Q3 2025 Kontoor Brands Inc Earnings Call
Speaker #1: Greetings, and welcome to the Contour Brands Q3 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation.
Speaker #1: You may be placed into question cue at any time by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If anyone should require operator assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad.
Speaker #1: As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to introduce your host, Michael Karapetian, Vice President of Corporate Development Strategy and Investor Relations.
Speaker #1: Michael, please go ahead.
Speaker #2: Thank you, Operator. And welcome to Contour Brands' third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Participants on today's call will make forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations and are subject to uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ.
Speaker #2: These uncertainties are detailed in documents filed with the SEC. We urge you to read our risk factors, cautionary language, and other disclosures contained in those reports.
Speaker #2: Amounts referred to on today's call will often be on an adjusted dollar basis, which we clearly define in the news release that was issued earlier this morning and is available on our website at contourbrands.com.
Speaker #2: Reconciliations of gap measures to adjusted amounts can be found in the supplemental financial tables, included in today's news release. These tables identify and quantify excluded items and provide management's view of why this information is useful to investors.
Speaker #2: Unless otherwise noted, amounts referred to on this call will be in constant currency. Which exclude the translation impact of changes in foreign currency exchange rates.
Speaker #2: Joining me on today's call are Contour Brands President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chairman Scott Baxter, and Chief Financial Officer and Global Head of Operations, Joe Alkire.
Speaker #2: Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. Scott.
Speaker #3: Thanks, Mike. And thank you all for joining us today. Our third quarter results highlight the power of our expanded brand portfolio. Heli Hansen grew double digits, Wrangler gained market share for the 14th consecutive quarter, and we launched Lee's first equity campaign in years.
Speaker #3: While taking proactive steps to improve the health of the marketplace. While the timing shift impacted growth in the quarter, stronger gross margin expansion and disciplined expense management drove better-than-expected earnings.
Speaker #3: Based on our year-to-date performance and improving profitability, we are raising our full-year outlook. While the environment remains dynamic, we are well-positioned to finish the year strong and enter 26 with momentum.
Speaker #3: Now let's review highlights from Q3, starting with Heli Hansen. Third quarter results exceeded expectations, with revenue growth of 11% and 3 cents of earnings increase.
Speaker #3: Growth was broad-based across both sport and workwear in all regions. The business is performing at a high level, the integration is progressing well, and we continue to uncover new opportunities to create significant value together.
Speaker #3: To build on this momentum, we are focused on our strategic pillars. First, accelerate growth. It starts with product. Our iconic platforms, including Crew, Alpha Legendary, and Leafa Merino, continue to differentiate Heli in the marketplace and generate strong demand from our consumers.
Speaker #3: And our latest product launches, have made 25 a record year. We won six red dot design awards, our most ever in a single year.
Speaker #3: Award-winning products include the Odin Ultimate Infinity Jacket, Arctic Patrol Down Parka, and Within Workwear, the Magni Evolution Jacket. These are scalable platforms that we will drive global growth and nowhere is that opportunity greater than in the US.
Speaker #3: We see significant room to grow through a combination of new distribution, D2C growth, and investments in demand creation to increase brand awareness. Currently, awareness in the U.S. is only 29%.
Speaker #3: This has grown by 6 points since 2019, while revenue has more than doubled. Starting next year, we will be making investments in top funnel demand creation to increase awareness and fuel accelerated growth.
Speaker #3: Within workwear, there are considerable market share opportunities leveraging Heli's unique dual brand position. The connection to technical outdoor products worn by professionals on the mountain or water has made Heli a leader in pro-grade workwear in Europe.
Speaker #3: In the US, we are leading with footwear in regions where Heli sport penetration is greatest. Over time, this will expand to include the broader apparel assortment, supported by further development of our lightweight and cooling platforms to drive growth in warmer climates.
Speaker #3: Outside the U.S., we see opportunities entering new markets in Asia and increasing penetration in key markets within Europe, including Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. In addition, we will continue to support our business in China, which we operate through a joint venture.
Speaker #3: China is on track for over 70% growth this year. And second, double operating margin. We expect to increase operating margin from high single digits today to mid-teens through a combination of gross margin expansion and SG&A benefits.
Speaker #3: We are leveraging our global operating model, supply chain and technology platforms, as well as project genius. This will create greater backend efficiency and increased investment capacity to support our growth initiatives.
Speaker #3: Heli is headed into the fourth quarter with incredible momentum, and I could not be more confident in the opportunities ahead. Turning to Wrangler, global revenue increased 1%, including 12% growth in digital, wholesale growth was impacted by a timing shift into the fourth quarter, excluding this shift; global revenue increased at a mid-single digit rate; the third quarter marked Wrangler's 14th consecutive quarter of share gains according to Circana; and our core men's and women's bottoms business, we gained 80 basis points of market share.
Speaker #3: Our female business had another strong quarter with growth of 20%. Our collaboration with Laney Wilson continues to exceed expectations. Her latest collection is performing very well, while supporting more premium AURs and increased penetration with younger consumers.
Speaker #3: And bespoke is now the number one female style at select specialty retailers. This has been a banner year for our female business, and we expect double-digit growth for the year.
