiliates is growing market share, generating significant loan volumes for EFC, and operating highly profitably. We have deliberately constructed Ellington Financial's loan business so that our investments in mortgage originators can secure us a steady pipeline of high-quality loans, which, through the securitization process, we can turn into high-yielding investments for our portfolio.

Speaker #7: And now, thanks to a robust origination portal developed by our technology team, EFC is purchasing non-QM loans from a wider range of lenders who accessed our competitive pricing and seamless workflow through a web-based platform.

Speaker #7: Our loan volume growth is enabling more frequent securitizations, which both reduces market risk and creates those high-yielding retained investments for our portfolio. Each incremental securitization also expands the universe of loans on which we benefit from valuable call options and strengthens our brand as a best-in-class securitization platform.

Speaker #7: A well-branded platform is a huge competitive advantage. It enables us to lower our liability costs relative to our peers, sharpen our pricing, and acquire the loans we find most attractive.

Speaker #7: One highlight this quarter is that we were able to increase both ADE and net interest margin while keeping our overall portfolio size largely unchanged.

Speaker #7: One important driver of this improvement in efficiency comes from our expanding portfolio of high-yielding securitization retained tranches, which contribute outsized ADE. We completed six securitizations this quarter, a record for EFC.

Speaker #7: These transactions replaced repo financing with non-mark-to-market long-term financing enhancing the stability of our balance sheet and guarding against potential funding shocks. What's more, as our warehouse lenders see the consistency our deal executions, they are able to provide EFC with more favorable financing terms on our warehouse lines.

Speaker #7: In commercial real estate lending, our bridge loan business is back in growth mode with more high-quality properties to lend against and more sponsors we want to work with.

Speaker #7: Our partnership with Sheridan Capital has been instrumental in driving this expansion. As with non-QM, we have also successfully lowered our ancing costs for this product.

Speaker #7: As our lenders recognize both our expanding footprint and the quality of our collateral and sponsors, as with non-QM, lower financing spreads for our commercial bridge business have been a great tailwind for our net interest margin.

Speaker #7: So we are expanding NIM from both sides of the equation by adding high-yielding assets including more retained tranches and more commercial bridge loans. And by lowering our funding costs in multiple parts of the portfolio.

Speaker #7: As a result, we were able to expand the NIM on our credit portfolio by 21 beeps the quarter, despite the general tightening of asset spreads in the market.

Speaker #7: This quarter also featured strong earnings contributions from our portfolio of originator affiliates. EFC provides our affiliates with consistent and competitive loan pricing. Our originator affiliates have then used that pricing power to grow both market share and profitability while our investments in these mortgage originators have been highly profitable even in the current industry environment that could be even more profitable should interest rates decline meaningfully from here when I expect both volumes and operating margins to expand significantly.

Speaker #7: There was lot of action in the past few months at FHFA, including major turnover at the Fannie Mae and Freddie boards. If as expected, the footprint the GSEs shrank, that door will open further for Ellington Financial to expand into a whole host of new loan sectors that Fannie and Freddie Mack pull back from.

Speaker #7: These market changes could have the potential to broaden our securitization platform and allow us to deploy capital in some very deep but also very profitable new areas.

Speaker #7: But there are always things to be careful about. First on our mind is home price appreciation. Weakness in home prices once more localized is now more widespread.

Speaker #7: We are monitoring this closely and believe we are appropriately pricing for the risk. With last week's job report prompting revisions to many economic forecasts, the odds have increased for lower interest rates, offering some HPA support.

Speaker #7: Meanwhile, our research team continues to study monthly remittance reports in detail. Lastly, as we grow our loan volumes, we need to stay laser-focused on execution.

Speaker #7: We know we have to provide consistent pricing and best-in-class service to our origination partners and ensure that our securitization process remains a well-oiled machine.

Speaker #7: We also need to closely and vigilantly analyze incoming data so we can adjust our lending guidelines in real time in response to signs of weakness in housing or consumer health.

Speaker #7: Now, back to Larry.

Speaker #5: Thank you, Mark. EFC's gap earnings and ADE have exceeded our dividends so far in 2025. And I am confident that trend will carry through the back half of the year.

