Q4 2025 Diageo PLC Earnings Call
Nik Jhangiani: I would like to start by thanking Debra Crew for her contributions to Diageo, including managing the challenging aftermath of the global pandemic and the ensuing geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility. I know I speak for everyone at the company in thanking her for her work over the last six years and wishing her the very best for the future. Now turning to fiscal 2025 results. Today, I will talk to some of the highlights of our fiscal 2025 reported performance. In addition, having shared our reshape priorities and areas of focus earlier this year, I would like to update you on our progress to date and how we are sharpening our strategy to drive accelerated growth in a potentially evolving TBA landscape.
I would like to start by thanking Debra Crew for her contributions to Diageo, including managing the challenging aftermath of the global pandemic and the ensuing geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility.
I know I speak for everyone at the company in thanking her for her work over the last 6 years and wishing her the very best for the future.
Now, turning to fiscal 2025 results. Today, I will talk to some of the highlights of our fiscal 2025 reported performance.
Nik Jhangiani: I will also provide an update on our accelerate program underpinning these priorities, which we announced with our Q3 trading statement and which is progressing with speed, creating a more agile, performance, and returns-focused organization. Our focus on cash continues, and we remain confident in delivering on our deleveraging commitment, strengthening our balance sheet, and increasing financial flexibility. I will also briefly talk to why we continue to believe in the attractive long-term fundamentals of the industry and our ability to outperform even in an evolving TBA landscape. I am joined today by Sonya Ghobrial, our Head of Investor Relations, who will walk through some of the fiscal 2025 results with me. Also, you will have seen last week that we announced that Deirdre Malin will be joining us as interim CFO. While she is not with us today, she will be on our next results call.
In addition to having shared our reshape priorities and areas of focus earlier this year, I'd like to update you on our progress to date and how we are sharpening our strategy to drive accelerated growth in a potentially evolving TBA landscape.
I will also provide an update on our Accelerate program underpinning. These priorities, which we announced with our Q3 trading statement, are progressing with speed, creating a more agile, performance- and returns-focused organization.
Our focus on cash continues, and we remain confident in delivering on our deleveraging commitment, strengthening our balance sheet, and increasing financial flexibility.
I will also briefly talk about why we continue to believe in the attractive long-term fundamentals of the industry and our ability to outperform, even in an evolving TBA landscape.
I'm joined today by Sonya Ghobrial and Gabriel, head of Investor Relations, who will walk through some of the fiscal 2025 results with me.
Nik Jhangiani: We are looking forward to welcoming her in a few weeks' time and to her partnering with me and the rest of the exec team as we stabilize the business and restore a profitable and sustainable growth mindset. Starting with the fiscal 2025 performance highlights. Against a challenging market backdrop, we delivered in line with our guidance. We delivered 1.7% organic sales growth, or 1.5% before the impact of the Xerox transaction in North America. Organic profit declined 0.7%, including the Xerox transaction impact, and declined 1% excluding this. Encouragingly, volume and price mix were both positive and relatively evenly split. There was positive organic sales growth in almost all regions, although operating profits were impacted adversely by investment in overheads, which we had already referenced at the half year.
Also, you will have seen last week that we announced that Drum Allen will be joining us as an interim from CSO. While she is not with us today, she will be on our next results call.
We are looking forward to welcoming her in a few weeks' time and to her partnering with me and the rest of the exec team as we stabilize the business and restore a profitable and sustainable growth mindset.
Starting with the fiscal 2025 performance highlights against a challenging market backdrop, we delivered in line with our guidance.
We delivered 1.7% organic sales growth, or 1.5% before the impact of the Sak transaction in North America.
Organic profit declined by 0.7%, including the Sak transaction impact, and declined by 1% excluding this.
Encouragingly, volume and price mix were both positive and relatively evenly split.
Nik Jhangiani: Importantly, this increase in overheads included some key investments, which will support our future growth agenda, which Sonya Ghobrial will come back on later. Free cash flow was $2.7 billion, up $100 million on last year, reflecting solid working capital management. EPS pre-exceptionals declined almost 9%, mainly due to a significantly lower contribution from Moët Hennessy and adverse effects. Finally, as you will have seen today, our recommended full-year dividend is flat on last year, which we think is prudent given the current backdrop. We remain committed to growing this sustainably over time. More details on the results shortly from Sonya Ghobrial. Shifting gears a little, you will recall that at the half year, we introduced our global reshape priorities to drive long-term sustainable growth. Since then, initiatives underpinning the four key strategic pillars are being embedded across our business.
There was positive organic sales growth in almost all regions; however, operating profits were adversely impacted by investments in overheads, which we had already referenced at the half year.
Importantly, this increase in overheads included some key investments, which will support our future growth. The agenda with Sonya will come back on later.
Free cash flow was $2.7 billion, up $100 million from last year, reflecting solid working capital management.
EPS precepts declined almost 9%, mainly due to a significantly lower contribution from more Tennessee and adverse effects.
Finally, as you will have seen today, our recommended full-year dividend is flat on last year, which we think is prudent given the current backdrop. We remain committed to growing this sustainably over time.
More details on the results. Shortly from Sonya.
So shifting gears a little, you will recall that at the half year, we introduced our global reshape priorities to drive long-term sustainable growth.
Nik Jhangiani: While there's further opportunity on all of them, I am pleased that we have moved with pace to make progress on some of the areas indicated. I will share more progress on some of them today, some coming through in our performance and also some underpinned by our accelerate program. In addition, in order to ensure Diageo is back on the front foot and focused on driving sustainable growth ahead of the market, we're working to sharpen our strategy with the intention to fully leverage our incredible portfolio and the competitive strengths of our business in significantly elevating areas where we can do much more in an evolving TBA landscape. One opportunity I've consistently highlighted at Diageo, given my experience and capabilities from previous roles, is the significant potential to step up our commercial execution.
Since then, initiatives underpinning the four key strategic pillars are being embedded across our business.
While there's further opportunity in all of them, I'm pleased that we have moved with pace to make progress on some of the areas indicated.
I will share more progress on some of them today, some coming through in our performance, and also some underpinned by our Accelerate program.
In addition, in order to ensure Diageo is back on the front foot and focused on driving sustainable growth ahead of the market, we're working to sharpen our strategy with the intention to fully leverage our incredible portfolio and the competitive strengths of our business, significantly elevating areas where we can do much more in an evolving TBA landscape.
Nik Jhangiani: True partnerships with customers are key to ensure that we are fully in sync and maximize our brand building. Ensuring that our physical availability in stores and bars matches up with the mental availability that our brand marketing has established with consumers is key. The three main work streams we're progressing on are firstly, trade investment optimization, something I will share more on as a part of accelerate. Secondly, work is underway to fully map and segment the outlet universe and to then overlay the occasions they serve and our portfolio offering as a result. This will enable accurate sizing of the value pools and growth opportunities, ultimately optimizing our resources. Thirdly, brilliant execution is key with a clear picture of success or PICOS, establishing a best-in-class standard for availability and activation at the point of purchase. More to come on this.
One opportunity I have consistently highlighted is the DIA. Given my experience and capabilities from previous roles, there is significant potential to step up our commercial execution.