Speaker #3: Western grew high single digits in the quarter, as the number one Western apparel brand we have never been stronger. At the upcoming Wrangler National Finals Rodeo in Las Vegas, we will be represented by some of the top athletes in the world, as well as host events at the annual Cowboy Christmas.
Speaker #3: Where the Western world converges to showcase the best of Western apparel. In addition, Wrangler Country Music stars Laney Wilson and Cody Johnson will perform sold-out shows.
Speaker #3: Western is on track for double-digit growth this year. To support this momentum, we will continue to invest behind our demand creation platforms, including live sports, streaming, and social media.
Speaker #3: In particular, our highly successful Good Mornings make for better days, campaign will continue through the balance of the year as we build momentum for the holidays and 26.
Speaker #3: Turning to Lee, revenue declined 9% as we took proactive steps to improve the health of the marketplace in China. Excluding these actions, revenue declined 4%.
Speaker #3: We are encouraged by the progress we are making against our brand realignment, digital is leading the way with growth of 15% in the US, as we previewed last quarter, we launched our Built Like Lee equity campaign in September.
Speaker #3: The first of this scale in years. While early days, we are encouraged by the reaction in the marketplace and have seen improvements in both brand equity and perception.
Speaker #3: We are also making progress in aligning products to our refreshed brand position. In addition to activating our iconic platforms, we are seeing success with new introductions such as Velocity Pant in collaborations with Crayola and Buck Mason.
Speaker #3: Crayola will be Lee's strongest collaboration ever, and our second collaboration with Buck Mason is outperforming the initial launch. Importantly, our 2025 collabs are attracting three times more millennial purchasers.
Speaker #3: While the Lee turnaround will not be linear, we will do this the right way. We expect sequential improvement in the fourth quarter. Finally, we announced this morning that we made an additional $25 million voluntary debt repayment in the third quarter.
Speaker #3: And we expect to further reduce debt by 185 million in Q4. We are attracting ahead of our de-leverage plan and expect to return to approximately two times by year-end, while consolidating a significant increase in earnings and cash flow.
Speaker #3: De-leverage is our near-term priority, but we will take an offensive posture to deploy our cash generation to support our capital allocation framework, including our dividend and share repurchase programs.
Speaker #3: Before turning it over to Joe, let me reiterate the confidence we have in achieving our 25 plan. Our expanded brand portfolio provides significant opportunities to create value through strong fundamentals and increasing capital allocation optionality. While the environment remains uncertain, we are being proactive with initiatives such as Project Genius to offset headwinds in the marketplace.
Speaker #3: We are executing at a high level, and I am confident we are on a path to drive strong value for shareholders. Joe.
Speaker #2: Thanks, Scott. And thank you all for joining us today. Our third quarter results reflect the strength of our operating model and the benefits from our expanded brand portfolio.
Speaker #2: And what remains a highly dynamic environment, our fundamentals are strong and we are operating from a position of strength. While a timing shift impacted revenue growth in the quarter, better than expected revenue and profitability from Heli Hansen, stronger gross margin expansion, and further improvement in operating efficiency drove earnings upside relative to our outlook.
Speaker #2: Based on our year-to-date performance and increased visibility into the fourth quarter, we are raising our full-year revenue, gross margin, earnings, and cash flow outlook.
Speaker #2: We are well positioned to finish off a record year with good momentum as we enter 2026. Let's review our third-quarter results. Global revenue increased 27%, including the contribution from Helly Hansen.
Speaker #2: By brand, Wrangler global revenue increased 1%. Revenue growth was impacted by a shift in the timing of wholesale shipments from the third to the fourth quarter.
Speaker #2: Excluding the shift, global revenue increased at a mid-single digit rate as a result of strong demand for the brand around the globe. In the US, revenue increased 1%, driven by 11% growth in DTC.
Speaker #2: Wholesale was flat to prior year; however, excluding the previously mentioned timing shift, US wholesale revenue increased at a mid-single digit rate. Growth was broad-based, driven by strong increases in female, Western, as well as continued market share gains.
Speaker #2: Denim grew at a low single digit rate. Following a strong July and August, POS moderated to a low single digit increase in September, consistent with the year-to-date average.
Speaker #2: October POS was flat compared to prior year, with POS increasing at a mid-single digit rate over the past two weeks. Wrangler International revenue increased 2%, driven by 19% growth in digital and 1% growth in wholesale.
Speaker #2: Turning to Lee, global revenue decreased 9%. During the quarter, revenue was impacted by proactive actions in China to address challenges in the marketplace. We discussed our intent to execute these actions on our second quarter call.
Speaker #2: Excluding the actions taken in China, global Lee revenue decreased 4%, reflecting sequential improvement in the revenue comparison from the second quarter, and we expect further improvement in the fourth quarter.
Speaker #2: US revenue decreased 9% as we work to address challenges within certain segments of our distribution footprint and drive more consistency with the brand's realignment and go forward strategy.
Speaker #2: Digital revenue increased 15%. We remain encouraged by the momentum in our digital business, which has continued into the fourth quarter. Lee International revenue decreased 9%, with declines in wholesale offsetting mid-single digit growth in our brick-and-mortar stores.