Speaker #5: Building on that momentum, our third quarter is off to a great start. With four securitizations priced so far, bringing our year-to-date total to 15.

Speaker #5: We continue to see strong performance across both our investment portfolio and our origination platforms. Longbridge's momentum has also carried right into the third quarter, with July setting a new high for originations in 2025.

Speaker #5: We are particularly excited about the recent launch of Longbridge's HELOC for seniors program, which we believe has the potential to become a meaningful contributor to EFC's earnings.

Speaker #5: While we haven't talked much about it before today, Mark mentioned the clear benefits we're seeing from the recent rollout of Ellington's non-QM loan origination portal, which enables our approved non-QM sellers to lock in loan sales to EFC through a fully automated web-based platform.

Speaker #5: This proprietary technology not only enables us to significantly scale our non-QM loan purchase volumes, but at the same time, it delivers real-time market feedback to our loan origination partners and ultimately streamlines the entire underwriting process.

Speaker #5: Our non-QM portal has enabled us to expand and further diversify our origination footprint by deepening relationships with both affiliate and non-affiliate originators alike, with new origination partners signing onto the platform virtually every week.

Speaker #5: Looking ahead to the remainder of the year, EFC is truly firing on all cylinders now, and so 'm really optimistic that we will continue to both comfortably cover our dividend and grow book value per share.

Speaker #5: As you can see on the bottom of slide three, we're doing this even while keeping our liquidity positions strong and our recourse leverage low.

Speaker #5: Thus, providing us with ample capacity to jump on any extraordinary opportunities as they emerge, like we saw in April. Finally, we are also committed to further strengthening our liability structure not only through additional securitizations, but also by strategically increasing our unsecured borrowings over time.

Speaker #5: And with that, let's open the floor to Q&A. Operator, please go head.

Speaker #8: Thank you y much, Mr. Penn. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, who do you have any questions, please press star one. If you find your question has already been addressed, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star two.

Speaker #8: We go first this morning to both George of KBW.

Speaker #9: Hey, guys. Good morning. Can you talk about the outlook for Longbridge? If rates decline, you know, just how it helps the business. And then, to the extent that, you know, volumes are increasing across the board for a lot of other asset mortgage types as well, how does that impact it?

Speaker #9: Is there kind of a shift of attention for some of the producers to other loan types? Or, yeah, I'm just wondering if you could walk through that.

Speaker #5: Thanks, both. I'll handle the part about Longbridge, and then 'll pass it over to Mark for second half of your question. So, yeah, so declining rates would absolutely help Longbridge.

Speaker #5: in a couple of different ways. So, first of all, the, what, what, in the reverse business is known as the, you know, the principal factors, I believe.

Speaker #5: basically, the percentage of the home value that a borrower is able to take out. Of course, that's going to depend on the borrower's age, right?

Speaker #5: The older the borrower, the higher the percentage of that; effectively, the higher the LTV, starting LTV, they'll be able to have on that mortgage. So, as rates decline, those principal factors increase because it's all done via a present value calculation, mostly based upon where the 10-year Treasury is.

Speaker #5: So, and as you can imagine, a reverse mortgage has become more attractive. The more that borrowers are able take out. And this is true for the HECM product, where basically HUD, dictates what the, you know, what ose principal factors are.

Speaker #5: Principal balance factors. And it's also true for our proprietary product because, again, we're going to base things on long-term where long-term rates are as well.

Speaker #5: So, we'll absolutely see more activity, and that's what we, you know, we've seen a very strong correlation in the past. As rates, drop, especially the 10-year treasury in particular, the, h, the amount that, borrowers effectively there starting LTV increases, and that, definitely, entices borrowers to take out more, reverse mortgages.

Speaker #5: And, of course, this increases the loan balance in each one that they take out. Of course, when you've got fixed-rate loans as well, and we have both types in our portfolio, as rates drop, you're also going to have a lot of refinance activity.

Speaker #5: And I would note that Longbridge's market share has increased over the past several years. So you're talking about capturing a larger percentage of the entire universe, including loans that were originated, you know, probably from some lenders that are now out of business.

Speaker #5: I would note that we actually, you know, having seen the, if you will, the directionality of Longbridge's business and, you know, their killing it right now, even with rates where they are today, we actually have a specific hedge in the Longbridge segment.