True partnerships with customers are key to ensure that we are fully in sync and maximize our brand building.
Is key.
The three main work streams we are progressing on are, firstly, trade investment optimization. Something I will share more on as a part of Accelerate.
Secondly, work is underway to fully map and segment the outlet universe, and to then overlay the occasions they serve and our portfolio offering as a result.
This will enable accurate sizing of the value pools and growth opportunities, ultimately optimizing our resources.
Nik Jhangiani: As we shared in our release, the first phase of accelerate, our disciplined approach to operational excellence and cost efficiency has been implemented across the business and is progressing well. As a reminder, work in accelerate underpins these refocused priorities and some of the actions directly. I will walk through this in more detail, but would highlight that we've identified further cash savings compared to the $500 million communicated in May, with the commitment now to deliver $625 million of cash savings over the next three years. As we have consistently said, accelerate is not just about cutting costs, it's also about driving better growth. To this end, the work on our operating model is key. Underpinning our operating model changes is the intention to move Diageo to be more agile globally. This includes really leveraging scale and prioritizing where we invest.
Thirdly, brilliant execution is key with a clear picture of success. Picos are establishing a best-in-class standard for availability and activation at the point of purchase. More to come on this.
As we shared in our release, the first phase of accelerating our disciplined approach to operational excellence and cost efficiency has been implemented across the business and is progressing. Well,
As a reminder, work and accelerate underpins these refocused priorities, and some of the actions directly align with this. I will walk through this in more detail, but I would highlight that we've identified further cash savings compared to the $500 million communicated in May, with the commitment now to deliver $625 million of cash savings over the next 3 years.
As we have consistently said, Accelerate is not just about cutting costs; it's also about driving better growth. To this end, the work on our operating model is key.
Underpinning our operating model changes is the intention to move the AIO to be more agile globally.
Nik Jhangiani: It should also enable faster decision-making and is linked with our internal drive to embed a mindset of everyday productivity. Accelerate is also focused on implementing more simplified ways of working and accountabilities, and importantly, bringing clarity to the organization on roles and responsibilities, i.e., the right roles in the right places, whether at market, region, or global, and ensuring that we better leverage our centers of expertise and shared services. It will simplify how we work and build capabilities where we can be stronger than where we are today. Let me share two examples where we have seen some progress to date. In marketing, we have talked to changes in our operating model, with agile brand communities and conscious create teams set up across our global brands to standardize and centralize.
This includes really leveraging scale and prioritizing where we invest.
It should also enable faster decision-making and is linked with our internal drive to embed a mindset of everyday productivity.
Accelerators also focused on implementing more simplified ways of working and accountability, and importantly, bringing clarity to the organization on roles and responsibilities—putting the right roles in the right places, whether at the market region or global level—and ensuring that we better leverage our centers of expertise and shared services.
It will simplify how we work and build capabilities where we can be stronger than we are today.
Let me share two examples where we have seen some progress to date.
Nik Jhangiani: This work enabled the central and effective creation of the first scale smart off ice advertising campaign for over 20 markets, creating well over 500 different assets, covering different pack sizes, formats, flavors, languages, and regulations, and more than halving the time it would have taken previously. Importantly, the central production resulted in a circa 40% cost reduction in development costs on smart off globally. In Europe, our strategy has been refocused on the greatest growth opportunities. This resulted in more targeted investment and establishing more standalone market operations to bring us closer to the customers and consumers to drive improved performance with the right priorities locally. For example, in Southern Europe, historically, Iberia, France, and Italy were managed as one market despite very different consumer behaviors, categories, and occasions. Italy over-indexes in the aperitivo occasion.
In marketing, we have talked about changes in our operating model with agile brand communities and conscious creative teams set up across global brands to standardize and centralize.
This work enabled the central and effective creation of the first scale smart office advertising campaign for over 20 markets, creating well over 500 different assets covering different pack sizes, formats, flavors, languages, regulations, and more—half the time it would have taken previously.
Importantly, the central production resulted, in a circle, in a 40% cost reduction in development costs on smart globally.
In Europe, Australia has been refocused on the greatest growth opportunities. This resulted in more targeted investment and the establishment of more standalone market operations. Our aim is to bring us closer to customers and consumers to drive improved performance with the right priorities locally, for example, in Southern Europe. Historically, Iberia, France, and Italy were managed as one market, despite very different consumer behaviors, categories, and occasions.
Nik Jhangiani: France is the largest Scotch market in Europe, almost one and a half times larger than the next. Spain has a strong relaxed occasion focus. Now, having set up separate market teams, we can ensure we are really capitalizing on these distinct growth opportunities and be more locally consumer and customer-centric. We announced today increased cost savings of $625 million, relatively evenly spread over the next three years, from the $500 million previously, with around 50% dropping to operating profit and circa 50% reinvested for future growth. We will be investing in digital, where there is much more to do to leverage our data to drive clear, actionable insights and define more consistent metrics. This will support faster decision-making, investing to enhance capabilities, fully utilizing AI, and will enable us to truly leverage our scale.
Italy over-indexes in the apéro occasion. France is the largest Scotch market in Europe, almost 1.5 times larger than the next. And Spain has a strong, relaxed occasion focus.
Now, having set up separate market teams, we can ensure we are really capitalizing on these distinct growth opportunities and be more locally consumer and customer centric.
We announced today increased cost savings of $625 million, relatively evenly spread over the next 3 years, from the $500 million previously announced, with around 50% dropping to operating profit and circa 50% reinvested for future growth.
We will be investing in digital, where there's much more to do to leverage our data, to drive clear, actionable insights and define more consistent metrics.
Nik Jhangiani: Additionally, there is much more we can do to step up commercial execution, something I talked to just earlier. This includes strengthening capabilities in the market, building a stronger muscle in the on-trade in particular through best-in-class commercial execution at the point of sale in market where and when our consumers show up. I have talked before to the sources of savings on this chart: A&P effectiveness, trade spend optimization, overheads, and supply agility. A&P savings will come through earlier, as you have already started to see in fiscal 2025. Trade spend optimization and overheads will take more time to come through, so we will be more back-end loaded. Supply chain savings are likely to be evenly spread over the next three years. On A&P, we have outlined over the last month that there is much more we can do to optimize the spend to be more effective and efficient.
This will support faster decision-making, investing to enhance capabilities, fully utilizing AI, and will enable us to truly leverage our scale.
Additionally, there's much more we can do to step up commercial execution—something I talked about just earlier.
This includes strengthening capabilities in market building—a stronger muscle. In the on-trade, in particular, through best-in-class commercial execution at the point of sale in the market, where and when our consumers show up.
The charts A and B illustrate the effectiveness of trade, spend optimization, overheads, and supply agility.
Amp savings will come through early, as you've already started to see in fiscal 2025.
