Q4 2025 Bunge Global SA Earnings Call

February 4, 2026

Speaker #1: the Bunge Global Essay 4th Quarter 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call. All participants will be in the listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero.

Speaker #1: After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad.

Speaker #1: To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mark Haden. Please go ahead.

Speaker #1: ahead. Great, thank you.

Mark Haden: Great. Thank you. Thank you for joining us this morning for our Q4 Earnings Call. Before we get started, I want to let you know that we have slides to accompany our discussion. These can be found at the Investor Center on our website at bunge.com under Events and Presentations. Reconciliations of our non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure are posted on our website as well. I'd like to direct you to slide 2 and remind you that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements that reflect Bunge's current view with respect to future events, financial performance, and industry conditions. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties.

Speaker #2: And thank you for joining us this morning for our fourth quarter earnings call. Before we get started, I want to let you know that we have slides to accompany our discussion.

Speaker #2: These can be found at the Investor Center on our website at bunge.com under Events and Presentations. Reconciliations of our non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure are posted on our website as well.

Mark Haden: These can be found at the Investor Center on our website at bunge.com under Events and Presentations. Reconciliations of our non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure are posted on our website as well. I'd like to direct you to slide 2 and remind you that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements that reflect Bunge's current view with respect to future events, financial performance, and industry conditions. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Bunge has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning factors that could cause actual results differently from those contained in this presentation. We encourage you to review these factors. On the call this morning are Greg Heckman, Bunge's Chief Executive Officer, and John Neppl, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Greg. Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone.

Q4 2025 Bunge Global SA Earnings Call

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Q4 2025 Bunge Global SA Earnings Call

Wednesday, February 4th, 2026 at 1:00 PM

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Greg Heckman: Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. I want to start this morning by thanking the team and recognizing their extraordinary work around the world, both throughout 2025 and as we move into 2026. This past year was one of execution, investment, and integration, all in a market environment that demanded agility and discipline. In 2025, we reached a major milestone with the completion of our Viterra combination. The integration work our teams accomplished has been exceptional, and we remain highly engaged and excited about the progress we're continuing to make together. Building on a foundation of cultures that were already aligned on doing what is right for customers, this combination brings both organizations together within our proven end-to-end value chain operating model, removing complexity and strengthening shared goals. As a result, we've increased connectivity and the flow of information across our combined organization, a crucial component to how we operate.

Mark Haden: I want to start this morning by thanking the team and recognizing their extraordinary work around the world, both throughout 2025 and as we move into 2026. This past year was one of execution, investment, and integration, all in a market environment that demanded agility and discipline. In 2025, we reached a major milestone with the completion of our Viterra combination. The integration work our teams accomplished has been exceptional, and we remain highly engaged and excited about the progress we're continuing to make together. Building on a foundation of cultures that were already aligned on doing what is right for customers, this combination brings both organizations together within our proven end-to-end value chain operating model, removing complexity and strengthening shared goals. As a result, we've increased connectivity and the flow of information across our combined organization, a crucial component to how we operate.

Mark Haden: As I've said before, it's our competitive advantage to have great people across the organization having the same information at the same time and working toward unified objectives. This alignment is already delivering results. We are unlocking synergies in origination, merchandising, processing, and distribution, optimizing flows between origin and destination, and capturing margin through improved logistics and better coordination. For example, previously, Viterra's origination activities in most regions would have been managed purely through a merchandising lens, leveraging a nimble platform built to operate on short lead times. Today, people managing the same network of elevators are now making decisions with a more complete picture of our global platform, taking an integrated view that balances speed with longer-term considerations. This not only allows us to keep our processing and refining plants running at high capacities but also results in more profitable outcomes for both farmers and consumers.

Greg Heckman: As I've said before, it's our competitive advantage to have great people across the organization having the same information at the same time and working toward unified objectives. This alignment is already delivering results. We are unlocking synergies in origination, merchandising, processing, and distribution, optimizing flows between origin and destination, and capturing margin through improved logistics and better coordination. For example, previously, Viterra's origination activities in most regions would have been managed purely through a merchandising lens, leveraging a nimble platform built to operate on short lead times. Today, people managing the same network of elevators are now making decisions with a more complete picture of our global platform, taking an integrated view that balances speed with longer-term considerations. This not only allows us to keep our processing and refining plants running at high capacities but also results in more profitable outcomes for both farmers and consumers.

Mark Haden: We have capabilities today that we didn't have before, and we're just getting started. These types of benefits are durable and will compound over time. We will provide more details on synergy capture, capital allocation priorities, and our combined long-term outlook at our Investor Day on March 10th. While we've been integrating Viterra, we've also been working to advance our large greenfield projects, navigating trade flows, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical volatility, all while staying focused on connecting farmers to end-market demand across food, feed, and fuel. Shifting to our operating performance, our Q4 reflected higher results in all our segments, driven by strong execution and our expanded footprint and capabilities. John will go into more details in a moment. Externally, the environment remains complex with limited forward visibility.

Greg Heckman: We have capabilities today that we didn't have before, and we're just getting started. These types of benefits are durable and will compound over time. We will provide more details on synergy capture, capital allocation priorities, and our combined long-term outlook at our Investor Day on March 10th. While we've been integrating Viterra, we've also been working to advance our large greenfield projects, navigating trade flows, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical volatility, all while staying focused on connecting farmers to end-market demand across food, feed, and fuel. Shifting to our operating performance, our Q4 reflected higher results in all our segments, driven by strong execution and our expanded footprint and capabilities. John will go into more details in a moment. Externally, the environment remains complex with limited forward visibility.