Speaker #5: Basically, recognizing this phenomenon. So, as rates have gone up, we make money on the hedge. And as rates go down, we lose money on the hedge, but that's offset by greater origination refi activity.

Speaker #5: And then I'll pass it to Mark for the second half of our question.

Speaker #10: Yeah. Hey, both. Could you repeat the second half again?

Speaker #9: Yeah. The second half was just if volumes pick up, you know, and a lot of the other mortgage asset classes, I was just curious whether, you ow, some of the originators shift to other things or a lot of the folks you deal dedicated to the product.

Speaker #10: So the originators' stakes we have they are focused almost exclusively on non-QM and then to a lesser extent, residential transition lending. I think what you have seen, though, is some of the larger non-banks doing more non-QM origination.

Speaker #10: At a time when agency volumes are very low, I would expect that if rates were to drop from here, you might see a shift from some of the non-banks to focus more on their core agency business and less on non-QM.

Speaker #10: But for the originators we're working with, they're really non-QM, you know, primarily focused all the time.

Speaker #9: Okay. Great. And then actually, just a question on your outlook for home prices. You know, to the extent home prices, you know, continue to moderate, maybe negative, you know, do you think that, you ow, that's a possibility or just how do you think that or the likelihood of that happening?

Speaker #9: And then just what do you think that could do to credit spreads?

Speaker #10: Yeah. You know, if I think back, we have this internal portal we use, which gets data from a variety of sources.

Speaker #10: And then it aggregates it. And we can use that to really zoom in on local markets. And if I think about what we're eing now, versus six months ago, and I mentioned this in the prepared remarks, is six months ago, we saw some weakness in home prices.

Speaker #10: But it was fairly localized. You know, Gulf Coast of Florida, Gulf Coast of Texas, maybe San Francisco. And if I look at that now, I would say the areas where we're seeing weakness are more broad-based.

Speaker #10: We attribute it to a combination of factors. One, I think the most obvious one is that, you know, home prices have gone up a lot.

Speaker #10: So you ow there's affordability challenges. Just in the price of the home, but then on top of that, you've seen rising taxes and insurance costs in some areas, which are exacerbating the affordability issue.

Speaker #10: So you know we are pricing for it. We monitor it very closely. In terms of our forecast for HPA nationally, you know I ink HPA for the next year on the national basis is going to be fairly muted.

Speaker #10: You know a couple percent. I think what's notable is that you've seen a lot of forecasters dialing down their HPA assumptions so I would say that six months to a year ago, we were probably a little bit more bearish than most forecasters.

Speaker #10: I'd say right now, we're ably sort of middle of the pack because we've kind of kept our expectations. We sort of expected this weakness has come to fruition.

Speaker #10: You know, if you look at non-QM delinquencies now versus where they were, say, in 2020, delinquencies are definitely higher. I think for the first five or six years of the life of non-QM — and it's a relatively new product, right?

Speaker #10: So really started 2016. So 2016 to 2021, I think the performance was shockingly good. And as a result, ou've seen a lot of upgrades of tranches.

Speaker #10: I would say now it's sort of more performing in line with expectations. So delinquencies have gone up from you know if you think about how much credit enhancement you have in securitizations, you still have huge amounts of you know a huge amount of credit enhanced relative to expected losses.

Speaker #10: So you've seen securitization spreads holding well, but you know you ow performance is more normalized than what it was three or four years ago.

Speaker #9: Okay. Great. Thanks.

Speaker #8: Thanks. Thank you. We go next now to Christian Love. Christian, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker #11: So on loan originator platforms, definitely been some more activity in deals in the mortgage originator space broadly. So curious if you're seeing more opportunities brought to you directly.

Speaker #11: Sounds like you added one in the quarter, maybe interested in adding more. So what areas could those be to build on the current platform of non-QM and RTL today?

Speaker #11: You know.

Speaker #10: The playbook we've used is we've generally made equity investments in platforms that we've worked with for a while. Platforms we know, platforms where there's been ongoing dialogue about how they think about credit, how they think about underwriting.

Speaker #10: Some of the more high-profile transactions you've seen this year have been bigger, more established platforms that require you to own a more significant check.