Speaker #2: Excluding the actions taken in China, Lee International revenue increased approximately 3%. Now turning to Heli Hansen. Global revenue of 193 million increased 11% compared to prior year reported results.
Speaker #2: Growth was broad-based across both sport and workwear and in all geographic regions. We are encouraged by the stronger-than-expected results, the integration is progressing well, and we are confident Heli will be a significant contributor to both revenue and earnings growth in the coming years.
Speaker #2: We now have line of sight to greater than 25 million of run rate synergies, which will begin to meaningfully impact profitability in 2026. These synergies will help fund investments in the business, including geographic and category expansion, demand creation, DTC, supply chain capabilities, and our technology platform.
Speaker #2: As we look forward to 2026, we expect Heli's momentum to continue to build. The spring-summer order book has accelerated from fall-winter 2025, and workwear pre-orders are up at a double-digit rate.
Speaker #2: We recently kicked off the fall-winter 2026 selling season and the feedback from the marketplace has been strong. Reflecting the robust product and innovation pipeline of the brand.
Speaker #2: Moving to the remainder of the P&L. Adjusted gross margin expanded 80 basis points to 45.8%. Excluding Heli Hansen, adjusted gross margin expanded 140 basis points, driven by the benefits of Project Genius, channel and product mix, as well as targeted pricing actions.
Speaker #2: This was partially offset by increased product costs and the impact from recently enacted increases in tariffs. Heli Hansen was diluted to adjusted gross margin by approximately 60 basis points.
Speaker #2: During the quarter, we took actions to improve inventory turnover and increase cash generation and accelerate debt repayment. There is a significant opportunity at Heli Hansen to improve both gross margin and networking capital by leveraging our supply chain capabilities in the areas of planning, procurement, and inventory management.
Speaker #2: Adjusted SG&A expense was $269 million. Excluding Helly Hansen, adjusted SG&A was flat compared to the prior year, supported by lower distribution and freight expenses and the benefits of Project Genius.
Speaker #2: We remain focused on driving further improvements in operating efficiency in light of the environment. An adjusted earnings per share was $1.44, increasing 5% compared to prior year.
Speaker #2: Adjusted EPS was 9 cents above our prior outlook. Heli Hansen contributed 3 cents per share compared to our prior outlook of break-even earnings. Turning to the balance sheet.
Speaker #2: Inventory at the end of the third quarter was 765 million. Excluding Heli Hansen, inventory increased 21% to 560 million driven by a temporary increase in inventory to support our supply chain transformation earlier than expected inventory receipts as a result of improved sourcing lead times as well as the impact of tariffs.
Speaker #2: We expect inventory to normalize in the fourth quarter and decrease approximately 120 million from the third quarter to approximately 645 million. We finished the quarter with net debt of 1.3 billion and 82 million of cash on hand.
Speaker #2: Our $500 million revolver remains undrawn. On a pro forma basis, our net leverage ratio was 2.5 times. During the quarter, we made a voluntary $25 million debt repayment.
Speaker #2: We are tracking ahead of our deleverage plan and expect to make an additional $185 million voluntary payment in the fourth quarter. We anticipate returning to approximately two times net leverage by year-end.
Speaker #2: Share repurchase activity remains on pause near-term as we focus on paying down acquisition-related debt and reducing leverage. We have 215 million remaining under our current share repurchase authorization.
Speaker #2: And as previously announced, our board declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of 53 cents per share, a 2% increase. finally, on a trailing 12-month basis, adjusted return on invested capital was 23%, improving from 22% in the second quarter.
Speaker #2: And Now let's review our updated outlook. Full year revenue is now expected to be at the upper end of our prior outlook range of 3.09 to 3.12 billion.
Speaker #2: Representing growth of approximately 19 to 20%. Heli Hansen is now expected to contribute 460 million to full year revenue compared to our prior outlook of 455 million.
Speaker #2: Excluding Heli Hansen, we expect revenue growth of approximately 2% compared to our prior outlook of 1 to 2% growth. For the fourth quarter, we expect revenue to be in the range of 970 to 980 million, representing growth of 39 to 40%.
Speaker #2: Including the expected contribution from Heli Hansen. Our outlook includes the impact of a 53rd week, which is expected to benefit the fourth quarter by approximately 4 points of revenue growth.
Speaker #2: We continue to plan the business conservatively. For Wrangler and Lee, our updated outlook assumes no meaningful change in POS trends or inventory positions at retail for the balance of the year.
Speaker #2: This is consistent with our prior outlook. Excluding Heli Hansen, October revenue growth was approximately 6%, tracking slightly ahead of our anticipated organic revenue growth for the fourth quarter, excluding the 53rd week.
Speaker #2: For Heli Hansen, our revenue outlook is supported by current demand trends and the fall-winter 2025 order book, which accounts for the majority of sport revenue.
Speaker #2: Moving to gross margin, adjusted gross margin is now expected to be approximately 46.4%, compared to our prior outlook of approximately 46.1%. Our outlook represents an increase of approximately 130 basis points compared to the prior year.
