Q3 2025 Howard Hughes Holdings Inc Earnings Call

Speaker #1: After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press *11 on your telephone.

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Speaker #1: I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Joe Villein, General Counsel. Please go ahead.

Speaker #2: Good morning and welcome to the Howard Hughes Holdings third quarter 2025 earnings call. With me today are Bill Ackman, executive chairman, David O'Reilly, chief executive officer, Brian Israel, chief investment officer, and Carlos Olea, chief financial officer.

Speaker #2: Before we begin, I would like to direct you to our website, www.howardhughes.com, where you can download both our third quarter earnings press release and our supplemental package.

Speaker #2: The earnings release and supplemental package include reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures that will be discussed today, in relation to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.

Speaker #2: Certain statements made today that are not in the present tense or that discuss the company's expectations are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws.

Speaker #2: Although the company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, we can give no assurance that these expectations will be achieved.

Speaker #2: Please see the forward-looking statement disclaimer in our third quarter earnings press release and the risk factors in our SEC filing for factors that could cause material differences between forward-looking statements and actual results.

Speaker #2: We are not under any duty to update forward-looking statements unless required by law. I will now turn the call over to our CEO, David O'Reilly.

Speaker #3: Thanks, Joe, and good morning, everyone. I'm going to start with a quick overview of the quarter and some highlights for Howard Hughes communities. Carlos will walk through guidance in our cash flow outlook.

Speaker #3: Before handing it over to Bill and Brian to share updates on our holding company strategy, we delivered another strong quarter across every business segment, underscoring the strength of our real estate platform and the value of our transformation into a diversified holding company.

Speaker #3: Starting with our MPC segment, we had a record quarter, generating $205 million in EBT, driven by strong land sales in Summerlin. We sold 319 acres at roughly $795,000 an acre, that included a single $231-acre bulk sale of raw undeveloped land, sold at a 75% margin.

Speaker #3: But below our average price per acre since it required no upfront infrastructure. Excluding that one transaction, the rest of our land averaged about $1.7 million per acre.

Speaker #3: We earned more than $14.5 million in builder price participation, reflecting continued home price growth in Summerlin. In Bridgeland, land sales remained steady, and we're gearing up for the grand opening of Terra Vallis in Phoenix later this month.

Speaker #3: Model homes are open, builders are active, and momentum is strong at Florio. While broader national headlines point to slower home sales, we're once again seeing the opposite in our communities, delivering strong results to counter current headlines.

Speaker #3: Our perpetual cycle of value creation and self-funding model, combined with limited competition, continues to give us a major edge. As a result, we expect to finish the year with record high residential land sales, record pricing, and a record full-year MPC EBT.

Speaker #3: Given this performance, we're once again raising our full year MPC guidance. Moving to operating assets, NOI grew 5% year over year to $68 million, driven by leasing momentum across the portfolio.

Speaker #3: Office NOI was up 7%, thanks to strong activity in Columbia and the expiration of some large abatements. We signed 55,000 square feet of new or expanded office leases, and the stabilized office portfolio ended the quarter at $89% lease.

Speaker #3: Multifamily NOI grew 2% as new projects in Summerlin and Bridgeland continued leasing ahead of plan. Our stabilized multifamily portfolio is now 96% leased. Retail NOI was up 9% year over year, led by great performance at Ward Village and Merriweather District.

Speaker #3: Our stabilized retail portfolio remains above 90% leased. Turning to strategic developments, we reached a new record with $1.4 billion in condo pre-sales, led by Malia and Alima, our 12th and 13th towers at Ward Village.

Speaker #3: Both are off to an incredible start and already collectively 57% pre-sold. The Lanu in Ward Village and the Ritz-Carlton residences in the Woodlands are now 68% and 74% pre-sold, respectively.

Speaker #3: Beyond condo sales, we broke ground on the Memorial Hermann Medical Office building in Bridgeland. The first step in what we expect will be coming $1 million square foot medical district.

Speaker #3: And right after quarter-end, we completed Riva Row, a $268 million unit luxury multifamily property along the Woodlands Waterway. That project sets a new bar for multifamily living in the area and will meaningfully contribute to NOI once stabilized.

Speaker #3: What's most exciting is how the cash flow generated across our communities is reinvested right back into value-creating developments. Projects like Alima and Malia at Ward Village are one Riva Row in the Woodlands, each one is a perfect example of how we recycle capital to grow both future cash flows and long-term net asset value across our portfolio.