Nik Jhangiani: At CAGMI, we shared our intention to reduce our non-working or development costs to around 10% of A&P spend, and we made good progress in fiscal 2025 with this now around 15% of our spend, down from 21% in fiscal 2024. While the percentage of spend is important, I am also focusing the teams on the absolute dollar amounts and the quality of the spend and what happens centrally versus in market. As I said earlier, we are leveraging our organizational changes with conscious create and agile brand communities, increasing earlier co-collaboration and reducing in-market agency fees and development costs as a result. There is also significant opportunities for us to fully utilize AI creativity with our virtual content studios. Introduced in fiscal 2025, we are scaling this in-house content creation across our markets and brands in fiscal 2026.
Trade spend optimization and overheads will take more time to come through, so we'll be more back-end loaded in the supply chain. Savings are likely to be evenly spread over the next three years. On AMP, we have outlined over the last months that there's much more we can do to optimize the spend to be more effective and efficient.
At KAG, we shared our intention to reduce our non-working or development costs to around 10% of A&P spend. We made good progress in fiscal 2025, with this now being around 15% of our spend, down from 21% in fiscal 2024.
While the percentage of spend is important, I'm also focusing the teams on the absolute dollar amounts and the quality of the spend, as well as what happens centrally versus in market.
As I said earlier, we're leveraging our organizational changes with conscious creation and agile brand communities, increasing earlier collaboration and reducing in-market agency fees and development costs as a result.
There's also significant opportunities for us to fully utilize AI creativity with our virtual content studios.
Nik Jhangiani: In fiscal 2025, these tools enabled us to activate our Guinness Premier League partnership at scale quickly. As you see in the Asia-Pacific examples on the slide, we were able to adapt materials for local cultural nuances easily and at speed. As I have said, there is much more that we can do here. Connected to our A&P spend is also the work being done on trade spend optimization. Addressable trade spend is significant at circa $3 billion globally. By adding more rigor and consistency into evaluating the effectiveness of this, we expect to be able to make better investment decisions with improved payback. We are leveraging and consolidating learnings from the initial work in Australia and GB as we take this into the other markets at pace.
Introduced in Fiscal 2025, we are scaling this in-house content creation across our markets and brands in Fiscal 2026.
In fiscal 2025, these tools enabled us to activate our Genius Premier League partnership at scale quickly. And as you see in the Asia-Pacific examples on the slide, we were able to adapt materials for local cultural nuances easily and at speed.
As I've said, there's much more that we can do here. Connected to our EMP, spend is also the work being done on trade. Spend optimization of addressable trade spend is significant at circa $3 billion globally, and by adding more rigor and consistency into evaluating the effectiveness of this, we expect to be able to make better investment decisions with improved payback.
Nik Jhangiani: For example, in GB, the improved visibility we now have of the ROI of promotional events in the grocery channel is enabling us to make better investment decisions. We also continue to look at our overheads with work underway to benchmark against relevant peers to ensure the business is best positioned for the future. While this includes headcount, and we did do some streamlining in Q4 to set us up for fiscal 2026, we are also focused on ensuring our capabilities are maximized to leverage digital technology and AI where applicable. In supply, our work to optimize our supply chain continues. Whilst much has been done, there is still more to do. This includes ensuring our systems, our processes, and our KPIs are standardized, ensuring our footprint is appropriately based for consumers and markets, and again, prioritizing growth.
We are leveraging and consolidating learning from the initial work in Australia and GB. As we take this into the other markets at PACE.
For example, in GB, the improved visibility we now have of the ROI of promotional events in the grocery channel is enabling us to make better investment decisions.
We also continue to look at our overheads, with work underway to benchmark against relevant peers, to ensure the business is best positioned for the future.
While this includes headcount, and we did do some streamlining in Q4 to set us up for fiscal 2026, we are also focused on ensuring our capabilities are maximized to leverage digital technology and AI where applicable.
In Supply, our work to optimize our supply chain continues. And while much has been done, there's still more to do. This includes insurance, our systems, our processes, and our KPIs. We are standardizing to ensure our footprint is appropriately based for consumers and markets, and again, prioritizing growth.
Nik Jhangiani: We are committed to delivering circa $3 billion of free cash flow per annum from fiscal 2026. This is underpinned by a renewed focus on cash across the full organization. Given guidance for fiscal 2026, we expect this to be supported by mid-single-digit organic operating profit growth, as well as reduced CapEx. CapEx is reducing from the more recent elevated levels and is expected to be mid-single digits as a percentage of net sales in three years without compromising long-term sustainable growth. We also have the opportunity to improve our working capital, something we want to do in a sustainable way, primarily through increased discipline on receivables and stock.
We are committed to delivering circa $3 billion of free cash flow for Anam from fiscal 2026. This is underpinned by a renewed focus on cash across the full organization.
Given guidance for fiscal 2026, we expect this to be supported by mid single-digit organic operating profit growth, as well as reduced capex.
CapEx is reducing from the more recent elevated levels and is expected to be in the mid-single digits as a percentage of net sales in three years, without compromising long-term sustainable growth.
Nik Jhangiani: With maturing stock, we are leveraging our proprietary Scotch intelligence platform, building on hundreds of years of experience in Scotch to better forecast and plan along with demand planning, all driving more effective management of our Scotch maturing stock without compromising our liquid gold. I have mentioned before our decision to make appropriate and selective disposals. The intention to do this and the timing of the coming years is unchanged, and we remain committed to actively pursuing disposals of appropriate non-core assets. Before we share more details on fiscal 2025, I want to take a moment to run through some thoughts on the current macroeconomic environment and the spirits sector more generally. We continue to believe that spirits remains an attractive sector longer term, and this is supported by favorable fundamentals, namely demographics, growing middle class, growth of LPA plus consumers, and increasing female per capita consumption.
We also have the opportunity to improve our working capital, which is something we want to do in a sustainable way, primarily through increased discipline on receivables and stock.
With maturing stock, we're leveraging our proprietary Scotch intelligence platform, building on hundreds of years of experience in Scotch to better forecast and plan, along with demand planning.
All driving is more effective management of our Scotch maturing stock without compromising our Liquid Gold.
I have mentioned before our decision to make appropriate and selective disposals. The intention to do this and the timing in the coming years is unchanged, and we remain committed to actively pursuing disposals of appropriate, non-porous assets.
Before we share more details on fiscal 2025, I want to take a moment to run through some thoughts on the current macroeconomic environment and the spirits sector more generally.
Nik Jhangiani: Over the last 10 years, TBA has softened, albeit gradually, with moderation clearly playing a role. Moderation is something we continue to expect going forward, and we are now more focused on how we leverage the opportunity that this brings. Coming back to spirits, per capita consumption was relatively flat over the last 10 years as a gain share from beer and wine, another trend we remain positive on given the versatility of spirits. Finally, importantly, in our largest market, the U.S., consumer spend value on TBA has remained constant. Also, we believe the versatility of spirits positions the category well for the future across occasions, premiumization, and the evolution of consumer trends, including moderation and sourcing growth from other drinking occasions. We continue to view the near-term pressure on the sector as largely cyclical and driven by the macroeconomic environment. Consumer sentiment, though, does remain subdued.
This is supported by favorable fundamentals, namely demographics, a growing middle class, the growth of LPA plus consumers, and increasing female per capita consumption.
Over the last 10 years, TBA has softened, albeit gradually, with moderation clearly playing a role.