Mark Haden: Geopolitical tensions, evolving trade flows, and uncertainty around biofuel policy, particularly in the US, continue to influence farmer and consumer behavior. Based on what we can see today in the current environment and forward curves, we expect full-year 2026 Adjusted EPS in the range of $7.50 to $8. And with that, I'll turn it over to John for more details on our financials and outlook. Thanks, Greg. And good morning, everyone. Let's turn to the earnings highlights in slide 5. Our reported Q4 earnings per share was $0.49 compared to $4.36 in the Q4 of 2024. Our reported results included an unfavorable mark-to-market timing difference of $0.55 per share and an unfavorable impact of $0.95, primarily from notable items related to the settlement of our US Defined Benefit Pension Plan, Viterra transaction integration cost, and an impairment of a long-term investment.

Mark Haden: Prior results included a net positive impact of $0.98 from notable items, primarily related to the gain on the sale of our sugar and bioenergy joint venture, partially offset by Viterra transaction integration costs. Adjusted EPS was $1.99 in Q4, which included approximately $50 million of net tax benefits versus $2.13 in the prior year. Adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes, or EBIT, was $756 million in the quarter versus $546 million last year, with all segments showing higher year-over-year results. In the soybean processing and refining segment, slightly higher results were primarily driven by South America, reflecting higher processing and refining results in Argentina and Brazil. In the destination value chain, lower processing results in Europe and origination in the Americas were partially offset by improved results in Asia. Results in North America were lower in both processing and refining.

John Neppl: Prior results included a net positive impact of $0.98 from notable items, primarily related to the gain on the sale of our sugar and bioenergy joint venture, partially offset by Viterra transaction integration costs. Adjusted EPS was $1.99 in Q4, which included approximately $50 million of net tax benefits versus $2.13 in the prior year. Adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes, or EBIT, was $756 million in the quarter versus $546 million last year, with all segments showing higher year-over-year results. In the soybean processing and refining segment, slightly higher results were primarily driven by South America, reflecting higher processing and refining results in Argentina and Brazil. In the destination value chain, lower processing results in Europe and origination in the Americas were partially offset by improved results in Asia. Results in North America were lower in both processing and refining.

Mark Haden: Higher processing volumes were largely attributed to the company's expanded production capacity in Argentina. Higher merchandising volumes reflected the company's expanded soybean origination footprint. In the soft seeds processing and refining segment, higher results were primarily driven by better average processing margins and the addition of Viterra's soft seeds assets and capabilities. In North America, higher processing results were partially offset by lower results in refining. In Europe, results were higher in processing, biodiesel, but lower in refining. In Argentina, results were higher in processing and modestly higher in refining. Results in global soft seeds and global oils merchandising activities also increased, reflecting strong execution. Higher soft seeds processing volumes primarily reflected the company's increased production capacity in Argentina, Canada, and Europe. Higher merchandising volumes were driven by the company's expanded soft seeds origination footprint.

John Neppl: Higher processing volumes were largely attributed to the company's expanded production capacity in Argentina. Higher merchandising volumes reflected the company's expanded soybean origination footprint. In the soft seeds processing and refining segment, higher results were primarily driven by better average processing margins and the addition of Viterra's soft seeds assets and capabilities. In North America, higher processing results were partially offset by lower results in refining. In Europe, results were higher in processing, biodiesel, but lower in refining. In Argentina, results were higher in processing and modestly higher in refining. Results in global soft seeds and global oils merchandising activities also increased, reflecting strong execution. Higher soft seeds processing volumes primarily reflected the company's increased production capacity in Argentina, Canada, and Europe. Higher merchandising volumes were driven by the company's expanded soft seeds origination footprint.

Mark Haden: For other oilseeds processing and refining segment, improved results reflected stronger specialty oils performance in Asia and North America, along with higher global oils merchandising activity. Results in Europe were in line with the prior year. In the grain merchandising and milling segment, higher results were primarily driven by global wheat and barley, as well as wheat milling, partially offset by lower results in global corn, and ocean freight. Higher volumes were primarily reflected by the company's expanded grain handling footprint and capabilities, along with large global grain crops. Prior year results included corn milling, which was divested in Q2 2025. The increase in corporate expenses was primarily driven by the addition of Viterra.

John Neppl: For other oilseeds processing and refining segment, improved results reflected stronger specialty oils performance in Asia and North America, along with higher global oils merchandising activity. Results in Europe were in line with the prior year. In the grain merchandising and milling segment, higher results were primarily driven by global wheat and barley, as well as wheat milling, partially offset by lower results in global corn, and ocean freight. Higher volumes were primarily reflected by the company's expanded grain handling footprint and capabilities, along with large global grain crops. Prior year results included corn milling, which was divested in Q2 2025. The increase in corporate expenses was primarily driven by the addition of Viterra.

Mark Haden: Higher other results primarily reflected our captive insurance program, partially offset by $10 million of prior year income from the sugar and bioenergy joint venture that was divested in Q4 2024. Net interest expense of $176 million was up in the quarter compared to last year, reflecting the addition of Viterra, partially offset by lower average net interest rates. Let's turn to slide 6, where you can see our Adjusted EPS and EBIT trends over the past five years. The recent performance trends reflect less volatility due to a more balanced global supply and demand environment, particularly in grains, and the impact of ongoing trade and biofuel uncertainty that has created a very spot transactional market environment. Slide 7 details our capital allocation. For the full year, we have generated just over $1.7 billion of adjusted funds from operations.