Speaker #2: We expect fourth quarter adjusted gross margin of approximately 45.8%, representing an increase of approximately 110 basis points compared to prior year. Adjusted SG&A expense is expected to increase approximately 24%, reflecting the contribution from Heli Hansen as well as increased investments primarily in the areas of demand creation, technology, and direct to consumer.
Speaker #2: Excluding Heli, we expect SG&A to increase at a low single-digit rate, consistent with our prior outlook. We continue to anticipate Project Genius savings to mature to a full run rate in excess of 100 million of annual savings over the course of 2026.
Speaker #2: Adjusted EPS is now expected to be approximately $5.50, representing an increase of 12%. This compares to our prior outlook of approximately $5.45. Heli Hansen is expected to benefit full year 2025 adjusted EPS by approximately $0.20, consistent with our prior outlook.
Speaker #2: We have not included any benefit from synergies in our outlook. We expect fourth quarter adjusted EPS of approximately $1.64, reflecting growth of about 19%.
Speaker #2: Finally, we continue to expect another year of strong cash generation. Cash from operations is expected to approximate 400 million, including the contribution from Heli Hansen.
Speaker #2: This compares to our prior outlook for cash from operations to exceed $375 million. Starting in the fourth quarter, we will begin to leverage and expand our supply chain and AR financing programs to include Helly Hansen.
Speaker #2: These programs and capabilities will be a significant unlock for the business while supporting accelerated cash generation and deleverage. Before opening it up for questions, let me reiterate the confidence we have in achieving our 2025 objectives.
Speaker #2: While the environment remains dynamic, we are operating from a position of strength. The integration of Helly Hansen is progressing well, we are ahead of our planned deleverage path, and Wrangler and Lee are on track to deliver a strong fourth quarter.
Speaker #2: Our operational execution and discipline continue to drive further improvements in our business fundamentals, supporting higher returns on capital and significant capital allocation optionality moving forward.
Speaker #2: This concludes our prepared remarks. I will now turn the call back to the operator. Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session.
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Speaker #2: One moment, please, while we pull for questions. Our first question is coming from Ike Boruchow from Wells Fargo. Your line is now live.
Speaker #3: Hey, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the question. A couple from me. I guess, Joe, could you just clarify? Wrangler US Wholesale seems like it was probably up mid to high single digits in the third quarter excess shift.
Speaker #3: Can you confirm that? And then on the four cue, can you kind of work with us on what's embedded in your Wrangler Wholesale number there, both with the shift and then also organic?
Speaker #3: And I know you said POS flattened out in October, but then it sounds like it's accelerated the last couple of weeks. So kind of curious what's in the plan.
Speaker #4: Yeah. Hey, Ike. Good morning. So, on the timing shift, the timing shift impacted Q3 revenue by about two points, with the primary impact being on the Wrangler brand.
Speaker #4: Excluding the shift, total revenue would have been above our prior outlook, driven by Heli, with Wrangler increasing at a mid-single-digit rate. So we had our largest September ever as a company.
Speaker #4: However, order flow and shipment flow were more back half-weighted than we anticipated in our prior outlook. So, the demand was solid; we just had a shift in shipment timing focused on a couple of the key accounts.
Speaker #4: We did see that pull-through in October. I think I said in the prepared remarks that October was up 6% organically compared to the prior year.
Speaker #4: That's a little ahead of what we have contemplated in Q4 in terms of growth, excluding the 53rd week. So nothing we see from a demand standpoint.
Speaker #4: In fact, we've moved to the high end of the revenue range based on our year-to-date performance and our visibility into Q4. Wrangler is probably the biggest part of that.
Speaker #3: Got it. So, no red flags on the consumer thus far, in terms of what you're seeing.
Speaker #4: No, and I would tell you with our broad distribution in the campaigns that we're running right now with both of our denim brands, right now that are out in the marketplace, in addition to the product and the design and just the demand, 14 consecutive quarters now.
Speaker #4: I mean, you've seen that of market share gains with Wrangler. We've put ourselves in a really good position, really like where we sit now for the foreseeable future.
Speaker #4: And we'll continue to really work that through, design great product, tell great stories, broad distribution. It's been a really nice formula of success for us going forward.
Speaker #3: Okay, great. Moving to Heli, so up 11% pro forma growth. I think your first half, you were kind of trending more 1% to 2%.
Speaker #3: So nice acceleration. What's driving the near-term inflection in Heli's brand revenue already? And then I guess based on the order book commentary which is accelerating into next year, could we see Heli growth rates actually continue to accelerate over the next 12 months?
Speaker #4: So I'll go ahead and start. What you're seeing is you're seeing a company that's thriving inside of another apparel company. They haven't had that ecosystem before relative to where they've sat the last decade or so.
Speaker #4: And now they're inside our ecosystem. We're thriving as far as partners working together. They're accelerating on all fronts. The European business, the China business, and the U.S. business are really starting to take off.
Speaker #4: But obviously, we're feeding that. So we're investing that, and we're seeing really good results in. And I think the thing that starts with is they're really building a great product.