Moderation is something we continue to expect going forward, and we are now more focused on how we leverage the opportunity that this brings.
Regarding spirits per capita, consumption has been relatively flat over the last 10 years, as it gained share from beer and wine. Another trend we remain positive on, given the versatility of spirits.
Finally, importantly, in our largest market, the U.S. consumer spend value on TBA has remained constant.
Also, we believe the versatility of spirits positions the category well for the future across occasions, premiumization, and the evolution of consumer trends, including moderation and sourcing growth from other drinking occasions.
Nik Jhangiani: A grocery basket continues to deliver less at a higher cost, and around 25% of consumers in our recent key market study showed that saving money was one of the top four reasons in their choice to moderate their TBA consumption. The role of saving money in moderation was even higher with Gen Z consumers we surveyed. Naturally, we continue to track and monitor data for any changes in behaviors. We continue to prioritize consumer insights and tracking. Consistent with comments to date, Gen Z household penetration of spirits was up six percentage points to 55% in 2024 versus 2020. We believe spirits RTDs have played a large role in this as LPA plus Gen Z increasingly enter TBA in this category versus historically coming in through beer.
We continue to view the near-term pressure on the sector as largely cyclical and driven by the macroeconomic environment. Consumer sentiment, though, does remain subdued. A grocery basket continues to deliver less at a higher cost, and around 25% of consumers in our recent key market studies showed that saving money was one of the top four reasons in their choice to moderate their TB.
A consumption.
The role of saving money in moderation was even higher with Gen Z consumers. We surveyed.
Naturally, we continue to track and monitor data for any changes in behaviors.
We continue to prioritize consumer insights and tracking consistent with comments. To date, Jensy household penetration of spirits was up 6 percentage points to 55% in 2024 versus 2020.
We believe Spirits RTDs have played a large role in this, as LPA plus Gen Z increasingly enter TBA in this category versus historically coming in through beer.
Nik Jhangiani: As I will talk to later, we have introduced a more deliberate strategy for selected RTD markets, which is showing some early positive results. We are also keeping a close eye on the impact of cannabis, including THC drinks and GLP-1s. Recent consumer research from the team in the U.S. reinforces our view that to date, the impact of both has not been significant. As mentioned in the release, we are sharpening our strategy. While we view the sector near-term pressures as largely macro-driven and cyclical, there isn't enough data to definitively say that they won't impact the medium term, nor that TBA environment won't evolve. This includes the role of moderation, which has been around for some time. While currently, it is clearly being supported by pressure on wallets, it is a theme which we expect to remain.
As I will talk to you later, we have introduced a more deliberate strategy for selected RTD markets, which is showing some early positive results.
We are also keeping a close eye on the impact of cannabis, including THC, drinks, and GLP-1s.
Recent consumer research from the team in the U.S. reinforces our view that to date, the impact of both has not been significant.
As mentioned in the release, we are sharpening our strategy.
Whilst we view the factor near-term pressures as largely macro-driven and cyclical, there isn't enough data to definitively say that they won't impact the medium-term, nor that the TBA environment won't evolve.
This includes the role of moderation, which has been around for some time.
Nik Jhangiani: Interestingly, consumers who are moderating are not socializing any less across a broad range of occasions, so we are working to ensure that we best leverage the opportunity this brings. We are also moving to address areas that even in a continued or evolving consumer backdrop will drive growth, leveraging the strength of our brand portfolio, our scale, and our marketing and our distribution. I look forward to coming back on this in the coming months. With that, let me take you through more detail on our fiscal 25 performance. I've already talked to the key metrics, so I will take you through some of the highlights across our regions and brands before Sonya Ghobrial shares the financial detail.
Whilst currently it is clearly being supported by pressure on wallets, it is a theme which we expect to remain.
Interestingly, consumers who are moderating are not socializing any less across a broad range of occasions. So, we are working to ensure that we best leverage the opportunity. This brings.
To address areas that, even in a continued or evolving consumer backdrop, will drive growth by leveraging the strengths of our brand portfolio, our scale, and our marketing.
Distribution. And I look forward to coming back on this in the coming months.
With that, let me take you through more detail on our fiscal Q4 2025 performance. I've already talked about the key metrics, so I will take you through some of the highlights across our regions and brands before Sonya shares the financial details.
Nik Jhangiani: Trading conditions remain challenging through fiscal 2025 for TBA, and particularly for spirits, reflecting macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, as well as weak consumer confidence in many of our key markets, including the U.S. and China. Our broad and diverse portfolio across regions and markets enabled us to capture growth opportunities in selective parts of the globe. This, combined with a focus on what we could manage and control and executing at pace, enabled us to hold or grow market share in 65% of our total net sales in measured markets, including the U.S. As a reminder, this was in line with what we reported at the half year. Beyond the U.S., which I will talk to shortly, a few highlights across the regions. In India, we continued recruitment and premiumization of consumers with growth driven by prestige and above whiskey, including smaller pack sizes.
Trading conditions remain challenging through fiscal 2025 for TDA and particularly for Spirits, reflecting macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, as well as weak consumer confidence in many of our key markets, including the U.S. and China.
A broad and diverse portfolio across regions and markets enabled us to capture growth opportunities in selective parts of the globe.
This, combined with the focus on what we could manage and control, and executing at PACE, enabled us to hold or grow market share in 65% of our total net sales in measured markets, including the U.S.
As a reminder, this was in line with what we reported at the half-year.
Nik Jhangiani: The U.K.-India free trade agreement will support future growth potential for whiskey in the years to come. In Europe, our MENA business, which was established at the end of fiscal 2024, is showing exciting progress in both luxury and non-alc, albeit currently from a small base. In GB, both Casamigos and Don Julio are growing double digit alongside continued momentum on Guinness. As I talked to earlier, we also refocused our strategy to focus on higher growth opportunities. In LAC, Brazil benefited from a more stable environment through premiumization and targeted investment to drive growth opportunities in markets such as Mexico. In Africa, we saw organic net sales growth across all markets led by Ghana. In North America, sustained pressure on consumer wallets continued to weigh on spending. Despite this environment, we delivered positive organic net sales growth. We also gained TBA share driven by focused execution and portfolio prioritization.
Beyond the U.S., which I will talk about shortly. A few highlights of the regions in India: we continued recruitment and premiumization of consumers, with growth driven by Prestige and above whiskey, including smaller pack sizes.
The Free Trade Agreement will support future growth potential for whiskey in the years to come.
In Europe, Amina business, which was established at the end of fiscal 2024, is showing exciting progress in both luxury and non-alcoholic, albeit currently from a small base.
Energy B, both Custom Migos and Don Julio are growing double digits alongside continued momentum on Guinness.
Also, as I talked about earlier, we're also refocusing our strategy to focus on higher growth opportunities.
In LAC, Brazil benefited from a more stable environment through criminalization and targeted investment to drive growth opportunities in markets such as Mexico.
And in Africa, we saw organic net sales growth across all markets, led by Ghana.
In North America, sustained pressure on consumer wallets continues to weigh on spending.