John Neppl: Higher other results primarily reflected our captive insurance program, partially offset by $10 million of prior year income from the sugar and bioenergy joint venture that was divested in Q4 2024. Net interest expense of $176 million was up in the quarter compared to last year, reflecting the addition of Viterra, partially offset by lower average net interest rates. Let's turn to slide 6, where you can see our Adjusted EPS and EBIT trends over the past five years. The recent performance trends reflect less volatility due to a more balanced global supply and demand environment, particularly in grains, and the impact of ongoing trade and biofuel uncertainty that has created a very spot transactional market environment. Slide 7 details our capital allocation. For the full year, we have generated just over $1.7 billion of adjusted funds from operations.

Mark Haden: After allocating $485 million to sustaining CapEx, which includes maintenance, environmental health, and safety, we had approximately $1.25 billion of discretionary cash flow available. We paid $459 million in dividends and invested approximately $1.2 billion in growth and productivity-related CapEx. We received approximately $1.2 billion of cash proceeds from the sale of a variety of assets and businesses, and we also repurchased 6.7 million Bunge shares for $551 million. This resulted in $173 million of retained cash flow. Moving to slide 8. Year-end net debt, excluding readily marketable inventories, or RMI, was approximately $700 million. The recent change versus history reflects the impact of the acquisition debt assumed and issued related to Viterra. Our adjusted leverage ratio, which reflects our adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA, was 1.9 times at the end of Q4. Slide 9 highlights our liquidity position, which remains strong.

John Neppl: After allocating $485 million to sustaining CapEx, which includes maintenance, environmental health, and safety, we had approximately $1.25 billion of discretionary cash flow available. We paid $459 million in dividends and invested approximately $1.2 billion in growth and productivity-related CapEx. We received approximately $1.2 billion of cash proceeds from the sale of a variety of assets and businesses, and we also repurchased 6.7 million Bunge shares for $551 million. This resulted in $173 million of retained cash flow. Moving to slide 8. Year-end net debt, excluding readily marketable inventories, or RMI, was approximately $700 million. The recent change versus history reflects the impact of the acquisition debt assumed and issued related to Viterra. Our adjusted leverage ratio, which reflects our adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA, was 1.9 times at the end of Q4. Slide 9 highlights our liquidity position, which remains strong.

Mark Haden: At year-end, we had committed credit facilities of approximately $9.7 billion, of which approximately $9 billion was unused and available, providing ample liquidity to manage the ongoing capital needs of our larger combined company. Please turn to slide 10. For the trailing 12 months, adjusted ROIC was 8.1% and ROIC was 6.9%. Adjusting for construction and progress on our large multi-year projects and excess cash on our balance sheet, our adjusted ROIC would increase to 9.3% and ROIC to 7.5%. As a reminder from last quarter, we decreased both our weighted average cost of capital and adjusted weighted average cost of capital from 7% and 7.7% respectively to 6% and 6.7% respectively, reflecting the recent upgrade in our credit rating, change in capital structure of the combined company, and lower interest rate environment. Importantly, we're not lowering our long-term investment return expectations. Moving to slide 11.

John Neppl: At year-end, we had committed credit facilities of approximately $9.7 billion, of which approximately $9 billion was unused and available, providing ample liquidity to manage the ongoing capital needs of our larger combined company. Please turn to slide 10. For the trailing 12 months, adjusted ROIC was 8.1% and ROIC was 6.9%. Adjusting for construction and progress on our large multi-year projects and excess cash on our balance sheet, our adjusted ROIC would increase to 9.3% and ROIC to 7.5%. As a reminder from last quarter, we decreased both our weighted average cost of capital and adjusted weighted average cost of capital from 7% and 7.7% respectively to 6% and 6.7% respectively, reflecting the recent upgrade in our credit rating, change in capital structure of the combined company, and lower interest rate environment. Importantly, we're not lowering our long-term investment return expectations. Moving to slide 11.

Mark Haden: Additionally, we expect the following for 2026: an adjusted annual effective tax rate in the range of 23% to 27%, net interest expense in the range of $575 million to 625 million, capital expenditures in the range of $1.5 to $1.7 billion, and depreciation and amortization of approximately $975 million. With that, I'll turn things back over to Greg for some closing comments. Thanks, John. So before I go to Q&A, I want to just offer a few thoughts. Through our disciplined execution, portfolio optimization, and strategic investment, we've reshaped this company into a more agile, diversified, and resilient Bunge. We've overcome multiple obstacles, including geopolitical shifts that continue to reshape global trade flows. Yet through all of that, our team has executed, adapted, and delivered. Those experiences have only strengthened our confidence and our ability to succeed going forward.

Mark Haden: In the meantime, I'll close by saying, as we look ahead, I'm confident that the capabilities that we've built will allow us to deliver value in any environment while continuing to connect farmers to the markets to sustain communities and feed the world. With that, we'll turn to Q&A. Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Tom Palmer with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead. Thank you. And good morning, Greg and John.