Speaker #4: And I think they're having a lot of fun being part of our organization. I think the two companies are working really well together, and I think we see a bright future.
Speaker #4: And I think one of the things that's been really important, because we talked about it, and it's important that we talk about it again, is we see a big opportunity in North America, in addition to what we already have.
Speaker #4: And that is starting to come to fruition. Just having the capability, having our resources in North America to lean on, and then now going ahead and making it a priority because we have made that a priority.
Speaker #4: We're starting to see those results early, so we're really, really excited about what's happening there in the future. Joe, anything to add? Yeah, I'd say I'm the order book.
Speaker #4: I mean, spring, summer '26, that order book for sport reflects an acceleration compared to fall, winter '25. Fall, winter '25 accelerated versus spring, summer '25, and even fall, winter '24.
Speaker #4: So, that business is performing really well. Workwear pre-orders have been strong, up at a low double-digit rate. And we just kicked off the Fall/Winter '26 selling season.
Speaker #4: And it's off to a really good start. The feedback from the marketplace has been really good. We also, we'll put more investment behind the business in '26, which should help further accelerate growth.
Speaker #4: So, just a tremendous opportunity for the brand globally across both sport and work. I think one of the things that's really been beneficial is that management and the team are intact from the acquisition.
Speaker #4: So, they were already a strong team, and we're only making it stronger by adding and helping. But we've got a good core team that we kept through the merger and the acquisition.
Speaker #4: And it's really played out really well for us.
Speaker #3: That's great. And then a quick one lastly, on the inventory Joe, can you help us get comfortable with that number? I think you said up 21% organic Q3, 645 for the end of the year, which implies mid-teens organic.
Speaker #3: It doesn't sound like there are any issues at all, but can you kind of hold our hand a little bit? Because it is a decent growth rate above where the core growth rate is for the business.
Speaker #3: So, any more color there would be helpful.
Speaker #4: Yep. Sure, Ike. So we ended the quarter excluding Heli Hansen up about 21%, about 98 million dollars versus the prior year. So roughly 25 million of that increase related to inventory investments we made to support our supply chain transformation.
Speaker #4: So we closed Artorion Manufacturing Facility in Mexico during the third quarter as part of Project Genius. And we carried excess inventory to support the operational transition.
Speaker #4: So that excess inventory will wind down over the course of the fourth quarter and into the first quarter. And that transition has gone really, really well.
Speaker #4: About 25 million of the increase relates to higher tariffs. So the cost of that is now embedded in our inventory. And about 20 million related to earlier-than-expected receipts of source product as a result of lead times improving.
Speaker #4: So the remaining increase is really in support of the growth plans that we have for the business. We said in our prepared remarks, we expect about a $120 million reduction in Q4.
Speaker #4: And we remain pleased with the overall quality and composition of our inventory.
Speaker #3: Thanks so much, guys.
Speaker #4: Thank you, Ike.
Speaker #1: Thank you. Our next question is coming from Bob Zirbel from BTIG. Your line is now live.
Speaker #5: Hi. Good morning, guys. Just a question on pricing. When you look at your business and you look at sort of the plans into next year, what's happening with pricing with your own product?
Speaker #5: And I guess be curious to just see what you're seeing competitively on pricing as well.
Speaker #4: Yeah. Bob, I would say for us, pricing has been part of a holistic strategy to combat the impact of the tariffs, right? Pricing for us went into effect mid-June in our own DTC.
Speaker #4: And in July, at wholesale. So something we're watching very closely. With our retail partners and look, these plans were put together in collaboration with them and all of the elasticity assumptions, our reflected in the outlook.
Speaker #4: We were very surgical, as you would expect, in terms of where we took price just as we have been in the past. And these price increases were not just a US-focused effort.
Speaker #4: I think that's part of the power of a global multi-brand portfolio. So overall, the price elasticity equation has been largely consistent with our expectation.
Speaker #4: It varies a bit by brand and category and channel, certainly certain parts of the market are more sensitive, others are more more premium areas.
Speaker #4: Less so. But overall, the pricing elasticity equation has been in line with what we expected.
Speaker #2: And Bob, one of the things that we pay particular attention to as an organization is that if you look at all of our brands globally and in the marketplaces where each operates, we really like, from a hierarchy standpoint, where we sit.
Speaker #2: So we're really comfortable with where our brands are positioned and how they're priced compared to our competitors within those marketplaces. So we've been very thoughtful for a long time about how we price and the product that we have.
Speaker #2: So, I’m comfortable with where we sit right now.
Speaker #5: Got it. And just two questions on Heli, if I could. I guess the first one's Scott, I think you mentioned you're seeing new opportunities.
Speaker #5: Just wondering if you could elaborate on that. And within the US business, growing it from the 150 million dollar level, is it new distribution targets?
Speaker #5: I guess if you could expand a bit on the plan in the U.S., that would be helpful. Thanks.
Speaker #2: Oh, absolutely, Bob. Actually, it's everywhere and everything. So it's ski shops, it's independents, it's definitely US wholesale. It's across the board. It's digital. It's owned and operated retail.