Nik Jhangiani: U.S. spirits net sales grew 1.6% organically with a positive price mix of 2.9%. Don Julio, led by Reposado, and Crown Royal, led by Blackberry, continued their strong momentum, including distribution and household penetration gains. Diageo outperformed within smaller formats in fiscal 2025, gaining share, a direct result of focused investment to address consumer demand for our premium brands in tequila and scotch at an accessible and affordable price point. As we shared in Dublin in May, Guinness is building great momentum in the U.S. and delivered double-digit organic net sales growth despite a challenging beer market. We also continue to optimize our supply chain and announced a new manufacturing and warehousing facility in Montgomery, Alabama, earlier this year. By moving production closer to customers, we will enable a more efficient and sustainable supply chain.
Despite this environment, we delivered positive organic net sales growth. We also gained TDA share driven by focused execution and portfolio prioritization. U.S. Spirits net sales grew 1.6% organically, with a positive price mix of 2.9%.
Don Julio, led by Reposado, and Crown Royal, led by Blackberry, continued their strong momentum, including distribution and household penetration gains.
Dia outperformed within smaller formats in fiscal 2025, gaining share as a direct result of focused investment to address consumer demand for our premium brands in tequila and Scotch at an accessible and affordable price point.
As we shared in Dublin and Guinness's, we are building great momentum in the U.S. and delivered double-digit organic net sales growth despite a challenging beer market.
We also continue to optimize our supply chain and announced a new manufacturing and warehousing facility in Montgomery, Alabama. Earlier this year,
Nik Jhangiani: This is part of our journey to bring more agility and resilience into our North American supply chain. Our investment in U.S. spirits route to market is off to a good start with our Academy of Beverage Leadership Training rolling out at pace. This program is building long-term capabilities and strengthening partnerships with retailers by bringing deep category knowledge and is a great example of progress we are making, strengthening our commercial execution capabilities. Targeted accounts are benefiting from focused commercial execution and are performing ahead of benchmarks, with about 85% of our customers surveyed recognizing the benefits of this new approach. We are seeing the greatest impact in the on-trade, particularly with menu placements of Diageo brands in cocktails. On Casamigos, Sally shared at CAGMI our strategy to improve brand performance, which included a new campaign and launching the Casamigos Margarita RTD in fiscal 2025.
By moving production closer to customers, we will enable a more efficient and sustainable supply chain. This is part of our journey to bring more agility and resilience into our North American supply chain.
Our investment in the U.S. Spirits route to market is off to a good start, with our Academy of Beverage leadership training rolling out at pace.
This program is building long-term capabilities and strengthening partnerships with retailers by bringing deep category knowledge. It is a great example of the progress we're making in strengthening our commercial execution capabilities. Targeted accounts are benefiting from focused commercial execution and are performing ahead of benchmarks, with about 85% of our customers.
Surveyed, recognizing the benefits of this new approach.
Nik Jhangiani: Although early days, we are encouraged by the take-up and feedback from both retailers and consumers to date and will be leveraging the brand's role in the FIFA World Cup partnership in the coming year. While we are pleased with our F25 performance in the U.S., we are clear we need to focus on driving more balanced growth in the coming years, given the ongoing economic pressure on the U.S. consumer and that we are lapping a period of strong shared growth. As such, we have planned for a more cautious consumer environment in this coming year. I have consistently said how impressed I am by the strength of our brand building, and I would like to talk to three of our largest global brands and the progress made this year: Don Julio, Johnnie Walker, and Guinness.
We're seeing the greatest impact in the entree, particularly with menu placements of Diageo brands, in cocktails on Casamigos. Sally shared at the Kagna strategy to improve brand performance, which included a new campaign and launching the Casamigos Margarita RTD in fiscal 25.
Although it's early days, we are encouraged by the take-up and feedback from both retailers and consumers to date and will be leveraging the Brand's role in the FIFA World Cup partnership in the coming year.
While we're pleased with IF25 performance in the U.S., we are clear: we need to focus on driving more balanced growth in the coming years, given the ongoing economic pressure on the U.S. consumer and that we are lapping a period of strong share growth. As such, we have planned for a more cautious consumer environment in this coming year.
I have consistently said how impressed I am with the strength of our brand building, and I would like to talk to three of our largest global brands and the progress made this year.
Nik Jhangiani: Both Don Julio and Guinness delivered double-digit organic growth across our regions, with both brands gaining share. Johnnie Walker, whilst it gained share of international whiskey and scotch and recruited consumers, saw an organic net sales decline largely driven by the U.S., Asia-Pacific travel retail, and greater China. As a reminder, in times when the consumer wallet is under pressure, typically scotch is one of the more adversely impacted categories. In fiscal 2026, we are focused on accelerating Johnnie Walker recruitment through both premiumization and scaling a winning innovation across the price ladder, as well as broadening reach to access a range of consumer occasions. All three of these brands I just mentioned successfully recruited a broader set of consumers through both innovation and participating in culture at scale.
Don Julio, Johnnie Walker, and Guinness.
Both Don Julian and Guinness delivered double-digit organic growth across our regions, with both brands gaining share.
Johnny Walker, whilst it gained share of international whiskey and scotch and recruited consumers, faced an organic net sales decline, largely driven by the US, Asia-Pacific, Travel Retail, and Greater China.
As a reminder, in times when the consumer wallet is under pressure, typically, Scotch is one of the more adversely impacted categories.
In fiscal 2026, we are focused on accelerating Johnnie Walker recruitment through both premiumization and scaling winning innovation across the price ladder, as well as broadening reach to access a range of consumer occasions.
Nik Jhangiani: For example, in tequila, Don Julio 1942 saw a special edition developed with the global influencer Peggy Goo, available for scale in nearly 30 markets, driving incredible social media engagement and brand interest. A mini format also provided a more accessible price point, building on our strong performance in smaller sizes of tequila. Innovation across the Johnnie Walker price ladder also enabled new consumer recruitment and enhanced brand equity. This included Johnnie Walker Vault, a luxury experience showcasing the art of blending through made-to-measure blends. At the other end of the ladder, Johnnie Walker Blonde is recruiting younger LPA plus and female consumers from occasions where beer is strong and is now available in 16 markets. Finally, Johnnie Walker Black Ruby, while still early in its launch, offers a premium, accessible, and sweeter whiskey, perfect for cocktails. On Guinness, the amazing momentum continues on Guinness 0.0.
All three of these brands I just mentioned successfully recruited a broader set of consumers through both innovation and participating in culture at scale.
1942. A special edition developed with global influencer Peggy Gou is available for sale in nearly 30 markets, driving incredible social media engagement and brand interest.
A mini format also provided a more accessible price point building on our strong performance in smaller sizes of tequila.
Innovation across the Johnnie Walker price ladder also enabled new consumer recruitment and enhanced brand equity.
This included Johnny Walker Vault, a luxury experience showcasing the art of blending through made-to-measure blends. At the other end of the ladder, Johnny Walker Blonde is recruiting younger LPA plus and female consumers from occasions where their strong appeal is present and is now available in 16th.
Finally, Johnny Walker Black Ruby, while still early in its launch, offers a premium, accessible, and sweeter whiskey, perfect for cocktails.