Mark Haden: I know that your guidance does not take a view on how industry conditions might change, but I had a couple of questions here. One, I wonder to what extent you think the RVO might be reflected in the curve today. And then when we see soybean crush margins moving higher over the past month or so, has this had much impact on the margins that you are able to capture in your crush operations up to this point? Thanks. Sure. I'll start on that, John. So yeah, you're correct. Our outlook, we did not put any assumptions about what the RVO would do to the curves or the profitability beyond what the curves are already showing. Now, as you called out, we've definitely seen the US curves, especially in the second half, improve a little bit.

Mark Haden: And maybe just to add, Tom, that on top of, oil's certainly been up and down based on market expectations, but we've seen good steady demand for soybean meal. And I think that's a global phenomenon, but in the US as well, soybean meal demand's been strong. So that's at least helping from a crush perspective. Understood. Thank you. I had a question just on the cadence for the year. I think historically, earnings have been a bit more weighted to the second half of the year than the first half, but the composition of the business has obviously changed quite a bit here. So any thoughts on both kind of the earnings cadence as we think about this year and to what extent that might be reflective of what normal seasonality might look like in the business as we look forward? Thank you. Yeah.

Mark Haden: Tom, I think how we're looking at this year and I don't know that this is necessarily going to be indicative of the future, but just given where the forward curve sit today, we're looking at a first half, second half weighted more like a 30/70 this year, which is a little lighter first half than maybe what we typically see. And then even on the Q1, Q2, we're looking at a 35/65 type split. So absent the impact of RVO change in Q1, and really, we're going to be through the end of Q1 by the time that probably gets resolved, pretty light Q1. So 35/65 first half and 30/70 for the full year. Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Heather Jones with Heather Jones Research. Please go ahead. Good morning. Thanks for the question. Morning.

Mark Haden: I just wanted to just clarify one thing on the guidance. So typically, you guys use the forward curve to set your guidance and adjust that based on what you're seeing in the physical markets. Is that any different? Did you do anything different this time? Did you just take the curves and then make adjustments for what you're seeing as far as basis, etc., or just? Wanted to clarify that. Yeah, Heather, thanks for the question. Yeah, we're a little boring in our consistency. So yeah, we use the exact same approach that we've been because we just think that makes it easier to understand how we come at this each quarter. But yeah. Yeah. And I would just say, it's right now, obviously, we would expect once the RVO is finalized for the conditions to improve.

Mark Haden: You've had quite a bit of crush capacity added in North America, South America, but you have more constructive biofuel policy in Indonesia, Brazil, Europe. And if this is anything if the US is anything like Spintelegraph, it's going to be much more constructive in the US. So putting all that together, increased capacity, but much greater demand, do you envision a scenario where crush margins, both soft and soy, could replicate what we saw in the 22/23 timeframe? I know those are a lot of what-ifs, but just would love to get your thoughts on a scenario like that. Yep. No, you've called out a lot of the key things that we're seeing. There's no doubt, as John said, the takeaway on meal globally has been better than everyone expected.

Mark Haden: And part of that, I think, continues to be the growth we're seeing in protein demand, especially in chicken and the growth there. On the biofuel policy, no, you're exactly right. There are things happening kind of everywhere, whether it's the B15 in Brazil and eventually going to B16 later this year, we think. Indonesia does policy. They've shown the ability to continue to make changes there, to adapt what we're seeing in Germany on the RED III, and then, of course, our own biofuel policy here. But I think what you're seeing is that governments understand the biofuel policy; it's good for the farming community. It's good for all those communities. That value that starts at the farm gate then moves through the value chain. So I think we expect biofuel policy to continue to be constructive as far as comparing back to certain years.

Greg Heckman: And part of that, I think, continues to be the growth we're seeing in protein demand, especially in chicken and the growth there. On the biofuel policy, no, you're exactly right. There are things happening kind of everywhere, whether it's the B15 in Brazil and eventually going to B16 later this year, we think. Indonesia does policy. They've shown the ability to continue to make changes there, to adapt what we're seeing in Germany on the RED III, and then, of course, our own biofuel policy here. But I think what you're seeing is that governments understand the biofuel policy; it's good for the farming community. It's good for all those communities. That value that starts at the farm gate then moves through the value chain. So I think we expect biofuel policy to continue to be constructive as far as comparing back to certain years.

Mark Haden: I don't know that I can make that exact call today, but I think we feel it's definitely constructive. What we do like, and you asked about soft, is we have a much more balanced footprint globally, not only in soy, but in soft. And we've added a larger percentage of soft crush now. And of course, that is definitely favorable with the oil demand, and that will favor soft crush going forward. So we think our more balanced footprint there will be helpful for sure. Yeah. I might just add on, Heather. The other thing is we haven't really seen any meaningful global disruption, whether it's weather or geopolitical, here for a bit. I mean, there's been, obviously, the trade issues with China. But when you really think about a big shock to the global system, there really hasn't been one for a while.

Mark Haden: And a weather event could really have a big impact. And given our global footprint going forward, I think we feel like we're positioned as good or better than anyone to handle that. Okay. Thank you. Thank you. The next question comes from Andrew Strelzik with BMO. Please go ahead. Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I had a couple of things. The first one, just from an operational perspective, I was hoping that you could maybe compare the Viterra operations kind of at the time of the acquisition to when you guys took over the Bunge business. And I guess where I'm coming from is I'm curious if you see similar opportunities to kind of transform the earnings power of the Viterra piece separate of the synergies through internal operations, as has been the case at Bunge, or if there are any meaningful differences that you've observed.