Speaker #10: We have liked on the non-QM side and the RTL side, smaller checks, securing some volume, and then growing that originator by virtue of sort of the economic you know sort of economic heft EFC can bring to the table in terms being warehouse lines and things like that.

Speaker #10: And also, sharing with these platforms what we're eing in terms of credit performance, the function of guidelines, maybe doing forward trades them. So I think for us, we'll continue to see opportunities.

Speaker #10: You know I think it's less likely you'd see us make a significant acquisition in non-QM that would require a large check only because we've been able to secure volume with a different model of a small check and then putting in some sweat equity.

Speaker #10: And that's worked out well for us.

Speaker #5: Yeah. Just to add on that, Mark, I agree with you 100%. We you know if you look at the ratio of the volume that we secure from one of these investments, you know to the investment itself, right?

Speaker #5: It's been very large. And we like that. As compared to some these other higher-profile transactions you've seen where it would you know it wouldn't be nearly as you ow as efficient, if you will.

Speaker #5: So we're not you ow we're not trying to build I mean, our portfolio of investments in these types of companies is on the order of magnitude of 60 million JR, something like that.

Speaker #5: Not counting Longbridge. Yeah, 60, 70-odd million. Longbridge is an exception, right? Because that is a unique company. And again, the investment there majority of that investment in the platform is in MSRs, which are you know a yield-bearing asset for us.

Speaker #5: So in any case, yeah, we like the playbook that we've you know acted on so far. And I don't see us you know writing any huge checks to buy originators, you know which would create some cyclicality as well.

Speaker #10: Great. I think you appreciate all that. And then can you just share your latest on credit quality? I know ou had some bridge multifamily workouts.

Speaker #10: I think there’s just one left today, so I'm just curious about the progress there. What’s the current view on the credit portfolio? And then also, what’s the drag on net interest income today from the workouts?

Speaker #5: you want to know what? Take that.

Speaker #10: Yeah. Sure. Sure.

Speaker #5: Okay. Hopefully, we don't have that feedback. Right. So I made the point that we just have one significant workout remaining. After working one out in Q2, we do have some other delinquent loans that are, you know, working through the process of resolution.

Speaker #5: But none of which we see as significant drags on earnings besides that one that I identified. And the one I identified is you know more than 30 million fair value.

Speaker #5: And it's, and we've talked about it in the last few calls that it's going to take a little while, and we're going through it.

Speaker #5: But it's a longer-term horizon for the resolution most likely. But otherwise, you know resolutions are moving through the pipeline quickly. In our queue, we'll show delinquency percentages for RESI and commercial.

Speaker #5: As we always do in MDNA and in notes, and you'll able to see trends that are continuing. We are seeing some percentages that don't necessarily reflect the speed at which we resolve.

Speaker #5: And importantly, the the high kind of recovery percentage, if you will, given the delinquency. So we think the best measure is looking at both together.

Speaker #5: So, temporary delinquencies in the context of ultimate resolution proceeds—and so our realized losses, which is kind of the product of those two—continue to be extremely low across all of these RESI and commercial loan strategies.

Speaker #10: Yeah. And on that $30 million workout, it's now gotten to the point where, you know, we're getting very close to break-even on that.

Speaker #10: So you know let's call it less than a penny a year. Of drag, but then once we've you know replaced that with one of our you know and redeployed that capital into one of our typical strategies, then you know you're looking at probably another four cents a year on the positive side.

Speaker #10: So you know that'll be a nickel per year, not per quarter, but per year swing that we you know sort of look forward to as a 20 you know by 2026, right?

Speaker #10: This is not a 2025 event. To resolve that loan, but you know I'm optimistic that it's a 2026 event. Great. Appreciate it. And thanks for the call.

Speaker #5: Thanks, Christian.

Speaker #8: Thank you. And just a quick reminder, ladies and gentlemen, please press star one for any further questions today. We go next now to Trevor Cranston of Citizens JMP.

Speaker #11: All right. Thanks. Question on Longbridge. Larry, you briefly mentioned the new HELOC for seniors product that they're offering. I was wondering if you uld you know provide some color on kind what that product is and how it differs from sort of a traditional HELOC.

Speaker #11: And then the part of the question, you ow with the momentum you're seeing at Longbridge in general, has there been a change in how you guys are thinking about sort of the long-term run rate earnings contribution from them?