Nik Jhangiani: We are expanding into more markets as more capacity comes on stream, given the exciting runway for growth we talked to at length in Dublin. Both Don Julio and Guinness are great examples of successful brand building and recruitment, driving out performance with focus and investment, and I am convinced we can do more with our other brands. Recognizing consumer choice, we are making progress addressing the continuing trend and growth opportunity of moderation by ensuring that we provide a range of choices to consumers. In fiscal 2025, we saw significant growth in our offerings here. We are the number one non-alc spirits brand owner globally, over four times the size of the nearest number two. Our broad portfolio offers a great range of quality non-alc alternatives across occasions and markets.
And on Guinness, the amazing momentum continues on Guinness 0.0.
We are expanding into more markets as more capacity comes on stream, given the exciting runway for growth. We talked at length in Dublin.
Both Don Julio and Guinness are great examples of successful brand building in recruitment, driving out performance with focus and investment. And I'm convinced we can do more with our other brands.
Recognizing consumer choice, we are making progress addressing the continuing trend and growth opportunity of moderation by ensuring that we provide a range of choices to consumers.
In fiscal 2025, we saw significant growth in our offerings. Here we are: the number one non-alcoholic spirits brand owner globally, over four times the size of the nearest number two.
Nik Jhangiani: This year, we also added to this with the purchase of Ritual Zero Proof, the number one non-alc spirits brand in the U.S. Guinness 0.0 is an important part of our non-alc portfolio, which overall delivered around 40% growth for the year. We are focused on being consumer and occasion-led as we think about our portfolio and format offering. Many of those occasions are increasingly in non-traditional locations, such as sports games, festivals, or concerts, where RTDs, for instance, provide a convenient serve format in pre-measured serve and often at a lower ABV. While Diageo's strategy with RTDs has been less consistent over recent years, in fiscal 2025, we proactively changed this approach to be more focused and targeted on growth markets and brands.
Our broad portfolio offers a great range of quality non-alcohol alternatives across occasions and markets. This year, we also added to this with the purchase of Ritual Zero Proof, the number 1 non-alcohol spirits brand in the U.S.
Guinness 0000 is an important part of our non-alcohol portfolio, which overall delivered around 40% growth for the year.
We are focused on being consumer-led and occasional LED as we think about our portfolio and format offering.
Many of those occasions are increasingly in non-traditional locations.
Such as sports games, festivals, or concerts where RTDs, for instance, provide a convenient survey format in pre-measured serve and often at a lower ABV.
Nik Jhangiani: We see this as a key recruitment channel for LPA plus consumers going forward and a real opportunity where we can leverage the strength of our brands. Within this segment, we saw 2% organic net sales growth, and we can do much more. We are moving at pace and with a cross-functional team to improve commercial execution and visibility and to innovate on liquid and across packed formats with a more FMCG mindset. We also launched the first global advertising campaign on Guinness 0.0 that I talked to earlier, marking its 25th year anniversary. There is a huge opportunity for us to accelerate performance across both our non-alc offers and RTDs, as well as lower ABV products. Looking ahead and at our broader portfolio and brands, there is much more work to do, and we are focused on improving sustainable performance.
While the Azure strategy RTDS has been less consistent over recent years, in fiscal 2025, we proactively changed the approach to be more focused and targeted on growth markets and brands.
We see this as a pre-recruitment channel for LPA plus consumers going forward and a real opportunity where we can leverage the strengths of our brands.
Within this segment, we saw 2% organic net sales growth, and we can do much more.
We are moving at pace and with a cross-functional team to improve commercial execution and visibility, and to innovate on liquid and across packed formats with a more FMCG mindset.
We also launched the first global advertising campaign on ice that I talked about earlier, marking its 25th year anniversary.
There's a huge opportunity for us to accelerate performance across both our non-alcohol offers and RTDs, as well as lower ABD products.
Nik Jhangiani: We will update you on our actions as we move through the year. Now over to Sonya.
Looking ahead at our broader portfolio and brands, there's much more work to do, and we're focused on improving sustainable performance.
Sonya Ghobrial: Thanks, Nik. Let me start by taking you through the movement in net sales for the year. Reported net sales were broadly flat at $20.2 billion, with positive organic growth offset by the net impact of acquisitions and disposals, as well as unfavorable foreign exchange. The negative impact from acquisitions and disposals was largely driven by the Guinness Nigeria disposal, as well as a Sir Rob transaction in North America. Adverse foreign exchange was mainly driven by the Turkish Lira, Brazilian Real, and other emerging market currencies, with the latter only partly offset by gains from the CD in Ghana and the British Pound. As Nik shared earlier, organic net sales grew 1.7%, including the benefit from the closure of the Sir Rob transaction in North America.
We will update you on our actions as we move through the year. Now, over to Sonya.
Thanks, Nick. Let me start by taking you through the movement in net.
For the year.
The positive organic growth was offset by the net impact of acquisitions and disposals, as well as unfavorable foreign exchange.
The next positions and disposals were largely driven by the Guinness Nigeria disposal, as well as the transaction in North America.
Adverse foreign exchange was mainly driven by the Turkish lira, Brazilian real, and other emerging market currencies, which was only partly offset by gains from the CD in Ghana and the British pound.
Sonya Ghobrial: Adjusting to remove this impact, organic net sales would have been up 1.5%, consistent with guidance for a sequential improvement in the second half on what we'd reported for the first half of the year. The contribution to growth in volume and price mix was relatively balanced. Three of our five regions delivered volume growth, and consistent with the first half, four of our five regions delivered positive price mix. Volume was down in North America and Europe, given a continued cautious consumer environment and also ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and inflationary pressure. However, this was more than offset by positive volume growth in Asia-Pacific, particularly in India, as well as volume growth in both Africa and LAC. Moving to price mix, in North America, a positive price mix was driven by tequila, with consumers increasingly moving to aged liquids and in particular strength in Don Julio.
If next year earlier organic net sales grew 1.7%, including the benefits from the closure of the Coro transaction in North America, adjusting to remove the FM impact, organic net sales would have been up 1.5%, consistent with guidance for our sequential improvement in the second half on what we reported for the first half of the year.
Volume and price mix were relatively balanced. Three of our five regions delivered volume growth, and consistent with the fourth tab, four of our five regions delivered positive price mix.
Volume was down in North America and Europe, given a continued cautious consumer environment, as well as ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and inflationary pressure. However, this is more than offset by positive volume growth in Asia-Pacific, particularly in India, as well as volume growth in both Africa and Latin America.
Sonya Ghobrial: In Europe, Guinness was again the main driver of growth. We saw continued positive price mix from LAC as the region recovered from a period of consumer down trading and a highly competitive environment, as well as some benefit from lapping favorable comparatives. In Asia-Pacific, price mix declined, driven by consumer down trading in Southeast Asia and China, combined with unfavorable market mix. Turning to the movement in operating profit for the year, gross profit increased $224 million, driven by top-line performance, with gross margin up slightly and up by nine basis points, benefiting from supply efficiency initiatives and lower cost inflation. Reported operating profit was down 4.1% due to unfavorable foreign exchange, mainly driven by the Mexican Peso. Coming back to operating profit, this declined 0.7% organically in the year.