Speaker #3: It's been a busy and rewarding quarter across Howard Hughes communities. And I couldn't be prouder of how our teams continue to execute. With that, I'll hand it over to Carlos.

Speaker #4: Thanks, David. And good morning, everyone. I'll start with a recent financing, followed by guidance updates and our view on cash flow generation. We refinanced about $114 million of near-term maturities during the quarter, pushing them out into 2026 and beyond, including loans at 3831 Technology Forest, Wingspan, and 6100 Merriweather.

Speaker #4: As a result, our 2025 maturities are down to just $76 million, which we expect to refinance before the end of the year. Turning to guidance, strong land sales across our MPCs led us to raise full year EBT guidance to $450 million at the midpoint, up $20 million from prior guidance.

Speaker #4: 2025 will be another record-breaking year. Now, not every year will look like this, but it shows the power of our model when all cylinders are firing.

Speaker #4: Land sales bring residents; residents drive demand for retail and office, and that demand pushes land values even higher. Operating assets also performed well this quarter, so we're reaffirming full-year NOI guidance of $267 million, which is another company record.

Speaker #4: Our ability to control supply within our MPCs with little to no outside competition continues to be a key advantage. On condos, we're adjusting our full year revenue target slightly down $15 million, to $360 million, reflecting a small timing shift for Oana closings into early 2026.

Speaker #4: Oana remains fully sold and is expected to deliver at breakeven. More importantly, our future pipeline is stronger than ever, with $1.4 billion of pre-sales this quarter across Malia, Alima, and the Ritz-Carlton residence in the Woodlands.

Speaker #4: This project will generate meaningful cash flows over the next five years. On G&A, we're maintaining guidance between $76 million and $86 million, with a midpoint of $81 million.

Speaker #4: That excludes approximately $13 million of anticipated non-cash stock compensation, $10 million of severance expenses, and $4 million related to purchasing square variable advisory fees incurred year-to-date.

Speaker #4: However, it does include $10 million for patient-square-based advisory fees, which we've largely offset through earlier workforce reductions and other cost efficiencies. Finally, given our outperformance, we're raising adjusted operating cash flow guidance to $440 million, or $7.86 per diluted share.

Speaker #4: Up $30 million from our prior outlook. What's important is what we do with that cash flow. It's reinvested into our communities to generate even greater value.

Speaker #4: The projects David mentioned, from new condominium towers like Malia and Alima, to value creation developments like one Riva Row, are exactly where that cash goes, driving higher net asset value and future cash flow generation.

Speaker #4: With that, I'll hand it over to Bill and Ryan.

Speaker #5: Thank you, Carlos. So, my update is really about our progress in acquiring an insurance company that will become a base for the transformation of Howard Hughes into a diversified holding company.

Speaker #5: Good news is that we've made substantial progress. We identified a target. We've done a significant amount of due diligence. We've come to an agreement on price.

Speaker #5: The seller has begun drafting definitive agreements. We are still deep in the due diligence process. It is possible that something would emerge that would cause us not to go forward.

Speaker #5: But based on the work we've done to date, I'm actually growing confidence in the transaction will be completed. And I would say we may be in a position to announce something as early as end of year, or possibly in the first quarter.

Speaker #5: So we're pleased with that progress. I look forward to sharing more details but a significant development for the company for sure, assuming we can execute on this transaction.

Speaker #5: That's really my only announcement. The only other point I would make with respect to what Carlos said is that our priority regarding the cash flows generated from our real estate subsidiary is to invest whatever is required to continue to build the best places for people to live in the country.

Speaker #5: The good news is, even after that reinvestment of cash into equity, to build a downtown, office buildings, apartments, the next condominium project, we projected Howard Hughes will generate substantially the real estate subsidiary was substantially more cash than we can even spend.

Speaker #5: And that division of the business over time, that will generate cash that we can flow up to the holding company that will give us more flexibility in building out our diversified holding company strategy.

Speaker #5: With that, why don't we open it for questions?

Speaker #6: Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press *11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press *11 again.

Speaker #6: Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Anthony Paolone. From JP Morgan.

Speaker #7: Great. Thanks. Good morning. First question relates to just super pad sales. Those seem to be pretty successful in the quarter. And just wondering how do you think of the trade-off of doing more of those and the NPV of just taking the discount and not having to do all the infrastructure and just letting those go versus holding them and taking them a little bit further down and selling more groups of lots as opposed to the super pad?

Speaker #8: Good morning, Tony. Thanks for the question. It's David. Look, I think that this was a rare situation where we had a piece of land.

Speaker #8: And if you remember from the time when you were in Summerlin, it's what we used to call the back bowl. It was due south of the summit development.