Speaker #11: And if you could be comment on how that potentially flows through to your thinking about the dividend level. Thanks.

Speaker #5: Sure. Yeah. I mean, I think a few quarters ago, we were optimistic that Longbridge would be contributing $0.09 of ADE a quarter. Obviously, that's been, you know, we've beaten that.

Speaker #5: And I am cautiously optimistic that we're going to continue to beat that. This HELOC for seniors program, you know, may not kick in right away, obviously, but I think it could be a big seller.

Speaker #5: It's basically similar, you know, to other reverse products, right? In that there's, you know, no maturity that's date-specific, right? But it doesn't have negative amortization.

Speaker #5: The way that you know the way that other reverse products do. So, yeah, you know it’s just the pressure of a fixed maturity date, right?

Speaker #5: Isn't there? And yeah, so I think that handles both parts of your question.

Speaker #11: Okay. Got it. Thank you, guys.

Speaker #8: Thank you. We go next now to Doug Harder of UBS. Doug, please go ahead.

Speaker #12: Thanks. And good ning. You talked about kind keeping your leverage you ow low in the current environment, waiting for opportunities. You know how are you thinking about you know kind of the ability, if loan volume picks up, to kind of handle regular way?

Speaker #12: You know regular way increase, you know, do you need to kind of raise more capital to do that? And what is your appetite to do that?

Speaker #5: Yeah. Well, I think the very last part of my closing remarks alluded to how I think, looking at our capital structure, we could use more unsecured debt.

Speaker #5: So I think that's the logical that would be the logical next step for us. And you ow just now, really forward-looking, but over time, it would be great if more and more of the debt side of our balance sheet was you ow longer-term unsecured debt.

Speaker #5: The you ow, the debt markets both you know high-yield non-investment grade are much you ow much tighter spreads, especially for newer issuers than they were not that long ago.

Speaker #5: So I think it could be great for a company like us to replace a lot of our shorter-term funding with, you know, with longer-term unsecured debt. And, you know, we could keep our leverage low, but we could also deploy, you know, that capital in assets that are yielding more, you know, certainly more than the debt is, if you look at where spreads are.

Speaker #5: So that's what we look forward to doing. And, you know, in a lot of the markets, if it becomes sort of a virtuous cycle, as we get better execution on our unsecured notes, then those unsecured notes start yielding, you know, as far as cost of funds go, become competitive with our repo and warehouse financing.

Speaker #5: So, obviously, you know much better in terms of capital structure, and you know then having the short-term debt on the balance sheet.

Speaker #5: So that's kind of looking very long-term, I think, aspirationally, where we want to go. And there are other companies, obviously, in the mortgage space that you have successfully done that.

Speaker #12: Great. I mean, guess do you you ow how scalable do you think that is in the near term? And you ow how deep you know do you think the you know kind of that market would be for you to kind of look to increase the size of that?

Speaker #5: Oh, the market's very deep, and that's not the issue. So, I think it's just a question of, yeah, I just think the market's there for us.

Speaker #5: So it's just a question of getting it done. And yeah, so I'll just leave it at that.

Speaker #11: Great. Appreciate .

Speaker #8: Thank you. Go next now to Randy Benner of B. Riley.

Speaker #13: Hey, thanks. I just have one, mostly covered at this point, but just on your comments on FHFA and you know the potential for the footprint of the GSEs to be smaller, you know, as it relates to non-QM.

Speaker #13: And it's something we've talked about; it's intuitive. My question is, would you be open to discussing a little bit about what that would look like more specifically? Meaning, you know, is it just more opportunities, or is there the potential for new product types, new distribution, instead of leveraging your existing?

Speaker #13: As we kind of march towards it, it seems inevitable that something's going to happen with Fannie and Freddie. There are headlines out literally while we've been on this call.

Speaker #13: Just be interested to like hear like kind the specifics of like what it might look like as a market opportunity specifically for Ellington.

The GSCs have a cross-sub mentality where they do not price the cost of their insurance strictly as a function of risk. It's not really risk-based pricing. Some of their pricing decisions are guided by sort of their mission. So, if you look at the pricing of, um,

The G fee and the loan level price adjustments on second homes.