Mark Haden: All the capital allocation is done from the center, and that's healthy for the teams to compete for that capital, aligning the rewards programs and staying focused externally on our customers at both ends of the value chain, and being able to do that from that global, diversified balance that we now have across crops, across geographies, and across origination, as well as crush and distribution. We've got more capillarity and granularity at origination and destination than we've ever had. And ultimately, you wrap all that in a risk culture. And I do think Bunge, when we joined, had incredible capabilities, as does Viterra. And it's been great. Our teams did a ton of work pre-close, and we hit the ground running on day one with one view of our global positions for the people to make decisions with. The teams have embraced the culture.

Greg Heckman: All the capital allocation is done from the center, and that's healthy for the teams to compete for that capital, aligning the rewards programs and staying focused externally on our customers at both ends of the value chain, and being able to do that from that global, diversified balance that we now have across crops, across geographies, and across origination, as well as crush and distribution. We've got more capillarity and granularity at origination and destination than we've ever had. And ultimately, you wrap all that in a risk culture. And I do think Bunge, when we joined, had incredible capabilities, as does Viterra. And it's been great. Our teams did a ton of work pre-close, and we hit the ground running on day one with one view of our global positions for the people to make decisions with. The teams have embraced the culture.

Mark Haden: I apologize if I missed this, but can you share what you're assuming in the guidance for synergies on the cost and commercial side and maybe how we should think about that phasing in within the kind of split you gave for EPS through the year? Thank you. Yeah, Andrew. This is John. So I would say on the cost side, which is what we've got baked into our forecast primarily, we're feeling very good about where we are. We're estimating about $190 million of realized synergies in 2026, which is actually ahead of schedule. When we look at what we laid out at the time we filed our proxy and laid out our expectation-driven synergies, we expected a second year, full year, about $175 million, roughly. We're actually going to do better than that in six months earlier.

Mark Haden: So we've taken a lot. We took some action ahead of close and actually started getting the organization structured and ready for the close of the transaction. So we had a bit of a head start coming into the close. And in 2025 and prior, we realized a little over $70 million of synergy already by the end of 2025. And so we're looking at $190 million for next year. For 2026, the year we're in now, with a run rate by the end of the year somewhere around $220 million run rate by the end of the year. So feel very good about that. Of course, that $190 million is baked into our forecast. On the commercial side, I think that's still developing. We've got line of sight to a lot of good things, but like anything, those ones are a little more difficult to quantify individually.

John Neppl: So we've taken a lot. We took some action ahead of close and actually started getting the organization structured and ready for the close of the transaction. So we had a bit of a head start coming into the close. And in 2025 and prior, we realized a little over $70 million of synergy already by the end of 2025. And so we're looking at $190 million for next year. For 2026, the year we're in now, with a run rate by the end of the year somewhere around $220 million run rate by the end of the year. So feel very good about that. Of course, that $190 million is baked into our forecast. On the commercial side, I think that's still developing. We've got line of sight to a lot of good things, but like anything, those ones are a little more difficult to quantify individually.

Mark Haden: But I would say a relatively modest amount of synergy baked into the forecast on the commercial side. Great. Thank you very much. Thank you. Our next question is from Salvatore Tiano with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Yes. Thank you very much. So I want to start a little bit with a synergy question. If I heard correctly, you said this year, we expect to realize $190 million or 90? 190. 190. So I guess this by our estimates is around 70 or 75 cents in EPS year-on-year growth. So how is the guidance, I guess, on the low end and frankly, even adjusting for the dividend, even on the high end, lower year-on-year? It seems a little bit counterintuitive since even without the RVOs, the operating environment seems to have been a little bit better for commodities trading, for biofuels.

Mark Haden: So does this imply essentially a material decline year-on-year before the synergies? And why would that be the case? Yeah. I have a little bit trouble hearing you, but I would look at it this way. We're going to have with the full year of Viterra, obviously, we have full-year impact of outstanding shares. We have full-year of interest cost, full-year of depreciation, some of those impacts, obviously. And I would say parts of the business that are yet to be performing as well as I think they could around grains and the merchandising business. I think going forward, we still have work to do there. But overall, I think, again, we're using the forward curves as they stand today. And I think that getting some clarity there and some upside will be some opportunity. But at this point, that's how we're seeing it.

Mark Haden: Of that 190 synergy, if you look versus 2025, there's 120 incremental. We did about 70 in 2025. So for your modeling, it's 120 incremental in 2026. Okay. Perfect. So that's extremely helpful. And the other thing I want to ask is a little bit about the cadence you provided earlier. It seems to us that this implies kind of $0.80 in Q1, $1.50 in Q2, and then around $2.70 in the second half. So my two questions are, firstly, $0.80 in Q1, that would be probably the lowest EPS figure in a long time. And theoretically, again, the idea is that the markets are a little bit better than they were at the trough of last year, get EPS much lower. So are there any specific items or segments that may be affected by timing, something that is pushing earnings away from Q1?

Mark Haden: The second part of the question is, if we're not really assuming a major improvement in the forward curves, in the guidance, how are we getting to around $2.70 in EPS in the second half in each of the quarters? And if the RVOs come, are we talking about $3.50 or even $4 at some point in quarterly EPS? Yeah. I think if you look, you're really close on, obviously, the first half, kind of the breakdown there in terms of per quarter. And then the second half, I think we're looking at about a 40, 60 on the second half at this point, but it's still way early. So a little difficult to predict that. But I think, look, a lot can happen. A lot of Q1s baked already. We're more than a month into Q1. I think that we're off to an okay start.