Speaker #8: It was a particular piece of land that had an unusually high expense of bringing infrastructure to. And in this unique situation, by selling that super pad at a lower net price per acre or lower gross price per acre, but higher net price per acre, we were able to generate great cash flow for the company.

Speaker #8: In general, going forward, we don't have another parcel like that. So you should expect us to transact on super pads going forward consistent with the way we have the past several quarters.

Speaker #8: At a much higher gross end net price per acre.

Speaker #7: Okay. Got it. And then just my other question just shifts more over to Bill and thinking about this insurance company that you've got teed up.

Speaker #7: Should we anticipate that after doing a deal like the one you're contemplating, that uses up the bulk of your sort of capital today? Or do you think you'll have more capacity thereafter to do more deals and just wondering kind of where this leaves you?

Speaker #8: Sure. So we think so, one, it will consume the available cash that we've injected into the company. And our reason why we're focused on insurance as sort of our first initiative is it's a business that we can contribute very significant value to.

Speaker #8: If you look at, again, if we take our Berkshire Hathaway model, and look at Buffett achieved over time, my estimate or sort of estimate is something like 70 to 80 percent of the value of the company was created with the launch of insurance strategy and a approach to writing business that created a lot of flexibility for the insurer to, I would say, have more flexible investment approach.

Speaker #8: So Buffett historically wrote very little risk relative to capital, and invested relatively small amount of assets relative to capital, but invested those assets about two-thirds of those assets in common stocks and did so effectively.

Speaker #8: And the beauty of insurance business is insurance generates a lot of cash. You don't need to issue stock every time you do a deal.

Speaker #8: The insurance business, you write premium. You collect cash. And over time, you invest that capital and earn a return on the assets. And hopefully, make money on the insurance side of the business.

Speaker #8: If we can achieve both of those objectives—combining Pershing Square's investment expertise with a talented management team running a diversified insurance company platform—we think that asset alone can compound to grow to become a material, very significant contributor to the growth of the company, the growth of our intrinsic value over time.

Speaker #8: And then as the real estate subsidiary generates cash that's not needed in the real estate business, that's what's going to give us flexibility to make investments in other assets over time.

Speaker #8: But insurance is clearly our first priority.

Speaker #7: Okay. Thanks for that.

Speaker #8: Sure.

Speaker #6: Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Alexander Goldfarb from Piper Sandler.

Speaker #7: Hey, good morning down there. So two questions. First, David, only 57% pre-sold on the new condos in Hawaii. I would expect better out of you guys.

Speaker #7: Just kidding. As far as Ward Village goes, where do you stand on the existing entitlements and meaning how many more can you build? And what is the status on phase two?

Speaker #7: Is that something that you could see approvals for and launch in the next few years? Or phase two of Ward Village is something that's maybe 5 or 10 years out?

Speaker #8: Morning, Alex. Great question. Look, I would say that we're thrilled with our 57% pre-sale of over $1.4 billion this quarter and see continued momentum, as those projects are super unique and on the best remaining development site on the South Shore of Oahu.

Speaker #8: In terms of the initial entitlements we had through the master development agreement at Ward Village, beyond these two towers, Malia and Alima, there is one more site that will use the remaining square feet beyond that.

Speaker #8: We do have approval for an incremental square footage, and that incremental square footage could be between 2 million and 4 million, depending on the zoning upsizes we get by reinvesting into the community.

Speaker #8: So we're already well underway in pre-development of incremental towers in addition to what we had by right under our original master development agreement.

Speaker #7: Okay, that's helpful. And then, Bill, following up on Anthony's question, I realize obviously there's a lot of confidentiality, but just big picture, can you give us some color on this pure B2B, as you described before? Is everything in this entity clean, or are there businesses that you'd want to exit, or any legacy policies or legacy lines that need to be settled, or anything like that?

Speaker #8: Look, I would say it's a very clean transaction for us. It's a platform, kind of a diversified insurance company platform that really fits our criteria that we've outlined.

Speaker #8: So no business lines that we need to exit. It's not a consumer-facing insurer. Yeah.

Speaker #7: And can you indicate whether it's domestic or Bermuda or somewhere offshore?

Speaker #8: I would say as many insurers are as a domestic practice and an offshore practice.

Speaker #7: Okay. Thank you, Bill.

Speaker #8: Thank you.