And on, um, investor properties.

The, uh, cost of insurance. There is far, far, far exceeds, historical losses and Far, Far exceeds.

Projection of future losses, right? Right. And it's been those areas where you've seen loans that are eligible for Fannie and Freddie. They have a Freddie cert, the FMI. If they're over 80, those loans are now being bought by investors that choose to self-insure and take the extra spread, or they're going into a private label securitization. Right? So, that's what I see as the most immediate opportunity set.

Um, as you mentioned, there's been, um, continuing, uh, headlines and continuing, um, ideas put out there about the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So I think we'll have to wait and see what happens there, but.

The most immediate tangible thing now that we're acting on are these, um, second homes and investor loans that qualify for, uh, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guarantee fees. But what Fannie and Freddie charge is far, far in excess of reasonable expectations of credit losses because they, they want to, they, they don't perceive those as, um,

Court to their mission, and they want to use profits on those loans to subsidize other loans that are more court to their mission.

Got it. Is that, I mean, is that why? I mean, like, RTL is something you all have done for a lot of it. Just it's a more kind of en vogue, I guess. It seems like, um, is that just pricing increasingly for those, is getting kind of inside that GC?

Right? So, it's just going more to the private market. Is that what's happening? Were you saying, were you saying on RTL's, the residential transition loans?

Talking about, you know, um, there's a house, it's fully renovated. Someone wants to buy it and rent it out and F**** and Freddy historically have guaranteed a lot of those, the um, credit performance been excellent on them. But the, uh, loan level price adjustments, have been far far in excess of reasonable loss, expectations. And you've seen the private label Market step in and say, hey wait, we we'll take on that credit risk essentially, at at, at a lower cost.

Okay, that's helpful, caller. I appreciate it.

Sure, thank you.

Thank you. We go next to Eric Haugen of BTIG.

Okay. Thanks. Good morning. Um, following up on this disc. Hey, good morning. Yeah. Following up on this discussion here. I mean, would you say you're more constructive on the RTL space so that, you know, non-qm right now. I mean it seems like the the returns in RTL could be higher but there's probably more stable, you know, funding and you know, access to leverage for non-qm. So, how should investors like adjust for those? Where would you say the better like Risk adjusted return is in the market right now?

You know, we like them both.

and they both had, um,

A big place in our balance sheet. I think Larry mentioned, in his prepared remarks, that we are exploring potentially doing an RTL securitization. Historically, that's been a balance sheet product for us, so essentially funded with repo financing. Um, now we're exploring terming out that financing.

You know, I think there's more things you can do with non-QM, right? There's, you know, you can hold loans on balance sheet with repo financing; you can do a securitization; you can take a vertical slice; you can take a horizontal slice.

You know, then you have these call options. Maybe rates will drop or something will happen. You exercise the call option when you can. So the non-QM market gives you sort of a more wholesome opportunity, sets of things you can do as an owner of the loans and as a sponsor of deals.

In terms of expected, return.

I don't, you know, I don't see a material difference in them. I think.

They both serve different markets.

and they have a different role in the in, in the portfolio and, you know, but but the where the consistency for us

We have liked having deep relationships, either in equity stake or ongoing dialogue, with most of the UM.

Originators for each of those products that we find is really useful. You have a team.

That's out on the road, that's having.

Literally daily discussions with the Originators about what's going on with lending, what's going on with guidelines, what's going on with HPA, and that back and forth dialogue. I think what has been consistent in my mind are both those sectors and, you know, why we have the comfort level with each of them having, you know, a significant elegant allocation of capital.

Yeah, and if I could just expand on that, Mark. So, uh, first of all, as Mark said, you know, the securitization market is very developed now for non-QM, and it's become quite elastic as well.

Uh, so that as spreads of Titan on the asset, um, you know, spreads also tighten really nicely on the liability. So, um,

So, and that's something that we monitor very closely. We talked about this, you know, portal that we have, and we very much.

uh, will adjust

The, um, the, you know, the rates that we offer.

Are, um, you know, the lenders that are providing us with the product on that platform. Uh, very much will adjust those, you know, based upon where security where we see securiser we've been doing um, vertical risk retention as opposed to horizontal risk retention, and what that means is that

The, um, you know, sort of the riskier tranches of the securities that we retain from that issuance, we have the flexibility to sell those.