Moving to price mixed in North America. Positive price. The mix was driven by tequila, with consumers increasingly moving to aged liquids and, in particular, higher strength options in Don Julio. In Europe, Guinness was again the main driver of growth.
We saw continued posted price growth as a region recovered from a period of consumer down trading and a highly competitive environment, as well as some benefit from lapping favorable comparatives.
In Asia, Pacific prices have declined, driven by consumer down-trading and size these days in China, combined with an unfavorable market mix.
Turning to the movement in operating profit for the year.
Gross profit increased by $224 million, driven by topline performance, with growth margin up slightly—up by 9 basis points—benefiting from supply efficiency initiatives and lower cost inflation.
Reported operating profit was down 4.1% due to unfavorable foreign exchange, mainly driven by the Mexican peso.
Sonya Ghobrial: As with net sales, there was a benefit from the closure of the Sir Rob transaction in North America, and adjusting to remove this, organic operating profit would have been down 1%. This was also consistent with our earlier guidance for a similar decline in operating profit organically in both the first and second half of the year. The year-on-year decline in operating profit was primarily due to increased overhead, comprising staff costs, including incentives and wage cost inflation, as well as strategic investment in areas including route to market in the U.S. The sustained pressure on margin in the second half was something which we highlighted in the interim results in February, which continued into the second half of the year. As was the case in the first half, excluding the impact of reinstating incentives, organic operating profit would have been up slightly, reflecting improved performance on last year.
Coming back to operating profit, this declined 7% organically in the year, as with net sales. There was a benefit from the closure of the syrup transaction in North America, and adjusting to remove this organic operating profit would have been down 1%. This was also consistent with our earlier guidance for a similar decline in operating profit organically in both the first and second half of the year.
The year-on-year decline in operating profit was primarily due to increased overhead, comprising staff costs, including incentives and wage costs inflation, as well as strategic investments in areas including route to market in the U.S.
The sustained pressure and margin in the second half was something we highlighted at the interim results in February, which continued into the second half of the year.
Sonya Ghobrial: Going forward, we'd expect to more than offset any increases in staff costs through positive operating leverage. A&P investment was broadly flat as we strategically reshaped our A&P spend across regions and delivered some efficiencies. As we said at the interim result, we've been prioritizing spend on higher growth opportunities and reducing non-working or development costs, as Nik Jhangiani talked to earlier. Onto cash, year-on-year, free cash flow improved by $139 million to $2.7 billion, largely driven by working capital improvement. This was partly offset by lower year-on-year EBITDA post-exceptionals, given both higher exceptionals and also unfavorable foreign exchange. Solid working capital performance was driven by favorable creditor movement and lower year-on-year investment in maturing stock. Additionally, given the lower dividends from our non-controlling stake in Moët Hennessy, this was also lower than other compared with last year.
As was the case in the first half, excluding the impact of reinstating incentives, organic operating profit would have been up slightly, reflecting improved performance on last year.
Going forward, we'd expect two more than offset any increases in staff costs through positive operating leverage.
A&P investment was broadly flat as we strategically adjusted our A&P spends across regions and delivered some efficiencies.
As we said at the interim results, we've been prioritizing spend on higher growth opportunities and reducing non-working or development costs, as Nick talked to earlier.
On to cash year on year, cash flow improved by $139 million to $2.7 billion, largely driven by working capital improvement.
This is partly offset by lower year-on-year EBITDA post exceptionals, given both higher exceptionals and also unfavorable foreign exchange.
Dollars working capital performance was driven by favorable creditor movement and lower year-on-year investment in maturing stock.
Sonya Ghobrial: CapEx was around $1.5 billion, a small increase on last year and elevated compared with the guidance for this spend over the next three years. There was continued investment in projects to support production capacity expansion in prioritized categories, including Guinness and also in the U.S. supply chain. We've guided for a reduced CapEx spend over the next three years, trending to mid-single digit as a percentage of net sales, as Nik Jhangiani spoke to earlier. EPS per exceptional declined 8.6% on last year, and this was largely driven by lower earnings from our non-controlling stake in Moyet Hennessy, as well as unfavorable foreign exchange. The impact for a lower tax charge also benefited EPS. Let me just spend a moment talking through exceptionals, as you'll have seen that this year these were significant at $1.4 billion.
Additionally, given the lower dividends from our non-controlling stake in Millie Hennessy, this was also lower compared with last year.
Capex was around $1.5 billion, a small increase from last year and elevated compared with the guidance for this spend over the next three years.
There was continued investment in projects to support production capacity expansion in prioritized categories, including Guinness, and also in the U.S. supply chain.
We've guided for a reduced capex spend over the next 3 years, trending to mid-single digits as a percentage of net sales, as Nick spoke to earlier.
EPSP exceptionals declined by 8.6% compared to last year, largely driven by lower earnings from our non-controlling stake in Mehenry, as well as unfavorable foreign exchange.
The impact of the lower tax charge also benefited VPS.
Sonya Ghobrial: It's important to understand the components of this charge, as these are quite different and also explain its magnitude. Firstly, there was a charge of around $450 million relating to the Phil Venture, which was the direct result of a strategic decision to move forward with a reduced number of investments and to no longer bring in new brands. Also, there was around a $230 million impairment charge for Aviation Gin, given the challenging macroeconomic environment and the softening of the overall gin category. We're focused on reinvigorating the Aviation brand and strengthening it for the future. Secondly, there was a $230 million charge for restructuring investment in costs relating to the supply chain agility program and accelerate. Finally, there was around a $150 million charge for the changes in the distribution model in France. The remaining balance comprises smaller charges for mostly U.S.
Let me just spend a moment talking to exceptionals, as you have seen that this year, these were significant at $1.4 billion.
It's important to understand what the components of this charge are; these are quite different and all contribute to explaining its magnitude.
Firstly, there was a charge of around $450 million related to the sale of Venture, which was the direct result of a strategic decision to move forward with a reduced number of investments and to no longer bring in new brands.
Also, there was around a $230 million payment charge for Aviation Gin given the challenging macroeconomic environment and the softening of the overall gin category.
We're focused on the invigorating The Innovation brand and strengthening it for the future.
Secondly, there was a $230 million charge for restructuring investment costs related to the supply chain agility program. Finally, there is around a $150 million charge due to changes in the distribution model in France.
Sonya Ghobrial: brand impairments, and you can find a detailed slide in the appendix. Moving to the balance sheet, we finished the year with closing net debt of $21.9 billion, which was $0.8 billion higher than at the start of the year due to unfavorable foreign exchange movements in both sterling and euro debt. Given a lower EBITDA year-on-year and unfavorable foreign exchange, our leverage ratio increased to 3.4 times net debt adjusted EBITDA, ahead of where we ended in the prior fiscal year. This is above our target range of 2.5 to 3 times; however, it was consistent with the guidance that we shared during the year. As Nik Jhangiani said, as part of accelerate, we've been cleared on our commitment to bring leverage down, guiding for this to be well within our target leverage range, no later than fiscal 2028. With that, I'd like to hand back to Nik Jhangiani.
Provides a smaller charge for mostly U.S. brand impairments. You can find a detailed slide in the appendix.