Mark Haden: And then you say, "Well, kind of how do you come out of Q4?" One, you got to thank the team for really executing very well in a quarter where you had really no market catalysts, heavy stocks. You've got the uncertainty around the bio and trade policy. So I think what we saw there is the team executed very well, even though with ample supplies, farmers don't want to sell at the lower prices. And your feed, food, and fuel customers haven't needed to buy because they've been rewarded for waiting. So that environment is definitely carrying over into Q1. Now, that being said, as in Q4, I think there's opportunities there that the team will execute well against it. The other kind of feature is the Australian harvest was delayed somewhat by weather. That's now definitely an important feature of us.

Mark Haden: So as you look through the opportunities in the business, in the combined business, and we talk about the merchandising, maybe ocean freight, etc., how should we think about the 2026 setup here? And what's kind of a level of disruption or activity that you need in this business to really make the most out of the larger footprint that you're having? Yeah. I'd start by reminding us, right? We've got six months under our belt running it together. So we're looking forward to the first half as it's a very seasonal business. We'll get to see Q1 and Q2 with the combined platform, and then we'll start lapping the time that we ran together in the second half of last year. So look, the teams are continuing to adjust and do the scenario analysis for a number of things that can happen.

Mark Haden: But there is that important baseload business, right? Serving customers every day. We've got the geographical balance. We should have the absolute best cost position to be there with the right product, the right quantity, the right quality at the right price. So we'll do that baseload business and then adjust to whatever disruptions. And we've already seen some of that where we've had to repair origins and destinations and where we've actually had to develop some new destinations because of some of the trade disruptions. So I think that becomes standard part of the business. And as you called out as well, ocean freight, we've combined that group. We're a very large user, of course, of the ocean freight. We're starting to see the benefits of that larger platform and some of that lowering the cost between origin and destination and being able to react faster to change.

Greg Heckman: But there is that important baseload business, right? Serving customers every day. We've got the geographical balance. We should have the absolute best cost position to be there with the right product, the right quantity, the right quality at the right price. So we'll do that baseload business and then adjust to whatever disruptions. And we've already seen some of that where we've had to repair origins and destinations and where we've actually had to develop some new destinations because of some of the trade disruptions. So I think that becomes standard part of the business. And as you called out as well, ocean freight, we've combined that group. We're a very large user, of course, of the ocean freight. We're starting to see the benefits of that larger platform and some of that lowering the cost between origin and destination and being able to react faster to change.

Mark Haden: So I think part of it's just getting the reps, getting to fewer systems and processes, and having the teams continue to make those improvements. So whatever the environment, we know it will improve eventually. But until it does, I know our team will get all of the benefit that we can out of it. And Ben, maybe I'd just add. I mean, for Q4, we only had a $30 million increase year-over-year in the segment. And I think as you look into 2026, you should see a better year-over-year improvement, especially in the first half, obviously, when we don't have the comps against the prior Bunge only. But even in the second half, we expect the comps to be better versus the combined company second half. So it's moving the right direction. It's just, that's the biggest part of Viterra's business.

Mark Haden: If we take the midpoint here, just a little bit lower, I suspect the sustaining CapEx goes a little bit up, but it's probably still going to be roughly $1 billion in growth investments. So how should we think about the return on investments here, that $1 billion-plus last year, probably another $1 billion this year? What's the return you're expecting from that, and especially the timing of those returns? Yeah. Let me start with maybe talk about the mega projects. So our spend on mega projects, so the four large capital projects that we've the multi-year projects, that spend is going to drop about $350 million in 2026 as we finish kind of get to the completion dates on the projects. So that's about $600 to 650 million on the mega projects that will be largely wrapped up by the end of the year.

Mark Haden: We have not modeled in really much, if any, contribution from those projects. So the Morristown plant is in commissioning now and will be running this year. Obviously, a lot of the time this year is going to be spent on qualifying the plant for our food customers. We will get some volume through there, but probably not high enough capacity utilization to have a meaningful contribution in 2026. So we've not really added much in the forecast for that. And then our Destrehan barge unloading and crush plant expansion, remember, the crush plant's in the joint venture with Chevron. And then the barge unloading, those will be up mid-year. And of course, we don't have a lot baked into the forecast on a contribution in 2026 for those either. I think they'll really be hit they'll really be contributing a lot more as we get into 2027.

John Neppl: We have not modeled in really much, if any, contribution from those projects. So the Morristown plant is in commissioning now and will be running this year. Obviously, a lot of the time this year is going to be spent on qualifying the plant for our food customers. We will get some volume through there, but probably not high enough capacity utilization to have a meaningful contribution in 2026. So we've not really added much in the forecast for that. And then our Destrehan barge unloading and crush plant expansion, remember, the crush plant's in the joint venture with Chevron. And then the barge unloading, those will be up mid-year. And of course, we don't have a lot baked into the forecast on a contribution in 2026 for those either. I think they'll really be hit they'll really be contributing a lot more as we get into 2027.