We are exploring, um, securitizing that product. We haven't done that, um, would be a, you know, kind of revolver-type structure. Um, so I think, um, you know, both markets have their advantages, um, non-obviously a lot more liquid, uh, RTL shorter maturities, which we like as well. So, um, and, uh, you know, but, but as we mentioned, on the prepared remarks, uh, we are seeing, you know, after, um, you know, certainly the problems in the...

Uh, commercial Bridge Loan Market overall, that were there, after the rise in rates in 2022 that, you know, now, uh, in a way has created, lots of opportunities. We're seeing more non-performing loans in for the bid, we're seeing more, you know, Bridge Loan opportunities. Um, you know, good sponsors. Good properties. So uh, We've definitely been focusing a lot of our efforts there.

Uh, thank you guys so much for the color today.

Thanks Eric.

Thank you. We'll go next now to Matthew Ner of Jones Trading.

Hi, Mr. Ner, your line is open. You might be on mute.

Hey guys, how's it going? Sorry about that. Um, you know, so I guess, um, in terms of extended opportunities in the non-QM space, I know you mentioned, uh, or sorry, not the non-QM space, but kind of the senior HELOCs there. Um, you know, what's the opportunity set that you're seeing there and kind of, um, the plans for that product?

Well, we just rolled it out. I don't want to give any projections.

On where that could go, but it's a unique product, right? And we think, I think we're the only ones offering it.

um,

And, um, you know, if you just think about the simplicity in a way of that product, um, it makes a lot of sense. Um, and we'll see how successful it is. It'll just be, you know, it'll just be gravy, obviously, because, like I said before, Long Bridges, you know, their results have been terrific, and we continue to expect them to be so. But, um, this could really add another dimension to that. So, I'd rather not, um, make any projections at this point. But, um, the product makes a ton of sense.

Got it, that's helpful. Um, and then Junior, I was wondering if you could comment on how you're thinking about the dividend over earnings this quarter. Um, and if you and the board have to see that introductory to allow it to grow, or just kind of your thoughts there on what you're thinking around the dividend.

Sure, I'll take that actually. Thanks, Larry. Um,

We've been, you know, as I said, our A and our gap, barring some of this year. It's covered the dividend.

Um,

and uh, we're

You know, I'm very optimistic and confident that it will continue to do so. As I said, we really are firing on all cylinders.

Um, so, uh, the next move, uh, if there is a move, I think it will be up. I, I would, you know, tell you that we've been fans of a very stable dividend if you go back to.

2018, I just looked so, this was really over, you know, 7 years ago. Our dividend was pretty close to where it was now. It was quarterly dividend not a monthly dividend, so I think we've, uh, done the right thing. Um, and kept our dividend very stable. Uh, over, what's a very long period of time. Um, but uh, I, I, I do think if there is a next move, it'll be up, but I really don't want to sort of forecast when that will be. Um, obviously that's a board decision to make and it's not, you know, given the stability of

Of our dividend. It would not be a decision that we would make lightly. Um, I think, uh, you know, increasing the amount of unsecured notes in our balance sheet could be a catalyst for that as well, right? Because, um, you know, then that enables us to safely increase our leverage.

Uh, and um, you know, create more ad and um, you know, dividend power, if you will, that way. So I see, you know, a lot of catalysts potentially for increasing demand, but it's not something that, you know, I want to try to put a, uh, a specific time frame on.

Got it. That's very helpful. And then, um, apologies if I missed it, but did you guys give a quarter-to-date book value update?

Uh, we've not yet. Uh, we'll do that later this month, uh, the month of August, uh, you know, in the ordinary course. Um, but we did talk about how...

Um, hi, month of the year. Um, but we did not give a number yet, but we'll be doing so, you know, later this month. Yeah, and the typical timing for that is what, maybe the fourth week of the month is typically when we would put that out. Yeah, something like that.

Got it. Great. Thank you, guys. That's all for me. I appreciate it.

Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. And gentlemen, that was our final question for today. This brings us to the conclusion of today's call. We thank you all for participating in the Ellington Financial second quarter 2025 earnings call. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Goodbye.