Speaker #2: So we've got multiple plans that come into different stages as you can imagine. We've thought it out from a capital standpoint and how we're going to embrace each one.
Speaker #2: And it's really interesting, Bob. We sat back and we said to ourselves, it's even better than we thought at acquisition time. We think there's more than we thought about.
Speaker #2: It's more robust than we thought. People are really reacting and responding very positively to our brand because they've seen it around the world before, and they just haven't seen it enough here in the United States.
Speaker #2: And it's new, and it's fresh, and it's creating some excitement. But they haven't had the distribution to go ahead and purchase it for themselves.
Speaker #2: But now we're going to give them that. And that is starting. Just so you know, because we'll talk about this in the future, we are adding some really key personnel here over the next 12 to 18 months and some significant leadership positions.
Jump. Yeah, yeah. John and on inventory, you know, I know it's a little noisy here with with the addition of of hi. And some of the, some of the transitory impacts that I highlighted, but we're comfortable with the composition of the inventory, the sequential progression we have planned how that's positioned in support of of the growth plans and and hely as well. Uh, we've talked, uh, on prior calls about, uh, the the networking Capital opportunity at heli, you'll begin to see the, uh, the impact of that starting in the fourth quarter and into the first half of next year, which will which will help contribute to, um, you know, some strong cash generation as we as we move into next year.
Okay, great. That's helpful. And and and maybe as a follow-up as we look to 2026. Could you, could you help the frame up as as we think about the contribution from from genius, where you stand, and that the incremental,
Benefit that you may you may achieve and then and then also that the heli Hansen, um, operating contribution, you know, I think you reiterated 20 cents for this year, but you know what? What are some of the factors that might impact? How that how that can grow into next year?
Thanks again.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'll take that John. So um on 26.
Certainly not not giving an Outlook today but um I'll give you a high level framework just giving all of the all of the moving moving parts. So
We expect the organic business to continue to grow. Um, we are, we are performing. Well, that's going to be mainly driven by the Wrangler brand. Uh, 26 will be a transition year for Lee. The highly business is performing really well. As you've seen, we will develop real quickly, which will create an earnings Tailwind, uh, as well as additional Capital allocation optionality as we consolidate and grow that cash flow and that and that earning stream. You'll have synergies. That will scale, more meaningfully across 2026 and you've got project genius, uh, savings. That will be maturing to more of a, to more of a of a full run rate. Um, we will have a bigger impact of tariffs. Uh, next year, um, for 2026, the full year, unmitigated impact is about 135 million which were were clearly working to mitigate a significant portion, uh, of that. But those are the biggest factors influencing 20.
6, we like where we are. We like where we like our model and we've got a lot of optionality to um continue to drive the growth and returns that that we expect.
Great, that's helpful. Thanks again.
Thanks John. Thank you. Next question, is coming from ratio, so from UBS relied is not live.
Great. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions first. Maybe could you, uh, tell us or confirm like what kind of, like, the uh, Q4 organic revenue growth that you're expecting in your guide? I mean, you talked about over 6%. I just wanted to get a sense of what the expectation is for the full quarter. And then, on highly consistent, uh, you know, you raised the revenue contribution a little bit for the year, but there was no really change in the EPS revision of 20 cents. So just was wondering what were the puts and takes on that. Thank you.
The full year outlook we we raised the Outlook, right? Um, part of that was the Q3 outperformance that we had part of that is the increased visibility into the fourth quarter. So we now expect to be at the high end of the prior Outlook range on Revenue organically. We've got a stronger contribution from from heli Hansen and we increased our gross margin earnings and cash flow for the fourth quarter. Our Outlook implies about 6% growth on an organic basis. That includes the 53rd week which is contributing about 4 points to the growth. You also have the benefit of of the timing shift that impacted Us in the third quarter. So, when you put all that together, we have modest growth contemplated for the business in the, in the fourth quarter, Kelly Hansen is expected to contribute, close to 240 million of Revenue as well in the fourth quarter, uh, growing nicely compared to the prior year. So, uh, the assumptions underlying the organic Revenue, we've assumed POS
Trends that are modestly positive, uh, which is what we've seen, you know, for the, for the majority of the Year things have been a little stronger over the last couple of weeks as weather has been more cooperative and then inventory levels at retail, we really haven't assumed any meaningful any meaningful change our Retail Partners, remain in a fairly conservative posture as they have all year. And, and we don't, we don't expect that, we don't expect that to change.
Got it very helpful and then maybe just very quickly on Lee. You know, you sound very positive about the uh, you know feedback that you're getting from the equity campaign. Maybe could you talk a little bit more about, you know, more green shoots on the brand and you've mentioned like sequential Improvement for fourth quarter, is that sequential Improvement versus the 9% decline or versus like the 4% excluding the China, uh, you know, proactive actions. Thank you.
Yeah, sure. I'll take the latter part, and then Scott can take, um, you know, the first part. So the sequential improvement that we referenced is excluding the impact of the China actions in the third quarter. So I would think about sequential improvement relative to the 4% decline that we saw in the third quarter.