Moving to the balance sheet, we finished the year with closing net debt of $21.9 billion, which was $0.8 billion higher than at the start of the year due to unfavorable foreign exchange movements in both Sterling and Euro debt.
Given a lower EBIT side year-on-year and unfavorable foreign exchange, our leverage ratio increased to 3.4 times net debt, adjusted debt ahead of where we ended in the process of the school year.
This is above our target range of 2.5 to 3 times. However, it was consistent with the guidance that we shared during the year.
As Nick said, as part of Accelerate, we've been clear in our commitment to bring leverage down, guiding for this to be well within our target leverage range no later than fiscal '28.
Nik Jhangiani: Thank you, Sonya. Let me talk you through the guidance for fiscal 2026 and then share some closing thoughts. We are already about a month into fiscal 2026, and I continue to see a challenging consumer environment. For the full year, we expect similar rates of organic net sales growth to those that we have seen in fiscal 2025. We are also mindful that some factors will impact phasing of growth through fiscal 2026. Two key regions I would highlight here are Asia-Pacific, where we will have a relatively late Chinese New Year in 2026, and also North America, where we are lapping the increase of Don Julio inventories, as we highlighted through fiscal 2025. As such, for the first half of fiscal 2026, we expect organic net sales growth to be slightly negative, with growth skewed to the second half.
And with that, I'd like to hand back to Nick.
Thank you, Sonya. Let me talk you through the guidance for fiscal 2026, and then share some closing thoughts.
We're about a month into fiscal 2026, and I continue to see a challenging consumer environment for the full year. We expect similar rates of organic net sales growth to those that we have seen in fiscal 2025.
We're also mindful that some factors will impact the phasing of growth through fiscal 2026.
Two key regions I would highlight here are Asia-Pacific, where we will have a relatively late Chinese New Year in 2026, and also N.A., where we are lapping the increase of Don Julio inventories, as we highlighted through fiscal 2025.
Nik Jhangiani: We expect to deliver positive operating profit leverage, as we set out before, boosted by our savings from our accelerate program. For fiscal 2026, we expect mid-single digit organic operating profit growth. This also includes the impact of U.S. tariffs based on what we know today. We have also shared today tax and interest cost guidance. Finally, on free cash flow, we expect to deliver circa $3 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2026. This is also importantly after cash exceptional costs. You will also see in the appendix a slide updating on the latest guidance for tariffs into the U.S. Assuming that there are no changes to what is currently proposed, namely a 10% rate for U.K.
As such, for the first half of fiscal 2026, we expect organic net sales growth to be slightly negative, with growth skewed to the second half.
We expect to deliver positive operating profit leverage, as we set out before, boosted by our savings from our Accelerate program for fiscal 2026. We expect mid-single-digit organic operating profit growth. This also includes the impact of U.S. tariffs, based on what we know today.
We've also shared today tax and interest cost guidance, and finally on free cash flow. We expect to deliver a circuit of $3 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2026. This is also importantly after cash exceptional costs.
Nik Jhangiani: imports and a 15% rate for European imports into the U.S., then the annualized impact would be circa $200 million, of which we expect to mitigate 50% in the first year before any broader pricing actions specific to tariffs. This also assumes Mexican and Canadian imports remain exempt under USMCA. As I have said, this is included in our fiscal 2026 guidance. Also, as highlighted in today's press release, we have changed our policy on hedging and now net out anticipated transactional and translational foreign exchange. Going forward, this should reduce foreign exchange volatility over time. To close, in a challenging year, we delivered organic sales and profit in line with our guidance in fiscal 2025 and with a healthy balance between volume and price mix.
You will also see in the appendix the slide updating on the latest guidance for tariffs into the US, assuming that there are no changes to what is currently proposed, namely a 10% rate for UK imports and a 15% rate for European imports into the US. Then, the annualized impact would be circa $2,000 million, of which we expect to mitigate 50% in the first.
Here, before any broader pricing actions specific to tariffs.
This also assumes that Mexican and Canadian imports remain exempt under the USMCA. As I've said, this is included in our fiscal 2026 guidance.
Also, as highlighted in today's press release, we have changed our policy on hedging and now net out anticipated transactional and translational foreign exchange going forward. This should reduce foreign exchange volatility over time.
Nik Jhangiani: Whilst I am encouraged by our areas of progress, there is clearly much more to do, and I am excited by the potential opportunities as we sharpen our strategy to ensure Diageo is on the front foot again. We remain focused on driving sustainable growth ahead of the market in an evolving TBA landscape, including addressing the role of moderation. We will fully leverage our incredible portfolio and the competitive strength of our business. We remain firmly focused on what we can manage and control. The implementation of our accelerate program is key to strengthening Diageo for the future. We are embedding a more performance-driven culture across Diageo, embracing continuous improvement, increasing speed and agility, and driving increased accountability amongst our leadership. This is supported by clear expectations on behaviors, capability building, and aligned incentives, where we have made progress in the year, specifically on free cash flow and ROIC.
So, to close in a challenging year, we delivered organic sales and profit in line with our guidance in fiscal 2025, with a healthy balance between volume and price mix.
While I'm encouraged by our areas of progress, there's clearly much more to do, and I'm excited by the potential opportunities. As we sharpen our strategy to ensure Diageo is on the front foot again.
We remain focused on driving sustainable growth, ahead of the market in an evolving TBA landscape, including addressing the role of moderation. We will fully leverage our incredible portfolio and the competitive strengths of our business.
We remain firmly focused on what we can manage and control. The implementation of our Accelerate program is key to strengthening Azure for the future. We are embedding a more performance-driven culture across Azure, embracing continuous improvement, increasing speed and agility, and driving increased accountability amongst our leadership.
Nik Jhangiani: While there is a lot to do, I am also focused on instilling confidence in the team and with our people on what we can do together. Personally, now 11 months in, I am honored to be trusted by the board and the broader organization to lead Diageo in the interim period. I would like to say that I have never been more convinced, as I am today, about our employees' passion for our brands, the strength of our brand portfolio, and the incredible growth potential ahead for this company. I am excited by our work underway to drive meaningful growth opportunities as we continue to progress our reshaped priorities. I look forward to updating you on how we can accelerate top-line growth, how we are strengthening our capabilities, and improving commercial excellence in the coming months.
This is supported by clear expectations on behaviors, capability building, and aligned incentives, where we have made progress in the year, specifically on free cash flow and ROIC.
While there is a lot to do, I'm also focused on instilling confidence in the team and with our people on what we can do together.
Personally, now 11 months in, I am honored to be trusted by the board and the broader organization to lead the AIO in the interim. Period.
Opportunities, as we continue to progress, are reshaped priorities.
Nik Jhangiani: More to come on this, but rest assured, the board and I are working at speed and with a clear mandate to restore Diageo to a top quartile TSR consumer company. Thank you, everyone, for listening to us today.
I look forward to updating you on how we can accelerate topline growth, how we are strengthening our capabilities, and improving commercial excellence in the coming months.
More to come on this. But rest assured, the board and I are working at speed and with a clear mandate to restore the AIO to a top quartile TSR consumer company. Thank you, everyone, for listening to us today.