Mark Haden: And then the final project is the Wesson plant in Netherlands that will be up and running for the most part early 2027. So not a lot of contribution from those in 2026, but we should see a bump up in 2027 relative to that spend. We've earmarked a few hundred million for other growth projects in 2026 to round out the billion-dollar rough number. Those haven't all been approved, and we'll review those as we go and may or may not decide to do those. But we've got that included in the forecast. That's why we have a range of $1.5 to $1.7. If we did all of that, we'd be closer to $1.7. If we choose not to do some of those projects, we'll be closer to $1.5. And those, obviously, anything we're constructing during 2026 likely wouldn't have a meaningful impact on 2026 returns. Got it.

John Neppl: And then the final project is the Wesson plant in Netherlands that will be up and running for the most part early 2027. So not a lot of contribution from those in 2026, but we should see a bump up in 2027 relative to that spend. We've earmarked a few hundred million for other growth projects in 2026 to round out the billion-dollar rough number. Those haven't all been approved, and we'll review those as we go and may or may not decide to do those. But we've got that included in the forecast. That's why we have a range of $1.5 to $1.7. If we did all of that, we'd be closer to $1.7. If we choose not to do some of those projects, we'll be closer to $1.5. And those, obviously, anything we're constructing during 2026 likely wouldn't have a meaningful impact on 2026 returns.

Mark Haden: Thank you very much. Thank you. The next question comes from Steven Haynes with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. A lot's been covered. Maybe just another way on the guidance. I think in the past, you've provided some directional, I guess, guide by segment. I realize it's maybe a bit harder just given the first half of last year doesn't have Viterra in it, and this year has a full contribution. But is there a way that maybe you could frame by segment, working back from the midpoint of your guide, whatever Adjusted EBIT is kind of assumed at that level, how you see that splitting out between each of your businesses this year? Thank you. Yeah. Yeah. So if you look Steven, this is John.

John Neppl: Yeah. Yeah. So if you look Steven, this is John. If you look at kind of our core segment EBIT, so that's defined as the segment results before corporate. I'd look at it this way. About half that EBIT is going to be in our soy processing and refining, is how we're looking at it for the year. So. Call that 50%. About a quarter of it in our soft processing and refining segment. And then grain merchandising and milling, we're forecasting to be around 20% of it. And then the remaining 5% would be in our other processing, refining. That's kind of how we see the rough forecast for the year. And then, of course, offsetting that to some degree will be the corporate and other, which we would expect to be call it $120, $125 million per quarter negative against that.

Mark Haden: If you look at kind of our core segment EBIT, so that's defined as the segment results before corporate. I'd look at it this way. About half that EBIT is going to be in our soy processing and refining, is how we're looking at it for the year. So. Call that 50%. About a quarter of it in our soft processing and refining segment. And then grain merchandising and milling, we're forecasting to be around 20% of it. And then the remaining 5% would be in our other processing, refining. That's kind of how we see the rough forecast for the year. And then, of course, offsetting that to some degree will be the corporate and other, which we would expect to be call it $120, $125 million per quarter negative against that. Okay. Thank you. Appreciate all the help detail. Thank you.

Mark Haden: But we're hopeful they'll at least start at the midpoint of the range and maybe go up from there, especially given that it appears, and pretty likely that the half-RIN, the 50% RIN, is not going to take effect in 2026. They're going to kick that can down the road to 2027 and make a decision then. So hopefully, given that decision, they'll move to the high side of this range of 5.2 to 5.6. But we obviously don't know yet and hoping here over the next few weeks to get some clarity. You're able to tip your crystal balls right on the 5.6 side. But maybe on a similar topic, so I read in a recent trade article that Bunge was recognized as the first company to certify soybeans for use in the production of SAF under the CORSIA Plus protocol.

Mark Haden: To the degree that you can, could you speak to that market opportunity for Bunge from this development, given the favorable price realization for SAF over RD and the tightness we're seeing in qualified feedstocks for SAF? Yeah. Look, I think we don't have anything baked into our forecast for that. So anything that develops during the year is going to be upside for us. I think it's still a fairly nascent market, at least from the way we've participated up to this point, but certainly is going to be incremental demand. It could be massive incremental demand if it really gets rolling. But we work a lot with the end fuel customers. We've got relationships with all the large fuel producers, and those that produce jet fuel. So we're optimistic that as that gains some traction, we'll be right there to participate.

Mark Haden: So really excited about the combined capabilities of the company and definitely want to be the partner of choice for the fuel industry. Great. Thank you. Thank you. The next question comes from Matthew Blair with TPH. Please go ahead. Great. Thanks for taking my question. So for the $750 to $8 guide, you mentioned you're just taking the current futures curve. As we think about the spread there, the low end versus the high end, what determines that? Is that just based on Bunge's execution? What puts you at the low end of that guide, and what puts you at the high end? Thank you. Yeah. I'll start, John. Sure. Go ahead. I think how we see the market continue to develop from a demand standpoint, we talked about the soy stocks are definitely heavy, but we have seen that's only in the US.

Mark Haden: Merch and milling, we'll see how, as we have that first half of the year running the combined footprint. And as the crops come off here in Australia, as some of the trade disruption that we've had, we really expect it to be not as complicated as last year. That should be good for our merchandising segment from an overall. The other is just we continue to work not only on the cost synergies, as John said, kind of trying to deliver more and faster. And then the commercial synergies, as we're on the front end, as the teams work together, as those plans continue to develop, those could continue to benefit us in the second half. So I think the combined platform, we've just got more levers to pull on both the cost as well as the margin side than we've ever had.