Speaker #6: Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star, one, one on your telephone, and wait for your name to be announced.

uh, to the second half of your question, John, there are a couple of

Sites. In addition to the rich Carlton site for future condo projects in the Woodland and we're evaluating those real time. Uh determining where we think deep demand will be what price per foot. That is what size of units, are, Etc. And we're also evaluating a couple of sites in and around Summerland.

Uh, where we could Leverage The expertise and skill of our team in Ward Village across the rest of our portfolio to deliver, great, cash flow results for the company.

Okay. All right. So that's very helpful and then maybe a second actually I got I got a question for David. What's the spread in price per square foot? We've achieved on the later? Sold units versus the first sold units, uh, in The Woodlands.

How much you've have the price per square foot have gone up on a kind of comparable unit and well, you know, 1 of the challenging Parts is that with the Bob Stern design is there are very few operable units in general. We've seen from kind of our initial sales to where we are today about 350 to 400, dollars a foot increase increase and the average sale price now is what per square foot really high. Okay, it's a good the precise number scientific term, you understand the point this is the kind of asset that I think to to to generate the the maximize The Profit, you know, we don't we don't have we're not like a typical developer.

That has to sell all the units before we can get a construction loan. So for us, we can be thoughtful about the pace of sale to maximize the npv of the project.

Okay, all right, that makes sense. And then uh, Tara Valles. I I was in the Phoenix Airport. Recently saw, you guys have some advertisements up there, uh, to to alert people out to, uh, to that Community. I just curious. I mean, just remind me like, what should we be expecting in terms of MPC, land sales, maybe in 2026, or or maybe, maybe if you want to give me a multi-year Outlook? Like just remind me on where you guys are at on, on rolling that out. Yeah, absolutely. So we're, we're in a great spot right now. We've sold about a thousand Lots year to date in Terra Valles and that will be enough to keep us busy for the near-term future. I think you may be able to see us sell some incremental, Lots in 2026, uh, but 2027 will probably be a year where we re-up after those lots that we sold this year, end up in the hands of residents and home buyers.

We're excited this Friday. We have our official grand opening at Terra Valley. We've already sold our first few lots to different residents that will be constructing their homes right now, and we're incredibly excited with the progress that we've seen and how fast this community has come together.

Sounds great. Thank you. That's all for me. Thank you.

Thanks John. Thank you.

Thank you. One moment for our next question.

Our next question comes from the line of Alexander Goldfarb from Piper Sandler.

Uh thank you for taking a follow-up. Uh David I I realized that it's not the fourth quarter and we have to hold off on guidance but still the pace of your increase is especially in land. In the land business has been pretty incredible this year and is there something sort of a ballpark you know I think you're tracking 440 million at the midpoint for for 25. Is there something that we should be thinking of for 26? So either 1 we don't get too far ahead of ourselves or maybe the pace that you've delivered. This year is sort of a new run rate is something sustainable.

I think it is pretty early right now to feel comfortable providing any sort of guidance on 2026 land sales.

I think that 2025 has been remarkable. We've raised guidance twice, clearly. We didn't expect to see this strength when we gave guidance, you know, a little bit less than a year ago.

I think that.

At this point, I would not advise anyone to extrapolate this year's results into growing further into the future.

Like we're going to take it quarter by quarter. We're going to see how many homes we sell in our communities, and we're going to sell just enough land to keep up with that at the highest price per acre we possibly can. But it's not going to hurt if rates come down, obviously.

Continue to come down. No, I think that we've achieved.

These results reflect the quality of our community. As people chase, you know, higher quality of life, shorter commutes, and more connectivity to nature in these master-planned communities, the more quite higher rates, the more like New York and California moves socialist, the more that people want to go to capitalist states like Texas and Las Vegas.

Has been strong. Yeah.

You feel right now there's a good balance between what the builders have bought versus their ability to deliver? Or do you think they're a little long on land or a little short on land? I'm just trying to get a sense of the appetite from the home builders to buy more right now.

I would tell you that we are selling land to the homebuilders only to keep up with underlying home sales in our communities and that strategy won't change.

We try to keep them at, uh, an appropriate supply, which I would argue is between 12 and 18 months of finished lots or vacant developed lots. They're a little bit under supplied right now.

Uh, but

if you don't we we like to be a little bit under supplied, then a little bit over supplied when in when we have the opportunity,

thank you.

Thank you at this time. I would now like to turn the conference back over to David O'Reilly for closing remarks.

Want to thank everyone again for joining us today as always if there's any follow-up or any questions we weren't able to get to we are always available and look forward to seeing you all soon. Thank you. Thanks so much.

Bye, bye.

This concludes today's conference call, thank you for participating. You may now disconnect