So, Mauricio, I would tell you similar to some of the comments that I've already made. We're seeing that our investment is paying off. And what I mean by that is we've invested dramatically in both our product engine and also our advertising and marketing. And so creating the right product for the marketplace, specifically in the channels that we sell the product in, at the right prices. I mentioned earlier and until in a really great story behind that takes a little bit of time. Because as you know, this business, you know, you order over a period of time so to see your results takes, you know, 6, 9 months sometimes a year, except for in the digital component. And what we've seen here early on is.
We are seeing a very strong response in the digital component from both male and female customers, which is really important to us. Our female business is doing exceptionally well. Conversations with our wholesale partners across the globe, as well as with our own retail stores worldwide, have been very positive. I’ve been pleased; we’ve been at this, as you know, for about 18 months now and still have a little ways to go. We’re never going to be satisfied, obviously, going forward. But those are some of the key components as to how we look at the business and how we measure and monitor its performance.
And the sequential Improvement has been really important because it's also a shot from a morale standpoint to the team too. As you can imagine when they're making products that's really working in the marketplace is talking about it. They feel really good about it. So we've got that type of momentum too. So more to come over time because I think we've been very transparent and sharing the story as we've gone along and we'll continue to do that. But right now, the way I would describe it is that everything is on track to how we planned it from the very beginning.
Thank you so much.
Thank you. Next question, is coming from Paul clearing from barklay. Your line is now live.
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. My first is a clarification on the October organic growth of 6%. Is that including the shift of timing from Q3 into Q4? And then on the Q4 guidance, just curious on.
Is it assumed in the Q4 guidance? A continuation of the POS at mid-single digits that you saw in the last two weeks and then a follow-up.
Modestly modestly, positive.
Okay. And my next is on, um, I think you pointed to 25 million of run rate centers for healthy Hansen for 2026, I guess. Can you speak to any, uh, Clarity on, on timing on achieving some of those synergies? How should we think about flowing those through in our model versus, uh, reinvestment? Um, and just when should we expect, uh, to achieve those and and which ones? Thank you.
Yeah, yeah I'll take that poll. So we do have direct line of sight to pretty significant synergies across the business that list of synergies is growing the deeper. We get into the business as you can imagine. Um, part of that is just you know, we we are a more synergistic owner as a global brand operator and a lot of the pain points for the heli business are there are strengths so they'll they'll benefit greatly heli will benefit greatly from being part of our platform as we as we more fully integrate the business that the 25 million that we talked about, we're starting to see it now, it's smaller for 2025. We're starting to see some of those benefits. Now, those will scale more meaningfully across the course of, um, of 26 and and we'll lay that out in the full context of our of our 26 Outlook uh in February.
Thank you, special.
Thank you. Next question, today, is coming from Brook Road from Sacramento. Line is now live.
Good morning, and thank you for taking our question, Scott. Joe, I'm hoping you could provide an update on where you stand on Project Genius, savings realization. What proportion of the greater than $100 million in savings has been realized to date? What's still on the horizon into Q4 and into 2026 as you mature into those savings? And how should we be thinking about the opportunity for flow-through to the bottom line as you contemplate continued investments into each of your core brands, including demand creation?
Yeah, hey Brooke. So for 2025 we've got about 50 million of gross savings uh embedded in the in the Outlook, that's above our previous expectation. So those savings compared to our initial Outlook. Have allowed us to reinvest back into the business at a level beyond what we, what we previously anticipated and those those Investments are certainly part of of the fuel that for the growth in the in the momentum that we're that we're seeing the, the benefits of Genius. Uh, and the Investments we've made. Like I said, they're fully reflected in the Outlook. We do expect those benefits to scale materially and in 2026 and reach the 100 million um of annual saving run rate. We will in reinvest a portion of those savings, but as we've said from the very beginning, a portion of these
Savings will be reinvested back into the business and a portion of these savings uh, will will drop to the bottom line um, and drive profitability and and and returns Improvement.
Great. And just a follow-up. I was hoping we could double-click on the lead China business. Are you fully reset in that business today? And do you expect that business to begin to return to growth as we turn the corner into 2026? Where are we in the transition?
Yeah, I'll start. I'll start, Brook. So, there's no change to the significant opportunity we see in China. Longer term, we're...
More confident in our approach going, forward than we've been over the past couple of years. We've, we've got a strong team on the ground there for the past, 18 months or so. We've been working to reestablish our foundation in China for Lee as part of the Brand's Global approach to the to the turnaround, our results have improved over the past year, but there's still more work to be done in this market remains, you know, very, very dynamic. As you know, the the actions we discussed in our prepared, remarks reflect the next set of initiatives. So, really strengthen our presence in the market and build a stronger Foundation going forward. So more specifically, we've been consolidating distribution Partners. We've been partnering with larger more sophisticated Partners in the market that can invest with us to build and drive the brand going forward. We've taken actions to address inventory.
Challenges in the market have prompted us to elevate our own DTC presence. So there are a number of things that we've been working on behind the scenes, but I'd say the majority of the heavy lifting is behind us from here.