Greg Heckman: Merch and milling, we'll see how, as we have that first half of the year running the combined footprint. And as the crops come off here in Australia, as some of the trade disruption that we've had, we really expect it to be not as complicated as last year. That should be good for our merchandising segment from an overall. The other is just we continue to work not only on the cost synergies, as John said, kind of trying to deliver more and faster. And then the commercial synergies, as we're on the front end, as the teams work together, as those plans continue to develop, those could continue to benefit us in the second half. So I think the combined platform, we've just got more levers to pull on both the cost as well as the margin side than we've ever had.

Mark Haden: So while we've got some more balance in Argentina on the sunflower crush side, and we've had good crops there, in the second half, I think if we can get a good sunflower crop, that should be improvements in Black Sea and Europe for sunflower crushing. So those are some of the flags, I guess, some of the bigger issues that we're watching develop. Sounds good. And for the follow-up, so renewable diesel margins in the US are already moving up quite a bit in Q1. Are there any signs in your system yet on a larger pull for soybean oil from the renewable diesel space, any signs that US renewable diesel utilization is stepping up as these margins improve? We're seeing some modest pull. But honestly, I mean, stocks continue to build in oil.

John Neppl: We're seeing some modest pull. But honestly, I mean, stocks continue to build in oil. I think until we get clarity and the producers have certainty, we're still going to see stocks build. But as we look at the model and we look at the demand, it could turn very quickly. And we could go from a surplus oil environment today where we're building stocks to a very tight market very quickly. And our expectation would be if we get to the 5.2 or 5.6, depending on even under either those scenarios, there's going to be substantial pull on soybean oil. Canola oil, soybean stocks along with the domestic low CI, and we'll see things tighten up fairly quickly. Obviously, everybody's kind of waiting to see what's going to happen. Yeah, there's starting to be some anticipation of that, but not anywhere near what we will expect once things are finalized.

Mark Haden: I think until we get clarity and the producers have certainty, we're still going to see stocks build. But as we look at the model and we look at the demand, it could turn very quickly. And we could go from a surplus oil environment today where we're building stocks to a very tight market very quickly. And our expectation would be if we get to the 5.2 or 5.6, depending on even under either those scenarios, there's going to be substantial pull on soybean oil. Canola oil, soybean stocks along with the domestic low CI, and we'll see things tighten up fairly quickly. Obviously, everybody's kind of waiting to see what's going to happen. Yeah, there's starting to be some anticipation of that, but not anywhere near what we will expect once things are finalized. Great. Thanks for your comments.

Mark Haden: And we're going to discuss that more on Investor Day, certainly, as we provide more of a forward outlook. But this machine should generate a lot of cash going forward. And our view is that return to shareholders is going to be a more critical part of our ongoing capital allocation as we move forward. But we'll highlight more details on that in March. My second question is, when you look at the street for Q1, it's like 176. Your guidance is implying 80. Where do you think the street is getting it so wrong versus what you are guiding? Why is the street almost double where you are in terms of your guidance? Yeah. I think it's difficult to say maybe at this point other than maybe understanding the velocity of what we're seeing, that maybe the RVO impact would start getting traction in Q1.

Mark Haden: And where we've got a big global machine to run with a lot of long lead times, all those things are favorable. So I think we had to look at the things that could kind of tip to negative or positive. I think we feel things are maybe more bent to the positive when you roll them all up. So I hope that was clear. Thank you. Thank you. The next question is from Pooran Sharma with Stephens Inc. Please go ahead. Hi. Good morning. And thanks for the question. Just wanted to start off and get a little bit more granularity into the commercial synergy opportunity. I think you mentioned a few details on the call, but was just wondering, what are the opportunities that you've kind of uncovered, and what are some of the things that you're working on? Anything kind of higher level would be helpful. Thanks.

Mark Haden: And then even if you take something like and talk about our soft-seed crushing platform, I talked about we're much more balanced not only on our seed origination and global merchandising, where we've seen a number of opportunities with some of the trade disruptions to be able to continue to get farmer seed to market and find the right demand, but also on the meal, on the sunflower meal and the canola and rapeseed meal, where when we look at the combined footprint, we've been able to connect origins and destinations that weren't connected before. And then as some of those trade lanes were shut off and were not economical, we've even developed some new markets that didn't exist before that weren't using some of these products. And so we've been able to grow those markets.

Greg Heckman: And then even if you take something like and talk about our soft-seed crushing platform, I talked about we're much more balanced not only on our seed origination and global merchandising, where we've seen a number of opportunities with some of the trade disruptions to be able to continue to get farmer seed to market and find the right demand, but also on the meal, on the sunflower meal and the canola and rapeseed meal, where when we look at the combined footprint, we've been able to connect origins and destinations that weren't connected before. And then as some of those trade lanes were shut off and were not economical, we've even developed some new markets that didn't exist before that weren't using some of these products. And so we've been able to grow those markets.

Mark Haden: And it's just the combined capabilities as we get the repetitions to continue to peel those opportunities back. And just the way the teams are working together, I just couldn't be more pleased. And I've had the opportunity to do a lot of travel around and visit plants, visit the offices, and visit ports. And it's fantastic to go into a room and nobody says, "I was Viterra. I was Bunge." It's just everybody's Bunge. The teams are excited about the capabilities that we've got in this global platform and what we can do to serve our customers to work together. And there's no lack of challenges in the world right now, but I don't think anybody is better equipped than Bunge to deal with it. Thank you. Again, if you have a question, please press star, then one. We have no further questions, ladies and gentlemen.

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