About it and, uh, I kind of really liked the thought process and the strategy that's gone into it. So, we felt—and this is the point—we felt really confident to make this investment, and that's what drove that. We like the strategy; we like where it's heading. We're happy to make an investment to put them in really good footing, and then we move forward from there. So, I think that from the standpoint of what's happened here in the last, you know, five or six years with the whole world, that we're in a better place than we've been in China in a long time. I think the future looks bright.
Thanks so much. Best of luck going forward.
Thanks, bro.
Thank you. Next question is coming from the wrong best rescue from BMP Power. By your line, it is live.
Oh good morning, thank you very much for taking my question Joe I was hoping to get a little bit more color. Um um um again around uh FY 26. I I remember last year on the third quarter call uh you provided preliminary thoughts on a particularly on the top line. I think you mentioned 1 H25 should grow 4%, just curious to know. Is there any rationale? Why? Why? We're not getting any preliminary thoughts for 1 age? 26, Top Line on an organic basis and then, um, I think Scott you mentioned, um, Lee is not going to be linear, but how do we think about, uh, when should lie actually return to growth in all markets? Thank you.
Yeah. Hey, hey everyone, I'll start, good morning. Um, yeah, I'd say on on 26, I I gave the, you know, the the framework, if you will, I'd say this year versus last year, there are a few more moving pieces as, you know, um, and we're right in the middle of our of our planning process now. So we'll be back in February and give the, you know, the detailed Outlook as we as we normally do.
Um, Lauren, as for product flows and how we create and make product and go to market, I think our confidence is really building that late 2026, fall/winter 2026, you're going to see us even out and then start our growth algorithm right after that. So, feeling really good entering this year, feeling really good about how the product is going to flow in, and feeling really good about the product itself. That will go ahead and resonate with some stabilization by the end of the year and then growth by the end of the year and the beginning of the next year.
Okay, great helpful. And then, um, uh, so just one sticking point here, um, there's, you know, 78 cents of adjustments. It's actually larger than the actual GAAP EPS number. Curious to know, um, what the adjustments we should contemplate for. So what we can actually have our models button up for 42. What kind of adjustments should we have for 42? And one longer term, um, I think you mentioned the Brook, there's $50 million of gross savings from Project Junior. But when should we see the adjusted, the end GAAP EPS converge and of the $100 million?
How much of it actually flows through to the bottom line? Thank you very much.
Yep, I'll take that later on. So as we've discussed on on prior calls, we will have 1 time adjustments. As we move through project genius as we move through the acquisition of of heli Hansen. I think those are those are pretty typical. Given the transformational nature of those projects. I would say the cost to date have been in line with our with our expectations. The the 1 time adjustments that we saw in the third quarter, primarily related to the the closure of our toone manufacturing facility as well as the the integration of of heli Hansen on the on the sgna side. But you know look we we don't pay our bills with adjusted earnings. We don't pay our shareholders with adjusted cash so we're measuring the cash returns of genius and the Returns on on heli and our cash generation remains robust. We raised the cash flow outlook for 25 and we expect another year of strong cash generation in 26 and that includes the impact of the of the 1-time adjustments.
Thank you. Next question, is coming from Peter Moldrik from Steve. Your line is now live.
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I am interested on the cash flow guidance. Following up on laurance question. Uh, the the Step Up is significantly higher than the adjusted earnings increase in in the Outlook. So I'm curious if you can bridge the gap on working capital adjustments or any other items influencing the the Outlook to 400 million operating uh cash flow.
Uh it's really the working capital Peter. It's the sequential reduction in the in the inventory. In addition to the to the earnings growth for both. Uh the organic business as well as as well as hie
Consumption and inventory timing flow-through.
I'll take that, Peter. So, on Q3, we were up 80 basis points. Overall, 140 basis points, excluding Hely Hansen, for the organic piece. Mixed was about a 170 basis point benefit. That's channel mix, product mix, business mix. Our project Genius benefited gross margin by about 90 basis points, and then tariffs, net of our mitigating actions as well as higher product costs, hurt us by about 120 basis points for the fourth quarter. We've got 110 basis points contemplated for the organic business, which will be up modestly, with Genius and mix being offset by tariffs, net of the mitigating actions as well as higher product costs. So, the year-over-year increase in Q4 gross margin is primarily related to the mix, which will be nicely accretive for us in the fourth quarter.
Thank you. We have reached the end of our question and answer session. I’d like to turn the floor back over to Scott for any further closing comments.
Thank you. I just wanted to say a big thanks for spending time with us today and for all your thoughtful questions. As you can see, we're working really hard here, and our consumers are trusting us because they're choosing us going forward, which is really important. We certainly appreciate that. We've got a much broader story to tell as Helly Hansen unfolds, but I just wanted to mention that we couldn't be more pleased with our acquisition.
And how it's going and and, uh, really enjoy working with the team. There are really good team. And and it's been a, a really thoughtful, you know, merger of our 2 companies and and just going really well, which we'll spend some more time talking about going forward and uh because we won't spend any time together before the end of the year, want to wish everybody a happy holiday season. And we'll look forward to seeing you after the first of the year. But again, thanks for your interest in our company. We really appreciate it.
Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference webcast. Let me just connect your line at this time. Have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.